SB Nation - Brandon Cox

Kentucky 21 @ Auburn 14: Postmortem

Truzenzuzex — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 03:19:17 -0000

This man (Auburn coach Gene Chizik) is not smiling here, nor is he smiling now.

I knew we had a shot at this game. I said it early in the year, and I believed it coming in. This UK team, despite it's issues, is a very tough out for any team not named Alabama or Florida in the SEC. That's real. That's the truth.

I want to thank Auburn for their effort. This is a big loss for them, and the rest of the season does them no favors. But they played hard, if imperfectly and with a ton of terribly costly penalties that are usually the province of Kentucky. I'm not going to blow sunshine up their hind parts -- for some reason, the roles were reversed this week and it was the Tigers who shot themselves in the foot. Auburn had a chance to win this game, and they surrendered it with a whimper, rather than a growl. Gene Chizik will have a lot to talk about after this one.

But for the Wildcats, it was a much-needed victory after a very tough four-game stretch that saw them lose their All-American cornerback and starting quarterback to injury, and prompted Rich Brooks to start a true freshman at QB in an SEC road game against a team who has a 15-game winning streak against the Wildcats. I'm going to say it is an understatement to say that the Wildcats had the deck stacked firmly against them.

Let's be honest -- the defense really was the difference in this game. Against the #2 offense in the SEC, Kentucky played about as well as it is possible to play against them defensively. UK denied Chris Todd, a Kentuckian from Elizabethtown, any hope of having a good game. Todd helped out a lot by making pretty much nothing but poor throws, and UK made the Tigers pay by playing solid defense.

I can go on and on and on, but I will settle for bullet points, as usual:

Morgan Newton may not have done that much, but he showed why he was such a highly touted player with his strong arm and powerful body. He is a freshman, and it showed.
Will Fidler gets the game ball, not because of any amazing stuff, but because of the circumstances in which he managed to excel. He showed terrific leadership, and made a huge drive-saving fourth-down play that I will remember a long time.
Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke don't need game balls -- they could win it every game. They do what they do, and frankly, they did it tonight.
How much better is Randall Burden with Paul Warford on the field? Amazing.
Micah Johnson is a creature from another world. He is like the alien in Predator -- indomiatble.
Winston Guy needs a butt-kicking. He hits a guy, but refuses to wrap them up. If I'm Steve Brown, I'm going to go all Coach Boone on his butt. He is way too good to be giving up big plays when he hits hard but fails to finish.
Our D-line has played better, but to their credit, they rarely lost containment. That's why Auburn had very few big plays.
Chris Matthews is getting better every game. He is on the same path as Stevie Johnson, only a little earlier.
Sam Maxwell is a stud. He made so many great form tackles, open field an otherwise, I lost count.
Our special teams made two mistakes, and about five great plays. On balance, I'd say that is pretty good, most games. But both their mistakes resulted in an Auburn TD -- the missed blocking assignment on the field goal, and the pathetic Ryan Tydlacka punt.
The most unspoken great player in SEC history, at least the part I remember, is John Conner. He just de-cleats people when he blocks. I wish he could play for UK forever.
The UK offensive line might be the best in the league. Senior O-line players make one heck of a difference.
Kentucky had one (1) penalty. With a freshman quarterback, or with a long-time backup. That's gobsmacking.

That's enough. Add your observations to the celebration.

Is this a great weekend or what?? Go, 'CATS!

Five Questions With Arkansas Expats

mlmintampa — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 19:00:27 -0000

We exchanged questions and answers with SB Nation Arkansas writers Arkansas Expats (which I want to read Celebrity Jeopardy style as Ar Kansan Sex Pats). We did not ask which slimmed down Arkansas politician do they like the best; Bill Clinton or Mike Huckabee. On to the questions;

1. Arkansas held Auburn to 23 points and only 133 yards passing. Have they figured out something on defense or was the game last week a fluke?

That's a very good question, and unfortunately nobody quite knows for sure. What we do know is that the defense was absolutely horrific against Georgia, very bad against Alabama, decent against Texas A&M (which came into the game with a top-ranked offense) and pretty good against Auburn (except in the 3rd quarter, when they resorted to their early season form).

So, the trends are at least moving in the right direction and I do feel like the defense is better now than it was at the beginning of the year. But, we still give up way too many big plays and the ceiling for this defense isn't all that high...at best it will be a competent "bend, but don't break" unit rather than one that actually wins games. So, no one will be confusing us with the 1985 Chicago Bears (or 2009 Florida Gators) any time soon.

2. Arkansas is top-15 nationally in scoring and total offense. Was this expected in year two of Petrino?

Pretty much...the anticipation of a high-powered offense, particularly a passing one, is what made Hog fans so excited when Petrino originally came on board and what's given us the strength to shake off approximately 8 billion "Petrino is going to take a plane to [insert team name here] at halftime" jokes.

Last year was very much a transitional period, but this year with some better talent at the skill positions and Ryan Mallett coming in at QB fans had pretty high expectations for the offense. So far those expectations have been met and then some...with the ominous exception of the running game, which has been mostly shaky.

3. Five players are in double digits for catches and six in triple digits for yards. Does Mallett have a go to guy, or is it whoever is open?

