SB Nation - Joseph Barksdale

The LSU Preview

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:16:56 -0000

No smoke and mirrors needed this week. No clever turn of phrase needed to build drama and intrigue with this game. Nope. To paraphrase what they say in the sales business, this is simply a game that sells itself. It's 'Bama v. LSU. Saban Bowl III. National championship implications clearly on the line. The entire country turning its eyes towards Tuscaloosa to play close attention at this contest. Again, this one sells itself. Let's look closer at the match-ups:

Alabama Offense v. LSU Defense

After putting up points and yards by the bushel in the first month of the season, the once prolific Alabama offense has slowly ground to a virtual halt over the course of the past five weeks. The vertical element of the passing game went into the Witness Protection Program in early October, and we still haven't seen any signs of it returning as of this writing. Mark Ingram has been nothing short of phenomenal -- sans the fumble against Tennessee -- but the lack of a vertical element to the passing game, combined with untimely penalties, questionable playcalling, and struggles in the red zone have kept the Tide offensive attack at bay and off the scoreboard.

Admittedly, the level of competition has been high the past several weeks. Kentucky has a good defense, and Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Tennessee rank in the top 25 nationally of more statistical categories than not. But such is life in the SEC... it's a brutal gauntlet of quality opponent after quality opponent, and there will be no rest for the weary this weekend when the Bayou Bengals come to town. Alas, when LSU arrives in Tuscaloosa, they will bring with them a defense that is as good as those we saw in October, if not better.

And unfortunately, injuries continue to take a toll on the Tide. Colin Peek looks to either miss this game or play nowhere near 100%, and that's a very big loss for the Tide. Michael Williams will likely play better than he did two weeks ago against Tennessee because he will be more prepared, but Peek is a critical element of our offense, and unfortunately Williams is an imperfect substitute.

Defensively, the weakness for LSU starts up front at the line of scrimmage. Shocking as though that may be -- I imagine I need remind no one that LSU's defensive line ate us for dinner from 2003-2007 -- it is nevertheless true. To be sure, it's certainly not a bad group, but it isn't a dominating one and it is not up to the level that we have come to expect the past several years out of LSU. Inside, seniors Al Woods and Charles Alexander are good players that any team would love to have, but they probably aren't to the level that we saw the past several years out of LSU with Kyle Williams and Glenn Dorsey. Likewise, the rotation isn't what it has been in previous years in terms of quality depth.

The real weakness for LSU on the defensive line largely comes outside at end. Senior Rahim Alem has been a bit of a disappointment this year. He was always a liability against the run -- which is why, despite leading the SEC in sacks in 2008, he wasn't a starter -- but he hasn't rushed the passer as well this year, generating only three sacks in the first eight games (only one of which came in conference play, and that was against Vandy). Opposite Alem, Lazarius Levingston hasn't exactly played poorly, but he hasn't really made an impact either. He has yet to generate a sack, and only has ten tackles on the year. Making matters worse, they are somewhat undersized, and mixed with their lack of a consistent pass rush, that generally explains why LSU's run defense has been somewhat middling, and also explains why they are at the bottom of the SEC in sacks.

Unfortunately, the rest of the LSU defense is significantly better. The linebacker corps struggled greatly in 2008, but they have made tremendous strides in 2009 under new defensive coordinator John Chavis. There is not one standout at linebacker like Alabama has with someone like Rolando McClain -- or had with Dont'a Hightower -- but it's a good group that gets the job done. Perry Riley, Kelvin Sheppard, Harry Coleman, and Jacob Cutrera are all good football players, and they are in many ways unique players that give Chavis a lot of options. Riley is a big, physical player who excels against against the run, and Coleman's past as a former safety makes him a very versatile player, particularly in passing situations. Kelvin Sheppard is probably the best all-around player of the bunch, and while Cutrera isn't a standout, he's a senior who can really play whatever position they need off the bench. Again, it's not a group that has the one rockstar standout like you find with a guy like Rolando McClain or Brandon Spikes, but it's a good group of players that have produced at a high level for John Chavis.

The real strength of the LSU defense, however, comes in the defensive backfield, where the Bayou Bengals have an absolutely ridiculous collection of talent. Just look at the names and their recruiting hype... Chad Jones, #1 safety prospect in the country in 2007. Jai Eugene, #1 cornerback prospect in the country in 2006. Patrick Peterson, #1 cornerback prospect in the country in 2007. And guys like Chris Hawkins, Brandon Taylor, Karnell Hatcher, Ron Brooks, and Danny McCray? Yeah, they were generally "only" four-star recruits who could have had pretty much their pick of any school in the country.

Not surprising given that collection of talent, LSU's defensive backfield has led the way. Patrick Peterson is the best cornerback in the conference now that Kentucky's Trevard Lindley is slowed by an ankle injury, and Chad Jones is every bit as good of a safety as Eric Berry. And, obviously, the rest aren't too shabby. These guys have been the key for the LSU defense this year. The defensive line has struggled and frankly been very bad in terms of rushing the passer, but the back end has covered so well that LSU still fields one of the best pass defenses in the country.

Coach Saban and company have talked about stretching the field vertically this weekend, and that is almost certainly something that we will have to do in order to breathe life back into our deceased offense. LSU does not have the great run defense that they have sported in years past, but it's far from a bad unit, and you can rest assured that they will be able to limit Alabama's running game well enough to force the Tide to do something in the passing game in order to score a lot of points. Keep in mind that, as I mentioned in the Radio Hour, if you are unable to throw the football, then defensively you don't need to stop the run, you only need to somewhat limit the run. In other words, you just have to make sure that the opposing offense doesn't run it down your throats to the tune of 250+ rushing yards. Rest assured, LSU is likely more than good enough to do that up front.

Offensively, Alabama faces the same dilemma that it largely faced against Tennessee. Greg McElroy and the passing attack have struggled to move the football, and the opposing defense will look to limit Ingram and company and force McElroy and the wide receiver corps to beat them. Unless we can be more consistent and explosive in the passing game, the end result looks to be very similar to what it was against Tennessee.

Alabama Defense v. LSU Offense

For all of the strength of the LSU defense, the LSU offense hasn't been anywhere near as good, and if you look closely this is a group that ranks near the bottom of the country in most statistical categories.

At the skill positions, at least, this is an extremely dangerous offense. Without doubt the LSU wide receiver corps is easily the most talented that the Tide will face all season, and literally every single LSU wide receiver that will touch the football this Saturday will be a truly elite athlete in every sense of the phrase. Brandon LaFell will be a first-day draft pick next April, and both Terrance Toliver and Reuben Randle are physically impressive players who were the #1 wide receiver prospects in the country when they came out of high school. Richard Dickson is a good tight end in his own right, and he too will probably play on Sunday. Furthermore, Charles Scott is also a future NFL player, and while Keiland Williams never really lived up to his five-star status when he signed with the Tigers in 2006, he's still a fine player in his own right. And finally, while Russell Shepard and Trindon Holliday are somewhat of one-trick ponies, both have such ungodly speed and athleticism that they can present major challenges to a defense once they get the ball in their hands. Bottom line, struggles or not, if you look at the quality at talent at the skill positions for LSU, you would swear this is an elite offense.

The real problem with LSU offensively has been in the trenches and, perhaps not surprisingly, at the quarterback position. Struggles in those two areas have largely grounded the LSU offensive attack, and have turned an offense that should be high-powered based solely on its skill position talent into a unit that has greatly struggled to move the football and score points.

Ciron Black at left tackle for the Bayou Bengals is a four-year starter who will likely be a first round NFL draft choice next April, and at right tackle Joseph Barksdale -- a five-star recruit in 2007 -- is one of the best right tackles in the SEC. Unfortunately for the Tigers, however, the performance of the centers and guards has dipped significantly. The loss of starting left guard Herman Johnson and starting center Brett Helms have been felt all season, and the replacements just aren't in the same league right now. Josh Dworaczyk took over for Johnson, and the replacement starter for the gargantuan comes in at barely 280 pounds. Likewise, sophomore T-Bob Hebert hasn't necessarily been bad, but again he's just not in the same league as Helms right now. Right guard Lyle Hitt looked solid enough when sandwiched between Helms and Barksdale, but he too has seen his performance dip by having to take on greater responsibilities with Hebert alongside him. As a whole, the performance of the center and the guards just hasn't been anywhere what it was a year ago.

The struggles on the interior offensive line have effectively proven fatal to the LSU rushing attack. I've long said that the biggest impact on your rushing attack comes from the play of your center and your guards, and 2009 Tigers would prove to be a fine case study in that regard. The tackles are there, as are the backs, but LSU has struggled on the interior in the running game, and that has largely killed their rushing attack. The once potent Scott and Williams are averaging only about 4.8 yards per carry now, and prior to facing Tulane and their god awful run defense they were barely averaging 4.0 yards per carry.

The other problem for LSU offensively is quarterback Jordan Jefferson. While clearly an intriguing prospect with a great upside -- Jefferson has a good frame, a big arm, and is a legitimate dual-threat -- Jefferson is really playing out of necessity right now, and it shows. Truth be told, if the LSU coaching staff really had their druthers, Jefferson would probably be riding the pine this year while watching fifth-year senior Ryan Perrilloux run the Tiger offense, but alas the Football Gods would not cooperate. As a result, Jefferson has been forced to make the best of a bad situation, and he has clearly had his growing pains. He holds onto the ball entirely too long which creates a lot of sacks -- which explains why LSU is near the bottom of the conference in sacks allowed despite having the best tackle combo in the league -- often struggles to work through his progression, and does struggle at times to get the ball to his talented wide receivers. Combined, this has largely grounded what should otherwise be an explosive passing attack.

In all fairness, though, what Jefferson has done is manage the game and not get his Tigers beat. For all of the criticisms that you can make regarding his performance to date, he has protected the football, which is clearly priority number one for the LSU coaching staff. Jefferson has thrown a mere four interceptions this year on roughly 200 passing attempts, and has allowed the LSU defense to lead them to victory in close games. If nothing else, that is far more than could ever be said for the man that Jefferson replaced.

Defensively, Alabama brings the attack that you all know so well, and there will probably be little changes this week. Charles Scott and Keiland Williams had great success running the football against us a year ago, but with a healthy Terrence Cody this time around, plus Herman Johnson and Brett Helms playing on Sunday, the Tide ought to shut down the LSU rushing attack. If Charles Scott and company have a good deal of success come Saturday, it will legitimately come as a bit of a surprise.

The real key for the Alabama defense will be containing big plays in the passing game. For lack of a better way of putting it, the skill position players for LSU are unreal good, and they will stretch us to the absolute maximum this weekend. Our defensive backfield, collectively, will have to play the game of their lives this weekend, and to make matters even more worrisome we will also have to make sure that Russell Shepard or Trindon Holliday also don't beat us with a long run out of the backfield. Given the way we have struggled offensively the past several weeks, even giving up only one or two really long plays can easily be the difference between victory and defeat, and unless the offense improve, our defense has effectively zero margin of error.

