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The Mississippi State Preview

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 13:30:25 -0000

More photos » by Rogelio V. Solis - AP

Mississippi State quarterback Chris Relf (14) reaches for a first quarter snap as offensive linemen Addison Lawrence (62) and Craig Jenkins (75) lead the rush against Jackson State during an NCAA college football game in Starkville, Miss., Saturday, Sept. 5, 2009. Mississippi State won 45-7. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

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With it's 24-15 win over LSU, Alabama officially clinched a berth in the SEC Championship Game when the first week of December rolls around. The divisional race is over, and the Tide will get its long awaited rematch with the Gators in Atlanta. Of course, though, with three games left on the regular season slate, Alabama still needs to win out to ensure itself that a trip to Pasadena will be on the line once we square off against Florida. Even with the SEC West in the bag, 'Bama still has everything to lose with one misstep.

Mississippi State, on the other hand, has been one of the surprises of the conference in 2009. They were widely expected to be very bad in Dan Mullen's debut campaign, but in fact they have been very competitive. They currently sit at 4-5 with hopes still alive of making a bowl game, and to date their biggest problem has been a ridiculously tough schedule that has forced them to face five top fifteen caliber teams in their first ten games.

Let's take a closer look at the match-ups.

Alabama Offense v. Mississippi State Defense

With his performance against LSU, if nothing else, Greg McElroy -- and the Alabama offense as a whole -- took a step in the right direction. Things are far from perfect to be sure. McElroy still made a lot of mistakes, the red zone inefficiencies continued, untimely penalties remained, and we only scored two touchdowns. Even so, for the first time since Arkansas left town, the Alabama offense clearly showed signs of improvement over its previous performance. We moved the football all afternoon, hit a couple of big plays, and Mark Ingram remained his usual dominant self. Moreover, both Julio Jones and Marquis Maze looked to healthy again, a big addition to the offense.

Exactly what Alabama does in this game is hard to say. The performance against LSU was promising of greater offensive production to come, but there were still enough mistakes made to cause someone to be legitimately concerned at the prospect of regression. Of course we all hope that the offensive juggernaut is close to returning, but no one can definitively claim that to be the case.

Making matters even more difficult to project is that we really do not know how we will attack this weekend. In the first half against LSU we spread the field, went with an empty backfield a relatively high percentage of the time, and threw 25 passes. In the second half, though, we significantly altered our offensive attack. Even when you factor out the three kneel downs to end the game, we nevertheless ran the football on 22 of the 33 offensive snaps in the second half, throwing only nine passes in the process (one of which was a trick play out of the Wildcat). In short, we went pass happy in the first half, but after getting little success via the air (only approximately 140 passing yards on 25 passing attempts), we flipped poles and went run heavy in the second half. Which end of the spectrum will Alabama be on this weekend? No one really knows.

The good news is that the Mississippi State defense looks to be the easiest we've faced since Arkansas headed back to Fayetteville. It's not necessarily a bad unit, mind you, but it has been far from impenetrable. The pass defense has been fairly decent, but the run defense has struggled and they have been unable to consistently rush the quarterback. Defensive coordinator Carl Torbush -- 'Bama fans will remember him as Franchione's defensive coordinator in 2001 and 2002 -- has done a good job of putting together a functional defense despite having the terrible triage of inexperience, a lack of top-end talent, and a lack of quality depth.

The strength of this Mississippi State defense is clearly in the linebacker corps. Starting middle linebacker Jamar Cheney is probably the best defensive player in the conference that you've never heard of, and K.J. Wright is a great athlete. Chris White rounds out the group, and he's a solid player in his own right. The quality depth isn't there, but it's no mistake that the top three tacklers on this defense all reside at linebacker, and if nothing else the frontline guys are generally very good.

The problem is that in the trenches and in the defensive backfield, the horses just aren't there. JUCO transfer Pernell McPhee -- a prospect 'Bama coaches were very high on -- has been great at defensive end, but the rest of the line has been fairly ineffective. It's basically a hodgepodge of middling players, mixed with some guys playing out of position and some kids barely removed from high school. Largely the same story goes for the defensive backfield as well. The secondary had a good bit in talent in 2008, but graduation has forced almost a total rebuild and while Torbush has done a pretty good job with those guys, it's far from an outstanding unit.

All told, for all of the good work that Torbush has done to date in Starkvegas, again this is still the weakest defensive unit we've faced since Arkansas. Depending on how our offense performs this Saturday, Mississippi State has enough shortcomings to present us with some opportunities. If we play relatively well on offense and continue to improve, we ought to score more than our fair share of points.

Alabama Defense v. Mississippi State Offense

The real advantage for the Tide, however, comes when our defense takes the field. Dan Mullen will eventually run the spread option in Starkvegas, but he just doesn't have the kind of players he is looking for right now. He did a good job in recruiting some talented players in his first recruiting class, and the early returns are relatively positive, but this is a unit that still has a long way to go. The Alabama defense, on the other hand, has practically been an immovable object for most of the season, and few teams have been able to muster any real amount of success.

To be sure, Mississippi State has shown a few signs of improvement offensively this year. Mullen has done a good job of molding his ideal offensive scheme to fit the unique skill sets of the players that he has on hand, and the end result of that is the Bulldogs end up with the look of a traditional I-formation power attack masquerading in a lot of spread option sets. This is still not a very good unit, and one that is still near the bottom of the SEC in both point and yardage production, but it's a clear improvement over a year ago, and it's certainly nowhere near as bad as they have been the past several years.

The strength for the Mississippi State offense is clearly in its backfield, particularly with senior tailback Anthony Dixon. The Jackson native was a highly-touted recruit coming out of high school when he signed with Sylvester Croom, and he could have gone just about anywhere in the country. Eschewing the notion that there is no role for a big tailback in the spread option, Dixon has had a standout senior season. He's already over 1,000 rushing yards on the season, and he's the best power runner that we will face all season. Much like former Bulldog Jerious Norwood, a career in the NFL awaits Mr. Dixon, and he should be respected accordingly. Moreover, Christian Ducre also gets a lot of touches at tailback, and he's a fine back in his own right. His biggest problem is simply the quality of the player in front of him.

And in all fairness, the Mississippi State offensive line is a fairly decent group in its own right. Left tackle Derek Sherrod is a bit raw, but no one doubts his athleticism, and the rest of the group has a decent amount of experience. They are far from world-beaters, but they haven't been the complete liability that many MSU offensive lines were during their darker periods of this decade. It probably says a fair amount about this group that Dixon and Ducre have had the success that they have had, and that they should finish near the top of the SEC in Adjusted Sack Rate.

The real problem for Mississippi State has been at quarterback and wide receiver. Tyson Lee does as good of a job as he can running the spread option, but realistically he's just not the guy they are looking for. He's entirely too small to be a pocket passer in this league, and the arm strength isn't very good either. Moreover, while he's a pretty decent runner, he's nowhere near the kind of quarterback who can get by on his athleticism alone. He's a tough competitor, but he simply hasn't been very productive. He hasn't been able to generate a lot of big plays in the passing game, likewise on the ground, and he turns the ball over entirely too much.