We do have the benefit of a really deep and talented receiving corps (which is good because they keep getting hurt). Mallett hasn't singled out one person as a go to guy, but does seem to favor a trio of sophomores - Joe Adams, Jarius Wright and Greg Childs - all of whom have made multiple big plays and have pretty gaudy stats.

The good news for you and bad news for us is that, out of that trio, only one is at full strength. Wright had a minor concussion against Auburn and will probably play at Florida, but he's still being tested. And Adams had what was termed as a "mild stroke" last week, which is obviously a scary thing. Word is that he's doing better, but no one knows when he'll be back on the field (if at all)...definitely not against Florida.

4. Arkansas leans on their passing game more than any other SEC team. If Florida's secondary can lock up Mallett, what chance do the Razorbacks have to run the ball?

As I noted earlier, the running game has struggled a bit this year. We actually did really well on the ground against Auburn's porous D, but getting anything going against the Gators will obviously be incredibly tough.

The good news for the Hogs is that we have a very good running back - Michael Smith, who was 2nd in the SEC in rushing yards last year. The bad news is that he's banged up after suffering a hamstring injury against Auburn and has only been practicing in limited capacity. Without him playing (and playing well) our already small chance of a victory drops down very close to zero.

To answer your question, I'm sure the Florida defense will go after Mallett and have some success - particularly your D line versus our O line. So, to negate that and open up the passing game in general we'll need to get the running game going. It's possible - Bobby Petrino is a smart guy and I'm sure he's spent a lot of time thinking about this - but I'm not betting my mortgage on it.

5. Mallett isn't 2006 Brandon Cox or 2008 Jevon Snead, right?

Ha. Well, when all is said and done I think Mallett will actually wind up a much better QB than either of those guys - both because of his freakish arm and the fact that he's playing in an offense perfectly geared towards his talents. But, since I suspect you're mainly concerned with avoiding an untimely upset like the kind those two dished out, I'll say that Tim Tebow probably won't feel the need to make any frame worthy emotional promises after the game.

I do think Arkansas has a better offense than any of the teams you've faced so far this year (hopefully we'll find the end zone more than, say, LSU) but I'm also sure your defense is quite capable of locking it down enough for Tebow and company to do their thing against our less-than-nasty D. In the end, I think the Hogs will perform better than they did against Alabama but, unless Florida completely falls asleep out there I think you guys will do just fine in avoiding a Cox/Snead scenario.

The Virginia Tech Preview: Final Thoughts

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 14:00:51 -0000

Editor's Note: This is the fourth installment in a four-piece series that will give an in-depth preview of the individual unit match-ups, as well as a special teams preview, and finally ending on Friday with a final wrap-up before the two teams face off on Saturday night.

Part 1: Tide Offense v. Hokie Defense

Part 2: Tide Defense v. Hokie Offense

Part 3: Special Teams Preview

Now that we've taken an in-depth look at all three phases of the game in previewing the season opener against Virginia Tech, let's close things out by taking one final look at the game.

First and foremost, I feel it should be noted that this is not Clemson. Period. I think the overwhelming majority of Alabama fans understand that, but it's a point that should be reiterated just in case. Clemson was a 7-6 team a year ago that got their head coach fired, and for all their pre-season hype, they were a weak team at the line of scrimmage that we mowed over without them really giving much of a fight. Again, this Virginia Tech team is not Clemson, period. The Hokies are a better team from top-to-bottom, they love playing physical football, and Frank Beamer and company could coach circles around Tommy Bowden. And finally, if nothing else, rest assured this Virginia Tech won't roll over and play dead like Clemson did a year ago. If nothing else, I can guarantee you that this team will fight 'til they drop. That lunch pail you will see over on the Hokie sideline is a bit of a gimmick, to be sure, but there is a lot of truth to be found in what it represents.

Furthermore, don't underestimate the value of good coaching, and to that end don't underestimate Frank Beamer. He will likely never get the credit he truly deserves because he, probably, will never win a national championship, never coach a traditional powerhouse program, or never coach in a big media market. Nevertheless, what Beamer has done in his 20+ years at Virginia Tech is nothing short of amazing, and truth be told he's clearly one of the greatest college football coaches of his generation. Sure he wins ugly, but the goal of the game is to win and the aesthetic value of exactly how you achieve that end result is wholly meaningless. The only even somewhat negative thing I can think about Beamer is that I hate that our own fanbase was so adamant in 1996 that Mike Dubose be hired that it ended any legitimate chance we had of pursuing Beamer, but of course that is no actual criticism of Beamer himself.

Those two points established, however, I do find that the Hokies are still a difficult team to gauge. They generally play ugly football, but they still win a lot of games (10+ wins each year since 2004). Of course, though, playing in the ACC they rarely face an elite team -- truth be told, the ACC hasn't turned out an elite team since Florida State way back in 2000 -- and many of their bigger non-conference match-ups have not gone well. LSU annihilated them two years ago in Baton Rouge, a year that was capped off by a loss to Kansas in the Orange Bowl. They did have a big lead in the 2006 Peach Bowl against Georgia, but choked late and ultimately lost to a pretty mediocre Georgia team 31-24. A couple of years prior to that, in 2004, they lost to both USC and Auburn at neutral sites. The biggest win they have had lately, of course, came last year against Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl, but even that win is of suspect quality. The Bearcats earned a berth in the Orange Bowl thanks to winning the Big East -- though that had as much to do with the post-Petrino collapse of Louisville and the post-Rodriguez collapse of West Virginia than anything that the Bearcats themselves did -- but there is a legitimate question now as to whether or not the Big East even deserves a guaranteed BCS bid, and in any event Cincinnati's resume in 2008 is marred by blowout losses to Oklahoma and UConn, plus a squeaker win over Akron. Again, that's the biggest win, but even it's of suspect quality. And moreover, the Hokies weren't a flawless team even a year ago, as their resume is dotted with losses to East Carolina and Miami.

