SB Nation - Florida Gators

Kentucky Basketball: Ken Pomeroy's Analysis

Truzenzuzex — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:13:09 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

We'll get there, guys. Just keep doing what you are doing.

Yesterday, Ken Pomeroy of Kenpom.com (not the same guy as our Ken Pomeroy here on A Sea of Blue) came out with his Pythagorean projections of records. What this post will do is examine his projections (which, by the way, change as the season goes on to reflect improvement or regression of teams through their Pythagorean Winning Percentage. We'll get to all that in a few minutes.

Pomeroy's projections are always pretty good, but they are far from flawless. I don't track his performance over the years (you have to pay attention at the very beginning so you can compare the end) and I haven't done that, but I know historically they are pretty accurate taken as a whole.

Fortunately for the Kentucky Wildcats this year, they are very young, which makes them look worse early as the freshmen learn the college game. As this Wildcat team learns to play good defense, learns the Calipari system, and gets to better understand their roles on the team and how to best maximize their strengths and minimize their weakness, we can expect these stats to have a greater than normal margin for error.

Pomeroy really doesn't factor youth in to his equation (because there is just no real way to do so other than an arbitrary bugger factor), but it really makes a difference when you are talking about a group as talented as the Wildcats are. In fact, there has arguably been no group in college basketball this young and this talented since the Fab Five, and that means that Pomeroy's system has never come up against a scenario this potentially volatile. But let's leave that for now, and look at his projections.

Follow me over the jump.

First, let's examine a reproduction of Ken's projections as of now. I have highlighted the losses for easier reading:

2010 Schedule
(Game Plan)
Date	Opponent	Result		Prob.	Location	Record	Conf
Fri Nov 13	(261) Morehead St.	W, 75-59	73		Home	1-0
Mon Nov 16	(174) Miami OH	W, 72-70	63		Home	2-0
Thu Nov 19	(173) Sam Houston St.	W, 102-92	83		Home	3-0
Sat Nov 21	(211) Rider	W, 92-63	76		Home	4-0
Tue Nov 24	(212) Cleveland St.	W, 73-49	70		Neutral	5-0
Wed Nov 25	(114) Stanford	W, 73-65	65	OT	Neutral	6-0
Mon Nov 30	(334) NC Asheville	W, 94-57	70		Semi-Home	7-0
Sat Dec 5	(44) North Carolina	W, 68-66	74		Home	8-0
Wed Dec 9	(33) Connecticut	W, 64-61	69		Neutral	9-0
Sat Dec 12	(158) Indiana	W, 90-73	68		Away	10-0
Sat Dec 19	(202) Austin Peay	W, 80-61	68	96%	Home
Mon Dec 21	(145) Drexel	W, 65-52	65	92%	Home
Wed Dec 23	(95) Long Beach St.	W, 82-71	72	84%	Home
Tue Dec 29	(259) Hartford	W, 81-57	64	98%	Home
Sat Jan 2	(105) Louisville	W, 79-67	71	87%	Home
Sat Jan 9	(189) Georgia	W, 77-59	66	95%	Home
Tue Jan 12	(34) Florida	L, 70-66	68	30%	Away
Sat Jan 16	(132) Auburn	W, 74-68	72	73%	Away
Sat Jan 23	(232) Arkansas	W, 88-64	70	97%	Home
Tue Jan 26	(92) South Carolina	W, 77-75	75	58%	Away
Sat Jan 30	(63) Vanderbilt	W, 79-72	71	76%	Home
Tue Feb 2	(25) Mississippi	W, 75-74	72	54%	Home
Sat Feb 6	(113) Louisiana St.	W, 67-63	63	67%	Away
Tue Feb 9	(80) Alabama	W, 74-66	66	80%	Home
Sat Feb 13	(9) Tennessee	L, 77-72	71	34%	Home
Tue Feb 16	(14) Mississippi St.	L, 78-68	69	16%	Away
Sat Feb 20	(63) Vanderbilt	L, 76-75	71	46%	Away
Thu Feb 25	(92) South Carolina	W, 82-71	75	84%	Home
Sat Feb 27	(9) Tennessee	L, 81-68	71	12%	Away
Wed Mar 3	(189) Georgia	W, 73-63	66	84%	Away
Sun Mar 7	(34) Florida	W, 69-67	68	61%	Home
	Projected record:					24-7	10-6
	Chance of unbeaten record:					0.00%	0.00%
	Chance of winless record:						0.00%
Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of
winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions.
Home games played at Rupp Arena (23,000, 2nd largest in D-I)
Games against opponents yet to be determined are not included in the upcoming schedule.

Trust me, I can feel the gnashing of teeth out there right now. "Whad'ya mean we're gonna lose seven games! This guy is clueless! Tennessee is going to beat us twice, and we only have a 30% chance of taking down the Florida Gators in Gainesville? What a crock!"

Relax, it isn't a crock. The data at this point is relatively sparse, and a couple of games can make a huge change. This is typical of how these calculations look early in the season, so just chill and please don't beat on Ken Pomeroy for his effrontery -- this is a calculation that gets better as time goes on, and these numbers will change, most likely for the better (well, I certainly hope so, anyway!).

To explain why this looks the way it does, keep in mind that Pomeroy's system currently ranks the Wildcats at #41. Now, nobody believes that UK is only the 41st best team in the country right now -- all you have to do is have a look at the polls. Statistical systems cannot measure everything, and one thing that cannot be accounted for in any way is potential, which human systems can account for. Also realize that the more data statistical systems accumulate, the more accurate they are. Right now, only about 33% of the games have been played, so keep in mind that the data at this point is really sparse.

Why are the 'Cats so low right now? Take a look at this graph, brought to you by the magic of Google Fusion (note - clicking on the bar will bring up the value):

What I have done here is taken the top twenty teams from kenpom.com, including their offensive and defensive efficiencies and their strength of schedule, and appended Kentucky's numbers onto the end of that group. To make SOS graph better, I have multiplied it by 100, but relatively speaking, it is still the same thing.

So how does UK grade out? The fundamental basis for Ken Pomeroy's analysis, in the end, is the difference between offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. Remember that for DE, lower is better, and it is represented by the red line, while OE is the blue line. The orange line is the difference between the two.

You may not quite be able to see it, but UK's DE is the worst of this lot, which is why they are not a top 25 team. The OE is competitive, but it also toward the low end of the teams in this list.

The orange line tells the tale. The margin between UK's OE and DE is much lower than the top clubs, hence our relative position in Pomeroy's system. To be honest, our OE is good enough for a top 20 team, no question -- even a top 10. But the DE is a big problem. Currently, UK is ranked 65th in defensive efficiency. That's not a good number at all.

The green line represents strength of schedule, with larger being better. You will note that UK's SOS is better than the Kansas Jayhawks or Syracuse Orange, but is much weaker than the Texas Longhorns or Duke Blue Devils. To make things worse, UK has not been able to defeat these weak opponents by a wide margin, hence our current place in Pomeroy's hierarchy.

There is no doubt whatever that Kentucky will move up this list fairly rapidly, particularly by the time we get to conference play, and as teams like Kansas, Missouri and Memphis start to play tougher squads. Kentucky has only one more daunting game in the non-conference season, the annual tilt with the Louisville Cardinals. If the 'Cats can start playing better defense and blowing out opponents, you will see them move up the Pomeroy rankings fairly quickly.

Daily Links - Big Win Leftovers

Sean Keeley — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 19:42:14 -0000

Leftover thoughts from Syracuse's big win over Florida | Orange Basketball Blog - syracuse.com
Andy Rautins - "We’re a confident team. But we still go out every game like we have something to prove. Rankings mean nothing. We’re a very humble team. And we’re hungry. We’re hungry for every win."

Basketball Prospectus | Unfiltered
I’m hearing a lot about how good the sassy new-look larger-player Syracuse defense is this season. The numbers from the Orangemen’s 9-0 start are indeed quite gaudy (the ‘Cuse has allowed opponents to score just 0.82 points per trip), and after last night’s 85-73 win over Florida in Tampa, Pete Thamel proclaimed this D the best he’s seen from his alma mater in the last 15 years.

Pac-10, Syracuse Top College Basketball Christmas Naughty or Nice List - Blodic.us
The Big East coaches picked the Orange to finish sixth in the league. At this rate, the team that Bob Knight called the most impressive in the country might not finish worse than sixth in the country. Iowa State transfer Wesley Johnson is a legitimate Player of the Year candidate.

Syracuse University football team receives academic honor | Orange Football Blog - syracuse.com
The Syracuse University football team is one of 41 to earn the 2009 American Football Coaches Association Academic Achievement Honorable Mention Award, marking the 18th time the Orange has been honored.

Syracuse University Athletics - SU Makes ESPN The Magazine's List Of The Year's Top Sports Stories
Syracuse is featured twice on ESPN The Magazine’s list of the top 100 sports stories of 2009. The list appears in the Dec. 14 issue and includes the men’s basketball team’s classic six-overtime BIG EAST Tournament victory against Connecticut (No. 29), as well as Kenny Nims’ game-tying goal with 4.5 seconds left versus Cornell in the NCAA men’s lacrosse national championship game (No. 90).

Ernie Davis Heisman 1959 Syracuse Championship Ring - eBay (item 220525056478 end time Dec-17-09 11:22:17 PST)
A Syracuse University 1959 National Championship Ring Salesman Sample for Ernie Davis is up for auction.

Boneyardpin - War Otto Pins
Get your very own War Otto pin.

Facebook | "Orange out" the Syracuse vs. Villanova game
Villanova beat us twice last year, including a game in the Dome. lets ORANGE OUT the dome and show the world the best fans in college basketball wear orange!

