SB Nation - North Carolina Tar Heels

RPI WATCH: 12/20/09

BracketCat — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 05:00:18 -0000

Well, the Cats did what they needed to do, and survived to fight another day as Upset Saturday claimed numerous other victims.

In a fair world, the AP Top 15 that comes out tomorrow would look something like this:

Texas (10-0)
Kansas (10-0)
Kentucky (11-0)
Purdue (10-0)
Syracuse (11-0)
West Virginia (8-0)
Duke (9-1)
Villanova (10-1)
Michigan State (9-2)
Connecticut (7-2)
Kansas State (10-1)
Georgetown (8-1)
Ohio State (9-2)
New Mexico (12-0)
Ole Miss (10-1)

It will be interesting to see what the pollsters, in all their wisdom, come up with.

P.S. Did I call that Wichita State upset or what? Booyah!

Current Kansas State AP Ranking = 17

Current Kansas State Record = 10-1

Current Kansas State RPI = 1

Current Kansas State SOS = 3

Great Wins (RPI 1-50) = Loyola, Dayton, IUPUI, Xavier, UNLV

Solid Wins (RPI 51-100) = Washington State, Alabama

Bad Losses (RPI 101 or greater) = none

Loyola (7-2, 1-1) | RPI = 45
Western Illinois (4-6, 0-2) | RPI = 320
Boston (4-6) | RPI = 146
No. 20 Ole Miss (10-1) | RPI = 24: Win over Centenary (108-64)
Dayton (8-2) | RPI = 31: Win over Presbyterian (71-52)
IUPUI (9-3, 2-0) | RPI = 50: Win over Duquesne (73-64)
No. 14* FHSU (8-1)
Washington State (9-2) | RPI = 83: Win over Portland State (93-69)
Xavier (6-4) | RPI = 47: Loss at No. 21 Butler (69-68)
UNLV (10-1) | RPI = 34: Win over SCUU (88-58)
Alabama (7-4) | RPI = 92: Loss to No. 17 Kansas State (87-74)
UAPB (0-9) | RPI = 260: Loss at Missouri (88-70)
Cleveland State (4-8, 0-2) | RPI = 247: Loss to No. 6 West Virginia (80-78)
South Dakota (6-4) | RPI = 139
Missouri (7-3) | RPI = 179: Win over UAPB (88-70)
No. 23 Texas A&M (9-2) | RPI = 15: Win over The Citadel (71-50)
Colorado (6-4) | RPI = 229
No. 2 Texas (10-0) | RPI = 6: Win over No. 10 North Carolina (103-90)
Oklahoma State (9-1) | RPI = 42
Baylor (8-1) | RPI = 72
No. 1 Kansas (10-0) | RPI = 20: Win over Michigan (75-64)
Nebraska (8-2) | RPI = 163: Win over Jackson State (57-41)
Iowa State (7-3) | RPI = 155
Oklahoma (8-3) | RPI = 117: Win over Northern Colorado (80-79)
No. 16 Texas Tech (9-1) | RPI = 33: Loss at Wichita State (85-83)

*Division II Top 25

Raycom ACC Basketball Power Poll Ballot, week 6

DrB — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 02:54:08 -0000

More photos » by Brett Flashnick - AP

1 day ago: Clemson forward Jerai Grant dunks against College of Charleston during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, Dec. 19, 2009, at Littlejohn Coliseum in Clemson, S.C. (AP Photo/Brett Flashnick)

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Sponsored by the Raycom Maryland blog & Testudo Times we'll be ranking the ACC teams each week. Feel free to complain and argue with how we rank 'em.

ACC Weekly scores

1. Duke - Fresh off a 76-41 drubbing of Gonzaga and a sound thumping of Gardner-Webb, we have to move them up to the top spot.

2. UNC - last week's #1 moves down after being out-efforted by Texas. I watched it and it seemed like they were totally outmatched and played terribly sloppy. Plus, Roy is a bitch.

3. FSU - Whether I think Clemson is better or not seems irrelevant, they just defeated Georgia Tech in Atlanta in OT, so they've beaten someone in the ACC on the road and deserve it. They also defeated Auburn (who beat UVA) and Georgia State this week.

4. Georgia Tech - beat UT-C, Arkansas Pine-Bluff, and lost to FSU in OT at home.

5. Clemson - beat Furman, ECU on the road, and CofC pretty soundly.

6. Wake Forest - will have beaten NC State at home, UNC-Wilmington and Elon

7. Maryland - difficult to get a good read on exactly where to put the Terps. Their 3 losses have been to Cinci, 'Nova, and Wisconsin.

8. V. Tech - Beat Penn State last week, Charleston Southern this week

9. Miami - beat Stetson and FAU soundly

10. NC State - loses to Wake on the road, beat Elon by 3. Also beat Auburn earlier this year. Hard to get a great read on them so far.

11. BC - lost to Rhode Island 80-69, beat Bryant....wherever the hell that is. However they have beaten Miami 61-60 in Mass.

12. Virginia - is pretty bad.

Last week's rankings

12/19 Game Links

SFBE.NF — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 16:02:56 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

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The Pac 10 is alive! USC routs Tennessee

Kansas handles Michigan; Xavier Henry also a pretty good freshman

Texas scores easy and often, tops UNC in Jerry Jones Dome

West Virginia tests road waters, escapes with win over Cleveland St.

Hoyas stay on campus, lose to Old Dominion

Duke routs Gonzaga at Cameron Indoor North

Richmond gets first true road win, upsets Florida

UMASS shocks Memphis in some sort of John Calipari Invitational

'Horns Stars Shine Bright in 103-90 Victory over Heels

txtwstr7 — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 01:17:35 -0000

In one of the more entertaining basketball games of the past few years, 39,000 fans watched the Texas Longhorns run away from the talented UNC Tar Heels in a 103-90 victory at JerryWorld. While this recap is technically supposed to analyze this game by itself, I'd prefer to look at this game in the larger picture of the overall season. We've talked a lot about how the ultimate goal is to get this talented roster playing to its potential by the end of the season. While today's game wasn't a total virtuoso performance--especially on the defensive end--Texas demonstrated a lot of the qualities that made this team a preseason favorite to reach the Final Four. With the exception of Jordan Hamilton, our best players shined under the spotlight of today's match-up and showcased the strengths of their respective talent sets. Negating another potential concern, Texas didn't show any stage fright and took it to the Heels from the tip-off until the final whistle. This didn't look like the team that sleepwalked their way through the the first half of games against some cupcakes. Not at all.

