SB Nation - Michael Oher

RCR Theater (because I'm an American): Another Review of The Blind Side

The Ghost of Jay Cutler — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 08:02:12 -0000

More photos » by Rogelio V. Solis - AP

Michael Oher, like any good Rebel, hates the shit out of State.

This evening, after stomaching enough Turkey and pumpkin (honestly, a useless plant 10 months out of the year or so) as is possible in my 5'10", 175lb frame and watching the Dallas Cowboys listlessly give the Oakland Raiders their what's for, I joined Whiskey Wednesday for a night at the movies.

Yeah. We saw the Blind Side together. What? Why, that's not weird at all, sir. No, there weren't any girls with us. I mean, it's Thanksgiving and we are both from the same town so we decided to enjoy a film together.

Alright, seriously, I wish you'd stop looking at me like that.

Shit. You know what, get out. Go away....

Is he gone? Ok, good.

So, like my blogging compatriot One Man To Beat did earlier this week, I too will be sharing my thoughts and observations on the film adaptation of Michael Lewis' The Blind Side. I will try to avoid redundancies.

First, let me get the obligatory "OH WOW SANDRA BULLOCK MILFAROOSKI" out of the way. Ready? OH WOW SANDRA BULLOCK MILFAROOSKI! Alright, good. Moving on.

Next, for those lamenting the loose-ish adaptation of Michael Lewis' book: get over it. Honestly, when you heard "Sandra Bullock and Tim McGraw starring in a film adaptation of The Blind Side," what did you want? A documentary on the intricacies of pass blocking, the impact a man like Lawrence Taylor can have on an entire sport, and the evolution of football? An entirely Oher-centric, accurate to the word depiction of the former Rebel All-American's life? Anything aside from "lilywhite Sandra Bullock rescues a poor black child from the ghetto and transforms him into something phenomenal, all while transforming herself in a cutesy story which really makes us take a passing glance at the society we live in?"

Well, if so, you're ridiculous. Hollywood does shit like this all of the time. This isn't new to you.

Now, about the actual movie itself: I liked it. I doubt I'll see it again. And I'm certain I'll steer clear of the DVD. But I liked it. It was about football, and I like that. It was good PR for Ole Miss which, let's be frank, is something we could stand to gain some more of. And, in a moment of weakness, it made me feel good.

I really liked how, while every drop of the movie was filmed in Atlanta, they made sure to name drop Memphis, Shelby County, different neighborhoods, streets, et cetera to the point that anyone who, like yours truly, even has a casual knowledge of the Memphis area could appreciate the effort they took. They paid good enough attention to detail for me to give them a pass for lazily dumping "generic campus scene filmed at Georgia Tech" off on us as "Ole Miss."

Of course, the parts which everyone--I say everyone assuming that everyone is an SEC fan or, at the very least, a die-hard NCAA ball fans--loves are the 'crootin scenes. Seeing Nick Saban in an LSU tie, Tommy Tuberville in an Auburn shirt, Phillip Fulmer in a Tennessee cap, and Lou Holtz made me laugh. Not only were their performances surprisingly good, albeit goofy, but the reminder as to just how vicious and inbred the SEC coaching fraternity has become was humorous. The scene in which Leigh Anne Tuohy greets then-Razorback coach Houston Nutt at the door to her home, while drinking something out of an Ole Miss cup, was pretty fantastic as well. Not only did Coach Nutt talk all about the Razorbacks (dialogue which undoubtedly drove some folks in the Natural State up the fucking wall), but he looked down at Leigh Anne's cup, CRAZYFACED, and said "Ole Miss cup, huh?"

The scenes with Orgeron were, naturally, horrible. This is because he's an intelligible ogre whose facial expressions switch amongst exuberant, enraged, and enthralled more-or-less at will. There were bits where WW and I would just sorta shrug our shoulders when O said anything. I mean, Hollywood, you do take multiple shots and give your actors plenty of time to get it right, don't you? Well then how is Ed Orgeron still unintelligible under these circumstances? Why haven't scientists been working on this?

I also found it a bit odd as to how Orgeron's recruiting pitch was all about food. He gave B's Barbecue some love, though without actually using the words "B's Barbecue." He said something about how "you can get the best barbecue in the world from a gas station in Oxford" or some damn thing. He then garbled about catfish and football practice and made a goofy face. No wonder this guy recruited defensive linemen so well.

Hey, large impoverished 17-year-old male with an ungodly need for calories, how would you like to come to a town where all you do is eat greasy food and drink beer? Oh, and there are hot chicks who will do you?

See? Recruiting ain't so tough.

Yes, there are some very ridiculous elements to the movie. The scene where Oher disarms a bunch of pistol-wielding thugs in a Memphis project by pushing them through windows and railings was terrible. The bit before that, where they were all sitting around listening to hip hop while drinking 40's and rolling blunts, was ~~reminiscent of my undergraduate years~~ a tad bit offensive, just because I kinda feel it went over the top with the stereotypes. But, what do I know, I've never really been in project housing.

Which leads me to my next point: this film really does drag some of America's dirty laundry out for everyone to see. As an upper-middle-class white male who grew up in the suburban South with an intact family, nice house, and formative education in an all-white academy (I did graduate from a public school though, don't hate), I have seen the attitudes which permeate the thoughts of Leigh Anne's detractors throughout the movie. The scene where she's eating lunch with the prim and proper wealthy Southern housewives (I'd call them stereotypes if they weren't dead ringers for half of the moms who peppered the stands of my little league games) who worry that Oher, "a big black boy," is going to rape her daughter and suggest that Leigh Anne has some sort of purely altruistic motive for taking care of the young man is honestly something which would happen in such a circumstance. Not "could." Would. As well, the foolish defensive end opposite of Oher in his first game who made some comment about him being a "black fatass" and the referee who did nothing to stop this are straight out of a Pillow Academy vs. Hillcrest Christian game.

Additionally, as One Man pointed out, the scenes in the housing projects are perturbing, frustrating, and sad. While shot in Atlanta and set in Memphis, the inner-city scenes seen in the film could have easily been in Los Angeles, Miami, DC, Chicago, or New York. Yeah. We've come a long way in America. But we haven't come far enough. The movie only reiterates something which I've been saying for a while in that most folks outside of the inner-city are either ignorant of the situations therein, apathetic towards them, or simply at a loss of ideas as to how to alleviate them. It sucks, and this movie will remind you of that. /soapbox

Oh, and that short-haired, bitchy-ass NCAA investigator was obviously a Mississippi State fan. HATE WEEK aside, folks who have convinced themselves that the Tuohy family took in a classmate of their daughter's because they wanted to funnel him--a young man with no prior experience playing organized sports--onto the Ole Miss football team would be laughable, if they weren't so damned pathetic. Get over it, haters.

Finally, from everything I could tell, all of the people portrayed in this film were portrayed fairly close to their real-life counterparts. As anyone who knows any of these folks can tell you, Michael Oher is very much a reserved, focused person; "Miss Sue" is a driven educator; and Leigh Anne Tuohy is a stubborn, idealistic mother (others would use more colorful language to describe her, but I shant at this moment). Well done actors and actresses.

So, in short, see it. If you're an Ole Miss fan, you'll love it. If you're an SEC football fan, you'll like it. If you're a football fan in general, you'll enjoy it, but gag yourself on the heaping helpful of chicken soup they'll be funneling into your soul.

Hotty Toddy.

Auburn's Fast Start Among the Top Stories of the 2009 Season

Jay Coulter — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 06:00:22 -0000

More photos » by Wade Payne - AP

Auburn's Ben Tate has proven this season that he's among the best running backs in America.

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If we could somehow get winter to move as fast as college football season, life would be a heck of a lot more fun. It's amazing how fast football season runs its course. We spend all year talking about Auburn football - from recruiting in February to spring practice in April to two-a-days in August. The build up seems to last forever and now, in what seems like a flash, we're already halfway through the 2009 season.

There been plenty of surprises with Auburn and the rest of the SEC. Its fun to go back and read the preseason publications that came out over the summer. They are so off the mark, yet we continue to spend a small fortune on them year after year. Below is a collection of thoughts on the season so far...

There's perhaps no bigger story in the SEC than the success of Gene Chizik and his young Auburn team. If Auburn does what the Las Vegas odds makers say they will Saturday, the Tigers will head to Baton Rouge next week with a 6-1 record. Despite the loss last Saturday at Arkansas, so many preseason worries have been put to rest. We now know Chizik can coach and that offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn really is a special talent.

We've also learned that running the spread offense doesn't mean chunking the running game. Ben Tate doesn't look like the same back we've grown accustomed to over the past three years. He not only leads the conference statistically, there's little doubt he's among the best running backs in the country. Take that Tony Franklin.

The biggest storyline belongs to quarterback Chris Todd. His story is what makes all of us love college football. Has another person regardless of profession or sport come any farther than Todd has over the past 12 months? This was a guy that no one wanted to stand next to for fear of catching what he had - bad Karma and a bum shoulder.

Fast forward to now and he's a Maxwell Award nominee for the top player in college football. How can you not pull for this guy? I'd pay money for my son to shadow him and just watch how he conducts himself. He handles adversity better than anyone I've ever had the pleasure of watching.

Raise your hand if you are sick of hearing about Tim Tebow? I know he's a special talent and I'm sorry he endured the most talked about concussion in the history of college football. I understand he's achieved near Saint status for participating in circumcisions in third world countries. But if I have to watch him showboat on the sidelines by screaming at his team during a timeout again, I'm going to be the one throwing up.

His act is tiring quickly. And what's the deal with the networks showing Tebow and Florida coach Urban Meyer embracing before each game? Is it just me or is it starting to get a little creepy? Maybe David Letterman will let them use his office in New York during the Heisman Trophy presentation.

We'd all be hard pressed to say who's having the worse season, Georgia's Mark Richt or Mississippi's Houston Nutt. I wrote the following in a column last August:

"Georgia's Mark Richt will be on the hot seat at year's end. They'll lose for the 17^th time in 20 tries against Florida; and Georgia Tech will claim two straight against its in-state big brother."

I was crucified by my friends over at Dawg Sports.com. They told me in polite terms that I was an idiot. I'm not claiming to be Jimmy the Greek, but I'm just saying...

