SB Nation - Kemba Walker

Why John Wall could be bad for college basketball

SFBE.NF — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 05:39:02 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

When Carmelo Anthony was a freshman at Syracuse, and captivated the nation by single-handedly bringing the 2003 NCAA National Championship to upstate New York, there were no blogs, Billy Edelin was a budding star, and my thoughts on the state of college basketball took a back seat to my careful planning of clandestine meetings replete with hard alcohol to be shared among my high school friends.

But now I am older, blog on an aging laptop, get drunk with my parents, and am realizing that John Wall is severely exposing a sad truth: the overall talent on display in college basketball is unimpressive.

Tonight Wall put up 25 points along with six steals in a fantastic win over UCONN, all part of an electrifying atmosphere at MSG. The problem here is Wall has come in to poop on his peers for one season, all with the intent of peacing to the pros come springtime, forgetting that college basketball even exists. It stinks, but has just become part of the deal for us fans.

Do you remember that incredible class of 2007? Freshman Michael Beasley and Kevin Love were first-team All-Americans, Derrick Rose dominated the second and third weekends of the tournament, and Eric Gordon led the Big 10 in scoring. Just one year before that, Kevin Durant casually averaged 29 points-per-game during conference play and logged 20 games of 30 points or more. Meanwhile, Greg Oden showed up in Columbus for just two-thirds of the season and led the Buckeyes to the title game against Florida. Each one of these players, as you know, came to college for one season with no interest in returning for a second taste. And the whole gig was far too easy for them.

We're relying on 17- and 18-year-old players to generate the majority of excitement and hype for this great sport. You know there was another explosive point guard on the floor tonight? His name was Kemba Walker, a sophomore. Nobody seemed to care. After being ignored by his teammates for the first 25 minutes of the game, Patrick Patterson showed he's one of the country's best big men. But he's a junior, which is so "out" this season. Why aren't we looking to market the players we know are in this relationship for the long run?

If the NCAA bigwigs are watching, I hope they recognize their brand of basketball is in trouble. They need to get on the phone with The League and have a say in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Somehow, someway, we need to ensure that blue chip freshman committing to play college basketball stick around for two seasons. That's all I ask. If they can't summon themselves to do that, then effyou! Go play in Europe, wait to turn 20 and get drafted by the Sacramento Kings, a dismal franchise never seen on national television.

We need help, because Blue Jesus and his disciples will continue to betray fans of the college game.

Kentucky 64, Connecticut 61 -- Postmortem

Truzenzuzex — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 05:29:51 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Josh Harrellson made one good play tonight, and this is it.

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What. A. Game.

We may be saying that a lot this year. I have no idea why, but at no time during this game did I ever worry about losing. Why? I can only suppose that perhaps John Wall is the reincarnation of the Buddha, and all I can think of is Zen.

Great effort by the Connecticut Huskies. They were what we knew they would be -- tough and determined. Jerome Dyson was incredible, Kemba Walker was amazing, Gavin Edwards outplayed everybody on both teams -- except one. John Wall. The Huskies were awesome, just amazing, but not amazing enough this time.

For Kentucky, well, we saw exactly what John Calipari implied we should see -- a really bad team having really good stretches because of their talent. Once again, UK had one more good stretch in this game than the opponent, a now-familiar theme for the 2009 Wildcats.

I have to confess, I really wanted Calipari to go zone. But as he has said, and perhaps I should acquiesce to (not a chance), "I am the coach, let me do my job." Okay, Coach, but forgive me if I sit in my armchair and disagree. It's what we do here in the Bluegrass State, and if you are going to kanoodle the job here at Kentucky, this is just another part of what you have so enthusiastically embraced. Deal with it.

Moving along, I was not concerned going in down six to the Huskies at the half. I want to stop right there and ask you all, ladies and gentlemen of the Big Blue Nation -- when was the last time you could have imagined that we could go into half time down six points versus the UConn Huskies in Madison Square Garden and not be concerned? It has been a very, very long time, certainly the better part of a decade at least. That, in and of itself, is a wonderful thing.

More after the jump.

Here are the things that jump out at me:

Bad Cuz, Good Cuz, all in the same game. Nothing to see here. Move along.
John Wall. Well, what can you say? He was pretty good, but then, he always is. But he had a stretch in the first half where he looked very much like the freshman he is.
Patrick Patterson -- Warrior of warriors. I have no idea how severe his ankle sprain is, but I get the impression he would have gone back in with a compound fracture -- he was going to make sure this game was won, and physical maladies be damned. And largely because of his leadership, the 'Cats did win.
Eric Bledsoe had an off night, particularly defensively. It wasn't lack of effort, really, just lack of experience. He will get a lot better, and his effort was very good.
Darius Miller just took a step back tonight. He didn't look confident, his shot was flat, and the more he missed, the worse he played. But he had a great game defensively against Stanley Robinson, who was almost never a factor.
Darnell Dodson made a couple of big shots, but he played abysmally overall, particularly on defense. He is much better than that.
Daniel Orton did what he always does -- play harder than anybody. This time, he fouled out. He will have better days, and this day was better than it looked.
Ramon Harris is such a great effort player, but he sure does need some kind of offensive game. Big free throw at the end, though. And a ton of rebounds.
Josh Harrellson made one good play and then laid down flat. C'mon, Josh, you can do this.
Perry Stevenson gave some good minutes, and did what he was in there to do.
Are the oddsmakers any good or what? They had UK +2. Scary.
That 12-0 run showed what could happen, just like the 28-2 run last week did. If the 'Cats can ever learn to sustain the effort, look out Indianapolis.
Calipari did a great job. Then again, John Wall can make an average coach look like a genius. Fortunately, he didn't have to tonight.
Where the heck did our offensive rebounding go? On vacation to Hawaii, apparently.

That's it. It's late. I'm finishing up a taste of Four Roses for a nightcap. Up next -- the Hoosiers.

Kentucky @ UConn: Pre-Game Analysis

Truzenzuzex — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:47:57 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

Which DeMarcus Cousins will show up tonight?

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Tonight, the Kentucky Wildcats will face the Connecticut Huskies in Madison Square Garden in the SEC-Big East Invitational.

Kentucky has only played UConn twice in its history, the first time being back in 2006 where the #2 ranked Huskies defeated Kentucky 87-83 in a closer than expected game.

This time, the Wildcats are ranked #4 in the land by the AP and the coaches, and UConn is ranked #14 and #12, respectively. Because of the proximity of Madison Square Garden to UConn, they will be the home team for this contest.

The Huskies are fairly young, but not nearly as young as the Wildcats. As far as experience goes, this UConn team is similar to the North Carolina Tar Heels. Also similar to the Tar Heels, this UConn team has plenty of size, and is also one of the few teams that can match up with the Wildcats on the front line. The interesting thing is, UConn can also match up with UK in the back court, size-wise.

The Huskies are 6-1 coming into this game, and Kentucky 8-0, but there is no doubt who has played the more difficult schedule of the two. Even with the addition of the UNC game, Kentucky has played far weaker opponents than UConn, who has played a good Hofstra team, LSU, and Duke. In fact, the Huskies lost to Duke by 9 in a game that saw them turn the ball over almost twice as many times as the Blue Devils, and get handled on the offensive glass to boot.

But UConn also thrashed LSU in a game in which their two starting guards looked like John Wall on the loose, making shots, dunks and layups from everywhere.

More after the jump.

Four Factors Analysis

As before, we will analyze what the results of this display means in detail. Please note that we won't be doing this for every single game this year, because creating all this is quite a bit of work. But particularly for the big games, you'll be getting this display and a detailed analysis of what it means.

