SB Nation - Morehead St. Eagles

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Miami (OH) Redhawks -- Pre-game Analysis

Truzenzuzex — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 22:00:42 -0000

by Ed Reinke - AP

Heeeerrreees Johnny!

We continue with four straight days of Kentucky Wildcats sports today with men's basketball -- the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks.

In this post, I'll be breaking down the game (insofar as possible with the very few games played so far) and look at what we can expect from the RedHawks this evening in Rupp Arena.

The RedHawks have played one official game so far this year, and two pre-season exhibitions, just like Kentucky. The RedHawks won both exhibitions, but lost their opener to Towson State, 82-71. In that contest, Miami had the lead early in the second half, but turnovers and excellent Towson free-trhow shooting ultimately doomed the RedHawks, and Towson shot 58% eFG for the game to pull away in the second half.

Last season, the RedHawks were 17-13 for the season and 10-6 in the MAC Eastern Division. Miami returns 9 players from last year, losing 5. The RedHawks and the Wildcats have met 23 times previously, with Kentucky prevailing in 20 of those contests. The last time the RedHawks defeated the Wildcats was in 1927.

A further analysis after the jump.

Roster

No.	Name	Ht.	Wt.	Pos.	Year	Hometown/High School	Status	Pts	FG%	Reb	Asst	Stl	Blk
00	Drew Kelly	6-7	253	Forward	FR	Franklin, TN/Centennial
1	Rodney Haddix II	6-3	220	Guard	JR	Georgetown, KY/Scott County	Starter	5	28.6	2	0	4	0
11	Sean Mock	6-6	207	Forward	RS JR	Oxford, OH/Talawanda
12	Kramer Soderberg	6-0	174	Guard	SO	St. Charles, MO/St. Charles West	Starter	8	50	3	4	1	0
13	Michael Aluise	6-5	200	Guard/Forward	SR	Cincinnati, OH/St. Xavier
14	Kenny Hayes	6-2	183	Guard	RS SR	Dayton, OH/Northmont	Starter	17	38.5	4	6	0	0
15	Orlando Williams	6-4	173	Guard	FR	Cincinnati, OH/Princeton	Major cont.	5	66.7	0	0	0	0
20	Nick Winbush	6-7	226	Forward	JR	Shaker Heights, OH/Shaker Heights	Starter	11	57.1	5	2	0	3
3	Allen Roberts	6-3	211	Guard	FR	Middletown, OH/Middletown
35	Antonio Ballard	6-4	222	Guard/Forward	RS JR	Jeffersonville, IN/Jeffersonville	Major cont.	8	80	6	2	1	1
4	Julian Mavunga	6-8	245	Forward	SO	Indianapolis, IN/Brownsburg	Major cont.	6	50	2	0	0	1
40	Adam Thomas	6-7	227	Forward	RS SO	Springboro, OH/Springboro
41	Adam Fletcher	6-9	241	Center	RS SR	St. Albans, WV/St. Albans	Starter	11	60	7	1	0	0
50	Drew McGhee	6-11	231	Center	FR	North Ridgeville, OH/North Ridgeville
55	Vince Legarza	6-9	246	Center	RS FR	San Francisco, CA/St. Ignatius Prep

Statistical analysis (courtesy of KenPom.com)

Scouting Report
Stats include games through Sunday, November 15
against D-I teams only
	Miami (OH)		Kentucky
Category	Offense	Defense	Offense	Defense	D-I Avg
Adj. Efficiency:	103.5 [121]	108.7 [231]	100.7 [155]	92.3 [52]	101.2
Adj. Tempo:	69.5 [166]	70.4	71.4 [111]	70.4
Four Factors
Effective FG%:	53.8 [83]	57.0 [229]	53.8 [83]	41.5 [54]	49.1
Turnover %:	29.1 [257]	16.0 [235]	33.1 [272]	16.6 [225]	21.2
Off. Reb. %:	50.0 [8]	32.8 [143]	55.8 [2]	30.5 [105]	33.1
FTA/FGA:	42.3 [124]	43.9 [173]	53.8 [53]	18.5 [25]	39.7
Miscellaneous Components
3P%:	37.5 [85]	35.7 [167]	21.1 [241]	16.7 [14]	33.6
2P%:	52.8 [94]	58.1 [241]	66.7 [10]	51.2 [170]	48.5
FT%:	68.2 [131]	68.0 [148]	67.9 [135]	41.7 [5]	67.6
Block%:	19.4 [261]	11.6 [85]	6.1 [93]	19.5 [18]	9.3
Steal%:	14.6 [250]	8.7 [157]	12.4 [227]	4.1 [260]	9.7
Style Components
3PA/FGA:	30.8 [158]	24.6 [51]	36.5 [91]	36.9 [199]	32.5
A/FGM:	60.0 [78]	63.3 [223]	46.2 [189]	44.0 [85]	52.4
Defensive Fingerprint:	Mostly Man		Mostly Man
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3-Pointers:	25.4 [137]	18.3 [212]	16.0 [230]	20.3 [186]	26.2
2-Pointers:	53.5 [135]	61.0 [62]	58.7 [74]	71.2 [17]	52.4
Free Throws:	21.1 [144]	20.7 [148]	25.3 [81]	8.5 [266]	21.5
Strength of Schedule
Components:	111.2 [25]	101.1 [128]	89.3 [247]	104.0 [160]	101.2
Overall:	0.7494 [74]	.5000	0.1472 [225]	.5000
Non-conference:	0.7494 [74]	.5000	0.1472 [225]	.5000
Personnel
Bench Minutes:	0.0% [0]	0.0%	0.0% [0]	0.0%
Experience:	0.00 yrs [0]	0.00	0.00 yrs [0]	0.00
Effective Height:	+0.0 [0]	0.0	+0.0 [0]	0.0
Average Height:	0.0" [0]	0.0"	0.0" [0]	0.0"

You will notice that I highlighted the difference in point distribution 3-pointers. Miami takes many more than Kentucky, which is no surprise to anyone.

At this early juncture, these stats aren't terribly meaningful, but directionally, the do give us some indication of what to expect. In their first game this season, Kentucky was very inefficient offensively, but they shot the ball well from 2 and did a very good job of rebounding the basketball, as you would expect from the taller Wildcats.

Tonight we should see pretty much the same sort of thing as we saw versus Morehead, only Miami does not have a player that is as accomplished or athletic as Kenneth Faried. Miami is mostly a man-to-man team, but I would expect to see some zone from them tonight.

As you can see by their tempo statistic, in their first game they ran a bit more than Morehead wanted to do against UK. Miami may well try to slow the tempo to prevent the more athletic 'Cats, and particularly John Wall, from turning the game into a track meet that they cannot win. But Miami likes to play faster than the Eagles, and it will be interesting to see how much they try to combat that tendency.

Kentucky is far bigger, stronger and athletic inside, and that will probably equate to a big rebouding edge for the 'Cats, particularly if the Redhawks try to use a sagging man defense against Kentucky, as I expect. Miami does not take very good care of the ball (or at least, they haven't so far), so assuming UK turns the ball over less with John Wall in the game, as is widely expected, Kentucky could exploit Miami turnovers for some easy points.

This early in the season, detailed analysis is really hard, but I would expect Kentucky to try some different things versus the sagging defenses than mindlessly throwing up the always-available three-pointer that UK is going to see a lot of this year. It will be interesting to see how the coaching staff adjusts to the UK weakness shooting the ball from the outside.

Kentucky 75, Morehead State 59 -- After Action Report

Truzenzuzex — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 02:18:23 -0000

by Ed Reinke - AP

Do it this way, guys!

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First of all, I want to thank the Morehead State Eagles from coming into a hostile arena against a much more talented team and showing everyone how important experience is in college basketball. Morehead gave a fantastic account of themselves, and Kenneth Faried showed tonight why he has a chance to play basketball for money somewhere when he graduates from Morehead. Donnie Tyndall's team will likely be a force again this year in the OVC, and they gave Kentucky plenty to think about.

Okay, now to the Wildcats. There is a big difference in Kentucky with John Wall, and without. Eric Bledsoe is a remarkable talent, and he had a really good game tonight, but here is the stat that you don't want to see -- 4 assists and 7 turnovers. That is not a good line out of your point guard, no matter how many points he scores. And Bledsoe scored plenty -- 7-14 for 24 points overall, including a dipsy-doo whacko shot that will be a SportsCenter highlight tonight.

Kentucky, once again, was plagued by turnovers. But the real problem is, they were plagued by bad shots. Yes, I know, the three is open against a sagging zone like Morehead employed tonight, and the DDM is not as effective against a zone, especially one that essentially concedes the three-point shot. But Kentucky was not patient and was too frenetic in their offensive effort in the half court.

On the upside, I really liked our effort on defense, particularly all the players giving up their body for charges. UK is long and tall and will get a ton of blocks this year, but they really showed exactly how that is done tonight, managing eight blocks. When this team really runs the floor, it is hard to get back fast enough to have any hope of stopping them. It will be even tougher with Wall in the lineup.

Here are tonight's observations:

DeMarcus Cousins reminded me a lot of Randolph Morris tonight. I hope that doesn't continue.
Patrick Patterson was a true monster, with an easy double-double. That's the Patterson we need to see this year.
Darnell Dodson continues to play well offensively. He needs to be a bit more focused on defense.
Eric Bledsoe is off the charts as an athlete. He really showed his full range of athleticism tonight.
Perry Stevenson again gave good minutes in limited action. 3 rebounds in 14 minutes is not bad.
Darius Miller must become more of a factor. He totally drifted this whole game.
Daniel Orton is getting better every game. He needs to be more aggressive offensively.
Ramon Harris does what he does -- give total effort. He got 21 minutes tonight, and even though he didn't make much of an impact on the stats, he was excellent defensively and was a steadying influence on the team, as a senior should be.
Watching Calipari was really instructive tonight. Gone is Dr. Feel Good, who has been replacedy by Judge Dread.
I loved the crowd. They were big and bad, just like they should be.
Did Jimmy Dykes defend Calipari eloquently, or what?
No DeAndre Liggins at all tonight, and very little Josh Harrellson. I think I know what Harrellson means, but Liggins?