Richt's overall record is stellar. It's hard to argue that point. But Georgia fans, don't forget that Tommy Tuberville had a similar record and you see where it got him. Urban Meyer and Lane Kiffin are going to be huge problems for Richt to overcome in the near future.

Ole Miss and its failures are less of a surprise. Never has a bowl victory given a team a bigger bounce heading into the next season than the Rebels whipping of Texas Tech in January's Cotton Bowl. Quarterback Jevin Snead has gone from being one of the top Heisman contenders to 11^th in passing in the SEC. Here's what I had to say about Ole Miss back in August...

"Ole Miss loses three games. All fans have heard since January's Cotton Bowl is how loaded the Rebels will be in 2009. Sure they're playing with Steve Spurrier's favorite quarterback, Jevin Snead, but they are also without left tackle Michael Oher. And we all know how difficult it is to replace a tackle. Right Bama?"

I was probably a little too optimistic back then. I believe Nutt would take three losses on the season and be a happy man at this point. Outside of Kentucky and Furman, this has to be Auburn's next best chance at a win down the stretch.

As we begin the second half this weekend there are plenty of good stories still left to play out. Can Florida and Alabama both reach the SEC Championship game undefeated? Will LSU finally live up to expectations and make a run for the SEC West title?

Can Steve Spurrier continue to win at South Carolina or will he have his traditional second half meltdown? Most importantly, can Auburn reach deep down and find a way to continue its magical run, despite a defense that's getting weaker by the minute because of injuries?

We'll have all the answers in a few short weeks. After all, time flies when it's football season. See you Saturday at Jordan-Hare.

Week Six Preview: #3 Alabama at #16 Ole Miss

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 13:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Bill Haber - AP

"Quit throwing so many picks!"

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The Alabama v. Ole Miss series isn't one filled with hatred quite like the Auburn or Tennessee series, nor is it generally a series that has a high degree of relevance on the national level. Nevertheless, over the course of the past four years, no series anywhere in the country has produced as many gut-wrenching, nail-biting contests as what we've seen when the Tide took on Johnny Reb.

The past four games in this series have been decided by a grand total of thirteen points, and that statistic alone does not even begin to adequately describe how close things have been. The 2005 game ended on a time-expiring kick, while the 2006 game ended in overtime. The 2007 game was decided on a controversial penalty with seven seconds remaining, and last year's game also went into the final minute. And most shockingly of all, somehow, someway, all of those contests have fallen in our favor. How we've had the good fortune from the Football Gods to pull all of those games out, I'll never know.

After Ole Miss rallied late last year, this game has been marked for months as one of the games of the year. Of course, though, Johnny Reb effectively wet the bed in its only real test thus far in the 2009 season, and that has knocked a lot of the luster off this game. Ole Miss was clearly overrated as a top five team, and had no real business being ranked that high. That said, however, the Rebels are still a quality team and a very dangerous opponent. This game is likely to be yet another close one that goes down to the wire, so let's take a closer look at the match-ups:

Alabama Offense v. Ole Miss Defense

Even with a slow start in the passing game and some questionable early play-calling against a good Kentucky defense, Alabama nevertheless managed to rack up 38 points and 352 total yards in Lexington. The Alabama offensive juggernaut has seemed to slow with each and every game the past three weekends -- largely because the quality of the defense faced has increased each week -- and things won't get any easier this week when we go to Oxford.

The strength of the Ole Miss defense is clearly at the point of attack. The defensive end rotation of Greg Hardy, Kentrell Lockett, and Marcus Tillman is easily the best we'll see all year long, and while Hardy has not been able to get completely healthy -- and thus he's really no longer an every down player -- he's still a dangerous weapon when he is in the game. The ends are also solid on running downs, and mixed with the size of the interior players, it forms a very difficult run defense up front when these guys show up to play. Interior tackles Ted Laurent and Lawson Scott are both over 300 pounds, and the monster 340 pound Jerrell Powe is quickly starting to show why he was a five-star prospect coming out of high school. You can make all the reading jokes you want, but literacy isn't really a core competency for playing nose tackle, and Powe can at times dominate interior offensive linemen like he's a man among boys.

At linebacker Ole Miss has had more than their fair share of struggles since Patrick Willis went to the NFL, but they've got a solid group there now. The unit is led by Patrick Trahan, the senior linebacker that Houston Nutt signed out of the JUCO ranks in his first class in Oxford. Trahan started his collegiate career as a safety -- he was a former track athlete in high school -- but he kept getting bigger and bigger so he was moved to linebacker. The end result now is a 6'3, 225+ pound 'backer with great athleticism, and he's tough on opposing offenses. He's big enough to play the run, but also versatile enough to play the pass and rush the passer. He's a legitimate three-phase linebacker. Jonathon Cornell and Allen Walker start alongside Trahan, and while they aren't quite the caliber of Trahan, both are upperclassmen who are more than adequate.

The real surprise of the Ole Miss defense to date, however, has been the defensive backfield. Ole Miss was almost universally expected to struggle in the secondary this year, but surprisingly enough they have allowed very little success through the air. That said, however, we really don't know anything about this group because they have yet to face a decent passing attack, so it could be all a paper tiger for all we know, and if nothing else the Alabama passing game will be easily the best this unit has faced all year. What we can safely say is that so far this year Cassius Vaughn and Marshay Green have been solid at cornerback, Johnny Brown and Kendrick Lewis have been more active than usual at safety, and the back-ups have generally been pretty adequate. But, again, we really have no clue as to whether or not this Ole Miss defensive backfield is a contender or a pretender.

Looking at how we match up against Ole Miss, you really have to worry about our running game. We ran the ball well against Kentucky on the meaningful attempts -- i.e. factoring out the garbage time, clock-killing carries late -- but Arkansas still shut us down, and frankly this is easily the best defensive line we've seen all year. Ole Miss shut down our running game last year better than any other team on the schedule -- we had 31 carries for only 107 yards, averaging a meager 3.1 yards per carry -- and it's going to be very difficult to run on these guys again this year. These guys can flat out whip you in the trenches, and we're going to have to show up ready to play at a very high level if we look to move the football on the ground in Oxford.

Hopefully we will be able to take advantage of Ole Miss in a couple of areas. Their defensive line features a solid, deep rotation, but the linebacker corps is very thin. The starting three are good players, and back-up Lamar Brumfield is a solid, versatile player who can play all three positions. After that, though, all you really have is true freshman D.T. Shackelford -- an Alabama native who the Tide passed over last, so extra motivation there -- and while he has been a bit of a freshman sensation, he is also slowed by a high ankle sprain, and he likely won't play a lot against the Tide. So, it's a thin unit already, and both Trahan and Walker also play extensively on special teams, so hopefully we can wear them down and take advantage of their lack of depth. Likewise, the Ole Miss secondary is also a very small unit -- all starters are 5'11 and under, and three starters are 190 and under -- so hopefully we can really take advantage of the size match-ups with the likes of Julio Jones, Mike McCoy, Earl Alexander, and Michael Bowman.

Now, along those lines, I do like how our passing attack matches up against the Ole Miss secondary, but of course success there is predicated upon us being able to protect Greg McElroy against a very good pass rush. If we can give McElroy time, we should be able to move the football through the air. On the other hand, though, if Ole Miss can legitimately rush the passer, this is not going to be pretty. Either way, this isn't going to be an easy assignment for the Tide's offensive line. Ole Miss is tough off the edge, and Nutt will likely be aggressive in blitz packages, so the offensive line has its work cut out for them.

All in all, this one is a tough match-up for the Tide. Hopefully we can have some success running the football and block Ole Miss off the edge, but that's a lot easier said than done. Ole Miss will be tough to run on, and if they can get to McElroy, we're likely to find ourselves in Oxford with an offense that cannot run or throw effectively. It's going to be one heck of a fight, and we're going to have to play very well to move the football against this defense.

Alabama Defense v. Ole Miss Offense

The good news for Alabama is that this match-up favors the Tide a bit more. The Ole Miss offense is no slouch, to be sure, but it is a unit that has struggled early. Jevan Snead hasn't played anywhere near well enough to justify the preseason hype, the loss of Mike Wallace has hurt more than its gotten credit for, and there has been nothing close to a comparable replacement for Michael Oher.

Really, the struggles of this offense have started up front with the offensive line. The run blocking has been good at times, but has also been terrible at times, too. Smashes at the point of attack that spring good gains have been mixed with whiffs that result in tackles for loss. Pass protection, though, has really been the Achilles Heel of this group. Left tackle Bradley Sowell was beaten to a pulp against South Carolina, and right tackle John Jerry hasn't looked very good either. The interior linemen haven't played much better, either. Houston Nutt and company have rotated in a lot of linemen looking for the right mix, but they haven't found anything yet, and making matters worse this bunch simply looks out of shape. When John Jerry was literally begging to come out of the South Carolina game, all that came to mind for me was Mike Dubose, 2000, and the infamous "Pankcake Posse."

With the struggles up front, the rest of the offense just hasn't been able to compensate. Jevan Snead has been decent at times, but he has generally struggled to complete a high percentage of his passes and he has turned the football over a lot -- only a completion percentage of 51% and five interceptions. With Mike Wallace gone, the Rebels really do not have the big vertical threat in the passing game, and while the likes of Shay Hodge, Markeith Summers, Lionel Breaux, and Patrick Patterson form a solid wide receiver corps, they haven't been able to make up for the loss of Wallace. Likewise, Dexter McCluster is a threat, but he has really been more of a cog than a game-changer thus far in conference play.

The true strength of the Ole Miss offense to date has really been in the backfield with the tailbacks. Brandon Bolden has played as well as any back in the SEC to date, and at 5'11 and 220 pounds he is an absolute load. Back-ups Cordera Eason and Enrique Davis were both highly-touted recruits coming out of high school, and with their raw talent they form one of the most potent backfields in the country. Combined with Dexter McCluster's ability out of the Wildcat, this is a very dangerous group if their offensive line can give them any help up front.

Defensively for the Tide, I'll be brief on the overview because most RBR readers are more than well aware of who we are as a defensive unit, but I will address that the biggest issue we face here is exactly what we will do to replace Dont'a Hightower. Based on the practice reports, it's clear that Cory Reamer will be back at strongside linebacker this week, and we're going to have to be bigger inside to take on an Ole Miss team that will clearly look to be physical at the point of attack and establish the run. Chris Jordan is going to get a lot of playing time this week, and look for both Nico Johnson and Tana Patrick on the field -- even though playing will cost Patrick him a redshirt year.

