SB Nation - Greg Hardy

Tyrone Nix to Florida?

The Ghost of Jay Cutler — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 23:38:56 -0000

With Charlie Strong now the head man at Louisville, Florida has a huge vacancy to fill at defensive coordinator.

Long-time Florida defensive coordinator Charlie Strong was named yesterday as the new head coach for the Louisville Cardinals. Today, signs are pointing to Urban Meyer and the Gators hiring Ole Miss Rebel defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix to take Strong's place.

From Chris Low:

It looks like Urban Meyer’s top choice to replace Charlie Strong as defensive coordinator is Ole Miss defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix, who’s already met with Meyer about the job. Nix has done an excellent job with the Rebels’ defense the past two seasons and could also be in the mix at Georgia.

Let's hope not. For all the grief short-memoried Rebel fans are willing to give Nix about our defensive performance in the Egg Bowl, Tyrone Nix has made our defense the strength of our team, something which hasn't been seen in Oxford in well over a decade. The Rebels were in the top half of the conference in every major defensive category aside from interceptions and opponents' 4th down conversions. The Rebels were even top-three in sacks (#2, one sack fewer than Florida's 35), opponents 3rd down conversions (30.7 percent, behind Florida's 30.2 and Alabama's 29.4), and red zone defense (72.5 percent opponents scoring rate, a bit lower than Alabama's 65.2).

Nix's defenses are aggressive, innovative with blitzes, and rely heavily on sound fundamentals. Even with a perpetually injured Greg Hardy, problematic linebacker corps, and razor thin secondary, the Rebel defense gave nearly every one of our opposing offenses fits.

Tyrone Nix, please stay. Houston Nutt, tell Pete Boone you're looking at the Cincy job and use whatever money you squeeze out of him to give Nix a raise. Pete Boone, for shit's sake have a contingency plan of some sorts. Urban Meyer is a ruthless bastard and will do what it takes to get what it wants. Hopefully we can nut up and take care of our own this time.

The Ten from the last Ten - Honorable Mentions, 10, and 9

The Ghost of Jay Cutler — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 19:53:26 -0000

In a few weeks, 2009 will give way to 2010 and, with that, awesomely tacky New Years Eve glasses and a relatively successful decade of Rebel football will become things of the past. With this, we at the Cup feel it appropriate to recap these last ten years with who we feel are the ten greatest football Rebels of this time span.

After a hearty round of email debate, the top four were more or less decided upon unanimously. But there was significant contention amongst the remaining selections. You're welcome, if not encouraged, to contend with our selections as well.

Today we'll have the honorable mentions along with numbers 10 and 9. We'll have 8-5 tomorrow and 4-1 either Friday evening or Saturday morning, we hope.

HONORABLE MENTIONS (no particular order)

Terrence Metcalf - OT - Left in 2002 - Metcalf was, along with Romaro Miller, part of one of the best Ole Miss signing classes ever. Coming off of probation, Ole Miss was able to ink both Metcalf and Miller--a par of Mississippians on the Parade All-American list--stealing them away from an aggressively recruiting Alabama Crimson Tide program. Metcalf anchored the Rebel line for many years, earning a reputation as an aggressive, strong blocker. He protected Eli's blind side during his record-setting sophomore year before going on to a good career with the Chicago Bears.

Romaro Miller - QB - 2000 - Romaro Miller is, statistically speaking, the best Rebel quarterback not named Manning. Sure, Kent Austin, John Darnell, Stewart Patridge, and even Jevan Snead have done great things in a Rebel uniform, but none were as exciting to watch as Miller.

Johnathan Nichols - K - 2003 - I know you won the Lou Groza award, but we still can't forgive you.

Derrick Burgess - DE - 2001 - A former first team All-SEC defensive end, Derrick Burgess is now in the throes of a successful NFL career which has seen him make two trips to the Pro Bowl.

Greg Hardy - DE - Still on roster - If it weren't for injuries, gr3gxxz could easily be in this list's top five. He will undoubtedly go down as one of the most entertaining Ole Miss Rebels ever, both on and off the field.

Chris Spencer - C - 2005 - An all-around good guy and a solid blocker, Spencer was picked up in the first round by the Seattle Seahawks where he is still starting at the offensive center position.

Chris Collins - WR - 2003 - Eli Manning's go-to guy, Collins was the record holder for receiving yards in a season up until just a few weeks ago when Shay Hodge overtook him.

Now, onto the real deal.

NUMBER TEN

BenJarvus Green-Ellis - RB - 2008
While he will be a relatively unsung hero in the lore of Ole Miss Rebel football, his place as one of our programs greatest runners will not be overlooked by the Cup. Green-Ellis is only the second Rebel to ever post back-to-back 1,000 yard rushing seasons. He was a workhorse back who favored lowering his shoulder and driving forward to juking or spinning in order to get an extra few yards. BJGE was named to the All-SEC first team by the Associated Press after his successful senior season. As it stands today, he is an oft-used reserve for the New England Patriots.

NUMBER NINE

Mike Wallace - WR - 2009 - As one of the fastest Ole Miss players ever, Mike Wallace was Jevan Snead's deep target during the last half of the 2008-9 season. Perhaps no Rebel has ever been able to stretch the field quite like Wallace, who is now arguably the best rookie wide receiver in the NFL as the third wideout for the Pittsburgh Steelers. During his final two years in Oxford, he was able to make the secondaries of Florida, LSU, Mississippi State, and Texas Tech look downright slow. He also performed well in kick return duties.

That's all for now.

A tip of the hat goes to Dr. Saturday for the inspiration and Thile via Twitter for the nudge.

Ole Miss Preview

Richard Pittman — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:40:09 -0000

More photos » by Butch Dill - AP

about 1 month ago: Mississippi receiver Dexter McCluster (22) breaks free for a 79-yard touchdown against Auburn during an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/ Butch Dill)

Browse more photos »

Last year, I was not a big fan of Dexter McCluster. I thought he was only so-so; that he fumbled in key situations; that he was predictable. I thought that Ole Miss's offense ran better when they let Jevan Snead do his thing. Not this year. If you were making up a list of offensive players of the year in the SEC, this list would not have to be very long to get to McCluster. Let's see. Ingram, McCluster, Green, Tate. Am I missing anyone? See, you don't have to go very far at all, and Jevan Snead is not on that list.

McCluster's last 3 games in which he played any appreciable time (he mostly sat out two weeks ago against Northern Arizona), he has rushed for 123, 186, 282. He has received for 137, 17, and 42. He's scored 6 touchdowns in that time.

Meanwhile, Jevan Snead, who was one of the Big 3 quarterbacks in the conference before the season started, is not in the top 10 in the conference in passer rating.

To be honest, we don't really match up very well against this Ole Miss team. We struggled last week to catch and tackle small, shifty running backs, and McCluster is the smallest, shiftiest around. Jevan Snead can be taken off his game with a strong pass rush, but we don't really bring a strong pass rush very often. I wish I could say more, but that's about it.

Jevan Snead's favorite target is Shay Hodge, who I think is a terrific player. He's had three 100-yard receiving games this year. He's not a speedster, but he gets open and catches everything. I don't know if he's the kind of receiver who will get the dreaded Peterson Shadow, but maybe he should.