Overall, it was a good game for the 'Cats, and an imprvement over every game so far. Just imagine John Wall and Eric Bledsoe together. Just imagine that. Chills run up my spine just thinking about it.

1-0. Go Cats!

Kentucky vs. Morehead State -- Pre-game Analysis

Truzenzuzex — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 21:57:33 -0000

by Ed Reinke - AP

Expect to see a lot of Eric Bledsoe taking the ball to the hole tonight.

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Tonight, Kentucky takes on the Eagles of Morehead State, a Kentucky college. Like most Kentucky colleges, the Eagles have had some success in the basketball arena over the years, and last year made it to the NCAA tournament where they nearly knocked off the #1 seeded Louisville Cardinals. This is the season opener for the Wildcats, and as such is a very significant game.

Kentucky has had shocking failures early in the season in recent history. Last year, UK lost to Virginia Military Institute 111-103 in its season opener. The year before that, UK won the season opener only to lose its second game to Gardner-Webb (then affectionately known as "Gardener-Who?") 88-64 in a contest that wasn't even that close.

But Tubby Smith had a few tough years with early games, too. In 2001-02, Kentucky narrowly defeated exhibition opponent Athletes in Action, 88-83, in overtime, then went on to lose its season opener to Western Kentucky, 64-52. In 2000-01, Kentucky lost it's first two games of the season versus St. Johns and UCLA in the Coaches Vs. Cancer tournament.

As you can see, slow starts are not unknown to the Wildcats in the new millennium.

But tonight marks a new era in Kentucky basketball, and despite some trepidation about facing a team that made the NCAA tournament last year and who boasts one of the best rebounders in college basketball in Kenneth Faried, Kentucky comes into this game loaded with size, speed, talent, and an aggressive new offense and defense. This is Kentucky as it has not been since the late Pitino years.

A look at the Morehead State Eagles

Here is the roster for Morehead State:

No.	Name	Pos.	Ht.	Wt.	Year	Hometown	High School	Notes
1	Maze Stallworth	F	6-4	215	Sr.	Elizabethtown, Ky.	John Hardin HS	Role player last year, good ballhandler and 3pt. shooter (.380). 3rd leading scorer (12ppg)
2	Jamel Marshall	F	6-5	225	Fr.	Orlando, Fla.	Olympia HS
3	Aaron Williams	G	5-10	175	R-Fr.	Lousiville, Ky.	Dupont Manual HS
5	Rashad Hosea	G	6-3	185	So.	Detroit, Mich.	Cody HS	Not on roster last year.
10	Corey Clemens	G	6-2	175	Fr.	New Castle, Ind.	New Castle Chrysler HS
11	Terrance Hill	G	6-1	170	So.	Columbus, Ga.	Jordan HS	Role player last year, not a 3pt. threat.
13	Ty Proffitt	G	6-4	200	So.	London, Ky.	South Laurel HS	Transf. from Notre Dame. Saw limited action with Irish, may be a good 3 pt. shooter.
15	Brandon Shingles	G	6-3	175	Sr.	Albany, Ga.	Westover HS	Transf. from Abraham Baldwin (Ga.) CC
22	Demonte Harper	G	6-4	185	Jr.	Nashville, Tenn.	Whites Creek HS	Significant contributor last year, average 3pt shooter, good rebounder.
23	David Terrell	F	6-5	225	Jr.	Houston, Tex.	Worthing HS	Transf. from Midland CC
24	Steve Peterson	F	6-5	190	So.	Columbus, Ga.	Jordan HS	Limited role player last year, not a scoring threat.
25	John Lamb	G	6-1	180	Jr.	Indianola, Iowa	Indianola HS	Limited role player last year.
33	Jason Beharie	F	6-9	230	Fr.	London, England	Canarias Basketball Academy
34	Sam Goodman	G	6-2	185	Jr.	Lawrenceville, Ga.	Central Gwinnett HS	Transf. from Northwest Florida State CC
35	Kenneth Faried	F/C	6-8	225	Jr.	Newark, N.J.	Technology HS	Second best defensive rebounder in the country and 8th best offensive rebounder. 2nd leading scorer (13.8), good defender and shot blocker.
45	Les Simmons	F/C	6-7	220	Sr.	Mountainville, N.Y.	Cornwall Central HS	Transf. from Cecil CC

Coaching Staff

Name	Title
Donnie Tyndall	Head Coach
Chris Moore	Assistant Coach
Joel Zimmerman	Assistant Men's Basketball Coach
Matt Grady	Assistant Men's Basketball Coach
Adam Howard	Director of Men's Basketball Operations

2009-10 Overall Record: 20-16
2009-10 Conference Record/Finish: 12-6 (4th)
Last Postseason Appearance/Record: 2009- NCAA Tournament/1-1
Letterwinners Returning/Lost: 7/5
Starters Returning/Lost: 4/1
Newcomers: 6

Analysis:

The Golden Eagles have a large number of transfers this year, so there is very little known about them at this point. Ty Proffitt may tickle the memories of some, because the class of 2007 recruit out of London, KY was thought to be headed to Kentucky before he was injured, and wound up signing with Notre Dame. He was little used by Mike Brey, and now finds himself playing for Donnie Tyndall.

The Eagles get bigger this year with the addition of 6'9" Jason Beharie from The Canary Islands via England. Obviously, very little is known about this guy.

The Eagles last year were a scrappy, relatively efficient team that was solid defensively and very good on the boards due to the presence of Kenneth Faried. They are a smallish team, and had a tendency to turn the ball over a lot last year. The Eagles started very slowly last year, losing their first six straight games, including a 70-21 decision versus Grambling.

The Eagles are shorter, slower, less athletic and less skilled than Kentucky at every position. The only advantage they seem to have is experience and a solid Division I player in Faried.

Other than that, they have very little with which to challenge Kentucky except verve, grit, and the fact that UK is fielding a 100%, brand-new team under a new coach. That combination of negatives for UK should not be minimized, but it is very difficult to see how the Eagles overcome the overwhelming physical and skill advantages of the Wildcats.

The Eagles will try to control the pace of the game, and if they are able to do that, they may keep the Wildcats from running away and hiding. But my feeling is that they will not be able to slow down Kentucky enough to keep them from mounting a big advantage by late in the first half and cruising to victory.

Projected score: UK 86, Morehead State, 58.

Now We're Cooking...On Friday The 13th

Chris Dobbertean — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:00:38 -0000

by Reed Saxon - AP

Lorenzo Romar's Huskies are among the six top 25 teams that start play on Friday night. (AP Photo/Reed Saxon)

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For me, tonight feels like the actual start of the season, as I'll be at my first live game of the new campaign. I will sitting on press row for Liberty's visit to George Mason at 7:30 Eastern (no TV). You can tell it's an early season Friday, as there are quite a few games on the slate. This contrasts with what's to come in January and February, when typically only the Atlantic Sun, Horizon, and Ivy tend to take advantage of what is traditionally the quietest hoops night of the week.

But there is some action tonight, with four of tonight's games are particularly noteworthy. If a team's name appears in red, click the link to visit that school's SB Nation site for more full coverage. All times are Eastern.

Morehead State at no. 4 Kentucky (ESPNU, 6:30): John Calipari makes his official debut as head coach of the Wildcats, while highly-touted recruits John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Daniel Orton, and Eric Bledsoe face their first test as college players. That comes against an Eagle team, led by 6-8 forward Kenneth Faried, that gave Louisville a battle in the first round of last year's NCAAs.
Hofstra at no. 1 Kansas (Jayhawk TV/Full Court, 8): Everyone's preseason favorite for the title takes on point guard Charles Jenkins and the Pride in both teams' opener in Lawrence.
Bradley at BYU (the mtn. 9:30): The opener for the Braves (last year's CollegeInsider runners-up) and Cougars (last year's Mountain West tourney champs) also serves as the first game of the new MVC/MWC Challenge.
Wright State at no. 14 Washington (FS Northwest/FCS Pacific, 10): The Huskies open up their campaign with a game against the team favored to be Butler's biggest threat in the Horizon League. This game will be your first chance to see UW's highly-touted freshman guard, Abdul Gaddy.

Here are some of tonight's other significant openers you can watch if you have a good satellite sports package.

UNC-Greensboro at no. 9 Duke (FS South, 7)
Drexel at St. Joseph's (Comcast Network, 7)
Youngstown State at Xavier (FS Ohio, 7:30)
William & Mary at no. 12 Connecticut (Big East/Full Court, 7:30)
Howard at Indiana (Big Ten, 8)
Charleston Southern at Maryland (CSN Washington, 8)
Loyola-Chicago at Kansas State (FS Kansas City/Full Court, 8)
Idaho State at Iowa State (Mediacom-iA/Full Court, 8)
Western Illinois at Arizona State (FS Arizona, 9)
Austin Peay at no. 10 Tennessee (SportSouth, 9)

Take a look at Matt Sarz's College Sports on TV site for other games tonight that are only available on local channels, like Stanford at San Diego.

The Big Blue Daily Mail -- Morehead State Edition

Truzenzuzex — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:16:05 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

We'll be looking for some of the Bad Cuz tomorrow.

Browse more photos »

Tomorrow, we have the season opener against Morehead State University, a game I know that many of us have been really looking forward to. Unlike the cannon fodder that was our exhibition teams, the Eagles made the Big Dance last year (unlike Kentucky), and impressed everyone with their gritty play versus Louisville. These guys will be ready to give us a game, but we'll have more detail about that later.

John Clay has a video post up with John Calipari talking about the Morehead game, and the comment that struck me was, "This is not football. In football, you lose your first two and you're out of the race for the national title. That's not what this is." Well, coach, all I can say is this -- going 0-2 may not put us out of the race for the national title, but you can believe me when I say it will give you (and us) a lot of headaches, nonetheless. We have been there and done that, and we didn't like it.

