SB Nation - Andrew Hatch

5 Keys To A Successful Season, Part 5: Quarterback Play

Richard Pittman — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 10:10:22 -0000

Photo by Kevin C. Cox of Getty Images

If you read the introductory paragraphs in yesterday's installment of this series, you saw us reference "the two biggest things that went wrong with the 2008 season." Yesterday, we covered the breakdowns in the secondary. Today, we go through the other obvious deficiency, the quarterback play.

I have previously defended Jarrett Lee's play, and I continue to do so to a point. Here is what I said to Team Speed Kills:

Alright, let me defend Jarrett Lee for a second. Lee was 5th in the SEC in yards per game, even though he split time early in the year. His completion percentage was within 3.1 percentage points of Jevan Snead's. His passing efficiency was 6th in the conference, and wasn't significantly worse than the 4th rated QB's. He made positive things happen on the field, unlike some QBs in the conference who were more or less empty uniforms (I'm looking at you, Mike Hartline). Yes, he had a very tough time with the interceptions, but he was a heck of a lot better of a quarterback than Jonathan Crompton, Kodi Burns, Mike Hartline, Chris Smelley or Chris Nickson. Things really got bad for him afterAndrew Hatch got hurt. Hatch took a lot of pressure off of Lee, and when Hatch got hurt, all of that pressure fell on Lee. At first, he was able to bounce back from mistakes, but eventually the mistakes just mounted and mounted and mounted and it weighed down on his psyche. I think Jarrett Lee could end up being a fine quarterback. He just has to get past the horrors of last year and get his swagger back.

There are some caveats I left out of that.

First, the "passer rating" is a woefully inadequate measure of a quarterback. In a previous blog, I reviewed in detail how the Passer Rating worked. I will summarize here. The passer rating is a measure of yards per attempt. The passer gets 11.9 bonus yards merely for completing a pass, 39.3 bonus yards for a touchdown pass, and a 23.8 yard penalty for an interception. The whole thing is then multiplied by 8.4 simply to disguise the fact that it's a yards/attempt statistic. They then do a little algebra to make it really confusing exactly what they're doing.

The result is, I suppose, kind of useful, but it's impossible to justify an 11.9 yard bonus merely for completing a pass, and it's equally difficult to justify a cumulative bonus of over 50 yards for a touchdown pass (12 for the completion and 39 for the touchdown) while penalizing an interception not even half as much. It could easily be made more useful simply by adjusting the bonuses and penalties to make more sense, and including the running element, which incidentally, I did with the 2006 numbers. I did it again with the first half of the 2007 season, but then I lost interest in it. And those numbers weren't that great because I couldn't input all the statistics I wanted (not having an easy time finding statistics for 1st down runs and completions, I was forced to do without).

You may hear more of this metric in the future, by the way.

OK, but what does this have to do with Jarrett Lee? Jarrett Lee had a pretty respectable passer rating, but his very poor touchdown-to-interception ratio was not sufficiently punished in the standard metric. Plus, his inability to scramble or run was not taken into account. I maintain that Jarrett Lee was better than Crompton, Burns, and others, but we shouldn't look to the passer rating to show it. He simply did more on the field. He put up yardage and points. His sparkling play in Auburn brought us from the brink in that game. In a year with supposedly horrible quarterback play, we had a receiver lead the league in receptions and touchdown receptions.

It's just hard to ignore those interceptions, in particular the ones returned for touchdowns. It's also hard to ignore how his body language went from good to middling to abysmal as the rough season and the bad press mounted. He may have brought us back from the brink against Auburn, but it was his terrible interception returned for a touchdown that put us on the brink in the first place.

Still, at this point, even if Jarrett Lee was still our starting quarterback, I would rank our QB situation at least 8th in the league at the start of the season, ahead of Tennessee's, Kentucky's, Auburn's, and probably Mississippi State's, and I'd think long and hard about whether or not to rate us higher than Vandy, and it would probably be a tossup with Bama at this point. We could potentially have a quarterback situation that was in the top half of the league at the start with Lee at the helm.