As a whole, we are going to have a good bit different look defensively this week. Again, Ole Miss is the physical, run-based attack that we've come to expect out of Houston Nutt, and we are simply going to have to play smashmouth football against these guys. Simply put, if our defensive line doesn't show up with more energy and intensity than they did last week in Lexington, it's going to be a long afternoon. This isn't a spread passing attack where we'll constantly be in the nickel; you're going to see a lot of base 3-4 this week with safeties coming into the box to stop the run. The Rebs are far from pass happy.

And with that in mind, Injuries may make an impact on Ole Miss' power running attack. Fullback Andy Hartmann, a senior, is one hell of a lead-blocking load at 5'11 and almost 250 pounds, and he may be the best lead blocker in the conference. However, Hartmann sprained a knee a couple of weeks ago and has missed time. He missed practice on Tuesday, and while he is going to play on Saturday, we don't know how effective he can be and we do not know how much he will be able to play. Likewise, tight end Gerald Harris missed the South Carolina game with a hamstring injury, and while he did return against Vanderbilt, he's probably not 100%. Their back-ups, Dan Hoffman and Ferbia Allen, are a good 20-30 pounds lighter than the first-teamers, so if Hartmann and Harris are at less than 100%, that is going to make it more difficult for Ole Miss to run the football.

Furthermore, we need to use our depth in the defensive front seven to our advantage. Even with injuries to Hightower and Damien Square, plus the suspension of Jerrell Harris, we are still very deep in the front seven, and if the South Carolina game is any accurate indicator, the Ole Miss offensive line isn't in very good physical shape. We need to rotate players all afternoon and wear these guys down. Few things can better insure a 'Bama victory than to have John Jerry once again begging to come out of the game in the second half.

All in all, we're just going to have to line up against Ole Miss and be able to stop the run. That has to be priority #1 going into this game, period. Jevan Snead is overrated, but he can still be a threat, and with Nutt at the helm you have to be adequately prepared for every trick in the book. Nevertheless, those concerns are secondary to stopping the run. Given Snead's turnover issues to date -- which is to say nothing of Ole Miss' struggles in pass protection and the struggles of the receiving corps -- Nutt and company will likely play a bit conservatively here and try to establish the running game. If Ole Miss does that, they can move the football effectively and that will allow them to selectively use Snead and the trickeration to their advantage. On the other hand, though, if we can stop the run, particularly on early downs, we get Ole Miss in a lot of obvious passing situations, which limits the use of the Wildcat and other trick formations, and which also gives our defensive line numerous opportunities to take advantage of their struggles in pass protection and tee off on a quarterback who will be forced to take a lot of seven-step drops while waiting for routes to develop downfield.

Putting It All Together

On the whole, this one looks to be much like the last four contests in this series... a very hard, physical game that goes right down to the wire. Yes Alabama has looked very good to date, and yes Ole Miss wet the bed in their only true test to date. And, yes, Ole Miss was overrated coming into the year, no arguments here. Nevertheless, this is still a pretty good Ole Miss team, and they are a dangerous opponent that is more than capable of pulling off the upset.

Furthermore, the West is still absolutely wide open right now -- three teams are still undefeated, and Ole Miss still controls their own destiny -- and that fact mixed with Nutt's love of playing the underdog role, not to mention the recent acrimony that is surely present in the Ole Miss roster thanks to how this game has turned out the past four years, you can bet your life that Ole Miss will show up to play football on Saturday like men possessed. For all of the talk of Ole Miss wetting the bed, if Johnny Reb can pull off the upset on Saturday, they will quickly vault back into the top 10 and they will once again establish themselves as the front-runners in the SEC West if Florida can beat LSU, as expected. And, of course, rest assured they are well aware of those facts. Make no mistake about it, there is a lot on the line here for Ole Miss, and they will play accordingly. Do not expect Colonel Reb to lay an egg Saturday afternoon.

I do think we are the better team here. We have a tad more top-end talent, and a good bit better quality depth throughout the roster. Nevertheless, again, this is a dangerous Ole Miss team that actually matches up with us pretty well thanks to the strength of their defensive front seven and their ability to rush the passer with a base four-man rush. If you think victory is a near certainty in this game, you really need to drink something other than the crimson Kool-Aid. This should be a close game, and if we play like we did last week in Lexington, we're probably in a lot of trouble. We are a better team here who is justifiably a slight favorite, but nevertheless we are going to have to play really well to go into Oxford and get this victory, and at the very least victory is unlikely to come without one hell of a fight.

Hope for the best.

The SEC West One Month In

Year2 — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 14:30:22 -0000

Divisional Preseason Storyline

The balance of power has shifted from the SEC East to the West. The top three teams are so close as to be interchangeable. Watch out for Arkansas, who could make a second year leap under Bobby Petrino as so many other teams have made second year leaps under good coaches.

One Month In Reality

This division is stronger than the East, but the gap isn't nearly as wide as thought. Alabama is clearly the best team of the bunch.

Preseason Storyline

How is Alabama going to deal with replacing Andre Smith and the rest of the graduating offensive linemen? It was the strength of last year's offense. Can Mark Ingram fill Glen Coffee's shoes? How about that new quarterback guy, Greg McElroy? We've heard some good practice reports, but no one knows how good he'll be until we see him on the field. At least the defense is mostly in tact.

One Month In Reality

Alabama's line has done just fine, and its four-deep at running back is terrifyingly effective. As for Greg McElroy, he's already looking better than John Parker Wilson ever did. For all the talk of Alabama just needing a game manager behind center, McElroy appears capable of being much more. The defense has resumed its role of a marauding band of pillagers, but now it will have to deal with losing Dont'a Hightower.

Preseason Storyline

We will probably get to see the real Bobby Petrino offense now that the rocket-armed pocket statue Ryan Mallett is taking over for the Dick brothers. The Razorbacks were near the top of the conference in passing last year despite the situation under center, so it should be even better now. If the defense can shore itself up some, this team could be a spoiler.

One Month In Reality

The defense may be even worse than last year, as it made Joe Cox look like Joe Montana and turned the Crimson Tide attack into a big play offense. The unit has no hope of keeping things close when the offense isn't clicking. Mallett has been good, as predicted, and his arm is dangerous from anywhere on the field. However, it's not good enough to overcome an elite defense, and it's looking like it will be a while before the Hogs become a real complete team.

Preseason Storyline

Leave it to Auburn to fire a winner for Mr. 5-19. What were they thinking? The defense will probably still be good with Gene Chizik on the staff, but the defense wasn't really the problem last year anyway. Gus Malzahn was an intriguing hire, but what can he do with the hole at quarterback? Will his spread scheme transplant be rejected like Tony Franklin's was?

One Month In Reality

It's hard to argue with much when you're 4-0 and doing it with style. The offense has surpassed 500 total yards in three of the four wins, and is right at the top of the total and scoring offense ranks with Florida. The Tigers returned to their roots as a rushing team as well, as they are currently fifth in the nation in rushing yards per game. Perhaps the most impressive stat of all is that Chris Todd is sixth in the country in passing efficiency. Granted Auburn has played only ~~one~~ two teams from a Big Six conference, so the optimism is tempered a bit. However, they couldn't have put up these kinds of numbers against air last year.

Preseason Storyline

It's time for Les Miles to show something now that all of Nick Saban's players have left. Hiring John Chavis should help shore up the defense, and the offense is probably in good hands with Jordan Jefferson. Everyone who has seen a practice has raved about the skill position players, so it's looking like a bounce back year for the Tigers.

One Month In Reality

LSU is 4-0, but only just. The team is being buoyed by its 23rd ranking in scoring defense, but it is also 49th in total defense, 53rd in scoring offense, and a dismal 105th in total offense. The thing is still a work in progress, with wins over Washington, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State coming a bit too close for comfort. You can make an excuse for all of them (UW was the longest road trip in school history; Vandy does that to all conference front runners every now and then; MSU was an 11 AM game on the road and a look ahead game), but this team is out of them now. A poor performance against Georgia will likely get them beat badly.

Preseason Storyline

This is it. This is the Rebels' year. They finished last year 6-0 and beat the national champs. Most everyone important comes back. Sure it will be tough to replace Michael Oher and Peria Jerry, but with a strong rest of the D-line and the conference's second best quarterback, Ole Miss should still compete for a division championship.

One Month In Reality

Ole Miss does indeed look like the team from last year. Unfortunately, it is the one that began the season 3-4 and not the one that finished strongly. The loss of Oher is looming very large as the offense has sputtered early against Memphis and for the first three quarters against South Carolina. The defense has held up its end of the bargain so far, allowing no more than 14 points in a game, but until Jevan Snead and the offense get back on track, it will be tough to consider the Rebels a true contender to Alabama's throne.

Preseason Storyline

Hiring the offensive coordinator of the national champion, regardless of who that is, has to be considered a bit of a coup for Mississippi State. Now that Dan Mullen is in the fold though, we can't really expect much of him yet. Sylvester Croom, for all of his admirable qualities, never assembled much talent in Starkville, and conversions to spread option attacks seldom go well in the first year. A win or two in the conference would be a good year.

One Month In Reality

A 2-2 start for Mississippi State is encouraging, but it's even moreso when you consider that the Bulldogs could easily be 3-1 if not for the late game heroics of LSU's Chad Jones. MSU collected a conference win against Vanderbilt and looked good in giving LSU the scare of a lifetime. Mullen has taken Croom's offensive cesspool and turned it into the country's 25th best rushing attack. The game against Auburn didn't go so well, but otherwise things are looking up so far.

2009 SEC West Preview & Predictions

outsidethesidelines — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

In attempting to predict the SEC last year, I simply went through each member school's schedule and made definitive picks, game-by-game, and then compiled everything at the end to determine the overall standings and the division champions. For the 2009 season, however, I decided to scrap that format. As appealing as picking individual games can be simply because of its definitive nature, in many ways it is just a waste of time because there is just entirely too much random chance involved in each particular game, and on the whole it's far better to simply view the season in its entirety instead of trying to dissect its individual components from the outset.