Going a long way towards preventing those big plays to the skill position players will be effectively rushing the passer. Jefferson isn't a world-beater at quarterback, but his receivers sure as hell are, and he has the arm to make all of the throws. If Jefferson consistently has time to throw the football, we're in big trouble defensively. The LSU skill position players are simply too good to expect any defensive backfield to keep covered for any real length of time.

Putting It All Together

All in all, these two teams match up closely. If the Alabama offense were producing like it did earlier in the year, the Tide could be reasonably expected to win this game with relative ease, but with our offensive struggles of the past month and no definite sign of improvement, this game figures to be a close one that goes right down to the wire. Unless we can significantly improve offensively, the LSU defense is good enough to keep our offensive attack at bay, and while the LSU offense probably won't score a lot of points against our defense, they clearly have another skill position talent on the outside to make a few big plays to squeak out a close victory in a low-scoring game

And do look for this game to be a close, low-scoring game, no two ways about that. Neither team looks to score that many points, and expect the coaching staffs of the respective teams to play accordingly. LSU almost lost to the Tide in 2007 when they chose to kick to Javier Arenas late, and their loss last year was fueled by a slew of costly turnovers. Expect Les Miles and company to avoid both this weekend with a struggling Alabama offense. LSU will kick the football away from Arenas, and play safe on offense so that -- even if they don't score a lot of points in their own right -- they won't take the risks that could result in several costly turnovers. We're struggling greatly on the offensive side of the ball, and when facing a team of that nature you make sure that you do not allow cheap points. Expect LSU to force the Tide's offense to consistently move the ball 60+ yards to get points.

For Alabama, the path to victory is clearly in the trenches. We hold a fairly significant advantage in both match-ups at the line of scrimmage, and there is where we must win this football game. We must stop the run defensively and rush Jefferson, and offensively establish the running game and make like easy for McElroy and the Alabama passing attack. If we can do that, we win this football game. On the other hand, if LSU can fight us to an effective draw in the trenches, then this game will be decided by the skill position players, and that's a losing proposition for us. That's not to say we absolutely cannot win a game of that nature, but LSU does have more raw talent at the skill positions than we do, and that is a game that will clearly favor the Bayou Bengals. Again, our path to victory lies in the trenches. We have to dominate this game at the line of scrimmage. Period.

One way or the other, look for this to be an absolutely brutal game. The stakes are extremely high for both LSU and Alabama, and their respective players will perform accordingly. Les Miles, regardless of whether or not it is fair, will forever be judged relative to Nick Saban, something that is clearly not lost on Miles or his team. This is their biggest game of the year, and clearly the biggest game of the year for their fan base as well. Truth be told, they have been preparing for this game for two weeks now. Making matters more interesting, this game determines the SEC West, LSU is still technically alive in the national championship race, and they are clearly looking to make a definitive showing that they are still at their 2003-2007 form. On the other sideline, Alabama has been staring this one down for two weeks. We control our own destiny in the national championship race, and we know full well that this is now effectively a one-game season. If we want to get to where we want to go, we all realize that we must directly go through LSU. And, also, don't think for one second that it is lost on our team that they need to win this game in the trenches. Expect these two teams to line up and wage absolute war. There will be blood.

Hope for the best.

Watching the Offensive Line

Richard Pittman — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 12:22:20 -0000

More photos » by Rogelio V. Solis - AP

Enjoy it for now, but then we have to get a lot better. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

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Starting at 5:15am, I started watching the game again. I didn't watch the defense. I didn't watch the horrid special teams play. OK, that's not entirely true. I watched the goal line stand again, and I watched Chad Jones' punt return. But I really paid attention to our offensive plays, often rewinding them several times to see what was happening on the offensive line, and in particular why Mississippi State defenders kept making plays around or behind the line of scrimmage.

The problem is surprisingly difficult to diagnose. You can't really point to one player or one type of play that gave us problems. I think the problems can, however, be broken down to a couple categories:

1. There's just a pileup at the line of scrimmage. This happened surprisingly often. You can't point to any particular block that wasn't held or any particular player who made (or failed to make) a play. Everyone puts a helmet on someone, but the play blows up simply because the running back runs into a mass of bodies where the line of scrimmage was. I read an suggestion on a message board that LSU's linemen play with too narrow splits, and this contributes to problems finding holes in the middle of the field. After all, to make a hole, there needs to be neither a defensive nor an offensive player there. Unfortunately, I am not knowledgeable enough about offensive line play to evaluate that suggestion, but it works as a hypothesis in that it seems to explain the results we see and is falsifiable (widen the splits and see what happens).

2. Lineman breaks downfield and then the tackle is made in the spot he vacated. This is the one I have a really hard time understanding. I saw Josh Dworaczyk and Lyle Hitt both break downfield to get a block on a safety only to see the runner head right to the spot one or the other of them had left. I know a little bit about zone blocking, and I know that sometimes it is a lineman's duty to not worry so much about the lineman and instead get out to the second level, but it is very difficult for me to believe that this is the case when the runner is supposed to run towards his spot on the line.

In a zone blocking scheme, a lineman does not block a "man". He blocks a "lane", and if there's no one in that lane when you break off the snap, you go to the next level and see if there's a man there. You may chip or help your neighboring lineman for a split second, but your primary job when there is not a man at the line in your zone is to press forward and find a man in your path to block. But to release downfield only to find that someone has filled your gap and made the tackle unblocked right in the spot you started the play? That can't be right. Here, it is hard to say if this is an execution problem or a coaching problem. Was the lineman supposed to stay home and block the guy who ended up in his hole? Or was someone else supposed to get him? Or did we do something that tipped off the play and signaled someone to jump into the lane after the lineman ran past? Whatever it is, this happens way too much, as I've seen it in previous games too.

3. Linebacker or safety comes off the edge unblocked. Here I am talking about a play in which everyone makes a block, but there is a man unaccounted for on the outside who diagnoses the play, and gets into the backfield untouched to make a tackle. This happened on a couple big 3rd down plays, once towards the end of the first half when Jefferson pitched left to Keiland Williams on 3rd and 1, and he had nowhere to go because a linebacker came off of Ciron Black's edge and made the tackle 4 yards in the backfield. It happened on a 3rd down play in the 3rd quarter when Jefferson ran a little bootleg pass to Richard Dickson on 3rd and 2 (after 2nd and 1 lost a yard, btw), and the end or linebacker on the roll side didn't bite and didn't hesitate for even 1/2 second. Instead he went right at the spot where Jefferson was going to end up and got in his face, forcing a bad throw and another punt. Two plays in which the outside defender seemed to know exactly where the play was going and went right to the spot without being touched and made a play. Again, it's hard to diagnose where the problem was. In both cases, there was no attempt to block the man, which means either that he was not supposed to be blocked, or that the lineman in question (Black on the first, Barksdale on the second) mistakenly failed to block him. Or it could mean that Jefferson was supposed to check out of the play because there would be an unblocked man right where the play was going.

4. Lineman simply fails to hold a block. This is the easiest to spot and diagnose. Sometimes, the offensive lineman makes a block, or attempts to make a block, and just can't do it. I saw this happen to T-Bob Hebert, Josh Dworaczyk, and Joseph Barksdale more than one time each. I was also surprised at how often Richard Dickson got beat by a defender. Dickson started out his career at LSU as a blocking tight end, but if yesterday's game was any indication, he may have regressed as a blocker since his freshman season. We saw a good bit of Deangelo Peterson at tight end this game, and he has a ways to go as a blocker too. On one of Russell Shepard's runs, Peterson's spot was attacked by two Bulldog defenders and forced Peterson to make a choice of which to block and which to allow to go free. He hesitated and ended up letting both of them go. No one was immune to it, but Barksdale really seemed to get beat a good bit, and was on one occasion pushed back into Jordan Jefferson, forcing him to rush a throw.

Lyle Hitt gets a lot of criticism on the message boards, but I really did not see him get flat-out beat very much, though on a 3rd and goal option play in the second quarter, it seemed the entire right side of the offense got beat, including Hitt, Dickson, and fullback Charles Scott. Everyone seems to be singling out Hitt as a potential area to make a change, but he may have actually been our best lineman yesterday. I will confess that when I was ruminating on this game last night and early this morning, I was thinking of ways to either replace Hitt or move him to somewhere else, but after watching the game again I have cooled to that plan.

Barksdale was beaten a lot, and both of the new starters were beaten a lot. Josh Dworaczyk gets pushed into the backfield way too often. T-Bob Hebert loses him man at times. Even Ciron Black was not really All-SEC material yesterday.

The problem here is that if you're looking to make a personnel change, it is hard to figure out who to change. No one player seems to be the problem. Maybe Barksdale would benefit from a move to the inside, letting Chris Faulk or Greg Shaw have a chance at right tackle. But do you move Barksdale to right guard or left guard? Right now, I would say move him to left guard and see if that fixes the problems we're having on that side. Maybe Alex Hurst needs a chance to play at a guard spot, as he receives rave reviews from observers (then again, so did Dworaczyk). Could P.J. Lonergan be an improvement at center over T-Bob?

I think right now that a change, any change at all, may be beneficial, in that it could spark greater effort. It could make this a nastier offensive line to face.

Les Miles Diagnoses, Attempts to Fix, the Problems

Richard Pittman — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 11:34:31 -0000

More photos » by Bill Haber - AP

We aren't really sure what Joseph Barksdale (78) and Lyle Hitt (65) are supposed to be celebrating. (AP Photo/Bill Haber)

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If there are three problems on this LSU team right now, I think we could categorize them as, in order from most concerning to least: a) problems on the offensive line, b) problems at quarterback, and c) problems at defensive line.

I really think the problems at quarterback will work themselves out as Jefferson gets more experienced and comfortable. The question is whether that process will culminate this year or next. Furthermore, I think there is little that Les Miles and the rest of the coaches can do to help that situation along other than help Jordan Jefferson by putting him in positions to succeed. I.e., by not telegraphing a ton of screen passes all the time. We'll see how that goes.

The problems we really need to talk about, though, are the problems on the offensive line and on the defensive line. My personal opinion is that the defensive line has played reasonably well in the last two games, which is why this is not one of the two biggest problems. We have had numerous injuries, however, and that's why it's on the list.

The story of LSU's depth problems on the defensive line, and at defensive tackle in particular, starts with recruiting and subsequent position changes or attrition. LSU has recruiting literally tons of defensive linemen in the last 5 years, starting with Lyle Hitt in 2002 and continuing to the 2009 class when we signed a very large number of defensive linemen. Here is a list of those defensive linemen who are no playing defensive line for LSU: Lyle Hitt (position change), Ricky Jean-Francois (declared for NFL), Joseph Barksdale (position change), Kentravis Aubrey (injuries), Sidell Corley (transfer), Will Blackwell (position change), Cordian Hagans (position change).

