SB Nation - Marcus Denmon

Study Hall: Mizzou-Truman State

Bill C. — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:00:35 -0000

Why tweak a format that worked so well last year, right? While Statsheet.com doesn't track exhibition games, I still do, meaning you get the data tables without the pretty Statsheet graphs. Regardless, here's a statistical look back at the laughingest of exhibition laughers.

Mizzou 96, Truman State 33

	Truman	Mizzou
Points Per Minute	0.83	2.40
Points Per Possession (PPP)	0.46	1.33
Points Per Shot (PPS)	0.79	1.32
2-PT FG%	29.2%	57.9%
3-PT FG%	16.7%	18.8%
FT%	55.6%	72.4%
True Shooting %	33.1%	56.0%

	Truman	Mizzou
Assists	5	14
Steals	6	20
Turnovers	29	12
Ball Control Index (BCI) (Assists + Steals) / TO	0.38	2.83

	Truman	Mizzou
Expected Offensive Rebounds	13	14
Offensive Rebounds	8	24
Difference	-5	+10

Damn...hold them to one less point, and we perfectly triple their score. Inexcusable.
Obviously we're not going to try to glean too much from any of this, but there's statistical domination, and there's statistical domination. I mentioned last week that Mizzou is as safe as anybody when it comes to avoiding slip-ups in these types of games, simply because when the athletic advantage is this significant, an opponent will have to shoot about 85% from the field to have a shot. And if Truman had indeed shot 85% from the field, they'd have ended up with around 26 more made field goals and 52-62 points...and they'd have still lost.
Didn't you miss having BCI in your life? I know I did.
Nice walk-up crowd, by the way. There's nothing truly amazing about attendance of 8,120, but considering we drew 4,300 for the first exhibition last year, I think that number's pretty outstanding.

If you're looking for red flags, here's what I've got to offer:

Missouri was 3-for-16 from 3-point range. A lot of the misses were open looks from people we know to be good shooters. Kimmeh and Justin Safford combined to go 1-for-5 from downtown, for instance. If there's a worry at all, it's that Miguel Paul and Michael Dixon combined to go 0-for-6. With such a small sample size, however, we'll obviously wait and see how the next few games go before we call this an actual worry.
Twelve turnovers is a bit much for an opponent like Truman State, even in a game where the starters averaged only 17.6 minutes. Kimmeh led the way with three, while Dixon and Laurence Bowers had two each, but ten of the turnovers came before halftime, and things got shored up tremendously in the second half. Again, this isn't a concern yet.
I mentioned wanting to see good things from Marcus Denmon, wanting him to prove to me he could be the second good long-range shooter that we needed, and he clearly didn't show that in opportunity #1. As with the others, this isn't a concern yet, just a missed opportunity. He's got plenty more chances to show what he can do. Meanwhile, he played great defense all night, and that's lovely.

That's about all I've got as far as negatives go. Player stats after the jump.

Player Stats

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Laurence Bowers	16.11	0.90	18 Min, 14 Pts (6-for-12 FG), 12 Reb (8 Off), 2 Stl, 2 Blk, 2 TO
Keith Ramsey	11.04	0.69	16 Min, 9 Pts (4-for-6), 5 Reb, 2 Ast, 3 Stl
Zaire Taylor	10.35	0.52	20 Min, 7 Pts (1-for-1), 2 Reb, 3 Stl
J.T. Tiller	9.67	0.60	16 Min, 13 Pts (5-for-6), ridiculously good man-to-man defense
Kim English	9.67	0.48	20 Min, 10 Pts (3-for-8), 4 Reb, 5 Ast, 3 Stl, 3 TO
Tyler Stone	9.18	0.92	10 Min, 7 Pts (3-for-4), 7 Reb (3 Off)
Michael Dixon	7.03	0.41	17 Min, 10 Pts (5-for-9), 3 Reb, 3 Stl, 2 TO
Justin Safford	6.64	0.42	16 Min, 10 Pts (3-for-7), 4 Reb
John Underwood	4.79	0.40	12 Min, 4 Pts (2-for-5), 5 Reb (4 Off)
Steve Moore	3.91	0.30	13 Min, 2 Pts (1-for-2), 6 Reb (4 Off)
Miguel Paul	3.32	0.18	18 Min, 3 Pts (0-for-4), 2 Reb, 2 Ast, 3 Stl
Jarrett Sutton	2.93	0.42	7 Min, 5 Pts (2-for-4)
Marcus Denmon	0.39	0.02	17 Min, 2 Pts (1-for-5), 2 Reb, 2 Stl

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

I had a friend in town from Chicago, and the first thing I told him as we headed to the game was, if Laurence Bowers is really good, we're going to be great this year. Again, it was only Truman State (how many times can one person say that in one post?), but let's just say that his numbers were gaudy enough to excite me. You expect good numbers, but his were great. Eight offensive rebounds, and a nice touch on the 17-footer that Leo and DeMarre patented last year, plus a couple of steals and a couple of blocks? Yes, please.
Compared to my expectations, the person who impressed me most on Friday was Tyler Stone. I mentioned this in yesterday's podcast, but he was a lot bigger than I expected, and he was very smooth around the hoop. I'm not sure his range goes beyond 8 feet yet, but we've got plenty of bigs (Bowers and Safford, to name two) with good range--we need a guy with post moves and strength, and Stone's showing was encouraging. Obviously I'll wait to see him do that against a real opponent before I get too encouraged, but he looked really good.
As I also mentioned in the podcast, I cannot tell you the morbid enjoyment I got out of watching J.T. Tiller guard D2 guards man-to-man. It was almost uncomfortable to watch after a while. Meanwhile, Zaire Taylor and Kim English seemed perfectly content with distributing the ball and getting younger guys some opportunities to make plays. I assume we'll see more shots from both of them when the games get real. It really was fun, though, to watch English looking to get Jarrett Sutton the ball every second that he was on the court.
Get John Underwood a sandwich. Send him to The Diner for three Stretches every morning. Dude needs to gain some weight as soon as humanly possible. He had a really nice block and looked decent around the basket, but he's going to get pushed around this year. Get 20 pounds on him, and he could be a really nice defensive force in future seasons.
Not sure what to think about Steve Moore. He looked neither good nor bad, really.

Keys to the Game Revisited

From Friday's preview.

Show up. Mizzou did indeed show up.
Rebound. A 54-24 rebounding edge, and a +15 margin in expected rebounds. I consider those to be, uhh, pretty good numbers.
Marcus Denmon. Like I said, he didn't show much beyond good defense, but he's got plenty of opportunities to show what he can do.

Summary

Eight! Eight points in the second half! Great defense is fun to watch.

Know Your Rival: Truman State

Bill C. — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:00:34 -0000

That's right, it's that time of year again. Time to get your basketball nerd on!!!!! We will use exhibition season to dust off the basketball stats and re-visit the greatness that is StatSheet.com (not that Stat Sheet has any info on Truman State, of course).