First off, we notice that offensively, UConn is simply not as efficient as Kentucky. Much of that efficiency, though, can be attributed to the Wildcats' weak schedule, but even against the Tar Heels, you can see that UK's offensive efficiency is significantly higher than UConn's has been in their last three games.

Defensively, the teams are much closer, essentially mirror images of each other if you discount the first game or two of the season. If all is taken into consideration, UConn is somewhat better in DE, but I think that is mostly a result of their better defensive start and a tribute to the fact that they have a couple of seniors in the starting lineup.

Moving on to the Four Factors themselves, you will note that UK is more efficient offensively, a better offensive rebounding team and about the same when it comes to free-throw rate -- both teams get to the line a lot. UConn is noticeably better when it comes to taking care of the ball, and you can see by the green bar that UK has a long way to go to be top-ten caliber in that department.

Checking out the defense, both teams are decent at holding teams to low percentages with UConn being a bit better than the Cats. Kentucky forces more opponent turnovers and as previously noted, is a better rebounding team. UK does let teams get to the line more often than UConn.

Amazingly, Kentucky is a better three-point shooting team than UConn. The Wildcats figured to be average at best in that stat this year, but Darius Miller and Darnell Dodson, along with Patrick Patterson, have done a good job filling that void. UK also takes more 3-pointers than UConn does, and both teams play at track-meet tempo. No surprise there.

Next, we'll look at the players for the Huskies, and their stats:

Connecticut Huskies Basketball Roster

	#	Pos.	Comments	W	H	College
Kyle Bailey	55	G	-	170	6-3	junior
Donnell Beverly	2	G	-	190	6-4	sophomore
Jamal Coombs-McDaniel	4	F	-	210	6-7	freshman
Jerome Dyson	11	G	Starter	190	6-4	senior
Gavin Edwards	33	F	May start	230	6-10	senior
Alex Hornat	22	F	-	205	6-5	senior
Ater Majok	5	F	-	233	6-11	freshman
Jonathan Mandeldove	32	C	-	240	7-0	senior
Charles Okwandu	35	C	May Start	255	7-0	junior
Alex Oriakhi	34	F	Starter	240	6-9	freshman
Stanley Robinson	21	F	Starter	220	6-9	senior
Darius Smith	24	G	-	168	6-1	freshman
Jamaal Trice	13	G	-	220	6-5	freshman
Kemba Walker	15	G	Starter	172	6-1	sophomore

Connecticut Statistics

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Jerome Dyson	7	34.4	6.3	16.4	38.3	1.0	3.9	25.9	6.6	9.0	73.0	1.4	4.1	5.6	5.3	3.0	1.6	1.1	3.1	20.1
Stanley Robinson	7	34.3	6.4	12.0	53.6	0.6	0.9	66.7	2.0	3.6	56.0	2.7	4.4	7.1	1.7	1.4	0.7	1.9	1.1	15.4
Kemba Walker	7	34.0	5.0	11.1	44.9	1.4	2.6	55.6	4.0	5.1	77.8	0.6	2.6	3.1	5.7	3.1	2.7	0.9	1.1	15.4
Gavin Edwards	7	30.3	4.3	6.0	71.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0	3.1	95.5	2.3	3.4	5.7	0.6	1.7	1.0	3.3	2.7	11.6
Alex Oriakhi	7	31.4	2.6	5.6	46.2	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.9	2.1	40.0	3.1	6.6	9.7	0.4	1.4	0.6	1.7	3.1	6.0
Jamal Coombs-McDaniel	7	11.7	0.9	3.3	26.1	0.6	2.3	25.0	1.7	2.4	70.6	0.7	1.4	2.1	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.1	4.0
Darius Smith	7	5.7	0.4	1.1	37.5	0.1	0.3	50.0	0.7	1.3	55.6	0.3	0.6	0.9	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.4	1.7
Donnell Beverly	7	8.3	0.7	1.7	41.7	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.3	50.0	0.0	1.1	1.1	1.3	0.4	0.3	0.0	0.4	1.6
Charles Okwandu	7	6.4	0.4	0.6	75.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.9	0.7	1.6	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.9	1.9	0.9
Jamaal Trice	6	3.3	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.5	66.7	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.3
Alex Hornat	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kyle Bailey	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Position Analysis: Point guard

The starting point guard for the Huskies is Kemba Walker. Walker was the #5 ranked point guard nationally in 2008 out of New York City, and was heavily recruited by almost everyone. Walker is excellent at getting to the rim as you saw if you watched any of the LSU v. UConn game. Walker simply blew by LSU defenders on the way to 20 points in a blowout win.

Like Larry Drew II of North Carolina, Kemba Walker is knock-down three-point shooter, making 55% of his attempts so far this season. Even though UConn does not shoot a ton of threes, when it is Walker doing the shooting, they normally go in.

The knock on Walker so far has been his inability to avoid turnovers. Even though he is averaging over five assists/game, he is also averaging three turnovers, which is short of the magic 2/1 number. Walker is also a good-but-not-great on-ball defender, and if John Wall is his assignment, that can't be good.

As far as wall is concerned, he is far superior to Walker (and anyone else, for that matter) in speed with the ball in his hands. Walker, like Drew, will struggle to stay in front of John Wall, although Walker is more athletic than Drew. You can be assured that Jim Calhoun will do whatever he can to minimize the chances of Wall's one-man fast breaks.

Advantage: Kentucky

Position Analysis: Shooting guard

Jerome Dyson is the starting shooting guard for the Huskies, and he is a good one. Dyson has good size at 6'4", and has all the experience that being a senior at UConn brings, which includes trips to the Final Four.

Dyson is a nice compliment to Walker in that Dyson is not a true off-guard, but more of a combo guard, and that shows up in his 5 assists/game statistics. Dyson is a very aggressive defender and like Walker, works hard to get to the rim. He has not shot the ball particularly well from the perimeter this year, but he is capable of doing so.

This will be a tough matchup for Eric Bledsoe, as Dyson is explosive off the bounce and has a slight size advantage. Bledsoe plays bigger than he is, which will help, but Dyson will be by far the biggest challenged he has faced, offensively and defensively, this year

Advantage: UConn

Position Analysis: Small Forward

Stanley Robinson is UConn's starter at the small forward spot and the team's leading scorer along with Kemba Walker. Robinson is a senior who, like Dyson, has been there and done that when it comes to big games.

Robinson can do it all -- slash, shoot the three, hit the mid-range shot. Robinson pefers to operate inside and use his almost-power-forward body to post up his foes or muscle them for the put-back. Robinson is a tough, savvy defender and is capable of scoring a lot of points in short order.

Unlike versus Will Graves, Darius Miller will not have a quickness or size advantage on Stanley Robinson. Robinson is an older, wiser, and frankly better version of Miller right now. This matchup will be a huge challenge for Darius Miller on both sides of the ball.

Advantage: UConn

Position analysis: Power Forward

Alex Oriakhi is UConn's starter at the power forward spot. Oriakhi is a freshman from New Hampshire and was ranked as the 21st best power forward in the land by Rivals.com.

Oriakhi is not a big scorer. He is mostly in the game for defense and rebounding, although he is a strong finisher around the rim when he gets the ball in the post. Oriakhi leads UConn in rebounding with 9 per game, and he is also an outstanding post defender.

If Oriakhi winds up going against Patrick Patterson, as I would expect, this is the biggest mismatch problem for UConn. Patterson is much too quick, to strong and too agile for Oriakhi, as well as being far more experienced. Oriakhi does not have either the footspeed nor quickness to stay with Patterson on the break, or if Patrick decides to do his scoring from outside. Inside or out, Oriakhi will have his hands full.

