BCS Standings: Oklahoma Tops First Official BCS Rankings, Boise State Third

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BCS Standings: The Oklahoma-Oregon National Championship Game, And Other BCS Bowl Projections

Our Off Tackle Empire took the liberty of putting together the BCS bowl projections based on the first week's BCS standings. Here they are:

  • BCS National Championship Game (BCS No. 1/Big 12 champion vs. BCS No. 2/Pac-10 champion): Oklahoma vs. Oregon
  • Rose Bowl (Big Ten champion vs. at-large): Ohio State vs. Boise State
  • Sugar Bowl (SEC champion vs. at-large): Alabama vs. Michigan State
  • Orange Bowl (ACC champion vs. at-large): Florida State vs. Auburn
  • Fiesta Bowl (at-large vs. Big East champion): Texas vs. West Virginia

Yep, Texas in a BCS bowl again. It could happen.

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BCS Standings: SEC, Big Ten Fans React

SB Nation's SEC blog, Team Speed Kills, is aware that it's a down year in the SEC. But, specifically, Team Speed Kills needs an answer: what is up with one computer in the BCS standings ranking Arkansas in the top 25 despite giving up 65 points on Saturday?

Meanwhile, our Big Ten blog, Off Tackle Empire, takes a step back from declaring an SEC-light BCS landscape and projects an Ohio State-Boise State Rose Bowl. And it ponders this quandary: if there's a one-loss SEC champion, does that team jump an undefeated Boise State to make it to the title game?

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BCS Standings: Oklahoma, Oregon, Auburn, Boise State Fans React

The release of the first BCS standings of the season, if nothing else, give the media the story lines that we can hopefully ride out 'til January 10th without having to learn a lot of new names. Right now it's X's championship to lose, with Y and Z hoping for chaos. With the release of the BCS standings, the respective fandoms of college football have fallen in line to their own narratives, from cautiously optimistic to giddy to paranoid.

Oregon has the top spot in both the human polls, but falls to No. 2 in the BCS rankings, which of course is just as good for a championship pairing. There is bad news of course, that the best wins for the Ducks are behind them with only No. 18 Arizona and unranked but still respected USC of real note the rest of the way. Oregon Ducks blog Addicted to Quack seems to take the cautiously optimistic route, not wanting to get too excited to early on, given how many games there are left for things to go terribly wrong.

Oklahoma on the other hand, has their route to the National Championship laid out on a red carpet, if they win out they are going to Glendale, no problem.  SBN OU blog Crimson and Cream Machine knows that once a team is installed at No. 1 in the BCS it is hard to shake them from it, and with two ranked opponents left in the regular season, plus a Big 12 championship match up with Nebraska/Missouri, there is no way Oklahoma doesn't make it.

The same can probably be said for both Auburn and LSU in the SEC. The winner of this weekend's most unlikely undefeated matchup of all time will have their own clear route to the BCS Championship. (Provided of course, you know, either of them can beat Alabama.) It seems pretty unlikely that an SEC team without a loss and with wins over LSU/Auburn, Alabama and whatever the SEC east rolls out will be kept out of the title game this time around, something about which Track 'em Tigers can barely contain their excitement. Sorry Oregon, but if both Oklahoma and one of these two SEC teams are undefeated after championship weekend, it looks like you expanded your league one year too late.

Then of course comes the always jilted Boise State Broncos, loved by fans but hated by computers and establishment journalists alike. It is clear that there is no way Boise State will have their shot at the national title unless several teams manage to lose in the next several weeks. There is no way the Broncos jump any of their major conference competitors with their schedule looking like it does now. One Bronco Nation under God is dutifully praying for the needed chaos to give the pride of the gem state its shot at glory, but it might take biblical plagues to have enough pieces fall into place for the Broncos. Too bad you can't incorporate wins from past seasons into the BCS rankings, wins against Oregon, Oklahoma and TCU would look awfully good right now.

