SB Nation - Kentrell Lockett

Ole Miss Preview

Richard Pittman — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:40:09 -0000

about 1 month ago: Mississippi receiver Dexter McCluster (22) breaks free for a 79-yard touchdown against Auburn during an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/ Butch Dill)

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Last year, I was not a big fan of Dexter McCluster. I thought he was only so-so; that he fumbled in key situations; that he was predictable. I thought that Ole Miss's offense ran better when they let Jevan Snead do his thing. Not this year. If you were making up a list of offensive players of the year in the SEC, this list would not have to be very long to get to McCluster. Let's see. Ingram, McCluster, Green, Tate. Am I missing anyone? See, you don't have to go very far at all, and Jevan Snead is not on that list.

McCluster's last 3 games in which he played any appreciable time (he mostly sat out two weeks ago against Northern Arizona), he has rushed for 123, 186, 282. He has received for 137, 17, and 42. He's scored 6 touchdowns in that time.

Meanwhile, Jevan Snead, who was one of the Big 3 quarterbacks in the conference before the season started, is not in the top 10 in the conference in passer rating.

To be honest, we don't really match up very well against this Ole Miss team. We struggled last week to catch and tackle small, shifty running backs, and McCluster is the smallest, shiftiest around. Jevan Snead can be taken off his game with a strong pass rush, but we don't really bring a strong pass rush very often. I wish I could say more, but that's about it.

Jevan Snead's favorite target is Shay Hodge, who I think is a terrific player. He's had three 100-yard receiving games this year. He's not a speedster, but he gets open and catches everything. I don't know if he's the kind of receiver who will get the dreaded Peterson Shadow, but maybe he should.

Defensively, Ole Miss is a surprisingly good team, 4th in scoring defense, 5th in total defense, 3rd in passing efficiency defense, 3rd in sacks, 3rd in 1st downs against, 1st in 3rd down defense. They do it with a defensive line that gets after it, though they are now missing Greg Hardy who is their best defensive player, though he's been limited for weeks before he was finally finished for the year. They've mostly done it without Greg Hardy all year. Jerrell Powe and Kentrell Lockett headline this group, and they can both play.

The key is that our defense will have to step up and defend against McCluster. If we can keep Dexter McCluster from running all over the place, we will have a very good chance of winning. If we can get a pass rush on Snead, we can take him out of his rhythm. Expect to see a lot of blitzing on passing downs, but blitzing is dangerous with McCluster back there. They could very well give him the ball on 3rd and 8, and if there is a blitz, he could be gone upon getting through the first level.

On offense, we will have to stay out of 3rd and long situations. Ole Miss is a very good 3rd down team, and their defensive line can bring a lot of pressure. I would mix a lot of run and pass on 1st and 2nd downs, trying to be unpredictable but at the same time having a logic to the plan that is often lacking in our offense. Our offensive line has been a lot better of late, and we will need that to continue, so we can avoid negative plays.

I will really be looking to see if we can ramp up the intensity level, or if the La Tech game was a sign of things to come. Really, I expect us to come out a lot stronger this game than we did last week.

This is an abbreviated preview today, because time is an issue for me this morning. I'll be back with more later.

Q&A with Red Cup Rebellion

Joel — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 13:00:44 -0000

Apart from yesterday's nastiness (not their fault -- we don't think), we've had a very good week with our friends at SB Nation Ole Miss blog Red Cup Rebellion. On Monday, we had The Ghost of Jay Cutler on our podcast:

. . . and on Wednesday, they had Will on their podcast:

. . . and today, we are exchanging Q&As with them. Their answers to our questions are below, and ours to theirs are over at their place.

And so . . .

RTT: From our perspective way over here, the two main knocks against Houston Nutt as a head coach are (a) that his teams seem to succeed when they're not expected to do well but fail when they are and (b) that Nutt is a certifiable quarterback-killer. Vol fans know from experience that memes that go national rarely tell the whole story. So what's the rest of the story on those two criticisms of Nutt? Are they valid or not?

Red Cup Rebellion: Well, we’ve learned the hard way this season that even memes that go national are occasionally right. Team Speed Kills did a story before the season began about how Houston Nutt does in fact live up to expectations. They used fancy schmancy mathematics and tables. Suffice it to say that until this season, the only expectations Houston Nutt didn’t live up to were those that were only held by the fans (delusional Arkansans at that). However, this season is different.

This season, everyone and their mama thought the Rebels would play well. I mean, we returned a "dark horse Heisman candidate" at quarterback (that’s so funny to type now). Also, our stable of halfbacks was supposed to be great. Turns out that both of those things may or may not be true. We have no idea because our offensive line is so bad. They don’t give Jevan time, and they don’t open holes for Brandon Bolden.

So in answer to part A, I would say that, while this season fits the mold quite well, it is the first season Nutt has ever had that did so. To say that he doesn’t live up to expectations because one season out of eleven in the SEC didn’t is nonsense.

In answer to part B, see the second paragraph of this answer. Jevan certainly isn’t helping himself out much, but I’m not sure it’s Houston Nutt’s fault that Ed Orgeron signed only 4 players who would ever start on the offensive line. Jevan doesn’t have any protection, and he’s not the type of quarterback who can succeed in that situation. He makes poor decisions when pressured, and we’re seeing that week-in and week-out this season.

In further answer to B, which quarterbacks has Houston killed exactly? Clint Stoerner flourished under him. Matt Jones wasn’t a real quarterback. Casey Dick shouldn’t have been starting in the SEC. I don’t know a ton about Arkansas football, but I’ve missed the examples of quarterbacks who actually regressed under Nutt.

So in reality, Houston Nutt is actually just bad at recruiting good QBs. Quarterbacks used to illustrate this by Arkansas fans are Tarvaris Jackson and Kodi Burns. Yeah. Those guys are tearing it up these days. I mean, my goodness, Tarvaris Jackson threw for nearly 2,700 yards as a senior at Arkansas State… in the Sun Belt…

RTT: Y'all haven't had a week off since after your very first game. Are there any injuries or depth or fatigue issues we should know about?

Red Cup Rebellion: It’s a good thing I waited until today to answer this. My answer was going to be just a flat out no, which would have been no fun.

Then yesterday happened, and our best pass rusher is done for the year after having wrist surgery. Yeah. Greg Hardy. You may have heard of him.

The loss of Hardy is absolutely devastating to our team. He has been in and out of injury trouble during his career at Ole Miss, but he was playing this season relatively injury free and giving 100% on every play, something that had been a knock against him in years past. Hardy is our most technically sound defensive end, and he weighs 270 pounds. Oh, he’s also really fast.

Losing Hardy doesn’t mean all hope is lost in pressuring the quarterback. Junior DE Kentrell Lockett was actually starting over Greg and leads the team in sacks and tackles for loss, but Hardy is incredible at getting after the passer, and he will be missed.

Other than that, we’re doing fine. It seems like our coaches are pretty good at recognizing when our players need some rest. We don’t generally have fatigue issues (other than our offensive linemen who seem to have spent the entire summer sitting in a la-z-boy recliner eating Doritos.)

RTT: Just looking at the numbers, we made the following conclusions earlier this week:

a) Against common opponents, Tennessee has fared better than Ole Miss. We beat Memphis worse and played Alabama and Auburn better. The Rebels' best victory this season came against Arkansas. We got ours against South Carolina, a team to which Ole Miss lost.

b) Much like Tennessee (discounting the recent trend), Ole Miss is middle-of-the-pack on offense but very good on defense. They're especially good at pressuring the QB and stopping plays before they can get across the line of scrimmage.

c) The keys to the game for Tennessee will be winning the line of scrimmage on offense and balancing the defense to stop McCluster's big-play ability and Snead's potential as a good passer.

Agree? Disagree? And what of Jesse Grandy's two kickoff returns for touchdowns? Has he used up his quota for the season or is he always a threat to break one?

Red Cup Rebellion: a) Yeah. Your victories are certainly better than ours. Our best win came against an Arkansas team whose receivers had butter on their hands, and we still didn’t approach the 20 point win that was possible. Did I mention that Arkansas has a losing SEC record? Your signature win is against a South Carolina team that absolutely destroyed us. Disconcerting to say the least.

b) Yeah. That’s the name of our game. Pressure the quarterback and try to put the defense into third and long situations. On offense, the team goes about scoring touchdowns in a risky manner, while the fans just ask them to not lose the game for the defense.

c) If Tennessee’s offensive line can consistently beat out our defensive big guys, Tennessee will roll with this one. Our linebackers and secondary aren’t awful, but they’re not of the same caliber as our front four. One linebacker to keep an eye out for though is Allen Walker. Most of our fans haven’t noticed, but he has made some awesome plays this season. If anyone in our back seven is a threat to get into the backfield in a non pass-rushing situation, it’s Walker.

d) Well, there’s really no question D, but that question about Grandy is just kind of stuck in there. Here’s my answer to that: in three games as a kick returner, the freshman has two kickoffs returned for touchdowns. He’s a danger because of his flat-speed. We have trouble getting him the ball in a lot of situations on offense since he’s not a polished receiver, but on kickoffs, we don’t have to worry about that. I’m not sure that Ole Miss has ever had a player who returned three kickoffs for touchdowns in the same season, but I woudn’t put it past Grandy. He’s dynamite. Now if only he could gain about six inches of height and twenty pounds while still maintaining his speed…

RTT: Is there a common thread in the Rebels' three losses? You know, besides the Ls.

Red Cup Rebellion: Yes. The offensive line has struggled in pass protection against all the teams against which we have lost…. or won. Honestly, it’s just about whether Jevan is able to compensate for the offensive line and whether our defense is able to hold the opposing offense relatively in check. We have been a bend but don’t break defense all year, but we’ve broken a few times in the losses, and our offense simply isn’t good enough to make up for that. Also, as good as the defense is, they never ever force turnovers. It’s really frustrating.

The only reason the Alabama game wasn’t even more of a blowout is that our defense only allowed one touchdown while forcing Bama to kick five field goals. If only a few of those Bama drives had ended in seven points instead of three, people would have had their heads hung a great deal more.

RTT: Stealing yours: What's your prediction for Saturday's game? Give a predicted score and talk about the way it will shake out.

Red Cup Rebellion: Well, there are really three options here.

Option one, Tennessee blows Ole Miss out. A 20 point win is possible considering the matchup difficulties. If we have trouble stopping the draws and misdirections against Hardesty and Brown, we’re in for a long day. I have total confidence that Monte Kiffin will give us fits, so our defense has to carry the game for us. If they are unable to do so, we’re going to get hurt, badly. This can’t happen. If it does, our season is over.

Option two, Ole Miss wins a close one against Tennessee. Hell, we’re favored by five points right now. Apparently there’s something that bettors see that gives them reason to bet on Ole Miss winning this one. I could see it happening. The recipe for success against Tennessee is going to be capitalizing off of any mistakes the offense makes and keeping the ball in the hands of our halfbacks. Sure, Jevan will need to make some plays, but if we can continue to ride on the back of Dexter McCluster, we might be able to win this one.

