SB Nation Bowl Projections 2011
We project not only the winners of this Saturday's conference title games, but also every college football bowl game including the six BCS matchups. LSU-Alabama seem destined for a rematch, but there's much BCS madness to be decided.
Nov 28, 2011 - Championship Week is upon us! Let's hop right to the bowl projections. As always, the results below are based on this week's Momentum Rankings.
In accepting a bid to the Poinsettia Bowl, Louisiana Tech joins BYU, UL-Lafayette and Arkansas State in securing their bids.
Here are some key projections for this coming weekend's games:
West Virginia beats South Florida (by 0.1)
Cincinnati beats UConn
Kansas State beats Iowa State
Boise State beats New Mexico
Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma (by 0.7)
ACC Championship: Virginia Tech beats Clemson
Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin beats Michigan State
Conference USA Championship: Houston beats Southern Miss
MAC Championship: Northern Illinois beats Ohio
Pac-12 Championship: Oregon beats UCLA
SEC Championship: LSU beats Georgia
The Big East title scenario is as follows:
-- If UConn beats Cincinnati, Louisville is Big East champion.
-- If Cincinnati beats UConn and USF beats West Virginia, Cincinnati is Big East champion.
-- If Cincinnati beats UConn and West Virginia beats USF, West Virginia is (probably) Big East champion. At this point, BCS ranking is the tie-breaker, and WVU is currently the only Big East team ranked in the BCS Top 25.
In the above scenario, West Virginia takes the title, but WVU-USF is a complete and total tossup. Cincy is projected to comfortably beat UConn, but that projection does not take into account the fact that, even with his good performance last weekend, Munchie Legaux's Cincy offense is not at the same level as the Cincy offense led by injured quarterback Zach Collaros.
Barring an unexpected result this Saturday, it is pretty easy to see how the BCS bowls will take shape at this point:
1. LSU and Alabama go to the BCS championship.
2. Wisconsin/Michigan State (Rose), Oregon (Rose), Oklahoma State (Fiesta) and Virginia Tech (ACC) assume their automatic bids, while Houston and the Big East champion (whoever it is) take two of the four remaining spots. Stanford, currently 11-1 and fourth in the BCS, automatically gets one of those two spots.
3. That leaves one remaining bid for the following pool of teams: 11-1 Boise State (currently seventh in the BCS rankings), 10-2 Kansas State (currently 11th) and possibly either 10-2 Michigan (currently 16th) or a 9-3 Oklahoma team. You must be ranked in the BCS Top 14 to qualify; Michigan is 16th, but they should leap both Georgia (if they lose to LSU) and the Michigan State/Wisconsin loser to get to 14th. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is currently 10th, and it is difficult to determine how far they will fall if they lose to Oklahoma State. (Oklahoma State obviously joins this pool if they lose to Oklahoma and fall to 11-2 and around sixth to eighth in the BCS standings.)
With the projections taking shape above, I think Michigan gets to 14th and gets the 10th bowl slot.
4. The Sugar Bowl gets the first selection from the Houston/WVU/Stanford/Michigan pool (since they lost their automatic bid to the BCS championship) and picks the team with the biggest, most-likely-to-travel fanbase: Michigan.
5. The Fiesta Bowl is up next and takes the westernmost team: Stanford.
6. The Sugar Bowl then has to choose between West Virginia and Houston. Houston is almost next door, but WVU has a much larger fanbase than the commuter school. I'm going with Houston below, but it isn't a given.
7. The Orange Bowl takes whoever is left; in this case, that is West Virginia.
It appears Hawaii (losing to BYU) and UCLA (losing to Oregon) are both projected to finish 6-7, and with USC and Miami ineligible for bowl bids, that means there will be 71 teams eligible for 70 bowl slots. There is no way we end up with 69 at this point, but this cuts it awfully close. Only one bowl eligible team will go without a bid; most likely that will be either Toledo, Air Force, Wyoming, Western Michigan, Western Kentucky or Ball State. (As it stands, 6-6 Marshall is likely safe, as they will get one of the slots allotted to Conference USA.) In the below projections, Ball State drew the short straw and missed out.
The scenario I discussed last week still exists. There are three available Big 12 slots for four Big 12 teams -- 7-5 Missouri, 7-5 Texas, 6-6 Texas A&M and 6-6 Iowa State. The Holiday chooses first (assuming 9-3 Baylor goes to the Insight Bowl ... and let's be honest: there's always a chance Texas jumps up and steals that spot ... and they will absolutely take that spot if Texas beats Baylor this weekend); if head-to-head results matter, then Missouri takes the bid, as they went 3-0 versus the other teams on the list. But if it doesn't, then one of the better-traveling Texas schools (probably Texas) might take that spot, with the other Texas school getting the Texas Bowl. That leaves the Pinstripe Bowl to choose between Iowa State and probably one of the two departing Big 12 schools, Missouri or Texas A&M. I still think there's a very good possibility that the Pinstripe gets a subtle nudge to go with Iowa State (just like the Insight Bowl was allegedly nudged to take Missouri over departing Nebraska). In the example below, Mizzou goes to San Diego, but you could very easily flip the Tigers and Aggies.