Earn a chance to win Bulldogs tickets - Sports - Daily Review
In what was originally shaping up as an already exciting Elmira Bulldogs season opener has just taken a even more sudden twist. A last minute addition to the game roster for the visiting Hudson Valley Hype is former Syracuse University star player Louie McCroskey.

Casual Communication: Where Amazing Doesn't Happen - Casual Hoya
You stay classy, Hoya fans..."For players, my favorite was for Syracuse guard Eric Devendorf, in light of his assault charges. It was a simple "You hit wo-men" (clap, clap, clap clap clap). "

Bearcats Betrayed

GrantC — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 18:27:02 -0000

Although anyone with at least one wobbly glass eye could have seen this coming from a mile away, Univ of Cincinnati football head coach Brian Kelly has left the upstart program he created for greener pastures (or at least a lot of green) in South Bend. Kelly had a brief, albeit wildly successful, run in the Natti where he helped take a team that was mediocre in a non-BCS conference and turn them into a near national title contender.

But his team is P-O'd.

And not the, "Oh well we understand the opportunity" kind of semi-bothered - I mean there were definitely some serious "M-Fer" bombs dropped behind closed doors. Heck in front of the media they even claimed he had nothing to do with their success and that they were going to win in the bowl game literally in spite of him. YIKES - doesnt look like they'll be honoring him with a plaque on a bench in the locker room anytime soon.

From this angle he looks a lot like Charlie Weiss...

Having been at Miami when we finished the 2000 season in 2nd place and knew we were on the verge of getting back to the title game, only to see Butch Davis flee for the NFL just before signing day, I know the feeling all too well (side note: I happened to be in the UM quad selling ESPN magazine subscriptions for charity that day, so I guess that made me the sports expert that the local news wanted to interview on the subject - so I provided a high quality, lengthy answer questioning his decision and the only clip that made the evening news was me saying 'Cleveland?!?! - UGH!'... so I know how Charlie feels on that whole taken out of context thing). And I don't mind the players wanting to win out of spite and feeling like they were the reason they won - and if those guys are as good as that 2000 Canes team then they'll go out next year and win a national championship while some bozo offensive coordinator roams the sidelines pretending to coach (ahem, Larry Coker) - unfortunately for all of the Bearcat football fans (or should i say "both of them"), I dont think this team is quite as deep as The U and may be en route to a serious beat down at the hands of Urban & Timmy, who surely want to end their romance on a high note in the Sugar Bowl, and probably a quick fade back into college football oblivion. So while just starting to come out of our own dark era since the departure of Butch (and his players), it pains me to tell the UC fans that Kelly probably was the reason that they were any good and that while he seems like an A*hole, you'll be wishing you had him back in no time... Hey, at least the basketball team is back to looking like they belong in the Top 25 - onward to March Madness!

Poll

How do like the Bearcats chances against the Gators?

Syracuse vs. Florida A Lesson In Bodily Function

Sean Keeley — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 18:22:06 -0000

For Florida players, you have to imagine that the challenge of going up against Syracuse's talent was a daunting one. Especially once you stepped on the court and saw just how imposing and powerful Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku truly are. It's the kind of thing that would figuratively make one poop their pants. Or perhaps, literally...

That's a curious stain in an even more curious place on the backside of Florida's Dan Werner. It could be shadow, I suppose. Then again...

Yeah...I'm pretty sure he pooped his pants.

Alas, Florida wasn't the only team on hand last night attempting to evacuate the body in moments of desperation. Not even living legends are immune to the urges of man. Like, say, having a good pick.

The folks on the Kentucky board swear Jimmy takes a taste but after reviewing the footage I can conclusively say that Jimmy does not, I repeat, DOES NOT sample his own goods. But he does save that hand and whatever might be on it for usage later on...

It's no Stinkpalm, but it's close.

H/T: actioncuse

SEC Splits Invitational with Big East

Year2 — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 17:00:08 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Mississippi State's Romero Osby dunks over the DePaul defense during the second half. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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LAST NIGHT

Mississippi State thumped DePaul 76-45 in the first of two SEC/Big East Invitational games in Tampa. Five different Bulldogs went into double digits, led by Ravern Johnson's 14. Jarvis Varnado had 12 points, 14 boards, and a pair of blocks for the Starkville contingent. MSU held DePaul to a miserable 28% shooting night, including just 18% in the first half. It was a nice and easy win and all, but DePaul did go winless in Big East play last year.

In the second half of the double header, No. 11 Florida made a nice effort of it but fell to No. 6 Syracuse 85-73. Kenny Boynton had 20 points and seven assists to lead the Gators, and Chandler Parsons had 19 off the bench. The Gators' defense, which has otherwise been great this year, could not come through as the Orange scored easily the most of anyone against UF this season and shot 52.5% from the field. Syracuse led comfortably for most of the game, but Florida did make a run to take the lead with about 10 minutes to go. From there though, the Orange pulled away.

