SB Nation - Chas Henry

SEC Championship: The Other Prediction

Year2 — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 15:23:03 -0000

All this week I've tried to keep my reporter hat on and assess the two SEC Championship Game participants with a clear and level head. I know I didn't do a perfect job at it, but I did my best.

Today on the day of the game, I come to you simply as a fan. A fan of Florida, yes, but hopefully one that's simply living in the state of North Carolina and not the state of denial. If you don't want to read the account of my personal feelings on the game, which do not necessarily reflect the views of Team Speed Kills and make no pretense of being unbiased, don't click the jump.

There is a thought I've had in my head for about half of the season, and I see no reason to change it now. This year's SEC title game is not going to live up to last year's.

The 2008 game had it all: big performances from big stars, several lead changes, a relatively low penalty count, and a dramatic fourth quarter comeback. This season, both defenses are better while neither offense is as good. I expect this one to get dragged down into the figurative mud and be the sort of game where blocking and tackling gets overshadowed to a degree by punting and kicking.

It is for that reason why I'm glad Florida has Chas Henry and that he punts the ball high enough that almost no one even bothers to attempt a return. I'm also glad that Caleb Sturgis can make field goals from more than 50 yards out and correspondingly that the game is indoors. I know Alabama's special teams aren't anything to dismiss, but when pressed, I'll take the ones that are coached by the head coach.

Beyond that, I can't really say too much that I haven't already said at some point this week. These teams are evenly matched to a ridiculous degree, at least when you look at the season as a whole. However, I know Florida is capable of more than what it has been doing for a lot of the year.

Like Mulder, I want to believe that the Gators are peaking at the right time given their performances over the last month. While Georgia, Vanderbilt, FIU, and FSU didn't exactly present stiff defensive challenges, Florida at least began executing a lot better against them (and South Carolina). The Gators are +9 in turnovers (11 gained, two lost) since the Cocktail Party after having been -1 on the year up until then. Plus we'll never know to what degree Tim Tebow was hampered by his concussion through the October stretch; even if he was fine medically, taking a shot like that will make anyone tentative for a time. Whatever that did, he's over it now.

There are a lot of things that go into football games. I could probably show you 50 different relevant stats that describe various aspects of games. It's the ultimate team sport, and it has more moving parts than just about any other game. However when 48 of those 50 stats indicate that two teams are evenly matched, what do you do?

I'm going with Tebow. He came back to win championships, and I know better than to bet against him. He has the same kind of je ne sais quoi about him that Florida basketball's Oh Fours had, and they were the last major sports team to repeat. Brandon Spikes put off for a year using NFL contract money to get a good lawyer to try to get his brother out of jail (with said brother's blessing) in order to win championships. If the Gators fall this afternoon, he will have done that in vain.

You can pick whatever factor or edge you want in deciding who you think will win this game. Me, I'm sticking with Tebow and Spikes. I've rarely ever seen a better combination of offensive and defensive leader both on the field and off. I might go down with them this afternoon, but I'd much rather do that than doubt them. I've seen too much over the past couple of years to do anything that rash.

Florida 16 - Alabama 13.

Tebow Still Not Cleared for Practice

Year2 — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:10:18 -0000

More photos » by Phil Sandlin - AP

A photo of what would be illicit activity today.

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Tim Tebow has been free of concussion symptoms for "several days" but is not cleared to practice yet. Urban Meyer actually called a press conference to say that, but you knew that already if you've been following along with the story. He must be asymptomatic for at least a week before being cleared for practice, and he was still having headaches at least as late as last Tuesday.

The only real news is that Meyer cast doubt on the idea of Tebow playing without practicing, saying "Can Tim play quarterback for Florida against a very good defense without practicing? I'm not sure about that. We'll see." Last week, coaches ventured Tebow playing without practicing as a possibility.

Meanwhile, John Brantley continues to work as the starter. Chas Henry, UF punter and a former high school quarterback, is getting snaps as the backup. Freshman QB Jordan Reed has been sick, but may get some snaps. Some unnamed other guys (but probably Joe Haden) will get some direct snap practice.

Moses Jenkins, who also got a concussion against Kentucky, has not been healing as fast as Tebow has been.

