BATON ROUGE, LA - NOVEMBER 25: Linebacker Lamin Barrow #57 and quarterback Zach Mettenberger #8 of the LSU Tigers and the rest of their teammates run out onto the field before taking on the Arkansas Razorbacks at Tiger Stadium on November 25, 2011 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
What if we used some advanced stats to come up with ideal team ratings for NCAA Football 13? Let's do just that! Follow @SBNationCFB Follow @JasonKirkSBN
EA Sports' NCAA Football 13 comes out this week, making for a holiday on the college football calendar and a landmark that means the real-life season is near.
Team and player ratings have already leaked, raising an eyebrow or two along the way. They're fine for the most part, and aren't really going to stop anybody from dumping the regular annual allotment of hours into this game.
But let's say EA Sports hired us to provide ratings for all 124 FBS teams. This means Overall, Offensive and Defensive ratings for each, scaled from 99 for the best team to like 50-ish for really bad teams. Also, a Prestige rating, which affects recruiting and which coaches a school can hire -- basically a resources rating.
For the first three, I fiddled with Football Outsiders' 2012 F/+ projections, which you'll be able to get your hands on soon (buy the book!). FO likes Alabama the best, while I have LSU on top, but even they're not worthy of a 99 if we're accounting for all-time teams -- a 99, to me, means a team like 2001 Miami or 1995 Nebraska. By that scale, I might still have LSU too high.
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Among the more noteworthy tumbles were Texas' offense, Michigan's defense, Michigan State's offense, Arkansas' defense, Wisconsin's defense, Utah's offense and Kansas State's everything (but numbers are irrelevant when it comes to K-State), while just about everybody got bumped down a little bit.
For Prestige, I took a look at recent recruiting rankings, revenue, coaching salaries and so forth. Teams were more likely to go up in the Prestige column than in the others. Yep, Boise State's takes a big hit, but that just means you'll have to be as great a video game coach as Chris Petersen is a real-life coach.
That's pretty much the whole story. Side by side for each category, recommended rankings and the rankings NCAA 13 uses -- click any column to re-order it:
| Team | Conf. | Rec. Overall | NCAA 13 Overall | Rec. Offense | NCAA 13 Offense | Rec. Defense | NCAA 13 Defense | Rec. Prestige | NCAA 13 Prestige |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | SEC | 97 | 99 | 92 | 92 | 96 | 95 | 6 | 6 |
| Alabama | SEC | 96 | 97 | 93 | 92 | 97 | 95 | 6 | 6 |
| Oklahoma | Big 12 | 95 | 97 | 94 | 95 | 90 | 93 | 6 | 6 |
| Oregon | Pac-12 | 94 | 99 | 93 | 94 | 86 | 95 | 5 | 6 |
| Florida State | ACC | 93 | 97 | 80 | 92 | 94 | 95 | 6 | 5 |
| Georgia | SEC | 93 | 97 | 87 | 95 | 87 | 91 | 6 | 5 |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 93 | 95 | 81 | 89 | 93 | 95 | 6 | 6 |
| USC | Pac-12 | 93 | 99 | 95 | 99 | 76 | 91 | 6 | 6 |
| Florida | SEC | 92 | 91 | 76 | 84 | 93 | 93 | 6 | 6 |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 92 | 95 | 87 | 92 | 87 | 91 | 5 | 5 |
| Stanford | Pac-12 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 91 | 76 | 89 | 5 | 5 |
| TCU | Big 12 | 92 | 93 | 88 | 94 | 82 | 87 | 4 | 5 |
| Texas | Big 12 | 92 | 99 | 74 | 91 | 95 | 99 | 6 | 6 |
| Notre Dame | Ind. | 91 | 97 | 83 | 94 | 83 | 95 | 6 | 6 |
| Arkansas | SEC | 90 | 95 | 91 | 95 | 74 | 87 | 4 | 5 |
| Michigan | Big Ten | 91 | 97 | 88 | 94 | 80 | 91 | 6 | 6 |
| South Carolina | SEC | 90 | 95 | 80 | 92 | 85 | 91 | 5 | 4 |
| Virginia Tech | ACC | 90 | 95 | 74 | 88 | 89 | 99 | 4 | 5 |
| West Virginia | Big 12 | 89 | 87 | 92 | 91 | 70 | 76 | 4 | 4 |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 89 | 99 | 94 | 97 | 68 | 95 | 5 | 5 |
| Auburn | SEC | 88 | 93 | 79 | 89 | 81 | 91 | 6 | 6 |
| Clemson | ACC | 88 | 97 | 89 | 95 | 70 | 91 | 5 | 5 |
| Michigan State | Big Ten | 88 | 93 | 73 | 89 | 85 | 89 | 5 | 4 |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 88 | 91 | 81 | 91 | 78 | 87 | 5 | 5 |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 88 | 93 | 84 | 92 | 75 | 87 | 5 | 4 |
| Boise State | MWC | 87 | 89 | 85 | 89 | 72 | 82 | 3 | 6 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 87 | 89 | 77 | 88 | 79 | 84 | 5 | 4 |
| Missouri | SEC | 86 | 89 | 83 | 89 | 72 | 84 | 4 | 4 |
| South Florida | Big East | 86 | 81 | 72 | 80 | 82 | 80 | 3 | 3 |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 85 | 87 | 85 | 86 | 68 | 84 | 4 | 4 |
| North Carolina | ACC | 85 | 91 | 83 | 89 | 70 | 87 | 4 | 4 |
| Penn State | Big Ten | 85 | 89 | 70 | 86 | 83 | 89 | 6 | 5 |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 85 | 87 | 86 | 89 | 66 | 82 | 3 | 3 |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 84 | 91 | 78 | 89 | 73 | 89 | 5 | 4 |
| Utah | Pac-12 | 84 | 95 | 61 | 92 | 91 | 91 | 4 | 4 |
| Miami (FL) | ACC | 83 | 91 | 86 | 88 | 64 | 89 | 5 | 6 |
| Rutgers | Big East | 83 | 87 | 68 | 83 | 80 | 87 | 3 | 3 |
| BYU | Ind. | 82 | 89 | 69 | 89 | 77 | 84 | 4 | 4 |
| Pittsburgh | Big East | 82 | 85 | 68 | 89 | 79 | 76 | 3 | 3 |
| California | Pac-12 | 81 | 85 | 69 | 89 | 77 | 76 | 4 | 3 |
| Cincinnati | Big East | 81 | 89 | 70 | 84 | 74 | 87 | 3 | 3 |
| Houston | CUSA | 81 | 87 | 86 | 84 | 61 | 86 | 3 | 3 |
| Louisville | Big East | 81 | 87 | 74 | 84 | 71 | 86 | 4 | 3 |
| Mississippi State | SEC | 81 | 87 | 63 | 84 | 83 | 86 | 3 | 3 |
| Baylor | Big 12 | 80 | 87 | 86 | 88 | 60 | 84 | 3 | 3 |
| Boston College | ACC | 80 | 85 | 64 | 83 | 81 | 86 | 3 | 3 |
| Kansas State | Big 12 | 79 | 91 | 77 | 92 | 65 | 86 | 4 | 3 |
| Southern Miss | CUSA | 79 | 83 | 66 | 81 | 76 | 80 | 2 | 2 |
| UCF | CUSA | 79 | 85 | 68 | 84 | 74 | 82 | 2 | 3 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 79 | 77 | 66 | 80 | 74 | 74 | 3 | 2 |
| Illinois | Big Ten | 78 | 83 | 57 | 81 | 89 | 82 | 4 | 3 |
| N.C. State | ACC | 77 | 91 | 70 | 89 | 67 | 87 | 3 | 3 |
| Tulsa | CUSA | 77 | 91 | 66 | 89 | 71 | 86 | 2 | 2 |
| Virginia | ACC | 77 | 89 | 69 | 88 | 68 | 84 | 4 | 3 |
| Washington | Pac-12 | 77 | 93 | 79 | 92 | 61 | 86 | 4 | 4 |
| UCLA | Pac-12 | 76 | 87 | 70 | 88 | 66 | 82 | 4 | 2 |
| Arizona State | Pac-12 | 75 | 85 | 71 | 84 | 63 | 80 | 3 | 3 |
| Connecticut | Big East | 75 | 83 | 60 | 83 | 80 | 80 | 3 | 3 |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 75 | 83 | 58 | 81 | 82 | 84 | 3 | 2 |
| Oregon State | Pac-12 | 75 | 79 | 62 | 81 | 74 | 76 | 3 | 2 |
| Louisiana Tech | WAC | 74 | 81 | 62 | 81 | 73 | 78 | 2 | 1 |
| Arizona | Pac-12 | 73 | 83 | 77 | 81 | 58 | 84 | 3 | 3 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 72 | 83 | 55 | 83 | 82 | 80 | 3 | 2 |
| Navy | Ind. | 72 | 77 | 73 | 77 | 59 | 76 | 2 | 3 |
| Nevada | MWC | 72 | 83 | 67 | 83 | 62 | 80 | 2 | 3 |
| Maryland | ACC | 71 | 85 | 60 | 80 | 69 | 87 | 3 | 3 |
| Northern Illinois | MAC | 71 | 79 | 65 | 78 | 63 | 76 | 3 | 2 |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 71 | 87 | 73 | 86 | 58 | 84 | 3 | 3 |
| Ohio | MAC | 71 | 81 | 65 | 81 | 62 | 80 | 2 | 2 |
| Purdue | Big Ten | 71 | 87 | 62 | 84 | 66 | 84 | 3 | 3 |
| Toledo | MAC | 71 | 83 | 65 | 81 | 62 | 80 | 2 | 2 |
| Western Michigan | MAC | 71 | 77 | 70 | 78 | 59 | 74 | 2 | 1 |
| Duke | ACC | 70 | 83 | 68 | 84 | 60 | 78 | 2 | 2 |
| FIU | Sun Belt | 70 | 85 | 57 | 83 | 75 | 82 | 2 | 1 |
| SMU | CUSA | 70 | 89 | 57 | 89 | 73 | 84 | 2 | 3 |
| Air Force | MWC | 69 | 75 | 68 | 75 | 59 | 74 | 2 | 3 |
| Temple | Big East | 69 | 81 | 59 | 83 | 69 | 84 | 2 | 2 |
| Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 68 | 81 | 59 | 86 | 66 | 74 | 2 | 2 |
| Bowling Green | MAC | 68 | 75 | 61 | 75 | 63 | 76 | 1 | 2 |
| East Carolina | CUSA | 68 | 83 | 62 | 80 | 63 | 82 | 2 | 2 |
| Iowa State | Big 12 | 68 | 83 | 60 | 81 | 65 | 82 | 3 | 2 |
| Syracuse | Big East | 68 | 81 | 62 | 83 | 62 | 78 | 3 | 3 |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 68 | 81 | 62 | 84 | 62 | 76 | 2 | 2 |
