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Big Ten Basketball Power Rankings: Creed Style (again)

BoilerTMill — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 01:22:26 -0000

I can't believe I have made it almost to the end of December without doing a themed Power Rankings. That's just not right, especially since we had the epic works of Keanu on the last rankings done for football. Never fear though. The power rankings have now returned with the Big Ten season officially getting under way. Most teams have wrapped up their non-conference schedules, so it means we have an idea of who is good and who is not. That leads me into the theme.

I think you can agree that the Big Ten as a whole is a little bit off from what we expected. Michigan has underperformed. Iowa and Indiana are worse than we expected. Even Northwestern is off from its usual norms as the Wildcats threaten to get their first ever NCAA bid without their best player. We don't know what to think as we head into conference play, but we do know it will be entertaining. You know who else is a little off, but entertaining as hell? Creed Bratton.

That's right, the lovable, nutty old guy from the office. Creed is probably my favorite character on The Office, simply because he is so out there. Even though he usually only has a handful of lines in each episode, they are often memorable. That is especially true of his talking head interviews. What follows is my ranking of the Big Ten with each team given a great Creed Bratton line to describe its personality.

Michael: Someone complained that the men's room is "whites only." Stanley, you know that's not true.
Stanley: I didn't say that.
Creed: Then why is there a picture of a white man on the door?

Purdue (11-0) - I've been involved in a number of cults, both as a leader and a follower. You have more fun as a follower. But you make more money as a leader. - I had to give us this quote because we are the leaders of the cult that insists defense is an integral part of the college game and can win you championships. For being such an ugly league last season, it is amazing that we had seven NCAA berths and two more teams (Northwestern and Penn State) that were in the discussion. That's making money as a leader. When you think about it, isn't following the Big Ten in football or basketball like a cult anyway? You dress in certain colors. You all attend the largest gatherings en masse. You fiercely defend your beliefs. You give them money in terms of donations. The question for the conference as a whole is: Are we leaders or followers?
Ohio State (10-2) - The only difference between me and a homeless man is this job. I will do whatever it takes to survive. Like I did... when I was a homeless man. - This fits Ohio State because they are starting to come along without Evan Turner, thereby doing whatever it takes to survive. I saw them in person against Butler and this is a very good team even without Turner. Losing a close game to North Carolina and at Butler are not bad losses. They have enough talent to stay afloat in what should be a fun race until Turner comes back too. Dallas Lauderdale, if he can ever develop a move aside from the open thunderdunk, is dangerous.
Michigan State (9-3) - A lot of jazz cats are blind. But they can play the piano like nobody's business. I'd like to put the piano in front of Pam, without her glasses, and see what happens. I'd also like to see her topless. - Okay, Michigan State, I want to see you put it all together. You are the only team with the conference with enough talent to compete with the above two. In fact, you might be better. The fact remains, you are 0-3 in your real tests this season. As Florida drops more and more games that loss looks even worse. Yes, I am aware that the Texas and North Carolina losses were on the road, but you looked good in neither. Michigan State playing like it can play is like seeing Pam topless.
Northwestern (10-1) - Did one of you tell Stanley that I have asthma. 'Cause I don't. If this gets out, they won't let me scuba. And if I can't scuba, what am I working toward? - That is what Northwestern is saying right now with 10 wins in late December without Kevin Coble. Someone saying they can't win without Kevin Coble is like Creed having asthma and not being able to scuba. The only thing Northwestern is working for this year is that elusive NCAA berth. They won't win the Big Ten or be a Final Four threat and they are fine with that. With 10 wins in conference play (looking more possible, by the way) they can finally scuba. The idea of a nerdy kid with asthma trying to be athletic is also a solid parallel.