That means the SEC/Big East Invitational ended with a 2-2 tie. The conferences split the match ups of ranked teams, with Kentucky knocking off UConn and Syracuse beating Florida. The mismatches went as expected, with St. Johns taking care of Georgia and Mississippi State blowing out DePaul.

Dick Weiss Was Right: Syracuse 85, Florida 73

Sean Keeley — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:56:52 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

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Dick "Hoops" Weiss was voted Syracuse the No. 1 team in the country for three week's running. Me thinks he might be on to something. The Orange withstood a three-point rally from the Gators and put forth an effort that reaffirmed everything we were hoping as No. 7 Syracuse beat No. 10 Florida 85-73. (boxscore)

Rick Jackson recorded 21 points and 11 rebounds, and Wesley Johnson added 17 and 10, as No. 7 Syracuse handled the 10th-ranked Florida Gators, 85-73, at St. Pete Times Forum.

Neither team was ranked entering the season but both were unbeaten coming into the game. Only Syracuse (9-0) left with a perfect mark, though, thanks to a 52.5 percent shooting effort and a 43-31 rebounding advantage.

Andy Rautins scored 16 points, while Kris Joseph chipped in 12 points and 10 boards for the Orange, who have won every game this season by double digits.

First of all, it's been a while since we've been able to root for a truly dominant team in football or basketball. It feels...strange. In a good way, mind you. But, now that we know for sure that the Orange truly can win every single game they play, it's a very different feeling.

Second, Florida has terrible fans. Here's what's going to happen...people who watched the game last night are going to say Syracuse didn't really have to play in front of a hostile crowd because there were so many SU fans there. You know why so many SU fans stood out last night? Cause there's was no one else there! Upper deck? Empty. Mezzanine? Spotty. If not for Syracuse fans traveling 3,000 miles that place would have been a graveyard. Florida fans apparantly couldn't make the two hour drive to watch their top-ten team play another top-ten team. It's not SU's fault it has good fans, so I don't want to hear it...got it, Katz?

Third, and here's the part that should scare the rest of the country...Wes Johnson had a so-so game The anointed savior and cult leader who has been destined since birth to lead us to glory had an everyman kind of evening. And we still beat the No. 10 team in the nation by double-digits. Yeah he scored 17 and grabbed 10 boards but he really didn't get rolling until the 2nd half. Florida had many an opportunity to run away from Cuse and couldn't do it. Yikes to everyone.

Fourth...Rick Jackson, ladies and gentlemen. 21 points and 11 rebounds. Welcome to the bigtime, Rickles. And for SU fans, we can add Rick to the list of players more than happy to step up and be a leader for us when needed.

Fifth, speaking of leaders...Andy Rautins! The cajones on Andy when he hit the three in the 2nd half to kill Florida's rally. He immediately turned to his teammates, started up a "let's do this" mantra and did what we've come to expect of him.

Seventh, want to know what the "official" rotation is going to look like? Now you do. Boeheim played seven guys (Jackson, Onuaku, Johnson, Rautins, Triche, Scoop & Joseph). That's it. Mookie, deal with it or do not.

Eighth, Chandler Parsons looks like an anime character.

Ninth, "I think, just on what I’ve seen of Syracuse, they are capable of winning the national championship. I think Bobby Knight made a comment (Wednesday) night that he thought they were the best team in the country. I haven’t seen everybody play so I can’t comment on that. But I would be hard-pressed to say there were three or four teams better than them. They can beat you in a lot of ways." - Billy Donovan

The Orange improve to 9-0, should grab a couple more first-place votes and could move up a spot or two in the next rankings. It's official, everyone. The realz, we haz them. Until someone shows me otherwise, we're the best team in the nation as far as I'm concerned. Hells yeah I'm biased...but I'm pretty sure Dick Weiss and I are right.

Links and vids after the jump.

FUN IN THE SUN: Syracuse improves to 9-0 after beating No. 10 Florida...Tyler Dunne
Jackson defies gameplan, scores career-high 21 points...Tyler Dunne
Orange hurts Florida on the backboards...Donna Ditota
Syracuse makes big plays to defeat Florida and stay unbeaten...Donna Ditota
Donovan has experience with Triche family...Bud Poliquin
SU-Florida Recap...Brent Axe
Syracuse basketball dumps Florida, stays unbeaten...Donna Ditota
Gator-Skinned: Syracuse-Florida Observations...Three Idiots on Sports
Florida Gets RickRolled, Orange Comes Through In Tight Spots...CuseOrange
Roll: This Game Should Scare Out Future Opponents...Cuse Country
A Win over Florida...OrangeHoops
Donovan: Orange Title Contenders...Orange Fizz
Syracuse big men bully Florida Gators...Adam Beasley, Miami Herald

Game Highlights

Some live action (and Cuse fan head nods) from the game

The 'Cuse is loose!