Option three, Tennessee wins a close one against Ole Miss. Unfortunately for the Rebels, I’m afraid this is the answer. Our defense will probably play pretty well for the first three quarters and then get fed up with our offense, opening the floodgates and allowing a very close game to end up with a 7-10 point win. When this happens, our fans will be saddened, but they may not completely lose hope for the season.

So that’s it. Tennessee 24 – Ole Miss 14.

We can live with that. Thanks, guys. Be sure to keep your eye on Red Cup Rebellion all throughout the day for more on their perspective on tomorrow's game.

Tennessee Volunteers at Ole Miss Rebels: game preview

Joel — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:27:49 -0000

A weekly look at our upcoming opponent's recent history, with animated drive charts and links to SB Nation game pages.

This is a long post full of moving pictures and stats, so I'm putting the conclusions and predictions both at the beginning and at the end.

Conclusions

Against common opponents, Tennessee has fared better than Ole Miss. We beat Memphis worse and played Alabama and Auburn better. The Rebels' best victory this season came against Arkansas. We got ours against South Carolina, a team to which Ole Miss lost.
Much like Tennessee (discounting the recent trend), Ole Miss is middle-of-the-pack on offense but very good on defense. They're especially good at pressuring the QB and stopping plays before they can get across the line of scrimmage.
The keys to the game for Tennessee will be winning the line of scrimmage on offense and balancing the defense to stop McCluster's big-play ability and Snead's potential as a good passer.

Predictions

Tennessee 13, Ole Miss 12

Schedule and Animated Drive Charts


@ Memphis Tigers	9/6/09	win 45 - 14
SE Louisiana Lions	9/19/09	win 52 - 6
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	9/24/09	loss 10 - 16
@ Vanderbilt Commodores	10/3/09	win 23 - 7
Alabama Crimson Tide	10/10/09	loss 3 - 22
UAB Blazers	10/17/09	win 48 - 13
Arkansas Razorbacks	10/24/09	win 30 - 17
@ Auburn Tigers	10/31/09	loss 20 - 33
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	11/7/09	win 38 - 14

Rather than post all of the Rebels' drive charts, I decided to compare those of Ole Miss and Tennessee against common opponents. Up first is Memphis. Both games were blowouts, but ours was front-loaded (which is better, right?) and more blowout-y:

FULL SCREEN VERSION

They lost to South Carolina, and we dominated, although we were pretty fortunate with the turnovers:

FULL SCREEN VERSION

Both teams played fairly well in losses to Alabama and mostly kept the Tide out of the end zone (although the Rebels' let 'em have one). Ole Miss, though, threw four interceptions to our one, and the Tide pulled away from the Rebs at the end but the Vols pulled closer:

FULL SCREEN VERSION

Both teams lost to Auburn, but we both held the Tigers to fewer points and scored more:

FULL SCREEN VERSION

National Unit Rankings

Now on to the national rankings.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS
Category	National Rank	Actual	National Leader	Actual	Conf Rank	Southeastern Conference Leader	Actual
Rushing Offense	40	172.44	Nevada	319.13	6	Florida	240.67
Passing Offense	57	223.56	Houston	433.67	4	Arkansas	299.44
Total Offense	51	396.00	Houston	577.89	6	Auburn	450.30
Scoring Offense	38	29.89	Houston	42.11	6	Arkansas	35.56
Passing Efficiency	72	126.00	Cincinnati	171.84	9	Florida	159.46
Sacks Allowed	T-34	1.33	La.-Lafayette	.44	5	Alabama	1.00

Offensive observations. Smack dab in the middle of the pack in the SEC and slightly above average nationally in every offensive category except passing efficiency, where they're in the bottom quarter.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS
Category	National Rank	Actual	National Leader	Actual	Conf Rank	Southeastern Conference Leader	Actual
Rushing Defense	58	136.44	Texas	55.33	7	Alabama	68.22
Pass Efficiency Defense	14	100.02	Florida	85.86	3	Florida	85.86
Total Defense	25	317.22	Texas	230.78	6	Florida	232.44
Scoring Defense	12	15.78	Florida	10.11	4	Florida	10.11
Pass Defense	23	180.78	Air Force	127.20	7	Florida	134.44
Sacks	16	2.78	Pittsburgh	4.33	2	Alabama	2.89
Tackles For Loss	26	7.00	Cincinnati	8.89	2	Alabama	7.33

Defensive observations. Sort of all over the board here. Extremely good at disrupting the opponent's backfield and pass effficiency defense, good at keeping points off the board, and average (in the SEC, anyway) in rush, pass, and total defense. Their primary vulnerability appears to be against the run.

SPECIAL TEAMS AND TURNOVERS RANKINGS
Category	National Rank	Actual	National Leader	Actual	Conf Rank	Southeastern Conference Leader	Actual
Net Punting	62	35.74	Georgia	43.95	5	Georgia	43.95
Punt Returns	58	9.37	Arizona	19.00	6	LSU	17.32
Kickoff Returns	16	24.97	Stanford	32.06	3	Florida	26.48
Turnover Margin	102	-.78	Rutgers	2.25	11	Arkansas	1.00

Special teams and turnovers observations. Bell curve here. Really good at kickoff returns (uh-oh), okay at punting and returning punts, and really bad in turnover margin.

Stastical Comparison

Here's how the two teams stack up against each other in each of the key statistical categories in Hooper's wizbang BlogPoll Computerer:

Rank	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	OPPG	TO	3DD
27		51	32	16	39	70	16	35	26	47	16
33		31	59	14	58	66	25	72	12	51	2

Against a much more difficult schedule, the Vols are roughly evenly matched against Ole Miss. Where they're ranked higher than Tennessee, though, it's fairly close, but where Tennessee is ranked higher, the difference is generally more pronounced.

Players to watch for

Category	Player	National Rank	Actual
Rushing	Brandon Bolden	95	58.11
	Dexter McCluster		52.56
Passing Efficiency (Min. 15 Att./Game)	Jevan Snead	73	123.84
Total Offense	Jevan Snead	58	216.56
	Brandon Bolden		58.11
	Dexter McCluster		52.56
Receptions Per Game	Shay Hodge	T-55	5.00
	Dexter McCluster		3.00
Receiving Yards Per Game	Shay Hodge	31	81.44
	Dexter McCluster		39.11
Interceptions
Punting (Min. 3.6 Punts/Game)	Tyler Campbell	18	43.80
Punt Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)	Marshay Green	36	8.82
Kickoff Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)	Jesse Grandy	11	30.06
Field Goals	Joshua Shene	T-65	1.00
Scoring	Joshua Shene		6.33
	Shay Hodge		4.00
All-Purpose Runners	Brandon Bolden		97.00
	Dexter McCluster		94.78
	Shay Hodge		81.44
	Jesse Grandy		74.25
Sacks	Greg Hardy	T-51	.62
	Kentrell Lockett		.44
	Patrick Trahan		.44
Tackles	Kendrick Lewis		6.33
	Johnny Brown		6.22
Tackles For Loss	Jerrell Powe	T-77	1.00
	Greg Hardy		.81
	Kentrell Lockett		.67
	Patrick Trahan		.67

Observations

Running backs. Dexter McCluster is not ranked nationally in any statistical category, but he's everywhere doing everything. Apart from McCluster, it appears that they have a bunch of good runners, but no spectacular ones. Brandon Bolden is the most productive of the bunch.

Quarterbacks. For as much preseason hype as he got, Jevan Snead's numbers this season haven't been anything special. He's solid, and he can go off at any time, but he can also completely tank at any given time.

Receivers/Tight Ends. Shay Hodge is the team's go-to receiver with 5 catches and 81.44 yards per game. Oh, look. Next is McCluster.

Defense. Look at all of those guys making noise in the backfield. Led by Greg Hardy and Jerrell Powe, they're quite good at pressuring the quarterback and stopping running plays before they get to the line of scrimmage. Hardy's getting .62 sacks and .81 TFLs per game. Powe's getting a sack per game. Kentrell Lockett and Patrick Trahan round out the aggressive group.

Special teams. Jesse Grandy is a dangerous kickoff returner, averaging over 30 yards per return. He's returned two for touchdowns this season, one against UAB and one against Auburn.

Head to Head Comparisons

			Best Comparable	Result Against Best Comparable	Prediction
UT rush v. Ole Miss rush defense	168.22 (#46)	136.44 (#58)	South Carolina (145.60)	199	190
UT pass v. Ole Miss pass defense	232.22 (#45)	180.78 (#23)	Alabama (174)	265	240
Ole Miss rush v. UT rush defense	119 (#39)	172.44 (#40)	WKU (175)	34	100
Ole Miss pass v. UT pass defense	176.11 (#20)	223.56 (#57)	UCLA (222.44)	101	120
UT scoring offense v. Ole Miss scoring defense	32.11 (#23)	15.78 (#12)	Alabama (11.78)	10	13
Ole Miss scoring offense v. UT scoring defense	18.89 (#26)	29.89 (#38)	Alabama (30.89)	12	12

Again, not math, but informed guess. I doubt we'll have as much success against their running game as we did against WKU's, what with ladies man McCluster back there running all over the place and us working on our third starting middle linebacker of the season. I also took trends into account in bumping up the prediction for Tennessee's points. 13 may actually be conservative with how this team has shown it can move the ball in the last few games. But the most concerning thing about the above chart is that Alabama pops up as the best comparable in half the categories.

Prediction? More yards for Tennessee, but a close, relatively low-scoring game. Like the 'Bama game but without Terrence Cody?

Conclusions

Against common opponents, Tennessee has fared better than Ole Miss. We beat Memphis worse and played Alabama and Auburn better. The Rebels' best victory this season came against Arkansas. We got ours against South Carolina, a team to which Ole Miss lost.
Much like Tennessee (discounting the recent trend), Ole Miss is middle-of-the-pack on offense but very good on defense. They're especially good at pressuring the QB and stopping plays before they can get across the line of scrimmage.
The keys to the game for Tennessee will be winning the line of scrimmage on offense and balancing the defense to stop McCluster's big-play ability and Snead's potential as a good passer.

Predictions

Tennessee 13, Ole Miss 12

Ed Orgeron returns to Oxford, gives all of us the silent treatment

Joel — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 12:31:27 -0000

More photos » by Wade Payne - AP

Browse more photos »

Ed Orgeron will not be speaking with the media in advance of the matchup against his former employer this week. The Rebels, though, are talking, and if the Vols can find motivation in Tommy West's stupid joke about a talking dog, they might be able to do something with this:

[Some unidentified dude referred to only as "Hodge:"] The first one against Tennessee is kind of personal. Coach O never did anything to me, but the way I saw him treat some people, I know some guys are going to come out with a real fire in their belly and get after (UT) pretty bad."

Defensive end Kentrell Lockett added: "Great guy, but he just wasn't that head coach. He was a great D-line coach but he wasn't that head coach. I haven't talked to him (since Orgeron was fired). I might get a chance to talk to him after the game Saturday - might not, but life goes on, you know."