Advantage: Kentucky

Position Analysis: Center

I expect Charles Okwandu to start at center tonight to counter the strength and size of the Wildcats. Okwandu is a junior and has had plenty of experience in Jim Calhoun's system. Okwandu is from Lagos, Nigeria, and although he is very tall and big at 7' and 255#, he is not a particularly good rebounder.

Okwandu is a junior college transfer from Harcum College in Pennsylvania, and is the least highly regarded of all the UConn starters. He is a big body who can take up space, but he isn't much of an offensive threat.

The other possibility is that Gavin Edwards will start. Edwards is a senior from Arizona, and has good size and who would probably play the power forward spot, moving Oriakhi to the center position. Edwards is a skilled post defender and a genuine offensive threat inside. He does not shoot the ball from the perimeter, but is a good leaper and good finisher at the rim. Edwards leads the team in blocked shots at over 3 per game.

No matter who starts, neither of the guys who are likely to wind up in the post are good enough to contain DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins is much to quick and athletic for Okwandu, and is just a better player than Orikahi. But a lot depends on whether or not Bad Cuz shows up.

Advantage: Kentucky

Bench Analysis

Connecticut has a deep, talented bench much like Kentucky, but unlike the Tar Heels, they are much smaller. UConn has plenty of good guards like Donell Beverly and Darius Smith who can come in and spell Walker and Dyson, as well as swing players in Alex Hornat and Jamaal Trice, but nothing special.

Advantage: Draw

Overall analysis

Once again, this is going to be a very fast game, and turnovers loom large again. UConn is not as talented as Kentucky, and their depth is probably no better. The big punch from UConn comes from their guards, who are talented scorers and adept ballhandlers. They have more than enough athleticism to get to the rim on UK, and they shoot very good free throws.

Although UConn plays at a very high tempo, thier big people do not run the floor as well as Kentucky's. This will force Calhoun to be very careful with defensive balance and may force the guards to say away from the glass. Kentucky is the better rebounding team, but sending his guards in to help could be catastrophic with Wall on the floor. Calhoun will also have to very carefully manage the minutes of his big men, as they are not quite as deep across the front line as the Wildcats are.

For Kentucky, guarding the three will be critical in this game. UConn is not a big 3-point shooting team, but that is mostly because they are too big and athletic for most of their opponents. Faced with a team like the Wildcats who are as big and even deeper across the front line, they may well shoot more from the perimeter, and that has been a big weakness of the Wildcats.

Once again, this game is likely to turn on offensive rebounds and turnovers. If UConn can get ten more shots than Kentucky, I expect that they will win this game. Otherwise, I expect Kentucky will.

Projected score: Kentucky 80, UConn 75.

Thanksgiving College Hoops Go-Round: November 26

Chris Dobbertean — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 10:30:11 -0000

More photos » by Israel Leal - AP

19 days ago: Kentucky 's John Wall shoots during the final of the Cancun Challenge NCAA basketball game against Stanford in Cancun, Mexico, Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2009. (AP Photo/Israel Leal)

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Two tournaments crowned champions in thrilling fashion on Wednesday night, while two of the biggest events of the early season start on Thursday. Let's get started with a look at Wednesday's action.

Cancun Challenge - Day Two

In the marquee bracket, Kentucky took the crown, but not before Stanford took them to overtime (after leading much of the way). The Wildcats won 73-65, but needed two John Wall foul shots to even get to the extra session. Wall had 26 and Patrick Patterson had 12 and 11 rebounds, but again the bench was MIA.
Virginia finished third by beating Cleveland State, 76-65.
In the mid-major finals, Oral Roberts finished third by defeating Florida A&M, 72-51. Sam Houston State claimed first by stunning Rider, 80-68.

Maui Invitational - Day Three

Gonzaga claimed the crown as they outlasted Cincinnati in overtime.61-59. Robert Sacre had 14 for the Bulldogs, including the game-winning dunk. Lance Stephenson had 15 for the Bearcats, but Cashmere Wright had a potential game-tying shot rim out at the end of OT.
Wisconsin took third after beating No. 21 Maryland, 78-69.
Fifth place goes to No. 24 Vanderbilt, 84-72 winners over Arizona. (Be sure to welcome our new Vanderbilt blog, Anchor of Gold.)
Colorado finished seventh by knocking off host Chaminade, 73-58.

NIT Season Tip-Off Semifinals

UConn rolled LSU in the first semifinal, 81-55, thanks to 20 points each from Kemba Walker and Jerome Dyson.
In the second semi, No. 7 Duke pulled away from Arizona State in the second half, 64-53.
The Huskies and Blue Devils will meet, as expected, for the title on Friday. The Tigers face the Sun Devils for third immediately before the championship game.

Great Alaska Shootout

Washington State opened up with an 87-68 win against Alaska-Anchorage. The Cougars will have the holiday off, while the Seawolves next face Nicholls State (FCS Pacific/MASN/Metro Sports, 9 p.m. ET).
Oklahoma played San Diego in their opener late Wednesday. As I write this, the Sooners are down big to the Toreros. I'll update that score after I wake up on the West Coast. OU is right back at it late on Thursday, as they face Houston (FCS Pacific/CSS/MASN/Metro Sports, 11:30 p.m. ET).

In other Wednesday action:

No. 1 Kansas demolished Oakland, 89-59.
Pacific got a nice win over San Diego State in the West Coast Classic, 71-63.
America East favorite Boston University knocked off CAA contender Northeastern, 69-64.
Western Carolina defeated Duquesne in a CBE Classic "subregional" tilt, 83-77.

Remember, if you don't see your team's score, click any of the score links. The page will include a sidebar with all of the night's action.

After the jump, I'll have more on the holiday slate.

For me, Thanksgiving isn't about football, it's about tournaments near Disney parks. I spent a very long day at Disneyland today and am ready to take in the action here in Anaheim tomorrow. All game times are Eastern. For more info on these tournaments, check out my Early Season Event Preview post.

Old Spice Classic (Orlando)

Creighton vs. Michigan (ESPN2, 12 p.m.)
Marquette vs. Xavier (ESPN2, 2:30 p.m.)
Alabama vs Baylor (ESPN2, 6:30 p.m.)
Florida State vs. Iona (ESPNU, 9 p.m.)

76 Classic (Anaheim)

West Virginia vs. Long Beach State (ESPNU, 2 p.m.)
Texas A&M vs. Clemson (ESPN2, 4:30 p.m.)
Minnesota vs. Butler (ESPN2, 8:30 p.m.)
UCLA vs. Portland (ESPN2, 11 p.m.)

I'll be tweeting throughout the day from the Anaheim Convention Center, @BracketDobber. If technology allows me, I will also be publishing commentaries on SB Nation's College Basketball page as events warrant. If all else fails, I'll be back here with a full recap on Friday morning.

In the meantime, have a very happy Thanksgiving! Be sure to sneak some hoops watching between servings of turkey and stuffing and the inevitable nap that follows.

College Hoops Go-Round: November 17

Chris Dobbertean — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:55:30 -0000

by Ed Reinke - AP

28 days ago: Kentucky's John Wall goes between Miami of Ohio's Julian Mavunga (4) and Nick Winbush (20) for a basket during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Lexington, Ky., Monday, Nov. 16, 2009. Wall had 19 points in Kentucky's 72-70 win. (AP Photo/Ed Reinke)

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Since I already previewed today's action here, this post will only recap Monday night's games, with the first few contests from the early morning hours on this enjoyable gimmick of a day thrown in for good measure.

The big story of the day was John Wall's debut at Kentucky, and he bailed the Wildcats out against Miami (Ohio), which ended up 72-70 UK. You can see his game winning shot here.

The other big attraction of the night was regional play in the NIT Season Tip-Off.

