SB Nation - Major Wright

Alabama & Florida Common Opponents: Conclusion

Year2 — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 19:46:09 -0000

As a part of SEC Championship Game week, we've been taking a look at Alabama's and Florida's common opponents in alphabetical order. Here are the posts for each: Arkansas, FIU, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

It's been three days and now eight posts, and where do we stand? The tally of better performances came out in Florida's favor 4-3, but the tiebreaker in the Gators' favor is FIU. I said it then and I'll say it again now: FIU is not a real measuring stick for these teams. In that sense, the two of them tied the better performance competition 3-3.

Here's a look at the combined stats of the teams against all common opponents. The FIU results are left out, leaving the six SEC opponents the Tide and Gators shared.

	Alabama	Florida	Difference
Points For	160	153	BAMA +7
Points Allowed	61	76	BAMA -15
Passing Yards	1119	963	BAMA +156
Rushing Yards	1166	1288	UF +122
Total Yards	2285	2251	BAMA +34
Passing All.	1095	837	UF -258
Rushing All.	545	555	BAMA -10
Total Defense	1640	1392	UF -248
Turnover Margin	+5	-1	BAMA +6

Across the six games, Alabama outscored Florida by a touchdown while allowing about two touchdowns fewer. Alabama accrued many more passing yards, but Florida gained a lot more rushing yards than Alabama did. Florida's passing defense was much, much tighter, while rushing defense was roughly even. Alabama was also much better in taking care of the ball.

When you look at these numbers in a per game light though, the differences are much less pronounced. Alabama scored 1.17 more points and allowed 2.5 fewer points per game. Alabama got 26 more passing yards a game, but Florida rushed for 20.33 more yards per game. The largest difference, Florida's edge in passing defense, comes out to a noticeable 43 yards per game average, while Bama's rush defense edge comes out to only 1.67 yards per game. The decided turnover advantage Alabama has is just +1 per game.

So after all that, is the conclusion that these teams are basically even? For the most part, yes. Is there nothing to pull out of this 72 hour study? No.

The total offense numbers are essentially a wash, as are the point totals since they're about a field goal per game apart. Let's set those aside.

The interesting thing is the defense and turnovers. Florida has a big advantage in pass defense, largely thanks to having a secondary with at least four future NFL players in it (Joe Haden, Janoris Jenkins, Major Wright, and Will Hill). Some of that can be attributed to the pass rush too, but that's taken a hit with Carlos Dunlap's suspension. I don't think the loss of Dunlap will take Florida's advantage away entirely because as I said, UF is stacked in the backfield.

The other big one is the turnovers. Over all games, Bama is +15 (25 gained, 10 lost) in the turnover department, while Florida is just +8 (23 gained, 15 lost). Based on the common opponents and the overall season as a whole, it's reasonable to expect the Crimson Tide to have the turnover advantage in this game.

When you've got two teams that are as closely matched as these two, turnovers are critical. If they can bridge the gap between a great team and a merely good one (see: Florida-Ole Miss 2008, Florida-Arkansas 2009, etc), they can be a decisive factor between teams on an even level.

If Florida's pass defense can be as smothering as usual, it will force Alabama to have to run to win. Running to win probably suits Nick Saban fine, but Florida's run defense is on par with Alabama's (which is to say, it's really good). If UF can make Bama a one dimensional team, then it bodes very well. On the other hand, that advantage in pass coverage can be nullified with the Tide's superior play in regards to turnovers.

It should be a classic on Saturday, and this year's common opponents have given us two storylines to watch: Florida's pass defense, and Alabma's turnover prowess.

Gators facing possible mass exodus to NFL

Mocking Dan — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:00:14 -0000

by Bill Haber - AP

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Jeremy Fowler of the Orlando Sentinel writes for quite possibly the best-named blog on the Internet -- Swamp Things. It's all things Florida athletics.

Earlier this week he had this post about seven Gators possibly entering the NFL. Head coach Urban Meyer said he has "seven juniors who are NFL quality players." While he wouldn't say which seven, six are pretty obvious.

The best is clearly cornerback Joe Haden. He should be a lock to go pro and a possible top 15 pick. He could start in the NFL right now.

Defensive end Carlos Dunlap sure has a lot of natural ability, but he's had a down season. He'll probably go pro but shouldn't. He has a basketball player's frame, which doesn't always equate to the NFL -- just ask Gaines Adams.

Tight end Aaron Hernandez may be undersized at 6-foot-2, but he's an elite catcher of the football. He should go pro, but realize his role in the NFL may be similar to that of Chris Cooley and not necessarily Antonio Gates.

Maurkice and Mike Pouncey might be the best players at their position in college. Both should go pro. They're going to very good in the NFL for a long time.

Safety Major Wright never really does anything to stick out. He should return and continue to enhance all parts of his game.

Those are the big six. The seventh could be defensive tackle Lawrence Marsh, running back Emmanuel Moody or defensive lineman Justin Trattou. Considering there's not a clear-cut player among those three, each should return for their senior season.

SEC Power Poll, Week Nine

mlmintampa — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 11:00:24 -0000

Our SEC Power Poll ballot. Final results at Team Speed Kills on Wednesday.

1. Florida: Beating your rival efficiently can erase a lot of doubts people have about you. But Florida should realize they beat Georgia in a down year. It was like beating a JV team.

2. Alabama: Defense wins championships, but Bama needed the bye week to fix their passing game. Otherwise, they are running into the same offensive problems that sunk them last season.

3. LSU: Between LSU and Bama's defenses, we might see another 3-2 game Saturday.

4. Auburn: Last week, I had them as 11. Now I have them as 4. That's what happens when you have three dominant teams and nine bums.

5. Tennessee: The best of the .500 teams, Tennessee can win out and finish 5-3 SEC and 8-4 overall. Not bad for Kiffin's first season in a real rebuilding job.

6. Ole Miss: The Rebels handed a win to Auburn with three turnovers. Poor Dexter McCluster got no help and his 186 yards were wasted.

7. South Carolina: I don't think Steve Spurrier can take much more of this. Just let him go home to some golf course so he can piss in the woods in peace.

8. Georgia: Lost in Gouge-gate, a clean play by a Gator actually injured a Bulldog; Major Wright's 4th quarter hit gave A.J. Green a bruised lung.

9. Mississippi State: The dream of 4-4 in the SEC is alive! Come on, Anthony Dixon!

10. Arkansas: Look on the bright side Arky; you're 7th nationally in scoring offense.

11. Kentucky: In their last chance to get people to pay attention to them before basketball starts, they allow 348 yards rushing to Miss State. Well played, sirs.

12. Vanderbilt: This season has been strange, but even Vandy beating UF on Saturday is outside the range of possibilities.

We Almost Died Tonight (Updated With An Urban Quote)

mlmintampa — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 01:39:50 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

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It doesn't matter that Florida defeated Kentucky 41-7 because our quarterback was motionless on the ground for about three minutes. The hit on Tim Tebow was clean (the UK player did not lead with the crown of the helmet), and it was the impact of the back of Tebow's head on Marcus Gilbert's knee (who was doing nothing wrong), that caused all of us to wonder if God would kill Tebow in game four of his senior season. While Tebow was helped to his feet, and was aware enough to throw up in a garbage bag, you cannot function like a human for a few days after type of blow.

The football side wonders if Tebow will be back for LSU. The realistic side hopes that someone is smart enough to put Tebow through tests and machines to make sure he isn't seriously injured. Remember, last week Tebow used his head to smash Eric Berry. Those hits build up and one punch can be lights out. It makes me sick to think about this, but this is the business we have chosen and we have to worry about this stuff.

Whatever illness is floating around the Gators seemed to impact different guys in different ways. Florida's defense (with The Major, Haden and Spikes impacted by illness or injury) actually looked better than against Tennessee, while Riley Cooper was a step slower. Add that to Urban Meyer looking like he was freezing on a night it was in the high 60s in Lexington. Meyer looked sick before Tebow was knocked out. Offensively, UF was able to keep the ball on the ground (363 yards), but relied far too much on Tebow (16 attempts for 123 yards and 2 TDs). Even if Tebow wasn't hurt, UF has to trust other guys to get hard yards. I know Tebow had most of his yards on option reads, but you'd think at this point UF would know that you have to pull the reins on him sometimes. If Tebow is able to return this season, they will definitely have to do that. UF still has no passing game, which is kind of a big deal.

Praise Jesus, because there is a bye week before LSU. But it is entirely possible Tebow is unavailable for that game and a few more after that. He is still alive and he is still our quarterback, but the second part is now in doubt.

[UPDATE 10:12] Postgame presser with UAA spokesman Steve Babik and Urban Meyer reveals nothing about Tebow's health. Goddamnit UAA, enough of the Baghdad Bob routines and get us some information.

[UPDATE 10:19] Mike Pouncey said Tebow's eyes rolled back in his head. This actually makes me feel better, because at least I can look at this like a boxer getting hit with a perfect punch.

[UPDATE 10:35] If you assume Tebow lost consciousness and that his vomiting was due to the hit, you can assume Tebow has a Grade III concussion. That means he could be out for at least the LSU game, if not longer. Here are some guidelines for a return from a Grade III concussion;

Orthopedics.About.com : The athlete is removed from competition and transported to the emergency department. Length of time out of competition can be discussed with the physician. All patients who sustain a concussion must not return to play until cleared by someone trained in management of these injuries (e.g. the team physician). Foremost, any athlete should not return to play until all symptoms have resolved. Even a mild headache should exclude a player from returning to competition.

Neurosurgery Today : Grade III concussions involve posttraumatic amnesia for more than 24 hours or unconsciousness for more than five minutes. Players who sustain this grade of brain injury should be sidelined for at least one month, after which they can return to play if they are asymptomatic for one week.

It may be a long time before we see Tim Tebow back on the field. You better get used to the idea of Johnny Brantley facing LSU, Arkansas, Mississippi State and Georgia.

[UPDATE 11:15] From Urban, via Mark Schlabach's gamer;

"We're going to find out more about Tim. We believe it is a concussion. He got hit pretty good, but that's one tough cat. Our team will pray for him and he'll be fine," coach Urban Meyer said during his postgame press conference. Tebow will be held at the hospital overnight for observation.

We won't add anything else unless we get actual specifics on Tebow's status. In the meantime, if you're insane and pray to Saints for various things (like me), here is St. Sebastian's prayer for athletes, prayer of St. Augustine (namesake of UF's Catholic Student Church), and prayer to St. Anthony (which is a good catch-all prayer). Try to sleep tonight, even if your stomach is in knots.

Tim Tebow Among Those on Sick Plane to Kentucky

Year2 — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 13:54:50 -0000

Florida has had 35 players fall ill to what Urban Meyer described on Thursday as either a respiratory illness or a stomach illness over the past few weeks.

Well, what was message board rumor yesterday turned into media report today as the Independent Florida Alligator is reporting that Tim Tebow flew to Kentucky on a separate plane for sick players. Major Wright also was apparently on that flight, but it was made public on Thursday that both he and Joe Haden were ill. No one is reporting just yet whether Tebow has symptoms of the respiratory or the stomach bug.

Dustin Doe, linebacker and blogger, meanwhile seemed to be in too good of spirits to have been on the sick plane:

Just touch down in kentucky....off the plane on the bus DESTINATION HOTEL...LOCATION...CAN'T TELL YA...HAHA TOP SECRET....STAY TUNED

UPDATE

ESPN's bottom line is reporting that Tebow has the respiratory illness.

UPDATE 2

The Gainesville Sun is reporting that along with Tebow and Wright, Haden and Tebow's roommate Riley Cooper were on the separate plane. Urban Meyer expects all to play. Receivers coach Billy Gonzalez, who was sent home with illness on Sunday and coached the rest of the week with a mask and gloves, also traveled with the team to Lexington.

Classic Moments In Championship Mode: Lawrence Wright, 1995 UT-UF

mlmintampa — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 14:00:18 -0000

Before there was Reggie Nelson and Major Wright, there was Lawrence Wright.

Doc Saturday Diagnoses The Tigers

Poseur — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 15:13:31 -0000

Doc Saturday reviewed LSU's chances on Wednesday and I've finally gotten around to posting it here. By blogging standards, I realize my reaction time here is positively glacial, but what can you do? We're from the South. It's hot down here and we move a bit slower. Also, as pompous jerks from other schools delight in telling us, LSU students aren't very bright and our school sucks, so I was probably too stupid to find the link until now. Instead of firing back with our academic rankings or anything, just sic Mike the Tiger on ‘em (or worse, Jrlz). Besides, academic snobbery is all the Big Ten has left. It would be too cruel to shake them from those illusions.

As one would expect from the good doctor, his analysis is fair and pointed. Really, my only real quibbles are things simply from not obsessing over the Tigers on the same level we do here. He says that Jefferson struggled in losses. Well, yes and no. He did have terrible second halves. He also looked pretty damn good in the early parts of those games, as we've discussed. But, really, he's just not looking at LSU in the same detail we are. He just can't, there's too many teams out there.

The most interesting part of the article is about the defense (complete with charts!).

The impressive numbers preceded Pelini's arrival with Miles in 2005 -- the Tigers finished in the top 15 nationally in total defense three years in a row from 2002-04, including No. 1 in both categories in the '03 championship season. A top-10 defense is normal here; last year's group barely finished in the top 10 in the SEC. Mallory and Peveto are now coaching elsewhere.

Not that you can blame them entirely: Just shy of half the regulars were freshmen and sophomores. That's good for John Chavis, who comes from somehow orchestrating the conference's best defense last year while going down with the Tennessee Titanic. LSU's secondary, clearly the weak link last year, could look a lot like Florida's young cover guys in their dramatic improvement from inept noobs in 2007 to one of the best secondaries in the country during last year's title run -- like Joe Haden and Major Wright, et al in Gainesville, Patrick Peterson and Jai Eugene are former blue chips who have taken their lumps at the outset and should be over the hump en route to fulfilling the hype with a year under their belts; as a junior, safety Chad Jones should be rounding into All-SEC form by now. But the big change is Chavis' steadying influence, and he should have enough at his disposal to take a full touchdown off last year's scoring average.

I have to be honest, I have privately compared the LSU defense to Florida's, but I was scared to bring it up on this blog for fear of it being too homer-ific. Thanks for the opening, Doc! Florida's pass defense last season was terrific, and one of the reasons the Gators won last year and are big favorites this year. And their pass defense in 2007 was horrendous. Not just bad, but "Oh my God" terrible. And what I believe - what I am ardently hoping for - is that LSU's pass defense is going through the same transition from caterpillar to beautiful butterfly. LSU's secondary was simply awful this season, and now it could very well be a team strength. The question is, are we just seeing what we want to see?

Are we just, as Doc Saturday says, buying the brand? Go over and read someone a lot smarter than we are.

The Road To Pasadena: Wright-Hill-Black

mlmintampa — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 11:08:32 -0000

Our look at the men who need to lead the Gators to the BCS National Championship Game begins with the three-headed monster in the Gators defensive backfield; sophomore Will Hill, juniors Ahmad Black and The Major Wright.

In the greatest performance ever by a Gator defense, it was Wright's hit and Black's game-saving interception against Oklahoma that will forever stand out in the minds of Florida fans. Yet, neither is guaranteed of their starting job as 2009 begins. The emergence of Hill in fall camp has put Wright on notice, while Dorian Munroe had been breathing down Black's neck until Munroe's injury. Florida's wealth will ultimately put at least one of these game changers on the bench.

Black went from playing in four games as a freshman to being tied with the national lead in interceptions with seven. That type of growth can induce pain as well, as Urban Meyer's cryptic line about Black's non-football issues can make you wonder where the junior's head is at. Black has the ability to repeat his 2008 campaign, but the second year is harder since he is no longer a surprise. If Black wants to continue being a ball-hawking DB, he has to be able to perform as a star.

If you remember when Will Hill declared he would go to Florida, it seemed as if Florida had their torch carrier following Reggie Nelson. But after being used as a typical freshman; 2 picks, 29 tackles, 19 assists in 13 games, Hill has shown the talent that made him so highly recruited as a high school senior. With The Major out due to a concussion, Hill has filled the void, with teammates calling him the best defender in camp.

Wright's hit against Manny Johnson may have set the tone in the Oklahoma game, but it was his interception shortly before halftime that kept the game 7-7. Had Oklahoma taken a 14-7 lead, who knows what would have happened in the second half? But you can't live on one game, which is why The Major has been pushed to improve. Wright understands this;

"There's always room for me to get better,'' Wright said. "I just try to work on everything that people critique me on. I do more to get better."

Like with Black, Wright can't assume automatic improvement. His awareness that being a head hunter can backfire is good, as it is impossible to expect corners Joe Haden and Janoris Jenkins will be able to lock down everyone. As good as Haden and Jenkins are, they are not All-Americans, while Wright, Hill and Black have that extra level that puts them at the top of the class. If Florida's line struggles to get in the backfield, the secondary will have to lead, and it is this triumvirate that will do it.

Post-Spring Previews: Florida Gators

Gamecock Man — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 18:37:28 -0000

More photos » by Phil Sandlin - AP

4 months ago: Florida quarterback Tim tebow (15) and coach Urban Meyer, left, talk during the teams first practice in Gainesville, Fla., Thursday, Aug. 6, 2009, (AP Photo/Phil Sandlin)

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After taking on Arkansas in Fayetteville, the Gamecocks return to Columbia to round out the SEC slate against the Florida Gators. The Gators, of course, are near-consensus picks to repeat as SEC and national champions. Therefore, even if we're playing well at this point and even though the game is at home, we can expect to be a sizeable underdog. With good reason, too: the Gators return the vast majority of the significant contributors from last year's dominant group. They do lose a few key players, such as all-purpose threat Percy Harvin, but those losses should be negated by greater overall experience and depth and the infusion of young talent Urban Meyer has brought to Gainesville in his past few recruiting classes. The Gators may not be unbeatable, but they're the closest thing to it that we'll see all year, and better teams than us will probably lose to them by multiple touchdowns. That being the case, this is obviously going to be a tough upset to pull.

Let's take a look at the Gators.

Offense

The Gators run Urban Meyer's famous spread-option offense. Fellow Gamecocks blogger Photon Torpedo Tube put up a good breakdown of this scheme last year before our game, so I would suggest you take a look at it if you want to know more about Meyer's offense and how to defend it.

Quarterbacks

Florida returns Tim Tebow for one final season. Tebow, of course, needs no introduction. I have little doubt he'll go down in history as one of the very best college quarterbacks ever. Obviously, the Gators have a huge advantage in this department, as they do against every team not located in Austin, TX or Norman, OK.

Verdict: Strong advantage Florida

Running Backs

Florida led the SEC in rushing last year despite not using a traditional running game and not playing a true running back on most plays. Typically, this involved running the option with Tebow under center and a group of hybrid receiver / tailback guys like Harvin, Jeffrey Demps, and Chris Rainey running out of the backfield and breaking off long runs with their speed. Expect the Gators to continue to run the ball well, but also expect them to run out of more traditional sets this year, as Meyer has claimed that he plans to run out of the I at times this year in order to get Tebow ready for the NFL, to utilize the skills of more traditional tailback Emmanuel Moody, and to generally mix things up. The Gators will likely shift between these sets and their spread formations, which best utilize the skills Tebow, Demps, Rainey, and highly recruited speedster Andre Debose bring to the table.

I'm tempted to only give the Gators a small advantage here, as I am beginning to firmly believe that we will rise into the upper half of the SEC in rushing yards this year. However, I just can't do that at this point; what we know for sure is that Florida was unstoppable on the ground last year and that we were one of the conference's worst.

Verdict: Strong advantage Florida

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

The Gators lose some key contributors here due to the departures of Harvin and Louis Murphy. They will rely on star junior tight end Aaron Hernandez to carry the load. Luckily for the rest of the SEC, Hernandez will likely be gone after this year, as he's a prime NFL prospect. The Gators will rely on guys like David Nelson and Riley Cooper to help Hernandez fill the void left by Harvin and Murphy.

I only see a slight advantage for Florida here, mainly due to the fact that these Gators are untested. However, there's plenty of talent around and we can probably expect someone we haven't heard a lot about yet to make a big contribution. Plus, the Gators have a good enough quarterback and all-around offense to negate the lack of experience here. The passing game will be fine for Florida.

Verdict: Slight advantage Florida

Offensive Line

Offensive line is what's getting a lot of attention as a potential concern for the Gators, who lose both tackles and are still trying to settle on a rotation. Finding competent replacements at those positions will be key for the Gators if they want to win another national title. Florida does return a talented guard duo in brothers Maurkice and Mike Pouncey. The Gators may play Carl Johnson at left tackle. The other positions are up for grabs between a group of unprovens.

I give Florida a slight advantage here. The Gators certainly have cause for concern at offensive line and will be tested right away when they take on Tennessee's formidable defense in week three. (I actually think this game will be much closer than most people if--and this is a big if-Tennessee plays safe on offense and doesn't allow Florida's formidable defense to blow the game open with turnovers.) However, as usual, the talent is there. Like last year, this line will probably be playing well by the time Florida plays us, as they will have had time to figure out a good lineup and establish chemistry.

Let's take a look at defenses after the jump.

Defense

As most Carolina fans know, former USC defensive coordinator Charlie Strong heads up Florida's defense. Strong has done a great job leading the Gators, as he did while at Carolina. Strong tends to run out of the 4-3 and nickel back sets. He's known for being agressive.

Defensive Line

The Gators return all their starters at defensive line. That includes end Carlos Dunlap, one of the country's best. The tackle positions go to Lawrence Marsh and Terron Sanders, while Jermaine Cunningham plays opposite Dunlap. As if this group of starters wasn't good enough, the Gators are very deep here, too, and should be able to rotate frequently and weather any major injuries.

I give the Gators a slight advantage here. I like our starting defensive line a lot, but Florida's depth gives them an adantage, especially with this game coming late in the year.

Verdict: Slight advantage Florida

Linebackers

Like Eric Norwood, Florida's Brandon Spikes is a defensive leader that decided to come back for one more year. Spikes will be flanked by Ryan Stamper and Brandon Hill. Dustin Doe and A.J. Jones will also see time outside.

The Gators get another slight advantage here. I'm inclined to believe that Eric Norwood is as good as any linebacker in the league, including Spikes. I also think Rodney Paulk is fully capable of holding his own. However, depth is again an issue for us here, especially in comparison to Florida.

Verdict: Slight advantage Florida

Secondary

The Gators return a talented, deep secondary that will be one of the nation's best. Major Wright and Ahmad Black will start at safety, while Janoris Jenkins and Joe Haden will line up at corner. The Gators have plenty of guys on the depth chart that can fill in if injuries occur or in packages that have more defensive backs. Just think; Matthew Stafford ripped this group a new one only two years ago. That seems long ago now.

I've gone on record many times this off-season saying that I think we'll have problems at secondary. Reports out of August practice are that we might be better than expected, but I still don't think we'll be as good as this group.

Verdict: Strong advantage Florida

Special Teams

Senior Brandon James is likely the nation's best return man; he's certainly the best for punt returns. Florida's talented depth chart gives them plenty of guys on coverage units that would start for most teams. Punter Chas Henry is a good one. Kicker Jonathan Phillips was accurate last year but was very rarely asked to kick longer field goals, so his range is a question mark if the issue ever comes up. Overall, a really good group.

I'll give Florida a slight advantage here, mainly due to James and their greater experience at kicker.

Verdict: Slight advantage Florida

Head Coaches

You know, the days when people were favorably comparing Steve Spurrier to Urban Meyer seem like they were just yesterday but at the same time seem so far away now. You remember: we beat Florida in 2005, completely outplayed them in 2006 but lost due to Jarvis Moss's special teams heroics, and were riding high early in 2007 while Florida struggled out of the gate. Then the bottom fell through on Spurrier's program: five straight losses to end 2007, including a blowout loss to Florida in Columbia, and a mediocre 2008, including a huge blowout to the Gators in Gainesville in a game where Florida really made us look like an FCS team. Now, most say that Spurrier is washed up and that Urban is the best coach in the land. I would disagree that Spurrier is washed up--and I think others may too after couple of years of improved offense with Stephen Garcia under center--but I won't disagree that Urban is a fantastic coach. Whatever you want to believe about his professional ethics, the guy is an offensive genius and an amazing recruiter. Personally, I think he's supplanted Pete Carrol as the country's best coach. I'll go ahead and give Urban the big advantage here; he's at the top of his game, while Spurrier comes into this year with a lot to prove.

Verdict: Strong advantage Florida

Overall

As these predictions suggest, I don't at all like our chances in this game. Florida is simply going to be very, very good this year, and even if we end up being pretty good ourselves, I just think the Gators have more going for them across the board than we do. I do think this game will be closer this year than it was last year, but that's probably partially because last year's game should have been closer than it was; we weren't as bad last year as we played in the final three games. I think that we'll make this one interesting at times, but Florida will pull away for a comfortable victory in the end.

Prediction: 17-point Florida victory

Poll

The Florida game will result in a (elaborate in the comments)...

Blowout Carolina victory...

3 votes

Close Carolina victory...

3 votes

Close Florida victory...

13 votes

Blowout Florida victory...

64 votes

83 votes | Poll has closed

SEC 2009 // Meet the New Gators, Same as the Old Gators

Year2 — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 14:30:09 -0000

More photos » by Phil Sandlin - AP

Florida safety Dee Finlley pulls in a pass in the rain as the Gator freshman football team opened their season practice. (AP Photo/Phil Sandlin)

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Had I written a roster post for Florida last year, it would have made this one heck of a lot easier. I could just copy and paste it, delete the sections on Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy, and then be done, right?

Well, yes and no.

Of course Florida has a lot of guys back from last year. That's where the whole "consensus preseason No. 1" stuff comes from. Seven offensive starters return, and the top 22 from the defense come back. Some will say top 21 and point to the transfer of DT Torrey Davis as the missing one, but I'd ask you when you were taking the depth chart snapshot. He registered all of five tackles before the bowl and spent much of the year in the coaches' doghouse.

The quarterbacks are set. We know that. Tim Tebow is starting with John Brantley backing him up. About the only thing worth mentioning here is that Urban Meyer says Brantley has a package of plays and will get spot work in meaningful situations. I doubt he'll do as much as Tebow did in 2006, but he's going to get non-garbage time minutes.

Speaking of 2006, that leads to the receivers.

They are the biggest question mark on the offense, what with Harvin and Murphy gone. The unit is probably going to approximate the one that Meyer had in his first championship year down to the man. David Nelson will be Dallas Baker, the tall guy. Deonte Thompson will be Andre Caldwell, the speedy guy. Carl Moore will be Jemalle Cornelius, the possession guy. Freshman Andre Debose will be Percy Harvin, the slash guy. Aaron Hernandez will be Cornelius Ingram, the receiving tight end. Riley Cooper will be, well, Riley Cooper.

The biggest difference is that Hernandez is a known quantity from the beginning, a playmaker waiting to break out. Ingram was still adjusting to being a tight end, having come in as a quarterback, but Hernandez will be ready from Day 1.

The running backs are in much better shape this time around compared to '06 though. Jeff Demps, when he's not moonlighting in the Percy Position, will probably be the primary back. He's fast and hits holes with authority despite his size. Chris Rainey is exciting with his ability to make people miss, but he dances around too much to be the top guy. Emmanuel Moody will be the biggest beneficiary from the new I-formation sets, but he's not guaranteed to get many carries. It'd be a big boost if he could be the big back playmaker that Florida has lacked since the time of Ciatrick Fason, but he hasn't put it all together yet.

Moody and Rainey also tend to get hurt, which further solidifies Demps in the top spot. Return man extraordinaire Brandon James and freshman Mike Gillislee are in the mix as well, but I don't know how many balls there will be to go around.

The offensive line will be the key to everything. The Gator offense didn't take off last year until it gelled around the fourth quarter of last year's game with Arkansas. Three fifths of it are rock solid with Maurkice Pouncey, Mike Pouncey, and Carl Johnson back from starting in 2008.

After that, some combination of redshirt sophomore James Wilson, sophomore Matt Patchan (who played defense last year, like Mike Pouncey did in '07 before moving back to offense in '08), and redshirt junior Marcus Gilbert will fill the other roles. Redshirt freshman Sam Robey made some noise in the spring, and true freshman Xavier Nixon has impressed in fall practice. All of those guys except Robey were four or five star recruits according to Rivals, so it's likely that no matter which five take the field, it will be a good group. It better be, if UF is to repeat as champs.

The defensive line is in flux a bit, as it has been every year since most of the excellent 2006 line graduated. All the starters are back, but only Jermaine Cunningham looks set in his job. Tackles Terron Sanders and Lawrence Marsh are getting pushed hard by Jaye Howard, and this may be the year that Carlos Dunlap gets the starting role over Justin Trattou. Dunlap led the SEC with 9.5 sacks last year, but uneven effort kept him behind Trattou on the depth chart.

The linebackers are two thirds set. Brandon Spikes and Ryan Stamper are every bit the senior leaders and performers that any team would want. The final spot is currently a revolving door of A.J. Jones, Brandon Hicks, and, when he gets back from suspension, Dustin Doe. All three of those guys have started games, so whoever ends up there for good (if anyone) will be quality. Young bucks Jon Bostic and Brendan Beal are pushing for playing time as well.

The secondary is perhaps the strength of the entire team, something that would seem impossible during 2007's burnfest. The corners are right now Joe Haden and freshman All American Janoris Jenkins, a formidable duo. Wondy Pierre-Louis, Markihe Anderson, and Moses Jenkins are good enough as backups. The one to watch though is redshirt freshman Jeremy Brown, who missed last season to injury. Meyer has lamented that at the time of his injury, Brown was actually ahead of Janoris Jenkins on the depth chart.

The safeties are loaded. The two starters are back, the big hitting Major Wright and the ball hawking Ahmad Black. Wright struggles in coverage though, and Black can't lay the wood. As a result, sophomore all-everything recruit Will Hill has been impossible to keep off the field since the spring. Also in the mix are senior Dorian Munroe, who missed last season due to injury but has played well in the past, and newcomer Dee Finley.

The special teams will look exactly the same. Dangerous return man Brandon James is back (his last year I promise, Tennessee fans), and so are P Chas Henry and K Jonathan Phillips. Phillips missed just one field goal and one extra point (the fateful blocked one against Ole Miss) in all of 2008, but his longest made FG was only from 40 yards. The big-legged Caleb Sturgis might get a chance to kick the longer ones. The tradition of key players contributing on special teams will continue as in past years, most notably with the addition of Demps as the gunner on punt coverage.

The depth across the board is much to Florida's advantage, and the coaches are delighting in the ability to replace underperformers in practice with another quality guy. If you want to nit pick about the receivers, two O-linemen, and the third linebacker go ahead, but just about any coach in the nation would trade his roster for this one.

MONDAY: Florida's Song Remains the Same, Florida's Heisman winners

TUESDAY: The Underdogs Florida Will Face, Don't Miss Tebow's Last Year

LATER TODAY: Coaching Changes

THURSDAY: Predictions

FRIDAY: Conclusions