The wide receiver corps is really more of the same. True freshman Chad Bumphis is the best of the group -- and he's yet another one that Saban recruited very hard last year -- but it's rarely ever a good sign when a true freshman is clearly your most productive wide receiver. Brandon McRae, O'Neal Wilder, and Leon Berry are the starters, but none of them have really able to do anything special. It says quite a bit when, through nine games in a season, your most productive wide receiver doesn't even have 300 receiving yards.

All in all, the raw firepower just isn't there for the Bullies. Alabama will certainly have its hands full trying to stop Dixon -- and I imagine he will have his fair share of success -- but if the Alabama defense plays anything like it has throughout the rest of the season, it's hard to see Mississippi State scoring very many points unless we give them a lot of freebies with turnovers or special teams breakdowns. For 'Bama, limiting Dixon likely means bringing the MSU offensive attack to a halt. Even though it's a somewhat better unit than what we have faced from MSU in recent years, none of the Tide's previous four SEC opponents have been able to generate more than 13 points offensively, and the Bulldogs likely won't be able to break that streak either.

Putting It All Together

On paper, Alabama is clearly the better team between these two. We have far more high-end talent than the Bullies, likewise for quality depth, and frankly it's not even close in either category. We're a good bit better than Mississippi State in almost every single capacity regardless of how you analyze things, even on special teams. Based on that, you would say that Alabama ought to win this game in a relative route.

Of course, Dan Mullen and his Bulldogs deserve a lot of credit. These guys do not look particularly formidable on paper, yet somehow they've been able to pull it all together and make things work. As I mentioned earlier, they have played four legitimate top-fifteen caliber teams -- as of right now, those four teams have a combined record of 33-4 -- and have kept it close and competitive in every single contest, even though on paper those games should have been lopsided routes. I really see no reason to expect that they wouldn't do the same thing against Alabama.

Moreover, while the Alabama defense looks to be able to be its usual dominating self, again we really do not know what to expect offensively. Hopefully the juggernaut will return, but if the struggles continue I don't think anyone should be overly surprised. Furthermore, we're probably pretty beat up after a physical game with LSU, and I'm sure Mullen used the off week to his advantage. And finally, for whatever reason, Alabama has historically played sloppy football against Mississippi State.

All in all, I think you have to feel pretty confident about our chances for victory in this game if but for nothing more than our defense. On the other hand, though, a blowout is far from imminent, and this game looks to be a relatively close one. 'Bama probably won't lose, but we probably won't blow MSU out of the water, either. One way or the other, though, this week is just like any other week in the SEC... you play at a high level or you risk defeat. Hopefully the offense will continue to make steps in the right direction, the defense will continue to play at a high level, and that we can leave Starkvegas with the win in hand and a healthy squad heading back to Tuscaloosa.

Hope for the best.

2009 SEC West Preview & Predictions

outsidethesidelines — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

In attempting to predict the SEC last year, I simply went through each member school's schedule and made definitive picks, game-by-game, and then compiled everything at the end to determine the overall standings and the division champions. For the 2009 season, however, I decided to scrap that format. As appealing as picking individual games can be simply because of its definitive nature, in many ways it is just a waste of time because there is just entirely too much random chance involved in each particular game, and on the whole it's far better to simply view the season in its entirety instead of trying to dissect its individual components from the outset.

To that end, this year I'm going to focus more on teams as a whole and make final predictions from there, thus omitting the individual game predictions. Moreover, unlike last year where I predicted the entire SEC, this year I'm going to focus only on the SEC West. My thought is that unless the terrorists successfully carry out jihad against Gainesville, the Gators are going to win the East by a mile, and frankly if you aren't a fan of one of the other five SEC Eastern Division members, who really cares what order they go in two through six? Thus, here goes my SEC West preview and predictions for 2009:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Coming into the season as the prohibitive favorites for the first time in ages, a quick look reveals why the prognosticators have been so high on the Tide. This is the most talented team we've seen in Tuscaloosa in ages, and the defensive side of the ball should probably be stronger than any defense the Tide has fielded since 1992. With the strength of the front seven -- a front seven that could legitimately feature three All-American candidates -- 'Bama should once again field an elite run defense. The loss of Rashad Johnson won't help things, but 'Bama led the SEC in conference play last year in pass efficiency defense, and by returning every other member of the two-deep rotation in the defensive backfield -- not to mention additions from Dre Kirkpatrick and Burton Scott -- a drop-off in performance is unlikely. Furthermore, things could even better, because for the first team since 2002, Alabama looks to have the pieces in place to at least be a solid pass rushing team, and even a solid, consistent pass rush would work wonders for the overall pass defense given the quality of defensive backs the Tide has.

The offense, too, has more than its fair share of strengths. Mike Johnson is one of the best guards in the country, and Colin Peek will be one of the conference's upper echelon tight ends if he can stay relatively healthy. Of course there is Julio Jones, already probably the greatest pure wide receiver in the history of Alabama football, but aside from him the rest of the receiving corps is deep with many talented playmakers in the fold. Likewise, the backfield is loaded with elite talent including the likes of Mark Ingram, Roy Upchurch, Trent Richardson, and others. And as an additional matter, quality depth on both sides of the ball is better than we have in years in Tuscaloosa.

With that glowing overview in mind, however, this is far from a flawless team. Greg McElroy has made tremendous amounts of progress in the past 18 months, and he has done effectively all that the coaching staff has asked him to do until this point. I think 'Bama fans can be as confident as can reasonably be expected with him under center, but until you step under center against a hostile defense in a real, live situation, frankly you can never really know what to expect. I think it's fair to say that the reasonable expectation for McElroy right now is that he will provide solid play at the quarterback position, but that is not to say anyone should be overly shocked if he suddenly turned into a liability.

The real concern, though, is the offensive line. The ideal situation for the Tide, of course, is to have the line mow over opponents like last year, dominating the game and turning McElroy into a game manager. Unfortunately, there's no such guarantee of that. The official depth chart will not be released until next week, but that notwithstanding, the starting five is this, going left to right: James Carpenter, Mike Johnson, William Vlachos, Barrett Jones, and Drew Davis. And I'll be frank, though quality depth is much improved, I think we should be a bit concerned with this group. Barrett Jones may play well at right guard (and I figure he is at least decent), but his presence is a major surprise, and we won't be able to give Drew Davis near the help from backs and tight ends that we did a year ago without having Andre Smith locking down the other side. Mike Johnson should do well again, but while James Carpenter and William Vlachos look to be solid players, a step down in performance from what we had a year ago at those positions is probably to be expected. As a whole, I don't think you have to worry about the line being bad -- far from it, I think the line should be pretty good -- but by the same token, I think we'll struggle somewhat in pass protection this year (as we did last year), and in the running game this line probably won't be able to consistently annihilate opponent's at the point of attack like it's predecessor did a year ago. That translates into putting more pressure on McElroy and forcing him to make more plays in the passing game, all of which could turn relatively easy wins into close games, and close wins into close losses.

