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In a Perfect World (Conference Realignment)

Evan Pfaff — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 21:30:13 -0000

by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Could a University of Houston QB be soon hoisting the Big 12 Championship trophy? (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

Today the Big Ten conference issued a statement that they are exploring the possibility of expanding.

Every few years we hear the same rumblings and every few years there are articles published about what realignment would look like. But not since Penn State was admitted into the Big Ten has anything official been released. With that, below is the definitive article on the topic.

And even though this is a basketball blog, I will focus on the BCS aspect of realignment to argue my points. I will discuss basketball, though, and all points held for football can loosely translate over to hoops as well.

Currently there are six BCS conferences and those 6 all get automatic BCS-bowl bids. Those conferences are Big East, SEC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-10, ACC. Of those six, three of the conferences have enough football teams to have a conference championship game (the Big East would have enough if more of their charter schools had D1 football programs).

Part of the BCS issue is that you have some conferences without 12 schools, who don't currently have conference championship games. Adding conference championship games will ultimately help the BCS by crowing, on a field, a true conference champ. This will help with BCS bowl bids, and especially the BCS championship game. (Think of a rule where you have to at least win your division to get a BCS bid.

The other BCS issue is of the non-BCS schools and where they should lie. My realignment program take that into account.

Without further ado, after The Jump is the Big12Hoops.com Realignment plan.

MIZZOU MOVES TO THE BIG 10.

Why is this good for the Big 10? By admitting Mizzou into the Big 10, the Big 10 would secure a coveted TV market, namely St Louis. They would also get a share of the Kansas City TV market. By expanding westward, revenues from the Big 10 Network and apparel sales would grow. The Big 10 would also secure a 12^th team and legitimize a conference championship game. The divisions would be as follow:

Big 10 East: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Penn State

Big 10 West: Mizzou, Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa

Under this scenario all regional rivalries remain in tact

Why is this good for Mizzou? The Big 12 seems to forget about schools not named Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Kansas (basketball). There is no television network, so Mizzou's games are generally only regionally shown. There is Big Monday for basketball, but that is mainly reserved for Texas and KU. Under this, Mizzou's football games could be carried on the Big 10 Network and basketball games will be tied into the Big 10 ESPN deal. All this leads to a major recruiting advantage in both revenue generating sports.

Mizzou also has a rival in Illinois that would heat up instantly and the heated rivalry with Kansas will replace the Illinois basketball and football games on the schedules. Instead of St Louis, though, the KU games will be played at the Sprint Center and Arrowhead in KC.

But what about... Iowa State? The Cyclones seem to also be a natural fit and could easily add fuel to the rivalry with in-state foe Iowa Hawkeyes. The problem is that the Big 10 gains little from that arrangement. They are already pretty entrenched in the Hawkeye State and the addition of ISU wouldn't help their regional or national reputation.

THE UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON JOINS THE BIG XII

Why is this good for the Big 12? The University of Houston is a large campus, in a region of Texas that is currently underdeveloped with college sports. Houston is the 4^th largest city in the country, and by planting a team there, the Big 12 will get even more Texas viewership.

The big question would be on alignment, since there will now be 5 Texas schools. My proposal is for

Big 12 "North": Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Big 12 "South": Texas, Houston, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Baylor, Colorado

The division names will have to be rebranded, but adding Colorado to the South is acceptable because Coloradoans joke that there are more Texans in the state than natives.

Why is this good for Houston? Historically, the Cougars have had a good football team, and have won a basketball national championship. Having a Big XII logo on their court will increase their recruiting presence in the city and state and potentially turn them into powerhouse.

But what about... TCU? TCU would be a good choice, if they were bigger. Their 8000 student just wouldn't cut it if the conference wishes to remain the BIG 12. Houston's enrollment is approximately 30,000 students. Commuter school or not, Houston would help retain the "Big" in Big 12.

BYU AND UTAH GO TO THE PAC-10

Why is this good for the Pac-10? By including Utah and BYU into the Pac-10, the conference will have the 12 schools needed for an automatic conference championship games. Both programs have historically legitimate football and basketball programs, and they will bring their rivalry with them. Geographically, they are far enough West to warrant admission into the conference.

The division would be as follows

Pac-10 North: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, BYU, Utah

Pac-10 South: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

Why is this good for BYU and Utah? Both recruit well from the West, and inclusion into the conference will aid that. And by coming over as a pair (and as rivals) they bring legitimacy to the expansion eastward.

But what about... geography? The state of Utah doesn't border any states of current Pac-10 members, and that may cause some issues, but distance isn't really something the conference has ever regarded. Consider that Tucson, AZ to Seattle, WA is 1100 miles, or 400 miles farther than Tucson to Provo, UT.

ADD MORE TEAMS TO THE MOUNTAIN WEST

Why is this good for the Mountain West? As it stands under this scenario, the Mountain West is down to 7 members (the current 9, minus BYU and Utah). To get up with the big boys, the MWC needs to add 5 schools. The 5 that should move to the MWC should be: Boise State, Nevada, New Mexico State, Rice, SMU.

There is already talk of Boise coming over to the MWC, so that is a no brainer. The others are coming over as "rivals" to existing MWC schools. Nevada will face UNLV, New Mexico State will pair with New Mexico, Rice and SMU will pit against TCU is a three-way battle for Texas.

Having 12 schools will allow the conference to host a championship game, matching the winners of each division, which would be as follows:

MWC North: UNLV, Nevada, Air Force, Wyoming, Colorado State, Boise State

MWC South: San Diego State, New Mexico, New Mexico State, TCU, Rice, SMU

Why is this good for the 5 programs? The shift from either the C-USA or WAC will legitimize the programs (see the next point). All will also enter the new MWC with a foe. Everyone wins.