To that end, this year I'm going to focus more on teams as a whole and make final predictions from there, thus omitting the individual game predictions. Moreover, unlike last year where I predicted the entire SEC, this year I'm going to focus only on the SEC West. My thought is that unless the terrorists successfully carry out jihad against Gainesville, the Gators are going to win the East by a mile, and frankly if you aren't a fan of one of the other five SEC Eastern Division members, who really cares what order they go in two through six? Thus, here goes my SEC West preview and predictions for 2009:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Coming into the season as the prohibitive favorites for the first time in ages, a quick look reveals why the prognosticators have been so high on the Tide. This is the most talented team we've seen in Tuscaloosa in ages, and the defensive side of the ball should probably be stronger than any defense the Tide has fielded since 1992. With the strength of the front seven -- a front seven that could legitimately feature three All-American candidates -- 'Bama should once again field an elite run defense. The loss of Rashad Johnson won't help things, but 'Bama led the SEC in conference play last year in pass efficiency defense, and by returning every other member of the two-deep rotation in the defensive backfield -- not to mention additions from Dre Kirkpatrick and Burton Scott -- a drop-off in performance is unlikely. Furthermore, things could even better, because for the first team since 2002, Alabama looks to have the pieces in place to at least be a solid pass rushing team, and even a solid, consistent pass rush would work wonders for the overall pass defense given the quality of defensive backs the Tide has.

The offense, too, has more than its fair share of strengths. Mike Johnson is one of the best guards in the country, and Colin Peek will be one of the conference's upper echelon tight ends if he can stay relatively healthy. Of course there is Julio Jones, already probably the greatest pure wide receiver in the history of Alabama football, but aside from him the rest of the receiving corps is deep with many talented playmakers in the fold. Likewise, the backfield is loaded with elite talent including the likes of Mark Ingram, Roy Upchurch, Trent Richardson, and others. And as an additional matter, quality depth on both sides of the ball is better than we have in years in Tuscaloosa.

With that glowing overview in mind, however, this is far from a flawless team. Greg McElroy has made tremendous amounts of progress in the past 18 months, and he has done effectively all that the coaching staff has asked him to do until this point. I think 'Bama fans can be as confident as can reasonably be expected with him under center, but until you step under center against a hostile defense in a real, live situation, frankly you can never really know what to expect. I think it's fair to say that the reasonable expectation for McElroy right now is that he will provide solid play at the quarterback position, but that is not to say anyone should be overly shocked if he suddenly turned into a liability.

The real concern, though, is the offensive line. The ideal situation for the Tide, of course, is to have the line mow over opponents like last year, dominating the game and turning McElroy into a game manager. Unfortunately, there's no such guarantee of that. The official depth chart will not be released until next week, but that notwithstanding, the starting five is this, going left to right: James Carpenter, Mike Johnson, William Vlachos, Barrett Jones, and Drew Davis. And I'll be frank, though quality depth is much improved, I think we should be a bit concerned with this group. Barrett Jones may play well at right guard (and I figure he is at least decent), but his presence is a major surprise, and we won't be able to give Drew Davis near the help from backs and tight ends that we did a year ago without having Andre Smith locking down the other side. Mike Johnson should do well again, but while James Carpenter and William Vlachos look to be solid players, a step down in performance from what we had a year ago at those positions is probably to be expected. As a whole, I don't think you have to worry about the line being bad -- far from it, I think the line should be pretty good -- but by the same token, I think we'll struggle somewhat in pass protection this year (as we did last year), and in the running game this line probably won't be able to consistently annihilate opponent's at the point of attack like it's predecessor did a year ago. That translates into putting more pressure on McElroy and forcing him to make more plays in the passing game, all of which could turn relatively easy wins into close games, and close wins into close losses.

Finally, special teams remains a legitimate concern for the Tide. Our coverage units should do really well simply because the great athletes we will be able to put on special teams, but the rest remains a concern. There is no doubting that Javier Arenas is an elite returner who will generate his fair share of big plays, but his decision making ability on punt returns is highly questionable at best, and many times last year he gave the opposition points on turnovers as a result of his poor decision making. Moreover, Leigh Tiffin will probably remain highly inconsistent at best (even when he is healthy), and frankly we do not want to see him trotting on the field with the game on the line. Likewise, he doesn't routinely get great distance and / or hang time on his kick-offs, another concern. Along those same lines, P.J. Fitzgerald at punter is a concern as well. He has slowly progressed and improved in his time at Alabama, but he's a small kid with an average-at-best leg, so he has most likely reached his peak. The smart money is clearly on yet another year in which Fitzgerald cannot produce great distance or hang time on his punts. As a result, despite some likely good coverage units and big plays from Javier Arenas, special teams isn't likely to be a strength for the Tide in 2009, and may in fact even be a liability.

Fortunately for Alabama the schedule does set up nicely. The opener against Virginia Tech will be a tough one -- and a loss there, at the very least, likely eliminates the Tide from BCS bowl contention (unless they can run the table from there) -- but a win there and it's relatively easily sledding until the road trip to Oxford the second week of October. Likewise, even after the Rebels, Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina, and UT-Chattanooga remain on the schedule, all four of which should be wins. An upset loss here and there wouldn't be a shock, but the defense and the coaching is good enough to guarantee at least nine wins barring either a complete meltdown by either McElroy, or a terrible run of injury luck.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Bobby Petrino's debut campaign in Fayetteville has about as many obstacles as expected, but things seemingly look much better for year two. It's clear that Petrino and company are still rebuilding the Razorbacks, but this is a much better squad than what we faced last year in Fayetteville, and all of those teams that got an easy win over the Hogs last year won't be so lucky in 2009.

The biggest single addition for Arkansas comes at the quarterback position. The Hogs spent most of last year with Casey and Nathan Dick at quarterback, and suffered the consquences thereof. Neither of the two were legitimate SEC caliber players, but all of that changes this year with the arrival of the gargantuan Ryan Mallett. A former five-star recruit from Texarkana, Mallett played as a freshman for Michigan before transferring to Fayetteville after the arrival of Rich Rodriguez. Mallett will start in 2009 for the Hogs, and in doing so he will not only be a major upgrade over both of the Dick sisters, but he'll have the strongest arm of any SEC quarterback. The reasonable expectation at this point is that Mallett will be one of the conference's top quarterbacks.

And, even aside from Mallett, there are a lot of other promising players at the skill positions for the Hogs. Tight end D.J. Williams is probably the best that the conference has to offer, and scatback Michael Smith -- who led the SEC in all purpose yardage last year -- is probably the best back you've never heard of. He's small, but he has great speed and agility, he's surprisingly effective as an inside returner, and he's much more durable than you would expect given his small frame. Likewise, with Dennis Johnson, De'Anthony Curtis, Broderick Green, and Ronnie Wingo rounding out the rest of the backfield, it's a highly talented group. Moreover, while the wide receiver corps doesn't really feature any truly great playmaker, it's a deep, solid group of guys who have shown that they can get the job done.

The real concern on the offensive side of the ball is the line. Three starters return from a year ago, and a fourth starter (Mitch Petrus) is actually a player who started in 2007. Unfortunately for the Hogs, though, All-American center Jonathon Luigs is gone, and in general the returning starters are the ones who were weak links a year ago. The tackles, in particular, Ray Dominguez and DeMarcus Love, have struggled with edge rushers, and if anything both of those guys probably should be playing inside at guard. All in all, it's just a bit of a concern for the Hogs. If these guys can consistently keep Mallett upright, the Hogs look to have a very potent offense, and one that could give even the best defenses legitimate trouble. On the other hand, a struggling offensive line will almost certainly slow what must be the unit that carries the Hogs to victory in 2009.

The defense, too, remains a major concern. The Hogs struggled defensively in 2007, and were even worse last year. In 2008 they were dead last in the conference in run defense, and the pass defense wasn't much better. Some steps may be made in the right direction in 2009 -- a couple of JUCO transfers in the defensive backfield should help, plus most of the defensive line returns -- but they still have a lot of issues, and it's unlikely that the Hogs will be able to move out of the cellar in most defensive categories in 2009.

All in all, the Hogs are a team that is clearly moving in the right direction, and they will be a dangerous team in 2009. Last year they knocked off LSU, Auburn, and almost beat Ole Miss. Rest assured they will get a couple of big-name upsets this year as well. Though sheer strength of schedule will dictate a few more roadblocks for the Hogs in 2009 -- five teams on their schedule are currently ranked in the AP top 15 -- this is a dangerous team, and one that could really surprise a lot of people if the defense can show some signs of life.

Auburn Tigers

Following their worst season in a decade, Auburn made a different kind of splash hire by bringing in former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik. Though near suicidal upon first hearing the news, most Auburn fans are now predictably bathing in the Kool-Aid, but looking at the Tigers in an objective light reveals that their fan base probably had it right to start with. On the whole, it's nearly impossible to believe their fall from grace in recent years. After going a combined 34-5 from 2004-2006, Auburn now finds itself with scholarship levels reminiscent of a program undergoing major NCAA sanctions, and possessing a depth chart paper thin in terms of both elite talent and quality depth. Things are so bad that almost any true freshman -- though they came from a highly unimpressive recruiting class -- healthy enough to play will be required do so in 2009, and a few walk-ons will be expected to contribute as well. From the outset, the mere fact that the athletic director is publicly trying to cool expectations for the program for the next couple of years ought to tell you all you need to know about their future prospects.

Chris Todd surprised many when he won the starting quarterback job all of a week into Fall camp, but despite a surgically repaired throwing shoulder, Todd's starting job probably has more to do with the shortcomings of the other candidates than it does his own skills. Neil Caudle is a bust now, as is Kodi Burns, and they are going to try to run some Wildcat-type stuff with Burns at the helm. But, of course, no one really knows what to expect of the newfangled Auburn offense. It's going to be a spread offense, but apparently one that is run-heavy, and it's also going to be a hurry-up offense to boot. And yes that's a major break from offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn's track record, and yes they are going to run some Wildcat as well. So, no, I don't have any clue as to what they are going to do, and frankly I doubt anyone else does either.