John Adams may have neglected to fully identify the source of that first quote, but he closed strong: "My guess is the Vols won't find talking Rebels any funnier than a talking dog."

All is well with Nu'Keese Richardson, who said that the weight of his homesickness and introverted personality was what was causing his issues last week. Credit Richardson's roommate Marsalis Teague for helping him through the situation, encouraging him to listen only to the advice of those closest to him -- his aunts and his high school coaches (!) -- who told him to tough it out. According to Kiffin, Richardson had one of his best weeks of practice, and against Memphis, he caught three passes for 54 yards and got his first touchdown. More importantly, he was laughing, joking, and at ease with his role.

And now it's running back Tauren Poole's turn, apparently. Poole was not demonstrably not happy with playing only on special teams against the Tigers, and Kiffin sent him to the locker room with time left on the clock (duplicate link). I'm guessing it was the confirmation that he was behind both Bryce Brown and David Oku in the pecking order. "I don't expect kids to agree with our decisions on playing time," Kiffin said. "I expect them to think that they're the best guy at their position. But they need to respect those decisions and not let their feeling show, and just keep practicing hard and playing hard when they get an opportunity." Kiffin met with Poole yesterday, and, not having had any problems with Poole in the past, Kiffin said he'll be available to play this weekend.

Not only is Jonathan Crompton ranked 1st in the SEC and 4th nationally in touchdowns thrown, he's done it on fewer attempts. Nationally, Crompton's behind only Houston's Case Keenum, Boise State's Kellen Moore, and N.C. State's Russell Wilson. But Crompton's done it on 264 attempts, and Keenum, Moore, and Wilson have 458, 268, and 293 respectively.

Huh. Despite both being charter members of the SEC, Tennessee has only played Ole Miss at Oxford three times.

Tigers Hold On Against the Rebels!

Acid Reign — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 03:33:37 -0000

(Head Coach Gene Chizik never shows emotion!)

War Eagle, everybody! It's the first happy football weekend for the Tigers, out of the last four! It's time now for the Acid Reign Report, on Auburn's miraculous 33-20 win over the University of Mississippi Rebels. Auburn faced a mismatch on paper in nearly every phase of this game coming in, but managed to emerge victorious by double digits! Both teams made plenty of mistakes, but Ole Miss made more. Auburn got a few fortuitous bounces, and took good advantage. Both teams had penalties, and for the first time in weeks, it was fairly even on both teams.

The Auburn defense was facing a tall order against the talented Rebel offense, and were gashed to the tune of 394 total yards. Dexter McCluster, who Auburn absolutely HAD to stop, finished with 207 total yards. McCluster paid for it in blood, though. Auburn defenders lowered the boom when they could, pounding the diminutive Rebel speedster. McCluster had to leave briefly in the second half, but came back valiantly late. Auburn made a serious effort with stunts and a few blitzes, and delivered enough hits to shake Rebel quarterback Jevan Snead off his game. Some of it was schemed but mostly, the Auburn defensive line and linebackers rose up, and beat on a young Ole Miss offensive line. Snead was limited to 16 completions on 35 attempts, with two picks by Walter McFadden, 175 yards, and one touchdown. That's a 2.1 net yards per pass average. Coverage by the secondary improved enormously, but the guys dropped nearly a half dozen possible interceptions. On the most difficult interception attempt, Walter McFadden made the play. On a ball that nearly hit the turf, and bounced off the straining hands of the Rebel receiver, McFadden snagged the carom one-handed, heels just over the boundary, and sprinted to a pick-six-touchdown! (How's that for a comma-splice?) Auburn gave up yards in chunks, including a 79 yard McCluster run. In the end, Auburn was able to turn the Rebels back every time in the 4^th quarter, holding Ole Miss scoreless to preserve the victory.

Special teams continued to run hot and cold. Clinton Durst hit great punt after great punt, till a shaky 33 yarder late. Chris Todd nailed the pooch punt of the year, coffin-cornering it out of bounds at the Rebel 1 yard line. Phillip Pierre-Louis didn't fumble a punt, but he let one go that was downed at the one, and danced like a man possessed on two others, netting only one yard with plenty of room. I fully expect that he will treat us to a Michael Jackson moonwalk, against Furman. Seriously, PPL, break it forward, please? Kick returns were decent, but kickoff net CONTINUES to be horrible. With the first return given up for a touchdown on the season, the kickoff team managed only a 33.8 yard net, even with Morgan Hull averaging kicking it to the 8 yard line. Wes Byrum continued his excellent ways, hitting on 4 extra points and a field goal. Byrum outkicked Ole Miss kicker Joshua Shene, who came into the game perfect on the year. Shene pushed a 44 yard field goal wide, and kicked an extra point into the line, which Auburn's Demond Washington scooped up and raced in for two points.

Auburn needed to stretch the field on offense. Everyone in the stadium held their breath on repeated tosses downfield, often into double coverage. Todd let it go downfield a bunch, and ended up with a great net yards per pass average, 9.6. Darvin Adams got open and made 4 clutch catches, and Terrell Zachary made a couple of GREAT ones! Tommy Trott had a terrible drop, and a magnificent TD on a ball slung up for the corner by Kodi Burns, off his back foot, being pressured. The Rebels were looking for Mario Fannin and Terrell Zachary on the reverse, but were hurt twice by freshman Travante Stallworth on that play. Ben Tate continued his outstanding play running the ball, powering for 148 rushing yards and a 53-yard back-breaking touchdown. The Tiger offense out-gained Ole Miss, 400 yards to 394. The Ole Miss defense's previous high given up for the season was 354, against Alabama.

Unit Grades, after the jump!

Defensive Line: B+. It was hardly a perfect game up front, especially given that the team gave up 394 yards. Still, there was some good pressure at times on Ole Miss, and eight tackles for loss. Auburn has been able to rotate six or seven up front all year, and it's going to help us going into Amen Corner.

Linebackers: B-. It was feast or famine in the linebacker corps. Sometimes we filled holes and blasted the runner, and sometimes we got pinned inside and burned. The swing pass to backs was KILLING the linebackers early, but adjustments were made well. A number of McCluster runs bounced off linebackers and gained a ton more yardage. Eltoro Freeman was again a force up front. He's very young , and when he gets out of position, it's ugly. It's the second week in a row that the young star has given up a 60+ yard TD run. Still, Freeman led the team in tackles, and was an inspiration. When he actually knows the defense well, he'll be really scary! The stat guys totally missed it, but Adam Herring got a few snaps, and made a huge tip on a pass when Ole Miss was in the red zone.

Secondary: B. This was a night and day improvement by this unit. Coverage was too soft early on, but as Snead started feeling pressure, the corners were able to crash the outs and hitches aggressively. When Zach Etheridge went out early, I was REALLY worried about the safeties. We lost a bit in tackling ability without Zach, but I think Mike Slade brought more speed to the equation. Ole Miss wasn't able to get it done downfield, even with that situation. T'Sharvan Bell and Demond Washington acquitted themselves well, and Neiko Thorpe made some plays. If this group continues to improve, they'll do well against Georgia and Bama.

Punting: B+. Durst hit some monster shots, but might have out-kicked his coverage some. The last kick, when we need to play for field position, was pretty poor. Durst averaged 42 yards on his six punts, but Marshay Green returned 3 of them, for 43 yards. The 29 yard Green return in the third quarter (the longest given up on the season) could have been costly, but Ole Miss fumbled it back on the Auburn 24. A net of 34.7 is a bit down, for us. I can't say enough about Chris Todd's pooch punt that went out of bounds at the one. That was a thing of beauty!

Punt Returns: D. No turnovers is an improvement. The dance moves, with room and blocking, were not. Phillip Pierre-Louis is a rookie at this gig, and I'm not suggesting we replace him. He just needs more coaching. When he learns to step fearlessly into the catch, and heads a few straight up field at a 45 degree angle or less, it will scare coverage teams to death. He's got some great (dreaded buzzword!) potential!

Kick Returns: B. This was a surprisingly solid effort. Ole Miss popped 'em up to about the 12 yard line, and Auburn returners Demond Washington and Phillip Pierre-Louis made 'em pay on field position, averaging 27 yards per return. That set us up on 3 returns outside the 35 yard line. That's pretty sweet, if we can keep that up!

Kickoffs: D-. Well, we tried kicking them deep this week, but Morgan Hull was not consistent. He managed two into the end zone, but 4 others were short. Auburn had a TREMENDOUS hit on the first return, causing a fumble that Auburn could not corral. Despite the negative on that play, Ole Miss averaged 30 yards per return, with one broken for a touchdown to pull Ole Miss within 11. Auburn did improve from a 26.0 yard net a week ago, to 33.8. I'll give a pass, this week.

Placekicking A+. Maybe I should count off on the 36-yard Byrum field goal that SHAVED juuuuusst inside the upright, but it counts 3 points, just the same. Byrum was perfect again. Foot Lauderdale has hit all 34 of his extra points, and is 13 of 14 on field goals. The only miss was from outside 40 yards. Magnificent, Sir Byrum, absolutely magnificent!

Offensive Line: B- This was a so-so performance, at best,but a winner nonetheless! Ole Miss has a great line, and depth. Auburn helped out on the scheme, giving the line help with several max-protect packages on the deep balls. Our tackles had maybe the worst day of the year trying to handle Greg Hardy and Kentrell Lockett off the edge. In this game, on 3^rd and +7, it was probably better to just run a draw. It would have saved Chris Todd some hits! Still, the Ole Miss ends had only 8 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks. We lost the guard/center gap a couple of times, letting Jerrell Powe roar inside for tackles in the backfield. On a D-line that had Jerrell Powe, Lawson Scott, Kentrell Lockett, and Greg Hardy, Ole Miss only produced 9 tackles. No holding penalties for the line, and only one false start on Mike Berry. And of course, one delay of game on an early snap, courtesy of indecision by Roger's Redding's Buffoons.

Receivers: B. After the catch drought the past three weeks, one HAS to love 7 catches for 117 yards and 2 touchdowns from the starters. Travante Stallworth ran two key reverses for first downs, and Kodi Burns was actually used as a receiver on a nice motion in, reverse out catch for 8 tough yards. There were some bruising blocks downfield, too. Some of the best plays downfield weren't catches, but rather swat-downs by Terrell Zachary on deep balls he wasn't going to be able to catch. Todd chunked it deep for Zachary multiple times, and Zachary did a good job of protecting his QB on those. Tommy Trott had a BAD drop on one pass, but made up for it with a NICE over the shoulder catch on a Burns loft in the end zone.

Running Backs: B. There was some hit and miss on blitz pickup, but enough success to allow Todd to set up to go deep multiple times. There was some good screen offense early, from Mario Fannin and Eric Smith. Ben Tate does some awesome running in traffic. His 148 yards on the day gave him 1067 yards in nine games. He's on pace to finish the regular season with 1422 yards, which would be the third best rushing season in Auburn history, behind only Bo Jackson and Rudi Johnson. Ben's rapidly approaching some rarefied air, around these parts!

