SB Nation - Ryan Perrilloux

The LSU Preview

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:16:56 -0000

No smoke and mirrors needed this week. No clever turn of phrase needed to build drama and intrigue with this game. Nope. To paraphrase what they say in the sales business, this is simply a game that sells itself. It's 'Bama v. LSU. Saban Bowl III. National championship implications clearly on the line. The entire country turning its eyes towards Tuscaloosa to play close attention at this contest. Again, this one sells itself. Let's look closer at the match-ups:

Alabama Offense v. LSU Defense

After putting up points and yards by the bushel in the first month of the season, the once prolific Alabama offense has slowly ground to a virtual halt over the course of the past five weeks. The vertical element of the passing game went into the Witness Protection Program in early October, and we still haven't seen any signs of it returning as of this writing. Mark Ingram has been nothing short of phenomenal -- sans the fumble against Tennessee -- but the lack of a vertical element to the passing game, combined with untimely penalties, questionable playcalling, and struggles in the red zone have kept the Tide offensive attack at bay and off the scoreboard.

Admittedly, the level of competition has been high the past several weeks. Kentucky has a good defense, and Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Tennessee rank in the top 25 nationally of more statistical categories than not. But such is life in the SEC... it's a brutal gauntlet of quality opponent after quality opponent, and there will be no rest for the weary this weekend when the Bayou Bengals come to town. Alas, when LSU arrives in Tuscaloosa, they will bring with them a defense that is as good as those we saw in October, if not better.

And unfortunately, injuries continue to take a toll on the Tide. Colin Peek looks to either miss this game or play nowhere near 100%, and that's a very big loss for the Tide. Michael Williams will likely play better than he did two weeks ago against Tennessee because he will be more prepared, but Peek is a critical element of our offense, and unfortunately Williams is an imperfect substitute.

Defensively, the weakness for LSU starts up front at the line of scrimmage. Shocking as though that may be -- I imagine I need remind no one that LSU's defensive line ate us for dinner from 2003-2007 -- it is nevertheless true. To be sure, it's certainly not a bad group, but it isn't a dominating one and it is not up to the level that we have come to expect the past several years out of LSU. Inside, seniors Al Woods and Charles Alexander are good players that any team would love to have, but they probably aren't to the level that we saw the past several years out of LSU with Kyle Williams and Glenn Dorsey. Likewise, the rotation isn't what it has been in previous years in terms of quality depth.

The real weakness for LSU on the defensive line largely comes outside at end. Senior Rahim Alem has been a bit of a disappointment this year. He was always a liability against the run -- which is why, despite leading the SEC in sacks in 2008, he wasn't a starter -- but he hasn't rushed the passer as well this year, generating only three sacks in the first eight games (only one of which came in conference play, and that was against Vandy). Opposite Alem, Lazarius Levingston hasn't exactly played poorly, but he hasn't really made an impact either. He has yet to generate a sack, and only has ten tackles on the year. Making matters worse, they are somewhat undersized, and mixed with their lack of a consistent pass rush, that generally explains why LSU's run defense has been somewhat middling, and also explains why they are at the bottom of the SEC in sacks.

Unfortunately, the rest of the LSU defense is significantly better. The linebacker corps struggled greatly in 2008, but they have made tremendous strides in 2009 under new defensive coordinator John Chavis. There is not one standout at linebacker like Alabama has with someone like Rolando McClain -- or had with Dont'a Hightower -- but it's a good group that gets the job done. Perry Riley, Kelvin Sheppard, Harry Coleman, and Jacob Cutrera are all good football players, and they are in many ways unique players that give Chavis a lot of options. Riley is a big, physical player who excels against against the run, and Coleman's past as a former safety makes him a very versatile player, particularly in passing situations. Kelvin Sheppard is probably the best all-around player of the bunch, and while Cutrera isn't a standout, he's a senior who can really play whatever position they need off the bench. Again, it's not a group that has the one rockstar standout like you find with a guy like Rolando McClain or Brandon Spikes, but it's a good group of players that have produced at a high level for John Chavis.

The real strength of the LSU defense, however, comes in the defensive backfield, where the Bayou Bengals have an absolutely ridiculous collection of talent. Just look at the names and their recruiting hype... Chad Jones, #1 safety prospect in the country in 2007. Jai Eugene, #1 cornerback prospect in the country in 2006. Patrick Peterson, #1 cornerback prospect in the country in 2007. And guys like Chris Hawkins, Brandon Taylor, Karnell Hatcher, Ron Brooks, and Danny McCray? Yeah, they were generally "only" four-star recruits who could have had pretty much their pick of any school in the country.

Not surprising given that collection of talent, LSU's defensive backfield has led the way. Patrick Peterson is the best cornerback in the conference now that Kentucky's Trevard Lindley is slowed by an ankle injury, and Chad Jones is every bit as good of a safety as Eric Berry. And, obviously, the rest aren't too shabby. These guys have been the key for the LSU defense this year. The defensive line has struggled and frankly been very bad in terms of rushing the passer, but the back end has covered so well that LSU still fields one of the best pass defenses in the country.

Coach Saban and company have talked about stretching the field vertically this weekend, and that is almost certainly something that we will have to do in order to breathe life back into our deceased offense. LSU does not have the great run defense that they have sported in years past, but it's far from a bad unit, and you can rest assured that they will be able to limit Alabama's running game well enough to force the Tide to do something in the passing game in order to score a lot of points. Keep in mind that, as I mentioned in the Radio Hour, if you are unable to throw the football, then defensively you don't need to stop the run, you only need to somewhat limit the run. In other words, you just have to make sure that the opposing offense doesn't run it down your throats to the tune of 250+ rushing yards. Rest assured, LSU is likely more than good enough to do that up front.

Offensively, Alabama faces the same dilemma that it largely faced against Tennessee. Greg McElroy and the passing attack have struggled to move the football, and the opposing defense will look to limit Ingram and company and force McElroy and the wide receiver corps to beat them. Unless we can be more consistent and explosive in the passing game, the end result looks to be very similar to what it was against Tennessee.

Alabama Defense v. LSU Offense

For all of the strength of the LSU defense, the LSU offense hasn't been anywhere near as good, and if you look closely this is a group that ranks near the bottom of the country in most statistical categories.

At the skill positions, at least, this is an extremely dangerous offense. Without doubt the LSU wide receiver corps is easily the most talented that the Tide will face all season, and literally every single LSU wide receiver that will touch the football this Saturday will be a truly elite athlete in every sense of the phrase. Brandon LaFell will be a first-day draft pick next April, and both Terrance Toliver and Reuben Randle are physically impressive players who were the #1 wide receiver prospects in the country when they came out of high school. Richard Dickson is a good tight end in his own right, and he too will probably play on Sunday. Furthermore, Charles Scott is also a future NFL player, and while Keiland Williams never really lived up to his five-star status when he signed with the Tigers in 2006, he's still a fine player in his own right. And finally, while Russell Shepard and Trindon Holliday are somewhat of one-trick ponies, both have such ungodly speed and athleticism that they can present major challenges to a defense once they get the ball in their hands. Bottom line, struggles or not, if you look at the quality at talent at the skill positions for LSU, you would swear this is an elite offense.

The real problem with LSU offensively has been in the trenches and, perhaps not surprisingly, at the quarterback position. Struggles in those two areas have largely grounded the LSU offensive attack, and have turned an offense that should be high-powered based solely on its skill position talent into a unit that has greatly struggled to move the football and score points.

Ciron Black at left tackle for the Bayou Bengals is a four-year starter who will likely be a first round NFL draft choice next April, and at right tackle Joseph Barksdale -- a five-star recruit in 2007 -- is one of the best right tackles in the SEC. Unfortunately for the Tigers, however, the performance of the centers and guards has dipped significantly. The loss of starting left guard Herman Johnson and starting center Brett Helms have been felt all season, and the replacements just aren't in the same league right now. Josh Dworaczyk took over for Johnson, and the replacement starter for the gargantuan comes in at barely 280 pounds. Likewise, sophomore T-Bob Hebert hasn't necessarily been bad, but again he's just not in the same league as Helms right now. Right guard Lyle Hitt looked solid enough when sandwiched between Helms and Barksdale, but he too has seen his performance dip by having to take on greater responsibilities with Hebert alongside him. As a whole, the performance of the center and the guards just hasn't been anywhere what it was a year ago.