Last Year
Truman State: 6-21

	TSU	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.54	1.74
Points Per Possession (PPP)	0.94	1.06
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.17	1.26
2-PT FG%	45.6%	47.7%
3-PT FG%	32.2%	38.0%
FT%	67.5%	70.0%
True Shooting %	50.4%	54.4%

	TSU	Opp
Assists/Gm	11.6	11.6
Steals/Gm	6.4	7.4
Turnovers/Gm	14.9	11.5
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.21	1.65

	TSU	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	321	318
Offensive Rebounds	264	256
Difference	-57	-62

As a refresher...
Mizzou: 31-7

	MU	Opp
Points Per Minute	2.04	1.69
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.14	0.95
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.30	1.20
2-PT FG%	52.7%	46.8%
3-PT FG%	35.3%	30.3%
FT%	67.2%	67.4%
True Shooting %	56.1%	50.9%

	MU	Opp
Assists/Gm	18.4	11.9
Steals/Gm	10.2	6.2
Turnovers/Gm	11.8	18.3
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	2.42	0.99

	MU	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	491	490
Offensive Rebounds	486	484
Difference	-5	-6

Player	AdjGS/Gm*	GmSc/Min	2008-09 Line
Ethan Freeman (6'6, 225, Jr.)	10.8	0.39	27.8 MPG, 9.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.0 APG, 2.3 TOPG
Alex Henderson (6'0, 180, Jr.)	8.3	0.31	26.6 MPG, 8.1 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.4 TOPG
Vesko Filchev (6'10, 280, So.)	5.4	0.43	12.6 MPG, 5.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.2 TOPG
Brian Nwelue (6'4, 195, Jr.)	3.9	0.24	16.4 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.2 TOPG
Stefan Garrison (6'4, 195, Jr.)	0.6	0.04	14.6 MPG, 3.3 PPG
Mart Misiewicz (6'7, 215, Jr.)	2.0	0.31	6.5 MPG, 2.1 PPG
Matt Taylor (6'1, 185, Sr.)	1.1	0.12	9.5 MPG, 1.4 PPG
Andrew James (6'8, 235, Jr.)	-1.1	-0.16	7.0 MPG, 0.8 PPG, 1.2 RPG
David Scott (7'0, 275, Jr.)	-0.0	-0.01	4.2 MPG, 0.6 PPG
Matt Patterson (5'11, 165, Fr.)
Tom Norton (5'9, 170, Fr.)
Jesse Schrader (6'4, 190, Fr.)

Truman's (relative) strengths: Um...experience? Size? They've got plenty of both. Seven of their 12 players are juniors, and one is a senior. They seem to have plenty of backcourt options, and needless to say, few D2 teams have two guys at least 6'10 and 275 pounds. That said...um...shouldn't two guys that big have done just a wee bit more than combine for 16 minutes and six points per game for a bad D2 team? Methinks they're stiffs.
Truman's weaknesses: You mean, other than going 6-21 against D2 teams last year? Probably don't need to go into this one too much. They return three starters and plenty of upperclassmen from a bad team, but unless they have someone who can bring the ball up the court without turning it over, then make about 16 of 20 3-pointers, they don't have a chance.

Keys to the Game

Show Up. Sorry, but it's true. You always want to respect your opponent, especially in light of what happened to Syracuse against LeMoyne, but...no. While we don't know yet whether Mike Anderson's style can take us to a Final Four (we know it almost can) or win a national title, but we know that when Mizzou has the athleticism advantage that they will have tonight, there is almost no chance of a slip-up.
Rebound. This will be an interesting stat to watch. We have very good reason to assume rebounding will once again be Missouri's biggest weakness, and compared to everything else, Truman State was at least a decent rebounding team, not necessarily on the offensive glass, but at least on the defensive glass. If TSU is able to win the rebounding battle today, even in a huge Missouri win, it could be at least a little bit of a red flag.
Marcus Denmon. Why? No particular reason. I just have it in my head that he could be a huge scoring threat this year and, in the best-case scenario, eventually turn into something resembling Kim English on offense and J.T. Tiller on defense. Or, perhaps more accurately, Clarence Gilbert with more of a conscience. He's already proven that he's a tough S.O.B. like Clarence was. Let's see what he's got.

Prediction

Pain.

Mizzou Links, 11-6-09

Bill C. — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 11:46:43 -0000

Do be sure to check out the latest step in the Joe Davis Fail Project...I'd say it's funny, but it's every bit as pathetic as funny...

Mizzou-Baylor Links

PowerMizzou: Bears Insider: Five Questions for Saturday
Mizzou Athletics (via Facebook): I thought the Baylor game wasn't on TV?
So FSN will piece together a game’s worth of highlights, cut down to an hour’s length, via the camera angles that are being fed to the instant-replay booth. Audio will be supplied by the Tiger Radio Network, so you hard-cord Tiger fans won’t have to turn down the volume – you’ll have the dulcet tones of Mike, Chris and Coach on your TV.

The Mizzou/Baylor replay of "Big 12 No-Huddle" will show on these FSN affiliates (all times local):

Tuesday, Nov. 10
- FS Southwest (Noon)
- FS Midwest (1 p.m.)
Wednesday, Nov. 11
- FS Midwest (9 p.m.)
Thursday, Nov. 12
- FS Southwest (Noon)
Waco Tribune: Former Marlin star finally shining at Missouri

"He’s an extremely talented guy," Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert said. "Somehow Danario always finds a way to get open. And whenever he’s open I try to get him the ball, because really on any play he can take it to the house."

Like most college coaches, Baylor coach Art Briles took notice of Alexander in the midst of recruiting his more heralded high school teammate at Marlin, quarterback Jeremy Sanders. Yet even somewhat overshadowed, Alexander’s future appeared blindingly bright.

"He’s a big, agile kid that runs a little bit better than you think he does," Briles said. "He’s tough with the football, he’s got great hands and he’s a big target. Whatever he’s doing, it doesn’t surprise me at all."
Waco Tribune: John Werner's College Predictions: Another road loss for Baylor
Waco Tribune: How they match up
Palestra.net: Mizzou Looks to Start November Hot

Rosters Set for Mizzou's Black and Gold Game

Evan Pfaff — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 19:15:12 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Will Zaire Taylor be smiling after Mizzou’s Black & Gold game? (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Browse more photos »

Prep for the big homecoming football game against Texas the following day by catching the Tigers take on the Tigers for only $5 (or free with Student ID) this Friday in the annual Black & Gold game.

With players watching on, honorary coaches MO Governor Jay Nixon and UM System President Gary Forsee selected the teams Tuesday after practice at Mizzou Arena.

Their selections:

Black Squad
Honorary coach: Governor Jay Nixon
G-Zaire Taylor
G-Kim English
G-Mike Dixon
G-Jarrett Sutton (first half)
F-Keith Ramsey
F-Steve Moore
F-Tyler Stone

Gold Squad
Honorary coach: UM System President Gary Forsee
G-J.T. Tiller
G-Marcus Denmon
G-Miguel Paul
G-Jarrett Sutton (second half)
F-Laurence Bowers
F-Justin Safford
F-John Underwood

Follow Evan on Twitter at http://twitter.com/MizzouHoops

Poll

Who will win the Mizzou Black & Gold game?

The Black Squad

16 votes

The Gold Squad

14 votes

With Jarrett Sutton playing on both teams, it is too hard to predcit.

9 votes

39 votes | Poll has closed

Missouri's Recruiting Reach

Evan Pfaff — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 14:22:06 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Missouri head coach Mike Anderson is signing recruits from inside and outside of Missouri. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Browse more photos »

''I would like every kid from Kansas City to St. Louis to be thinking about playing for Missouri." - Quin Snyder, 1999.

Current Mizzou head basketball coach Mike Anderson also understands that the state borders need to be shored up and has done a great job securing in-state talent. In the 3 full years Anderson has had to recruit he has signed arguably the top three rated players out of the Kansas City area. Those three players, sophomores Marcus Denmon and Steve Moore and freshman Michael Dixon, should all see significant time on the floor this season.