Wisconsin (8-2) - Every week, I'm supposed to take four hours and do a quality spot-check at the paper mill. And of course the one year I blow it off, this happens. - This explains Wisconsin's loss to Wisconsin-Green Bay, which is what keeps them behind Northwestern because it is a worse loss than Butler beating Northwestern. As the flagship institution in the state of Wisconsin, the Badgers have an unspoken responsibility to visit or at least play their in-state teams every now and then. It is like us playing Ball State, Indiana State, etc. Instead of having them come to Madison, they blew it off and went to Green Bay. Bad decision. Wisconsin does get bonus points for having the only other top 10 win for the Big Ten in beating Duke.
Minnesota (8-3) - Michael: This is Creed, and he is in charge of... something... right?
Creed: That is correct. - That is how I feel about Minnesota at the moment, but they do get a slight nod over Illinois because the three losses (Portland, Texas A&M, Miami) aren't as bad as Illinois' (Bradley, Georgia, Utah). Minnesota is kind of blah because they haven't really beaten anyone of note. This is the first of the Big Ten bubble teams right here. They haven't really screwed up, but they haven't asserted themselves. They're in charge of... something...right?
Illinois (8-3) - Michael: Okay. Okay, sold! Have fun, you guys. Well, this next item is sure to spring steam from your ears if you don't win it. It just says "Creed."
Creed: Yeah, that's all-inclusive. - Another vague explanation from Creed for another vague team. They have a better win than Minnesota with the amazing come from behind W at Clemson, but losing at Georgia? Seriously? Bradley is a middling MVC team as well. We don't really know what to think of Illinois yet, either. Still, they are a bubble team with plenty of room to improve.
Michigan (6-5) - Angela: I am proud to announce that there is a new addition to the Martin family. She's hypoallergenic. She doesn't struggle when you try to dress her. She's a third-generation show cat. Her father was in 'Meet the Parents.' Needless to say, she was very, very expensive.
Meredith: How much?
Angela: Seven thousand dollars.
Creed: For a cat? I could get you a kid for that. - That is what Michigan has to feel like with a disappointing beginning to what was supposed to be a promising season. Having a pair of players like DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris is like having $7,000 for something, but getting just 6 wins so far is like getting a cat instead of a kid. Sure, they have played a tough schedule, but they should have at least gotten wins over Utah, Boston College, and Marquette.
Penn State (8-4) - I'm not offended by homosexuality. In the 60's I made love to many, many women - often outdoors, in the mud and the rain... and it's possible a man slipped in. There'd be no way of knowing. - Was this JoePa in the 60's? Kidding! Seriously though. This is like Penn State bragging about their NIT title and early season conquests. We're not sure if the NIT championship and 8-4 record is good or not, just like Creed doesn't know if he slept with a man. There is no way of knowing. What we do know is they have lost games to UNC Wilmington, Tulane, Virginia Tech, and Temple. Are those good teams? Maybe? They should at least be NIT bound again.
Indiana (5-6) - I'm a pretty normal guy. I do one weird thing. I like to go in women's room for number 2. I've been caught several times, and I have paid dearly. - Indiana gets a very slight nod, even with the awful loss to Loyola (MD) above Iowa. The reason: most of Indiana's losses have been to (mostly) good teams and they did get one win over a possible tournament team in Pittsburgh. The quote sums them up perfectly because they are paying dearly still for the Mistake of Sampson.
Iowa (5-7) - What is wrong with this woman? She's asking about stuff that's nobody's business. "What do I do?"... Really, what do I do here? I should've written it down. "Qua" something, uh... qua... quar... quibo, qual... quir-quabity. Quabity assuance! No. No, no, no, no, but I'm getting close. - Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009-10 Iowa Hawkeyes! That is essentially what watching them play basketball is like. I almost went with the quote of "Just pretend like we're talking until the cops leave," because of the Anthony Tucker suspension, but I resisted. Iowa has lost so far to Texas-San Antonio, Wichita State, and in-state games to Northern Iowa and Iowa State for good measure. The Indiana-Iowa games should be relagated to ESPN8, The Ocho.

