SB Nation - Matt Flynn

I Don't Like Asking For Change

Richard Pittman — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:35:33 -0000

Let me get some things out of the way here. I think Les Miles, who I thought was on the warm seat earlier this year, I think that barring an absolutely catastrophic collapse where we are not competitive against either Ole Miss or Arkansas, he has clearly earned next year.

However, given our performance in our win against Louisiana Tech, a catastrophic collapse is not exactly impossible. I'm not talking about merely losing. Losing happens. These teams are pretty good, and we are only pretty good ourselves. Losing both games is entirely possible, but merely losing would only crank up the heat a little bit and make 2010 do-or-die. It wouldn't get the water boiling. I'm talking about 35-10 losses where we don't play close to the level of competition and look flat and uninspired (like we did on Saturday). That would maybe, possibly lead to a change at the top, but even then I am not so sure.

I certainly don't want it, and I really don't expect it. I think we are going to be a much better team this Saturday than we were last Saturday.

I do, however, believe that it is time for a change of offensive philosophy. I watch college football games and I see other teams run a play where everyone is perfectly positioned to block someone and open a lane for someone with the ball. I see passing routes run with perfect timing and precision. I see elaborate plays (a couple of them) run beautifully. I hear announcers say, "That was a beautifully designed play, and well-executed by the [mascots]." I never hear that said about LSU.

The last time I remember a "beautifully designed play" that was well-executed was when Matt Flynn hit Richard Dickson on a "tackle-eligible" or unbalanced line pass play in the BCSNCG two years ago. That was a heck of a play, and Gary Crowton deserves not-a-little-bit of credit for our 2007 national championship, but it's clear that things have been regressing offensively since then.

In 2007, we never adjusted to Jarrett Lee's problems throwing the ball, and to make matters worse it seemed like whenever something bad would happen on the field, Lee would go sit on the bench by himself and get no instruction or no encouragement from any coach. He would just sit and wallow in misery.

And this year, the numbers tell the tale. We have future NFL players at WR#1, WR#2, WR#3, running back, tight end, and offensive tackle, and we have what I think is a reasonably solid college quarterback, yet we are 11th in the SEC in total offense. 9th in scoring offense. 10th in rushing offense. 9th in passing offense. We have one of the worst offenses in the conference despite having among the best skill-position talent and an offensive line that Miles says is his most talented ever.

I think the root cause of this is our desire to run anything and everything at any time. I feel like a broken record for saying this so much lately, but I think that we run so many different and disparate things that we can't possibly run all of it well. Not only can we not possibly run all of it well, we're not running any of it well.

I am tempted to say, "Well, let's let Miles just rein in Crowton," but that would be like buying a Miata and asking it to haul lumber for you. Gary Crowton cannot be Joe Paterno, because that's not Crowton's game. Crowton is wide open, throw everything at you all the time. If you want something different from that, you want someone besides Crowton. Personally, I think his type of game would play better in the NFL, where offenses have enough practice time to get good at everything. Meanwhile, his multi-set offense becomes a hindrance in college.

Settle Down Beavis

Richard Pittman — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 11:34:35 -0000

Yes, I had juvenile tastes in television when I was younger. Heck, I'd watch B&B today if it came on and my wife would let me.

Yesterday, I read one "fan" comment that, "Jordan Jefferson looks like a worse Marcus Randell [sic]. I hear Chris Garrett is the next Matt Flynn. Let's give him a shot." Another comment was that Jordan Jefferson looks like a special education student.

I don't think I need to say just how appalling those statements are. The first one, you almost have to wonder if the person is even aware of what that sounds like. (For the record, I think Chris Garrett could be better than Matt Flynn, but Flynn also did not really get his chance until his 5th year, while Garrett is a true freshman). The second one is simply overwhelming in its brazen lowness.

This has long been one of the difficulties in covering LSU athletics. It seems like every time something goes wrong, the LSU equivalent of a few thousand Trogdor the Burninators come out from under and rampage through the countryside. I always wonder if other schools have these types of fans too.

And it's not a new thing. It's not a product of being spoiled as a fan base. The exact same sorts of things would happen 15 years ago during the Hallman era. As I am not a fan of other schools, I can't really say if this is an LSU thing or a college athletics thing. I suspect it's a college athletics thing, but I do not know for sure.