However Anderson knows that you cannot win with in-state talent alone and that to be a national powerhouse, you need to recruit throughout the nation.

That is why he spends time recruiting outside the Show-Me borders and to get athletes from every part of the country. In fact this year's roster is comprised of 13 players representing 8 states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, Missouri (4), New York and Tennessee (3). Those states embody almost every region of the country and show that Mizzou is making itself a household name throughout the country.

And now in prototypical Anderson fashion, in 2010-11 Tiger Nation will see Ricky Kreklow and Phil Pressey suit up for the Tigers. For these two verbal commitments, Anderson searched both locally and nationally to land prized student athletes.

Kreklow was the first to commit to the Tigers and won't have trouble finding Mizzou Arena. The 6'5' forward is a Columbia, MO native, whose parents coach the Mizzou volleyball team.

Kreklow recently told the Columbia Missourian that his family ties to the University of Missouri "definitely had an influence on my decision because I felt so comfortable around the school, and my parents have done a lot for me growing up. I'm just glad I have the opportunity to give them a chance to see me play in college."

Family ties didn't hurt Coach Anderson's ability to recruit Dallas, TX native Pressey either. The 5'10" point guard is the son of former NBA player and current New Orleans Hornets assistant coach Paul Pressey. While playing basketball at the University of Tulsa, the elder Pressey's teammate was a point guard by the name of Mike Anderson.

On having a connection with Coach Anderson, Phil Pressey told Gabe DeArmond at PowerMizzou.com that he committed partially "because I knew that he would look out for my best interests on and off the court."

So while it appears that every kid from Kansas City to St Louis is eager to play in Anderson's "Fastest 40 Minutes" system, high schools throughout the country are also hearing the Tiger roar.

Follow Evan on Twitter at http://twitter.com/MizzouHoops/

Poll

Which future Tiger do you feel has the most upside?

Ricky Kreklow

8 votes

Phil Pressey

26 votes

34 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-UConn: Statistical...so close

Bill C. — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 03:40:40 -0000

I guess we used up our luck with Marcus Denmon's 5 points (the bank shot and the 70-footer) at the end of the first half of the Memphis game. When the game was on the line, Mizzou's shots rimmed out and UConn's shots banked in. That was the difference. It's basketball.

All the credit in the world to UConn for making their free throws, grabbing the rebounds, and regaining their composure when Mizzou's pressure all but broke them down at the beginning of the second half, but in a game where both teams' styles dominated (Mizzou with the turnovers, UConn with the boards), the game came down to bounces, and UConn got them.

(You'd think the Sports God would have favored the underdog--especially one in the "Best program to never make the Final Four" race--but I guess after George Mason got the bounces over UConn in '06, UConn got the nod. Such is life.)

With that minor bout of self-pity out of the way, it's on to the stats!

NCAA Basketball Stats

	Mizzou	UConn
Points Per Minute	1.88	2.05
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.01	1.11
Points Per Shot (PPS)	0.99	1.55
2-PT FG%	46.6%	61.0%
3-PT FG%	27.8%	16.7%
FT%	50.0%	58.3%
True Shooting %	46.1%	61.1%

	Mizzou	UConn
Assists	21	15
Steals	10	3
Turnovers	6	17
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	5.17	1.06

	Mizzou	UConn
Expected Offensive Rebounds	17	10
Offensive Rebounds	12	11
Difference	-5	+1

Rarely do you see a game in which both teams' identities came out in such full force. MU dominated with its style (5.17 BCI), while UConn dominated with its style (+6 expected rebounds, major advantage in true shooting %). Mizzou had a couple of opportunities with open shots in the second half, but they just didn't fall.

Player Stats

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
J.T. Tiller	14.63	0.56	8 Pts, 5 Reb. 5 Ast, 2 Stl
Keith Ramsey	12.77	0.75	8 Pts, 3 Reb, 3 Ast, 2 Stl
Matt Lawrence	11.84	0.44	13 Pts, 3 Reb, 2 Ast
Leo Lyons	10.24	0.41	13 Pts, 2 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 Stl, 3 TO
Justin Safford	8.78	0.59	9 Pts, 4 Reb
Zaire Taylor	6.25	0.17	8 Pts, 2 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 Stl
DeMarre Carroll	6.12	0.25	12 Pts, 4 Reb
Marcus Denmon	2.53	0.18	2 Pts, 2 Reb, 2 Ast
Miguel Paul	2.26	0.45	2 Pts
Laurence Bowers	1.33	0.66	2 minutes
Michael Anderson Jr.	-0.53	-0.53	1 minute
Kim English	-4.26	-0.53	0 Pts, 2 Reb

If Mizzou had won this game, chances are very good that a guy scoring in single digits would have been the MVP. JT Tiller (8 points), Justin Safford (9) and Keith Ramsey (8) were freaking outstanding.
Really, a disappointing final game of the season for Kim English, but...yeah, without English Mizzou would have been knocked out in the second round.

Keys to the Game Revisited

From this morning's preview.

Pace. This was a 72-possession game. That slightly favored Mizzou, but not nearly enough. Mizzou sped UConn up a couple of times, but one more good run of craziness could have made the difference.
DeMarre & Leo's Points Per Shot. Leo & DeMarre's points per shot in the first three games of the tournament: 1.46. Today: 1.00. An average of 1.46 would have meant another 12 points. In a 7-point loss.
The last five minutes of the first half. In the last five minutes of the half, UConn outscored Mizzou, 14-10, with Hasheem Thabeet on the bench. Mizzou had two opportunities on which they just couldn't cash in, and this was one of them (the other being the five minutes after Mizzou took the lead in the second half and UConn was severely on the ropes).

Mizzou vs NCAA Tournament

	Mizzou	Opp
Points Per Minute	2.11	1.94
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.17	1.08
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.30	1.26
2-PT FG%	54.6%	50.0%
3-PT FG%	30.3%	25.8%
FT%	69.8%	72.5%
True Shooting %	55.7%	52.9%

	Mizzou	Opp
Assists/Gm	17.8	12.5
Steals/Gm	7.3	4.0
Turnovers/Gm	7.3	13.0
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	3.45	1.27

	Mizzou	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds/Gm	13.3	13.5
Offensive Rebounds/Gm	10.8	14.8
Difference	-2.5	+1.3

Really just an outstanding set of numbers for a 4-game set against Cornell, Marquette, Memphis and UConn. Mizzou established its identity and won basically every category but rebounding.

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
DeMarre Carroll	16.44	0.56	14.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.3 SPG
J.T. Tiller	15.76	0.52	13.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.3 APG, 2.0 SPG
Leo Lyons	14.93	0.51	17.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.0 APG
Matt Lawrence	8.74	0.33	11.0 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.0 SPG
Zaire Taylor	8.19	0.28	8.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.3 SPG
Kim English	7.14	0.66	9.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG
Keith Ramsey	4.12	0.37	3.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.3 APG
Justin Safford	4.06	0.43	4.0 PPG, 1.8 RPG
Marcus Denmon	1.60	0.11	3.0 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.3 APG
Steve Moore	1.60	1.60	1 minute
Laurence Bowers	1.35	0.34	8 minutes
Miguel Paul	0.46	0.07	0.5 PPG, 1.3 APG
Jarrett Sutton	0.00	0.00	<1 minute
Michael Anderson Jr.	-0.06	-0.06	2 minutes

Compared to season averages, here are the players who outplayed their season AdjGS/min averages in the NCAA Tournament: Kim English (+0.35), JT Tiller (+0.14), Justin Safford (+0.09), Keith Ramsey (+0.03).
Here are the players who didn't outplay their season average (some of which is to be expected considering the jump in competition): Marcus Denmon (-0.21), Laurence Bowers (-0.17, albeit in an extremely small sample size), Miguel Paul (-0.12), Leo Lyons (-0.07), Matt Lawrence (-0.07), DeMarre Carroll (-0.06), Zaire Taylor (-0.03).