Of course, Coach Cal obviously doesn't believe this is likely, and neither does anyone else with a brain. But it is just a tiny bit over the top to downplay expectations that much. That may work at Memphis, but this is not Memphis.

But just in case we have forgotten Gardner Webb and VMI, Bret Dawson reminds us that neither of those worthies were as good as the Morehead State team we are likely to see tomorrow, and they are. But I am confident, and I think everyone else in the Big Blue Nation should be as well.

Now, for the news

Brooks says, "Hartline and Newton to Play on Saturday" | straitpinkie.com
No surprise here. I don't care who plays as long as the offense moves the football and puts it in the end zone.
Tailgate in Nashville with UK Fans - KENTUCKY OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE
Saturday, November 14, 2009
9 a.m. CT, 10 a.m. ET
Kickoff set for 11:21 a.m., CT and 12:21 p.m., ET.
Parking Lot of Regions Bank
3021 West End Ave.
Nashville, TN
(next to Stoney River Restaurant, approximately a 5 minute walk from the stadium.)
SEC Basketball Preview: Kentucky Wildcats : RollTideBama Blog
Bilas likes UK’s talent, wonders about defense | Vaught's Views
I think our defense will be spectacular.
Morehead State vs. Kentucky preview: At #5, UK plans season-long success
Morehead State stands to become the first victim of the Wildcats in their season-long journey to a Final Four, but the Eagles of Morehead State wouldn’t let you think that. They come in with a distinction of having made the NCAA Tournament last season something UK cannot say they did. Kentucky must take this into account no matter how highly people think of them early on in the season.

Indeed. Not a team to take for granted.
Men's Tennis Inks Top Local Recruit - KENTUCKY OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE
" It’s CSI: Knoxville after Tennessee football arrests John Clay’s Sidelines
The learning curve: Calipari places emphasis on improving, not record
"The issue becomes 'You better learn quick, son.' But the only way you can learn is against teams that you risk losing games to. It's the only way," Calipari said. "Our first two games we could be 0-2 and me feel wonderful that I've learned enough to know what I've got to do."

Heh. You don't know this place very well yet, do you coach?
Tom Leach - Kentucky Football, Kentucky Basketball, UK Football, UK Basketball
Calipari talks to media, Brooks, Hartline interviews, much more.
2010 Basketball Recruiting.... No Need To Worry.
Reassurance, for those who were worried.
Rush The Court " Blog Archive " The Race For 2,000 Wins
Terrific analysis as always from Rush The Court. He says the fat lady is in the wings, and warming up.
Tobias Harris Journal: Some Shocking News Today
Bluegrass State Basketball is journaling UK recruit Tobias Harris.
Columnist Eats His Words about Joakim Noah
I can't stand Noah, and I won't eat my words even if he turns out to be the second coming of Mother Theresa.
SEC Power Poll, Week 10 - Team Speed Kills
Arkansas players have a problem with authority - Storming The Floor
To call John Pelphrey's second season at Arkansas a nightmare would have be putting it kindly. After making it to the second round of the NCAA tournament in 2007, Pelphrey and his squad hit the proverbial wall in 2008 -- losing 14 conference games after starting the season 12-1 with key non-conference wins over Texas and Oklahoma.

Man. Maybe Pel is destined to coach some other team. Talk about a tough ride...
The BCS' Worst Nightmare - Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician
The BCS Doomsday Scenario. You BCS haters out there ought to enjoy this one.
Calls for Steve Spurrier’s departure are unrealistic and premature | greenvilleonline.com | The Greenville News
Ouster? Really? It suggests collective amnesia for any group of people to maintain that Spurrier, toward the end of his fifth season, has outlived his usefulness at South Carolina.

You did know this was coming, didn't you?
UK’s inexperience doesn’t worry Vitale | Vaught's Views
Forde: Louisville being left out of ESPN's Top 65 a "glitch" - Card Chronicle
ESPN The Magazine''s college basketball preview issue hit stores this week and caused quite a stir in the Derby City when it was discovered that the publication left the Louisville Cardinals out of its "Top 65" team rankings.

I don't really blame the Cardinal faithful for being outraged. But part of me wants to laugh a little ...\
Saban not ready to 'give up day job' - SEC - ESPN
Several current and former SEC coaches will make their acting debuts in the movie. Nick Saban, Houston Nutt, Ed Orgeron, Lou Holtz, Tommy Tuberville and Phillip Fulmer all played themselves.

Heh. The trailer for "Blind Side" looks great.
Apparently, the SEC controversies are about to disappear. (And other things we know). | SEC Football Blogger
Wildcats Thunder Blog: The UK Football Coaching Staff--Should they Stay, or Should They Go?
Should we agree with every decision that this current regime has made during its tenure? No. In fact, there may need to be two or three changes made to the current coaching staff. This would bring in a freshness to the program and allow us to get at least 2 more recruiters who can produce better recruiting results than the ones currently on staff.

A very sensible look at the question, "Should UK replace its football coaching staff."
Vandy football player sees parallels between UK, Commodore programs | Vaught's Views
We owe the Commodores one. I hope we can live up to it.
UK Wildcats' roster plagued by injuries | InsideVandy
"I just hadn’t seen as long of a list as that on a Sunday as we had," said Brooks yesterday at his Monday press conference. According to The Courier-Journal, Brooks spent two and a half minutes outlining his team’s injury list, which included sophomore playmaker Randall Cobb, starting running back Derrick Locke, and starting quarterback Mike Hartline.

Hopefully, we will be in better shape when Saturday gets here.
Bud Withers | Pac-10 should go back to playing eight conference football games | Seattle Times Newspaper
Last week in the Southeastern Conference, Auburn stepped out and played Furman. Georgia played Tennessee Tech. Kentucky hosted Eastern Kentucky. Mississippi welcomed Northern Arizona. Tennessee invited in Memphis.

When's Furlough Week in the Pac-10?

This guy is making a convincing argument. Pointing at the rest of the leagues and claiming the moral high ground may feel good, but it is arguably hurting the league.

BtB 2009-10 Ohio Valley Conference Preview

Chris Dobbertean — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:53:25 -0000

Murray State was the last team to claim the Ohio Valley's automatic bid in consecutive seasons, and that was back in 1998 (under Mark Gottfried) and 1999 (under Tevester Anderson). Since then, the Racers, Austin Peay, and Eastern Kentucky have basically played musical chairs with the conference's auto bid, with Southeast Missouri and Eastern Illinois making cameos at the turn of the century. Last year, when it already looked like that Tennessee-Martin was going to break this particular triad, the Skyhawks tumbled in the OVC semis. The team that kept Lester Hudson off the national stage was another interloper, Morehead State. The Eagles knocked off Peay in the final to clinch their tournament bid in a quarter century.

Now, the target is on their back. Morehead will have to defend their title without the graduated Leon Buchanan, though rebounding machine Kenneth Faried, who's only a junior, leads the Eagles' four returning starters. Austin Peay brings back three starters themselves, but that group doesn't include Drake Reed, who averaged just under 22 points a game last year. The Skyhawks are in rebuilding mode, as they lost two starters other than Hudson. The Murray State Racers, who finished in second last year (and a game ahead of Morehead in the standings) looks like the best option to challenge their in-state rivals, as they return three starters, three double figure scorers, and some key bench components.

The real proof will come when the conference season starts in December. OVC teams play a grinding 18-game double-round robin schedule, which can lead to some surprising results during the regular season. However, given how the league has been dominated by three schools over the past decade, expect some sort of order to be restored in the tournament. The key question is whether last year's champs are now part of that order or simply an anomaly. Given how tight this league can get, f you have the chance to see an OVC game live or on TV (even if it is televised against some major conference showdown) this year, do it.

Southern Illinois-Edwardsville will become the conference's 11th member next season, so the double-round robin may very well end. This year, the Cougars will play a varied schedule, including several future league opponents. More on the ten teams in this year's edition of the OVC after the jump.

Let's start with a look at last season's final OVC standings.

Ohio Valley Conference Standings

(updated 3.20.2009 at 11:51 PM EDT)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks	14	4	22	10
Murray St. Racers	13	5	19	12
Austin Peay Governors	13	5	19	14
Morehead St. Eagles	12	6	20	16
Eastern Kentucky Colonels	10	8	18	13
Tennessee St. Tigers	9	9	12	18
Eastern Illinois Panthers	8	10	12	18
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles	6	12	12	18
Jacksonville St. Gamecocks	5	13	11	17
SE Missouri St. Indians	0	18	3	27

Now here are my picks for the 2009-10 season, presented in reverse order.

Southeast Missouri (last NCAA: 2000) Former Arkansas State coach Dickie Nutt, brother of Ole Miss football coach Houston, takes over in Cape Girardeau, and he has quite a mess to clean up. Former head coach Scott Edgar was fired right before the New Year for a variety of infractions just appealed the three-year "show cause" penalty the NCAA tagged him with. On the court, things don't look promising, as the Redhawks three leading scorers of a year ago are all gone, taking an average of 52 points and 14 boards with them. Considering SEMO hasn't won an OVC game since January 29, 2008, the new regime will have to be patient. The out-of-conference schedule is manageable, however, as road trips to St. Louis and Memphis, and a round-robin tournament at Illinois State are the most challenging outings.

Tennessee State (last NCAA: 1994) Much like SE Missouri, the Tigers will have a new bench boss this season. Former Auburn assistant John Cooper takes over for Cy Alexander, who was relieved of his duties back on February 9, when the Tigers stood at 4-9 in the league. They rallied to six in a row, five OVC games and a BracketBuster with Detroit, to finish with a .500 league mark. They closed the season with a loss to Murray State in the OVC tournament. Tennessee State's won't have much momentum heading into this year though, as four of the starters off last year's team are now gone, with only guard Jeremiah Crutcher returning. Cooper will need big contributions from his four JC transfers and five freshmen to avoid the basement. The Tigers welcome Siena to Nashville and participate in the low-major bracket in the Chicago Invitational, after taking probable road beatings at the hands of Iowa State and Northwestern.