Yes, it was a poorly played game for our offense. No, Jordan Jefferson did not play particularly well. And it is correct that it is difficult to mark any improvement in his play from the beginning of the season to now. Do I think another QB should be given a chance? I'm not sure on that yet, but I am definitely thinking about it. Jefferson's play wasn't all bad. He had a good completion percentage, which would have been reduced if he'd thrown the ball away when he needed to. He had some nice runs. Except for that miserable 3rd quarter, his play could be considered unspectacular but competent. The third quarter, not so much on that second adjective. (Grammar is for snobs).

My point is, fans should keep criticisms of players constructive. It's a little different when talking about coaches, who are grown men making tons of money to do what they do. Players are working hard, putting their bodies and their health on the line for comparatively little. Keep your comments above-board when talking about a player. When talking about a coach, just remember that they have families and loved-ones too, but I am also mindful that coaches know exactly what they're getting into when they sign on for the coaching life. It's hard to say the same of an 18-year-old kid who signs scholarship papers.

One of the things I like about the little website we've built up here is that our readers are above that sort of thing. Even CFB, whose relentless pessimism drives some people a little crazy in the game threads, at least keeps his comments on a plain significantly higher than what I see elsewhere, and isn't making his points through personal insults. While I don't advocate relentless pessimism as a way of life, if you're going to do it, you should at least do it right, which CFB does.

That's just to cite one example.

So yes, let's discuss the issue of Gary Crowton's job security. It's hard to say last year was a success for his offensive system, and this year the offense has looked downright pitiful at times. All the while, we are wondering why a dynamic player like Russell Shepard is getting so little playing time. On the other hand, he is just 2 years removed from a national championship season in which the offense was outstanding.

The difference, as far as I can tell, is that when Gary Crowton got here he had an experienced quarterback with NFL potential. The last two years he has had inexperienced quarterback with potential that is yet to be determined. I think in both 2008 and so far in 2009 he has been unable to effectively compensate for having inexperienced quarterbacks. Last year, he asked Jarrett Lee to do way too much and it got him into trouble. This year, for whatever reason, the offense has been unable to accentuate Jordan Jefferson's strengths, which are his athleticism and his arm strength.

I am open to the idea of making a change at the end of the year, but I am undecided on the matter. Except for the wide receivers, it is hard to point to any unit of the offense that hasn't struggled to maintain a high level of play so far this season. Then again, this is a team that is 5-1 and the only loss was a reasonably close loss to one of the 5 best teams in the country. The second half of the year could go either way at this point. We have winnable/losable games all through the back half of the schedule. If the offense improves, the sky is still the limit for this team. If it doesn't, this team could be looking to the Independence Bowl. Or anything in between.

We just don't know at this point.

ATVSQBPI: Past is Prologue

Richard Pittman — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 09:30:14 -0000

Former Kentucky quarterback Andre Woodson put on his old jersey and celebrated his pretty good ATVSQBPI from 2007.

You wanted more information about the And The Valley Shook Quarterback Productivity Index, and I am here to give it to you. I have the data going back three years in the SEC. The first year can be found here, and we will reproduce it for this post.

Again, reminding you that the formula is as follows:

ATVSQBPI = (yards passing + yards rushing - yards lost by sack + 20*Number of Touchdowns - 30*Number of Interceptions)/(Number of pass attempts + rush attempts).

The explanation for why we use this particular formula is found here, but realize we are not using the complete formula because First Down stats are not quite as readily available, and it should pretty much wash out anyway. Plus, we've all gotten used to the scale this particular metric gives us.

Would you like to see 2006 and 2007? How about after the jump?

2008:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	8.73
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	8.49
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss	7.84
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.87
Casey Dick, Arkansas	5.68
Jarrett Lee, LSU	5.56
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.12
Jordan Jefferson, LSU	5.11
Nick Stephens, Tennessee	5.10
Kodi Burns, Auburn	5.02
Chris Nickson, Vandy	5.01
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina	4.95
Tyson Lee, Mississippi State	4.86
Mike Hartline, Kentucky	4.77
Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee	4.34
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	4.03
Chris Todd, Auburn	4.02
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	2.85

Alright, we've been through those numbers once before. Let's take a look at 2007:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	9.11
Ryan Perrilloux, LSU	8.20
Erik Ainge, Tennessee	7.12
Andre Woodson, Kentucky	6.89
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	6.78
Casey Dick, Arkansas	6.15
Matt Flynn, LSU	6.08
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina	5.81
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.69
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.62
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	5.16
Seth Adams, Ole Miss	5.03
Brandon Cox, Auburn	5.00
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	4.73

What are my take-away messages from this?:

Numbers were generally better in 2007 than they were in 2008.
Wesley Carroll was the worst starting QB in the SEC in both 2008 and 2007.
Tebow was a little better in his Heisman year than in his junior year. Or at least, he was a little more productive.
You really can win with average QB play, if you consider that LSU won the national championship with middle of the pack quarterback play in 2007, while Auburn was a pretty decent team with one of the least effective QBs in the conference. It sure makes it easier, though, if you're really good.
Just look at Ryan Perrilloux. That's what we didn't have in 2008. Well, that and a defense.
Andre Woodson was held back by his awful rushing numbers (not shown).