Plenty will be written in the next few days about what this season meant, how much we'll miss these seniors, how bright the future may be, etc., but for now I'll just say that I hope people enjoyed these wrap-ups (and previews), I hope people came to understand the team more because of them, and...well...only eight months until your next basketball stat preview! Start the countdown, and after a few days of post-mortem posting, flip the switch to football season!

UConn: Know (Some More About) the Team Standing Between Mizzou and the Final Four...also, Links!

Bill C. — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 14:57:33 -0000

As we wait for the mid-afternoon tip-off, let's take a look at how UConn has done thus far in the NCAA Tournament. Consider this the companion piece to this week's earlier UConn preview.

But first...some Saturday morning Mizzou-UConn links!

(And just so you know, this post got much longer than I intended. Get comfortable.)

TheUConnBlog.com: Everybody cross your fingers and pray: #1 UConn vs #3 Missouri Preview
Hartford Courant: UConn-Missouri: Who will set the pace?
The Trib: Underdog is here

Calipari said Thursday that Missouri should take the same approach into today’s game against the even more heavily favored Huskies.

“You have to go in with the mind-set they went in with today, which is, ‘We can beat these guys,’ ” Calipari said. “I think what they did to us today in the first half, every 50-50 ball they got, every rough play, hands-on bumps, they just made those plays. … You are going to have to go in against a tough Connecticut team and do the same.”
The Trib: Avoid the long arm of Thabeet
The Trib: Game a study in contrasts
The Missourian: Missouri players keep mood light at NCAA Tournament
The Missourian: Connecticut's Thabeet big obstacle for Missouri
KC Star: This is a magical moment for Missouri
KC Star (Posnanski): This Missouri team is hard to hate
You probably know that Bill James, baseball writer extraordinaire, is an intense Kansas basketball fan. It is one of the obsessions of his life. He grew up in Kansas, went to school at Kansas, lives in Kansas, and he will refer to the Jayhawks as “we.” And as a Kansas fan, he takes very seriously all of his Jayhawk responsibilities.
“I hate Missouri basketball with a bottomless passion,” he says.

So, OK, Kansas fan hates Missouri? Great. News flash. What’s the point?

Only this: “I love this Missouri team,” Bill James says.
The Maneater: Missouri ready to outrun UConn's Thabeet
PowerMizzou: Thabeet presents big challenge to Tigers
PowerMizzou: Lawrence is just one step away
StatSheet.com: AP preview
Post-Dispatch: Missouri sizes up UConn's big man in NCAA Tournament
Post-Dispatch (Burwell): Young Tigers go old school
Post-Dispatch (Burwell): A little luck, Denmon says
Post-Dispatch (Bernie): MU team carries hopes of so many old Tigers
Upon Further Review: Thoughts from a Mizzou afterglow

Oh yeah, and...

The Trib: 'Bama hires VCU's Grant

Okay, NOW to UConn/Purdue...stats after the jump...

UConn vs Purdue

NCAA Basketball Stats

	UConn	Purdue
Points Per Minute	1.80	1.50
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.04	0.86
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.29	0.91
2-PT FG%	45.8%	41.9%
3-PT FG%	37.5%	26.1%
FT%	63.3%	54.5%
True Shooting %	52.0%	42.3%

	UConn	Purdue
Assists	19	12
Steals	6	7
Turnovers	13	9
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.92	2.11

	UConn	Purdue
Expected Offensive Rebounds	13	16
Offensive Rebounds	14	9
Difference	+1	-7

This game was basically played at UConn's favorite pace, and while the UConn offense was alright--52.0% true shooting, 1.92 BCI--it really wasn't much better than alright.
What made this game for the Huskies was complete and utter dominance on the boards. If you've been paying attention to my "Expected Offensive Rebounds" number, you've seen that anything over about +3 or +4 is a pretty big rebound margin. UConn was +8. Somehow Mizzou needs to figure out how to stay within +3 or +4 to have a chance. Good luck with that.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Hasheem Thabeet (7'3, 263, Jr.)	18.87	0.52	15 Pts (on 7 shots), 15 Reb (4 Off), 4 Blk, 4 TO
Craig Austrie (6'3, 176, Sr.)	17.97	0.56	17 Pts (on 6 shots), 2 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 TO
A.J. Price (6'2, 181, Sr.)	11.91	0.35	15 Pts, 4 Reb, 7 Ast, 2 Stl, 2 TO
Stanley Robinson (6'9, 210, Jr.)	11.01	0.30	10 Pts, 11 Reb, 2 Ast
Kemba Walker (6'1, 172, Fr.)	9.21	0.46	5 Pts, 3 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 Stl
Jim Veronick (6'8, 200, Sr.)	0.79	0.79	1 minute
Jeff Adrien (6'7, 243, Sr.)	0.67	0.02	8 Pts (on 13 shots), 6 Reb, 2 Ast, 3 TO
Gavin Edwards (6'9, 234, Jr.)	-0.22	-0.02	2 Pts
Donnell Beverly (6'4, 190, So.)	-0.79	-0.39	2 minutes
Scottie Haralson (6'4, 215, Fr.)	-0.79	-0.79	1 minute

Craig Austrie was insanely good against the Boilers. If UConn wins this game, I have the feeling we'll remember Austrie's or AJ Price's performance as much as we remember Hasheem Thabeet's, even if Thabeet is getting all the headlines (seriously, how many of those links above were about Thabeet and only Thabeet?).
Offensively, Thabeet was about as good as he can be--he averaged over 2 points per FG attempt and grabbed 4 offensive rebounds. Thabeet's major big-man counterpart, Jeff Adrien, was highly ineffective against the Boilers, but he's still been quite good overall in the tourney. One thing to notice, however, is that Thabeet and Adrien combined for 7 turnovers. I like that number. I like 8 or 9 even more.

UConn vs the NCAA Tournament

	UConn	Opp
Points Per Minute	2.23	1.44
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.24	0.80
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.45	0.89
2-PT FG%	57.0%	40.2%
3-PT FG%	33.3%	22.2%
FT%	65.6%	65.8%
True Shooting %	59.0%	40.9%

	UConn	Opp
Assists/Gm	22.3	13.3
Steals/Gm	7.0	5.0
Turnovers/Gm	10.7	11.7
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	2.75	1.57

	UConn	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds/Gm	12.3	15.7
Offensive Rebounds/Gm	14.3	10.0
Difference	+2.0	-5.7

Clearly these numbers are somewhat skewed by the first round game against Chattanooga, but you can still see what UConn's modus operandi is: ball control and rebounding. If Mizzou's jumper is cold, they're probably screwed.