In the North region, Stanley Robinson and Kemba Walker led UConn to a win over Colgate. The Huskies will next face Hofstra, 68-63 winners over Yale.
The South region final will feature Western Kentucky and LSU in Baton Rouge. The Hilltoppers got 30 from A.J. Slaughter to beat Milwaukee, 69-65, while the Bayou Bengals had little problem with Indiana State, winning 56 to 45.
Duke will meet Charlotte in the East final in Durham. Kyle Singler had a double double (23 points, 11 boards) to lead the Blue Devils to a 25-point win over Coastal Carolina. The 49ers beat Elon in game two, 75 to 61.
Out West, TCU, 83-65 winners over Cal State-Northridge, will face homestanding Arizona State, who beat Texas State 84 to 62.

After the jump, I'll have some of the other action from today, including the scores of the first few games of the round the clock marathon.

The 24-hour marathon got started with a double OT thriller, as Cal State Fullerton defeated UCLA for the first time, 68-65. The Titan win snapped the Bruins' string of 37 straight wins over unranked non-conference foes.
St. Mary's had a suprisingly easy time with San Diego State in the 2 a.m. Eastern game, winning 60-58.
At 4 a.m., Northern Colorado used a 19-0 run to get ahead of host Hawai'i, whose comeback attempt fell short in the end.
St. Peter's blew out Monmouth in the first ever Division I basketball game to start at 6 a.m. local time.
Auburn fell to Missouri State, 73 to 62, becoming the second SEC school to fall to the Bears at the JQH Center in as many years, as Arkansas lost there last season.
Florida State knocked off Atlantic Sun favorite Jacksonville by 26.
Washington State struggled with Eastern Washington, finally prevailing 67 to 61.
Indiana also had a closer game than expected, as they beat South Carolina Upstate by 8.
Cincinnati also had a rough go of it last night, beating Prairie View 69-62. Lance Stephenson only had 7 on the night.
Rider didn't slip up after their upset of Mississippi State. They defeated Lehigh 86-71.
In a battle of two teams picked to finish near the bottom of their respective leagues, South Florida ran all over Tony Bennett's Virginia, 66-49. Dominique Jones had 22 to pace the Bulls.

If I didn't list your team's score, check the rundown on the right of any of the recap pages I've linked to find the result.

Georgetown Picked by Coaches to Finish Fifth in Big East

Hire Esherick — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 14:43:14 -0000

Results of the Preseason Big East Coaches' Poll were released this morning and not surprisingly, Villanova was picked to top the conference for the 2009-10 season. Full results of the poll are listed below:

Team	Pts.
1. Villanova (10)	218
2. West Virginia (5)	215
3. Connecticut (1)	185
4. Louisville	179
5. Georgetown	161
6. Syracuse	152
7. Cincinnati	135
8. Notre Dame	132
9. Pittsburgh	119
10. Seton Hall	110
11. St. John's	82
12. Marquette	78
13. Providence	52
14. USF	44
15. Rutgers	43
16. DePaul	15

Luke Harangody (Notre Dame) was named Preseason Player of the Year for second straight season. Harangody joins Patrick Ewing as the only other player to receive the honors more than once (Ewing was picked three times).

Greg Monroe (Georgetown), Lazar Hayward (Marquette), Da'Sean Butler (WVU), Scottie Reynolds (Villanova), and Deonta Vaughn (Cincinnati) join Harangody on the Preseason All Big East Team. Monroe is the only underclassman, the other five are seniors.

Jerome Dyson (UConn), Kemba Walker (UConn), Jeremy Hazell (Seton Hall), Dominique Jones (USF), Samardo Samuels (Louisville), and Devin Ebanks (WVU) were named to the All Big East Second Team.

Stanley Robinson (UConn) and Arinze Onuaku (Syracuse) received All Big East Honorable Mention honors.

Lance Stephenson (Cincinnati) was named Preseason Big East Rookie of the Year.

#14? Someone Needs to Talk to Jeff Goodman

everydayezag — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 20:48:13 -0000

I have a daily routine for checking out and keeping updated on the latest college basketball news across the country. This routine includes checking out articles by Jeff Goodman (foxsports), Andy Katz (ESPN), and Gary Parrish (CBS), multiple times per day. While I respect the opinions and thoughts of each, I came away truly baffled by an article that Zach B posted a link to today. In his ranking of the top 20 backcourts in the country, Jeff Goodman had the Gonzaga backcourt ranked #14 in the country. Originally, I figured that is not a horrible ranking, even though I believe that the Zags have a loaded backcourt. However, after looking over the list and the numerous backcourt combinations that Goodman had ranked ahead of Gonzaga, I could hardly contain my shock and frustration. Before I continue on this rant, here is what Goodman had to say about the Gonzaga backcourt.

14. Gonzaga

Backcourt: Matt Bouldin, Steven Gray, Demetri Goodson
Analysis: Bouldin is one of the most underrated guards in the nation and will finally get his due this season. Gray is a big-time shooter, and Goodson gives the Zags a quick, tough point guard.

My first gasp came when I saw the Kentucky Wildcats coming in ranked at #4.

4. Kentucky

Backcourt: John Wall, Eric Bledsoe, Darnell Dodson, DeAndre Liggins
Analysis: Both Wall and Bledsoe are terrific athletes and are more than capable of running a team. Neither is regarded as a great shooter, but they may not need to make perimeter shots with their ability to get to the basket. Dodson is the guy who can really make shots from deep.

Look, I understand the great accomplishments and praise that Eric Beldsoe and John Wall have garnered at the high school level, but lets remember this all occurred at the high school level. Neither is a good shooter, and neither has played against elite competition and smart coaches on a game-by-game basis. So who else does Goodman include to justify this ranking for Kentucky? Should I be shaking because of the 4.2 points that DeAndre Liggins averaged last year (keep in mind that Meech averaged 3.8 points per game, and I don't think he ever took a shot from farther then two feet out)? Or is Darnell Dodson the one that makes this such an elite backcourt? This is the same Darnell Dodson that has been playing JC ball the past two years, and faces many of the same challenges that Bledsoe and Wall will face as they try and get accustomed to the DI pace and quality of play.

While I was certainly surprised and taken off guard by seeing Kentucky that high, my jaw dropped to the floor when I saw UCLA at #9.

9. UCLA

Backcourt: Malcolm Lee, Jerime Anderson, Michael Roll
Analysis: The Bruins' guard tandem of Lee and Anderson may be inexperienced, but they have more than enough talent. Add in the oft-injured Roll, who likes to shoot the ball from long distance, and it's a formidable backcourt.

I automatically assumed that any backcourt that includes Michael Roll as a member couldn't be in the top 10. If I'm not mistaken, this is the same Michael Roll who has never averaged seven points a game, and will be a senior this year. This is the same Michael Roll that has never been healthy and has continually showed a lack of toughness and production throughout his career. Once I moved on from that, I suddenly remembered that Jerime Anderson was the new starting point guard. Just so I could refresh my memory on how poor Jerime Anderson was last year, I chose to look at the stats from his freshman campaign. Last season, Anderson had 42 assists to go along with 36 turnovers (Meech- 54 assists; 34 turnovers). Yet somehow, Goodman assumes that Anderson is going to morph into a starting level PAC 10 point guard. Even with Malcolm Lee, there has been nowhere near the production to match the talent. Lee is a highly skilled guard, but can't shoot the ball at all. He is a nice slasher, but until he develops a consistent jumper, defenders will back off and take away his ability to slash to the hoop.

