SB Nation - Richard Murphy

If College Football Had a Playoff: #13 LSU Tigers @ #4 TCU Horned Frogs

Jeremy Mauss — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:07:10 -0000

Before we get to game four the previous matchup of #12 Penn State @ #5 Florida came down to the very end with Penn State completing the first upset, and becomes the second lower seed, but first true upset in the "If College Football had a playoff." The vote was very close 93-87.

This matchup features TCU who is the top non-BCS seed and has dominated nearly every game and has played three teams that are currently ranked or were ranked in the top 25 during the season. This TCU team is top 10 in offense and defense, so LSU will have a difficult time trying to stop them or to moving the ball.

The LSU running game is balanced but nothing dynamic and unless LSU can have moderate success they will eventually become one-dimensional throwing the ball. However, LSU is 13th in total defense which would be the best defense to date that the Horned Frogs would face, and the fastest defense as well surpassing the Utes in that category.

To give some help to those who are not sure who would win I turned to What if Sports to simulate this game. The winner would be TCU in a minor blowout 2 6-3; LSU did have the game tied at 3-3 but then TCU ran off 23 straight points. The Horned Frogs rolled up 320 yards and had the edge in time of possession 38 minutes to 21 minutes.

What if Sports is not the decider in this game, you yes you! The readers of this site decide who moves onto the next round.

So gather your friends to stuff the ballot and check back daily at 12 PM eastern time to vote for the next matchup, and voting is only open for 24 hours. As they say in Chicago vote early and vote often.

TCU Stats

Passing

		Passing									Rushing					Sacks
	G	Rating	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	INT	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Sack	YdsL
Andy Dalton	12	93.0	174	279	62.4	2484	207	8.9	22	5	107	522	43.5	4.9	3	-	-
Marcus Jackson	7	265.0	2	2	100	23	3.3	11.5	1	0	17	48	6.9	2.8	0	-	-

Rushing

		Rushing					Receiving
	G	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD
Ryan Christian	11	14	66	6	4.7	0	19	244	22.2	12.8	3
Andy Dalton	12	107	522	43.5	4.9	3	0	0	0	0	0
Skye Dawson	7	13	111	15.9	8.5	0	0	0	0	0	0
Yogi Gallegos	1	1	4	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
Antoine Hicks	12	9	20	1.7	2.2	4	14	309	25.8	22.1	4
Marcus Jackson	7	17	48	6.9	2.8	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jeremy Kerley	12	14	50	4.2	3.6	3	37	457	38.1	12.4	2
Ed Wesley	11	93	605	55	6.5	4	7	142	12.9	20.3	2

Receiving

		Receiving
	G	Rec	Yds	Y/G	AVG	TD
Logan Brock	5	5	67	13.4	13.4	0
Ryan Christian	11	19	244	22.2	12.8	3
Curtis Clay	11	14	188	17.1	13.4	2
Evan Frosch	3	3	33	11	11	0
Antoine Hicks	12	14	309	25.8	22.1	4
Bart Johnson	12	26	350	29.2	13.5	0
Jonathan Jones	3	3	30	10	10	0
Jeremy Kerley	12	37	457	38.1	12.4	2
Billy Pizor	1	1	10	10	10	1
Ed Wesley	11	7	142	12.9	20.3	2
Jimmy Young	11	27	430	39.1	15.9	3

Kicking

		Field Goals								PAT
	G	0-19	20-29	30-39	40-49	50+	FGM	FGA	PCT	XPM	XPA	PCT	pts
Ross Evans	12	-	-	-	-	-	14	17	80.0%	60	62	100.0%	102

LSU Stats

Passing

		Passing									Rushing					Sacks
	G	Rating	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	INT	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Sack	YdsL
Jordan Jefferson	11	93.0	169	272	62.1	1964	178.5	7.2	16	6	104	160	14.5	1.5	1	-	-
Jarrett Lee	6	73.0	16	40	40	197	32.8	4.9	2	1	3	-23	-3.8	-7.7	0	-	-
Russell Shepard	10	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	45	277	27.7	6.2	2	-	-

Rushing

		Rushing					Receiving
	G	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD
Trindon Holliday	12	23	116	9.7	5	1	3	36	3	12	0
Jordan Jefferson	11	104	160	14.5	1.5	1	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon LaFell	12	4	6	.500	1.5	0	52	705	58.8	13.6	10
Jarrett Lee	6	3	-23	-3.8	-7.7	0	0	0	0	0	0
Richard Murphy	2	2	10	5	5	0	1	4	2	4	0
Charles Scott	9	116	542	60.2	4.7	4	8	54	6	6.8	1
Russell Shepard	10	45	277	27.7	6.2	2	5	34	3.4	6.8	0
Keiland Williams	10	70	368	36.8	5.3	4	4	22	2.2	5.5	0

Receiving

		Receiving
	G	Rec	Yds	Y/G	AVG	TD
Richard Dickson	9	20	150	16.7	7.5	0
Trindon Holliday	12	3	36	3	12	0
R.J. Jackson	4	11	141	35.3	12.8	0
Mitch Joseph	2	2	18	9	9	0
Brandon LaFell	12	52	705	58.8	13.6	10
Chris Mitchell	7	10	65	9.3	6.5	0
Richard Murphy	2	1	4	2	4	0
Deangelo Peterson	4	5	82	20.5	16.4	2
Reuben Randle	7	10	146	20.9	14.6	2
Charles Scott	9	8	54	6	6.8	1
Terrance Toliver	10	47	654	65.4	13.9	3
John Williams	1	1	17	17	17	0
Keiland Williams	10	4	22	2.2	5.5	0

Kicking

		Field Goals								PAT
	G	0-19	20-29	30-39	40-49	50+	FGM	FGA	PCT	XPM	XPA	PCT	pts
Josh Jasper	12	-	-	-	-	-	16	19	80.0%	34	34	100.0%	82

Poll

Who wins?

TCU

475 votes

LSU

335 votes

810 votes | Poll has closed

LSU 23 - Vandy 9: Second Viewing

Richard Pittman — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 10:58:03 -0000

More photos » by Bill Haber - AP

Keiland Williams ices the game. (AP Photo/Bill Haber)

Browse more photos »

Because of weekend traveling, I am a little behind the regular posting schedule this week. I would have liked to have had this post up yesterday in the late morning or early afternoon, but I couldn't because I did not re-watch the game until late last evening.

I continue to believe that LSU simply dominated that game. Sure, the offense stalled for two long stretches, one in the first quarter and the other in the third and spilling over into the 4th. Vandy could get nothing going on our defense, however, and while we are always "one play away from being in trouble" until Keiland scored his second touchdown there in the 4th quarter, Vandy never came anywhere near making that one play.

Because I am by nature a cautiously optimistic, and because "cautiously" is the first word of that phrase, let's start the detailed analysis with what went wrong: the offense. We continue to have problems on the offensive line, both in pass protection and when we try a power running game. I was keeping a close eye on the center-left guard combination of T-Bob Hebert and Josh Dworaczyk and I think I can diagnose the problem in pass protection. The pass rush seems to have the most success when coming from Dworaczyk's zone. He sometimes has trouble finding a man to block, has trouble keeping his man's arms down (Jefferson's arm was hit while throwing twice, and I think both came from Dworaczyk's man), and gets beat by inside rushers at times.

The coaches think Josh Dworaczyk is a very talented offensive lineman, but he is still inexperienced. I think the problems coming from his direction should slow down as the season progresses.

I still can't figure out why we can't get a consistent push when we run with Charles Scott. I do think that perhaps the problem has been overstated a bit, because Scott had more success running the ball than his statistics suggest. While he only averaged 3.8 yards per carry, he converted a number of important 3rd-and-short situations that probably did not help his average, but helped his team a lot. I don't want to gloss over the fact that we aren't getting the same kind of production from that area that we got last year, but I also don't want to condemn it without qualification, because qualification is needed.