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BCS Standings: No. 1 Ranking In Initial Poll Bodes Well For Oklahoma

While Oklahoma should certainly be pleased with its No. 1 ranking in the first installment of the BCS standings, there is still a lot of football left to be played -- the Sooners still have six games remaining on the schedule, including trips to Missouri (No. 11 in the BCS) and Oklahoma State (No. 14), plus the Big XII Championship game on Dec. 4. So temper expectations and curb enthusiasm, right? 

Maybe not. 

Our Oklahoma blog, Crimson and Cream Machine, offers a fun factoid (if you're a Sooners fan): in five of the past nine seasons, the team that was No. 1 in the initial BCS poll finished atop the rankings after the conference championship games.

Additionally, only twice has the first No. 1 team finished outside of the top-five (Oklahoma, oddly enough, in both 2001 and 2002) and three times that team has remained undefeated. You want a table? You're getting a table: 

Year Team Final Rank
Losses After
1st BCS Poll
2001 Oklahoma #10 2
2002 Oklahoma #7 2
2003 Oklahoma #1 1
2004 USC #1 0
2005 USC #1 0
2006 Ohio State #1 0
2007 Ohio State #1 1
2008 Texas #3 1
2009 Florida #5 1

Oklahoma begins the second half of their season Saturday night, at 6-0 Missouri.

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BCS Standings: Expert Analysis On First Official Rankings

(The following is from SB Nation BCS expert Ben Prather of BCS Evolution.)

I posted my projections this morning. Before moving on to the standings, I will take a look at the surprises in the standings.

Like, for example, the entire top five.

The Boise State Broncos started a long descent due to the computer strength. The Auburn Tigers jumped the TCU Horned Frogs in a not too unexpected close race. Oregon State's loss hurt both Boise State and TCU a lot in the computers, diminishing their strength of schedule.

I was also obviously too generous to teams falling due to losses across the board.

 

BCS National Championship Game Race

 

No team has ever started outside the top 12 in the BCS standings and earned a trip to the National Championship Game. Most of this race was covered this morning.

The Oklahoma Sooners appear to have taken solid control of the path to Glendale. The winner of the Auburn-LSU game next week will likely be the second-rated team in the next standings.

Alabama adds Mississippi State as another ranked team, so it passes TCU in my championship game race.

 

Non-Automatic Qualification Race

 

The Nevada and Air Force losses have changed the complexion of the race for the top team from outside the six automatic qualifier conferences. Though Boise State has the lead, TCU has the ability to pass them with a win over the Utah Utes. Utah will be unable to pass Boise State, however.

All three teams should be in the top 14 even with with a loss, and the odds of all three losing two or more games is a bit ridiculous.

The BCS automatic qualifying conference races are examined further at BCS Evolution.

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BCS Standings: At First Blush, Same Old Song For Oklahoma, Boise State

The first BCS standings seem like the same old song: Oklahoma played a tough schedule and was rewarded; Boise State front-loaded its schedule and hasn't gotten as much boost as expected.

That Oklahoma sits atop these rankings is probably due to their win over Florida State and Nebraska's loss to Texas. The former is going to be a huge asset, since the Seminoles have already matured greatly from their spanking in Norman and should be the ACC favorite. The latter was an unexpected help this week, and will be especially useful if Texas plays more like it did in upsetting the Cornhuskers than it did against, say, UCLA.

Boise State, on the other hand, did as much as it could, and it might still not be enough. In any other year, a win over Virginia Tech would be a win over a top 15 team; this year, the Hokies' loss to James Madison has hurt their standing greatly. It doesn't help that Boise State and TCU both gave Oregon State, perhaps the best team on either school's schedule, a loss, or that the Beavers have lost arguably their best player, James Rodgers, for the season.

These are not the radical BCS standings that herald a Boise State-led revolution. These are, especially with Oklahoma on top, the first signs that this year won't be so different after all.