With that, I wanted to thank everyone for a wonderful first year here at SBNation and wish everyone a Merry Christmas.

RPI WATCH: 12/23/09

BracketCat — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 18:00:38 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

Get a clue, voters: Damion James, and not Sherron Collins, leads the best and deepest team in the country. (AP Photo/Harry Cabluck)

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The hit our numbers took from Pine Bluff finally showed up. I think we're still on track for an RPI Top 20 finish, though.

That literally and figuratively was a bad break for Texas A&M last night, and it really was no surprise that they lost to a decent team on the road after something like that. But the Big 12 now is 13-4 against the Pac-10, including 9-3 in the Hardwood Series, so our dominance hardly is in question.

Meanwhile, Kansas and Texas continued to stamp themselves as the best two teams in the country, although I still maintain their order should be flipped in the next AP poll. Nebraska and Texas Tech also picked up nice, resume-building wins. Other than Colorado and Oklahoma, and maybe Missouri, this conference is looking very strong.

Hit the jump to see how our other opponents fared. All in all, another successful night for the Cats' SOS.

Current Kansas State AP Ranking = 12

Current Kansas State Record = 11-1

Current Kansas State RPI = 3

Current Kansas State SOS = 5

Great Wins (RPI 1-50) = Loyola, Dayton, IUPUI, Xavier, UNLV

Solid Wins (RPI 51-100) = Washington State, Alabama

Bad Losses (RPI 101 or greater) = none

Loyola (9-2, 1-1) | RPI = 46: Win over Albany (68-56)
Western Illinois (5-6, 0-2) | RPI = 314: Win over Central Arkansas (55-44)
Boston (5-6) | RPI = 150: Win over Mount St. Mary's (86-77)
No. 20 Ole Miss (10-1) | RPI = 24
Dayton (9-2) | RPI = 32
IUPUI (9-3, 2-0) | RPI = 50
No. 14* FHSU (8-1)
Washington State (10-2) | RPI = 85: Win over LSU (72-70 in overtime)
Xavier (6-4) | RPI = 47
UNLV (11-1) | RPI = 27: Win over SMU (67-53)
Alabama (7-4) | RPI = 92
UAPB (0-10) | RPI = 265
Cleveland State (4-9, 0-2) | RPI = 239: Loss at No. 17 Ohio State (72-59)
South Dakota (6-5) | RPI = 208
Missouri (7-3) | RPI = 179
No. 19 Texas A&M (9-3) | RPI = 18: Loss at No. 22 Washington (73-64)
Colorado (7-4) | RPI = 237: Win over CSUN (92-58)
No. 2 Texas (11-0) | RPI = 4: Win over No. 9 Michigan State (79-68)
Oklahoma State (10-1) | RPI = 47
Baylor (9-1) | RPI = 101
No. 1 Kansas (11-0) | RPI = 25: Win over Cal (84-69)
Nebraska (9-2) | RPI = 156: Win over Tulsa (74-70)
Iowa State (9-3) | RPI = 120: Win over North Dakota (83-52)
Oklahoma (8-4) | RPI = 114
No. 23 Texas Tech (10-1) | RPI = 35: Win over Stanford (100-87)

*Division II Top 25

Big Evening for the Big XII

Evan Pfaff — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:15:10 -0000

Setting aside the non-marquis wins and gruesome injuries, the Big XII set the national stage a fire last night.

The top two teams in the country, #1 Kansas and #2 Texas, put on a show in front of national television audiences.

Starting with the early game, the Longhorns, held off #9 Sparty in Austin 79-68 in a hard fought grudge match. MVP of the game was Damion James who scored 23 and grabbed 15 boards. (This W comes in the same week the ‘Horns knocked off the Spartans '09 national championship game foe UNC Tar Heels).

Full analysis of the game can be found over at Burnt Orange Nation.

Following the first Big 12 victory, the Kansas Jayhawks dismantled the Cal Bears at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence 84-69.

Sherron Collins led the way in that game with 17 points and Big12Hoops.com All Decade first teamer Cole Adrich added 10 points, 10 rebounds and 5 blocks.

Full analysis of the game can be found over at Rock Chalk Talk.

Big Blue vs. Burnt Orange: Comparing Texas' and Kentucky's Victories Over North Carolina

Truzenzuzex — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 13:30:08 -0000

This is just a quickie this morning before I get to work on the Long Beach St. 49ers pre-game.

John Gasaway at Basketball Prospectus put up this article after the Longhorn's victory over the North Carolina Tar Heels this past weekend. Last night, I watched the game between the Texas Longhorns and the Michigan St. Spartans, and came away even more impressed with the men in burnt orange than I was with their victory over the Tar Heels.

Follow me after the jump for more.

I just want to compare the Four Factors to winning for three games -- the Kentucky Wildcats versus the Tar Heels, Texas versus the Tar Heels, and last night's Texas versus Michigan State:

College Basketball

NCAA Basketball

Looking at these three games, does anything jump out at you? How about the difference in offensive rebound percent? Texas dominated UNC so thoroughly on the glass that words fail me. Kentucky, in their game versus the 'Heels, did not fare as well, actually losing the OR% battle. Michigan State had it much closer the OR% battle with the 'Horns, but the Spartans lost mostly because Texas' defense forced them into only a 50% eFG% while shooting 62% themselves.

But another thing the Longhorns are doing that is even more important -- they are holding teams to an eFG%, on average, of 36.9%, #1 in all of Division 1. Where's Kentucky on that list? #53.

Another thing that you might notice is turnovers. Texas has a 17.2% turnover percentage. That's where UK needs to be, instead of the 23.5% that they currently own.

Now, I know Texas is a more experienced team and, at this point in the season, they should be better than Kentucky, so no big deal there. But lest we think that we are on the road to an NCAA championship with our strong play against the Drexel Dragons the other afternoon, let this be a sobering reminder -- Kentucky still has a lot of improving to do.

I do think the 'Cats can get there, and UK is also a very strong offensive rebounding team -- in fact, even stronger than Texas so far, and #1 in the nation in OR%. But UK has yet to dominate the glass against a quality opponent, and solve the turnover problem. Keep in mind that Texas plays even faster than UK, so the turnover comparison does not suffer from pace issues. UK needs to ramp up the defense, too.

Stampeded: Texas 79, Michigan State 68

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 04:51:23 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

Left in the dust.

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The 2009-10 Michigan State basketball team returned five perimeter players who played significant minutes in the 2008-09 season:

An All-American candidate point guard.
Arguably the most talented back-up point guard in the Big Ten.
Three upperclassmen wing players who have each played in at least ten high-pressure national-profile college basketball games.

Those five players combined for 20 turnovers tonight.

Texas is a very good defensive basketball team--the best in the nation to date according to the numbers--but their only statistical weakness/nonstrength is generating turnovers on defense. Opponents had turned the ball over on a mundane 19.8% of possesions coming into this game. MSU beat that by 10 percentage points: 29.7%.