My final issue with Goodman came on his Gonzaga explanation. First off, if you're going to include all these freshman who have only excelled at the AAU level, how do you not include Mangisto Arop as part of the Gonzaga backcourt? Was his play at the FIBA tournaments against the best in the world not enough to get him some ink? Secondly, when are national writers going to stop labeling Steven Gray as a shooter? As anyone who watched Gonzaga play last year would know, Gray is at his best when he is slashing to the hoop. He has an incredible spring to his step when he is at the rim, and his ability to shoot the ball from deep is a great asset to his ability to get to the rim. If Steven can put it together this year, and I understand that is a BIG if, there aren't many guards in the country I would take over him.

With my venting done and over with, here is how I would rank the top 20 backcourts in the country using the list that Goodman had.

1) Kansas- Assuming they don't start beating each other up and stop getting in fights with the football team, this is the most loaded backcourt in the country.

2) Texas- This group has athleticism, shooting ability, and a great amount of toughness. There are so many different combinations that Rick Barnes can put on the court.

3) Michigan St.- Kalin Lucas is so quick with the ball, and Tom Izzo has great depth and stability to provide depth and talent around Lucas.

4) Ohio St.- Evan Turner is one of the most underrated players in the country, and can play every position in the backcourt at a high level for the Buckeyes.

5) Oklahoma- Willie Warren is arguably the top guard in the country, and his star should shine even brighter with Blake Griffin gone. Mason-Griffin has the luxury that he doesn't have to be "the man" from day one, like the guys at Kentucky do.

6) Connecticut- Everyone should be ready to watch the next great Big East point guard, as this will be Kemba Walker's team for the foreseeable future.

7) Cal- I feel I have continued to underrate the Cal backcourt by dropping them to #7 on this list. Christopher and Randle will be household names come March.

8) Villanova- Scotty Reynolds is about as tough as it gets (although I hate his shot selection), and he is surrounded by great shooters like Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes.

9) Gonzaga- Matt Bouldin has improved every single year he has been on campus at Gonzaga. Steven Gray has shown the potential to dominate at this level, and this year he will be afforded every opportunity to be star. Demetri Goodson just might be ok playing in the spotlight after his performance against WKU last season.

10) Washington- Not many teams can bring a tenacious defender like Venoy Overton off the bench. Overton needs to lose some of the attitude problems he has on the court, but it's a nice option to have a trio like Gaddy, Overton, and Isiah Thomas.

11-20

11) Maryland

12) Ole Miss

13) Kentucky

14) Purdue

15) Xavier

16) Georgetown

17) Missouri

18) UCLA

19) Seton Hall

20) Louisville

Way Too Early Preview of the Big East

Hire Esherick — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 19:49:58 -0000

If the pre-season polls are any indication, no one has any idea what to expect from the Big East in the upcoming season. Andy Katz has Georgetown ranked in the top 20 in the nation whereas Adam Zagoria thinks Georgetown will barely crack the top 10 in the Big East. NBE Basketball Report picks Georgetown as 6th in the Big East while this yahoo picks Duke as #2 in the country (that has nothing to do with Georgetown or the Big East but I felt the need to mention it). So I have decided to join in on the madness.

If you hadn't figured out by my previous posts, I think freshmen are overrated. They get all the hype at the beginning of the season, but by the end it is the upperclassmen that carry the team. And I am not talking about Conference USA or Pac-10 freshmen, where the competition is the equivalent of a badminton team, I am talking about the Big East, real basketball. Freshmen do not lead Big East teams to the top of the standings. Take this nugget as evidence; since the 2005-06 season when the Big East expanded to 16 teams, the highest regular season finish for a team that also had the Big East Rookie of the Year was 6th (Marquette in 2006). The average finish for the team of the Big East Rookie of the Year has been 8th. With this in mind, I offer my Big East rankings for the 2009-10 season.

1. Villanova - Scottie Reynolds returns and Corey Fisher will have a breakout year. Nevermind the fact that they have three five-star recruits and All-American transfer Taylor King.

2. West Virginia - Da'Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks are best combo in Big East.

3. Connecticut - lost a ton, but still have a lot. Kemba Walker, Jerome Dyson and Stanley Robinson keep Uconn near the top.

4. Louisville - they are here because I don't have the stomach to put Georgetown as fourth. And Samardo Samuels and Terrence Jennings are still there.

5. Georgetown - inexperienced bench, talented starting five. People say the season depends on Hollis Thompson, I say it depends on Henry Sims; his ability to take pressure off of Greg Monroe will be the key to the season.

6. Pittsburgh - the cockroach of the Big East, never goes away.

7. Syracuse - nothing will make up for the loss of Jonny Flynn, Paul Harris and Eric Devendorf. Expect Andy Rautins to miss a few games while visiting BFF Cheddar Bob in Slovenia.

8. Cincinnati - brings back essentially the same team in a much weaker conference.

9. Seton Hall - see above.

10. St. John's - lost no one. This would be the best finish for Norm Roberts, who was hired at the same time as JT3. How he has kept his job is nothing short of a miracle.

11. Notre Dame - the return of Luke Harangody means nothing, the overrated Brey will be on the hot seat after another disappointing finish.

12. Rutgers - Mike Rosario has a breakout season.

13. Marquette - lost its three best players, nothing will fill the void.

14. South Florida - lost best player, Jesus Verdejo, who also happens to have the greatest name ever. Nothing hits the spot better than Jesus Wine.

15. Providence - lost five of the eight main players from last year's overachieving team.

16. DePaul - lost the only good player from an 0-18 team. Expect negative wins from this squad this season.

Good talk.

Mizzou 2008-09: A Statistical Look Back - The Team

Bill C. — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 14:00:13 -0000

It is time to take one last look at the stats from the 2008-09 Mizzou basketball season, and then bid adieu and wait for spring football (followed by college football magazine season, and then two-a-days, and then the season) to nab our attention.

	Mizzou	Opp
Points Per Minute	2.04	1.69
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.13	0.94
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.30	1.20
2-PT FG%	52.7%	46.8%
3-PT FG%	35.3%	30.3%
FT%	67.2%	67.4%
True Shooting %

	Mizzou	Opp
Assists	700	451
Steals	388	236
Turnovers	449	695
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	2.42	0.99

	Mizzou	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	491	490
Offensive Rebounds	486	484
Difference	-5	-6

This includes all cupcakes, so naturally the numbers are a hair inflated. In all, this pretty much wraps everything into a neat little bow--this was an okay shooting team that played great perimeter defense, rebounded in a mediocre fashion...and dominated every single facet of the game when a shot wasn't in the air.
Not only did opponents turn the ball over a lot, but they also weren't given a ton of baskets via ball movement--that's a paltry number of assists allowed. You could take some of Mizzou's defenders 1-on-1 if you were quick enough (Tyreke Evans, Jerel McNeal, Kemba Walker, I'm looking in your direction), but aside from a game here and there, you simply could not create many open shots through ball movement and patience.

You know what would be fun? If we could compare this Missouri team and its stats to Missouri teams of yore.

In fact, let's do just that.

Where did this team rank among Mizzou's best?

Thanks to a couple of different websites (including Ben Vollmayr-Lee's old site), I have Missouri's year-by-year team and player stats back to 1980-81 (29 seasons). I thought it would be fun to see where this team ranked in lots of different categories, compared to preview Mizzou squads. We'll start with per-game stats before moving to my preferred categories, the pace-independent per-possession stats.

Per Game Stats - Offense

Points Per Game

1. 1988-89 - 88.0
2. 1987-88 - 87.0
3. 1989-90 - 86.8
4. 2008-09 - 81.5
5. 1990-91 - 81.3

You're going to see this a lot--we talk about how fast-paced this Missouri team was, and they certainly were at times this year, but they could not hold a candle to those late-'80s teams. We'll call it the Billy Tubbs Era in the Big 8. Missouri was a plodding, methodical team in the early-'80s, and by about 1987, they played every bit as fast as Oklahoma and others in conference. Either way, this was the highest scoring Missouri team outside of the Billy Tubbs Era.