SFBE.NF — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:30:40 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

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Remember when Syracuse, sans a Jonny Flynn, Paul Harris and Eric Devendorf, began their season with that ugly loss to LeMoyne? The LeMoyne Dolphins, a DII school located just minutes from Syracuse, a city far away from any salt water, and an area uninhabitable by Dolphins.

That debacle was a long time ago. Today Syracuse is making a case for being the top team in the country after last night's 85-73 win over Florida, in which Boeheim's boys were in control of from start to finish. They now sit at 9-0 and look tougher than at least a few of the six teams currently ranked ahead of them.

Wesley Johnson is an absolute stud, one of the few players in the college game who can iso his man and knock down the 15 foot jumper....whenever the hell his team needs a bucket. He finished with 17 and 10 and is slowly garnering more and more attention for not only the Big East, but national POY consideration.

As for Florida, let applaud their effort up to this point of the season. Already this team has overachieved, and boasts a nice duo of Kenny Boynton and Chandler Parsons. But you can't have Alex Tyus flopping around looking like Mikki Moore if you want to be taken seriously. Billy Donovan has a weak frontcourt, and will have to rely on quick hits and high schooting percentages if he expects to be a top 15 mainstay.

The Shotgun/Throwdown: Friday (12/11/09) Edition

WVUIE97 — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 15:37:43 -0000

Welcome, By-Godders, to the Shotgun/Throwdown, WVU's best place for sports links, information and a few daily distractions. Today we're being brought to you by Rolling Rock Green Light.

I apologize for the delay, but sometimes there is work to do. Everybody knows the big story today is Kelly leaving Cinci. Some are glad, some aren't. That's their mess, I'm not gonna worry about it. Anyway, stay warm, try to catch the Mountaineer men on Saturday (they're off until next Saturday) and support the women on Sunday if you're in Morgantown. Have a great weekend. I'm always open for suggestions and requests. Let's GOOOOOOOOO...

What You May Have Missed:

Gold and Blue Report for Friday - WVMETRONEWS.COM

Football: West Virginia Recognized by AFCA - MSNsportsNET.Com

Academic Success - MSNsportsNET.Com

Irish eyes are smiling at Kelly hire - SI.com

News of Note:

Gator Bowl 'fortunate' to host Bowden farewell - Charleston Daily Mail

The Will to Succeed - MSNsportsNET.Com

Jonnie West on his own path - Times West Virginian
Hertzel Column

WVU's Kevin Jones - WVIllustrated.com

What's On Tap:

Georgetown vs. Washington - SI.com
2pm on Saturday. I believe on Fox Sports Net.

Coppin State vs. West Virginia - SI.com
7 pm on Saturday from the Coliseum. Coverage on ESPN 360 and MASN. I'm not sure but other regional sports channels, such as Fox Sports Pitt may carry it.

St Francis (NY) vs. Syracuse - SI.com
Sunday at 1pm.

Villanova vs. Temple - SI.com
Sunday at 3pm.

Cincinnati vs. Xavier - SI.com
Sunday at 7pm on ESPNU.

Around the League (and Beyond):

Cincinnati Bearcat players among last to know Brian Kelly's decision - Cincinnati Enquirer

Cincinnati sells out Sugar Bowl allotment - ESPN

Good Riddance - Protect R Turf
Somebody's happy he left.

Cincinnati takes Miami's best shot - Cincinnati Enquirer
"The No. 19-ranked Bearcats led most of the way Thursday night, but still had to hold on to beat Miami 63-59."

Pitt forwards playing outside comfort zone - PPG

Syracuse basketball dumps Florida, stays unbeaten - syracuse.com

Rutgers wide receiver Tim Brown does not practice, status for St. Petersburg Bowl uncertain - Star Ledger

Strong to handle U of L's defense himself - Courier-Journal

Losing Gilchrist creates vacuum for Bulls - Tampa Tribune

Jones, Trickett to interview today for Herd post - Charleston Daily Mail

Video of Interest:

Thanks, as always, to WVIllustrated.com.

Video of (Dis)Interest:

This is awesome!!!!!!!

Santa's Helpers Gallery of the Week:

via coedmagazine.files.wordpress.com

Miss Throwdown:

Today's Miss Throwdown is a gorgeous native of Philly. Please make welcome, Vanessa Veasley.

via i42.tinypic.com

Rolling Rock Green Light image via geekrentalsandbox.com

College Hoops Go-Round: December 11

Chris Dobbertean — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:14:52 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Syracuse's Rick Jackson (00) celebrates with teammate Wes Johnson (4) were the stars of the Orange's 85-73 win over Florida Thursday, Dec. 10, 2009, in Tampa. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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Night two of the SEC/Big East Invitational was the main action on a quiet Thursday night. The two leagues split the doubleheader in Tampa, which means there are no bragging rights this year, thanks to a 2-2 overall series mark.

