SB Nation - Wesley Carroll

Comparison: Mississippi State versus SELA and Jackson State

Year2 — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 18:15:18 -0000

Since we only have a week of football under our belts, the only thing we can do right now for comparison's sake is look at what teams did last year versus what they did this year. So with that in mind, let's take a look at how Mississippi State did against Southeast Louisiana last year and Jackson State this year. There was a lot of excitement about Dan Mullen's new offense, but how different were the results against a I-AA team?

As with previous comparisons, sack yardage has been taken out of the rushing totals.

OFFENSE

CATEGORY	vs. SELA	vs. JACKSON ST.
Total Yards	401	410
Passing	185	172
Yds. per Pass	6.9	6.9
Rushing	216	238
Yds. Per Rush	4.7	5.3
Turnovers	2	2
Time of Poss.	34:06	31:02
Sacks All.	0	0

Strangely, against a I-AA opponent, there was no difference between the Sly Croom offense and the Dan Mullen offense statistically. Yards per pass was identical, they got a half yard more per rush, committed the same number of turnovers, and lost a bit in time of possession. The Bulldogs' offense even ended up getting just four more points this year than last (seven of the 45 total were on an INT return).

Did the passing game improve its efficiency without Wesley Carroll? Well, no. Three quarterbacks combined to go 18 of 27 last year, and three quarterbacks combined to go 16 of 25 this year. The rushing among the top guys was better, with RB Robert Elliott going for 7.3 yards per rush and QB Chris Relf going for 6.8 yards per rush. It will probably be better when Anthony Dixon comes back from suspension.

DEFENSE

CATEGORY	vs. SELA	vs. JACKSON ST.
Total Yards	174	204
Passing	115	132
Yds. per Pass	5.8	6.6
Rushing	59	72
Yds. Per Rush	2.7	2.3
Turnovers	1	5
Time of Poss.	25:54	28:58
Sacks For	5 (-26 yards)	2 (-10 yards)

Sylvester Croom's teams were always pretty good at defense, and his last one was pretty good at stopping Southeast Louisiana. Mullen's first team was also pretty good at stopping a I-AA team, slipping some in pass defense (though not by much) and hauling in an impressive five turnovers. Granted this isn't some kind of big achievement, but there's not any evidence to suggest yet that the defense is going to fall off because a spread offense has been installed. In other words, Mississippi State isn't a Big 12 team (I kid! I kid!).

I get that there's a lot of excitement over Dan Mullen in Starkville, but he didn't do a whole lot more in his I-AA game than Sylvester Croom did in his last year. Maybe things will look up soon, but the production hasn't changed a whole lot yet.

Previous Comparison: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss.

ATVSQBPI: Past is Prologue

Richard Pittman — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 09:30:14 -0000

Former Kentucky quarterback Andre Woodson put on his old jersey and celebrated his pretty good ATVSQBPI from 2007.

You wanted more information about the And The Valley Shook Quarterback Productivity Index, and I am here to give it to you. I have the data going back three years in the SEC. The first year can be found here, and we will reproduce it for this post.

Again, reminding you that the formula is as follows:

ATVSQBPI = (yards passing + yards rushing - yards lost by sack + 20*Number of Touchdowns - 30*Number of Interceptions)/(Number of pass attempts + rush attempts).

The explanation for why we use this particular formula is found here, but realize we are not using the complete formula because First Down stats are not quite as readily available, and it should pretty much wash out anyway. Plus, we've all gotten used to the scale this particular metric gives us.

Would you like to see 2006 and 2007? How about after the jump?

2008:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	8.73
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	8.49
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss	7.84
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.87
Casey Dick, Arkansas	5.68
Jarrett Lee, LSU	5.56
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.12
Jordan Jefferson, LSU	5.11
Nick Stephens, Tennessee	5.10
Kodi Burns, Auburn	5.02
Chris Nickson, Vandy	5.01
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina	4.95
Tyson Lee, Mississippi State	4.86
Mike Hartline, Kentucky	4.77
Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee	4.34
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	4.03
Chris Todd, Auburn	4.02
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	2.85

Alright, we've been through those numbers once before. Let's take a look at 2007:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	9.11
Ryan Perrilloux, LSU	8.20
Erik Ainge, Tennessee	7.12
Andre Woodson, Kentucky	6.89
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	6.78
Casey Dick, Arkansas	6.15
Matt Flynn, LSU	6.08
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina	5.81
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.69
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.62
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	5.16
Seth Adams, Ole Miss	5.03
Brandon Cox, Auburn	5.00
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	4.73

What are my take-away messages from this?:

Numbers were generally better in 2007 than they were in 2008.
Wesley Carroll was the worst starting QB in the SEC in both 2008 and 2007.
Tebow was a little better in his Heisman year than in his junior year. Or at least, he was a little more productive.
You really can win with average QB play, if you consider that LSU won the national championship with middle of the pack quarterback play in 2007, while Auburn was a pretty decent team with one of the least effective QBs in the conference. It sure makes it easier, though, if you're really good.
Just look at Ryan Perrilloux. That's what we didn't have in 2008. Well, that and a defense.
Andre Woodson was held back by his awful rushing numbers (not shown).