Quarterback: C+. Super improvement from the past couple of weeks, but there was some shaky play as well. First off, the Wildcat was pretty much totally useless, except for Kodi's beautiful heave for a TD. Neither Burns throw was proper form AT ALL, but the one we needed got there for six. Rushing out of the Wildcat was snuffed, as nine or ten Ole Miss defenders attacked the line when they recognized Burns in the shotgun. Todd made some big throws, but it was scary. There were two deep throws where Terrell Zachary really made him look good, and a coverage bust that allowed Darvin Adams free for a TD. Todd made an absolutely awful decision late, giving up a 20 yard sack-fumble when we were trying to run the clock down. Luckily, two negative plays, a hold and a sack forced Ole Miss to punt for a touchback. Is Todd's arm OK? At times, he overthrows, at times he bounces it. Against a scary front and linebacking corps, Todd did OK, except for the fumble.

Auburn came up with a great win today! I didn't hold out much hope after the LSU effort, but these Tigers don't quit! We needed to go downfield on offense, play hard against Dexter McCluster, and rattle Jevan Snead. Auburn accomplished all three things, and came up with a win a little bigger than I predicted back in July. No, Ole Miss fans, we didn't score 34 like I thought we would, but we'll take 33!

The win over Ole Miss makes Auburn bowl-eligible at 6-3, and gives the team a great lift going into Homecoming against Furman. If Auburn can continue the improving play in Athens, an 8 win season is still within reach, and if we win that one, we'll host Alabama with a rising swell of confidence! Black Friday might be the end of the Tide's unbeaten run, if we continue to play well and the breaks fall like they did today!

War Eagle, everybody! WAR EAGLE! Ain't it grand? Nothing like winning!

Mark Ingram Learns from His Mistakes

kleph — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:24:49 -0000

There was an interesting story about Mark Ingram in the Opelika-Auburn News today written by Ken Rogers. It told how the star running back had been concerned about a mis-block that had led to a sack of Greg McElroy. OTS and I went back over the tape and noticed a few interesting things.

The story describes the play resulting in a sack by Ole Miss linebacker Jonathan Cornell and defensive end Kentrell Lockett. “You know, that’s the only play I’ve been thinking about,” Ingram told McElroy according to the newspaper. “That’s the only play that’s been bothering me. I’ve been thinking about that play since it happened.”

So we went back and checked the tape. Sure enough, with six minutes left in the third quarter, there is McElroy getting pounded for an 11-yard loss.

Ingram is clearly outmatched by Lockett who has 50 lbs on him and is a full seven inches taller. He gets overpowered and Lockett is able to disrupt McElroy's throw. But the sack itself is made by Cornell who nails McElroy after running completely unimpeded through the Alabama backfield.

The goat of the play isn't Ingram, it's Alabama tight end Preston Dial who seems to have some kind of brain fart right there in the middle of the field. He makes no attempt to block Cornell or to be ready for the dump off pass to save his quarterback. It's an abysmal effort and we are just lucky McElroy wasn't seriously hurt on the play.

Yet, while Ingram may not be responsible for that particular set of grass stains on McElroy's jersey, he had a lot to do with some that got put there in the first quarter. On 1st and 10 at the 11:16 mark, McElroy takes the snap for a passing play and has just a moment to scan the field before his facemask is full of Ole Miss defensive end Greg Hardy.

But this time it is Ingram's missed block that leads to the sack and loss of three yards. He immediately realizes whats happens and rushes back but it's too late. And it's this play that has stuck in his mind after the game.

"When you get the quarterback hit pretty hard or a play doesn’t work because you missed your blocking assignment, it kind of sticks with you more than those good plays," Ingram told the newspaper. "I kept rewinding it and rewinding it again. ... I want to get better and take advantage of the mistake that I made."

Aside for the confusion about the play Ingram refers to, the story is a superb peek into Ingram's progress as a player. He explains a bit about how Glen Coffee helped him improve his game last year and how he's been able to use that on the field this season. It's also got some wonderful insight into the strategy Alabama employs to make the running game work. RBR says, "Check it out."

Week Six Preview: #3 Alabama at #16 Ole Miss

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 13:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Bill Haber - AP

"Quit throwing so many picks!"

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The Alabama v. Ole Miss series isn't one filled with hatred quite like the Auburn or Tennessee series, nor is it generally a series that has a high degree of relevance on the national level. Nevertheless, over the course of the past four years, no series anywhere in the country has produced as many gut-wrenching, nail-biting contests as what we've seen when the Tide took on Johnny Reb.

The past four games in this series have been decided by a grand total of thirteen points, and that statistic alone does not even begin to adequately describe how close things have been. The 2005 game ended on a time-expiring kick, while the 2006 game ended in overtime. The 2007 game was decided on a controversial penalty with seven seconds remaining, and last year's game also went into the final minute. And most shockingly of all, somehow, someway, all of those contests have fallen in our favor. How we've had the good fortune from the Football Gods to pull all of those games out, I'll never know.

After Ole Miss rallied late last year, this game has been marked for months as one of the games of the year. Of course, though, Johnny Reb effectively wet the bed in its only real test thus far in the 2009 season, and that has knocked a lot of the luster off this game. Ole Miss was clearly overrated as a top five team, and had no real business being ranked that high. That said, however, the Rebels are still a quality team and a very dangerous opponent. This game is likely to be yet another close one that goes down to the wire, so let's take a closer look at the match-ups:

Alabama Offense v. Ole Miss Defense

Even with a slow start in the passing game and some questionable early play-calling against a good Kentucky defense, Alabama nevertheless managed to rack up 38 points and 352 total yards in Lexington. The Alabama offensive juggernaut has seemed to slow with each and every game the past three weekends -- largely because the quality of the defense faced has increased each week -- and things won't get any easier this week when we go to Oxford.

The strength of the Ole Miss defense is clearly at the point of attack. The defensive end rotation of Greg Hardy, Kentrell Lockett, and Marcus Tillman is easily the best we'll see all year long, and while Hardy has not been able to get completely healthy -- and thus he's really no longer an every down player -- he's still a dangerous weapon when he is in the game. The ends are also solid on running downs, and mixed with the size of the interior players, it forms a very difficult run defense up front when these guys show up to play. Interior tackles Ted Laurent and Lawson Scott are both over 300 pounds, and the monster 340 pound Jerrell Powe is quickly starting to show why he was a five-star prospect coming out of high school. You can make all the reading jokes you want, but literacy isn't really a core competency for playing nose tackle, and Powe can at times dominate interior offensive linemen like he's a man among boys.

At linebacker Ole Miss has had more than their fair share of struggles since Patrick Willis went to the NFL, but they've got a solid group there now. The unit is led by Patrick Trahan, the senior linebacker that Houston Nutt signed out of the JUCO ranks in his first class in Oxford. Trahan started his collegiate career as a safety -- he was a former track athlete in high school -- but he kept getting bigger and bigger so he was moved to linebacker. The end result now is a 6'3, 225+ pound 'backer with great athleticism, and he's tough on opposing offenses. He's big enough to play the run, but also versatile enough to play the pass and rush the passer. He's a legitimate three-phase linebacker. Jonathon Cornell and Allen Walker start alongside Trahan, and while they aren't quite the caliber of Trahan, both are upperclassmen who are more than adequate.

The real surprise of the Ole Miss defense to date, however, has been the defensive backfield. Ole Miss was almost universally expected to struggle in the secondary this year, but surprisingly enough they have allowed very little success through the air. That said, however, we really don't know anything about this group because they have yet to face a decent passing attack, so it could be all a paper tiger for all we know, and if nothing else the Alabama passing game will be easily the best this unit has faced all year. What we can safely say is that so far this year Cassius Vaughn and Marshay Green have been solid at cornerback, Johnny Brown and Kendrick Lewis have been more active than usual at safety, and the back-ups have generally been pretty adequate. But, again, we really have no clue as to whether or not this Ole Miss defensive backfield is a contender or a pretender.

Looking at how we match up against Ole Miss, you really have to worry about our running game. We ran the ball well against Kentucky on the meaningful attempts -- i.e. factoring out the garbage time, clock-killing carries late -- but Arkansas still shut us down, and frankly this is easily the best defensive line we've seen all year. Ole Miss shut down our running game last year better than any other team on the schedule -- we had 31 carries for only 107 yards, averaging a meager 3.1 yards per carry -- and it's going to be very difficult to run on these guys again this year. These guys can flat out whip you in the trenches, and we're going to have to show up ready to play at a very high level if we look to move the football on the ground in Oxford.

Hopefully we will be able to take advantage of Ole Miss in a couple of areas. Their defensive line features a solid, deep rotation, but the linebacker corps is very thin. The starting three are good players, and back-up Lamar Brumfield is a solid, versatile player who can play all three positions. After that, though, all you really have is true freshman D.T. Shackelford -- an Alabama native who the Tide passed over last, so extra motivation there -- and while he has been a bit of a freshman sensation, he is also slowed by a high ankle sprain, and he likely won't play a lot against the Tide. So, it's a thin unit already, and both Trahan and Walker also play extensively on special teams, so hopefully we can wear them down and take advantage of their lack of depth. Likewise, the Ole Miss secondary is also a very small unit -- all starters are 5'11 and under, and three starters are 190 and under -- so hopefully we can really take advantage of the size match-ups with the likes of Julio Jones, Mike McCoy, Earl Alexander, and Michael Bowman.

Now, along those lines, I do like how our passing attack matches up against the Ole Miss secondary, but of course success there is predicated upon us being able to protect Greg McElroy against a very good pass rush. If we can give McElroy time, we should be able to move the football through the air. On the other hand, though, if Ole Miss can legitimately rush the passer, this is not going to be pretty. Either way, this isn't going to be an easy assignment for the Tide's offensive line. Ole Miss is tough off the edge, and Nutt will likely be aggressive in blitz packages, so the offensive line has its work cut out for them.

All in all, this one is a tough match-up for the Tide. Hopefully we can have some success running the football and block Ole Miss off the edge, but that's a lot easier said than done. Ole Miss will be tough to run on, and if they can get to McElroy, we're likely to find ourselves in Oxford with an offense that cannot run or throw effectively. It's going to be one heck of a fight, and we're going to have to play very well to move the football against this defense.

Alabama Defense v. Ole Miss Offense

The good news for Alabama is that this match-up favors the Tide a bit more. The Ole Miss offense is no slouch, to be sure, but it is a unit that has struggled early. Jevan Snead hasn't played anywhere near well enough to justify the preseason hype, the loss of Mike Wallace has hurt more than its gotten credit for, and there has been nothing close to a comparable replacement for Michael Oher.