Along those same lines, one of the more fascinating parts of today's victory represents its validation of the significant steps taken forward by J'Covan Brown and Avery Bradley. The calm, cool, and collected performances from the two freshmen stand in stark contrast to their out-of-control (Brown) and tepid (Bradley) offensive performances from earlier in the season. Brown and Bradley each poured in over 20 points today, and both of them could have easily gone for 25 apiece. Unfortunately, as we'll discuss in detail below, Jordan Hamilton had perhaps his worst game of the season and represents the current enigma on the roster.

After the jump, we provide a quick recap of the game before breaking down some of the individual efforts...this was a lot of fun.

Game Recap: Despite coming out of the gate with a lot of gusto, Texas started off cold from the field and fell into an early 8-4 hole at the first TV timeout. Starting off 2-9 from the field, Texas--and especially Avery Bradley--missed some open looks, leading some fans to immediately speculate that the potential depth perception issues might cause problems today for the 'Horns. Buoyed by a spark from J'Covan Brown off the bench, Texas corrected its shooting woes and started killing the Tar Heels on the offensive glass, which continued for the rest of the game. In one of the more remarkable stats from today's game, Texas had TWENTY-SIX offensive rebounds that led to 27 second-chance points. Leading into the final TV timeout, the first half turned into an up-tempo, see-saw battle between two highly-talented teams. I got several text-messages during the game admiring the talent of both teams, and the athleticism, length, and (insert Jay Bilas made-up adjective here) for both rosters was pretty remarkable.

With 2:43 left in the first half, the Horns were up 41-37, but then ran away from UNC during one of their best stretches of basketball of this season. During a 13-4 run to close the first half--since when does THAT happen--Texas grabbed five offensive rebounds, forced three turnovers, and got an unexpected line-drive 3-pointer from Gary Johnson. In one of the more memorable plays of the season, Avery Bradley stole an inbounds pass with 2 seconds left and laid it in right before the final buzzer. Despite facing the formidable frontcourt of UNC, Texas outscored the Tar Heels 32-20 in the paint and appeared poised to blow the game wide open.

At the start of the second half, it appeared that was exactly what was going to happen. After a few quick baskets, Texas pushed its lead out to 65-48 and looked to be in complete control of the game. Despite making some headway into the big lead, UNC couldnt get within closer than 8 points, as Texas always was able to respond. Then, after Rick Barnes took out Damion James and Dexter Pittman, UNC went on a quick 5-0 run to cut the lead down to 6. The two seniors were immediately inserted back into the game. After another UNC basket, Texas was only up 82-78 and appeared to be holding on for dear life with 7:00 to go. During the middle stretch of the second half, Texas gave up a ton of easy looks to the Tar Heels, who shot nearly 60% in the second half to keep the game close. I would love to see one of GoBR's patented columns over the defensive breakdowns in the second half.

Faced with true adversity against a top-flight opponent for the first time this season, the veteran leadership of Texas helped salt the game away. Over the next three minutes, Pittman and James scored 9 of our next 11 points to put us up 93-82. The defense was bailed out by several silly UNC turnovers, but, when it mattered most, they were able to hold UNC to 7 points from the 7:00 mark until the 2:00 mark. Closing the game in style, Texas got a final rim-rocking dunk from Sexy Dexy to push the final margin to 103-90.

The outcome was: invigorating. Win or lose, that was a fun game to watch. Both teams were incredibly talented, played hard, and pushed the tempo to an incredible pace. Players for both teams often resorted to putting their hands on their knees in trying to catch a breather during the natural breaks in the game. But, regardless of the aesthetic value of the game, this was a true statement from the Texas Longhorns to the college basketball world. Four years ago, in their first true test of the season, second-ranked Texas was humiliated by the Duke Blue Devils in the infamous "black jersey" game. Regardless of how much this team can still improve--and it's quite a bit--they passed their first true test with flying colors.

Additionally, what a difference a year makes. We just threw down 103 points on North Carolina and have scored over 100 points in three of our last four games. And, as we'll discuss below, Texas *still* hasn't gotten consistent outside shooting. This team is piling up incredible amounts of points and has been able to use their incredible depth and rapid substitution rates to make the necessary adjustments. After today, is anyone still pontificating over our offensive woes from last year?

Stat of the Game: TWENTY SIX offensive rebounds: Despite facing a UNC team chock full of 6-10 robots, Texas grabbed a staggering 26 offensive rebounds during the game. In only 26 minutes, Dexter Pittman grabbed 12 offensive rebounds (15 total) to complement--and largely fuel--his 23 point night. Since I'm going to shortchange him in the next section, I want to highlight Sexy Dexy's line. Against his best competition of the season, Sexy Dex went 23-15 today, along with 2 highlight reel blocks. Pittman's 12 offensive boards were three more than UNC's entire team put together. But Dexy wasn't the only Longhorn who assisted on the offensive glass. Texas got offensive rebounds from EIGHT different players tonight, which is simply a staggering number and accurately reflects the effort from the team today.

The offensive MVP was: J'Covan Brown. Some of you may quibble with this decision, and I admit that it's a bit of a stretch. Unlike some of Texas' previous games where tons of players scored in double-digits, today's game was largely our best players putting the team on their back. Brown, James, Pittman, and Avery Bradley each went over 20 points tonight, while no one else scored more than 25 points. James and Pittman did exactly what we've come to expect them to do, as the two seniors dominated the paint, threw down 13 combined dunks and layups, and combined to make 14 free throws. That's exactly what we want/need them to do. Bradley struggled a bit with his shot, but still finished with 20 points and his usual assortment of rebounds, steals, and assists--he's a keeper.