DePaul was no match for Mississippi State in game one, falling 76-45. As I mentioned at SB Nation, it was one of the quietest crowds I've ever seen for a neutral site game.
The crowd was no issue in game two, as plenty of Orange and Gator fans filled the lower tier of the building formerly known as the Ice Palace. They got to see No. 10 Florida give No. 7 Syracuse a fight before falling, 85-73. Rick Jackson and Wes Johnson both had double-doubles for the Orange, while Kenny Boynton had 20 points and 7 assists for the Gators, with Chandler Parsons adding 19.

In other Thursday night action

No. 12 Michigan State blasted Oakland, 88-57, thanks to 19 points and 12 boards from Draymond Green.
No. 19 Cincinnati held off local rivals Miami, 63-59.
Rhode Island knocked off Northeastern, 79-76.
Western Carolina won again, as they knocked off Campbell, 66-59.
Colorado was pounded by Colorado State in Fort Collins, 77-62.
Montana came back to win on the road at Loyola Marymount, 82-73.

Friday is a good night to do your holiday shopping (like I will) as there isn't much available to a national audience.

The only game available nationally via Full Court is Iowa at Iowa State (8 p.m. ET). The Hawkeyes and Cyclones are playing for second (at best) in the Hawkeye State, as both have already lost to UNI.

The big event of the night is the Sun Belt Invitational in Nashville, where two Sun Belt teams face SEC opponents. Unfortunately, this showcase is only on regional television in parts of the Southeast.

No. 9 Tennessee vs. Middle Tennessee (CSS, 7)
Vanderbilt vs. Western Kentucky (CSS, 9:30)

For a full list of televised games, including contests that are only going to be televised regionally (including Old Dominion at Dayton), visit Matt Sarz' College Sports on TV site.

Florida State's December Could Help for Years to Come

FSUncensored — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

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[Multiple Tomahawk Nation authors contributed to this article]

[Lunch Update: FSU is close to landing DT Kenneth Kirksey from Daytona Beach. Kirksey is 6'1" 290 and well put together (not obese). The 'Noles most desperate need is defensive line and while Kirksey isn't a stud at this point, he is another badly needed body.]

Many thought it could be disastrous. What would happen if Bowden retired? What would the media's reaction be? How would recruits handle the news. As it turned out, Bowden's retirement kicked off what has to be Florida State's best week of the decade.

Most of the national media didn't rip Florida State for its handling of Bowden's "retirement." Thanks to Tiger Woods, Notre Dame, and ESPN's relationship with the SEC, it didn't anywhere near the coverage that many expected it to receive. Of particular importance for FSU was winning over the ESPN TV crew of Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Jessie Palmer, and Brent Musberger. Those four are the most important as they are the most frequently seen college football commentators. They make the public's opinion.

It's very difficult for a college football team to make news during this dead period unless they are playing for their conference championship game or making the other kind of news (Rocky Top anyone?). Florida State though, has managed to make a ton of positive news in the week since Bowden's retirement. They made news with a Gator Bowl invite despite a 6-6 record, a fitting bowl tribute to Bowden's legacy. 'Nole fans sold out the game in two hours. The 'Noles have been going to bowl games for longer than my parents have been out of college (FSU Alums as well). But the main news has come in the land of recruiting.

The national media is a great tool to tell how outsiders view your team. Local media gives a better feel for what is really going on, but sometimes they get too close. This time, however, the local guys nailed it- at least when it comes to recruiting. While some casual college football columnists outside of the Sunshine State wondered if Florida State could recruit without Bobby Bowden, those who cover the team knew better. Not only did Bowden's retirement not slow down Florida State's recruiting efforts- ranked 37th as the time of the announcement, it ignited them. A week later, Florida State sits at 9th (14th in another ranking). Think about that. What if a college football team went from 37th to 9th in the polls in only a week? That would be unheard of. Perhaps the closest thing we've seen recently was Alabama's romp over Clemson in last season's opening game, after which the Tide went from unranked to a spot just outside the top 10. So what caused the jump from 37th to 9th? How did a team go from potential disaster to being a stone-cold lock to end up with one of the handful of elite groups of recruits in just a week? Ask an expert:

The Seminoles have 19 commitments, and the Hurricanes have 24, meaning FSU should breeze past the Hurricanes in the final standings.

"It's amazing how quickly momentum can change in recruiting," Newberg said. "I think the fact that there's finally closure with coach Bowden is really helping. There was such a black cloud over the university. Coach Fisher and his staff have worked really hard and stayed the course. They're just rocking and rolling right now." "They are the hottest team in the country."