Defensively, Ole Miss is a surprisingly good team, 4th in scoring defense, 5th in total defense, 3rd in passing efficiency defense, 3rd in sacks, 3rd in 1st downs against, 1st in 3rd down defense. They do it with a defensive line that gets after it, though they are now missing Greg Hardy who is their best defensive player, though he's been limited for weeks before he was finally finished for the year. They've mostly done it without Greg Hardy all year. Jerrell Powe and Kentrell Lockett headline this group, and they can both play.

The key is that our defense will have to step up and defend against McCluster. If we can keep Dexter McCluster from running all over the place, we will have a very good chance of winning. If we can get a pass rush on Snead, we can take him out of his rhythm. Expect to see a lot of blitzing on passing downs, but blitzing is dangerous with McCluster back there. They could very well give him the ball on 3rd and 8, and if there is a blitz, he could be gone upon getting through the first level.

On offense, we will have to stay out of 3rd and long situations. Ole Miss is a very good 3rd down team, and their defensive line can bring a lot of pressure. I would mix a lot of run and pass on 1st and 2nd downs, trying to be unpredictable but at the same time having a logic to the plan that is often lacking in our offense. Our offensive line has been a lot better of late, and we will need that to continue, so we can avoid negative plays.

I will really be looking to see if we can ramp up the intensity level, or if the La Tech game was a sign of things to come. Really, I expect us to come out a lot stronger this game than we did last week.

This is an abbreviated preview today, because time is an issue for me this morning. I'll be back with more later.

Q&A with Red Cup Rebellion

Joel — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 13:00:44 -0000

Apart from yesterday's nastiness (not their fault -- we don't think), we've had a very good week with our friends at SB Nation Ole Miss blog Red Cup Rebellion. On Monday, we had The Ghost of Jay Cutler on our podcast:

. . . and on Wednesday, they had Will on their podcast:

. . . and today, we are exchanging Q&As with them. Their answers to our questions are below, and ours to theirs are over at their place.

And so . . .

RTT: From our perspective way over here, the two main knocks against Houston Nutt as a head coach are (a) that his teams seem to succeed when they're not expected to do well but fail when they are and (b) that Nutt is a certifiable quarterback-killer. Vol fans know from experience that memes that go national rarely tell the whole story. So what's the rest of the story on those two criticisms of Nutt? Are they valid or not?

Red Cup Rebellion: Well, we’ve learned the hard way this season that even memes that go national are occasionally right. Team Speed Kills did a story before the season began about how Houston Nutt does in fact live up to expectations. They used fancy schmancy mathematics and tables. Suffice it to say that until this season, the only expectations Houston Nutt didn’t live up to were those that were only held by the fans (delusional Arkansans at that). However, this season is different.

This season, everyone and their mama thought the Rebels would play well. I mean, we returned a "dark horse Heisman candidate" at quarterback (that’s so funny to type now). Also, our stable of halfbacks was supposed to be great. Turns out that both of those things may or may not be true. We have no idea because our offensive line is so bad. They don’t give Jevan time, and they don’t open holes for Brandon Bolden.

So in answer to part A, I would say that, while this season fits the mold quite well, it is the first season Nutt has ever had that did so. To say that he doesn’t live up to expectations because one season out of eleven in the SEC didn’t is nonsense.

In answer to part B, see the second paragraph of this answer. Jevan certainly isn’t helping himself out much, but I’m not sure it’s Houston Nutt’s fault that Ed Orgeron signed only 4 players who would ever start on the offensive line. Jevan doesn’t have any protection, and he’s not the type of quarterback who can succeed in that situation. He makes poor decisions when pressured, and we’re seeing that week-in and week-out this season.

In further answer to B, which quarterbacks has Houston killed exactly? Clint Stoerner flourished under him. Matt Jones wasn’t a real quarterback. Casey Dick shouldn’t have been starting in the SEC. I don’t know a ton about Arkansas football, but I’ve missed the examples of quarterbacks who actually regressed under Nutt.

So in reality, Houston Nutt is actually just bad at recruiting good QBs. Quarterbacks used to illustrate this by Arkansas fans are Tarvaris Jackson and Kodi Burns. Yeah. Those guys are tearing it up these days. I mean, my goodness, Tarvaris Jackson threw for nearly 2,700 yards as a senior at Arkansas State… in the Sun Belt…

RTT: Y'all haven't had a week off since after your very first game. Are there any injuries or depth or fatigue issues we should know about?

Red Cup Rebellion: It’s a good thing I waited until today to answer this. My answer was going to be just a flat out no, which would have been no fun.

Then yesterday happened, and our best pass rusher is done for the year after having wrist surgery. Yeah. Greg Hardy. You may have heard of him.

The loss of Hardy is absolutely devastating to our team. He has been in and out of injury trouble during his career at Ole Miss, but he was playing this season relatively injury free and giving 100% on every play, something that had been a knock against him in years past. Hardy is our most technically sound defensive end, and he weighs 270 pounds. Oh, he’s also really fast.

Losing Hardy doesn’t mean all hope is lost in pressuring the quarterback. Junior DE Kentrell Lockett was actually starting over Greg and leads the team in sacks and tackles for loss, but Hardy is incredible at getting after the passer, and he will be missed.

Other than that, we’re doing fine. It seems like our coaches are pretty good at recognizing when our players need some rest. We don’t generally have fatigue issues (other than our offensive linemen who seem to have spent the entire summer sitting in a la-z-boy recliner eating Doritos.)

RTT: Just looking at the numbers, we made the following conclusions earlier this week:

a) Against common opponents, Tennessee has fared better than Ole Miss. We beat Memphis worse and played Alabama and Auburn better. The Rebels' best victory this season came against Arkansas. We got ours against South Carolina, a team to which Ole Miss lost.

b) Much like Tennessee (discounting the recent trend), Ole Miss is middle-of-the-pack on offense but very good on defense. They're especially good at pressuring the QB and stopping plays before they can get across the line of scrimmage.

c) The keys to the game for Tennessee will be winning the line of scrimmage on offense and balancing the defense to stop McCluster's big-play ability and Snead's potential as a good passer.

Agree? Disagree? And what of Jesse Grandy's two kickoff returns for touchdowns? Has he used up his quota for the season or is he always a threat to break one?

Red Cup Rebellion: a) Yeah. Your victories are certainly better than ours. Our best win came against an Arkansas team whose receivers had butter on their hands, and we still didn’t approach the 20 point win that was possible. Did I mention that Arkansas has a losing SEC record? Your signature win is against a South Carolina team that absolutely destroyed us. Disconcerting to say the least.

b) Yeah. That’s the name of our game. Pressure the quarterback and try to put the defense into third and long situations. On offense, the team goes about scoring touchdowns in a risky manner, while the fans just ask them to not lose the game for the defense.

c) If Tennessee’s offensive line can consistently beat out our defensive big guys, Tennessee will roll with this one. Our linebackers and secondary aren’t awful, but they’re not of the same caliber as our front four. One linebacker to keep an eye out for though is Allen Walker. Most of our fans haven’t noticed, but he has made some awesome plays this season. If anyone in our back seven is a threat to get into the backfield in a non pass-rushing situation, it’s Walker.

d) Well, there’s really no question D, but that question about Grandy is just kind of stuck in there. Here’s my answer to that: in three games as a kick returner, the freshman has two kickoffs returned for touchdowns. He’s a danger because of his flat-speed. We have trouble getting him the ball in a lot of situations on offense since he’s not a polished receiver, but on kickoffs, we don’t have to worry about that. I’m not sure that Ole Miss has ever had a player who returned three kickoffs for touchdowns in the same season, but I woudn’t put it past Grandy. He’s dynamite. Now if only he could gain about six inches of height and twenty pounds while still maintaining his speed…

RTT: Is there a common thread in the Rebels' three losses? You know, besides the Ls.