To the bowls!
| Date | Bowl | Team | Team |
| 17-Dec | Gildan New Mexico | Air Force (7-5) | Western Kentucky (7-5) |
| 17-Dec | Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Toledo (8-4) | Utah State (7-5) |
| 17-Dec | R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl | Western Michigan (7-5) | UL-Lafayette (8-4) |
| 20-Dec | Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl | Pittsburgh (6-6) | Florida International (8-4) |
| 21-Dec | SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl | San Diego State (8-4) | Louisiana Tech (8-4) |
| 22-Dec | Maaco Bowl Las Vegas | Boise State (11-1) | Arizona State (6-6) |
| 24-Dec | Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl | Nevada (7-5) | Tulsa (8-4) |
| 26-Dec | Advocare Independence Bowl | TCU (10-2) | N.C. State (7-5) |
| 27-Dec | Little Caesars Pizza Bowl | Northwestern (6-6) | Ohio (9-4) |
| 27-Dec | Belk Bowl | Virginia (8-4) | Cincinnati (9-3) |
| 28-Dec | Military Bowl | Wake Forest (6-6) | Temple (8-4) |
| 28-Dec | Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl | Missouri (7-5) | California (7-5) |
| 29-Dec | Champs Sports Bowl | Florida State (8-4) | Notre Dame (8-4) |
| 29-Dec | Valero Alamo Bowl | Oklahoma (9-3) | Utah (7-5) |
| 30-Dec | Bell Helicopters Armed Forces Bowl | BYU (9-3) | Marshall (6-6) |
| 30-Dec | New Era Pinstripe Bowl | Iowa State (6-6) | Rutgers (8-4) |
| 30-Dec | Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl | North Carolina (7-5) | Vanderbilt (6-6) |
| 30-Dec | Insight Bowl | Baylor (9-3) | Penn State (9-3) |
| 31-Dec | Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas | Texas (7-5) | Iowa (7-5) |
| 31-Dec | Hyundai Sun Bowl | Georgia Tech (8-4) | Washington (7-5) |
| 31-Dec | AutoZone Liberty Bowl | Southern Miss (10-3) | Texas A&M (6-6) |
| 31-Dec | Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl | Illinois (6-6) | Wyoming (7-5) |
| 31-Dec | Chick-fil-A Bowl | Auburn (7-5) | Clemson (9-4) |
| 2-Jan | TicketCity Bowl | Purdue (6-6) | SMU (7-5) |
| 2-Jan | Outback Bowl | Michigan State (10-3) | South Carolina (10-2) |
| 2-Jan | Capital One Bowl | Nebraska (9-3) | Georgia (10-3) |
| 2-Jan | Progressive Gator Bowl | Ohio State (6-6) | Florida (6-6) |
| 6-Jan | AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic | Kansas State (10-2) | Arkansas (10-2) |
| 7-Jan | BBVA Compass Bowl | Louisville (7-5) | Mississippi State (6-6) |
| 8-Jan | GoDaddy.com Bowl | Northern Illinois (10-3) | Arkansas State (10-2) |
| 2-Jan | Rose Bowl | Wisconsin (11-2) | Oregon (11-2) |
| 2-Jan | Tostitos Fiesta Bowl | Oklahoma State (11-1) | Stanford (11-1) |
| 3-Jan | Allstate Sugar Bowl | Michigan (10-2) | Houston (13-0) |
| 4-Jan | Discover Orange Bowl | Virginia Tech (12-1) | West Virginia (9-3) |
| 9-Jan | Allstate BCS National Championship Game | LSU (13-0) | Alabama (11-1) |
18 comments
Bill Connelly:
2011 Bowl Projections, Week 14: LSU-Alabama Rematch And The Rest
18
Nov 28
10
Nov 21
9
Nov 21
1
Nov 20
11
Nov 14
8
Nov 13
22
Nov 7
12
Nov 7
16
Nov 1
Comments
Do you just do these in finishing order?
Any consideration given to Chick Fil A not wanting to get Clemson vs. Auburn for a 3rd time in 15 months and a another in the same locale next September?
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Nov 28, 2011 4:41 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I think so, with some slight emphasis on keeping travel to a minimum.
2 years ago, the Insight took a 6-6 Iowa State team over an 8-4 Mizzou. I’d give it about a 50/50 chance that ISU gets picked ahead of Mizzou again this year.
Executive Producer - WRNL TV
by CyHawk on Nov 28, 2011 11:37 PM EST up reply actions
"If head to head results matter"
They don’t. Not as much as conference defections, anyway.
Executive Producer - WRNL TV
by CyHawk on Nov 28, 2011 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
I went into detail a bit about it last week...
…and the bottom line is, there’s a recent rematch almost no matter how you slice it for the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.
Follow me at @SBN_BillC!
