SB Nation 2011 College Football Team Previews
Explosive on offense and deep with decent talent on defense, Bobby Petrino's fourth Arkansas squad should be solid and exciting despite the loss of Ryan Mallett. "Solid" isn't good enough to win the SEC West, of course, but that's life in the Southeastern Conference.
Jul 27, 2011 - NOTE: Confused? Don't miss the definitions and footnotes at the bottom. As always, if you don't like numbers, just skip to the words. And be sure to purchase your Football Outsiders Almanac 2011 today! The college portion is available for just $5, and if you pre-order the entire book, you can download the college portion instantly.
SEC! SEC! SEC! SEC!
There was a fantasy going around Big 12 country during those four hours or so this past May (or was it June?) when the conference was harmonious and happy. Have Jerry Jones throw down silly money to try to entice Arkansas and another team (Notre Dame? Notre Dame! Yes!) into joining the fray, and voila, the Big 12 is a mega-power! Time to act and not react! Get on the phone with Jerry!
SEC! SEC! SEC! SEC!
Of course, there were two flaws in this plan. 1) The window of harmony closed a few hours later when everybody in the Big 12 remembered about the Longhorn Network, and the sniping began again. 2) Nobody -- NOBODY -- leaves the SEC. No matter how scary life may be dating the supermodel (and to be sure, life hasn't always been easy for Arkansas in the hilariously rugged SEC West), no matter what kind of trouble she gets into, and no matter the, uh, pressure to perform (I'm regretting this analogy already) ... unless your name is Bobby Dodd, you don't dump her. She dumps you.
SEC! SEC! SEC! SEC!
To be certain, Frank Broyles is not Bobby Dodd. Broyles is and has always been a bottom line kind of guy, and whatever your bottom line is -- ticket sales, TV ratings, wins, or cold hard cash -- the SEC is where you will find it. The long-time UA athletic director knew what he was doing when he steered Arkansas away from the Southwest Conference (Texas' first divorce) and into the SEC two decades ago. The schedule may be terrifying and unforgiving, wins may be hard to come by, and the stakes may be ridiculously high. But at this point, Arkansas wouldn't have it any other way.
Arkansas fielded one of its best teams in decades this past season, but they were still only the third-best team in their own division. Time to rally the troops and try again in 2011.
| Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 13-0 | Final F/+ Rk**: 7 |
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| Date | Opponent | Score | W-L | Adj. Score | Adj. W-L |
| 4-Sep | Tennessee Tech |
44-3 | W | 38.0 - 18.5 | W |
| 11-Sep | UL-Monroe | 31-7 | W | 31.0 - 6.8 | W |
| 18-Sep | at Georgia | 31-24 | W | 38.3 - 28.3 | W |
| 25-Sep | Alabama | 20-24 | L | 44.2 - 26.5 | W |
| 9-Oct | vs Texas A&M | 24-17 | W | 32.6 - 16.9 | W |
| 16-Oct | at Auburn | 43-65 | L | 41.4 - 33.9 | W |
| 23-Oct | Ole Miss | 38-24 | W | 30.1 - 25.0 | W |
| 30-Oct | Vanderbilt | 49-14 | W | 28.9 - 25.7 | W |
| 6-Nov | at South Carolina | 41-20 | W | 40.3 - 16.6 | W |
| 13-Nov | UTEP | 58-21 | W | 50.1 - 25.9 | W |
| 20-Nov | at Mississippi State | 38-31 | W | 40.8 - 27.4 | W |
| 27-Nov | LSU | 31-23 | W | 36.6 - 20.6 | W |
| 4-Jan | vs Ohio State | 26-31 | L | 36.8 - 23.8 | W |
| Category | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk |
| Points Per Game | 36.5 | 17 | 23.4 | 47 |
| Adj. Points Per Game | 37.6 | 10 | 22.8 | 29 |
Arkansas was one of six teams in the country to play well enough to beat a perfectly average team every single week of the season. (The others: Auburn, Boise State, Ohio State, Oklahoma State and TCU.) And aside from a three-week span in October, they played well enough to defeat said average team handily each week. Granted, you don't play many average teams in the SEC West, but the Hogs were still good enough to not only survive in the division that produced the nation's No. 1 and No. 3 teams (according to F/+), but also win ten games for just the second time since they moved to the Southeastern Conference.
