SB Nation - Aron White

Kentucky @ Georgia: Abbreviated Look at the Dogs

Ken Howlett — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 23:45:16 -0000

Will UK fans tear down the goal posts on an opponent's field?

UK (6-4, 2-4 SEC), coming off a victory at Vanderbilt which secured the 'Cats' bowl eligibility, tackles the 6-4 (4-3 SEC) Georgia Bulldogs in Athens, Georgia tonight at 7:45 EST. Kentucky, hoping to improve the chances of playing a bowl game outside the state of Tennessee, haven't beaten the Bulldogs in Athens since 1977, a 33-0 'Cat-washing of the pre-Hershel Walker Bulldogs.

If UK clinches a winning season tonight, this is who they must execute the coup-de-tat against ... after the jump:

Joe Cox -- 6'1", 198 lb senior quarterback: Cox is 150-259 through the air, good for 2,059 yards, 12 interceptions and 18 touchdowns.

Caleb King -- 5'11", 210 lb redshirt sophomore running back: King, who only recently earned the starting spot at running back has rushed for 291 yards on 62 carries (4.7 yards per carry) and three touchdowns.

Washaun Ealey -- 5'11", 205 lb freshman running back: The true freshman has rushed 73 times for 379 yards (5.2 ypc) and three touchdowns. He also caught two passes for 26 yards (13.0 yards per reception).

Richard Samuel -- 6'2", 222 lb sophomore running back: Samuel has rushed 88 times for 395 yards (4.5 ypc) and two touchdowns. He's also caught six passes for 39 yards (6.5 ypr).

Tavarres King -- 6'1", 180 redshirt sophomore wide receiver: King is listed as No.1 on the depth chart at the receiver spot for Georgia even though he has made only 15 catches for 268 yards (17.9 ypr). He's scored one touchdown.

Aron White -- 6'4", 236 lb redshirt sophomore tight end: White has made nine catches for 151 yards (16.8 ypr), good for two touchdowns.

Michael Moore -- 6'2", 210 lb senior wide receiver: Moore is Georgia's leading receiver with A. J. Green out for the contest. Moore has caught 21 passes for 187 yards (8.9 ypr) and four touchdowns.

Orson Charles -- 6'3", 230 lb freshman tight end: Charles has made 16 catches for 284 yards (17.8 pr) and two touchdowns. Charles, along with fellow tight end Aron White will be utilized heavily in passing downs.

Prince Miller -- 5'8", 198 lb senior punt returner: Miller is one of he SEC's leading returners, averaging 12.1 yards per return on 17 punts.

Drew Butler -- Georgia's punter is one of the leading punters in the nation, averaging 49.0 yards per punt (45 punts).

There, folks, you have the high-points.

Thanks for reading, and Go 'Cats!

ASU @ Georgia: How the Game May Play Out

mlev811 — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 22:19:38 -0000

Here's a quick rundown of how I expect the game to play out.

Coin Toss: Won by ASU, elect to receive.

If we win the toss, electing to receive will be the best option. It gives the defense some time to settle into the atmosphere and prepare to take the field.

1ST Quarter: The Devils start with a quick first down, but are forced to punt at their own 38. After a decent punt by Hankins, the Dawgs take the field and move the ball quickly against an overwhelmed D. The D is able to recover and hold Georgia to a FG. ASU will get the ball back with 6 minutes left in the 1st quarter, and drive to the UGA 25. Erickson will elect to go for it on a 4th down, with little success. We are going to really miss Weber. End of the first quarter and its UGA 3 ASU 0.

2ND Quarter: UGA starts the quarter with a big play to who else, AJ Green. They quickly get inside the 5 and Joe Cox sneaks it into the endzone to take a 10-0 lead. After a decent return by Bolden, Nance breaks off for a 30-yd run to the UGA 40. Sullivan will complete a pass across the middle to Williams who will dance his way into the UGA redzone. A few more Nance runs bring ASU to the UGA 13, where Wenzig enters for a FG. After making it, its a 10-3 UGA lead. UGA will return the favor and take a 13-3 halftime lead.

Halftime

3RD Quarter: UGA starts with the ball and gets a quick return to the ASU 45. Three quick passing plays later, and Green scores to put Georgia up 20-3. The Devils receive the ball and piece together a solid drive, led by catches from Mcgaha and Robinson. Bass enters and runs into the endzone from 18 yards out, and the Devils close the gap to 10 points. Georgia 20, ASU 10. UGA gets the ball and drives to their own 48 before the defense shuts them down. Williams fair catches at the ASU 10, and Sullivan gets back on the field to try and carry the Devils back to the endzone. Sullivan throws a screen pass to Dewitty and the Devils begin their drive. After 2 straight runs up the middle for 2 yards, Sully throws incomplete and forces the Devils to kick. End of the 3rd Quarter, UGA 20-ASU 10.

4th Quarter: Richard Samuel breaks loose for a 40 yard run followed by a 30 yard bomb to Aron White, and UGA quickly gets up on the scoreboard. Georgia takes a 27-10 lead. After three straight 3 and outs, the Devils have the ball with 5 minutes remaining. A few short passes to Williams and Nance carry ASU to the UGA 40. Nance catches a quick dump-off pass, and ASU gets the ball to the UGA 18. Sullivan completes a pass with Javon Williams to bring the Devils to the 4. After three incomplete passes, the Devils are forced to go for it on 4th and goal. Sullivan drops back and gets sacked, and UGA gets the ball with 2:20 to go. The Devils D is unable to stop the Bulldogs, and Georgia runs out the clock.

Final Score Prediction: UGA 27 ASU 10.

We are 1 hour from gametime, and the report is its pouring rain in Athens. Let's hope for an upset and a big road win for the Devils!

Beating The Bulldogs: A Georgia Blog's Take

Cory Williams — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 05:48:16 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

3 months ago: Georgia's Brandon Boykin, top, and Rennie Curran celebrate after Georgia defeated South Carolina 41-37 in an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 12, 2009, in Athens, Ga. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Browse more photos »

Just like last season, T. Kyle King from the top notch Georgia blog Dawg Sports has agreed to exchange a Q&A. We are grateful for his hard work and insight.

You may read my responses to his questions here, and I recommend joining his blog's GameThread to enjoy a high level of camaraderie with Bulldog fans.

With regard to the Georgia game tomorrow, ASU fans are well aware of the pedigree of the opposition. After the 27-10 thrashing witnessed in Tempe in 2008, Sun Devil faithful can only hope for a strong showing in SEC territory.

After all, it's all about the OOC schedule; with a good game against Georgia on the resume, ASU will find itself confident and prepared to make a run at the Pac-10 crown.

Without further ado, here is the Q&A:

Whom should the Sun Devils fear on offense?

Whom shouldn’t the Sun Devils fear on offense? Last Saturday night, Joe Cox earned national offensive player of the week honors by guiding nine scoring drives against Arkansas, six of which ended in touchdowns and six of which covered at least 57 yards. Orson Charles, A.J. Green, Tavarres King, and Aron White all caught TD passes. Richard Samuel, who had an 80-yard scoring scamper, is being pushed for playing time by newly-resurgent Caleb King.

Granted, all of that came against a suspect Razorback defense, but the Bulldogs tallied four offensive touchdowns against a pretty solid South Carolina D in a game in which Green and Michael Moore each had catches that went for touchdowns and Branden Smith scored on a 61-yard reverse. Right now, the Georgia offense is hitting on all cylinders, and it isn’t just one guy doing everything. The offseason theme in Athens has been that "it’s all about the team." On offense, that’s really true.

Whom should Arizona State fear on defense?

The secondary. Just kidding. As much as I’m hoping it will turn out to be Justin Houston, the answer (with all due respect to Jeff Owens) is Rennie Curran. The junior linebacker opened the campaign with eight tackles and a pass breakup in Stillwater, tied his personal-best 15 tackles against South Carolina (when he broke up a fourth-down pass near the goal line to preserve the win), and led the squad with eleven stops and a fumble recovery in Fayetteville last Saturday night.

Curran, whom The Sporting News identified as the SEC’s best hitter, was a preseason first-team all-SEC selection, and he is on the watch lists for the Lombardi Award, the Lott Trophy, the Chuck Bednarik Award, the Butkus Award, and the Bronko Nagurski Trophy. Eventually, at least one of those honors will be renamed "the Curran Trophy." He’s that good.

More from Dawg Sports after the jump...

What is Georgia’s biggest weakness?

Where do I begin? The Bulldogs commit too many turnovers and are flagged for too many penalties, many of which are of the "rookie mistake" variety rather than of the "playing aggressively" sort. Although the run defense is stout, the Georgia D is fooled by too many play action fakes. The secondary has failed to take away the deep ball, often getting caught out of position, and the middle of the field frequently is left open, much to the delight of opposing tight ends everywhere. The Red and Black have surrendered 37 or more points in seven of their last twelve games. Georgia’s kickoff coverage is a mess and directional kicking often sends the ball out of bounds to give the other team good starting field position, anyway.

Other than those few flaws, though, the ‘Dawgs are playing perfectly.

How are your new recruits working out and what role will they play in deciding the outcome?

Like all rookies at top-tier programs, they are displaying outrageous talent while committing mistakes born of youth. True freshman Branden Smith is a classic example, as he brought out a kickoff that should have been downed in the end zone and committed a costly turnover against South Carolina, but who turned right around and demonstrated his impressive speed on the aforementioned reverse.

The word is that redshirt freshman Sanders Commings, who was effective in the spring scrimmage, will see more playing time in the secondary, but, so far, the breakout star of the 2009 recruiting class has to be Orson Charles. The tight end from Tampa endeared himself to the Georgia faithful forever by shattering the Florida Gators’ 2006 national championship trophy with his behind while on a recruiting visit to Gainesville, but Charles also has shown early signs of living up to the hype. If he has a big game, the Bulldogs will have a big game. Who knows? Maybe Orson will have his big-time debut against Arizona State this year the way A.J. did a year ago. . . .

What If...Jeremy Maclin Hadn't Injured His Knee in 2006? (Part One)

Bill C. — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 18:00:08 -0000

Even though we knew Jeremy Maclin's Friday announcement of his pro intentions was coming, it's still sparked a small wave of nostalgia. It's a shame that the guy was quite likely the best wide receiver in Missouri history only played on Faurot Field for two years. It's hard not to wish for at least a third year. And while there was obviously little to no likelihood of his coming back for 2009, we were really gypped out of another year: 2006.

So let's put on our "What If..." cap for a bit. In 2006, Missouri flew out of the gates at 6-0 and stumbled a bit down the stretch, but still ended up exceeding preseason expectations with an 8-5 campaign. They were a pleasant surprise overall, but they struggled at times, especially against Iowa State, when pretty much every receiver on the team other than Tommy Saunders limped off the field at some point, and a last-second comeback attempt fell short. What if Chase Daniel had had Maclin to throw to that day...or any other? What would that have done for the 2006 squad? And if it would have helped that squad (as we know it would have), would it have helped recruiting too? Jeremy Maclin's legacy is already deep and well-defined, but what if Mizzou really had gotten three seasons out of him? What if...Jeremy Maclin hadn't injured his knee on July 25, 2006?

2006

I didn't necessarily believe the reports at the time--that Jeremy Maclin was tearing up summer practices, and that there was no way Missouri would be able to keep him off the field in '06. It seems the main goal of the practice reports you read are to pump you up for the fall. Knowing what I know now, I'd say they were probably pretty damn accurate. Knowing what I know now, the odds of his starting the season high on the depth chart were astronomical.

Week 1 Depth Chart	With Maclin
Will Franklin (Jr) Brad Ekwerekwu (Sr) Tommy Saunders (So) Jared Perry (Fr) Danario Alexander (Fr) Jason Ray (Jr) Greg Bracey (Jr)	Will Franklin (Jr) Jeremy Maclin (Fr) Brad Ekwerekwu (Sr) Tommy Saunders (So) Jared Perry (Fr) ~~Danario Alexander~~ (redshirting) Jason Ray (Jr) Greg Bracey (Jr)

If memory serves, Perry was too impressive to redshirt more-or-less from the get-go, but Alexander was a late decision. With Maclin dominating, I think the staff would have decided not to play all three true freshmen, and Alexander would have donned the red. Ekwerekwu had appendix surgery toward the end of August, and his status for starting in Week One was a bit uncertain for a while. This uncertainty, plus the likelihood that Maclin really was that good as a true freshman, would have resulted in two St. Louis natives atop the WR list.

So here's the next question: how much would Maclin have contributed? Let's do this: let's look at what percentage of overall Mizzou WR catches he nabbed in 2007 as a redshirt freshman and apply it to 2006.

(And if you couldn't care less about the data, just skip down to the "2006: Old vs New" table after the jump.)

Catches by 2007 Mizzou WRs
WR	Catches	% of all
Jeremy Maclin	80	34.6%
Will Franklin	49	21.2%
Tommy Saunders	41	17.7%
Danario Alexander	37	16.0%
Jared Perry	13	5.6%
Jason Ray	8	3.5%
Greg Bracey	3	1.3%

Let's look at how the distribution was in 2006 without Maclin:

Catches by 2006 Mizzou WRs
WR	Catches	% of all
Will Franklin	48	28.9%
Jared Perry	37	22.3%
Brad Ekwerekwu	32	19.3%
Tommy Saunders	25	15.1%
Danario Alexander	15	9.0%
Jason Ray	6	3.6%
Greg Bracey	3	1.8%

Now let's look at how Chase Daniel's tendencies changed from 2006 (without Maclin) to 2007 (with him). This will actually be quite telling, as there was almost no personnel change in the WR/TE unit from '06 to '07--they just replaced Ek in '06 with Maclin in '07.

Completions by Position, 2006-07
	2006		2007
Position	Completions	% of Comp.	Completions	% of Comp.
Wide Receivers	166	57.0%	231	58.6%
Tight Ends	111	38.1%	136	34.5%
Running Backs	14	4.9%	27	6.9%

Obviously not a lot changed as far as Daniel's pass distribution numbers are concerned.

One last thing we need to look at: Chase Daniel's overall numbers.

Season	Comp	Attempts	Yards	TD	INT	Comp %	Yds Per Pass	Yds Per Comp
2006	287	452	3527	28	10	63.5%	7.80	12.29
2007	384	563	4306	33	11	68.2%	7.65	11.21

The first thing to notice is, Daniel's per-pass and per-completion numbers actually went down in 2007 with Maclin in the rotation. I wouldn't have guessed that. Looking at the numbers, you really can't say Daniel's yards-per numbers would have changed all that much with Maclin. And while his INT rate improved (2.2% in 2006, 2.0% in 2007), Daniel's natural maturation process has to account for some of that.

So basically the only thing that might have changed is completion percentage. Daniel's completion % went up 4.7%, from 63.5 to 68.2, between 2006 and 2007. Again, a lot of that has to be attributed to maturation. But all? If he's throwing to Maclin instead of Brad Ekwerekwu, Saunders instead of Perry, Perry instead of Alexander, wouldn't his % have gone up at least a smidge? We're going to say yes. A smidge. We're going to say that with Maclin, Daniel's 2006 completion rate would have been 65.1%. That assigns 1/3 of his rate improvement to better options, 2/3 to maturation.

So now let's work backwards.

65.1% of 452 passes = 294 completions, an improvement of 7 balls. Other passers (Brandon Coleman, Tommy Saunders, Brad Ekwerekwu, Chase Coffman) still account for a 4-for-13, 63 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT line. So now there are 298 passes completed in the 2006 season.
57.0% of those completions go to WRs = 170 WR receptions (along with 114 TE receptions and still 14 RB receptions). With Alexander out of the mix and Maclin now in, here is the pass distribution for 2006, using unadjusted per-catch averages:

Player	Catches	Yards	Est. TDs
Jeremy Maclin	59	779	6.6
Will Franklin	35	605	4.4
Jared Perry	27	313	2.2
Brad Ekwerekwu	24	323	1.5
Tommy Saunders	18	195	1.4
Jason Ray	4	33	0.0
Greg Bracey	3	79	1.0
*TOTAL WR*	170	2,327	17.1
All Tight Ends	114	1,180	14.4
All Running Backs	14	102	0.0
*TOTAL*	298	3,609	31.5

Or, for means of comparison...

*Season*	*Comp*	*Attempts*	*Yards*	TD	*INT*	*Comp %*	*Yds Per Pass*	*Yds Per Comp*
Old 2006	287	452	3527	28	10	63.5%	7.80	12.29
New 2006	298	452	3609	31.5	10	65.9%	7.98	12.11
Diff	+11	+0	+82	+3.5	+0	+2.4%	+0.18	-0.18

So having Maclin in the receiving corps resulted in the following:

An extra 6.3 yards per game passing
An extra 1.9 points per game from the passing game (3.5 TDs). We'll apply those points randomly, basically letting them accumulate and cashing them in. Meaning, we'll say Missouri scored an extra touchdown in the fourth game of the season, the 8th, and the 11th game, and an extra field goal in the 13th. I'm not going to automatically say "We'd have scored these TDs in the games we lost," or anything like that. Let's apply the points in random fashion.

So...what about the return game? Well, we can do this one of two ways. We can either compare his return averages to the 2006 return averages (Goldsmith/Woods on KRs, Saunders on PRs) and add the difference to each return...or we can keep it random and say that the returns would have stayed basically the same, aside from the three return TDs he had (a punt return against Illinois in Game #1, a punt return against Illinois State in Game #4, a kickoff return against Kansas State in Game #11). Because this post is already getting longer than I had intended, let's go with random again. Let's apply an extra TD to those three games--#1, #4, #11.

So in the end, we are basically adding points to the following games.

Punt return TD in Game #1
Receiving TD, Punt return TD in Game #4
Receiving TD in Game #8
Receiving TD in Game #11, Kickoff return TD in Game #11
Field Goal in Game #13

Did you like how we mixed intricate data with total randomness? Me too.

2006: Old vs New
	Old 2006			New 2006
Opponent	W/L	MU	Opp	W/L	MU	Opp	Record	Conf. Rec.
Murray State	W	47	7	W	54	7	1-0
Ole Miss	W	34	7	W	34	7	2-0
@ New Mexico	W	27	17	W	27	17	3-0
Ohio U.	W	31	6	W	45	6	4-0
Colorado	W	28	13	W	28	13	5-0	1-0
@ Texas Tech	W	38	21	W	38	21	6-0	2-0
@ Texas A&M	L	19	25	L	19	25	6-1	2-1
Kansas State	W	41	21	W	48	21	7-1	3-1
Oklahoma	L	10	26	L	10	26	7-2	3-2
@ Nebraska	L	20	34	L	20	34	7-3	3-3
@ Iowa State	L	16	21	W	30	21	8-3	4-3
Kansas	W	42	17	W	42	17	9-3	5-3
Oregon State	L	38	39	W	41	39	10-3

We all remember 2006. There were three "coulda woulda shoulda" games for Missouri--@ATM, @ISU, and vs Oregon State. We could easily say that the ball Will Franklin fumbled at the 1 against ATM would have gone to Maclin, and Maclin was faster and would have scored, and Mizzou would have won. We could even say that the inside screen against Nebraska that was a bit too high and Franklin volleyed right to Adam Carriker...that coulda gone to Maclin too, and he would have just caught it, and that could have prevented Missouri from falling behind 17-0. Hell, we could even say that a couple of the picks Chase Daniel threw against OU wouldn't have been going to lesser receivers, and that they might not have happened.

But we're just not going to go there. With all the injuries that took place against Iowa State (Franklin got hurt in Q1, and Coffman, Rucker and Ekwerekwu had all hobbled off the field by Q4), I'm confident in saying Mizzou would have won that game with Maclin running routes for four quarters, and in a Sun Bowl that Mizzou could have won had any of about seven different plays not gone against them, one extra Mizzou weapon could have made the difference there. For grins, we'll say a 2006 team with Maclin still loses four of five in the middle of the season, but rights the ship down the stretch and goes 10-3, winning its second straight bowl game.

So what does that do to recruiting?

2007 Recruiting Class

The 2007 Recruiting Class was full of what if's. Two Rock Bridge products--QB Logan Gray and TE Aron White--ended up signing with Georgia. Hazelwood Central QB Marvin McNutt went to Iowa. Blue Springs OT Donald Stephenson went to Oklahoma. Four-star Hazelwood West ATH LaMark Brown went to K-State. It wasn't Missouri's best job of sealing the borders. Would Missouri's first 10-win season in decades have changed that?

Probably not. Gray and White were both locked up by Georgia in September. McNutt committed over the summer. Stephenson would have likely gone to OU no matter what. Brown supposedly wavered on his commitment for a little while in December, but it was all rumors for all we know. So Missouri's strong performance probably would have come along too late in the recruiting game to affect much. Really, only a couple of late prospects' minds might have been changed.

Their names? William Cole...and Dezmon Briscoe.

But we'll get to that in Part Two.