Let's move on to 2006, in which I lift the numbers straight from my old website:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Jamarcus Russell, LSU	9.16
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina	8.26
Erik Ainge, Tennessee	8.07
Andre Woodson, Kentucky	7.79
Chris Leak, Florida	7.02
Syvelle Newton, South Carolina	7.00
Casey Dick, Arkansas	6.99
Chris Nickson, Vandy	6.55
Brandon Cox, Auburn	6.37
John Parker Wilson, Bama	6.14
Omarr Conner, Mississippi State	6.13
Michael Henig, Mississippi State	5.82
Matthew Stafford, UGA	5.78
Mitch Mustain, Arkansas	5.68
Brent Schaeffer, Ole Miss	4.27

What are my take-home messages from 2006?:

Jamarcus Russell had the best ATVSQBPI of any quarterback between the years 2006 and 2008.
But on the other hand, numbers in general declined steadily in those years. Just look at John Parker Wilson. His ATVSQBPI actually fell each year he was a starter, but his ranking increased. Some of the worst QBs in the league in 2006 would have been pretty average in 2008 with the same production. Look at where Omarr Conner and Michael Henig would have ranked in 2008? Does this mean that Michael Henig was as good a quarterback in 2006 as John Parker Wilson was in 2008? Heck no. The steady decline of the mean from year to year, and the reduction in production of John Parker Wilson as he went from sophomore to senior, suggest the reduction is due mostly to better defenses.
Look at the steady progression of Matthew Stafford.
What the heck happened to Blake Mitchell?

If you have any additional thoughts, I welcome you sharing them.

ATVS Quarterback Productivity Index: Let's Look At the Numbers

Richard Pittman — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 16:25:42 -0000

On Friday, I introduced you (again) to the ATVS Quarterback Productivity Index. It is an attempt to improve upon the traditional, but not terribly helpful, "Passer Rating". It is measured in yards per attempt, with bonuses and penalties for interceptions and touchdowns, and includes quarterback rushing statistics as well. Here is the formula:

Passer Rating = (yards passing + yards rushing - yards lost by sack + 5*(First down completions and runs) + 20*Number of Touchdowns - 30*Number of Turnovers)/(Number of pass attempts + rush attempts).

You should think of this as giving a value for how much yardage a quarterback is worth when his number is called, with bonuses and penalties.

I was asked by LSUJonno to take a look at some numbers. I agreed, but there is one problem with that request. One of the statistics I use to compile the index is not generally kept. Without good statistics on 1st Downs, it is impossible to get a good indication of where the numbers are. So, I calculated the numbers simply taking out the 1st down statistics. This should make a dramatic impact on the absolute scale of numbers, as most quarterbacks will probably get 1st downs on approximately half of their completed passes. With a 1st down being worth 5 bonus yards above and beyond the yardage actually gained, you can expect that the actual numbers using the full formula would be 1 to 2 yards higher than are given.

Also, please note, that according to ESPN statistics, no quarterback in the SEC lost a fumble, so that part of the formula washes out.

Before we take a look at the numbers, let's take a look at the perceptions. If you ask most observers, they would say that in 2008, there were 3 top-tier quarterbacks in the SEC: Tim Tebow of Florida, Matthew Stafford of Georgia, and Jevan Snead of Ole Miss. After that, most would say that there was a second tier of John Parker Wilson of Bama and Casey Dick of Arkansas. Then, there was a monstrous collection of suck throughout the conference. Let's see if the numbers bear this out:

ATVSQBPI Ratings for 2008 SEC Quarterbacks:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	8.73
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	8.49
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss	7.84
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.87
Casey Dick, Arkansas	5.68
Jarrett Lee, LSU	5.56
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.12
Jordan Jefferson, LSU	5.11
Nick Stephens, Tennessee	5.10
Kodi Burns, Auburn	5.02
Chris Nickson, Vandy	5.01
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina	4.95
Tyson Lee, Mississippi State	4.86
Mike Hartline, Kentucky	4.77
Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee	4.34
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	4.03
Chris Todd, Auburn	4.02
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	2.85

Most of our initial prejudices appear to be born out. There is definitely a first tier, and it includes the quarterbacks we would have expected. Tebow, Stafford, and Snead, and no others.

