SB Nation - Brad Tinsley

Periscope: Vanderbilt vs. DePaul

KingJamesIV — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 03:57:01 -0000

More photos » by Brennan Linsley - AP

Considering the dreadful season DePaul had last year, the Blue Demons have begun their 2010 season in a much better fashion at 5-1. Seeing that DePaul won 9 games all last season and none during Big East conference play, College Basketball experts took notice when DePaul went toe-to-toe with Tennessee in a 57-53 Paradise Jam semi-finals loss.

Unfortunately for DePaul, a left foot injury to junior big man Mac Koshwal (6'11", 255lbs, 15ppg, 13rpg) leaves him sidelined for a few weeks, leaving DePaul noticeably thin in the middle. This wasn't too much of an issue in their last game, a victory over Alabama State, but it should figure much more glaringly against AJ Ogilvy and Vanderbilt.

TSN Preview

DePaul has won its last three games to move to 5-1 overall, and the most recent triumph came over Alabama State on Wednesday by a 58-50 final. The fact that no opponent has scored more than 57 points against the Blue Demons in a regulation game this season speaks to the strength of the club's defense. The lone loss came against Tennessee back on November 22nd by four points.

Interesting Note: Three days after defeating Missouri - "The Fastest 40 Minutes In Basketball" - Vanderbilt faces the second slowest-paced team (58.3 possessions/game [adjusted] - 346 of 347 teams) in DePaul. Where Missouri wants to push the tempo, wear down an opponent, and cause turnovers, DePaul makes up for it's deficiencies by slowing things down and eliminating opportunities to score. With such a slow pace, it's no wonder DePaul limits teams to 55 ppg, good enough for 6th overall.

Statistical Breakdown:

Keep in mind that Mac Koshwal has starter-type numbers and is being grouped with the bench players in that analysis. So what does that graph tell us? Vandy is much more efficient with the ball offensively (when adjusted for the contrasting tempos) and is slightly more efficient defensively.

You don't really need to look at statistics to see that Vandy is a pretty heavy favorite in this game. Vegas lines opened with Vanderbilt as a 17 point home favorite.

Commodore Keys

Offensive Movement - The slower paced Blue Demons will give the Dores an opportunity to really work the half-court offense. In the first few games, after the opposing team would stop the Vanderbilt primary and secondary breaks, the offense felt stagnant. Players away from the ball didn't seem to be helping out the ball-handler by getting into position for an uncontested pass. I'm sure a large part of this was due to Missouri's pressure defense. I think it's about time this team began to assert its will offensively.
3 Point Shooting - In the season opener against Lipscomb, Stallings mentioned that he thought 41% was a subpar evening. On paper, that's definitely the case. Jermaine Beal, Brad Tinsley, and John Jenkins are all outstanding outside shooters. However, in games the team is only hitting on 34% of their outside shots (37 of 109). I have to attribute this to the stagnancy in the offense. Move the ball effectively in the half-court sets and shots are bound to start falling with the success rate that Vandy fans have been expecting.
Eliminate Turnovers - You cannot turn the ball over when you know that is the #1 action item on your opponents game plan. When Vanderbilt took care of the ball, Missouri had trouble stopping the offense and creating offensive opportunities on the other end. Halve the turnovers and Vandy wins that game by 20.

It sure will be nice to watch this team begin to play to their potential. It's just a matter of time until they begin to realize how good they can truly be. I see no reason why that can't happen against DePaul.

Gameday Links:

Stallings wants 'Dores to learn to hold a lead | Nashville City Paper

"For us to stay steady, stay composed and everybody keep our calm – it was important for us (Wednesday) night," senior guard Jermaine Beal said. "I guess you could say everybody on our team is more mature. Last year, a game like that our team probably would have folded or lost. Who knows?"

MBB Welcomes DePaul To Memorial Gym | VANDERBILT OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE

Preview: Vanderbilt - DePaul | Dore Posts

DePaul Travels to Vanderbilt for Saturday Matinee | DePaul Athletics

I'll update this post with any other game stories I find that are published tomorrow morning.

Updated Gameday Links:

DePaul's Coming to Memorial: VSL Gets You Ready | Vanderbilt Sports Line

Previewing DePaul at Vanderbilt | VandySports.com (Rivals - Premium)

Demons Begone! Vanderbilt vs. DePaul Preview | VandyMania (Scout)

Vanderbilt men trying to work out kinks | tennessean.com | The Tennessean

"If you look at their scores, they're playing games in the 50s," Stallings said. "They're going to try to get you to be impatient and get you to play defense for a long period of time. And then hopefully when you get the ball on offense, you lose your patience and then you give it back to them quickly.

Basketball bites heading into the DePaul game at Vanderbilt | The Tennessean

Another 2004 flash back: Matt Freiji is a Commodore and goes for back-to-back games with a double-double. Maybe it doesn't seem all that big a feat, but no other Vander bilt pla yer pos ted a double-double stat line in consecutive games until sophomore forward Jeffery Taylor did it Wednesday with 18 points and 11 boards. He went for 13 and 10 against Arizona.

As always, post your predictions below and make sure to head over to Stat-King to vote on who you think will be the best performing Commodore against the Blue Demons.

Poll

What will the winning margin be?

Vanderbilt by more than 10

5 votes

Vanderbilt by 10 or less

2 votes

DePaul by 10 or less

1 votes

DePaul by more than 10

1 votes

9 votes | Poll has closed

Postgame: Vanderbilt 89, Missouri 83

KingJamesIV — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 19:03:29 -0000

More photos » by Mark Humphrey - AP

Browse more photos »

I must say that despite how uncomfortable Missouri made the final five minutes of this game for the Commodores, I never truly felt that Vandy was going to let them steal this one. Give Missouri and Coach Anderson credit. Despite being in a hostile atmosphere down 14 points with 5:29 left to play, they never stopped giving their full effort or believing in themselves and nearly came away with a hard-fought road victory as a result.

Elmer's Glue Guy Of The Game

Andre Walker (6 pts, 12 rebs, 4 asts, 3 blks, 2 stls)

Relevant Links:

Game Page /// TSN Recap /// Box Score /// Official Vanderbilt Recap

Game Stories:

Commodores shake off road woes, fend off Missouri rally | Nashville City Paper

Missouri managed just three offensive rebounds in the first half and one in the first 14-plus minutes of the second. The one-and-done approach had a lot to do with the fact that Vanderbilt stretched a six-point halftime lead to 78-64 after an Ogilvy put-back.

Vanderbilt manages to beat Missouri | tennessean.com | The Tennessean

"I didn't think if we turned the ball over 24 times against them we would win," Vanderbilt Coach Kevin Stallings said. "We didn't play great, but that's because of them. They force you to play in a way that you're not accustomed to playing."

What was Impressive

Vanderbilt Free Throw Shooting - Prior to last night's game, Vanderbilt's FT% was 65.3% on the season. That is uncharacteristic for a Vanderbilt team and certainly not representative of the capabilities of the players. Against Missouri, Vandy FT% was 83.9%, and their FTRate was 53.4% (they converted 53.4% of their field goal attempts into free throw opportunities). John Jenkins was clutch down the stretch, nailing perhaps the biggest free throws of his basketball career.
Jeffery Taylor - His plus/minus below says it all. He is emerging as our best player. He really minimized one of his weaknesses thus far, turnovers, by having only 1 against one of the best teams in the nation at forcing them. His defense is outstanding. So long as he steps on the court in a Vanderbilt uniform, he will almost always be the most athletic player on the court. As soon as he realizes that, and begins to trust in his silky-smooth jumpshot, he will be impossible to defend. Trust in yourself, Jeff! Just watch the dunk in the highlights. Trust me.
Rebounding - Considering Vandy had been out-rebounded by 4.8 rebounds per game over the first five games, it was nice to see a +21 rebounding margin. Vandy even had 15 offensive rebounds to Missouri's 17 defensive rebounds! Quite the improvement. As Andre Walker said after the game, "I think as long as you make a conscientious effort all the time to hit somebody, you can get rebounds."
Mike Anderson - This was my first occasion to observe Missouri's head coach from the stands. I must say that I came away quite impressed with him. Missouri made an outstanding hire and I hope they do everything they can to hang on to him. Coach Anderson never seemed anything but confident and cool. Clearly this filters down to his players. I was very impressed.

Areas of Concern

Turnovers - 24 of them to be precise. The season average was 15.6 (still too high). Jermaine Beal had 4 and Brad Tinsley had 6. Not good. Sure, Missouri forces more turnovers per game than most teams, but the players can't exactly say the coaches didn't address this leading up to the game.
Half-Court Offense - The team really appears to be stagnant when forced to run their half-court offense. There doesn't seem to be very much movement away from the ball. I would very much like to see this improve over the next few games. I've got a feeling some half-court flow would do wonders for our current 3-point FG%, as the players individually are much better outside shooters than 34%.

Plus/Minus through the Missouri game:

Post your game reaction below.

Know Your (Temporary) Rival: Vanderbilt Commodores

Bill C. — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:00:15 -0000

By most accounts, Vanderbilt is probably a better overall team than anybody Mizzou has faced this season, including Richmond. Does that mean a loss is in store for the Tigers, or do they match up pretty well with the Commodores? Let's find out.

Vanderbilt: 4-1

	VU	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.89	1.62
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.06	0.91
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.30	1.03
2-PT FG%	51.8%	39.8%
3-PT FG%	34.8%	33.7%
FT%	65.3%	61.6%
True Shooting %	55.3%	45.8%

	VU	Opp
Assists/Gm	11.2	11.0
Steals/Gm	7.4	6.6
Turnovers/Gm	15.6	16.8
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.19	1.05

	VU	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	62	75
Offensive Rebounds	58	86
Difference	-4	+1

VU's season thus far:

@Vandy 95, Lipscomb 73
Vandy 72, @St. Mary's 70
Cincinnati 67, Vandy 58 (in Maui)
Vandy 68, Chaminade 41 (in Maui)
Vandy 84, Arizona 72 (in Maui)

Where the Commodores are solid

They are efficient shooters--none of their overall percentages are that great, but anything at 1.30 points per shot or better is solid, and that probably means they get to the line quite a bit. Playing on the road, against a team good at drawing fouls (even if they're not great FT shooters), usually isn't a good combination for Mizzou.

They also play good defense, especially around the basket. Holding opponents to under 40% on 2-point shots is a difficult accomplishment, but the 'Dores have pulled it off so far this season (I'm sure the game against Chaminade didn't hurt their percentages, but still). That also doesn't bode well for Mizzou, considering how poorly they shot 2-pointers (and 3-pointers) in South Padre.

Where the Commodores are less than solid

Vandy plays at a faster-than-average pace, which gives them a few more opportunities for turnovers, but 15.6 is still too many. Mizzou thrives on the BCI concept, and Vandy is only average at best at that game. Since the Commodores are prone to moving relatively quickly, Mizzou might have a shot in this game by speeding them up faster than they're comfortable going, forcing turnovers, and creating easy scoring opportunities. This probably isn't a game Mizzou can win in the halfcourt.

For a team with decent size (they have seven guys of 6'7 or taller in the rotation), they sure don't rebound very well. It's not a huge weakness, but they are basically -1.0 rebound per game in terms of expected rebounds. Mizzou has held its own on the boards so far, and putbacks (hello, Laurence Bowers) could be another opportunity for easy points.

In the end, this game presents some very interesting matchups -- it appears both that Vandy is capable of taking advantage of Mizzou's weaknesses, and Mizzou is capable of taking advantage of Vandy's.

Player Stats

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	*AdjGS/Gm**	GmSc/Min	Line
Jermaine Beal (6'3, 205, Sr.)	17.2	0.54	31.8 MPG, 15.4 PPG, 2.8 APG, 1.8 RPG, 1.6 SPG
Jeffery Taylor (6'7, 210, So.)	15.9	0.58	27.2 MPG, 14.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.2 SPG, 1.2 APG, 3.0 TOPG
A.J. Ogilvy (6'11, 250, Jr.)	12.2	0.53	22.8 MPG, 10.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.6 BPG, 1.2 SPG, 1.8 TOPG
Andre Walker (6'7, 220, So.)	9.0	0.38	24.0 MPG, 7.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.8 TOPG
John Jenkins (6'4, 215, Fr.)	7.3	0.36	20.4 MPG, 9.2 PPG, 2.0 RPG
Brad Tinsley (6'3, 210, So.)	3.8	0.15	25.6 MPG, 5.4 PPG, 3.4 APG, 1.4 RPG, 2.8 TOPG
Lance Goulbourne (6'8, 225, So.)	3.3	0.33	10.0 MPG, 3.6 PPG, 1.4 RPG
Darshawn McClellan (6'7, 240, Jr.)	2.5	0.20	12.4 MPG, 3.2 PPG, 2.6 RPG
Steve Tchiengang (6'9, 240, So.)	1.5	0.18	8.4 MPG, 3.0 PPG, 2.2 RPG
Festus Ezeli (6'11, 255, So.)	1.3	0.12	11.2 MPG, 2.4 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.6 BPG
Jordan Smart (6'6, 180, Fr.)	0.9	0.45	2.0 MPG
Chris Meriwether (6'0, 180, Sr.)	0.0	0.00	2.0 MPG
Aaron Noll (6'7, 220, So.)	-0.1	-0.03	2.0 MPG
Charles Hinkle (6'6, 195, So.)	-0.5	-0.13	3.8 MPG, 0.8 PPG
Joe Duffy (6'8, 225, Jr.)	-0.5	-0.24	2.0 MPG

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It redistributes a team's points based not only on points scored, but also by giving credit for assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls. It is a stat intended to determine who had the biggest overall impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Vandy's top five players are from Texas, Sweden, Australia, Illinois and Tennessee. Throw in a Nigerian (Ezeli), a Kentuckian (Noll), a Brooklynite (Goulbourne), a couple of Californians (McClellan and Hinkle), and a Cameroon...ian (Tchiengang), and you wonder what they must talk about during downtime. (Then again, this is Vandy, so they're probably talking about how hard their classes are, huh?)
For the most part, this team is based around three rock solid players -- Beal, Taylor, Ogilvy -- and a deep cast of role players. They've got a couple of shot blockers (Ogilvy, Ezeli), a couple of fearless long-distance shooters (Beal, Jenkins...notice I didn't necessarily say "great" long-distance shooters), a couple of well-rounded scorers (Beal, Taylor), a good passer (Tinsley), and in the end, everything you need to have to be successful.
Ogilvy in particular presents Mizzou with another interesting test. Thus far, they have fared pretty well against bigger players, but Ogilvy is a particularly rugged player who puts numbers in the box score despite the lack of what you would consider a true big man's numbers (he shoots under 50% from the field, grabs an only decent 0.25 rebounds per minute, has only five offensive rebounds in five games, etc.). Taylor is the more active (and better) big man, and he is more to the size of Keith Ramsey, Bowers, etc., but Ogilvy is a unique matchup.

Keys to the Game

Fouls. As is often the case when Mizzou is playing on the road, how the game is called will go a long way in determining how good a chance Mizzou has. They probably can't beat Vandy playing a halfcourt game right now, so they'll need easy buckets ... which means they need to trap and bump and get in the passing lanes, and if the refs allow for physical play, they'll have a very good shot to win. If they're calling ticky-tack fouls, Mizzou will lose by 15-20 (with Vandy probably pulling away late with free throws).
Pace. Unlike Richmond or Old Dominion, the Commodores probably will not try to take the air out of the ball, take 9.5 seconds to get across halfcourt every trip, etc. They are content to play relatively fast, and that could be a good thing for Mizzou. If they are not consciously trying to slow things down, Mizzou might be able to bait them into picking up the pace faster and faster. If this game is 70 possessions or lower, Vandy probably wins; but if Mizzou can up that to the 73-80 range, they will have a very good chance of escaping Nashville at 5-1.
Rebounds. For their size, Vandy is not a great rebounding team; if Mizzou wins the battle of the boards and gets more second chances than the Commodores, they will give themselves a much better shot at the upset, especially considering how poorly they shot first-chance shots last week.

Prediction

There is a clear path to victory for Mizzou here, and it rests on their ability to push the tempo, avoid fouls and grab rebounds. Still, it wouldn't be tremendously smart to put a lot of money on Mizzou right now. Even though I'm not too worried about this team long-term (yet), this isn't a game Mizzou should be expected to win. Vanderbilt 71, Missouri 66.

BtB 2009-10 Southeastern Conference Preview

Chris Dobbertean — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 21:27:31 -0000

During the two weeks before Selection Sunday last March, I frequently heard these words (or something close) in conversation, "The SEC is going to get more than two or three bids to the Tourney. How can we not? We're the SEC." Of course, it took another surprising run through the SEC Tournament by a team nicknamed the Bulldogs to keep the Southeastern Conference from becoming (gasp) a two bid league. But Mississippi State became the league's second straight surprise auto bid winner. However, just like Georgia in 2008, the boys from Starkville also lost in the first round after getting a low seed.

But it's not like the two SEC teams who earned at-large bids did much better. Ninth seeded Tennessee fell to Oklahoma State in a tight first round contest, while eighth seeded LSU reached round two, where they were outclassed by North Carolina. Kentucky, Florida, Auburn, and South Carolina all ended up in the NIT, where none of the four managed to make it to New York. Vanderbilt won 19 games and didn't even get a postseason bid. All in all, it was a disappointing 2008-09 for a conference used to postseason success.

The good news for the SEC is that the league should be far better this year, thanks to a couple of major coaching hires (as explained in my Coaching Carousel column) and an infusion of new talent (some of whom are listed in my All-Transfer and All-Freshman team columns). But there's a lot more going on in the league than what happened in Lexington and Tuscaloosa this offseason, which I'll explain after the jump.

Let's first take a look at last season's SEC standings.

Southeastern Conference Standings

(updated 3.25.2009 at 10:42 PM EDT)

East	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
South Carolina Gamecocks	10	6	21	10
Tennessee Volunteers	10	6	21	13
Florida Gators	9	7	25	11
Kentucky Wildcats	8	8	22	14
Vanderbilt Commodores	8	8	19	12
Georgia Bulldogs	3	13	12	20

West	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
LSU Tigers	13	3	27	8
Auburn Tigers	10	6	24	12
Mississippi St. Bulldogs	9	7	23	13
Alabama Crimson Tide	7	9	18	14
Mississippi Rebels	7	9	16	15
Arkansas Razorbacks	2	14	14	16

Now, here are my picks for 2009-10, presented in reverse order. If a school's name appears in red, that's a link to its SBNation site. You can go there for more detailed analysis throughout the season.

West Division

Auburn (last NCAA: 2003) The Tigers fell to Baylor in the NIT quarterfinals last season, a disappointing end to a good season that could've ended in the NCAA Tournament with a marquee win or two. It's going to take a lot for Jeff Lebo's team to reach that level of success this season. Even with the graduation of Rasheem Barrett (9.9 ppg) and Quantez Robertson (6.0 ppg, 3.2 apg), DeWayne Reed (13.2 ppg, 3.7 apg) and Tay Waller (12.1 ppg) anchor a solid backcourt that will give the opposition fits. However, Korvotney Barber and his contributions of nearly 13 points and 10 rebounds a game will be severely missed in the frontcourt, even in Lebo's guard-oriented system. Seniors Brendan Knox and Johnnie Lett will have to step up to fill the void left by Barber's departure, and freshmen Rob Chubb and Ty Armstrong can expect to see playing time as well. Junior college transfer Kenny Gabriel should also see significant time, as he can be a true inside/outside threat for Auburn.

LSU (last NCAA: 2009) Expect the Tigers, last year's SEC regular season champs, to take a step back after the loss of three key starters. F Marcus Thornton and his 21 points per game are gone, so is C Chris Johnson, and the team's heart and soul, PG Garrett Temple. However, LSU still has Tasmin Mitchell, who averaged 16.3 points and 7.2 rebounds last season, while spending time at both small forward and power forward. Guard Bo Spencer is the other returning starter. He's a good shooter (averaging 11.4 ppg while shooting 40% from beyond the arc), but is coming off wrist surgery. Beyond those two, head coach Trent Johnson has his work cut out for him, as none of the other returnees averaged more than 2 points per contest. Expect the newcomers, like G Aaron Dotson (coming off a patellar tendon injury) and Fs Eddie Ludwig and Garrett Green (a medical redshirt last year), to see significant time during the rebuilding process.

Arkansas (last NCAA: 2008) It hasn't been the greatest of offseasons in Fayetteville, where head coach John Pelphrey will suspend at least one player after an offseason rape investigation that resulted in no charges. The possibility of suspensions will make the Razorbacks task of recovering from last season a bit more difficult. The Hogs were in full rebuilding mode last year, but managed to get off to a 12-1 start, featuring wins over regional rivals Oklahoma and Texas. It didn't last, and Arkansas finished bottom of the SEC West with a ghastly 2-14 record. This season, the Razorbacks will again roll out a three-guard lineup in their search for more consistency. That quest starts at point guard, where sophomore Courtney Fortson did a great job of distributing the ball (nearly 6 assists per game), while turning it over far too often (4.4 per game). Rotnei Clark led the nation's freshmen in three point shooting (39.3%), and Stefan Welsh contributed 11.5 oints per game. PF Michael Washington decided to stay in school, which means the Hogs keep their leading scorer (15.5) and conference-leading rebounder (9.8). The biggest reason Arkansas is this low is depth, with only six returning players from last season, Pelphrey will need a lot out of his newcomers to move up the SEC ladder.

Alabama (last NCAA: 2006) Bama alum Mark Gottfried resigned as head coach last January, when it was clear that the Tide would spend a third straight year outside of the NCAAs. Anthony Grant left a good gig at VCU to take the head job, and he's going to try to implement a more up-tempo style in Tuscaloosa. Alabama's biggest issue over the past few seasons has been inconsistent point guard play, especially with Ronald Steele's injuries and eventual departure from the program. Senior Mikhail Torrance (10 ppg, 2.3 apg) moved to the 1 slot after Steele left the program and performed well, though he's more of a natural shooting guard. As Grant implements his offense, watch for 5-9 Anthony Brock and Andrew Steele, Ronald's brother, to get time at the point, so Torrance can move over to his natural position. In the frontcourt, Grant has two 6-9 guys who will need to step it up. JaMychal Green had a decent freshman season, but will need to better his averages of 10.6 ppg and 7.6 rpg. Justin Knox, who averaged 5.7 ppg and 5.1 rpg, should be able to increase both those numbers with more time on the court.

Mississippi (last NCAA: 2002) Ole Miss head coach Andy Kennedy made headlines for all the wrong reasons last season, when he was arrested for allegedly assaulting a cab driver the night before the Rebels faced his former employer, Cincinnati, in the SEC/Big East Invitational. Things only got worse from there, as Miss lost All-SEC guard Chris Warren to a knee injury during that outing. Add in the fact that the Rebels had already lost Eniel Polynice and Trevor Gaskins to injuries, and it's amazing that they managed 16 wins last year. This season, all three guards are back, making the loss of Florida transfer David Huertas almost inconsequential. Zach Graham, the team's best three point shooter, is also back, giving the Rebels perhaps the best backcourt in the league. Kennedy's frontcourt isn't quite as strong. Sophomore Murphy Holloway will have to improve on his 8.4 points and 6.6 boards per game, while 6-8 freshman Reginald Bucker and 6-9 JC transfer DeAngelo Riley will have to contribute immediately. The fact the Rebels don't quite have the inside force to match Miss State's Varnado means they should finish behind their in-state rivals in the standings.

Mississippi State (last NCAA: 2009) Rick Stansbury recruited Renardo Sidney to provide some support for C Jarvis Varnado inside. However, it doesn't look like the NCAA is going to rule Sidney eligible. Stansbury also got a commitment from 7-2 Sudanese C John Riek, who was finally ruled eligible, but will have to sit out the first 9 games of the season. That means Varnado, who fell ill at one point this summer, will likely see some time as the lone big man on the court if Stansbury runs out a four-guard offense, as he did frequently last season. When you have guards like Dee Bost, Ravern Johnson, Barry Stewart, and Phil Turner who can shoot the three well, that offensive strategy isn't a bad idea. However, with the development of 6-8 Fs Kodi Augustus and Romero Osby (and Riek's eventual eligibility), you can expect to see Varnado get far more frontcourt help. Additionally, Varnado only needs 19 blocks to pass Shaquille O'Neal as the SEC's all-time leader in that category (though Shaq did it in fewer games).

East Division

Georgia (last NCAA: 2008) For some reason, Mark Fox decided to leave a Nevada program he (along with LSU head man Trent Johnson) made into a national name. Fox now replaces Dennis Felton at the helm of a Georgia program that has never fully recovered from the Jim Harrick era, which is now six years in the past. After the graduation of G/F Terrance Woodbury (14.0 ppg), Fox is left with only one double-digit scorer from last season. However, 6-9 F Howard Thompkins is a pretty good player to have on your roster. Thompkins averaged 12.6 points and 7.4 boards per game, and should be even better after an offseason spent on the USA's Under-19 World Championship-winning team. In the backcourt, Dustin Ware should start at point guard, as he averaged 7.2 points and 3.4 dimes per game in 2008-09. After that, Fox has a lot of decisions to make, and that means the Bulldogs will probably be rooted to the bottom of the SEC standings yet again.

South Carolina (last NCAA: 2004) In Darrin Horn's first year at the helm, the Gamecocks managed to tie Tennessee atop the SEC East. Even though they only lost guard Zam Fredrick and his 15.5 points per game, Carolina probably won't reach such heights this season. That's not to say that the Gamecocks won't manage to get back to the NCAAs, something they failed to do last year. Thanks to the return of G Devan Downey (19.8 ppg, 4.5 apg, SEC leading 89 steals) and F Dominique Archie (10.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg), the Gamecocks still have some real star power in the lineup. Returning starters Mike Holmes (10.8 ppg, 7.7 rpg) and Sam Muldrow (5.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg) should provide even more help to Archie in the frontcourt this season, while JC transfer Johndre Jefferson will be expected to spend time at both small and power forward. In the backcourt, Evaldas Baniulis, after averaging a bit more than 6 points a game while shooting 48 percent from behind the arc, is expected to take a more active role in the offense with the graduation of Fredrick, as is 6-5 swingman Lakeem Jackson, a heralded recruit from Charlotte.

Florida (last NCAA: 2007) Has it really been over two years since the Gators last featured in an NCAA Tournament game? While the days of back-to-back championships may be in the rear-view mirror, Billy Donovan's latest group has the chance to finally get off the bubble. Georgetown transfer Vernon Macklin will be eligible this season, and he'll slide into the center position. That will allow Alex Tyus to move back to his natural position, power forward, which will allow Dan Werner to move to small forward. Kenny Kadji should be better in his sophomore year as well, giving the Gators more of a presence inside. More consistency is expected out of swingman Chandler Parsons, whose performances alternate between brilliant and frustrating. In the backcourt, Erving Walker (10.1 ppg, 2.4 apg) will lead the offense after Nick Calathes' departure for Greece. Israeli newcomer Nimrod Tishman could also see time at the point if the NCAA rules him eligible. Impact freshman Kenny Boynton will start at shooting guard. He's expected to be the Gators new three-point threat, though he can also really drive to the hoop.

Vanderbilt (last NCAA: 2008) The Commodores sat at home last postseason, despite finishing the regular season with 7 wins in their last 10. Vandy shouldn't be so unlucky this season. Chemistry should be good, as head coach Kevin Stallings gave up a $100,000 raise so the team could take a scheduled trip to Australia, home country of star C A.J. Ogilvy. Ogilvy averaged 15.4 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, and those numbers should improve if he stays healthier this season. The 'Dores frontcourt boasts an international flavor beyond their Aussie star with Swede Jeffery Taylor (12.2 ppg. 6.2 rpg) a fixture at small forward, 6-9 Cameroonian PF Steve Tchiengang (3.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg) expected to spend more time in the 4 spot, and 6-11 Nigerian C Festus Ezeli (3.8 ppg. 2.6 rpg) expected to both backup and spend time on the floor with Ogilvy. 6-7 Andre Walker may also return to the starting lineup, after suffering an ACL tear early last season. The backcourt may be more US-centric, but it's still talented. Jermaine Beal (12.5 ppg, 3.2 apg) amd Brad Tinsley (11.0 ppg, 2.8 apg) will take turns running the offense, but 6-4 John Jenkins, the USA's highest scoring high school player last season, will get plenty of opportunities to showcase his inside/outside game. Even if he only manages 25 percent of his senior year average, Jenkins should provide plenty of scoring punch for the Commodores.

Tennessee (last NCAA: 2009) The Volunteers return all five starters in their quest to improve on last year's NCAA first round exit. The best news for the Vols this offseason was Tyler Smith's decision to skip the NBA Draft and return for his senior season. Bruce Pearl is glad he doesn't have to replace Smith's 17.4 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Wayne Chism (13.7 ppg, 8 rpg) will continue to be a force inside, while 6-10 C Brian Williams will need to improve his scoring (5 ppg) to match his rebounding (5.6 rpg). Bobby Maze (8.2 ppg, 3.2 apg) will run the offense, while J.P. Prince and Scotty Hopson, who were forces at both ends of the floor last year, are expected to continue their strong two-way play. Cameron Tatum (7.6 ppg) and Renaldo Woolridge, son of former NBA star Orlando, are going to be Bruce Pearl's key swingmen this season.. Woolridge, who only managed 2.6 points in a little more than 8 minutes a contest, should be improved in his sophomore season. The Vols only personnel loss is a sad story, as Nigerian F Emmanuel Negedu, as he suffered a sudden cardiac arrest last month.

Kentucky (last NCAA: 2008) During my Season Preview series, I've written a fair amount about John Calipari's arrival in Lexington and his stellar recruiting class. Patrick Patterson (17.9 ppg, 9.3 rpg) will lead a strong frontcourt that already features senior Perry Stevenson (7.8 ppg, 5.9 rpg), and will be bolstered by the arrival of the 6-11 DeMarcus Cousins and 6-10 Daniel Orton, two highly coveted recruits. And the backcourt will feature the most highly coveted recruit for this season, 6-4 point guard John Wall, who will be responsible for running Calipari's dribble drive offense. If the chemistry works, the Wildcats will quickly be on their way, and the blue half of the Commonwealth will quickly forget about the Gillispie period.

I'm picking Kentucky to win the overall SEC title, so they'll take the league's auto bid in my 2009-10 Final Preseason Bracket, which I will release on November 9. To wrap up this preview, here is my preseason All-SEC team, featuring the best returning players from last season.

Preseason All-SEC Team

Player of the Year: Tyler Smith, 6-7 F, Sr. (Tennessee)

Remainder of the Team
Devan Downey, 5-9 G, Sr. (South Carolina)
Tasmin Mitchell, 6-7 F, Sr. (LSU)
Patrick Patterson, 6-9 F, Jr. (Kentucky)
Jarvis Varnado, 6-9 F/C, Sr. (Mississippi State)

Poll

Who is your pick to win the SEC this season?

Alabama

9 votes

Arkansas

9 votes

Auburn

3 votes

Florida

14 votes

Georgia

2 votes

Kentucky

213 votes

LSU

3 votes

Ole Miss

7 votes

Mississippi State

57 votes

South Carolina

5 votes

Tennessee

68 votes

Vanderbilt

17 votes

407 votes | Poll has closed

New Demon Deacon commit: Torgrim Sommerfeldt

MRickman84 — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:00:10 -0000

It's always exciting when you hear rumors of an "international" player, but you have no information about him. As a Valparaiso fan growing up, with Homer and Scott Drew's international recruiting, I always loved those seven foot Lithuanian post players and the big 6' 5" shooting guards with a smooth three-point stroke. So, imagine how floored I was to hear today that Wake Forest has added one more to their 2009 basketball class...

After coming from nowhere to play on the World roster at the Nike Hoops Summit last year, Torgrim Sommerfeldt (6' 6" SG, Norway) used the game as a springboard to burst onto the international U-20 scene. He scored eight points in the game on 3/4 shooting (2-3 from beyond the arc).

Sommerfeldt talked with EuropeanProspects.com in 2008 about his experience at the Summit in Portland.

I truly want to succeed in basketball at a professional level. That is, and has been a dream of mine for many years. The Hoop Summit really got me out there competing against the best players at my age, and it was a lot of fun to see that I was able to compete against bigger names from countries with bigger basketball culture. Several schools have shown interest so that is very flattering.

It looks like Wake Forest was one of those schools. The Deacs have been well-documented in their search for a wing-shooter to fill out this class. After missing out on Brad Tinsley last year to Vanderbilt, the coaching staff has looked all over the country and seemed almost ready to pull the trigger on Skylar McBee, a SG out of Tennessee.

The staff must have made their decision today on Sommerfeldt. Of course there is always a risk in developing and bringing international players across the pond, but there is a laundry list of players who have been successful (Tim Duncan ring a bell?). If Torgrim can buy into the defensive philosophy and get better at finishing around the hoop and handling the ball, he will be a real threat on the wing.

Here are two articles about the Hoops Summit:

http://www.insidehoops.com/hoop-summit.shtml

http://www.nbadraft.net/node/3352

I'm really looking forward to the '09 class. Ari Stewart has really taken his game to the next level in his senior season and C.J. Harris looks like a real Demon Deacon. Now with Sommerfeldt rounding out the class providing a deep threat, Wake looks like they will be in good shape next season. I believe James Johnson is gone, but if Al-Farouq Aminu comes back and possibly Teague as well, the Deacs will be tough to beat in 2009.

Torgrim Sommerfeldt - Nike Hoop Summit (via SandvikaBBK)

Kentucky Wildcats @ Vanderbilt: Gameday Breakdown

Ken Howlett — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 11:17:07 -0000

UK @ Vanderbilt Game Overview

Kentucky

The University of Kentucky Wildcat basketball team (18-7, 7-3) enters the hated haunt of the Vanderbilt Commodores (Memorial Coliseum) Tuesday night for another ESPN televised tilt (9:00 EST). Not far from the minds of the Wildcat players, and faithful alike, is the 41-point BEATING UK took last year from a Shan Foster-led ('08 SEC Player of the Year) Commodore squad. Beating, one says? Well, when the 'Cats score 11 first half points, it's a beating.

Sandwiched around the 93-42 Vanderbilt (15-9, 4-6) victory over UK last year in Nashville are twin UK wins; 79-73 in overtime last year in Rupp, and this years 70-60 Kentucky victory in UK's SEC opener. The former of those two Wildcat wins broke a string of four straight hardwood triumphs for Vandy. But, UK looks to re-align the moon and stars with a victory tonight, which would be make the recent series results a much more palatable three out of four victories for UK.

Unfortunately, Kentucky's January 10 win in Rupp over the 'Dores was a bit sullied by the absence of Vandy center A.J. Ogilvy. The big Australian is back in the Vandy line-up, and I'm sure will be looking to make a difference after missing the first contest. One player he won't "be making a difference" against is Patrick Patterson. It looks as if the Wildcat center will once again sit due to his injured right ankle (he's listed as a game-time decision).

So, once again Billy Gillispie will be looking to his role players to perform at maximum capacity. Saturday at Arkansas, Jodie Meeks (he's not a role player) beat the 'Cats bacon ... uh, I mean, SAVED the 'Cats bacon with 45 points, and endless energy on the defensive end. Michael Porter, Darius Miller and Ramon Harris pitched in with solid performances. More of the same is expected by the UK head coach, as well as the Kentucky faithful: Porter unafraid to shoot; Miller being aggressive with his offensive movements; Harris rebounding and defending with abandon.

Vanderbilt

Quite frankly, Vanderbilt head coach Kevin Stallings has done a fabulous job getting his team to 15-9 overall, and 4-6 in SEC play: Of the nine players that Stallings regularly plays, seven of them are freshman or sophomores. Now that's a roster fraught with youth, and inexperience. And one of the by-products of that youth is a lack of solid defensive play; Vandy allows an unusually high shooting percentage, especially from behind the three-point line. But they do play very hard, and with a raucous Memorial crowd behind them they become a much more formidable club.

Although Vandy is painfully young, Stallings has experience at the all-important point guard position with junior Jermaine Beal, which has saved this Vanderbilt season from being similar to Arkansas's loss-plagued horror show. A. J. Ogilvy, while not scoring this year at the same pace as last season, has had success against UK (see below), which makes the loss of Patterson all the more concerning.

For more in-depth Commodore player info, I give you the ...

Vanderbilt Personnel

Jermaine Beal: 6'3" 205 lb junior point guard -- Beal averages 12.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists (1.6 turnovers), and 1.3 steals per game. He shoots 44.8% from the field, and 43.4% from beyond the arc (43-99). He makes his free throws at a 79.8% clip.

In SEC play Beal is averaging 12.7 points, 3.1 assists (1.7 turnover's per game), and 3.0 rebounds per game. He's shooting 43.4% from the field, 39.6% from the 3-point line, and 68.8% from the free throw line. He's averaged 11.3 points per game in has last three games versus UK.

A. J. Ogilvy: 6'11" 250 lb sophomore center -- Ogilvy averages 14.6 points, 6.9 rebounds (1.7 offensive rebounds), 1.1 assists, and 1.5 blocks per game. He shoots 52.0% from the field, 29.4% from the three-point line (5-17), and 72.8% from the free throw line.

In his nine SEC games Ogilvy is averaging 12.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.3 blocks per game. He's shooting 48.6% from the field, 33.3% from beyond the arc (2-6), and 66.7% from the free throw line. Ogilvy's 25 points versus VCU earlier in the season represents the high point game for any Commodore this year. In last years two contests versus UK, Ogilvy averaged 18 points per game, while shooting 52.4% from the field (11-21), and grabbing an average of 7.5 rebounds.

Jeffery Taylor: 6'7" 210 lb freshman G/F -- Taylor averages 12.3 points, 6.1 rebounds (2.4 offensive rebounds), 1.6 assists, and 1.0 steal per game. He shoots 50.7% from the field, 22.2% from beyond the arc (8-36), and 66.7% from the free throw line.

In SEC play Taylor averages 12.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and .9 steal per game. He's shooting 51.2% from the field, 40.0% from the three-point line, and 66.0% from the free throw line. Taylor scored 15 points against UK back in January, on 4-11 shooting (1-2 three-pointers), grabbed 11 rebounds, and also had four steals.

Brad Tinsley: 6'3" 210 lb freshman guard -- Tinsley averages 10.5 points, 2.8 assists (1.9 turnovers), and 2.4 rebounds per game. He shoots 40.9% from the field, 38.8% from the three-point line (52-134; that's 5.6 attempts per game), and 77.3% from the free throw line.

In SEC play Tinsley averages 10.6 points, 2.9 assists (2.0 turnovers), and 2.4 rebounds per game. He shoots 39.4% from the field, 33.9% from beyond the arc (20-59; that's 5.9 attempts per game), and 75.0% from the charity stripe. Versus UK in January, Tinsley scored 11 points on 4-15 shooting, 3-10 from beyond the arc, and he also committed three turnovers.

Steve Tchiengang: 6'9" 240 lb freshman forward -- Tchiengang averages 3.8 points, 3.3 rebounds per game (1.1 offensive rebounds). He shoots 35.3% from the field, 29.4% from the three-point line (10-34), and 62.5% from the free throw line.

In SEC play Tchiengang is averaging 4.4 points, and 3.3 rebounds per game. He's shooting 39.0% from the filed, 31.8% from the three-point line (7-22), and 71.4% from the free throw line.

George Drake: 6'4" 215 lb junior guard -- On the year Drake is averaging 5.6 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game (1.2 turnovers). He's shooting 42.4% from the filed, 16.7% from behind the line (7-42), and 78.6% from the free throw line.

In SEC play Drake is averaging 7.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, and .8 assist per game (1.1 turnovers). He shoots 51.9% from the field (he's taken no threes in SEC play), and 100% from the free throw line (10-10).

Festus Ezeli: 6'11" 255 lb sophomore center -- Ezeli averages 3.9 points, and 2.6 rebounds per game. The Cameroon native shoots 57.1% from the field, and 50.0% from the free throw line.

In SEC play, he's averaging 3.1 points, and 2.3 rebounds per game. He shoots 66.7% from the floor, and 38.9% from the free throw line. Ezeli filled in for the injured Ogilvy in January; he played 24 minutes, scored 2 points and nabbed four rebounds.

Darshawn McClellan: 6'7" 240 lb sophomore forward -- McClellan averages 2.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game. He shoots 31.3% from the field, 30.0% from the three-point line (6-20), and 52.2% from the free throw line.

In SEC play he averages 1.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, and .7 assist per game. He's shooting 23.3% from the field, 9.1% from the three-point line (1-11), and 37.5% from the free throw line.

Lance Goulbourne: 6'8" 225 lb freshman G/F -- Goulbourne averages 4.9 points, and 3.8 rebounds per game (1.1 offensive rebounds). He shoots 46.2% from the field, 30.0% from the three-point line, and 80.0% from the free throw line.

In SEC play he averages 3.6 points, and 2.9 rebounds per game (1.1 offensive rebounds). He's shooting 41.0% from the field, 23.1% from beyond the arc (3-13), and he's made 1 of 2 free throw attempts.

Commodore pre-conference win of note: VCU (71-66).

Commodore pre-conference losses of note: Illinois (69-63), @ Georgia Tech (63-51), @ Illinois-Chicago (74-55).

Vanderbilt Overall Team Stats

Vanderbilt Opponents

Scoring -- 69.2 64.0

Field Goal% -- 44.9 39.4

3-point FG% -- 33.0 36.3

Free Throw% -- 70.7 68.1

Rebounds -- +4.5

Off. Rebounding% -- 33.4 29.6

Assists -- 12.8 12.1

Turnovers -- 14.9 12.8

Steals-- 5.9 7.2

Blocks -- 4.5 3.7

Vanderbilt SEC Stats

Scoring -- 66.6 71.8

FG% -- 44.1 44.8

3-point FG% -- 30.5 38.7

Free Throw% -- 65.3 69.9

Rebounds -- +2.6

Off. Rebound% -- 33.0 28.9

Assists -- 11.5 13.2

Turnovers -- 15.2 12.3

Steals -- 5.6 7.0

Blocks -- 3.9 4.5

Vanderbilt SEC wins: Georgia (50-40), @ Auburn (82-75), Alabama (79-74), Ole Miss (71-61).

Vanderbilt SEC losses: @ Kentucky (70-60), @ Mississippi St. (73-66), Tennessee (76-63), Florida (94-69), @ South Carolina (86-76), @ Tennessee (69-50).

CliffsNotes Analysis

UK will want to execute the exact same offensive game-plan that they did against Arkansas: 24 fastbreak points (many easy baskets) to only six for Arkansas, screening for Meeks, and rebounding misses (38.5 offensive rebound %). But, in order for UK to get the high percentage shots, and get Meeks some open looks, they must defend with the same energy and anticipation that they exhibited Saturday.

Vanderbilt will try to get the ball to Ogilvy. With Patterson likely out, Ogilvy suddenly finds himself free of UK's best paint defender. The Vandy big man can hurt an opponent with his around-the-basket moves, or he can step out and pop the 15-18 footer. Because of this, Kentucky will at times find itself with a big man guarding the perimeter, so the other four 'Cats must crash the boards on the shot -- The size Vandy will throw at UK in, 6'11" Ogilvy, 6'7" McClellan, 6'11" Ezeli, 6'7" Taylor, 6'9" Tchiengang, and 6'8" Goulbourne necessitates all the boys in blue being aggressive and relentless in pursuing the misses.

Beal, Taylor, and Tinsley can also hurt UK with their offense. Tinsley will take five or six three-pointers (more if he's "feelin' it"), and Taylor can hurt the 'Cats in the paint, both with his scoring and rebounding. Beal has a penchant for penetrating, so whoever Billy Gillispie assigns to the Vandy quarterback needs to make a priority of cutting off the drive (and help needs to be available).

The First Meeting

Jodie Meeks did most of the damage with 21 points, making five of 16 shots (3-9 threes).
Perry Stevenson and Ramon Harris combined for 22 points on 10-11 shooting and nine rebounds, but of course Ogilvy was wearing his finest pin-stripe.
Patterson had a sub-par outing versus Vandy, with only 11 points and one rebound (he played 27 minutes).
Four 'Cats in double-figures ... a rarity in '09.
Ramon Harris and Jodie Meeks led the 'Cats with seven rebounds apiece.
As a team, UK shot 43.6% from the field, and 31.6% from the three-point line (6-19).
Vandy shot 31.6% from the field, and 28.0% from beyond the arc (7-25).
Vandy gathered in one more rebound than UK, and had four more offensive boards than the 'Cats.
Perry Stevenson and Patrick Patterson recorded three blocks apiece.
UK committed only 12 turnovers in the contest, while Vandy had 15.
UK scored 23 points off turnovers, while Vandy scored only 15.
UK outscored Vandy 32-20 in the paint.

Local Connection

Yes, as usual Vandy has a couple of Kentucky boys on the team:

Jordan Smart, a Lexington Catholic graduate. He's a 6'6" 170 lb sophomore G/F. He was a walk-on last year, but earned a scholarship for the '08-'09 season.

Aaron Noll, a Covington Catholic alum. Noll is a 6'7" 220 lb freshman forward. He's a walk-on.

Thanks for reading, and Go 'Cats, beat the 'Dores down!

Tennessee Volunteers at Vanderbilt Commodores: the totally serious game preview

Joel — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 12:02:58 -0000

The 11-5 Tennessee Volunteers travel west to Nashville tonight to take on the 12-5 Vanderbilt Commodores and their wacky basketball court. The Vols are coming off a bi-polar shouldn't-have-been-that-close 82-79 victory over the South Carolina Gamecocks. Vandy is coming off an I-wish-we-would-have-at-least-won 66-73 loss to Mississippi State. The teams look fairly evenly matched, with Tennessee's strength being pitted against Vandy's.

Observations from the stats

Something's got to give. Tennessee's scoring offense ranks 7th and Vandy's scoring defense ranks 14th (they are 1st -- 1st! -- in field goal percentage defense). The Vols likely won't score anywhere close to its average of 83.5, but the Commodores likely won't be able to hold the Vols to 58, either. Best guess is that Tennessee will score somewhere in the low 70s. And so will Vandy. So yeah, it should be a good game.

Vanderbilt players to watch

A.J. Ogilvy. The Aussie is averaging 16.4 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. He ranks 51st in the nation if FG% and 100th in blocked shots.

Jermaine Beal. Beal averages 12.1 points and four boards per game. He shoots 45% from the field, 42% from three-point range, and 87% from the free throw line, where he ranks 23rd in the nation. He also has good ball control skills, ranking 35th in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Other Stuff

KenPom's prediction: Vanderbilt wins 74-73. According to KenPom, Tennessee has a 47% chance of winning.

Bullets!

Revenge! Last year, it was Vanderbilt who ripped the Vols' brand spanking new No. 1 ranking from them, beating them at home on that screwy court 72-69 a mere three days after the Pearlfection game put them on top of the hill.
The 'Dores have won nine straight SEC games at Memorial Gym. Did I mention that that place is wacky? The teams' benches are under the baskets, if I remember right, rather than on the sidelines. Sidelines? Oops. Footballian slip. Apologies. Well, shoot. What are those things called in basketball? They're probably still sidelines, right? I digress.
Other 'Dores to watch. In addition to the guys mentioned above, Jeffrey Taylor and Brad Tinsley also average double figures in points.
Double doody. Sophomore Jamie Graham plays on the football team, too, which usually isn't that big of a deal for Vanderbilt seeing as how their season is usually over before basketball season starts, but this year that joke is on the other foot. Wow, that metaphor didn't work at all. Moving on.
Vanderbilt has players from five different countries. Ogilvy is from Australia, Taylor is from Norkopping, Sweden (Orghee bjork eebjorg!), Steve Tchiengang (pronounced "Chain Gang?") is from Cameroon (which, as far as I knew was a Christmas cookie), and Festus Ezeli is from Nigeria (Mayberry, Nigeria, I'd guess). If Festus wasn't also from Nigeria, I would have bet that Emmanuel Negedu still spoke more languages than the entire Commodore team, but because he is, I'll just settle for this: I cannot wait to see the head official's face when Negedu and Ezeli get into a shouting match in Nigerian Pidgin. Bonus points if it's Ted Valentine.
Did I say defense? Only three teams have scored more than 70 points against Vandy this season: UIC, Mississippi State, and Kentucky, who, as you know, has Jodie Meeks.
Vanderbilt has hit a three pointer in every game since 1986-87. The only other teams to do that are UNLV and Princeton, the latter of whom I'd guess doesn't actually play against opponents, but still.
Bench 'em all! Tennessee's bench has outscored the opposition's bench 444-248 (27.8 to 15.5 ppg) this season. Which makes you wonder if just starting the bench guys would automatically put more points in the starting lineup. An added benefit would be that it would make our starters bench players, which would apparently make them score more because they would then be bench players. Yeah.

Anyway, on to the stats:

KEY STATS COMPARISON
Category	Rank	Actual	Rank	Actual
Scoring Offense	7	83.5	163	69.1
Scoring Defense	308	76.1	14	58.0
Scoring Margin	82	7.3	42	11.1
Field-Goal Percentage	109	45.0	146	44.3
Field-Goal Percentage Defense	249	44.7	1	35.9
Three-Point Field Goals Per Game	119	6.8	197	5.9
Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage	247	30.4	201	33.0
Three Pt FG Defense	287	0.369	157	0.336
Free-Throw Percentage	159	68.9	20	74.5
Rebound Margin	17	7.5	64	4.4
Assists Per Game	18	17.0	172	13.3
Assist Turnover Ratio	42	1.17	189	0.91
Blocked Shots Per Game	114	3.8	45	4.8
Steals Per Game	130	7.3	220	6.3
Turnovers Per Game	190	14.5	184	14.5
Turnover Margin	124	1.1	227	-0.9
Personal Fouls Per Game	291	20.8	45	16.3

PLAYERS TO WATCH
Category	Player	Rank	Actual	Player	Rank	Actual
Points PG	Tyler Smith	77	17.8
FG%				A.J. Ogilvy	51	54.7
3-Point FG PG
3-Point FG%
FT %				Jermaine Beal	23	88.1
Rebounds PG	Wayne Chism	38	9.1
Assists PG
Blocks PG				A.J. Ogilvy	100	1.6
Steals PG
Assist-TO Ratio	Bobby Maze	73	2.04	Jermaine Beal	35	2.41

Vanderbilt 60 @ Kentucky 70: Postmortem

Truzenzuzex — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 00:08:38 -0000

Let me start out by saying that the Vanderbilt Commodores gave a game effort today considering that arguably their best player was out with an injury. Despite falling behind by 20 midway through the second half, Vanderbilt not only made a game of it but put a real scare into most Kentucky fans by going on a 17-5 run at the end of the game to get the deficit to 6 with over two minutes left to play. In the end, it wasn't enough, but you have to admire the effort it took.

For Kentucky, this was a very uneven effort. The first part of the game was full of defensive errors that lead to Vanderbilt baskets, particularly from outside. But at about the ten minute mark in the first half, Patterson got his second foul and the bench came in and picked the team up, ultimately allowing Kentucky to go up five at the break.

The second half saw Kentucky's defense play very well for 75% of the period. In the other 25%, Vanderbilt was almost able to make a breathtaking comeback thanks to some untimely turnovers by Kentucky, missed defensive assignments and weak rebounding. In the end Kentucky held on, but it wasn't an effort that they want to point to as an example of their best basketball.

Here are my observations:

Patrick Patterson was not impressive today. Yes, Vanderbilt was very effective taking him away, but Patterson only managed 1 rebound. Yes, he was in foul trouble, but Patterson should get more than one rebound by accident. He did have 3 blocks and 11 points, so he did help.
Jodie Meeks played hard, but not particularly well offensively. So he did the next best thing and played solid defense (except for a breakdown near the end of the game) and rebounded the basketball.
Darius Miller did some good things out there, but he just couldn't buy one from the field.
I loved DeAndre Liggins' defensive effort, and hated his effort on offense in the first half. He forced three shots and made a brain-dead turnover. But defensively, he was a nightmare for Tinsley. With Liggins in the game, Tinsley did not get a single clean look, and I don't think he made but one shot in the second half. At one point, Liggins turned Vanderbilt over on two consecutive possessions and forced a jump ball on the third. Interestingly, after that aforementioned dumb turnover, he didn't have another one. He only had two assists, though.
Perry Stevenson had a good game, but he still tends to disappear at times and only managed 2 rebounds. He did have 3 big blocks.
Michael Porter was adequate, and made a clutch shot. But he seemed tentative to me and turns down way to many open shots. He did make his free throws, though, and that was critical.
Ramon Harris was terrific on the offensive end. He was less than terrific defensively, however. An unusual reversal of the norm, but he did rebound very well.
12 total turnovers, and about 4 of them happened in the last 3 minutes.
At times, Kentucky's defense was remarkable. At others it was pitiful.
Kentucky showed good patience attacking Vanderbilt's zone. I'm glad to see the 'Cats learning to do this, because they will be seeing the zone a lot this year.
Josh Harrellson needs to have more of an impact. He made one really clutch shot, but that's about all.
UK was outrebounded by a team playing mostly zone. That ought to make Gillispie apoplectic.

Overall, this was a pedestrian effort that could have been good but for a very few minutes of ineptitude. The most important thing about this game was the final result, which is a win. But we are going to need a much better performance to deal with Tennessee, Florida and Arkansas.

Vanderbilt @ Kentucky: Game Analysis

Truzenzuzex — Sat, 10 Jan 2009 16:04:32 -0000

At last we reach the first game of our conference schedule. In recent years, our games with Vanderbilt have been highly indicative of how our season was likely to turn out. Beat them in Rupp Arena, and all is well. Lose to them, and things tend to go downhill a bit.

Last year we pulled off a big upset in Rupp, and this year we are looking to bounce back from the loss at Louisville. That tends to magnify this game somewhat, and makes it a very important beginning to the SEC conference schedule. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, is on a six-game winning streak, their latest being a 30-point victimization of UMass.