The offensive line does a lot better when we run other schemes. When Keiland Williams is in the game, we tend to go with a zone blocking scheme that works a lot better than a power-them-off-the-ball scheme. It doesn't hurt that this is the best Keiland has run since he's gotten here. He's running with authority and without being tentative. He's getting the most out of plays. He hasn't yet tried to reverse field and get us a huge loss. I hate it for Charles Scott, who was clearly our best back last year, but I'm just afraid that Keiland is the runner who is best able to take advantage of what our offensive line is able to do well, and he should be getting the touches. I just think that as of right now our offense is going to do better with a cut-back runner in the game. It's too bad that we lost Richard Murphy, who really could have thrived with what we're doing.

In the passing game, people have rightly asked why we threw so many screen passes and short throws. I will agree that we went screen entirely too often, to the point where the screens resulted in way too many unsuccessful plays. Part of the problem on the screens was a lack of blocking by the wide receivers. This group of receivers is not as good at blocking on those screens as previous generations of wide receivers were, and the best blocker of the group is Brandon Lafell, who is also the best receiver and seems to get the ball the most on these types of plays.

That's why the screens weren't as successful as they could have been, but they were also overused. I think that is a result of Jordan Jefferson not being a particularly accurate thrower right now. He missed on a couple throws to wide open receivers on Saturday, including a sure touchdown to Chris Mitchell that he sailed over the receiver's head. Another example was the first snap of the game for us where it looked like Brandon Lafell made a great catch that was ultimately ruled incomplete. Lafell was wide open and the throw just wasn't on target, and made Lafell have to try to make a circus grab. I think Gary Crowton is reluctant to call the intermediate routes because he's afraid Jefferson just won't hit them consistently. Still, I think it was poor playcalling to try those screens again and again when they were having such limited results.

Speaking of poor playcalling, I also didn't particularly like seeing us run not one but two options in which Brandon Lafell was the pitch man.

On defense I paid particularly close attention to the left end spot, which in the absence of Pep Levingston was occupied by a rotation of Chancey Aghayere and Lavar Edwards. These two are drawing praise for their performance, but the starting Vandy right tackle handled them one-on-one the entire game until he got hurt. Those two redshirt freshmen have talent, but they were no match for him. After he left the game with a broken ankle, Aghayere and Edwards were able to get into the play a lot more.

I still cannot express enough how well the defense as a whole played. Everyone got into the act of making positive plays. Kelvin Sheppard seems to be the message board whipping boy so far this year, and he dropped what should have been an easy interception, but let's not lose sight of the fact that it was "easy" because he read the play. While he couldn't come up with the ball, he broke up the pass what might otherwise have been a positive play for Vandy. He also gets criticized for missing tackles, and yes he missed a couple, but he also made a couple big stops.

We still aren't getting to the passer enough, but we are at least creating a little pressure. I would like to do a little more of this and really get a good pass rush going. I just don't know if he have a pass-rushing defensive line, though.

I saw Morris Claiborne get into the game and make a tackle. That's a name you're going to hear a lot in coming years.

All in all, the Vandy game was a positive step forward for the team as a whole, but we are not where we want to be yet. We get a couple relatively easy games the next couple weeks, and hopefully we can iron out the wrinkles.

A Look Back at the 2007 SEC Championship Game and What It Means to Us Now

Richard Pittman — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 12:46:43 -0000

This weekend, in my boredom and in my thirst for college football of any kind, I ended up watching the 2007 SEC Championship Game again. It always amazes me how quickly my football memory will fade. In less than 2 years, I remembered virtually nothing about this game except for Jonathan Zenon's interception returned for a touchdown. To illustrate how bad my memory of football glories past can be, not only did I forget that Ryan Perrilloux cut his finger late in the game, I actually forgot that Ryan Perrilloux was our starter in this game.

I was struck, in watching this game with the memories of the 2008 season still in my mind, of how much more effective our offense was in this game than it was in 2008. We completely dominated the game. We outgained Tennessee by 464 yards to 343. For some reason, it did not translate to points on the board, as we only scored 13 offensive points, but our offense hummed for most of this game, even with a backup quarterback in the game.

But what really struck me is that our offensive coaching staff adjusted to having a backup QB in the game. Until Perrilloux got comfortable, they protected him by not asking him to do anything really complicated. He ran a lot of draws early, and some easy dump-off passes. As he got more and more into the game, they asked him to do more and more things. It was effective (in all but putting points on the board). Perrilloux threw an interception that really wasn't his fault, and otherwise played very well.

What's striking about this is that we were unable to set up a safe offense for an uncomfortable QB in 2008. One of the big complaints people had about the offense last year was that we never adjusted to Lee's struggles. No matter how many interceptions he threw, we kept asking him to throw and throw and throw. Why is that? We showed we could do it in 2007. Why didn't we do it in 2008? I have a few possible answers to the question of why we couldn't do for Jarrett Lee in 2008 what we did for Ryan Perrilloux, and other thoughts, after the jump:

On the one hand, the offense hummed with Perrilloux in the game, piling up yards, but then again we didn't score much. Drives got yards, but then stalled. It is possible that the conservative approach led to this.
Perrilloux was a runner, while Lee was not. Gary Crowton never had the option of protecting Lee from mistakes by running QB draws or options. Lee does not have the mobility at this point in his career to run them. Lee's inability to run the ball effectively is actually something of a surprise to me. In high school, Lee was reasonably mobile. He was not a "dual threat" or "running quarterback", but he could move his feet and escape pressure to a competent degree. This has not been true of his college career so far. When we finally had to turn to Jordan Jefferson, we ran draw after draw, probably to a excessive degree.
While we had a good running game last year, I don't think we had a running game that could be effective without a changeup passing game. Charles Scott was ineffective against Ole Miss and Arkansas, and generally wore down as the year went on. With Keiland Williams having a rough start to the season, and Richard Murphy never quite getting untracked, we were forced to lean heavily on Charles Scott. It is likely that had we leaned even more heavily on him, he would have just worn down faster.
Screens were actually Lee's least competent throw last year. For whatever reason, and I don't know if we will ever quite be able to explain it, Lee struggled terribly with screen passes. Famously, the bad interception against Auburn came on a screen pass, but there were other bad moments on screens. One of my indelible memories from 2008 will be Lee throwing screen after screen into the ground because he didn't think he could get the ball to the receiver. It's hard to play it safe when your quarterback inexplicably struggles the most with the safe throws. He did much better when going to receivers down the field and outside of the hashes.
We sure would have been a lot better with Perrilloux at the helm in 2008. Perrilloux would have joined the small number of really good QBs in the conference and we would have won more games. He had a strong arm and was mobile, and despite his off-the-field brain cramps he seemed to have a pretty good head for the game when he was on the field. Yes, we still would have had a putrid pass defense, and in fact that putrescence may have been disguised by a good quarterback, meaning we might still be burdened by it to this day, but it sure would have been nice to pick up another couple wins in 2008.
Keiland Williams had a disastrous run in which the blocking collapsed and the defense converged on Keiland for a substantial loss, but instead of just moving forward as far as possible and taking the 4 or 5 yard loss, he tried to reverse the field and ended up taking an even bigger loss, which effectively killed that particular drive. In retrospect, we may be able to trace Keiland Williams struggles in 2008 to this play. Keiland was actually doing very well in the game. He had broken off a 27 yard run and a 12 yard run. If you take out the 14 yard loss, he ran 4 times for 48 yards. He got hurt on the play and didn't play again on the night. Then last year he ran timidly and ineffectively at the start of the season, earning the ire of fans. He played a lot better towards the end of the year though, and this gives me hope that he will have a better 2009.
Richard Murphy looked more comfortable on the field in this game than he did at any time in 2008.
With good personnel on the field, Gary Crowton had a lot of success when he dialed up a creative play. Crowton's offense did not have a lot of success last year, but if Jefferson can run and pass effectively, and with quality skill position players everywhere else and hopefully a good offensive line, our offense could be extremely dangerous in 2009.

2009 SEC West Preview & Predictions

outsidethesidelines — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

In attempting to predict the SEC last year, I simply went through each member school's schedule and made definitive picks, game-by-game, and then compiled everything at the end to determine the overall standings and the division champions. For the 2009 season, however, I decided to scrap that format. As appealing as picking individual games can be simply because of its definitive nature, in many ways it is just a waste of time because there is just entirely too much random chance involved in each particular game, and on the whole it's far better to simply view the season in its entirety instead of trying to dissect its individual components from the outset.