But what about... the MWC still remaining relatively minute as compared to their BCS brethren? Why would these schools shift from one conference to another, just for shits and giggles? See next point.

ADMIT THE MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE BCS

Why is this good for the BCS? Controversy will mainly be avoided. By admitting the redesigned MWC into the BCS you are accepting the current BCS gate crashers. You are bringing in the current at-large schools causing heartache and giving yourself another conference champion that the country can latch onto.

Why is this good for the MWC? Why isn't it good for the MWC?

But what about... the C-USA and WAC? These two conferences are now in shambles. What to do? See next item.

MERGE THE C-USA AND WAC

Why is this good for the two conferences? Because of the success of some of their schools, and regional ability to move, the Conference USA and WAC are currently left in shambles (under this proposal). Essentially afterthoughts as they are, now they are left with 15 schools between them. They could either split them up 8 and 7 or combine forces and form a 15 league mega conference. In terms of basketball, as we have seen with the Big East, and their 16 school hoops conference, too many schools doesn't water down the pool.

But what about... regionality? The C-USA is currently a conglomerate of throw-ins from around the country. Under this plan, that would just increase to a truly national conference. The members of it would be: Fresno St, Hawaii, Idaho, La Tech, San Jose St, Utah St, UTEP, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, Cent Florida, ECU, Marshall, Memphis, Southern Miss

Using the scenario outlined above, 18 schools will change conferences. This sounds like a lot, but as you can see many will be moving as groups and either with or to a rival.

But what about the Big East? Well, the Big East is the one conference I am leaving alone. In their football world, they are lacking the 12 members to create a championship game. But when you include their basketball members, they are a 16-team powerhouse.

One final thought. I reserve the right to claim this entire scenario null and void if Notre Dame ever decides to join the Big 10. If that were to happen, I would still endorse some shifting, but nothing to the extent of this proposal. More on that if a Notre Dame to the Big 10 rumor starts getting some legitimate traction.

Around the Big Ten, post-Challenge.

John M (The Crimson Quarry) — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:46:04 -0000

More photos » by Andy Manis - AP

14 days ago: Wisconsin's Jon Leuer celebrates Wisconsin's 73-69 win over Duke in an NCAA college basketball game Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2009, in Madison, Wis. (AP Photo/Andy Manis)

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While IU played no part in it, and I'm not ordinarily a conference-kumbaya guy, it was refreshing to see the Big Ten finally best the ACC in this made-for-TV event. The current status of the Big Ten is a mixed bag for IU fans. On one hand, after nearly a couple of decades in the wilderness, the conference finally seems to be returning to its last 80s/early90s status as every bit the peer of the ACC: you remember: the Bob Knight/Gene Keady/Tom Davis/Jud Heathcoate/Lou Henson glory days, with occasionally excellent teams at Minnesota, Michigan, and Ohio State as well. Overall, it's a positive development, but it comes at precisely the wrong time for IU's program. The Big Ten is deeper than it has been in a generation, and that will make it difficult for IU to turn its improved play into an improved record.

In any event, here's a quick tour around SB Nation's Big Ten blogs for postgame reaction for both the winners and the losers (Maize n Brew hasn't posted a wrap-up, so I linked to excellent Michigan basketball blog UMHoops.com instead).

First, a quick look at the conference standings. Thanks, Iowa!

Big Ten Conference Standings

(updated 12.3.2009 at 12:57 AM EST)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
Purdue Boilermakers	0	0	6	0
Northwestern Wildcats	0	0	6	1
Ohio St. Buckeyes	0	0	6	1
Wisconsin Badgers	0	0	5	1
Penn St. Nittany Lions	0	0	5	2
Michigan St. Spartans	0	0	5	2
Illinois Fighting Illini	0	0	5	2
Minnesota Golden Gophers	0	0	4	3
Michigan Wolverines	0	0	3	3
Indiana Hoosiers	0	0	3	4
Iowa Hawkeyes	0	0	2	5

Even at this early date, Purdue remains the only undefeated team, and Iowa and IU are the only teams under .500. Will either team end up in the black again this season? Enough with depression and on to the scores.

Wisconsin 73, Duke 69: Of course, this was the signature win of the Challenge. It's appropriate that Duke lost its first Challenge game in the season in which the Big Ten finally prevailed. Bucky's Fifth Quarter:

If the Big Ten was going to win the ACC/Big Ten Challenge for the first time in its 11-year existence, you knew it was going to have to get an unexpected win. Consider it done. Behind Trevon Hughes' 26 points, the Badgers upset No. 5/6 Duke 73-69 Wednesday night at the Kohl Center, spilling a rowdy student section onto the court and starting a celebration that spread across the entire Big Ten conference. The significance of the win was lost on no one, including Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski. "It was a night Wisconsin fans should feel pretty darn proud," he said. "They should feel very proud of their basketball team. Just minutes after UW's win, Ohio State topped Florida State 77-64, giving the conference its first ever victory in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The loss was also the first for Duke in the challenge, which was previously 10-0 in challenge games.

Ohio State 77, Florida State 64: The Buckeyes won the last game of the event and therefore had the honor of clinching the win. WWAHT:

I'll talk about another ridiculous night from Evan Turner in a minute. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the New Jon Diebler. Diebler has been taking smart shots for the better part of the year, but for whatever reason, they weren't falling as consistently as anyone would like. In an interview played early in the game, Thad Matta attributed it to Diebler's ability to deal with expectations; when the crowd inhaled, expecting him to make the big trey, he'd tense up. That's not happening quite so much anymore, and this team is that much better for it. That's two wins in the Big Ten-ACC challenge in a row now for Thad Matta. Last year, the Buckeyes traveled into Miami and scored an upset over the favored 'Canes. This year, the Buckeyes controlled the game almost from the get-go, hitting timely shots, forcing key turnovers and limiting the ability of FSU's big men to affect the tempo of the offense.