Finally, special teams remains a legitimate concern for the Tide. Our coverage units should do really well simply because the great athletes we will be able to put on special teams, but the rest remains a concern. There is no doubting that Javier Arenas is an elite returner who will generate his fair share of big plays, but his decision making ability on punt returns is highly questionable at best, and many times last year he gave the opposition points on turnovers as a result of his poor decision making. Moreover, Leigh Tiffin will probably remain highly inconsistent at best (even when he is healthy), and frankly we do not want to see him trotting on the field with the game on the line. Likewise, he doesn't routinely get great distance and / or hang time on his kick-offs, another concern. Along those same lines, P.J. Fitzgerald at punter is a concern as well. He has slowly progressed and improved in his time at Alabama, but he's a small kid with an average-at-best leg, so he has most likely reached his peak. The smart money is clearly on yet another year in which Fitzgerald cannot produce great distance or hang time on his punts. As a result, despite some likely good coverage units and big plays from Javier Arenas, special teams isn't likely to be a strength for the Tide in 2009, and may in fact even be a liability.

Fortunately for Alabama the schedule does set up nicely. The opener against Virginia Tech will be a tough one -- and a loss there, at the very least, likely eliminates the Tide from BCS bowl contention (unless they can run the table from there) -- but a win there and it's relatively easily sledding until the road trip to Oxford the second week of October. Likewise, even after the Rebels, Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina, and UT-Chattanooga remain on the schedule, all four of which should be wins. An upset loss here and there wouldn't be a shock, but the defense and the coaching is good enough to guarantee at least nine wins barring either a complete meltdown by either McElroy, or a terrible run of injury luck.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Bobby Petrino's debut campaign in Fayetteville has about as many obstacles as expected, but things seemingly look much better for year two. It's clear that Petrino and company are still rebuilding the Razorbacks, but this is a much better squad than what we faced last year in Fayetteville, and all of those teams that got an easy win over the Hogs last year won't be so lucky in 2009.

The biggest single addition for Arkansas comes at the quarterback position. The Hogs spent most of last year with Casey and Nathan Dick at quarterback, and suffered the consquences thereof. Neither of the two were legitimate SEC caliber players, but all of that changes this year with the arrival of the gargantuan Ryan Mallett. A former five-star recruit from Texarkana, Mallett played as a freshman for Michigan before transferring to Fayetteville after the arrival of Rich Rodriguez. Mallett will start in 2009 for the Hogs, and in doing so he will not only be a major upgrade over both of the Dick sisters, but he'll have the strongest arm of any SEC quarterback. The reasonable expectation at this point is that Mallett will be one of the conference's top quarterbacks.

And, even aside from Mallett, there are a lot of other promising players at the skill positions for the Hogs. Tight end D.J. Williams is probably the best that the conference has to offer, and scatback Michael Smith -- who led the SEC in all purpose yardage last year -- is probably the best back you've never heard of. He's small, but he has great speed and agility, he's surprisingly effective as an inside returner, and he's much more durable than you would expect given his small frame. Likewise, with Dennis Johnson, De'Anthony Curtis, Broderick Green, and Ronnie Wingo rounding out the rest of the backfield, it's a highly talented group. Moreover, while the wide receiver corps doesn't really feature any truly great playmaker, it's a deep, solid group of guys who have shown that they can get the job done.

The real concern on the offensive side of the ball is the line. Three starters return from a year ago, and a fourth starter (Mitch Petrus) is actually a player who started in 2007. Unfortunately for the Hogs, though, All-American center Jonathon Luigs is gone, and in general the returning starters are the ones who were weak links a year ago. The tackles, in particular, Ray Dominguez and DeMarcus Love, have struggled with edge rushers, and if anything both of those guys probably should be playing inside at guard. All in all, it's just a bit of a concern for the Hogs. If these guys can consistently keep Mallett upright, the Hogs look to have a very potent offense, and one that could give even the best defenses legitimate trouble. On the other hand, a struggling offensive line will almost certainly slow what must be the unit that carries the Hogs to victory in 2009.

The defense, too, remains a major concern. The Hogs struggled defensively in 2007, and were even worse last year. In 2008 they were dead last in the conference in run defense, and the pass defense wasn't much better. Some steps may be made in the right direction in 2009 -- a couple of JUCO transfers in the defensive backfield should help, plus most of the defensive line returns -- but they still have a lot of issues, and it's unlikely that the Hogs will be able to move out of the cellar in most defensive categories in 2009.

All in all, the Hogs are a team that is clearly moving in the right direction, and they will be a dangerous team in 2009. Last year they knocked off LSU, Auburn, and almost beat Ole Miss. Rest assured they will get a couple of big-name upsets this year as well. Though sheer strength of schedule will dictate a few more roadblocks for the Hogs in 2009 -- five teams on their schedule are currently ranked in the AP top 15 -- this is a dangerous team, and one that could really surprise a lot of people if the defense can show some signs of life.

Auburn Tigers

Following their worst season in a decade, Auburn made a different kind of splash hire by bringing in former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik. Though near suicidal upon first hearing the news, most Auburn fans are now predictably bathing in the Kool-Aid, but looking at the Tigers in an objective light reveals that their fan base probably had it right to start with. On the whole, it's nearly impossible to believe their fall from grace in recent years. After going a combined 34-5 from 2004-2006, Auburn now finds itself with scholarship levels reminiscent of a program undergoing major NCAA sanctions, and possessing a depth chart paper thin in terms of both elite talent and quality depth. Things are so bad that almost any true freshman -- though they came from a highly unimpressive recruiting class -- healthy enough to play will be required do so in 2009, and a few walk-ons will be expected to contribute as well. From the outset, the mere fact that the athletic director is publicly trying to cool expectations for the program for the next couple of years ought to tell you all you need to know about their future prospects.

Chris Todd surprised many when he won the starting quarterback job all of a week into Fall camp, but despite a surgically repaired throwing shoulder, Todd's starting job probably has more to do with the shortcomings of the other candidates than it does his own skills. Neil Caudle is a bust now, as is Kodi Burns, and they are going to try to run some Wildcat-type stuff with Burns at the helm. But, of course, no one really knows what to expect of the newfangled Auburn offense. It's going to be a spread offense, but apparently one that is run-heavy, and it's also going to be a hurry-up offense to boot. And yes that's a major break from offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn's track record, and yes they are going to run some Wildcat as well. So, no, I don't have any clue as to what they are going to do, and frankly I doubt anyone else does either.

And, truth be told, it probably doesn't matter one way or the other regardless of what they do. Todd is likely to be a below average quarterback, and the offensive line looks to struggle. Lee Ziemba and Ryan Pugh look good (when healthy), but the rest of the line looks to be in major trouble. Byron Isom, Mike Berry, and Andrew McCain are nothing special, and the depth on this unit is ridiculously thin. A kid like Chris Capps would easily see playing time with this group. And making matters worse, there is zero proven depth at wide receiver. About the only good thing you can say about this offense is that the tailbacks look to be a solid group. On the whole, though, given the overall lack of depth, good quarterback play, and game-changers at the skill positions, this offense looks to struggle regardless of what type of offensive system they implement, which is exactly the reason I'm not going to waste any time here trying to predict exactly what they are going to do offensively. Again, wishbone, run and shoot, whatever, the end result is almost certainly the same.

On defense, too, Auburn has a lot of problems. Last year's group was strong one hindered only by an incompetent defense, but a lot has changed since then. Guys like Trey Blackmon and Jerraud Powers left early, and what is left is largely a shell of what once was. The entire group is thin as a whole, and outside of Josh Bynes and Antonio Coleman, it's hard to identify many defenders who are clearly above average at this point. Mike McNeil is a fine player at safety, but he broke a leg in Spring practice, and at this point it looks like he is going to miss a few weeks of the season at least. Eltoro Freeman is a JUCO transfer who could really help out and be an impact player, but he has missed time this Fall with both an arm injury and a leg injury. All in all, much like the offense, the defense features very few top-end players, and almost no quality depth whatsoever.

On the whole, Auburn has a fairly decent starting 22, but considering modern day college football is a game that needs 50-55 good, solid contributors in order to play at a high level, that doesn't do them much good. Again, quality depth is the name of the game in football, and Auburn possesses almost none of that precious commodity. The schedule isn't easy in 2009, either, and frankly only Furman and Ball State are guaranteed wins. Of course Auburn will get more wins than that, I'm sure, but the point remains that wins likely won't come frequently for the '09 Tigers, and the few that do will likely be the result of some very close, hard fought contests. Much like last year, Auburn expects to be fighting tooth and nail with Mississippi State for last place in the SEC West.

LSU Tigers

After a disappointing 2008 campaign, the Bayou Bengal faithful hopes for improvement in 2009, and in all fairness they probably should get it. Jordan Jefferson, at the least, shouldn't be quite as disastrous as Jarrett Lee was a year ago, and while John Chavis is not a spectacular hire at defensive coordinator -- and in fact one I don't like in the long run -- he's an upgrade over what they had a year ago. As a result,

At quarterback the job belongs all to Jordan Jefferson now, and we'll have to see what he has made of. The LSU Hype Machine naturally has him as a superstar in the works, but a more objective view reveals more question marks and uncertainty. He played decent football last year -- relative to what Jarrett Lee did anyway -- but nevertheless he struggled to complete passes, and he took a ton of sacks thanks to his poor decision-making abilities. Based on what Jefferson has shown us, he looks to be a solid player eventually, but he still has a lot to prove, and all of these purple and gold notions just assuming that it's only a matter of time before he becomes a star quarterback are really just wishful thinking more than anything else. For now, what we can reasonably say about Jefferson is that he has a nice physical skill set with good long-term upside, and that if the LSU coaching staff uses him wisely, he might not be a top-end player this year but he will at least provide solid play and not turn the LSU offense into a trainwreck like Jarrett Lee did a year ago.

The rest of the skill positions are generally in good shape in Baton Rouge. Brandon LaFell will be one of the conference's top receivers, and likewise Richard Dickson will be one of the conference's top tight ends. Charles Scott is one of the conference's better tailbacks, and there is a lot of depth in the backfield with Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy, and incoming freshman Mike Ford. Likewise, while I don't think Russell Shephard will ever be an above average quarterback in this league, he's clearly an elite athlete, and I'm sure the LSU coaching staff will find some ways to take advantage of that this year. The only real concern at the skill positions is a lack of experienced depth, but the Tigers have recruited extremely well, and tremendous amounts of raw talent and athleticism are everywhere, so they should likely be fine even though they are not particularly experienced. Besides, experience at the skill positions tends to be a bit overrated, and in any event the Tigers aren't likely to face a legitimate test until the fifth week of the season when they go on the road to face Georgia, so again lack of experience shouldn't be a major concern.

The real concern with LSU's offense in many ways, much like Alabama, is with the offensive line. Jefferson is still green and ideally the coaching staff would be able to use a highly successful running game to take pressure off of him, but again there is no guarantee that will happen. Ciron Black is clearly the best tackle in the conference now, and Joseph Barksdale is more than adequate at right tackle. However, the interior linemen aren't necessariliy strengths. Gone are left guard Herman Johnson and center Brett Helms -- both punishing blockers in the running game -- and while Lyle Hitt returns at right guard, I've always considered him to be the weak link of the line. Making matters worse, T-Bob Hebert was expected to start at center after the departure of Helms, but he has been banged up in Fall camp, and that too is in question now. Moreover, this is a young line that probably doesn't have as much depth as you would at first imagine. The bottom line is that center / guard play of the interior linemen is exponentially important to the success of the running game, and if LSU has trouble here -- regardless of their strengths at the tackle position -- the running game will suffer, and more pressure will be put on Jefferson to make plays on his own. Again, as was the case with Alabama and Greg McElroy, that could very well result in more mistakes from the quarterback position, which can easily turn relatively easy wins into nailbiters, and close wins into close losses.

Defensively, the Bayou Bengals look to rebound from its worst showing in years in 2008. Truth be told, though, the LSU defense a year ago was a tale of two stories... a really good run defense, mixed with a really bad pass defense. And the bad news for the Tigers is that the cornerstones of the run defense -- the defensive line and linebacker Derry Beckwith -- have all moved on to the next level, so there are legitimate question marks there. Most of the defensive backfield returns, but again it is returning a unit that couldn't stop the pass, despite the fact that they were constantly helped by a good pass rush. Nevertheless, LSU has boatloads of talent all over the defense, and the real question is just whether or not they can take full advantage of it. They couldn't do that a year ago and struggled, but it will take an equally bad showing by both coaches and players to get a repeat performance of that poor effort in 2009.

All in all, LSU is a difficult projection, easily the most difficult of the entire SEC, and perhaps even the country. You still have questions at quarterback, and the running game may not go as smoothly as many assume. Furthermore, while the talent is there on the defensive side of the ball, and while John Chavis is an upgrade over Peveto and Mallory, he himself on occasion did field some bad defenses in Knoxville despite having loads of elite talent up on ol' Rocky Top. Plus, each and every year since arriving in Baton Rouge, Les Miles and company have lost games to some not so impressive teams that they should have easily won, and that will likely continue in 2009. On the other hand, LSU is easily still one of the nationally elite programs in terms of raw talent and athleticism, and the schedule once again is doing them a huge favor. Their athletic department continued a commitment to cupcakes approach to non-conference scheduling in 2009 -- getting 0-12 Washington, mixed in with Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Tulane -- and that combined with the luck of drawing the likely three worst SEC teams (Auburn, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt) means that they could play very poorly and still easily sleepwalk to seven wins. As I said two weeks ago, if I had to give all the possible outcomes, I'd say LSU could go anywhere from 7-5 to 11-1, and I'd give them a 20% chance of each individual outcome. Exactly where will they end up along that spectrum? It'll probably come down to the same two things it did a year ago: coaching and quarterback play, but trying to predict exactly where cannot be anything more than a pure guess at this point. Only with ignorance could you be particularly certain of that prediction at this point.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

After showing some signs of life for almost the first time in a decade, the Bulldogs came crashing back down in 2008, and the struggles brought a new regime to Mississippi State. Out is Sylvester Croom, and for the first time in almost 20 years a non-Alabama alum is roaming the sidelines in Starkville, as Dan Mullen takes over for the Bullies. And in all fairness to MSU, it's not a bad hire. Mullen is a young, energetic coach who is on the rise, and one who already has a couple of national championship rings on his resume. His hire may very well have been better than either Lane Kiffin or Gene Chizik.

That notwithstanding, though, it looks to be a very harsh reality for the Bulldogs in 2009. Mullen may have been hired because of his offensive background, but it's hard to see him breathing any life into this offense in 2009. It's been hapless for years, and with the 5'10 and 195 pound Tyson Lee leading the offense this year, it's hard to see that changing. It will probably be a major shock if he can withstand a year's worth of pounding in the SEC, and even if he can he's not likely to be very effective anyway. True freshman Tyler Russell is the quarterback of the future in any event, and his reign will likely begin sometime this year in Starkville. That's good news in one sense because Russell is a much more talented player than Lee, and he's a bitter fit for Mullen's spread option system, but I'll let you do the math on the success true freshmen quarterbacks have in this league while surrounded by poor supporting casts.

And speaking of that poor supporting cast, I think that's probably the nicest way to put it. The wide receiver corps has some problems, to put it mildly. Brandon McRae is a fine wide receiver, but who knows how he will rebound from the gruesome, Prothro-esque broken leg he suffered last year against Ole Miss? And aside from McRae, there really are no proven commodities. JUCO transfer Leon Berry will be counted on heavily, and from there true freshmen like Chad Bumphis will get a great chance at playing time. Mullen's spread needs a lot of quality receivers, and the Bulldogs just don't have it right now. Likewise, the offensive line doesn't look very good either. To be sure, most of the starters return from a year ago, but MSU has struggled in the trenches for ages now, and the physical brand of football that the Dawgs often played with under Croom will do them no good under Mullen. How will the MSU linemen handle the transition to the spread option? It's anyone's guess, but nearly everyone will be surprised if they do it with any considerable degree of success.

Probably the best player State has, period, is tailback Anthony Dixon, but even with him you have to worry. He's a big, powerful running back who gets the job done between the tackles. Now, one of you readers, remind me... how successful has Urban Meyer been with big, powerful, between the tackle running backs? His only success with them has been signing them, and then watching them flame out as recruiting busts. His offense has no real need for such a player, and Mullen's might not at MSU either. I'm sure he'll try to work Dixon into the mix as much as possible just because he's one of the few talented players he has, but at the end of the day the point remains that Dixon is built to run out of the I-formation and in between the tackles, not as the centerpiece of the spread option. Look for Christian Ducre to get more of a role there simply because he's a better fit for the scheme.

And the defense is probably in just as bad of shape as the offense. Defense was the strong point of the Croom teams, but only three starters are returning in 2009. The defensive line is both small and without any great amount of depth, so much so that when JUCO transfer Pernell McPhee -- a good player in his own right, in all fairness -- stepped on campus, he probably became State's top lineman almost instantaneously. That's good news for State, but the bad news is that he'll likely have to be a truly dominant player just to give the rest of the line a fighting chance. Likewise, the defensive secondary is effectively a complete makeover. Marcus Washington returns at cornerback, and Damein Anderson looks to start opposite him, with Derek Pegues gone, the rest of the Bulldog secondary seemingly either lacks the size or speed (or both) needed to be high-end defensive backs in this conference. Last year's defensive backfield was a good unit for the Dawgs, but it'd be a major surprise if this revamped unit could pull off the trick again this year.

The only good news for the Dawgs on defense comes at linebacker. If Jamar Chaney successfully returns from his leg injury, he'll be a top end player, and perhaps the most underrated defensive player in the entire conference. Aside from Chaney, both K.J. Wright and Chris White are solid players in their own right, and if this unit can stay healthy, it has a chance to be a good one. Unfortunately, the rest of the defense looks to struggle so much in front of them and behind them that it probably won't give them much of a chance to shine.

As I've said before, I've always had a soft spot for the traditionally hapless Bullies, and I like Dan Mullen to boot, but objectively speaking it looks to be a long year ahead for them. They'll start off with a good fluff win over Jackson State, but from there the schedule is brutal. They will almost certainly be underdogs in every single conference game, Georgia Tech will go through them like a hot knife through butter, and even Houston and Middle Tennessee State probably aren't sure wins.

Ole Miss Rebels

The media darlings of the SEC this year, Ole Miss made a big jump last year, and many in the national media are betting that they will make yet another big jump in 2009. Yet, interestingly enough, they were picked to finish third in their own division at SEC Media Days. And that brings me to a point that I keep coming across... the further away you get from the Ole Miss program, the more heightened the expectations are for the 2009 season. The closer you get to it, the lower the expectations get. Personally, I think that is because the people who follow the program on a closer level than the national pundits are able to spot some flaws and weaknesses that the national pundits are apparently overlooking in their rush to deify the Rebels as the next big thing.

And make no mistake about it, despite the hype in some circles, this team does have a lot of holes and a lot of concerns. Jevan Snead is a fine quarterback, and the backfield is generally loaded, but the offensive line looks to be a major concern. The loss of Michael Oher cannot be overstated, simply because he was an elite talent and because the Rebels do not have anywhere even near his level of ability now that can replace him. Many hoped Bobby Massie would be able to do that, but after arriving in Oxford only about three weeks back, that is highly unlikely. And making matters worse, both starting guards are gone as well, and frankly the replacements don't look to be anything overly special. Of the remaining linemen, only John Jerry looks to be one of the best in his conference at his position, and the rest of the starting five have more of the look of a below average line than anything else. It's basically the exact same problem Alabama has, only that the Rebels don't have anywhere near the number of talented players to fill the holes.

A lesser concern on the offensive side of the ball can also be found at wide receiver. With Mike Wallace gone to the NFL, only Shay Hodges remains in Oxford. Hodges is a fine player in his own right, but from there things get dicy. Dexter McCluster will assume the role of a full-time starter now in Wallace's absence, and while McCluster certainly has the talent, he thrived last year in a jack of all trades role, and no one knows how he will do as more of a traditional, full-time wide receiver. And after McCluster, the proven commodities are pretty non-existent. Players like Lionel Breaux and Markeith Summers aren't necessarily bad players, but by the same token they aren't the ultra-elite athletes that you find at a place like LSU where you can almost just assume that you can plug and play them and they will perform at a high level. The Rebels are probably going to have to rely heavily on true freshman Pat Patterson.

And the defensive side of the ball has more concerns than the offense. Peria Jerry was the key to Ole Miss' stout run defense last year, and he is now with the Atlanta Falcons, and just like with Michael Oher, the Rebels do not seem to have a player of comparable quality to replace him. Ted Laurent and Lawson Scott will play a lot inside, but I really don't think they would play for any other SEC contender, and for all of his recruiting hype and academic saga, Jerrell Powe has done nothing of note to this point. Likewise, at linebacker, it's a thin unit with no true star players. It's not exactly what you what you dream of having when you prepare for a tough run through an SEC schedule.

Defensive end is a clear strength, and if Greg Hardy finally gets things together, he along with Marcus Tillman and Kentrell Lockett will probably form the best defensive end rotation in the SEC. Unfortunately, that strength is off-set by more concerns in the secondary. They really struggled against the pass last year -- despite having the conference's best pass rush -- and while three starters return, none of those returning players seem to be particularly good. More struggles against the pass seem likely for 2009. Moreover, Houston Nutt's two major recruiting additions to the defensive backfield have already flamed out. Jamar Horsnby, the five-star who washed out of Florida after being caught using a dead woman's credit card, has been kicked off the team after yet another run-in with the law. His next stop will likely be jail. And speaking of jail, the other big recruiting addition to the defensive backfield for Nutt in 2009, Tig Barksdale, also spent some time there recently after being arrested on charges of DUI and driving without a license. Now, Barksdale will not enroll this Fall as a result of "medical issues."

So what do you have when you put it all together with the Rebels? You've got a good quarterback, a good backfield, a couple of good receivers, and a great pass rush. But you've also got major concerns with the offensive line, a middling linebacker corps, a suspect interior to the defensive line, a secondary that will likely struggle again, and a team with very little depth at almost every single position. And your head coach has disappointed almost every single time high preseason expectations have been placed upon his teams. Does that sound like a championship team to you? I'll let you be the judge of that.

Of course, this is not to overly denigrate the Rebels. They went 9-4 a year ago, and they have enough strengths to knock off almost anyone they face on any given day. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them knock off either Alabama or LSU, or both for that matter. However, before we deify the Rebels, it should be kept in mind that they have enough weaknesses to where they could just as easily lose those big games, and also lose some that they are expected to win. When everyone looks back on the 2008 Rebels, they love to remember them as the team that beat Florida in the Swamp, the team that blew out LSU, and the team that spanked Texas Tech. Yet the fact that they lost at home to Vanderbilt, lost at home to South Carolina, lost to Wake Forest, and needed a squeaker to hold off 5-7 Arkansas gets completely overlooked. Bottom line, the Rebels have enough strengths to win a lot of games and get some big wins, but they also have enough weaknesses to where they are also likely to lose some games they should not, and once again, just like last year, be left outside the championship chase.

Final SEC West Predictions

(1) Alabama: 10-2 (6-2)*

(1) LSU: 10-2 (6-2)*

(3) Ole Miss: 9-3 (5-3)

(4) Arkansas: 7-5 (3-5)

(5) Auburn: 5-7 (2-6)

(6) Mississippi State: 3-9 (1-7)

* A two-way tie atop the SEC West between Alabama and LSU, with the winner of the November 7th Alabama v. LSU game in Tuscaloosa advancing to Atlanta to face the Florida Gators.

SEC West Pre-Season Breakdown

Richard Pittman — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 11:49:13 -0000

The first goal of the season for LSU this year is to win the SEC West. The task will not be at all easy. There are good teams in this division, and while Alabama and Ole Miss have gotten a lot of attention, I believe Arkansas and Auburn will probably be dangerous opponents as well. Arkansas moreso than Auburn, but don't mark a check in the W column for our game against Auburn yet.

Anyway, here is a brief breakdown of how I see our opponents in the SEC West, the obstacles they have in front of them and their strengths as we all are preparing to start another big season in the SEC.

Alabama: The defensive front seven should be outstanding, probably the best in the conference. They will make tons of plays and be in the backfield much of the night. The secondary struggled towards the end of last year, and the loss of Rashad Johnson at free safety is a significant blow. If there was one position on the defense that Alabama fans considered to perhaps be below par last year, it was cornerback, and some are expecting true freshman Dre Kirkpatrick to come in and be an immediate upgrade. I always find claims that a true freshman can come into a top program and immediately become a key player at a tough position somewhat dubious, but we shall see.

On offense, the big questions are how will Alabama replace John Parker Wilson at quarterback, and how will the offensive line perform? Junior Greg McElroy will be a more-than-adequate replacement for Wilson, who frankly wasn't that good. The real concern, though, is at offensive line. No team has to replace more of its offensive line skill than Alabama. Everyone knows about the loss of All-American left tackle Andre Smith, but the Crimson Tide lost two other starters on the offensive line as well, including All-Conference center Antoine Caldwell, who was the leader of the group. If you can't block effectively, you can't do much of anything on offense. If they get the blocking, the running backs should be about as good as last year, but they continue to struggle to find receiver depth behind Julio Jones.

Bama is probably the toughest competition in the West. I think they have questions like a bunch of other teams, but unless the offensive line is a disaster or injuries devastate their team, they will be a very tough opponent again this year.

Arkansas: I find this team pretty scary. It's not just that they beat us last year, though that certainly affects things. It's the fact that they have good players at a lot of positions. Running back Michael Smith may be pocket-sized, and needs to cut down his carries if he hopes to stay healthy, but he is perhaps the most dangerous back in the conference. Arkansas's receiver corps, led by TE/WR hybrid DJ Williams is as good as anyone's in the conference. Bobby Petrino is an outstanding offensive coach, and if Ryan Mallett is as good as advertised, this Arkansas team will put up some offensive fireworks.

The defense has a long way to go. There are some good players on this defense, but it was a unit that ranked dead last in run defense last year, and 10th in pass defense. To make matters worse, one of their expected starting corners is lost for the season to a torn ACL. The defense will need to play much better than it did last year, but they were very young in 2008. You can expect some natural improvement between the seasons.

The short story here is that I think of Arkansas this year pretty much exactly what I thought of Ole Miss last year: not talented enough to run with the big boys but with enough good players at key positions to be dangerous. Do you remember how that turned out for Ole Miss? The schedule is awfully difficult for this team though, as they travel to LSU, Bama, Ole Miss, and Florida, and also have to play Georgia. They play every team in the SEC that is expected to be good, and get 4 of them on the road. That's brutal.

Auburn: Last year was a train wreck, leading to a mid-season coordinator firing and then a post-season head coach-firing, and a second train wreck when a new coach was hired. The offense was awful in 2008, ranking 2nd to last in points per game. Auburn went and added a couple nice receivers on signing day, but for the most part the personnel is going to be the same on that side of the ball. Chris Todd will be the starting QB again. Much of last year's starting offensive line returns. They just hope that Gus Malzahn can get more out of these same players than Tony Franklin and his successor were able to get. That's actually a pretty tenable position.

Defensively, Auburn had a pretty solid group last year, but they have a fair bit to replace, especially in the middle of the field, as Auburn loses its two best defensive tackles and its middle linebacker. I think this year will be a struggle for Auburn, but if Chizik is at all up to the job (no guarantees there), I think they should be able to win a couple conference games and maybe sneak into a bowl game. An upset of a better-regarded team is not out of the question. But then again, a 4-win season is not out of the question either.

Mississippi State: Has disaster written all over it. The Bulldogs were the worst offensive team last year, scoring only 15 points per game, and were one of the worst defensive teams last year as well. It is hard to name one particularly dangerous offensive player. Senior running back Anthony Dixon is entering his 4th year as MSU's primary running back, but has a pretty pedestrian average of 3.98 ypc over the course of his career. He's also never really had a very good offensive line, but nothing should change there. He also enters the season with an off-season DUI under his belt and may be suspended for the first game or two.

Add in that the Bulldogs do not have an outstanding quarterback and are trying to transition from a power running game to a spread under new coach Dan Mullen, all without really having the wide receivers to run it yet, and you have the makings of a poor offensive season as they transition to the Mullen system that was so successful in Florida.

Defensively, the Bulldogs should be respectable as always. Last year's poor stats are deceptive, because so much of the blame rests with an offense that could not keep the defense off the field, but they lose a good number of starters from last year's unit. The strength of the team is in the linebackers, where Jamar Chaney and K.J. Wright are arguably the best players on the team regardless of position. The secondary should be a nightmare, however.

Ole Miss: They still have one of the best QBs in the conference, and a very good set of wide receivers, but I wonder if the overall talent level is all that high. I think Ole Miss snuck up on some teams last year and caught LSU in a down year, but they won't be able to use that formula for success this year. Jevan Snead, Dexter McCluster, and Shay Hodge form a great nucleus for a passing team, but the offensive line has to be completely rebuilt, and no running back on the team is particularly scary. I'm sure the Red Cup Rebellion guys will love hearing that.

Defensively, the front 4 is very good if healthy. Greg Hardy may be the best defensive lineman in the conference if he can ever get his foot completely healed, and he's actually pretty effective in a limited role even when he's not healthy. Kentrell Lockett and Marcus Tillman round out a very good 3-end rotation, and Ted Laurent is a solid veteran defensive tackle. They will be counting on Jerrell Powe to build on his solid freshman campaign. Behind the defensive line is a lot of question marks. Ole Miss had the worst passing defense in the conference on a "per game" basis, though the overall defense was solid, and they managed to stop the high-powered Texas Tech offense in their bowl game. Looking through their roster, it is hard to pick out a linebacker or defensive back who looks like a difference-maker.

Ole Miss has the easiest rout to Atlanta of any of the most-discussed contenders. They miss Georgia and Florida and they get Bama and LSU at home. They could potentially lose one of those two games and still win the West outright if they don't stumble against a lesser opponent.

Of course, we're going to have to see how all of this shakes out. Every team, even the good ones, have questions and areas of concern, including us. Also, injuries can derail anyone's season, including ours. Upsets are also possible, each and every week. I think we have as good of a shot at winning the west as anyone, except that our tough schedule looms large.

Dan Mullen is Excited. Very, Very Excited. -- Mississippi State at SEC Media Days

cocknfire — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 04:52:15 -0000

More photos » by Butch Dill - AP

'I'm excited about having my picture taken. In fact, I'm excited about being excited about having my picture taken.'

Browse more photos »

Here's a bit of Mississippi St. Bulldogs Dan Mullen's press conference Wednesday at SEC Media Days that is representative of his entire presentation:

I think to answer your question, directly, about being excited, I'm real excited to be here. One that makes this league great is the excitement, the passion, is the importance. ... It makes it awful exciting when you get off that bus, you see that energy, that excitement.

Mullen was excited about a list of things, including

--Being at SEC Media Days
--Being the head football coach at Mississippi State
--"To get this season going"
--His staff
--To see his staff after a break
--"To be involved in such a historic game" -- against Jackson State
--"To get back on the practice field"
--Meeting his fellow SEC head coaches

In fact, "excited" or "excitement" appears 13 times in his opening statement alone, and several other times throughout the transcript of his interview. And the coach is not alone. Offensive tackle Derek Sherrod: "There is a lot of excitement around Mississippi." We must presume he meant around the state, about Mississippi State.

"Coach Mullen is an up-tempo guy," added linebacker K.J. Wright. "He has a huge personality." Then, things got a bit optimistic. "He has won a national championship. He has something we don't have. Coach is a winner. We are going to learn from him, and duplicate what he did at Florida."

Let's hope Wright isn't getting a little bit too ... well, excited. After all, it's easier to get excited than to win, as Sherrod inadvertently displayed when he tried to answer a question about how to transfer offseason excitement into wins. He finally settled on, "I think that the high energy is a very valuable thing to a team. We have plenty of that."

That comes in lieu of demonstrated proficiency in passing offense, rushing offense, total offense, rushing defense and total defense. The Bulldogs landed in the bottom half of the SEC in all those measures in 2008. And changing the team will take as much time and, yes, as much energy as Mullen can muster.

He seems like the right man for the job. Admittedly, this was just a press conference. But to the eyes of someone who has never seen him talk at any length before, the excitable Mullen seemed to your humble correspondent like someone who was also bright, confident and competent.

It's good to be excited; it's even better to have something to be exicted about. Mississippi State fans might have to wait a while before they have the latter. Then again, they might just have the right man to give them some of both.

UK vs. Mississippi St.: Stats, thoughts, and a prediction

Ken Howlett — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 07:48:18 -0000

This is a game UK absolutely must win if they are the least bit interested in reaching seven wins, thus assuring a bowl bid. But, if Kentucky is looking for that extra bit of motivation for their game (otherwise known as a 'must win') at Mississippi State (3-5 overall, 1-3 in the SEC) today, they only need to look at last week's scoreboard, and last year's MSU contest.

There's no need to rehash the 63-5 "Swamp Stomp." If a 58 point loss doesn't motivate ya, you can turn in your equipment at the Nutter Center. As for last year's UK home loss to MSU (31-14); that game served as the lowest point in the season, because Kentucky lost to a team that they were much better than, and they lost at home. It can best be described as an uninspired effort. Three UK turnovers, along with Bulldog running backs Anthony Dixon and Christian Ducre ensured UK's unexpected demise at the hands of MSU.

For those Kentucky players who participated in both last years MSU debacle and last week's Gator death-dive, this is what you've been waiting for; an opportunity to redeem yourself.

Mississippi State's Wins and Losses

MSU's wins have come against Southeastern Louisiana (34-10), Vanderbilt (17-14), and Middle Tennessee (31-22). Although they have only those three victories, they have won two of their last three games. MSU has lost to Louisiana Tech (24-14), Auburn (3-2, yes, 3-2), Georgia Tech (38-7), LSU (34-24), and Tennessee (34-3).

Mississippi St. Offensive Personnel of Interest

Quarterback Tyson Lee: 5'11", 190 lb junior -- Lee took over the starting quarterback spot from Wesley Carrol in the LSU game (five games ago), and has played solidly since. On the year, Lee has completed 88 of 141 passes (62.4%) for 858 yards and two touchdowns. Lee came to MSU in January from Itawamba Community College in Mississippi, where he was named a JUCO 1st Team All-America. In his two year JUCO career he threw for 4,432 yards and 31 touchdowns (he completed over 65% of his passes). The Bulldogs are 2-2 in his four starts, and he has provided the Dogs with a definite upgrade in their passing game.

Running back Anthony Dixon: 6'1", 238 lb junior -- Dixon is MSU's experienced, workhorse back. In his three year career he has played in 33 games, with 25 starts. This year Dixon has rushed for 599 yards (74.9 yards per game), he averages 4.3 yards per carry. He's also scored six touchdowns. For his career, Dixon has ran for 2,333 yards and 29 touchdowns. Dixon can also catch the ball; this year he has made eight catches for 49 yards.

Last year, in MSU's upset win over the 'Cats, Dixon rushed 25 times for 75 yards, with a receiving and rushing touchdown.

Running back Christian Ducre: 6'0", 227 lb junior -- The Tulane transfer has rushed for 217 yards, averaging 4.0 yards per rush with two touchdowns. Ducre is also the third leading receiver on the MSU squad, catching 13 passes for 112 yards and a touchdown.

Last year versus UK Ducre had a huge game: 19 rushes for 119 yards and one touchdown (a 34 yard run), which happened to seal the win for the 'Dogs. He also caught five passes for 30 yards.

Wide receiver Brandon MCrae: 6'4", 205 lb junior -- The Morehead State transfer leads the Bulldogs in receptions (37) and receiving yards with 361. He's also scored two touchdowns. Last year he played in 13 games where he caught two passes for 50 yards.

Wide receiver Aubrey Bell: 6'3", 216 lb senior -- Bell, MSU's second leading receiver, has made 25 catches for 213 yards. For his career Bell has 49 catches for 575 yards and one touchdown.

Last year versus UK, Bell made two catches for 25 yards.

Wide receiver Co-Eric Riley: 6'1", 202 lb senior -- Riley has caught 10 passes for 92 yards this year. In his 20 game career Riley has made 18 catches for 160 yards.

Mississippi State Defensive Personnel of Interest

Defensive Back Derek Pegues: 5'10", 190 lb senior -- Pegues is the Bulldog's Mr. Do-it-all. He not only mans one of the corner back spots, where he has 31 tackles and one interception, but he's also the team's most valuable special teams member: He is MSU's primary kick returner, returning 17 punts for 137 yards (8.1 average), and twenty-three kick-offs for 531 yards (23.1 average). Pegues has 4.4 speed. He was considered one of the top high school players in the nation in 2004.

Linebacker Dominic Douglas: 6'2", 235 lb senior -- Douglas leads the 'Dogs defense with 58 tackles and four tackles for loss. In his year-and-a-half career, the JUCO transfer has made 136 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, and one sack.

Linebacker K. J. Wright: 6'3", 226 lb sophomore -- Wright has 40 tackles, with 6.5 tackles for loss and two sacks.

Last year versus UK, Wright made a special teams fumble recovery.

Free safety Keith Fitzhugh: 5'11", 205 lb senior -- This year Fitzhugh has made 32 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, with one sack and two interceptions. For his career Fitzhugh has six interceptions. He is another very quick Bulldog defensive back (4.4 speed).

Defensive tackle Cortez McCraney: 6'4", 280 lb senior -- The big man in the middle has made 32 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, and two sacks. The Memphis transfer started four games last year, making 24 tackles (4.5 tackles for loss). McCraney played only one year of high school ball.

Center J.C. Brignone: 6'1", 290 lb sophomore -- Brignone is the reigning SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week after his performance against Middle Tennessee last week.

MSU Stats

MSU averages 16.5 points per game, and gives up 22.1 points per game.
MSU averages 3.4 yards per rush as a team, and allows 4.0 yards per rush.
MSU only averages 294.9 yards of total offense per game, but they give up only 298.6 total yards per game.
MSU averages only 36.5 yards per punt.
MSU converts 36% of their third down tries, but they hold their opponents to only a 33% conversion rate.
MSU is 18-27 (67%) in the red zone, and they've only scored 15 touchdowns (56%) in those 27 red zone visits.
MSU's opponents are 22-26 (85%) in red zone visits, but they have scored only 14 touchdowns (54%).
MSU has been outscored 48-37 in the fourth quarter.
MSU place kicker Adam Carlson has made only 6-10 field goal attempts. He's missed from 18, 32, 38, and 39 yards, but he's 3-3 from 40-49 yards (this is what makes coaches go crazy). Carlson also handles the kick-off duties where he has recorded zero touch backs.

UK vs. MSU SEC Statistical Comparison - SEC rank in parenthesis.

Scoring - UK 22.9 ppg (6th), MSU 16.5 ppg (12th).
Scoring defense - UK 18.2 ppg (7th), MSU 22.1 ppg (9th).
Total offense - UK 317.8 (8th), MSU 294.9 (9th).
Total defense - UK 302.6 (8th), MSU 298.6 (7th).
Rushing offense - UK 125.5 (9th), MSU 120.9 (10th).
Rushing defense - UK 137.4 (10th), MSU 144.5 (11th).
Pass offense - UK 192.2 (7th), MSU 174.0 (8th).
Pass defense - UK 165.2 (3rd), MSU 154.1 (2nd).
Sacks by - UK 19 (2nd), MSU 12 (t11th).
Sacks against - UK 7 (1st), MSU 19 (10th).
3rd Down conversions - UK 30.9% (12th), MSU 36.1 (8th).
Opp's 3rd Down conversions - UK 26.1% (3rd), MSU 33.0% (6th).
Turnover margin - UK +7 (2nd), MSU -4 (8th).

UK SEC Statistical Leaders

Receptions per game - 1. Dicky Lyons 5.5 pg.
Kick-off return average - 6. Derrick Locke 28.5 pr.
All-Purpose yardage - 6. Derrick Locke 116.0 ypg.
Punting - 1. Tim Masthay 46.0 ypp.
Tackles - t7. Braxton Kelley 8.0 pg, 9. Micah Johnson 7.7 pg.
Interceptions - t2. Trevard Lindley 4, t2. Marcus McClinton 4.

Final Thoughts

I think Randall Cobb makes the difference today. MSU coach Sylvester Croom should see things today out of Cobb that he hasn't seen on tape; Rich Brooks and Joker Phillips should have in place a number of sets, looks, and plays that we have yet to see this year. With this game serving as Cobb's first college start, I feel something special is about to happen.

If not ... I don't even want to ponder the implications of UK being 5-4 instead of 6-3.

I'm going optimistic .. UK - 24 MSU - 16

Thanks for reading, and Go Cats! beat the 'Dogs.

Beauty: The Vols, For Once, Had It

Hooper — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 00:10:30 -0000

If you were ever to ask me the most beautiful thing a football team can do with the ball, it is this:

(1st and 10) TENNESSEE drive start at 08:10.

(1st and 10) Lennon Creer rush for 10 yards to the MS41, 1ST DOWN UT (Cortez McCraney;Sean Ferguson).

(1st and 10) Lennon Creer rush for 2 yards to the MS39 (Karlin Brown;Dominic Douglas).

(2nd and 8) Lennon Creer rush for 10 yards to the MS29, 1ST DOWN UT (Zach Smith).

(1st and 10) Lennon Creer rush for 4 yards to the MS25 (Tim Bailey).

(2nd and 6) Lennon Creer rush for 4 yards to the MS21 (Zach Smith;Jasper O'Quinn).

(3rd and 2) Timeout Mississippi State, clock 05:26.

(3rd and 2) Lennon Creer rush for 3 yards to the MS18, 1ST DOWN UT (Zach Smith).

(1st and 10) Lennon Creer rush for 6 yards to the MS12 (Zach Smith).

(2nd and 4) Timeout Mississippi State, clock 04:47.

(2nd and 4) Lennon Creer rush for 1 yard to the MS11 (Karlin Brown).

(3rd and 3) Timeout Mississippi State, clock 04:38.

(3rd and 3) Lennon Creer rush for 9 yards to the MS2, 1ST DOWN UT (Zach Smith;Dominic Douglas).

(1st and 0) Lennon Creer rush for 1 yard to the MS1 (K.J. Wright;Terrell Johnson).

(2nd and 0) Lennon Creer rush for no gain to the MS1 (Terrell Johnson).

(3rd and 0) Lennon Creer rush for 1 yard to the MS0, TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:39.

(1st and 0) Daniel Lincoln kick attempt good.

(Taken from the play-by-play at NCAA.com.)

Translation: We're running the ball. We're running it straight down the middle. We know it. You know it. You're not stopping it.

That drive was either exclusively up-the-middle running, or it was very close. It lasted nearly 6 minutes, burned up 3 MSU timeouts, while merely covering 51 yards (it could have kept going for more if the end zone hadn't gotten in the way).