The reason I'm giving this to J'Covan is because he filled a great void for the team today. With Balbay struggling, Ward injured, and Lucas only being allowed to dip his toes in the water today, Brown stepped up with his best performance of the season. J'Covan did a little bit of everything today. J'Covan nailed 3 three-pointers (with his bunny hop release), grabbed 5 rebounds, and delivered some beautiful passes to streaking teammates. Most importantly, he only turned the ball over twice today, which demonstrates his tremendous growth over the first month of the season. When he plays like he did today, he renders the deficiencies of Balbay and Lucas pretty much irrelevant. Here's to hoping he keeps it up.

The defensive MVP was: Our rebounding effort. This might also be a controversial decision, but I can't find myself to give this award to any of the individual players. Texas' overall dominance on the glass limited UNC to only 11 second-chance points and only 8 fast break points. By getting second and third opportunities on the offensive end--while gobbling up the UNC misses--Texas was able to prevent the UNC racehorses from dominating the game in transition. While I keep bringing it up, it was really, really impressive to watch this team outwork UNC on the glass.

The Curious Case of Jordan Hamilton: Currently the most enigmatic player on the roster, Jordan Hamilton laid a complete egg today. I think the best way to summarize his game today compared to Bradley's came from PB in the game thread.

Jordan...is a truly elite talent. Avery Bradley is a rarely special basketball player.

Jordan had several facepalm moments today, including several ill-advised drives to the basket. Overall, in only 17 minutes, he went 2-10 from the field and turned the ball over twice. I'm starting to think that developing Hamilton is going to become Rick Barnes' biggest challenge for the rest of the season. Without Hamilton being able to lock down the SF spot, we have to start juggling three-guard lineups, mixing in Gary Johnson, or sliding Damion James down to the spot. I drank the Jordan Hamilton Kool-aid during the off-season, and I've been very disappointed with his performance so far.

A Method to the Dexy Substitution Madness?: Everyone has been wondering whether or not Dexy's stamina would hold up in big games. A cursory glance at the box score would only show that he played 27 minutes. What the box score doesn't show is that Dexter played the last 7:41 of today's game. In taking a closer look at Barnes' substitutions today, it appears that the strategy for Dexter involves using TV timeouts to give Dexter extra rest at selected moments.

Check out his substitutions today:

First Half	Second Half
17:41 Out	17:54 Out
15:47 In	16:29 In
13:01 Out	13:21 Out
11:43 In	10:52 In
10:06 Out	9:19 Out
9:26 In	7:41 In
8:01 Out
7:51 In
4:39 Out
2:40 In
2:19 Out

As you can see, Dexter was subbed in immediately after most of the automatic TV timeouts. Dexter was visibly winded at several points in the game today, but I think his substitution pattern allowed him to play the final 7:41. Kudos to Barnes for making this work.

Mason Watch: I gotta give PB some props here. While I was freaking out over Mason being a starter and getting huge minutes in early season games, he has maintained the "wait-and-see" approach. Today proved the prudence of his patience. Mason got a season-low 7 minutes today, which was--by far--his lowest total of the season.

Final Thoughts: Today was a statement game for a team on the rise. While it helps validate the early season ranking and optimism from the team, it must only be analyzed for what it encompasses--one game. Texas has no time to celebrate this big win, as they must immediately prepare for Tuesday Night's showdown against the Michigan State Spartans. I cannot, cannot, cannot give a higher endorsement for the game against Michigan State. If you are a student, do whatever it takes to attend the game. If you want, come find me in the North O-Zone.

We'll know more about this team in 72 hours, but, right now, you have to feel pretty damn good about this basketball team. They may not get the campus hype until we get done with our business in Pasadena, but, after today's win, they officially deserve it.

Hook 'Em!

Texas 103, UNC 90

T.H. — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 21:36:43 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

1 day ago: Fans and media look on as Texas guard Damion James (5) shoots in the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against North Carolina, Saturday, Dec. 19, 2009, in Arlington, Texas. The teams played on a basketball court that was raised roughly two feet off the ground in the first event basketball event at the stadium. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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In the Kentucky game it was three points. Today it was four. That's the margin in each game that UNC had fought back to after being down by double-digit margins for most of the second half. They cut it to four (or three) have the ball and all of the momentum... and the Heels just go stupid. Here are the possessions immediately following UNC cutting the score to 82-78: a missed Larry Drew three that shouldn't have been taken, a Will Graves turnover, a Tyler Zeller layup, a Marcus Ginyard turnover before crossing midcourt, and a Larry Drew turnover. Two minutes and fifteen seconds of clock, and all of a sudden the core is 91-80, Texas. The Heels wouldn't get closer than nine the rest of the way. Pathetic.

Of course, that one stretch isn't what cost Carolina game. It was quite simply the Texas players under the basket snatching rebounds right and left. John Gasaway may not like rebounding margin, but here it tells the entire story. UNC had 37. Texas had 54. 25 of those were offensive rebounds; Dexter Pittman alone had 12 of those (27 overall), more offensive boards than the entire UNC team. The Heels were pushed around like they weren't even there. It doesn't do any good to hold Texas to 41 percent shooting if they just get to keep trying until the ball goes in, and forty percent of their misses found their way back into Longhorn hands.

It's especially frustrating since Carolina was doing so well elsewhere on the court. They had nine blocks and were a remarkable 7 for 13 in three pointers. It was possibly the best game of Dexter Strickland's and Tyler Zeller's young careers. But the turnovers were still there (17, with 11 Texas steals, and Texas doesn't typically steal the ball) , Deon Thompson was a complete no-factor, and every rebound seemed to find its way into Dexter Pittman's hands. Roy Williams can't be happy with this performance, which goes against everything he likes to see in a performance. The team can't be happy, especially Marcus Ginyard, who seemed to have the weight of the entire team on his back at the end. It's another brutal loss against a really good team, but it has to grate knowing that a good performance on the boards would have easily flipped this into the win column. Carolina is left with a long Christmas break with a few cupcakes sprinkled here and there on the schedule. I can hope they'll learn from this, and use it come ACC season, but right now the Heels are failing on the national stage more often than they're winning. That's going to have to change.