In the end, Arkansas won all ten games they played against teams ranked outside of the Top Five (No. 5 Ohio State, ridiculously allowed to play with their suspended players, took them out in the Sugar Bowl), featuring a competent defense and a nuclear offense. Though some stars have departed, quite a few explosive pieces return for 2011. Granted, they are still in the same division as Alabama, Auburn and LSU, and that will probably limit their level of success, but all Bobby Petrino can do is throw a ton of great athletes onto the field and hope that the breaks go their way one year.
| Category | S&P+ Rk | Success Rt. Rk |
PPP+ Rk | |
| OVERALL | 6 | 18 | 2 | |
| RUSHING | 11 | 24 | 7 | Adj. Line Yards: |
| PASSING | 6 | 17 | 5 | 7 |
| Standard Downs | 2 | 10 | 2 | Adj. Sack Rate: |
| Passing Downs | 8 | 21 | 5 | 57 |
| Redzone | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Q1 Rk | 2 | 1st Down Rk | 5 |
| Q2 Rk | 7 | 2nd Down Rk | 6 |
| Q3 Rk | 8 | 3rd Down Rk | 5 |
| Q4 Rk | 14 |
With a towering quarterback, a hulking running back and fast receivers running old-school, deeper routes, the Arkansas offense was rather incredible in 2010. Ryan Mallett (3,869 yards, 9.4 per pass, 65% completion rate, 32 TD, 12 INT) handed the ball to Knile Davis (1,322 yards, 6.5 per carry, +16.5 Adj. POE, 13 TD) and threw to Joe Adams (813 yards, 16.3 per catch, 69% catch rate), Greg Childs (659 yards, 14.3 per catch, 75% catch rate, 6 TD in eight games), Jarius Wright (788 yards, 18.8 per catch, 55% catch rate, 5 TD), Cobi Hamilton (630 yards, 19.7 per catch, 59% catch rate, 6 TD) and tight end D.J. Williams (627 yards, 11.6 per catch, 74% catch rate, 4 TD), and, behind a strong line, they were rarely stopped.
Of that main crew of difference makers, only Mallett, Williams and all-conference tackle DeMarcus Love depart. The top three running backs and top four wide receivers are all back, giving last year's backup quarterback Tyler Wilson (453 yards, 8.9 per catch, 67% completion rate, 4 TD, 3 INT) all sorts of weapons with which to play. The second-most explosive offense in the country last year might regress a bit without Mallett's hand cannon, but Wilson should keep the car running in at least fourth gear.
Granted, it came with some occasional sack problems, but no offense in the country was more aggressive with the downfield passing game than Arkansas. Four of their top five targets averaged at least 14.3 yards per catch an 10.4 yards per target. That's ridiculous. Mallett may have certain mockable qualities, but wow, does he have an arm. Wilson's initial numbers were rather similar -- he had a completion rate two percentage points higher and a per-pass average of 0.5 fewer yards -- but over the long haul we'll see if the aggression in the passing game gets dialed down a notch or two.
Other tidbits:
| Category | S&P+ Rk | Success Rt. Rk |
PPP+ Rk | |
| OVERALL | 29 | 22 | 30 | |
| RUSHING | 26 | 31 | 38 | Adj. Line Yards: |
| PASSING | 19 | 16 | 21 | 34 |
| Standard Downs | 25 | 30 | 21 | Adj. Sack Rate: |
| Passing Downs | 23 | 15 | 25 | 12 |
| Redzone | 41 | 39 | 46 |
| Q1 Rk | 31 | 1st Down Rk | 27 |
| Q2 Rk | 43 | 2nd Down Rk | 42 |
| Q3 Rk | 1 | 3rd Down Rk | 4 |
| Q4 Rk | 86 |
For obvious reasons, the Arkansas offense got a lot of headlines. But the defense still had to be good enough to win games. This was far from the best unit in the SEC, but clearly it got the job done against non-Top Five teams, and it did so while cycling through a large rotation of players. Eight experienced linemen, six experienced defensive backs and four experienced linebackers return for a squad that attacked constantly and game-planned very well. Can they take another step forward in 2011?
Arkansas had a defense that was better in the first and third quarters than in the second and fourth. I tend to regard that situation as one in which the gameplan and adjustments were good, but perhaps the athleticism and conditioning weren't quite solid enough to sustain the quality as the game progressed. Arkansas had the best defense in the country in the third quarter, but they were below-standard in the fourth. I can't imagine this was a problem with conditioning, not considering the massive number of players defensive coordinator Willy Robinson rotated in and out.
Whatever the issues, the overall product this year should be solid. Maybe not spectacular, but solid. Really, only four primary rotation members are gone: end Damario Ambrose (22.5 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks), linebacker Anthony Leon (50.0 tackles, 12.5 TFL/sacks, 3 PBU), safety Rudell Crim (42.5 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 3 INT, 2 PBU) and cornerback Ramon Broadway (30.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 6 PBU). Everybody else is back.
Nowhere is depth more impressive than on a defensive line that both stood up well to run blocking and got after the quarterback. Ends Tenarius Wright (26.0 tackles, 8.0 TFL/sacks) and Jake Bequette (23.5 tackles, 8.5 TFL/sacks) both return, but the true depth is at tackle, where DeQuinta Jones (26.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 2 FF), Alfred Davis (18.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks), Lavunce Askew (16.0 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks), Alfred Davis (18.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks) and Zach Stadther (7.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks in eight games) are all back. There is no star here, but the players above combined for 27.0 TFL/sacks, a solid number considering how many plays the linebackers also made.
Other tidbits:
"Brown Sugar," by Rolling Stones
"Brown Sugar (Fine)," by Mos Def
"I Want A Little Sugar In My Bowl," by Nina Simone
"Pour Some Sugar On Me," by Def Leppard
"Sugar Baby," by Bob Dylan
"Sugar Blaster," by The Starlight Mints
"Sugar Free Jazz," by Soul Coughing
"Sugar Mama," by John Lee Hooker
"Sugarcube," by Yo La Tengo
"Sugartown," by North Mississippi Allstars
Here.
Below is a small handful of projection and change factors most pertinent to the Football Outsiders' preseason projections you will find in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2011.
| Four-Year F/+ Rk | 18 |
| Five-Year Recruiting Rk | 29 |
| TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin**** | +1 / -2 |
| Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) | 13 (6, 7) |
| Yds/Pt Margin***** | -1.6 |
SEC! SEC! SEC! SEC
This year's Arkansas Razorbacks are projected to play like the ninth-best team in the country in this year's FOA 2011. Incredibly, this places them in the lower half of the SEC West (thanks to some unlikely, high Auburn projections). Alabama projects at No. 1, Auburn No. 4 (championship teams typically don't completely fall apart the next season, but they also don't typically lose what Auburn lost) and LSU No. 5. That is just insane.
Already the team with the most consistently difficult schedule in the country, the Hogs won't see a slate any easier this fall. After a couple of warm-ups against Missouri State and New Mexico (a team potentially worse than Missouri State) and a home game against a decent Troy team, the challenges begin. In back-to-back-to-back weeks, they face No. 1 Alabama in Tuscaloosa, No. 28 Texas A&M at Jerry World and No. 4 Auburn in Fayetteville. After a couple of tricky trips to Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, they host No. 13 South Carolina, No. 44 Tennessee and No. 32 Mississippi State before finishing up against No. 5 LSU in Baton Rouge. F.O. projects them to go 9-3 with a Top 10 team. But that's the bed they made when they came to the SEC, and again, they wouldn't have it any other way.