| Minnesota | Big Ten | 67 | 77 | 61 | 75 | 62 | 76 | 3 | 2 |
| Central Michigan | MAC | 66 | 73 | 63 | 77 | 59 | 69 | 2 | 2 |
| Fresno State | MWC | 66 | 87 | 67 | 89 | 57 | 78 | 2 | 2 |
| Marshall | CUSA | 66 | 73 | 59 | 75 | 63 | 71 | 2 | 2 |
| Miami (OH) | MAC | 66 | 79 | 61 | 80 | 61 | 74 | 2 | 2 |
| San Diego State | MWC | 66 | 83 | 60 | 84 | 62 | 76 | 2 | 3 |
| Kansas | Big 12 | 65 | 79 | 60 | 80 | 61 | 76 | 3 | 2 |
| Utah State | WAC | 65 | 75 | 62 | 78 | 59 | 73 | 2 | 1 |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 64 | 77 | 60 | 77 | 61 | 76 | 2 | 2 |
| Hawai'i | MWC | 63 | 79 | 60 | 78 | 59 | 80 | 2 | 2 |
| Troy | Sun Belt | 63 | 73 | 58 | 74 | 61 | 73 | 2 | 2 |
| Western Kentucky | Sun Belt | 63 | 73 | 57 | 74 | 63 | 73 | 1 | 1 |
| Ball State | MAC | 62 | 73 | 60 | 77 | 59 | 71 | 1 | 2 |
| Colorado | Pac-12 | 62 | 83 | 59 | 80 | 60 | 82 | 3 | 2 |
| Kent State | MAC | 62 | 71 | 45 | 69 | 82 | 74 | 1 | 1 |
| UL-Monroe | Sun Belt | 62 | 69 | 58 | 74 | 61 | 65 | 1 | 1 |
| UL-Lafayette | Sun Belt | 61 | 77 | 63 | 81 | 54 | 71 | 2 | 1 |
| Washington State | Pac-12 | 61 | 79 | 62 | 83 | 56 | 74 | 3 | 1 |
| Army | Ind. | 60 | 73 | 56 | 75 | 60 | 71 | 2 | 1 |
| Colorado State | MWC | 60 | 83 | 54 | 81 | 62 | 80 | 2 | 2 |
| Eastern Michigan | MAC | 60 | 77 | 54 | 78 | 62 | 73 | 1 | 1 |
| UTEP | CUSA | 60 | 75 | 60 | 74 | 57 | 76 | 1 | 2 |
| Wyoming | MWC | 60 | 79 | 56 | 78 | 60 | 80 | 2 | 2 |
| Buffalo | MAC | 59 | 71 | 55 | 75 | 60 | 69 | 1 | 1 |
| Rice | CUSA | 58 | 73 | 53 | 75 | 61 | 73 | 2 | 2 |
| North Texas | Sun Belt | 57 | 69 | 53 | 70 | 61 | 69 | 1 | 1 |
| Middle Tennessee | Sun Belt | 56 | 65 | 53 | 70 | 59 | 61 | 2 | 1 |
| San Jose State | WAC | 56 | 73 | 53 | 75 | 59 | 73 | 2 | 1 |
| Tulane | CUSA | 56 | 65 | 51 | 69 | 61 | 63 | 2 | 1 |
| UAB | CUSA | 56 | 65 | 59 | 69 | 54 | 65 | 1 | 1 |
| Florida Atlantic | Sun Belt | 54 | 60 | 43 | 60 | 69 | 63 | 1 | 1 |
| Memphis | CUSA | 54 | 61 | 50 | 66 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 1 |
| Idaho | WAC | 53 | 65 | 47 | 64 | 61 | 67 | 1 | 1 |
| UMass | MAC | 53 | 63 | 52 | 67 | 55 | 61 | 1 | 1 |
| Akron | MAC | 52 | 63 | 44 | 67 | 62 | 61 | 1 | 1 |
| UNLV | MWC | 52 | 63 | 48 | 67 | 59 | 61 | 2 | 2 |
| New Mexico | MWC | 50 | 65 | 47 | 64 | 58 | 69 | 1 | 1 |
| New Mexico State | WAC | 50 | 65 | 52 | 70 | 52 | 60 | 1 | 1 |
| UTSA | WAC | 48 | 63 | 52 | 66 | 52 | 63 | 1 | 1 |
| South Alabama | Sun Belt | 47 | N/A | 50 | N/A | 52 | N/A | 1 | N/A |
| Texas State | WAC | 46 | 65 | 49 | 67 | 51 | 65 | 1 | 1 |
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