And, truth be told, it probably doesn't matter one way or the other regardless of what they do. Todd is likely to be a below average quarterback, and the offensive line looks to struggle. Lee Ziemba and Ryan Pugh look good (when healthy), but the rest of the line looks to be in major trouble. Byron Isom, Mike Berry, and Andrew McCain are nothing special, and the depth on this unit is ridiculously thin. A kid like Chris Capps would easily see playing time with this group. And making matters worse, there is zero proven depth at wide receiver. About the only good thing you can say about this offense is that the tailbacks look to be a solid group. On the whole, though, given the overall lack of depth, good quarterback play, and game-changers at the skill positions, this offense looks to struggle regardless of what type of offensive system they implement, which is exactly the reason I'm not going to waste any time here trying to predict exactly what they are going to do offensively. Again, wishbone, run and shoot, whatever, the end result is almost certainly the same.

On defense, too, Auburn has a lot of problems. Last year's group was strong one hindered only by an incompetent defense, but a lot has changed since then. Guys like Trey Blackmon and Jerraud Powers left early, and what is left is largely a shell of what once was. The entire group is thin as a whole, and outside of Josh Bynes and Antonio Coleman, it's hard to identify many defenders who are clearly above average at this point. Mike McNeil is a fine player at safety, but he broke a leg in Spring practice, and at this point it looks like he is going to miss a few weeks of the season at least. Eltoro Freeman is a JUCO transfer who could really help out and be an impact player, but he has missed time this Fall with both an arm injury and a leg injury. All in all, much like the offense, the defense features very few top-end players, and almost no quality depth whatsoever.

On the whole, Auburn has a fairly decent starting 22, but considering modern day college football is a game that needs 50-55 good, solid contributors in order to play at a high level, that doesn't do them much good. Again, quality depth is the name of the game in football, and Auburn possesses almost none of that precious commodity. The schedule isn't easy in 2009, either, and frankly only Furman and Ball State are guaranteed wins. Of course Auburn will get more wins than that, I'm sure, but the point remains that wins likely won't come frequently for the '09 Tigers, and the few that do will likely be the result of some very close, hard fought contests. Much like last year, Auburn expects to be fighting tooth and nail with Mississippi State for last place in the SEC West.

LSU Tigers

After a disappointing 2008 campaign, the Bayou Bengal faithful hopes for improvement in 2009, and in all fairness they probably should get it. Jordan Jefferson, at the least, shouldn't be quite as disastrous as Jarrett Lee was a year ago, and while John Chavis is not a spectacular hire at defensive coordinator -- and in fact one I don't like in the long run -- he's an upgrade over what they had a year ago. As a result,

At quarterback the job belongs all to Jordan Jefferson now, and we'll have to see what he has made of. The LSU Hype Machine naturally has him as a superstar in the works, but a more objective view reveals more question marks and uncertainty. He played decent football last year -- relative to what Jarrett Lee did anyway -- but nevertheless he struggled to complete passes, and he took a ton of sacks thanks to his poor decision-making abilities. Based on what Jefferson has shown us, he looks to be a solid player eventually, but he still has a lot to prove, and all of these purple and gold notions just assuming that it's only a matter of time before he becomes a star quarterback are really just wishful thinking more than anything else. For now, what we can reasonably say about Jefferson is that he has a nice physical skill set with good long-term upside, and that if the LSU coaching staff uses him wisely, he might not be a top-end player this year but he will at least provide solid play and not turn the LSU offense into a trainwreck like Jarrett Lee did a year ago.

The rest of the skill positions are generally in good shape in Baton Rouge. Brandon LaFell will be one of the conference's top receivers, and likewise Richard Dickson will be one of the conference's top tight ends. Charles Scott is one of the conference's better tailbacks, and there is a lot of depth in the backfield with Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy, and incoming freshman Mike Ford. Likewise, while I don't think Russell Shephard will ever be an above average quarterback in this league, he's clearly an elite athlete, and I'm sure the LSU coaching staff will find some ways to take advantage of that this year. The only real concern at the skill positions is a lack of experienced depth, but the Tigers have recruited extremely well, and tremendous amounts of raw talent and athleticism are everywhere, so they should likely be fine even though they are not particularly experienced. Besides, experience at the skill positions tends to be a bit overrated, and in any event the Tigers aren't likely to face a legitimate test until the fifth week of the season when they go on the road to face Georgia, so again lack of experience shouldn't be a major concern.

The real concern with LSU's offense in many ways, much like Alabama, is with the offensive line. Jefferson is still green and ideally the coaching staff would be able to use a highly successful running game to take pressure off of him, but again there is no guarantee that will happen. Ciron Black is clearly the best tackle in the conference now, and Joseph Barksdale is more than adequate at right tackle. However, the interior linemen aren't necessariliy strengths. Gone are left guard Herman Johnson and center Brett Helms -- both punishing blockers in the running game -- and while Lyle Hitt returns at right guard, I've always considered him to be the weak link of the line. Making matters worse, T-Bob Hebert was expected to start at center after the departure of Helms, but he has been banged up in Fall camp, and that too is in question now. Moreover, this is a young line that probably doesn't have as much depth as you would at first imagine. The bottom line is that center / guard play of the interior linemen is exponentially important to the success of the running game, and if LSU has trouble here -- regardless of their strengths at the tackle position -- the running game will suffer, and more pressure will be put on Jefferson to make plays on his own. Again, as was the case with Alabama and Greg McElroy, that could very well result in more mistakes from the quarterback position, which can easily turn relatively easy wins into nailbiters, and close wins into close losses.

Defensively, the Bayou Bengals look to rebound from its worst showing in years in 2008. Truth be told, though, the LSU defense a year ago was a tale of two stories... a really good run defense, mixed with a really bad pass defense. And the bad news for the Tigers is that the cornerstones of the run defense -- the defensive line and linebacker Derry Beckwith -- have all moved on to the next level, so there are legitimate question marks there. Most of the defensive backfield returns, but again it is returning a unit that couldn't stop the pass, despite the fact that they were constantly helped by a good pass rush. Nevertheless, LSU has boatloads of talent all over the defense, and the real question is just whether or not they can take full advantage of it. They couldn't do that a year ago and struggled, but it will take an equally bad showing by both coaches and players to get a repeat performance of that poor effort in 2009.

All in all, LSU is a difficult projection, easily the most difficult of the entire SEC, and perhaps even the country. You still have questions at quarterback, and the running game may not go as smoothly as many assume. Furthermore, while the talent is there on the defensive side of the ball, and while John Chavis is an upgrade over Peveto and Mallory, he himself on occasion did field some bad defenses in Knoxville despite having loads of elite talent up on ol' Rocky Top. Plus, each and every year since arriving in Baton Rouge, Les Miles and company have lost games to some not so impressive teams that they should have easily won, and that will likely continue in 2009. On the other hand, LSU is easily still one of the nationally elite programs in terms of raw talent and athleticism, and the schedule once again is doing them a huge favor. Their athletic department continued a commitment to cupcakes approach to non-conference scheduling in 2009 -- getting 0-12 Washington, mixed in with Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Tulane -- and that combined with the luck of drawing the likely three worst SEC teams (Auburn, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt) means that they could play very poorly and still easily sleepwalk to seven wins. As I said two weeks ago, if I had to give all the possible outcomes, I'd say LSU could go anywhere from 7-5 to 11-1, and I'd give them a 20% chance of each individual outcome. Exactly where will they end up along that spectrum? It'll probably come down to the same two things it did a year ago: coaching and quarterback play, but trying to predict exactly where cannot be anything more than a pure guess at this point. Only with ignorance could you be particularly certain of that prediction at this point.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

After showing some signs of life for almost the first time in a decade, the Bulldogs came crashing back down in 2008, and the struggles brought a new regime to Mississippi State. Out is Sylvester Croom, and for the first time in almost 20 years a non-Alabama alum is roaming the sidelines in Starkville, as Dan Mullen takes over for the Bullies. And in all fairness to MSU, it's not a bad hire. Mullen is a young, energetic coach who is on the rise, and one who already has a couple of national championship rings on his resume. His hire may very well have been better than either Lane Kiffin or Gene Chizik.

That notwithstanding, though, it looks to be a very harsh reality for the Bulldogs in 2009. Mullen may have been hired because of his offensive background, but it's hard to see him breathing any life into this offense in 2009. It's been hapless for years, and with the 5'10 and 195 pound Tyson Lee leading the offense this year, it's hard to see that changing. It will probably be a major shock if he can withstand a year's worth of pounding in the SEC, and even if he can he's not likely to be very effective anyway. True freshman Tyler Russell is the quarterback of the future in any event, and his reign will likely begin sometime this year in Starkville. That's good news in one sense because Russell is a much more talented player than Lee, and he's a bitter fit for Mullen's spread option system, but I'll let you do the math on the success true freshmen quarterbacks have in this league while surrounded by poor supporting casts.

And speaking of that poor supporting cast, I think that's probably the nicest way to put it. The wide receiver corps has some problems, to put it mildly. Brandon McRae is a fine wide receiver, but who knows how he will rebound from the gruesome, Prothro-esque broken leg he suffered last year against Ole Miss? And aside from McRae, there really are no proven commodities. JUCO transfer Leon Berry will be counted on heavily, and from there true freshmen like Chad Bumphis will get a great chance at playing time. Mullen's spread needs a lot of quality receivers, and the Bulldogs just don't have it right now. Likewise, the offensive line doesn't look very good either. To be sure, most of the starters return from a year ago, but MSU has struggled in the trenches for ages now, and the physical brand of football that the Dawgs often played with under Croom will do them no good under Mullen. How will the MSU linemen handle the transition to the spread option? It's anyone's guess, but nearly everyone will be surprised if they do it with any considerable degree of success.

Probably the best player State has, period, is tailback Anthony Dixon, but even with him you have to worry. He's a big, powerful running back who gets the job done between the tackles. Now, one of you readers, remind me... how successful has Urban Meyer been with big, powerful, between the tackle running backs? His only success with them has been signing them, and then watching them flame out as recruiting busts. His offense has no real need for such a player, and Mullen's might not at MSU either. I'm sure he'll try to work Dixon into the mix as much as possible just because he's one of the few talented players he has, but at the end of the day the point remains that Dixon is built to run out of the I-formation and in between the tackles, not as the centerpiece of the spread option. Look for Christian Ducre to get more of a role there simply because he's a better fit for the scheme.

And the defense is probably in just as bad of shape as the offense. Defense was the strong point of the Croom teams, but only three starters are returning in 2009. The defensive line is both small and without any great amount of depth, so much so that when JUCO transfer Pernell McPhee -- a good player in his own right, in all fairness -- stepped on campus, he probably became State's top lineman almost instantaneously. That's good news for State, but the bad news is that he'll likely have to be a truly dominant player just to give the rest of the line a fighting chance. Likewise, the defensive secondary is effectively a complete makeover. Marcus Washington returns at cornerback, and Damein Anderson looks to start opposite him, with Derek Pegues gone, the rest of the Bulldog secondary seemingly either lacks the size or speed (or both) needed to be high-end defensive backs in this conference. Last year's defensive backfield was a good unit for the Dawgs, but it'd be a major surprise if this revamped unit could pull off the trick again this year.

The only good news for the Dawgs on defense comes at linebacker. If Jamar Chaney successfully returns from his leg injury, he'll be a top end player, and perhaps the most underrated defensive player in the entire conference. Aside from Chaney, both K.J. Wright and Chris White are solid players in their own right, and if this unit can stay healthy, it has a chance to be a good one. Unfortunately, the rest of the defense looks to struggle so much in front of them and behind them that it probably won't give them much of a chance to shine.

As I've said before, I've always had a soft spot for the traditionally hapless Bullies, and I like Dan Mullen to boot, but objectively speaking it looks to be a long year ahead for them. They'll start off with a good fluff win over Jackson State, but from there the schedule is brutal. They will almost certainly be underdogs in every single conference game, Georgia Tech will go through them like a hot knife through butter, and even Houston and Middle Tennessee State probably aren't sure wins.

Ole Miss Rebels

The media darlings of the SEC this year, Ole Miss made a big jump last year, and many in the national media are betting that they will make yet another big jump in 2009. Yet, interestingly enough, they were picked to finish third in their own division at SEC Media Days. And that brings me to a point that I keep coming across... the further away you get from the Ole Miss program, the more heightened the expectations are for the 2009 season. The closer you get to it, the lower the expectations get. Personally, I think that is because the people who follow the program on a closer level than the national pundits are able to spot some flaws and weaknesses that the national pundits are apparently overlooking in their rush to deify the Rebels as the next big thing.

And make no mistake about it, despite the hype in some circles, this team does have a lot of holes and a lot of concerns. Jevan Snead is a fine quarterback, and the backfield is generally loaded, but the offensive line looks to be a major concern. The loss of Michael Oher cannot be overstated, simply because he was an elite talent and because the Rebels do not have anywhere even near his level of ability now that can replace him. Many hoped Bobby Massie would be able to do that, but after arriving in Oxford only about three weeks back, that is highly unlikely. And making matters worse, both starting guards are gone as well, and frankly the replacements don't look to be anything overly special. Of the remaining linemen, only John Jerry looks to be one of the best in his conference at his position, and the rest of the starting five have more of the look of a below average line than anything else. It's basically the exact same problem Alabama has, only that the Rebels don't have anywhere near the number of talented players to fill the holes.

A lesser concern on the offensive side of the ball can also be found at wide receiver. With Mike Wallace gone to the NFL, only Shay Hodges remains in Oxford. Hodges is a fine player in his own right, but from there things get dicy. Dexter McCluster will assume the role of a full-time starter now in Wallace's absence, and while McCluster certainly has the talent, he thrived last year in a jack of all trades role, and no one knows how he will do as more of a traditional, full-time wide receiver. And after McCluster, the proven commodities are pretty non-existent. Players like Lionel Breaux and Markeith Summers aren't necessarily bad players, but by the same token they aren't the ultra-elite athletes that you find at a place like LSU where you can almost just assume that you can plug and play them and they will perform at a high level. The Rebels are probably going to have to rely heavily on true freshman Pat Patterson.

And the defensive side of the ball has more concerns than the offense. Peria Jerry was the key to Ole Miss' stout run defense last year, and he is now with the Atlanta Falcons, and just like with Michael Oher, the Rebels do not seem to have a player of comparable quality to replace him. Ted Laurent and Lawson Scott will play a lot inside, but I really don't think they would play for any other SEC contender, and for all of his recruiting hype and academic saga, Jerrell Powe has done nothing of note to this point. Likewise, at linebacker, it's a thin unit with no true star players. It's not exactly what you what you dream of having when you prepare for a tough run through an SEC schedule.

Defensive end is a clear strength, and if Greg Hardy finally gets things together, he along with Marcus Tillman and Kentrell Lockett will probably form the best defensive end rotation in the SEC. Unfortunately, that strength is off-set by more concerns in the secondary. They really struggled against the pass last year -- despite having the conference's best pass rush -- and while three starters return, none of those returning players seem to be particularly good. More struggles against the pass seem likely for 2009. Moreover, Houston Nutt's two major recruiting additions to the defensive backfield have already flamed out. Jamar Horsnby, the five-star who washed out of Florida after being caught using a dead woman's credit card, has been kicked off the team after yet another run-in with the law. His next stop will likely be jail. And speaking of jail, the other big recruiting addition to the defensive backfield for Nutt in 2009, Tig Barksdale, also spent some time there recently after being arrested on charges of DUI and driving without a license. Now, Barksdale will not enroll this Fall as a result of "medical issues."

So what do you have when you put it all together with the Rebels? You've got a good quarterback, a good backfield, a couple of good receivers, and a great pass rush. But you've also got major concerns with the offensive line, a middling linebacker corps, a suspect interior to the defensive line, a secondary that will likely struggle again, and a team with very little depth at almost every single position. And your head coach has disappointed almost every single time high preseason expectations have been placed upon his teams. Does that sound like a championship team to you? I'll let you be the judge of that.

Of course, this is not to overly denigrate the Rebels. They went 9-4 a year ago, and they have enough strengths to knock off almost anyone they face on any given day. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them knock off either Alabama or LSU, or both for that matter. However, before we deify the Rebels, it should be kept in mind that they have enough weaknesses to where they could just as easily lose those big games, and also lose some that they are expected to win. When everyone looks back on the 2008 Rebels, they love to remember them as the team that beat Florida in the Swamp, the team that blew out LSU, and the team that spanked Texas Tech. Yet the fact that they lost at home to Vanderbilt, lost at home to South Carolina, lost to Wake Forest, and needed a squeaker to hold off 5-7 Arkansas gets completely overlooked. Bottom line, the Rebels have enough strengths to win a lot of games and get some big wins, but they also have enough weaknesses to where they are also likely to lose some games they should not, and once again, just like last year, be left outside the championship chase.

Final SEC West Predictions

(1) Alabama: 10-2 (6-2)*

(1) LSU: 10-2 (6-2)*

(3) Ole Miss: 9-3 (5-3)

(4) Arkansas: 7-5 (3-5)

(5) Auburn: 5-7 (2-6)

(6) Mississippi State: 3-9 (1-7)

* A two-way tie atop the SEC West between Alabama and LSU, with the winner of the November 7th Alabama v. LSU game in Tuscaloosa advancing to Atlanta to face the Florida Gators.

Comparing the Online Recruiting Ranking Services

Buck Bravo — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

Rivals, Scout, and ESPN all provide ranking systems for recruits headed to Division 1 football programs. Often, ratings of individual players will vary greatly from one service to another. In an attempt to determine which service most accurately projects the future performance of players, let's take a look at the ratings that were given to the 2009 NFL first round draft picks back when they were being recruited for college football:

PICK

NAME

COLLEGE

TEAM

RIVALS

STARS

SCOUT

STARS

ESPN

RATING

Matthew Stafford

Georgia

Jason Smith

Baylor

Tyson Jackson

LSU

Aaron Curry

OLB

Wake Forest

Mark Sanchez

USC

Andre Smith

Alabama

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Maryland

Virginia

Boston College

Texas Tech

Penn State

Georgia

Texas

Ohio State

OLB

USC

Northern Illinois

Kansas State

Tennessee

Missouri

Oklahoma State

California

Florida

Ole Miss

Ole Miss

Illinois

OLB

USC

Donald Brown

Connecticut

Louisville

North Carolina

Rutgers

Ohio State

Missouri

ESPN did not start ranking recruits until 2006, so players from before that time have no ranking. Despite this limitation, let's look at the trend lines for the different services:

While Scout may have had the most 5 star rankings for recruits who ultimately became first round NFL draft choices, Rivals had the best trendline for accurately ranking future NFL talent. A more comprehensive analysis looking at later rounds and previous years would best determine which service best analyzes talent. If I were retired or writing for TDG full time, I'd be eager to put such a report together for later this week. For now, the first round of the 2009 NFL draft will have to suffice.

An Interview with Sports Illustrated's Andy Staples

kleph — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 12:00:15 -0000

SI says, "Kool Aid tastes great!"

The Sports Illustrated College Football Preview issue hit the stands this week and that vaunted publication decided to put Ole Miss on the cover as the team to watch this season. Just like everyone else. Not only is Alabama two slots behind the Rebels on the magazine's Top 20 list, but they pick Ole Miss to win the SEC West and face Florida in the SEC Championship on Dec. 5.

As soon as I got wind of this I said there's somebody got some 'splainin to do. I picked up the phone and started screaming at every mid-level panjandrum in the American Management Association Building in New York I could reach until I found out who the bastard was responsible for this outrage!

Well... not exactly. What actually happened was their PR people sent us an e-mail out of the blue asking if we'd like to talk to the SI SEC writer to promote this issue of the magazine and we said, "sure."

So yesterday morning I gave Andy Staples a call and despite the fact he's on leave due to the recent birth of his son (and for that blessed occasion we extend our warmest congratulations to both he and his wife) he was more than willing to chat a bit and expand on the points he made about Alabama in the current issue of the magazine.

In addition, Andy took the time to ~~throw his SI colleagues under the bus~~ explain why Ole Miss is so popular in the polls, outline what he believes is the real balance of power in the SEC this season and detail how he thinks "The Process" is progressing in Tuscaloosa.

So, why do you hate Alabama so much?

What? I owe Alabama my life! My parents met in a class in Tuscaloosa. It was a math class and my mom had gotten an A on a test and my dad had gotten a D or an F and he looked over her shoulder and said "Can I study with you?" And that was how they met. I would not be here if it were not for the University of Alabama.

