SB Nation 2010 College Football Polls
This week's projected BCS standings have the TCU-Boise State race to the Rose Bowl (or National Championship Game) getting even tighter.
Nov 14, 2010 - The Oregon Ducks and Auburn Tigers still hold the reins in the race to the BCS National Championship Game. The TCU Horned Frogs and Boise State Broncos are still waiting and hoping teams above them fall. And LSU is a dark horse, with everyone else virtually eliminated.
This week was one of the most static in the BCS standings I have ever seen. One has to go to 13th-ranked Iowa to find the highest ranked team to lose. Of the six top 25 teams that lost, three lost to another top 25 team. One lost to ineligible, but non-trivial USC. The highest-ranked team to play a ranked opponent was 11th-ranked Alabama.
The automatic qualifying conference races have become a lot clearer. The SEC will be determined when Auburn plays South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game, for example. The Big East would be a bad example and the Big 10 appears destined for a highest ranked team in the BCS standings tie breaker.
Now, for a look at tonight's likely top 15 and each team's BCS picture.
Oregon can clinch a BCS bowl berth by winning either of their remaining games, or with a Stanford loss. Win both games and they will be in the National Championship Game.
Auburn can clinch a BCS bowl berth by winning the SEC Championship Game. Beat Alabama, too, and the Tigers are in the BCS National Championship Game.
The SEC will get two BCS bids, and if Auburn loses the SEC Championship Game, it would be interesting to see if they or LSU get a BCS invite.
With Utah, Oregon State and Baylor losing this week, and after a scare against San Diego State, TCU loses a good chunk of street cred. The Horned Frogs should still be ahead of Boise State, but not so far ahead that a solid win by Boise State over Nevada can't make up the difference.
Boise State has Nevada left, and a good win here may push the Broncos over TCU. Fail to pass TCU after that game, and they are left wondering what they have to do to get to the table. Again.
One of these last two teams will be in either the BCS National Championship Game, or in the Rose Bowl. Either outcome would be historically notable.
A win over Arkansas is not likely to push LSU over Boise State or TCU, though it would be very close. LSU is a solid leader for the SEC's second bowl spot, regardless of how the championship game goes down. If Auburn loses the SEC Championship Game, the Tigers from the Plains would likely fall below LSU.
While the Pac-10's Rose Bowl slot is still a remote possibility, Stanford would present an interesting challenge to the BCS selection process. This is particularly true if the choice comes down to them or one of the two unbeaten teams above.
As the highest ranked Big Ten team in the BCS standings, and with a win over Ohio State, Wisconsin is in a strong position. Ohio State might still pass them with a win over Iowa, however.
More likely than not, Nebraska will clinch the Big 12 North next week. Win the Big 12 Championship Game and the Fiesta Bowl is theirs. Lose a game and they risk falling out of the top 14 needed for BCS eligibility as an at-large selection.
Well, well, look at who is back in the top 10. If the Crimson Tide beat Auburn, it could make a possible Sugar Bowl selection between them and LSU interesting.
A win over Iowa could give Ohio State the lead in the BCS standings. This is important because the Big Ten is likely to fall back to these standings as a tie-breaker. Ohio State would still need Michigan State to not lose.
The Buckeyes could be selected as an at-large BCS team ahead of either Boise State, TCU or Stanford since the BCS is not obligated to take the highest ranked at large teams.
#11) Oklahoma St. Cowboys
#12) Michigan St. Spartans
#13) Arkansas Razorbacks
#14) Missouri Tigers
#15) Oklahoma Sooners
I am going to bump Boise State over TCU this week, though it is a close race. Also, teams below LSU have such a remote chance it is no longer worth enumerating. LSU jumps above the leaders with a loss due to the difficulty of making up late season losses in the polls. Here is my projected finish if all teams win their remaining games:
1) Oregon
2) Auburn
3) Boise State
4) TCU
5) LSU
6) Oregon, with a loss
7) Auburn, with a loss
The distance between #3 and #5 is infinitesimal and subject to change.
9 comments
Comments
Why Boise over TCU?