Post-Spring Previews: Florida Gators

Gamecock Man — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 18:37:28 -0000

More photos » by Phil Sandlin - AP

4 months ago: Florida quarterback Tim tebow (15) and coach Urban Meyer, left, talk during the teams first practice in Gainesville, Fla., Thursday, Aug. 6, 2009, (AP Photo/Phil Sandlin)

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After taking on Arkansas in Fayetteville, the Gamecocks return to Columbia to round out the SEC slate against the Florida Gators. The Gators, of course, are near-consensus picks to repeat as SEC and national champions. Therefore, even if we're playing well at this point and even though the game is at home, we can expect to be a sizeable underdog. With good reason, too: the Gators return the vast majority of the significant contributors from last year's dominant group. They do lose a few key players, such as all-purpose threat Percy Harvin, but those losses should be negated by greater overall experience and depth and the infusion of young talent Urban Meyer has brought to Gainesville in his past few recruiting classes. The Gators may not be unbeatable, but they're the closest thing to it that we'll see all year, and better teams than us will probably lose to them by multiple touchdowns. That being the case, this is obviously going to be a tough upset to pull.

Let's take a look at the Gators.

Offense

The Gators run Urban Meyer's famous spread-option offense. Fellow Gamecocks blogger Photon Torpedo Tube put up a good breakdown of this scheme last year before our game, so I would suggest you take a look at it if you want to know more about Meyer's offense and how to defend it.

Quarterbacks

Florida returns Tim Tebow for one final season. Tebow, of course, needs no introduction. I have little doubt he'll go down in history as one of the very best college quarterbacks ever. Obviously, the Gators have a huge advantage in this department, as they do against every team not located in Austin, TX or Norman, OK.

Verdict: Strong advantage Florida

Running Backs

Florida led the SEC in rushing last year despite not using a traditional running game and not playing a true running back on most plays. Typically, this involved running the option with Tebow under center and a group of hybrid receiver / tailback guys like Harvin, Jeffrey Demps, and Chris Rainey running out of the backfield and breaking off long runs with their speed. Expect the Gators to continue to run the ball well, but also expect them to run out of more traditional sets this year, as Meyer has claimed that he plans to run out of the I at times this year in order to get Tebow ready for the NFL, to utilize the skills of more traditional tailback Emmanuel Moody, and to generally mix things up. The Gators will likely shift between these sets and their spread formations, which best utilize the skills Tebow, Demps, Rainey, and highly recruited speedster Andre Debose bring to the table.

I'm tempted to only give the Gators a small advantage here, as I am beginning to firmly believe that we will rise into the upper half of the SEC in rushing yards this year. However, I just can't do that at this point; what we know for sure is that Florida was unstoppable on the ground last year and that we were one of the conference's worst.

Verdict: Strong advantage Florida

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

The Gators lose some key contributors here due to the departures of Harvin and Louis Murphy. They will rely on star junior tight end Aaron Hernandez to carry the load. Luckily for the rest of the SEC, Hernandez will likely be gone after this year, as he's a prime NFL prospect. The Gators will rely on guys like David Nelson and Riley Cooper to help Hernandez fill the void left by Harvin and Murphy.

I only see a slight advantage for Florida here, mainly due to the fact that these Gators are untested. However, there's plenty of talent around and we can probably expect someone we haven't heard a lot about yet to make a big contribution. Plus, the Gators have a good enough quarterback and all-around offense to negate the lack of experience here. The passing game will be fine for Florida.

Verdict: Slight advantage Florida

Offensive Line

Offensive line is what's getting a lot of attention as a potential concern for the Gators, who lose both tackles and are still trying to settle on a rotation. Finding competent replacements at those positions will be key for the Gators if they want to win another national title. Florida does return a talented guard duo in brothers Maurkice and Mike Pouncey. The Gators may play Carl Johnson at left tackle. The other positions are up for grabs between a group of unprovens.

I give Florida a slight advantage here. The Gators certainly have cause for concern at offensive line and will be tested right away when they take on Tennessee's formidable defense in week three. (I actually think this game will be much closer than most people if--and this is a big if-Tennessee plays safe on offense and doesn't allow Florida's formidable defense to blow the game open with turnovers.) However, as usual, the talent is there. Like last year, this line will probably be playing well by the time Florida plays us, as they will have had time to figure out a good lineup and establish chemistry.

Let's take a look at defenses after the jump.

Defense

As most Carolina fans know, former USC defensive coordinator Charlie Strong heads up Florida's defense. Strong has done a great job leading the Gators, as he did while at Carolina. Strong tends to run out of the 4-3 and nickel back sets. He's known for being agressive.

Defensive Line

The Gators return all their starters at defensive line. That includes end Carlos Dunlap, one of the country's best. The tackle positions go to Lawrence Marsh and Terron Sanders, while Jermaine Cunningham plays opposite Dunlap. As if this group of starters wasn't good enough, the Gators are very deep here, too, and should be able to rotate frequently and weather any major injuries.

I give the Gators a slight advantage here. I like our starting defensive line a lot, but Florida's depth gives them an adantage, especially with this game coming late in the year.

Verdict: Slight advantage Florida

Linebackers

Like Eric Norwood, Florida's Brandon Spikes is a defensive leader that decided to come back for one more year. Spikes will be flanked by Ryan Stamper and Brandon Hill. Dustin Doe and A.J. Jones will also see time outside.

The Gators get another slight advantage here. I'm inclined to believe that Eric Norwood is as good as any linebacker in the league, including Spikes. I also think Rodney Paulk is fully capable of holding his own. However, depth is again an issue for us here, especially in comparison to Florida.

Verdict: Slight advantage Florida

Secondary

The Gators return a talented, deep secondary that will be one of the nation's best. Major Wright and Ahmad Black will start at safety, while Janoris Jenkins and Joe Haden will line up at corner. The Gators have plenty of guys on the depth chart that can fill in if injuries occur or in packages that have more defensive backs. Just think; Matthew Stafford ripped this group a new one only two years ago. That seems long ago now.

I've gone on record many times this off-season saying that I think we'll have problems at secondary. Reports out of August practice are that we might be better than expected, but I still don't think we'll be as good as this group.

Verdict: Strong advantage Florida

Special Teams

Senior Brandon James is likely the nation's best return man; he's certainly the best for punt returns. Florida's talented depth chart gives them plenty of guys on coverage units that would start for most teams. Punter Chas Henry is a good one. Kicker Jonathan Phillips was accurate last year but was very rarely asked to kick longer field goals, so his range is a question mark if the issue ever comes up. Overall, a really good group.

I'll give Florida a slight advantage here, mainly due to James and their greater experience at kicker.

Verdict: Slight advantage Florida

Head Coaches

You know, the days when people were favorably comparing Steve Spurrier to Urban Meyer seem like they were just yesterday but at the same time seem so far away now. You remember: we beat Florida in 2005, completely outplayed them in 2006 but lost due to Jarvis Moss's special teams heroics, and were riding high early in 2007 while Florida struggled out of the gate. Then the bottom fell through on Spurrier's program: five straight losses to end 2007, including a blowout loss to Florida in Columbia, and a mediocre 2008, including a huge blowout to the Gators in Gainesville in a game where Florida really made us look like an FCS team. Now, most say that Spurrier is washed up and that Urban is the best coach in the land. I would disagree that Spurrier is washed up--and I think others may too after couple of years of improved offense with Stephen Garcia under center--but I won't disagree that Urban is a fantastic coach. Whatever you want to believe about his professional ethics, the guy is an offensive genius and an amazing recruiter. Personally, I think he's supplanted Pete Carrol as the country's best coach. I'll go ahead and give Urban the big advantage here; he's at the top of his game, while Spurrier comes into this year with a lot to prove.

Verdict: Strong advantage Florida

Overall

As these predictions suggest, I don't at all like our chances in this game. Florida is simply going to be very, very good this year, and even if we end up being pretty good ourselves, I just think the Gators have more going for them across the board than we do. I do think this game will be closer this year than it was last year, but that's probably partially because last year's game should have been closer than it was; we weren't as bad last year as we played in the final three games. I think that we'll make this one interesting at times, but Florida will pull away for a comfortable victory in the end.

Prediction: 17-point Florida victory

Poll

The Florida game will result in a (elaborate in the comments)...

Blowout Carolina victory...

3 votes

Close Carolina victory...

3 votes

Close Florida victory...

13 votes

Blowout Florida victory...

64 votes

83 votes | Poll has closed

SEC 2009 // Meet the New Gators, Same as the Old Gators

Year2 — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 14:30:09 -0000

More photos » by Phil Sandlin - AP

Florida safety Dee Finlley pulls in a pass in the rain as the Gator freshman football team opened their season practice. (AP Photo/Phil Sandlin)

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Had I written a roster post for Florida last year, it would have made this one heck of a lot easier. I could just copy and paste it, delete the sections on Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy, and then be done, right?

Well, yes and no.

Of course Florida has a lot of guys back from last year. That's where the whole "consensus preseason No. 1" stuff comes from. Seven offensive starters return, and the top 22 from the defense come back. Some will say top 21 and point to the transfer of DT Torrey Davis as the missing one, but I'd ask you when you were taking the depth chart snapshot. He registered all of five tackles before the bowl and spent much of the year in the coaches' doghouse.

The quarterbacks are set. We know that. Tim Tebow is starting with John Brantley backing him up. About the only thing worth mentioning here is that Urban Meyer says Brantley has a package of plays and will get spot work in meaningful situations. I doubt he'll do as much as Tebow did in 2006, but he's going to get non-garbage time minutes.

Speaking of 2006, that leads to the receivers.

They are the biggest question mark on the offense, what with Harvin and Murphy gone. The unit is probably going to approximate the one that Meyer had in his first championship year down to the man. David Nelson will be Dallas Baker, the tall guy. Deonte Thompson will be Andre Caldwell, the speedy guy. Carl Moore will be Jemalle Cornelius, the possession guy. Freshman Andre Debose will be Percy Harvin, the slash guy. Aaron Hernandez will be Cornelius Ingram, the receiving tight end. Riley Cooper will be, well, Riley Cooper.

The biggest difference is that Hernandez is a known quantity from the beginning, a playmaker waiting to break out. Ingram was still adjusting to being a tight end, having come in as a quarterback, but Hernandez will be ready from Day 1.

The running backs are in much better shape this time around compared to '06 though. Jeff Demps, when he's not moonlighting in the Percy Position, will probably be the primary back. He's fast and hits holes with authority despite his size. Chris Rainey is exciting with his ability to make people miss, but he dances around too much to be the top guy. Emmanuel Moody will be the biggest beneficiary from the new I-formation sets, but he's not guaranteed to get many carries. It'd be a big boost if he could be the big back playmaker that Florida has lacked since the time of Ciatrick Fason, but he hasn't put it all together yet.

Moody and Rainey also tend to get hurt, which further solidifies Demps in the top spot. Return man extraordinaire Brandon James and freshman Mike Gillislee are in the mix as well, but I don't know how many balls there will be to go around.

The offensive line will be the key to everything. The Gator offense didn't take off last year until it gelled around the fourth quarter of last year's game with Arkansas. Three fifths of it are rock solid with Maurkice Pouncey, Mike Pouncey, and Carl Johnson back from starting in 2008.

After that, some combination of redshirt sophomore James Wilson, sophomore Matt Patchan (who played defense last year, like Mike Pouncey did in '07 before moving back to offense in '08), and redshirt junior Marcus Gilbert will fill the other roles. Redshirt freshman Sam Robey made some noise in the spring, and true freshman Xavier Nixon has impressed in fall practice. All of those guys except Robey were four or five star recruits according to Rivals, so it's likely that no matter which five take the field, it will be a good group. It better be, if UF is to repeat as champs.

The defensive line is in flux a bit, as it has been every year since most of the excellent 2006 line graduated. All the starters are back, but only Jermaine Cunningham looks set in his job. Tackles Terron Sanders and Lawrence Marsh are getting pushed hard by Jaye Howard, and this may be the year that Carlos Dunlap gets the starting role over Justin Trattou. Dunlap led the SEC with 9.5 sacks last year, but uneven effort kept him behind Trattou on the depth chart.

The linebackers are two thirds set. Brandon Spikes and Ryan Stamper are every bit the senior leaders and performers that any team would want. The final spot is currently a revolving door of A.J. Jones, Brandon Hicks, and, when he gets back from suspension, Dustin Doe. All three of those guys have started games, so whoever ends up there for good (if anyone) will be quality. Young bucks Jon Bostic and Brendan Beal are pushing for playing time as well.

The secondary is perhaps the strength of the entire team, something that would seem impossible during 2007's burnfest. The corners are right now Joe Haden and freshman All American Janoris Jenkins, a formidable duo. Wondy Pierre-Louis, Markihe Anderson, and Moses Jenkins are good enough as backups. The one to watch though is redshirt freshman Jeremy Brown, who missed last season to injury. Meyer has lamented that at the time of his injury, Brown was actually ahead of Janoris Jenkins on the depth chart.

The safeties are loaded. The two starters are back, the big hitting Major Wright and the ball hawking Ahmad Black. Wright struggles in coverage though, and Black can't lay the wood. As a result, sophomore all-everything recruit Will Hill has been impossible to keep off the field since the spring. Also in the mix are senior Dorian Munroe, who missed last season due to injury but has played well in the past, and newcomer Dee Finley.

The special teams will look exactly the same. Dangerous return man Brandon James is back (his last year I promise, Tennessee fans), and so are P Chas Henry and K Jonathan Phillips. Phillips missed just one field goal and one extra point (the fateful blocked one against Ole Miss) in all of 2008, but his longest made FG was only from 40 yards. The big-legged Caleb Sturgis might get a chance to kick the longer ones. The tradition of key players contributing on special teams will continue as in past years, most notably with the addition of Demps as the gunner on punt coverage.

The depth across the board is much to Florida's advantage, and the coaches are delighting in the ability to replace underperformers in practice with another quality guy. If you want to nit pick about the receivers, two O-linemen, and the third linebacker go ahead, but just about any coach in the nation would trade his roster for this one.

MONDAY: Florida's Song Remains the Same, Florida's Heisman winners

TUESDAY: The Underdogs Florida Will Face, Don't Miss Tebow's Last Year

LATER TODAY: Coaching Changes

THURSDAY: Predictions

FRIDAY: Conclusions

TARGET FILE: at Florida [11.15.08]

cocknfire — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 04:03:03 -0000

Well, given the way Florida is talked about this year, and the lack of time I have, I could do this to preview Florida.

Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Urban Meyer Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Percy Harvin Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow.

But, no, I refuse to take the easy way out. So here we go.

OFFENSE (TIM TEBOW)

Offensive line. Perhaps the one position Tim Tebow could not play. Three starters return to a unit that allowed just one sack a game in 2007 and, of course, made all those holes for Tim Tebow to run through. There might be weaknesses in this offense; this ain't one of them. ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA

Quarterback.

ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA

Running backs. This one is trickier. We haven't seen Emmanuel Moody since 2006, when he had 79 carries for 459 yards and two scores for the other USC. Kestahn Moore returns -- for whatever that's worth -- after rushing for 580 yards and 6 TDs. It's hard to tell how good either South Carolina or Florida is. Tim Tebow will also run a bit. ADVANTAGE: PUSH

Wide receivers. Percy Harvin. You could leave it at that; he's Reggie Bush Lite. Harvin had 83 rushes for 764 yards and 6 TDs and 59 receptions for 858 yards and four more scores last year. Assuming he's healthy for the South Carolina game -- and at this point you almost have to -- he does more than cancel out Kenny McKinley. McKinley doesn't bring that second dimension to the game. That said, not having tight end Cornelius Ingram will hurt. Oh, and the receivers will be catching passes thrown by Tim Tebow. ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA

DEFENSE

Defensive line. The most impressive player here is Jermaine Cunningham, who had 12 TFL, including 6.5 sacks. There are two returning starters and three sophomores here. Don't expect Florida to rank 10th in rush defense again, but don't expect the bottom to drop out, either. After all, they don't have to face Tim Tebow. ADVANTAGE: PUSH

Linebackers. Brandon Spikes was a monster, with 131 tackles, 16 for loss, and seven pass break-ups last year -- the Tim Tebow of the defense, if you will. He's got injury issues right now, too, but should be healed up for South Carolina. Dustin Doe is also pretty good. ADVANTAGE: PUSH

Secondary. Um, this unit wasn't very good. And Dennis Kucinich is sligthly left of center. Pass efficiency defense? 71st in the FBS, 128.72. Oh, and they're hurt. This is where you can hurt the Gators -- and the only chance most teams will have at keeping up with Tebow and Co. ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA

SPECIAL TEAMS

Tim Tebow does not make or return kicks. So why do we care? But if you do, Joey Ijjas is gone after a year in which he was a solid, if not great, kicking option. Punter Chas Henry averaged 39.3 yards a kick. Brandon James was great on punt returns (18.1 per) and good on kickoff returns (28.0 per). ADVANTAGE: PUSH

COACHING

We have a small sample set to work with here, but we can guess that Urban Meyer is pretty good. Yes, undefeated season at Utah, national title at Florida, etc. But: What has he done with his recruits? Is the potential there to change that this year? Absolutely. But let's see it first. ADVANTAGE: PUSH

RESULT

Don't let those "pushes" on defense fool you: This is the superior team. The Gamecocks' offense won't be able to keep up, even though the defense should keep the game from getting too far out of hand. LIKELY LOSS

THE REST OF THEIR SEASON

I am not one of those who believes that Florida will win the national title. They cannot navigate a schedule that includes at Tennessee, vs. LSU, Georgia and South Carolina without one loss, and probably not without two. The defense will get scorched badly in a couple of games, and it will cost the Gators. But it should still be a great season. 10-2

Poll

South Carolina at Florida will be a ...

South Carolina blowout

1 votes

Narrow South Carolina win

2 votes

Push

2 votes

Narrow Florida win

9 votes

Florida blowout

8 votes

22 votes | Poll has closed