BCS Standings: Expert Analysis On First Official Rankings

(The following is from SB Nation BCS expert Ben Prather of BCS Evolution.)

I posted my projections this morning. Before moving on to the standings, I will take a look at the surprises in the standings.

Like, for example, the entire top five.

The Boise State Broncos started a long descent due to the computer strength. The Auburn Tigers jumped the TCU Horned Frogs in a not too unexpected close race. Oregon State's loss hurt both Boise State and TCU a lot in the computers, diminishing their strength of schedule.

I was also obviously too generous to teams falling due to losses across the board.

 

BCS National Championship Game Race

 

No team has ever started outside the top 12 in the BCS standings and earned a trip to the National Championship Game. Most of this race was covered this morning.

The Oklahoma Sooners appear to have taken solid control of the path to Glendale. The winner of the Auburn-LSU game next week will likely be the second-rated team in the next standings.

Alabama adds Mississippi State as another ranked team, so it passes TCU in my championship game race.

 

Non-Automatic Qualification Race

 

The Nevada and Air Force losses have changed the complexion of the race for the top team from outside the six automatic qualifier conferences. Though Boise State has the lead, TCU has the ability to pass them with a win over the Utah Utes. Utah will be unable to pass Boise State, however.

All three teams should be in the top 14 even with with a loss, and the odds of all three losing two or more games is a bit ridiculous.

The BCS automatic qualifying conference races are examined further at BCS Evolution.

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