While Casey Dick and John Parker Wilson were the next two quarterbacks, the second tier didn't quite develop as I would have expected. Jarrett Lee is right there with him, and for that I think you can thank the fact that the formula I use does not distinguish between interceptions returned for a touchdowns and interceptions with no return. After Lee, it is not all that far to the Smelleys and Burnses of the conference.

Also, it is important to realize that other than the top 3 quarterbacks on the list, almost no one had a very good TD/Int ratio. Nine quarterbacks in the SEC threw more interceptions than touchdowns, and 4 had ratios pretty close to 1:1. In the entire SEC, only the following QBs (among the ones with appreciable statistics) had a TD/Int ratio better than 1.5:1: Tebow, Stafford, Snead, Nathan Dick, Jordan Jefferson, and Chris Nickson. That's it.

I did not list the raw statistics, but another feature here is that every quarterbacks rating suffered as a result of their rushing statistics, which is not surprising considering "rushes" includes sacks as well as mad scrambles to escape a rush, which often result in very short gains. The question becomes how much do the rushing statistics hurt each quarterback, and how are they relative to each other. The unfortunate side effect is that quarterbacks who had a lot of designed runs suffered disproportionately, and probably unfairly. Kodi Burns and Stephen Garcia especially saw their ratings suffer.

Tim Tebow's ratings did not suffer much for his running because he's just that darn good at it, and his touchdown numbers really kept him high up the list.

Jarrett Lee was easily the least effective rusher, failing to score a rushing touchdown and averaging a whopping 8.82 yard loss per rush. The good news is that he did not have a lot of rushes, which means he did a good job of getting rid of the ball. But then again, see his 16 interceptions.

It does verify what I told Team Speed Kills back when they were previewing LSU, which was that Jarrett Lee was not the worst QB in the conference. In fact, statistically (both in passer ratings and in ATVSQBPI) he was towards the middle of the pack. People just remember the returns, which weren't really his fault beyond the fact that he threw the interceptions. But everyone threw interceptions except Tebow, Snead, Stafford, and Nickson. Lee was not good, but there were a LOT of 'not good' quarterbacks in the SEC. Among the 'not good' quarterbacks, Lee was actually one of the better ones, especially if you don't blame him for the fact that so many of his interceptions had big returns.

You can decide for yourself if those returns are his fault, beyond the mere fact that he threw the interception that led to the return.

It's too bad I could not add in the first down statistics, as it would have been interesting to see if they made a significant difference in how the quarterbacks ranked.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet with the raw data if you're interested.

2008 Quarterback Statistics

SEC 2009 // The Depth Chart

cocknfire — Wed, 20 May 2009 23:26:30 -0000

Whenever there is a regime change, there will be position battles, and Mississippi State is following suit.

The marquee battle, of course, is at quarterback, where Tyson Lee and Chris Relf fought to a draw in spring practice. Wes Carroll, for those of you who were unaware, has moved to Florida International, which as a Sun Belt team is practically an honorary member of the SEC anyway.

In any case, Lee had an early edge in the QB race as the incumbent starter, but Relf caught up over the course of the year. Recruit Tyler Russell could make some noise, at least among the faithful, but Russell was seen as a touted pro-style QB. He can run, but it will be interesting to see how he operates a spread offense. In any case, Dan Mullen has played down notions that Russell will start quickly.

Senior RB Anthony Dixon might be the most important returning starter for the Bulldogs. Dixon rushed for 869 yards on 197 carries last years (4.4 ypc average) and 7 TDs. He's backed up by another pair of seniors, Christian Ducre (56 rushes, 222 yards, 4.0 ypc, 2 TDs) and Arnil Stallworth, (12 carries, 57 yards, 4.2 ypc, 1 TD).

As for freshmen -- well, the wide receivers who arrive on campus this fall could find themselves with some early playing time. In part because the second-string unit is patchwork at best.

Not a lot of progress, as they're pretty much pulling guys off the street to line up at receiver.

"Our two group is a walk-on quarterback, a guy who's been on the team for three days, and I don't even know the third kid they had out there with that. It's just tough doing it that way."

Mississippi State signed seven wideouts in the offseason, including high-caliber JUCO recruit Leon Berry out of East Mississippi Community College. Berry caught 59 passes for 1,003 yards and 9 TDs at East Mississippi. Berry is already listed as Brandon McRae's backup and as the team's first-team kick returner.

Except at right end, there don't appear to be many controversies on the defensive side of the ball. As expected, Damein Anderson came out of spring as the lead for the left cornerback spot across the field from Marcus Washington. But the defense was not the main problem for the Bulldogs during the Croom Era, though it was subpar last year.

How the offensive depth chart plays out on the field will decide State's future this year.

Full Mississippi State depth chart here.

Do We Need to Reevaluate Dan Mullen?

Year2 — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 15:00:11 -0000

You know things are upside down in Starkville when they use a basketball game to get folks excited about football. No offense, Coach Stansbury.

There is a small but extremely vocal contingent of Florida fans that never liked Dan Mullen.

They thought he didn't know what he was doing in his first two years because the team failed to score 30 points a game.

Never mind the fact that the players were learning a new offense and precious few of the right kind of player were there to run the offense properly. Also, all of the coaches were still learning about the rigors of life in the SEC, the pressures of which led to the infamous "Urban Crier" incident after the 2005 Florida-LSU game.

They thought Mullen didn't know what he was doing in his last two years either because according to them the team could have averaged 50 points a game.

Never mind the fact that the defense was the problem in 2007 and that an offensive player won the Heisman that season. Ignore that entire last year too, what with the 45 points a game and national title; the guy's just riding Urban Meyer's coattails.

No matter what, nothing he did was good enough. Being the offensive coordinator for two SEC titles, two national titles, and two of the top six highest scoring offenses in school history doesn't matter to them. They all wanted him replaced by Meyer's offensive coordinator at Utah, Mike Sanford, despite the fact that Sanford is the head coach at UNLV and isn't going to give that up to be an assistant again.

These kinds of people are the sort that helped lead Steve Spurrier to resign in 2002 in part because he thought that the fans felt 10-2 wasn't good enough. They created what Ron Zook called "the noise in the system" and are part of what Meyer generically calls "the Florida nonsense."

It would be really easy to dismiss them all as permanently unhappy message board creatures, and that's because they mostly are. However, one thing keeps me from wiping them all away entirely.

The early reviews of new UF quarterbacks coach Scot Loeffler are universally positive. Tim Tebow and backup quarterback John Brantley have been raving about him since day one, and some of the receivers have made comments as well. The throws are more accurate, the spirals are tighter, and their arms aren't as tired after practice.

One of the biggest things they've been working on is getting Tebow and Brantley to throw with their whole bodies instead of just their arms.

Now, I'm no quarterbacks coach and I've never played organized football. I did play nearly a decade of Little League baseball though, and I can remember the "don't throw with your arm, pitch with your body" lesson being taught to 12-year-old pitchers back then. I would think that it'd likely be a part of most any aspiring quarterback's education as well, especially in college.

I know it's not a universally taught lesson though. I can remember seeing an instructional video with Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan, and Johnson said he was just a thrower until Ryan taught him to really pitch. This video was filmed after Johnson made the majors and struck out a lot of guys, so success can be had without using your whole body.

Anyway, it makes me pause and wonder about Mullen when I read that Loeffler is working with the quarterbacks on basic fundamentals like using their legs, footwork, and the proper release point.

There's nothing in Mullen's background that would specifically lead him to be a quarterbacks coach. He was a tight end in college and was nothing but a receivers coach until joining Meyer's Bowling Green staff as the quarterbacks coach. Seeing as how he groomed Josh Harris, Alex Smith, Chris Leak, and Tebow, he did do all right for himself in the role, but Harris, Smith, and Leak have all amounted to nothing in the NFL.

When it comes down to it though, Mississippi State didn't hire Mullen to come in to be a quarterbacks coach. They hired him to be the head coach and revitalize what has been a moribund offense for years.

He started by signing a pretty good recruiting class. It features seven four-star players (according to Rivals), which is one less than MSU had in 2007-08 combined. That's a good start.

He's also a workaholic who knows the ins and outs of one of college football's most effective offenses. No, Tyson Lee and Tyler Russell aren't exactly Chris Leak and Tim Tebow, but no one expects miracles right off the bat in Starkville. Improvement is all they want, and there's a good chance it will come.

Maybe Dan Mullen isn't as good a quarterbacks coach as Scot Loeffler is. Then again, maybe all the improvement Tebow and Brantley are seeing comes from having a dedicated position coach instead of one who is also trying to run the whole offense.

Either way, I doubt Mississippi State cares.

They have Dan Mullen the head coach, not the position coach or coordinator. Only time will tell whether that's good enough in the SEC, but he accomplished more as a coordinator than fellow SEC head coaching hires Mike Shula and Lane Kiffin did as coordinators.

That fact alone probably makes him worthy of a fair shot at a program that needs a boost.