It seems that the work done by Jimbo Fisher, James Coley, Lawrence Dawsey, O'Dell Haggins, and Rick Trickett (the 5 coaches who will remain on Florida State's staff under Fisher) was being outdone by the 'Noles competition, simply by telling recruits that they would be stuck playing for Bowden, that he wouldn't retire, or that Fisher would leave. But he finally did the right thing and retired. Recruits stated that they never saw Bowden and that his retirement was actually a plus for the program. Most viewed Fisher as the coach anyhow. The retirement took away the biggest weapon of opposing coaches in the game of recruiting. Florida State was like that pretty girl in a nice ride who kept trying to accelerate but didn't realize she had her parking brake on. Once it's disengaged- zooooooom. And her reaction to the burn-out is very similar to what Florida State fans are feeling like right now. After the "Lost Decade", many Florida State fans didn't realize the potential of their own program. Even the most optimistic FSU fan didn't see his team pulling the top two committed recruits in the country in a single week.

Yes, you read that correctly. As of this article, the top two commitments in the country belong to the 'Noles. A 6-6 team that plays in the ACC, has the top two commitments in the country and a top 10 class. That is a tribute to what Bowden built. No matter what went on during the Lost Decade, people will never be able to forget FSU's 14-year run of dominance from 1987-2001. Without those memories, recruits probably wouldn't come to Florida State. And FSU's top 10 class has only 19 commitments. The only other team in the top 10 with fewer than 20 commitments? The Florida Gators. The only other team to have two 5-star recruits? The Florida Gators. FSU won't catch UF this year, but the first step to putting the fear back in the spear undoubtedly is recruiting. With the ACC's worst defense in more than a half decade, the 'Noles need defensive help. It just so happens that those top two commitments line up on that side of the football.

First came Jeff Luc, the top rated linebacker in the country. His announcement shocked a lot of people, including one of his own coaches. Even those of us who had heard that FSU had a real shot to run him were a bit skeptical. Luc wants to lead Florida State back to the top, and grew up a fan of the Seminole dynasty. And you can bet that Luc was in the ear of another talented defender...

Two nights ago, Lamarcus Joyner, the top rated cornerback in the country, pulled the trigger and declared his recruiting over. Florida State had won. Not surprisingly, Joyner also grew up a big fan of the 'Noles- even though he grew up with with the Canes in his own backyard. These are the type of commitments that turns heads. Joyner declared Florida State "back", and his mentor quickly produced a youtube video as a tribute:

FSU also grabbed the top rated JUCO cornerback and pulled a nice haul of 2011 recruits in the days following the announcement. And not only did Joyner declare Florida State "back", but ESPN did as well. ESPN Radio's Sportscenter update routinely trumpeted the commitments. ESPN.com's recruiting section looked like this (click for picture).

As if losing one of the most legendary coaches of all time and proceeding to grab the two best commitments in the country wasn't a wild enough story, consider that Florida State did this with only 5 coaches actively recruiting! FSU is using only Jimbo Fisher, James Coley, Lawrence Dawsey, O'Dell Haggins, and Rick Trickett. Most fans probably didn't realize that college teams carry 11 coaches. FSU played 5 v. 11 and won in a huge way. Florida State is taking addition by subtraction to the max it seems. Bowden and the also-retiring and probably College Football Hall of Fame-bound defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews weren't much for recruiting in their final years, but the other three departing position coaches (Chuck Amato, Jody Allen, and Dexter Carter) weren't much for recruiting. Particularly disappointing was Amato, who landed a job as a head coach at NC State in the early part of the decade in no small thanks to his ability to recruit South Florida. In his return to Florida State he failed to pull a single full-time starter from South Florida, and managed to rub at least one program that we know of the wrong way. Fisher has picked up the slack. In a recent story, ESPN called FSU's run "Unprecedented", and got Fisher on the record:

On why the recruiting has picked up...

"The biggest thing is clarity now," Fisher said. "[Prospects] see the future of Florida State football is bright. I don't know if I expected any of this because young men are going to make their own decision when they feel comfortable in making it. But we had a good plan in place and we're going to continue to follow that plan and see what we can get done."

On learning from FSU's past mistake of having too national of a recruiting focus and alienating local high-school coaches...

"It's a funny thing that everybody wants us to recruit nationally, but everybody in the world comes down to Florida to recruit," Fisher said. "There is no question there is great talent in this state. There are great high school programs, great high school coaching and football is important here. That's not only in the whole state of Florida, but also over into South Georgia as well [Tallahassee is only 34 miles from Thomasville, Ga., and 89 miles from Valdosta, Ga., which are two big hotbeds for talent.]. I am not saying that we won't ever go any of those other places, but it makes all the sense in the world for us to take care of the kids in our home area." "Recruiting is work, evaluation and relationships,"

