The latest BCS rankings are out and LSU is No. 1, followed by Alabama.
Nov 27, 2011 - Only one man stands between an LSU-Alabama rematch in the BCS title game.
Here a hint: He's 44.
Mike Gundy will need to be at his persuasive best, both on the field and to the national media and his brotherhood of coaches, on why his Oklahoma State Cowboys should break up the all-SEC party in New Orleans.
Week 14 BCS Standings projections:
1. LSU, 2. Alabama, 3. Oklahoma State, 4. Virginia Tech, 5. Stanford, 6. Boise State, 7. Houston, 8. Arkansas, 9. Oklahoma, 10. Oregon, 11. Kansas State, 12. South Carolina, 13. Georgia, 14. Michigan State, 15. Wisconsin, 16. Michigan, 17. Baylor, 18. TCU.
To bump Alabama out of the BCS title game, Oklahoma State not only needs to beat Oklahoma impressively in Bedlam next Saturday to secure the Big 12 title, it has to make a case as to why its overtime loss to Iowa State last week should be overlooked. The Pokes will have to convince enough of the 174 voters in the coaches and Harris polls to make a flip-flop to jump to No. 2.
Yep, bump out Alabama, not LSU. So does that mean the Tigers' SEC title game against Georgia is practically a bye?
You have questions, lots of questions. As much as answers are possible one week from the end of the regular season, we have answers.
So here goes:
1. Can LSU lose to Georgia and still play for the BCS title?
In a word, probably. Unless the Tigers are beaten badly by Georgia, the voters won't be willing to drop them past No. 2, which would mean three SEC teams in BCS bowls this year.
2. Isn't there a rule restricting each conference to only two BCS bids?
Yes, but there was a loophole that was added during the 2007 season, in typical BCS making-stuff-up-as-we-go fashion. That year, a scenario developed in the Big 12 similar to this year's in the SEC, and a new stipulation was added that when the top two ranked teams are at-large entries from the same conference, that conference's champion still gets a guaranteed BCS bowl bid.
3. So if Georgia can't spoil the all-SEC rematch, only Oklahoma State can?
Yes. Neither Stanford nor Virginia Tech will gain enough support from the voters - plus computer ratings points - to leapfrog Alabama. The Cardinal are finished with the regular season and Virginia Tech will be playing a now three-loss Clemson in the ACC title game. Houston and Boise are not even in the conversation.
4. How likely is Oklahoma State to jump Alabama anyway?
Not likely. The scenario is different from 2006 in that OSU is currently behind not just Alabama but also Stanford and Virginia Tech in both polls. It will require a huge change of heart from a majority of those voters to push OSU all the way up to No. 2 and forget that it lost to a 6-5 Iowa State team. As of this week, that sentiment isn't there.
5. If Stanford isn't going to the title game, is it assured of a BCS bowl spot?
That's in the affirmative. There is no scenario where Stanford could be squeezed out of a BCS bid. If OSU loses and OU earns the Big 12's automatic bid, Stanford will be no worse than fourth in the final BCS standings, thus guaranteeing a BCS spot. If OSU wins, Stanford will take one of the four at-large bids, likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.
6. Is it certain a BCS spot will go to a team from a non-AQ conference?
If Houston beats Southern Miss in the Conference USA title game, the Cougars will be the first team from that conference to earn a BCS bid. If the Cougars lose, TCU may claim that spot only if it finishes in the top 16 of the final BCS standings. The Horned Frogs are projected to be at No. 18 this week, but they're likely to just sneak in by getting ahead of Houston (if it loses) and the Big Ten title game loser.
7. Alabama, Stanford, Houston/TCU ... that leaves one more BCS spot. Who gets it?
The chic talk has it going to Michigan, after its 40-34 win over Ohio State that ended a seven-game losing streak in the rivalry, but that overlooks one thing - Michigan needs to be in the top 14 to even be considered. Well, the Wolverines are projected to be at No. 16 this week, still two spots on the outside looking in. But make no mistake, if Michigan is eligible, it'll be picked, likely as the Sugar Bowl's first selection.
8. So what needs to happen for Michigan?
First, Georgia must lose to LSU. If Georgia wins the SEC title and takes the third BCS bid for the SEC, there is no scenario where Michigan would get a BCS bid. Michigan can count on jumping Georgia and the Big Ten title game loser to squeeze into the top 14, but it has one more team to worry about: Baylor. If the Bears beat Texas next week, they might jump the Wolverines, keeping them out of the top 14.
9. Can Oklahoma State still get a BCS bid if it loses to OU in Bedlam?
Possibly, but only if Michigan isn't eligible or if neither Houston nor TCU earns a BCS spot. If the Pokes win Bedlam, Michigan isn't eligible and no non-AQ team qualifies for a BCS spot, this is the only way for Boise State to swoop in and grab a BCS spot.
10. Then that means the Orange Bowl is doomed to another ACC-Big East matchup?
Looks that way, unless ... West Virginia claims the Big East title, then the Sugar Bowl might consider a Michigan-WVU matchup (call it the RichRod Bowl). The Mountaineers will need to win at South Florida and have Cincinnati defeat UConn to take the Big East's BCS bid. If Cincy loses, then the Big East bid goes to 7-5 Louisville, a prospect that must have the Orange Bowl reps shudder in their orange blazers down in South Florida.