SB Nation
Rock M Nation
Football Outsiders
Football Study Hall
by Bill Connelly on Nov 29, 2011 6:36 AM EST up reply actions
FSU-Auburn?
by Ardbeg on Nov 29, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
Why WKU/Wyoming over BSU?
W Kentucky lost to an FCS team (44-16 to Indiana State, who finished 6-5). Ball State upset Indiana (a crappy Big 10 team, but a Big 6 conference team nonetheless) and is from a stronger conference (MAC has more bowl teams than Sun Belt). If it is because they are No. 2 from the Sun Belt, then BSU should go over Wyoming. BSU beat Ohio (who might win the MAC, and lost by 3 to NIU, the other possible MAC winner). Wyoming nearly lost to Weber State (they won 35-32) and performed worst against TCU (lost 31-20) and Boise (lost 36-14), their conference leaders.
by chillicothe20 on Nov 28, 2011 5:56 PM EST reply actions
South Carolina is very unlikely to go to the Outback
95% it will be either the Cotton or Citrus.
"Lattimore, as the kids can say, can ball, and sometimes does it to the extent one might say [he] is out of control in his balling." - Spencer Hall
by GwinnettGamecock on Nov 29, 2011 1:42 AM EST reply actions
I think outback is more likely for you
than the capital one. If UGA plays a close game against LSU, then we’ll go to Orlando and the east/west outback/cotton spit survives. If UGA gets blown out, the cap one will take Arky and then who knows what the outback does. I’d give sakerlina a 10% chance of going to Orlando and a 30% chance for Tampa.
by Mark Mandingo on Nov 29, 2011 9:35 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Could you explain why you have the Alamo and Holiday Bowls skipping Washington for Utah and Cal
a couple of teams that lost to Washington and finished with the same record (and worse PAC12 record)? I am asking to understand what methodology you used there.
by quacker27 on Nov 29, 2011 4:31 AM EST reply actions
Head-to-head matters so very little in bowl selections.
The thought was purely who might travel the best to a game, and Washington is a bit screwed by geography. Those two bowls really might go with any of those three teams in any order.
Follow me at @SBN_BillC!
SB Nation
Rock M Nation
Football Outsiders
Football Study Hall
by Bill Connelly on Nov 29, 2011 6:37 AM EST up reply actions
I would love to see the Utes in the Alamo bowl
But I think that they will drop to the Sun bowl after that terrible loss to Colorado.
my $.02
by SC_Ute on Nov 29, 2011 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
Gottcha.
by quacker27 on Nov 29, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
Is this the only place that has UW in the Sun Bowl?
I’ve seen Utah and California everywhere
Better to have died a small boy than to drop this football - John Heisman FromTheRumbleSeat
Twitter, twitter, twitter
by Winfield Featherston on Nov 29, 2011 11:58 AM EST reply actions
Possible Hokies vs. Trees Orange Bowl Rematch?
/shoots self in face
by DeepFriar on Nov 29, 2011 12:38 PM EST reply actions
Michigan must have Georgia and Clemson lose, and likely needs one of Oklahoma/Baylor/Kansas St. to lose.
If RGIII puts on a show against Texas, they could easily pass Michigan in the polls and take the 14th spot. Even if voters don’t flip Michigan and Baylor, they are likely to close the gap significantly, . The polls have TCU between Michigan and Baylor. It’s easy to see Baylor passing TCU with a win, even if they don’t jump Michigan on most ballots. An Oklahoma win over Okie Lite combined with a Michigan St. loss to Wisconsin could send Baylor shooting up the computer rankings.
by Ardbeg on Nov 29, 2011 2:07 PM EST reply actions
I didn't think the Compass Bowl was going to feature an SEC team
As 2 SEC schools will be in the BCS, the Compass Bowl gets 10th pick…and last I checked the SEC doesn’t have 10 eligible teams since Tennessee lost.
As I understood it, the Compass was going to be BE vs. MAC.
by Remote Cardinal on Nov 29, 2011 3:29 PM EST reply actions
North Carolina will be in the Military Bowl
The ACC has a rule where bowls must take either the best available team (based on conference record) or a team within one conference win.
North Carolina finished 3-5 in conference. NC State finished 4-4 and everyone else is 5-3 or better. The only team North Carolina can jump is NC State. Since NC State will be picked before Wake Forest (5-3), the Independence Bowl will end up with Wake Forest and North Carolina will fall to the Military Bowl.
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/acc/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2011-12/release/release.pdf (ACC Football Championship Press Release, page 28).
by J W R on Nov 29, 2011 9:04 PM EST reply actions
Go Air Force!
I’ve seen them listed in two or three different bowls, but the New Mexico Bowl hasn’t been mentioned at all. If AFA is in, so is Wyo.
Colorado College Hockey, Colorado Avalanche, Colorado Rockies fan to the death.
"We should be dreaming. We grew up as kids having dreams, but now we're too sophisticated as adults, as a nation. We stopped dreaming. We should always have dreams." -Herb Brooks
by Lost Winter on Dec 2, 2011 4:28 PM EST reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed