The college conference realignment news is changing by the hour, so QUICK, hurry up and read our breakdown of exactly what we know as of right now. It'll certainly be different by tomorrow.
Sep 21, 2011 - At about 5:00 p.m. CT yesterday, I tweeted this in regard to the news of Oklahoma's list of "demands" for staying in the Big 12 ("Fire Dan Beebe," etc.) and the assumption by some that if they're willing to stay in the Big 12, they must have been turned away by the Pac-12:
@SBN_BillC
Bill Connelly I highly doubt that OU's "No Beebe" clause is proof of Pac-12 pushback. They've been saying the Big 12 (supposedly) has a shot all along.
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At 6:00 p.m. CT last night, I started jotting down a structure for a "Why Mizzou?" column in today's Tailgate space. The "Mizzou has an agreement to move to the SEC as soon as the Big 12 falls apart" narrative had taken hold.
At 7:00 p.m. CT last night, I joined my friend Allen at Blatant Homerism for what was supposed to be a podcast previewing Saturday night's Missouri-Oklahoma football game but turned into half-football, half-realignment.
By 10:00 p.m. CT: incorrect, moot and moot.
God, I hate love hate conference realignment.
Last night, the Pac-12 announced they were not interested in expanding at this time. That put an end the rumors of Oklahoma's and Oklahoma State's departures to what would become the Pac-14, which also meant that, in the short-term at least, the Big 12 is allowed to continue living. There are now rumors of five-year agreements from OU and Texas to stay put.I called the Big 12 "that damn zombie conference" on Monday, and ... the zombie continues to lurch forward. For now.
Instead of trying to figure out what happens next, let's just try to figure out what we currently know.
@johnehoover
John E. Hoover Our source says Boren wanted either BYU, TCU or Air Force added to Big 12 to get 10, or all 3 for 12. That doesn't change. #Sooners
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If there is any sort of agreement by Oklahoma to stay in the Big 12 -- if, for instance, the Sooners don't just turn right around and try to escape to the SEC -- then expansion is on the horizon. We know BYU is on the list of candidates. Air Force, too. But if the Big 12 hurries, the Big East is certainly vulnerable for plucking. We know that West Virginia is attempting to flee, we know that TCU is a bit worried about their impending move to the Big East, and we know that Louisville and Cincinnati make at least a little bit of geographic sense. If Oklahoma gets any concessions from Texas whatsoever in terms of conference equality (good luck with that) and the conference adds either one or three (or, hell, five) from this list, then suddenly the Big 12 becomes, if not stable, then almost stable. Of course, we thought the conference was "almost stable" two months ago, too.
The Big East's roster is in flux, and could continue to be, but no worries! Commissioner John Marinatto is on the case. The conference is already discussing whether to bring in Navy and/or Air Force (which means that there's a small chance a bidding war breaks out for AFA, and you should really let that sentence sink in for a moment), while Central Florida's viability has been touted often, and East Carolina has applied for membership 27 times, making the Pirates the Milhouse Van Houten of conference realignment. There are no potential home runs out there for the conference, however.
Even in an ESPN article titled "Schools make pledge to stay in Big East," UConn's current intentions are pretty clear:
A source with direct knowledge of the meeting told ESPN.com's Andy Katz that UConn didn't commit to remain in the league and is still actively pursuing membership in the ACC.
But the source said that with the Big 12 likely staying together at least nine schools other than the Huskies may have to wait for the ACC to decide if it will add two more schools to extend the league's membership to 16.
"The ACC is the preferred place for (Connecticut)," the source said. "That hasn't changed."
If the ACC adds Connecticut and, perhaps, Rutgers (if Joe Paterno doesn't get his way first), then the Big East is in serious, serious trouble. Upon Pittsburgh's and Syracuse's departures, the conference is down to seven teams, including TCU. If two more leave, that's five, and that's trouble. Maybe that empowers the Big 12 to bring the remaining five into the fold?
If the Big 12 stays together, then there isn't necessarily any reason for Baylor to continue with their lawsuit threats, and eventually Texas A&M can join the conference. I guess this technically isn't a "What We Know" item, since Baylor could by all means continue acting like Baylor in this scenario. Regardless, if Texas A&M is eventually allowed to join, then the SEC will probably move to 14 teams at some point. You can figure out how to create an eight-game conference schedule for 13 teams, but it is clearly not optimal.
So if the SEC has already turned down West Virginia, and if Missouri is unavailable because the Big 12 didn't actually fall apart, then what happens? Do they bypass the alleged "gentlemen's agreement" forbidding them from adding a school from a state that currently houses an SEC team and go after Florida State, or Clemson, or even Louisville? We've never been clear if said agreement is still a real thing or not, so maybe this becomes the most likely scenario.
Do they eventually go after Missouri anyway (since Mizzou's departure wouldn't be a crippling blow to the Big 12 if Oklahoma and Texas have committed to each other)? Despite the reputation Mizzou was given last year after they allegedly "threw themselves at the Big Ten," chancellor Brady Deaton is one of the people fighting the hardest to keep the Big 12 alive, so if he gets his way, Mizzou probably isn't going anywhere.
Do they say "To Hell with you: we're the SEC, and we can play with 13 teams if we want to"? It is technically doable.
Do they, as I've mentioned before, take their cue from elevators, skip the No. 13 altogether, and introduce A&M as No. 14?
Even if the Big East is eventually picked apart, which isn't a given, it does appear possible that at least five of the current six BCS conferences could stick together.
At least, until some new, completely unforeseen piece of information emerges today and once again renders moot everything I am currently saying.
At this point, we are pretty sure we know what killed the Pac-12's current ideas for expansion:
Scott met with Texas officials last weekend in Los Angeles. But a source indicated the commissioner left the meetings believing the school’s newly established Longhorn Network was a significant obstacle that couldn’t be overcome.
Pac-12 members had agreed to equally share all revenue and to cede all media rights to the league. Sources were adamant that the Pac-12 would not allow any member to retain its own rights or revenue.
In the statement, Scott indicated as much, taking what appeared to be a very thinly veiled shot at Texas: "We have a strong conference structure and culture of equality that we are committed to preserve."
If circumstances change in the future -- if the Longhorn Network fails to serve Texas well, or if it turns out that the financial viability of a 14-team conference indeed outweighs that of a 12-team conference (thereby making Oklahoma and Oklahoma State solid options all by their lonesome) -- then the Pac-12 could quite obviously decide to go ahead and move on further expansion. That could get this ball rolling all over again.
Then UCF and BYU on Friday. Then Oklahoma State-Texas A&M, LSU-West Virginia, Arkansas-Alabama, Florida State-Clemson, Missouri-Oklahoma, etc., on Saturday. This column was intended to become something of a "topic du jour" space -- hopefully tomorrow the topic becomes actual football.
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Comments
OK needs to exercize its strength
OK should bind with existing B12 schools, get BYU TCU and perhaps Bosie, and drop TX……..Tx will end up somewhere else or be independent and that is fine.
OK is the premiers football team in B12 and should not compromise to TX. Instead the entire B12 needs new center, this makes all the sense.
If OK makes any move to another conference it should be to BIG10.
Grow with us, at QuantumCrops.com
by nubig10 on Sep 21, 2011 9:59 AM EDT reply actions
PAC-12...
…I love you. Thanks for putting a stop to the stupidity that my Big 10 started.
I think this Oklahoma person above might right that the Big 12 schools might be better served to throw out Texas than to continue with unequal revenue sharing. That’d be an interesting gamble, throwing them out and adding BYU, TCU and Boise. Louisville wouldn’t be so crazy either and would certainly be fun for basketball. Or maybe add one of the lesser Texas schools as an FU to UT.
If the Horns went independent, they’d likely play a lot of the same teams they do now and could do pretty well for themselves.
The SEC can certainly afford to just wait and see who the most attractive available candidate is, but it’s not like 13 teams is SO difficult.
by witless chum on Sep 21, 2011 10:16 AM EDT reply actions
So the PAC-12 have decided not to expand, thus largely leaving Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech in the Big-12. That still leaves 2 thorny issues and 2 uncertainties.
The two thorny issues are conference revenue sharing agreements, equal or unequal. If the conference is to regain stability, rather than going through this drama and turmoil again, it will need to move to equal conference revenue sharing. Doing so will facilitate the conference members to act as a team rather than continuing on every school for itself. Which brings to bear the next thorny issue, which is the Long Horn Network (LHN), U of Texas and ESPN 300 million dollars 10 year partnership sport channel. The LHN, and UT’s attitude regarding it, was the essential reason why Texas A&M left, this is the primary reason why the PAC-12 decision against expanding to 16 with OU, OSU, TTU, and UT. If UT and the LHN cannot or will not become compliant to the Big-12 expectations, then UT should not be a football member of the Big-12. UT will be fine as a football independent and should not have a problem scheduling annual games with OU, TA&M, TTU or any other regional teams. UT would have no problems arranging for games with USC, UCLA, Stanford, or Notre Dame. In many ways both UT and the Big-12 would both be better off with an independent UT.
The other uncertainty is Texas A&M (the first is whether UT should go independent or not). If revenue sharing and UT/LHN will comply with the conference, then TA&M may decide to stay. IF UT is independent then TA&M will likely stay in the Big-12.
Once the thorns and uncertainties are clarified, the Big-12 should expand to at least 12, if not 14 or even 16. With either UT or TA&M the next three teams the Big-12 needs to get back to 12, and thus host a conference championship game, would be to add BYU, TCU, and Boise State. All these are competitive teams with national standings. I believe though stopping at 12 would be a mistake and the conference should go to 14 with the addition of Air Force or Colorado State (for the Colorado market) and Tulane (for the Louisiana/New Orleans market) or USF & UCF (for Florida).
by fracas on Sep 21, 2011 11:58 AM EDT reply actions
Greed is a terrible thing
Patience…….Patience……Patience……..Too many rummors and not enough facts. I wouldn’t believe any sceniaros until a handwriting expert verified the signatures on any agreement. Playmakers are out…….beancounters are in……….What do you want the balance sheet to say? I think the SEC is in the best position for a long term conference realignment. Somebody is going to get real mad at their choices and do something stupid shortly.
by strickinms on Sep 21, 2011 2:30 PM EDT reply actions
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