Player Statistics (Courtesy of BBState)

Kentucky
#	Player	Pos	Yr	Ht	Wt	G	MPG	FG%	FT%	3PT%	True%	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	A/TO	Pts40	Eff	PPG
23	Meeks,Jodie	G	Jr.	6'4”	208	15	32.8	47.1	89.4	42.5	64.6	3.1	1.7	1.6	0.1	0.6	29.8	18.1	24.4
54	Patterson,Patrick	F	So.	6'9”	235	15	32.1	71.3	79.5	0	74.4	9.8	2.7	0.7	2	1.6	24.3	26.5	19.5
21	Stevenson,Perry	F	Jr.	6'9”	207	15	25.3	55.1	78.1	40	62	6.2	1.6	0.7	2.4	0.8	10.8	11.5	6.9
34	Liggins,DeAndre	F	Fr.	6'6”	202	15	19.8	47.2	70.6	18.5	55.8	2.8	3.7	0.9	0.5	1.1	13.1	7.3	6.5
22	Harris,Ramon	F	Jr.	6'7”	218	10	21.2	58.5	59.3	11.1	61.5	2.6	1.2	0.8	0.3	0.6	12.3	6	6.5
55	Harrellson,Josh	C	So.	6'10”	265	15	12.9	49.3	73.9	37.5	55.6	3.8	0.5	0.3	0.7	0.5	18.2	6.9	5.9
1	Miller,Darius	F	Fr.	6'7”	223	15	19.6	33.3	75	20	43.3	2.9	2.1	0.5	0.5	1.3	7.8	5.3	3.8
13	Porter,Michael	G	Jr.	6'3”	198	15	22.1	32.7	80	27.8	46.1	2.1	2.9	0.8	0.1	1.3	6.3	4.7	3.5
15	Stewart,AJ	F	Sr.	6'8”	207	12	6.9	50	90	0	57.6	1.5	0.3	0.4	0.8	0.3	16.9	3.7	2.9
10	Slone,Landon	G	Fr.	6'3”	189	9	9.2	31.6	100	30.8	48.2	1.3	1	0.3	0	4.5	9.6	3.3	2.2
3	Galloway,Kevin	F	Jr.	6'7”	215	12	7.3	46.2	50	0	48.4	1.3	1.4	0.3	0.2	1.5	7.3	2.7	1.3
Vanderbilt
#	Player	Pos	Yr	Ht	Wt	G	MPG	FG%	FT%	3PT%	True%	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	A/TO	Pts40	Eff	PPG
4	Ogilvy,Andrew	C	Sr.	6'10”	250	13	26.8	53.9	76	27.3	62.9	7.2	0.9	0.7	1.5	0.3	24.5	15.8	16.5
44	Taylor,Jeffery	F	Fr.	6'7”	210	14	25.2	50.4	67.2	15.4	56.1	6.1	1.6	1.1	0.5	0.9	19.8	12.9	12.5
0	Beal,Jermaine	G	Jr.	6'3”	205	14	31	46.2	86.5	47.1	65	4.2	3.4	1.6	0.2	2.3	15.2	14.4	11.8
1	Tinsley,Brad	G	Fr.	6'3”	210	14	29.9	42.2	78.6	42.7	60.2	2.4	2.8	0.6	0.1	1.6	14	9.1	10.4
5	Goulbourne,Lance	G	Fr.	6'8”	225	6	14.8	53.8	84.6	42.9	66.2	5.3	0	0.7	0.7	0	18.9	9	7
24	Walker,Andre	F	So.	6'7”	220	3	23.7	62.5	80	0	68.6	4.7	1.3	0.7	1.3	0.7	7.9	8.3	4.7
34	Drake,George	G	Jr.	6'4”	215	14	17.7	34.8	66.7	22.6	44	2.5	1.9	0.6	0.3	1.4	10.5	4.7	4.6
3	Ezeli,Festus	C	Fr.	6'11”	255	12	12.8	52.6	58.3	0	55.6	2.8	0.1	0.1	1.2	0	14	4.1	4.5
33	Tchiengang,Steve	F	Fr.	6'9”	240	8	17.6	29.6	55.6	25	38.8	3.4	0.6	0.3	0.4	0.5	6.8	3.1	3
21	McClellan,Darshawn	F	So.	6'7”	240	14	18.7	37.8	60	55.6	48.2	2.4	1.6	0.4	0.4	1.3	6.4	4.2	3
2	Hinkle,Charles	F	Fr.	6'6”	195	12	12.1	25.8	90.9	20.8	43.2	1.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	1	8.6	2.4	2.6
50	Duffy,Joe	F	So.	6'8”	225	12	9	41.2	75	0	45.3	1.6	0.5	0.1	0	0.9	6.3	2.2	1.4

Team Statistics (Courtesy of Kenpom.com)

Stat	Vanderbilt				Kentucky				Advantage
Stat	Offense	Rnk	Defense	Rnk	Offense	Rnk	Defense	Rnk	Offense	Defense
Adjusted efficiency	104.2	105	90.6	33	110	48	88.6	22	UK	UK
Effective FG%	51.4	87	51.2	5	56.1	12	42.8	19	UK Big	UK
Turnover %	21.9	229	18.6	287	24.7	317	20.8	177	Vandy Big	UK Big
Offensive rebound %	33.6	163	29.9	73	35.2	112	29.1	42	UK	UK
Free throw rate	34.5	9	29.4	54	32.2	23	34.2	141	Vandy	Vandy Big
3-point FG%	34.8	143	34.4	191	33.9	178	34.1	184	Vandy	UK
2-point FG%	51	65	36.2	1	58.4	4	38.8	5	UK	Vandy Small
Free throw %	73.7	37	66.5	94	78.4	7	70.2	229	UK	Vandy Big
Block %	9.2	192	12.5	42	6.9	64	18.8	5	UK Big	UK
Steal %	11	248	9.2	221	11.1	250	9.5	203	Vandy Small	UK
3PA/FGA	34.1	139	32.3	146	30.4	232	32.5	151	N/A	N/A
A/FGM	58.2	94	55.2	186	64.3	20	45.2	10	N/A	N/A

Analysis

Front Court

Vanderbilt has a very young but talented front court. Andrew Ogilvy is tenth in the SEC in scoring and eighth in rebounding. He is one of the best low-post players in the SEC and will provide a serious challenge for the Kentucky front-court duo of Patrick Patterson and Perry Stevenson. Freshman Jeffrey Taylor was a Rivals top 100 player (52) and has already claimed SEC Freshman of the Week honors once this year. Andre Walker is a sophomore who plays mostly an inside game.

Patrick Patterson currently ranks 5th and 3rd in the SEC in scoring and rebounding respectively, and as good as Ogilvy has been, Patterson as been significantly better. Perry Stevenson and Jeffrey Talor are very similar players both in build and game, except that Taylor is a better scorer and Stevenson is a better defensive player. Both Patterson and Stevenson are in the top 15 in the SEC in field goal percentage, and neither of the two Commodores are so high. I have no idea who will start at the 3 for Kentucky, but it will probably be Ramon Harris.

Overall, I give Kentucky an edge in the front court. Patterson is a better offensive and devensive player than Ogilvy, and is much more athletic. Stevenson and Harris are both far more eperienced than their counterparts, and just as talented.

Back Court

Vanderbilt has two deadly 3-point shooters in the back court, point guard Jermaine Beal and freshman (and former UK recruit) Brad Tinsley. Both are shooting over 40% from outside the arc, and Beal is a junior with outstanding ball skills.

Jodie Meeks currently leads the SEC in scoring and is fourth in the nation. He is second in the league in minutes and sixth in true shooting percentage. He will likely be joined by Michael Porter, who played a good game against Louisville and has matured quite a bit in the last several games.

Vanderbilt has a slight advantage in the back court. They have better depth and a more stable point guard situation. They also have excellent shooting in the back court.

Conclusion

Overall, Kentucky is statistically a somewhat better team than Vanderbilt, although Vandy continues to field solid, high quality talent. Vanderbilt's biggest problem in this game will be containing the Patterson/Meeks duo. Unfortunately for Vanderbilt, they don't have anyone with the combination of size and athleticism to handle Patterson. Meeks' athleticism is trouble for everyone, but if his shot happens to be off this game, UK will need someone else to step up and produce.

Both teams get to the line a lot and shoot a high percentage. Neither team gets a lot of steals, and of course, there is that whole turnover thing with Kentucky, which has been a serious bugaboo for the 'Cats all year. Kentucky plays somewhat better defense and somewhat better offense than the Commodores, and if that holds to form, the 'Cats should be in the driver's seat.

One big concern for both teams is fouls. If either team's big man gets into foul trouble, that could be a very big problem. Kentucky has struggled this year with 3-point defense, and that could be deadly against Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt has three very capable three-point shooters, and Kentucky really only has one -- Michael Porter has shown some competence, but he is a reluctant shooter.

In the final analysis, these are two very similar teams, statistically, and this matchup should be a good one. Kentucky is more efficient on both offense and defense, and although Vanderbilt has better three point shooting, Kentucky has an advantage both athletically and size wise in the back court that should neutralize that to some degree. Rupp Arena will also provide an advantage that was strong during SEC play last year, and I don't expect that to change this year.