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BCS Standings: Surprises Abound In First BCS Rankings

A quick review of the shocks in the first BCS rankings:

First and foremost, Boise State being ranked third is a bit of a shock. It certainly didn't help the Broncos that Oregon State fell yesterday, but most projections had Boise State atop these rankings for the first time. It seems it was not to be.

Oklahoma taking the top spot is a surprise, but only a minor one. The Sooners have two wins over teams in the top 20, Florida State and Texas, and their schedule has games against two others in the top 15 in Missouri and Oklahoma State.

It's a bit surprising that Alabama is the first one-loss team, ahead of Ohio State, especially with the Crimson Tide's best win coming against Arkansas, who the BCS standings seem to hate. That certainly spells doom for the Buckeyes' national title hopes: Alabama has more rigor left on its schedule and more upward mobility as a result.

The model in general seems to like a largely untested Big 12 quite a lot: five teams from the conference appear in the top 20 of the BCS rankings.

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BCS Standings: First Official BCS Rankings Have Oklahoma On Top, Boise State Third

ESPN just released the first part of the first official BCS rankings of the 2010 season on its "BCS Countdown" show. It's going the American Idol route and stretching out the selections, and announced the bottom 15 teams in the top 25 first. the college football polls as they stand, Oklahoma comes out on top.

"Love it or hate it, you cannot ignore it," Rece Davis said of the BCS system, welcoming the world to ESPN's show. Oklahoma probably loves it tonight; Boise State probably hates it as usual.

Full standings are as follows:

  1. Oklahoma
  2. Oregon
  3. Boise State
  4. Auburn
  5. TCU
  6. LSU
  7. Alabama
  8. Michigan State
  9. Utah
  10. Ohio State
  11. Missouri
  12. Stanford
  13. Wisconsin
  14. Oklahoma State
  15. Iowa
  16. Nebraska
  17. Florida State
  18. Arizona
  19. Texas
  20. West Virginia
  21. South Carolina
  22. Kansas State
  23. Arkansas
  24. Mississippi State
  25. Virginia Tech
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BCS Standings: Bottom 15 Teams Announced First, Missouri 11th

ESPN just released the first part of the first official BCS rankings of the 2010 season on its "BCS Countdown" show. It's going the American Idol route and stretching out the selections, and announced the bottom 15 teams in the top 25 first.

Those teams, in order from No. 11 to No. 25:

  1. ...
  2. ...
  3. ...
  4. ...
  5. ...
  6. ...
  7. ...
  8. ...
  9. ...
  10. ...
  11. Missouri
  12. Stanford
  13. Wisconsin
  14. Oklahoma State
  15. Iowa
  16. Nebraska
  17. Florida State
  18. Arizona
  19. Texas
  20. West Virginia
  21. South Carolina
  22. Kansas State
  23. Arkansas
  24. Mississippi State
  25. Virginia Tech
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BCS Standings: ESPN Radio Reporting Oklahoma Will Lead BCS Rankings

In a bit of an unexpected turn, ESPN Radio is apparently reporting that Oklahoma will lead the BCS rankings when they are released later tonight.

That would be a bit of a surprise, though Oklahoma's schedule has certainly been formidable with wins over Florida State and Texas. It also serves as a reminder that margin of victory is not part of the BCS formula.

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BCS Standings: Boise State Projected To Top First Official BCS Rankings

The first official BCS standings of the 2010 season will be released later tonight on ESPN's "BCS Countdown" show, but we've already got a fairly good idea what they might look like.

SB Nation BCS guru Ben Prather has done the analysis and predicts the Boise State Broncos will become the first team from a non-BCS automatic qualifier conference to ever top the official BCS rankings.

Prather cites Boise State's strong schedule to this point as its biggest asset. But he also sees potential for the Broncos to fall later in the season, as teams like LSU, Oklahoma, and Auburn finish with the meat of their schedules.

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