To that end, this year I'm going to focus more on teams as a whole and make final predictions from there, thus omitting the individual game predictions. Moreover, unlike last year where I predicted the entire SEC, this year I'm going to focus only on the SEC West. My thought is that unless the terrorists successfully carry out jihad against Gainesville, the Gators are going to win the East by a mile, and frankly if you aren't a fan of one of the other five SEC Eastern Division members, who really cares what order they go in two through six? Thus, here goes my SEC West preview and predictions for 2009:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Coming into the season as the prohibitive favorites for the first time in ages, a quick look reveals why the prognosticators have been so high on the Tide. This is the most talented team we've seen in Tuscaloosa in ages, and the defensive side of the ball should probably be stronger than any defense the Tide has fielded since 1992. With the strength of the front seven -- a front seven that could legitimately feature three All-American candidates -- 'Bama should once again field an elite run defense. The loss of Rashad Johnson won't help things, but 'Bama led the SEC in conference play last year in pass efficiency defense, and by returning every other member of the two-deep rotation in the defensive backfield -- not to mention additions from Dre Kirkpatrick and Burton Scott -- a drop-off in performance is unlikely. Furthermore, things could even better, because for the first team since 2002, Alabama looks to have the pieces in place to at least be a solid pass rushing team, and even a solid, consistent pass rush would work wonders for the overall pass defense given the quality of defensive backs the Tide has.

The offense, too, has more than its fair share of strengths. Mike Johnson is one of the best guards in the country, and Colin Peek will be one of the conference's upper echelon tight ends if he can stay relatively healthy. Of course there is Julio Jones, already probably the greatest pure wide receiver in the history of Alabama football, but aside from him the rest of the receiving corps is deep with many talented playmakers in the fold. Likewise, the backfield is loaded with elite talent including the likes of Mark Ingram, Roy Upchurch, Trent Richardson, and others. And as an additional matter, quality depth on both sides of the ball is better than we have in years in Tuscaloosa.

With that glowing overview in mind, however, this is far from a flawless team. Greg McElroy has made tremendous amounts of progress in the past 18 months, and he has done effectively all that the coaching staff has asked him to do until this point. I think 'Bama fans can be as confident as can reasonably be expected with him under center, but until you step under center against a hostile defense in a real, live situation, frankly you can never really know what to expect. I think it's fair to say that the reasonable expectation for McElroy right now is that he will provide solid play at the quarterback position, but that is not to say anyone should be overly shocked if he suddenly turned into a liability.

The real concern, though, is the offensive line. The ideal situation for the Tide, of course, is to have the line mow over opponents like last year, dominating the game and turning McElroy into a game manager. Unfortunately, there's no such guarantee of that. The official depth chart will not be released until next week, but that notwithstanding, the starting five is this, going left to right: James Carpenter, Mike Johnson, William Vlachos, Barrett Jones, and Drew Davis. And I'll be frank, though quality depth is much improved, I think we should be a bit concerned with this group. Barrett Jones may play well at right guard (and I figure he is at least decent), but his presence is a major surprise, and we won't be able to give Drew Davis near the help from backs and tight ends that we did a year ago without having Andre Smith locking down the other side. Mike Johnson should do well again, but while James Carpenter and William Vlachos look to be solid players, a step down in performance from what we had a year ago at those positions is probably to be expected. As a whole, I don't think you have to worry about the line being bad -- far from it, I think the line should be pretty good -- but by the same token, I think we'll struggle somewhat in pass protection this year (as we did last year), and in the running game this line probably won't be able to consistently annihilate opponent's at the point of attack like it's predecessor did a year ago. That translates into putting more pressure on McElroy and forcing him to make more plays in the passing game, all of which could turn relatively easy wins into close games, and close wins into close losses.

Finally, special teams remains a legitimate concern for the Tide. Our coverage units should do really well simply because the great athletes we will be able to put on special teams, but the rest remains a concern. There is no doubting that Javier Arenas is an elite returner who will generate his fair share of big plays, but his decision making ability on punt returns is highly questionable at best, and many times last year he gave the opposition points on turnovers as a result of his poor decision making. Moreover, Leigh Tiffin will probably remain highly inconsistent at best (even when he is healthy), and frankly we do not want to see him trotting on the field with the game on the line. Likewise, he doesn't routinely get great distance and / or hang time on his kick-offs, another concern. Along those same lines, P.J. Fitzgerald at punter is a concern as well. He has slowly progressed and improved in his time at Alabama, but he's a small kid with an average-at-best leg, so he has most likely reached his peak. The smart money is clearly on yet another year in which Fitzgerald cannot produce great distance or hang time on his punts. As a result, despite some likely good coverage units and big plays from Javier Arenas, special teams isn't likely to be a strength for the Tide in 2009, and may in fact even be a liability.

Fortunately for Alabama the schedule does set up nicely. The opener against Virginia Tech will be a tough one -- and a loss there, at the very least, likely eliminates the Tide from BCS bowl contention (unless they can run the table from there) -- but a win there and it's relatively easily sledding until the road trip to Oxford the second week of October. Likewise, even after the Rebels, Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina, and UT-Chattanooga remain on the schedule, all four of which should be wins. An upset loss here and there wouldn't be a shock, but the defense and the coaching is good enough to guarantee at least nine wins barring either a complete meltdown by either McElroy, or a terrible run of injury luck.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Bobby Petrino's debut campaign in Fayetteville has about as many obstacles as expected, but things seemingly look much better for year two. It's clear that Petrino and company are still rebuilding the Razorbacks, but this is a much better squad than what we faced last year in Fayetteville, and all of those teams that got an easy win over the Hogs last year won't be so lucky in 2009.

The biggest single addition for Arkansas comes at the quarterback position. The Hogs spent most of last year with Casey and Nathan Dick at quarterback, and suffered the consquences thereof. Neither of the two were legitimate SEC caliber players, but all of that changes this year with the arrival of the gargantuan Ryan Mallett. A former five-star recruit from Texarkana, Mallett played as a freshman for Michigan before transferring to Fayetteville after the arrival of Rich Rodriguez. Mallett will start in 2009 for the Hogs, and in doing so he will not only be a major upgrade over both of the Dick sisters, but he'll have the strongest arm of any SEC quarterback. The reasonable expectation at this point is that Mallett will be one of the conference's top quarterbacks.

And, even aside from Mallett, there are a lot of other promising players at the skill positions for the Hogs. Tight end D.J. Williams is probably the best that the conference has to offer, and scatback Michael Smith -- who led the SEC in all purpose yardage last year -- is probably the best back you've never heard of. He's small, but he has great speed and agility, he's surprisingly effective as an inside returner, and he's much more durable than you would expect given his small frame. Likewise, with Dennis Johnson, De'Anthony Curtis, Broderick Green, and Ronnie Wingo rounding out the rest of the backfield, it's a highly talented group. Moreover, while the wide receiver corps doesn't really feature any truly great playmaker, it's a deep, solid group of guys who have shown that they can get the job done.

The real concern on the offensive side of the ball is the line. Three starters return from a year ago, and a fourth starter (Mitch Petrus) is actually a player who started in 2007. Unfortunately for the Hogs, though, All-American center Jonathon Luigs is gone, and in general the returning starters are the ones who were weak links a year ago. The tackles, in particular, Ray Dominguez and DeMarcus Love, have struggled with edge rushers, and if anything both of those guys probably should be playing inside at guard. All in all, it's just a bit of a concern for the Hogs. If these guys can consistently keep Mallett upright, the Hogs look to have a very potent offense, and one that could give even the best defenses legitimate trouble. On the other hand, a struggling offensive line will almost certainly slow what must be the unit that carries the Hogs to victory in 2009.

The defense, too, remains a major concern. The Hogs struggled defensively in 2007, and were even worse last year. In 2008 they were dead last in the conference in run defense, and the pass defense wasn't much better. Some steps may be made in the right direction in 2009 -- a couple of JUCO transfers in the defensive backfield should help, plus most of the defensive line returns -- but they still have a lot of issues, and it's unlikely that the Hogs will be able to move out of the cellar in most defensive categories in 2009.