Let's move on to 2006, in which I lift the numbers straight from my old website:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Jamarcus Russell, LSU	9.16
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina	8.26
Erik Ainge, Tennessee	8.07
Andre Woodson, Kentucky	7.79
Chris Leak, Florida	7.02
Syvelle Newton, South Carolina	7.00
Casey Dick, Arkansas	6.99
Chris Nickson, Vandy	6.55
Brandon Cox, Auburn	6.37
John Parker Wilson, Bama	6.14
Omarr Conner, Mississippi State	6.13
Michael Henig, Mississippi State	5.82
Matthew Stafford, UGA	5.78
Mitch Mustain, Arkansas	5.68
Brent Schaeffer, Ole Miss	4.27

What are my take-home messages from 2006?:

Jamarcus Russell had the best ATVSQBPI of any quarterback between the years 2006 and 2008.
But on the other hand, numbers in general declined steadily in those years. Just look at John Parker Wilson. His ATVSQBPI actually fell each year he was a starter, but his ranking increased. Some of the worst QBs in the league in 2006 would have been pretty average in 2008 with the same production. Look at where Omarr Conner and Michael Henig would have ranked in 2008? Does this mean that Michael Henig was as good a quarterback in 2006 as John Parker Wilson was in 2008? Heck no. The steady decline of the mean from year to year, and the reduction in production of John Parker Wilson as he went from sophomore to senior, suggest the reduction is due mostly to better defenses.
Look at the steady progression of Matthew Stafford.
What the heck happened to Blake Mitchell?

If you have any additional thoughts, I welcome you sharing them.

Mizzou 2009, Part One: Blaine Gabbert and the Four-Year Precedent - Why establishing expectations is so difficult

RPT — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:00:10 -0000

More photos » by L.G. Patterson - AP

Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert scrambles for yardage during the spring Black and Gold college football scrimmage on Saturday, April 18, 2009, in Columbia, Mo. (AP Photo/L.G. Patterson)

Browse more photos »

By this point, Missouri fans know all the questions around the conference. Is Kansas the most talented team in the North and, if so, will the schedule still prevent them from winning the division? Is Nebraska officially "back" enough to take the division despite trips to Columbia and Lawrence? Is this the year Colorado finally justifies a slew of "sleeper picks" from assorted media?

Within the confines of the Missouri program, there are multiple questions, to be sure. How will the offense and defense perform under new coordinators? What kind of depth can Missouri develop on the defensive line? Does the pass defense have anywhere to go but up?

But there's simply no avoiding THE question, and that question comes in the form of the 6-5, 240-pound righty wearing No. 11 behind center: How exactly will Blaine Gabbert perform for the Missouri Tigers in 2009? That question spawns another question, however. What is a fair expectation for Gabbert in 2009?

And, thus, the impossibility of determining the parameters of statistical success begins.

Now, I don't aim to (nor could I) infringe upon the statistical sovereignty of The Boy Bill C., but for months, I'd been wanting to look at the first year numbers of quarterbacks in similar situations. What follows the jump is a year-by-year breakdown of the last four seasons, looking at underclassmen in their first years of starting for teams coming off of a season in which they were ranked OR at least received votes in the final AP poll, as well as what their performances may mean for Gabbert in 2009.

2008
(click to enlarge)

2008 fails to provide a compelling comparative paradigm for Gabbert. It's somewhat hard to believe, but Marc Verica ends up as the gunslinger of the group in terms of attempts, finishing with the highest completion percentage but also an unsightly 1:2 TD:INT ratio. The two crown jewels of this group, Terrelle Pryor and Jeremiah Masoli, can attribute a decent portion of their successes to unique skill sets, skill sets not likely to be seen from Gabbert unless Yost begins calling the zone read 35 times a game. It's here where we begin to see why style of play is the lurking variable in this equation. This exception also applies to Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan, whom I lumped into a collective vortex of mediocrity in the first year of the Rich Rod regime. The interesting cases here are Jarrett Lee and Mike Hartline. They had the collective misfortune of stepping under center following two extremely successful predecessors in Matt Flynn and Andre Woodson. Lee, in addition to throwing six pick-sixes amongst his 16 INTs, accounted for 22 percent less yardage than Flynn. Hartline's struggles to replace Woodson's 3700+ yards and 40 TDs resulted in more playing time for Randall Cobb.