On the other hand, the sheer number of wins that the Hokies have been able to post for years on end cannot be underestimated, and for all of the SEC chest thumping, the ACC isn't as bad as many would like to make it out to be. No they never have any elite teams, but they do always produce their share of fairly good, quality teams, and consistently beating those team in the manner that the Hokies have certainly must count for something. Moreover, their can be no real questioning that the Hokies have been the premiere team of the ACC since it's expansion in 2004. Just look at the Hokies results the past five years:

2004: Won the ACC, finishing 10-3, and played in the Sugar Bowl

2005: Went 11-2, won the Coastal Division, and lost in the ACC Championship Game 27-22 to FSU (who the Hokies were favored to beat by two touchdowns)

2006: "Down" year, winning only 10 games, finishing a close second in the Coastal Division, and playing in the Peach Bowl

2007: Won the ACC, finished 11-3, and played in Orange Bowl

2008: Won the ACC, finished 10-4, and won the Orange Bowl.

As impressive as that five year run has been, the truth remains that the Hokies will probably make it a three-peat in the ACC in 2009. The overall schedule is very tough -- non-conference games against Alabama, Nebraska, and East Carolina -- but the conference slate looks very promising. They don't draw Florida State, Clemson, or Wake Forest from the Atlantic Division, and if they can just split games against Georgia Tech and North Carolina, they will probably end up in the ACC Championship Game for the fifth time in six years. Regardless of what happens in Atlanta, the odds are that the Hokies are playing in yet another BCS game come the first week of January.

And likewise, on the other side of the Dome, I'm not really sure what to make of Alabama either. Our defense should be very good, but predicting the offense is a crapshoot. I cannot even say for certain what we are going to try to do, and even if you can do that there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding performance. We have a new quarterback and a newly revamped offensive line, and if those two units struggle we're going to have some serious problems on offense. Sure the defense will still keep us in games, but bad offenses commonly ruin the efforts of very good defenses, and that could happen this year with the Tide as well. I know we would all like to assume that we are finally back to national powerhouse status year after year (and hopefully that is the case), but that is no guarantee. As much as I hate to admit it, seeing the Tide have a pretty middling year in 2009, while a bit unlikely, could not legitimately be classified as a major surprise. It happened to Saban in year three in Baton Rouge -- which started with them getting dominated by Virginia Tech in the season opener, ironically enough -- and it could very well happen in year three in Tuscaloosa.

And Greg McElroy is a concern, no two ways about it. I particular am haunted with memories of Brandon Cox' debut in 2005 against Georgia Tech. If you recall, Cox had a great year in 2005, and aside from the Tech game he completed almost 62% of his passes, averaged over eight yards per attempt, had a four-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio, and posted a gaudy passer rating of 144.4. Of course, though, in that debut against Tech, he completely only half of his passes, threw four picks, and took three big sacks, all of which combined for the Tigers to lose a game they should have otherwise won. And again, Cox had a great year in 2005, but the debut was just terrible, and that's a major concern here with McElroy. Even if he is a good quarterback and goes on to have a good year, you never know exactly how the first time out will go, especially against this caliber of defense. McElroy could be a good quarterback and have a good year in 2009, and still really struggle Saturday night in Atlanta.

In real terms, combined, I think what it all means is that it is going to be very difficult to accurately predict the outcome of this game -- and no I do not think the late news regarding Jerrell Harris' uncertainty, Ryan Williams being named the Hokies starting tailback, and Beamer suspending fullback Kenny Jefferson really does anything to change that either. I think it's most likely a toss-up that could legitimately go either way. Not too surprisingly, if you look at some of the "expert" predictions on this game, they are split, and it should be pointed out that the boys in Vegas, while having 'Bama favored, have the spread under a touchdown. Again, from the outset, it has the looks of a toss-up game with it being difficult to get a good read on either team.

At the end of the day though, for all the depth of the previews that we have had here on RBR, ultimately I think this game comes down to the performance of the Alabama offensive line. The 'Bama defense will contain their offense well enough, and if our offensive line can effectively establish a running game, we can get enough out of the offense to get the job done and emerge with the victory. On the other hand, if we experience any of the struggles and lapses like we did last year against Tulane or Utah, the Hokies front seven is absolutely good enough to eat our lunch, and we'll be in their fight of our lives trying to get the win. Bottom line, if James Carpenter, Mike Johnson, William Vlachos, Barrett Jones, and Drew Davis can control the line of scrimmage, you can effectively go ahead and fire up Rammer Jammer. If not...

Hope for the best.

ATVSQBPI: Past is Prologue

Richard Pittman — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 09:30:14 -0000

Former Kentucky quarterback Andre Woodson put on his old jersey and celebrated his pretty good ATVSQBPI from 2007.

You wanted more information about the And The Valley Shook Quarterback Productivity Index, and I am here to give it to you. I have the data going back three years in the SEC. The first year can be found here, and we will reproduce it for this post.

Again, reminding you that the formula is as follows:

ATVSQBPI = (yards passing + yards rushing - yards lost by sack + 20*Number of Touchdowns - 30*Number of Interceptions)/(Number of pass attempts + rush attempts).

The explanation for why we use this particular formula is found here, but realize we are not using the complete formula because First Down stats are not quite as readily available, and it should pretty much wash out anyway. Plus, we've all gotten used to the scale this particular metric gives us.

Would you like to see 2006 and 2007? How about after the jump?

2008:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	8.73
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	8.49
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss	7.84
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.87
Casey Dick, Arkansas	5.68
Jarrett Lee, LSU	5.56
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.12
Jordan Jefferson, LSU	5.11
Nick Stephens, Tennessee	5.10
Kodi Burns, Auburn	5.02
Chris Nickson, Vandy	5.01
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina	4.95
Tyson Lee, Mississippi State	4.86
Mike Hartline, Kentucky	4.77
Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee	4.34
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	4.03
Chris Todd, Auburn	4.02
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	2.85

Alright, we've been through those numbers once before. Let's take a look at 2007:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	9.11
Ryan Perrilloux, LSU	8.20
Erik Ainge, Tennessee	7.12
Andre Woodson, Kentucky	6.89
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	6.78
Casey Dick, Arkansas	6.15
Matt Flynn, LSU	6.08
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina	5.81
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.69
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.62
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	5.16
Seth Adams, Ole Miss	5.03
Brandon Cox, Auburn	5.00
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	4.73

What are my take-away messages from this?:

Numbers were generally better in 2007 than they were in 2008.
Wesley Carroll was the worst starting QB in the SEC in both 2008 and 2007.
Tebow was a little better in his Heisman year than in his junior year. Or at least, he was a little more productive.
You really can win with average QB play, if you consider that LSU won the national championship with middle of the pack quarterback play in 2007, while Auburn was a pretty decent team with one of the least effective QBs in the conference. It sure makes it easier, though, if you're really good.
Just look at Ryan Perrilloux. That's what we didn't have in 2008. Well, that and a defense.
Andre Woodson was held back by his awful rushing numbers (not shown).

Let's move on to 2006, in which I lift the numbers straight from my old website:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Jamarcus Russell, LSU	9.16
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina	8.26
Erik Ainge, Tennessee	8.07
Andre Woodson, Kentucky	7.79
Chris Leak, Florida	7.02
Syvelle Newton, South Carolina	7.00
Casey Dick, Arkansas	6.99
Chris Nickson, Vandy	6.55
Brandon Cox, Auburn	6.37
John Parker Wilson, Bama	6.14
Omarr Conner, Mississippi State	6.13
Michael Henig, Mississippi State	5.82
Matthew Stafford, UGA	5.78
Mitch Mustain, Arkansas	5.68
Brent Schaeffer, Ole Miss	4.27

What are my take-home messages from 2006?:

Jamarcus Russell had the best ATVSQBPI of any quarterback between the years 2006 and 2008.
But on the other hand, numbers in general declined steadily in those years. Just look at John Parker Wilson. His ATVSQBPI actually fell each year he was a starter, but his ranking increased. Some of the worst QBs in the league in 2006 would have been pretty average in 2008 with the same production. Look at where Omarr Conner and Michael Henig would have ranked in 2008? Does this mean that Michael Henig was as good a quarterback in 2006 as John Parker Wilson was in 2008? Heck no. The steady decline of the mean from year to year, and the reduction in production of John Parker Wilson as he went from sophomore to senior, suggest the reduction is due mostly to better defenses.
Look at the steady progression of Matthew Stafford.
What the heck happened to Blake Mitchell?

If you have any additional thoughts, I welcome you sharing them.

Mizzou 2009, Part One: Blaine Gabbert and the Four-Year Precedent - Why establishing expectations is so difficult

RPT — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:00:10 -0000

More photos » by L.G. Patterson - AP

Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert scrambles for yardage during the spring Black and Gold college football scrimmage on Saturday, April 18, 2009, in Columbia, Mo. (AP Photo/L.G. Patterson)

Browse more photos »

By this point, Missouri fans know all the questions around the conference. Is Kansas the most talented team in the North and, if so, will the schedule still prevent them from winning the division? Is Nebraska officially "back" enough to take the division despite trips to Columbia and Lawrence? Is this the year Colorado finally justifies a slew of "sleeper picks" from assorted media?

Within the confines of the Missouri program, there are multiple questions, to be sure. How will the offense and defense perform under new coordinators? What kind of depth can Missouri develop on the defensive line? Does the pass defense have anywhere to go but up?

But there's simply no avoiding THE question, and that question comes in the form of the 6-5, 240-pound righty wearing No. 11 behind center: How exactly will Blaine Gabbert perform for the Missouri Tigers in 2009? That question spawns another question, however. What is a fair expectation for Gabbert in 2009?

