2012 SEC Football Schedule: Winners, Losers And Standings Projections

By Bill Connelly - NCAA Football Contributor

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Dec 29, 2011 - Georgia wins! South Carolina loses! Oh my God, Ole Miss is doomed! Most initial reactions to the release of the 2012 SEC football schedule followed the same lines; it makes sense, really, as those things all appear to be true. But what else can we learn about the 2012 slate? Using 2011 numbers, quite a bit.

One of the better ways to imagine the impact of the 2012 schedule is to look at the impact it would have had in 2011. Using F/+ numbers and actual 2011 results, we can come up with a loose set of projections. Some guidelines:

1. If the two teams really played, that result is used. Only, in almost every case, the home-road status of the game is flipped. In those instances, we will flip the score by approximately seven points in favor of the home team. That is a generally-accepted number for home-field advantage -- you lose about 3.5 points going from home field to a neutral site, and you lose about another 3.5 points going from neutral to road.

2. For games that did not take place (i.e. most Missouri and Texas A&M games, plus a few others), we will use F/+ projections as our guide (those results are in bold). These ratings will change slightly once bowl results are factored in, but this is still a solid place to start.

Date	Away	Home	Winner
30-Aug	South Carolina	Vanderbilt	South Carolina by 11
8-Sep	Auburn	Mississippi State	Mississippi State by 1
8-Sep	Florida	Texas A&M	Texas A&M by 8
8-Sep	Georgia	Missouri	Georgia by 3

The main problem with using F/+ projections: they don't really take Texas A&M's late-game collapses into account. Using every play and every drive of 2011, A&M was a pretty damn good team, ranking 18th overall. The timeliness of their poor plays and drives was staggering. Perhaps they would have indeed beaten Florida by eight, but who knows how the tendency toward collapse would have factored in. Meanwhile, No. 14 Georgia is able to edge out No. 33 Missouri.

Date	Away	Home	Winner
15-Sep	Alabama	Arkansas	Alabama by 17
15-Sep	Florida	Tennessee	Florida by 3
22-Sep	LSU	Auburn	LSU by 28
22-Sep	Kentucky	Florida	Florida by 45
22-Sep	Vanderbilt	Georgia	Georgia by 12
22-Sep	Missouri	South Carolina	South Carolina by 5

Home field carries South Carolina over Missouri in Columbia No. 1 (or is it Columbia No. 2?).

Date	Away	Home	Winner
29-Sep	Ole Miss	Alabama	Alabama by 52
29-Sep	Arkansas	Texas A&M	Arkansas by 1
29-Sep	Tennessee	Georgia	Georgia by 15
29-Sep	South Carolina	Kentucky	South Carolina by 44

Arkansas beat Texas A&M by four points at Jerry World; a flip to College Station would be worth about three points.

Date	Away	Home	Winner
6-Oct	Mississippi State	Kentucky	Mississippi State by 12
6-Oct	Arkansas	Auburn	Arkansas by 17
6-Oct	LSU	Florida	LSU by 23
6-Oct	Georgia	South Carolina	South Carolina by 10
6-Oct	Texas A&M	Ole Miss	Texas A&M by 16
6-Oct	Vanderbilt	Missouri	Missouri by 6

Safe to say, the Collapse Factor would not have been enough to cost A&M against Ole Miss. Meanwhile, Missouri earns Win No. 1 at home over Vandy.

Date	Away	Home	Winner
13-Oct	Alabama	Missouri	Alabama by 16
13-Oct	Kentucky	Arkansas	Arkansas by 23
13-Oct	Auburn	Ole Miss	Auburn by 11
13-Oct	Florida	Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt by 2
13-Oct	South Carolina	LSU	LSU by 29
13-Oct	Tennessee	Mississippi State	Mississippi State by 7

Drawing LSU certainly does South Carolina no favors, eh? Meanwhile, Bama slowly pulls away from Missouri just like they slowly pulled away from most SEC opponents. And flipping Florida-Vandy to Nashville flips the result, too. This will become a trend for the 'Dores.

Date	Away	Home	Winner
20-Oct	Alabama	Tennessee	Alabama by 24
20-Oct	Auburn	Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt by 7
20-Oct	South Carolina	Florida	Florida by 2
20-Oct	Georgia	Kentucky	Georgia by 2
20-Oct	LSU	Texas A&M	LSU by 19

With S.C.-Florida taking place at the Swamp, the Gators steal a win, leaving South Carolina two games in the hole with the new slate.