North Carolina 89, Michigan State 82: This is the second time that the Challenge has included a rematch of the previous NCAA title game, but unlike IU in 2002, the Spartans could exact no revenge. The Only Colors was disappointed in more than the final score:

But what disappointed me--and the reason I don't think this loss can be easily swept away--is the lack of composure shown by the Spartan players at key moments. With the amount of experience MSU has among its perimeter players, they needed to do a better job of knowing when to push things and when to step back and let the game settle down. Kalin Lucas made more out-of-control plays than he has since he was a freshman, taking ill-advised off-balance shots (6-17 from the field) and narrowly avoiding turnovers after dribbling into crowds in the lane. I credit Raymar Morgan for his aggressiveness on offense (18 points on 10 FGA) but he also made some very poor decisions along the way (5 turnovers). And the 2-20 three-point shooting line the team posted was a sign, to me, of a lack of confidence.

Purdue 69, Wake Forest 58: Purdue, after a disappointing home loss to Duke last year, blew the doors off Wake Forest in the second half. Hammer and Rails was on press row:

Purdue's hosting ability - If I hadn't been so flustered and freaking out (more on this in a moment), I could have really enjoyed sitting down and seeing the placard that said, "Purdue welcomes Travis Miller" right in the press section. Talk about a moment of vindication after working on this blog for over three years. I've covered tons of high school games since 1999, but this was like getting called up to the Majors after toiling for ten years in the minor leagues. Everything was first class on Purdue's end. I owe a big thank you to Randy at Rush the Court for setting everything up, as well as Purdue's basketball SID Cory Walton and his staff for everything on Purdue's end. Let's hope this does not turn into a cup of coffee situation and instead becomes a 10-year journeyman career.

Northwestern 65, NC State 53: Quality road wins have been a rarity in NU's basketball history, but Sippin on Purple was disappointed in the second half.

But at halftime, they must have been watching the ESPN halftime shows talking about how Northwestern could be a tournament team, and got full of themselves and came out very flat for the 2nd half. There were turnovers, bad passes, forced shots, mental mistakes, defensive breakdowns, you name it. Had they been playing a top Big Ten team, they would have gotten run out of the gym. But two things kept them in the lead, the first that NC State couldn't knock down an open 3 if their life depended on it, and second that Michael Thompson put Northwestern on his back and made big play after big play down the stretch. The final margin was a comfortable 12 points, but this game was much closer than that.

Illinois 76, Clemson 74: Hail to the Orange compares the thrill of the comeback win over Clemson to the comeback win over Arizona in the 2005 regional final. Seems a bit much, but a nice win for the Illini nevertheless.

Oh what is there is there to be said about this game? Other than of course that this was the greatest comeback for an Illinois team ever, that it was as improbable of a comeback as there could be and that I have not had this much fun watching a basketball since Arizona in 2005. I cannot stress enough just how bad the Illini looked in the first half. With Demetri sitting on the bench with fouls in the first half, the freshmen wilted under the pressure of Clemson. The Illini seemed to turn the ball over on their end every trip down the court, and give up a foul on every defensive stand. Bad passes, offense not getting set, and a lazy defense giving up long 3's.

Penn State 69, Virginia 66: The Nittany Lions opened the classic with a close win over the Cavaliers. Black Shoe Diaries discusses the Lions' luck:

What's behind this PSU phenomenon? As Gasaway wrote late in the 08-09 season, "Penn State (Actual: 8-7; Predicted: 6-9) . The Nittany Lions popping up here is actually quite interesting. Last year Ed DeChellis' team posted the single most fortunate conference season out of the 219 complete league records in this particular vault. (PSU went 7-11 in the Big Ten in 2008, with a scoring margin that would more customarily give you a 3-15 record.) Meaning Penn State has been lucky now two years in a row. How can this be? Take it away Ken Pomeroy: 'When you have 340-some D-I teams, you would expect about a fourth of them to be lucky two years running.' The Nittany Lions are very much in the vanguard of that fourth. Either that or Talor Battle really is Robert Horry. You make the call."

Boston College 62, Michigan 58: One of the Big Ten's most disappointing teams turned in the Challenge's most disappointing loss. UMHoops:

Well that’s certainly not how to snap a losing streak. Michigan picked up right where they left off with another terrible performance. Michigan knew the importance of this game but they played without any mental toughness. They blew routine layups, fell asleep on inbounds plays, couldn’t hit a shot, and lacked defensive intensity. The whole nine yards.

Miami 63, Minnesota 58: Another candidate for worst loss was the Gophers' slip-up in South Florida. The Daily Gopher:

For the third straight game the Gophers were atrocious from the free throw line (7-15). For the third straight game the Gophers couldn't develop anything consistent in the half-court offense. For the third straight game the Gophers defense had some nice moments, but also way too many costly lapses. The result? A 63-58 loss in Coral Gables to the Miami Hurricanes.

Virginia Tech 70, Iowa 64: A home loss to one of the ACC's worst programs won't deter Black Heart Gold Pants from reveling in reflected glory:

For the first time in the matchup's 10-year history, the Big Ten has won their annual battle with the basketball-obsessed ACC this season. And for that, they can thank... the Iowa Hawkeyes. Granted, if you want to be all technical about it, Iowa didn't "win" their part of the series, having lost to perennial powerhouse* Virginia Tech. We're not so sure the Hawkeyes didn't lose on purpose. Hear us out. Had Iowa selfishly and short-sightedly won their game, the series would have stood at a deceptive 4-2 lead for the Big Ten coming into today. John Wooden Todd Lickliter, ever wise beyond our comprehension, knew such a lead would have a deleterious effect on the conference's remaining teams, lulling them into a lethal complacency.