Rebounds Per Game

1. 1990-91 - 40.0
2. 1987-88 - 39.8
3. 2002-03 - 39.4
4. 2001-02 - 39.3
5. 1988-89 - 38.8
12. 2008-09 - 36.6

Right in the middle overall. Sounds about right.

Assists Per Game

1. 1989-90 - 20.0
2. 1988-89 - 19.1
3. 1990-91 - 18.9
4. 1987-88 - 18.4
5. 2008-09 - 18.4

The best-passing team outside the Billy Tubbs Era as well.

Turnovers Per Game

1. 2008-09 - 11.8
2. 1989-90 - 12.8
3. 1999-00 - 13.1
4. 2007-08 - 13.1
5. 2002-03 - 13.6

This team was a full turnover better than any other Missouri team in terms of turnovers. Ridiculously good. Combining high assists and low turnovers, you could possibly call this Missouri's best ball-handling team ever. That's what made them so good--yeah, they created chaos on defense, but they were completely in control on offense.

Blocks Per Game

1. 2002-03 - 4.4
2. 2001-02 - 4.3
3. 1990-91 - 4.3
4. 2003-04 - 4.3
5. 2000-01 - 4.0
7. 2008-09 - 3.7

Thanks as much to Keith Ramsey as anybody else, this was actually one of the best non-Arthur Johnson teams in terms of blocked shots.

BCI

1. 2008-09 - 2.42
2. 1989-90 - 2.17
3. 2007-08 - 1.91
4. 1987-88 - 1.82
5. 1999-00 - 1.73

As one would expect with what we saw in the assist and turnover numbers, this team was by far the best BCI team in Missouri's last 30 years. Two of the top three are Mike Anderson teams, and...we're seeing that 1989-90 team pop up quite a bit, aren't we?

Per-Game Stats - Defense

Points Per Game Allowed

1. 1981-82 - 59.7
2. 1983-84 - 62.8
3. 1982-83 - 63.4
4. 1998-99 - 63.6
5. 1980-81 - 64.9
7. 2008-09 - 67.7

As I mentioned, the early-'80s (the Stipo & Sundvold era) saw Missouri wield an extremely stifling half-court defense and ride it to three conference titles. The top three teams on this list were from that early-'80s period. But Mizzou's ridiculous scoring margin at home led them to being the #4 scoring offense in the last 29 years and the #7 scoring defense. That's, uhh, a pretty good combination.

Rebounds Per Game Allowed

1. 1982-83 - 27.9
2. 1983-84 - 29.2
3. 1981-82 - 29.5
4. 1984-85 - 29.9
5. 1985-86 - 31.2
22. 2008-09 - 37.1

Assists Per Game Allowed

1. 1980-81 - 10.2
2. 1981-82 - 10.5
3. 2008-09 - 11.9
4. 2007-08 - 12.3
5. 1993-94 - 12.5

It really is easy to see how opponents wore down. They couldn't create easy buckets off of ball movement, they couldn't force any turnovers of their own...

Turnovers Forced Per Game

1. 2006-07 - 18.9
2. 2008-09 - 18.3
3. 1990-91 - 18.0
4. 1999-00 - 17.7
5. 2007-08 - 17.1

Steals Per Game

1. 1990-91 - 11.5
2. 2008-09 - 10.2
3. 2006-07 - 10.0
4. 1998-99 - 9.1
5. 1991-92 - 9.0

Blocks Per Game Allowed

1. 1982-83 - 2.0
2. 1983-84 - 2.0
3. 1986-87 - 2.1
4. 1981-82 - 2.4
5. 1988-89 - 2.4
6. 2008-09 - 2.6

BCI Allowed

1. 2008-09 - 0.99
2. 2007-08 - 1.08
3. 2006-07 - 1.08
4. 1999-00 - 1.10
5. 1993-94 - 1.14

BCI! BCI! BCI!

Per-Possession Stats - Offense

Possessions Per Game

1. 1990-91 - 80.9
2. 1988-89 - 80.1
3. 1987-88 - 77.9
4. 1989-90 - 77.8
5. 1993-94 - 77.4
15. 2008-09 - 72.1

This might be the most shocking stat here. As much as we heard about how Missouri loves to push the tempo and push the tempo and push the tempo, the pace at which they played their games in the 2008-09 season was distinctly middle-of-the-road. A lot of 2008-09 was played in the halfcourt, and Missouri was able to kill there too.

Points Per Possession

1. 2001-02 - 1.13
2. 2008-09 - 1.13
3. 1987-88 - 1.12
4. 1989-90 - 1.12
5. 1988-89 - 1.10

Second-most efficient offense of the last 29 years.

Free Throw Attempts Per Field Goal Attempts (a.k.a. how good were they at getting to the line?)

1. 1995-96 - 0.51
2. 1981-82 - 0.51
3. 1980-81 - 0.50
4. 1986-87 - 0.49
5. 1984-85 - 0.49
23. 2008-09 - 0.37

Leo Lyons was one of the best in the country at drawing contact, but the rest of the team...not so much.

3-Point Shots Per Possession (since 1986-87)

1. 1999-00 - 0.36
2. 2001-02 - 0.33
3. 2004-05 - 0.32
4. 2002-03 - 0.31
5. 2000-01 - 0.31
10. 2008-09 - 0.27

Anybody shocked to see three Clarence Gilbert teams in the top five? Missouri wasn't particularly great at shooting the 3-ball, so it's good to see that they didn't shoot them at an exceedingly high rate.

Offensive Rebound Percentage (since 1996-97*)

1. 2001-02 - 7.9%
2. 2003-04 - 7.8%
3. 2002-03 - 7.4%
4. 2005-06 - 7.3%
5. 2000-01 - 7.2%
7. 2008-09 - 6.9%

* No offensive/defensive rebound splits until then.

Mizzou's rebounding mediocrity came on the defensive end of the ball--their offensive rebounding ability was above par. Oh, and once again the AJ era reaped severe benefits--he and Travon Bryant were on the prowl for four of Mizzou's top five offensive rebounding seasons.

Rebounds Per Possession

1. 2002-03 - 0.58
2. 2001-02 - 0.56
3. 2003-04 - 0.55
4. 2004-05 - 0.54
5. 2001-01 - 0.53
9. 2008-09 - 0.51

Assists Per Possession

1. 1989-90 - 0.26
2. 2008-09 - 0.26
3. 1982-83 - 0.24
4. 1988-89 - 0.24
5. 1987-88 - 0.24

Even putting aside tempo, this was as good a passing team as you'll see in black and gold. And basically the entire backcourt returns for 2009-10.

Turnovers Per Possession

1. 2008-09 - 0.16
2. 1989-90 - 0.16
3. 2007-08 - 0.18
4. 1999-00 - 0.18
5. 1987-88 - 0.19

BCI! BCI! BCI!

Steals Allowed Per Possession

1. 1999-00 - 0.08
2. 2007-08 - 0.08
3. 1993-94 - 0.09
4. 2008-09 - 0.09
5. 1982-83 - 0.09

Per-Possession Stats - Defense

Points Per Possession Allowed

1. 1981-82 - 0.88
2. 1998-99 - 0.89
3. 1990-91 - 0.90
4. 1980-81 - 0.91
5. 1991-92 - 0.91
7. 2008-09 - 0.94

Free Throw Attempts Per Field Goal Attempts (a.k.a. how good were they at preventing the opponent from getting to the line?)

1. 1981-82 - 0.29
2. 1984-85 - 0.29
3. 1991-92 - 0.30
4. 1985-86 - 0.31
5. 2002-03 - 0.31
24. 2008-09 - 0.40

Lots of shooting fouls.