Tennessee-Martin (last NCAA: None) The Skyhawks will attempt to replicate the greatest season in their history without superstar Lester "Done Ruthless" Hudson, a newly minted Boston Celtic, and head coach Bret Campbell. His replacement, former assistant Jason Jones, is young (my age in fact...oy), and it may be a rough first year for him. The Skyhawks return only two starters, guards Marquis Waddle (13.8 ppg) and Delrico Lane (5.1 ppg, 4.9 apg), and feature an inexperienced frontcourt.

Jacksonville State (last NCAA: None) The Gamecocks won 9 Division I games in their first year under James Green, an improvement over the five they won the year before. However, JSU lost their final six contests of last season. Three starters were due to return, until 6-5 F Geddes Robinson (8.2 ppg. 4.9 rpg) transferred to Western Nebraska CC in August. Leading scorer Jeremy Bynum (12.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg) is back for his junior year; however, Green has to replace DeAndre Bray, who averaged nearly 5 assists per game at the point. JC transfer B.J. Miller and freshman Samir Rolley are possibilities. Meanwhile, much is expected of 6-5 swingman Trenton Marshall, another JC transfer.

Tennessee Tech (last NCAA: 1963) The Golden Eagles bring back four starters off a team that won only 6 league games last year. Unfortunately, leading scorer and rebounder Daniel Northern (12.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg) isn't among them. 6-8 freshman Terrell Barnes is expected to fill the void left by Northern's departure. The returnees are led by sharpshooter Frank Davis (10 ppg, while shooting 42.9% from 3), point guard Will Barnes--no relation to Terrell (9.8 ppg, 2.8 apg, and 6-6 forward Kevin Murphy (9.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg). The Golden Eagles travel to Memphis, Kansas, and Minnesota this season, while Summit League favorite Oakland visits.

Eastern Illinois (last NCAA: 2001) With a little bit of consistency, the Panthers should be able to improve on their 8-10 league record of a season ago. Mike Miller's squad returns four of five starters from a year ago, senior guard Romain Martin (15.4 ppg), junior All-Name team selection Tyler Laser (11.4 ppg, 3.1 apg), point guard T.J. Marion (9 ppg, 3.5 apg), and 6-8 senior center Ousmane Cisse (8 ppg, 7.5 rpg). The fifth starter could very well be freshman Shaun Pratl, a football and basketball standout in Chicago.

Eastern Kentucky (last NCAA: 2007) The Colonels have a leg up on most of the league, as they return four starters. They'll have a hard time improving on last year's 5th place finish, however, when you consider that 20 point a game/does everything well-man MIke Rose is the missing starter. Senior forward Josh Taylor (10.9 ppg, 3 rpg) and junior swingman Justin Stommes (10.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg) are the only two returnees who averaged in double figures last season. Making matters worse for head coach Jeff Neubauer, sophomore Jorge Camacho, a 6-7 forward who averaged 6.3 points and 3 boards a contest, left the program during the offseason, giving EKU one less option. The Colonels will host one of the low-/mid-major "subregionals" in the CBE Classic, after they visit Pitt for their first game in the event.

Austin Peay (last NCAA: 2008) The Governors nearly made it two NCAA trips in a row last season, but they had to settle for the CollegeInsider tournament after dropping a double OT thriller to Morehead State. Dave Loos' squad should compete for the crown again, though like EKU, they'll have to do so without their Mr. Everything. Drake Reed, who averaged almost 22 points a game, while grabbing 7.5 boards a contest is gone. However, his key backcourt-mate, Wes Channels (16.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg) is back. If Loos can get some of the other returnees and even freshmen Eric Mosley and Chris Reaves to contribute some more points, APSU should challenge their Kentucky rivals for the crown. The Govs will travel to Daytona Beach to take on IUPUI, NC State, and Niagara in the Glenn Wilkes Classic, after traveling to Akron for the same event.

Murray State (last NCAA: 2006) While the Racers lost two starters from the team that finished a game behind Tennessee-Martin in last year's OVC race, Billy Kennedy still has a roster that can challenge for the top spot. In the backcourt, two double figure scorers are back, Danero Thomas (12.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg) and Isacc Miles (10.6 ppg, 3 rpg), and Jewaun Long (4.3 ppg in '07-08) returns from a knee injury to provide some bench support. The frontcourt is in good shape as well, thanks to the presence of 6-6 Jeffery McClain (6.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg), 6-7 Ivan Aska (10.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg), and 6-9 center Tony Easley (6.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg). The Racers participate in the Coaches vs. Cancer tournament, where they'll visit California, then travel to Miami to take part in the Florida International-hosted "subregional."

Morehead State (last NCAA: 2009) Leading scorer Leon Buchanan (15.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg) may be gone, but just about everyone else is back from the team that returned Morehead to the tournament for the first time in 25 years. First among these is 6-8 F/C Kenneth Faried, who averaged almost 14 points and an amazing 13 boards a game. Maze Stallworth, who averaged a little more than 12 points and 4 rebounds a contest, also returns, as does guard Demonte Harper (10.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.4 apg). Besides Buchanan, the other major loss for head coach Donnie Tyndall is 8 point a game performer Robert Murry, who transferred. Outside of a visit to Rupp Arena, the Eagles biggest challenge of the non-conference season is a trip to Logan, Utah, where they'll face three other teams who could win their leagues--Cal State-Fullerton, Weber State, and hosts Utah State.

I'm picking the Eagles to repeat in the OVC, so they'll have the league's auto bid in my 2009-10 Final Preseason Bracket, which I will release on November 9. However, given how hard it is to repeat in this conference, Morehead's name won't be carved in stone. Now, to wrap up this preview, here is my preseason All-OVC team, featuring the best returning players from last season.

Preseason All-OVC Team

Player of the Year: Kenneth Faried, 6-8 F/C, Jr. (Morehead State)

Remainder of the Team
Wes Channels, 6-3 G, Sr. (Austin Peay)
Romain Martin, 6-3 G, Sr. (Eastern Illinois)
Maze Stallworth, 6-4 F, Sr. (Morehead State)
Danero Thomas, 6-4 G, Sr. (Murray State)

Poll

Who is your pick to win the OVC this season?

Austin Peay

4 votes

Eastern Illinois

0 votes

Eastern Kentucky

1 votes

Jacksonville State

0 votes

Morehead State

4 votes

Murray State

3 votes

Souheast Missouri

0 votes

Tennessee-Martin

0 votes

Tennessee State

0 votes

Tennessee Tech

0 votes

12 votes | Poll has closed

USC maintains momemtum, Xavier cruises

SFBE.NF — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 16:09:46 -0000

#10 USC - #7 Boston College: Taj Gibson is perfect. Not really, but he was perfect last night, going 10-for-10 from the floor as the Trojans kicked off a brutal night for the ACC with a 72-55 victory. Eagle studs Tyrese Rice and Rakim Sanders were held to 18 total points and committed 18 turnovers. Proof that the Boston Globe is an endangered newspaper, Dan Shaugnessey, of all columnists, covered the game and simply tagged USC as the better team. He was right, as the Trojan Horse marches on to face the Spartans of Michigan State. There's some history here right?
#14 Portland State - #3 Xavier: "I watched Xavier this year, and I think Portland State will be the upset of the night." -- said the not-so-venerable Greg Anderson. Who the hell at CBS thinks it's a good idea to put Anderson and Seth Davis at the desk for the NCAA Tournament? Xavier never really had a chance of losing, as they handeld the Vikings 77-59. The Cincinnati Enquirer's Paul Daugherty said that it's a thankless win for the Musketeers, as they survive and advance. Xavier only committed seven turnovers and looked like a team focused on their third Sweet 16 berth in six seasons.
#16 Morehead St. - #1 Louisville: Cards coach Rick Pitino put it best after the game. He wasn't peeved at a two point halftime lead, or the fact that his team only out rebounded the Eagles by one. He was just happy that his opponent competed and exuded what March Madness was all about. The Louisville Courier Journal's Rick Bozich says that Morehead St. should of held off on their first half rendition of "Gonna Fly Now," because it was quite presumptuous. UL asserted themselves in the second 20 minutes of play, shooting an impressive 58 percent. They move on with a 74-54 win.
#12 Arizona - #5 Utah: An upset? Not in Vegas. Zona was actually the favorites in this game, and made the selection committee look good with an 84-71 win over the Utes. Zona's point guard Nic Wise led all with 29, as the Utes center Luke Nevill was limited with foul trouble. Wise slashed his way to the basket on a number of occasions, going 7-7 from the free throw line. A bubble team, the Wildcats now face Cleveland State in the second round, suddenly giving them a clear shot at the Sweet 16.

Louisville 74, Morehead State 54

Mike Rutherford — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 16:05:57 -0000

I think we all had a pretty good idea of how the second half was going to play out, but I don't believe anyone who says they weren't freaking out at least a little bit during the 15 minutes of intermission.

It's easy to say our guys got complacent after building an early 10-point lead, or that this team is about ten times less dangerous when Earl Clark is on the bench, but I think Morehead State also deserves to have a healthy dose of praise hurled in its direction.

We knew they were going to play as if their lives depended on the game's outcome, but the Eagles also came out and executed their game plan brilliantly in the initial 20 minutes. They got Maze Stallworth open looks from the outside, they detected the right times to hit Faried and Buchanan in the post, and they frustrated the Cardinals by alternating defenses.

If the game's outcome was determined by effort and execution, Morehead is right there in the final minute, but the Eagles simply didn't have the athletes or the ballhandlers to stop what we all knew was coming after halftime.

Andre McGee officially finished the game with eight points, five steals and four assists, but it certainly felt like he had about three times all those numbers.

With Edgar Sosa appearing less and less capable of playing with any sense of poise, McGee's importance has never been greater. I think it was around steal number three when I made the comment that Andre might be the most important player on the team right now.

Apparently Rick Pitino agrees.

"Without question, Earl Clark and Terrence Williams are the professional athletes, potentially, on our basketball team," Pitino said, turning to McGee in his postgame news conference. "But there's no doubt about it, this young man is what makes our basketball team win. Andre McGee is the key, times 10, to our basketball team."

