SB Nation - American U. Eagles

The Morning After: Post Game Articles & Quotes

Hire Esherick — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 15:59:34 -0000

Media coverage of yesterday's affair against American, not much because DC was more concerned with the snow.

"I think we are a significantly better team this year than we were at the start of the season," Thompson said. "Hopefully, we keep moving in that direction. We're getting better."

American University Eagles vs. Georgetown Hoyas - Recap - December 05, 2009 - ESPN

"They just do a great job with Monroe and [Julian] Vaughn and Sims of taking away any shots you get inside," Jones said. "I think [Georgetown] has the ability to be very good. Certainly from what I saw where I sat today and what I saw on film, I think they have a chance to be one of the best teams in the nation by the season's end."

In win, Georgetown preps for tough stretch - Washington Times

The game marked the end of a three-game, feel-good homestand for the No. 16 Hoyas and was the final tuneup before they face their first ranked opponent, No. 23 Butler, in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday.

Georgetown Hoyas defeat American Eagles, 73-46 - washingtonpost.com

"[American assistant coach] Robert Burke was pointing out to our guys that Jason [Clark] has great anticipation with a seven-foot plus wingspan so he can really play the passing lanes," American Head Coach Jeff Jones said after the game. "We were kind of hanging around and all of a sudden he makes big plays and gets big baskets."

Hoyas' Defense Grounds Eagles | The Hoya

Three players scored in double figures and nine different players scored at least one basket as No. 16 Georgetown used a balanced attack en route to a 65-36 win over District rival American in front of 10,465 fans at Verizon Center on a snowy day in Washington.

Balanced Effort Leads No. 16 Georgetown Past American, 73-46 - GEORGETOWN OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE

Sleeping With The Enemy: The American Eagles

CasualHoya — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 13:00:16 -0000

When I first got to Georgetown I was always curious about our neighbors up the road at American University. I was intrigued by the exotic name--was it the University of America? Was everyone who went there actually American? Then, as I grew older and wiser (and at the same time dumber), it became apparent to me that American was actually a pretty casual little school, and certainly more casual than GW. Most of the casual chicks I came across at classy venues such as The Cellar went to American. (Note: for those not old enough to remember The Cellar, all you need to know is that the place was a large cave that you walked down stairs to enter, had $5 all you can drink deals on Friday nights, a massive dance floor that lit up like the sidewalk in the Michael Jackson 'Billie Jean' video, two large bars, a lounge area with couches, and a place in the back where you could buy hot dogs, pizza, and puke. The Cellar was far and away the best place in the history of DC. Naturally given that DC is probably the worst major city in the country, it is now BURIED. Literally, it has been paved over.

Proud to be an American. via farm2.static.flickr.com

Anyway, big ups to Tom Schad, the men's basketball beat writer for The Eagle, for agreeing to be our latest victim in our Sleeping With The Enemy series that brings you all you need and want to know about our next opponent. Tom, this bud's for you. Away we go...

CH: What can Georgetown expect on Saturday out of this year's American squad?

Well first things first, Georgetown can expect a win. I’m not trying to be a pessimist, but AU’s record speaks for itself. After losing to the likes of Randolph-Macon, St. Francis, and Maryland-Eastern Shore, I’m pretty sure that they don’t have a shot in hell against a ranked opponent like Georgetown. The Eagles are simply too inexperienced and timid to handle the pressure of facing an elite program like they did in the NCAA Tourney last year; they had 7 seniors then and have only 1 now (backup guard Matthew Wilson). On a brighter note, you can also expect this squad to play their asses off in the loss. American is steadily improving with each passing game and has shown great hustle on the floor this year. Sure, they can’t execute to save their lives, but you won’t see this team give up easily on Saturday.

CH: This offseason former Georgetown assistant Robert Burke was 'fired' by Georgetown and then hired by American. Consequently Georgetown hired former American assistant Mike Brennan? What really happened behind the scenes? Note: If you don't have any knowledge of the situation, feel free to make it up.

Sources with knowledge of the situation have explained it to me as an under-the-table deal involving Jeff Jones and John Thompson III. Thompson was "sick of Burke’s sass" and thus offered a trade to Jones, who realized that Brennan had become too successful of a coach to remain at AU. Burke and Brennan were apparently swapped for one another, though my sources have also determined that Jones received a Georgetown t-shirt in the deal. (yes, this is completely made up)

CH: What are American's strengths and weaknesses? Who are the top performers this season?

Let’s start with the strengths. We have a quietly rising star in sophomore forward Stephen Lumpkins, who leads AU with 13.9 points per game and leads the Patriot League with 8.4 boards per game. He’s got great footwork down in the low post and works hard crashin’ the boards; quite frankly, he’s our best player. Then we’ve got a veteran playmaker in junior Nick Hendra, one of the few returning pieces from last year’s squad, and a solid 3-point shooter in freshman Mike Bersch. Defensively, we’re actually 2nd best in the Patriot League and are a decent rebounding team.
The big problem is that we can’t score. Period. We toss it down to Lumpkins in the post every once and a while, but other than that we mostly just run around in circles. Some people are afraid of heights, some hate spiders, but our team is afraid to shoot the damn ball. Nobody wants the shot, only a handful of guys will ever attack the rim, and this is why we’re struggling. I’m think this will improve over time, but for right now we’re a pretty pitiful team to watch offensively.

More Sleeping With The Enemy after 'The Jump':

CH: American showed a ton of patience with Jeff Jones as a retread coach, ultimately paying off with a strong 2 year run. Of course, AU has now returned to the dregs – how many extra years did Jones buy with his recent teams and is American a destination job or just a stepping stone as it has been for many years?

Jones is able to use the "rebuilding" excuse to defend the pitiful state of AU this year, and honestly I can’t blame him. He’s basically fielding a high school team night in and night out, and this should buy him at least 3-4 more years in this program. Plus, Jones has built up quite the resume here and is very well liked by the administration. He’s won four regular season Patriot League Championships in nine seasons at AU and has led the program to its first and second NCAA Tournament berths. Jones is easily one of the most decorated coaches in AU history, and this should also play a role in buying him more time.
As for the second part of the question, I think American has finally become a destination job. Sure it’s not the SEC or Big East, but the Patriot League is by no means a joke of a conference with prominent names like Army, Navy, and now AU. The near upset of a Final Four team last year proved that players can be successful here, and this should attract better prospects in the future and give our coaches more talent to work with.

CH: Jeff Jones was well known for "enjoying" UVA’s student body but seems to have kept calm during his time at AU. Is this because there are no hot chicks or has he mellowed with age?

Well first of all, there are plenty of hot chicks at AU so I can’t imagine that being the problem. But after watching him get in his players’ faces and go Josh McDaniels on ‘em, there’s no way I could say that he’s "mellowed" in any way. I think I’ll just take the high road and say that he’s been so focused on improving the basketball program here at AU that he hasn’t had time to "enjoy" much of anything else.

CH: Tulane has The Boot, Georgetown has The Rhino Bar and Pumphouse – if it’s last call on a Saturday and I’m part of an AU frat, where do I want to be?

I’ve heard quite a few people hang out at Clyde’s in Friendship Heights. But if you’re really a brother at AU, you’re at a frat house on Saturday night sippin’ Natty Light. The sad but true life of an AU frat brother.

CH: American is 1-7 this season, matching their loss total from last year. What gives?

It’s amazing how huge of a factor youth has been for American this year. AU fields the 5th youngest team in the NCAA, with 3 freshmen and 3 sophomores playing crucial roles in the rotation. Dan Munoz and Blake Jolivette, both freshmen, are trading off at point guard and trying to decipher Jones’ offense through his expletive-laden rants. The only two returning players who had any role on last year’s team, Lumpkins and Hendra, averaged 3.4 and 6.3 points respectively, and as a whole we lost 81% of our minutes from last year and 84% of our scoring. In short, this squad is young and still learning to play together. It’s been a tough transition for guys like Lumpkins to take on the workhorse role, and all the new guys are still trying to figure things out. That’s really the only explanation for the 1-7 start.

CH: Take us back to halftime of last year’s opening round of the NCAA Tournament. American is shooting the lights out and leads Villanova by 10. Scottie Reynolds is scoreless, and Jay Wright is already thinking of catalogues from which to choose his offseason golf outfits from. For the current group of Georgetown freshman and sophomores who don’t know what it’s like to see their team play in the Dance, how great was that moment?

At the time of that game, AU actually wasn’t my team. I was still choosing between schools and, as crazy as this may sound, watching that near upset seriously influenced my decision to come to American. Here was a school with great academics that was also competing in the NCAA tourney against ‘Nova, and it got me really excited to join the AU community. So what I’d say to your freshman and sophomores is that I’m in the same boat as you guys.

CH: Final score prediction.
Georgetown 85, American 52. The only reason that it might be closer is if Thompson decides to bench all the starters midway through the second half.

Casually

BtB 2009-10 Patriot League Preview

Chris Dobbertean — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 01:14:36 -0000

Two oddly-timed coaching changes were the big offseason stories in the Patriot League since American bowed out of the NCAA Tournament in the first round. First, Ralph Willard left his alma mater, Holy Cross, to be Rick Pitino's associate head coach at Louisville. Sean Kearney, a former assistant under Mike Brey at Notre Dame takes over in Worcester. Willard had guided the Crusaders to four NCAAs in his ten seasons at the helm, and had a great shot to make a fifth trip this season.

Meanwhile, Army made a very late change. Former Cornell assistant Zach Spiker replaced Jim Crews on October 1. Crews was about to start his eighth season at West Point and had just received a contract extension; however, athletic director Kevin Anderson felt that he had to make a change. Spiker takes over a program that could very well have its first winning season in 25. The Black Knights have never made the NCAAs. Even Bob Knight and Mike Krzyzewski were unable to guide the Cadets to the Big Dance.

Two-time defending champion American lost a lot of talent after last season, so the Patriot League should see a new winner in 2010. I'll go through each team's chances after the jump.

Let's first take a look at last season's Patriot League standings.

Patriot League Standings

(updated 3.19.2009 at 10:19 PM EDT)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
American U. Eagles	13	1	24	8
Holy Cross Crusaders	11	3	18	14
Navy Midshipmen	8	6	19	11
Army Black Knights	6	8	11	19
Lehigh Mountain Hawks	5	9	15	14
Colgate Red Raiders	5	9	10	20
Lafayette Leopards	4	10	8	22
Bucknell Bison	4	10	7	23

Now, here are my picks for the 2009-10 Patriot League season, presented in reverse order.