While he didn't mention it specifically, there is no denying it: Florida State thinks it can take Miami from UM. It's considered an impossible task, to be the king in another's land. But if FSU is to compete with UF on a consistent basis, they first need to knock out the 'Canes and raid UM's talent pool. And they sense weakness in the Canes. The state of Florida has more talent than any state in the country, but it doesn't have enough to support three great teams. FSU, UF, and Miami all cannot be great for sustained periods. It just does not happen. So taking out the easier target (and conference foe) first makes sense. Luckily for the 'Noles, they have James Coley. The fast-rising cult-figure doubles as FSU's tight ends coach and recruiting coordinator, and if you follow his twitter, seems to forgo sleep in favor of Cuban coffee and might violate FAA policy on cell-phone use during red-eye flights. He recently flew Tallahassee to Atlanta to Palm Beach to Los Angeles and back to Miami in a 24-hour period. Coley is the Cuban Conquistador in the 'Nole's battle to own the fertile recruiting grounds of Miami. He is relentless on the trail and fits the 305's culture perfectly. A scout from another recruiting site recently confided in me that Miami's coaches are scared of Coley and the other FSU coaches on the recruiting trail:

"Instead of being embarrassed by Coley and those guys, they just pull out early and make it appear as if they didn't want the kid. You can't lose if you don't play. But everyone in the country wanted those two. Heck, USC and Texas basically have an entire megastate to themselves and they would have loved either or Lamarcus of Jeff. If the 'Canes had Butch Davis or Jimmy Johnson or even (Dennis) Erickson, they would've fought tooth and nail for Luc and Joyner. And they probably would have won. But those guys aren't at Miami anymore. They get who they go after, but they rarely go after a kid they won't get."

Though Coley is probably the runaway favorite to win the recruiter of the year award given by Rivals.com, owning South Florida is an enormous task. He can't do it himself. But help is on the way in the form of FSU added former Tennessee and Auburn coach Eddie Gran, who recently agreed to join forces with Coley and become Florida State's running back's coach. Gran was Coley before Coley was Coley. With 10+ years of tremendous success forming relationships with coaches in South Florida, Gran knows how to operate in this battlefield. He is widely considered the South Florida best recruiter among coaches not located within the state. And now Fisher, who knows he must quickly improve FSU's talent level, has paired the Sunshine State's best South Florida recruiter with the only out-of-state coach who could consistently pull talent elite from Dade or Broward county. Gran is so good that a confident Tennessee program erected billboards announcing their intention to be a major player in South Florida recruiting. While it is extremely unlikely that a school in the Appalachian mountains could "own" recruiting in Dade or Broward county, Tennessee's bold actions are a testament to Gran's recruiting prowess. It doesn't hurt that Gran is also an excellent coach on the field, having produced the SEC's top rusher in 5 of the last 10 years, including Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, Deuce McAllister, Rudi Johnson, and Montarrio Hardesty. Gran has coached 7 NFL backs and multiple NFL Pro Bowlers. The scout on Gran:

"Eddie's been around Miami since the early 90's and can walk into any high school program down here and command respect. I can count on one hand the guys who can do that, and now FSU has two of them. Every team in the country would kill for Coley or Gran, and Florida State has both of them. Aside from UM, FSU has lapped the field in terms of setting itself up to recruit Miami."

Of course, FSU can't take every kid from South Florida. It looks as if the 'Noles will take 28 kids this year, by asking some recruits to finish high school early and enroll right after Christmas, thus utilizing an unused spot from last year's class. If they do take 28, look for at least 18 of those kids to be on the defensive side. Fisher's offense is already loaded and his crew of Sophomores (6 starters) and freshmen turned was the ACC's best offense in a decade. Scholarships are also opening due to some medical issues. I there is a strong chance that Maurice Harris and Aaron Gresham will not return due to injury. Neither were considered likely to make a significant contribution. There may be a few other current players who will look to transfer because they don't want to put in the work that the new coaching regime will require. With some elite recruits still considering Florida State, and the scholarship numbers favoring FSU, there's a very good chance Fisher's first class at FSU could end up in the top 5.

It also doesn't hurt that as FSU is hitting its stride, other programs are losing key people. Tennessee is under investigation for allegedly sending escorts to players in other stated. And as Jeff Luc mentioned, the Gators have lost two of their best recruiters and coaches. Charlie Strong, arguably the best defensive coordinator in college football, and an excellent recruiter for the Gators, took the head coaching job at Louisville. UF also lost its recruiting coordinator/ wide receivers coach Billy Gonzalez- to rival LSU no less. Add the total curb-stomping at the hands of Alabama in the SEC Championship game, and Tim Tebow failing to receive even 10% of the Heisman vote, and for the first time in a half-decade, the Gators might wish they would trade places with the 'Noles.

While the speed at which this all came together is remarkable, it was also very important that FSU act quickly, as a "quiet period" is coming up for the college football recruiting. In a few days the staff will re-group, focus on the bowl game, and ride the wave of positive momentum until they can again hit the recruiting trail in early January, leading up to National Signing Day in early February.