Because Boise beat a bad Idaho team by a lot? Because TCU held on to beat a legitimate SDSU team, whose previous losses were at Missouri (8-2, and ranked), and at BYU (surprisingly back up to 5-5 now, and the loss was VERY controversial)?
What a joke.
Just from the eyeball test, TCU is bigger, faster, and stronger than Boise. They play a MUCH more legitimate schedule in their conference, including teams like BYU, Air Force, Utah, and SDSU. Their non-con is comparable, with both playing Oregon St., and TCU subbing a talented Baylor squad (7-4) — who they decimated, 45-10 — for an overrated Virginia Tech (8-2) — a team that would be MAYBE 4-4 or so in the Big 12, Big 10, or SEC.
With all that said, could Boise win a one-off game against a top team from a major conference? Sure. Could TCU? Sure. But to flip-flop them based on this past weekend alone is just absolutely ludicrous.
"Coaching a football team is the most engrossing thing in the world. It is playing chess with human pawns." --Walter Camp
by K. Scott Bailey on Nov 14, 2010 12:53 PM EST reply actions
...Almost as ludicrous as flipping them TWO weeks ago
When #4 TCU destroyed Utah, but #3 BSU also thumped Hawaii. Enjoy the ride.
You were not put on this Earth to "get it", Mr. Burton.
by bronconationeast on Nov 14, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
Nonsense.
At the time, Utah was ranked #5. Hawaii was, well, Hawaii.
"Coaching a football team is the most engrossing thing in the world. It is playing chess with human pawns." --Walter Camp
by K. Scott Bailey on Nov 14, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
The big change
is that Utah no longer looks like a really impressive win.
Bradley-Terry ratings for college football and basketball
Because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
by SpartanDan on Nov 14, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
it is the system
That stinks and provides a lot of debate
Mountain West Connection The best site for MWC sports!
Follow me on twitter!
by Jeremy Mauss on Nov 14, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
I guess you expect Oregon to jump TCU in the computers?
That’s the only way the Ducks could stay on top in the BCS this week.
by kngry7 on Nov 14, 2010 4:58 PM EST reply actions
The good thing is
that because of the weird new computer formulas, which the BCS doesn’t allow to account for margin of victory, TCU’s huge computer advantage will keep them in front of Boise, who won’t be rewarded for blowing out a crappy Idaho team, as the voters strangely did.
"Coaching a football team is the most engrossing thing in the world. It is playing chess with human pawns." --Walter Camp
by K. Scott Bailey on Nov 14, 2010 6:31 PM EST reply actions
Another thing is, I'm not sure this author understand how FAR Boise is behind TCU in the computers.
TCU has a computer score of 0.950, while Boise’s is 0.790. I doubt that the computers look very favorably on Boise’s win over a terrible Idaho team, but let’s say that bumps them to 0.800, while TCU’s win over a 7-3 SDSU team will probably simply keep them solidly where they’re at. Does the author of this piece REALLY think that one win over an actually decent team (Nevada) will make up 0.16 in the computers?!? I just don’t see that happening.
"Coaching a football team is the most engrossing thing in the world. It is playing chess with human pawns." --Walter Camp
by K. Scott Bailey on Nov 14, 2010 9:01 PM EST reply actions
Help me understand...
BSU played both Oregon and TCU last year. BSU beat both of them, and neither seemed a fluke (both were close hard fought games). BSU and TCU are substantially the same teams, and Oregon hasn’t turned over that many.
If last year doesn’t matter, why are Alabama and Ohio State and Texas (etc…) always assumed to be better than a hundred teams they won’t play?
If last year does matter (for the monied schools at least), why are TCU and Oregon presumed to be better than Boise St. automagically?
Div 1 college football is judged the same way figure skating and boxing are judged, and it’s judged with the same fundamental integrity.
Everyone’s an expert (just ask them), and everyone knows who’s better than who, yet when they back that knowledge up with $ in Vegas a new indoor canal or outdoor ocean is built, showing what their expertise is worth.
by Just a guy in Seattle on Nov 15, 2010 6:23 PM EST reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed