SB Nation - Bubba Chisholm

Know Your Braggin' Rights Rival: Illinois

Bill C. — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 16:00:29 -0000

by STEPHEN HAAS - AP

Mike Davis is Illinois' best all-around player. (AP Photo/Stephen Haas)

There must be something wrong with me. I know Mizzou can win this game, and I know a win tomorrow night would give this season a significant bump in the right direction. But when I think of the Illinois game, two major thoughts come to mind:

We're probably going to lose. It's what we do in this game. (And as long as we keep winning the football game, I see this as a fair trade.)
As long as we show improvement, moving the ball relatively well on offense and showing that we've improved on the boards, I'm more or less okay with that.

Here's the problem: every time I've ever decided I've come to grips with a loss beforehand, we end up losing in the most annoying, grating way possible. AJ blocks a shot right to Brian Boddicker for an open 3 against Texas in 2004. Kansas makes two ridiculously stupid 25-foot 3-pointers to win at Hearnes in 2003. Keon Lawrence slips and dribbles the ball off his foot against Illinois in 2007. Et cetera. So now that I've officially accepted that we're probably going to lose this game ... I'm fired up about not losing this game.

Illinois 8-3

	UI	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.97	1.63
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.15	0.95
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.29	1.11
2-PT FG%	52.8%	47.1%
3-PT FG%	38.6%	27.9%
FT%	73.0%	70.8%
True Shooting %	57.3%	49.2%

	UI	Opp
Assists/Gm	17.5	11.5
Steals/Gm	6.1	6.1
Turnovers/Gm	11.7	14.3
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	2.01	1.24

	UI	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	131	144
Offensive Rebounds	125	123
Difference	-6	-21

Ken Pomeroy Stats

UI Offense vs MU Defense Ranks
	UI Offense	MU Defense	Advantage
Efficiency	38	13	MU
Effective FG%	34	11	MU
Turnover %	22	2	MU
Off. Reb. %	122	268	Illini Big
FTA/FGA	321	185	MU Big
MU Offense vs UI Defense Ranks
	MU Offense	UI Defense	Advantage
Efficiency	58	101	MU
Effective FG%	48	73	MU
Turnover %	73	198	MU Big
Off. Reb. %	86	50	Illini
FTA/FGA	313	59	Illini Big

Where the Illini are best

In all, Illinois is a pretty damn efficient offensive team. They shoot well (57.3% true shooting), they don't turn the ball over much (outside of Demetri McCamey), their BCI hovers right at a lovely 2.0, and they are perfectly acceptable in the offensive rebounding category; they're only okay in the rebounds department considering their overall size (six guys 6'9 or taller), but they're still better than Mizzou by all means.

Where the Illini are weakest

First of all, they don't get to the line any better than Mizzou does -- this game could be decided by long jumpers and offensive rebound opportunities. Plus, while they're strong in terms of FG% defense, they don't force too many turnovers.

UI's Season to Date

@Illinois 96, SIU-Edwardsville 69 (W)
@Illinois 80, Northern Illinois 61 (W)
Las Vegas Invitational
@Illinois 94, Presbyterian 48 (W)
@Illinois 78, Wofford 64 (W)
Utah 60, Illinois 58 (in Las Vegas) (L)
Bradley 72, Illinois 68 (in Las Vegas) (L)
Illinois 76, @Clemson 74 (W)
@Illinois 84, Boise State 77 (W)
@Illinois 79, Vanderbilt 68 (W)
@Illinois 88, Western Michigan 53 (W)
@Georgia 70, Illinois 67 (L)

Looking at both Mizzou's and Illinois' results this year, one thing most certainly stands out: these are two young teams. Illinois pulls off an astounding comeback to win in Clemson ... right after losing to an iffy Bradley team and a downright bad Utah team. They pull away from Vanderbilt in a big win ... then lose to Georgia. They have been outstanding (5-0) at home this season, but away from Assembly Hall, things get relatively dicey (3-3). Sounds familiar, right? Mizzou's average win at home this season is by a margin of roughly eleventy-billion-point-one. Away from Mizzou Arena, they're capable of losing to Oral Roberts. This makes this game extremely tough to predict.

Illinois Player Stats

College Basketball

Player	*AdjGS/Gm**	GmSc/Min	Line
Mike Davis (6'9, 220, Jr.)	14.1	0.46	30.5 MPG, 12.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 1.2 APG
Demetri McCamey (6'3, 200, Jr.)	13.1	0.47	27.6 MPG, 14.2 PPG, 5.5 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 3.7 TOPG
Mike Tisdale (7'1, 235, Jr.)	11.8	0.50	23.4 MPG, 10.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.1 BPG
D.J. Richardson (6'2, 185, Fr.)	9.9	0.34	29.4 MPG, 10.8 PPG, 3.0 APG, 2.3 RPG
Brandon Paul (6'4, 195, Fr.)	8.3	0.37	22.3 MPG, 10.4 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.7 TOPG
Dominique Keller (6'7, 230, Sr.)	6.7	0.45	15.1 MPG, 7.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG
Bill Cole (6'9, 215, Jr.)	4.1	0.27	15.2 MPG, 3.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG
Tyler Griffey (6'9, 225, Fr.)	3.9	0.48	8.1 MPG, 3.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG
Jeff Jordan (6'1, 185, Jr.)	3.0	0.17	17.6 MPG, 2.3 PPG, 2.4 APG, 2.2 RPG
Richard Semrau (6'10, 245, Jr.)	2.8	0.44	6.2 MPG, 2.1 PPG, 2.0 RPG
Alex Legion (6'5, 200, Jr.)	1.5	0.15	10.4 MPG, 3.0 PPG
Stan Simpson (6'10, 230, Fr.)	0.6	0.19	12 minutes
Bubba Chisholm (5'11, 180, Sr.)	0.5	0.38	8 minutes

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It redistributes a team's points based not only on points scored, but also by giving credit for assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls. It is a stat intended to determine who had the biggest overall impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Stats from the last two Mizzou-Illinois games:
Demetri McCamey: 28.0 MPG, 12.0 PPG (9-for-14 FG, 4-for-7 3PT), 3.0 APG, 3.0 TOPG
Mike Davis: 25.0 MPG, 9.5 PPG (8-for-13 FG), 5.0 RPG
Mike Tisdale: 13.0 MPG, 6.5 PPG (6-for-11 FG), 4.0 RPG

McCamey murdered Mizzou last year, with 18 first-half points (including, if I remember correctly, at least one bank-shot 3...always a tell-tale sign that you're about to get massacred), so he's clearly the player Mizzou fans fear the most. Knowing Mizzou's current strengths and weaknesses, however, Davis and Tisdale are almost as worrisome.
In all, Mizzou's best opportunity might come from the fact that two of UI's primary ball-handlers are freshmen. That lack of experience is offset a bit by McCamey and the fact that he has had a primary role in two Braggin' Rights games now, but he's a bit of a turnover machine himself. Even though Illinois has put together some solid turnover numbers, if Mizzou can avoid getting shot out of the building like they were last year, they might eventually be able to wear down the Illini backcourt. But that whole "avoid getting your doors blown off early" thing is a bit up in the air.
If Mizzou does derive a bit of an advantage in the backcourt, it is offset by Illinois' extreme depth advantage up front. I like that Davis is only 220 pounds, roughly the same as Laurence Bowers and Keith Ramsey, but Tisdale is a bit of a load, and they have a wealth of other tall guys -- Dominique Keller, Bill Cole, former Mizzou recruit Tyler Griffey, Richard Semrau -- to throw at Mizzou.

And just in case any Illinois fans end up reading this, here are Mizzou's own player stats as well.

Mizzou Player Stats

NCAA Basketball

Player	*AdjGS/Gm**	GmSc/Min	Line
Laurence Bowers (6'8, 205, So.)	13.3	0.67	19.8 MPG, 10.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.7 BPG, 1.5 APG, 1.3 SPG
Kim English (6'6, 200, So.)	12.4	0.56	22.1 MPG, 16.1 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.0 SPG, 1.4 APG, 2.1 TOPG
Zaire Taylor (6'4, 189, Sr.)	11.1	0.40	27.8 MPG, 9.0 PPG, 3.1 APG, 3.1 RPG, 2.8 SPG
Marcus Denmon (6'3, 185, So.)	9.2	0.46	20.1 MPG, 10.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.2 SPG
Keith Ramsey (6'9, 210, Sr.)	9.2	0.36	25.4 MPG, 5.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.1 SPG, 1.7 APG, 1.3 BPG, 1.7 TOPG
J.T. Tiller (6'3, 200, Sr.)	7.0	0.30	23.3 MPG, 9.6 PPG, 2.9 APG, 2.3 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 2.4 TOPG
Mike Dixon (6'1, 175, Fr.)	6.9	0.38	18.1 MPG, 8.2 PPG, 2.8 APG, 1.6 RPG
Justin Safford (6'8, 230, Jr.)	6.2	0.34	18.4 MPG, 7.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.5 TOPG
Miguel Paul (6'1, 172, So.)	4.4	0.31	14.0 MPG, 4.2 PPG, 2.6 APG
John Underwood (6'9, 208, Fr.)	1.9	0.30	6.3 MPG, 1.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG
Tyler Stone (6'7, 225, Fr.)	1.5	0.34	4.3 MPG, 1.7 PPG, 1.2 RPG
Steve Moore (6'9, 264, So.)	1.3	0.12	11.0 MPG, 1.6 PPG, 1.4 RPG
Jarrett Sutton (6'3, 190, Jr.)	0.6	0.16	4.0 MPG, 1.8 PPG

In some ways, Bowers and Mike Davis are similar players -- not prominent shooters (they score, but they don't take a boatload of shots), solid rebounders (Davis is better), solid passers (Bowers is better). Bowers is the ultimate box score filler, and as we'll see soon enough, the more prominent he is, the better Mizzou gets.
It really is neat watching this defense in action -- no single player dominates in the steals department, but just about everybody snags at least one a game.

Keys to the Game

Pace. The main difference between last season's Mizzou squad and this season's (thus far) is the ability to force their will on their opponent. In almost every game last year, Mizzou was able to force opponents into playing much faster than they wanted, and while we've seen the same type of spurts this season, the spurts don't last nearly as long. While Mizzou prefers a pace well over 70 possessions a game, Old Dominion was able to keep things at a 65-possession pace. Richmond? 60. Oral Roberts? 61. Unacceptable.

Illinois plays at a reasonably fast clip, averaging about 68 possessions per game. With two freshmen and a turnover-heavy star, Illinois might be vulnerable to a faster pace if Mizzou can force them into it. If not, Mizzou's best opportunity for winning goes by the wayside.
Laurence Bowers. He is the key to Mizzou's offensive flow. Ball movement has been alright this year, but with only one person consistently trying to generate shots (Kim English), there hasn't been a lot of purpose to the ball movement. Guys like Bowers and Zaire Taylor will shoot it if they're wide open, but they're not looking to score or create. That has to change if Mizzou has any chance. Taylor has an excuse (he's the point guard, not the shooting guard), but it's time for Bowers to show what his ceiling is. He's done well in the last two cupcake games, taking plenty of shots, but most of them are still in the "putbacks and wide open looks" vein. Let's find out if that's all he is, or if there's a natural, 15 PPG scorer beneath the surface. He's a skinny guy, but he's a good FT shooter, and I want to see him taking a few more not-completely-open shots and driving. Maybe he can do it, and maybe he can't, but I want to find out.
Justin Safford. Can't say it enough: against a reasonably decent rebounding team Saturday night (UAPB), Safford was more aggressive on the boards than I've ever seen him. It was a breath of fresh air, and even if he picks up a couple over-aggressive fouls, I want to see the same level of intensity against Illinois. He is, by default, the biggest player in Mizzou's rotation, the only main contributor over 220 pounds (barely), and if he turns into a solid 6-7 RPG guy (he's averaged only 2.8 RPG against the "real" opponents on Mizzou's schedule so far), Mizzou's overall rebounding trouble just took a step in the right direction.

Prediction

Never bet against a streak, right? This isn't a great Illinois team -- like Mizzou, they are pretty young and vulnerable to falling asleep for minutes at a time. They have a high upside and pretty low downside, and if Mizzou brings the attack to them early, they could run away with this game. But that hasn't happened since 1999. It feels like odds are still in favor of the "McCamey gets hot early, Mizzou has some shots rim in and out and goes into a shell, and they're playing from behind all night" scenario. So I'm chickening out and going with Illinois 75, Mizzou 67. Mizzou absolutely can win this game, but they need to prove it.

Illini roll SIUE 96 to 69, Brandon Paul and Mike Davis dominate

Joe Kutsunis — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 03:25:56 -0000

More photos » by Robert K. O'Daniell - AP

about 1 month ago: Illinois' Brandon Paul (3) cruises by Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Mark Yelovich (33) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game at the Assembly Hall in Champaign, Ill., on Friday, Nov. 13, 2009. (AP Photo/Robert K. O'Daniell)

Browse more photos »

While the stat sheet may point to the fantastic scoring torrent that Brandon Paul unleashed against the Cougars, the credit must also go to the Illini big men, who put their height and talent advantage to good use on both ends of the court. Mike Davis especially showed just how good he really is becoming. If he can play like he did tonight from now on, I certainly don't care how little effort he puts into the exhibition games. He and Tisdale, even Semrau Cole and Dominique were eating up the inside of the SIUE defense tonight. A huge shift in gears from the last exhibition game. A word of warning to all other Big Ten teams, this will not be the slow methodical Illini team of yesteryear. This team looks like it can score on anybody. More thoughts after the jump

When Demetri was in the game, he was in complete control of the offense, the passes were crisp and alot of really good shots were created. Not to mention how consistently DMac was able to get the ball into the big guys, something a lot of us fans were concerned about after Sunday. He is looking more and more like the all around player the Illini need in a post Chester world.
Along those same lines, with Jeff sitting out, the PG duties were turned over to DJ when DMAC needed a rest. The Illini offense seem to become a bit more one dimensional then, but overall if Jeff can come back in a week and run the O it shouldn't be a problem.
Yeah and Brandon Paul looked about as good as I have ever seen a freshman play. Seriously he can shoot the ball, with 22 points he is now the record holder for an illini freshman in a home debut
I am having trouble remembering the last time I saw an Illini team score 96 points. The freshmen can score and made this team look like a well oiled machine when it comes to scoring. This team is going to score this year, and I am really excited to see what they can do.
Also Bubba Chisholm has a icy fade away. Play him some more Bruce.

As for the overall take away from this game, I have this to offer you. This game was just plain fun to watch, even when the team hit a skid midway through the second half it was fun to watch. This team is playing well and gelling even faster than I thought possible. Demetri has locked down the PG position, the freshmen are great right out of the gate and Mike Davis looks like he is going to take another step toward the NBA this year. I am so excited about this season I can hardly wait for the really good teams to get here, Clemson Vandy and all the BIg Ten teams, its going to be really fun to watch the Illini beat them.

Mizzou-Illinois: A wonk's preview

Bill C. — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 16:30:06 -0000

Quick programming note: I was supposed to be driving to Oklahoma tonight (and therefore listening to the dulcet tones of Mike Kelly filling me in on the action), but we are now not leaving until tomorrow morning. Which means I get to watch the game tonight after all. Which means...LIVEBLOG!!!

Anyway...

Since it's the biggest game of the season thus far, I figured I could throw together my fun, wonky numbers for a preview...

	Illinois	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Points Per Minute	1.78	1.38	2.16	1.61
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.10	0.85	1.18	0.88
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.26	1.03	1.31	1.14
2-PT FG%	52.2%	43.9%	53.5%	42.3%
3-PT FG%	39.1%	28.7%	36.4%	30.0%
FT%	71.5%	56.2%	63.1%	63.6%

	Illinois	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Assists/Gm	19.7	11.4	20.4	10.5
Steals/Gm	6.5	5.7	11.3	6.9
Turnovers/Gm	13.6	16.7	12.1	19.6
(Assists + Steals) / TO	1.92	0.96	2.62	0.89

	Illinois	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Exp. Offensive Rebounds	122	141	136	138
Offensive Rebounds	123	141	153	141
Eq. Rebound Margin	+1	0	+17	+3

You probably didn't need these numbers to tell you that Mizzou is the more up-tempo, offensive team, while Illinois is the slug-it-out, defensive team. If Mizzou has an advantage here, it's because their margins are better. They are +1.73 on the (Ast+Stl)/TO ratio, while UI is +0.96. They are +0.30 on Points Per Possession, while UI is +0.25.
Illinois' rebounding is not quite what I thought it would be. Again, the Expected Offensive Rebounds figure is based on the fact that there are different offensive rebound %'s for 2-pointers, 3-pointers and FT's...plus, both UI's and MU's opponents have missed more shots than they have, so they expected number is higher. From the Expected Rebounds standpoint, Illinois is...only average. They have both grabbed and given up pretty much the exact number of expected offensive rebounds.
Missouri, on the other hand, has been slightly below average in defensive rebounds...but great in offensive rebounds. Strangely, Mizzou might actually have the rebounding edge here.
Projected score based on Points Per Minute: Mizzou 71, Illinois 68
Projected score based on Points Per Possession (and average possessions per game): Mizzou 70, Illinois 69

Missouri Season to Date

Player	EqPts/Gm	EqPts/Min	Line
DeMarre Carroll	17.83	0.69	17.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.8 SPG
Leo Lyons	14.50	0.62	16.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.5 SPG
Marcus Denmon	7.96	0.46	7.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.4 SPG
Zaire Taylor	7.44	0.30	4.2 PPG, 3.5 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.4 SPG
J.T. Tiller	7.21	0.34	6.4 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.8 RPG, 2.2 SPG
Matt Lawrence	7.17	0.38	9.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 0.8 APG
Miguel Paul	4.99	0.31	4.8 PPG, 2.4 APG, 1.2 RPG
Keith Ramsey	4.39	0.36	4.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.7 BPG
Kim English	4.00	0.32	6.9 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.0 APG
Laurence Bowers	3.78	0.41	3.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.7 BPG
Justin Safford	3.77	0.30	4.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.5 APG
Jarrett Sutton	2.04	0.58	3.0 PPG
Steve Moore	1.45	0.26	1.8 PPG, 2.0 RPG
Michael Anderson Jr.	1.10	0.16	1.5 PPG, 1.0 RPG

Illinois Season to Date

Player	EqPts/Gm	EqPts/Min	Line
Chester Frazier	13.40	0.44	7.2 PPG, 6.6 APG, 3.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG
Mike Davis	12.34	0.43	13.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.6 APG, 0.8 SPG
Demetri McCamey	11.16	0.37	12.4 PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.3 RPG
Trent Meachem	8.09	0.27	10.9 PPG, 2.5 APG, 1.9 RPG
Mike Tisdale	5.56	0.25	10.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.1 BPG
Dominique Keller	5.12	0.46	6.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG
Calvin Brock	3.44	0.20	5.2 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.3 APG
Jeff Jordan	2.19	0.20	1.4 PPG, 1.5 APG
Richard Semrau	1.21	0.09	2.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG
Bubba Chisholm	0.92	0.55	0.7 PPG, 1 Walk-on, 1 great name
Bill Cole	0.79	0.13	1.9 PPG, 1.3 RPG
C.J. Jackson	0.25	0.11	1.2 PPG, 0.7 RPG
Alex Legion	-0.54	-0.03	6 pts, 2 reb, 3 TO, 2 PF in 18 minutes

Two things to note immediately: 1) Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll are the two (statistically) best players on the court, and 2) While UI has four guys averaging in double-digits, it's Chester Frazier (7.2 PPG) who makes this team tick.
Foul trouble could come into play here. UI's Mike Tisdale averages 0.13 fouls per minute, as does Richard Semrau, while MU's Leo Lyons (0.10) and DeMarre Carrolle (0.08) have both improved in their body control from last year...but they still have lots of foul potential. And in the backcourt, JT Tiller is averaging 0.13 fouls per minute (0.16 against 'real teams'--USC, Cal, Xavier), and none of UI's major guards average higher than 0.08.
Another potential issue: depth. Illinois has three guys averaging 30 minutes per game and has another at 28.7. Meanwhile, Missouri only has four guys averaging as much as 20 minutes per game, with another six averaging 12 minutes or more. Plus, Laurence Bowers is starting to work his way into the rotation, meaning Mizzou has 11 guys who could play regularly. Illinois just got deeper with the addition of Alex Legion, meaning their rotation just went from 10 guys at 11 minutes per game or more, to 11, but Mizzou's "line change" could be pretty effective, as their bench has contributed much more.

Strength of Schedule

According to KenPom.com, Mizzou's SOS is #251 (it's gone down in a hurry), UI's is #237. According to CollegeRPI.com, Mizzou's is #145, UI's is #80.

Strength of...Team

According to KenPom.com, Mizzou is currently the #8 team in the country. Illinois: #16. According to CollegeRPI.com, Mizzou is #39, Illinois #26. Lucky for Mizzou, Ken Pomeroy says the RPI is dead. So there!

Jordans

Illinois 1, Missouri 0. A clear Illini advantage here.

Conference Superiority

The Big Ten has recently asserted itself in a major way, especially against the Big 12 in particular. The Big 11 is 4-0 versus the Big 12 this year and 13-4 over the past two seasons. Granted, this year's results have been from just two teams--Michigan State (who beat OSU and Texas) and Iowa (who beat ISU and KSU)--but still...looks bad. CONFERENCE PRIDE!!!

What does StatSheet.com have to say?

God bless StatSheet...a site that is virtually guaranteed to become my favorite website over the next three months. For Braggin' Rights, they have both a written and stat-heavy preview. Plus, all the StatSheety goodies. Point spread history? Yup. DeMarre Carroll vs Mike Davis comparison? Got it. Jarrett Sutton vs Bubba Chisholm? Bingo. (Sutton kicks Bubba's butt.) Fun (and slightly blinding) player impact charts? Hell yeah...

Stats by StatSheet.com

Prediction

This is just about as evenly-matched a Braggin' Rights game has been since at least about 2002 or 2003. This one should be fun, tense, annoying, exciting, etc. I don't know why I'm even making a prediction--in the current 8-game losing streak to Illinois, I'd have probably picked MU to win in at least 5-6 of those games, because I'm me--but the numbers give the slightest of edges to Missouri. Take strength of scheulde into account, and it basically becomes a coin toss. After landing on Heads for eight straight years, surely the coin will land on Tails this time, right? Missouri 70, Illinois 69.