College Basketball

Texas does post steals with frequency (13.9%), but only 8 of MSU's 20 turnovers tonight were the result of Longhorn steals. The majority of the turnovers were simply the result of getting flustered and making bad decisions with the ball against aggressive on-the-ball defense. Rick Barnes recognized and implemented the defensive game plan that's worked against this team so far this season: force them out of their comfort zone on the perimeter. The moments when the Spartans made Texas pay for its defensive overplays to create easy baskets going toward the hoop were few and far between.

MSU shot the ball well enough (5-7 on 3-pointers in the first half) to stay even with the Longhorns for the first 30 minutes of the game. But giving the ball away on nearly 1 out of 3 possessions eventually catches up with you (and 1-8 three-point shooting in the second half didn't help).

Defensively, MSU wasn't terrible. They didn't have many major defensive breakdowns leading to layups/dunks and they blocked out very well on the defensive glass. But you also have to chalk some of Texas' struggles to (1) Dexter Pittman playing only 12 minutes due to a couple borderline foul calls against him (can't pin this loss on Ed Hightower), neutralizing Texas' main offensive rebounding force, and (2) very poor free throw shooting (8-19). MSU had no answer for Damion James (23 points on 10-18 FG shooting), and Green, Roe, and Morgan all picked up 3+ fouls trying to stop Texas from scoring around the basket.

Texas converted 25 of 41 two-point shooting attempts (61.0%)--with a number of those 2-point conversions coming off MSU turnovers--and Jordan Hamilton provided some huge 3-point baskets for the Longhorns (14 points, 4-6 from beyond the arc). At the end of 40 minutes, 79 points for Texas in 74 possessions were quite sufficient to win this game.

Player bullets (official box score is here):

Draymond Green's assist-turnover ratio: 4-0. The rest of the team's assist-turnover ratio: 8-22. Day Day has to learn to stay in games by keeping his aggressiveness in check, though. He picked up his second foul midway through the first half on an overzealous double team. That would end up limiting him to 19 minutes in the game. Brilliant play to draw a charge on Pittman for his 4th foul.
Kalin Lucas struggled early and struggled often: 3-11 from the field, 6 turnovers. He made some good plays late in the game, though, when he put his head down against pressure and got into the lane. Why not tell him to do that from the get-go against heavy pressure on the perimeter?
Delvon Roe played well tonight: 8 points on 4-4 FT shooting, 6 rebounds, 2 assists. He was aggressive when he got the ball near the basket.
Raymar Morgan was good early, but finished with only 8 points and 4 rebounds in 29 minutes. Faded after a couple back-to-back plays late in the first half that had him sitting next to Tom Izzo on the bench. First pouting session of the year; hopefully, it's not a pattern.
Chris Allen shot the ball well (12 points on 8 FGA) but made some poor decisions with the ball (5 turnovers). Better than shooting the ball poorly and making poor decisions with the ball, I guess.
Same deal for Korie Lucious: 10 points on 4 FGA, 4 turnovers. Spinning into double-teams does not end well.
I give Durrell Summers credit for continuing to shoot the ball with confidence even after struggling early. Managed to cobble together 11 points on 13 FGA. Made a couple very agile plays on defense.
Derrick Nix played confidently during his 12 minutes on the court, scoring 4 points on 2-4 shooting. It's quite possible that a couple years from now Nix will be drawing the same sort of accolades Pittman is drawing now.

With just one game remaining in the nonconference slate, it sure feels like the results to date have been about as disappointing as could have plausibly been anticipated for a team ranked #2 in the nation in the preseason polls. Losses in all three non-home games against quality opponents. A home win against a fourth quality opponent that was just barely procured after a horrid first-half performance. Three offensive turnover percentages above 25% in those four games. (And Florida lost to another unranked opponent tonight, so that's looking less and less like a "quality loss.")

I don't have any great solutions (and if a know-it-all blogger doesn't have any solutions, who does?), but until the turnover issues are resolved the ceiling on this team's performance is pretty low. A #4 seed in the NCAA Tournament seems like the best-case scearnio at this point. And, even then, a loss to the first team with enough talent to play aggressive defense against us for 40 minutes would be a pretty likely outcome (ala the blowout loss to Memphis in 2008).

After one more nonconference gimme, there are 18 Big Ten games on the schedule during which to get it figured out.

Up Next: A long holiday-weekend layoff to mull this one over. UT-Arlington visits the Breslin Center at 7:00 next Wednesday (BTN).

P.S. Tom Izzo doing what a good coach does, talking his team up when they're down:

"It was a good game," Izzo said. "The place was great. I love playing here. Rick’s a good friend and I think he’s got a Final Four-type team. There’s more encouraging (than discouraging) coming out of Michigan State coming out of this game."

I, for one, am having a hard time finding the encouraging side of things right now.

Big XII takes over ESPN Tonight

Evan Pfaff — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 19:30:13 -0000

Big, national games tonight for the Big 12.