But right now the floor does not belong to Jarrett Lee. It belongs to Jordan Jefferson, who of course had an outstanding game against Georgia Tech in the Peach Bowl after a couple of middling performances against Ole Miss and Arkansas. Jefferson adds a running dimension that Jarrett Lee simply cannot bring to the table. He also seems to have that je ne sais quoi that Lee did not possess, at least not at the end of the year. That intangible thing that sportscasters and commentators sometimes call that "it factor". For what it's worth, I thought Lee had it too, at least at one point last season. I thought he had "moxie, or at least confidence," and I think he really did. It just wasn't an invincible confidence, and it was vinced.

Besides moxie and confidence, which Jordan Jefferson has, he also has a pretty darn good arm. It's not an elite Jamarcus Russell-like arm, but it's a very solid college arm. As of the end of last season, he was still trying to marshal that arm and hit the right receivers at the right time, but he didn't do badly for a true freshman who was supposed to redshirt. Here are some Jordan Jefferson highlights from the Peach Bowl:

The flip pass gets a lot of attention, and I think it shows that he has the derring-do to be a special quarterback. Not that I want him doing a whole lot of underhand passes, but you have to like that as a true freshman he did not panic when the play broke down, and he made something positive happen. He made a ton of progress between the end of the regular season and the start of the Peach Bowl, and he certainly has a long way to go still, but you have to be pleased that he made such a good progression in that time. There's no reason to believe he will stop progressing.

It would not surprise me at all to see LSU use a two-quarterback rotation, with true freshman Russell Shepard getting 5-or-so snaps per game as a change of pace game-breaking runner with the ability to throw the ball. As of right now, the coaches have been quiet about how they expect to use Shepard, but most observers expect him to be put on the field immediately in some capacity, perhaps as a receiver, perhaps as a punt returner, perhaps as a running quarterback. He is electric with the ball, and he's been in school since January.

We obviously need to improve the quarterback play to have success this year. Jarrett Lee was in a tough situation, and while he was not the worst QB in the conference, he was not good enough consistently enough to allow us to have the kind of success we want to have. Not all the blame goes on him. Our pass defense really was abysmal. Jarrett Lee had nothing to do with allowing Jevan Snead nearly 10 yards per attempt, and he had nothing to do with making Chris Todd and Tyson Lee look competent. This is just one of the areas that needs improving, but it is a big one.

2009 CFN LSU Preview, Part 1

Richard Pittman — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:46:09 -0000

Before we get into Pete Fiutak's LSU preview over at College Football News, let me make a few prefaces. Overview. Offense. Defense.

First, I really like Pete Fiutak. He's a very knowledgeable guy. He's forgotten more about college football than I'll ever know. The problem is that college football is just too big of a world for one person to be expert in all of it. No national reporter or national figure knows our team better than we do. The flip side is that Pete Fiutak knows a hell of a lot more about Eastern Michigan than I would ever want to know.

Secondly, despite all that, Pete Fiutak may have insights that I don't have. He may have some super-down-low sources within the team that feed him information that the ordinary local press does not get. I doubt that's strictly true, but it is entirely possible that some of the things he says that make me cast a sideways glance may be more true than I realize.

I don't think we should use Fiutak to learn more about our team, but it is nice to look at him and get an insight into what fans around the country may be thinking.

With the preliminaries out of the way, let's parse out what he says.

General Comments:

While this might not be the SEC's best team, it's good enough to have a puncher's chance against anyone in the league (more specifically, Florida in an SEC title game and on October 10th in Baton Rouge), and if you win the SEC title, you're in the discussion for the national championship.

But this year's team might need a break or three to move up the timetable. Remember, LSU needed a minor miracle just to get to the 2008 BCS Championship game, and this year's schedule is way too hard for anyone to get through alive. Even with a conference slate (with Georgia and Florida from the East, along with road trips to Alabama and Ole Miss) that would force most teams to make plans to hang out with their families for the holidays, there's reason to think this will be a bounceback year that should reestablish LSU among the elite.