Boilermakings for 12/3

BoilerTMill — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 16:40:59 -0000

As we get ready for the Civil War for the Roses tonight (Sorry, I've become an Oregon fan) here is a quick Boilermakings before the weekend.

Volleyball wraps up its season - At least they finished with a win. At one point this year the Volleyball team was ranked in the top 20 nationally. They finished up last week with a five set win over Wisconsin. Purdue finished 14-17 on the year, and just 6-14 in Big Ten play.

Ryan Baker gets the call - This guy was the epitome of being a Boilermaker. He was recently promoted off the practice squad to the Dolphins' 53-man roster. He joins Kory Sheets and Akin Ayodele on that roster.

Women's basketball splits in Cali - I think it is safe to say that the ladies' NCAA Tournament hopes are in serious jeopardy after a very slow start to the year. Injuries are finally catching up with us. The ladies split a pair in California, beating UC Riverside 65-53 before falling to Pepperdine 64-59. They next face Virginia in the women's ACC/Big Ten Challenge tonight.

Men's Swimming and Diving finishes 3rd in Purdue Invite - I don't follow swimming too much, but we do at least know David Boudia is good. It is nice to see the new Aquatics Center Is paying off as we now have a nationally ranked program.

Quickie thoughts on the ACC/Big Ten Challenge - It's about time that the Big Ten came through on this. Unfortunately, It is way too late as we are still way behind in the standings. Here is each game in a brief summary:

Penn State 69, Virginia 66 - A very nice road win for the Nittany Lions after a rough start in the Charleston Tournament. Talor Battle went for 32 in a come from behind win.

Purdue 69, Wake Forest 58 - Wrapped up yesterday here.

North Carolina 89, Michigan State 82 - I think it is safe to say Carolina owns The Spartans. This was much more far fetched than the final score, as the Tar Heels led by double digits for most of the game.

Northwestern 65, North Carolina State 53 - Another impressive road win for the Big Ten. That gives the Wildcats a couple of quality non-conference wins for its potential NCAA portfolio.

Maryland 80, Indiana 68 - The Hoosiers led at home, but were undone by the bigotry of their own students. This was a shameful display. Every IU fan should be embarrassed as they are a better program than this. If I were Maryland I would have run up the score, then set fire to IU's 2002 Runner-up banner in retaliation.

Virginia Tech 70, Iowa 64 - The consensus worst team in the Big Ten fought hard at home and came up just short. This is a good sign for the whole conference.

Illinois 76, Clemson 74 - This is the frontrunner for the next Defend That, Digger! There is absolutely zero excuse for ever blowing a 23 point second half lead in less than 12 minutes. Clemson is a pretend ACC basketball program.

Miami 63, Minnesota 58 - The one ACC I wanted to win stayed undefeated with an impressive home win. This was the first win in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge for the Hurricanes. They were the last winless team in the event among the 23 schools.

Boston College 62, Michigan 58 - That makes three straight losses for the Wolverines. We should take note of their close loss to Alabama, whom we play in about nine days.

Wisconsin 73, Duke 69 - Wisconsin was very impressive and led comfortably throughout. A telling play occurred near the end wing Singler drove, only to miss a layup thanks to some tough Wisconsin D. He came down with a Great look of, "I get that foul called in ACC country, why not here?" Thank you, Ed Hightower!

Ohio State 77, Florida State 64 - Since Mrs. T-Mill hates both schools her comment was, "Can they both lose?" She had the same reaction for that Notre Dame-Ohio State Fiesta Bowl a few years ago.

ACC Overlords Vanquished

Bama Hawkeye — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 14:27:38 -0000

It only took 11 tries, but the Big Ten finally won a BigTen-ACC Challenge. Most impressive was the manner in which the Big Ten took the trophy. Rather than win games against lesser foes (I'm looking at you Minnesota and Michigan), the Big Ten had Illinois come storming back from 23 points down in the second half to knock off ranked Clemson in South Carolina. If that wasn't shocking enough, Wisconsin, not even picked to be in the top half of the league in many preseason projections, defeated Duke. DUKE. DUKE! The same Duke that had gone 10-0 in the previous editions of the challenge.

So a tip of the hat to Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue, Northwestern, and Penn State -- the six teams that made Jim Delaney a very happy man this morning.

Around the ACC: 12.2

MRickman84 — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 13:36:20 -0000

It was a rocky start to the Challenge with the ACC going 0-3 with the UVA, State and Wake losses, but the conference bounced back a bit in the second slate of games. Today will decide whether the ACC will win its 11th straight ACC/Big Ten Challenge.

NC State 53, Northwestern 65

So what was going on in this game? Two starters for State--Scott Wood and C.J. Williams--both had 0 points in a combined Tossed in with Javi Gonzalez's performance, those three starters combined for 3-21 shooting. Tracy Smith had an inspired game with 23, but Michael Thompsons's 22 points and Northwestern's 49% shooting (43% from 3) were enough to give the Wildcats the W.

Wake Forest 58, Purdue 69

We all know how this turned out. Nothing to see here. Turnovers, Purdue making 14 more FTs and the Boilermakers taking 12 more shots than the Deacs really told the story. E'Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson and Robbie Hummel combined for 54 points in the win.

Maryland 80, Indiana 68

This one was close for a long time, but the Terps pulled away in the last 5 minutes. Greivis Vasquez continued his poor shooting, going 4-14. He's gotta figure this out and fast, although he had 23, 5 rebounds and 8 assists. 13 of his 14 pionts came off FTs. Vasquez's shooting has obviously suffered, but he is becoming a better point guard overall and is making better decisions (1.83 A:TO). Milbourne had 19 and 7, while Eric hayes added 14. Indiana did not shoot well at all, but Maurice Cheek led Indiana with 19 points in the loss.

UNC 89, Michigan State 82

In a rematch of last year's National Championship game, the Tarheels absolutely blitzed Michigan State in the first half, shooting lights out and looking unstoppable. The Spartans settled down in the second half, cutting the lead down, but in the track meet, UNC just had too much firepower. Ed Davis had a career game with 22 points and 6 rebounds. Larry Drew looked really strong, adding 18 points and 6 assists. UNC shot 58% while Michigan State shot 2-20 from beyond the arc.

Virginia Tech 70, Iowa 64

Props to Iowa for hanging tough in this game. Iowa is not a very good basketball team at all, but they played inspired basketball yesterday. It didn't help the Hokies' cause that they shot 4-15 from deep, but they committed only four turnovers and looked under control the whole game. Malcolm Delaney had 18 points and 5 assists. I don't know what to make of this VT team, but 5-1 with a loss against Temple doesn't look terrible. Let's see how they look in the rest of their non-conference schedule.

Northwestern 65, NC State 53

Akula Wolf — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 06:00:05 -0000

More photos » by Ethan Hyman - AP

15 days ago: N.C. State's Javier Gonzalez drives to the basket during the second half of their NCAA college basketball game, of N.C. State's 65-53 loss to Northwestern Tuesday Dec. 1, 2009, in Raleigh, N.C. (AP Photo/The News & Observer, Ethan Hyman)

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Four Factors	NC State	Northwestern
eFG%	35.7	55.1
Turnover Rate	20.2	24.9
Off Reb Rate	30.0	34.5
FT Rate	33.9	32.7

	Pts	Poss	OFF_EFF	DEF_EFF
NW	65	64.3	101.1	82.4
NCSU	53	64.3	82.4	101.1

Box Score

NC State's defensive effort was good enough to earn the win tonight, but the offense was just... uh, highlighting how much of a work in progress this team is. Northwestern scored 1.15 points per trip in the first half on the strength of 65.4% shooting but was limited to 0.89 pts/poss in the second. But the Pack's offense continued to lay bricks in the second half, ultimately wasting a good opportunity to yoink this one away from the Wildcats.

Oh well. We knew there were gonna be days like this offensively. Plenty more ahead.

A trend to watch: our rebounding effort has gone out the window in the second half of just about every game we've played this season. Fatigue? Losing the battle to Northwestern in particular is inexcusable.

Big Ten / ACC Challenge - can the B10 finally win the challenge?

GopherNation — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:22:32 -0000

We all know that the ACC has dominated this "challenge" going a perfect 10-0 through the challenge's 10 year history. The Big Ten is back to being a heavyweight this year. The question is, are they good enough to finally beat the ACC head-to-head? The strength and depth of each conference is put to the test and each and every year the ACC wins. It becomes harder and harder to come up with appropriate excuses as to why the Big Ten is still better/deeper despite being unable to win more than they lose in this "challenge".

The conventional wisdom (especially in the Midwest) is that the Big Ten is arguably the best conference in the country and could go as deep as getting seven or eight into the NCAA Tournament. But unfortunately that may not translate into a B10/ACC Challenge win. I'll breakdown the match-ups in slightly greater detail below but here is how I see things playing out.

ACC Locks

Duke over Wisconsin
Maryland over Indiana
Virginia Tech over Iowa

Big Ten Locks

Purdue over Wake Forest
Ohio State over Florida State (admittedly this is closer than a lock)
Penn State over Virginia (only because it is over)

The Rest

Michigan State @ North Carolina
Minnesota @ Miami
Northwestern @ NC State
Illinois @ Clemson
Boston College @ Michigan

The Penn State win was huge and makes this much more winable. The Big Ten still needs to snag three of the toss-up five and four of those are on the road so...

Here is a brief look at each match-up with some key tempo-free stats.

Penn State @ Virginia - We kick off the Challenge with Talor Battle vs. Sylven Landesberg. And Battle won the battle, will it be enough for the Big Ten to win the war? (that analogy was awesome) Let's not waste time on this game since it is over.

Wake Forest @ Purdue - Here is a lock for the Big Ten and this may be the biggest lock of the entire challenge. Purdue is at home and so far has been the best looking team in the conference. Wake is 4-1 but has four meaningless wins and then a loss to William & Mary (that is one loss, not two).

	Wake Forest	Purdue
KenPom Rank	90	7
Off Eff	1.034	1.101
Def Eff	0.914	0.792
TO%	21.1%	17.7%
Off Reb %	42.2%	32.6%
Def Reb %	69.3%	71.7%

Wake rebounds on the offensive end of the floor very well but they tend to turn the ball over a bit too much, while Purdue forces turnovers to the tune of 28.3% of their opponents possessions. Wake is lead by Al-Farouq Aminu who is averaging 18.8 ppg and 11.2 rpg, he should be fun to watch but Purue's balance and overall efficiency should carry the Boilermakers to the home win here.

Northwestern @ NC State - NU is coming of a big win over the overrated Notre Dame Irish and NC State really hasn't played anybody yet. They did beat Auburn but that isn't a terribly impressive win. After the loss of Kevin Coble the Wildcats have turned to a the combo of Michael Thompson and John Shurna who are averaging a combined 32.7 ppg (48% of NU's offense), 9.4 rpg and 6.2 apg.

