We look at the six remaining realistic contenders for the Pac-10 crown. Who has the best shot at dethroning Oregon? And what are the chances the Ducks end up in the BCS National Championship?
Oct 28, 2010 - Out of it
The Washington St. Cougars are unshockingly winless at 0-5. The UCLA Bruins are 1-3, with their lone win against the aforementioned Cougars--they've been uncompetitive against their other three opponents and will be underdogs against almost everyone else. The Arizona St. Sun Devils is a little bit feistier at 1-3, with a lone win over Washington and some competitive games against the Oregon schools, but a blowout loss against Cal doesn't bode well. Neither of those teams are expected to run the table and I'm sure both teams would just be happy to end the season at .500
The USC Trojans can't win the conference, but they can be a spoiler to everyone else. Starting this weekend. Can they get first place? They'd almost certainly have to beat the Ducks.
That leaves...
Who's left to challenge them? We rank them from least to most.
5) at Washington State. Jeff Tuel and the Cougars have been looking for a win all season. It could come here in their next-to-last home game, and possibly the easiest game left on their schedule.
4) Washington. Probably should be fifth on this list because the Huskies might be fighting for bowl eligibility in this one.
3) at Oregon State. Cal's offensive line put up their worst performance last year against these Beavers. Even though their team defense has dropped off a cliff, never trust the Bears to beat an Oregon
2) Stanford. For the second year in a row, the Big Game could end up being Cal trying to play spoiler to Jim Harbaugh and Andrew Luck's BCS/Pac-10 title aspirations. Worked well the first time, but Luck isn't likely to throw 10 for 30 again.
1) Oregon. This could be one of those games where the Bears play very, very hard for three quarters before eventually being worn out by the talent and experience of the Ducks. Should be fun to watch, but anyone expecting an upset better be betting on an unimpressive Cal offensive line playing the game of their lives against Oregon's front seven.
Odds: Their chances are slim to none--they have to win out and hope a lot of teams lose (particularly Arizona, who needs to drop two more). The only good thing is that one of their losses to the Trojans, which means they don't have to worry about the tiebreaker. That's also the only good thing about a 48-14 loss to them.
Over at the California Golden Blogs, along with my stat geek Berkelium97, we managed to calculate several win probabilities, and gave Cal a 1.57% chance of winning out. San Diego, Las Vegas, El Paso are all very intriguing locales to visit in December, I've heard. I think Cal fans would be happy to be going anywhere considering our difficult finishing stretch.
Who's left to challenge them?
5) UCLA. Rick Neuheisel back in Seattle against a competitive Husky team. How do you think this will turn out?
4) at Washington St. Yeah, the Cougars are ahead of the Bruins. It's a rivalry game and it's in Pullman, and Wazzu is frisky enough to make it competitive.
3) at Cal. Could be a very quiet crowd, especially if the Golden Bears lose the Big Game the previous weekend. Not many fans will be rushing back after Thanksgiving if that happens. If the Fighting Lockers are aiming for bowl eligibility, this will be a very winnable one.
2) Stanford. Luck. Locker. Let the battle of future NFL first round draft picks commence in the dusk in Seattle.
1) at Oregon. After the way the Huskies were obliterated in Tucson, the Huskies should be happy if they keep it competitive.
Odds: Their biggest trump card is they've beaten the Beavers. But they lost to Arizona, and in the big picture their win against USC won't help them win tiebreakers. If they win their next two games vs. Stanford and at Oregon, it'll go a long way toward elevating their slim chances. But a loss against either of those teams sinks them.
Who's left to challenge them?
5) at UCLA. Could be a trap game for young Matt Scott. Arizona is flushed from vanquishing Washington and UCLA is reeling after their predictable beatdown from Oregon.
4) Arizona St. Dennis Erickson could be a lame duck in this one. Wildcats might be pushing for bowl position. Not hard to see who to like in this one.
3) USC. Matt Barkley did very little against this defense at home last season. Will he perform better in the desert? Moreover, can the USC defense cope with the Airraid offense?
2) at Stanford. This was a shootout last season with neither defense being able to really stop the other team's offense. A similar scenario arises this year, and Andrew Luck looks like he'll have the advantage, especially if he's facing Scott instead of Nick Foles.
1) at Oregon. The Ducks went into Arizona and won a double-overtime thriller in last year's Pac-10 game of the season. It's hard to see the Wildcats returning the favor this season unless their front four can dominate Oregon's seasoned offensive line.
Odds: By far the toughest road of any of the legit contenders. They need to go on the road to beat both Stanford and Oregon to have a realistic shot and hope Oregon State drops another. We calculate only a 3.65% chance that Arizona pulls off an undefeated run to the end, so unless they spring a few upsets, their road to Pasadena isn't looking good.
Who's left to challenge them?
5) at Arizona State. Strange things happen in Tempe, but this is the easiest game left for the Cardinal. The big question is whether the back seven can hold up against Steven Threet and the ASU pass attack, which has generally been effective at home.
4) Oregon State. Could be a shootout in Palo Alto to end the season. Ryan Katz is an up-and-comer and he should make the Cardinal secondary work. Neither of these pass defenses are that impressive.
3) at Washington. Not an easy stadium to play in, but the Cardinal offensive line should dominate the Husky front seven. The big question is whether the Cardinal defense can contain Jake Locker.
2) at Cal. The last two seasons Jim Harbaugh's team has needed a win to either get bowl eligibility or stay alive for the conference title, they've gone up against the Golden Bears and lost both games. It'll not be that easy to go into Strawberry Canyon and take back the Axe, particularly considering how Cal's weak defense last season contained the power run attack and moved the ball downfield on the Cardinal at will.
1) Arizona. This is probably the best pass defense Andrew Luck has yet to face. They are the biggest impediment standing between a Cardinal BCS berth.
Odds: If they want the conference title, they need to win out and hope lose Oregon loses twice. The good news is they have Arizona and Oregon State coming to their place. The Cardinal have about a 15% chance to run the table, which isn't that bad, and an even better shot at reaching ten wins. A respectable season that should at the very least place them in the Alamo Bowl.
The other hope that doesn't involve a conference championship is that Oregon wins out and they go to Glendale, giving the Cardinal a decent shot to get picked to go to Pasadena. Cardinal are probably screwed if they end up 11-1 and in a tie with the Ducks, because Oregon wins the head-to-head and it's highly unlikely the Hairballs will get picked for an at-large bid (ticket sales generally determine at-large bids, and we all know what a loyal, passionate fanbase Stanford football attracts). The Cardinal will need to finish 11-1 and hope Boise and TCU either lose a game or get picked elsewhere. They've got a lot they need to work on.
Who's left to challenge them?
6) Washington St. Cougars will put up a fight and lose. This has been Wazzu's story against all the good Pac-10 teams this season.
5) at UCLA. Dangerous matchup for a team that's had all sorts of problems containing the run. Unfortunately for the Bruins their offense hasn't proven they can do anything against a good Pac-10 defense.
4) Cal. Can Ryan Katz throw on this defense and open up holes for Jacquizz Rodgers? Can they hold down Shane Vereen and Isi Sofele and force Kevin Riley to beat them?
3) USC. Quizz just eats the Trojans defense alive. But USC's offense had no trouble with a pretty good defense last year, and they look much better this season.
2) at Stanford. Andrew Luck could shred the Beavers in this one. This is a terrible Beavers pass defense. But Ryan Katz could do the same to the Cardinal secondary, which is no beacon of excellence itself.
1) Oregon. I'm sensing a recurring theme of who ends up at #1 on these lists. Safe to say Oregon State's weakness (defense) matches up perfectly with Oregon's strength (offense). But you never know what OSU will do.
Odds: Like the Ducks, they control their own fate. Win out, win the Civil War at home, and they're going to Pasadena. Home dates with USC, Cal and Oregon couldn't hurt either, but they do have to go to Palo Alto Thanksgiving weekend. But the Beavers are much weaker without James Rodgers and a struggling defense, and the Ducks are looking mighty unstoppable.
According to our calculations, Oregon State has only a 2% chance of running the table. They're going to need some help the rest of the year.
Who's left to challenge them?
5. Washington. Maybe Jake Locker will have the game of his life in Autzen. Maybe the Husky defense will suddenly not give up 200 yards on the ground per game. None of us are betting on it though.
4. at Cal. Travelling to Memorial has been a carnival of horrors for the Ducks, although they nearly beat the best Golden Bear team of the decade in 2004 and were subject to a torrential downpour in 2008. It's a different era and a different time though. The only question is whether the 3-4 Cal defense that was shredded last season can perform better with a more experienced unit against Darron Thomas and LaMichael James. No one knows for sure, especially after they got torn asunder by the Trojans but held down the Wildcats so superbly.
3. Arizona. This is the toughest matchup on paper for the Oregon defense--the Ducks have always struggled against the Airraid and have had their previous two contests come down to the final moments of the game. That being said, the Ducks are unbeatable at home this season--they beat their stiffest challenge by three touchdowns after being down 18 points in the first quarter, and they've never been seriously challenged in Autzen on an other occasion. The Wildcats better hope some other teams beat up on the Ducks before this one and puncture their shield of invulnerability.
2. at Oregon State. Never an easy game, although the Ducks have won the last two in the series. But it's the Civil War, and it's in Corvallis, and it could again be a Pac-10 title game. Never count Mike Riley out, especially when he's facing a top ten team.
1. at USC. There's no way the mediocre USC defense is going to slow down Oregon's unit that much. But can Matt Barkley and the Trojan offense rack up points on the board to give them the offensive edge? Remember the lone conference loss by the Ducks under Chip Kelly did not come at the hands of a team that stopped their offense, but one that simply outscored them (the Cardinal behind the power running of Toby Gerhart). Win this week convincingly, and the stage is set for the Ducks to run the table.
Odds: So this is what everyone wants to know. What are Oregon's shot at a National Championship?
Since a one-loss Pac-10 team never seems to be attractive enough to the pollsters and computers, we're going to assume the Ducks need to win out. And the odds are pretty high that they can do it--a 20% chance is remarkably fair, and I'm sure most Oregon fans would be happy to take that after losing their star quarterback to off-the-field indiscretions.
And even if they lose one to anyone BUT the Beavers? Pasadena isn't a bad consolation prize.
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