The Stars Are Bright, the Opponents Not: Deep in the Heart of Texas

T.H. — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 17:37:11 -0000

More photos » by Jack Plunkett - AP

8 days ago: Texas' Damion James brings down a rebound against Texas State during an NCAA college basketball game in Austin, Texas, on Saturday, Dec. 12, 2009. Texas won 87-54. (AP Photo/Jack Plunkett)

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There are two schools of thought on how to introduce a young team to the rigors of college basketball. Roy Williams has chosen one way, to throw a series of quality opponents at his team and hope they improve against the stiff competition. It appears Texas tried to do the same, signing up for the CBE Classic that had them facing Iowa and Pittsburgh, and scheduling Southern California a week later. Their opponents haven't provided the necessary challenge, though – only Pittsburgh (and also rans Long Beach St. and Western Carolina) cracked Ken Pomeroy's Top 100. The Longhorns haven't payed down to their competition, winning their nine games by an average of 31 points, and having no game end closer than 16. They've got the most efficient defense in the country, and a top 15 offense. How good are they really?

Pretty good. The defense is built around two senior big men, Dexter Pittman and Damion James. Pittman is a shotblocker the Heels rarely see outside of practice, currently 15th in the country in possession adjusted blocks. (For comparison, DeMarcus Cousins is 17th, and Ed Davis 58th.) The two are also good for most of the team's rebounds, but it's defensing the ball where they excel. No team is better at defending the two. For that matter, only Florida is better at defending the three. It is extremely difficult to score against the Longhorns.

There are only two bright sides for the Heels when they have the ball. The first is their height. After Pittman (6'10') and James (6'7"), only a pair of 6'7" underclassmen get a significant playing time in the paint. The Heels have a big height advantage that Texas will counter with the typical Rick Barnes rough style of play, but UNC can rotate quite a few people in the paint and run them hard. Taking Pittman out of the game through fouls or exhaustion will go along way for getting Carolina the lead.

The other glimmer of hope is that the Texas defense is focused more on shot defense and rebounding than turnover generation. Getting the ball inside to Carolina's scorers will still be very difficult, and it's a task that the Heels will often screw up for large stretches of the game, but there won't be the pressure on the perimeter ball handlers UNC had to battle at Kentucky and Syracuse.

On offense, Texas isn't big on the three, although point guard J'Covan Brown is prone to launch the three, and big men James and Jordan Hamilton will also drift out occasionally for the long shot. The true shooting guards, Avery Bradley and Douglas Balbay, are more likely to drive to the hoop than pull up from behind the arc. I have mixed opinions on how well this will succeed. Carolina's big men alter a lot of driving shots simply by virtue of being teheir and being tall; Ohio State was absolutely destroyed in this manner, when combined with poor outside shooting. On the other hand, a quick player used to slicing through giants can make life difficult for the Heels, as we saw in Kentucky. It doesn't help that Rick Barnes likes the same up-tempo style of play as Roy Williams; the Texas defense can get back quickly and force UNC into a half-court set, while a quick offense can get the ball to the hoop before the Heels are fully back in position. Not that positioning is everything. I'd expecting a few more blocks on the run from Davis and Henson today.

It's Davis and Henson I'm most curious about in this game. Davis has yet to truly go off and have a Hansbroughesque performance, and he's due. Henson finally clicked and was a rebound away from his first double-double in seventeen minutes against Presbyterian, but is still a slender newbie in desperate need of a sandwich. If those two and Thompson can step up and play their games against the Texas front line, I have faith that the Heels backcourt, even sans Dexter Strickland, can handle the Longhorns' smaller guards. That's a tall order for a young front line, however, and I'm not fully convinced the Heels can pull it off.

The other X-factor, of course, is Jerry Jones' Taj MaTexas, a cavernous dome hosting it's first basketball game. Anyone watching the Heels' struggles in the Final Fours of the nineties knows how badly a football stadium can throw off an outside shooter. Neither team has a lot of experience in the backcourt. Whichever team solves the riddle of outside shooting in a dome is going to have a significant advantage. (Also whichever team scores more points will most likely win. I swear the insights I have on this game are unbelievably penetrating.)

Texas Basketball Report 3.01 [Texas-UNC Analysis]

Peter Bean — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 13:38:54 -0000

More photos » by Michael Thomas - AP

AB must continue his recent trend of increased assertiveness.

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These three years of law school in the middle of nowhere have made for tough November-Decembers for my Texas basketball fandom. Each year, the same story: enter the school year with a grand plan to keep up with school as the semester progresses, only to spend the entirety of September, October, and November feeding my addiction to college football, such that the week after Thanksgiving I have no choice but to retreat from sports to allow for a full sprint to the semester's finish.

And this year, the Texas Basketball Report makes its latest debut so far, after a full 9 games are in the books. Perhaps no big deal, what with the season getting serious just now, but even this seemingly terrific bit of timing (I completed my last exam 24 hours before today's tip) is warted--my flight home necessitating I get in a cab at 3:30 CT, right as the second half of the game starts heating up. And if you've ever had the displeasure of flying through the South Bend "airport," you know there won't be any catching the tail end on either of the two TV's in the entire building, both of which will be tuned to Fox News.

In any case, the late debut of the TBR is just a symptom of the underlying problem, which is that I love Texas basketball nearly as much, if not equal to, Texas football. You have to understand that my earliest memory as a human being is as a toddler at the Drum; my Pops took his two sons to every home game, every year, even when that meant having to listen to Tom Penders post-game excuses after a loss to Stephen F. Austin. (Seriously. My brother and I still crack jokes about it to this day, adding as a caveat to any personal failure, "Well, you know, the Lumberjacks are gonna be there in March.") In all, I'm sure I attended roughly 15 games every year, from age 5 through 22 (excepting two years when I wasn't living in Austin). I love this stuff. A lot.

So while I'm sure I'll be frustrated this afternoon when I miss the tail end of the game, it won't snuff out the excitement and relief I feel to be thinking and talking about Texas hoops. Best of all, next December I'll be able to join Wiggo among the 5,000 who turn out for a stomping of UT-Pan Am.

The season's first TBR begins after the jump, an abbreviated version serving mostly as a UNC preview, for obvious reasons.