The struggles on the interior offensive line have effectively proven fatal to the LSU rushing attack. I've long said that the biggest impact on your rushing attack comes from the play of your center and your guards, and 2009 Tigers would prove to be a fine case study in that regard. The tackles are there, as are the backs, but LSU has struggled on the interior in the running game, and that has largely killed their rushing attack. The once potent Scott and Williams are averaging only about 4.8 yards per carry now, and prior to facing Tulane and their god awful run defense they were barely averaging 4.0 yards per carry.

The other problem for LSU offensively is quarterback Jordan Jefferson. While clearly an intriguing prospect with a great upside -- Jefferson has a good frame, a big arm, and is a legitimate dual-threat -- Jefferson is really playing out of necessity right now, and it shows. Truth be told, if the LSU coaching staff really had their druthers, Jefferson would probably be riding the pine this year while watching fifth-year senior Ryan Perrilloux run the Tiger offense, but alas the Football Gods would not cooperate. As a result, Jefferson has been forced to make the best of a bad situation, and he has clearly had his growing pains. He holds onto the ball entirely too long which creates a lot of sacks -- which explains why LSU is near the bottom of the conference in sacks allowed despite having the best tackle combo in the league -- often struggles to work through his progression, and does struggle at times to get the ball to his talented wide receivers. Combined, this has largely grounded what should otherwise be an explosive passing attack.

In all fairness, though, what Jefferson has done is manage the game and not get his Tigers beat. For all of the criticisms that you can make regarding his performance to date, he has protected the football, which is clearly priority number one for the LSU coaching staff. Jefferson has thrown a mere four interceptions this year on roughly 200 passing attempts, and has allowed the LSU defense to lead them to victory in close games. If nothing else, that is far more than could ever be said for the man that Jefferson replaced.

Defensively, Alabama brings the attack that you all know so well, and there will probably be little changes this week. Charles Scott and Keiland Williams had great success running the football against us a year ago, but with a healthy Terrence Cody this time around, plus Herman Johnson and Brett Helms playing on Sunday, the Tide ought to shut down the LSU rushing attack. If Charles Scott and company have a good deal of success come Saturday, it will legitimately come as a bit of a surprise.

The real key for the Alabama defense will be containing big plays in the passing game. For lack of a better way of putting it, the skill position players for LSU are unreal good, and they will stretch us to the absolute maximum this weekend. Our defensive backfield, collectively, will have to play the game of their lives this weekend, and to make matters even more worrisome we will also have to make sure that Russell Shepard or Trindon Holliday also don't beat us with a long run out of the backfield. Given the way we have struggled offensively the past several weeks, even giving up only one or two really long plays can easily be the difference between victory and defeat, and unless the offense improve, our defense has effectively zero margin of error.

Going a long way towards preventing those big plays to the skill position players will be effectively rushing the passer. Jefferson isn't a world-beater at quarterback, but his receivers sure as hell are, and he has the arm to make all of the throws. If Jefferson consistently has time to throw the football, we're in big trouble defensively. The LSU skill position players are simply too good to expect any defensive backfield to keep covered for any real length of time.

Putting It All Together

All in all, these two teams match up closely. If the Alabama offense were producing like it did earlier in the year, the Tide could be reasonably expected to win this game with relative ease, but with our offensive struggles of the past month and no definite sign of improvement, this game figures to be a close one that goes right down to the wire. Unless we can significantly improve offensively, the LSU defense is good enough to keep our offensive attack at bay, and while the LSU offense probably won't score a lot of points against our defense, they clearly have another skill position talent on the outside to make a few big plays to squeak out a close victory in a low-scoring game

And do look for this game to be a close, low-scoring game, no two ways about that. Neither team looks to score that many points, and expect the coaching staffs of the respective teams to play accordingly. LSU almost lost to the Tide in 2007 when they chose to kick to Javier Arenas late, and their loss last year was fueled by a slew of costly turnovers. Expect Les Miles and company to avoid both this weekend with a struggling Alabama offense. LSU will kick the football away from Arenas, and play safe on offense so that -- even if they don't score a lot of points in their own right -- they won't take the risks that could result in several costly turnovers. We're struggling greatly on the offensive side of the ball, and when facing a team of that nature you make sure that you do not allow cheap points. Expect LSU to force the Tide's offense to consistently move the ball 60+ yards to get points.

For Alabama, the path to victory is clearly in the trenches. We hold a fairly significant advantage in both match-ups at the line of scrimmage, and there is where we must win this football game. We must stop the run defensively and rush Jefferson, and offensively establish the running game and make like easy for McElroy and the Alabama passing attack. If we can do that, we win this football game. On the other hand, if LSU can fight us to an effective draw in the trenches, then this game will be decided by the skill position players, and that's a losing proposition for us. That's not to say we absolutely cannot win a game of that nature, but LSU does have more raw talent at the skill positions than we do, and that is a game that will clearly favor the Bayou Bengals. Again, our path to victory lies in the trenches. We have to dominate this game at the line of scrimmage. Period.

One way or the other, look for this to be an absolutely brutal game. The stakes are extremely high for both LSU and Alabama, and their respective players will perform accordingly. Les Miles, regardless of whether or not it is fair, will forever be judged relative to Nick Saban, something that is clearly not lost on Miles or his team. This is their biggest game of the year, and clearly the biggest game of the year for their fan base as well. Truth be told, they have been preparing for this game for two weeks now. Making matters more interesting, this game determines the SEC West, LSU is still technically alive in the national championship race, and they are clearly looking to make a definitive showing that they are still at their 2003-2007 form. On the other sideline, Alabama has been staring this one down for two weeks. We control our own destiny in the national championship race, and we know full well that this is now effectively a one-game season. If we want to get to where we want to go, we all realize that we must directly go through LSU. And, also, don't think for one second that it is lost on our team that they need to win this game in the trenches. Expect these two teams to line up and wage absolute war. There will be blood.

Hope for the best.

Where Does Les Miles Stand?

Richard Pittman — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 20:56:51 -0000

More photos » by Butch Dill - AP

What is this man's future? (AP Photo/ Butch Dill)

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Let's get one thing out of the way first. I have never seen a coach criticized as much without losing a game as Les Miles has been criticized this season. Let me quote part of a message that appeared on a prominent LSU website yesterday:

With the press and fans on Miles like they are at this point in the season, there is no way he can come back. There is nothing he can do IMO to win back the needed support.

It is just gotten to an unacceptable level. Media allies have turned and will not go down with him.

It's a harsh and dismal assessment. We see this sort of thing a lot on message boards, but this one is different. This is not coming from a yahoo, but rather from one of the more respected posters around. One who, honestly, I would consider to be an asset to any website he frequents.

This particular poster goes on to specifically criticize Miles for allegedly not always playing the best players, instead opting to reward seniority. In particular, he is critical of the offensive line personnel and the infrequency of Russell Shepard's appearances on the field.

I don't agree with his assessment, especially the "there is no way he can come back" conclusion. There's a very easy way for Miles to re-earn the esteem of LSU fans. Just win. If LSU wins next week against Georgia, ugly or pretty, personnel changes or no personnel changes, blowout or tight win, pure luck or inevitability, the troubles of the previous 4 weeks will be virtually forgotten. At least for one week, and probably until the Auburn game.

Before this season, I would have said that winning cures a lot of ills. And while that hasn't exactly been true this season so far, we always looked at the Georgia game as one of those season markers. It's a game we would have cautiously said before the season was a 50-50 game (at best). After four Saturdays, I see no reason to change that assessment.

This is not to say that Les Miles is above criticism until he loses. Far from it. In fact, there are numerous criticisms that I have. I agree with the above poster who says that it appears Miles favors seniority over talent. 2006's heavy reliance on an apparently completely washed-up Justin Vincent was Exhibit A. Last year's continued reliance on Danny McCray as a nickel back was Exhibit B.

I will also criticize some of Miles' decisions in recruiting. We had Frank Alexander in our back yard and let him go without ever seriously recruiting him. Now he's a highly regarded starting defensive end for Oklahoma, and we're struggling to get consistent production from the position except for Rahim Alem. And it's not like he was a late bloomer. OKLAHOMA wanted him. He refused to seriously recruit Dez Bryant, and let Darrington Sentimore go to Alabama almost without a fight. Bryant's an All-American, and while the jury is still out on Sentimore, LSU is facing a depth crisis at defensive tackle after this season and there appears to be no immediate help coming in the 2010 class. The defensive tackle situation has been exacerbated by recruiting a glut of offensive linemen and moving defensive tackles to the other side of the line to make their numbers even bigger.

The 2006 class is its own subject. Not a single offensive lineman from that class ever played a snap for LSU. The decision (or perhaps simply the eventuality) not to sign a quarterback to hedge our bets with Ryan Perrilloux arguably destroyed the 2008 season (along with the decision to promote from within to the vacated defensive coordinator job). The wide receiver corps from that recruiting class (Chris Mitchell, Jared Mitchell, and Ricky Dixon) is devoid of impact players. The linebackers appear to only now be emerging as good players.

I'm also not pleased that he couldn't reel in a good player like Janzen Jackson. That loss will hurt bad, as Jackson is on his way to being an impact player for Tennessee in the future. I will give him a pass for the McKnight situation, because it appears that McKnight was dead set on leaving the state from the beginning, and was only giving us lip service.

As for the specific suggestion that Miles is leaving one or more of his best 5 offensive linemen on the bench, I have no idea, but the experiences we've had with Justin Vincent and Danny McCray certainly lead us to believe it's possible. As an aside, it appears that now that McCray's role has changed, he's doing quite well, but that doesn't change the fact that he was ill-suited for his previous role.

Les Miles' tenure at LSU has not been above criticism, but again, football is about winning, and except for last year, Miles has done that with an admirable frequency. And so far this year he continues to win games. And everyone seems to forget Les's outstanding coaching job in 2005, in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and a devastating pre-season injury to our best running back. We also tend to forget that Miles is only two seasons removed from winning a national championship. I don't care whose recruits you're playing with. You can't win the national championship if you can't coach, even if you have superior talent (which is debatable).

In short, I think there's something to the criticism Miles is receiving. It's not all false. It's just a little overwrought under the circumstances. Miles has made mistakes, and the problems this team is facing this year won't go away on their own, but they also haven't cost us anything yet. Nothing is irretrievable yet, but things must be retrieved.

I'm a pragmatist at heart, and when something doesn't work I think the best thing to do is to try something, and if that doesn't work try something else. Whatever you do, don't let a problem sit around festering without trying to do something about it. It's better to try something and be wrong than to try nothing. Heck at least you tried.

So let's see what happens in the next 7 days before we start really speculating about Miles' future.

From The Bayou: Mississippi State v. LSU Q & A

jeremyflint — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:28:47 -0000

Leading up to this weekend's game against LSU, I sent some questions over to fellow SBNation-ites And The Valley Shook to get their take on the matchup this weekend and find out a little bit about where the LSU program stands as it rolls in to Starkville.

If you want to see what I had to say to them, check out my answers to their questions.

Question 1. Even though LSU is 3-0, some still seem unsatisfied with where the program is this year. Can you talk more about the expectations of the team coming into this season and how those are playing out?

This is the conversation among Tiger fans right now. Going into the year, the stated expectation was getting back to 10 wins and contend for the SEC title. But after three wins to open the season, all of which by fairly comfortable margins but none by blowout, the expectation seems to have shifted to "blow out everyone on the schedule." Frankly, I don’t get it because the squeakiest wheels in the fanbase about this team not meeting expectations are the same people who predicted LSU wouldn’t win 8 games this season. Les Miles suffers from the handicap that he is not, and never will be, Nick Saban.

I’ve stated earlier that LSU is past the point where it cares about moral victories, so I will do them the common courtesy of not caring about "moral losses". But I think I’m in the minority. We want blowouts, and those aren’t happening. The big disappointment has been that LSU’s offensive line has been mediocre at best and there has been an almost complete absence of big plays. And those are real concerns, especially if LSU wants to beat Florida and Bama. Nothing against MSU, but we’ve shown we can beat teams of MSU’s quality without big plays.

Question 2. The defense seemed to struggle against Washington in the season opener, but have had no problems with Vandy and LLU. Is the defense still trying to find its swagger or was the first game more a result of travel than anything?

Let’s not forget Jake Locker is really, really good. Also, this defense seems to take its collective breath in the fourth quarter. Against UW, the defense allowed 125 yards and 10 points in the fourth quarter, 81 of those yards on a meaningless 10 play drive in the final two minutes. Against Vandy, the defense closed the game by allowing an 8-play, 22-yard drive. And against ULL, the defense allowed two 8-play drives for a total of 74 yards and 9:47 in time of possession. Those hurt the numbers a bit, as this defense seems to play to the score. But if you’re trying to "get your swagger back", you probably shouldn’t take the last drive off once the game is out of reach. Going back to your first question, this team seems blissfully unconcerned with making statements.

I also think this defense has not yet pinned its ears back and attacked a quarterback because we have faced some mobile QB’s, and Chavis has stressed containment over pressure. Richard and I have disagreed over the play of the defensive line (I’m far more negative), but I am curious how the team will attack a pocket passer.

Question 3. Aside from a little bit of the Washington game, I haven't really seen LSU play that much. Give me a run down of the big playmakers to watch for on both sides of the ball.

Patrick Peterson. He’s already a lockdown corner as a sophomore. Vandy and ULL simply refused to throw at him. Do so at your own peril. He’s one of those five star recruits who has immediately lived up to all of the hype (actually, LSU can field a defensive backfield of four five-star recruits, three already start). Rahim Alem was a sack machine last year and he’s kept up the pace already.

On offense, Miles is stressing the run and there has been a disturbing lack of big plays. For example, the longest play against ULL was 25 yards, and LSU only had two 20+ yard plays. Expect a steady diet of short passes and runs by Scott and Williams. But if you need to be afraid of a playmaker, I’d worry about Terrance Toliver. He’s shown the ability to beat his man after the catch and make big plays. Of course, he also drops a lot of passes. Nobody’s perfect. Then there’s that Lafell guy, who will likely go in the first round of the draft. If you want to be drunk by halftime, take a shot every time the announcers gush over Holliday’s explosiveness.

Question 4. Tell me a little bit about Jordan Jefferson, the new QB in Baton Rouge. Is he playing up to expectations or are Tiger fans missing Ryan Perrilloux right now?

No one will say it, but we miss Perrilloux. Not as much as last year, but LSU would be a national title contender this season with a senior QB of Perrilloux’s talent. But that’s water under the bridge and we don’t spend a lot of time dwelling on it. I even wish the guy well. It was the right decision to kick him off the team and that’s what we say want our coaches to do, but we really don’t. Fans want wins.

Jefferson has started five games in his career, and he is 4-1 as a starter. He makes good decisions in the pocket, he’s a terrific runner, and he has a strong arm. Those are the positives. The bad news is that his deep ball is often erratic, the coaching staff has made a choice to protect his psyche and he does not throw the ball over the middle of the field, and the guy will not slide. He takes one solid shot every game in the open field. All in all, I’m pleased with his development and he’s shown signs of being a very good quarterback, but he’s not quite there now. I’d give him a B so far, but he’s not there to carry the team. His receivers are so good, they can make Jefferson look good.

Question 5. As I prepare to charge the field and tear down the goal post, burst my bubble and give me your prediction for the outcome of this game.

History won’t be wearing a jersey, but let’s review the recent history. In the last 18 years, MSU has beaten LSU once. And that was on a controversial call. LSU, for some reason, has owned State even when our fortunes were reversed. It’s not a huge factor, but I do think it’s in the back of the player’s minds: we can’t beat these guys. I’ve been to Starkville, and you can just feel the crowd waiting for something bad to happen. It’s palpable.

More importantly, LSU has more talent than MSU. MSU also has a fairly conservative run-first offense that plays into our defense’s hands. LSU has been pretty sluggish over the first three weeks and I see no reason for that to change. Both teams will grind it out, but State simply doesn’t have the playmakers yet to hold on in the second half. LSU won’t light up the scoreboard, but they will wear State down. We hate making predictions at ATVS because nothing is certain in sports, but I’ll take a stab at as a visitor. Playing at home and in the early morning means that MSU can catch LSU napping both figuratively and literally. But that’s not likely. MSU is getting there, but you aren’t there yet. Random prediction: LSU 20, MSU 10.

A Look Back at the 2007 SEC Championship Game and What It Means to Us Now

Richard Pittman — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 12:46:43 -0000

This weekend, in my boredom and in my thirst for college football of any kind, I ended up watching the 2007 SEC Championship Game again. It always amazes me how quickly my football memory will fade. In less than 2 years, I remembered virtually nothing about this game except for Jonathan Zenon's interception returned for a touchdown. To illustrate how bad my memory of football glories past can be, not only did I forget that Ryan Perrilloux cut his finger late in the game, I actually forgot that Ryan Perrilloux was our starter in this game.

I was struck, in watching this game with the memories of the 2008 season still in my mind, of how much more effective our offense was in this game than it was in 2008. We completely dominated the game. We outgained Tennessee by 464 yards to 343. For some reason, it did not translate to points on the board, as we only scored 13 offensive points, but our offense hummed for most of this game, even with a backup quarterback in the game.

But what really struck me is that our offensive coaching staff adjusted to having a backup QB in the game. Until Perrilloux got comfortable, they protected him by not asking him to do anything really complicated. He ran a lot of draws early, and some easy dump-off passes. As he got more and more into the game, they asked him to do more and more things. It was effective (in all but putting points on the board). Perrilloux threw an interception that really wasn't his fault, and otherwise played very well.

What's striking about this is that we were unable to set up a safe offense for an uncomfortable QB in 2008. One of the big complaints people had about the offense last year was that we never adjusted to Lee's struggles. No matter how many interceptions he threw, we kept asking him to throw and throw and throw. Why is that? We showed we could do it in 2007. Why didn't we do it in 2008? I have a few possible answers to the question of why we couldn't do for Jarrett Lee in 2008 what we did for Ryan Perrilloux, and other thoughts, after the jump:

On the one hand, the offense hummed with Perrilloux in the game, piling up yards, but then again we didn't score much. Drives got yards, but then stalled. It is possible that the conservative approach led to this.
Perrilloux was a runner, while Lee was not. Gary Crowton never had the option of protecting Lee from mistakes by running QB draws or options. Lee does not have the mobility at this point in his career to run them. Lee's inability to run the ball effectively is actually something of a surprise to me. In high school, Lee was reasonably mobile. He was not a "dual threat" or "running quarterback", but he could move his feet and escape pressure to a competent degree. This has not been true of his college career so far. When we finally had to turn to Jordan Jefferson, we ran draw after draw, probably to a excessive degree.
While we had a good running game last year, I don't think we had a running game that could be effective without a changeup passing game. Charles Scott was ineffective against Ole Miss and Arkansas, and generally wore down as the year went on. With Keiland Williams having a rough start to the season, and Richard Murphy never quite getting untracked, we were forced to lean heavily on Charles Scott. It is likely that had we leaned even more heavily on him, he would have just worn down faster.
Screens were actually Lee's least competent throw last year. For whatever reason, and I don't know if we will ever quite be able to explain it, Lee struggled terribly with screen passes. Famously, the bad interception against Auburn came on a screen pass, but there were other bad moments on screens. One of my indelible memories from 2008 will be Lee throwing screen after screen into the ground because he didn't think he could get the ball to the receiver. It's hard to play it safe when your quarterback inexplicably struggles the most with the safe throws. He did much better when going to receivers down the field and outside of the hashes.
We sure would have been a lot better with Perrilloux at the helm in 2008. Perrilloux would have joined the small number of really good QBs in the conference and we would have won more games. He had a strong arm and was mobile, and despite his off-the-field brain cramps he seemed to have a pretty good head for the game when he was on the field. Yes, we still would have had a putrid pass defense, and in fact that putrescence may have been disguised by a good quarterback, meaning we might still be burdened by it to this day, but it sure would have been nice to pick up another couple wins in 2008.
Keiland Williams had a disastrous run in which the blocking collapsed and the defense converged on Keiland for a substantial loss, but instead of just moving forward as far as possible and taking the 4 or 5 yard loss, he tried to reverse the field and ended up taking an even bigger loss, which effectively killed that particular drive. In retrospect, we may be able to trace Keiland Williams struggles in 2008 to this play. Keiland was actually doing very well in the game. He had broken off a 27 yard run and a 12 yard run. If you take out the 14 yard loss, he ran 4 times for 48 yards. He got hurt on the play and didn't play again on the night. Then last year he ran timidly and ineffectively at the start of the season, earning the ire of fans. He played a lot better towards the end of the year though, and this gives me hope that he will have a better 2009.
Richard Murphy looked more comfortable on the field in this game than he did at any time in 2008.
With good personnel on the field, Gary Crowton had a lot of success when he dialed up a creative play. Crowton's offense did not have a lot of success last year, but if Jefferson can run and pass effectively, and with quality skill position players everywhere else and hopefully a good offensive line, our offense could be extremely dangerous in 2009.

ATVSQBPI: Past is Prologue

Richard Pittman — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 09:30:14 -0000

Former Kentucky quarterback Andre Woodson put on his old jersey and celebrated his pretty good ATVSQBPI from 2007.

You wanted more information about the And The Valley Shook Quarterback Productivity Index, and I am here to give it to you. I have the data going back three years in the SEC. The first year can be found here, and we will reproduce it for this post.

Again, reminding you that the formula is as follows:

ATVSQBPI = (yards passing + yards rushing - yards lost by sack + 20*Number of Touchdowns - 30*Number of Interceptions)/(Number of pass attempts + rush attempts).

The explanation for why we use this particular formula is found here, but realize we are not using the complete formula because First Down stats are not quite as readily available, and it should pretty much wash out anyway. Plus, we've all gotten used to the scale this particular metric gives us.

Would you like to see 2006 and 2007? How about after the jump?

2008:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	8.73
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	8.49
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss	7.84
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.87
Casey Dick, Arkansas	5.68
Jarrett Lee, LSU	5.56
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.12
Jordan Jefferson, LSU	5.11
Nick Stephens, Tennessee	5.10
Kodi Burns, Auburn	5.02
Chris Nickson, Vandy	5.01
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina	4.95
Tyson Lee, Mississippi State	4.86
Mike Hartline, Kentucky	4.77
Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee	4.34
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	4.03
Chris Todd, Auburn	4.02
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	2.85

Alright, we've been through those numbers once before. Let's take a look at 2007:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	9.11
Ryan Perrilloux, LSU	8.20
Erik Ainge, Tennessee	7.12
Andre Woodson, Kentucky	6.89
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	6.78
Casey Dick, Arkansas	6.15
Matt Flynn, LSU	6.08
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina	5.81
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.69
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.62
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	5.16
Seth Adams, Ole Miss	5.03
Brandon Cox, Auburn	5.00
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	4.73

What are my take-away messages from this?:

Numbers were generally better in 2007 than they were in 2008.
Wesley Carroll was the worst starting QB in the SEC in both 2008 and 2007.
Tebow was a little better in his Heisman year than in his junior year. Or at least, he was a little more productive.
You really can win with average QB play, if you consider that LSU won the national championship with middle of the pack quarterback play in 2007, while Auburn was a pretty decent team with one of the least effective QBs in the conference. It sure makes it easier, though, if you're really good.
Just look at Ryan Perrilloux. That's what we didn't have in 2008. Well, that and a defense.
Andre Woodson was held back by his awful rushing numbers (not shown).

Let's move on to 2006, in which I lift the numbers straight from my old website:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Jamarcus Russell, LSU	9.16
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina	8.26
Erik Ainge, Tennessee	8.07
Andre Woodson, Kentucky	7.79
Chris Leak, Florida	7.02
Syvelle Newton, South Carolina	7.00
Casey Dick, Arkansas	6.99
Chris Nickson, Vandy	6.55
Brandon Cox, Auburn	6.37
John Parker Wilson, Bama	6.14
Omarr Conner, Mississippi State	6.13
Michael Henig, Mississippi State	5.82
Matthew Stafford, UGA	5.78
Mitch Mustain, Arkansas	5.68
Brent Schaeffer, Ole Miss	4.27

What are my take-home messages from 2006?:

Jamarcus Russell had the best ATVSQBPI of any quarterback between the years 2006 and 2008.
But on the other hand, numbers in general declined steadily in those years. Just look at John Parker Wilson. His ATVSQBPI actually fell each year he was a starter, but his ranking increased. Some of the worst QBs in the league in 2006 would have been pretty average in 2008 with the same production. Look at where Omarr Conner and Michael Henig would have ranked in 2008? Does this mean that Michael Henig was as good a quarterback in 2006 as John Parker Wilson was in 2008? Heck no. The steady decline of the mean from year to year, and the reduction in production of John Parker Wilson as he went from sophomore to senior, suggest the reduction is due mostly to better defenses.
Look at the steady progression of Matthew Stafford.
What the heck happened to Blake Mitchell?