That’s pretty awesome.

My mom actually took a "Folk and Square Dancing" class with Kenny Stabler. Of course, from what she said, he wasn't in class very often.

Why is there all this Ole Miss love this pre-season?

Well, it’s got to be somebody. Actually if you are talking about the main rankings in the magazine, that’s a collective thing which is the result of a bunch of people on staff getting together to come up with the list. If you look at my first AP poll you’ll see those schools [in the SEC West] are actually a lot closer together. The fact is Ole Miss has a strong team. They lost Peria Jerry and Michael Oher, and that’s a lot to lose, but they are still bringing a lot of talent back this year.

And their schedule is really favorable particularly when compared to the other SEC schools … other than Florida who got the best draw of any SEC school I’ve seen in a year they are supposed to be good. Ole Miss does have to go to South Carolina and to Vanderbilt early but that’s about as tough as it gets before they get into the real meat of it. Potentially they could be meeting Alabama on Oct. 10 undefeated.

And part of it is novelty. It’s pretty unusual to have Ole Miss being seriously considered for a National Championship any year. When it’s LSU and Alabama, people are a lot more used to hearing about them.

Ole Miss has one of the premier QB's in the conference.

OK. What about Alabama? How much of our placement is due to what happened in January in the Sugar Bowl rather than what we are likely to put on the field next month?

I think people are looking at the Utah game and how the [offensive] line played and are thinking that’s how the line will play this year. And that’s just wrong. I was an offensive lineman myself and I can tell you, when you take out a guy that close to game time [Andre Smith's suspension] and you shuffle things around… there is not going to be any chemistry. Things are not going to go very well for you. Utah took advantage of that.

Now, even if you took those very same guys but after they have been through spring and fall practices, they would be a completely different unit. That line last year was so good. Antoine Caldwell, was such a leader, and Andre Smith was fantastic so with those guys gone, the big question in the minds of people is how will the line gel and work together? From what I’ve read, the line still remains in flux. So, yes, I think a lot of observers want to see that offensive line and how it comes together before bumping Alabama higher in the rankings.

How much of the uncertainty is due to previous years when we had substantially less depth to draw on when we lost such players?

I think there is that expectation that those players are not going to be there to fill in those positions whereas with Texas or USC you just expect there will be someone waiting to step in and perform at the same level. I think you will see that happen with Florida and Alabama in the next few years. This is where you should really start to see the effect of Nick Saban’s recruiting. Obviously you had some guys like Julio Jones and Don'ta Hightower and those guys who blossomed early. But the impact of those strong recruiting classes coming along as they are supposed to will start to be seen with this group this year.

Is there any way that Greg McElroy isn’t an upgrade from JPW?

Nobody knows. I’ve never seen a quarterback no more roundly criticized than Wilson but McElroy is an unknown quantity. From what I'm hearing, people are likely to be surprised by McElroy’s athleticism and ability to scramble when a play breaks down. Which is great for an offensive line that is trying to come together since it’s a little easier to protect a quarterback that can move around like that.

But nobody has seen how McElroy performs on the biggest stage. If this were USC or Texas, he’d be getting that benefit of the doubt. But because Alabama isn’t seen as having hit that stride in terms of depth the general perception is he’s got to prove himself. Obviously, he may answer every single question on Sept. 5 because, for an opening game it doesn’t get any bigger than what Alabama is playing.

So that makes the opening game with Virginia Tech that much more important?

But that could help as well. In Destin in May [at the annual SEC meetings], Nick Saban was discussing why he does certain things and from a recruiting aspect playing the feature game on opening night is big but, more than that even, a game like that to start the season dictates how your off season is going to go. That's what the team is striving for all of the off-season. All of those players know there is a BCS conference champion waiting to play them and they have to be ready for it. And I wonder… look at Florida, for example. They open against Charleston Southern. How do you get psyched up to face Charleston Southern?

The Rebels' schedule is remarkably favorable this season.

But Virginia Tech isn’t a conference game. Who is going to be our big test in the SEC?

You guys need to worry about LSU. I think LSU is going to be a lot better… a lot better. I think they have the potential, if they can put all the pieces together, to beat everybody. My post Spring top 25 I had them at No. 13 and now I’ve got them up to No. 9. I keep moving them up every time I talk to someone over there.

What has impressed you so much?

To start, they’ve got a pretty experienced offensive line. They have got the best returning back in the SEC with Charles Scott. Jordan Jefferson was a much better back at the end of the season than Jarrett Lee who was their downfall in a lot of games last year. Defensively they are going to be better as well. They’ve moved people around. They’ve got their defensive linemen this year that haven’t had a chance to really show what they can do.

Then they’ve got Chad Jones as their starting free safety which probably should have happened a year ago. Everyone keeps talking about Eric Berry as a Heisman Candidate but Jones is up there with him in terms of athletic ability. I love Eric Berry and the way he plays but Chad Jones could be that kind of guy at LSU.

They have got a lot of talent and guys that know how to put it together. Alabama fans should know that [Defensive Coordinator] John Chavis [formerly at Tennessee] can put a good defense together. Last year the book on these guys was they were very predictable and offenses knew exactly what they were going to do. Chavis’ whole MO is disguising where the pressure is going to come from, disguising the kind of coverage you are going to see.

So, how about the East? Is Florida the shoo-in for the SEC Championship that every seems to think they are?

One thing that is clear after last year is that everybody is beatable. There are no unbeatable teams anymore. An upper echelon SEC team can beat Florida, but it depends on the day. Most days, given the team they have right now, Florida will win those games. Sure, Florida probably has more talent than anyone else right now, at least more experienced talent, but that’s only part of the equation. Florida is likely going to face LSU, Alabama or Ole Miss in the SEC Championship and any of those three teams can beat them on a given day.

What about Georgia?

I think people are going to be stunned by Georgia this year. People don’t seem to appreciate the amount of injuries that squad suffered last year. They had an obscene number, something like 19 players, including a number of key players, for the season. Their second day of practice they lost their starting left tackle [Trinton Sturdivant] and their first game they lost a starting defensive tackle [Jeff Owens]. Nobody recovers from that kind of losses, I don’t care how deep you think your roster may be.

They are going to win ten games and [Georgia quarterback Joe] Cox is a lot like McElroy, he’s come from a great high school program then had to wait behind another guy for awhile so nobody knows what he can do yet. This really smacks of 2005 when people said they had lost all these great players and they were going to go into the tank and DJ Shockley comes in and leads them to an SEC Championship.

A host of starters are returning to Oxford this year.

So, basically, despite the popular perception of the pecking order, the SEC is pretty much a crap shoot this year?

Especially the West. Don’t forget there is a team out in Fayetteville, Arkansas that has the potential to beat anybody as well. So, it’s going to be crazy. It’s going to be a lot of fun but it’s going to be tough for a lot of people. You are going to see some SEC teams that came into the season with National Championship aspirations that lose two games. They might still have a chance at the conference title but they are going to be pretty much out of the conversation in terms of the BCS title.

Then what separates the "haves" and the "have nots" in the SEC?

Talent. I was there for Meyer’s first three seasons covering them for the Tampa Tribune and to look at them now compared to when they won that title in 2006… it’s not really a comparison. They have these true freshmen projected third stringers that could start for several other SEC teams. It’s just disgusting the level of talent they have got now. And Alabama seems to be doing the same kind of thing. It’s going to be very difficult for everybody else because it’s getting to the point that Florida, Alabama and LSU are the only teams that can pull this off and consistently stockpile talent to this degree.

What has impressed you most about Alabama’s recruiting?

That Alabama has done it quickly, perhaps more quickly than anybody thought they could. The way they came in and locked down the state was simply impressive. It was kind of a perfect situation with the 2008 recruiting class when you had one of the best years for talent that they’ve had in a long time in Alabama and then you had Nick Saban really hitting his stride as a recruiter after laying the groundwork with the year prior. When that happened they really let people know they were a force to be reckoned with and then this year they went and were able to get everyone important they needed to get in the state of Alabama and then went out of state for a couple of key players with elite talent they wanted.

How far away is Alabama being recognized for what they’ve achieved in terms of building depth?

If Alabama wins ten games this year, it will be assumed from now on that everyone that comes up to fill in slots on the roster are the same quality or even better. The perception is just not at that point yet. When you have a team where the third string guys are just as keen on getting playing time… that’s how you build what USC has now, what Texas has now. Florida, I think, is finally getting there.

What‘s the most immediate benefit of this largesse?

People forget that what [the new recruits] do on the practice field is way more important for the team than what they may contribute directly in a game situation. When a player comes on board that could conceivably start in a given position, then even the most established player ahead of them in the roster has to go "Whoo, I better work a little bit harder."

And there are too many questions concerning Alabama's offense.

Coach Saban has said the key to being a successful program is to "become a nightmare for your opponent." So what monster would you say this year's Alabama team is most like?

I just saw a History Channel documentary on the Twelve Labors of Hercules and so the Hydra is what comes to mind. If you cut one of the heads off, two more will grow back. And that’s a lot like Alabama’s defense. They have a lot of ways to really get at you. With that defense… it’s going to be awful hard to score on them.

How so?

First of all, thanks to Terrence Cody - and Brandon Deaderick, as well - it’s really hard to run up the middle. And that right there is the basic component of most people’s offense. And when someone tries go to the outside they’ve got Don'ta Hightower is sitting there. And so then if they try to go deep, Javier Arenas is out there waiting. That’s tough.

What is the solution?

There really is not a lot you can do so at some point you simply have to try and physically overpower them up front. And Florida did that at the SEC Championship last year, but there just aren’t many teams that can pull it off. That’s why LSU is going to be a really fun matchup to watch because LSU may have the horses to make it work. But right now we really don’t know. The big advantage of the Utah game is they probably learned their lesson. It’s not likely someone is going to get the chance to jump out in front of them again like that this season.

RBR would like to thank Andy for the interview although we must chastise his parents for having the good sense to attend the University of Alabama and then ruin it by letting their son go to the University of Florida.

The 10 Surprises of the 2009 SEC Football Season

Jay Coulter — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 06:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Dave Martin - AP

Look for Gus Malzahn's offense to surprise in 2009. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

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The great thing about SEC football is the unexpected. We can spend hours in front of the computer and evenings reading publications; yet something always happens between September and January to surprise us. Last year it was the fall of Auburn and the sudden rise of Alabama. It was Ole Miss coming out of nowhere to set itself up as the media darling this season. It was Georgia failing to live up to expectations and LSU losing five games.

As we get ready to kickoff the 2009 season, the truth is, we really don't know what's going to happen. And that's what keeps all of us coming back. With that as a backdrop, I'll foolishly try to predict 10 things that will surely happen between early September and January. Feel free to throw these up in my face as the season progresses. I expect nothing less. Here goes...

Auburn pulls a big upset in the SEC. Who knows when or where, but Gus Malzahn's offense is too creative not to sneak up on someone. Plus, first year coaches almost always pull surprises. Look back to 1999 and Tommy Tuberville's surprise blowouts of LSU and Georgia. And let's not forget Terry Bowden's magical run in 1993.
Auburn loses to a team it shouldn't. See first bullet. With surprises comes disappointment - usually. A new coaching staff and new systems almost guarantees a stumble somewhere down the road. Rarely does a season go as predicted. This year is no different.
Tiger Athletic Director Jay Jacobs manages to tick off most of Auburn's fanbase at some point during the season. Rarely does Jacobs go more than a few months without alienating himself from everyone - see Chizik hiring and the Tailgate Guys.
Florida repeats as national champion. Not only is this the most talented SEC team in more than 10 years, the Gator's schedule sets up perfectly. Non-conference opponents include: Charleston Southern, Troy, Florida International and Florida State. A trip to Baton Rouge on October 10^th will likely be Florida's toughest test until the SEC Championship game.
Ole Miss loses three games. All fans have heard since January's Cotton Bowl is how loaded the Rebels will be in 2009. Sure they're playing with Steve Spurrier's favorite quarterback, Jevin Snead, but they are also without left tackle Michael Oher. And we all know how difficult it is to replace a tackle. Right Bama?
Speaking of Spurrier, the Ole Ball Coach finally throws in the towel at South Carolina. This year's team is his best ever, but no one notices because he plays in the SEC East.
Georgia's Mark Richt will be on the hot seat at year's end. They'll lose for the 17^th time in 20 tries against Florida; and Georgia Tech will claim two straight against its in-state big brother.
Lane Kiffin goes 7-5 in his first season in Knoxville. The Vols shake off their 49 point loss to Florida in early September to rebound and earn a trip to the Independence Bowl. In his final press conference of the season, Kiffin guarantees a 21 point victory over the Gators in 2010.
LSU surprises everyone and captures the SEC West. They lose to Florida by three touchdowns in the championship game in Atlanta. Purple Tiger fans demand Les Miles' resignation.
ESPN's Lee Corso ends his run on College Gameday. After suffering a stroke earlier this year, the old coach returns as good as always, but ultimately decides enough is enough. The show is never the same. Soak it all up one last time.

There you have it - my list of 2009 surprises. Will they all happen? Who knows - probably not, but you can bet something a lot stranger will happen by year's end. Right now we don't have a clue. And that's why SEC football is a lot like Christmas morning. Only 25 days and a wake up before Louisiana Tech. Get packing!

TLV #86 - Greg Hardy Edition

The Ghost of Jay Cutler — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 19:04:43 -0000

You know, like his jersey number? Fine, whatever, just click the jump.

You've been soaking it all in for the last few months now. Whether propagated by ESPN, your drinking buddies, or every body's favorite Ole Miss Rebel sports blog, you've become inundated with the idea that this upcoming Rebel football season could be one of the greatest ever. There's talk of finally making the trip to Atlanta for the SEC championship game, an SEC Title (ok maybe not so much), and a Heisman Trophy for Jevan Snead (slow down, dreamer).

And why not? These Rebels have talent all across the board, a coaching staff as competent as any we have had in Oxford in decades, and a very favorable schedule. Despite the best efforts of our Rebels' detractors, this is a damn good football team.

But, how good?

When people think of the greatest Rebel teams of recent memory, two should readily come to mind: this one, and the 2003 version of our Rebels. As most of you should recall--we understand if you don't--2003 saw a Rebel team led by Eli Manning fall a lousy three points short of a berth to a very winnable SEC Championship game. A few miscues throughout the season kept the 2003 Rebels from legitimately running the table. That was a good Rebel squad; there is no doubt about it. However, despite the high level of success achieved by Eli and company, they were not nearly as complete a squad as we will see on Saturdays this fall.

Yes, we are suggesting that the 2009 Rebels are better than the 2003 Rebels.

While difficult, if not impossible to prove before the season starts, let's do our best to objectively look the upstart 2003 Rebels and the talented 2009 Rebels position-by-position. Go:

Defensive Line: Strong Advantage 2009

By far the easiest assessment to make, the 2009 Rebel defensive line will go down as one of the most effective unit of angry-ass skull smashers to ever play ball in Oxford. The 2003 unit wasn't too bad, but they certainly weren't a strength of the team.

Linebackers: Slight Advantage 2009
The linebackers in 2003 left a lot to be desired in terms of speed. While Patrick Willis was technically on the team, he was having a year of eligibility thrown away on special teams in David Cutcliffe's seniority-based depth chart. Patrick Trahan, Allen Walker, and Jonathan Cornell form a solid unit, and there's a little more depth here than people think.

Secondary: Slight Advantage 2009

Texas Tech's BJ Symons passed for 661 yards against the 2003 Rebel secondary. That is the third highest passing total of any quarterback in any college football game EVER. While the 2009 secondary may be better--because it couldn't be worse--it's certainly not by much. It's funny to say this, considering how much Ole Miss fans despised him, but Von Hutchins was a good corner. He was just undercoached in a terrible, terrible defensive system.

Special Teams: Push
Johnathan Nichols, when not playing LSU, was perfect. Joshua Shene is the conference's best placekicker, but he still hasn't shown that he can be what Nichols was. What 2009's special teams may "lack" in kicking, it more than makes up for in athleticism and innovation. Remember, Special Teams Coordinator, James Shibest, won National ST Coordinator of the Year in 2008. He can scheme with the best of them.

Offensive Line: Strong Advantage 2003

Three of Eli Manning's five blockers are still playing ball in the NFL. Enough said. If the 2009 unit still somehow had Michael Oher, this would be a push.

Running Backs: Strong Advantage 2009

In 2008, the combination of Brandon Bolden, Cordera Eason, Dexter McCluster, and Enrique Davis was the 2nd most effective rushing attack in the SEC. The 2009 Rebels return every single one of them. In 2003, the Rebels struggled to find an identity when running the football, causing many once reasonable fans to urge Cutcliffe and Company to let Eli throw on every single down.

Wide receivers: Slight Advantage 2009

Yes, we know that we're all supposed to be good Rebels and fawn over Chris Collins, Mike Espy, and Bill Flowers. They were all good receivers, but imagine replacing two of those three with Shay Hodge and Dexter McCluster. Yeah, thought so.

Quarterbacks: Slight-to-Strong Advantage 2003

Well that was an easy choice. Jevan Snead is good; there is no doubt about that. He is big, strong-armed, and became a very good decision maker towards the end of last season. He has also shown great leadership abilities and proven to be fearless, even when facing superior competition. However, he's not a Manning. Eli Manning was the 2003 Rebels. Quick, without looking, how many other skill players from the 2003 Rebel squad were drafted into the NFL. If you answered zero, you're correct. Jevan Snead has already lost one of his offensive companions, speedy wide-receiver and overall badass Mike Wallace, to the 3rd round of last year's NFL draft, and will likely join a few others when he eventually makes that jump. Eli Manning was truly a once-in-a-generation type of player surrounded by an experienced roster of "pretty" goods and "alrights." Jevan Snead is a once-in-a-decade type player surrounded by several "goods" and a few "very goods." If these quarterbacks were to switch places, the 2003 Rebs would have ended up with an 8-5 record whereas the 2009 Rebs would be the preseason pick to win the SEC. I know it's a wild and crazy hypothetical, but what in the hell else are we supposed to be doing with nearly a month left in the offseason?

Wow. In looking back up at that, I never realized how truly woolly we Cuppers had become. Yeah, we're calling it: the 2009 Rebs are, when all positions are considered, better than the 7-1, Cotton Bowl Champion 2003 Rebs. Enjoy the rest of your summers while you can because, come September 6th, we will all be waist-deep in the throes of insane fandom. This season is sure to be one of the most interesting Oxford has ever seen and we are more than happy to share it with you.

The Blind Side as chick flick? Brilliant!

Joel — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 11:30:09 -0000

More photos » by ROGELIO V. SOLIS - AP

My wife and kids couldn't care less about the importance of the left tackle position. Unless someone can make their eyes sweat.

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The trailer for the movie based on Michael Lewis's book the Blind Side made its way around the college football blogosphere yesterday to less than rave reviews.

Mr. Irrelevant told readers to "prepare to be completely disgusted . . . ", while Dr. Saturday called it "a thinly veiled chick flick." Doug, filling in for Orson at EDSBS this week, has a complete list of offenses, including that "It's all about Sandra Bullock," and "We've got another white-woman-saves-poor-aimless-black-people story on our hands."

Most of this boils down to a disappointment that the trailer makes it look like the movie focuses too heavily on the human interest story and not enough on the finer points of the left tackle position from which the book gets its name. In short, too much chick-flick, not enough football.

I have a bit of a different take on that, though.

You see, I live in a house full of girls (even our two dogs are females), and I can't tell you how much time I've spent watching the seemingly never-ending series of Janette Oke "Love [something] [something]" movies on Hallmark.

So for my brethren in the sports blogosphere that are a decade or more behind me on the life and family curve, I say that the Blind Side postured as a chick flick is brilliant. I've been trying to get my girls to fall in love with football for 15 years, and every little bit helps. If they can have good feelings about football via an eye-sweating movie, perfect.

And anyway, there may be more football in there than you know. As danmarcel noted in yesterday's thread, "Trailers can be cut to emphasize almost anything." Case in point is this fantastic remix of the trailer for Stephen King's The Shining, which I find endlessly amusing:

So yeah, the trailer for the Blind Side may not be a fair representation of what the movie actually is, but even if it is, I'm all for it if it gets me out of yet another viewing of Anne of Green Gables. Although that Anne does have a wit.