Lafayette (last NCAA: 2000) The Leopards featured seven freshmen last season, so the hope is the year of experience will serve the team well. Last season, Lafeyette's defense was dreadful, ranking 293rd in Division I, and the offense wasn't much better. Only two Leopards averaged in double figures, and leading scorer Andrew Brown (13.6 ppg) graduated. The other double figure scorer, G Jeff Kari (10.7 ppg, 2.7 apg) returns, as do three players who were close, sophomore F Ryan Willen (9.4 ppg), junior F Jared Mintz (9.2 ppg), and senior guard Michael Gruner (8.2 ppg). The sophomore class and the Leopards' quiet frontcourt will need to step up for Fran O'Hanlon's squad to escape the basement.

American (last NCAA: 2009) The Eagles acquitted themselves well in two straight NCAA appearances, but will have a hard time getting back to those heights after losing all five starters off last year's league champions. American picks up 6-10 F Vlad Moldoveanu in mid-December. He makes the short trip to DC from George Mason. Moldoveanu and 6-8 soph Stephen Lumpkins (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg) will anchor the Eagles' frontcourt, while swimgman Nick Hendra (6.3 ppg) will have to develop into a scorer. Head coach Jeff Jones has a five-man freshman class coming to campus that may need to step up immediately to keep AU from falling too far in the standings. 6-1 frosh Daniel Munoz is expected to replace 11.7 point and 4.4 assist per game performer Derrick Mercer at the point, an unenviable position for a newcomer.

Navy (last NCAA: 1998) The Middies finished in third place last season, but they'll be hard pressed to repeat that accomplishment after losing leading scorer Kaleo Kina (18.0 ppg) and forward Adam Teague (10.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg) to graduation and active service. The good news is that second leading scorer Chris Harris, a 6-2 guard who averaged more than 15 points per contest is back. So is defensive stalwart Romeo Garcia, who missed most of last season with hamstring problems. Garcia will help bolster the defense, and if Navy can replace Kina and Teague's scoring, they can replicate their average from last season (71 ppg) and finish quite a bit higher in the standings.

Bucknell (last NCAA: 2006) The Bison weren't very good in Dave Paulsen's first season, winning only once on the road and seven times overall. They should do far better this season, as they return four starters including 6-8 big man Patrick Behan (13.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and guards Bryan Cohen (11.8 ppg) and Darryl Shazier (7.8 ppg, 4.6 apg). They also get 2007-07 Patriot League Defensive Player of the Year Stephen Tyree back from an ACL tear. Tyree's return and a second year in Paulsen's system should lead to a marked improvement in the Bison's fortunes this season.

Colgate (last NCAA: 1996) Like Bucknell, the Raiders also get a a key player back off a season lost to injury. 6-3 swingman Kyle Roemer, a threat for all-conference honors received a sixth year of eligibility. Roemer will return to a team that is among the most balanced in the conference, as three players, guard Mike Venezia (10.8 ppg) and forwards Yaw Gwayu (10.2 ppg) and Ben Jonson (10.4 ppg) averaged in double figures last season. Seeing as Roemer averaged over 16 points in his last season, Colgate shouldn't have much trouble scoring; however, they have had trouble with possession. The Raiders will have to follow the example of point guard Anthony Hill and take better care of the ball. They'll also have to find a way to replace Alex Woodhouse's rebounds and blocks (6.3 rpg, 1.8 bpg) to be successful.

Army (last NCAA: None) The big question for the Cadets is whether the team can adjust to Spiker's system. Jim Crews believed in distributing playing time, as 12 players saw regular action last year. This paid off as Army won six league games for the second year in a row, not bad for a team that averaged two league wins a year during the five seasons before. Despite this equity, 6-4 G/F Cleveland Richard is the arguably the Black Knights' most important player, as he averaged 12 points a game while grabbing 3 boards a contest and at least a steal per game. Marcus Nelson was the conference Defensive Player of the Year and the 5-11 guard is sure to give the opposition headaches. Army's weakness is in the frontcourt, where no pure forward averaged more than 2.9 points per contest.

Lehigh (last NCAA: 2004) The Mountain Hawks have arguably the most star power in the conference, as they feature 6-7 F Zahir Carrington, the defending Pat League rebounding champ (8.6 rpg) who can also score (14 ppg) and guard Marquis Hall (13.9 ppg, 4.1 apg). However, Carrington is foul prone, which limits his effectiveness. This could be problematic this season as C Phil Anderson graduated. Hall also attracts a lot of defensive attention because of his flexibility. Point guard Prentice Small (5.5 ppg, 3.2 apg) can take some of the pressure off Hall, as can the 2007-08 conference Newcomer of the Year, Rob Keefer (8.8 ppg). If the Mountain Hawks can find a way to take some of the spotlight away from their stars, they could soar.

Holy Cross (last NCAA: 2007) Sean Kearney has an excellent chance to make the NCAA Tournament in his first year at the helm. Last year's Patriot League Newcomer ot the Year, SG R.J. Evans (13.4 ppg) is back, anchoring a backcourt that also features 3-point specialist Andrew Beinert (8.5 ppg, shooting 45.4% from beyond the arc) and Mike Cavataio, a transfer from St. John's. 6-9 C Andrew Keister (8.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg) and 6-8 C/F Eric Meister (6.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg) is the best forward tandem with last names that are off by a single letter in the country. Seriously, they are one of the best forward groups in the league, though they will have to produce a little more with the graduation of Colin Cunningham, who was a versatile performer for the Crusaders last season, scoring over 8 a game while grabbing nearly 5 boards and dishing out 3.5 assists per game. If Kearney keeps the Crusaders focused on defense and rebounding (the Cross was 13th in Division I in rebounding margin last season), he'll find his team in the field of 65.

So, the Crusaders are my preseason pick for the Patriot League crown. You'll see them in my 2009-10 Final Preseason Bracket on November 9. Now, to wrap up this preview, here is my preseason All-Patriot League team, featuring the best returning players from last season.

Preseason All-Patriot League Team

Player of the Year: R.J. Evans, 6-3 G, So. (Holy Cross)

Remainder of the Team
Zahir Harrington, 6-7 F/C, Sr. (Lehigh)
Marquis Hall, 5-11 G, Sr. (Lehigh)
Cleveland Richard, 6-4 G/F, Sr. (Army)
Kyle Roemer, 6-3 G/F, Sr. (Colgate)

Poll

Who is your pick to win the Patriot League this season?

American

1 votes

Army

0 votes

Bucknell

3 votes

Colgate

2 votes

Holy Cross

19 votes

Lafayette

0 votes

Lehigh

2 votes

Navy

3 votes

30 votes | Poll has closed

A Game (or Two) a Night: December 2009

Chris Dobbertean — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 01:05:39 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

Michigan State Junior G Kalin Lucas (1) is the only player in this picture who will be present at the rematch of the 2009 National Championship Game on December 1 in Chapel Hill. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Browse more photos »

December as a month features the last few multi-team events of the season and the bulk of conference challenge action. It's also a time when most teams have to wedge games between exams and holidays and fans have to dodge stale holiday specials and on filter through bowl games to find hoops on their TV sets. Believe me, there will be plenty of televised college basketball over the last week of the year--including a return of action, island-style to Christmas Day itself. So, if you find yourself needing a break from football, there will be roundball!

You'll find my December picks after the jump. For information about the other games on the air during the final month of 2009, visit MattSarzSports.com.

Tuesday, December 1
Michigan State at North Carolina (ACC/Big Ten Challenge) (ESPN, 9 ET)
The rematch of last year's National Championship game is exactly why I feel that these conference challenges should be moved to the second half of the season. While this game should be pretty good as is (especially since it's at the Dean Dome), it would be even better if played six or so weeks later, so both teams, particularly the younger Tar Heels, can have more of a chance to gel.

Wednesday, December 2
Pittsburgh at Duquesne (CBS CS, 7 ET)
Now, if the Dukes had been allowed to advance in the CBE Classic, they could've shared the Sprint Center with the Panthers. They'll have to be satisfied with sharing the floor at the Igloo one more time, as this game moves to the Penguins new rink in 2010.

Thursday, December 3
Cleveland State at Wright State (ESPNU, 9 ET)
The Horizon League season starts early, and this matchup features two teams who are serious threats to Butler in the race. The Vikings won the conference's auto bid last season, and then upset Wake Forest. The Raiders were a bid thief in 2007.

Friday, December 4
Akron at Texas A&M (FS Southwest, 8 ET)
Fridays are typically light nights during the season. (Trust me, you'll see what I mean in my next couple of posts.) The Zips have a good chance at repeating in the MAC. (Well, as good of a chance as anyone else who's tried of late.) Meanwhile, the Aggies should be on their way to figuring out how to play without Chinemelu Elonu in the middle.

Saturday, December 5
Wake Forest at Gonzaga (ESPN2, 5:30 ET)
A matchup of two teams who will be very competitive despite significant losses, James Johnson and Jeff Teague in the Deacons' case and Austin Daye, Micah Downs, Josh Heytvelt, and Jeremy Pargo for the Bulldogs.

Sunday, December 6
Arizona at Oklahoma (Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series) (ESPNU, 7 ET)
Sean Miller brings his Wildcats, bolstered by some last-minute recruits, to Norman to take on a Griffin-less, but still potent Sooner squad. Kansas at UCLA earns honorable mention honors. And I'll be at the BB&T Classic to see Villanova take on Maryland.

Monday, December 7
Long Beach State at Texas (ESPNU, 9 ET)
The only nationally televised game of the night (though I will pick regional telecasts later). The 49ers continue their aggressive scheduling (as they're the "host" school at the 76 Classic this year), taking on a Damion James-led Longhorn team who should challenge the Jayhawks at the top of the Big 12.

Tuesday, December 8
Vanderbilt at Illinois (Big Ten, 8:30 ET)
The Illini won by 6 in Nashville last year, but the Commodores could give them an even better game in the return. Honorable mention goes to the Jimmy V Classic, Butler vs. Georgetown and Indiana vs.Pittsburgh. Who would've ever forseen a day where the Bulldogs might be the most highly rated team of that group of four?

Wednesday, December 9
Kentucky vs Connecticut (Big East/SEC Invitational) (ESPN, 9:30 ET) If the undercard of Georgia vs. St. John's puts the crowd at MSG to sleep, I think Calipari vs. Calhoun should wake them up.

Thursday, December 10
Syracuse vs. Florida (Big East/SEC Invitational) (ESPN, 9 ET)
Since these are my two favorite teams, this was the obvious choice for me.

Friday, December 11
Iowa vs. Iowa State (Cyclones TV, 8 ET)
This matchup of two teams with coaches who really need to start winning is the only game on the TV schedule for tonight.

Saturday, December 12
Georgetown vs Washington (John Wooden Classic) (FSN, 2 ET)
The Hoyas do something under JohnThompson III that his father would've never done, travel cross-country for a non-league game. The Huskies sure aren't St. Leo's.
I would have selected the second half of the doubleheader, Mississippi State vs. UCLA, but Renardo Sidney's eligibility issues make this game slightly less attractive.