All in all, the Hogs are a team that is clearly moving in the right direction, and they will be a dangerous team in 2009. Last year they knocked off LSU, Auburn, and almost beat Ole Miss. Rest assured they will get a couple of big-name upsets this year as well. Though sheer strength of schedule will dictate a few more roadblocks for the Hogs in 2009 -- five teams on their schedule are currently ranked in the AP top 15 -- this is a dangerous team, and one that could really surprise a lot of people if the defense can show some signs of life.

Auburn Tigers

Following their worst season in a decade, Auburn made a different kind of splash hire by bringing in former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik. Though near suicidal upon first hearing the news, most Auburn fans are now predictably bathing in the Kool-Aid, but looking at the Tigers in an objective light reveals that their fan base probably had it right to start with. On the whole, it's nearly impossible to believe their fall from grace in recent years. After going a combined 34-5 from 2004-2006, Auburn now finds itself with scholarship levels reminiscent of a program undergoing major NCAA sanctions, and possessing a depth chart paper thin in terms of both elite talent and quality depth. Things are so bad that almost any true freshman -- though they came from a highly unimpressive recruiting class -- healthy enough to play will be required do so in 2009, and a few walk-ons will be expected to contribute as well. From the outset, the mere fact that the athletic director is publicly trying to cool expectations for the program for the next couple of years ought to tell you all you need to know about their future prospects.

Chris Todd surprised many when he won the starting quarterback job all of a week into Fall camp, but despite a surgically repaired throwing shoulder, Todd's starting job probably has more to do with the shortcomings of the other candidates than it does his own skills. Neil Caudle is a bust now, as is Kodi Burns, and they are going to try to run some Wildcat-type stuff with Burns at the helm. But, of course, no one really knows what to expect of the newfangled Auburn offense. It's going to be a spread offense, but apparently one that is run-heavy, and it's also going to be a hurry-up offense to boot. And yes that's a major break from offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn's track record, and yes they are going to run some Wildcat as well. So, no, I don't have any clue as to what they are going to do, and frankly I doubt anyone else does either.

And, truth be told, it probably doesn't matter one way or the other regardless of what they do. Todd is likely to be a below average quarterback, and the offensive line looks to struggle. Lee Ziemba and Ryan Pugh look good (when healthy), but the rest of the line looks to be in major trouble. Byron Isom, Mike Berry, and Andrew McCain are nothing special, and the depth on this unit is ridiculously thin. A kid like Chris Capps would easily see playing time with this group. And making matters worse, there is zero proven depth at wide receiver. About the only good thing you can say about this offense is that the tailbacks look to be a solid group. On the whole, though, given the overall lack of depth, good quarterback play, and game-changers at the skill positions, this offense looks to struggle regardless of what type of offensive system they implement, which is exactly the reason I'm not going to waste any time here trying to predict exactly what they are going to do offensively. Again, wishbone, run and shoot, whatever, the end result is almost certainly the same.

On defense, too, Auburn has a lot of problems. Last year's group was strong one hindered only by an incompetent defense, but a lot has changed since then. Guys like Trey Blackmon and Jerraud Powers left early, and what is left is largely a shell of what once was. The entire group is thin as a whole, and outside of Josh Bynes and Antonio Coleman, it's hard to identify many defenders who are clearly above average at this point. Mike McNeil is a fine player at safety, but he broke a leg in Spring practice, and at this point it looks like he is going to miss a few weeks of the season at least. Eltoro Freeman is a JUCO transfer who could really help out and be an impact player, but he has missed time this Fall with both an arm injury and a leg injury. All in all, much like the offense, the defense features very few top-end players, and almost no quality depth whatsoever.

On the whole, Auburn has a fairly decent starting 22, but considering modern day college football is a game that needs 50-55 good, solid contributors in order to play at a high level, that doesn't do them much good. Again, quality depth is the name of the game in football, and Auburn possesses almost none of that precious commodity. The schedule isn't easy in 2009, either, and frankly only Furman and Ball State are guaranteed wins. Of course Auburn will get more wins than that, I'm sure, but the point remains that wins likely won't come frequently for the '09 Tigers, and the few that do will likely be the result of some very close, hard fought contests. Much like last year, Auburn expects to be fighting tooth and nail with Mississippi State for last place in the SEC West.

LSU Tigers

After a disappointing 2008 campaign, the Bayou Bengal faithful hopes for improvement in 2009, and in all fairness they probably should get it. Jordan Jefferson, at the least, shouldn't be quite as disastrous as Jarrett Lee was a year ago, and while John Chavis is not a spectacular hire at defensive coordinator -- and in fact one I don't like in the long run -- he's an upgrade over what they had a year ago. As a result,

At quarterback the job belongs all to Jordan Jefferson now, and we'll have to see what he has made of. The LSU Hype Machine naturally has him as a superstar in the works, but a more objective view reveals more question marks and uncertainty. He played decent football last year -- relative to what Jarrett Lee did anyway -- but nevertheless he struggled to complete passes, and he took a ton of sacks thanks to his poor decision-making abilities. Based on what Jefferson has shown us, he looks to be a solid player eventually, but he still has a lot to prove, and all of these purple and gold notions just assuming that it's only a matter of time before he becomes a star quarterback are really just wishful thinking more than anything else. For now, what we can reasonably say about Jefferson is that he has a nice physical skill set with good long-term upside, and that if the LSU coaching staff uses him wisely, he might not be a top-end player this year but he will at least provide solid play and not turn the LSU offense into a trainwreck like Jarrett Lee did a year ago.

The rest of the skill positions are generally in good shape in Baton Rouge. Brandon LaFell will be one of the conference's top receivers, and likewise Richard Dickson will be one of the conference's top tight ends. Charles Scott is one of the conference's better tailbacks, and there is a lot of depth in the backfield with Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy, and incoming freshman Mike Ford. Likewise, while I don't think Russell Shephard will ever be an above average quarterback in this league, he's clearly an elite athlete, and I'm sure the LSU coaching staff will find some ways to take advantage of that this year. The only real concern at the skill positions is a lack of experienced depth, but the Tigers have recruited extremely well, and tremendous amounts of raw talent and athleticism are everywhere, so they should likely be fine even though they are not particularly experienced. Besides, experience at the skill positions tends to be a bit overrated, and in any event the Tigers aren't likely to face a legitimate test until the fifth week of the season when they go on the road to face Georgia, so again lack of experience shouldn't be a major concern.

The real concern with LSU's offense in many ways, much like Alabama, is with the offensive line. Jefferson is still green and ideally the coaching staff would be able to use a highly successful running game to take pressure off of him, but again there is no guarantee that will happen. Ciron Black is clearly the best tackle in the conference now, and Joseph Barksdale is more than adequate at right tackle. However, the interior linemen aren't necessariliy strengths. Gone are left guard Herman Johnson and center Brett Helms -- both punishing blockers in the running game -- and while Lyle Hitt returns at right guard, I've always considered him to be the weak link of the line. Making matters worse, T-Bob Hebert was expected to start at center after the departure of Helms, but he has been banged up in Fall camp, and that too is in question now. Moreover, this is a young line that probably doesn't have as much depth as you would at first imagine. The bottom line is that center / guard play of the interior linemen is exponentially important to the success of the running game, and if LSU has trouble here -- regardless of their strengths at the tackle position -- the running game will suffer, and more pressure will be put on Jefferson to make plays on his own. Again, as was the case with Alabama and Greg McElroy, that could very well result in more mistakes from the quarterback position, which can easily turn relatively easy wins into nailbiters, and close wins into close losses.

Defensively, the Bayou Bengals look to rebound from its worst showing in years in 2008. Truth be told, though, the LSU defense a year ago was a tale of two stories... a really good run defense, mixed with a really bad pass defense. And the bad news for the Tigers is that the cornerstones of the run defense -- the defensive line and linebacker Derry Beckwith -- have all moved on to the next level, so there are legitimate question marks there. Most of the defensive backfield returns, but again it is returning a unit that couldn't stop the pass, despite the fact that they were constantly helped by a good pass rush. Nevertheless, LSU has boatloads of talent all over the defense, and the real question is just whether or not they can take full advantage of it. They couldn't do that a year ago and struggled, but it will take an equally bad showing by both coaches and players to get a repeat performance of that poor effort in 2009.