SEC! SEC! SEC! SEC
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* For more on the 'Adj. Score' and 'Adj. Record' measures below, feel free to read this Football Outsiders column. Adj. Score is a look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points, which is strangely satisfying.
** F/+ rankings are the official rankings for the college portion of Football Outsiders. They combine my own S&P+ rankings (based on play-by-play data) with Brian Fremeau's drives-based FEI rankings.
*** What is S&P+? Think of it as an OPS (the "On-Base Plus Slugging" baseball measure) for football. The 'S' stands for success rates, a common Football Outsiders efficiency measure that basically serves as on-base percentage. The 'P' stands for PPP+, an explosiveness measure that stands for EqPts Per Play. The "+" means it has been adjusted for the level of opponent, obviously a key to any good measure in college football. S&P+ is measured for all non-garbage time plays in a given college football game. Plays are counted within the following criteria: when the score is within 28 points in the first quarter, within 24 points in the second quarter, within 21 points in the third quarter, and within 16 points (i.e. two possession) in the fourth quarter. For more about this measure, visit the main S&P+ page at Football Outsiders.
**** Adj. TO Margin is what a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles and unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.
*****Phil Steele has long tracked Yards Per Point as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive Yds/Pt Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.
8 comments
Comments
One quick note
Broderick Green tore his ACL in the spring and won’t be available this fall.
Team Speed Kills -- SBNation's SEC Blog
If you're so inclined, follow me @Year2
by Year2 on Jul 27, 2011 11:01 AM EDT reply actions
Ah, didn't note that one.
Oh well—I’m not even remotely high on him anyway.
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by Bill Connelly on Jul 27, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Anthony Oden was also booted from the team last week
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
by Billy Gomila on Jul 27, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Good lord! Fixed...
…I apparently need better Arkansas news feeds. Or to pay better attention to the ones I have.
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by Bill Connelly on Jul 27, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Another correction for you
Arkansas finished 2nd in the SEC West in 2010, not 3rd. Auburn was 8-0, Arkansas and LSU were 6-2, but Arkansas won the head-to-head matchup giving them 2nd overall.
by Jim Grizzle on Jul 27, 2011 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions
That one was intentional
They were third-best in the F/+ rankings.
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by Bill Connelly on Jul 27, 2011 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
REALITY.
A lot of data on an overachieving LAST year wherein we still managed to — barely — be the third best team in our division (as quoted).
I do NOT anticipate overall improvement with a first year QB, a RB who was invisible for 1/3 of the season, and an offensive line featuring a 5th year career backup, a JUCO transfer, and a true Freshman at tackle(s).
Defensively, our 3rd quarter rank is impressive, which is a lot like saying you bat .300 i the 6th inning. Our 4th quarter rank was HORRID and smacks of a lack of leadership: which didn’t change.
My alma mater is likely to regress as the bottom line.
by Zeke_in_KC on Jul 27, 2011 3:28 PM EDT reply actions
Zeke, why do you even read/comment on articles about Arkansas??
**Arkansas finished SECOND in the toughest division in college football
**that “first year QB” is a redshirt JUNIOR who has been in Petrino’s system and would’ve more than likely started his freshman year had he not gotten Mono.
**the “invisible RB” LED ALL RBs IN RUSHING LAST YEAR after only starting the last half of the season.
**OL may struggle, but they will be ready
**that HORRID defense improved from a ranking in the 80s to mid 30s and returns quite a few starters. No reason they don’t continue to get better.
There is NO WAY you are an actual FAN of Arkansas. All you do is run your mouth about how bad they are. Heck, you’ve even been banned from an Arkansas message board.
by uam_hog on Jul 28, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
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