Sunday, December 13
Cincinnati at Xavier (ESPNU, 7 ET)
The Crosstown Shootout should be a great one this year. The Musketeers have been the best team in the city over the past few seasons. They have wins in the last two in the series. The Bearcats, meanwhile, should be far more competitive in Mick Cronin's fourth year at the helm, especially with Lance Stevenson joining the team.

Monday, December 14
Georgia Tech at Chattanooga (FS South, 7 ET)
The Yellow Jackets visit to the SoCon tourney champions is the only game on the TV schedule on this Monday.

Tuesday, December 15
Georgia State at Florida State (FS Florida, 7 ET)
The transfer-filled Panthers will look to repeat their 62-57 win over the Seminoles in Atlanta last year.

Wednesday, December 16
Wright State at Mississippi State (ESPN2, 7 ET)
Last year, the Bulldogs dropped December home games to Charlotte and San Diego. This year, it's the Raiders turn to try to pull an upset at the Hump.

Thursday, December 17
Auburn at Florida State (FS Florida/NESN, 7 ET)
The NIT quarterfinalist's visit to Tallahassee is the best option on a very light night.

Friday, December 18
As there are no televised games listed for this night, it would be a good time to wrap up your holiday shopping.

Saturday, December 19
UCLA at Notre Dame (CBS, 2 ET)
Saturday makes up for the lackluster slate during exam week, as we also have Michigan at Kansas, North Carolina at Texas, and Duke vs. Gonzaga on the schedule. The Bruins trip to South Bend gets a very slight nod, as these two on-again/off-again hoops rivals last met in 2005.

Sunday, December 20
Florida State at Georgia Tech (FSN, 5:30 ET)
The Seminoles and Yellow Jackets open their ACC seasons in Atlanta.

Monday, December 21
UTEP vs. Oklahoma (Oklahoma City) (ESPN2, 6:30 ET)
The Miners hope to be among the teams to unseat a weakened Memphis in C-USA. A win over the Sooners in their backyard would be a great confidence-builder for them.

Tuesday, December 22
California at Kansas (ESPN2, 9 ET)
While this game isn't technically a part of the Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series, it is a matchup of two teams who each have an excellent chance of winning their respective conference's crown.

Wednesday, December 23
Illinois vs. Missouri (St. Louis) (ESPN2, 8:30 ET)
The Illini actually won this one by 16 last year. The Tigers could have a hard time gaining revenge without the services of DeMarre Caroll, Matt Lawrence, and Leo Lyons.

Thursday, December 24
It's Christmas Eve, so there are no games scheduled.

Friday, December 25
Diamond Head Classic Final (ESPN2, 9:30 ET)
This tournament features some rebuilding squads (St. Mary's, USC, UNLV), a few teams who haven't been relevant for awhile (host Hawai'i, SMU, and Western Michigan) and two mid-majors who could do really well against this particular group of teams (College of Charleston and Northeastern)

Saturday, December 26
West Virginia at Seton Hall (CBS, 3:30 ET)
Oddly enough, this Big East battle is the only game on the Boxing Day schedule.

Sunday, December 27
Austin Peay at Missouri (FS Midwest, 2 ET)
This is one of three games on the schedule. The Governors are perennial contenders in the Ohio Valley, and they'll be looking to pull a seed-boosting upset at Mizzou Arena.

Monday, December 28
American at Florida (FS Florida, 8:30 ET)
The two-time defending Patriot League champs who appear to be destined for a fall take on a two-time National Champion who already has taken one.

Tuesday, December 29
Penn State at Minnesota (ESPN2, 9 ET)
It's the Big Ten opener for the NIT Champion and a Gopher squad that may have just pipped them to an NCAA bid last time around. I would have selected Northern Iowa at Creighton, which should match up the two best teams in the Missouri Valley, but that game is currently only scheduled for local TV

Wednesday, December 30
Northwestern at Illinois (Big Ten, 7 ET)
The Wildcats open up their Big Ten slate with a trip to their in-state rival.

Thursday, December 31
Oklahoma at Gonzaga (ESPN2, 10 ET)
While it won't quite be November 17, it will be a marathon day on ESPN2, starting at noon. Michigan at Indiana, Ohio State at Wisconsin, and Tennessee at Memphis are all featured matchups during the day. However, I'll take the inter-sectional matchup to close the day, month, and year out as my choice. (Watching a million drunk people go crazy over a lighted ball dropping is so 2000.) There's also a good Pac-10 option, Arizona State at UCLA on FSN as part of their New Year's Eve festivities.

That will close out 2009, my games for January will follow tomorrow evening.

Where are College Basketball's top metropolitan areas?

SFBE.NF — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 02:12:51 -0000

When in doubt...make a list. When you're in the end of August, and many are completey rearing their head towards pennant races and the start of football season, just make a damn list - and you might get some attention.

There's a ton of great college towns in America. We all know them, and we all have spent 4+ years there or maybe a wild weekend in a blur of inebriation. Please, we aren't asking for your stories.

But there's also some major markets in this country that can claim the name as a "College City," where fans ignore their crappy professional teams and fuel the talk radio waves with (basketball) recruiting buzz, conference titles, and a deep run in March.

After the jump are our Five Top College Basketball Metropolitan Areas.

1- Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, North Carolina

The area of Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill receives its number one ranking almost strictly because of two teams: Duke and UNC. No surprise there. The bad blood between these two schools has solidified itself as one of the best rivalries in all of sports, and for good reason. Ask Dick Vitale about this 8 mile war path that separates the two schools and you will receive a bevy of adjectives (mostly made up words) more fit for a NC-17 movie. Both schools are perennial national championship contenders and have produced 17 National Player of the Year honors, appeared in 21 Final Fours and hold eight National Championship Trophies.

While being in the top 10 all season is expected for both these programs, their rankings are completely irrelevant when they hit the hardwood (well at least Blue Devil fans have been holding on to that statement lately). It’s Duke and UNC and that’s really all that matters.

Success from both sides has generated a lot of verbal shots between their students and fans. While Blue Devil undergrads will tell you that the only trace of intelligent life in Chapel Hill is a sign directing you to Duke’s campus, Tar Heel students have made a hobby of explicitly voicing their opinions on Duke’s top players and their unfavorable sexual preference...and lack of African-American talent.

Completing "The Triangle" is North Carolina State. Located just east of Duke and UNC in Raleigh, NC State is a nationally recognized program and always competitive in the ACC.

2- Philadelphia

In addition to boasting four major professional sports teams, The City of Brotherly Love is also home to a one of a kind tradition in college basketball. The Big 5, comprised of La Salle, Saint Joseph's, Temple, Pennsylvania and Villanova are all located within a 17 mile radius of each other, and many of the games are played at the historic Palestra located on Penn’s campus.

The Big 5 was formed in 1955 and games were played as double or tripleheaders. As schools began to join conferences, conflicts with scheduling arose and it became more difficult to allow all the schools to play each other. By 1991 the format was non-existent, but eight years later the series was back, much to the delight of the fans.

The most notable rivalry within the Big 5 is between St. Joes and Villanova. Dubbed the Holy War for the schools religious affiliations, the game is sort of an inferior vs. superior match-up. St. Joseph's is a smaller school who would love to shake the mid-major label, while 'Nova is in the Big East...and frankly a notch higher on the academic hierarchy.

3- Cincinnati

At first you may question the credibility of this mid-sized Midwestern city, the setting to the now infamous Karen Sypher abortion, as a college hoops hot bed, but consider this: In addition to being the location for the University of Cincinnati and Xavier, two schools separated by just a few unsafe neighborhoods, the city is within 100 miles of Dayton, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisville, Miami of Ohio and Ohio State. UK plays at least one game a season in Cincy, Andy Kennedy causes trouble in Cincy, and many grads from the nearby universities land jobs here creating a brew pot of bad blood.

The rivalry between XU and UC may not get enough national attention as it deserves. While UC, a public school, has had more success in the past 20 years with 14 straight NCAA Tournament appearances from 1992-2005, the Musketeers have won nine of the last 13 meetings. Some say that the rivalry has lost some of its luster with the departure of Bobby Huggins coupled with Xavier's inability to retain a head coach, but true fans in Cincinnati know that the local media hype and hostility between the two sides will continue to exist regardless.

4- Louisville, Kentucky

You can't exclude the Bluegrass state in a ranking like this, so by default Louisville gets the nod. Undoubtedly this will be on of the most anticipated seasons on record for Cardinal and Wildcat fans. From a summer filled with John Calipari and John Wall, Rick Pitino and Karen Sypher, the tides have quickly turned and it may be the school in Lexington with the upper hand as it's grads continue to flock roughly 100 miles to work and start fights with their rival during the weekends.

5- Washington, D.C.-Baltimore

While the top four metropolitan rankings have been predicated on rivalries, the DC-Baltimore area simply boasts a good amount of quality college basketball. Maryland is a perennial powerhouse in the ACC, has won a National Championship in 2002, and have rabid fans that are still probably chanting derogatory comments about JJ Redick's sister. It is also rumored that much of the Chesapeake River water flow begins at Gary Williams post game laundry basket.

Georgetown, one of the more successful teams in the 1980s and 1990s under John Thompson, has re-established themselves in the Big East under his son John Thompson III.

The area is also home to mildly successful George Washington, one-hit wonder George Mason, American University, Coppin St, Howard, Loyola College, Morgan St, Towson St and UMBC.

It is also worth mentioning that Prince George's County is an absloute hot bed for producing major Division I, and in turn NBA, talent

Crisis averted in Philly, Abrams hits from deep times eight

SFBE.NF — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 15:37:16 -0000

#10 Michigan - #7 Clemson: It's one and done for the Tigers once again and Michigan proves they were worthy of a tournament berth. Manny Harris was the again the focus of a Wolverines win, writes The Detroit Free Press' Mark Snyder. Meeeghican wins 62-59 win. The score does not indicate how the Wolverines controlled this game; at one point holding a 16 point lead in the second half. Through two NCAA Tournament games, Terrence Oglesby has shown to have serious stage fright -- he's 2-19 from the field including last year's first round loss to Villanova. Michigan gets their first tournament win since 1998, and a date with POY Blake Griffin in Saturday.
#10 Minnesota - #7 Texas: One Big 10 bubble team moves on, while another falls. Texas toyed with the Gophers for the first 25 minutes of the game, even falling behind by 10 points, then went for the jugular--shooting 47 perecnt and pulling away for a 76-62 win. Everyone's favorite gunslinger, AJ Abrams, was on tonight eading all with 26 on 8-15 three point shooting. The Austin American Statesman's Kirk Bohls writes that Rick Barnes went against his conventional coaching style, shortened his bench, and got the win. Tubby Smith has a great resurgance season for the program, but no NCAA Tournament win to show for it.
#14 American University - #3 Villanova: The game of the night, American University blocked out the obscene home-court advantage for Nova, holding a 12 point lead at the half. Apparently Garrison Carr was the real deal, scoring 22 points, but it wasnt enough. Dante Cunningham and Dwanye Anderson gets 25 (a career high), as Villanova wakes up and prevails 80-67. Simply put, it was crisis averted for the Wildcats says the Philadelphia Inquirer's Phil Sheridan. No doubt, a true bracket buster win had the Eagles pulled it off.
#13 Akron - #4 Gonzaga: It may have been nerve-racking for Zags fans to be locked up in a tight one with the Zips, but I expected it. The Bulldogs took 30 minutes to wake up, then went off with a 31-6 run in the second half to ensure victory. The Bulldogs get four to finish in double figures and hit 26-31 free-throws. They move on winning 77-64. While the offensive output is the story, it was getting back to defense writes the Spokane Reviews's Jim Meehan, that got them the win.

My Tournament Picks

SHammonds — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 04:49:43 -0000

Everyone by now has filled out their brackets. It is a national pastime that usually leads to someone's girlfriend beating them because she picked teams based on their mascots or jerseys. Its embarrassing, but usually happens. Luckily (or unluckily, depending on how my night at the bar goes) I don't have a girlfriend, so there is no embarrassment in posting my 2009 Tournament picks. However, to those of you with girlfriends, beware of the mascot trick. It gets you every time.

Without further ado, here are my picks!

Now I know they may be hard to see. Just click on the picture and it will blow up larger for you, if you're so inclined.

Also, these are not the official Blogger So Dear bracket picks. These are my own, which is why they differ. The official picks were broken down region by region earlier today and yesterday.

Brief explanations after the jump...

EAST REGION (picks in bold)

1 Pitt vs. 16 E. Tennessee St. - Pitt is just too good. KenPom gives E. Tennessee St. a 6% chance of winning this game, and honestly, that may still be too high. The 2nd most efficient offensive team, with the 34th most efficient defense, Pitt is too well rounded for the 112th ranked, undersized (185 in effective height) Bucs.

8 Oklahoma St. vs. 9 Tennessee - Unlike the Bucs, this section of Tennessee is not undersized at all, ranking 50th in effective height. This will be a very close game against the 32nd ranked Vols and the 33rd ranked Cowboys. KenPom splits this game down the middle, but the size and big game experience of Tennessee give them the edge in this close close game. Honestly, the only thing that pushes this the Vols way is that Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism have been there while Anderson hasn't.

5 FSU vs. 12 Wisonsin - Well, Wisconsin shouldn't be in the tournament, and they won't last long. KenPom disagrees, giving the 'Noles a 47% chance of winning, but I just feel like Toney Douglas is too hot right now for a slow, less-athletic Badgers team to stop. Also, FSU's defense is vastly underrated, they are the 12th most efficient defense in the nation, actually more efficient than Wisconsin's (59). I just think Toney Douglas is on a mission.

4 Xavier vs. 13 Portland St. - Despite this game basically being a home game for the 119th ranked Vikings, I think that 24th ranked Xavier has is locked up. They are a tall bunch, ranked 19th in effective height. Portland St. is 187th. Also, while the Vikings rarely get to the stripe (324 in the nation in FTA/FGA), Xavier is 5th in the same stat, getting 23% of their points from the stripe.

6 UCLA vs. 11 VCU - Somewhat of a gut pick. Eric Maynor is playing lights out, and they stomped George Mason in the CAA title game. VCU is very well rounded, scoring 27% of their points behind the arc and 20% from the stripe. They are 61st in the country in effective FG%. UCLA is the 3rd most efficient offensive team, and usually a Final Four lock, but Eric Maynor can easily be the best player on the court if he plays well, and Larry Sanders will clog up the middle, disrupting the two point scoring ability of UCLA, where they get 57% of their points (58th in the nation).

3 Villanova vs. 14 American - Game is in Philly, Villanova has only lost once there this year...to the #1 ranked team in the country...by one point. No upset here.

7 Texas vs. 10 Minnesota - Texas is the 28th ranked team in the nation, while Minny is 45th. Texas is very big (54th in effective height) and well rounded (47th offensively, 29th defensively). They do get a bulk of their point from inside the line (60%), which could be a problem against the #1 ranked team in Block Percentage, but A.J. shoots around 40% outside the arc, and is too good to let his team lose to an inexperienced (307th ranked) Minny squad.

2 Duke vs. 15 Binghampton - D.J. Rivera is good, but Duke is 4th in O-efficiency and 17th in D-efficiency...no upset here.

SOUTH REGION

1 UNC vs. 16 Radford - Game is in Greensboro; with or without Lawson, this game's a rout.

8 LSU vs. 9 Butler - If J'Nathan Bullock can take over against Matt Howard, imagine what Tasmin Mitchell can do. Butler is good, but too young and not as athletic as the Tigers. Go with LSU. 24th in experience against 341st, and their best player matched up against Mitchell, it just seems like a no-brainer to me, but I have been wrong before.

5 Illinois vs. 12 Western Kentucky - This game was close. We all know about Illinois scoring struggles. That said, they are still the 23rd ranked team in KenPom and have the 4th most efficient defense. Thats just too good for the Hilltoppers, who are much shorter (224th nationally vs. 13th nationally) and are only 67th in O-efficiency.

4 Gonzaga vs. 13 Akron - Akron isn't good, the game is in Portland, look elsewhere for your upset. 5th in KenPom vs. 90th.

6 Arizona St. vs. 11 Temple - Its a battle of two great shooting guards, but I think Harden takes it over Christmas. 12th ranked team vs. the 47th ranked team. ASU is the 5th most efficient offensive team and 2nd in effective FG%. Go with the Sun Devils.

3 Syracuse vs. 14 Stephen F. Austin - 'Cuse is not tired. I don't want to hear that excuse. So they played one extra game. Their tournament ended Saturday and they play Friday. Thats enough time. They dispatch of the Lumberjacks.

7 Clemson vs. 10 Michigan - I don't think Michigan should be in the tournament either, and Clemson is better than a 7 seed. They are 22nd via KenPom and have the 11th most efficient offense on top of the 52nd most efficient defense. Look for Booker to overwhelm Sims down low as the Tigers take this game.

2 Oklahoma vs. 15 Morgan State - Love Bozeman's story, but hate to tell him that he's one and done thanks to Blake Griffin.

MIDWEST REGION

1 Louisville vs. 16 Morehead State - Louisville takes their second most efficient defense in the country and shuts down the 341st ranked team in effective height...could be painful to watch.

8 Ohio State vs. 9 Siena - I know I sang the Saints praises all year, but this is a tough draw for them. The Bucks block a lot of shots and are tall. They have the 26th ranked offense, and Evan Turner is good. Siena is a good team, but they get 61% of their points inside the arc (7th in the nation). Those are shots that the taller Buckeyes (Siena is 302nd in effective height) should block or alter. I think it will be close, but Siena doesn't repeat last year's success.

5 Utah vs. 12 Arizona - This is a tough game for me, because I don't think Arizona deserves to be in. That said, Utah is a weak 5 seed. Luke Nevill helps them have a higher offensive rebound percentage than any other team in the country, but they don't force any turnovers at all. Couple that with Arizona's 8th ranked offense and better than average turnover percentage and I think the Wildcats take it.

4 Wake Forest vs. 13 Cleveland State - Basically, I couldn't post this if I had this game going any other way. We all know why Wake wins if they show up, and I think they show up. Cleveland State plays man, so as long as Wake doesn't feel the need to chuck up threes, they win.

6 West Virginia vs. 11 Dayton - WVU is 8th via KenPom, Dayton is 83rd. West Virginia has the 15th ranked offense and 7th ranked defense. Those numbers for Dayton are 142 and 39, respectively. I take WVU in this for those reasons.

3 Kansas vs. 14 North Dakota State - N.D. State is a great team, but not great enough to top the defending champs. Kansas' 20th ranked offense and 15th ranked defense proves too much for the Bison.

7 BC vs. 10 USC - ACC homer pick alert! Southern Cal is much higher via KenPom, and is first in block percentage in the nation. That said, they are only 133 in 3P% allowed, which is where BC gets a quarter of their points. I just think Rice wins this for the Eagles.

2 Michigan St. vs. 15 Robert Morris - MSU is the weakest 2 seed in my opinion, but too strong to be knocked off by RMU. No upset here.

WEST REGION

1 UConn vs. 16 Chattanooga - UConn wins, even without Dyson.

8 BYU vs. Texas A&M - BYU has the 21st ranked offense and the 23rd ranked defense. They love to run, which Texas A&M doesn't (232 in adjusted tempo). A&M gets to the line a lot, but I think BYU will control the tempo and take this game.

5 Purdue vs. 12 UNI - If this were Creighton instead of UNI, I would take Creighton. But it isn't, and I won't. Purdue is 14th via KenPom, and has the 5th ranked defense and 52nd ranked offense. They only allow the 9th lowest effective FG%, compare that to UNI's mediocre effective FG% (65th ranked) and I take Purdue and Hummel.

4 Washington vs. 13 Mississippi St. - A lot of people have this as an upset pick. I disagree. Washington has the 37th ranked offense and 11th ranked defense in the country. Also, the game is in Portland. Washington gets a ton of O-Rebounds too, 3rd in the country in O-rebound percentage. Couple that with a terrible defensive O-Rebounding percentage for Miss St. (264 in the nation) and I think Brockman could get about 500 rebounds.

6 Marquette vs. 11 Utah State - Even without James I think Marquette takes this game. Wesley Matthews and Jerel McNeal will run all over USU's guards, and Lazar Hayward should match up decently with Wilkinson. USU is a solid team, but keep in mind that Marquette kept every game close even without James.

3 Missouri vs. 14 Cornell - Mizzou is too good to lose this game. Go with Mizzou, no other analysis needed.

7 California vs. 10 Maryland - Here's the thing, Cal is the best shooting 3P team in the nation, but only gets a quarter of their points outside the arc. However, they don't get to the line very often. The problem is, Maryland is even worse in FTA/FGA (334th nationally). However, Cal's defense caters to Maryland's strengths. They allow opponents to score 57% of their points from 2 point range, which is exactly what Maryland likes, scoring 57% of their points within the pain. Also, Greivis is hot, and Gary Williams is a great game coach. I go with Maryland.

2 Memphis vs. 15 CS Northridge - I don't like Memphis, but they are too good to lose this game.

SECOND ROUND

EAST REGION

1 Pitt vs. 9 Tennessee - Pitt again has the second rated offense in the nation, and is first in O-Rebounding percentage. They might not be the tallest bunch, but we all know that Blair plays like a madman around the rim, as evidenced by his domination of Thabeet. Add in Levance Fields and Sam Young and I think they have the talent to make a long long run. Tennessee has a tall team, but allow a 30.3 O-Rebounding percentage against their opponents; not terrible (68th nationally), but couple that with Pitt's stellar percentage and that equals a good amount of second chance buckets that Blair almost always converts.