Before the first test. Having caught Pitt, Iowa, and Southern Cal in down years, it's been a particularly manageable opening stretch for the Horns, who through 9 games have faced just three Top 100 opponents (Pitt, Long Beach State, and Western Carolina, who are now 10-1 after beating Louisville last week). While what Texas does in the next three days is more important, the opening run of blowouts isn't to be disregarded as meaningless. It matters much less whether Texas' first 9 manageable games come in succession to open the year or (as in every other Rick Barnes year) sometime after the 11th game, and more how the team disposes of those beatable squads.

The fact is that Texas is walloping lesser teams like no Rick Barnes team ever has, with the possible exception of the Gibson-Aldridge-Tucker 2005-06 squad. There's a reason that when Texas takes the hardwood this afternoon, it will be for their 34th consecutive day atop Ken Pomeroy's Ratings. To put that in perspective, consider, first of all, that--as far as I know, and I've been a religious devotee of KP's work since its inception--Texas has never been the #1-rated team. And second, though the manageable schedule has helped Texas maintain astronomical ratings, consider that they've thus far managed to outperform Kansas, whose own schedule has been even softer than Texas's.

All of which is to say that regardless of what happens in the next two games, the manner by which Texas is throttling lesser teams tells us important things, as well. Hopefully they'll do better with their December tests than did the 2005-06 squad (Black Saturday in East Rutheford and the disastrous loss in Austin a week later, to Chris Lofton and Tennesse).

Okay, so yeah: now it's on. Nice as it is to see Texas killing the weak, it's still anyone's guess how this group will perform against a team that can match them in size, depth, and athleticism. And whereas UNC will represent the first test of Texas's season, today's contest will be the Tar Heels' fourth against Top 50 competition. Both teams are young, but at this point in the season, Texas is decidedly greener.

Of most concern will be the team's performance in the half court offense, which has yet to face resistance as meaningful as it will today. If Texas is settling for long, contested jump shots early and often, we'll have a good idea about the answer to the question of whether the team still has a steep learning curve in front of it.

Battle of the bigs. Last week when I was sending over questions to Carolina March, I made a sloppy error and wound up asking him a question about whether UNC would struggle at all to bang with Texas physically. The Tar Heels are, of course, as physically imposing a squad as there is in the country, with a small army of Ents to patrol the paint, including five players 6-10 or taller. None may be quite as Sexy as Pittman (who is?), but he's flying solo into this battle, creating what could very well be a potentially determinative factor in the game: The easiest Texas win to envision involves 25-30 minutes of Sexy basketball, while the easiest loss to picture foresees long stretches on the bench with foul trouble. (I certainly agree it's as critical a factor as there is in this game, but as I'll discuss in a bit, I'm at least as interested in whether two different Texas players show up with their A-games.)

What strategic approach do you take if you're coaching this game? If I'm Rick Barnes I want to get the best of both worlds--effective half court possessions when we need them (running things through Pittman), and as much up-tempo full-court play as UNC allows. I want Brown, Bradley, Hamilton, and Balbay operating in space, and I'm worried about how well they'll perform against the Heels' length in a half court game.

On the flipside, then, it'll be interesting to see whether Roy Williams intends to make us "prove it" in a controlled, half court game. UNC likes to get out and run on the secondary break, which isn't a bad thing in and of itself, but would mitigate substantially their potential advantage in the paint.

The name of the game is distribution. Finally, if there's a second big worry I have about this match up it's that I could see Texas floundering haphazardly from a domino effect of poor distribution. It could happen any number of ways, but here's one: Imagine that Dogus neutralizes himself with hesitation to penetrate, and Pittman is either unavailable with fouls or smothered by UNC's defensive focus on him. What's the offense? With this group, there definitely exist other approaches Texas could emphasize and thrive in, but at least as likely the bad dominoes could continue falling, starting with Damion James trying to do more on his own, which not only would marginalize the tremendous value James produces from his targeted game, but would prevent Texas from settling into any of the healthy approaches that put the young scorers in positions to succeed. Before long--with at this point Texas almost assuredly behind in the game--there's no coherent operation at all and we start to see a lot of individual attempts to get a shot off. Most would be bad shots. And the train is off the tracks.

Implicit in the example I gave is concern that Texas will have a plan for this game and the young guys will defer too much to it if that plan goes south for any reason. My focus here will be on Dogus and Bradley, who if hesitant and passive have the capacity to severely hamstring our offense. Inversely, of course, I see in good games from them precisely the kind of perimeter attackers you need to get out in front of the Tar Heels. I'll just call it now and hope for the best (or that I'm wrong): If Balbay and Bradley are assertive, forceful creators--pushing the full court at any good opportunity and, in half court sets, attacking the paint with purpose--Texas wins, and feasibly by a comfortable margin. If they both struggle and hesitate, I expect other dominoes will fall and they aren't the kind a Rick Barnes team is great at correcting mid-game--UNC wins it.

PREDICTION: Texas 77 UNC 71

Ask The Enemy: Texas vs North Carolina

Peter Bean — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 02:50:26 -0000

More photos » by Michael Thomas - AP

He is big. He is sexy. Dexter Pittman is Big Sexy.

Browse more photos »

Texas faces by far their stiffest of the season on Saturday when they travel to Jerryworld to battle North Carolina on the hardwood (1:00 CT, ESPN). I asked Carolina March to help prep us on the Tar Heels. Our Q&A is below.

We'll get to the game momentarily, but first: In 2007-08, had no one defected early to the NBA, Texas could have sent out the following starting line up:

PG: DJ Augustin (Sophomore)
SG: Daniel Gibson (Senior)
G/F: Kevin Durant (Sophomore)
F: PJ Tucker (Senior)
C: LaMarcus Aldridge (Senior)

I'm certain early attrition has prevented North Carolina from fielding an equally jaw-dropping line up. Give us the Tar Heels' equivalent (from the last 10 years or so), and give us your take on the match up with our Dream Team.

Carolina March: One of the keys to UNC's success the past couple of year's is that they've kept players for three to four years, so the ideal, nobody-defects teams aren't that much different from what you actually saw on the court. So yeah, a 2006 team that kept the core of the previous year's national championship squad (Sean May, Rashad McCants, Raymond Felton and Marvin Williams) and added Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green and Marcus Ginyard would be pretty awesome. As would the 2007 and 2008 squads, which would take Hansbrough, Green, Ginyard and Williams and add Brandan Wright, Ty Lawson, and Wayne Ellington. If nobody graduates, there's a solid three years where UNC fields a team with six or more NBA players.