'Dre is getting a lot of national love this morning, and nobody deserves it more. The tail end of the man's Cardinal career is becoming increasingly O'Bannon-esque with each game.

In a strange way, Samardo Samuels's midseason struggles may end up being an enormous positive for this team. Not only was Terrence Jennings able to emerge as a solid contributor, but teams have become less and less likely to double Samuels, and recently he's been taking advantage accordingly.

Samuels played hungry last night on both ends of the floor and was as aggressive when the ball was in the air as he's been all season. He doesn't have to carry this team to Detroit, but he does need to be counted on for somewhere around 12 and eight for the next few weeks.

Token

Jerry Smith's bench antics are forcing me to miss large chunks of game action.

I was really happy to see Swop stroke that three near the end of the game. A large part of the reason he's struggled so mightily since the start of Big East play is that he's simply not ready to log these types of minutes at the four, but he's also been playing without any semblance of confidence since the new year, and maybe hitting a shot like that in his NCAA Tournament debut will restore some.

"Swopsher" is officially the new "Palashus."

Edgar Sosa didn't do much well outside of knocking down a couple treys, but he was up and cheering on the bench almost the entire game, which is a great sign for a kid who will be relied upon heavily in his senior season. There will be a game between now and the end of the season where this team will need Sosa to step up in a big way, and keeping the right attitude when things aren't going well could play a large part in his ability to succeed when that time comes.

Pitino said he played Swopshire instead of Terrence Jennings at the four because Swop is better at defending the wings out of the zone, but that still doesn't explain TJ not seeing any time at the five in the first half. Me thinks he did something to get himself in the doghouse this week.

It's hard to believe that we've gotten this far without mentioning T-Will, so...T-Will.

After our game, I was cheering for overtime first and Siena second. Both were good horses to saddle up with.

The Saints aren't going to change because they're facing Louisville, they're going to play fast, loose and free with the ball, and that's fine by me.

I hate that we have to play these guys because they're a team I enjoy watching, but sometimes in life you have to beat people you really like. It's in the Bible.

I'll be making the trip to Dayton on Sunday, and could not be happier about not having to deal with Ohio State fans. I've found that I do not mesh well with their kind.

I've made the switch to pajama pants, long-sleeve grey Louisville basketball shirt and backwards Louisville hat at halftime of each of the last three games. The Cards have outscored their opponents 128-70 in those three halves.

If you don't think those pants are going to be worn underneath my jeans on Sunday, then you've got a punch in the face coming your way. That might seem excessive, but it's March and Louisville is the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, a fact that I've used to justify everything I've done over the past six days.

I still have a ridiculous amount of faith in Preston's outside shot. Keep pulling, young man.

I'd also invest every penny I own (both of them) in his on-ball defense. Bad economy, shmad shmashonomy.

Goode to see George on the floor again. See what I did there?

Earl Clark in March: still better than the best player from your high school. Still, I could do without the turnovers, E5. Just somethin' to think about.

Cleveland State was my big upset pick...and yet every bracket I've submitted is still in the bottom 50 percent of its pool.

There are few joys in life as absolute as being able to watch NCAA Tournament games all day with the knowledge that your team was victorious the night before.

One down.

Morehead State breakdown

Mike Rutherford — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 15:54:55 -0000

I'm well aware that this will be the most skimmed over NCAA Tournament breakdown of all-time, and that's OK. The dance is here, Louisville is the No. 1 overall seed; nothing can bring me down.

For reference, the following is based off of Morehead's first game against Louisville, its OVC semifinal win over Tennessee-Martin and Tuesday night's opening round game.

What The Eagles Do Well

1. Rebound

Morehead State ranks seventh in the country in rebounding margin, out-boarding opponents by an average of nearly nine rebounds per game. Despite not boasting a player taller than 6-8, and just two taller than 6-5, the Eagles - in particular, Kenneth Faried (see below) - are tremendous when it comes to rebounding position and blocking out.

They dominated the glass in Tuesday night's win over Alabam State, outrebounding the Hornets 50-27. There's little chance of the margin being as extreme, but Morehead will have to beat Louisville on the glass to have any shot at beating the Card on the scoreboard. U of L won the rebounding battle 42-37 in the first meeting between these two.

2. Switch Defenses

Morehead coach Donnie Tyndall likes to have his guys play almost an equal amount of man-to-man and zone in the first half, and then he sees which is working best and adjusts, or doesn't adjust, accordingly at the break. If for some reason Louisville isn't getting a steady dose of transition points, it needs to be able to recognize the type of defense its facing and get into the proper halfcourt set.

3. Share The Wealth

Four different Eagles come into the game averaging double figures in points, somewhat of a rarity for a low-major conference champion.

4. Be Familiar With Its Setting And Opponent

It isn't going to keep Louisville from being one of the biggest favorites of the first round, but having been in Dayton since Monday and having played a game inside UD Arena on Tuesday is an undeniable advantage for Morehead State.

Also, regardless of how lopsided the final score in the initial meeting was, it is more of an advantage to have already faced the top seed you're paired with than to be preparing for them for the first time. These guys have already played U of L on a basketball court and no one died, the season wasn't called off because the Cards almost won by 40, the Eagles learned from the experience and got better. Even if they were intimidated in November, they won't be in March.

5. Get To The Free-Throw Line

Morehead led the Ohio Valley and ranked in the nation's top 20 in both free-throws attempted (809) and free-throws made (583). Their 72.1% free-throw percentage was second best in the OVC.

6. Outwork Their Opponents

In both the OVC semifinals and Tuesday's opening round game, the Eagles simply appeared to want the victory more than an opponent that was at least equal in talent. Hopefully, this won't be the case Friday evening.

What The Eagles Don't Do Well

1. Take Care Of The Ball

You don't see a great deal of backcourt pressure in the OVC, but when the Eagles have been pushed by teams with better athletes, their guards haven't handled it particularly well. Despite falling by 15 on Tuesday, Alabama State turned Morehead over 21 times and nine of those came from the Eagles' starting backcourt.

Louisville forced 17 turnovers in the regular season opener, and six came from floor general Demonte Harper. It's a safe bet that the Cards might utilize some pressure on Friday.

2. Shoot

Morehead has a couple of guys who can get hot, but their collective three-point shooting percentage of 33.2 ranks just 207th in the nation. Open looks are generally hard to come by against Louisville, so it's probably going to take someone getting into an abnormally unconscious zone for the Eagles to keep things close.

3. Defend The Post

Morehead can actually boast one of the better inside games in the OVC, but they simply don't have the size to keep guys like Vanderbilt's A.J. Ogilvy and Louisville's Samardo Samuels out of scoring position. Both players had big games in easy non-conference wins over the Eagles back in November.

4. Be Athletic

It goes without saying that Louisville has a sizable advantage when it comes to athleticism.

Individuals

Kenneth Faried F-C, 6-8 (13.9 ppg/13.1 rpg)

The 2009 Ohio Valley Conference Defensive Player of the Year, Faried is the nation's third-leading rebounder and has recorded a whopping 23 double-doubles in his sophomore season. He plays with the energy and bounce (and hair) of Renaldo Balkman, but is also prone to the same poor offensive decisions. He isn't a horrendous shooter, but he's not a guy Pitino is going to have a problem with taking an open 17-footer.

He's a terrific defender, but he lacks the size to pose any shot-blocking threat to the likes of Earl Clark and Samardo Samuels. Faried will almost certainly be fronting Louisville's post players, forcing the other Cardinals to make a more difficult pass.

Coming out of Newark, Faried is a terrific success story, and you have to live this quote:

"I play in a smaller conference," Faried says of the Ohio Valley. "I'm not a guy who scores the ball and puts up 40 a night. If I do get to the NBA, I will have accomplished a life goal. If I don't, I will have my degree and be a tall businessman."

Maze Stallworth F, 6-3 (12.0 ppg/4.1 rpg)

Despite ranking just third on the team in points, Stallworth is probably Morehead's best - and maybe only - pure scorer, and often times the team goes as he goes.

He's the Eagles' most deadly outside shooter and isn't afraid to pull the trigger, attempting at least ten three-pointers on six occasions this season. Faried and Leon Buchanan will find a way to get their points in the paint, but if Stallworth doesn't have a career night then the 16 seed won't have a prayer. He hit 3-of-8 treys and scored nine points against Louisville in November.

He's a good, but not great, defender who will likely draw the unenviable assignment of Terrence Williams.

Leon Buchanan F, 6-5 (15.1 ppg/6.4 ppg)

Despite standing just (officially) 6-foot-5, Buchanan is a grinder who finds ways to get shots up and in around the bucket against much larger frontlines. He's more versatile than Faried offensively, but he still isn't going to set the world on fire with contested fadeaway jumpers. He isn't much of a shot-blocking threat, and we'l likely surrender the outside shot when matched up with Clark.

Demonte Harper G, 6-4 (10.8 ppg/4.1 rpg)

A respectable outside shooter whose major issue is taking care of the ball. Harper has had just one game this season where he hasn't committed a turnover, and has given it up five or more times on 11 different occasions.

That noise you just heard was Preston Knowles's stomach growling.

Brandon Shingles G, 6-3 (5.0 ppg/2.7 rpg)

Shingles is a lightning quick guard who has become relied upon more and more as the season has progressed. He's extremely athletic and can make big plays happen with the ball in his hands, but he's a horrendous shooter and is nearly as turnover prone as Harper.

Steve Peterson F, 6-4 (1.8 ppg/2.2 rpg)

The only reserve who saw extended action on Tuesday, Peterson will forever be known as the guy who buried the game-winner against Austin Peay in the OVC title game. The freshman has the potential to become a solid mid-major player, but he's nowhere near ready to compete with the likes of Louisville. He's scored in double figures just once this season.

Robert Murry G, 5-10 (8.3 ppg/ 1.7 rpg)

The team's fifth-leading scorer was riddled with illness towards the end of the season, and hasn't seen the floor in Morehead's last five games.

