One week removed from nearly getting grounded by Cal, Oregon is still likely to be on top of the BCS rankings. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

BCS Rankings: Oregon, Auburn Top Week 13 Standings

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4 Total Updates since November 21, 2010
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BCS Standings: Expert Analysis Of The Week 13 Standings And The Big Ten Race

Well, I was clearly mistaken this morning. The Wisconsin Badgers have a solid lead in this week's rankings that next week's games can not overcome. The only way Wisconsin should lose the Big Ten is with a loss or a loss by the Ohio State Buckeyes.

I also appeared to be overly generous this week to the Alabama Crimson Tide and Arkansas Razorbacks, lifting them past the Michigan State Spartans.

The Boise State Broncos still appears poised to pass the TCU Horned Frogs next week, with a win over the Nevada Wolf Pack. The gap between them and the LSU Tigers has actually grown, significantly reducing LSU's BCS National Championship Game odds.

Last year TCU and Boise State broke conventional wisdom by both being selected for a BCS bowl with eligible teams from automatic qualifying conferences being eligible. It is looking very likely that that precedent could repeat itself this year. With both teams fronting the Mountain West Conference next year, this opens the door to the question, what do you do with a non-BCS automatic qualifier conference that consistently produces two compelling BCS-eligible teams?

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BCS Rankings: Analysis Of The Week 13 Standings

A brief overview of the Week 13 BCS rankings.

Wisconsin has to be breathing a sigh of relief. Though Ohio State had a chance to make a move on the Badgers with a big win over Iowa, the Buckeyes' close one in Iowa City didn't give them the leg up Jim Tressel's bunch might have expected. That means that, unless poll voters elevate Ohio State for a big win over Michigan, Wisconsin will all but guarantee a Rose Bowl berth with a victory over Northwestern this week.

On the other hand, Virginia Tech has to be a bit disappointed to be so disrespected by the BCS standings. The Hokies are behind Oklahoma, Missouri, and Nebraska in this week's rankings, and out of the top 14 that is the cutoff for BCS at-large eligibility. It's exceedingly unlikely that Virginia Tech can get into a BCS bowl game except by winning the ACC Championship Game, and though that shouldn't be too tall a task for the red-hot Hokies, it's still evidence that their early-season struggles have left this team with just one path to a BCS bowl game.

Stanford's plight remains the same: the Cardinal could be the second-highest-ranked one-loss team in the country, yet still miss out on a BCS bowl thanks to Oregon likely making the BCS National Championship Game and giving the Pac-10's automatic Rose Bowl berth to either TCU or Boise State.

And finally, the Big 12 is in a weird place: the conference has four teams in the top 15 of the BCS rankings, but none in the top eight. That might mean that the only team heading to a BCS bowl from the Big 12 is the eventual conference winner, likely the winner of this week's Bedlam Game between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma or Nebraska, while another team that just sneaks into the top 14 is passed over for a second school from another conference.

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BCS Rankings: Oregon, Auburn Top Week 13 Standings

ESPN switched up their BCS Countdown show, getting the BCS rankings announced before all of America was fully stuffed on football and beyond the point of being able to deal with Craig James.

That, of course, doesn't matter to Oregon, on top of the BCS standings for Week 13 just as the Ducks have been for the better part of a month.

Oregon is followed in the top five by Auburn, TCU, Boise State, and LSU. The top ten is rounded out by Stanford, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Michigan State.

That's bad news for Boise State, which still hasn't quite made up the necessary distance on TCU, and worse news for Ohio State, probably reliant on a bump from a win over Iowa to vault past Wisconsin and into the lead for the Big Ten championship and the automatic Rose Bowl berth to go with it.

But this batch of BCS rankings brings the same old good news for the Ducks, Horned Frogs, and SEC, all of whom have either gotten enough of a bump from their early season so far to stay ahead of all opponents by winning out or are highly ranked with a chance of advancement thanks to big games left on the schedule.

We'll have more analysis on the BCS standings and the ramifications of them as the night wears on, including analysis from our BCS expert.

Full Week 13 BCS rankings as follows:

  1. Oregon
  2. Auburn
  3. TCU
  4. Boise State
  5. LSU
  6. Stanford
  7. Wisconsin
  8. Ohio State
  9. Oklahoma State
  10. Michigan State
  11. Alabama
  12. Arkansas
  13. Oklahoma
  14. Missouri
  15. Nebraska
  16. Virginia Tech
  17. Texas A&M
  18. South Carolina
  19. Nevada
  20. Utah
  21. Arizona
  22. Florida State
  23. North Carolina State
  24. Iowa
  25. Mississippi State
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BCS Rankings: Oregon, Auburn Should Top Week 13 Standings

With Oregon, Auburn, and TCU all enjoying bye weeks in Week 12, the Week 13 BCS rankings should be little different from last week's.

Our BCS expert, Ben Prather from BCS Evolution, forecasts little change from last week's BCS standings, keeping his top five the same and predicting that no team ranked lower than LSU can make it to the BCS National Championship Game. That's been par for the course lately, as the BCS rankings have been surprisingly stable after a flurry of early-season upsets.

Where it might get weird, Prather writes, is lower in the top 10, where Ohio State might jump Wisconsin and take pole position in the race for the Big Ten championship and the Rose Bowl berth that comes with it.

Ohio State looks to be the winner of the Big Ten race, barring a loss to Michigan next week, after jumping Wisconsin this week. A Michigan State loss could change things as well, giving the Badgers the outright Big Ten championship without a BCS standings tiebreaker.

For more BCS predictions, please visit BCS Evolution.

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