If you have any additional thoughts, I welcome you sharing them.

FTRS Roundtable: September's Schedule

Winfield Featherston — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 16:52:35 -0000

Holy Crap! The prodigal son of From The Rumble Seat has returned! If you though Dane died, no don't worry, he only came very near death. But he is back so look for him to carry his weight around here a little more.

With the season quickly approaching, Dane, Bird and I will be looking at the football schedule month-by-month and giving our quick initial thoughts on each game.

SEPTEMBER

September 5^th: vs. Jacksonville State

Highlights: Cupcake game

Winfield: What scares me most about Jax. State is me messing up my first ride out with the Ramblin’ Reck. Nah, just kidding. It’s actually someone getting hurt and throwing our tempo off the railroad tracks. I expect this game to be quick, easy and dirty so I can (hopefully) find a ticket to the Dome for VPI vs. Alabama, and a weekend of complete football and blogging debauchery thanks to the guys who write for Gobbler Country, College Game Balls, and Beer Control Offense.

Dane: TRAP GAME!!! Not really. This game is going to remind us why we like watching the spread option offense (who doesn't love watching Dwyer bust through the line and take it to the house?), and will also remind us why Morgan Burnett is amazing after he gets two picks. I'm calling it.

Bird: You can't really mention Jax State without mentioning Ryan Perrilloux. And of course the guy managed to get suspended for the GT and FSU games... Way to be a team leader, Ryan. My worries are similar to Winfield's in that I don't want any key players injured in a jobber game but you don't play football for fear of possibly getting injured. You play to injure other people...

September 10^th: vs. Clemson

Highlights: CJ Spiller vs. Jonathan Dwyer. National TV coverage on ESPN, ERIN ANDREWS!

Winfield: Dabo is back in the spotlight as it becomes his first main game of the season. Will the Atlanta crowd and atmosphere bring him down? I say no, but the Jackets are gonna be too powerful for the Tigers. Thanks to Orson on EDSBS Live for mentioning the possibility of the "Whitest QB name matchup" with Jaybo Shaw vs. Willy Korn. Plus, we are badass on Thursday nights at home.

Dane: I'm not expecting a replay of last year's Miami game here, but I am not expecting too much difficulty. The guys at Block C seem pretty sure that this is Clemson's yearly embarrassment waiting to happen. The most fun part of this game? Laughing at Clemson fans after the game as they realize who the best running back in the league is.
Bird: Trap game? I don't think so. I think Clemson's loss of Cullen Harper is going to kill them in Dabo's first full season. Willie Korn/freshman QB are not gonna do much at Tech on a loud Thursday night. This game shouldn't be close even though history tells us otherwise.

September 17: @ Miami

Highlights: Back-to-Back Thursday night games on ESPN, ERIN ANDREWS, Roadtrip Glory

Winfield: The Yellow Jackets have beaten Miami four years in a row. Who would have thought that any team would be able to say that about the Hurricanes? Miami has athletes and with the combination of back-to-back Thursday night games, things seem to point to the likely possibility that it’s Miami’s turn to take this game.

Dane: Ugh, nervous. I don't like this game at all. In the greatest addition by subtraction in football since Vick left the Falcons, Pat Nix will no longer be handing our defense the game. Yes, everything about this Miami team is inexperienced, but Harris and the rest are going to step up sometime, and I'm worried this will be it.

Bird: I think Miami is our first possible loss but honestly their defensive coordinator was not prepared for us last year and I don't think they'll be prepared this year either. They're focused so much on the FSU opener that GT's triple option is probably getting very little PT in summer practices. Chalk up another W for the Yellow Jackets.

September 26: vs. UNC

Highlights: The Jackets seek revenge against the Tarheels from one of the more sloppy games of 2008.

Winfield: Last year, this game was one of our sloppiest. And since his arrival in Chapel Hill in 2007, Butch Davis has been a prickly thorn in our side. This game makes me nervous because the Tarheels are a team that I just straight up have no idea what to expect from them. However, I think the Jackets take this one partially due to our home field and CPJ won't let us lose to them again.

Dane: CPJ is going to snap Davis's proverbial wiener off like a panda breaking bamboo. When it comes down to it, most of the Tarheel's opponents outplayed them last year, but managed to blow it by playing like a bunch of dumbasses. The Heels stop getting away with football robbery and we don't hand them the game. This match is going to be the most obvious domination of all of our ACC games... well, except for Duke.

Bird: This is our toughest game in September by far. Best QB in the first four games. Best defense. Best opposing coaching staff. We know because we saw it last year. If this is a noon game and the Dodd is not rockin', then I think we lose.

September Thoughts:

Winfield: A great possibility for the Jackets to sweep through September but we will probably end up 3-1. For some reason, Miami makes me nervous. Am I scared of simply the name "Miami"?4-0 is a possibility but 3-1 looks looming. Hurry up CFB! Get here!

Dane: I'm scared to lose to Miami, but that's probably because I want to win that game more than any other one on our schedule (except, of course, for uga). We have beaten Miami every year I've been a Jackets fan, so I want want want it. I don't buy into the UNC business - while I know stats aren't everything, they got away with some very fortunate wins last year (without the stats to back it up). I'll be upset at 3-1 but furious at 2-2. 4-0 is to be expected.

Bird: I see Tech being 4-0 and I see Tech being 2-2. The key will be motivating our players in front of complacent crowds. We got up for big games in rowdy stadiums but we came out flat against teams when there wasn't a real external motivator. We'll see. I think a lot of my doubts will be answered when I see GT line up against Clemson on September 10th - the real home opener.

Think we're crazy? Post it in the comments!

Monday Morning Tomahawks- 08.03.2009 Edition

FSUncensored — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 13:36:48 -0000

It was a busy weekend for the 'Noles. Let's have a look at the news coming out of Tallahassee.

Much recruiting news
FSU's defense is getting bigger. Is it big enough?
FSU's tight ends could be a big factor this season.
Much more, including some heavy analytics stuff.

As you probably know, Marcus Lattimore named his top five schools and FSU did not make the list. The stud runner from Byrnes HS (SC) is being negatively recruited and FSU does not have a real shot, it appears. FSU will move on and pursue other running backs. See the Big Recruiting Board for more: http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/3/3/778241/2010-recruiting-big-board

You might remember our piece on the relationship between front seven size and defensive performance. FSU was very small last year. They should be somewhat bigger this year.

FSU's McDaniel, McAllister have to be ready | tallahassee.com | Tallahassee Democrat
McDaniel is 6'0" 288lbs McAllister is 6'5" 262lbs

Seminoles perform well on strength and agility | tallahassee.com | Tallahassee Democrat
Kendrick Stewart up to 278lbs, from 265lbs.

FSU's Mincey makes big strides | tallahassee.com | Tallahassee Democrat
Mincey is up to 272lbs (from 256 last year) and is making huge strides in strength and conditioning.

Two things here. First, the 'Noles are still too small and will not reach the magic threshold of 1830lbs. Second, they are bigger this year and that's a step in the right direction.

Increase in playing time for Seminole tight ends? | tallahassee.com | Tallahassee Democrat
FSU will use more two-tight end sets this year because they don't have a fullback. Also, Jabarris Little has increased his work ethic, which he needed to do, going from 222lbs to 237.

A Look at 2008 Season Parity - From The Rumble Seat A look at the ACC's parity vs. the SEC. The ACC really is like the NFL.

Rivals.com College Football - Rivals.com 120 Countdown: No. 14 Ga. Tech Pretty solid.

Smart Football: More on evaluating the run game Read this. It is long and very good. Digest the links he cites.

Looking Ahead: The 2009 ACC Basketball Recruiting Classes (Part 1) - Tomahawk Nation
An In-Depth look at the 2009 ACC Basketball Recruiting Classes. Part 1 of a 2 part series from Tomahawk Nation.

Looking Ahead: The 2009 ACC Basketball Recruiting Classes (Part 2) - Tomahawk Nation Part 2 of Tomahawk Nation's evaluation of the 2009 ACC Basketball recruiting classes. Who were the winners and losers in this year's class?

Merrill Noel Switches to the Deacons - Tomahawk Nation
This isn't a big deal.

Chantrant.com interviews James Warren (Jamnolfin)- who has signed up over 100 boosters and plans to have 150 by the Miami game. Great job by Chantrant to snag his interview and spread the word.

Ryan Perrilloux is not suspended for the FSU game. Chantrant with another great get.

In my continuing effort to highlight great comments, this one comes from the Off-Season Discussion Thread:

I have a request for an article by people who are much more football-smart than I am
I'm sure there are those of you who watch highlights just as much as I do, and noted the different formations we ran much more of this past year.

I was wondering if someone could explain the advantages of these different packages and how they'd complement our personnel in certain situations.

Like these bunch formations.

It's a really large order, I'm sorry, but any consideration would be really, really cool. Thanks

by pillsburysoldier

And the response:

Nice question
So this is my personal feeling on the bunch formation and just what I found as a player and watching film. I hate the formation when it is used towards the boundary like in the picture.

1. If you look at the defense they have 8 guys 4 without there hand on the ground within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage, that means any one of them could be a blitz candidate making it a nightmare for the oline to pick up. If there is a blitz to the bunch side no chance for the tackle to get out to pick it up because the d end is lined up on his outside shoulder and his job would be to wash him down thus making it a two on one with the running back.

2. Now for the Db's part of it since we are assuming there is a blitz on that would leave the middle backer and the corner back to cover three, well be assured that the safety will be rolling down into coverage also. Since the bunch is to the short side of the field its less area for the guys to cover meaning you don't have to use as many guys in the zone.

3. Since it is a blitz the guys in coverage know that the ball is going to be coming out fast and they don't have to worry about the vertical routes to much since the qb and receiver wont have time to get into them.
Ok thats what I see to the strength of the formation.

4. What I see back side and its a MAJOR tell for me is that the corner is lined up in press coverage Normally if your on an island like that as a corner you give a little cushion so you dont get taken vertical, well if you know that a blitz is coming you press up in order to take away the hot route and anything that would be quick and underneath.

Now im going to pretend im the o coordinator. If I see this Defense im running the football to the weak side of the formation. You can run option even with a slow Qb or you can run power with zone blocking steps.

1. Take notice of the weak side tackle either play you run there is a natural double to the middle back for either the guard center or the guard tackle. Lets pretend that we are running power every offensive lineman is taking his first step with his left foot. Here we go the TE will step down and simply slow the End down, The guard and tackle to the strength of the formation will double the Dtackle to the back side backer. The center and the playside guard will double the Dtackle to the middle backer and the playside tackle will take the end wherever he wants to go if he wants to go down ride him and let the runing back cut off of that if he wants to go upfield run him right past the play. What you will end up with is a running back on a safety every running back coach in america says this make the first guy miss.

2. If you are going to run option even with a SLOW SLOW qb its still perfect, We are going to focus on the playside which will be the single receiver side. You are going to option the Dend which allows the tackle and the guard to double up to the mike, the center will be responsible for making the backside backer scrape all the way over the top of him the backside guard and tackles job is simple cut the backside tackle and end down. Again it will come down to either the Qb or the running back one on one with a safety coming down hill.

by 21nole24

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Four Star Quarterbacks, Success, Failure, and What Michigan Football can Expect out of Tate Forcier

Maize n Brew Dave — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 17:33:59 -0000

As a general rule, highly rated quarterback recruits are the crown jewel of any school's recruiting class. Sure you can bring in a #1 Linebacker or a #1 Offensive Tackle, but those guys don't score points and their faces aren't plastered all over ABC or CBS every fall Saturday. Offenses simply don't work without an able bodied/minded signal caller under center.

But high school kids rarely turn out to be the person we thought they'd be coming out of high school. While Dr. Saturday has pointed out on numerous occasions (link no longer available) that a 5* player is far more likely than a 4* or 3* player to make the NFL, for some reason a 5* is far more likely to get himself arrested than a 4* or 3* (from the 2005 class at least). You get your five star flame outs (Ryan Perrilloux) far more often than your #1DC's like Matt Stafford, and you're just as likely to be starting a three star quarterback that you recruited as "insurance" than your four/five star savior.

For Michigan, this is not welcome news. Since the departure of five star rated Chad Henne, Michigan has gone from five star rated Ryan Mallett to no star rated Nick Sheridan to four star rated Steven Threet, back to Sheridan, then to two star Justin Feagin, to Threet, to Sheridan, and now, finally, to four star rated Tate Forcier. Looking at the preceding list, it's easy to disillusioned by the rankings process. Mallett transferred, Threet transferred (again), Sheridan was basically useless, and Feagin is being switched to receiver. As a result, Michigan will be starting a first year quarterback for the second straight year.

Despite Michigan's string of bad luck under center last year, it has failed to temper the enthusiasm of the Wolverine faithful when talking about Tate Forcier's first snaps. While (thankfully) this enthusiasm hasn't gone all Beano Cook, it is palpable when you talk to a Michigan fan. And to his credit, Forcier has done something to stoke that fire. Four passing touchdowns and one running touchdown in your spring game, your first anything against college competition, will get people excited.

Oddly, in watching that video the first thing that jumps out at me is not, OMG Savior!, it's "our defense is going to be baaaaaaaaaaad." But I digress. Watching this video is incredibly reassuring for any Michigan fan who had to sit through or pour over bad video of last year's spring practice. Combined, IIRC, Threet and Sheridan combined for 6 turnovers and no touchdowns via the air in 2008. And that performance was turned in against what proved to be the worst Michigan defense in Michigan history. I'm just saying.

So it's kind of hard to truly judge what we can expect out of Forcier against live competition, you know, the kind that will actually try to tackle him. Last year's quarterback play set the bar very low. But, Forcier seems to have the unique abilities required to run Rodriguez system. Tate showed the ability to throw on the run. Go deep. Scramble out of a sack. Not spike himself. These are good things.

Last year Michigan quarterbacks combined to go an abysmal 165/338 for 1718 yards, 11TD/12INT and a miserable combined QB rating of 95.2. Nick Sheridan's numbers alone make you cringe, a QB rating of 81.1 and a 2/5 TD/INT ratio despite starting a handful of games. If you just threw up a little in your mouth, you're not alone. Say what you want about changing systems, these guys were not and are not good quarterbacks in any system with numbers like that. Last year Forcier's numbers look like a shiny beacon in comparison. 208/326 for 3424 yards, 23/15 TD/INT ratio, 783 yards rushing on 92 attempts, and 12 rushing TDs. But lets break this down a bit.

For context on the competition, Forcier's High School, Scripps Ranch, is a Division II South school in California. Scripps is in the middle tier high school division for California schools with enrollment between 2400 and 1100 kids. The bigger Division I schools have enrollment from 2400 and up [some almost reaching 5000 enrollment]. Scripps is one of the larger Division II schools with enrollment around 2100. So he definitely facing decent competition, he's just not facing a Long Beach Poly kind of talent pool (4600+ kids).

Now, onto the numbers. One thing that jumps out at me is the 2 to 1 TD/INT ratio in 2008. Forcier, if you look at his numbers, had his best season as a HS junior where he was 21/5 TD/INT. But that's two years ago, with different personnel. Last year in 12 games, Forcier had just three games without an INT, and threw 2 picks or more in five games. Tate's playoff numbers were a mixed bag, throwing for over 300 yards in one game, but tossing a combined 5 picks in both play off games he played in. The glass half empty kind of person can take that as Tate wilting under pressure.

But the reality is that's far from the case. Scripps was a good, but not great team last year going 8-4. Their second round bow-out from the DII playoffs was against 12-0-1 Oceanside, the defending state champs, who won their fifth consecutive Division II section title in 2008. Forcier scored both TDs in the loss for Scripps, and a look at the boxscore shows there's not a lot you can do when you give up 28 points in the 4th quarter. Looking at the results, you'll note a couple of games where Scripps gave up 40+ points, including 70(!) to the eventual state champs, Cathedral. FWIW, Forcier was 21/36 for 295 yards, 4TDs and 1INT in the Cathedral game.

What all this means is Michigan is getting a kid who has taken his lumps, knows what it's like to get planted, and has played well against higher levels of competition. Is he the Rich Rod savior we've been hoping for? Chances are we're not going to know for a while. After the jump you'll find the Rivals rankings for every quarterback receiving four stars or higher since 2005, and a few three stars of note. Of this group, over five years, you're only going to find five or six quarterbacks that jump off the page at you. Three of those page jumpers are: Tebow, Bradford, and McCoy. Surprisingly, Bradford and McCoy were three star recruits.

If it seems like things are a little off moving towards 2005, you're right. In '05 Rivals handed out only thirteen four star plus ratings to quarterbacks. In 2009, Rivals handed out twenty five four star plus ratings, nearly double the 2005 amount. In my opinion, this might have something to do with the precipitous drop in production from 4* plus players. When you're handing out high ratings like candy, eventually you degrade the overall effect of that rating. It also explains why I'm nervous about anointing a four star quarterback, even a good one, as a program savior or more modestly as an offensive savior.

So what do these numbers mean for Michigan and Tate? It means we should all cool our jets a tad. Given the number of four and five star flameouts over the last five years, a four star QB is statistically more likely to be a bust than a success. Further, regardless of pedigree, even the best of the best get hammered in year one. Everyone remembers the lumps Chad Henne took as a first year starter, the bad throws, the bailouts by Braylon. And Chad was one of the highest ranked QB recruits in the country at the time. Sam Bradford's been a starter since day one but he got beaten down fairly regularly too. What helped Braford, and what is a major question mark for Forcier, is Bradford's OU defense was AWESOME that year and Bradford often had the opportunity to fix things when he messed up.

Tate's in that middle ground between OMG SHIRTLESS and good, solid prospect. On the negative side, he's shorter than we'd like. He's got good, but not great arm strength. He's shown a propensity, at least at the High School level to throw some picks. On the positive, he has shown great escapability. Great instincts. Good decision making. Has a resume jam packed with awards and MVPS. And an arm that is more than capable of delivering the ball down field and into tight pockets mid field. But all this is conjecture before he plays a single game. So before we all start bringing offerings to his temple, let's allow the kid to show us what he can do in a real game environment.

But here's where the realistic fan in me comes out; it's really hard not to get excited about what he's shown so far. On the basis of his high school career, spring performance, and Rodriguez offense, 2,300 passing yards, 700 rushing yards, 15/9 TD/INT, 6 Rushing TD seems like a reasonable expectation. Juice Williams threw for 3,000 plus last year while running for 700 yards on a bad team. Having seen both players throw, I like Forcier considerably more than Williams as a passer. The rushing numbers will be comparable just because of the nature of the offense. Forcier's going to run the ball. It's a necessity in this offense. So he'll have every opportunity to gain rushing yards.

I may be underselling the passing a tad, but I don't know how well our receivers are going to play this year. They should be a solid group, but there were a lot of dropped and misplayed balls last year. If the receivers play better, I think Tate can get them the ball and my projection would go up from there.

Thoughts?

Here's the list of ranked quaterbacks from 2005 forward. Help me fill in the blanks on these guys if you can.

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2009

1Russell Shepard 5* LSU

2Tyrik Rollison 4* Auburn

3Eugene Smith 4* West Virginia

4Kevin Newsome 4* Penn State

5Tate Forcier 4* Michigan

6Cody Green 4* Nebraska

7Nathan Scheelhaase 4* Illinois

8Shavodrick Beaver 4* Tulsa

9Casey Pachall 4* TCU

10Jordan Reed 4* Florida

11Raymond Cotton 4* Ole Miss

Not included – 14 Denard Robinson 4* ATH - Michigan

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2009

1Matt Barkley 5* USC

2Garrett Gilbert 5* Texas

3Aaron Murray 4* Georgia

4Tajh Boyd 4* Clemson

5Bryn Renner 4* North Carolina

6Richard Brehaut 4* UCLA

7AJ McCarron 4* Alabama

8Tom Savage 4* Rutgers

9Andrew Maxwell 4* Michigan State

10Allan Bridgford 4* California

11Zach Mettenberger 4* Georgia

12Tyler Russell 4* Mississippi State

13Josh Nunes 4* Stanford

14Ryan Mossakowski 4* Kentucky

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2008

1Terrelle Pryor 5* OSU – You may have heard of him

2E.J. Manuel 4* Florida State

3MarQueis Gray 4* Minnesota - eligibility issues

4Robert Griffin 4* Baylor - Starter

5Matt Scott 4* Arizona

6Darron Thomas 4* Oregon - Bench

7Curt Phillips 4* Wisconsin

8B.J. Daniels 4* South Florida

9Kody Spano 3* Nebraska

10Jaybo Shaw 3* Georgia Tech - Included for awesome name

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2008

1Blaine Gabbert 5* Missouri - sorta starter

2Dayne Crist 5* Notre Dame - Bench

3Mike Glennon 4* N.C. State - starter

4Andrew Luck 4* Stanford

5Star Jackson 4* Alabama

6Landry Jones 4* Oklahoma

7Jacory Harris 4* Miami - Starter

8Jordan Jefferson 4* LSU

9Tyler Wilson 4* Arkansas

10Kyle Parker 4* Clemson

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2007

1Tyrod Taylor 5* VTech – Starter

2Cameron Newton 5* Florida

3Aaron Corp 4* Southern Cal - Starter

4Stephen Garcia 4* South Carolina - washout?

5Willy Korn 4* Clemson - Starter

6Keith Nichol 4* Oklahoma - Bench/transfer?

7Chris Forcier 4* UCLA - Washout/transfer

8Kodi Burns 4*Auburn

9Josh Nesbitt 4* Georgia Tech - starter

10Logan Gray 4* Georgia

11Kellen Kiilsgaard 4* Stanford

12Bradley Starks 4* West Virginia

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2007

1Jimmy Clausen 5* Notre Dame - Starter

2Ryan Mallett 5* Michigan – Transfer/Starter

3John Brantley 4* Florida

4Mike Paulus 4* North Carolina

5Peter Lalich 4*Virginia

6Pat Bostick 4*Pittsburgh - Bench

7Jarrett Lee 4* LSU - sorta starter

8Robert Marve 4* Miami-FL - washout/transfer

9Steven Threet 4* Georgia Tech – Sadly, washout/Transfer x2.

10BJ Coleman 4* Tennessee - nothing

Rivals.com: Dual-threat quarterbacks 2006

1Tim Tebow 5* Florida (Football Jesus)

2Demetrius Jones 4* Notre Dame Washout/Transfer – Now a linebacker at NIU

3Jevan Snead 4* Texas – Transfer/Starter at Ole Miss

4Jake Locker 4* Washington – Punching bag/Starter

5Jeremy Ricker 4* Maryland

6Austen Arnaud 4* Iowa State

7Garrett Green 4* Southern Cal - bench

8Sherrod Harris 4* Texas - bench

9Antonio Henton 4* Ohio State – Who?

11Rick Stanzi 3* Iowa – Starter/Manzi

14Adam Weber 3* Minnesota - Starter

15Nate Davis 3* Ball State - NFL

16Todd Reesing 3* Kansas – Marky M says Balla.

Rivals.com Pro-style quarterbacks 2006

1Matthew Stafford 5* Georgia 1DC

2Mitch Mustain 5* Arkansas Washout

3Isiah Williams 4* Illinois Starter

4Josh Freeman 4* Kansas State Starter/washout/NFL?

5Pat Devlin 4* Penn State washout/transfer

6Kevin Riley 4* California sorta starter

7Neil Caudle 4* Auburn bench

8Chris Smelley 4* South Carolina sorta starter/washout

9Zach Frazer 4* Notre Dame washout

10Tyler Lyon 3* Arizona Bench

11Greg McElroy 3* Alabama – Starter (sorta)

12Sam Bradford 3* Oklahoma (Heisman winner)

Rivals.com Pro-style quarterbacks 2005

1Mark Sanchez 5* Southern Cal - NFL

2Jonathan Crompton 4* Tennessee - sorta starter

3Harrison Beck 4* Nebraska

4Derek Shaw 4* Arizona State

5Willie Tuitama 4* Arizona - One Time Stater/washout

6Rob Schoenhoft 4* Ohio State - bench

7Joe Cox 4* Georgia - bench?