Terrance Hill G, 6-1 (4.0 ppg/1.6 rpg)

Hill, a freshman who started the first game against Louisville, missed the Alabama State game with a sprained ankle and his status for tonight is still up in the air. His playing time had been dwindling as the season winded down.

Cecil Brown G, 5-11 (0.9 ppg/0.5 rpg)

The only reserve outside of Peterson to see the floor on Tuesday, Brown probably won't leave the bench if Hill is good to go, and might stay on it even if he isn't.

Quotes

--"I think we can do a lot better than (the first game against Louisville). That game is a big blur to us. None of us remember that game -- or we don't want to remember that game, honestly." --Maze Stallworth

--"They have a couple of pro players on their team and have a great coach as well. Louisville's a great team. We got our hands full, but we're going to get prepared to the best of our ability." --Demonte Harper

--"A guy who's been a great mentor to me, coach Wayne Martin, was the last guy to take them to the tournament, 25 years ago. It's amazing how it played out. … I hope we can play the Cards as tough as Coach Martin did 25 years ago." --Donnie Tyndall

--"We're going to try to play our hearts out. But in the long run, we're just happy to be on the same court as them." --Kenneth Faried

--"Kenneth Faried, I don't know, he's just got a knack for getting boards. Like he says in practice, if he sees it in the air he feels like rebounding is an opportunity to score, so he go gets it." --Brandon Shingles

Conclusion

There's no doubt that Morehead's going to come out and play as if their lives are on the line, but I can't imagine Rick Pitino not having his team equally geeked for its NCAA Tournament opener. Faried and Buchanan will find ways to score and the Eagles will be able to hang around early if Stallworth gets hot from the outside, but they simply don't have anywhere near the firepower to play right with a team like Louisville for 40 minutes, a fact that was undeniably evident after the first meeting between these two.

Louisville, big.

My Tournament Picks

SHammonds — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 04:49:43 -0000

Everyone by now has filled out their brackets. It is a national pastime that usually leads to someone's girlfriend beating them because she picked teams based on their mascots or jerseys. Its embarrassing, but usually happens. Luckily (or unluckily, depending on how my night at the bar goes) I don't have a girlfriend, so there is no embarrassment in posting my 2009 Tournament picks. However, to those of you with girlfriends, beware of the mascot trick. It gets you every time.

Without further ado, here are my picks!

Now I know they may be hard to see. Just click on the picture and it will blow up larger for you, if you're so inclined.

Also, these are not the official Blogger So Dear bracket picks. These are my own, which is why they differ. The official picks were broken down region by region earlier today and yesterday.

Brief explanations after the jump...

EAST REGION (picks in bold)

1 Pitt vs. 16 E. Tennessee St. - Pitt is just too good. KenPom gives E. Tennessee St. a 6% chance of winning this game, and honestly, that may still be too high. The 2nd most efficient offensive team, with the 34th most efficient defense, Pitt is too well rounded for the 112th ranked, undersized (185 in effective height) Bucs.

8 Oklahoma St. vs. 9 Tennessee - Unlike the Bucs, this section of Tennessee is not undersized at all, ranking 50th in effective height. This will be a very close game against the 32nd ranked Vols and the 33rd ranked Cowboys. KenPom splits this game down the middle, but the size and big game experience of Tennessee give them the edge in this close close game. Honestly, the only thing that pushes this the Vols way is that Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism have been there while Anderson hasn't.

5 FSU vs. 12 Wisonsin - Well, Wisconsin shouldn't be in the tournament, and they won't last long. KenPom disagrees, giving the 'Noles a 47% chance of winning, but I just feel like Toney Douglas is too hot right now for a slow, less-athletic Badgers team to stop. Also, FSU's defense is vastly underrated, they are the 12th most efficient defense in the nation, actually more efficient than Wisconsin's (59). I just think Toney Douglas is on a mission.

4 Xavier vs. 13 Portland St. - Despite this game basically being a home game for the 119th ranked Vikings, I think that 24th ranked Xavier has is locked up. They are a tall bunch, ranked 19th in effective height. Portland St. is 187th. Also, while the Vikings rarely get to the stripe (324 in the nation in FTA/FGA), Xavier is 5th in the same stat, getting 23% of their points from the stripe.

6 UCLA vs. 11 VCU - Somewhat of a gut pick. Eric Maynor is playing lights out, and they stomped George Mason in the CAA title game. VCU is very well rounded, scoring 27% of their points behind the arc and 20% from the stripe. They are 61st in the country in effective FG%. UCLA is the 3rd most efficient offensive team, and usually a Final Four lock, but Eric Maynor can easily be the best player on the court if he plays well, and Larry Sanders will clog up the middle, disrupting the two point scoring ability of UCLA, where they get 57% of their points (58th in the nation).

3 Villanova vs. 14 American - Game is in Philly, Villanova has only lost once there this year...to the #1 ranked team in the country...by one point. No upset here.

7 Texas vs. 10 Minnesota - Texas is the 28th ranked team in the nation, while Minny is 45th. Texas is very big (54th in effective height) and well rounded (47th offensively, 29th defensively). They do get a bulk of their point from inside the line (60%), which could be a problem against the #1 ranked team in Block Percentage, but A.J. shoots around 40% outside the arc, and is too good to let his team lose to an inexperienced (307th ranked) Minny squad.

2 Duke vs. 15 Binghampton - D.J. Rivera is good, but Duke is 4th in O-efficiency and 17th in D-efficiency...no upset here.

SOUTH REGION

1 UNC vs. 16 Radford - Game is in Greensboro; with or without Lawson, this game's a rout.

8 LSU vs. 9 Butler - If J'Nathan Bullock can take over against Matt Howard, imagine what Tasmin Mitchell can do. Butler is good, but too young and not as athletic as the Tigers. Go with LSU. 24th in experience against 341st, and their best player matched up against Mitchell, it just seems like a no-brainer to me, but I have been wrong before.

5 Illinois vs. 12 Western Kentucky - This game was close. We all know about Illinois scoring struggles. That said, they are still the 23rd ranked team in KenPom and have the 4th most efficient defense. Thats just too good for the Hilltoppers, who are much shorter (224th nationally vs. 13th nationally) and are only 67th in O-efficiency.

4 Gonzaga vs. 13 Akron - Akron isn't good, the game is in Portland, look elsewhere for your upset. 5th in KenPom vs. 90th.

6 Arizona St. vs. 11 Temple - Its a battle of two great shooting guards, but I think Harden takes it over Christmas. 12th ranked team vs. the 47th ranked team. ASU is the 5th most efficient offensive team and 2nd in effective FG%. Go with the Sun Devils.

3 Syracuse vs. 14 Stephen F. Austin - 'Cuse is not tired. I don't want to hear that excuse. So they played one extra game. Their tournament ended Saturday and they play Friday. Thats enough time. They dispatch of the Lumberjacks.

7 Clemson vs. 10 Michigan - I don't think Michigan should be in the tournament either, and Clemson is better than a 7 seed. They are 22nd via KenPom and have the 11th most efficient offense on top of the 52nd most efficient defense. Look for Booker to overwhelm Sims down low as the Tigers take this game.

2 Oklahoma vs. 15 Morgan State - Love Bozeman's story, but hate to tell him that he's one and done thanks to Blake Griffin.

MIDWEST REGION

1 Louisville vs. 16 Morehead State - Louisville takes their second most efficient defense in the country and shuts down the 341st ranked team in effective height...could be painful to watch.

8 Ohio State vs. 9 Siena - I know I sang the Saints praises all year, but this is a tough draw for them. The Bucks block a lot of shots and are tall. They have the 26th ranked offense, and Evan Turner is good. Siena is a good team, but they get 61% of their points inside the arc (7th in the nation). Those are shots that the taller Buckeyes (Siena is 302nd in effective height) should block or alter. I think it will be close, but Siena doesn't repeat last year's success.

5 Utah vs. 12 Arizona - This is a tough game for me, because I don't think Arizona deserves to be in. That said, Utah is a weak 5 seed. Luke Nevill helps them have a higher offensive rebound percentage than any other team in the country, but they don't force any turnovers at all. Couple that with Arizona's 8th ranked offense and better than average turnover percentage and I think the Wildcats take it.

4 Wake Forest vs. 13 Cleveland State - Basically, I couldn't post this if I had this game going any other way. We all know why Wake wins if they show up, and I think they show up. Cleveland State plays man, so as long as Wake doesn't feel the need to chuck up threes, they win.

6 West Virginia vs. 11 Dayton - WVU is 8th via KenPom, Dayton is 83rd. West Virginia has the 15th ranked offense and 7th ranked defense. Those numbers for Dayton are 142 and 39, respectively. I take WVU in this for those reasons.

3 Kansas vs. 14 North Dakota State - N.D. State is a great team, but not great enough to top the defending champs. Kansas' 20th ranked offense and 15th ranked defense proves too much for the Bison.

7 BC vs. 10 USC - ACC homer pick alert! Southern Cal is much higher via KenPom, and is first in block percentage in the nation. That said, they are only 133 in 3P% allowed, which is where BC gets a quarter of their points. I just think Rice wins this for the Eagles.

2 Michigan St. vs. 15 Robert Morris - MSU is the weakest 2 seed in my opinion, but too strong to be knocked off by RMU. No upset here.

WEST REGION

1 UConn vs. 16 Chattanooga - UConn wins, even without Dyson.

8 BYU vs. Texas A&M - BYU has the 21st ranked offense and the 23rd ranked defense. They love to run, which Texas A&M doesn't (232 in adjusted tempo). A&M gets to the line a lot, but I think BYU will control the tempo and take this game.

5 Purdue vs. 12 UNI - If this were Creighton instead of UNI, I would take Creighton. But it isn't, and I won't. Purdue is 14th via KenPom, and has the 5th ranked defense and 52nd ranked offense. They only allow the 9th lowest effective FG%, compare that to UNI's mediocre effective FG% (65th ranked) and I take Purdue and Hummel.