2007
(click to enlarge)

Talk about a small sample size. Raise your hand if you were expecting comparisons between Gabbert and Chris Turner and Sean Canfield. As a sophomore, Turner (and his awesome blond afro) supplanted Jordan Steffy as the starter for the Terps for the last eight games of the season. Yes, Gabbert is expected to lean heavily upon Derrick Washington and DeVion Moore, but in 2007, Turner's job was to defer to seniors Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball to the tune of 32 carries a game. Canfield's numbers are slightly skewed by a late-season injury, as well as Oregon State's 55-45 run-pass numbers in 2007. Yost has indicated throughout the offseason that he'd love to get Missouri closer to a 50-50 split, but it's hard to imagine MU keeping the ball on the ground 55 percent of the time. And then there's Sam Bradford, the football equivalent of the guy who always ruined the curve in all your classes. Don't get me wrong, I'd love nothing more than to have Gabbert put up Bradford-esque numbers, but placing an expectation of a 4:1 TD:INT ratio and a Big 12 title is almost the QB equivalent of Coulter-level hype.

2006
(click to enlarge)

OK, remember what I said about Bradford ruining the curve? I take it back. Look at the yearly comparison. Graham Harrell alone might have been enough skew the numbers (after all, the attempts -- usually in the 280 range -- spiked to 373), but throw in great debuts for Chase Daniel and Colt McCoy and an under-appreciated season from Nate Longshore and the numbers jump. Instead of settling near the 3:2 TD:INT ratio for the four-year average, this rather prodigious group edged closer to 2:1. Here is where we start to get a better window for comparison. Gabbert is indelibly linked to Daniel, but is the average Missouri fan expecting him to approach the numbers reached by Daniel in 2006? It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but he also inherits a cupboard that (although not bare) isn't nearly as stacked as Daniel's was. With the Big 12 skewing the averages, the completion percentage, yards/attempt, and TD:INT ratio start to seem fair given Gabbert's situation in 2009.

2005
(click to enlarge)

If you bow at the throne of Rivals rankings, allow me to cite chapter 2005. In the previous three years covered, only one five-star underclassman (Matthew Stafford in 2006) had seen significant starting time for a team coming off of a season in which the program received Top 25 votes. The 2005 sample includes two five-stars in Kyle Wright and Rhett Bomar. For all the grief Wright got during his tenure at Miami, it all started relatively well in 2005. The 18 TDs would be a career high for Wright. Meanwhile, Bomar used his time off from Big Red Sports/Imports to put together a slightly less impressive debut. Granted, Oklahoma ran the ball on 59 percent of plays in 2005 thanks to the tandem of Adrian Peterson and Kejuan Jones, keeping his numbers (and his importance to that offense) relatively low.

What does it all mean?
(click to enlarge per game averages)

So, what does it all mean? Very little. The numbers show that the majority of underclassman starters even at recently successful programs A) are going to be relatively protected, B) will be hard pressed to have the astronomical TD:INT ratios we're used to, and C) can't really provide us with a perfect mold to place around Gabbert. According to the numbers, the average line of the first-year underclassman starter ends up being 15-for-25 for 182 yards with a touchdown and a pick. More Derrick Washington or less Derrick Washington, it's difficult to envision Gabbert only putting the ball up 25 times a game. In the 2006 analysis, I said those numbers start to look fair for Gabbert: 60 percent completion, 7.3 yards per attempt, and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio. Presuming Gabbert hovers around the 35 attempt average, that puts his nightly projections around 21-for-35 for 255 yards, and hopefully not worse than 2 TDs/1 INT.

Of course, in the end, gaudy stats don't necessarily mean success (see: Juice Williams' 451 yards and 4 TD against Missouri last season). But as much as I can dance around applying finite expectations to Gabbert (and trust me, NO ONE loves ignoring stats for gut feelings more than me), if it's time to start applying digits to Gabbert's debut season as starter, this seems like as good a launching point for discussion as any.

Poll

Ignoring wins as the obvious indicator of success, on a per game average, is the proposed stat line (21/35, 255 yards, 2-4 TD, 1-2 INT) a fair expectation of success for Blaine Gabbert?

No, that expects too much of him

28 votes

Yes, seems about right

150 votes

No, expectations should be higher

28 votes

206 votes | Poll has closed