What all the moves from defensive line over to offensive line have done to our offensive line is a story for another day.

The second part of the story of why we are having depth problems at defensive line is the story of redshirting. Redshirting is, of course, the practice of not putting a player in the game for an entire season and keeping his year of eligibility. On the whole, the practice is down in college football as more and more coaches rely heavily on freshmen. Les Miles has been somewhat old school on this topic, redshirting as many new players as possible.

So far this year, the following true freshmen have played: Defensive tackle Josh Downs, cornerback Morris Claiborne, wide receiver Reuben Randle, and quarterback Russell Shepard. If there have been more, I did not see them. Some very heralded recruits appear to be headed to a redshirt, including 5-star recruits Chris Davenport and Michael Ford as well as other players who were expected to contribute immediately, like fullback Dominique Allen, defensive linemen Michael Brockers and Sam Montgomery, linebacker Barkevious Mingo, offensive tackle Chris Faulk, and safety Craig Loston (whose rumored injury may be the culprit here).

The football program can only have 85 scholarship players at a time. If we are committed to steadfastly refusing to play 20 or more of them, you can see where this can wreak havoc on your depth. Having about 1/4 of your scholarship players voluntarily unavailable leaves you vulnerable.

In particular, it leaves you vulnerable to injuries, and this is what is delivering the killing blow to our defensive line depth. Starting defensive end Lazarius Levingston ("Pep", to you) continues to be out with a leg injury. JUCO transfer Akiem Hicks has yet to play this season due to a variety of ailments, and the rumor is this problem may persist. And then last Saturday towards the end of a blowout win, true freshman Josh Downs left the game with a leg injury, the severity of which is a closely guarded secret

Les Miles was trying to get through the season using only 4 scholarship defensive tackles: veterans Charles Alexander, Al Woods, and Drake Nevis, plus true freshman Downs. If Hicks can come back, he would have been the 5th. I'm not sure this was ever a smart plan, especially considering Charles Alexander's extensive history of being unable to stay healthy. Alexander's been excellent so far this year, and has stayed healthy as far as we know, but you just can't count on that to last. Asking those 4 to take all the snaps seems like it's inviting injuries, as those players wear down.

Anyway, Les Miles has decided to move true freshman defensive end Michael Brockers, who at 6'6" 285# certainly has the size to play inside, over to defensive tackle and is prepared to pull the redshirt off of him. This has been reported at the premium sites, but I don't feel bad about repeating it here because it was pasted right on the freely available front page of Tigerbait.com yesterday.

He is bound and determined, I guess, to keep the redshirt on Chris Davenport, who is a natural defensive tackle. I don't have a problem with moving Brockers inside. The man is a giant and got rave reviews all through pre-season, and was expected to contribute this year as a result. If the need is on the inside rather than on the outside, so be it.

The most serious concern remains the offensive line, which simply has not played well. The good news is that it appears everyone is aware of that. Numerous stories have come out recently where players are acknowledging that the offense is sputtering. Here is Les Miles' take:

"Offensively, here I am: I’ve come off the game and I’m mad," Miles said. "I didn’t think we rushed the football well enough. I always like to rush the football. We rushed for 175 yards. I’m sitting there going, ‘Wow, when did we do that? Was I there? ’"

There’s something unsettled, uncertain, about the team that isn’t reflected on the stat sheet or the scoreboard. The problem is one of maximizing production. A problem of execution, not scheme or imagination. It’s as if a chef has every ingredient on hand but hasn’t yet struck the proper mix, Miles said.

"I think we’re looking for the best recipe, but I don’t know that we’ve found it just yet," he said. "I don’t think change is necessary, I think it’s more efficient and better."

I think we've all come to accept that Les Miles is not the smoothest guy in the room, and these quotes won't change that perception, but at least he agrees with us that there is a problem and is willing to acknowledge it publicly. This is a sharp change from last year's issues with the defensive schemes, which Les Miles to this day has refused to criticize, even after letting both defensive coordinators responsible go.

There are also rumors that Miles attended the offensive line unit meeting early in the week and let the group have it. It's a start. At least he is not blind to the problem. Let's see if we can fix it now.

LSU 31 - UL-Lafayette 3: Second Thoughts

Richard Pittman — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 12:44:09 -0000

More photos » by Bill Haber - AP

2 months ago: LSU defensive tackle Josh Downs (77) limps off the field at the end of the LSU-Louisiana-Lafayette game in an NCAA college football game in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009. Downs injured his knee near the end of the game which LSU won 31-3. (AP Photo/Bill Haber)

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One of the big stories coming out of last night's game is the injury situation. Jordan Jefferson came out of the game with some sort of leg problem. Josh Downs left the game with a knee problem, and you can see the ice on his knee on the picture to the left. It is not clear that either of these are serious. Jefferson may have simply had a cramp, and while he only had to stay out for one play, we scored a touchdown on that play and it was the last time our offense touched the ball. Downs, at least, is walking off the field on his own, which suggests it's probably not one of those dreaded ligament tears.

Richard Dickson is another matter. After making 3 catches early in the game, he left with what appeared from the television viewpoint to be some kind of a neck problem. He did not return to the game. I have been unable to find any indication of what his injury was or how serious it is. On a team without a lot of established weapons in the passing game, it would be a real blow if Dickson was seriously hurt.

Anyway, we have seen a torrent of negativity on the interwebs about this LSU team in the wake of this win, which was in the wake of insufficiently (to some) impressive wins against University of Washington and Vandy. And I'm not just talking about our own comment section. The headlines over at the Times-Picayune are "LSU Tigers Still Don't Look the Part against Louisiana-Lafayette", "LSU's Jordan Jefferson Still a Work in Progress", "LSU Playcalling Remains Quirky", and "LSU: A Curious Team Thus Far".

It's not exactly a sick feeling out there. It's just a feeling that this team is leaving people wanting more. That's fair, and I agree that this team is not where we want it. The offensive line should be dominating teams like this and is not doing so. Jordan Jefferson misses open receivers at times. The defense is much improved from the Washington game to now, but still gives up the occasional long, methodical drive or big 3rd down conversion.

With that out there, I want to temper that attitude. While we are not where we need to be, I do not think we are all that far from where that place. Last night, we used more of a medium-field passing game, which I am convinced right now is the way for us to open up the running game. Jefferson missed a couple of deep receivers again, but the throws to Dickson and the second touchdown pass to Lafell were exactly the sorts of passes we weren't seeing enough in previous games.

Getting Reuben Randle involved (I know that name is misspelled, but SBNation's database has it misspelled, so I'm deliberately messing it up so that it will automatically link) could also be a big help in that midfield passing game. He got the ball thrown his way for the first time in his career tonight, and made one catch on two tries. He almost came down with a deep ball in the face of really good coverage, and it would have been a spectacular play.

This is not a perfect team, but I see no reason to depair of our chances, at least not yet. The defense was outstanding again last night, creating turnovers and negative plays. Yes, ULL made a few nice plays on offense, but teams do that at times even when they're overmatched. The difference between this game anda huge blowout was the fact that we didn't get quick scores, except for the Holliday touchdown. We have a little ways to go, but we see no indication yet of the intense problems we saw defensively last year or of the interception problem that put us in bad positions constantly.

I watched the game again (thank you TIVO for letting me watch a full game in an hour while eating breakfast) and watched the line play. I felt better after watching it on replay. I thought both lines played well, better than I thought watching it live. In particular, I think the defensive line played very well. ULL was only effective running the ball when they ran misdirection plays, screens, and options where they disguised who had the ball. Any time they lined up and ran at us, we stuffed them exactly how you would expect a superior team to stuff an inferior team.

We will have to work out those problems on misdirections and deceptive plays, however. In particular, Chancey Aghayere got burned a couple times biting on a fake or rushing in on a screen. Then again, he also completely blew up a screen on ULL's first possession by staying home and getting between the QB and the receiver, forcing a bad throw. Aghayere's a young player still, and if you're going to make a mistake, the mistake I can most easily live with is the mistake of running too hard towards the ball.

On the offensive side of the line, we're still trying to figure out why we can't get Charles Scott going. We have two new starting offensive linemen, both the center and the left guard. I am far from an expert on evaluating line play, but I was keeping a close eye on that part of the line and did not see a big problem there. In fact, in my observation, when I could diagnose exactly where someone came from to blow up a play, it was usually coming from the left side right side of our line.

To cite one example, when Charles Scott was stopped on a 4th and short, the tackler came from off the right tackle. It appeared to be a standup blitzing linebacker coming in. Joseph Barksdale crashed inside and let the linebacker into the backfield untouched. He either thought it was someone else's assignment (and for all I know, it could have been), or his assignment was to assume he could not catch up to a run going to the left side and let him go. In either event, let him go Barksdale did. No one else picked him up and he came across the backfield to hit Charles Scott behind the line of scrimmage and stop the play for no gain.

To cite a second example, one another running play I saw, Lyle Hitt executed a typical zone-blocking technique of hitting the first level defender only for a split second and then disengage to track down a second-level defender to block. The problem occurred when the first-level defender then disrupted the play. I simply don't know enough to evaluate exactly what Hitt was supposed to do or how that play was supposed to account for the first-level defender.

The good news on the line is that, unlike last week, Jordan Jefferson was not running for his life on every pass play.

Overall the offense played much better than it played against Vandy. We did not have long stretches of ineffective play like we've seen in our previous two games. It would be great to see more big plays, but at least we consistently moved the ball forward last night. That's progress. We didn't roll all over them, but were the superior team and we steadily moved the scoreboard in our favor all game. At no point was ULL really in this game and I'm not sure what else we should really expect.

2009 SEC West Preview & Predictions

outsidethesidelines — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

In attempting to predict the SEC last year, I simply went through each member school's schedule and made definitive picks, game-by-game, and then compiled everything at the end to determine the overall standings and the division champions. For the 2009 season, however, I decided to scrap that format. As appealing as picking individual games can be simply because of its definitive nature, in many ways it is just a waste of time because there is just entirely too much random chance involved in each particular game, and on the whole it's far better to simply view the season in its entirety instead of trying to dissect its individual components from the outset.