Player	AdjGS/Gm	GmSc/Min	Line
A.J. Price	15.89	0.51	20.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.7 SPG, 3.0 TOPG
Hasheem Thabeet	15.27	0.60	13.7 PPG, 10.7 RPG (3.0 Off), 2.7 BPG, 1.0 SPG, 2.3 TOPG
Stanley Robinson	13.91	0.41	15.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG (2.7 Off), 1.0 APG
Jeff Adrien	11.06	0.36	14.7 PPG, 10.0 RPG (3.7 Off), 2.3 APG, 1.0 BPG, 2.7 TOPG
Craig Austrie	10.16	0.35	7.7 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.7 SPG
Kemba Walker	9.98	0.44	7.7 PPG, 2.7 PPG, 4.7 APG, 1.3 SPG
Gavin Edwards	6.33	0.40	5.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG (1.7 Off), 1.0 APG
Donnell Beverly	3.76	0.94	3.0 PPG, 1.7 APG
Jim Veronick	1.18	1.18	3 minutes
Scottie Haralson	0.31	0.10	9 minutes
John Lindner	-0.05	-0.03	3 minutes
Jonathan Mandeldove	-0.21	-0.10	4 minutes
Johnnie Bird	-0.21	-0.14	3 minutes

With Beverly only playing a few minutes a game, UConn's been playing with a 7.5-man rotation in the tournament. If the game is played at UConn's pace, and there are a lot of whistles, Missouri will be facing a majorly up-and-down battle. But I have the feeling they'll be sprinting the ball down court after every UConn basket (and miss) and trying to beat UConn's bigs to the basket and wear UConn's guards out. It's not a guaranteed success, clearly, but if they can do that a few times, and if there aren't a ton of stoppages, UConn will be clutching their shorts just like Memphis was.
Austrie, Thabeet and Price have been combining for eight turnovers a game in the tourney. Make that 10-12, and Mizzou is in serious business.

Keys to the Game

Pace. Consider the number of possessions the same way you consider the speed limit--70 could be a major benchmark. If Mizzou sucks UConn into speeding, Mizzou is in control--over 70 is a Mizzou advantage, way over 70 a major Mizzou advantage. Under 70, and UConn is probably going to win. Missouri is capable of winning slower games--their three Big 12 Tourney wins only averaged in the mid-60s. But with UConn's halfcourt prowess, the speed and transition game will be huge, not only because UConn is a thin team, but because UConn is a BIG team that has a length and size advantage in the halfcourt.
DeMarre & Leo's Points Per Shot. A high points-per-shot figure means one of two things: 1) either you're shooting a very high % from the field, or 2) you're drawing fouls and making free throws. DeMarre and Leo (and the team as a whole, clearly) will have to either shoot very efficiently or draw some fouls for Mizzou to score enough points today. That 17-foot jumper has to be going through the net. If it's not--if either or both of them start out pretty cold (because you know they'll both take a couple mid- to long-range jumpers pretty quickly--they always do), and if Mizzou isn't drawing fouls off of Thabeet and/or Adrien, then Mizzou might find themselves in trouble because, well, they will get outrebounded in this game.
The last five minutes of the first half. The rules for Missouri games have somewhat changed in the NCAA Tourney--until a week ago, the goal for Missouri was not to find themselves down big at half, then watch the opponent melt down in the second half. Now, it's been "kill 'em in the first half, hold on for dear life in the second." Whichever of the two trends emerges against UConn, the last five minutes of the first half (or, roughly speaking, Round 5 of the 10-round fight) will determine the way the second half unfolds.

In Mizzou losses, opponents have sprinted to the finish and turned an 8-12 point Mizzou deficit into a 15-19 point deficit. In the NCAA Tourney, it's been the exact opposite. If Mizzou's bench comes ready to play, they can take advantage of a UConn lineup that's breathing pretty heavily, so I guess you could say that a big first-half performance from Kim English, or Marcus Denmon, or Justin Safford, or Laurence Bowers, or more than one, could make the game for Mizzou.

Prediction

As I've mentioned before, I tend to try to project a pace and a Points Per Possession figure for each team, then figure out what that score projects. (Possessions x Points Per Possession = Points.) I'm at a complete loss to project Mizzou's points per possession in this one. It's been so high all year, and it was through the roof against a very good Memphis team. But as high as Mizzou's PPP has been, UConn's opponents' PPP has been equally low. I'll more or less split the difference and say that Mizzou will end up around the 1.05 PPP mark. They really could end up anywhere between about 0.95 and 1.15.

Meanwhile, I think UConn has a bit more margin for error (just like I said Memphis did). They'll most likely fall between about 1.03 and 1.13). So we'll say 1.08 for UConn. At a pace of 72 possessions, that's UConn 78, Mizzou 76, a prediction quite similar to mine for the Memphis game. And the Memphis game worked out just fine, wouldn't you say? So 78-76 UConn it is.

Like most Mizzou games, a comfortable margin of victory is likely no matter who wins--Mizzou pressing the pace means larger momentum swings both ways, and when you think about it, Mizzou just hasn't played that many truly close games this year (Marquette, KU, @Texas, @OSU, @Nebraska, Xavier...and that's about it?). They've come through big-time in the clutch, and I like their chances here, but if they play 10 times, UConn probably wins 6-7, and I'm playing the odds here. Prove me wrong, boys.

(Oh yeah, and be sure to confess your sins.)

Mizzou-Memphis: Statistical Hello World

Bill C. — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 15:30:07 -0000

Hello, world. We're the Missouri Tigers, the most likable, enjoyable team remaining in the NCAA Tournament. You want to get behind us. You want to root for these guys. You do. Trust me.

This team never ceases to surprise me. JT Tiller might have a broken hand? He puts up a career high. DeMarre Carroll turns his ankle Wednesday? He puts together one of his most impressive performances ever in the press and the zone. Marcus Denmon's foot was on the line? He backs up 45 feet and tries again. i have no idea how we're going to try to match up with UConn, and while I'm not tremendously optimistic about the prospects...well...why do I have any reason not to believe in this team?

To the stats!

NCAA Basketball Stats

	Mizzou	Memphis
Points Per Minute	2.55	2.28
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.24	1.11
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.65	1.32
2-PT FG%	58.7%	59.3%
3-PT FG%	37.5%	20.0%
FT%	66.7%	58.3%
True Shooting %	62.3%	54.8%

	Mizzou	Memphis
Assists	17	16
Steals	9	8
Turnovers	12	14
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	2.17	1.71

	Mizzou	Memphis
Expected Offensive Rebounds	13	14
Offensive Rebounds	12	15
Difference	-1	+1

How we ended up that close on the boards, I have no idea. It felt like Memphis was getting three shots every possession, but really it was Mizzou's work on the glass that allowed them to win the game.
New rule: when Mizzou has a True Shooting % of 62.3%, they will win 100% of the time. And they'll probably NEED to shoot that well against UConn.
I was actually a bit surprised by Memphis' assist total. It seemed like most of their success came on one-on-one drives to the hole and putbacks, but whaddo I know...
This game was played at an 83-possession pace. For all we heard about how Memphis loved to run, their average pace was only about 66 possessions. We sucked them into playing our game, and it worked. We get UConn to play that fast, it'll work then too. Control the pace, control the game. Purdue sped UConn up a smidge (70 possessions, season avg: 67.9), but Mizzou will probably need to get it up to at least 73-75 to have a chance.