So he doesn't think we're #1, but he thinks we could end up there if we get some breaks. I don't have a big problem with that. We have to face the fact that while Georgia is perceived to have lost their window of opportunity for now, and while Ole Miss may be getting too much love, and Alabama has to replace a lot of production at QB, OL, and Safety, the Florida Gators are loaded. Just plain loaded. And while we have talent and we have the ability to beat anyone, beating Florida is going to be a tall order if everyone arrives healthy for that game.

On the new defensive coaches:

The defensive front that struggled to get into the backfield should be far more aggressive with Chavis directing the way, and that should help a fast secondary that didn't get a whole bunch of help against the better passing teams.

...

What to watch for on defense: More attacking. It's not like the defense was awful last year, but it wasn't the high-flying disruptive machine it was in previous years. This year's D should make far more plays in the backfield, it'll come up with far more takeaways, and it'll start to look a little bit like the defense that now-Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini put together. The speed is there and the talent is solid across the board, and now the defense that gave up a not-that-bad 326 yards per game last year should be a brick wall.

The defense wore the LSU uniforms, and it had several players that were part of the team that won the national championship in 2007, but it didn't look like LSU. The pass rush was spotty, the secondary was a sieve, and there weren't nearly enough big plays all across the board. Welcome to 2009, and welcome to John Chavis, the former Tennessee defensive coordinator who's going to have this ultra-athletic group flying around.

...

Strength: The scheme. Play time is over. As if defensive coordinator John Chavis isn't going to whip this group into enough of a frenzy, there's Brick Haley, a former assistant for the Chicago Bears, who has the potential to make this group special. This year, the front four will get to pin its ears back and get into the backfield.

I would say this qualifies as "very complimentary" of the new guys, and by extension very critical of the old guys. I think this is right. Last year's team (and even the teams under Pelini) tried to outsmart and out-trick the other team with fancy formations and unpredictable schemes. We ended up just getting ourselves out of position and confusing our own players.

I believe this year's team will play much more aggressively than that.. While at this level of football, it take football smarts to succeed, 75% of playing defense is playing fast and getting after the football. I think this year's defense will emphasize that a lot more than last year's.

On Jordan Jefferson:

The quarterback play that was so lousy at times and was directly responsible for two losses should be far better now that Jordan Jefferson appears to be ready to be a leader and a playmaker, and not just a caretaker.

...

What to watch for on offense: Better quarterback play. Jarrett Lee tried his best, and was trying to get through his first season without collapsing after Andrew Hatch had injury issues. He collapsed. The 16 interceptions forced the coaching staff to adjust the gameplan on both sides of the ball to hide him, and then enough became enough. Lee was raw, but freshman Jordan Jefferson was really raw and extremely erratic. However, he showed signs of becoming a playmaker. This spring, Jefferson was far more consistent and far more accurate while top recruit Russell Shepard was solid. If LSU's quarterbacks were better last season, the team would've been 10-3 and would've beaten Alabama and Arkansas.

I am not quite sold that Jefferson's going to be a strength of this team. He is still very inexperienced, and while he had an excellent Peach Bowl performance and we can expect improvement, we simply must go into this season expecting Jefferson to make the kinds of mistakes that second-year quarterbacks make on a regular basis.

I would expect significantly improved QB play over last year's performance, however. Let's keep in mind though that it's not like Jarrett Lee was inept. We were in the middle of the pack of the SEC in passing yards, and actually moved down that list after Jefferson replaced Lee. We had a wide receiver lead the league in receptions and touchdown catches. Lee was able to crank out some yards through the air. He just made a lot of mistakes that led to turnovers and points going the other way as well.

I think this year we are not going to see as much passing yardage as we saw. I say that because I think we aren't going to pass as much as we did last year. I think some of those passes will be replaced by quarterback draws and/or "Wildcat" type plays.

The 6-4, 210-pound sophomore has a nice arm, but not an elite one, and he has good running skills, with 134 yards and a touchdown, but he wouldn't necessarily be considered dangerous. However, he has nice speed and was far more accurate this offseason than he ever was during last year. To say he stepped up his game is an understatement.