	Northwestern	NC State
KenPom Rank	87	46
Off Eff	1.086	1.068
Def Eff	0.978	0.895
TO%	18.4%	22.0%
Off Reb %	29.2%	35.2%
Def Reb %	64.1%	67.2%

This is one of the more interesting match-ups. The Wolfpack should be favored but Northwestern is a unique team to defend and could pose some problems for NC State. Northwestern has been pretty bad rebounding the ball this year and NC State has had their turnover problems. Whichever team can minimize their problem area the most will win this game. I'm calling the road upset here for Northwestern. I think they force just enough turnovers and then shoot their way to a win here.

Maryland @ Indiana -A lock for the ACC. Indiana is just too young, inexperienced and unimpressive to beat a decent but not great Maryland team. The Terps are on a two-game losing streak and really have not beaten anybody significant in this short season but I just don't see a way that Indiana pulls this one out. The Terps have four players averaging double-figures, three of whom are seniors. On the flip side Indiana is led by three players averaging 12 points or more per game but they include two freshman and a sophomore.

	Maryland	Indiana
KenPom Rank	51	189
Off Eff	1.028	0.945
Def Eff	0.868	0.966
TO%	15.2%	22.6%
Off Reb %	29.4%	33.6%
Def Reb %	66.3%	65.9%

This one will be a turnover fest for the Hoosiers. Maryland forces turnovers and Indiana loves to give it up. Add that to the fact that IU already struggles to score and you see why I have Maryland winning.

Michigan State @ North Carolina - My initial reaction is that this is another ACC win. The Tar Heels are just not a great match-up for Michigan State and the Spartans are on the road. Neither team has lived up to their preseason hype but the rematch of last year's NCAA final is the marquee match-up nonetheless.

	Michigan St	North Carolina
KenPom Rank	45	75
Off Eff	1.123	1.075
Def Eff	0.933	0.930
TO%	19.9%	22.8%
Off Reb %	43.4%	43.3%
Def Reb %	69.9%	69.2%

UNC has a turnover issue and they are not scoring nearly as efficiently as we are used to seeing Roy Williams team score. But Michigan State doesn't force many turnovers so I really don't expect that to be an issues. All other efficiency stats are virtually even. Both teams hold opponents to about .93 points per possession, both teams score right around 1.1 ppp and both teams rebound at near identical percentages. Whichever teams boxes out and keeps the Michigan State is probably a more experienced team but UNC is home and until the Spartans actually beat the Tar Heals I'm going with UNC.

Virginia Tech @ Iowa - I don't know that I need to spend much time on this one, Iowa is pretty bad this year.

	Virginia Tech	Iowa
KenPom Rank	145	207
Off Eff	0.915	0.955
Def Eff	0.886	0.995
TO%	16.3%	23.0%
Off Reb %	38.4%	32.6%
Def Reb %	69.3%	73.9%

On the surface and looking at the numbers I just don't see how Iowa gets this one done. Virginia Tech is also not very good and they struggle offensively more than Iowa does but I'd be surprised if they were to fall to the Hawkeyes.

Illinois @ Clemson - This might be the game I'm most looking forward to. Both teams are balanced with good inside/outside threats. Illinois is led by Demetri McCamey on the perimeter and Mike Davis on the interior. McCamey is averaging 12.7 ppg and 6.0 apg while Davis is averaging a double-double with 11.8 ppg and 10.0 rpg. For Clemson they are led by their senior forward Trevor Booker who is averaging 13.9 ppg and 8.7 rpg, but he's not alone as Tanner Smith is chipping in 11.6 ppg from the perimeter. These guys may not exactly guard each other but their match-ups should be a lot of fun to watch (especially if you like the color orange).

	Illinois	Clemson
KenPom Rank	83	10
Off Eff	1.089	1.125
Def Eff	0.967	0.843
TO%	15.6%	21.0%
Off Reb %	35.1%	39.6%
Def Reb %	74.7%	68.6%

Clemson is more efficient on offense but Illinois takes better care of the ball and their defensive rebounding is better. I want to go with Illinois here but after their losses to Bradley and Utah last week they make it really difficult to make that leap. Clemson will likely get the home W here.

Minnesota @ Miami - This is a Gopher blog so I'm going with a Gopher win. Miami is 7-0 but they have not played anybody of even relative significance.

	Minnesota	Miami
KenPom Rank	8	31
Off Eff	1.018	1.042
Def Eff	0.753	0.842
TO%	18.3%	26.5%
Off Reb %	31.2%	43.7%
Def Reb %	71.0%	71.4%

I think the numbers will back me up here. The Gopher offense struggles but this game comes down to defense and turnovers. Miami turns the ball over at an alarming rate and the Gophers offense thrives when the ball is given to them as much as the Hurricanes have been giving it up this year.

Boston College @ Michigan - A couple weeks ago I would have felt this was a lock for Michigan, but the Wolverines have struggled lately and this is going to be another tough match-up for them.

	Boston College	Michigan
KenPom Rank	82	130
Off Eff	1.174	1.034
Def Eff	1.032	0.979
TO%	18.3%	13.8%
Off Reb %	43.4%	29.9%
Def Reb %	70.7%	61.0%

Boston College is pretty efficient offensively but not so much on the defensive end. Michigan has really struggled with rebounding on both ends. The numbers support a BC win but when the lights get bright and when playing at home I expect Manny Harris to lead Michigan to a big win for the Big Ten. He can't do it alone but I think he'll be the catalyst.

Duke @ Wisconsin - I have great respect for Bo Ryan but Duke is just plain too good. I don't need to spend much time on this one. Wisconsin is experienced and it is at the Kohl Center but Duke is just too good.

	Duke	Wisconsin
KenPom Rank	3	50
Off Eff	1.188	1.096
Def Eff	0.809	0.920
TO%	15.5%	18.3%
Off Reb %	41.3%	32.2%
Def Reb %	67.6%	74.8%

The number support a Duke win. They rebound better, they take care of the ball better, they are are more efficient on both ends and they shoot better. This would be a huge shock if the Badgers were to pull this one out.