To that end, this year I'm going to focus more on teams as a whole and make final predictions from there, thus omitting the individual game predictions. Moreover, unlike last year where I predicted the entire SEC, this year I'm going to focus only on the SEC West. My thought is that unless the terrorists successfully carry out jihad against Gainesville, the Gators are going to win the East by a mile, and frankly if you aren't a fan of one of the other five SEC Eastern Division members, who really cares what order they go in two through six? Thus, here goes my SEC West preview and predictions for 2009:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Coming into the season as the prohibitive favorites for the first time in ages, a quick look reveals why the prognosticators have been so high on the Tide. This is the most talented team we've seen in Tuscaloosa in ages, and the defensive side of the ball should probably be stronger than any defense the Tide has fielded since 1992. With the strength of the front seven -- a front seven that could legitimately feature three All-American candidates -- 'Bama should once again field an elite run defense. The loss of Rashad Johnson won't help things, but 'Bama led the SEC in conference play last year in pass efficiency defense, and by returning every other member of the two-deep rotation in the defensive backfield -- not to mention additions from Dre Kirkpatrick and Burton Scott -- a drop-off in performance is unlikely. Furthermore, things could even better, because for the first team since 2002, Alabama looks to have the pieces in place to at least be a solid pass rushing team, and even a solid, consistent pass rush would work wonders for the overall pass defense given the quality of defensive backs the Tide has.

The offense, too, has more than its fair share of strengths. Mike Johnson is one of the best guards in the country, and Colin Peek will be one of the conference's upper echelon tight ends if he can stay relatively healthy. Of course there is Julio Jones, already probably the greatest pure wide receiver in the history of Alabama football, but aside from him the rest of the receiving corps is deep with many talented playmakers in the fold. Likewise, the backfield is loaded with elite talent including the likes of Mark Ingram, Roy Upchurch, Trent Richardson, and others. And as an additional matter, quality depth on both sides of the ball is better than we have in years in Tuscaloosa.

With that glowing overview in mind, however, this is far from a flawless team. Greg McElroy has made tremendous amounts of progress in the past 18 months, and he has done effectively all that the coaching staff has asked him to do until this point. I think 'Bama fans can be as confident as can reasonably be expected with him under center, but until you step under center against a hostile defense in a real, live situation, frankly you can never really know what to expect. I think it's fair to say that the reasonable expectation for McElroy right now is that he will provide solid play at the quarterback position, but that is not to say anyone should be overly shocked if he suddenly turned into a liability.

The real concern, though, is the offensive line. The ideal situation for the Tide, of course, is to have the line mow over opponents like last year, dominating the game and turning McElroy into a game manager. Unfortunately, there's no such guarantee of that. The official depth chart will not be released until next week, but that notwithstanding, the starting five is this, going left to right: James Carpenter, Mike Johnson, William Vlachos, Barrett Jones, and Drew Davis. And I'll be frank, though quality depth is much improved, I think we should be a bit concerned with this group. Barrett Jones may play well at right guard (and I figure he is at least decent), but his presence is a major surprise, and we won't be able to give Drew Davis near the help from backs and tight ends that we did a year ago without having Andre Smith locking down the other side. Mike Johnson should do well again, but while James Carpenter and William Vlachos look to be solid players, a step down in performance from what we had a year ago at those positions is probably to be expected. As a whole, I don't think you have to worry about the line being bad -- far from it, I think the line should be pretty good -- but by the same token, I think we'll struggle somewhat in pass protection this year (as we did last year), and in the running game this line probably won't be able to consistently annihilate opponent's at the point of attack like it's predecessor did a year ago. That translates into putting more pressure on McElroy and forcing him to make more plays in the passing game, all of which could turn relatively easy wins into close games, and close wins into close losses.

Finally, special teams remains a legitimate concern for the Tide. Our coverage units should do really well simply because the great athletes we will be able to put on special teams, but the rest remains a concern. There is no doubting that Javier Arenas is an elite returner who will generate his fair share of big plays, but his decision making ability on punt returns is highly questionable at best, and many times last year he gave the opposition points on turnovers as a result of his poor decision making. Moreover, Leigh Tiffin will probably remain highly inconsistent at best (even when he is healthy), and frankly we do not want to see him trotting on the field with the game on the line. Likewise, he doesn't routinely get great distance and / or hang time on his kick-offs, another concern. Along those same lines, P.J. Fitzgerald at punter is a concern as well. He has slowly progressed and improved in his time at Alabama, but he's a small kid with an average-at-best leg, so he has most likely reached his peak. The smart money is clearly on yet another year in which Fitzgerald cannot produce great distance or hang time on his punts. As a result, despite some likely good coverage units and big plays from Javier Arenas, special teams isn't likely to be a strength for the Tide in 2009, and may in fact even be a liability.

Fortunately for Alabama the schedule does set up nicely. The opener against Virginia Tech will be a tough one -- and a loss there, at the very least, likely eliminates the Tide from BCS bowl contention (unless they can run the table from there) -- but a win there and it's relatively easily sledding until the road trip to Oxford the second week of October. Likewise, even after the Rebels, Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina, and UT-Chattanooga remain on the schedule, all four of which should be wins. An upset loss here and there wouldn't be a shock, but the defense and the coaching is good enough to guarantee at least nine wins barring either a complete meltdown by either McElroy, or a terrible run of injury luck.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Bobby Petrino's debut campaign in Fayetteville has about as many obstacles as expected, but things seemingly look much better for year two. It's clear that Petrino and company are still rebuilding the Razorbacks, but this is a much better squad than what we faced last year in Fayetteville, and all of those teams that got an easy win over the Hogs last year won't be so lucky in 2009.

The biggest single addition for Arkansas comes at the quarterback position. The Hogs spent most of last year with Casey and Nathan Dick at quarterback, and suffered the consquences thereof. Neither of the two were legitimate SEC caliber players, but all of that changes this year with the arrival of the gargantuan Ryan Mallett. A former five-star recruit from Texarkana, Mallett played as a freshman for Michigan before transferring to Fayetteville after the arrival of Rich Rodriguez. Mallett will start in 2009 for the Hogs, and in doing so he will not only be a major upgrade over both of the Dick sisters, but he'll have the strongest arm of any SEC quarterback. The reasonable expectation at this point is that Mallett will be one of the conference's top quarterbacks.

And, even aside from Mallett, there are a lot of other promising players at the skill positions for the Hogs. Tight end D.J. Williams is probably the best that the conference has to offer, and scatback Michael Smith -- who led the SEC in all purpose yardage last year -- is probably the best back you've never heard of. He's small, but he has great speed and agility, he's surprisingly effective as an inside returner, and he's much more durable than you would expect given his small frame. Likewise, with Dennis Johnson, De'Anthony Curtis, Broderick Green, and Ronnie Wingo rounding out the rest of the backfield, it's a highly talented group. Moreover, while the wide receiver corps doesn't really feature any truly great playmaker, it's a deep, solid group of guys who have shown that they can get the job done.

The real concern on the offensive side of the ball is the line. Three starters return from a year ago, and a fourth starter (Mitch Petrus) is actually a player who started in 2007. Unfortunately for the Hogs, though, All-American center Jonathon Luigs is gone, and in general the returning starters are the ones who were weak links a year ago. The tackles, in particular, Ray Dominguez and DeMarcus Love, have struggled with edge rushers, and if anything both of those guys probably should be playing inside at guard. All in all, it's just a bit of a concern for the Hogs. If these guys can consistently keep Mallett upright, the Hogs look to have a very potent offense, and one that could give even the best defenses legitimate trouble. On the other hand, a struggling offensive line will almost certainly slow what must be the unit that carries the Hogs to victory in 2009.

The defense, too, remains a major concern. The Hogs struggled defensively in 2007, and were even worse last year. In 2008 they were dead last in the conference in run defense, and the pass defense wasn't much better. Some steps may be made in the right direction in 2009 -- a couple of JUCO transfers in the defensive backfield should help, plus most of the defensive line returns -- but they still have a lot of issues, and it's unlikely that the Hogs will be able to move out of the cellar in most defensive categories in 2009.

All in all, the Hogs are a team that is clearly moving in the right direction, and they will be a dangerous team in 2009. Last year they knocked off LSU, Auburn, and almost beat Ole Miss. Rest assured they will get a couple of big-name upsets this year as well. Though sheer strength of schedule will dictate a few more roadblocks for the Hogs in 2009 -- five teams on their schedule are currently ranked in the AP top 15 -- this is a dangerous team, and one that could really surprise a lot of people if the defense can show some signs of life.

Auburn Tigers

Following their worst season in a decade, Auburn made a different kind of splash hire by bringing in former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik. Though near suicidal upon first hearing the news, most Auburn fans are now predictably bathing in the Kool-Aid, but looking at the Tigers in an objective light reveals that their fan base probably had it right to start with. On the whole, it's nearly impossible to believe their fall from grace in recent years. After going a combined 34-5 from 2004-2006, Auburn now finds itself with scholarship levels reminiscent of a program undergoing major NCAA sanctions, and possessing a depth chart paper thin in terms of both elite talent and quality depth. Things are so bad that almost any true freshman -- though they came from a highly unimpressive recruiting class -- healthy enough to play will be required do so in 2009, and a few walk-ons will be expected to contribute as well. From the outset, the mere fact that the athletic director is publicly trying to cool expectations for the program for the next couple of years ought to tell you all you need to know about their future prospects.

Chris Todd surprised many when he won the starting quarterback job all of a week into Fall camp, but despite a surgically repaired throwing shoulder, Todd's starting job probably has more to do with the shortcomings of the other candidates than it does his own skills. Neil Caudle is a bust now, as is Kodi Burns, and they are going to try to run some Wildcat-type stuff with Burns at the helm. But, of course, no one really knows what to expect of the newfangled Auburn offense. It's going to be a spread offense, but apparently one that is run-heavy, and it's also going to be a hurry-up offense to boot. And yes that's a major break from offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn's track record, and yes they are going to run some Wildcat as well. So, no, I don't have any clue as to what they are going to do, and frankly I doubt anyone else does either.

And, truth be told, it probably doesn't matter one way or the other regardless of what they do. Todd is likely to be a below average quarterback, and the offensive line looks to struggle. Lee Ziemba and Ryan Pugh look good (when healthy), but the rest of the line looks to be in major trouble. Byron Isom, Mike Berry, and Andrew McCain are nothing special, and the depth on this unit is ridiculously thin. A kid like Chris Capps would easily see playing time with this group. And making matters worse, there is zero proven depth at wide receiver. About the only good thing you can say about this offense is that the tailbacks look to be a solid group. On the whole, though, given the overall lack of depth, good quarterback play, and game-changers at the skill positions, this offense looks to struggle regardless of what type of offensive system they implement, which is exactly the reason I'm not going to waste any time here trying to predict exactly what they are going to do offensively. Again, wishbone, run and shoot, whatever, the end result is almost certainly the same.

On defense, too, Auburn has a lot of problems. Last year's group was strong one hindered only by an incompetent defense, but a lot has changed since then. Guys like Trey Blackmon and Jerraud Powers left early, and what is left is largely a shell of what once was. The entire group is thin as a whole, and outside of Josh Bynes and Antonio Coleman, it's hard to identify many defenders who are clearly above average at this point. Mike McNeil is a fine player at safety, but he broke a leg in Spring practice, and at this point it looks like he is going to miss a few weeks of the season at least. Eltoro Freeman is a JUCO transfer who could really help out and be an impact player, but he has missed time this Fall with both an arm injury and a leg injury. All in all, much like the offense, the defense features very few top-end players, and almost no quality depth whatsoever.