Really, the struggles of this offense have started up front with the offensive line. The run blocking has been good at times, but has also been terrible at times, too. Smashes at the point of attack that spring good gains have been mixed with whiffs that result in tackles for loss. Pass protection, though, has really been the Achilles Heel of this group. Left tackle Bradley Sowell was beaten to a pulp against South Carolina, and right tackle John Jerry hasn't looked very good either. The interior linemen haven't played much better, either. Houston Nutt and company have rotated in a lot of linemen looking for the right mix, but they haven't found anything yet, and making matters worse this bunch simply looks out of shape. When John Jerry was literally begging to come out of the South Carolina game, all that came to mind for me was Mike Dubose, 2000, and the infamous "Pankcake Posse."

With the struggles up front, the rest of the offense just hasn't been able to compensate. Jevan Snead has been decent at times, but he has generally struggled to complete a high percentage of his passes and he has turned the football over a lot -- only a completion percentage of 51% and five interceptions. With Mike Wallace gone, the Rebels really do not have the big vertical threat in the passing game, and while the likes of Shay Hodge, Markeith Summers, Lionel Breaux, and Patrick Patterson form a solid wide receiver corps, they haven't been able to make up for the loss of Wallace. Likewise, Dexter McCluster is a threat, but he has really been more of a cog than a game-changer thus far in conference play.

The true strength of the Ole Miss offense to date has really been in the backfield with the tailbacks. Brandon Bolden has played as well as any back in the SEC to date, and at 5'11 and 220 pounds he is an absolute load. Back-ups Cordera Eason and Enrique Davis were both highly-touted recruits coming out of high school, and with their raw talent they form one of the most potent backfields in the country. Combined with Dexter McCluster's ability out of the Wildcat, this is a very dangerous group if their offensive line can give them any help up front.

Defensively for the Tide, I'll be brief on the overview because most RBR readers are more than well aware of who we are as a defensive unit, but I will address that the biggest issue we face here is exactly what we will do to replace Dont'a Hightower. Based on the practice reports, it's clear that Cory Reamer will be back at strongside linebacker this week, and we're going to have to be bigger inside to take on an Ole Miss team that will clearly look to be physical at the point of attack and establish the run. Chris Jordan is going to get a lot of playing time this week, and look for both Nico Johnson and Tana Patrick on the field -- even though playing will cost Patrick him a redshirt year.

As a whole, we are going to have a good bit different look defensively this week. Again, Ole Miss is the physical, run-based attack that we've come to expect out of Houston Nutt, and we are simply going to have to play smashmouth football against these guys. Simply put, if our defensive line doesn't show up with more energy and intensity than they did last week in Lexington, it's going to be a long afternoon. This isn't a spread passing attack where we'll constantly be in the nickel; you're going to see a lot of base 3-4 this week with safeties coming into the box to stop the run. The Rebs are far from pass happy.

And with that in mind, Injuries may make an impact on Ole Miss' power running attack. Fullback Andy Hartmann, a senior, is one hell of a lead-blocking load at 5'11 and almost 250 pounds, and he may be the best lead blocker in the conference. However, Hartmann sprained a knee a couple of weeks ago and has missed time. He missed practice on Tuesday, and while he is going to play on Saturday, we don't know how effective he can be and we do not know how much he will be able to play. Likewise, tight end Gerald Harris missed the South Carolina game with a hamstring injury, and while he did return against Vanderbilt, he's probably not 100%. Their back-ups, Dan Hoffman and Ferbia Allen, are a good 20-30 pounds lighter than the first-teamers, so if Hartmann and Harris are at less than 100%, that is going to make it more difficult for Ole Miss to run the football.

Furthermore, we need to use our depth in the defensive front seven to our advantage. Even with injuries to Hightower and Damien Square, plus the suspension of Jerrell Harris, we are still very deep in the front seven, and if the South Carolina game is any accurate indicator, the Ole Miss offensive line isn't in very good physical shape. We need to rotate players all afternoon and wear these guys down. Few things can better insure a 'Bama victory than to have John Jerry once again begging to come out of the game in the second half.

All in all, we're just going to have to line up against Ole Miss and be able to stop the run. That has to be priority #1 going into this game, period. Jevan Snead is overrated, but he can still be a threat, and with Nutt at the helm you have to be adequately prepared for every trick in the book. Nevertheless, those concerns are secondary to stopping the run. Given Snead's turnover issues to date -- which is to say nothing of Ole Miss' struggles in pass protection and the struggles of the receiving corps -- Nutt and company will likely play a bit conservatively here and try to establish the running game. If Ole Miss does that, they can move the football effectively and that will allow them to selectively use Snead and the trickeration to their advantage. On the other hand, though, if we can stop the run, particularly on early downs, we get Ole Miss in a lot of obvious passing situations, which limits the use of the Wildcat and other trick formations, and which also gives our defensive line numerous opportunities to take advantage of their struggles in pass protection and tee off on a quarterback who will be forced to take a lot of seven-step drops while waiting for routes to develop downfield.

Putting It All Together

On the whole, this one looks to be much like the last four contests in this series... a very hard, physical game that goes right down to the wire. Yes Alabama has looked very good to date, and yes Ole Miss wet the bed in their only true test to date. And, yes, Ole Miss was overrated coming into the year, no arguments here. Nevertheless, this is still a pretty good Ole Miss team, and they are a dangerous opponent that is more than capable of pulling off the upset.

Furthermore, the West is still absolutely wide open right now -- three teams are still undefeated, and Ole Miss still controls their own destiny -- and that fact mixed with Nutt's love of playing the underdog role, not to mention the recent acrimony that is surely present in the Ole Miss roster thanks to how this game has turned out the past four years, you can bet your life that Ole Miss will show up to play football on Saturday like men possessed. For all of the talk of Ole Miss wetting the bed, if Johnny Reb can pull off the upset on Saturday, they will quickly vault back into the top 10 and they will once again establish themselves as the front-runners in the SEC West if Florida can beat LSU, as expected. And, of course, rest assured they are well aware of those facts. Make no mistake about it, there is a lot on the line here for Ole Miss, and they will play accordingly. Do not expect Colonel Reb to lay an egg Saturday afternoon.

I do think we are the better team here. We have a tad more top-end talent, and a good bit better quality depth throughout the roster. Nevertheless, again, this is a dangerous Ole Miss team that actually matches up with us pretty well thanks to the strength of their defensive front seven and their ability to rush the passer with a base four-man rush. If you think victory is a near certainty in this game, you really need to drink something other than the crimson Kool-Aid. This should be a close game, and if we play like we did last week in Lexington, we're probably in a lot of trouble. We are a better team here who is justifiably a slight favorite, but nevertheless we are going to have to play really well to go into Oxford and get this victory, and at the very least victory is unlikely to come without one hell of a fight.

Hope for the best.

Previewing Ole Miss at South Carolina: Q & A with Ghost of Chucky

Gamecock Man — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 16:42:29 -0000

Here's some more interviewage for ya, this time courtesy of Ghost of Chucky. My answers to his questions should be up later today.

1. There's a lot of talk about the Rebels being over-ranked at fourth in the country. Do you think they're overrated, or do you think they're capable of finishing the year in the top five? If you think they're overrated, what do you think more reasonable expectations might be?

As of today, yes. The Rebels are certainly "overrated." However, this is definitely a Top 15 team. It's a shame that Ole Miss' two opponents have been Memphis and SE Louisiana and, from what we've been told, the play calling was very vanilla for each of those two games.

Offensively, Jevan Snead has struggled to get his rhythm down. Furthermore, the passing game has relied heavily on out routes as opposed to looking down field in the first two games of the season. I would expect that to change starting Thursday.

There's no reason why the Rebels can't compete with Alabama for the West Division title. But if they want to, they're going to have to learn under fire in Columbia and Nashville over the next two weeks.

2. Ole Miss's defense has played well so far. Is that because it's better than advertised or because the competition has been soft? How will they handle an improved Carolina offense?

It's a combination of both. The defense, in my mind, is as good as advertised. It all starts with the defensive line. Believe it or not, Jerrell Powe is currently the anchor on that line. Guys like Kentrell Lockett and Marcus Tillman also big factors up front. Plus, it helps that Greg Hardy is going to be back in the line-up on Thursday after taking a week off due to injury.

The linebackers and defensive backs have been solid, so far, but they haven't been tested by a big-time quarterback, yet. Johnny Brown, Kendrick Lewis, and Fon Ingram lead the team in tackles through two games.

If the defensive front is able to put pressure on Stephen Garcia then the game, and pace, will play into Ole Miss' hands all night.

3. Name and describe one player that most Gamecocks fans haven't heard about yet that will have an impact on this game.

You may have heard of him, but WR Pat Patterson is going to be the next stud receiver in the SEC. The kid's a freshman and didn't get a chance to do a whole lot until last week where he racked up 4 catches for 59 yards and a touchdown. In the game against SE Louisiana it became clear that Snead's main targets in the passing game were Shay Hodge and Patterson. If Patterson can continue to contribute along with a guy like Dexter McCluster, it just makes the Rebel offense that much more dangerous.

4. Prediction. Who will win and what will the score be?

I'm going to go with Ole Miss in a close match-up. Given how inconsistent the offense has been for Ole Miss, I'm not very confident with my pick. It doesn't help that South Carolina has a defense that features a guy like Eric Norwood whom the young Ole Miss offensive line will have to target on every single play from scrimmage.

2009 SEC West Preview & Predictions

outsidethesidelines — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

In attempting to predict the SEC last year, I simply went through each member school's schedule and made definitive picks, game-by-game, and then compiled everything at the end to determine the overall standings and the division champions. For the 2009 season, however, I decided to scrap that format. As appealing as picking individual games can be simply because of its definitive nature, in many ways it is just a waste of time because there is just entirely too much random chance involved in each particular game, and on the whole it's far better to simply view the season in its entirety instead of trying to dissect its individual components from the outset.

To that end, this year I'm going to focus more on teams as a whole and make final predictions from there, thus omitting the individual game predictions. Moreover, unlike last year where I predicted the entire SEC, this year I'm going to focus only on the SEC West. My thought is that unless the terrorists successfully carry out jihad against Gainesville, the Gators are going to win the East by a mile, and frankly if you aren't a fan of one of the other five SEC Eastern Division members, who really cares what order they go in two through six? Thus, here goes my SEC West preview and predictions for 2009:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Coming into the season as the prohibitive favorites for the first time in ages, a quick look reveals why the prognosticators have been so high on the Tide. This is the most talented team we've seen in Tuscaloosa in ages, and the defensive side of the ball should probably be stronger than any defense the Tide has fielded since 1992. With the strength of the front seven -- a front seven that could legitimately feature three All-American candidates -- 'Bama should once again field an elite run defense. The loss of Rashad Johnson won't help things, but 'Bama led the SEC in conference play last year in pass efficiency defense, and by returning every other member of the two-deep rotation in the defensive backfield -- not to mention additions from Dre Kirkpatrick and Burton Scott -- a drop-off in performance is unlikely. Furthermore, things could even better, because for the first team since 2002, Alabama looks to have the pieces in place to at least be a solid pass rushing team, and even a solid, consistent pass rush would work wonders for the overall pass defense given the quality of defensive backs the Tide has.

The offense, too, has more than its fair share of strengths. Mike Johnson is one of the best guards in the country, and Colin Peek will be one of the conference's upper echelon tight ends if he can stay relatively healthy. Of course there is Julio Jones, already probably the greatest pure wide receiver in the history of Alabama football, but aside from him the rest of the receiving corps is deep with many talented playmakers in the fold. Likewise, the backfield is loaded with elite talent including the likes of Mark Ingram, Roy Upchurch, Trent Richardson, and others. And as an additional matter, quality depth on both sides of the ball is better than we have in years in Tuscaloosa.

With that glowing overview in mind, however, this is far from a flawless team. Greg McElroy has made tremendous amounts of progress in the past 18 months, and he has done effectively all that the coaching staff has asked him to do until this point. I think 'Bama fans can be as confident as can reasonably be expected with him under center, but until you step under center against a hostile defense in a real, live situation, frankly you can never really know what to expect. I think it's fair to say that the reasonable expectation for McElroy right now is that he will provide solid play at the quarterback position, but that is not to say anyone should be overly shocked if he suddenly turned into a liability.

The real concern, though, is the offensive line. The ideal situation for the Tide, of course, is to have the line mow over opponents like last year, dominating the game and turning McElroy into a game manager. Unfortunately, there's no such guarantee of that. The official depth chart will not be released until next week, but that notwithstanding, the starting five is this, going left to right: James Carpenter, Mike Johnson, William Vlachos, Barrett Jones, and Drew Davis. And I'll be frank, though quality depth is much improved, I think we should be a bit concerned with this group. Barrett Jones may play well at right guard (and I figure he is at least decent), but his presence is a major surprise, and we won't be able to give Drew Davis near the help from backs and tight ends that we did a year ago without having Andre Smith locking down the other side. Mike Johnson should do well again, but while James Carpenter and William Vlachos look to be solid players, a step down in performance from what we had a year ago at those positions is probably to be expected. As a whole, I don't think you have to worry about the line being bad -- far from it, I think the line should be pretty good -- but by the same token, I think we'll struggle somewhat in pass protection this year (as we did last year), and in the running game this line probably won't be able to consistently annihilate opponent's at the point of attack like it's predecessor did a year ago. That translates into putting more pressure on McElroy and forcing him to make more plays in the passing game, all of which could turn relatively easy wins into close games, and close wins into close losses.

Finally, special teams remains a legitimate concern for the Tide. Our coverage units should do really well simply because the great athletes we will be able to put on special teams, but the rest remains a concern. There is no doubting that Javier Arenas is an elite returner who will generate his fair share of big plays, but his decision making ability on punt returns is highly questionable at best, and many times last year he gave the opposition points on turnovers as a result of his poor decision making. Moreover, Leigh Tiffin will probably remain highly inconsistent at best (even when he is healthy), and frankly we do not want to see him trotting on the field with the game on the line. Likewise, he doesn't routinely get great distance and / or hang time on his kick-offs, another concern. Along those same lines, P.J. Fitzgerald at punter is a concern as well. He has slowly progressed and improved in his time at Alabama, but he's a small kid with an average-at-best leg, so he has most likely reached his peak. The smart money is clearly on yet another year in which Fitzgerald cannot produce great distance or hang time on his punts. As a result, despite some likely good coverage units and big plays from Javier Arenas, special teams isn't likely to be a strength for the Tide in 2009, and may in fact even be a liability.

Fortunately for Alabama the schedule does set up nicely. The opener against Virginia Tech will be a tough one -- and a loss there, at the very least, likely eliminates the Tide from BCS bowl contention (unless they can run the table from there) -- but a win there and it's relatively easily sledding until the road trip to Oxford the second week of October. Likewise, even after the Rebels, Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina, and UT-Chattanooga remain on the schedule, all four of which should be wins. An upset loss here and there wouldn't be a shock, but the defense and the coaching is good enough to guarantee at least nine wins barring either a complete meltdown by either McElroy, or a terrible run of injury luck.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Bobby Petrino's debut campaign in Fayetteville has about as many obstacles as expected, but things seemingly look much better for year two. It's clear that Petrino and company are still rebuilding the Razorbacks, but this is a much better squad than what we faced last year in Fayetteville, and all of those teams that got an easy win over the Hogs last year won't be so lucky in 2009.

The biggest single addition for Arkansas comes at the quarterback position. The Hogs spent most of last year with Casey and Nathan Dick at quarterback, and suffered the consquences thereof. Neither of the two were legitimate SEC caliber players, but all of that changes this year with the arrival of the gargantuan Ryan Mallett. A former five-star recruit from Texarkana, Mallett played as a freshman for Michigan before transferring to Fayetteville after the arrival of Rich Rodriguez. Mallett will start in 2009 for the Hogs, and in doing so he will not only be a major upgrade over both of the Dick sisters, but he'll have the strongest arm of any SEC quarterback. The reasonable expectation at this point is that Mallett will be one of the conference's top quarterbacks.

And, even aside from Mallett, there are a lot of other promising players at the skill positions for the Hogs. Tight end D.J. Williams is probably the best that the conference has to offer, and scatback Michael Smith -- who led the SEC in all purpose yardage last year -- is probably the best back you've never heard of. He's small, but he has great speed and agility, he's surprisingly effective as an inside returner, and he's much more durable than you would expect given his small frame. Likewise, with Dennis Johnson, De'Anthony Curtis, Broderick Green, and Ronnie Wingo rounding out the rest of the backfield, it's a highly talented group. Moreover, while the wide receiver corps doesn't really feature any truly great playmaker, it's a deep, solid group of guys who have shown that they can get the job done.

The real concern on the offensive side of the ball is the line. Three starters return from a year ago, and a fourth starter (Mitch Petrus) is actually a player who started in 2007. Unfortunately for the Hogs, though, All-American center Jonathon Luigs is gone, and in general the returning starters are the ones who were weak links a year ago. The tackles, in particular, Ray Dominguez and DeMarcus Love, have struggled with edge rushers, and if anything both of those guys probably should be playing inside at guard. All in all, it's just a bit of a concern for the Hogs. If these guys can consistently keep Mallett upright, the Hogs look to have a very potent offense, and one that could give even the best defenses legitimate trouble. On the other hand, a struggling offensive line will almost certainly slow what must be the unit that carries the Hogs to victory in 2009.

The defense, too, remains a major concern. The Hogs struggled defensively in 2007, and were even worse last year. In 2008 they were dead last in the conference in run defense, and the pass defense wasn't much better. Some steps may be made in the right direction in 2009 -- a couple of JUCO transfers in the defensive backfield should help, plus most of the defensive line returns -- but they still have a lot of issues, and it's unlikely that the Hogs will be able to move out of the cellar in most defensive categories in 2009.

All in all, the Hogs are a team that is clearly moving in the right direction, and they will be a dangerous team in 2009. Last year they knocked off LSU, Auburn, and almost beat Ole Miss. Rest assured they will get a couple of big-name upsets this year as well. Though sheer strength of schedule will dictate a few more roadblocks for the Hogs in 2009 -- five teams on their schedule are currently ranked in the AP top 15 -- this is a dangerous team, and one that could really surprise a lot of people if the defense can show some signs of life.

Auburn Tigers

Following their worst season in a decade, Auburn made a different kind of splash hire by bringing in former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik. Though near suicidal upon first hearing the news, most Auburn fans are now predictably bathing in the Kool-Aid, but looking at the Tigers in an objective light reveals that their fan base probably had it right to start with. On the whole, it's nearly impossible to believe their fall from grace in recent years. After going a combined 34-5 from 2004-2006, Auburn now finds itself with scholarship levels reminiscent of a program undergoing major NCAA sanctions, and possessing a depth chart paper thin in terms of both elite talent and quality depth. Things are so bad that almost any true freshman -- though they came from a highly unimpressive recruiting class -- healthy enough to play will be required do so in 2009, and a few walk-ons will be expected to contribute as well. From the outset, the mere fact that the athletic director is publicly trying to cool expectations for the program for the next couple of years ought to tell you all you need to know about their future prospects.

Chris Todd surprised many when he won the starting quarterback job all of a week into Fall camp, but despite a surgically repaired throwing shoulder, Todd's starting job probably has more to do with the shortcomings of the other candidates than it does his own skills. Neil Caudle is a bust now, as is Kodi Burns, and they are going to try to run some Wildcat-type stuff with Burns at the helm. But, of course, no one really knows what to expect of the newfangled Auburn offense. It's going to be a spread offense, but apparently one that is run-heavy, and it's also going to be a hurry-up offense to boot. And yes that's a major break from offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn's track record, and yes they are going to run some Wildcat as well. So, no, I don't have any clue as to what they are going to do, and frankly I doubt anyone else does either.

And, truth be told, it probably doesn't matter one way or the other regardless of what they do. Todd is likely to be a below average quarterback, and the offensive line looks to struggle. Lee Ziemba and Ryan Pugh look good (when healthy), but the rest of the line looks to be in major trouble. Byron Isom, Mike Berry, and Andrew McCain are nothing special, and the depth on this unit is ridiculously thin. A kid like Chris Capps would easily see playing time with this group. And making matters worse, there is zero proven depth at wide receiver. About the only good thing you can say about this offense is that the tailbacks look to be a solid group. On the whole, though, given the overall lack of depth, good quarterback play, and game-changers at the skill positions, this offense looks to struggle regardless of what type of offensive system they implement, which is exactly the reason I'm not going to waste any time here trying to predict exactly what they are going to do offensively. Again, wishbone, run and shoot, whatever, the end result is almost certainly the same.

On defense, too, Auburn has a lot of problems. Last year's group was strong one hindered only by an incompetent defense, but a lot has changed since then. Guys like Trey Blackmon and Jerraud Powers left early, and what is left is largely a shell of what once was. The entire group is thin as a whole, and outside of Josh Bynes and Antonio Coleman, it's hard to identify many defenders who are clearly above average at this point. Mike McNeil is a fine player at safety, but he broke a leg in Spring practice, and at this point it looks like he is going to miss a few weeks of the season at least. Eltoro Freeman is a JUCO transfer who could really help out and be an impact player, but he has missed time this Fall with both an arm injury and a leg injury. All in all, much like the offense, the defense features very few top-end players, and almost no quality depth whatsoever.

On the whole, Auburn has a fairly decent starting 22, but considering modern day college football is a game that needs 50-55 good, solid contributors in order to play at a high level, that doesn't do them much good. Again, quality depth is the name of the game in football, and Auburn possesses almost none of that precious commodity. The schedule isn't easy in 2009, either, and frankly only Furman and Ball State are guaranteed wins. Of course Auburn will get more wins than that, I'm sure, but the point remains that wins likely won't come frequently for the '09 Tigers, and the few that do will likely be the result of some very close, hard fought contests. Much like last year, Auburn expects to be fighting tooth and nail with Mississippi State for last place in the SEC West.