And, thus, the impossibility of determining the parameters of statistical success begins.

Now, I don't aim to (nor could I) infringe upon the statistical sovereignty of The Boy Bill C., but for months, I'd been wanting to look at the first year numbers of quarterbacks in similar situations. What follows the jump is a year-by-year breakdown of the last four seasons, looking at underclassmen in their first years of starting for teams coming off of a season in which they were ranked OR at least received votes in the final AP poll, as well as what their performances may mean for Gabbert in 2009.

2008
(click to enlarge)

2008 fails to provide a compelling comparative paradigm for Gabbert. It's somewhat hard to believe, but Marc Verica ends up as the gunslinger of the group in terms of attempts, finishing with the highest completion percentage but also an unsightly 1:2 TD:INT ratio. The two crown jewels of this group, Terrelle Pryor and Jeremiah Masoli, can attribute a decent portion of their successes to unique skill sets, skill sets not likely to be seen from Gabbert unless Yost begins calling the zone read 35 times a game. It's here where we begin to see why style of play is the lurking variable in this equation. This exception also applies to Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan, whom I lumped into a collective vortex of mediocrity in the first year of the Rich Rod regime. The interesting cases here are Jarrett Lee and Mike Hartline. They had the collective misfortune of stepping under center following two extremely successful predecessors in Matt Flynn and Andre Woodson. Lee, in addition to throwing six pick-sixes amongst his 16 INTs, accounted for 22 percent less yardage than Flynn. Hartline's struggles to replace Woodson's 3700+ yards and 40 TDs resulted in more playing time for Randall Cobb.

2007
(click to enlarge)

Talk about a small sample size. Raise your hand if you were expecting comparisons between Gabbert and Chris Turner and Sean Canfield. As a sophomore, Turner (and his awesome blond afro) supplanted Jordan Steffy as the starter for the Terps for the last eight games of the season. Yes, Gabbert is expected to lean heavily upon Derrick Washington and DeVion Moore, but in 2007, Turner's job was to defer to seniors Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball to the tune of 32 carries a game. Canfield's numbers are slightly skewed by a late-season injury, as well as Oregon State's 55-45 run-pass numbers in 2007. Yost has indicated throughout the offseason that he'd love to get Missouri closer to a 50-50 split, but it's hard to imagine MU keeping the ball on the ground 55 percent of the time. And then there's Sam Bradford, the football equivalent of the guy who always ruined the curve in all your classes. Don't get me wrong, I'd love nothing more than to have Gabbert put up Bradford-esque numbers, but placing an expectation of a 4:1 TD:INT ratio and a Big 12 title is almost the QB equivalent of Coulter-level hype.

2006
(click to enlarge)

OK, remember what I said about Bradford ruining the curve? I take it back. Look at the yearly comparison. Graham Harrell alone might have been enough skew the numbers (after all, the attempts -- usually in the 280 range -- spiked to 373), but throw in great debuts for Chase Daniel and Colt McCoy and an under-appreciated season from Nate Longshore and the numbers jump. Instead of settling near the 3:2 TD:INT ratio for the four-year average, this rather prodigious group edged closer to 2:1. Here is where we start to get a better window for comparison. Gabbert is indelibly linked to Daniel, but is the average Missouri fan expecting him to approach the numbers reached by Daniel in 2006? It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but he also inherits a cupboard that (although not bare) isn't nearly as stacked as Daniel's was. With the Big 12 skewing the averages, the completion percentage, yards/attempt, and TD:INT ratio start to seem fair given Gabbert's situation in 2009.

2005
(click to enlarge)

If you bow at the throne of Rivals rankings, allow me to cite chapter 2005. In the previous three years covered, only one five-star underclassman (Matthew Stafford in 2006) had seen significant starting time for a team coming off of a season in which the program received Top 25 votes. The 2005 sample includes two five-stars in Kyle Wright and Rhett Bomar. For all the grief Wright got during his tenure at Miami, it all started relatively well in 2005. The 18 TDs would be a career high for Wright. Meanwhile, Bomar used his time off from Big Red Sports/Imports to put together a slightly less impressive debut. Granted, Oklahoma ran the ball on 59 percent of plays in 2005 thanks to the tandem of Adrian Peterson and Kejuan Jones, keeping his numbers (and his importance to that offense) relatively low.

What does it all mean?
(click to enlarge per game averages)

So, what does it all mean? Very little. The numbers show that the majority of underclassman starters even at recently successful programs A) are going to be relatively protected, B) will be hard pressed to have the astronomical TD:INT ratios we're used to, and C) can't really provide us with a perfect mold to place around Gabbert. According to the numbers, the average line of the first-year underclassman starter ends up being 15-for-25 for 182 yards with a touchdown and a pick. More Derrick Washington or less Derrick Washington, it's difficult to envision Gabbert only putting the ball up 25 times a game. In the 2006 analysis, I said those numbers start to look fair for Gabbert: 60 percent completion, 7.3 yards per attempt, and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio. Presuming Gabbert hovers around the 35 attempt average, that puts his nightly projections around 21-for-35 for 255 yards, and hopefully not worse than 2 TDs/1 INT.