Florida State @ Ohio State - This also appears to be a really good match-up. Ohio State has been great in the early part of the season largely because Evan Turner has been outstanding. He is leading the Big Ten in rebounds (12.8) and assists (6.7). And also throwing in a decent 19.8 ppg which is third best in the league. He'll be the man the Seminoles should be most concerned about but they can't lose Jon Diebler who is making nearly four three-pointers per game and averaging 15.7 ppg. Florida State is athletic and lead by their own big time forward, Chris Singleton. He is averaging 12.3 ppg and 8.1 rpg. FSU is also big in the middle with Solomon Alabi and Xavier Gibson measuring out at 7-1 and 6-11 respectively.

	Florida St	Ohio St
KenPom Rank	17	25
Off Eff	0.992	1.132
Def Eff	0.758	0.895
TO%	26.4%	15.5%
Off Reb %	40.0%	34.1%
Def Reb %	68.4%	72.4%

Looking at the numbers FSU is very good defensively. They hold teams to just .758 points per possession which is third best in the country. They also hold teams to a 37.8 eFG% and block 22.9% of their opponents shots; both of which are also third best in the nation. This team will defend and it will be interesting to see if Turner, Diebler and Lighty can find some offense in this game. The Achilles heal of FSU is their turnover rate. When you give up the ball on 26.4% of your possessions you will allow good teams to stay in the game regardless of how good you are on defense. Ohio State is very good offensively scoring 1.132 pnts per possession and recording an eFG% of 59.5 (6th best in the country). If FSU continues to turn the ball over then I think OSU's offense will roll. Rebounding should be an important stat, but I think the key will be the turnovers. OSU wins this game at home.

After all of that (and one game in the books) I am seeing a Big Ten win, finally.

Big Ten -6 (PSU, Pur, Minn, OSU, Mich, NU)

ACC - 5 (Mary, Duke, UNC, VTech, Clem)

Previewing Northwestern

Akula Wolf — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 20:37:29 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

"Make Shots" ... why, that's just crazy enough to work. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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2009 Scouting Report / 2009 Game Plan
2009 Stats
2010 Roster
2010 Schedule

Northwestern Offense '08-'09

Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	52.6	51
Turnover Rate	17.8	34
Off Reb Rate	27.5	316
FTA/FGA	29.4	325

"Perimeter-oriented" does not begin to describe Northwestern's offensive inclinations. It's more like "oops, we accidentally scored inside the arc" or "EXTREME!!!!!!" More than half of their field goal attempts have come from outside (25 3FGA per game) and they have five guys averaging 5+ 3FGA/40 minutes, which has those five on pace for 100+ 3FGAs this season. Bill Carmody's teams have always put up a lot of threes, but never quite like this. You can probably chalk it up to early-season wackiness.

The Wildcats had a top-50 offense in 2009 on the strength of those first two factors; 42.2% of their attempts came from outside, and they hit an impressive 38.6% of those threes. This year's team hasn't been as successful from beyond the arc--they miss Kevin Coble and Craig Moore, who combined for 390 3FGAs and hit them at a 40% clip in '09--and their offensive efficiency has suffered as a result, but this is still a good offense. The biggest test to date for NC State's defense, no question.

Coble had a fantastic, underrated 2009 season (a slow pace has its PR drawbacks); he scored the ball efficiently both inside an out. If there's a prototypical Princeton Offense forward, he's it, and unfortunately those still do not grow on trees. But that's only because Herb Sendek's genetic researchers have yet to make a breakthrough. Top men continue to work the situation around the clock. It's a testament to Carmody's system and player development that the Cats have been able to carry on successfully without such a valuable player.

Starters

Michael Thompson (5-10, 182) -- Thompson, who has upped both his involvement in the offense and his efficiency, is one of the reasons why Northwestern is keepin' on. He's shooting well from everywhere on the court and enters Tuesday's game as the team's leading scorer.

Jeremy Nash (6-4, 191) -- Three-point specialist, role player.

Drew Crawford (6-5, 185) -- Ditto.

John Shurna (6-8, 210) -- Coble's injury has paved the way for Shurna's emergence as a go-to guy; he's taking 32.2% of Northwestern's shots when he's on the court, up from 24.6% last season. His three-point shooting has suffered for the bigger workload, but he's made improvements to his TO%, OR%, and Ast%, which has allowed him to maintain an offensive rating similar to last year's. That's no small feat.

Kyle Rowley (7-0, 280) -- Awful defensive rebounder for his size. Embarrassingly bad. He hasn't been getting a lot of minutes and probably won't make a significant contribution at the offensive end.

Bench

Luka Mirkovic (6-11, 235), who could start ahead of Rowley, and Alex Marcotullio (6-3, 180) round out the players averaging double-digit minutes. Mirkovic shouldn't get too involved and at any rate doesn't score very effectively; Marcotullio, meanwhile, has been Northwestern's best three-point shooter (11-21, 52.4%).

Mike Capocci (6-6, 200), Davide Curletti (6-9, 232), and Ivan Peljusic (6-8, 215) are possibilities as well.

Northwestern Defense '08-'09

Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	49.6	191
Turnover Rate	24.4	12
Off Reb Rate	36.0	286
FTA/FGA	36.5	179

They forced turnovers in bunches last season, which was good since their FG% defense was merely adequate and they gave up lots of second opportunities. Judging by how frequently their opponents settled for outside shots, this looks like a team that plays a lot of zone. (Pomeroy's defensive fingerprint thing agrees.)