4 Washington vs. 13 Mississippi St. - A lot of people have this as an upset pick. I disagree. Washington has the 37th ranked offense and 11th ranked defense in the country. Also, the game is in Portland. Washington gets a ton of O-Rebounds too, 3rd in the country in O-rebound percentage. Couple that with a terrible defensive O-Rebounding percentage for Miss St. (264 in the nation) and I think Brockman could get about 500 rebounds.

6 Marquette vs. 11 Utah State - Even without James I think Marquette takes this game. Wesley Matthews and Jerel McNeal will run all over USU's guards, and Lazar Hayward should match up decently with Wilkinson. USU is a solid team, but keep in mind that Marquette kept every game close even without James.

3 Missouri vs. 14 Cornell - Mizzou is too good to lose this game. Go with Mizzou, no other analysis needed.

7 California vs. 10 Maryland - Here's the thing, Cal is the best shooting 3P team in the nation, but only gets a quarter of their points outside the arc. However, they don't get to the line very often. The problem is, Maryland is even worse in FTA/FGA (334th nationally). However, Cal's defense caters to Maryland's strengths. They allow opponents to score 57% of their points from 2 point range, which is exactly what Maryland likes, scoring 57% of their points within the pain. Also, Greivis is hot, and Gary Williams is a great game coach. I go with Maryland.

2 Memphis vs. 15 CS Northridge - I don't like Memphis, but they are too good to lose this game.

SECOND ROUND

EAST REGION

1 Pitt vs. 9 Tennessee - Pitt again has the second rated offense in the nation, and is first in O-Rebounding percentage. They might not be the tallest bunch, but we all know that Blair plays like a madman around the rim, as evidenced by his domination of Thabeet. Add in Levance Fields and Sam Young and I think they have the talent to make a long long run. Tennessee has a tall team, but allow a 30.3 O-Rebounding percentage against their opponents; not terrible (68th nationally), but couple that with Pitt's stellar percentage and that equals a good amount of second chance buckets that Blair almost always converts.

5 FSU vs. 4 Xavier - Again, I think the play of Toney Douglas pushes FSU over the top in this one. Xavier is efficient on both offense and defense, but I don't think they have an answer for Douglas defensively. They are 337 nationally in Block percentage, which basically means an open lane for Douglas to get into and make things happen. Also, FSU gets to the line pretty often, and are a good FT shooting team. Xavier is above average in opponents FTA/FGA, but I think FSU gets to the line more than Xavier likes, and converts. That coupled with Douglas means a FSU win.

11 VCU vs. 3 Villanova - Like 2007, VCU only wins one tourney game. Villanova gets to the line a lot (31st in FTA/FGA) and converts, (29th in FT%). Larry Sanders will foul those driving guards that 'Nova has. Eric Maynor will put up points on this team that allows 33.9% 3 point shooting, but it won't be enough as VCU doesn't get enough points at the foul line (only 20%) and allows too many O-Rebounds. 'Nova plays a faster game than VCU likes, and I think Wright will push the tempo against a team with not much of a bench.

7 Texas vs. 2 Duke - A lot of people, experts included, have Texas taking this game. I see how it could happen, I just don't see it happening. Duke has the 4th most efficient offense in the nation and the 17th ranked defense. Compare that to Texas' ranks of 47 and 29 respectively. Texas does have some quality bigs in Pittman and Atchley, but they allow 34% from behind the arc, where Duke thrives, getting 28% of their points. Couple that with the 51st ranked FTA/FGA and I believe Duke gets enough from their guards to get the win.

SOUTH REGION

1 UNC vs. 8 LSU - With or without Lawson I see the 'Heels taking this. The nations most efficient offense thrives on Lawson's (the nations most efficient player) contributions, but any of Hansbrough, Ellington, and Green can go off at any point against LSU. I see the Tigers throwing two-three defenders at Hansbrough all game, but unlike FSU, they don't have Toney Douglas. No doubt Marcus Thornton will make an impact, and we all know what Mitchell can do, but LSU plays a slower ball game than UNC (148 nationally) and Frasor can handle the run and gun, albeit not as well as Lawson. I see the 'Heels taking this one regardless of Lawson.

4 Gonzaga vs. 5 Illinois - Unlike WKU, Gonzaga can score efficiently. This game pits the 5th most efficient offense (and 9th ranked defense) against the 4th most efficient defense (but 96th ranked offense). The problem for Illinois will be getting to the line. They are 344th in FTA/FGA, which is terrible. Gonzaga is 26th in the nation in terms of keeping the other team off the stripe. They are 10th in effective FG% and will be one of the most well-oiled offensive machines Illinois has seen all year. Illinois will slow them down, but Gonzaga will return the favor. It will be a low scoring affair, but Gonzaga should take it easily in my opinion.

6 Arizona St. vs. 3 Syracuse - Again, I think 'Cuse will be ready to go, I while I think Harden might be the best player they've seen all year, they have seen a Marquette team with two great guards in Matthews and McNeal. They are 9th in the nation in 3P% allowed, which is huge for ASU as they get 35% of their points behind the arc (29th nationally). ASU is a great offensive team, but I see Syracuse having too many weapons in Flynn, Devendorf, Harris, and Rautins for ASU to take this game.

7 Clemson vs. 2 Oklahoma - Honestly, this will be a battle of the bigs between Booker and Griffin. Booker is a great player, but I don't think he, or anyone else, can slow down Griffin. Oklahoma shoots 56% in their 2 point buckets, Clemson allows 46%. It should be a close enough game, but Oklahoma should get to the line enough (9th in FTA/FGA) to lock this one up.

MIDWEST REGION

1 Louisville vs. 8 Ohio State - This game should be closer than people expect it to be. The game is in Dayton, which should have a good contingent of both teams fans, but I see Ohio State getting the slight advantage in their home state. That said, Louisville has the 2nd rated defense in the nation. They only allow a 44% effective FG%. Ohio State only has the 72nd rated defense, but does have the 9th best effective FG% in the country. The problem is that Ohio State mostly plays zone, and UL gets 33% of their points from behind the arc, so that shouldn't effect them. However, UL's defense is strong both inside and outside the arc. UL should take this.

4 Wake Forest vs. 12 Arizona - Everything I talked about up to this point should convince me to take Arizona in this game. They play zone, Wake only shoots 32% from behind the arc and only gets 15% of their points from there. However, Wake does shoot 54% from within the arc, and is 25th in the nation in terms of getting to the line. Arizona doesn't get to the line, but is 7th in limiting their opponents FTs. That said, they also allow the 214th worst 2P%. If Wake doesn't try and shoot over the zone, they should hit their shots, and get some fouls along the way to winning this game.

6 West Virginia vs. 3 Kansas - I'd like for WVU to take this game, but I don't think it will happen. WVU is a more efficient team offensively and defensively, but don't shoot well from behind the arc, and Kansas is capable running the zone. Kansas is also in the top 53 in all three shooting catergories (3P, 2P, and FT), while WVU peaks at 147 in FT shooting. It will be a close game, but I take Self and the 34th tallest team in the nation over Huggy and the 102nd tallest.

7 Boston College vs. 2 Michigan State - BC barely squeaked by USC in the first round, and I can't honestly take them over MSU in this game. BC has a solid offense, but their defense falls to 132 in the nation. They don't force many turnovers, and aren't above 91 in any allowed shot percentage. MSU doesn't shoot the lights out, but are 5th in O-Rebounding percentage. BC is 311 in O-Rebounding Percentage allowed. That adds up to BC usually allowing MSU to hit shots, and if they don't, letting Suton and Raymar Morgan gobble up boards.

WEST REGION

1 UConn vs. 8 BYU - This should be an interesting game. UConn doesn't play as fast as BYU, but has the third rated defense in the nation in terms of efficiency. They only allow 31% of 3-point shots to fall, and only 40% of shots within the arc to fall. They are also first in the nation in not allowing their opponents to get to the stripe in terms of FTA/FGA. BYU doesn't rely on any shot, evenly spread out between 3-point shots, 2-pointers, and FTs. That said, they shoot very well from behind (33rd nationally) and within (8th nationally) the arc. I'm not sure how much of an impact Thabeet will have as they don't take it to the hoop as hard as others do, but the main difference will be the fact that despite this, UConn is the 2nd tallest team in the nation, and the 34th most experienced. Calhoun will win this for them.

5 Purdue vs. 4 Washington - I like Purdue and Hummel, but they don't match up well with the 6th fastest team in terms of adjusted tempo in the nation. Washington gets a ton of O-Rebounds, blocks a lot of shots, and gets to the line as well as anyone. Compare that to a Purdue team that is 127th in allowing O-Rebounds, and really struggles getting to the line (249th in FTA/FGA) and this game matches up well for Washington. This will be a battle, but free throws and second chance points, coupled with fast break points will win this for Washington.

6 Marquette vs. 3 Missouri - This is where losing a distributing PG like James will hurt the Golden Eagles. Mizzou has the second highest steal percentage in the nation, and only allows 30% 3-point shooting. Marquette gets 27% of their points from behind the arc, and I would guess without James breaking down defenses, that number is higher since he left. Also, without their point, their tenth rated TO% will not live up to form against a ball-hawking Mizzou team. Marquette will get to the line, but not enough to top Mizzou.

10 Maryland vs. 2 Memphis - Memphis has the top rated defense in terms of efficiency, and is also #1 in effective FG% allowed. Now, remember, half of their games were against Conference USA competition, but Maryland only has the 72nd rated offense and has the 260th ranked effective FG%. This translates to a poor offensive day for the Terps, and a loss. If they got to the line more efficiently they could win, but they are 334 in FTA/FGA. Sorry Greivis, game over.

SWEET SIXTEEN

EAST REGION

1 Pitt vs. 5 FSU - The second most efficient offense against the 12 most efficient defense. The issue for the 'Noles in this game will come on the boards, as the Panthers are the highest ranked team in terms of O-Rebounding percentage. The 'Noles are 274 in O-Rebounding percentage allowed. Levance Fields will be one of the better defenders Douglas has seen all year, and Blair will tear it up inside. However, I think Sam Young will be the highlight of this game as I don't see anyone who can match up well inside and out on FSU. FSU is a lot taller than Pitt, but look how that faired for UConn. When DeJuan Blair is on your squad it doesn't matter how tall the other team is.

2 Duke vs. 3 Villanova - This game will be a battle of the guards, coupled with Cunningham duking it out down low against Singler. These teams match up very evenly, but what gives Duke the edge is Villanova's not-stellar 3-Point defense. They allow opponents to shoot 34% and score 35% of their points behind the arc. Duke shoots 35% and their 3-point shooting accounts for 28% of their scoring. If Duke can shoot over 'Nova's zone, they win, if not, they lose. I think they can, and they will.

SOUTH REGION

1 UNC vs. 4 Gonzaga - This is another game many people are predicting an upset in. I see Lawson being back by the second weekend of the tournament, and therefore the 'Heels winning this game. This will be a close game, but what will push it the 'Heels way will the FT disparity. The Zags are only 217 in terms of getting to the line, and the 'Heels are 6th best in opponent's FTA/FGA. The Zags have the best 2-point defense in the nation, but the 'Heels are more than capable of hitting the three-point shot, shooting 37%. These teams are very similar teams, and the Zags are taller and older. However, the Heels have more big game experience after last years Final 4 run, and I think they pull this out but only WITH Lawson, and I think he plays.

2 Oklahoma vs. 3 Syracuse - Blake Griffin will be a man in this game down low, as Syracuse only has the 185th best 2-point defense. That said, I think Syracuse has more weapons outside the paint than Oklahoma. Flynn will run all Austin Johnson, who is a good point, but nowhere near Flynn's level in my opinion. Syracuse has the 6th highest 2-point FG% and only allows opponents to shoot 29.5% behind the arc. OU does get 26% of their points behind the arc, so Syracuse should limit that. Harris and Onuaku are some sturdy bigs who should hang with Griffin down low and should be a formidable double team. I just see Flynn upping the tempo in this, penetrating like he did against UConn, and outrunning and outgunning an Oklahoma team totally reliant on Griffin.

MIDWEST

1 Louisville vs. 4 Wake Forest - This is a bold pick, but I think Jeff Teague wins this one. It is in Indianapolis, which will be huge for him. Louisville runs a man defense, which should be good for Wake. The problem for UL will be FTs, as they are only 283rd in FTA/FGA and 302nd in FT%. Wake on the other hand is 25th in FTA/FGA and shoots 71% from the stripe. Wake is also the tallest team in the nation. If Wake employs that length and puts Johnson on T-Williams, they should be able to shut down Williams. These teams each have a glaring weakness: Wake's is three point shooting, UL's is FT shooting and opportunities. The difference: UL isn't equipped to exploit Wake's weakness, while Wake can exploit UL's.

2 Michigan State vs. 3 Kansas - In my opinion, MSU is the weakest 2 seed by far. They aren't spectacular at anything outside of O-Rebounding percentage. The reason I pick Kansas in this game is because of how well rounded they are. They are the 37th ranked 3-point shooting team and the 33rd ranked 2-point shooting team. MSU isn't as effective a shooting team, but also allow 47.4% of opponents 2-point shots to drop, only 137 in the nation. I see Sherron Collins driving and dishing Kansas to a victory.

WEST REGION

1 UConn vs. 4 Washington - UConn doesn't allow as many offensive rebounds as the other squads Washington has faced, so the Huskies can't rely on those boards like they have in the past. The problem for Washington in this one is that they like to go inside getting 60% of their points in there (22nd nationally) and they don't get blocked very much. This is a problem because in this game they will get blocked. This will affect the O-rebounds they get, and hurt them offensively in a way they haven't experienced yet. If they can gameplan well for Thabeet they can win, but I don't they can do it, and I think UConn wins this.

2 Memphis vs. 3 Missouri - I am not impressed by Memphis. They lost all their guys, but still had a good year. Unlike Kansas, they did this in the weak C-USA (Kansas won the Big 12). Memphis is a poor 3-point shooting team, and will get nothing against the 22nd ranked 3-point defense. Mizzou doesn't turn it over, and forces quite a few (12th and 8th, respectively). The problem for Memphis is that they ran into a solid defensive team (Mizzou-8th, Memphis-1st), and they struggle scoring (only 157 in effective FG%). Memphis can slow down Mizzou, but Mizzou makes the most of east possession by not turning it over, and have the 18th most efficient offense. It will be close, but Mizzou should take this.

ELITE EIGHT

EAST

1 Pitt vs. 2 Duke - Again, the difference here will be Blair gobbling up offensive rebounds. As of now its well documented how well Pitt rebounds offensively (1st in O-Rebounding percentage), but Duke is 181 in O-Rebounding percentage allowed. Another factor that pushes this game in Pitt's favor is that Duke gets 23% of their points from the stripe (60th in the nation). Thats not a whole lot, but in games like this it matters that Pitt is 50th in the nation in opponent's FTA/FGA. Duke won't get as many points as it would like from the stripe, Blair will rebound all over an overmatched Singler or Lance Thomas, and Pitt will take this game.

SOUTH

1 UNC vs. 3 Syracuse - Two teams with similar styles and similar personell, UNC takes this because of Hansbrough. Yes, last round Griffin couldn't win it for Oklahoma, but Hansbrough wins this because he, along with Davis and Thompson, will gobble up boards on both ends against 'Cuse. Carolina is 8th in O-rebounding percentage and 117th in O-Rebounding percentage allowed. 'Cuse is only 68th in O-rebounding percentage and 289th in O-Rebounding percentage allowed. Yes, Griffin also will rebound like nuts, but the UNC bigs will have help. Lawson-Flynn will be a great battle, but Lawson can hang with Flynn defensively, and Ellington can answer Devendorf shot for shot. Green should take this one over as well as 'Cuse doesn't have an answer for him defensively (Rautins?). UNC should finally topple the mighty Orange.

MIDWEST

4 Wake Forest vs. 3 Kansas - Unfortunately our Deacs' run ends here. Kansas can throw a zone at Wake if need be, and have the 7th best 2-point defense. Wake relies on 2-point buckets and Kansas should be able to slow them down. Kansas is one of the most well rounded teams in the tournament, scoring 26% of their buckets behind the arc, 52.8% of their buckets within the arc, and 21% from the stripe. Wake gets 62% of their points from within the arc, and shoot 54% in there. The issue for the Deacs is that while they are good defensively all over the court, so is Kansas, and Kansas can score from all over the court, while Wake can not.

WEST

1 UConn vs. 3 Missouri - Mizzou will take care of the ball, but rely on buckets in the paint too much to win this game. They shoot 36% from beyond the arc, but like Washington, aren't used to being blocked inside (13th in Block percentage offensively). Thabeet can and will block anyone. DeMarre Carroll is great, but he isn't DeJaun Blair, and can be stopped by Thabeet. Leo Lyons is also a stud, but has the task of beating Jeff Adrien. UConn is much taller than Mizzou, (57th v. 2nd) and more experience (34 v. 175). Mizzou had a good run, but it ends here.

FINAL FOUR

1 Pitt vs. 1 UNC - The two most efficient offensive teams in the nation match up here. UNC's strength defensively is not allowing opponent's to shoot free throws (6th in opponents FTA/FGA). This won't hurt Pitt as only 17% of their points come from the stripe. I don't see Blair dominating Hansbrough on the boards, but he should get his fair share of second chance points. UNC is 117th in O-Rebounding percentage allowed and 8th in O-Rebounding percentage. Pitt's ranks are 1 offensively and 27 defensively. Pitt doesn't turn it over, but doesn't force turnovers and have the 21st ranked 2-point shooting percentage. UNC doesn't turn it over, but doesn't force them either, and has the 54th ranked 2-point defense. Effective FG%: Pitt's is 53.4, UNC's is 52.7. UNC allows opponents to a 47.2 Effective FG%; Pitt's is 46.9. I just think Pitt is the stronger all around team at this juncture, and they take it.

1 UConn vs. 3 Kansas - Thabeet will keep the Jayhawks out of the paint and should be able to stop Aldrich down low. A.J. Price will be able to contain Collins in a battle of great PGs. However, the rest of the lineup tips the Huskies' direction. Kansas gets 21% of their points from the stripe, and UConn only allows opponents to get 14% of their points there. That will hurt the Jayhawks. Also, UConn allows the 4th lowest 2-point FG%, and Kansas shoots 52.4% within the arc, so they will be hurt there as well. That said, Kansas' defense within the arc is also staunch, 7th nationally. I think the difference in this game is Jeff Adrien; Kansas starts three guys 6-3 or shorter, and while Marcus and Markieff Morris are strong, 6-9 players off the bench, they are only freshmen and Adrien should be able to take care of them offensively. The difference between this game and the Wake-Kansas game is taht UConn can shoot over any zone Kansas throws at it (35% from deep) whereas Wake cannot, and Kansas can use a zone to hide their lack of size.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

1 Pitt vs. 1 UConn - This has already happened twice, and you always hear the "don't wanna play the same team three times" adage, but I don't think it matters here. Blair negates anything Thabeet throws at him, and might be the only man in the country who can score on Thabeet in the paint. Levance Fields and A.J. Price are a wash. Biggs and Adrien will battle, with Adrien getting some buckets, but Biggs containing him for the most part. The problem that UConn has with PItt is, who guards Sam Young? They don't have anyone to stop Young. Obviously A.J. Price guards Fields, and the bigs guard each other down low. That leaves 6-3 Austrie and 6-1 Kemba Walker. Neither one matches up well against the 6-6 Young. As you may have noticed, there are no stats here. This is because these teams negate each others stats, as we have seen. Pitt doesn't overpower on the offensive boards against UConn because of Adrien and Thabeet, but UConn doesn't control the lane against Pitt because of DeJuan Blair. I see Young going nuts in this game and capping an under appreciated career with 25 points in an 85-78 win against the Huskies.