Player Stats

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
J.T. Tiller	25.65	0.73	23 Pts (on 16 shots), 4 Reb, 3 Ast, 3 Stl
DeMarre Carroll	20.62	0.71	17 Pts, 6 Reb, 6 Ast, 2 Stl, 4 PF
Zaire Taylor	16.69	0.76	14 Pts (on 7 shots), 4 Reb, 2 Stl
Leo Lyons	12.64	0.44	15 Pts, 12 Reb, 2 Ast, 2 Blk, 5 PF
Matt Lawrence	10.43	0.39	13 Pts, 3 Reb, 3 TO
Justin Safford	7.00	0.54	7 Pts
Kim English	4.42	0.37	6 Pts, 2 Ast
Marcus Denmon	3.19	0.29	5 Pts, 1 soul-crushing half-courter
Laurence Bowers	1.47	0.25	2 Pts, 3 PF
Miguel Paul	-0.98	-0.08	0 Pts
Keith Ramsey	-1.47	-0.49	0 Pts, 3 PF

Jesus Tyrannosaurus Tiller was simply ridiculous last night. Solid perimeter defense, typical mix of steals, rebounds and assists...oh yeah, and 23 points on 10-for-16 shooting (and the most beautifully pure-looking 3-pointer of his life). He played the game of his life, and he did it when national eyes were on Missouri*.

* Yes, I realize Duke was playing at the same time, so probably only about 4% of the country was watching Memphis-Missouri. Regardless.
The performances of DeMarre and Leo were very important (neither played their A+ game, but they repeatedly figured out ways to contribute), but the game really was made by Tiller and Zaire Taylor's drives to the basket.

Clearly a new offensive strategy will be in the works against UConn's fearsome interior defense, but that's the thing about this team--so many guys step up every game that Mike Anderson is able to tweak the offensive approach from game to game. JT Tiller was this game's main offensive cog, but if I'm writing another happy game wrap-up on Sunday, I guarantee Tiller will have ended up scoring like 9 points and someone else will have gone for 16, 18, or 20. Almost everybody on this team has caught fire offensively at some point this season, and you never know who will from game to game...but the odds are good that somebody will.
DeMarre's stat line in this game might be the prettiest thing I've ever seen from JYD. Clearly he was his typical JYD self with 17 points on 11 shots and 3 offensive rebounds, but his passing has just been transcendent, both last night and in the tourney as a whole. His 6 assists really weren't even that far over his average--for the tourney now, he has 14 assists to 2 turnovers. Two turnovers! From DeMarre! Oh yeah, and he has 5 steals. That's a 9.50 BCI for our starting power forward.
Leo just could not find his range last night and had to fight and scrap for every point he scored. You won't see many "2-for-10 FGs, 13 points" lines in your lifetime. Even free throws were a struggle last night, but he persevered and got better from the line as the game wore on.

Oh, and his no-look bullet pass to Goose in the corner, for the 3-pointer that put us up 24, was unbelievable. It looked good in real-time, but the more I see it, the more I realize how high the degree of difficulty was on that.
Goose brought his jumper to Arizona. Awesome. We're going to need it Saturday afternoon in a major way.
While I still think Laurence Bowers has the highest upside and is the most likely Leo replacement in 2009-10, I just can't say enough about how Justin Safford has played in the last three weeks. Memphis had a decent amount of momentum when Safford stepped onto the court in the first half last night, and his 3-pointer and layup were huge keys to Mizzou establishing momentum of their own. He didn't contribute anything else to the box score (besides 1 foul), but his 3-for-3 shooting was a major catalyst for Mizzou.
Congrats to Marcus Denmon, for earning a nickname last night. Pending any objections, it's Soulcrusher Denmon from this point on.
Miguel Paul didn't really contribute anything to the box score beyond two missed shots, but along with Denmon and English, he contributed some key minutes on the floor when Zaire Taylor was immediately hit with first-half foul trouble. Even if he still takes a dumb shot or two, there's no doubt that he's figuring out more and more ways to contribute to the team's success, as exemplified by the fact that Mizzou's lead increased with Paul on the floor.
Mizzou's big men (JYD, Lyons, Safford, Bowers, Ramsey) combined for 16 fouls last night. Foul trouble could be something to watch tomorrow. Sending Thabeet (63% FT) and Adrien (60%) to the line might be a decent strategy, especially since they only went a combined 5-for-10 yesterday from the line, but it's a balancing act making sure JYD and Lyons stay out of trouble.

Mizzou vs NCAA Tournament

	Mizzou	Opp
Points Per Minute	2.19	1.91
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.23	1.07
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.42	1.19
2-PT FG%	58.3%	46.9%
3-PT FG%	31.0%	28.0%
FT%	72.6%	68.8%
True Shooting %	59.2%	50.5%

	Mizzou	Opp
Assists/Gm	16.7	11.7
Steals/Gm	6.3	4.3
Turnovers/Gm	7.7	11.7
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	3.00	1.37

	Mizzou	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds/Gm	12.3	14.7
Offensive Rebounds/Gm	10.3	16.0
Difference	-2.0	+1.3

Mostly because of rebounding, Mizzou opponents are actually doing pretty well offensively on a per-possession basis thus far. The only problem for them: Mizzou is scoring at a ridiculously efficient clip. 1.23 points per possession? After games against Marquette and Memphis? Really?

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
DeMarre Carroll	19.62	0.63	15.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.7 SPG, 1.0 BPG
Leo Lyons	16.40	0.54	18.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.0 BPG
J.T. Tiller	16.16	0.50	14.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.0 SPG
Kim English	10.61	0.91	12.0 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 1.0 APG
Zaire Taylor	8.80	0.32	8.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.0 SPG
Matt Lawrence	7.84	0.30	10.3 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 SPG
Justin Safford	2.65	0.35	2.3 PPG, 1.0 RPG
Steve Moore	1.57	1.57	1 minute
Keith Ramsey	1.53	0.17	1.3 PPG, 1.0 RPG
Laurence Bowers	1.45	0.24	6 minutes
Marcus Denmon	1.33	0.09	3.3 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 1.0 APG
Michael Anderson Jr.	0.36	0.36	1 minute
Jarrett Sutton	0.00	0.00	1 minute
Miguel Paul	-0.08	-0.01	0.0 PPG, 1.3 APG

DeMarre Carroll is just fantastic. That is all.

Alright, I already threw together a UConn primer earlier in the week, but stay tuned later on this afternoon/evening for a UConn-Mizzou specific preview...M-I-Z!

You Never Know

Bill C. — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 14:00:10 -0000

I'm not going to lie. Four months ago, I was worried about this basketball program. And it really didn't even have that much to do with the team on the court. I was happy about the new blood, I thought a low seed in the NCAA Tournament was at least plausible enough to aim for it, and I still thought Mike Anderson really might be able to put together some winning records here.

That said, I was worried about the program as a whole, meaning fans, attendance, money generated, etc. There had been two entire four-year classes ('04-'07, '05-'08) that had come to the university and graduated without seeing their team go to the NCAA Tournament. That hadn't happened since well before I was born. The thought of having a great basketball program was something of a joke (I think we even made some of those jokes on RMN in a football podcast way back when). I mean, hell, look at how hard we were struggling to find great, encouraging things to say about the team not that long ago. Even if we snuck into the tourney as a 10-seed or something, would anybody notice? That's the basketball version of making the Independence Bowl. Would a connection still have been made?

Now look at us. Again, I'm not necessarily talking about the 30 wins, the Sweet Sixteen, and the Big 12 Tournament title, though that's been absolutely fantastic. I'm talking about more than that. In just four months (and really, it's been less than three), this university has grown to love its basketball team again.