Date	Away	Home	Winner
27-Oct	Ole Miss	Arkansas	Arkansas by 12
27-Oct	Texas A&M	Auburn	Texas A&M by 7
27-Oct	Florida	Georgia	Georgia by 4
27-Oct	Kentucky	Missouri	Missouri by 18
27-Oct	Tennessee	South Carolina	South Carolina by 18
27-Oct	Mississippi State	Alabama	Alabama by 24

Does A&M hold on in Auburn? Meanwhile, Homecoming No. 1 for Missouri goes swimmingly.

Date	Away	Home	Winner
3-Nov	Alabama	LSU	LSU by 10
3-Nov	Missouri	Florida	Florida by 3
3-Nov	Ole Miss	Georgia	Georgia by 21
3-Nov	Vanderbilt	Kentucky	Vanderbilt by 23
3-Nov	Texas A&M	Mississippi State	Texas A&M by 4

Missouri is done no favors by facing South Carolina and Florida on the road. Flip those two games and send them to Athens, and the Tigers go 2-1. As is, they go 0-3. Also: does A&M hold on in Starkville?

Date	Away	Home	Winner
10-Nov	Texas A&M	Alabama	Alabama by 19
10-Nov	Arkansas	South Carolina	Arkansas by 9
10-Nov	Georgia	Auburn	Georgia by 31
10-Nov	Mississippi State	LSU	LSU by 20
10-Nov	Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	Vanderbilt by 16
10-Nov	Missouri	Tennessee	Missouri by 3

Home-road status makes no difference on the Tigers' first trip to Knoxville.

Date	Away	Home	Winner
17-Nov	Arkansas	Mississippi State	Arkansas by 20
17-Nov	Ole Miss	LSU	LSU by 56
17-Nov	Tennessee	Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt by 1

Flipping Tennessee-Vandy to Nashville swings the game in Vandy's favor, and ... poor Ole Miss. These margins are horrendous.

Date	Away	Home	Winner
24-Nov	Auburn	Alabama	Alabama by 35
24-Nov	LSU	Arkansas	LSU by 17
24-Nov	Kentucky	Tennessee	Tennessee by 4
24-Nov	Mississippi State	Ole Miss	Mississippi State by 21
24-Nov	Missouri	Texas A&M	Missouri by 7

All is right with the world: Tennessee beats Kentucky in Knoxville. And Missouri still wins at College Station. (Fun note: they will have the chance to win in College Station for the third consecutive year next fall. An odd scheduling quirk.)

East	Conf. Rec.	Record	Diff
Georgia	7-1	10-2
South Carolina	5-3	9-3	-1 Win
Vanderbilt	5-3	9-3	+3 Wins
Florida	4-4	7-5	+1 Win
Missouri	4-4	7-5
Tennessee	1-7	5-7
Kentucky	0-8	3-9	-2 Wins

Your big winner: Vanderbilt. They draw Auburn (at home) instead of Arkansas, and sending Florida and Tennessee to Nashville flips those tight results. (This assumes, of course, that Vandy has the same homefield advantage as other SEC schools. Everybody got the same seven-point flip in this exercise.) This does suggest that, if James Franklin's Commodores are going to make a move, next year would be a pretty good time.

Meanwhile, even if Missouri loses to Arizona State, they finish with the same overall record thanks to the addition of an extra cupcake opponent. And yes, South Carolina is done no favors here, even if they don't suffer as much as others.

West	Conf. Rec.	Record	Diff
LSU	8-0	12-0
Alabama	7-1	11-1
Arkansas	6-2	10-2
Mississippi State	4-4	8-4	+2 Wins
Texas A&M	4-4	8-4	+2 Wins
Auburn	1-7	4-8	-3 Wins
Ole Miss	0-8	2-10

Obviously things at the top of the West were not going to change much. Your three most impacted teams are Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Auburn, though A&M's collapsibility (that's a word now) could have resulted in no change at all for them. Auburn is hurt the worst in this new arrangement, while Mississippi State, in drawing Tennessee at home and getting Auburn in Starkville, benefits quite a bit.

Read More: 2012 sec football schedule, LSU Tigers, Mississippi St. Bulldogs, Arkansas Razorbacks, Alabama Crimson Tide, Mississippi Rebels, Missouri Tigers, Florida Gators, Kentucky Wildcats, Georgia Bulldogs, Texas A&M Aggies, South Carolina Gamecocks, Vanderbilt Commodores, Auburn Tigers, Tennessee Volunteers

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