LSU Tigers

After a disappointing 2008 campaign, the Bayou Bengal faithful hopes for improvement in 2009, and in all fairness they probably should get it. Jordan Jefferson, at the least, shouldn't be quite as disastrous as Jarrett Lee was a year ago, and while John Chavis is not a spectacular hire at defensive coordinator -- and in fact one I don't like in the long run -- he's an upgrade over what they had a year ago. As a result,

At quarterback the job belongs all to Jordan Jefferson now, and we'll have to see what he has made of. The LSU Hype Machine naturally has him as a superstar in the works, but a more objective view reveals more question marks and uncertainty. He played decent football last year -- relative to what Jarrett Lee did anyway -- but nevertheless he struggled to complete passes, and he took a ton of sacks thanks to his poor decision-making abilities. Based on what Jefferson has shown us, he looks to be a solid player eventually, but he still has a lot to prove, and all of these purple and gold notions just assuming that it's only a matter of time before he becomes a star quarterback are really just wishful thinking more than anything else. For now, what we can reasonably say about Jefferson is that he has a nice physical skill set with good long-term upside, and that if the LSU coaching staff uses him wisely, he might not be a top-end player this year but he will at least provide solid play and not turn the LSU offense into a trainwreck like Jarrett Lee did a year ago.

The rest of the skill positions are generally in good shape in Baton Rouge. Brandon LaFell will be one of the conference's top receivers, and likewise Richard Dickson will be one of the conference's top tight ends. Charles Scott is one of the conference's better tailbacks, and there is a lot of depth in the backfield with Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy, and incoming freshman Mike Ford. Likewise, while I don't think Russell Shephard will ever be an above average quarterback in this league, he's clearly an elite athlete, and I'm sure the LSU coaching staff will find some ways to take advantage of that this year. The only real concern at the skill positions is a lack of experienced depth, but the Tigers have recruited extremely well, and tremendous amounts of raw talent and athleticism are everywhere, so they should likely be fine even though they are not particularly experienced. Besides, experience at the skill positions tends to be a bit overrated, and in any event the Tigers aren't likely to face a legitimate test until the fifth week of the season when they go on the road to face Georgia, so again lack of experience shouldn't be a major concern.

The real concern with LSU's offense in many ways, much like Alabama, is with the offensive line. Jefferson is still green and ideally the coaching staff would be able to use a highly successful running game to take pressure off of him, but again there is no guarantee that will happen. Ciron Black is clearly the best tackle in the conference now, and Joseph Barksdale is more than adequate at right tackle. However, the interior linemen aren't necessariliy strengths. Gone are left guard Herman Johnson and center Brett Helms -- both punishing blockers in the running game -- and while Lyle Hitt returns at right guard, I've always considered him to be the weak link of the line. Making matters worse, T-Bob Hebert was expected to start at center after the departure of Helms, but he has been banged up in Fall camp, and that too is in question now. Moreover, this is a young line that probably doesn't have as much depth as you would at first imagine. The bottom line is that center / guard play of the interior linemen is exponentially important to the success of the running game, and if LSU has trouble here -- regardless of their strengths at the tackle position -- the running game will suffer, and more pressure will be put on Jefferson to make plays on his own. Again, as was the case with Alabama and Greg McElroy, that could very well result in more mistakes from the quarterback position, which can easily turn relatively easy wins into nailbiters, and close wins into close losses.

Defensively, the Bayou Bengals look to rebound from its worst showing in years in 2008. Truth be told, though, the LSU defense a year ago was a tale of two stories... a really good run defense, mixed with a really bad pass defense. And the bad news for the Tigers is that the cornerstones of the run defense -- the defensive line and linebacker Derry Beckwith -- have all moved on to the next level, so there are legitimate question marks there. Most of the defensive backfield returns, but again it is returning a unit that couldn't stop the pass, despite the fact that they were constantly helped by a good pass rush. Nevertheless, LSU has boatloads of talent all over the defense, and the real question is just whether or not they can take full advantage of it. They couldn't do that a year ago and struggled, but it will take an equally bad showing by both coaches and players to get a repeat performance of that poor effort in 2009.

All in all, LSU is a difficult projection, easily the most difficult of the entire SEC, and perhaps even the country. You still have questions at quarterback, and the running game may not go as smoothly as many assume. Furthermore, while the talent is there on the defensive side of the ball, and while John Chavis is an upgrade over Peveto and Mallory, he himself on occasion did field some bad defenses in Knoxville despite having loads of elite talent up on ol' Rocky Top. Plus, each and every year since arriving in Baton Rouge, Les Miles and company have lost games to some not so impressive teams that they should have easily won, and that will likely continue in 2009. On the other hand, LSU is easily still one of the nationally elite programs in terms of raw talent and athleticism, and the schedule once again is doing them a huge favor. Their athletic department continued a commitment to cupcakes approach to non-conference scheduling in 2009 -- getting 0-12 Washington, mixed in with Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Tulane -- and that combined with the luck of drawing the likely three worst SEC teams (Auburn, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt) means that they could play very poorly and still easily sleepwalk to seven wins. As I said two weeks ago, if I had to give all the possible outcomes, I'd say LSU could go anywhere from 7-5 to 11-1, and I'd give them a 20% chance of each individual outcome. Exactly where will they end up along that spectrum? It'll probably come down to the same two things it did a year ago: coaching and quarterback play, but trying to predict exactly where cannot be anything more than a pure guess at this point. Only with ignorance could you be particularly certain of that prediction at this point.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

After showing some signs of life for almost the first time in a decade, the Bulldogs came crashing back down in 2008, and the struggles brought a new regime to Mississippi State. Out is Sylvester Croom, and for the first time in almost 20 years a non-Alabama alum is roaming the sidelines in Starkville, as Dan Mullen takes over for the Bullies. And in all fairness to MSU, it's not a bad hire. Mullen is a young, energetic coach who is on the rise, and one who already has a couple of national championship rings on his resume. His hire may very well have been better than either Lane Kiffin or Gene Chizik.

That notwithstanding, though, it looks to be a very harsh reality for the Bulldogs in 2009. Mullen may have been hired because of his offensive background, but it's hard to see him breathing any life into this offense in 2009. It's been hapless for years, and with the 5'10 and 195 pound Tyson Lee leading the offense this year, it's hard to see that changing. It will probably be a major shock if he can withstand a year's worth of pounding in the SEC, and even if he can he's not likely to be very effective anyway. True freshman Tyler Russell is the quarterback of the future in any event, and his reign will likely begin sometime this year in Starkville. That's good news in one sense because Russell is a much more talented player than Lee, and he's a bitter fit for Mullen's spread option system, but I'll let you do the math on the success true freshmen quarterbacks have in this league while surrounded by poor supporting casts.

And speaking of that poor supporting cast, I think that's probably the nicest way to put it. The wide receiver corps has some problems, to put it mildly. Brandon McRae is a fine wide receiver, but who knows how he will rebound from the gruesome, Prothro-esque broken leg he suffered last year against Ole Miss? And aside from McRae, there really are no proven commodities. JUCO transfer Leon Berry will be counted on heavily, and from there true freshmen like Chad Bumphis will get a great chance at playing time. Mullen's spread needs a lot of quality receivers, and the Bulldogs just don't have it right now. Likewise, the offensive line doesn't look very good either. To be sure, most of the starters return from a year ago, but MSU has struggled in the trenches for ages now, and the physical brand of football that the Dawgs often played with under Croom will do them no good under Mullen. How will the MSU linemen handle the transition to the spread option? It's anyone's guess, but nearly everyone will be surprised if they do it with any considerable degree of success.

Probably the best player State has, period, is tailback Anthony Dixon, but even with him you have to worry. He's a big, powerful running back who gets the job done between the tackles. Now, one of you readers, remind me... how successful has Urban Meyer been with big, powerful, between the tackle running backs? His only success with them has been signing them, and then watching them flame out as recruiting busts. His offense has no real need for such a player, and Mullen's might not at MSU either. I'm sure he'll try to work Dixon into the mix as much as possible just because he's one of the few talented players he has, but at the end of the day the point remains that Dixon is built to run out of the I-formation and in between the tackles, not as the centerpiece of the spread option. Look for Christian Ducre to get more of a role there simply because he's a better fit for the scheme.

And the defense is probably in just as bad of shape as the offense. Defense was the strong point of the Croom teams, but only three starters are returning in 2009. The defensive line is both small and without any great amount of depth, so much so that when JUCO transfer Pernell McPhee -- a good player in his own right, in all fairness -- stepped on campus, he probably became State's top lineman almost instantaneously. That's good news for State, but the bad news is that he'll likely have to be a truly dominant player just to give the rest of the line a fighting chance. Likewise, the defensive secondary is effectively a complete makeover. Marcus Washington returns at cornerback, and Damein Anderson looks to start opposite him, with Derek Pegues gone, the rest of the Bulldog secondary seemingly either lacks the size or speed (or both) needed to be high-end defensive backs in this conference. Last year's defensive backfield was a good unit for the Dawgs, but it'd be a major surprise if this revamped unit could pull off the trick again this year.

The only good news for the Dawgs on defense comes at linebacker. If Jamar Chaney successfully returns from his leg injury, he'll be a top end player, and perhaps the most underrated defensive player in the entire conference. Aside from Chaney, both K.J. Wright and Chris White are solid players in their own right, and if this unit can stay healthy, it has a chance to be a good one. Unfortunately, the rest of the defense looks to struggle so much in front of them and behind them that it probably won't give them much of a chance to shine.

As I've said before, I've always had a soft spot for the traditionally hapless Bullies, and I like Dan Mullen to boot, but objectively speaking it looks to be a long year ahead for them. They'll start off with a good fluff win over Jackson State, but from there the schedule is brutal. They will almost certainly be underdogs in every single conference game, Georgia Tech will go through them like a hot knife through butter, and even Houston and Middle Tennessee State probably aren't sure wins.

Ole Miss Rebels

The media darlings of the SEC this year, Ole Miss made a big jump last year, and many in the national media are betting that they will make yet another big jump in 2009. Yet, interestingly enough, they were picked to finish third in their own division at SEC Media Days. And that brings me to a point that I keep coming across... the further away you get from the Ole Miss program, the more heightened the expectations are for the 2009 season. The closer you get to it, the lower the expectations get. Personally, I think that is because the people who follow the program on a closer level than the national pundits are able to spot some flaws and weaknesses that the national pundits are apparently overlooking in their rush to deify the Rebels as the next big thing.

And make no mistake about it, despite the hype in some circles, this team does have a lot of holes and a lot of concerns. Jevan Snead is a fine quarterback, and the backfield is generally loaded, but the offensive line looks to be a major concern. The loss of Michael Oher cannot be overstated, simply because he was an elite talent and because the Rebels do not have anywhere even near his level of ability now that can replace him. Many hoped Bobby Massie would be able to do that, but after arriving in Oxford only about three weeks back, that is highly unlikely. And making matters worse, both starting guards are gone as well, and frankly the replacements don't look to be anything overly special. Of the remaining linemen, only John Jerry looks to be one of the best in his conference at his position, and the rest of the starting five have more of the look of a below average line than anything else. It's basically the exact same problem Alabama has, only that the Rebels don't have anywhere near the number of talented players to fill the holes.

A lesser concern on the offensive side of the ball can also be found at wide receiver. With Mike Wallace gone to the NFL, only Shay Hodges remains in Oxford. Hodges is a fine player in his own right, but from there things get dicy. Dexter McCluster will assume the role of a full-time starter now in Wallace's absence, and while McCluster certainly has the talent, he thrived last year in a jack of all trades role, and no one knows how he will do as more of a traditional, full-time wide receiver. And after McCluster, the proven commodities are pretty non-existent. Players like Lionel Breaux and Markeith Summers aren't necessarily bad players, but by the same token they aren't the ultra-elite athletes that you find at a place like LSU where you can almost just assume that you can plug and play them and they will perform at a high level. The Rebels are probably going to have to rely heavily on true freshman Pat Patterson.

And the defensive side of the ball has more concerns than the offense. Peria Jerry was the key to Ole Miss' stout run defense last year, and he is now with the Atlanta Falcons, and just like with Michael Oher, the Rebels do not seem to have a player of comparable quality to replace him. Ted Laurent and Lawson Scott will play a lot inside, but I really don't think they would play for any other SEC contender, and for all of his recruiting hype and academic saga, Jerrell Powe has done nothing of note to this point. Likewise, at linebacker, it's a thin unit with no true star players. It's not exactly what you what you dream of having when you prepare for a tough run through an SEC schedule.

Defensive end is a clear strength, and if Greg Hardy finally gets things together, he along with Marcus Tillman and Kentrell Lockett will probably form the best defensive end rotation in the SEC. Unfortunately, that strength is off-set by more concerns in the secondary. They really struggled against the pass last year -- despite having the conference's best pass rush -- and while three starters return, none of those returning players seem to be particularly good. More struggles against the pass seem likely for 2009. Moreover, Houston Nutt's two major recruiting additions to the defensive backfield have already flamed out. Jamar Horsnby, the five-star who washed out of Florida after being caught using a dead woman's credit card, has been kicked off the team after yet another run-in with the law. His next stop will likely be jail. And speaking of jail, the other big recruiting addition to the defensive backfield for Nutt in 2009, Tig Barksdale, also spent some time there recently after being arrested on charges of DUI and driving without a license. Now, Barksdale will not enroll this Fall as a result of "medical issues."

So what do you have when you put it all together with the Rebels? You've got a good quarterback, a good backfield, a couple of good receivers, and a great pass rush. But you've also got major concerns with the offensive line, a middling linebacker corps, a suspect interior to the defensive line, a secondary that will likely struggle again, and a team with very little depth at almost every single position. And your head coach has disappointed almost every single time high preseason expectations have been placed upon his teams. Does that sound like a championship team to you? I'll let you be the judge of that.

Of course, this is not to overly denigrate the Rebels. They went 9-4 a year ago, and they have enough strengths to knock off almost anyone they face on any given day. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them knock off either Alabama or LSU, or both for that matter. However, before we deify the Rebels, it should be kept in mind that they have enough weaknesses to where they could just as easily lose those big games, and also lose some that they are expected to win. When everyone looks back on the 2008 Rebels, they love to remember them as the team that beat Florida in the Swamp, the team that blew out LSU, and the team that spanked Texas Tech. Yet the fact that they lost at home to Vanderbilt, lost at home to South Carolina, lost to Wake Forest, and needed a squeaker to hold off 5-7 Arkansas gets completely overlooked. Bottom line, the Rebels have enough strengths to win a lot of games and get some big wins, but they also have enough weaknesses to where they are also likely to lose some games they should not, and once again, just like last year, be left outside the championship chase.

Final SEC West Predictions

(1) Alabama: 10-2 (6-2)*

(1) LSU: 10-2 (6-2)*

(3) Ole Miss: 9-3 (5-3)

(4) Arkansas: 7-5 (3-5)

(5) Auburn: 5-7 (2-6)

(6) Mississippi State: 3-9 (1-7)

* A two-way tie atop the SEC West between Alabama and LSU, with the winner of the November 7th Alabama v. LSU game in Tuscaloosa advancing to Atlanta to face the Florida Gators.

SEC West Pre-Season Breakdown

Richard Pittman — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 11:49:13 -0000

The first goal of the season for LSU this year is to win the SEC West. The task will not be at all easy. There are good teams in this division, and while Alabama and Ole Miss have gotten a lot of attention, I believe Arkansas and Auburn will probably be dangerous opponents as well. Arkansas moreso than Auburn, but don't mark a check in the W column for our game against Auburn yet.

Anyway, here is a brief breakdown of how I see our opponents in the SEC West, the obstacles they have in front of them and their strengths as we all are preparing to start another big season in the SEC.

Alabama: The defensive front seven should be outstanding, probably the best in the conference. They will make tons of plays and be in the backfield much of the night. The secondary struggled towards the end of last year, and the loss of Rashad Johnson at free safety is a significant blow. If there was one position on the defense that Alabama fans considered to perhaps be below par last year, it was cornerback, and some are expecting true freshman Dre Kirkpatrick to come in and be an immediate upgrade. I always find claims that a true freshman can come into a top program and immediately become a key player at a tough position somewhat dubious, but we shall see.

On offense, the big questions are how will Alabama replace John Parker Wilson at quarterback, and how will the offensive line perform? Junior Greg McElroy will be a more-than-adequate replacement for Wilson, who frankly wasn't that good. The real concern, though, is at offensive line. No team has to replace more of its offensive line skill than Alabama. Everyone knows about the loss of All-American left tackle Andre Smith, but the Crimson Tide lost two other starters on the offensive line as well, including All-Conference center Antoine Caldwell, who was the leader of the group. If you can't block effectively, you can't do much of anything on offense. If they get the blocking, the running backs should be about as good as last year, but they continue to struggle to find receiver depth behind Julio Jones.

Bama is probably the toughest competition in the West. I think they have questions like a bunch of other teams, but unless the offensive line is a disaster or injuries devastate their team, they will be a very tough opponent again this year.

Arkansas: I find this team pretty scary. It's not just that they beat us last year, though that certainly affects things. It's the fact that they have good players at a lot of positions. Running back Michael Smith may be pocket-sized, and needs to cut down his carries if he hopes to stay healthy, but he is perhaps the most dangerous back in the conference. Arkansas's receiver corps, led by TE/WR hybrid DJ Williams is as good as anyone's in the conference. Bobby Petrino is an outstanding offensive coach, and if Ryan Mallett is as good as advertised, this Arkansas team will put up some offensive fireworks.

The defense has a long way to go. There are some good players on this defense, but it was a unit that ranked dead last in run defense last year, and 10th in pass defense. To make matters worse, one of their expected starting corners is lost for the season to a torn ACL. The defense will need to play much better than it did last year, but they were very young in 2008. You can expect some natural improvement between the seasons.

The short story here is that I think of Arkansas this year pretty much exactly what I thought of Ole Miss last year: not talented enough to run with the big boys but with enough good players at key positions to be dangerous. Do you remember how that turned out for Ole Miss? The schedule is awfully difficult for this team though, as they travel to LSU, Bama, Ole Miss, and Florida, and also have to play Georgia. They play every team in the SEC that is expected to be good, and get 4 of them on the road. That's brutal.

Auburn: Last year was a train wreck, leading to a mid-season coordinator firing and then a post-season head coach-firing, and a second train wreck when a new coach was hired. The offense was awful in 2008, ranking 2nd to last in points per game. Auburn went and added a couple nice receivers on signing day, but for the most part the personnel is going to be the same on that side of the ball. Chris Todd will be the starting QB again. Much of last year's starting offensive line returns. They just hope that Gus Malzahn can get more out of these same players than Tony Franklin and his successor were able to get. That's actually a pretty tenable position.

Defensively, Auburn had a pretty solid group last year, but they have a fair bit to replace, especially in the middle of the field, as Auburn loses its two best defensive tackles and its middle linebacker. I think this year will be a struggle for Auburn, but if Chizik is at all up to the job (no guarantees there), I think they should be able to win a couple conference games and maybe sneak into a bowl game. An upset of a better-regarded team is not out of the question. But then again, a 4-win season is not out of the question either.

Mississippi State: Has disaster written all over it. The Bulldogs were the worst offensive team last year, scoring only 15 points per game, and were one of the worst defensive teams last year as well. It is hard to name one particularly dangerous offensive player. Senior running back Anthony Dixon is entering his 4th year as MSU's primary running back, but has a pretty pedestrian average of 3.98 ypc over the course of his career. He's also never really had a very good offensive line, but nothing should change there. He also enters the season with an off-season DUI under his belt and may be suspended for the first game or two.

Add in that the Bulldogs do not have an outstanding quarterback and are trying to transition from a power running game to a spread under new coach Dan Mullen, all without really having the wide receivers to run it yet, and you have the makings of a poor offensive season as they transition to the Mullen system that was so successful in Florida.

Defensively, the Bulldogs should be respectable as always. Last year's poor stats are deceptive, because so much of the blame rests with an offense that could not keep the defense off the field, but they lose a good number of starters from last year's unit. The strength of the team is in the linebackers, where Jamar Chaney and K.J. Wright are arguably the best players on the team regardless of position. The secondary should be a nightmare, however.

Ole Miss: They still have one of the best QBs in the conference, and a very good set of wide receivers, but I wonder if the overall talent level is all that high. I think Ole Miss snuck up on some teams last year and caught LSU in a down year, but they won't be able to use that formula for success this year. Jevan Snead, Dexter McCluster, and Shay Hodge form a great nucleus for a passing team, but the offensive line has to be completely rebuilt, and no running back on the team is particularly scary. I'm sure the Red Cup Rebellion guys will love hearing that.

Defensively, the front 4 is very good if healthy. Greg Hardy may be the best defensive lineman in the conference if he can ever get his foot completely healed, and he's actually pretty effective in a limited role even when he's not healthy. Kentrell Lockett and Marcus Tillman round out a very good 3-end rotation, and Ted Laurent is a solid veteran defensive tackle. They will be counting on Jerrell Powe to build on his solid freshman campaign. Behind the defensive line is a lot of question marks. Ole Miss had the worst passing defense in the conference on a "per game" basis, though the overall defense was solid, and they managed to stop the high-powered Texas Tech offense in their bowl game. Looking through their roster, it is hard to pick out a linebacker or defensive back who looks like a difference-maker.

Ole Miss has the easiest rout to Atlanta of any of the most-discussed contenders. They miss Georgia and Florida and they get Bama and LSU at home. They could potentially lose one of those two games and still win the West outright if they don't stumble against a lesser opponent.

Of course, we're going to have to see how all of this shakes out. Every team, even the good ones, have questions and areas of concern, including us. Also, injuries can derail anyone's season, including ours. Upsets are also possible, each and every week. I think we have as good of a shot at winning the west as anyone, except that our tough schedule looms large.