Everything that happened to connect Mizzou Football to its fans in the last couple of years--the personalities (Daniel, 'Spoon, MotherRucker), the sick athletes (Maclin, Willy Mo), the wins (I don't know if you've heard this, but we won 30 games in three years), the forever-memorable moments (Sod Reesing, the Cotton Bowl, Maclin's kick returns, Coffman's nunchuk thrusts), the SI covers--has happened to Missouri basketball. Personality? This team has DeMarre's hair, and Leo's humor, and Goose's self-deprecation, and Zaire sticking out his tongue, and JT Tiller's lack of regard for human life. Wins? This team has more wins than any Mizzou squad has ever compiled. Moments? How about the win over Kansas? Kim English's free-throws against Marquette? Zaire's drive against Texas? Laurence Bowers' SportsCenter dunks? Goose's clutch 3's in the Big 12 tourney? JT Tiller's jump balls against Kansas? Is that enough for you? How about the win in Stillwater? The absolute destruction of team after team in Mizzou Arena? JYD's timely putbacks? Hell, they even had a (regional) SI cover as well.

How far have we come? Four months ago, Zaire Taylor was a decent defensive point guard who didn't shoot enough. Now he's Mr. Coffee. Always Be Closing. Four months ago, Laurence Bowers was a thin, anonymous freshman forward with some athletic ability. Now he's the Party Starter. Four months ago, Kim English was a lovable gymrat who talked a big game but had plenty to learn about how to play college basketball. Now he's put together possibly the most successful, most memorable postseason performance ever for a Mizzou freshman.

And it goes on. Four months ago, Matt Lawrence was a much-maligned three-point specialist who, for long stretches of time, couldn't even seem to specialize in three-pointers. He was given the nickname of Grey Goose, and not necessarily as a compliment. Now he's GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSE!! Four months ago, DeMarre Carroll was a scrappy player, fun to watch, but limited in size and shooting ability. Now he's JYD, a rangy, rugged all-conference forward in a conference full of great forwards.

Four months ago, JT Tiller was an intense, rather out-of-control guard who had brilliant stretches of defensive play among brainfarts and foul trouble. Now, he's not only Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, but (listen up, Marquette fans) also a ballsy, clutch shooter (see: two FTs against Marquette with 90 seconds left, go-ahead jumper against KU with 50 seconds left).

And then there's Leo. Four months ago, Leo Lyons was an enigmatic, moody, rather schizophrenic player who could be amazing one moment and pouting on the bench for most of a game the next. Now, he's Good Leo, an enigmatic, moody, rather schizophrenic player who has been amazing for most of his only NCAA Tournament, who never turned his brain off after getting pushed and hacked for a good portion of the second half against Marquette, and who persevered in the form of a clutch 3-point play and three big-time free throws in the last minute. Against heavy odds, Leo will end up being remembered for his play down the stretch of his senior season* instead of the suspensions and frustrating tendencies of his first 3.5 seasons.

* And for Leo Lyons' Planet.

And possibly most importantly, four months ago, Mike Anderson was a likable coach who brought an entertaining brand of basketball to Columbia, but who hadn't shown many game-coaching chops, had briefly let bad characters take over his program, and was already having his name come up in the "I'm not saying he has to win this season, but he might not get more than four seasons if Mizzou doesn't start to improve" type of speculation. No one knew if his style would work in the Big 12, if his program would be able to attract the caliber of athletes it would take to succeed with his style, if he would be able to guide Mizzou to the NCAA Tourney, or if the fans would ever come back en masse to Mizzou Arena.

Now, he's the subject of the "Other teams want our coach because he's so great" type of speculation. If there's a cloud in the Mizzou sky right now, it's because of the lingering (and small) possibility that he still may be coaching elsewhere next year. But that cloud is slowly dissipating, and besides...next year is next year, and memories don't go away. Missouri is back, and it is because of Mike Anderson.

I mentioned yesterday that when Missouri faces a game they're supposed to lose, I start getting defiantly confident as game time approaches. But despite my own confidence, I realize that when Missouri and Memphis tip off at 8:37(ish) tonight, it very well might be the last time we see Leo Lyons, DeMarre Carroll, and Matt Lawrence in a Missouri uniform. Hell, I doubt it, but this could be the last time we see Mike Anderson roaming the Missouri sideline. A lot could change after tonight, but what won't is the simple fact that Missouri loves its basketball again, and watching and feeling this unexpected connection this team's players and coaches--every single one of them--has been one of the most rewarding experiences I've had as a fan.

Once again, I'm not going to lie. I look at these pictures, and as they say, it gets a little dusty in my house. It's hard to believe that something so simple (sports team wins games, fans rejoice) could end up being so emotionally, and unexpectedly, satisfying as this 2008-09 basketball season has been. Win or lose tonight, the impact has been made. You truly never know when seasons like this will come about (if they ever will, or if they ever will again), and while you live your life as a sports fan full of hope and faith (and lots of frustration), you have to hold closely the great moments that do happen, and there's just no question that I'll remember every moment of this season for a long, long time. To DeMarre Carroll, Leo Lyons, Matt Lawrence, Zaire Taylor, J.T. Tiller, Kim English, Laurence Bowers, Justin Safford, Keith Ramsey, Marcus Denmon, Miguel Paul, Steve Moore, Jarrett Sutton, and Michael Anderson Jr., I salute you.

(Or as Norman Dale would say, "I love you guys.")

But all that said, why don't we keep this train rolling for another few games?

Mizzou-Marquette: Statistical Onions

Bill C. — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 14:00:11 -0000

I loved most of the post title suggestions here (and here, and here), but a) I couldn't really decide on one in particular (though Statistical Over the Line was nicely mean and Lebowski-lovely), and b) when you outscore your opponent 9-1 in the last two minutes to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, your testicular fortitude must be acknowledged.

NCAA Basketball Stats

	Mizzou	Marquette
Points Per Minute	2.08	1.98
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.18	1.13
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.30	1.32
2-PT FG%	57.1%	39.1%
3-PT FG%	31.8%	35.7%
FT%	70.0%	84.8%
True Shooting %	57.0%	53.0%

	Mizzou	Marquette
Assists	14	8
Steals	6	4
Turnovers	7	12
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	2.86	1.00

	Mizzou	Marquette
Expected Offensive Rebounds	13	14
Offensive Rebounds	10	16
Difference	-3	+2

Lost in the second half offensive struggles was how efficient Mizzou was in this game (thanks mostly to Kim English, I guess). Marquette isn't a wonderful defensive team, but they played fantastically in the second half, and Mizzou still managed 1.18 points per possession, 7 turnovers and a true shooting % of 57.0%. People always talk about Mizzou's full-court defense, but while that defense led to some easy possessions, Mizzou's offensive efficiency continues to get overlooked.
Ahh, BCI. How did I ever live without you? This game came down to Mizzou's BCI versus Marquette's rebounding, and that battle was pretty much a draw. I think you'll see a similar dynamic against Memphis, but we'll take a look at that later on.
Then again, BCI led to Marquette's comeback as well.

1st Half BCI: Mizzou 8.00, Marquette 0.40
2nd Half BCI: Marquette 4.00, Mizzou 0.80
Stats from the last 1:59:

Points: Mizzou 9, Marquette 1
Free Throws: Mizzou 7-for-7, Marquette 1-for-2
Rebounds: Mizzou 3 (including team rebounds), Marquette 0
Turnovers: Marquette 1, Mizzou 0

Onions!