First #2 Texas hosts #9 Michigan State at 6pm CST at the Frank Erwin Special Events Center.

#1 Kansas follows at home vs Cal.

Both games can be viewed on ESPN.

Even though the top two teams in the country have been steamrolling through their non-conference seasons, tonight will be a great preview into March.

What are your thoughts?

Poll

How does the Big 12 fare tonight?

Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. Texas Longhorns

KJ@theonlycolors — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 03:55:10 -0000

More photos » by Michael Thomas - AP

Another ~~large~~ sun-blocking-out man who's got some ups.

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Your MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY SPARTANS vs.

THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS LONGHORNS

THE FRANK ERWIN CENTER, AUSTIN, TEXAS
7:00 P.M. (ET), TUESDAY
TV: ESPN2 (Jay Bilas!)

Longhorn bullets:

2008-09: Overall record of 23-12, 9-7 in Big 12 play, lost to Duke 74-69 in second round of NCAA Tournament, KenPom ranking of #23.
Returned 3 of 5 starters; A.J. Abrams and Connor Atchley graduated. But 7 of top 9 players by minutes played last season returned, and 3-4 freshmen are making significant contributions. This is a very deep team.
Plus they now have 5'10" guard Jai Lucas (a transfer from Florida) lurking on the bench.
Record of 10-0 to date this season. Average margin of victory of 29.8 points/game. Coming off 103-90 win over North Carolina (in a stupendous 88-possession game). Other quasi-quality win is a 16-point victory over Pitt on a neutral court.
MSU leads all-time series 3-2, having beaten Texas in each of the last three nonconference seasons. (Heroes: Neitzel, Lucas, Summers. Final entry on the list displayed in Youtube gloriousness in Fanshot below.)

In case you skimmed past the part about how deep this Texas team is:

Pos	Player	Height	Year	Min/G	Pts/G	2pt%	3pt%	FT%	Reb/G	Ast/G
G	Dogus Balbay	6'1"	Jr	23.0	4.3	0.586	0.111	0.429	4.1	4.9
G	Avery Bradley	6'2"	Fr	24.5	11.9	0.493	0.407	0.519	1.4	2.2
G	J'Covan Brown	6'1"	Fr	23.1	13.1	0.529	0.348	0.971	3.0	2.4
F	Damion James	6'7"	Sr	26.7	16.4	0.549	0.370	0.677	10.6	1.0
C	Dexter Pittman	6'10"	Sr	19.6	14.6	0.734	--	0.545	7.1	0.6

G	Justin Mason	6'2"	Sr	17.5	2.6	0.467	0.143	0.563	2.1	1.6
G	Varez Ward	6'2"	So	23.0	6.7	0.500	0.167	0.500	3.0	0.7
G/F	Jordan Hamilton	6'7"	Fr	19.1	9.8	0.469	0.341	0.636	4.3	1.6
F	Gary Johnson	6'6"	Jr	17.2	6.3	0.605	1.000	0.778	4.0	0.6
F/C	Alexis Wangmene	6'7"	So	11.6	3.8	0.615	0.000	0.600	2.9	0.2

(Notes: Ward ~~has~~ only played 3 games ~~since returning from~~ before suffering an injury. [Corrected per PB's comment below.] Gary Johnson has only attempted one 3-pointer.)

The Longhorns' depth ratio through 10 games is 1.78--which is sort of the functional equivalent of having two starting lineups.

Beyond fawning all over the length of Rick Barnes' bench, I'm going to keep the non-bulleted portion of this game preview relatively short. A lot of ground has already been covered in the questions and answers that Peter Bean and I exchanged.

When I look at Texas' tempo-free profile, I feel a lot like I did ahead of the two games vs. North Carolina last season: They're like us--but even more so. They're deep, play at the kind of break-neck pace Kalin Lucas and Korie Lucious dream of, score very efficiently around the basket, and crash the glass. On defense, they've been downright stingy, holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of just 36.9%. Even controlling for a fairly pedestrian pre-UNC nonconference slate, the Longhorns rank #1 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.

And I've only scratched the surface here. Texas actually ranks in the top 50 nationally in 7 of the 8 four factor categories (everything but defensive turnover percentage, although they've got a healthy defensive steal percentage of 13.9%--so they do have some disruptive ability).

If you're going to pin your hopes on anything on the Texas side of the statistical equation, it's that they've improved in 6 of those 7 top-50 categories over their performance from last season. (I'd speculate that this phenomenon may be partially driven by the same thing that happened when Drew Neitzel graduated in 2008. As great as A.J. Abrams was, working so hard to get him open jumpshots--something Travis Walton put a stop to for most of last year's game--may have detracted from using the team's other weapons in a more cohesive and effective manner.)

Given that this is a pretty young Texas team (particularly in terms of perimeter scoring), a reversion to/past the mean resulting from a couple shaky underclassmen performances isn't out of the realm of possibilities. Oh, and they don't shoot free throws well (62.5%)--although that's kind of hard to build a defensive game plan around.

Offensively, I think we need a lot of pieces to come together. Delvon Roe has to make Dexter Pittman work on the defensive end. Raymar Morgan has to play confidently but intelligently. He doesn't need to outscore Damion James; he just needs to make it a fair fight. Oh, and we need more than one guard knocking down 3-pointers.

OK, I'm basically repeating myself. So I'll just go ahead and finish by being explicitly repetitive:

Frankly, I think a lot of things are going to have to go right for MSU to win this game. It sure looks to me like Texas can match our team speed and has two players in Pittman and James that will give us fits around the basket on both ends of the court. This game represents MSU's last chance to post a big nonconference win away from home. If such a win is achieved, it will have been fully earned.

P.S. KenPom says Texas wins 85-66 in 77 possessions. But who cares what some fancy arithmetic says, right? Players play. Tough players win.

Ask The Enemy: Michigan State at Texas

Peter Bean — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 00:28:53 -0000

Another critical hoops game (Tuesday night vs Michigan State, 6 p.m., ESPN2), another set of questions with an expert on the enemy -- today, I talk with KJ from the superb Michigan State blog The Only Colors. My answers to his questions can be read here.

We'll get to the game momentarily, but first: In 2007-08, had no one defected early to the NBA, Texas could have sent out the following starting line up:

PG: DJ Augustin (Freshman)
SG: Daniel Gibson (Junior)
G/F: Kevin Durant (Freshman)
F: PJ Tucker (Senior)
C: LaMarcus Aldridge (Junior)

I have to imagine early attrition has prevented Michigan State from fielding an equally jaw-dropping line up. Give us the Spartans' Izzo-era equivalent, and tell us who wins the match up with our Dream Team.

KJ @ The Only Colors: I'm afraid we'll have to concede the Dream Team game to you--at least in terms of players from the last 5-6 years. After a rash of early entries from 2001 to 2003 (several of them of the ill-advised variety), Tom Izzo has managed to bring in players that are talented enough to compete at a high level but not so talented they're likely to leave for the NBA before they've played 4 years of college ball (which are a better fit considering Izzo's fondness for team depth). You'd have to go back to the 2002-03 season to get a hypothetical MSU lineup that deviated significantly from the real-world lineup:

PG: Marcus Taylor (imaginary Junior)
SG: Chris Hill/Kelvin Torbert (Sophomores)
SF: Jason Richardson (imaginary Senior)
PF: Zach Randolph (imaginary Junior)
C: Paul Davis (Freshman)

Really, this year's MSU team probably has as much pure talent on it (on offense, at least) as any going back to the 1999-2001 back-to-back-to-back Final Four teams.

The Spartans have faced three quality teams in the early going, defeating Gonzaga (77-71) while dropping contests to Florida (77-74) and UNC (89-82). In what areas did Michigan State struggle against the top teams on the schedule? What signs were there that better performances against the best are ahead?

KJ @ The Only Colors: Statistically speaking, this MSU squad is better on offense than on defense, but the team has struggled in two distinct areas on offense against their three quality foes. First, they've shot just 17.1% from 3-point range in the three games (7-41). Second, the turnover issues that haunted the 2007 and 2008 Spartan teams cropped up against Gonzaga (TO% of 25.6%) and Florida (33.4%) in a major way.

Defensively, MSU played Gonzaga tough and played well enough to win against Florida. North Carolina, meanwhile, came out red hot shooting the ball--racking up 50 points in the first half.

The hopeful sign, I suppose, is that MSU was pretty efficient offensively against North Carolina (outside of 3-point shooting) and may well have won that game in Chapel Hill if the Tarheels hadn't displayed such great shooting form. The 3-point shooting has been acceptable against the other teams on the slate (.343 overall), so the hope is that the percentage we knock down against better teams reverts to the mean.

How are the Spartans trying to attack teams offensively? They appear a bit less potent on the interior than in recent years, relying quite a bit on Kalin Lucas to create offense. Is that accurate?

KJ @ The Only Colors: You're right that there's not much depth inside for MSU this season; that's the #1 concern about this team. But Draymond Green has been a playmaker on both ends of the court as an undersized power forward, and Delvon Roe has been efficient with his scoring opportunities around the basket.

Ultimately, it's the guards that make this team go. Kalin Lucas has shot the ball extremely well so far this season (.541/.421/.755). Tom Izzo has been using a two-point-guard lineup, with both Lucas and sophomore Korie Lucious on the floor at the same time, more and more in recent games to take advantage of the team's speed and try to create easy baskets in transition.

Elsewhere, Chris Allen has been up (against weak competition) and down (against good competition), Durrell Summers (MSU's hero against Texas last year) has been mostly down, and Raymar Morgan is emerging offensively after dealing with ankle issues at the start of the season.

How does Michigan State deal with Big Sexy? Do they have the bodies to bang with Texas' aesthetically pleasing 6-11, 285-pound senior center?

KJ @ The Only Colors: That's a major strategic issue for Tom Izzo to deal with going into this game. Neither Draymond Green (6'6") nor Delvon Roe (6'8") are ideally-sized for guarding taller post players. And Pittman adds the element of massive bulk/strength to boot. It'll be interesting to see whether Tom Izzo throws freshman Derrick Nix (6'8", 280 pounds--down 50-60 pounds from his high school playing weight) out against Pittman for a couple longish stretches to try to neutralize his size. Nix has looked remarkable agile for his size when he's been on the court, but has caused great anguish among the Spartan fans by hitting only 3 of 27 free throw attempts.

Give us four signs -- two positive, two negative -- that, upon seeing them develop in the game, will make you cackle with delight / cringe in fear about the outcome.

KJ @ The Only Colors: Cackle-inducing signs:

A couple MSU players--ideally including the potentially-lethal-but-often-confidence-challenged Chris Allen--knocking down a few 3-pointers in the first 5 minutes of the game.

Raymar Morgan playing with confidence and good decision making against the similarly-skilled but even-more-physically-imposing Damion James.

Cringe-inducing signs:

A flurry of Spartan turnovers in the opening minutes. This won't just induce cringing. It will induce involuntary convulsions. With as many good ball-handlers as MSU has in its playing rotation this season, we simply can't afford to give the ball away regularly and still expect to beat a top-5 opponent.

Delvon Roe picking up early fouls trying to guard Pittman, forcing Izzo to either play Nix (or fellow freshman big man Garrick Sherman) for major minutes or go small with Morgan at the 4 spot.

Frankly, I think a lot of things are going to have to go right for MSU to win this game. It sure looks to me like Texas can match our team speed and has two players in Pittman and James that will give us fits around the basket on both ends of the court. This game represents MSU's last chance to post a big nonconference win away from home. If such a win is achieved, it will have been fully earned.

Conversations with the Enemy: Talking Texas with Burnt Orange Nation

KJ@theonlycolors — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 16:01:45 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Damion James rising from a sea of Carolina blue.

Browse more photos »

Peter Bean of the excellent Texas Longhorns blog Burnt Orange Nation (a fellow SB Nation site) exchanged questions and answers about Tuesday night's big showdown. His responses to my queries are below. I'm in bold.

Texas was one of the few tournament-level teams as reluctant to shoot the three-pointer as MSU was last season. How have the Longhorns dealt with the departure of the designated sharp-shooter A.J. Abrams? Where are the points coming from so far this season (starting perhaps with the 103 points the team dumped on the Tarheels on Saturday)?

You hit the nail on the head in terms of the problem last season: Texas had no one who could punish teams with the three ball, which meant you could just stay tight on AJ Abrams, who struggles to create on his own, and collapse the rest of the defense on the interior. This year, Texas can score in a variety of ways.

In the half court, Texas preferred first option will be to work inside-out through Dexter Pittman. If he gets the ball down low in good position, he's looking to score if he's one-on-one, and if the double arrives, he's passing out of it. Depending where the double comes from, Texas is getting a good look from Damion James on the weakside block, a cutting guard, or an open jump shooter. Secondarily, Texas' halfcourt offense is much more potent this year with three guards who can break down the defense with penetration -- Dogus Balbay, Avery Bradley, and J'Covan Brown. And finally, this team is grabbing 39% of its own misses, which go a long way to keeping the scoring moving, whether or not Texas is having a good shooting day.

Beyond that, this is a terrific team in open space, and Rick Barnes is appropriately looking to push the tempo (75.4 possessions per 40 minutes, 9th fastest nationally). What's really exciting (or frightening, depending on your perspective) is how much better this team is going to be by season's end. The supremely talented freshman Jordan Hamilton is playing pretty bad basketball right now. Avery Bradley and J'Covan Brown are beginning to play high-elite basketball, and they too are just freshmen.

Damion James was a pretty scary player last season. He looks to be even better this season. Tell us about the development of his game. Does he have a glaring weakness left at this point?

I'll be honest: James is playing at a higher level than I thought he had in him. He worked out for NBA teams last summer who told him he needed to work on his leadership and assertiveness, and he apparently took the message to heart. He was a very strong player last year, but he's taken things up a notch this year, to my surprise. His mid-range game and spot-up shooting are still merely solid, but he's doing a much better job parlaying his athleticism into scoring chances near the rim, as reflected in his 6.7 fouls drawn per 40 minutes. (It'd be nice if he could make more of those FTs, but...)

His glaring weakness is still his dribbling, which makes me laugh in a proud parent sort of way. It's great seeing him succeed as he is, because he's not a natural basketball freak like a Kevin Durant. He's an athletic freak who has humbly busted his ass to become a great basketball player.