All in all, LSU is a difficult projection, easily the most difficult of the entire SEC, and perhaps even the country. You still have questions at quarterback, and the running game may not go as smoothly as many assume. Furthermore, while the talent is there on the defensive side of the ball, and while John Chavis is an upgrade over Peveto and Mallory, he himself on occasion did field some bad defenses in Knoxville despite having loads of elite talent up on ol' Rocky Top. Plus, each and every year since arriving in Baton Rouge, Les Miles and company have lost games to some not so impressive teams that they should have easily won, and that will likely continue in 2009. On the other hand, LSU is easily still one of the nationally elite programs in terms of raw talent and athleticism, and the schedule once again is doing them a huge favor. Their athletic department continued a commitment to cupcakes approach to non-conference scheduling in 2009 -- getting 0-12 Washington, mixed in with Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Tulane -- and that combined with the luck of drawing the likely three worst SEC teams (Auburn, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt) means that they could play very poorly and still easily sleepwalk to seven wins. As I said two weeks ago, if I had to give all the possible outcomes, I'd say LSU could go anywhere from 7-5 to 11-1, and I'd give them a 20% chance of each individual outcome. Exactly where will they end up along that spectrum? It'll probably come down to the same two things it did a year ago: coaching and quarterback play, but trying to predict exactly where cannot be anything more than a pure guess at this point. Only with ignorance could you be particularly certain of that prediction at this point.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

After showing some signs of life for almost the first time in a decade, the Bulldogs came crashing back down in 2008, and the struggles brought a new regime to Mississippi State. Out is Sylvester Croom, and for the first time in almost 20 years a non-Alabama alum is roaming the sidelines in Starkville, as Dan Mullen takes over for the Bullies. And in all fairness to MSU, it's not a bad hire. Mullen is a young, energetic coach who is on the rise, and one who already has a couple of national championship rings on his resume. His hire may very well have been better than either Lane Kiffin or Gene Chizik.

That notwithstanding, though, it looks to be a very harsh reality for the Bulldogs in 2009. Mullen may have been hired because of his offensive background, but it's hard to see him breathing any life into this offense in 2009. It's been hapless for years, and with the 5'10 and 195 pound Tyson Lee leading the offense this year, it's hard to see that changing. It will probably be a major shock if he can withstand a year's worth of pounding in the SEC, and even if he can he's not likely to be very effective anyway. True freshman Tyler Russell is the quarterback of the future in any event, and his reign will likely begin sometime this year in Starkville. That's good news in one sense because Russell is a much more talented player than Lee, and he's a bitter fit for Mullen's spread option system, but I'll let you do the math on the success true freshmen quarterbacks have in this league while surrounded by poor supporting casts.

And speaking of that poor supporting cast, I think that's probably the nicest way to put it. The wide receiver corps has some problems, to put it mildly. Brandon McRae is a fine wide receiver, but who knows how he will rebound from the gruesome, Prothro-esque broken leg he suffered last year against Ole Miss? And aside from McRae, there really are no proven commodities. JUCO transfer Leon Berry will be counted on heavily, and from there true freshmen like Chad Bumphis will get a great chance at playing time. Mullen's spread needs a lot of quality receivers, and the Bulldogs just don't have it right now. Likewise, the offensive line doesn't look very good either. To be sure, most of the starters return from a year ago, but MSU has struggled in the trenches for ages now, and the physical brand of football that the Dawgs often played with under Croom will do them no good under Mullen. How will the MSU linemen handle the transition to the spread option? It's anyone's guess, but nearly everyone will be surprised if they do it with any considerable degree of success.

Probably the best player State has, period, is tailback Anthony Dixon, but even with him you have to worry. He's a big, powerful running back who gets the job done between the tackles. Now, one of you readers, remind me... how successful has Urban Meyer been with big, powerful, between the tackle running backs? His only success with them has been signing them, and then watching them flame out as recruiting busts. His offense has no real need for such a player, and Mullen's might not at MSU either. I'm sure he'll try to work Dixon into the mix as much as possible just because he's one of the few talented players he has, but at the end of the day the point remains that Dixon is built to run out of the I-formation and in between the tackles, not as the centerpiece of the spread option. Look for Christian Ducre to get more of a role there simply because he's a better fit for the scheme.

And the defense is probably in just as bad of shape as the offense. Defense was the strong point of the Croom teams, but only three starters are returning in 2009. The defensive line is both small and without any great amount of depth, so much so that when JUCO transfer Pernell McPhee -- a good player in his own right, in all fairness -- stepped on campus, he probably became State's top lineman almost instantaneously. That's good news for State, but the bad news is that he'll likely have to be a truly dominant player just to give the rest of the line a fighting chance. Likewise, the defensive secondary is effectively a complete makeover. Marcus Washington returns at cornerback, and Damein Anderson looks to start opposite him, with Derek Pegues gone, the rest of the Bulldog secondary seemingly either lacks the size or speed (or both) needed to be high-end defensive backs in this conference. Last year's defensive backfield was a good unit for the Dawgs, but it'd be a major surprise if this revamped unit could pull off the trick again this year.

The only good news for the Dawgs on defense comes at linebacker. If Jamar Chaney successfully returns from his leg injury, he'll be a top end player, and perhaps the most underrated defensive player in the entire conference. Aside from Chaney, both K.J. Wright and Chris White are solid players in their own right, and if this unit can stay healthy, it has a chance to be a good one. Unfortunately, the rest of the defense looks to struggle so much in front of them and behind them that it probably won't give them much of a chance to shine.

As I've said before, I've always had a soft spot for the traditionally hapless Bullies, and I like Dan Mullen to boot, but objectively speaking it looks to be a long year ahead for them. They'll start off with a good fluff win over Jackson State, but from there the schedule is brutal. They will almost certainly be underdogs in every single conference game, Georgia Tech will go through them like a hot knife through butter, and even Houston and Middle Tennessee State probably aren't sure wins.

Ole Miss Rebels

The media darlings of the SEC this year, Ole Miss made a big jump last year, and many in the national media are betting that they will make yet another big jump in 2009. Yet, interestingly enough, they were picked to finish third in their own division at SEC Media Days. And that brings me to a point that I keep coming across... the further away you get from the Ole Miss program, the more heightened the expectations are for the 2009 season. The closer you get to it, the lower the expectations get. Personally, I think that is because the people who follow the program on a closer level than the national pundits are able to spot some flaws and weaknesses that the national pundits are apparently overlooking in their rush to deify the Rebels as the next big thing.

And make no mistake about it, despite the hype in some circles, this team does have a lot of holes and a lot of concerns. Jevan Snead is a fine quarterback, and the backfield is generally loaded, but the offensive line looks to be a major concern. The loss of Michael Oher cannot be overstated, simply because he was an elite talent and because the Rebels do not have anywhere even near his level of ability now that can replace him. Many hoped Bobby Massie would be able to do that, but after arriving in Oxford only about three weeks back, that is highly unlikely. And making matters worse, both starting guards are gone as well, and frankly the replacements don't look to be anything overly special. Of the remaining linemen, only John Jerry looks to be one of the best in his conference at his position, and the rest of the starting five have more of the look of a below average line than anything else. It's basically the exact same problem Alabama has, only that the Rebels don't have anywhere near the number of talented players to fill the holes.

A lesser concern on the offensive side of the ball can also be found at wide receiver. With Mike Wallace gone to the NFL, only Shay Hodges remains in Oxford. Hodges is a fine player in his own right, but from there things get dicy. Dexter McCluster will assume the role of a full-time starter now in Wallace's absence, and while McCluster certainly has the talent, he thrived last year in a jack of all trades role, and no one knows how he will do as more of a traditional, full-time wide receiver. And after McCluster, the proven commodities are pretty non-existent. Players like Lionel Breaux and Markeith Summers aren't necessarily bad players, but by the same token they aren't the ultra-elite athletes that you find at a place like LSU where you can almost just assume that you can plug and play them and they will perform at a high level. The Rebels are probably going to have to rely heavily on true freshman Pat Patterson.