3-Point Shots Per Possession Allowed

1. 1986-87 - 0.13
2. 1988-89 - 0.18
3. 1987-88 - 0.19
4. 1990-91 - 0.20
5. 1989-90 - 0.20
12. 2008-09 - 0.24

Offensive Rebound Percentage Allowed (Since 1996-97)

1. 2004-05 - 6.1%
2. 1999-00 - 6.4%
3. 2001-02 - 6.5%
4. 2003-04 - 6.6%
5. 2006-07 - 6.7%
7. 2008-09 - 6.9%

Rebounds Per Possession Allowed

1. 1984-85 - 0.42
2. 1982-83 - 0.42
3. 1985-86 - 0.42
4. 1988-89 - 0.43
5. 1981-82 - 0.43
21. 2008-09 - 0.52

Assists Per Possession Allowed

1. 1980-81 - 0.14
2. 1981-82 - 0.15
3. 1993-94 - 0.16
4. 2008-09 - 0.16
5. 2007-08 - 0.17

Turnovers Forced Per Possession

1. 2006-07 - 0.26
2. 2008-09 - 0.25
3. 1999-00 - 0.25
4. 2007-08 - 0.23
5. 1998-99 - 0.23

Steals Per Possession

1. 1990-91 - 0.14
2. 2008-09 - 0.14
3. 2006-07 - 0.14
4. 1998-99 - 0.13
5. 1999-00 - 0.12

Fouls Committed Per Possession

1. 2006-07 - 0.29
2. 2004-05 - 0.29
3. 2000-01 - 0.29
4. 1996-97 - 0.29
5. 2003-04 - 0.28
7. 2008-09 - 0.28

Shooting Stats - Offense

Points Per Shot

1. 1981-82 - 1.46
2. 1987-88 - 1.41
3. 1982-83 - 1.40
4. 1986-87 - 1.40
5. 1995-96 - 1.39
14. 2008-09 - 1.30

Average shooting team.

Field Goal %

1. 1982-83 - 54.0%
2. 1981-82 - 53.9%
3. 1988-89 - 52.4%
4. 1985-86 - 52.4%
5. 1987-88 - 52.0%
13. 2008-09 - 47.3%

Average shooting team.

3-Point FG %

1. 1987-88 - 42.0%
2. 2001-02 - 39.1%
3. 1994-95 - 38.8%
4. 1989-90 - 38.2%
5. 2000-01 - 38.0%
17. 2008-09 - 35.3%

Below average 3-point shooting team.

Free Throw %

1. 1996-97 - 75.8%
2. 1981-82 - 74.3%
3. 1984-85 - 72.9%
4. 1991-92 - 71.5%
5. 1999-00 - 71.0%
24. 2008-09 - 67.2%

Below average free throw shooting team. But we knew that.

Shooting Stats - Defense

Points Per Shot Allowed

1. 1981-82 - 1.05
2. 1998-99 - 1.09
3. 1980-81 - 1.10
4. 1991-92 - 1.12
5. 2002-03 - 1.12
18. 2008-09 - 1.20

Field Goal % Allowed

1. 1998-99 - 39.3%
2. 1992-93 - 40.4%
3. 2002-03 - 40.8%
4. 1990-91 - 41.3%
5. 1991-92 - 41.6%
7. 2008-09 - 41.8%

3-Point FG % Allowed

1. 2008-09 - 30.3%
2. 2007-08 - 30.9%
3. 1998-99 - 31.8%
4. 2000-01 - 32.1%
5. 1999-00 - 33.0%

An interesting mix here--opponents shot horribly from long range and poorly overall, yet averaged a decent number of points per shot. It all goes back to Mizzou allowing a lot of free throw attempts.

Tomorrow, we look at the players, and we play some fun games with similarity scores.

UConn: Know (Some More About) the Team Standing Between Mizzou and the Final Four...also, Links!

Bill C. — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 14:57:33 -0000

As we wait for the mid-afternoon tip-off, let's take a look at how UConn has done thus far in the NCAA Tournament. Consider this the companion piece to this week's earlier UConn preview.

But first...some Saturday morning Mizzou-UConn links!

(And just so you know, this post got much longer than I intended. Get comfortable.)

TheUConnBlog.com: Everybody cross your fingers and pray: #1 UConn vs #3 Missouri Preview
Hartford Courant: UConn-Missouri: Who will set the pace?
The Trib: Underdog is here

Calipari said Thursday that Missouri should take the same approach into today’s game against the even more heavily favored Huskies.

“You have to go in with the mind-set they went in with today, which is, ‘We can beat these guys,’ ” Calipari said. “I think what they did to us today in the first half, every 50-50 ball they got, every rough play, hands-on bumps, they just made those plays. … You are going to have to go in against a tough Connecticut team and do the same.”
The Trib: Avoid the long arm of Thabeet
The Trib: Game a study in contrasts
The Missourian: Missouri players keep mood light at NCAA Tournament
The Missourian: Connecticut's Thabeet big obstacle for Missouri
KC Star: This is a magical moment for Missouri
KC Star (Posnanski): This Missouri team is hard to hate
You probably know that Bill James, baseball writer extraordinaire, is an intense Kansas basketball fan. It is one of the obsessions of his life. He grew up in Kansas, went to school at Kansas, lives in Kansas, and he will refer to the Jayhawks as “we.” And as a Kansas fan, he takes very seriously all of his Jayhawk responsibilities.
“I hate Missouri basketball with a bottomless passion,” he says.

So, OK, Kansas fan hates Missouri? Great. News flash. What’s the point?

Only this: “I love this Missouri team,” Bill James says.
The Maneater: Missouri ready to outrun UConn's Thabeet
PowerMizzou: Thabeet presents big challenge to Tigers
PowerMizzou: Lawrence is just one step away
StatSheet.com: AP preview
Post-Dispatch: Missouri sizes up UConn's big man in NCAA Tournament
Post-Dispatch (Burwell): Young Tigers go old school
Post-Dispatch (Burwell): A little luck, Denmon says
Post-Dispatch (Bernie): MU team carries hopes of so many old Tigers
Upon Further Review: Thoughts from a Mizzou afterglow

Oh yeah, and...

The Trib: 'Bama hires VCU's Grant

Okay, NOW to UConn/Purdue...stats after the jump...

UConn vs Purdue

NCAA Basketball Stats

	UConn	Purdue
Points Per Minute	1.80	1.50
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.04	0.86
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.29	0.91
2-PT FG%	45.8%	41.9%
3-PT FG%	37.5%	26.1%
FT%	63.3%	54.5%
True Shooting %	52.0%	42.3%

	UConn	Purdue
Assists	19	12
Steals	6	7
Turnovers	13	9
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.92	2.11

	UConn	Purdue
Expected Offensive Rebounds	13	16
Offensive Rebounds	14	9
Difference	+1	-7