Red Cup Rebellion: Yes. The offensive line has struggled in pass protection against all the teams against which we have lost…. or won. Honestly, it’s just about whether Jevan is able to compensate for the offensive line and whether our defense is able to hold the opposing offense relatively in check. We have been a bend but don’t break defense all year, but we’ve broken a few times in the losses, and our offense simply isn’t good enough to make up for that. Also, as good as the defense is, they never ever force turnovers. It’s really frustrating.

The only reason the Alabama game wasn’t even more of a blowout is that our defense only allowed one touchdown while forcing Bama to kick five field goals. If only a few of those Bama drives had ended in seven points instead of three, people would have had their heads hung a great deal more.

RTT: Stealing yours: What's your prediction for Saturday's game? Give a predicted score and talk about the way it will shake out.

Red Cup Rebellion: Well, there are really three options here.

Option one, Tennessee blows Ole Miss out. A 20 point win is possible considering the matchup difficulties. If we have trouble stopping the draws and misdirections against Hardesty and Brown, we’re in for a long day. I have total confidence that Monte Kiffin will give us fits, so our defense has to carry the game for us. If they are unable to do so, we’re going to get hurt, badly. This can’t happen. If it does, our season is over.

Option two, Ole Miss wins a close one against Tennessee. Hell, we’re favored by five points right now. Apparently there’s something that bettors see that gives them reason to bet on Ole Miss winning this one. I could see it happening. The recipe for success against Tennessee is going to be capitalizing off of any mistakes the offense makes and keeping the ball in the hands of our halfbacks. Sure, Jevan will need to make some plays, but if we can continue to ride on the back of Dexter McCluster, we might be able to win this one.

Option three, Tennessee wins a close one against Ole Miss. Unfortunately for the Rebels, I’m afraid this is the answer. Our defense will probably play pretty well for the first three quarters and then get fed up with our offense, opening the floodgates and allowing a very close game to end up with a 7-10 point win. When this happens, our fans will be saddened, but they may not completely lose hope for the season.

So that’s it. Tennessee 24 – Ole Miss 14.

We can live with that. Thanks, guys. Be sure to keep your eye on Red Cup Rebellion all throughout the day for more on their perspective on tomorrow's game.

Rumblings Draft Scouting: Five prospects worth discussing

Brian Galliford — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 13:31:00 -0000

More photos » by Rogelio V. Solis - AP

Browse more photos »

Even if you're one of our readers that can't stand this type of feature when the Buffalo Bills are still playing meaningful football - yes, I know you exist - I'm guessing that you're, at a minimum, aware of some of the big names floating around in early 2010 NFL Draft talks. We've discussed the quarterbacks frequently. Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy, elite DT prospects from Nebraska and Oklahoma, respectively, make Bills fans drool. So do elite offensive tackle names like Russell Okung and Bryan Bulaga.

We even have a relatively good idea what positions the Bills will be looking to address next off-season. Quarterback will probably be the top priority, clearly. The offensive line needs work. The defensive line needs further youthful reinforcements, and the linebacker position has been exposed as a weakness thanks to injuries and below-average play. With those big names and these perceived needs in mind, there are some big-name prospects that deserve to be discussed in Bills-related draft talks - even if you think those are premature. We've got five such names for you this morning.

Greg Hardy, DE, Mississippi. Most of you have heard of this guy. He might have been a first-round pick had he entered the '09 Draft, as scouts love his size (6'4", 265 pounds) and production (26 career sacks, including 10 as a sophomore and 8 as a junior). He does, however, carry some injury risk, as he's had more than a few minor injuries slow him down during his career, including at the beginning of his senior season. Some scouts have questioned his work ethic and motivation, as well. Still, if you're looking for a 4-3 end that can defend the run and get after the passer, Hardy looks to be the best option this season, and you'll certainly do much, much worse in the talent department.

Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri. There are bigger names at linebacker - Alabama's Rolando McClain and Florida's Brandon Spikes, for example - but Weatherspoon should be mentioned in the same breath far more frequently than he is. At 6'2", 245 pounds, Weatherspoon possesses the athleticism and coverage skill to play the weak side in a Cover 2, where athleticism is at a premium. He can also play SAM, though he's much better in space than he is taking on blockers and shedding. Weatherspoon has had a highly productive career, accumulating 368 tackles, three forced fumbles, four interceptions, 11 sacks and two defensive scores in the Big 12. He's a lock as a first-round pick, and while Buffalo's likely Top-12 pick would probably be too high for a player like Weatherspoon, he'll end up being one of the safer investments come draft day 2010.

Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers. Given the way he's played in his junior season and his talent level, Davis seems like a virtual lock to leave Rutgers early - though it wouldn't surprise many if he stayed. As it stands right now, he's a high-end first round pick, and as he's answered questions about his ability to pass protect this season, he may end up challenging players like Okung, Bulaga and Bruce Campbell to be the first tackle taken. In terms of being NFL-ready, Davis' body is clearly the closest, as his 6'6", 325-pound frame should let him perform well in the run game, something most of this year's left tackle crop may struggle with. He's not the best athlete you'll find, but he's a sound technician, and he's long and athletic enough to control the edge on the left side. Strong bowl performances should skyrocket this guy's name to prominence, and he might end up being a Top 15 pick.

Charles Brown, OT, USC. This senior is one of the most athletically gifted offensive linemen in all of college football. He's not a very big guy yet (6'6", 285 pounds) and needs to bulk up, but he's got the frame to do it. He possesses elite footwork - almost in the same class as the aforementioned Okung - and he gets to the second level with ease while run blocking. He's by no means a mauler, and until he bulks up and improves his strength, NFL defensive linemen will be able to control him at the point of attack. But Brown will go higher than most expect him to, because he's got the look and feel of a potentially elite left tackle - and right now, those are at a premium in April.

Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State. Folks might look at Odrick's measurables (6'5", 306 pounds) and put him in the class of a Kyle Williams - one of those players that's good in a rotation, but can't really anchor a defense. He might not be an elite talent, but Odrick is establishing himself as a first-round caliber talent. He's not a massive run-stopper, but he's got a tremendously strong lower body and plays with outstanding leverage, allowing him to control his blocker on the majority of snaps. He also has that quick-twitch muscle that allows him to split blockers and control gaps, which is clearly a must-have skill in Buffalo's defensive system. Even more impressive, he's flashed the ability, game in and game out, to make big plays; he's currently enjoying an outstanding senior season in which he's picked up 36 tackles and six sacks. He's a versatile player, so plenty of teams - including teams in need of 3-4 ends - will be looking at this guy. He can play.

Tennessee Volunteers at Ole Miss Rebels: game preview

Joel — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:27:49 -0000

A weekly look at our upcoming opponent's recent history, with animated drive charts and links to SB Nation game pages.

This is a long post full of moving pictures and stats, so I'm putting the conclusions and predictions both at the beginning and at the end.

Conclusions

Against common opponents, Tennessee has fared better than Ole Miss. We beat Memphis worse and played Alabama and Auburn better. The Rebels' best victory this season came against Arkansas. We got ours against South Carolina, a team to which Ole Miss lost.
Much like Tennessee (discounting the recent trend), Ole Miss is middle-of-the-pack on offense but very good on defense. They're especially good at pressuring the QB and stopping plays before they can get across the line of scrimmage.
The keys to the game for Tennessee will be winning the line of scrimmage on offense and balancing the defense to stop McCluster's big-play ability and Snead's potential as a good passer.