But Carolina fans have also lived through seasons like 1993-1994, where a championship team returned everybody but George Lynch and then added freshmen Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace, and Jeff McInnis, only to have the team deliver the earliest NCAA tournament exit in fifteen-plus years. So I'll take what we got, two national championships in five years and a host of good performances in between.

UNC has played three Top 40 teams already, defeating Ohio State (77-73) and Michigan State (89-82), while dropping a pair to Syracuse (87-71) and Kentucky (68-66). The Longhorns, meanwhile, haven't even played a Top 50 team yet. Two related questions, then: First, it has appeared to me that UNC has been improving along the way -- is that fair to say? And second, do you expect the tougher competition (and improvement along the way) to be a meaningful advantage for UNC?

Carolina March: The team has definitely improved, and I do think the level of competition has played a big part in that. With a team as young as this one – at least five freshman get significant playing time – I don't think sheltering them for the first half of the season with a diet of cupcakes would have been very helpful. How it will help them over the entire season is debatable; it may only gain them a couple of early wins in the ACC as they're more up to speed, or it may have no effect whatsoever. Even if it's the latter, I'd still prefer this type of scheduling, as games against Kentucky and Texas are much more fun to watch as a fan than having the team be undefeated and higher ranked at the end of December.

How this scheduling will help against Texas is less clear. I'd like to think that the Longhorns inexperience coupled with Carolina's scheduling gives them a great opportunity to come out strong, put Texas on their heels and watch them self-destruct as they've failed to encounter serious competition so far this season. But I thought the same thing about Kentucky, and they handled an early UNC barrage without batting an eye, and went on to win. Rick Barnes seems pretty good at keeping his players focused.

How good is Ed Davis? Like, does his badassage make you snicker a little when you think about other teams not having Ed Davis? And most importantly, is he as Sexy as Dexter Pittman? Thoughts on this match up? Does he have the strength at 225 to deal with Big Sexy?

Carolina March: First of all, please never use the words "Big" and "Sexy" in conjunction in an e-mail to me again. [No deal. --ed] Now, the baddassage of Ed Davis has for the most part been hidden under a bushel this season. He's played well, but there's an expectation that he'll completely take over a game, and so far that hasn't been the case. Some of that's due to the fact that the current system makes it difficult to put everything in the hands of one big man, and there's also the fact that in following Tyler Hansborough, the fans' expectations may be a little to high for any sophomore to live up to. Either way, it feels like he's on the cusp of truly destroying a big-name opponent, and everyone's on the edge of their seats waiting for that to happen, rather than just enjoying the moment.

The interesting thing about matching up with Pittman is that it probably won't be Ed Davis on him most of the time. Deon Thompson is the bigger body, and there's a string of players 6'10" and taller coming off the bench, all with different strengths. I'd expect the Heels to keep throwing different bodies at Pittman on both ends of the court to keep him off guard and hopefully push him into foul trouble early.

We know that UNC plays fast, but at the moment it seems to be coming at the expense of a pretty poor turnover rate. Tell us about UNC's tempo and style of play, and the turnovers issue?

Carolina March: Rapid play has always lead to more turnovers, and it's a trade-off for the most part that Roy Willams has been willing to expect. An errant pass on a fast break is no worse than failing to get an offensive rebound on a set play, and as long as it doesn't lead to fast break in the opposite direction, there's little harm done. That being said, UNC has given up more steals than I would like, which was particularly deadly against Syracuse and Kentucky. They're a young team still working out some kinks, but a good defensive team can take advantage of that pretty easily.

There's no question that the Tar Heels have more than enough speed and athleticism to play with Texas, but I wonder about whether they're prepared for Texas' exceptionally physical style of play. We're not talking Big East Brute-icism here, but the Longhorns don't mind banging and play intense, physical defense. Does UNC neutralize that with their speed? How did you think they fared against a similarly physical and defensive-minded Kentucky squad?

Carolina March: I don't think the speed really does neutralize anything, especially since Carolina likes to run off of defensive rebounds. If Texs beats them up enough inside that they can't get those rebounds, the Heels are in trouble. What you may be underestimating is the sheer number of players Carolina can rotate into the post. They've got six players who can legitimately play center (Thompson, Davis, Zeller, Henson, and the two Wear brothers) and although many of them are young and not all that muscular - Henson in particular could use a couple hundred sandwiches - their height and fresh legs could draw the Texas big men into serious foul trouble. Don't forget, Rick Barnes once had to finish a game against UNC with only four players on the court the foul situation was so dire.

[You're absolutely right that I underestimated the Tar Heels size (and by a lot), although equally to blame was writing questions for UNC and MSU at the same time, during which I completely mixed up the size of UNC. In any case, it makes all the difference in the world for how UNC can, and perhaps should, play Texas. --ed]

Give us four signs -- two positive, two negative -- that, upon seeing them develop in the game, will make you cackle with delight / cringe in fear about the outcome.

Carolina March: Early frustration on the faces of Texas players will be the most promising sign, whether by denying them rebounds, dragging them into foul trouble early, or just altering shots with height the Longhorns aren't used to seeing. Couple that with good outside shooting early to prevent Texas from collapsing on the inside on defense, and I'll be thrilled right off the bat. On the other hand, if UNC can't get the ball inside without putting in the opposing teams' hands, I'll begin to cringe. And if they go into full-out panic mode, with rushed shots, poor ball movement, and the stretches of play that killed them against Syracuse and Kentucky, well, I'll be hiding my head under a pillow by the second half.

The Big Blue Daily Mail -- Wildcats vs. the World Edition

Truzenzuzex — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 00:04:47 -0000

I bumped into this Gregg Doyel article down in the FanShots, and thought it deserved a bit more commentary.

I have to admit, I used to really loathe Doyel, but over the past couple of years, he has grown on me. I can't really put my finger on it, he really hasn't been that much different -- maybe I'm just getting less sensitive to sarcasm in my old age and learning to appreciate it more. Embracing the hate, as it were.

Well, this is certainly no hate piece, at least, not directed at Kentucky, or Calipari. In fact, it's just the kind of thing I might write if I actually, you know, had a sense of humor. Here are a couple of excerpts:

The media would hate it [Kentucky going undefeated], but that makes me want it even more. Media groupthink has decided John Calipari is a bad guy, but media groupthink also decided Texas should play Alabama for the college football championship, and that the running back from Alabama is the best player in the country. Media groupthink is silly.

I have often thought the very same thing. Media groupthink is silly, sometimes even extremely harmful, and the thought of angering the media by watching a sacred cow or three get brutally slaughtered and eaten raw really warms the cockles of my heart.

As a bonus, we would also get to watch the cranial conflagrations of opposing fans or just plain UK haters who are dying to see Coach Cal fail, or find some tiny shred of moral turpitude to justify a "See! I told ya so!" Watching both the media and their cognitively dissonant acolytes spray gray mater all over their basement and/or cubicle wall is, to paraphrase the Grinch, "A sight I really must see." But as Doyel says, I'm not predicting it -- just wishing for it.

More after the jump.

Another graf I really like:

Imagine, then, this coach winning the national title this year -- and not losing a game along the way. Kentucky would replace Bob Knight's 1976 Indiana Hoosiers as the last team to go undefeated. From his perch at ESPN, Knight would be miserable. From its perch in Indianapolis, the NCAA would be miserable. Memphis would hate it. Louisville would hate it. Indiana wouldn't believe it. The media would moan.

And what sweet, sonorous music that would make! The mind fairly boggles at the prospect of the angst and anguish of Louisville fans. And Indiana fans? Oh, my. We'd have to bring the Kentucky National Guard with us next time we went to Bloomington for a game. The gnashing of teeth from Tobacco Road would be audible all the way to Pauley Pavilion.

Thanks, Gregg. Yeah, it's just a dream.

But it's a good dream.

Now, for the news:

UK commit injured
Fortunately, it should be minor. Just a concussion, although those can be a real problem.
College football notes: Dec. 17 - Sports - Kentucky.com
Central Michigan is usually a reliable place to find good coaches, much like Western Kentucky in basketball.
Basketball Prospectus | Articles | Around the Rim: Texas About to Get Tested
Junior point guard Jai Lucas will make his Texas debut Saturday as he becomes eligible after transferring from Florida. He is the son of former NBA point guard and coach John Lucas.

Texas Longhorns vs. the North Carolina Tar Heels. Must see TV, in my book.
Wildcats Thunder Blog: Kentucky vs Austin Peay......A Preview
Mashburn to return for Kentucky’s bid for 2,000 basketball victories | courier-journal.com | The Courier-Journal
Awesome! Mashburn was the biggest recruit to come to Kentucky in my lifetime, and what a great player he was. I forgot just how great until I watched the Kentucky Wildcats vs. the Georgia Bulldogs from back in 1993 the other night. I sure would love to have him back.
Man falls into pit in Kentucky cave, dies | courier-journal.com | The Courier-Journal
Prayers for the family.
Kentucky Sports Radio " Blog Archive " Newton Figured To Start in Nashville
Key transfers finally eligible - Beyond the Arc - msnbc.com
Three top teams get a lot stronger.
What’s going to happen with Liggins? | Vaught's Views
Calipari seems bent on not publicly discussing personnel issues. I agree that at some point, it might make more sense for Liggins to transfer if Cal is just going to treat him like a victory cigar. But I suspect otherwise.
The Big Blue Nation Report: Just a little Christmas Jingle
Heh. Not bad ...
Lawyer: Ex-Connecticut Huskies student manager at center of recruiting allegations has not spoken to NCAA - ESPN
A lawyer for the man at the center of recruiting allegations against the University of Connecticut says his client has not spoken to investigators.
NCAA Tournament: If It Ain't Broke.. | College Basketball by Collegehoops.net
The NCAA Tournament is the single greatest event in American sports. It is three weeks of complete saturation of the best college basketball has to offer, with each game an elimination game, with each game coming one step closer to a championship.

The argument against expanding the tournament. Pretty compelling. But it’s not great because there are a lot of teams playing. It’s great because there are a lot of good teams playing. 31 teams are there because they won their conference championship – they earned their way in. The others represent (in theory) the 34 best teams remaining.
Around the Top 25: Ohio State beats Presbyterian; Thad Matta doesn’t eject any fans | College Hoops Journal
Ouch. How's that phiz feelin' today, Roy?
After long hiatus, Caracter shows signs he could salvage career - NCAA Division I Mens Basketball - CBSSports.com
UTEP is 5-0 without Derrick Caracter.

And 0-2 with him.

That's what many will mention about Caracter's return to college basketball, and I suppose it's fair to mention because, well, it's true. The record doesn't lie. There's no way around it. But as someone who sat courtside and watched Caracter get 15 points and 15 rebounds in 32 minutes against Ole Miss, I can tell you with a degree of certainty that he's not the reason UTEP lost its past two games.

Wouldn't it be sooooo droll if UTEP wound up playing U of L sometime this year? Caracter vs. Pitino? Oh, I would absolutely love to see that happen.

Please, NIT committee, make that happen. :-)
Tyler Hansbrough, Jonny Flynn shaped decade in college hoops - 2000s: The Decade in Sports - SI.com
BEST COACHING RIVALRY: John Calipari vs. Bruce Pearl Calipari has been at loggerheads with lots of coaches over the years, from Lou Carnesecca to John Chaney to Jim Calhoun to his current doppelganger at Louisville, Rick Pitino. But the state of Tennessee was truly not big enough for both Pearl and Calipari, whose constant jabs at each other in the media, on the recruiting trail and on the court made for great theater. The rivalry crested on Feb. 23, 2008, when Pearl's Vols, who were ranked No. 2 in the country, edged top-ranked and undefeated Memphis 66-62.

I hope it goes from "best" to "epic."
3-Pointers: Krzyzewski backs tournament expansion - Mike DeCourcy - College Basketball - Sporting News
Most important, getting into the tournament wouldn't mean much if 96 teams were admitted. It's like being invited to your class reunion. You graduated, they found your address, so you get a letter. It doesn't mean you were popular.

That's my main concern.
Sprints Is Interested In Hiring a Florida Assistant // 12.17.09 - Team Speed Kills
Even more expansion talk - this time Pac Ten gets in on the action - Block U
Expansion talk in the PAC-10.
Could Big Ten Expansion Force the SEC to Bring In a New School? - Dawg Sports
Kyle King has thoughts on any possible SEC expansion. I would not want the Cardinals in the SEC, but Georgia Tech or Clemson would be very solid additions.
Q&A: StatSheet's Robbie Allen - Blogger So Dear
Blogger So Dear interviews StatSheet founder Robbie Allen
" BBL: Josh Selby now considering Arizona John Clay’s Sidelines
John Clay's Big Blue Links.
John Wall: The Best Freshman in College Basketball History?
Intentional Foul " RIP Chris Henry
Very sad. Prayers to the family.
Vaught's Views: UK's Ramon Harris handling challenges of being a new dad: AMNews.com
He’s not a great scorer and knows scoring is not what this team needs from him. Instead, he’s willing — and able — to play defense, rebound and pass. And he hustles. He never seems to get up on a loose ball or long rebound.

Ramon has carved out playing time on a team where very few thought he could. Impressive young man.
Intentional Foul " Royce White Says Adios
Ouch. Not good for the Gophers.

Kentucky Basketball: Rajon Rondo vs. John Wall After Ten Games

Truzenzuzex — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:50:35 -0000

More photos » by Terry Gilliam - AP

How did Rajon Rondo compare with John Wall over his first ten games as a Wildcat?

Browse more photos »

I thought it would be fun to take a look at how Rajon Rondo, now one of the great point guards in the NBA (and surely the best point guard UK had this decade until Wall came along) and John Wall compared after their first ten games as a Wildcat.

Any exercise like this is fraught with factors that simply cannot be properly accounted for, so take this for what it is -- a bit of fun. I suspect a lot of Kentucky Wildcats fans have wondered how the two point guards compared. Both had great starts as freshmen, both starting from the beginning of their time at UK. But the coaching was different, the kind of game UK played under Tubby Smith and John Calipari are very different, and the way Smith and Calipari utilize their point guards is different.

Statistics don't account for that, nor do they account for the skill of the players around them, or the quality of the competition. So we can't take this comparison as holy writ about who was better, or would be better, or who is better in the role of Wildcat lead guard. Still, it is a lot of fun to look at how they stack up against each other, and I think some people may be surprised. In fact, as I write this, I have only completed one comparison, so I will be surprised as well.

Join me after the jump as we compare these two great UK players.

First off, these are "tempo free" stats so we don't have to worry about the fact that Smith tended to play a bit more deliberate game. I will be charting assits%, turnover%, steals%, shot%, eFG%, offensive rebound% and free throw rate%. That includes all the four factors, plus three others.

First, assists:

It seems that Rondo started out hotter in assists than Wall, but at around the fourth game, Wall takes over. You can see that the trend right now favors Wall on this stat, and it's interesting that the flip coincides approximately with much better offensive play by this year's team, and a stretch where the 2005-06 team lost 2 of 4 games.

Second, turnovers:

In this chart, lower is better, of course, and I admit to being a bit surprised to see the trend this way. Keep in mind that a lot of Wall's turnovers can be contributed to a faster pace of play, and even though we are using tempo-free stats, that factor isn't really accounted for here. Despite the fact that the 2005-06 team is entering a dicey stretch of games, Rondo's turnovers certainly weren't the reason they were only .500 in that four-game stretch, as you can see by his trend.

Third, steals:

Rondo set the freshman record for steals in his first year, if I remember correctly, yet at this point, his trend had turned decidedly negative compared to Wall's. Rondo had a couple of really poor games, versus North Carolina and Indiana where he managed no steals at all.

Wall, on the other hand, had two incredible games vs. UNC-Ashville and UConn where he had a very high steals percentage. Can Wall outdo the great Rajon in this category? He sure is on a nice trend right now.

Fourth, percentage of shots:

Wall and Rondo are fairly equal in this area, somewhat to my surprise. It looks like the trend is up for Wall overall, but his last game was a big decline from his high in the UConn game, and represents his second lowest shot% so far this year. At this point, Rondo was also coming off a recent high, which interestingly, was even higher than Wall's.

Fifth, effective FG%:

This is a wild one. Wall is very consistent with his shooting, and has been all year long. Rondo was all over the place, from a high of 81.8% to a low of 11.1%.

Based on what I have seen so far, I doubt we will ever see Wall lower than 35%. I think this will wind up being fairly even over the course of the entire year. Rondo took very few low-percentage shots, and so does Wall, but Wall tends to shoot more (and better) from the perimeter than Rondo did.

Sixth, offensive rebound %:

We all remember Rondo as a fantastic rebounder for his size, and it's obvious looking at this chart that his stats show that in spades. I suspect, but can't prove, that the wild fluctuations in Rondo's stats were as much a function of his teammates has him, and I think the 2009-10 UK club is a much better offensive rebounding team overall than 2005-06. That may be why Rondo's games are so often feast or famine, and Wall appears steadier.

Seventh, free throw rate%:

The final stat we look at is FTR%, and this one also surprised me a bit. Rondo was getting to the line at a significantly higher clip at the 10-game point in 2005-06 than Wall is this year. Part of that is due to the players surrounding him, but Rondo was very aggressive at taking the ball to the glass.

This is perhaps an area that Wall could improve upon. Even in the UConn game, where Wall attacked the glass relentlessly in the second half, he only got to the line about as often as Rondo did on average. It could be that Wall's speed has something to do with that -- you could sometimes catch Rondo on a run-out, but nobody can get close enough to Wall on most run-outs to touch him, let alone foul him.

So there we go, just a few gems to think about while we wait for the Austin Peay Governors game. I like to compare players who have a lot in common, and Rondo has a lot in common with Wall in terms of athleticism, remarkable physical skills, passing ability, and the way they play the game. I think Wall is the more mature player at this point, but Rondo was (and still is) freakishly talented, and has turned into one of the best in the NBA in his position.

I'm confident Wall will be, also.