Big Ten-ACC Challenge: A Back-of-the-Envelope Mathematical Preview

KJ@theonlycolors — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 16:00:29 -0000

A number of college basketball observers have been asking whether this is the year the Big Ten finally wins the Big Ten-ACC Challenge--although the less-than-dominating early-season tournament performances by ranked Big Ten teams this past week has probably reduced some of the national-level enthusiasm for Big Ten basketball.

Still, the Big Ten looks like it's 8 teams deep in terms of potential NCAA Tournament entrants. Is this the year the conference puts the "challenge" in the "Big Ten-ACC Challenge"? (To be fair, as pointed out by Mike Miller, they have come within one game of winning the thing 5 times in 10 attempts.)

To get some sense of the Big Ten's chances I've approximated game-by-game odds based on the still-early-but-fairly-reasonable-looking Sagarin ratings. Here they are:

Visitor	Home	Line	Favored
Penn St	Virginia	(9.0)	ACC
Wake Forest	Purdue	(14.0)	B10
Maryland	Indiana	6.0	ACC
Northwestern	NC State	(8.5)	ACC
Michigan St	North Carolina	(3.0)	ACC
Virginia Tech	Iowa	5.5	ACC
Illinois	Clemson	(13.5)	ACC
Boston College	Michigan	(2.5)	B10
Minnesota	Miami	(4.5)	ACC
Duke	Wisconsin	2.0	ACC
Florida St	Ohio St	(1.0)	B10

The numbers aren't very promising, as the ACC team is favored in 8 of 11 match-ups. And 2 of the 3 Big Ten favorites are favored by very small margins.

The big obstacle is that, of the Big Ten's 6 home games, 2 of them are being played at the venues of the two ~~worst~~ weakest teams in the Big Ten. Unless Indiana and/or Iowa can somehow hold court and win their games, the Big Ten would need to win the other four home games (including Wisconsin over Duke) and pull off two road victories--with MSU and Minnesota being the best hopes. As deep as the Big Ten looks in terms of potential tournament teams, the ACC is deeper through the very bottom of the league, with no team ranked lower than #83 in the Sagarin ratings.

So I'll go on record as predicting the Big Ten loses the challenge for yet another year. But, as the old cliché goes, they play the games on the court, not on paper. Hopefully I'm wrong, and the Big Ten rebounds from its generally disappointing results thus far in the new season.

Game action starts tonight, with Penn State-Virginia on ESPN2 at 7:00.

RPI WATCH: 11/29/09

BracketCat — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 22:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Kansas State's Jacob Pullen (0) puts up a shot under pressure from IUPUI's Jon Avery, behind, during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Nov. 28, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. Pullen scored 25 points, leading Kansas State to a 70-57 win. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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A quick note about yesterday's game:

We've been a notoriously slow-starting team so far this season, but I was surprised to learn that our 40 first-half points Saturday were the most we have scored in the initial period all year. Considering how poor our offense looked at times against IUPUI's matchup zone, we must have done a few things right.

Also, these numbers were striking:

	Points	Minutes
Jacob Pullen	25	34
Dominique Sutton	14	34
Denis Clemente	12	35
Curtis Kelly	11	33
everyone else	8	11*

*average per player

We clearly missed Jamar Samuels yesterday. I have to think he would have contributed at least 10 points and probably would have helped us top IUPUI on the boards. Furthermore, we really missed his energy and ability to create on offense, as well as the matchup difficulties he presents on defense.

But the bottom line is some other players on this team need to step it up. Our five best players can't do it all, and there's simply no excuse for no other player on the team scoring more than two points. That won't cut it against teams such Xavier and UNLV.

Anyhow, you can see how our other opponents fared yesterday after the jump. I'll even give you a hint: One of them suffered a pretty nasty spider bite... (chortle) ... And another one picked up a huge quality win.

If for some reason you absolutely need to know up-to-date numbers, I get them here.

Current Kansas State RPI = 15

Current Kansas State SOS = 24

Great Wins (RPI 1-50) = Loyola, Dayton

Solid Wins (RPI 51-100) = IUPUI

Bad Losses (RPI 100 or greater) = none

Quick discussion: Our numbers have not been this high in November in a long, long time. As long as we win three of the next five, and at least nine in conference play, there is very little doubt in my mind we will be in the Big Dance. The difference between last year's schedule and this year's needs to be measured in units of astronomical distance.

Loyola (4-1) | RPI = 27: Win over St. Ambrose (81-42)
Western Illinois (3-3) | RPI = 207: Win over Greenville (84-46)
Boston (1-4) | RPI = 141
Ole Miss (4-1) | RPI = 76
Dayton (3-2) | RPI = 42: Win over Towson (74-69)
IUPUI (5-2) | RPI = 84: Loss to Kansas State (70-57)
Fort Hays State (3-0)
Washington State (6-0) | RPI = 146: Win over San Diego (93-56)
Xavier (4-1) | RPI = 106
UNLV (5-0) | RPI = 8: Win over No. 16 Louisville (76-71)
Alabama (3-2) | RPI = 91
UAPB (0-4) | RPI = 249
Cleveland State (3-4) | RPI = 191: Loss to Wichita State (69-54)
South Dakota (3-3) | RPI = 95: Win over Dana (100-65)
Missouri (4-1) | RPI = 96: Loss to Richmond (59-52)
Texas A&M (4-1) | RPI = 25
Colorado (4-2) | RPI = 127
No. 3 Texas (4-0) | RPI = 71
Oklahoma State (5-0) | RPI = 16
Baylor (5-1) | RPI = 113
No. 1 Kansas (5-0) | RPI = 52
Nebraska (3-1) | RPI = 126
Iowa State (6-1) | RPI = 161: Loss to Northwestern (67-65)
No. 25 Oklahoma (3-3) | RPI = 214: Win over Nicholls State (81-60)
Texas Tech (7-0) | RPI = 48: Win over Samford (74-53)