Predictions

Tennessee 13, Ole Miss 12

Schedule and Animated Drive Charts


@ Memphis Tigers	9/6/09	win 45 - 14
SE Louisiana Lions	9/19/09	win 52 - 6
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	9/24/09	loss 10 - 16
@ Vanderbilt Commodores	10/3/09	win 23 - 7
Alabama Crimson Tide	10/10/09	loss 3 - 22
UAB Blazers	10/17/09	win 48 - 13
Arkansas Razorbacks	10/24/09	win 30 - 17
@ Auburn Tigers	10/31/09	loss 20 - 33
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	11/7/09	win 38 - 14

Rather than post all of the Rebels' drive charts, I decided to compare those of Ole Miss and Tennessee against common opponents. Up first is Memphis. Both games were blowouts, but ours was front-loaded (which is better, right?) and more blowout-y:

FULL SCREEN VERSION

They lost to South Carolina, and we dominated, although we were pretty fortunate with the turnovers:

FULL SCREEN VERSION

Both teams played fairly well in losses to Alabama and mostly kept the Tide out of the end zone (although the Rebels' let 'em have one). Ole Miss, though, threw four interceptions to our one, and the Tide pulled away from the Rebs at the end but the Vols pulled closer:

FULL SCREEN VERSION

Both teams lost to Auburn, but we both held the Tigers to fewer points and scored more:

FULL SCREEN VERSION

National Unit Rankings

Now on to the national rankings.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS
Category	National Rank	Actual	National Leader	Actual	Conf Rank	Southeastern Conference Leader	Actual
Rushing Offense	40	172.44	Nevada	319.13	6	Florida	240.67
Passing Offense	57	223.56	Houston	433.67	4	Arkansas	299.44
Total Offense	51	396.00	Houston	577.89	6	Auburn	450.30
Scoring Offense	38	29.89	Houston	42.11	6	Arkansas	35.56
Passing Efficiency	72	126.00	Cincinnati	171.84	9	Florida	159.46
Sacks Allowed	T-34	1.33	La.-Lafayette	.44	5	Alabama	1.00

Offensive observations. Smack dab in the middle of the pack in the SEC and slightly above average nationally in every offensive category except passing efficiency, where they're in the bottom quarter.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS
Category	National Rank	Actual	National Leader	Actual	Conf Rank	Southeastern Conference Leader	Actual
Rushing Defense	58	136.44	Texas	55.33	7	Alabama	68.22
Pass Efficiency Defense	14	100.02	Florida	85.86	3	Florida	85.86
Total Defense	25	317.22	Texas	230.78	6	Florida	232.44
Scoring Defense	12	15.78	Florida	10.11	4	Florida	10.11
Pass Defense	23	180.78	Air Force	127.20	7	Florida	134.44
Sacks	16	2.78	Pittsburgh	4.33	2	Alabama	2.89
Tackles For Loss	26	7.00	Cincinnati	8.89	2	Alabama	7.33

Defensive observations. Sort of all over the board here. Extremely good at disrupting the opponent's backfield and pass effficiency defense, good at keeping points off the board, and average (in the SEC, anyway) in rush, pass, and total defense. Their primary vulnerability appears to be against the run.

SPECIAL TEAMS AND TURNOVERS RANKINGS
Category	National Rank	Actual	National Leader	Actual	Conf Rank	Southeastern Conference Leader	Actual
Net Punting	62	35.74	Georgia	43.95	5	Georgia	43.95
Punt Returns	58	9.37	Arizona	19.00	6	LSU	17.32
Kickoff Returns	16	24.97	Stanford	32.06	3	Florida	26.48
Turnover Margin	102	-.78	Rutgers	2.25	11	Arkansas	1.00

Special teams and turnovers observations. Bell curve here. Really good at kickoff returns (uh-oh), okay at punting and returning punts, and really bad in turnover margin.

Stastical Comparison

Here's how the two teams stack up against each other in each of the key statistical categories in Hooper's wizbang BlogPoll Computerer:

Rank	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	OPPG	TO	3DD
27		51	32	16	39	70	16	35	26	47	16
33		31	59	14	58	66	25	72	12	51	2

Against a much more difficult schedule, the Vols are roughly evenly matched against Ole Miss. Where they're ranked higher than Tennessee, though, it's fairly close, but where Tennessee is ranked higher, the difference is generally more pronounced.

Players to watch for

Category	Player	National Rank	Actual
Rushing	Brandon Bolden	95	58.11
	Dexter McCluster		52.56
Passing Efficiency (Min. 15 Att./Game)	Jevan Snead	73	123.84
Total Offense	Jevan Snead	58	216.56
	Brandon Bolden		58.11
	Dexter McCluster		52.56
Receptions Per Game	Shay Hodge	T-55	5.00
	Dexter McCluster		3.00
Receiving Yards Per Game	Shay Hodge	31	81.44
	Dexter McCluster		39.11
Interceptions
Punting (Min. 3.6 Punts/Game)	Tyler Campbell	18	43.80
Punt Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)	Marshay Green	36	8.82
Kickoff Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)	Jesse Grandy	11	30.06
Field Goals	Joshua Shene	T-65	1.00
Scoring	Joshua Shene		6.33
	Shay Hodge		4.00
All-Purpose Runners	Brandon Bolden		97.00
	Dexter McCluster		94.78
	Shay Hodge		81.44
	Jesse Grandy		74.25
Sacks	Greg Hardy	T-51	.62
	Kentrell Lockett		.44
	Patrick Trahan		.44
Tackles	Kendrick Lewis		6.33
	Johnny Brown		6.22
Tackles For Loss	Jerrell Powe	T-77	1.00
	Greg Hardy		.81
	Kentrell Lockett		.67
	Patrick Trahan		.67

Observations

Running backs. Dexter McCluster is not ranked nationally in any statistical category, but he's everywhere doing everything. Apart from McCluster, it appears that they have a bunch of good runners, but no spectacular ones. Brandon Bolden is the most productive of the bunch.

Quarterbacks. For as much preseason hype as he got, Jevan Snead's numbers this season haven't been anything special. He's solid, and he can go off at any time, but he can also completely tank at any given time.

Receivers/Tight Ends. Shay Hodge is the team's go-to receiver with 5 catches and 81.44 yards per game. Oh, look. Next is McCluster.

Defense. Look at all of those guys making noise in the backfield. Led by Greg Hardy and Jerrell Powe, they're quite good at pressuring the quarterback and stopping running plays before they get to the line of scrimmage. Hardy's getting .62 sacks and .81 TFLs per game. Powe's getting a sack per game. Kentrell Lockett and Patrick Trahan round out the aggressive group.

Special teams. Jesse Grandy is a dangerous kickoff returner, averaging over 30 yards per return. He's returned two for touchdowns this season, one against UAB and one against Auburn.

Head to Head Comparisons

			Best Comparable	Result Against Best Comparable	Prediction
UT rush v. Ole Miss rush defense	168.22 (#46)	136.44 (#58)	South Carolina (145.60)	199	190
UT pass v. Ole Miss pass defense	232.22 (#45)	180.78 (#23)	Alabama (174)	265	240
Ole Miss rush v. UT rush defense	119 (#39)	172.44 (#40)	WKU (175)	34	100
Ole Miss pass v. UT pass defense	176.11 (#20)	223.56 (#57)	UCLA (222.44)	101	120
UT scoring offense v. Ole Miss scoring defense	32.11 (#23)	15.78 (#12)	Alabama (11.78)	10	13
Ole Miss scoring offense v. UT scoring defense	18.89 (#26)	29.89 (#38)	Alabama (30.89)	12	12

Again, not math, but informed guess. I doubt we'll have as much success against their running game as we did against WKU's, what with ladies man McCluster back there running all over the place and us working on our third starting middle linebacker of the season. I also took trends into account in bumping up the prediction for Tennessee's points. 13 may actually be conservative with how this team has shown it can move the ball in the last few games. But the most concerning thing about the above chart is that Alabama pops up as the best comparable in half the categories.

Prediction? More yards for Tennessee, but a close, relatively low-scoring game. Like the 'Bama game but without Terrence Cody?

Conclusions

Against common opponents, Tennessee has fared better than Ole Miss. We beat Memphis worse and played Alabama and Auburn better. The Rebels' best victory this season came against Arkansas. We got ours against South Carolina, a team to which Ole Miss lost.
Much like Tennessee (discounting the recent trend), Ole Miss is middle-of-the-pack on offense but very good on defense. They're especially good at pressuring the QB and stopping plays before they can get across the line of scrimmage.
The keys to the game for Tennessee will be winning the line of scrimmage on offense and balancing the defense to stop McCluster's big-play ability and Snead's potential as a good passer.

Predictions

Tennessee 13, Ole Miss 12

Tigers Hold On Against the Rebels!

Acid Reign — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 03:33:37 -0000

(Head Coach Gene Chizik never shows emotion!)

War Eagle, everybody! It's the first happy football weekend for the Tigers, out of the last four! It's time now for the Acid Reign Report, on Auburn's miraculous 33-20 win over the University of Mississippi Rebels. Auburn faced a mismatch on paper in nearly every phase of this game coming in, but managed to emerge victorious by double digits! Both teams made plenty of mistakes, but Ole Miss made more. Auburn got a few fortuitous bounces, and took good advantage. Both teams had penalties, and for the first time in weeks, it was fairly even on both teams.

The Auburn defense was facing a tall order against the talented Rebel offense, and were gashed to the tune of 394 total yards. Dexter McCluster, who Auburn absolutely HAD to stop, finished with 207 total yards. McCluster paid for it in blood, though. Auburn defenders lowered the boom when they could, pounding the diminutive Rebel speedster. McCluster had to leave briefly in the second half, but came back valiantly late. Auburn made a serious effort with stunts and a few blitzes, and delivered enough hits to shake Rebel quarterback Jevan Snead off his game. Some of it was schemed but mostly, the Auburn defensive line and linebackers rose up, and beat on a young Ole Miss offensive line. Snead was limited to 16 completions on 35 attempts, with two picks by Walter McFadden, 175 yards, and one touchdown. That's a 2.1 net yards per pass average. Coverage by the secondary improved enormously, but the guys dropped nearly a half dozen possible interceptions. On the most difficult interception attempt, Walter McFadden made the play. On a ball that nearly hit the turf, and bounced off the straining hands of the Rebel receiver, McFadden snagged the carom one-handed, heels just over the boundary, and sprinted to a pick-six-touchdown! (How's that for a comma-splice?) Auburn gave up yards in chunks, including a 79 yard McCluster run. In the end, Auburn was able to turn the Rebels back every time in the 4^th quarter, holding Ole Miss scoreless to preserve the victory.

Special teams continued to run hot and cold. Clinton Durst hit great punt after great punt, till a shaky 33 yarder late. Chris Todd nailed the pooch punt of the year, coffin-cornering it out of bounds at the Rebel 1 yard line. Phillip Pierre-Louis didn't fumble a punt, but he let one go that was downed at the one, and danced like a man possessed on two others, netting only one yard with plenty of room. I fully expect that he will treat us to a Michael Jackson moonwalk, against Furman. Seriously, PPL, break it forward, please? Kick returns were decent, but kickoff net CONTINUES to be horrible. With the first return given up for a touchdown on the season, the kickoff team managed only a 33.8 yard net, even with Morgan Hull averaging kicking it to the 8 yard line. Wes Byrum continued his excellent ways, hitting on 4 extra points and a field goal. Byrum outkicked Ole Miss kicker Joshua Shene, who came into the game perfect on the year. Shene pushed a 44 yard field goal wide, and kicked an extra point into the line, which Auburn's Demond Washington scooped up and raced in for two points.

Auburn needed to stretch the field on offense. Everyone in the stadium held their breath on repeated tosses downfield, often into double coverage. Todd let it go downfield a bunch, and ended up with a great net yards per pass average, 9.6. Darvin Adams got open and made 4 clutch catches, and Terrell Zachary made a couple of GREAT ones! Tommy Trott had a terrible drop, and a magnificent TD on a ball slung up for the corner by Kodi Burns, off his back foot, being pressured. The Rebels were looking for Mario Fannin and Terrell Zachary on the reverse, but were hurt twice by freshman Travante Stallworth on that play. Ben Tate continued his outstanding play running the ball, powering for 148 rushing yards and a 53-yard back-breaking touchdown. The Tiger offense out-gained Ole Miss, 400 yards to 394. The Ole Miss defense's previous high given up for the season was 354, against Alabama.

Unit Grades, after the jump!

Defensive Line: B+. It was hardly a perfect game up front, especially given that the team gave up 394 yards. Still, there was some good pressure at times on Ole Miss, and eight tackles for loss. Auburn has been able to rotate six or seven up front all year, and it's going to help us going into Amen Corner.

Linebackers: B-. It was feast or famine in the linebacker corps. Sometimes we filled holes and blasted the runner, and sometimes we got pinned inside and burned. The swing pass to backs was KILLING the linebackers early, but adjustments were made well. A number of McCluster runs bounced off linebackers and gained a ton more yardage. Eltoro Freeman was again a force up front. He's very young , and when he gets out of position, it's ugly. It's the second week in a row that the young star has given up a 60+ yard TD run. Still, Freeman led the team in tackles, and was an inspiration. When he actually knows the defense well, he'll be really scary! The stat guys totally missed it, but Adam Herring got a few snaps, and made a huge tip on a pass when Ole Miss was in the red zone.

Secondary: B. This was a night and day improvement by this unit. Coverage was too soft early on, but as Snead started feeling pressure, the corners were able to crash the outs and hitches aggressively. When Zach Etheridge went out early, I was REALLY worried about the safeties. We lost a bit in tackling ability without Zach, but I think Mike Slade brought more speed to the equation. Ole Miss wasn't able to get it done downfield, even with that situation. T'Sharvan Bell and Demond Washington acquitted themselves well, and Neiko Thorpe made some plays. If this group continues to improve, they'll do well against Georgia and Bama.

Punting: B+. Durst hit some monster shots, but might have out-kicked his coverage some. The last kick, when we need to play for field position, was pretty poor. Durst averaged 42 yards on his six punts, but Marshay Green returned 3 of them, for 43 yards. The 29 yard Green return in the third quarter (the longest given up on the season) could have been costly, but Ole Miss fumbled it back on the Auburn 24. A net of 34.7 is a bit down, for us. I can't say enough about Chris Todd's pooch punt that went out of bounds at the one. That was a thing of beauty!

Punt Returns: D. No turnovers is an improvement. The dance moves, with room and blocking, were not. Phillip Pierre-Louis is a rookie at this gig, and I'm not suggesting we replace him. He just needs more coaching. When he learns to step fearlessly into the catch, and heads a few straight up field at a 45 degree angle or less, it will scare coverage teams to death. He's got some great (dreaded buzzword!) potential!

Kick Returns: B. This was a surprisingly solid effort. Ole Miss popped 'em up to about the 12 yard line, and Auburn returners Demond Washington and Phillip Pierre-Louis made 'em pay on field position, averaging 27 yards per return. That set us up on 3 returns outside the 35 yard line. That's pretty sweet, if we can keep that up!

Kickoffs: D-. Well, we tried kicking them deep this week, but Morgan Hull was not consistent. He managed two into the end zone, but 4 others were short. Auburn had a TREMENDOUS hit on the first return, causing a fumble that Auburn could not corral. Despite the negative on that play, Ole Miss averaged 30 yards per return, with one broken for a touchdown to pull Ole Miss within 11. Auburn did improve from a 26.0 yard net a week ago, to 33.8. I'll give a pass, this week.

Placekicking A+. Maybe I should count off on the 36-yard Byrum field goal that SHAVED juuuuusst inside the upright, but it counts 3 points, just the same. Byrum was perfect again. Foot Lauderdale has hit all 34 of his extra points, and is 13 of 14 on field goals. The only miss was from outside 40 yards. Magnificent, Sir Byrum, absolutely magnificent!

Offensive Line: B- This was a so-so performance, at best,but a winner nonetheless! Ole Miss has a great line, and depth. Auburn helped out on the scheme, giving the line help with several max-protect packages on the deep balls. Our tackles had maybe the worst day of the year trying to handle Greg Hardy and Kentrell Lockett off the edge. In this game, on 3^rd and +7, it was probably better to just run a draw. It would have saved Chris Todd some hits! Still, the Ole Miss ends had only 8 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks. We lost the guard/center gap a couple of times, letting Jerrell Powe roar inside for tackles in the backfield. On a D-line that had Jerrell Powe, Lawson Scott, Kentrell Lockett, and Greg Hardy, Ole Miss only produced 9 tackles. No holding penalties for the line, and only one false start on Mike Berry. And of course, one delay of game on an early snap, courtesy of indecision by Roger's Redding's Buffoons.

Receivers: B. After the catch drought the past three weeks, one HAS to love 7 catches for 117 yards and 2 touchdowns from the starters. Travante Stallworth ran two key reverses for first downs, and Kodi Burns was actually used as a receiver on a nice motion in, reverse out catch for 8 tough yards. There were some bruising blocks downfield, too. Some of the best plays downfield weren't catches, but rather swat-downs by Terrell Zachary on deep balls he wasn't going to be able to catch. Todd chunked it deep for Zachary multiple times, and Zachary did a good job of protecting his QB on those. Tommy Trott had a BAD drop on one pass, but made up for it with a NICE over the shoulder catch on a Burns loft in the end zone.

Running Backs: B. There was some hit and miss on blitz pickup, but enough success to allow Todd to set up to go deep multiple times. There was some good screen offense early, from Mario Fannin and Eric Smith. Ben Tate does some awesome running in traffic. His 148 yards on the day gave him 1067 yards in nine games. He's on pace to finish the regular season with 1422 yards, which would be the third best rushing season in Auburn history, behind only Bo Jackson and Rudi Johnson. Ben's rapidly approaching some rarefied air, around these parts!

Quarterback: C+. Super improvement from the past couple of weeks, but there was some shaky play as well. First off, the Wildcat was pretty much totally useless, except for Kodi's beautiful heave for a TD. Neither Burns throw was proper form AT ALL, but the one we needed got there for six. Rushing out of the Wildcat was snuffed, as nine or ten Ole Miss defenders attacked the line when they recognized Burns in the shotgun. Todd made some big throws, but it was scary. There were two deep throws where Terrell Zachary really made him look good, and a coverage bust that allowed Darvin Adams free for a TD. Todd made an absolutely awful decision late, giving up a 20 yard sack-fumble when we were trying to run the clock down. Luckily, two negative plays, a hold and a sack forced Ole Miss to punt for a touchback. Is Todd's arm OK? At times, he overthrows, at times he bounces it. Against a scary front and linebacking corps, Todd did OK, except for the fumble.

Auburn came up with a great win today! I didn't hold out much hope after the LSU effort, but these Tigers don't quit! We needed to go downfield on offense, play hard against Dexter McCluster, and rattle Jevan Snead. Auburn accomplished all three things, and came up with a win a little bigger than I predicted back in July. No, Ole Miss fans, we didn't score 34 like I thought we would, but we'll take 33!

The win over Ole Miss makes Auburn bowl-eligible at 6-3, and gives the team a great lift going into Homecoming against Furman. If Auburn can continue the improving play in Athens, an 8 win season is still within reach, and if we win that one, we'll host Alabama with a rising swell of confidence! Black Friday might be the end of the Tide's unbeaten run, if we continue to play well and the breaks fall like they did today!

War Eagle, everybody! WAR EAGLE! Ain't it grand? Nothing like winning!

Week Seven Previewing: #2 Alabama vs #22 South Carolina

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 13:00:42 -0000

Beating up on Colonel Reb was certainly nice, but as the proverbial saying goes there is no rest for the weary, and that saying rings particularly true for teams competing in the SEC. After beating Ole Miss 22-3 in Oxford, Alabama returns to the friendly confines of Bryant-Denny Stadium this week for its fourth conference game in as many weeks as South Carolina and the Ol' Ball Coach head to Tuscaloosa. The Gamecocks come into this game with a solid 5-1 record and a top-25 ranking, so as is usually the case, the Tide will need to play well in order to insure that it emerges victorious. Let's take a closer look at the match-ups:

Alabama Offense v. South Carolina Defense

The strength of this South Carolina team, as has been the case with nearly all of Steve Spurrier's teams in Columbia, is on the defensive side of the ball, with a defense led by a couple of coaches with strong Alabama ties: Lorenzo Ward ('Bama alum) and Ellis Johnson (two stints, and a national title ring, as an assistant at 'Bama). The Gamecocks are a bit of a different animal defensively in terms of schemes, and as much as possible they try to operate out of a base 4-2-5 set. Whether you've noticed or not, South Carolina has really been an NFL factory the past several years for talent in the defensive backfield, and in many ways the 4-2-5 is just a way of playing to their strengths and getting their best players on the field.

Individually, the standout of the South Carolina defense is clearly linebacker Eric Norwood. At 6'1 and 250+ pounds, Norwood will likely be a star on Sunday one day, and with injuries continuing to plague Greg Hardy, Norwood is probably the best pass rusher in the conference these days. Nevertheless, don't paint him as a Rahim Alem-esque one-trick pony who can only rush the passer, just look at his overall stat line on the year... 38 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 6 sacks for a loss of 42 yards, 5 QB hurries, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, and 2 blocked kicks. Bottom line, the kid can do it all. He can rush the passer, he can play the run, he can play the pass, and he can make an impact on special teams. He is nothing short of a defensive coordinator's dream, plain and simple.