And the defensive side of the ball has more concerns than the offense. Peria Jerry was the key to Ole Miss' stout run defense last year, and he is now with the Atlanta Falcons, and just like with Michael Oher, the Rebels do not seem to have a player of comparable quality to replace him. Ted Laurent and Lawson Scott will play a lot inside, but I really don't think they would play for any other SEC contender, and for all of his recruiting hype and academic saga, Jerrell Powe has done nothing of note to this point. Likewise, at linebacker, it's a thin unit with no true star players. It's not exactly what you what you dream of having when you prepare for a tough run through an SEC schedule.

Defensive end is a clear strength, and if Greg Hardy finally gets things together, he along with Marcus Tillman and Kentrell Lockett will probably form the best defensive end rotation in the SEC. Unfortunately, that strength is off-set by more concerns in the secondary. They really struggled against the pass last year -- despite having the conference's best pass rush -- and while three starters return, none of those returning players seem to be particularly good. More struggles against the pass seem likely for 2009. Moreover, Houston Nutt's two major recruiting additions to the defensive backfield have already flamed out. Jamar Horsnby, the five-star who washed out of Florida after being caught using a dead woman's credit card, has been kicked off the team after yet another run-in with the law. His next stop will likely be jail. And speaking of jail, the other big recruiting addition to the defensive backfield for Nutt in 2009, Tig Barksdale, also spent some time there recently after being arrested on charges of DUI and driving without a license. Now, Barksdale will not enroll this Fall as a result of "medical issues."

So what do you have when you put it all together with the Rebels? You've got a good quarterback, a good backfield, a couple of good receivers, and a great pass rush. But you've also got major concerns with the offensive line, a middling linebacker corps, a suspect interior to the defensive line, a secondary that will likely struggle again, and a team with very little depth at almost every single position. And your head coach has disappointed almost every single time high preseason expectations have been placed upon his teams. Does that sound like a championship team to you? I'll let you be the judge of that.

Of course, this is not to overly denigrate the Rebels. They went 9-4 a year ago, and they have enough strengths to knock off almost anyone they face on any given day. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them knock off either Alabama or LSU, or both for that matter. However, before we deify the Rebels, it should be kept in mind that they have enough weaknesses to where they could just as easily lose those big games, and also lose some that they are expected to win. When everyone looks back on the 2008 Rebels, they love to remember them as the team that beat Florida in the Swamp, the team that blew out LSU, and the team that spanked Texas Tech. Yet the fact that they lost at home to Vanderbilt, lost at home to South Carolina, lost to Wake Forest, and needed a squeaker to hold off 5-7 Arkansas gets completely overlooked. Bottom line, the Rebels have enough strengths to win a lot of games and get some big wins, but they also have enough weaknesses to where they are also likely to lose some games they should not, and once again, just like last year, be left outside the championship chase.

Final SEC West Predictions

(1) Alabama: 10-2 (6-2)*

(1) LSU: 10-2 (6-2)*

(3) Ole Miss: 9-3 (5-3)

(4) Arkansas: 7-5 (3-5)

(5) Auburn: 5-7 (2-6)

(6) Mississippi State: 3-9 (1-7)

* A two-way tie atop the SEC West between Alabama and LSU, with the winner of the November 7th Alabama v. LSU game in Tuscaloosa advancing to Atlanta to face the Florida Gators.

Class of 2009: RB Michael Ford

Richard Pittman — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 17:00:16 -0000

via image.cdnl3.xosnetwork.com

Our collection of posts on the Class of 2009 is coming to a close pretty soon. Leesville running back Michael Ford is the penultimate prospect we will be examining. He is the next headliner on the list. Ford was a 5-star running back on Scout, and a 4-star on Rivals. He's an all-around back, able to run with power and with speed.

Michael Ford is an extremely hard worker. He comes to college with a workout regimen that is well ahead of his peers, and it shows. He comes to school body-ready to contribute immediately. His high school workout regimen is something of legend. His highlight videos have gotten him attention since he was a sophomore.

Ford came out of Louisiana in a year with a fair number of very well regarded running backs in or near the area. LSU turned Eddie Lacy away, declining to seriously recruit him for reasons that are still somewhat murky. Consensus 5-star running Christine Michael reportedly desperately wanted to come to LSU, but Les Miles did not show interest. LSU wanted Michael Ford and Trent Richardson, who ended up signing with Bama.

Running back is a strange position, because it seems like the ideal height for a running back is about 5'9". The low center of gravity seems to allow for quicker cutting and the delivery of compact power. Some of the best running backs ever have been small: Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders. Michael Ford is a little bit bigger than those guys, or at least he's listed a little bigger at 5'10" and 207#. He is probably a little smaller than that.

Now that Fall Practice has started, the word is that the coaches think the world of Michael Ford. The words "Herschel" and "Bo" have been thrown around. While that is certainly premature, and probably is an unreasonable expectation, it says a lot that Michael Ford is expected to contribute immediate in a backfield that includes some very good experienced backs, led by Charles Scott but also including Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy, Trindon Holliday, and Stevan Ridley, all of whom have been significant contributors in the past.

Michael Ford will not overtake Charles Scott in the rotation, but it wouldn't shock me if he overtakes everyone else. His incredible conditioning (for a freshman), his intelligence, and his outright athleticism make him a good bet to contribute early, even at a position where there is plenty of depth.

YouTube clips after the jump.

This is a highlight reel from a post-season all-star game in Hawaii, and contains all of his touches in the game. It's pretty impressive.

2009 CFN LSU Preview, Part 3

Richard Pittman — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 12:17:07 -0000

I swear this will be the last installment of this series, as I think we've milked it about as much as the audience will tolerate. Yesterday, we talked about the 10 best players on the team and the schedule. The day before, we talked about Jordan Jefferson, the defensive coaches, and the high-profile incoming freshmen. Today, let's get into some other topics. Again, the links are preview, offense, defense.

On Charles Scott:

Senior Charles Scott broke free from the running-back-by-committee backfield to rush for 1,174 yards and 18 touchdowns averaging 5.4 yards per carry. The 5-11, 233-pound senior is extremely quick with a great burst and excellent power. He ran for 95 yards or more in eight of the first ten games, and then everyone loaded up on him and the production tailed off. Even so, he's plugger who's always falling forward and is unstoppable around the goal line. He can also catch a bit with eight grabs for 67 yards, and he's not a bad blocker.

...

Watch Out For ... Scott to score 25 times. While there's enough talent in the backfield to keep a steady rotation going, Scott is the star of the show and he's the proven producer who can can control games and take the pressure off the passing game. He's also tremendous when it comes to getting into the end zone, and he'll be one of the nation's leading scorers.

I don't see 25 touchdowns happening. I actually think Scott will get fewer carries this year than he got last year, because I think we will distribute the ball a lot more between the top 4 running backs than we did last year. Keiland Williams was supposed to share the load with Scott early in the year, but he really struggled and his carries did not come. He did not run very hard it seemed; he was too tentative. Later in the season, he came on pretty strong, averaging over 7 yards per carry against Arkansas and Georgia Tech, and having a really good game against Bama. I think Keiland's going to earn more carries this year than last year.

Richard Murphy is another that could earn more carries. A proposed breakout star for the last two years running, no one is really talking about Murphy after his very weak season last year, but this is the same kid who showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman, averaging about 7 yards per touch.

The coaches love Stevan Ridley, and he got some garbage-time carries last year. He is not healthy right now, and who knows if he will get healthy, but if he is at 100% at the start of the season, his workload is likely to increase at least a little, taking more carries away from Charles Scott.

Then there are the quarterbacks, Jordan Jefferson and Russell Shepard. We know that they liked to run with Jefferson when he was in the game, and while they may cut down on his rate of planned running plays, he is not going to be a part-time player this year. He's going to be playing full time, and I would expect them to probably call about 5 planned runs per game with him. We're still not sure how they're going to use Shepard, but his wheels are just going to be too good not to use.