Of course, in the end, gaudy stats don't necessarily mean success (see: Juice Williams' 451 yards and 4 TD against Missouri last season). But as much as I can dance around applying finite expectations to Gabbert (and trust me, NO ONE loves ignoring stats for gut feelings more than me), if it's time to start applying digits to Gabbert's debut season as starter, this seems like as good a launching point for discussion as any.

Poll

Ignoring wins as the obvious indicator of success, on a per game average, is the proposed stat line (21/35, 255 yards, 2-4 TD, 1-2 INT) a fair expectation of success for Blaine Gabbert?

No, that expects too much of him

28 votes

Yes, seems about right

150 votes

No, expectations should be higher

28 votes

206 votes | Poll has closed

Decision Time for Chizik and Malzahn

Jay Coulter — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 06:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Butch Dill - AP

Gene Chizik's biggest on field decision is now just days away. Who will start at quarterback against Louisiana Tech? (AP Photo/ Butch Dill)

Browse more photos »

Remember the days when Auburn fans used to complain about Brandon Cox? Little did anyone know those would be fondly remembered as the good ole days. Auburn's quarterback controversy begins its ~~second~~ third year on Wednesday when new Auburn Coach Gene Chizik opens fall camp on the Plains.

Rivaled in length only by Minnesota's senate race, Auburn Offensive Coordinator Gus Malzahn promises a decision on a starter will be made in the next week or so.

"With the situation we're in we have to find a guy as soon as possible," Malzahn said. "It's hard to say a certain time right now -- a week or two weeks -- but there will be an evaluation stage fairly quick, ideally, to name a guy as soon as we can once we know 100 percent that's our guy so you can start to develop that timing."

Raise your hand if you believe Malzahn will really settle on one quarterback.

No offense coach (and no pun intended), but Tiger fans have been hearing this talk since way back in the day when Al Borges was considered a brilliant offensive mind. Has it really been three seasons since Cox imploded against Miss State and the first of many quarterbacking controversies erupted? Time does fly when you are circling the drain.

The off-season has been focused on the usual suspects, Kodi Burns and Neil Caudle. And then there's Chris Todd, who the very mention of his name induces illness in Auburn fans similar to a case of summer camp Swine Flu. If there's ever been someone guilty by association more than Todd, then I haven't met him.

The money is on either Burns or Caudle, but don't discount freshman Tyrick Rollison. Malzahn seemed to open the door for him (perhaps ever so slightly) this week when asked whether or not he'd start a freshman. "I am familiar with starting a true freshman but at the same time, in this league, you got to have a guy that's not only extremely talented but has to have a little extra as far as leadership and character. It's pretty rare you find a freshman that's capable of doing that," Malzahn said.

And let's not forget, he's done it before.

You'll remember Malzahn's last visit to Jordan-Hare Stadium back in 2006 when he brought heralded freshman Mitch Mustain to campus. Despite the off field issues, Mustain succeeded in ways he hasn't since, leading the Razorbacks to an 8-0 record as a starter.

The big question remains: Will Malzahn make a decision in fall camp and stick with it through the season or will the announcement of a starter be written in pencil and subject to change each week? You have to believe he has an idea already of who he's going to select. After spring practice and eight months of film watching, it's doubtful another week is going to make a difference.

On paper Burns is the prototypical quarterback. This offense was made for his abilities. Watching him play last season and this spring tells you something else entirely. Many like to point to the breakout season Jason Campbell had his senior campaign with a new offensive coordinator.

That analogy is like comparing apples to Martians. Campbell was in an entirely different league from Burns heading into his final year. Whether its game pressure or lack of confidence, Burns is beginning to show signs of a bust not seen since Leon Hart left campus.

Talk about Caudle and you must talk about his backup in the same breath. The highly recruited Spain Park quarterback has been more fragile than peace in the Middle East. After missing most of his senior year of high school because of wrist and knee injuries, Caudle has continued to suffer from nagging ailments.

His stock shot through the roof with fans following his solid A-Day performance. It's probably a good idea for all of us to take a dose of reality and realize that Ted Roof's defense was in a base formation all day and not allowed to blitz. Caudle's performance was promising but must be tempered with reality.

Regardless of who gets the opening day nod, the road is likely to be rocky. Not having a lot of talent to throw to can pose problems even for Tim Tebow. We'll learn a lot about this coaching staff in the next couple of months. When the going gets tough will they stick with the plan or change like the wind?

The same question can be asked of Auburn fans. It will be real easy to jump off the train this year. We need to all remember this one has just left the station and there are plenty of mountains still to climb.

The coming weeks are what makes college football great. Are you ready?

What Happened to SEC Quarterbacks: Part I

Year2 — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:30:11 -0000

Senator Blutarsky asked, "Where did all the QBs go?" yesterday. Matt Hinton at Dr. Saturday gave a good look at quarterbacks among the BCS conferences, and he concluded that it's largely a perception problem in relation to the rest of the nation. It's also is largely a function of three disastrous situations from last year not being rectified.

To take a closer look, here's a comparison between the quarterback situations from 2004, just a few seasons ago, and now. Are things really that much worse? Let's see. The order is that of the 2004 passing efficiency rankings.