On the whole, Auburn has a fairly decent starting 22, but considering modern day college football is a game that needs 50-55 good, solid contributors in order to play at a high level, that doesn't do them much good. Again, quality depth is the name of the game in football, and Auburn possesses almost none of that precious commodity. The schedule isn't easy in 2009, either, and frankly only Furman and Ball State are guaranteed wins. Of course Auburn will get more wins than that, I'm sure, but the point remains that wins likely won't come frequently for the '09 Tigers, and the few that do will likely be the result of some very close, hard fought contests. Much like last year, Auburn expects to be fighting tooth and nail with Mississippi State for last place in the SEC West.

LSU Tigers

After a disappointing 2008 campaign, the Bayou Bengal faithful hopes for improvement in 2009, and in all fairness they probably should get it. Jordan Jefferson, at the least, shouldn't be quite as disastrous as Jarrett Lee was a year ago, and while John Chavis is not a spectacular hire at defensive coordinator -- and in fact one I don't like in the long run -- he's an upgrade over what they had a year ago. As a result,

At quarterback the job belongs all to Jordan Jefferson now, and we'll have to see what he has made of. The LSU Hype Machine naturally has him as a superstar in the works, but a more objective view reveals more question marks and uncertainty. He played decent football last year -- relative to what Jarrett Lee did anyway -- but nevertheless he struggled to complete passes, and he took a ton of sacks thanks to his poor decision-making abilities. Based on what Jefferson has shown us, he looks to be a solid player eventually, but he still has a lot to prove, and all of these purple and gold notions just assuming that it's only a matter of time before he becomes a star quarterback are really just wishful thinking more than anything else. For now, what we can reasonably say about Jefferson is that he has a nice physical skill set with good long-term upside, and that if the LSU coaching staff uses him wisely, he might not be a top-end player this year but he will at least provide solid play and not turn the LSU offense into a trainwreck like Jarrett Lee did a year ago.

The rest of the skill positions are generally in good shape in Baton Rouge. Brandon LaFell will be one of the conference's top receivers, and likewise Richard Dickson will be one of the conference's top tight ends. Charles Scott is one of the conference's better tailbacks, and there is a lot of depth in the backfield with Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy, and incoming freshman Mike Ford. Likewise, while I don't think Russell Shephard will ever be an above average quarterback in this league, he's clearly an elite athlete, and I'm sure the LSU coaching staff will find some ways to take advantage of that this year. The only real concern at the skill positions is a lack of experienced depth, but the Tigers have recruited extremely well, and tremendous amounts of raw talent and athleticism are everywhere, so they should likely be fine even though they are not particularly experienced. Besides, experience at the skill positions tends to be a bit overrated, and in any event the Tigers aren't likely to face a legitimate test until the fifth week of the season when they go on the road to face Georgia, so again lack of experience shouldn't be a major concern.

The real concern with LSU's offense in many ways, much like Alabama, is with the offensive line. Jefferson is still green and ideally the coaching staff would be able to use a highly successful running game to take pressure off of him, but again there is no guarantee that will happen. Ciron Black is clearly the best tackle in the conference now, and Joseph Barksdale is more than adequate at right tackle. However, the interior linemen aren't necessariliy strengths. Gone are left guard Herman Johnson and center Brett Helms -- both punishing blockers in the running game -- and while Lyle Hitt returns at right guard, I've always considered him to be the weak link of the line. Making matters worse, T-Bob Hebert was expected to start at center after the departure of Helms, but he has been banged up in Fall camp, and that too is in question now. Moreover, this is a young line that probably doesn't have as much depth as you would at first imagine. The bottom line is that center / guard play of the interior linemen is exponentially important to the success of the running game, and if LSU has trouble here -- regardless of their strengths at the tackle position -- the running game will suffer, and more pressure will be put on Jefferson to make plays on his own. Again, as was the case with Alabama and Greg McElroy, that could very well result in more mistakes from the quarterback position, which can easily turn relatively easy wins into nailbiters, and close wins into close losses.

Defensively, the Bayou Bengals look to rebound from its worst showing in years in 2008. Truth be told, though, the LSU defense a year ago was a tale of two stories... a really good run defense, mixed with a really bad pass defense. And the bad news for the Tigers is that the cornerstones of the run defense -- the defensive line and linebacker Derry Beckwith -- have all moved on to the next level, so there are legitimate question marks there. Most of the defensive backfield returns, but again it is returning a unit that couldn't stop the pass, despite the fact that they were constantly helped by a good pass rush. Nevertheless, LSU has boatloads of talent all over the defense, and the real question is just whether or not they can take full advantage of it. They couldn't do that a year ago and struggled, but it will take an equally bad showing by both coaches and players to get a repeat performance of that poor effort in 2009.

All in all, LSU is a difficult projection, easily the most difficult of the entire SEC, and perhaps even the country. You still have questions at quarterback, and the running game may not go as smoothly as many assume. Furthermore, while the talent is there on the defensive side of the ball, and while John Chavis is an upgrade over Peveto and Mallory, he himself on occasion did field some bad defenses in Knoxville despite having loads of elite talent up on ol' Rocky Top. Plus, each and every year since arriving in Baton Rouge, Les Miles and company have lost games to some not so impressive teams that they should have easily won, and that will likely continue in 2009. On the other hand, LSU is easily still one of the nationally elite programs in terms of raw talent and athleticism, and the schedule once again is doing them a huge favor. Their athletic department continued a commitment to cupcakes approach to non-conference scheduling in 2009 -- getting 0-12 Washington, mixed in with Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Tulane -- and that combined with the luck of drawing the likely three worst SEC teams (Auburn, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt) means that they could play very poorly and still easily sleepwalk to seven wins. As I said two weeks ago, if I had to give all the possible outcomes, I'd say LSU could go anywhere from 7-5 to 11-1, and I'd give them a 20% chance of each individual outcome. Exactly where will they end up along that spectrum? It'll probably come down to the same two things it did a year ago: coaching and quarterback play, but trying to predict exactly where cannot be anything more than a pure guess at this point. Only with ignorance could you be particularly certain of that prediction at this point.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

After showing some signs of life for almost the first time in a decade, the Bulldogs came crashing back down in 2008, and the struggles brought a new regime to Mississippi State. Out is Sylvester Croom, and for the first time in almost 20 years a non-Alabama alum is roaming the sidelines in Starkville, as Dan Mullen takes over for the Bullies. And in all fairness to MSU, it's not a bad hire. Mullen is a young, energetic coach who is on the rise, and one who already has a couple of national championship rings on his resume. His hire may very well have been better than either Lane Kiffin or Gene Chizik.

That notwithstanding, though, it looks to be a very harsh reality for the Bulldogs in 2009. Mullen may have been hired because of his offensive background, but it's hard to see him breathing any life into this offense in 2009. It's been hapless for years, and with the 5'10 and 195 pound Tyson Lee leading the offense this year, it's hard to see that changing. It will probably be a major shock if he can withstand a year's worth of pounding in the SEC, and even if he can he's not likely to be very effective anyway. True freshman Tyler Russell is the quarterback of the future in any event, and his reign will likely begin sometime this year in Starkville. That's good news in one sense because Russell is a much more talented player than Lee, and he's a bitter fit for Mullen's spread option system, but I'll let you do the math on the success true freshmen quarterbacks have in this league while surrounded by poor supporting casts.

And speaking of that poor supporting cast, I think that's probably the nicest way to put it. The wide receiver corps has some problems, to put it mildly. Brandon McRae is a fine wide receiver, but who knows how he will rebound from the gruesome, Prothro-esque broken leg he suffered last year against Ole Miss? And aside from McRae, there really are no proven commodities. JUCO transfer Leon Berry will be counted on heavily, and from there true freshmen like Chad Bumphis will get a great chance at playing time. Mullen's spread needs a lot of quality receivers, and the Bulldogs just don't have it right now. Likewise, the offensive line doesn't look very good either. To be sure, most of the starters return from a year ago, but MSU has struggled in the trenches for ages now, and the physical brand of football that the Dawgs often played with under Croom will do them no good under Mullen. How will the MSU linemen handle the transition to the spread option? It's anyone's guess, but nearly everyone will be surprised if they do it with any considerable degree of success.

Probably the best player State has, period, is tailback Anthony Dixon, but even with him you have to worry. He's a big, powerful running back who gets the job done between the tackles. Now, one of you readers, remind me... how successful has Urban Meyer been with big, powerful, between the tackle running backs? His only success with them has been signing them, and then watching them flame out as recruiting busts. His offense has no real need for such a player, and Mullen's might not at MSU either. I'm sure he'll try to work Dixon into the mix as much as possible just because he's one of the few talented players he has, but at the end of the day the point remains that Dixon is built to run out of the I-formation and in between the tackles, not as the centerpiece of the spread option. Look for Christian Ducre to get more of a role there simply because he's a better fit for the scheme.

And the defense is probably in just as bad of shape as the offense. Defense was the strong point of the Croom teams, but only three starters are returning in 2009. The defensive line is both small and without any great amount of depth, so much so that when JUCO transfer Pernell McPhee -- a good player in his own right, in all fairness -- stepped on campus, he probably became State's top lineman almost instantaneously. That's good news for State, but the bad news is that he'll likely have to be a truly dominant player just to give the rest of the line a fighting chance. Likewise, the defensive secondary is effectively a complete makeover. Marcus Washington returns at cornerback, and Damein Anderson looks to start opposite him, with Derek Pegues gone, the rest of the Bulldog secondary seemingly either lacks the size or speed (or both) needed to be high-end defensive backs in this conference. Last year's defensive backfield was a good unit for the Dawgs, but it'd be a major surprise if this revamped unit could pull off the trick again this year.

The only good news for the Dawgs on defense comes at linebacker. If Jamar Chaney successfully returns from his leg injury, he'll be a top end player, and perhaps the most underrated defensive player in the entire conference. Aside from Chaney, both K.J. Wright and Chris White are solid players in their own right, and if this unit can stay healthy, it has a chance to be a good one. Unfortunately, the rest of the defense looks to struggle so much in front of them and behind them that it probably won't give them much of a chance to shine.

As I've said before, I've always had a soft spot for the traditionally hapless Bullies, and I like Dan Mullen to boot, but objectively speaking it looks to be a long year ahead for them. They'll start off with a good fluff win over Jackson State, but from there the schedule is brutal. They will almost certainly be underdogs in every single conference game, Georgia Tech will go through them like a hot knife through butter, and even Houston and Middle Tennessee State probably aren't sure wins.