This game was basically played at UConn's favorite pace, and while the UConn offense was alright--52.0% true shooting, 1.92 BCI--it really wasn't much better than alright.
What made this game for the Huskies was complete and utter dominance on the boards. If you've been paying attention to my "Expected Offensive Rebounds" number, you've seen that anything over about +3 or +4 is a pretty big rebound margin. UConn was +8. Somehow Mizzou needs to figure out how to stay within +3 or +4 to have a chance. Good luck with that.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Hasheem Thabeet (7'3, 263, Jr.)	18.87	0.52	15 Pts (on 7 shots), 15 Reb (4 Off), 4 Blk, 4 TO
Craig Austrie (6'3, 176, Sr.)	17.97	0.56	17 Pts (on 6 shots), 2 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 TO
A.J. Price (6'2, 181, Sr.)	11.91	0.35	15 Pts, 4 Reb, 7 Ast, 2 Stl, 2 TO
Stanley Robinson (6'9, 210, Jr.)	11.01	0.30	10 Pts, 11 Reb, 2 Ast
Kemba Walker (6'1, 172, Fr.)	9.21	0.46	5 Pts, 3 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 Stl
Jim Veronick (6'8, 200, Sr.)	0.79	0.79	1 minute
Jeff Adrien (6'7, 243, Sr.)	0.67	0.02	8 Pts (on 13 shots), 6 Reb, 2 Ast, 3 TO
Gavin Edwards (6'9, 234, Jr.)	-0.22	-0.02	2 Pts
Donnell Beverly (6'4, 190, So.)	-0.79	-0.39	2 minutes
Scottie Haralson (6'4, 215, Fr.)	-0.79	-0.79	1 minute

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Craig Austrie was insanely good against the Boilers. If UConn wins this game, I have the feeling we'll remember Austrie's or AJ Price's performance as much as we remember Hasheem Thabeet's, even if Thabeet is getting all the headlines (seriously, how many of those links above were about Thabeet and only Thabeet?).
Offensively, Thabeet was about as good as he can be--he averaged over 2 points per FG attempt and grabbed 4 offensive rebounds. Thabeet's major big-man counterpart, Jeff Adrien, was highly ineffective against the Boilers, but he's still been quite good overall in the tourney. One thing to notice, however, is that Thabeet and Adrien combined for 7 turnovers. I like that number. I like 8 or 9 even more.

UConn vs the NCAA Tournament

	UConn	Opp
Points Per Minute	2.23	1.44
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.24	0.80
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.45	0.89
2-PT FG%	57.0%	40.2%
3-PT FG%	33.3%	22.2%
FT%	65.6%	65.8%
True Shooting %	59.0%	40.9%

	UConn	Opp
Assists/Gm	22.3	13.3
Steals/Gm	7.0	5.0
Turnovers/Gm	10.7	11.7
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	2.75	1.57

	UConn	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds/Gm	12.3	15.7
Offensive Rebounds/Gm	14.3	10.0
Difference	+2.0	-5.7

Clearly these numbers are somewhat skewed by the first round game against Chattanooga, but you can still see what UConn's modus operandi is: ball control and rebounding. If Mizzou's jumper is cold, they're probably screwed.

Player	AdjGS/Gm	GmSc/Min	Line
A.J. Price	15.89	0.51	20.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.7 SPG, 3.0 TOPG
Hasheem Thabeet	15.27	0.60	13.7 PPG, 10.7 RPG (3.0 Off), 2.7 BPG, 1.0 SPG, 2.3 TOPG
Stanley Robinson	13.91	0.41	15.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG (2.7 Off), 1.0 APG
Jeff Adrien	11.06	0.36	14.7 PPG, 10.0 RPG (3.7 Off), 2.3 APG, 1.0 BPG, 2.7 TOPG
Craig Austrie	10.16	0.35	7.7 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.7 SPG
Kemba Walker	9.98	0.44	7.7 PPG, 2.7 PPG, 4.7 APG, 1.3 SPG
Gavin Edwards	6.33	0.40	5.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG (1.7 Off), 1.0 APG
Donnell Beverly	3.76	0.94	3.0 PPG, 1.7 APG
Jim Veronick	1.18	1.18	3 minutes
Scottie Haralson	0.31	0.10	9 minutes
John Lindner	-0.05	-0.03	3 minutes
Jonathan Mandeldove	-0.21	-0.10	4 minutes
Johnnie Bird	-0.21	-0.14	3 minutes

With Beverly only playing a few minutes a game, UConn's been playing with a 7.5-man rotation in the tournament. If the game is played at UConn's pace, and there are a lot of whistles, Missouri will be facing a majorly up-and-down battle. But I have the feeling they'll be sprinting the ball down court after every UConn basket (and miss) and trying to beat UConn's bigs to the basket and wear UConn's guards out. It's not a guaranteed success, clearly, but if they can do that a few times, and if there aren't a ton of stoppages, UConn will be clutching their shorts just like Memphis was.
Austrie, Thabeet and Price have been combining for eight turnovers a game in the tourney. Make that 10-12, and Mizzou is in serious business.

Keys to the Game

Pace. Consider the number of possessions the same way you consider the speed limit--70 could be a major benchmark. If Mizzou sucks UConn into speeding, Mizzou is in control--over 70 is a Mizzou advantage, way over 70 a major Mizzou advantage. Under 70, and UConn is probably going to win. Missouri is capable of winning slower games--their three Big 12 Tourney wins only averaged in the mid-60s. But with UConn's halfcourt prowess, the speed and transition game will be huge, not only because UConn is a thin team, but because UConn is a BIG team that has a length and size advantage in the halfcourt.
DeMarre & Leo's Points Per Shot. A high points-per-shot figure means one of two things: 1) either you're shooting a very high % from the field, or 2) you're drawing fouls and making free throws. DeMarre and Leo (and the team as a whole, clearly) will have to either shoot very efficiently or draw some fouls for Mizzou to score enough points today. That 17-foot jumper has to be going through the net. If it's not--if either or both of them start out pretty cold (because you know they'll both take a couple mid- to long-range jumpers pretty quickly--they always do), and if Mizzou isn't drawing fouls off of Thabeet and/or Adrien, then Mizzou might find themselves in trouble because, well, they will get outrebounded in this game.
The last five minutes of the first half. The rules for Missouri games have somewhat changed in the NCAA Tourney--until a week ago, the goal for Missouri was not to find themselves down big at half, then watch the opponent melt down in the second half. Now, it's been "kill 'em in the first half, hold on for dear life in the second." Whichever of the two trends emerges against UConn, the last five minutes of the first half (or, roughly speaking, Round 5 of the 10-round fight) will determine the way the second half unfolds.

In Mizzou losses, opponents have sprinted to the finish and turned an 8-12 point Mizzou deficit into a 15-19 point deficit. In the NCAA Tourney, it's been the exact opposite. If Mizzou's bench comes ready to play, they can take advantage of a UConn lineup that's breathing pretty heavily, so I guess you could say that a big first-half performance from Kim English, or Marcus Denmon, or Justin Safford, or Laurence Bowers, or more than one, could make the game for Mizzou.

Prediction

As I've mentioned before, I tend to try to project a pace and a Points Per Possession figure for each team, then figure out what that score projects. (Possessions x Points Per Possession = Points.) I'm at a complete loss to project Mizzou's points per possession in this one. It's been so high all year, and it was through the roof against a very good Memphis team. But as high as Mizzou's PPP has been, UConn's opponents' PPP has been equally low. I'll more or less split the difference and say that Mizzou will end up around the 1.05 PPP mark. They really could end up anywhere between about 0.95 and 1.15.

Meanwhile, I think UConn has a bit more margin for error (just like I said Memphis did). They'll most likely fall between about 1.03 and 1.13). So we'll say 1.08 for UConn. At a pace of 72 possessions, that's UConn 78, Mizzou 76, a prediction quite similar to mine for the Memphis game. And the Memphis game worked out just fine, wouldn't you say? So 78-76 UConn it is.

Like most Mizzou games, a comfortable margin of victory is likely no matter who wins--Mizzou pressing the pace means larger momentum swings both ways, and when you think about it, Mizzou just hasn't played that many truly close games this year (Marquette, KU, @Texas, @OSU, @Nebraska, Xavier...and that's about it?). They've come through big-time in the clutch, and I like their chances here, but if they play 10 times, UConn probably wins 6-7, and I'm playing the odds here. Prove me wrong, boys.

(Oh yeah, and be sure to confess your sins.)