The Longhorns have been downright stingy on defense this season, holding opponents to a 2-point FG% of .371 and a 3-point FG% of .243 and ranking #1 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. How are they doing it? Related: How much is Rick Barnes deploying the 2-3 zone this year?

For the most part, Texas is playing straight man defense, which has always been his preference. His zones have never been particularly effective, even when we've had the personnel to seemingly deploy a good one. This group is playing outstanding help/team defense, whether it's guards switching on screens, forwards showing on screens, or targeted double-teaming. We've seen a little bit of press from this group, and I suspect Rick would like to do more of it as the year goes on. I don't think Michigan State's the team we'll see it against, though.

Texas is off to a great start this season: 10-0 with an average margin of victory of 29.8 points (!!!). A #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament looks like a very obtainable goal. How big do you see the game vs. MSU being for the team's long-term prospects?

If Texas had lost to North Carolina on Saturday, I'd be very anxious about a second loss to Michigan State. As it is, winning this one will just be validation; a poor performance wouldn't be a major setback. At this point, the focus starts to be big picture, with no one game being make-or-break. Given what we've seen so far, a #1 seed looks like the appropriate goal, and there appear to be three games which will determine whether they deserve it: Tuesday vs MSU, January 23 at UCONN, and February 8 vs Kansas. Win two out of three and I'll be ecstatic.

Give us four signs--two positive, two negative--that, upon seeing them develop in the game, will make you cackle with delight / cringe in fear about the outcome.

Cackle catalysts: (1) Texas looks to the inside-out offense, be that through passes to Pittman or guard penetration. (2) No foul or injury issues that keep either Pittman or James from playing 25+ minutes.

Cringe creators: (1) Michigan State's excellent perimeter defenders choking off Texas' penetration and post-passing, leading to setting for jump shots. (2) Hot three point shooting early from Michigan State, forcing the defense out and giving the Spartans much more space to maneuver offensively.

Thanks, Peter. Here's to a great game Tuesday night--culminating in a Spartan upset.

RPI WATCH: 12/20/09

BracketCat — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 05:00:18 -0000

Well, the Cats did what they needed to do, and survived to fight another day as Upset Saturday claimed numerous other victims.

In a fair world, the AP Top 15 that comes out tomorrow would look something like this:

Texas (10-0)
Kansas (10-0)
Kentucky (11-0)
Purdue (10-0)
Syracuse (11-0)
West Virginia (8-0)
Duke (9-1)
Villanova (10-1)
Michigan State (9-2)
Connecticut (7-2)
Kansas State (10-1)
Georgetown (8-1)
Ohio State (9-2)
New Mexico (12-0)
Ole Miss (10-1)

It will be interesting to see what the pollsters, in all their wisdom, come up with.

P.S. Did I call that Wichita State upset or what? Booyah!

Current Kansas State AP Ranking = 17

Current Kansas State Record = 10-1

Current Kansas State RPI = 1

Current Kansas State SOS = 3

Great Wins (RPI 1-50) = Loyola, Dayton, IUPUI, Xavier, UNLV

Solid Wins (RPI 51-100) = Washington State, Alabama

Bad Losses (RPI 101 or greater) = none

Loyola (7-2, 1-1) | RPI = 45
Western Illinois (4-6, 0-2) | RPI = 320
Boston (4-6) | RPI = 146
No. 20 Ole Miss (10-1) | RPI = 24: Win over Centenary (108-64)
Dayton (8-2) | RPI = 31: Win over Presbyterian (71-52)
IUPUI (9-3, 2-0) | RPI = 50: Win over Duquesne (73-64)
No. 14* FHSU (8-1)
Washington State (9-2) | RPI = 83: Win over Portland State (93-69)
Xavier (6-4) | RPI = 47: Loss at No. 21 Butler (69-68)
UNLV (10-1) | RPI = 34: Win over SCUU (88-58)
Alabama (7-4) | RPI = 92: Loss to No. 17 Kansas State (87-74)
UAPB (0-9) | RPI = 260: Loss at Missouri (88-70)
Cleveland State (4-8, 0-2) | RPI = 247: Loss to No. 6 West Virginia (80-78)
South Dakota (6-4) | RPI = 139
Missouri (7-3) | RPI = 179: Win over UAPB (88-70)
No. 23 Texas A&M (9-2) | RPI = 15: Win over The Citadel (71-50)
Colorado (6-4) | RPI = 229
No. 2 Texas (10-0) | RPI = 6: Win over No. 10 North Carolina (103-90)
Oklahoma State (9-1) | RPI = 42
Baylor (8-1) | RPI = 72
No. 1 Kansas (10-0) | RPI = 20: Win over Michigan (75-64)
Nebraska (8-2) | RPI = 163: Win over Jackson State (57-41)
Iowa State (7-3) | RPI = 155
Oklahoma (8-3) | RPI = 117: Win over Northern Colorado (80-79)
No. 16 Texas Tech (9-1) | RPI = 33: Loss at Wichita State (85-83)

*Division II Top 25