8Arkelon Hall 3* Washington St.

9Domenic Natale 3* Michigan State

10Sean Canfield 3* Oregon State

11Bill Stull 3* Pittsburgh - starter

12Evan Sharpley 3* Notre Dame - Graduated

14Dustin Sherer 3* Wisconsin - sorta starter

15Colt McCoy 3* Texas - Starter Heisman Candidate

Rivals.com: Dual-threat quarterbacks 2005

1Ryan Perrilloux 5* LSU - Washout of spectacular fashion

2Jake Christensen 4* Iowa - Washout

3Ike Whitaker 4* Virginia Tech - Washout

4Josh Portis 4* Florida - ?

5Kyle Reed 4* California - ?

6Chase Daniel 4* Missouri - NFL?

7Jimmy Johns 3* Alabama - Proveyor of Fine Powdered Products

10Zac Robinson 3* Oklahoma State - Starter

Only Human: The Perfectly Average Season No One Saw Coming

cocknfire — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 06:23:05 -0000

If anyone had doubts before the season about LSU, they kept it to themselves. Across the mainstream media, the blogosphere and college football fandom in general, there was one point of agreement about the Bayou Bengals: They would be good -- Top 10 good.

The AP placed LSU at No. 7 preseason. The Tigers were No. 6 in USA Today's poll. No. 7 -- with two first place votes! -- in the BlogPoll. By those standards, your humble correspondent's decision to place LSU tenth looks downright conservative. But, lest you find that a boast, read the words that accompanied that ranking.

The Bengals are one of those teams that you almost have to rank every year by dent of their talent. ... They can almost glide to nine wins, right? With the schedule they have -- maybe. ... the season ends with Tulane, Alabama, Mississippi and at Arkansas. More than one loss among those teams would be stunning.

So much for convential wisdom.

In fairness, the conventional wisdom might have been correct had it not been for the extreme unwisdom of a certain quarterback. Ladies and gentelmen, your signal-caller for the 2008 Jacksonville State Gamecocks.

This is almost as easy as reading Lane Kiffin's poker face.

To say Ryan Perrilloux was part of the problem at LSU in 2008 is to engage in an almost criminal level of understatement. It's a straight line from the dismissal of Ryan Perrilloux to LSU fans grasping their hair every time Jarrett Lee threw the ball into the air. "Well, crap. There's another six points we'll have to score."

Lee was not supposed to be thrown to the SEC defensive wolves so soon, if at all. His playing time in 2008 would come as LSU cruised by Troy or exacted its revenge against Arkansas. Not so much, and not so much.

It is perhaps a sign of the bothersome state of QB play in the SEC in 2008 that LSU was still a middling team under center. Of course, some of those numbers were propped up by the late-season emergence of Jordan Jefferson, who was reasonably efficient (even if the completion rate didn't show it) at Arkansas and solid if unspectacular against Georgia Tech (16-25, 142 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT).

Jefferson, whose starting prospects became the subject of a Facebook page, is now the favorite to hold onto the position in 2009. That's unfortunate for Jarrett Lee, who endured far too much as LSU's quarterback to be unceremoniously kicked to the curb. But that is how it sometimes happens in sports. Lee could, of course, still transfer, and some Louisiana sports writers have strongly hinted that doing so would be in his best interest.

But it's unfair to blame the collapse of 2008 on Lee. As subpar as he might have been passing the ball, LSU was even worse defending the pass: 11th in the SEC in yardage allowed, 8th in pass efficiency defense. The running numbers were mediocre, but why run the ball when you can throw it to such effect? Tim Tebow: 210 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs. (That said, the Gators also shredded the LSU run defense for 265 yards.) Matthew Stafford: 249 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs. (RB Knowshon Moreno contributed 163 yards rushing and a score.) Jevan Snead: 274 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs. The list goes on and nightmarishly on.

When Florida scored 51 against LSU, it marked just the fifth time the Bengals had allowed 50+ in SEC play since 1933. Two weeks later, they allowed half a hundred again, this time against Georgia. The season ended allowing 31 points in consecutive games to Troy, Mississippi and Arkansas.

Then, it stopped. LSU held Georgia Tech to a respectable 164 yards rushing (150 yards passing) in the bowl game triumph. Was it a one-game turnaround? Or the first, small step toward success by a relatively young football team? The answer will determine not whether LSU begins 2009 ranked, but whether it ends the season there.

Boulevard of Broken Dreams: Georgia and the Woes of 10-3

cocknfire — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 06:36:29 -0000

EDITOR'S NOTE: Over the next several days, I'll be doing season reviews for some of the teams about whom I still feel like there's something to be said. To a greater or lesser extent, I have in earlier posts wrapped up the seasons for Auburn, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt. There might also be some teams about whom I don't have much to say. Apologies in advance if one of those ends up being yours.

As I was thinking about what to write about Georgia's seesaw 10-3 campaign, I asked for a bit of advice. (And got some good insights from commenters to that FanPost and, of course, from the Mayor himself.) This was a little awkward for me; I generally like to collect my own thoughts, look at some numbers, and then put it out here on the blog for you, dear reader, to either enjoy or pick apart.

But this year's Georgia team truly baffles me. Sure, I'm right about some teams and wrong about others every year. The 4-8 prediction for Arkansas was pretty close; 9-3 was a bit off for LSU. I was down on Tennessee, though not down enough, while I whiffed on Mississippi.

But Georgia -- I completely missed Georgia. By no means was I alone in calling for the Dawgs to have a better season than they did. For every other team, though, I can tell you why I was wrong. For LSU, I was too certain that talent and coaching could overcome the loss of Ryan Perrilloux. For Mississippi, I underestimated Houston Nutt and Jevan Snead.

On Georgia, I've got nothing. Sure, the injury to Trinton Sturdivant was (in retrospect) a big loss for the offense. But Sturdivant didn't play defense. Nor did anyone else on the team, at least in the second half of the season. In its last five regular-season games, Georgia gave up 183 points. Only once in that stretch did Georgia allow fewer than 38 points -- and that was at Auburn.

Now, some Georgia fans might feel compelled to defend the Dawgs by pointing out that the Red and Black did go 10-3 this season. But those three losses were for the most part so ugly -- and some of the wins so unimpressive -- that the record doesn't truly reflect the team.

Only Arkansas and Western Kentucky, for example, would allow as many or more points against Alabama. Western Kentucky was also the only other FBS team to give up more than 27 points to Kentucky -- and the Hilltoppers are still transitioning to FBS.

The more effective of the two Georgia defenses?

Granted, the offense didn't reach its sky-high pre-season potential. Knowshon Moreno was 20th in the country in rushing, but 107.7 ypg isn't really Heisman material. And Matthew Stafford was a very good quarterback, but probably not as good as you think if your main source of information about him is Gary Danielson.

The defense, though, was what hurt this team the most in the three losses, and what made some of the wins far closer than they should have been. There was a reason many Georgia fans saw the Miami DC job as "a great fit" for Willie Martinez, and it had nothing to do with how happy Martinez would be in Coral Gables. These are the kinder Georgia fans; the less kind started petition drives.

For now, at least, Mark Richt has remained loyal to Martinez. But it is not a stretch to think that fan frustration with Martinez could end up putting Richt on the hot seat -- in some corners, it already has.

Before we get too ridiculous here, let me state unequivocally that I don't believe Richt will be fighting for his job next season. But with Moreno and Stafford both leaving for the NFL, you have to wonder how well the Dawgs can do this fall. And if Georgia disappoints for a third year out of four, you have to wonder if 2010 could be the decisive campaign for Richt. He is already the dean of SEC coaches, and the previous man to hold that honor, Phil Fulmer, proved over the last four years that such longevity can be almost as big a danger in terms of job security as it is an asset.

If those darker clouds begin gathering over Athens and the Dawgs continue their decline, this year will be seen as the beginning of the end of the Mark Richt Era.

Of course, Georgia could surprise to the upside in 2009 and make all this speculation seem myopic, in which case 2008 will be nothing more than a speed bump in an otherwise fine coaching career. And the smart money is on Richt to turn things around. He has always done best when his teams are counted out.

Then again, I've been wrong before.