5 FSU vs. 4 Xavier - Again, I think the play of Toney Douglas pushes FSU over the top in this one. Xavier is efficient on both offense and defense, but I don't think they have an answer for Douglas defensively. They are 337 nationally in Block percentage, which basically means an open lane for Douglas to get into and make things happen. Also, FSU gets to the line pretty often, and are a good FT shooting team. Xavier is above average in opponents FTA/FGA, but I think FSU gets to the line more than Xavier likes, and converts. That coupled with Douglas means a FSU win.

11 VCU vs. 3 Villanova - Like 2007, VCU only wins one tourney game. Villanova gets to the line a lot (31st in FTA/FGA) and converts, (29th in FT%). Larry Sanders will foul those driving guards that 'Nova has. Eric Maynor will put up points on this team that allows 33.9% 3 point shooting, but it won't be enough as VCU doesn't get enough points at the foul line (only 20%) and allows too many O-Rebounds. 'Nova plays a faster game than VCU likes, and I think Wright will push the tempo against a team with not much of a bench.

7 Texas vs. 2 Duke - A lot of people, experts included, have Texas taking this game. I see how it could happen, I just don't see it happening. Duke has the 4th most efficient offense in the nation and the 17th ranked defense. Compare that to Texas' ranks of 47 and 29 respectively. Texas does have some quality bigs in Pittman and Atchley, but they allow 34% from behind the arc, where Duke thrives, getting 28% of their points. Couple that with the 51st ranked FTA/FGA and I believe Duke gets enough from their guards to get the win.

SOUTH REGION

1 UNC vs. 8 LSU - With or without Lawson I see the 'Heels taking this. The nations most efficient offense thrives on Lawson's (the nations most efficient player) contributions, but any of Hansbrough, Ellington, and Green can go off at any point against LSU. I see the Tigers throwing two-three defenders at Hansbrough all game, but unlike FSU, they don't have Toney Douglas. No doubt Marcus Thornton will make an impact, and we all know what Mitchell can do, but LSU plays a slower ball game than UNC (148 nationally) and Frasor can handle the run and gun, albeit not as well as Lawson. I see the 'Heels taking this one regardless of Lawson.

4 Gonzaga vs. 5 Illinois - Unlike WKU, Gonzaga can score efficiently. This game pits the 5th most efficient offense (and 9th ranked defense) against the 4th most efficient defense (but 96th ranked offense). The problem for Illinois will be getting to the line. They are 344th in FTA/FGA, which is terrible. Gonzaga is 26th in the nation in terms of keeping the other team off the stripe. They are 10th in effective FG% and will be one of the most well-oiled offensive machines Illinois has seen all year. Illinois will slow them down, but Gonzaga will return the favor. It will be a low scoring affair, but Gonzaga should take it easily in my opinion.

6 Arizona St. vs. 3 Syracuse - Again, I think 'Cuse will be ready to go, I while I think Harden might be the best player they've seen all year, they have seen a Marquette team with two great guards in Matthews and McNeal. They are 9th in the nation in 3P% allowed, which is huge for ASU as they get 35% of their points behind the arc (29th nationally). ASU is a great offensive team, but I see Syracuse having too many weapons in Flynn, Devendorf, Harris, and Rautins for ASU to take this game.

7 Clemson vs. 2 Oklahoma - Honestly, this will be a battle of the bigs between Booker and Griffin. Booker is a great player, but I don't think he, or anyone else, can slow down Griffin. Oklahoma shoots 56% in their 2 point buckets, Clemson allows 46%. It should be a close enough game, but Oklahoma should get to the line enough (9th in FTA/FGA) to lock this one up.

MIDWEST REGION

1 Louisville vs. 8 Ohio State - This game should be closer than people expect it to be. The game is in Dayton, which should have a good contingent of both teams fans, but I see Ohio State getting the slight advantage in their home state. That said, Louisville has the 2nd rated defense in the nation. They only allow a 44% effective FG%. Ohio State only has the 72nd rated defense, but does have the 9th best effective FG% in the country. The problem is that Ohio State mostly plays zone, and UL gets 33% of their points from behind the arc, so that shouldn't effect them. However, UL's defense is strong both inside and outside the arc. UL should take this.

4 Wake Forest vs. 12 Arizona - Everything I talked about up to this point should convince me to take Arizona in this game. They play zone, Wake only shoots 32% from behind the arc and only gets 15% of their points from there. However, Wake does shoot 54% from within the arc, and is 25th in the nation in terms of getting to the line. Arizona doesn't get to the line, but is 7th in limiting their opponents FTs. That said, they also allow the 214th worst 2P%. If Wake doesn't try and shoot over the zone, they should hit their shots, and get some fouls along the way to winning this game.

6 West Virginia vs. 3 Kansas - I'd like for WVU to take this game, but I don't think it will happen. WVU is a more efficient team offensively and defensively, but don't shoot well from behind the arc, and Kansas is capable running the zone. Kansas is also in the top 53 in all three shooting catergories (3P, 2P, and FT), while WVU peaks at 147 in FT shooting. It will be a close game, but I take Self and the 34th tallest team in the nation over Huggy and the 102nd tallest.

7 Boston College vs. 2 Michigan State - BC barely squeaked by USC in the first round, and I can't honestly take them over MSU in this game. BC has a solid offense, but their defense falls to 132 in the nation. They don't force many turnovers, and aren't above 91 in any allowed shot percentage. MSU doesn't shoot the lights out, but are 5th in O-Rebounding percentage. BC is 311 in O-Rebounding Percentage allowed. That adds up to BC usually allowing MSU to hit shots, and if they don't, letting Suton and Raymar Morgan gobble up boards.

WEST REGION

1 UConn vs. 8 BYU - This should be an interesting game. UConn doesn't play as fast as BYU, but has the third rated defense in the nation in terms of efficiency. They only allow 31% of 3-point shots to fall, and only 40% of shots within the arc to fall. They are also first in the nation in not allowing their opponents to get to the stripe in terms of FTA/FGA. BYU doesn't rely on any shot, evenly spread out between 3-point shots, 2-pointers, and FTs. That said, they shoot very well from behind (33rd nationally) and within (8th nationally) the arc. I'm not sure how much of an impact Thabeet will have as they don't take it to the hoop as hard as others do, but the main difference will be the fact that despite this, UConn is the 2nd tallest team in the nation, and the 34th most experienced. Calhoun will win this for them.

5 Purdue vs. 4 Washington - I like Purdue and Hummel, but they don't match up well with the 6th fastest team in terms of adjusted tempo in the nation. Washington gets a ton of O-Rebounds, blocks a lot of shots, and gets to the line as well as anyone. Compare that to a Purdue team that is 127th in allowing O-Rebounds, and really struggles getting to the line (249th in FTA/FGA) and this game matches up well for Washington. This will be a battle, but free throws and second chance points, coupled with fast break points will win this for Washington.

6 Marquette vs. 3 Missouri - This is where losing a distributing PG like James will hurt the Golden Eagles. Mizzou has the second highest steal percentage in the nation, and only allows 30% 3-point shooting. Marquette gets 27% of their points from behind the arc, and I would guess without James breaking down defenses, that number is higher since he left. Also, without their point, their tenth rated TO% will not live up to form against a ball-hawking Mizzou team. Marquette will get to the line, but not enough to top Mizzou.

10 Maryland vs. 2 Memphis - Memphis has the top rated defense in terms of efficiency, and is also #1 in effective FG% allowed. Now, remember, half of their games were against Conference USA competition, but Maryland only has the 72nd rated offense and has the 260th ranked effective FG%. This translates to a poor offensive day for the Terps, and a loss. If they got to the line more efficiently they could win, but they are 334 in FTA/FGA. Sorry Greivis, game over.

SWEET SIXTEEN

EAST REGION

1 Pitt vs. 5 FSU - The second most efficient offense against the 12 most efficient defense. The issue for the 'Noles in this game will come on the boards, as the Panthers are the highest ranked team in terms of O-Rebounding percentage. The 'Noles are 274 in O-Rebounding percentage allowed. Levance Fields will be one of the better defenders Douglas has seen all year, and Blair will tear it up inside. However, I think Sam Young will be the highlight of this game as I don't see anyone who can match up well inside and out on FSU. FSU is a lot taller than Pitt, but look how that faired for UConn. When DeJuan Blair is on your squad it doesn't matter how tall the other team is.

2 Duke vs. 3 Villanova - This game will be a battle of the guards, coupled with Cunningham duking it out down low against Singler. These teams match up very evenly, but what gives Duke the edge is Villanova's not-stellar 3-Point defense. They allow opponents to shoot 34% and score 35% of their points behind the arc. Duke shoots 35% and their 3-point shooting accounts for 28% of their scoring. If Duke can shoot over 'Nova's zone, they win, if not, they lose. I think they can, and they will.

SOUTH REGION

1 UNC vs. 4 Gonzaga - This is another game many people are predicting an upset in. I see Lawson being back by the second weekend of the tournament, and therefore the 'Heels winning this game. This will be a close game, but what will push it the 'Heels way will the FT disparity. The Zags are only 217 in terms of getting to the line, and the 'Heels are 6th best in opponent's FTA/FGA. The Zags have the best 2-point defense in the nation, but the 'Heels are more than capable of hitting the three-point shot, shooting 37%. These teams are very similar teams, and the Zags are taller and older. However, the Heels have more big game experience after last years Final 4 run, and I think they pull this out but only WITH Lawson, and I think he plays.

2 Oklahoma vs. 3 Syracuse - Blake Griffin will be a man in this game down low, as Syracuse only has the 185th best 2-point defense. That said, I think Syracuse has more weapons outside the paint than Oklahoma. Flynn will run all Austin Johnson, who is a good point, but nowhere near Flynn's level in my opinion. Syracuse has the 6th highest 2-point FG% and only allows opponents to shoot 29.5% behind the arc. OU does get 26% of their points behind the arc, so Syracuse should limit that. Harris and Onuaku are some sturdy bigs who should hang with Griffin down low and should be a formidable double team. I just see Flynn upping the tempo in this, penetrating like he did against UConn, and outrunning and outgunning an Oklahoma team totally reliant on Griffin.

MIDWEST

1 Louisville vs. 4 Wake Forest - This is a bold pick, but I think Jeff Teague wins this one. It is in Indianapolis, which will be huge for him. Louisville runs a man defense, which should be good for Wake. The problem for UL will be FTs, as they are only 283rd in FTA/FGA and 302nd in FT%. Wake on the other hand is 25th in FTA/FGA and shoots 71% from the stripe. Wake is also the tallest team in the nation. If Wake employs that length and puts Johnson on T-Williams, they should be able to shut down Williams. These teams each have a glaring weakness: Wake's is three point shooting, UL's is FT shooting and opportunities. The difference: UL isn't equipped to exploit Wake's weakness, while Wake can exploit UL's.

2 Michigan State vs. 3 Kansas - In my opinion, MSU is the weakest 2 seed by far. They aren't spectacular at anything outside of O-Rebounding percentage. The reason I pick Kansas in this game is because of how well rounded they are. They are the 37th ranked 3-point shooting team and the 33rd ranked 2-point shooting team. MSU isn't as effective a shooting team, but also allow 47.4% of opponents 2-point shots to drop, only 137 in the nation. I see Sherron Collins driving and dishing Kansas to a victory.

WEST REGION

1 UConn vs. 4 Washington - UConn doesn't allow as many offensive rebounds as the other squads Washington has faced, so the Huskies can't rely on those boards like they have in the past. The problem for Washington in this one is that they like to go inside getting 60% of their points in there (22nd nationally) and they don't get blocked very much. This is a problem because in this game they will get blocked. This will affect the O-rebounds they get, and hurt them offensively in a way they haven't experienced yet. If they can gameplan well for Thabeet they can win, but I don't they can do it, and I think UConn wins this.

2 Memphis vs. 3 Missouri - I am not impressed by Memphis. They lost all their guys, but still had a good year. Unlike Kansas, they did this in the weak C-USA (Kansas won the Big 12). Memphis is a poor 3-point shooting team, and will get nothing against the 22nd ranked 3-point defense. Mizzou doesn't turn it over, and forces quite a few (12th and 8th, respectively). The problem for Memphis is that they ran into a solid defensive team (Mizzou-8th, Memphis-1st), and they struggle scoring (only 157 in effective FG%). Memphis can slow down Mizzou, but Mizzou makes the most of east possession by not turning it over, and have the 18th most efficient offense. It will be close, but Mizzou should take this.

ELITE EIGHT

EAST

1 Pitt vs. 2 Duke - Again, the difference here will be Blair gobbling up offensive rebounds. As of now its well documented how well Pitt rebounds offensively (1st in O-Rebounding percentage), but Duke is 181 in O-Rebounding percentage allowed. Another factor that pushes this game in Pitt's favor is that Duke gets 23% of their points from the stripe (60th in the nation). Thats not a whole lot, but in games like this it matters that Pitt is 50th in the nation in opponent's FTA/FGA. Duke won't get as many points as it would like from the stripe, Blair will rebound all over an overmatched Singler or Lance Thomas, and Pitt will take this game.

SOUTH

1 UNC vs. 3 Syracuse - Two teams with similar styles and similar personell, UNC takes this because of Hansbrough. Yes, last round Griffin couldn't win it for Oklahoma, but Hansbrough wins this because he, along with Davis and Thompson, will gobble up boards on both ends against 'Cuse. Carolina is 8th in O-rebounding percentage and 117th in O-Rebounding percentage allowed. 'Cuse is only 68th in O-rebounding percentage and 289th in O-Rebounding percentage allowed. Yes, Griffin also will rebound like nuts, but the UNC bigs will have help. Lawson-Flynn will be a great battle, but Lawson can hang with Flynn defensively, and Ellington can answer Devendorf shot for shot. Green should take this one over as well as 'Cuse doesn't have an answer for him defensively (Rautins?). UNC should finally topple the mighty Orange.

MIDWEST

4 Wake Forest vs. 3 Kansas - Unfortunately our Deacs' run ends here. Kansas can throw a zone at Wake if need be, and have the 7th best 2-point defense. Wake relies on 2-point buckets and Kansas should be able to slow them down. Kansas is one of the most well rounded teams in the tournament, scoring 26% of their buckets behind the arc, 52.8% of their buckets within the arc, and 21% from the stripe. Wake gets 62% of their points from within the arc, and shoot 54% in there. The issue for the Deacs is that while they are good defensively all over the court, so is Kansas, and Kansas can score from all over the court, while Wake can not.

WEST

1 UConn vs. 3 Missouri - Mizzou will take care of the ball, but rely on buckets in the paint too much to win this game. They shoot 36% from beyond the arc, but like Washington, aren't used to being blocked inside (13th in Block percentage offensively). Thabeet can and will block anyone. DeMarre Carroll is great, but he isn't DeJaun Blair, and can be stopped by Thabeet. Leo Lyons is also a stud, but has the task of beating Jeff Adrien. UConn is much taller than Mizzou, (57th v. 2nd) and more experience (34 v. 175). Mizzou had a good run, but it ends here.

FINAL FOUR

1 Pitt vs. 1 UNC - The two most efficient offensive teams in the nation match up here. UNC's strength defensively is not allowing opponent's to shoot free throws (6th in opponents FTA/FGA). This won't hurt Pitt as only 17% of their points come from the stripe. I don't see Blair dominating Hansbrough on the boards, but he should get his fair share of second chance points. UNC is 117th in O-Rebounding percentage allowed and 8th in O-Rebounding percentage. Pitt's ranks are 1 offensively and 27 defensively. Pitt doesn't turn it over, but doesn't force turnovers and have the 21st ranked 2-point shooting percentage. UNC doesn't turn it over, but doesn't force them either, and has the 54th ranked 2-point defense. Effective FG%: Pitt's is 53.4, UNC's is 52.7. UNC allows opponents to a 47.2 Effective FG%; Pitt's is 46.9. I just think Pitt is the stronger all around team at this juncture, and they take it.

1 UConn vs. 3 Kansas - Thabeet will keep the Jayhawks out of the paint and should be able to stop Aldrich down low. A.J. Price will be able to contain Collins in a battle of great PGs. However, the rest of the lineup tips the Huskies' direction. Kansas gets 21% of their points from the stripe, and UConn only allows opponents to get 14% of their points there. That will hurt the Jayhawks. Also, UConn allows the 4th lowest 2-point FG%, and Kansas shoots 52.4% within the arc, so they will be hurt there as well. That said, Kansas' defense within the arc is also staunch, 7th nationally. I think the difference in this game is Jeff Adrien; Kansas starts three guys 6-3 or shorter, and while Marcus and Markieff Morris are strong, 6-9 players off the bench, they are only freshmen and Adrien should be able to take care of them offensively. The difference between this game and the Wake-Kansas game is taht UConn can shoot over any zone Kansas throws at it (35% from deep) whereas Wake cannot, and Kansas can use a zone to hide their lack of size.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

1 Pitt vs. 1 UConn - This has already happened twice, and you always hear the "don't wanna play the same team three times" adage, but I don't think it matters here. Blair negates anything Thabeet throws at him, and might be the only man in the country who can score on Thabeet in the paint. Levance Fields and A.J. Price are a wash. Biggs and Adrien will battle, with Adrien getting some buckets, but Biggs containing him for the most part. The problem that UConn has with PItt is, who guards Sam Young? They don't have anyone to stop Young. Obviously A.J. Price guards Fields, and the bigs guard each other down low. That leaves 6-3 Austrie and 6-1 Kemba Walker. Neither one matches up well against the 6-6 Young. As you may have noticed, there are no stats here. This is because these teams negate each others stats, as we have seen. Pitt doesn't overpower on the offensive boards against UConn because of Adrien and Thabeet, but UConn doesn't control the lane against Pitt because of DeJuan Blair. I see Young going nuts in this game and capping an under appreciated career with 25 points in an 85-78 win against the Huskies.

East Region vs. Tournament Teams

Will — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 10:00:10 -0000

Breaking down the madness in the East Region...there are a thousand different ways to compare these teams beyond their seeding, and this morning we take a look at each team's record against the other 64 teams in the field.

We know Pittsburgh is the favorite here, and there are some other name teams in this region...and we know the Vols have a long road in front of them as a nine seed. But part of what helped Tennessee's seeding was their non-conference schedule (...or at least that was the way it was supposed to work), as the Vols are very familiar with the competition in the field.

Who are the other teams in this part of the bracket who've matched up well against other teams in the field thus far? We take a quick look at each team against the rest of the tournament teams...

#1 Pittsburgh

9-3 against the field
Wins: UConn (twice - 1), Syracuse (3), Florida State (5), Marquette (6), West Virginia (twice - 6), Siena (9), Akron (13)
Losses: Louisville (1), Villanova (3), West Virginia (6)

#2 Duke

11-6 against the field
Wins: Wake Forest (4), Xavier (4), Florida State (thrice - 5), Purdue (5), Boston College (7), Maryland (thrice - 10), Michigan (10)
Losses: North Carolina (twice - 1), Wake Forest (4), Boston College (7), Clemson (7), Michigan (10)

#3 Villanova

6-6 against the field
Wins: Pittsburgh (1), Syracuse (twice - 3), Marquette (twice - 6), Temple (11)
Losses: Louisville (twice - 1), UConn (1), Marquette (6), West Virginia (6), Texas (7)

#4 Xavier

4-3 against the field
Wins: Memphis (2), Missouri (3), LSU (8), Temple (11)
Losses: Duke (2), Butler (9), Temple (11)

#5 Florida State

6-7 against the field
Wins: North Carolina (1), California (7), Clemson (twice - 7), Maryland (10), Western Kentucky (12)
Losses: Pittsburgh (1), North Carolina (1), Duke (thrice - 2), Wake Forest (4), Boston College (7)

#6 UCLA

7-7 against the field
Wins: Washington (4), California (twice - 7), USC (twice - 10), Arizona (12), Cal State-Northridge (15)
Losses: Washington (4), Arizona State (twice - 6), Texas (7), Michigan (10), USC (10), Arizona (12)

#7 Texas

6-6 against the field
Wins: Oklahoma (2), Villanova (3), UCLA (6), Oklahoma State (8). Texas A&M (9), Wisconsin (12)
Losses: Oklahoma (2), Michigan State (2), Kansas (3), Missouri (3), Oklahoma State (8), Texas A&M (9)

#8 Oklahoma State

4-10 against the field
Wins: Oklahoma (2), Texas (7), Siena (9), Texas A&M (9)
Losses: Oklahoma (twice - 2), Michigan State (2), Kansas (3), Missouri (twice - 3), Gonzaga (4), Washington (4), Texas (7), Texas A&M (9)

#9 Tennessee

4-7 against the field
Wins: Marquette (6), Siena (9), Mississippi State (13), Chattanooga (16)
Losses: Memphis (2), Kansas (3), Gonzaga (twice - 4), LSU (8), Temple (11), Mississippi State (13)

#10 Minnesota

7-8 against the field
Wins: Louisville (1), Illinois (5), Ohio State (8), Wisconsin (twice - 12), Cornell (14), North Dakota State (15)
Losses: Michigan State (thrice - 2), Illinois (5), Purdue (5), Ohio State (8), Michigan (twice - 10)

#11 Virginia Commonwealth

1-1 against the field
Wins: Akron (13)
Losses: Oklahoma (2)

#12 Wisconsin

4-10 against the field
Wins: Illinois (5), Ohio State (8), Michigan (twice - 10)
Losses: UConn (1), Michigan State (2), Illinois (5), Purdue (twice - 5), Marquette (6), Texas (7), Ohio State (8), Minnesota (twice - 10)

#13 Portland State

1-1 against the field
Wins: Gonzaga (4)
Losses: Washington (4)

#14 American

0-2 against the field
Wins: none
Losses: Okahoma (2), Maryland (10)

#15 Binghamton

played no tournament teams

#16 East Tennessee State

1-2 against the field
Wins: Chattanooga (16)
Losses: Temple (11), Morehead State (16)

First of all, we can say that Pitt and Duke are both very impressive - playing in the Big East and the ACC guaranteed you plenty of opportunities to play tourney teams this season (where the SEC suffers), but both schools really made the most of it. Villanova also has a ton of quality wins.