Ole Miss Rebels

The media darlings of the SEC this year, Ole Miss made a big jump last year, and many in the national media are betting that they will make yet another big jump in 2009. Yet, interestingly enough, they were picked to finish third in their own division at SEC Media Days. And that brings me to a point that I keep coming across... the further away you get from the Ole Miss program, the more heightened the expectations are for the 2009 season. The closer you get to it, the lower the expectations get. Personally, I think that is because the people who follow the program on a closer level than the national pundits are able to spot some flaws and weaknesses that the national pundits are apparently overlooking in their rush to deify the Rebels as the next big thing.

And make no mistake about it, despite the hype in some circles, this team does have a lot of holes and a lot of concerns. Jevan Snead is a fine quarterback, and the backfield is generally loaded, but the offensive line looks to be a major concern. The loss of Michael Oher cannot be overstated, simply because he was an elite talent and because the Rebels do not have anywhere even near his level of ability now that can replace him. Many hoped Bobby Massie would be able to do that, but after arriving in Oxford only about three weeks back, that is highly unlikely. And making matters worse, both starting guards are gone as well, and frankly the replacements don't look to be anything overly special. Of the remaining linemen, only John Jerry looks to be one of the best in his conference at his position, and the rest of the starting five have more of the look of a below average line than anything else. It's basically the exact same problem Alabama has, only that the Rebels don't have anywhere near the number of talented players to fill the holes.

A lesser concern on the offensive side of the ball can also be found at wide receiver. With Mike Wallace gone to the NFL, only Shay Hodges remains in Oxford. Hodges is a fine player in his own right, but from there things get dicy. Dexter McCluster will assume the role of a full-time starter now in Wallace's absence, and while McCluster certainly has the talent, he thrived last year in a jack of all trades role, and no one knows how he will do as more of a traditional, full-time wide receiver. And after McCluster, the proven commodities are pretty non-existent. Players like Lionel Breaux and Markeith Summers aren't necessarily bad players, but by the same token they aren't the ultra-elite athletes that you find at a place like LSU where you can almost just assume that you can plug and play them and they will perform at a high level. The Rebels are probably going to have to rely heavily on true freshman Pat Patterson.

And the defensive side of the ball has more concerns than the offense. Peria Jerry was the key to Ole Miss' stout run defense last year, and he is now with the Atlanta Falcons, and just like with Michael Oher, the Rebels do not seem to have a player of comparable quality to replace him. Ted Laurent and Lawson Scott will play a lot inside, but I really don't think they would play for any other SEC contender, and for all of his recruiting hype and academic saga, Jerrell Powe has done nothing of note to this point. Likewise, at linebacker, it's a thin unit with no true star players. It's not exactly what you what you dream of having when you prepare for a tough run through an SEC schedule.

Defensive end is a clear strength, and if Greg Hardy finally gets things together, he along with Marcus Tillman and Kentrell Lockett will probably form the best defensive end rotation in the SEC. Unfortunately, that strength is off-set by more concerns in the secondary. They really struggled against the pass last year -- despite having the conference's best pass rush -- and while three starters return, none of those returning players seem to be particularly good. More struggles against the pass seem likely for 2009. Moreover, Houston Nutt's two major recruiting additions to the defensive backfield have already flamed out. Jamar Horsnby, the five-star who washed out of Florida after being caught using a dead woman's credit card, has been kicked off the team after yet another run-in with the law. His next stop will likely be jail. And speaking of jail, the other big recruiting addition to the defensive backfield for Nutt in 2009, Tig Barksdale, also spent some time there recently after being arrested on charges of DUI and driving without a license. Now, Barksdale will not enroll this Fall as a result of "medical issues."

So what do you have when you put it all together with the Rebels? You've got a good quarterback, a good backfield, a couple of good receivers, and a great pass rush. But you've also got major concerns with the offensive line, a middling linebacker corps, a suspect interior to the defensive line, a secondary that will likely struggle again, and a team with very little depth at almost every single position. And your head coach has disappointed almost every single time high preseason expectations have been placed upon his teams. Does that sound like a championship team to you? I'll let you be the judge of that.

Of course, this is not to overly denigrate the Rebels. They went 9-4 a year ago, and they have enough strengths to knock off almost anyone they face on any given day. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them knock off either Alabama or LSU, or both for that matter. However, before we deify the Rebels, it should be kept in mind that they have enough weaknesses to where they could just as easily lose those big games, and also lose some that they are expected to win. When everyone looks back on the 2008 Rebels, they love to remember them as the team that beat Florida in the Swamp, the team that blew out LSU, and the team that spanked Texas Tech. Yet the fact that they lost at home to Vanderbilt, lost at home to South Carolina, lost to Wake Forest, and needed a squeaker to hold off 5-7 Arkansas gets completely overlooked. Bottom line, the Rebels have enough strengths to win a lot of games and get some big wins, but they also have enough weaknesses to where they are also likely to lose some games they should not, and once again, just like last year, be left outside the championship chase.

Final SEC West Predictions

(1) Alabama: 10-2 (6-2)*

(1) LSU: 10-2 (6-2)*

(3) Ole Miss: 9-3 (5-3)

(4) Arkansas: 7-5 (3-5)

(5) Auburn: 5-7 (2-6)

(6) Mississippi State: 3-9 (1-7)

* A two-way tie atop the SEC West between Alabama and LSU, with the winner of the November 7th Alabama v. LSU game in Tuscaloosa advancing to Atlanta to face the Florida Gators.

5 Keys To A Successful Season, Part 3: Interior Offensive Line Play

Richard Pittman — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 11:43:08 -0000

In a column written just over a year ago and on another blog (hard to believe I've been at ATVS for only just over a year), I said that the interior of the offensive line was the second most important part of an offense, behind only the quarterback. I still believe that. Here is what I said:

2. Interior Offensive Line: This is where I part ways with a lot of other commentators. I think the key position-to-position matchup on any football field is the battle between the center/guard combination and the defensive tackles on the other side of the ball. Whoever can win the battle on the interior of the line goes a long way towards having success, both in running the ball and in throwing. If your interior offensive linemen can handle the defensive tackles 1-on-1, you will almost certainly have a lot of success on your offense. If you interior offensive line needs double-teams to keep the tackles out of the backfield, that frees up the rest of the defense to maneuver with several unblocked players. It's also great to have guards who can get to the second or third level and block linebackers or safeties, but I'll settle for linemen who can handle the tackles. I think interior offensive line is often overlooked, or it is believed you can just plug players into the position interchangeably. They certainly aren't paid nearly as well in the NFL at these positions as are the tackles, but I think you absolutely need these guys to have success in order for your offense to have success.

If you remember how big of a part of our defense a healthy Glenn Dorsey was, I think you would agree with me. A defensive tackle who can beat your interior linemen will disrupt everything you try to do. You can run away from a defensive end. You can avoid throwing at a certain cornerback. You can't escape a defensive tackle. The play starts right on top of him. The SEC has some good ones, like Terrance Cody (Bama), Geno Atkins (Georgia), Jeff Owens (Georgia), Malcolm Sheppard (Arkansas), and others who will be playing in the NFL.

This is why the guards and the center are so important. They don't get the attention that the tackles get, but these guys make up more than 1/4 of your offensive personnel on the field at any given time, yet the casual fan almost completely overlooks them and considers them virtually interchangeable.

LSU has some issues at this position.

LSU has a veteran offensive line returning, with a 4th year starter, a 3rd year starter, and a 2nd year starter all here. The problem is that we will be replacing Herman Johnson and Brett Helms at left guard and center respectively. Those are two of the three interior line positions. We return Lyle Hitt, who has been a bit under the radar even though he is a 3-year starter. He was not placed on any of the All-SEC teams, and I excluded him (with reservation) from the list of top 10 players on the team.

Hitt is a guy who has been a starter since his sophomore year. He's just done it very quietly. He has been a steady, but unspectacular presence on the right side of the offensive line.

I would call your attention to the 2007 season when Hitt was joined on the right side by Carnell Stewart. Carnell certainly had some difficulties at right tackle, but when it was 3rd and short (or 4th and short) and we needed a first down, we would famously call Jacob Hester's number, but we would almost invariably call Hitt's and Stewart's as well, as we would call on Hester to run to the right side. Hitt and Stewart formed a dominant run-blocking pair on the right side, and Hitt is still there.

I am confident that Lyle Hitt will be a fine player at right guard, but what of the other positions? T-Bob Hebert was a member of the heralded 2007 recruiting class, and was a pretty big recruit out of Georgia where he had settled with his famous father after Bobby Hebert's NFL career ended. He redshirted as a freshman, when LSU had Helms and Ryan Miller on the 2-deep at center. Last year, he began the season as a backup center and played a lot of special teams and was a fullback at times in short yardage, but then he injured his knee covering a punt. He tore a ligament and was out for the season.

With Brett Helms moving on at the end of a fine career at LSU, T-Bob Hebert joined the battle to take over his starting spot in the Spring, despite still being much less than 100%, and not being able to take full contact in Spring Practice. Despite this, Hebert has apparently beaten out redshirt freshman P.J. Lonergan for the center position. Hebert is now listed at 301# and reportedly is stronger than he was before he injured his knee. That position battle is still ongoing, but expect Hebert to be the starter on September 5.

The new starter at left guard is Josh Dworaczyk. This is another member of the Class of 2007, which was one of the most celebrated recruiting classes in LSU history. That class is certainly growing into a big part of the core of this team, as 3 of the 5 starters on the offensive line will be from the 2007 class. Dworaczyk was a backup at this position last year, and when Herman Johnson went out with a minor injury against Bama, he plugged in for a series and acquitted himself admirably. He also played special teams, and a little at tight end. He took over the "blocking tight end" role that Joseph Barksdale had played the previous year, a position that allowed LSU to get a 6th offensive lineman on the field to block and got a young offensive lineman a little experience. He was, therefore, basically our first lineman off the bench last year.

In order for a team to excel, players can't just "hold their own." Some of your units have to be able to beat the units opposite them on the field. Lyle Hitt will have to emerge from his anonymity and be a force on the inside. Hebert and Dworaczyk won't have the luxury of playing like rookies for long, as we get Georgia less than 1 month into the season, and they have two future NFLers (and veterans at that) on the interior of their defensive line. Hitt/Hebert/Dworaczyk vs. Atkins/Owens may be the key matchup of that particular game.

In Case You Haven't Figured Out, This Will Be Recruiting Week at ATVS

Richard Pittman — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 09:30:09 -0000

First, a congratulations to GasHouseGorillas, who celebrated the birth of his first child yesterday. GasHouseGorillas, in case you didn't know, is my older brother. Liam Casey Pittman was born yesterday at around 11:00am, weighing in at 7 pounds, 2 ounces and measuring an impressive 19.5 inches. Sadly, if the Pittman genes have anything to say about it, great athleticism is probably not in his future, Cousin Kirston notwithstanding.