My tentative prediction is that, barring injuries, the coaches will give the ball to Charles Scott about 170 times, down from 217 last year. What they may do as well is give him the ball more in the passing game. Scott's a pretty good pass-catcher. He caught 12 passes in 2007, when he was a much smaller part of the offense than he was in 2008, when he only caught 8 passes.

On Linebackers:

Step one is replacing Darry Beckwith in the middle, and the Tigers have their man in Jacob Cutrera, a 6-4, 236-pound senior who was a key backup over the last few years and got two starts finishing with 33 tackles with 3.5 tackles for loss. He had a tremendous spring showing great toughness and enough range to be the leader and the anchor of the corps to work around. He has been groomed for this job for the last three years and he appears to be ready.

Is Harry Coleman really going to be the starter on the outside? The team's leading tackler, who made 71 tackles with seven broken up passes, was tried out in the linebacking corps this spring and he might be the main man after showing tremendous toughness on the strongside and good range on the weakside. A monster hitter and strong enough to handle the job despite being 6-2 and 205 pounds, he's not starting from scratch having played linebacker in high school. As good as he is, he might move back to safety from time to time just to get all the linebacker prospects on the field.

...

Strength: Tacklers. If Coleman is a linebacker, the corps will have the team's top three tacklers from last year in Coleman, Sheppard, and Riley. The linebackers don't miss many plays and they'll be all over the field doing a variety of things under the new coaches.
Weakness: Pass coverage. It's not a glaring problem, but it could stand to be better. The addition of Coleman would help change that up in a real hurry, and it would be nice if there were more broken up passes and tighter coverage on short to midrange plays.
Outlook: The position should be the star of the show. This isn't the most talented linebacking corps LSU has had, but there are producers all across the unit with Curtera about to blossom into a force and with Coleman, Sheppard, and Riley all possible all-stars. This could end up being the team's biggest strength as the season goes on.
Rating: 9

We talked about Perry Riley yesterday, so I omitted the discussion of him here.

Like a lot of people who will read the CFN preview, I think this is gloriously optimistic. The linebacking corps did not make a lot of headlines for LSU last year. Nor did Harry Coleman. Again, it is possible that the coaching situation did not get all that it could out of the group in 2008, but I'm going to have to see it turn around for myself before I'm going to go around rating our linebackers a 9 on a scale of 10.

Just for comparison. CFN rated Alabama's linebacking group as a 9 out of 10, and I just can't see giving LSU's linebackers the same grade.

On the Offensive Line:

Watch Out For ... the battle at center. Lonergan was great this spring and looks the part as a leader and quarterback of the front five. However, Hebert will need to find a space when healthy. It's a good problem to have, considering either one can move to guard, but it should end up being a good battle for the job this fall.
Strength: Durability. LSU didn't have to change its starting five once, with all the starters going from pillar to post. While it's asking a lot to get the same injury luck two years in a row, Black, Hitt, and Barksdale are rocks to build around. However, because of the durability of last year's front five ...
Weakness: Proven depth. This was supposed to be a problem two years ago, and last year, and it wasn't. There are a slew of redshirt freshmen needing to shine and players like Hurst and Parsons have to be productive, but there's a massive drop-off from the ones to the twos.
Outlook: Disappointing last year, the pass protection was mediocre and the run blocking was fine, but nothing special. This year's line has plenty of talent with Black and Barksdale a nice tackle pair, and Hitt a great blocker who should get more attention. This might not be a dominant front five, but it'll be great at times.
Rating: 8

Let me just ask this question. Is there any college football team that has a wealth of proven depth on the offensive line? Teams don't sub out offensive linemen all that much, and it's a position that always suffers a lot of attrition. There aren't a whole lot of teams out there that have multiple offensive linemen with real experience on the bench.

OK, enough of picking on the obvious. I don't really think there's a "battle at center" unless T-Bob Hebert is not healthy yet from his torn ligament suffered in the middle of the 2008 season. By all accounts, Hebert was the #1 guy in Spring despite being slowed by the injury

If there is a real weakness on this unit, it is probably size. Replacing Herman Johnson with Josh Dworaczyk is a big downgrade in size. It may be an upgrade in quickness, and size is not everything in life, but this will be a much smaller unit as a whole than it was last year. T-Bob is also a fair bit smaller than Brett Helms was (I'm not sure I believe LSUsports.net's listing of 282 pounds for him).

This will be a different unit than it has been the last couple years. Who knows? It may be a better unit, but it will not be able to rely strictly on bulk on the left side this year.

That's all for this series. Tune in next time.

Questions Coming Out of Spring Practice

Richard Pittman — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 11:42:51 -0000

With Spring Practice Officially dead and buried, it is time to look at some of the questions we still have.

1. How will the revamped offensive line perform? Last year, the offensive line was one of the strengths of the team, as we ran well and generally protected the QB as much as it could be expected against SEC defenses. This year, we have to replace 2 of the veteran linemen in Brett Helms and Herman Johnson, both of whom will be in an NFL training camp. Coming out of Spring, it looks like their spots will be taken by sophomores Josh Dworaczyk and T-Bob Hebert. What we do not know and can hardly even speculate about at this point is whether those two are really good, or if they're just "better than the alternative". Offensive line play is always the most important determining factor about how an offense will perform, as poor line play will adversely affect both the running and the passing games, and good line play will open up holes for your running backs and make your QB very comfortable in the pocket. The play of Dworaczyk and Hebert will go a long way to determining how this team will perform offensively this year. We know Ciron Black is as solid as a left tackle gets, and Lyle Hitt is a 3-year starter, so we know what he brings. We will also need Joseph Barksdale to step up his play and go from being "promising" to being "studly". Word is he is on his way to doing just that, but we will have to see.

2. Will we get consistently good quarterback play? LSU fans rightly have high hopes for Jordan Jefferson and Russell Shepard, and we actually have something of a luxury in having Jarrett Lee as an experienced player beginning the season in a backup role. The problem remains however that we have a VERY young quarterback group. We don't have any quarterback who's been around long enough to be a junior, and Jarrett Lee's 9 starts makes him by far the most experienced on the roster. Jordan Jefferson has showed great promise, but we need to remember that he is just a true sophomore, and he has started only 2 games. We enter the 2009 season with the least experience at the QB spot of any team in the conference, though South Carolina has a somewhat comparable situation.

3. Will we have productive complementary players at the skill positions? Brandon Lafell is an outstanding player and a true #1 receiver. Will we have a quality #2, #3, and #4, or will we have to rely on TE Richard Dickson even more? After a couple years of looking really great in his uniform, it is Terrance Toliver's turn to become a reliable producer. Whenever a player transitions from sophomore to junior year, you have to stop talking about his potential and start talking about his production. At 6'5" and with outstanding speed and athleticism, Toliver's potential is through the roof, but it's time to do something with it. He ended last year on a high note, catching 16 passes in his final 5 games, after catching only 6 in the previous 8. If he continues that pace and breaks a few nice gains out of it. We will also need Chris Mitchell, RJ Jackson, Tim Molton, or one of the other receivers to step up play as well. Rueben Randle or even Russell Shepard could figure into this in the Fall.

At running back, we know Charles Scott is a good power running back with the intelligence and durability to be a #1 tailback. But you need more than that. Keiland Williams was inconsistent despite solid line play, though he got more productive as the season wore on. I will speculate that I think he was not in optimum condition at the beginning of the year and he lost a step of speed. He needs to be a speed back, so he needs to get that step back. Junior Richard Murphy had a disastrous sophomore season after having high expectations heading into the season. One of these two guys will have to step up play for LSU to reach its potential. We do not know if Stevan Ridley will be sufficiently recovered from his injury to be a factor in the 2009 season. If Keiland or Murphy or Ridley can't be productive behind Scott, we may see a lot of Michael Ford when he reports for his freshman season.