I think they're actually selling Jefferson a little short on the talent department. He was not heavily recruited nation-wide, but I think he probably would have been had he stayed healthy in his junior year of high school. When Jefferson came to the team, I said he had the best tools of anyone there. He has the best tools of any recent LSU quarterback other than Jamarcus Russell (if you count "head" as a tool, otherwise he is also behind Ryan Perrilloux). I think he has a higher upside than Matt Flynn had or Rohan Davey had. He has that much talent.

On A couple incoming freshmen:

Superstar recruit Russell Shepard will likely end up working at wide receiver early on, but he proved this spring that he was good enough to be used at quarterback, his real position. The 6-1, 179-pounder isn't exactly JaMarcus Russell size-wise, but he's a devastating runner and an accurate enough passer to not make a slew of big mistakes. If he's in, he's running and will be trying to get the short to midrange passing game going. He's not going to push the ball deep on a regular basis early on.

...

While super-recruit Russell Shepard is a quarterback, he's way too good a player to sit on the sidelines and watch Jordan Jefferson. The 6-1, 179-pound speedster can be used in a variety of way lining up under center as a change-of-pace runner, as a running back, or most likely, as a dangerous playmaker in three and four wide sets. He can do it all.

As good as recruit as Shepard was, Reuben Randle might have been better. Arguably the nation's top receiver prospect, the 6-3, 195-pound true freshman has all the tools and all the ability to be the next LSU first round NFL draft pick. Used as both a quarterback and a receiver in high school (no, he didn't throw to himself), he threw 20 touchdown passes and ran for 683 yards and 12 scores, and as a junior he caught 55 passes for 1,058 yards and 11 scores. It's all there with size, toughness, athleticism and deep speed to become the starter on the other side of LaFell or the No. 2 option on the X.

It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Shepard used extensively as a receiver, but it will probably more in the way of a Reggie Bush type receiver, in that he would not be asked to run a lot of routes. Instead, he would catch the ball at or near the line of scrimmage on screens or dump-offs and try to make something happen with his legs. The kid has simply never played receiver, and it's not as easy a position to learn as it sometimes looks. There is a lot of technique there, and Shepard would be way behind in learning it.

I think the Rueben Randle description is about accurate, though I would not be expecting Julio Jones-type or AJ Green-type numbers from his this year. As mentioned, I do not think that LSU will be passing as much next year as we did this year, and neither Green nor Jones had a 1st team All-SEC receiver running alongside him last year. Green had the most talent around him, but he also had an established throw-first QB with a cannon arm getting the ball out there. If Randle catches 30 passes, I would consider that a very pleasant surprise.

The team's top defensive recruit this year was Chris Davenport, a 6-4, 318-pound block of granite who was out for most of his senior hurt, but was still considered among the nation's top tackle prospects. Very big and very active, he was a man among boys in high school and has the body and strength to be a factor right away somewhere on the interior.

I'm not so sure. It's a little harder to break into the playing rotation on the lines than it is to break into it at the skill positions. Most freshman big men need to physically mature and work their bodies a lot to really be strong enough to be ready for SEC competition. Most are a little soft in the middle and lack the definition you like to see. Even if the upside is there, it usually takes a year or so to really start reaching it. Can anyone name the last true freshman to make an impact at LSU on either the offensive or defensive line. Hint: it hasn't happened while Les Miles has been the coach. The last one I remember was Marcus Spears, which was 8 years ago.

We'll continue with our thoughts on this in the next installment.

LSU Keeps Ciron Black, Charles Scott; Loses... Hatch?

Richard Pittman — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 12:30:08 -0000

I guess press conference means staying. Yesterday, LSU got a bit of a boost to its 2009 team with the announcements that left tackle Ciron Black would return to LSU for his senior year and running back Charles Scott would as well.

In an move I did not see coming, apparently Andrew Hatch has left the team and may be returning to Harvard. I am disappointed he is no longer a Tiger because, honestly, I thought there was a place for him on this team. He was a steadying influence for Lee and the team until he got hurt, and while I don't think he was ever going to win the starting job again, he could have carved out a nice little career in a Mickey Guidry-like role as a backup.

Good luck to you at Harvard and in the rest of your life's endeavours young man. I know you gave your all this past year, and I hope it was a fun ride for you.

Let us hope that the rumors that Jarrett Lee is leaving are false. We will be in a pickle without Lee and Hatch if Jefferson gets an injury.

But let us not dwell on the bad news. Let us dwell on the good.

Greatest LSU offensive lineman ever?

Ciron Black has started 40 games at left tackle for LSU. 40! He redshirted his first year and has started every game at left tackle that LSU has played since. He has a chance to break the record for most games started in Division 1A football history, currently held by former Oklahoma defensive back Derrick Strait. The record is 53. The LSU record is 52, held by Andrew Whitworth. If Black stays healthy and LSU makes it to a bowl game, Black will pass Whitworth and tie Strait. If LSU goes to the SECCG also, Black will surpass the NCAA Division 1A record for games started.

It's especially impressive that every single one of those starts will be at left tackle.

His return to the team solidifies the offensive line for 2009, and gives us a chance to groom a replacement from among the many young tackles on the team (Greg Shaw, Ernest McCoy, incoming freshman Stavion Lowe, and possibly one or more converts from the defensive line or tight end). LSU will still have to find replacements for guard Herman Johnson and center Brett Helms, but the majority of the line returns.

Charles Scott's return is also very significant. For about half the season, he was our only effective running back, as Keiland Williams struggled to get started and Richard Murphy struggled period. He slowed down at the end, probably because of an undisclosed injury, but still ran for over 1,100 yards on the season.

In his first two years at LSU, Scott was a threat as a receiver, particularly on middle screens. We never got that game going with him this year, probably because Jarrett Lee was particularly ineffective on screen passes. I'd like to see him get back into that type of play next year. He has really good vision as a runner, and that is very helpful in scooting his way through the second and third levels of a defense. Plus, at 240 pounds, he's kinda hard for the safeties to tackle.

I wonder if something will give in the depth at running back. Rumor has it that Keiland Williams may move on, either to the NFL or to a place where he can be a feature back for a year. Stevan Ridley looks ready to break out as a force running the ball, but seems to fill essentially the same role as Scott. Richard Murphy needs to figure out why his yards-per-carry dropped by about 1/3 from his freshman to his sophomore year. Then we have a couple freshman running backs coming in, both of whom look strong.

Scott will get first shot at it next year, of course.

And with Scott staying, LSU still has not had a player leave for the NFL after 3 years during Miles' tenure. It's really kind of an amazing stat. With all the talent we've had, we have not had a single player leave LSU for the NFL without staying at least 4 years since Marquis Hill, Michael Clayton, and Matt Mauck left after 2003.

An announcement on Brandon Lafell is apparently coming today.

Ole Miss 31 - LSU 13: The Quarterbacks

Richard Pittman — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 12:30:06 -0000

Jordan Jefferson played alright. He was 10 of 20 for 129 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Not a horrible stat line, particularly for a true freshman seeing his first extended playing time.

When Lee got hurt, I had visions of the true freshman starting a legendary tale of a young hero plucking Excalibur from the rock and leading his beleaguered troops to a stunning come from behind victory. It was not to be, of course, and truth be told it was an entirely unrealistic hope.

Jefferson did enough to warrant a closer look, though. And unless my eyes deceived me, I think Jarrett Lee is too badly hurt to even be considered for playing time in this next game, which will occur in short order.

Like with the defense, I think the quarterback position is an open competition in the Spring. There will be 3 quarterbacks on the roster with real game experience, and really any of the three could end up winning the job. Then there is Russell Shepard, the high school senior who upon committing to LSU this past Spring immediately behind a star-in-waiting among those of us who follow the recruiting trail heavily. He will arrive in time to participate in Spring drills following an enormous senior season of high school that is actually still going on.

Honestly, I do not expect Russell Shepard to start at quarterback at any time in the 2009 season, but it would not be a surprise at all if he was a contributor in some respect, either as a change-up quarterback or as a Percy Harvin-type player. His skills with the ball in his hands are amazing.

His arm skills are. . . debatable. The world is divided on whether he is a future college quarterback or not.

I know it's just internet rumors, but if what Bayou Bengal Blog says about Jarrett Leeis true, I am really worried about this kid:

I'm told that the pressure and the adversity this year have frayed Lee emotionally, so much so that at this point he goes to class, goes to practice and goes back to his room - and that's it. He even eats his meals in his room from what I understand.

This is bad.

It also illustrates the danger of playing a kid before he's ready. People always say, "You might as well play the youngsters to get them ready," but this highlights why that is not always the best thing. With a young player, you want to introduce him slowly to the game, putting him in circumstances to succeed.

With Lee, we played him because we needed to, and after his outstanding second half against Auburn, and especially after his second half against South Carolina, he has really had a difficult time, to the point where he is damaged and needs to be repaired. You can tell it from his body language on the sidelines without having to hear about where he eats his meals. This is what can happen when a young player is given responsibility too early, and there is no position in football with greater responsibility than quarterback.

Jarrett Lee has talent, but not superlative talent, and he has been thrust into a very difficult position well before he was ready. Jordan Jefferson, I think, has more physical talent, but has not really played much quarterback.

One thing to keep in mind about Jordan Jefferson is that not only is he a true freshman, but he didn't really play all that much quarterback in high school either. He was a starting quarterback at Destrehan in his junior and senior years (including a State championship his senior year), but his junior year was cut short by injuries and his high school system called for him to be in the shotgun almost every snap.

So he has really only played a year and a half of quarterback before getting to LSU, and here he has not had the luxury of sitting and learning except for the first half or so of the season. And here at LSU he is playing under center for really the first time since who knows when? Junior varsity? Middle School?

Then of course there is Andrew Hatch, who is much more appreciated in his absence than he ever was in his presence. Of course, Hatch does not have much of an arm, nor is he particularly speedy, but (at the risk of spewing a white-QB cliche) he is a pretty heady guy, at least when given a limited role. In that limited role as the running quarterback who moved the chains and let Lee take a break and relieve the pressure.

It will be an interesting Spring to say the least, but we get Arkansas and a bowl opponent before that. Let's at least salvage something here.

The Big 12-SEC Challenge

Bill C. — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 20:46:11 -0000

After yesterday's action, which left me with the thought that there are about 4-5 actually good teams in the country, I thought it was time to discuss one thing in particular: is the SEC really infinitely better than any other conference? The reason I'm thinking of this right now is easy: Ole Miss won in Gainesville yesterday, and the settling conventional wisdom seems to be that "this is proof of how great the SEC really is" instead of "Maybe Florida's not that great this year." Meanwhile, Auburn vs Tennessee was a battle of two positively horrendous offenses. How bad are some of the offenses in the SEC? I'm confident in saying that any starting QB in the Big 12 could start for these two "strong programs", along with about six others. That's right--if Austen Arnaud were Auburn's starting QB, they'd be a better team than they are right now. And hell...if Zac Robinson played for Auburn, they'd be a Top 5 team bar none. And he's probably the Big 12's sixth-best QB!

I figured the best way to see if SEC really is head-and-shoulders above everybody else was to do a basketball-style "conference challenge". You know how it works. I was too impatient to wait for the polls to come out, so the 1-12 ranking are based completely on my own subjectivity. And we'll assume every matchup is played at a neutral site as close to directly in between the schools as possible.

Big 12

Oklahoma
Missouri
Texas
Texas Tech
Kansas
Oklahoma State
Nebraska
Colorado
Baylor
Kansas State
Iowa State
Texas A&M

SEC

Alabama
LSU
Georgia
Florida
Auburn
Vanderbilt
Ole Miss
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Mississippi State
Arkansas

Now, I'm not very confident about many of these picks, but here's how I see things one month into the season...

12 vs 12: Texas A&M vs Arkansas in Dallas

This is a game I'd pay not to see. Two once-proud programs battling with suckitude. Both teams have unimpressive home wins over the likes of Western Illinois and Army, while Texas A&M has the worst loss (in the "quality of opponent" measure, anyway--to Arkansas State) and the best win (a road win over mediocre New Mexico). I think this one comes down to defense. Both offenses are terrible, but I think ATM's defense is slightly less terrible than Arkansas'.

Verdict: Texas A&M, 20-16.

11 vs 11: Iowa State vs Mississippi State in St. Louis

Iowa State benefits from one thing in this matchup: I didn't see them lose a game 3-2 and make some of the worst offensive coaching decisions I've ever seen. Yes, ISU lost a game, 17-5, so it's not like they're more than 1% better than the Fightin' Crooms, but...I think they're 1% better than the Fightin' Crooms. This one probably comes down to one or two plays, but...in the battle of Austen Arnaud vs Wesley Carroll, give me Arnaud.

Verdict: Iowa State, 24-19. Big 12 up 2-0.

10 vs 10: Kansas State vs Tennessee in St. Louis

UT's D-line and secondary are juuuuust good enough to frustrate Josh "Boy, Does He Look Good in a Uniform" Freeman and overcome what is a ridiculously badly QB'd offense, and Arian Foster would run for 125 yards against the KSU defense. I maybe should have put KSU at #11 in the Big 12, honestly.

Verdict: Tennessee, 34-20. Big 12 up 2-1.

9 vs 9: Baylor vs South Carolina in Mobile

I'm not going to overhype Baylor here--they've got an exciting young QB and a solid coach. That's two more things than they've had going for them any time recently, but it's still only two things. South Carolina, meanwhile, beat Wofford by 10 points and UAB by 13, scoring less than 50 total points in the process. They're very solid on defense, but (and I can't believe I'm saying this in Steve Spurrier's 4th year) they have 0 explosiveness on offense. None. Zip. If Robert Griffin can make one big play on offense (and I figure he's good for 1-2, no more), Baylor could actually win this game. Repeat: in Steve Spurrier's fourth year in Columbia, SC (CoSo?), I'd pick Baylor to beat his team. This isn't the way I thought his tenure would go.

Verdict: Baylor wins, 17-16. Big 12 up 3-1.

8 vs 8: Colorado vs Kentucky in St. Louis

Kentucky has now given up 22 points in four games. I don't think they're magnificent (I still have them below Ole Miss and Vandy, for instance), but against a CU offense with no particular identity, I think they could score enough to win this one at least relatively comfortably.

Verdict: Kentucky, 23-14. Big 12 up 3-2.

7 vs 7: Nebraska vs Ole MIss in St. Louis

I might have Ole Miss too high here, but a) they did just beat Florida, and b) I am picking them to beat NU, so maybe they're not too high. Ole Miss has more speed and a better (and less temperamental) coach. I'm not tremendously confident picking this, but I'm going with the Rebels.

Verdict: Ole Miss, 34-27. We're tied at 3-3.

6 vs 6: Oklahoma State vs Vanderbilt in Little Rock

This is one of the games I'm very confident in picking. Vandy looks quite solid so far this year--they're forcing turnovers, running the ball well, playing great bend-don't-break defense, and I think Chris Nickson is a decent run-pass QB. They're a real BCS-level team, which makes me very happy (I'm a sucker for underdogs). But they simply wouldn't stop OSU enough to win this game. And if they fall behind, they can't pass well enough, even against an iffy Poke secondary, to catch up.

Verdict: Oklahoma State, 41-28. Big 12 regains the lead, 4-3.

5 vs 5: Kansas vs Auburn in, uhh, Carbondale?

Auburn really frustrates me. I love watching their defense fly all over the field, I like Tommy Tuberville...and their offense makes me nauseous. But KU can't run the ball, and you have to be able to both run and pass to consistently move the ball against Auburn. Todd Reesing would be picking himself up off the ground after every pass in the second half.

Verdict: Auburn, 17-9. We're tied again, 4-4.

4 vs 4: Texas Tech vs Florida in...Baton Rouge

Here's the game that has me the most stumped. Florida simply isn't clicking on offense this year, at least not to the degree I expected them to when I called them the best offense in the country in the preseason. I almost want to pick Texas Tech just to penalize UF for that horrendous 4th-and-1 play call late in yesterday's game. Meanwhile, the Florida defense isn't one of those great SEC D's right now, so Tech could probably move the ball. But I just can't convince myself that Florida would lose to Tech. Just can't do it.

Verdict: Florida, 41-31. SEC takes the lead, 5-4.

3 vs 3: Texas vs Georgia in New Orleans

This one is making me scratch my head quite a bit. I think Texas might not actually be getting quite enough respect, but they haven't played anybody good enough to test that theory. In a world where good teams continue to lose to bad ones, Texas has demolished the bad teams on their schedule, which is all you can ask them to do. But their secondary is so young and so untested that I could see AJ Green and Mohamed Massaquoi having nice games if Matt Stafford has enough time to get them the ball. And though I like UT's team quite a bit, UGA has more big-play potential.

Verdict: Georgia, 35-24. Uh oh...SEC on the verge of clinching, 6-4.

2 vs 2: Missouri vs LSU in Memphis

I consulted a buddy from OK for this one, as I'm too much of a homer. Granted, he's still a Big 12 homer, but we basically agreed. The blueprint for beating Mizzou is a) having great DE's and b) being able to put up some easy scores. LSU's pass rush hasn't been as good as I thought it would be so far, but it's been good enough--and the defense is obviously fast enough that they can throw a lot of different coverages at Chase Daniel. Plus, they've got Charles Scott and Brandon LaFell (not to mention Trindon Holliday and 78 other really fast guys) on offense. But I can't shake the fact that this would be Chase Daniel vs Andrew Hatch and/or Jarrett Lee (Jardrew Hee?). I can't get past that. OU beat Daniel twice last year, but that was with Sam Bradford at QB. Jardrew Hee = no Sam Bradford. On that matchup alone, I'm going with the homer pick. When it's time to make a big play or lead a big drive, who are you going to pick? I'm picking Chase Daniel.

Verdict: Missouri, 31-27. Consider this a bit of a spiteful pick as well--to all of the UGA fans who chanted "SEC! SEC!" during Chase Daniel's Gameday interview yesterday...well...I hope we get a chance to play an SEC team about three months from now. Big 12 holding on, trying to force a tie, 6-5.

1 vs 1: Oklahoma vs Alabama in Little Rock

Here's one I'm relatively certain about as well. This would be a huge game, so we can be relatively certain that Big Game Bob would come out for this one. Plus, a lot of folks would probably be picking 'Bama, which means Bob could whip out the "They don't respect us" card. The Tide's biggest strength is in the trenches, but that's OU's biggest strength too. With the lines neutralizing each other, it moves to the other matchups. Bradford vs John Parker Wilson? Advantage OU. OU's WRs/TEs vs 'Bama's secondary? Advantage OU. 'Bama's WRs/TEs vs OU's secondary? Advantage OU. If OU shows up 100% for this one, they win.

Verdict: Oklahoma takes it, 30-20. It's a tie!

So the Big 12 is better at the very bottom and very top, while the SEC's better in the middle. You can dispute some of these predictions (I'm already disputing some of them), but to me there is no question that the offensive strength in the Big 12 is good enough to balance out the defensive strength of the SEC. Obviously a challenge like this would never happen in football, but it's decent food for thought.

Poll

On a scale of 0 to OMG, how misguided am I to think the Big 12 is relatively even with the SEC right now?

0 - right on, brother!

118 votes

5 - The Big 12's good, but let's not go overboard

51 votes

17 - Any conference that employs Ron Prince has no place battling the SEC

7 votes

OMG - You're a freaking moron. ESSSSSSSSSS EEEEEEEEE SEEEEEEEEEE SPEEEEEEEEEEEEED!!!!!!!

8 votes

184 votes | Poll has closed