Continuing on with the topic at hand.

With the Long, Dark Offseason of the Soul continuing for another few weeks, we are scrounging just a bit for topics to discuss here at ATVS. What's good for the bloggers is not necessarily good for the team, as I pointed out in this post about all news being bad news. Things are mighty quiet around the LSU athletic facilities, with nary a serious injury (since the Tim Molten injury), an arrest, or a transfer to discuss. We think transfers are coming, as I think we still have a little ways to go to get under scholarship limits, but they're not out there right now.

So this week, barring the introduction of any real news, we will be going over LSU recruiting for 2010 in the morning, and profiling 2009 signees in the afternoon. The 2009 profiles will continue until we're done with them.

Of course, there may be some real news, as SEC Media Days are upon us starting on Wednesday. Usually, if there is any SEC Media Days news, it is purely of the manufactured variety, and I am not really planning on spending a lot of my energy discussing it. I will, however, be reading Team Speed Kills' coverage, as he should have the hook-up for me. If anything important happens in Birmingham, he'll tell us all. I'll actually be doing a little podcast with him later this week. Be sure to check that out when it happens.

In the meantime, a little 2010 recruiting is in order. First, I would like to quote an article I wrote back in March on the subject of 2010 recruiting, back when little was known about most of the recruits we'll be signing:

For reasons I can't entirely explain, we seem to have a two-year cycle on the perception of in-state recruiting and our ability to recruit great players from out of state. For example, 2007 was a banner year for recruiting in the State of Louisiana, with two 5-star players produced by the state: Joe McKnight and Chad Jones, along with several very highly regarded 4-star type players. Not only that, but LSU's recruiting class was widely considered about the most solid in the country, with 21 four- and five-star commitments signed, including 5-star Terrance Toliver, and only a handful of 3-stars. This resulted in a #4 ranking according to Rivals, and was generally considered to be an outstanding class.

Contrast that with the 2008 recruiting class. It was much more heavily weighted towards 3-stars, with thirteen 3-star players signed, along with thirteen 4- and 5-star players. There were no in-state 5-stars. With the exception of Patrick Peterson (formerly Patrick Johnson), our out-of-state recruiting was considered lackluster, as it was believed we got a lot of guys who were other teams' leftovers. Examples include Derrick Bryant, Alex Hurst, and Kyle Prater, 3-stars out of Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas respectively. It was considered a down year and was ranked #11 by Rivals (fourth in the SEC).

The early results on both of these classes (keeping in mind that the 2007 class has had an extra year to develop and an extra year to have players wash out) is that these classes are more-or-less equal. From the 2007 class, we had 4 players get essentially a starters' share of playing time last year: Chad Jones, Terrance Toliver, Joseph Barksdale, and Jarrett Lee. Kicker/punter Josh Jasper was also a big contributor. A couple players slid right into backup positions and appear to be poised to be starters this year: Drake Nevis, Josh Dworaczyk and Will Blackwell. A few more have contributed as backups and on special teams and look to stay in those positions for now while they wait for more experienced players to clear out: Stevan Ridley, Phelon Jones, Ron Brooks, Mitch Joseph, etc., etc.

But look at the 2008 class. The QB from the 2008 class appears to have beaten out the QB from the 2007 class for the starter job, despite one fewer year in the system. Patrick Peterson beat out all the 2007 corners signed and became a starter. Ryan Baker was a monster on special teams and looks like he might win a starter's position this year. Brandon Taylor will compete as well, now and in the future. Offensive lineman Alex Hurst is drawing raves and many close to the program believe he'll be one of the next outstanding LSU offensive linemen, and he was one of the "leftovers".

My conclusion is that, at this time, it appears the 2008 LSU recruiting class was just as good as the 2007 class. It's hard to say how much of that was the 2007 class being overrated (just look at the guys who left the program without ever contributing: Jordon Corbin (sadly, due to injuries), Delvin Breaux (likewise), Jarvis Jones (kicked off; not to mention the ones who just don't look like they're going to be good players (no names mentioned at this time), and how much of it was the 2008 class being underrated.* I think it's a little of both.

That's my conclusion. My point is that the 2009 class was highly regarded, both in- and out-of-state, and so we're due for a down cycle in perception. The 2010 Louisiana recruiting class is not considered to be as great as the 2009 class or the 2007 class. It's considered more like the 2008 class. I wouldn't buy it though. Try not to get too high about the highs or too low about the lows. There will be lots of solid players in this class from the State of Louisiana. We will also sign some very good players from out of state, maybe even some real blue chippers.

Just calibrate your conclusions according to the inevitable result that it will be perceived to be middling. I think it's just part of the psyche of LSU fans and of recruiting observers in general. We're coming off a serotonin high of a great recruiting class. It's time for a bit of a come down. It's time, I guess, for the heroin half of our recruiting speedball to kick in (sorry, criminal defense lawyer-mode came out for a second).

I am wrong a LOT. I will be the first to admit that, but sometimes I get it exactly right, and I think this is one of those times.

Right now, LSU has 18 officially recognized commitments for the 2010 class. Ten are listed as 3-stars on Scout. Eight are listed as 3-star (or are unrated) on Rivals. Overall, this is shaping up to be a class more like the 2008 class than like the 2007 or 2009 classes. There are a lot of prospects in this class that are getting little attention nationwide. There are a few sleepers in the class like Sam Gibson (one of my favorite prospects, by the way), Houston Bates, Cameron Fordham, and Elliott Porter.

There are not a high number of in-state prospects that are getting a lot of love from the recruiting media. Rivals only lists 8 Louisiana prospects with 4 stars, and none with 5 stars. I expect two of those (Terrance Broadway and Munchie Legaux) to drop down to 3-stars soon, but they may be replaced by one or more new 4-star prospects. This compares to 14 four- and five-star prospects from the 2009 class, 11 in the 2008 class, and 17 in the 2007 class. This is clearly a year more like 2008 as far as the in-state prospects are perceived.

But as pointed out, the 2008 class appears to be a very good class, with Jordan Jefferson and Patrick Peterson being the headliners of that class so far. Peterson was all-world, but Jefferson was a sleeper who did not earn an offer until after his senior year was finished. The 2008 class was full of players who were probably a little underappreciated, like Karnell Hatcher, Greg Shaw, and Alex Hurst. I am thinking that this 2010 class will probably end up the same way.

Tomorrow and Thursday, we will discuss just a little bit about the little guys (receivers, defensive backs, etc.), and then on Friday we will start to profile some of the linemen that have decided to call LSU home in a year. We'll play it by ear after that, but at some point next week we'll get into the "Where Do We Go From Here" discussion of recruiting.

DL Jordan Allen and OL/DL Elliott Porter Commit to LSU

Richard Pittman — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 09:30:09 -0000

Via Rivals.com

This weekend, Les Miles held the second offseason football camp for recruits and young players to come to LSU, get a little coaching, and get evaluated and/or recruited by the Tigers. It is also just a coaching camp where hundreds of young men can pay their way to come to Baton Rouge to learn a little more football. The camps are usually big events for recruiting. At or near the last LSU football camp in June, LSU received commitments from offensive lineman Cameron Fordham, athlete Sam Gibson, defensive back Ronnie Vinson, and linebacker Justin Maclin. This camp has so far seen the commitments of defensive end Jordan Allen and projected offensive lineman Elliott Porter.

Jordan Allen is a fairly big name in recruiting circles. He is an accomplished player at arguably the primary feeder school to LSU, West Monroe High School in West Monroe, Louisiana. The 2009 class saw LSU receive a commitment from Barkevious Mingo (he of the 2009 Name of the Year Award) from West Monroe High. Sophomore offensive lineman Will Blackwell, who probably will be first or second offensive lineman off the bench for LSU this year, is also a West Monroe product.

Allen is a pretty big kid at 6'5" and over 240#. He looks like he can probably put on another 30 or more pounds to play at the next level, which may necessitate a move to the inside for him. Jordan Allen is a 4-star on both Rivals and Scout and is generally considered one of the better players in the state this year, perhaps the best. Being a West Monroe product he is going to be well-coached and technically sound. His film shows him to be solid in all respects, capable of running over players or out-quicking a bigger lineman. I would not say he shows awe-inspiring superstar potential at this point of his career. Then again, neither did tyson Jackson. If I had to compare Allen to a more recent recruit, I would compare him to Cousin Kirston or to Pep Levingston, solid in all respects but not really superlative at anything. There's nothing wrong with that as a prospect, as that sort of player can be an every-down contributor on a good team.

Allen has been a strong lean to LSU throughout the process and is choosing LSU over offers from all over the SEC, Nebraska, Michigan, and Clemson. His commitment to LSU is not a big surprise, except that many people believed he would take a few trips and commit at a later date.

Elliott Porter is a more interesting story. Porter is a product of Shaw High School in New Orleans and is listed at 6'4" and 280#. He came to the June camp as a defensive lineman. The coaches asked him to run a few drills at offensive guard and liked what they saw enough to offer him a scholarship as an offensive lineman, even though he had rarely played the position. The coaches saw potential there, though, and Porter did not have to think too long about it before he decided to commit in advance of this weekend's camp. He is listed as a 3-star on Scout and is as-yet unevaluated on Rivals. I imagine he will start out as a 3-star when he gets his evaluation.

Les Miles and offensive line coach Greg Studrawa have, of course, made a living off of converting defensive linemen to offensive linemen. In 2008, two of our starting offensive linemen were converted defensive tackles: Lyle Hitt and Joseph Barksdale. Backup guard Will Blackwell is also a converted defensive tackle. Our starting right tackle in the 2007 national championship year was a converted defensive lineman. Making this change of position is not unusual for this particular coaching staff. What is unusual is that it is happening before the player's senior year of high school.

The purpose of using a converted defensive lineman as an offensive lineman is that a defensive lineman is a high-athleticism position. Players at that position in high school are accustomed to playing quick and fast, and they often have a higher level of athleticism than their offensive counterparts. That player may go to college and find himself insufficiently athletic to contribute at defensive line but could still be a highly athletic offensive lineman. The practice of converting defensive lineman to offensive linemen gives LSU an unusually athletic offensive line. According to Poseur's analysis, the system has worked well for us.

With the Porter commitment, LSU is likely finished with offensive line recruiting for the 2010 class, unless a can't-turn-down prospect really wants to join up, which probably won't happen. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the 2010 offensive line class will be Porter at guard, Cameron Fordham at center, Evan Washington at tackle or guard, and JUCO transfer Jamarcus Hardrick at tackle. it will be an unusually small offensive line class, especially when you consider that Hardrick will be a couple classes ahead of the other guys, but the purpose is to recruit a few quality players and set up for a big haul in 2011.