2004: Jason Campbell, senior

2009: A runner who can't pass, a passer with no arm, and the guy who couldn't beat either out last year

Campbell is one of the greatest quarterbacks in Auburn history, so comparing just about anyone to him is not fair. Still, the quarterback position for the Tigers of the Plains is an abject disaster, a side effect of a decaying regime. Brandon Cox was solid but not spectacular between '04 and now, but "solid but not spectacular" would be a big upgrade over 2008.

Verdict: Much, much worse now

2004: Chris Leak, sophomore

2009: Tim Tebow, senior

The quarterback position was then a picture of stability just as it is now. Leak's second campaign was his finest, both statistically and qualitatively. Things dipped for Leak in the Meyer/Mullen era as they ran an offense he was ill suited for, but Tebow has been a smashing success and, barring injury, will continue to be in 2009.

Verdict: A bit better

2004: David Greene, senior

2009: Joe Cox, senior

Greene won more games as a starter than any other quarterback in history, so it's hard to compare anyone in Bulldogs history to him. Cox has performed well enough when he's had the chance to play, but he doesn't look destined for stardom in this his final year. He sat behind a good one in Matthew Stafford, so it's hard to knock him for not winning the starting role yet. No he's not as good, but come on. This is David Greene we're talking about.

Verdict: A bit worse

2004: Matt Jones, senior

2009: Ryan Mallett, sophomore

Jones is a very different quarterback than Mallett is, what with his scrambling, improv ability, and speed. Mallett is a tall, pocket bound statue-type quarterback who is the prototypical specimen for a Bobby Petrino offense. Jones was quite good and quite fun to watch, but being a consensus five-star quarterback, Mallett's ceiling is higher. I'm going to call it even for now, but if Mallett lives up to his billing, it will easily swing into the "better" category.

Verdict: Even

2004: Erik Ainge, freshman / Rick Clausen, freshman

2009: A gaping hole of bitterness and sorrow

Tennessee's situation in 2004 wasn't ideal, with dueling freshmen attempting to fill the shoes of Casey Clausen. But you know what? They combined to finish fifth in the conference in passing efficiency and the Vols won 10 games and went to Altanta that year. Ainge ended up not being half bad, too. This season is a much different story. They have Jonathan Crompton, Turnover Machine and Nick Stephens, who couldn't definitively beat out Crompton a year ago. It gets worse in 2010, but that's beyond the scope of this piece.

Verdict: Much worse

2004: Marcus Randall, senior / JaMarcus Russell, freshman

2009: Jordan Jefferson, sophomore

LSU's quarterback platoon in 2004 guided the team to nine wins, with each appearing in every game (except against Troy, when Russell didn't). Randall was never able to fend off the young but talented Russell to hold the position down, but injury and inconsistency kept Russell from keeping Randall on the bench. Jefferson kind of fits the mold of Russell in the "young but talented" department, but this time there's no Randall to compete with. Jarrett Lee is still hanging around, but it's definitely Jefferson's job.

Verdict: Even

Part II tomorrow.

FIVE POINTS: Ugh -- The Team from the Upstate wins (again)

cocknfire — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 04:36:27 -0000

1. Everybody calm down. That includes me. One of the reason's I've waited until now (Monday evening) to post my thoughts is because any earlier attempts would have come out RARR!!!RARRRR!!!SMELLEY BAD!!!!RARR!!!! Take a step back. Think about this for a minute. Last year, we were all pissed about an 0-5 finish that put the Gamecocks at 6-6 and out of a bowl game after an unforgivable defensive collapse against The Team from the Upstate. This year, South Carolina finished 7-5, bound for a better bowl than the Gamecocks probably deserve (almost certainly the Outback, but maybe the Peach) and with some returning talent, even if we lose Jared Cook in addition to Kenny McKinley. (And I hate to say this, but keep an eye on Eric Norwood.) I'll have a lot more on a later date, but just to put things in perspective: This is the first time South Carolina has had four non-losing seasons since it entered the SEC. The last time was 1987-1990, when Joe Morrison and Sparky Woods went 8-4, 8-4, 6-4-1 and 6-5 as an independent. This has been a pretty good stretch by South Carolina standards.

2. Chris Smelley must never again start for South Carolina. It's that simple. This was "Bad Chris" at his worst, and comparing his performance to Blake Mitchell is an insult to Blake Mitchell. (And I say that as one of Blake's most consistent critics.) A fumbled quarterback sneak, overthrowing leaping receivers by two or three feet, almost getting intercepted when he tried to throw the ball away -- it was awful. Four interceptions and a 46.8 percent completion rate do not begin to tell of the horror that was watching Chris Smelley play quarterback. Brandon Cox would have been a marked improvement. Smelley's had some good games, but he also has a tendency to disappear or regress at the worst possible times: against Vanderbilt last year, against Kentucky this year and, then, this past weekend. Smelley's show against Ole Miss was just one of those illusions -- redshirt sophomores don't usually get better overnight. It's time to let it go and go with Stephen Garcia. (An aside: If "Tommy [Beecher] doesn't want to play," then his scholarship should be revoked. I'm not being mean about this. If you get an academic scholarship and you don't bother to show up to class, you fail and you lose your scholarship. Why should athletes be any different?)

3. Third down defense. All the nice things I've said about Ellis Johnson and the Gamecocks defense, and they follow up the 56-point waxing in the Swamp with a "performance" that included The Team from the Upstate converting eight of 14 third-down opportunities. In all, the Tigers gained 64 yards on third down, or about 4.6 yards per play. Worse yet, 56 of those third-down yards came in the second half -- when South Carolina most needed a stop to preserve clock and get the ball back. You can't blame the entire defensive effort for this game -- when your quarterback gets picked off four times, there's not much the defense can do to win it. But a few third-down stops might have changed momentum and the final score.

4. This is Spurrier. If there was a major criticism of Steve Spurrier's time in Gainesville, it's that he didn't do well against Florida State. Including bowl games, Spurrier went 5-8-1 against the Seminoles. Spurrier didn't make his name beating ACC rivals to make the fans happy; he made his name beating Georgia and Tennessee and winning SEC championships and a national title. True, those options weren't available to him, and the Team from the Upstate was the team South Carolina faced this weekend. But get used to the fact that beating the Tigers is not Spurrier's first goal, nor his second and probably not even his third. Personally, I want him focusing more on the SEC. That's not sour grapes; I hate losing to The Team from the Upstate. I'd still trade it any day for an SEC championship.

5. How would you like to have the Vanderbilt game back? Or the Georgia game? A special-teams blocker in a different place, a smarter play by Mike Davis ... But, no. We have to get past moral victories, get past a "this was an improvement," get past seeing the glass half-full when it's 60 percent empty. The Spurrier Era, in my mind, has been good for South Carolina, but not yet successful. This should have been an eight-win, maybe a nine-win, perhaps even a ten-win season. Again, don't misinterpret: This is a 7-5 team. You are whatever your record says you are. And until South Carolina starts winning more than seven games a year, it will always be a good team -- but a team that's just not good enough.

GRADE: F
Sorry, there's nothing to redeem this game, and all the time in the world can't change that. It was an all-around collapse.

Poll

Grade the Gamecocks vs. The Team from the Upstate

A

2 votes

B

1 votes

C

2 votes

D

5 votes

F

38 votes

48 votes | Poll has closed

Theorems and Stratagems, Week 4: Changing Directions

cocknfire — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 04:15:07 -0000

Well, it's early in the life of Theorems and Stratagems, but it looks like we might already have a favorite: Auburn offensive coordinator Tony Franklin, who appeared in this space last week for eschewing the concept of, you know, having a playbook.

Seeing as how he's not a fan of writing out a game plan for his offense, then, perhaps Franklin can be forgiven for just missing a few things. Like inserting longed-for backup QB Kodi Burns when you might want the quarterback to run the ball.

This is a pressing need when you're running the spread and you're starting signal-caller "made Brandon Cox look like Usain Bolt." Cox not being known for his scrambling abilities -- or much ability at all, after having been Al Borgesized.

When asked about using Burns in the second half [Franklin] said, "There was a time in the second half when I thought about it for some of the zone reads, but I just never did it." Huh? Did you just never get around to it or did you just forget?

I feel like there's something I should be doing right now...

The Auburn faithful are getting restless. Track Em Tigers also ran a poll of its readers, asking them to grade Franklin's performance. The number of respondents who choose "A" or "B"? Six percent.

Not that they're the only unhappy SEC fans. Tennessee fans are ready to blame someone -- anyone -- for their troubles. But, for most of them, Fulmer will do the trick just fine.

And they have examples, plenty of examples, of where bad coaching strategies hurt the Vols. For example, pick things up at the close of the first half, Tennessee driving.

The Vols got to the one yard line and had 3rd and goal with over :30 to play. Crompton did that sideline look again.

And the Vols let fifteen seconds run off the clock before they finally decided "Well, let's just call time out." ...

Two plays later, Crompton was picked off in the end zone, and I came the closest to booing I've ever come in my orange blooded life.

Clock management, though, wasn't the only problem for the Vols. Apparently, that whole "directional kicking" thing isn't Tennessee's strong suit. Among one of the most cited missteps by the Volunteer coaching staff: After surrendering two TDs off kicks to Brandon James over the past two years (one was nullified by a penalty), the Vols put the ball in his hands on special teams not once -- but twice. One resulted in plus field position for the Gators, another in a touchdown.

But never fear, Rocky Top. Walk-on punters to the rescue!

Back to clock management. Volunteers, Mountaineers -- they all like to take their time. So much time that Bill Stewart, who has taken West Virginia from contention to punchline in the space of a month, essentially chewed up the clock at the end of the game against Colorado.

This is a good strategy if you're ahead. Problem: It was a tie game.

That's okay, though. Stewart showed his brilliance at clock management when he called a timeout on a Colorado fourth down with three seconds left at the end of the first half. CU ran out the clock.

Meanwhile, The Mountain Top has a different complaint. Situation: Third-and-short, overtime, 'Eers have the ball.

Timeout is called and Coach Stewart is not in the huddle motivating these young men. He’s nowhere to be found. And Noel Devine is on the sideline with a "helmet problem". How does that even happen? Can he not borrow another helmet? Don’t they carry spare helmets?

Now, this isn't really fair. Obviously, Coach Stewart was trying to find another helmet for Noel Devine. It's not that he doesn't know what he's doing.

Or maybe he doesn't. (Photo HT: Doc Saturday)