Aside from Norwood, the starting eleven on this team was very good. And I say was because injuries have really hit this unit hard. As I mentioned earlier, they had a great starting eleven, but quality depth was never on their side, and the injury bug has only made things worse. Defensive tackle Travian Robertson tore his ACL earlier in the year, and middle linebacker Rodney Paulk also went down for the year with a knee injury. For a unit with very little proven, quality depth, both injuries hit hard, and making matters worse starting cornerback Akeem Auguste was recently suspended for violating team / university rules, and will not play in this game.

So, we really don't know exactly what to make of the South Carolina defense right now. There are definitely a lot of good players on the defensive side of the ball, that we do know. Aside from Norwood, defensive end Cliff Matthews is a fine player, and Shaq Wilson and Chris Culliver are both very good players in their own right. Moreover, they do have some young guys contributing early, particularly cornerback Stephon Gilmore, a player Saban himself recruited very hard to come to Alabama. The rest of the starters are generally pretty solid at worst, so it's a decent group in that respect.

On the other hand, though, again, injuries have hit this group hard and the depth really just is not there, so in many ways this does have the look of a vulnerable group. The loss of Robertson and Paulk have really hurt the run defense, and it has looked pretty ugly in the past couple of weeks. South Carolina State ran for 170 yards against them, and Kentucky went over 200 yards, both of which is pretty bad news when you set off to head to Tuscaloosa.

In many ways, the defensive backfield, again, has led the Gamecock attack. It's a young group, but they have generally been able to get the job done to date. But, of course, looking at the schedule, you really do have to question the strength of their six opponents to date. North Carolina State, Florida Atlantic, and South Carolina State all have anemic passing attacks, and the Georgia offense with Joe Cox hasn't exactly lit up the scoreboard in Athens. Likewise, Kentucky many have the worst quarterback play of any team in the SEC, and the Gamecocks got to play for more than a quarter against the back-up. Taking Jevan Snead to the woodshed was certainly a good performance, but then again pretty much every good defense that has faced the Rebels have done that (Alabama included), so who really knows how much that says? And, of course, the suspension of Auguste will do nothing to help the Gamecocks on this front.

For Alabama, the Tide really just has to work its way out of the miniature funk it fell into last weekend in Oxford. We know this unit can be extremely good, but Greg McElroy has to be a lot more disciplined in his progressions this week, and frankly the offensive play-calling needs to improve, not to mention red zone execution in general. Fortunately, though, we have been running the ball very well as of late, and we've still got a ton of talent just about everywhere offensively. We don't necessarily need a breakout game here, but an improvement over Ole Miss would be good news.

All in all, I think you have to be cautiously optimistic here for the Tide, so long as you can do a decent job of blocking Norwood and Matthews in pass protection sets. South Carolina certainly has a solid defense -- and honestly a very good one if they could stay healthy -- but again injuries and suspensions have really made there lack of quality depth an issue, and while you still probably aren't going to be running up and down the field against these guys, if we execute better than we did last week against Ole Miss, I do believe it's reasonable to think that we will have some degree of success. If nothing else, we ought to be able to wear these guys down over the course of four quarters and take advantage of their lack of depth.

Alabama Defense v. South Carolina Offense

Perhaps the biggest piece of good news for the Gamecocks this year has been the emergence of quarterback Stephen Garcia. The highly-touted Florida product struggled immensely his first couple of years in Columbia -- about all he did of positive note was to win the Six Beer Challenge -- but he has really turned the corner in 2009. He hasn't gotten all of the publicity that has gone to 'Bama signal caller Greg McElroy, but if you look at Garcia's stat line -- 61% completion rate, over 7.0 yards per attempt, and a 3-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio -- he has played at a level very comparable to McElroy. Furthermore, Garcia is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback, and at 6'2 and approximately 225 pounds, he can be a load to bring down in the open field. After a very ugly start against North Carolina State, the South Carolina offense has actually performed pretty well (arguably as well as it has since Spurrier arrived), and clearly Garcia's progression as a player are the foundation of that improvement.

Admittedly, though, Garcia does have plenty of help at the skill positions, where the Gamecocks have more than their fair share of big, physical playmakers. True freshman Alshon Jeffery is making nice progress on his degree in gas pumping, and while he may not be having quite the kind of year Julio Jones and A.J. Green had last year, he's very close. He has "NFL" written all over him even at 19 years old. Furthermore, Tori Gurley is an incredibly difficult match-up for any cornerback, coming in at around 6'5 and 225 pounds, and Jason Barnes is another big target. And while Moe Brown is the smallest of the group, he's a fine player in his own right, and he's probably the best of the bunch right now. Making matters even better for the Gamecocks, tight end Weslye Saunders comes in at 6'5 and 280 pounds, and he can be a difference-maker in his own right. Bottom line, Garcia has clearly made a lot of progress this season in his own right, but by the same token he's got a lot of great players to throw the football to as well. For a defensive coordinator, this is a group good enough to keep you up late at night.

The weakness of this offense, as has always been the case under Spurrier, is up front on the offensive line. It's not so much that this unit has played poorly, per se, as much as it is that this group just doesn't have a lot of good players anyway, and injuries have hurt considerably. Left tackle Jarriel King is probably the best player they have, and he's not really a standout in his own right. The rest of the line has pretty much been a patchwork job. Hutch Eckerson is starting at right tackle now after the flu and some other injuries caught up with Quintin Richardson, and he has really struggled with edge rushers. Starting left guard Terrence Campbell is going to miss a lot of time with an injury, and that has caused a lot of re-shuffling in its own right. Alabama native Heath Batchelor saw some time there, but he left the program a couple of days ago, and redshirt freshman T.J. Johnson has been forced to play. There has even been talk that true freshman Nick Allison -- who has redshirted to date -- may have to play against the Tide. And making matters even worse, center Garrett Anderson missed the Kentucky game with a back injury, and while he may be back in some capacity against the Tide, he likely won't be 100% and will rotate time with Lemuel Jeanpierre. Bottom line, South Carolina just isn't a very good unit up front. They play hard, seemingly, but they don't have very much talent and injuries have just killed them to date.

The running game for the Gamecocks will be a three-headed monster with carries being split between Kenny Miles, Jarvis Giles, and Brian Maddox. Miles and Giles are scat-back type players, and Maddox is a bruising runner who came into the year as a starter. Maddox really struggled early, though, and gave way to the youngsters Miles and Giles, both of which sport pretty impressive yards per carry average. With his 100-yard performance last weekend against Kentucky, look for Miles to get the bulk of the work against the Tide. On the other hand, though, you can make some legitimate questions about just how good these backs are. The line is obviously in shambles, and while the raw production from Miles and Giles looks impressive on paper, it should be noted that most of that yardage was racked up against the likes of Florida Atlantic and South Carolina State. Giles, for example, may be averaging 5.8 yards per carry, but if you take away those two cupcakes, he's suddenly averaging less than 3.0 yards per carry against the rest of the schedule, and largely the same critique (to a lesser extent) can be made against Miles.

Defensively, we all know that the Tide has the look of an elite unit, and really the only big question mark to date for the 'Bama defense is exactly what happens this week with the return of Jerrell Harris. Obviously we'll all have to tune in to find out for sure, but I imagine we'll see a lot of both Harris and Nico Johnson on Saturday, and we'll have some package specific roles for both players. Who "starts" is really a moot point, and both will likely be breaking a sweat come Saturday night.