2009 CFN LSU Preview, Part 2

Richard Pittman — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:37:21 -0000

Yesterday, we discussed CFN's preview of LSU and how it pertained to the new defensive coaching staff, Jordan Jefferson, and a few incoming freshmen. Today, we look at a few more topics.

The 10 Best Players on the Team:

Ten Best Tiger Players
1. WR Brandon LaFell, Sr.
2. RB Charles Scott, Sr.
3. OT Ciron Black, Sr.
4. LB Perry Riley, Sr.
5. DE Rahim Alem, Sr.
6. TE Richard Dickson, Sr.
7. QB Jordan Jefferson, Soph.
8. DT Drake Nevis, Jr.
9. LB/S Harry Coleman, Sr.
10. CB Patrick Peterson, So.

Well, at least he didn't name an incoming freshman as one of our 10 best players.

I think 1 through 3 are right on, or at least I only disagree in their order. I would put Ciron ahead of Charles Scott, but if you asked me who the 3 best players on the team are, those are the three I would name. After that, we start getting into some murky waters on who *I* would name, but CFN pretty much goes off the rails with the #4 pick.

I happen to be quite fond of Perry Riley as a player. When he was a freshman getting mop-up duty, I saw glimpses of a budding star. Last year, as a junior, he finally got a chance to start, and the results were solid, but underwhelming. One of my general principles in observing player development is that "the player you are as a junior is probably the player you will be as a senior." By your junior year you have some experience on the field. You should know the system. Your body should be fully matured and you should be in the best shape you'l ever be in. I have no empirical data to back this up, but I firmly suspect that the vast majority of players in college football do not make great strides in their game between their junior and senior seasons.

This is no indictment of Perry Riley. I think he's a fine player and a solid linebacker for us. I just do not believe he is going to be in the same stratosphere with guys like Rennie Curran, Brandon Spikes, and Rolando McClain. And who knows? There's reason to believe that last year's team didn't get all it could get out of the linebackers. Maybe Perry Riley is a coiled spring ready to be released. Pete Fiutak seems to think so:

Best Defensive Player: Senior LB Perry Riley. DE Rahim Alem should be the team's star pass rusher and he should be an all-SEC selection, while tackle Drake Nevis could grow into the special player to build around. But it's Riley who has the size, range, and experience to be the biggest playmaker in the more aggressive system and he should be a stat-sheet filler on the outside in a veteran linebacking corps.

If this is true of Riley, then either he greatly improved in the offseason, or our defensive coaches were worse than we thought last year.

After Riley, the next two are very defensible. Rahim Alem is, after all, a returning 1st team All-SEC performer. Many people would place him even further up this list, perhaps even at #1. Richard Dickson is an experienced and consistently productive tight end whose blocking skills are greatly underrated in my opinion.

Here is also, though, where we get to an omission. We all know what kind of an athlete Chad Jones is. How many starting free safeties are also the best left-handed pitcher on his particular campus? And bat over .300? And can chase down Darren McFadden from behind? Yes, it's not like Chad Jones tore it up last year, but Fiutak has shown himself to not be shy about projecting great increases in production from year to year (see Riley, Perry). If you're going to project that sort of thing, Jones is the better candidate. It is widely acknowledged, even by Jones himself, that he was misused last year, moving from position to position between plays, confusing him and leading often to him being out of position or scrambling even to get on the field. With him parked at the free safety spot, a monster year can be expected of him.

After this, I think it becomes very difficult to differentiate between a number of possible candidates to add to the 10 best. Here is my list:

1. Brandon Lafell, Sr. WR
2. Ciron Black, Sr., OL
3. Charles Scott, Sr., RB
4. Rahim Alem, Sr., DE
5. Chad Jones, Jr., S
6. Richard Dickson, Sr., TE
7. Patrick Peterson, So., CB
8. Drake Nevis, Jr., DT
9. Lyle Hitt, Sr., OL
10. Perry Riley, Sr., LB

That's right. I put Perry Riley in the top 10 anyway, but really at this point you could have put Harry Coleman, Keiland Williams, Joseph Barksdale, Chris Hawkins, Jacob Cutrera, Josh Jasper, or even special teams sensation Ryan Baker.

On LSU's Schedule:

LSU isn't exactly extending itself in the non-conference slate, even though it's not the program's fault that Washington stinks. The SEC schedule is nasty with Georgia and Florida to deal with from the East, while trips to Alabama and Ole Miss in November could end any hopes of winning the SEC West. Holding serve at home, even against Florida and Auburn, will be a must with three road trips in four weeks down the stretch. The battle against the Gators on October 10th could be a preview of the SEC Championship

...

The season will be a success if ... LSU wins the SEC West. Just getting to Atlanta for the SEC title will require a war and a negotiation of landmines with road trips to Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss to deal with, along with home games against Florida and Auburn. But this is LSU, and to shoot for anything less than the SEC title is selling the team short after loading up with talented recruiting class after talented recruiting class.

Nov. 7 at Alabama. The Tigers can split against Georgia and Florida from the East and still win the West, but it'll take wins at Alabama and Ole Miss to get the job done. If they lose to the Tide, the game in Oxford will end up being to shake out the pecking order for the bowls. If they can beat their old head coach, Nick Saban, and get a little revenge after losing last year's thriller, then LSU will be in the thick of the SEC title hunt.

I will have a lot more thoughts on this particular subject later. It is pretty much unmistakable that our nonconference schedule (@Washington, UL-Lafayette, @Tulane, La Tech) is a sure 4 wins with probably not a game in there that will be closer than a 20 point differential. We also have what appears to be the toughest conference slate of anyone. (@Georgia, Florida, @Alabama, @Ole Miss). My quick thoughts on that are, a) I think Georgia is better than most people think, b) Florida is a tall order for this or any other team to beat, but at least we get them at home, c) Bama's offense is not going to be nearly as good as it was last year but the defense should be stellar barring injuries, and d) Ole Miss isn't sneaking up on anyone this time around.

Our other four conference games are Vandy, @Mississippi State, Auburn, Arkansas. Vandy should be halfway decent, but I don't think they're in our class. Mississippi State is going to struggle. I keep going back and forth on Auburn between thinking they'll be better than everyone expected and realizing that their head coach has a career 5-19 record. Arkansas is a very solid team who can and may beat anyone on their schedule, including us.

Its a difficult schedule, but every one of these games is winnable. We have 3 sets of 4 games. Four nonconference games that should not be particularly stressful. Four conference games against teams that are probably not as good as us, but we need to avoid let-downs to avoid upsets. Four conference games against very good teams. The key I think will be avoiding upsets against the 8 teams we really should beat. If we do that, we really have something to play for in the 4 games against really good teams.

That's all for today. We continue this series tomorrow with even more thoughts on the schedule and other topics.

5 Players LSU Can't Afford to Lose to Injury

Richard Pittman — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 11:34:54 -0000

Back in August of 2008, I wrote a post entitled "5 Players We Can Ill-Afford to Lose to Injury". The title was self-explanatory. I attempted to name off five players who were too important to the 2008 season for us to lose without significant costs. Those players were, in order, Ciron Black, Colt David, Darry Beckwith, Ricky Jean-Francois, and Richard Dickson.

Alas, Darry Beckwith got hurt and missed time, seeming to not return to full strength for the rest of the season. Ricky Jean-Francois ended up not being all that important despite being healthy. Many of us overrated him. Otherwise, it was a good list.

This year, I found the list of 5 essential players to be harder to compile.

1. Ciron Black, LT. Last year, we were mainly concerned about the fact that there was no backup plan to Ciron Black. backup left tackle Jarvis Jones had been expelled from the team and it appeared that if Black went down we would have to go with an out-of-position guard or a true freshman. Now we at least have a backup plan, as Greg Shaw did some nice things as a true freshman backup tackle last year, and we have a nice true freshman class of linemen as well. The depth is there, but Ciron Black is the most experienced player on the team, having been a full-time starter and every-down player for the past 3 seasons. He actually has a chance, if he stays healthy, to tie a record for most games started by a college player. If LSU goes to the SEC Championship Game and then to a bowl, Black will share that record. It will be a big luxury to have such an experienced player at left tackle.

2. Brandon Lafell, WR. I defended LSU's depth at wide receiver last night, but the fact is that Brandon Lafell is the only proven high-level player at that position. People seem to forget how productive Lafell was last year, and how productive the passing game in general was. In a league where Julio Jones and A.J. Green got most of the press, Brandon Lafell led the league in receptions, was second (to Green) in receiving yards, and tied for the lead in touchdown catches. He was a deserving 1st Team All-SEC player, and he is returning for a 5th season. The most productive wideout other than Lafell returning is Terrance Toliver, whose 22 catches last season for 257 yards was probably a disappointment, but it's not at all too late for Toliver to reach that vast potential. It would be nice to let him do it while Lafell is getting double-covered though.

3. Rahim Alem, DE. Alem is an outstanding player, but here is where the picking gets tougher. I really think the depth is there on defensive line that we will have good players there no matter what. Alem is just such a good pass rusher and such an athletic guy that he adds a dimension to the defensive line that would be very difficult to replace, even if we could easily plug a competent guy in there after him. I just don't think we could plug in a dynamic penetrator and pass rusher like Alem. If Alem were to get hurt, we would have to turn to unproven freshman Chancey Aghayere and Sam Montgomery in an attempt to find that spark.

4. Richard Dickson, TE. I picked him last year, saying:

The big passing target is going to be an important outlet for our young quarterbacks all season long. If they struggle to get the ball to the outside, Dickson will be there finding holes in the zone and giving them a big target to throw to. There is no receiving tight end to speak of behind him, and no receiver quite like him on the team, so he is going to be an essential part of the offense.

You could just cut and past the first two sentences of that entry here and it would still true. We still have young quarterbacks. We can still expect them to struggle at times. Dickson was our #3 receiver in both catches and yards last season, and I would expect the same this season. One difference is that I think we have better depth there now than we did last season, but like Ciron Black, Dickson has been a 3-year starter and it would be impossible to replace that experience.

5. Chad Jones, S. It gets harder and harder here. Chad Jones looks like a star at this position, but we are really getting into areas where the depth is also outstanding. If we were to lose Chad Jones, we could plug Danny McCray in there, and he would do very well as a regular safety, as opposed to nickel back where he has been used and where he struggles. Or we could insert Karnell Hatcher, who I thought was outstanding as a freshman backup last year. Or we could move Harry Coleman back to safety again. Jones is great but there are options, and losing him would not be the end of the world. The same could be said in varying degrees of Patrick Peterson, Drake Nevis, Charles Scott, Lyle Hitt, Joseph Barksdale, Perry Riley, and others who are sure to be important players on this team. You have to choose someone, so you might as well choose the best left-handed pitcher on the football roster.

Of course, this list could change between now and September 5, 2009, as it is always possible for us to lose more players to injury and/or attrition, screwing up the depth at various positions.

Who are your five?