Samuel Chi is the proprietor of BCSGuru.com and managing editor of RealClearSports. Sam's college football and BCS analysis, exclusively for SB Nation, will appear on Sundays and Mondays throughout the season. Follow him on Twitter at BCSGuru.
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BCS Rankings Projections, Week 14: Who Can Stop An All-SEC Rematch?
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Comments
Bowl projections if OSU makes the national championship
Would your guess be:
Michigan vs. Stanford
Alabama vs. Houston
or something else?
by usuo mojinga on Nov 27, 2011 11:54 AM EST reply actions
Your dreaming or confused at best.
No way OSU with a loss to an unranked team can pass up a team who’s only loss was to the #1 team in OT and who beat the #1 team everywhere but the score board.
by burmbuster on Nov 27, 2011 1:07 PM EST reply actions
Then how about Virginia Tech
if they manage to avenge their 1 loss to Clemson in the ACC title game next weekend? Should LSU end up winning that title game against Virginia Tech by more than 3 points, then rank ‘Bama number two in the final poll. Alabama already demonstrated on the field they aren’t as good as LSU and to give them another chance at beating the Tigers makes a joke out of the entire concept of the NCAA football season being equivalent to a playoff as the BCS defenders are always telling us.
by thunderupokst on Nov 27, 2011 8:11 PM EST up reply actions
VT has beaten no-one of significance
and their schedule is miles weaker than Alabama. Their schedule is also weaker than Stanford for that matter. Regardless of what happens, its obvious that Alabama is the only team in the country who can play with LSU. The 2 best teams playing is the point of any playoff system. Haven’t you grown tired of watching the SEC champs beat the brakes off of whoever else from a mediocre conference gets over-rated into the NC game? The real shame is that the SEC will only get 2 BCS teams despite having 5 of the 12 best teams in the country. Make peace with the fact that the SEC is the best football in the country.
by philadelphiacub on Nov 27, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
Your Big East tiebreakers are not correct.
If Cincinnati loses, the Big East bid goes to Louisville. (Louisville would be the only 5-2 team, or would be tied with WVU, whom they defeated.) It doesn’t matter if WVU wins or loses.
If Cincy wins and WVU loses, the Big East bid goes to Cincinnati. (Cincy and UofL would be 5-2, and Cincy beat UofL.)
If Cincy wins and WVU wins, the Big East bid goes to West Virginia. (There would be a 3-way tie where all the teams are 1-1 against each other. The second tiebreaker is BCS rating, where WVU has a large lead.)
Editor and Ombusdman, Voodoo Five, South Florida Bulls SBN Blog
by GarySJ on Nov 27, 2011 1:58 PM EST reply actions
Cincy WVU & UL
Probably tied for Big Est champs. Would round out the Big 12 to 12teams nicely
by Live4WVU on Nov 27, 2011 4:13 PM EST reply actions
What garbage
That the #7 team in the BCS can’t get to a BCS bowl, despite an 11-1 season, trashing of the SEC East champ Georgia (despite missing 4 starters) and a one point loss to a ranked team on a missed field goal.
That is absolute garbage, and still another reason the BSC needs to go.
by HSridge on Nov 28, 2011 1:25 AM EST reply actions
Although I 100% agree the BCS needing to go
The #7 team missing a BCS bowl isn’t why. I mean, the #8, #11, #12, and #14 teams are also extremely unlikely to make a BCS game (due to the two team per conference rule); heck, only #14 Georgia has a non-trivial chance at all and they can only get a spot by beating #1 LSU (albeit in a building a short drive from Athens).
by drothgery on Nov 28, 2011 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
Boise thrashed Georgia? Were we watching the same game?
Georgia had just 17 fewer total yards while averaging more yards per pass, per run, and per play. They had the ball in Boise territory with ~4 minutes left and a chance to cut the Boise lead to 7.
Let’s also not forget that Georgia was playing without 2 or their top 3 defenders (Rambo and Ogletree) and had to throw their defensive gameplan out the window when Ogletree went down in the first quarter with his foot injury (when Boise had yet to score). It really can’t be overstated the effect this had on UGA. Ogletree was probably the most important player in the game as his status as a former DB would have given Grantham a lot more freedom to run exotic defenses. Instead they ended up going mostly vanilla and Moore did a great job dinking and dunking over the middle.
Finally, Boise is a veteran team that had played big games before. This was a UGA team where the top RB and top 3 WR were all freshman playing in their first career games. It would interesting to see how things would go if they had a rematch now. I’m not going to sit here and say UGA would win for sure or anything, but I think it would clearly be a much better game this time around.
Oh, and you didn’t win your conference, you don’t get to complain about not playing in a BCS game. And if the BCS were gone it would simply be replaced by the old bowl system in which Boise wouldn’t have gotten an invite to a major bowl either.
by nixa37 on Nov 28, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
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