Regardless of which of those two players ultimately gets the starting nod, the real key for Alabama on Saturday will be dominating this game at the line of scrimmage. Even with all of the other issues notwithstanding, South Carolina has a small offensive line -- the five starters average right at 300 pounds -- and we need to take full advantage of those weaknesses. Our defensive line needs to get after Garcia and dominate these guys in the running game. If we can do that, we're probably in good shape here. On the other hand, though, if Garcia gets comfortable in the pocket, look for South Carolina to have more than their fair share of success. I don't care how good the Alabama defense supposedly is, we're going to have a lot of issues defending their skill position players if Garcia gets time to throw the football. As is usually the case, look for this match-up to be decided in the trenches.

Putting It All Together

All in all, 'Bama comes into this game as approximately 18-point favorites, and it's not overly difficult to see why Vegas is so bullish on the Tide. We look very good right now, we have more top-end talent and better depth throughout the roster, and while South Carolina's 5-1 record may look nice on paper, who have they really played? Their five wins, to date, consists of a Division 1-AA team, a non-BCS team, a bottom of the barrel ACC team, Kentucky, and a victory at home over Ole Miss, plus a loss to a Georgia team that looks to finish up 6-6 at best. Look at their schedule to date... how many ranked teams do you see? Zero. So there are plenty of reasons for 'Bama fans to feel good going into this game.

But on the other hand, in reality, life in the SEC is just never easy, and the gap between the really good SEC teams and the middle of the road SEC teams is always relatively small. Regardless of how you break it down, truth be told, SEC teams are always a lot more similar than they are different, and that applies this week as well to the Gamecocks. South Carolina may have a lot going against them in this game, but they've still got a lot of fine players in their own right and they are far from a pushover. And, hell, right now they can probably stake as legitimate of a claim to the #3 spot in the SEC as anyone else.

And rest assured, these guys will come out ready to fight. Steve Spurrier has been poor-mouthing his team all week, all but completely writing off this game to the media as a guaranteed loss. Don't buy that garbage for one second. Spurrier loathes 'Bama with every fiber of his being, and hell will freeze over before he concedes us anything. We may take his Gamecocks behind the woodshed and he may need Tommy Johns surgery after throwing that visor all night, but we'll have to earn every bit of it. He's looking to show that he's making progress at South Carolina, and he and his team will fight 'til they drop on Saturday night.

For 'Bama, it's really the same story that it is every week. You never get a week off in the SEC... one challenge is simply replaced by yet another challenge, and regardless of who you play, you're going to have to come out and play good football if you want to win, and if you do that you're probably going to get beat. For all of the advantages that 'Bama has on paper over the Gamecocks, that's still the ultimate scenario we are facing this week.

Hope for the best.

Mark Ingram Learns from His Mistakes

kleph — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:24:49 -0000

There was an interesting story about Mark Ingram in the Opelika-Auburn News today written by Ken Rogers. It told how the star running back had been concerned about a mis-block that had led to a sack of Greg McElroy. OTS and I went back over the tape and noticed a few interesting things.

The story describes the play resulting in a sack by Ole Miss linebacker Jonathan Cornell and defensive end Kentrell Lockett. “You know, that’s the only play I’ve been thinking about,” Ingram told McElroy according to the newspaper. “That’s the only play that’s been bothering me. I’ve been thinking about that play since it happened.”

So we went back and checked the tape. Sure enough, with six minutes left in the third quarter, there is McElroy getting pounded for an 11-yard loss.

Ingram is clearly outmatched by Lockett who has 50 lbs on him and is a full seven inches taller. He gets overpowered and Lockett is able to disrupt McElroy's throw. But the sack itself is made by Cornell who nails McElroy after running completely unimpeded through the Alabama backfield.

The goat of the play isn't Ingram, it's Alabama tight end Preston Dial who seems to have some kind of brain fart right there in the middle of the field. He makes no attempt to block Cornell or to be ready for the dump off pass to save his quarterback. It's an abysmal effort and we are just lucky McElroy wasn't seriously hurt on the play.

Yet, while Ingram may not be responsible for that particular set of grass stains on McElroy's jersey, he had a lot to do with some that got put there in the first quarter. On 1st and 10 at the 11:16 mark, McElroy takes the snap for a passing play and has just a moment to scan the field before his facemask is full of Ole Miss defensive end Greg Hardy.

But this time it is Ingram's missed block that leads to the sack and loss of three yards. He immediately realizes whats happens and rushes back but it's too late. And it's this play that has stuck in his mind after the game.

"When you get the quarterback hit pretty hard or a play doesn’t work because you missed your blocking assignment, it kind of sticks with you more than those good plays," Ingram told the newspaper. "I kept rewinding it and rewinding it again. ... I want to get better and take advantage of the mistake that I made."

Aside for the confusion about the play Ingram refers to, the story is a superb peek into Ingram's progress as a player. He explains a bit about how Glen Coffee helped him improve his game last year and how he's been able to use that on the field this season. It's also got some wonderful insight into the strategy Alabama employs to make the running game work. RBR says, "Check it out."

Saturday NFL Draft watch notes

Mocking Dan — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 14:46:41 -0000

More photos » by Bill Haber - AP

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• A possible matchup tonight between Brandon LaFell of LSU and Joe Haden of Florida is the most intriguing one of the day. Haden can get out of position, something a heady receiver like LaFell can take advantage of. Haden is really good against the run, so he'll test LaFell's blocking ability. LaFell dominated this matchup last season.

This will also be a good game to see what offensive tackle Ciron Black (LSU) and Carlos Dunlap (Florida) are worth. Both have been having ordinary seasons, especially Dunlap. Black is a strong blocker so Dunlap will have to use his initial quickness more today.

In general, LSU's top prospects have been average this season. Running back Charles Scott finally broke a big run last week, but he's slow to the hole. End Rahim Alem has been able to get after the passer and defensive tackle Al Woods has been non-existant. Each could turn their draft fortunes around today.

• Another week and another chance for Mississippi's Jevan Snead to try and prove he's an elite talent. His struggles this year have been plenty noted, but things won't get any easier against Alabama tonight. Snead needs to rely less on his arm strength and use his brain more. Alabama will bring a lot of pressure and Snead's resolve will be tested.

Also in this game, watch for Rebels defensive end Greg Hardy to have a big game. Alabama's offensive tackles are just average so Hardy could have a big game.

• The Ohio State front four is impressive and filled with NFL-caliber players. Chief among them are ends Cameron Heyward and Thaddeus Gibson. Against the pass, particularly Gibson, they are terrors. Today against Wisconsin, they can show how good they are against the run. Sophomore John Clay is a bulldozer of a back who is hard to take down.

• Oklahoma State left tackle Russell Okung can display his dominance today when the Cowboys play Texas A&M. Von Miller has become one of the nation's top sack artists and he'll test Okung's quickness and ability to move his feet.

• Last week Iowa offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga showed few sigs of rust. However, that was against Arkansas State. Today against Michigan the junior might face all-conference end Brandon Graham. The senior can get low around the edge, which could give Bulaga problems.

• Against the duo rushing attack of Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray of Oklahoma, Baylor inside linebacker Joe Pawelek will have his hands full today. This could be a showcase game for the senior sleeper. He has some athletic deficiencies but makes a lot of plays.

• This won't be a game where he can show his ability against the pass, but Florida State's Patrick Robinson is a player to watch today against Georgia Tech. He's considered a one-dimensional player but will get to show what he can do against the run. Robinson has looked good this season against the pass.

• Georgia defensive tackles Jeff Owens and Geno Atkins have been a big disappointment this season. Conversely, Tennessee's Montario Hardesty has been one of the biggest surprises this season. It could be a good matchup to watch this week.