There's a fairly even balance here in seeds 4-7, with Xavier's quality wins matching them up nicely with players from the major conferences. And down at 10, Minnesota has a win against Louisville to help separate out their resume against the Big 10 pack.

Oklahoma State, Tennessee and Wisconsin are all in the same boat - good enough to beat great teams at times, but not consistent enough to do it...consistently. As for the Vols, they'll be facing a team that's just as experienced playing against the big boys as they are.

Sensible upset picks in this bracket go through Portland State at 13, who did beat Gonzaga.

Regardless, using these numbers may just show us what the seedings did already - Pitt and Duke are on their own level, then Villanova...then everyone else.

2009 NCAA Bracket Breakdown: East Region

WakeJake — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 02:03:14 -0000

Predicted Winning Teams in Bold

First Round

(1) Pittsburgh vs (16) East Tennessee State - In this matchup between teams rated 6 and 113 in the Pomeroy ratings, the Panthers should dominate from the opening tip. We all know that a 16 has never beaten a 1 and that's not going to be the case here either.

(8) Oklahoma State vs. (9) Tennessee - Honestly, Tennessee is just not a good basketball team. They are 103rd in FG percentage offense and 223rd in FG percentage defense. Oklahoma State is a bad defensive team, but they make up for it by being solid on offense. The Cowboys are also 25th in the nation in three point percentage and Tennessee does not appear to guard anyone outside the arc.

(5) Florida State vs. (12) Wisconsin - This looks like a promising upset pick here because of the big name in the 12 slot and the yearly occurrence of this upset taking place, but I'm not falling for it. This game may end up with a final score of 28-24 because FSU emphasizes defense and Wisconsin plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation. Bob Ryan is a great coach and this game will come down to the wire, but I think the height of Florida State and the senior leadership of Toney Douglas will lead the Seminoles to victory.

(4) Xavier vs. (13) Portland State - Xavier is a top 50 team on both ends of the floor according to KenPom while Portland State is 200th in defense. I'm all chalk so far and this is not going to be an upset either.

(6) UCLA vs. (11) VCU - VCU is paced by PG Eric Maynor who led the Rams to a tournament win over Duke two years ago. On the other hand, UCLA has been to the Final Four three straight years and still has the leadership of Collison and Shipp from those teams. UCLA is a very solid six seed that I'm sure VCU was disappointed to draw after earning an 11 seed. This may be a popular upset pick too, but I do not think Collison will allow UCLA to get bounced that early.

(3) Villanova vs. (14) American - Not much to see here. I'm proud to be an American, but not that proud.

(7) Texas vs. (10) Minnesota - The emergence of Texas center Dexter Pittman could be a big story in this region. The big fella had a couple huge games in the Big 12 tournament and will look to help A.J. Abrams and Damien James make a run in the NCAA tournament. Tubby Smith did a good job getting the Gophers back to the tournament, but their turnover woes and youth in the paint may stop them from getting a win in the first round.

(2) Duke vs.(15) Binghamton - Tony Kornhesier's alma mater will look to shock the world here, but this disciplined Duke team will not let that happen.

Second Round

(1) Pittsburgh vs. (8) Oklahoma State - If Oklahoma State is hitting their three point shots, they could make this one interesting. However, the beastliness of DeJuan Blair and the vastly underrated Sam Young will carry the Panthers to the Sweet 16.

(5) Florida St. vs. (4) Xavier - As an ACC homer, I think the Noles are hungry and take this one. This is a matchup of the tallest team in the nation and the 21st tallest team in the nation. I do not think Xavier is used to playing this kind of talented height in the Atlantic 10 and All-ACC point guard Toney Douglas will be looking to end his career with a bang.

(6) UCLA vs. (3) Villanova - This is without a doubt one of the premier potential matchups in the second round. UCLA is 3rd in the nation in offensive efficiency and, as I explained earlier, has major tournament experience even though a few of their key players are freshmen. VIllanova has some dynamite guards as always in Reynolds, Stokes and Fisher to go along with Dante Cunningham in the paint. I just have the feeling that Ben Howland will outduel Jay Wright and the Bruins will march to the Sweet 16.

(7) Texas vs. (2) Duke - If you would have told me this was a second round tournament game in November, I would have thought Duke really dropped off. Instead, Texas is the one that had a disappointing season behind an inconsistent A.J. Abrams. This game will likely come down to three point shooting, as Duke loves the outside shot and Abrams is never shy. However, if Texas is disciplined they should be able to take advantage of Duke's inferior height. Pittman, James, Johnson and Atchley have the length and muscle to bother the Blue Devils inside. In the end, I see Abrams' eyes lighting up as the nation pulls for him against Duke and Texas advances. It was about time for me to go out on a limb anyway, right?

Sweet Sixteen

(1) Pittsburgh vs. (5) FSU - Again, this would be a grind-it-out defensive matchup. While the Seminoles would likely make a game of it, they just do not have enough offensive weapons to keep up with Pitt. Blair would have more trouble with Alibi, Reid, Gibson and Singleton than in previous rounds, but Young and Fields pick up the slack and advance.

(6) UCLA vs. (7) Texas - As I have discussed earlier, KenPom loves the Bruins and I love their experience. On the other hand, Texas has the ability to be really good and is still trying to adjust to the loss of D.J. Augustin, as evidenced by their results on the season. I keep telling myself that Texas is a bad pick, but I just cannot resist. Connor Atchely blocks a Collison shot at the buzzer and the Longhorns shock the nation as they play to their potential and advance to the Elite Eight.

Elite Eight

(1) Pittsburgh vs. (7) Texas - The run ends here for Rick Barnes' club. Pitt is too well-balanced and talented for the Longhorns. Levance Fields is a big game player and leads this tough Pitt team to the Final Four.

Final Four Pick - Pittsburgh

Stay tuned for Blogger So Dear's breakdown of the West and Midwest on Wednesday!

Breaking Down the Brackets: East Regional Preview

Denverjhawk — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 19:45:06 -0000

Heading to the East for our afternoon breakdown and tomorrow morning Rockchalk will have the one we're all waiting for in the Midwest breakdown featuring the defending National Champion Kansas Jayhawks. Thought I'd get that in one last time.

East Regional General Info:

Regional Site: Boston MA, TD Banknorth Garden

Conference Tournament Champions: 6

At Large Teams: 10

Power Conference Teams: 10

Mid Majors: 6

Pods: Greensboro NC, Philadelphia PA, Dayton OH, Boise ID

Interesting Facts:

Team breakdown, matchup previews and prediction time after the jump....

Team Capsules

#1 Seed Pittburgh Panthers

Bid: At-Large Big East

Location: Pittsburgh Pennsylvania

Record: 28-4

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 2

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 34

Key Offensive Stat: Off Reb % (1)

Key Defensive Stat: Steal % (26)

Player to Know: Sam Young

The Panthers are big physical and have to be considered one of the favorites. Beating UConn twice during the regular season and putting a formidable and experienced crew on the court every night. The question will be if their typical physical Big East style of play will be allowed to persist come tourney time or if the ref's whistle get's in the way of a potential Final Four run.

#2 Seed Duke Blue Devils

Bid: ACC Champion

Location: Durham, NC

Record: 28-6

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 4

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 17

Key Offensive Stat: Turnover % (19)

Key Defensive Stat: Steal % (30)

Player to Know: Kyle Singler

Coach K once again has a team with expectations behind them and the Duke name on their chest. Jon Sheyer's move to the point guard slot in place of Greg Paulas has propelled this team to a higher level. A more experienced front court and the versatility of Kyle Singler could be huge in this Duke team going further than in years past.

#3 Seed Villanova Wildcats

Bid: At-Large Big East

Location: Philadelphia, PA

Record: 26-7

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 25

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 25

Key Offensive Stat: FT% (30)

Key Defensive Stat: Steals (53)

Player to Know: Scottie Reynolds

A senior led front line and Scottie Reynolds bring a Villanova squad to the tourney that has been somewhat forgotten amongst the Big East giants this year. Jay Wright is a tourney tested coach and the team is tough they could easily make a run at this region coming from out of the shadows a bit.

#4 Seed Xavier Musketeers

Bid: At Large Atlantic 10

Location: Cincinnati, OH

Record: 25-7

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 44

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 18

Key Offensive Stat: FT% (6)

Key Defensive Stat: FG% (11)

Player to Know: BJ Raymond

RockChalk's future alma mater the ever dangerous Xavier Musketeer basketball team. Again I'm sure he can give you a more in depth run through of these guys but they are a team that has expectations of success after the recent years they've seen. However they bring a relatively inexperienced backcourt beyond BJ Raymond to the dance this year and that may be their undoing.

#5 Seed Florida State Seminoles

Bid: At Large ACC

Location: Tallahassee Florida

Record: 25-9

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 95

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 12

Key Offensive Stat: Turnovers (292)

Key Defensive Stat: FG% (18)

Player to Know: Toney Douglas

Toney Douglas is one of the stars in the NCAA this year. If you didn't know him prior to last weekend you surely couldn't have missed him over the conference tourney weekend. This team goes as far at Toney takes them and while they've beaten some strong teams during the year a slump by Douglas could spell the end of the run.

#6 Seed UCLA Bruins

Bid: At Large Pac 10

Location: Los Angeles California

Record: 25-8

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 3

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 37

Key Offensive Stat: FG% (6)

Key Defensive Stat: Turnover% (15)

Player to Know: Darren Collison

One of the most disappointing teams of the 2009 season the Bruins are a big reason the Pac 10 is considered down this year. They do have the tourney experience but they don't have the same level of talent as they did in years past especially defensively. If they can get going on offense they can be dangerous but another Final Four trip might be tough for the Bruins.

#7 Seed Texas Longhorns

Bid: At-Large Big 12

Location: Austin, TX

Record: 22-11

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 46

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 27

Key Offensive Stat: Off Reb% (21)

Key Defensive Stat: FG% (45)

Player to Know: Dexter Pittman

The loss of DJ Augustine hurt more than many thought it would for the Texas Longhorns. Combine that with the struggles of Conner Atchley and the results speak for themselves. AJ Abrams is key to this teams success along with Damian James, but Dexter Pittman the big man in the middle can be the catalyst if he plays the way he's shown capable at times.

#8 Seed Oklahoma State Cowboys

Bid: At Large Big 12

Location: Stillwater, OK

Record: 22-11

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 16

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 73

Key Offensive Stat: Turnovers% (16)

Key Defensive Stat: Reb% (39)

Player to Know: Byron Eaton

Okahoma State has made major strides over the course of the season and Travis Ford has earned a lot of praise for his handling of this team. Byron Eaton is absolutely critical to their success and if he struggles their done. Combine that with a lack of overall depth creates some potential problems for the Cowboys. If their at full strength they can be dangerous but they are definitely one step away from trouble.

#9 Seed Tennessee Volunteers

Bid: At Large SEC

Location: Knoxville, TN

Record: 21-12

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 17

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 71

Key Offensive Stat: 2pt FG% (26)

Key Defensive Stat: Reb% (68)

Player to Know: Wayne Chism

Tennessee started out with high hopes and stumbled through their season in the lackluster SEC. Replacing four guards from last year's #2 seeded Vols team has proven far more difficult than expected as has the leadership that went with it. If they're going to be succuessful it's going to require a strong effort on the defensive end and as difficult as it is to see this team go far it isn't out of the question as they do have the potential to be dangerous.

#10 Seed Minnesota Golden Gophers

Bid: At-Large Big 10

Location: Minneapolis, MN

Record: 22-10

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 88

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 20

Key Offensive Stat: Off Reb% (36)

Key Defensive Stat: Block % (1)

Player to Know: Lawrence Westbrook

Another Big 10 bubble team that benefits from the falloff in the SEC. The Gophers are just like any other Big 10 team and prefer a slowdown slugfest in terms of style of play. This gopher team is young but minus Lawrence Westbrook they struggle offensively. At the right pace their defense could get a win but it's not going to be pretty.

#11 Seed Virginia Commonwealth Rams

Bid: CAA Champion

Location: Richmond, VA

Record: 24-9

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 75

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 48

Key Offensive Stat: Turnover % (67)

Key Defensive Stat: Opp FG% (29)

Player to Know: Eric Maynor

Virginia Commonwealth returns to the tournament as a very dangerous team. They will have the best chance of success when Maynor is knocking down threes but Larry Sanders is just as important especially when it comes to VCU's tendency to lose the rebounding battle.

#12 Seed Wisconsin Badgers

Bid: At Large Big 10

Location: Madison, Wisconsin

Record: 19-12

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 24

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 60

Key Offensive Stat: Turnover% (6)

Key Defensive Stat: Off Reb% (24)

Player to Know: Marcus Landry

Wisconsin squeeked into this one under the wire. Losing 6 straight at one point in the season it wasn't out of the question that the Badgers wouldn't be here. They are a very disciplined and well coached team as always though and you never know what can happen in the tourney. Once again the question is, how good is the Big 10?

#13 Seed Portland State Vikings

Bid: Big Sky Champion

Location: Portland Oregon

Record: 23-9

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 79

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 200

Key Offensive Stat: FG% (31)

Key Defensive Stat: Turnover (96)

Player to Know: Jeremiah Dominguez

Portland State reaches the tourney as the Big Sky Champs in 2009. They are very effective from long range boasting 4 solid long range shooters. Rebounding is where they struggle though and against a big physical front line they likely find themselves overmatched.

#14 Seed American U Eagles

Bid: Patriot League Champion

Location: Washington DC

Record: 24-7

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 117

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 124

Key Offensive Stat: FG% (22)

Key Defensive Stat: Opp FG% (24)

Player to Know: Brian Gilmore

5 senior starters return on a team that nearly upset the #2 seed Tennesse Volunteers last year. They are a slow it down pace type a team however and if they get caught in a shootout they won't have the firepower to keep up with the big boys. Long possessions and knock down their threes and American could be in the mix again though.

#15 Seed Binghampton Bearcats

Bid: American East Champion

Location: Binghampton, NY

Record: 23-8

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 178

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 159

Key Offensive Stat: FT% (41)

Key Defensive Stat: Opp FG% (51)

Player to Know: DJ Rivera

Bighamton brings a very undersized team to the 2009 dance. That translates to little or no inside scoring and combine that with a horrendous track record of taking care of the ball and you don't have a recipe for tournament success. There best chance at a win is to force a hectic pace, somehow force a large number of turnovers as well and knock down the outside shot. Isn't that how most upsets happen though?

#16 East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Bid: Atlantic Sun Champion

Location: Jackson City, TN

Record: 23-10

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 106

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 149

Key Offensive Stat: Turnover% (77)

Key Defensive Stat: Block% (70)

Player to Know: Kevin Tiggs

The Buccaneers get the unfortunate task of taking a frail front line into battle with Dejuan Blair. They can be up tempo, hastle you on defense and if they're lucky get out and run. Truthfully, no offense but why bother.

The Matchups

#1 Pittsburgh vs.ETSU

What To Watch: It's a #1 vs a #16 so I'm curious to see how the physical play of the Panthers is handled by the officials. There has been a lot of talk about how Big East officials really allow the big bodies to bang around and it may be a detriment when they get in the tourney with other officials. Maybe we get some hints in this one.

Pitt Will Win If: Need you ask??

ETSU Will Win If: Miracle on hardwood

Player to Watch: Sam Young struggled in the Big East tourney loss, watch to see if he get's back on track and comfortable once again.

#8 Oklahoma State vs. #9 Tennessee

What To Watch: Two undersized teams that aren't the most physically imposing underneath. Who does the most effective job on the glass will go a long way toward determining the winner.

OSU Will Win If: Quite simply OSU needs a solid showing from Byron Eaton and his handling of the Vols defensive pressure will be important.

Tennessee Will Win If:There guards can limit mistakes and minimize the impact that the OSU guards have on the game. Tennessee's guards have struggled all year on both end of the court so they will need to be good enough at least in order to win.

Player to Watch: James Anderson is an exciting player for the Cowboys and one of the few that has the ability to create offense. He's an exciting player to watch and can be a difference maker in any game.

#5 Florida State vs. #12 Wisconsin

What To Watch: How well Toney Douglas manages an extremely disciplined and smart opponent. How well Wisconsin manages to impose their style of play and control Douglas will determine if they can pull and upset here and I think they've got a shot.

FSU Will Win If: Plain and simple if this thing goes up tempo and Toney Douglas is on.

Wisconsin Will Win If: They slow Douglas there will be little support ready to pick up the slack.

Player to Watch:Toney Douglas...this is just one of those games where so much hinges on how well one player is able to perform or the other team is able to contain him.

#4 Xavier vs. #13 Portland State

What To Watch: Guard play is something Xavier has struggled with on occasion and how effective they are will be a good indication as to how this one goes. That said it's hard to believe that even that alone is enough although Portland State does have some talent, it probably isn't enough.

Xavier Will Win If: There frontcourt continues to provide the rebounding and support they have throughout the season. A solid 5 man rotation up front has been fairly consistent up front and look for that to continue.

Portland State Will Win If: Portland State has some exciting offensive players and if they're hot and Xavier is cold it could happen. However Xavier has more depth and more options to turn to so it could be tough.

Player to Watch: Derrick Brown has developed into more than just an inside scorer so he's a more complete player and a fun inside guy to watch.

#6 UCLA vs. #11 VCU

What To Watch: VCU has been a surprise in the past but that won't be the case this year. Still though they do have the horses to pull the upset and UCLA isn't nearly the presence defensively they have been in years past. Keep an eye on how well UCLA does on the interior in terms of rebounding and keeping out of foul trouble, both will be key to them avoiding the VCU upset bug.

UCLA Will Win If: Alfred Aboyo provides a steadying influence on the interior. He's stepped up his play this year assuming a much more active role but if he remains inconsistent offensively it could spell trouble.

VCU Will Win If: Eric Maynor is knocking down shots from the outside and Larry Sanders get's room to work on the interior. The two are tied closely to eachother and if it's working look for an upset in this one.

Player to Watch: Eric Maynor for VCU holds the keys to the upset machine.

#3 Villanova vs. #14 American

What To Watch: Your getting two very experienced teams in this one and whichever group of guards remain the most poised will be at a big advantage. Villanova comes in battle tested but it's not out of the question that a senior laden American team could pull a shocker.

Villanova Will Win If: Dante Cunningham and Scottie Reynolds are up to the task it will be hard for American to hang with the forgotten team from the Big East.

American Will Win If: They explode from behind the arc. They've got 4 players capable of knocking down shots and with the lack of size they'll need to use the three pointer as the great equalizer.

Player to Watch: Dante Cunningham is the leading scorer and rebounder for Villanova and a legit talent on the interior. He'll be key to this game and any run the Villanova hopes to make in the tourney.

#7 Texas vs. #10 Minnesota

What To Watch: Neither Texas or Minnesota is particularly dangerous on offense although Texas probably has the potential to be moreso. Minnesota's defense on the other hand is certainly a strongsuit so ultimately I think we're watching to see what Texas team shows up.

Texas Will Win If: AJ Abrams can get his points and Dexter Pittman continues his recent trend of controlling the interior both offensively and defensively.

Minnesota Will Win If: They can stop the primary Texas weapons, keep it low scoring and make Texas find some alternatives in their offense.

Player to Watch: Dexter Pittman had a monster Big 12 tourney and he's really coming into his own as an inside player. Others might draw more media attention but Pittman is a big key for the Longhorns.

#2 Duke vs. #15 Binghamton

What To Watch: Binghamton is at a significant disadvantage in terms of size and offense in this one. It will take a Duke collapse or an out of body experience for Binghamton in order to see an upset.

Duke Will Win If: This is a fairly easy first round matchup for Duke. Play solid defense and run your offense like they did in the ACC Tourney and they should handle this one with relative ease.

Binghamton Will Win If: Duke falls bake into bad habits and Binghamton finds a way to shoot a heck of a lot better than there sub 30% from 3pt range average.

Player to Watch: Jon Sheyer's move to point guard has been the catalyst for a resurgance on the offensive end for the Blue Devils. His continued leadership will be crucial for a run this March.

RCT Predictions

Most LIkely to Pull an Upset: VCU (11-Seed)

Final Four Sleeper: Villanova (3 Seed)

Final Four Favorite: Pittsburgh (1-seed)

Best Team No One Knows About: American (14-Seed)

Most Underseeded Team: WIsconsin (12-Seed)

Most Overseeded Team: Xavier (4-Seed)