4. Who will be our backup defensive linemen?

Unlike an offensive line, a defensive line cannot live by its starters alone. It needs depth. It needs a rotation. We believe we have our top 4 offensive linemen in Pep Levingston, Drake Nevis, Al Woods, and Rahim Alem. We think they are going to be very good-to-outstanding players. Levingston would be a big surprise to me. I did not really expect that of him, and I am pleased to hear the good reports. The questions are who will be backing those guys up, and how will they perform when they're needed? Charles Alexander brings experience to the defensive tackle position, as he will be on his 6th year of eligibility and was a full-time starter last year. Other than Cheese, our backups will be very green. Redshirt freshmen Lavar Edwards, Chancey Aghayere, and Chase Clement appear to have the inside track. I loved Aghayere when he was a prospect, but he has had to battle back from high school injuries.

5. Whither the defensive backfield?

We think we're pretty sure that, barring injury, Chad Jones and Patrick Peterson are going to be the starters at corner and at free safety. Other than that, it's all a mystery. Chris Hawkins was the only player to start all 13 games last year in the secondary, but he was on the Purple team for the spring game, which would suggest that he has been passed up on the depth chart. Jai Eugene took his place. Last year's starting strong safety has been moved to linebacker. Ron Brooks has won accolades at the position, but no one has said he's won a job. Karnell Hatcher was a standout last year as a true freshman, and he will have something to say about who plays that spot. At corner, we have Hawkins, Eugene, and Brandon Taylor battling for the last starting spot opposite Patrick Peterson. At strong safety we have Ron Brooks and Karnell Hatcher. Plus we have Derrick Bryant who played a bit as a freshman and who certainly isn't giving up. Even if we can make some educated guesses about who will be starting, we have absolutely no idea who will come into the game in nickel or dime situations. There's been some noise we won't have a true nickel package, but we know we'll have a dime. And let's not forget that super-prospect Craig Loston will be here soon.

Spring Preview: The Running Backs

Richard Pittman — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 11:30:06 -0000

This series is winding down. After we go through the running backs, we will just have special teams to go through. This was the one I was least looking forward to writing because the running back position is so boring. It's the most veteran unit on the field for the Tigers, with 3 seniors at the top of the depth chart and a returning All-Conference player headlining the group.

Then sophomore running back Stevan Ridley went and sustained a serious knee injury that will threaten his 2009 season. Ridley is a young running back that the coaches were very high on. He plays similar to how a Jacob Hester plays, in that he's a hard worker, he's good on special teams, he can catch out of the backfield, and he runs hard. He's a guy who is waiting patiently behind a lot of veterans, but he has a pretty bright future on this team. It is hoped that he will be back in time for the Fall, but I don't think ACL tears heal all that quickly.

If his injury lingers, it will greatly affect the Tigers 2010 and 2011 seasons, as Ridley is really the only young running back on the roster right now. As for the 2009 season, Ridley was likely to contribute as an athletic fullback. He wouldn't really be in the Quinn Johnson mode of a fullback. He would have been more in the Payton Hillis mold, as a runner, catcher, and sometimes blocker from the fullback position.

Obviously, a discussion of LSU running backs for the 2009 season begins with Charles Scott. He is the leading returning rusher in the SEC, having rushed for 1174 yards and 18 touchdowns. The 18 touchdowns led the conference. The 1174 yards was third in the conference, behind only Knowshon Moreno and Glen Coffee, who are now peddling their skills for the NFL draft.

Ground Chuck or Chuck The Chuck or whatever you want to call him had a true breakout season last year, and flirted with the idea of declaring for the draft, but decided to return. He will be a bruisingly effective runner again this year.

In Scott's first two years, he caught a number of passes out of the backfield, a dimension that seemed to disappear for him last year. Despite Scott's generally increased role in the offense last year, his receiving numbers actually declined from his sophomore year to his junior year. As a sophomore, he caught 12 passes for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns. As a junior, he caught only 8 passes for 67 yards and zero touchdowns. I chalk it up to problems Jarrett Lee had throwing screen passes, where Scott had had his most effectiveness in the passing game in 2007.

It would be nice to see that dimension re-added to Charles Scott's game in 2009.

There is some noise that Scott may be moved to fullback, as we seem to be dropping fullbacks quite rapidly. Given Scott's effectiveness as a workhorse running back, I can only see doing that if one of the guys below really emerges. The fullback position is highly unsettled with the injury to Ridley and to backup fullback Richard Dugas. There are no scholarship fullbacks on the roster right now unless you count Scott.

Senior running back Keiland Williams and junior running back Richard Murphy have seen their shares of ups and downs with the Tigers. Both entered school in 2006 after struggles to get eligible. Murphy redshirted and Williams worked his way up the depth chart as a freshman until he became a featured back at the end of his freshman year.

In 2007, Keiland emerged as a key player, averaging 6.8 yards per carry and scoring 6 touchdowns, making some highlight reel runs along the way. Richard Murphy was used less frequently but showed flashes of brilliance as a redshirt freshman.

In 2008, Keiland struggled at first. He ran tentatively and did not see the production the coaches needed to see out of him, so he did not get a lot of touches. Towards the end of season, Keiland seemed to work out whatever problems he was having and he started being more reliable. His most productive game as a runner was late in the season against Bama when he rushed for 88 yards on 13 carries, an average of almost 7 yards per carry.

On the season, Keiland had only 83 rushes for 417 yards. This amounted to more rushes than in 2007, but for fewer yards. His scoring was also down, from 6 touchdowns to 2. Considering the breakout year Scott had, it's hard to say this was a result of poor blocking. Hopefully, this year we will see more of the Keiland we saw in 2007 and towards the end of 2008 than we saw at the beginning of 2008.

And if Keiland Williams could be described as "struggling" in 2008, then it's hard to find a nice way to say what Richard Murphy was doing at that time. After averaging 6.6 yards per rush as a freshman, Richard Murphy's sophomore year saw him rush for only 4.2 yards per carry. He did not find the end zone as a sophomore. Despite a modest increase in his number of carries, his yardage numbers declined considerably from his freshman to his sophomore year.

He is probably best remembered for a disastrous experiment as LSU's "wildcat" quarterback in 2008. I suppose the LSU coaches decided to implement it to get Murphy on the field more, or to try to find how he could be effective. The formation had very limited success for LSU, and its untimely use in overtime against Bama was a significant contributor to us losing that game.

To recap, LSU had the ball first in overtime and ran Charles Scott for five yards to set up a 2nd and 5. Instead of sticking with the power running game against a tired defensive front, we instead went with the Wildcat. Everyone knew Murphy was taking the ball himself, and he was stopped for a loss, setting up a 3rd and long pass that was then intercepted. Sure, Lee gets the blame for the interception, but the unwise use of the Wildcat set up the 3rd and long that made it necessary for us to pass.

Hopefully Murphy can rediscover the form that made him effective as a freshman. We know he has it in him. He was electric with the ball in his hands in 2007, but for whatever reason it just died in 2008, when big things were expected of him after he had had a productive and highly publicized Spring campaign.

If Murphy and Williams can find the consistency to be tailbacks, it really would free up Scott to be a fullback, and it would make this team more of a speed-oriented team. And speaking of speed,

Trindon Holliday returns as a specialty player, changeup option at running back. There is some talk he may go pro in track, but for right now he is at Spring Practice and he's working with the running backs. Everyone knows Holliday is a speedster who cannot be caught if he gets a hole, but I have always been impressed by his toughness and willingness to run in traffic. I don't know if he's quite as good at running between defensive linemen and linebackers as Chris Rainey and Jeffrey Demps are for Florida, but he gives it a game effort.

Those are four veteran running backs returning to this team. It's a nice luxury to have, but you have to also think about the longer term future.

Drayton Calhoun from Tucker, Georgia is a true freshman who has enrolled for Spring and is taking part in Spring Practice. He has played with the defensive backs and with the running backs. He's a speed guy, a bit like Holliday but bigger. If he is going to be a college running back, he will have to show the ability to run between the tackles, which is an area in which he was lacking in high school if his film was any indication. Honestly, I thought he was a defensive back when I was following his recruiting, but he's getting a look at running back. We'll see where he ends up.

Michael Ford will be arriving in the summer, and he looks like an outstanding running back prospect. He and Calhoun will both have a hard time breaking into the rotation though, as there are a lot of proven guys in front of them, at least until next year.