Player Stats

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
DeMarre Carroll	19.71	0.58	15 Pts, 8 Reb, 3 Ast
Matt Lawrence	14.75	0.55	16 Pts, 3 Reb
Kim English	14.09	1.17	17 Pts
J.T. Tiller	13.57	0.42	10 Pts, 3 Reb, 3 Ast, 3 Stl
Leo Lyons	12.01	0.36	18 Pts, 4 Reb
Zaire Taylor	4.05	0.15	4 Pts, 4 Reb, 2 Ast
Miguel Paul	1.31	0.26	0 Pts, 2 Ast
Keith Ramsey	1.17	0.12	0 Pts, 2 Reb, 2 Ast
Marcus Denmon	1.17	0.08	3 Pts, 2 Reb
Justin Safford	-1.04	-0.21	0 Pts

Kim English worked his way into Mizzou Tiger lore with this game, but the win was about so much more than Kimmeh. For one thing, he only played 12 minutes--without those 12 minutes, Mizzou wouldn't have won, but that leaves 28 minutes that he wasn't on the court. For another, he was only Mizzou's #3 player from an AdjGS perspective.
JYD disappeared for chunks of the first half (only 4 points at half), but while guys like English, Lyons and Tiller stole the headlines, all DeMarre did in the second half was go 4-for-4 from the field, score 11 points and grab 4 rebounds. He cleans up the trash, and Mizzou wouldn't have won without him.
Matt Lawrence may have left his shot in Columbia, but he made the biggest 3-point attempt of his life with 5:10 left, when Marquette had taken a 1-point lead and had all the momentum. Goose also took advantage of the fact that Marquette was overplaying him around the 3-point line--he drove on multiple occasions and went 5-for-5 from inside the arc...and Mizzou wouldn't have won without him.
Leo Lyons was majorly off-kilter at the beginning of the second half, missing a series of awkward looking shots. Plus, as one of Mizzou's major big men, he was out of position on quite a few Marquette shots, allowing the Golden Eagles to grab far too many offensive rebounds (JYD was also a culprit here). But despite Marquette's defense being allowed to get very physical inside, Leo never quit, and he not only scored on a huge putback with 0:48 left, but he also went 3-for-3 from the FT line in the last minute. Mizzou wouldn't have won without him.
Marquette fans will misguidedly remember JT Tiller for the free throws he didn't take in this game, but he made two gigantic ones with 1:50 left (making the whole "They brought in a better FT shooter!!!!" cry a bit weak...especially since Tiller also has a better FT% on the season, but whatever), and along with the typical Tiller stat line (3 reb, 3 ast, 3 stl), it's safe to say...Mizzou wouldn't have won without him.
Zaire Taylor was only 2-for-7 from the field and managed only two assists while fighting off foul trouble, but with Mizzou shocked and exhausted in the huddle during a timeout, Mr. Coffee reminded everybody to stay loose and win the game. It was a good enough pep talk that Leo mentioned it after the game. Oh yeah, Taylor also grabbed the huge offensive rebound that led to Lyons' 3-point play with 0:48 left. You guessed it--Mizzou wouldn't have won without him.
If I have one complaint in this game, it's that Mike Anderson did not use his bench nearly enough. Mizzou made a major move in the first half with guys like Kimmeh, Keith Ramsey and Marcus Denmon on the court, but the Mizzou bench played only 47 minutes yesterday--a pretty low total for them. It almost backfired when Mizzou's starters appeared to start to run out of gas down the stretch (DeMarre played 34 minutes, Leo 33, Tiller 32, Goose 27, Taylor 27), but power to them for sucking it up and making the plays. Against an even more physical, athletic team in Memphis, Anderson will need to use the bench better (and having Party Starter Bowers back will help...I assume Bowers will be back by then).

Mizzou vs NCAA Tournament

	Mizzou	Opp
Points Per Minute	2.01	1.73
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.22	1.05
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.31	1.11
2-PT FG%	51.5%	37.3%
3-PT FG%	31.8%	35.7%
FT%	79.5%	77.8%
True Shooting %	57.4%	48.0%

	Mizzou	Opp
Assists	33	19
Steals	10	5
Turnovers	11	21
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	3.91	1.14

	Mizzou	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	24	30
Offensive Rebounds	19	33
Difference	-5	+3

It's funny how things have become exaggerated in the tourney--Mizzou has an even starker BCI advantage than in the regular season, and they're getting outrebounded at a higher rate as well.
Underrated stat: opponents are shooting 37.3% from 2-point range in the tourney against Mizzou. A lot of that is probably luck (Marquette missed a lot of bunnies early in the second half), but don't underestimate how well guys like Leo Lyons obstruct shots with good straight-up defense.

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
DeMarre Carroll	19.08	0.59	14.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.5 SPG, 1.0 BPG
Leo Lyons	18.19	0.59	20.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.0 APG
Kim English	13.60	1.18	15.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG
J.T. Tiller	11.51	0.38	10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.5 SPG
Matt Lawrence	6.56	0.25	9.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 SPG
Zaire Taylor	4.95	0.16	6.0 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.5 APG
Keith Ramsey	2.98	0.25	2.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.0 APG
Steve Moore	1.55	1.55	1 minute
Justin Safford	0.54	0.11	0.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG
Marcus Denmon	0.42	0.03	2.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.5 APG
Miguel Paul	0.36	0.07	0.0 PPG, 1.5 APG
Michael Anderson Jr.	0.36	0.36	1 minute
Jarrett Sutton	0.00	0.00	<1 minute

Ten years from now, ask a random Mizzou fan how many points Kim English averaged his freshman year, and the typical answer would probably be in the 10-12 PPG range. The way Kimmeh has played in his first two NCAA tournament games are how you create legends/myths and quickly work your way into Mizzou lore. I've seen Kimmeh compared to Jimmy McKinney a few times, in terms of how much leadership they showed as freshmen, but in his two NCAA tourney games, McKinney shot 4-for-12 with 11 points. English has done just a hair better than that.

SB Nation - Marcus Denmon

Study Hall: Mizzou-Truman State

Mizzou 96, Truman State 33

Player Stats

Keys to the Game Revisited

Summary

Know Your Rival: Truman State

Last YearTruman State: 6-21

As a refresher...Mizzou: 31-7

Keys to the Game

Prediction

Which Mizzou player will you be watching most closely tonight?

Mizzou Links, 11-6-09

Rosters Set for Mizzou's Black and Gold Game

Who will win the Mizzou Black & Gold game?

The Black Squad

The Gold Squad

With Jarrett Sutton playing on both teams, it is too hard to predcit.

Missouri's Recruiting Reach

Which future Tiger do you feel has the most upside?

Ricky Kreklow

Phil Pressey

Mizzou-UConn: Statistical...so close

Player Stats

Keys to the Game Revisited

Mizzou vs NCAA Tournament

UConn: Know (Some More About) the Team Standing Between Mizzou and the Final Four...also, Links!

UConn vs Purdue

UConn vs the NCAA Tournament

Keys to the Game

Prediction

Mizzou-Memphis: Statistical Hello World

Player Stats

Mizzou vs NCAA Tournament

You Never Know

Mizzou-Marquette: Statistical Onions

Player Stats

Mizzou vs NCAA Tournament

Last Year
Truman State: 6-21

As a refresher...
Mizzou: 31-7