SB Nation - Peria Jerry

The SEC West One Month In

Year2 — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 14:30:22 -0000

Divisional Preseason Storyline

The balance of power has shifted from the SEC East to the West. The top three teams are so close as to be interchangeable. Watch out for Arkansas, who could make a second year leap under Bobby Petrino as so many other teams have made second year leaps under good coaches.

One Month In Reality

This division is stronger than the East, but the gap isn't nearly as wide as thought. Alabama is clearly the best team of the bunch.

Preseason Storyline

How is Alabama going to deal with replacing Andre Smith and the rest of the graduating offensive linemen? It was the strength of last year's offense. Can Mark Ingram fill Glen Coffee's shoes? How about that new quarterback guy, Greg McElroy? We've heard some good practice reports, but no one knows how good he'll be until we see him on the field. At least the defense is mostly in tact.

One Month In Reality

Alabama's line has done just fine, and its four-deep at running back is terrifyingly effective. As for Greg McElroy, he's already looking better than John Parker Wilson ever did. For all the talk of Alabama just needing a game manager behind center, McElroy appears capable of being much more. The defense has resumed its role of a marauding band of pillagers, but now it will have to deal with losing Dont'a Hightower.

Preseason Storyline

We will probably get to see the real Bobby Petrino offense now that the rocket-armed pocket statue Ryan Mallett is taking over for the Dick brothers. The Razorbacks were near the top of the conference in passing last year despite the situation under center, so it should be even better now. If the defense can shore itself up some, this team could be a spoiler.

One Month In Reality

The defense may be even worse than last year, as it made Joe Cox look like Joe Montana and turned the Crimson Tide attack into a big play offense. The unit has no hope of keeping things close when the offense isn't clicking. Mallett has been good, as predicted, and his arm is dangerous from anywhere on the field. However, it's not good enough to overcome an elite defense, and it's looking like it will be a while before the Hogs become a real complete team.

Preseason Storyline

Leave it to Auburn to fire a winner for Mr. 5-19. What were they thinking? The defense will probably still be good with Gene Chizik on the staff, but the defense wasn't really the problem last year anyway. Gus Malzahn was an intriguing hire, but what can he do with the hole at quarterback? Will his spread scheme transplant be rejected like Tony Franklin's was?

One Month In Reality

It's hard to argue with much when you're 4-0 and doing it with style. The offense has surpassed 500 total yards in three of the four wins, and is right at the top of the total and scoring offense ranks with Florida. The Tigers returned to their roots as a rushing team as well, as they are currently fifth in the nation in rushing yards per game. Perhaps the most impressive stat of all is that Chris Todd is sixth in the country in passing efficiency. Granted Auburn has played only ~~one~~ two teams from a Big Six conference, so the optimism is tempered a bit. However, they couldn't have put up these kinds of numbers against air last year.

Preseason Storyline

It's time for Les Miles to show something now that all of Nick Saban's players have left. Hiring John Chavis should help shore up the defense, and the offense is probably in good hands with Jordan Jefferson. Everyone who has seen a practice has raved about the skill position players, so it's looking like a bounce back year for the Tigers.

One Month In Reality

LSU is 4-0, but only just. The team is being buoyed by its 23rd ranking in scoring defense, but it is also 49th in total defense, 53rd in scoring offense, and a dismal 105th in total offense. The thing is still a work in progress, with wins over Washington, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State coming a bit too close for comfort. You can make an excuse for all of them (UW was the longest road trip in school history; Vandy does that to all conference front runners every now and then; MSU was an 11 AM game on the road and a look ahead game), but this team is out of them now. A poor performance against Georgia will likely get them beat badly.

Preseason Storyline

This is it. This is the Rebels' year. They finished last year 6-0 and beat the national champs. Most everyone important comes back. Sure it will be tough to replace Michael Oher and Peria Jerry, but with a strong rest of the D-line and the conference's second best quarterback, Ole Miss should still compete for a division championship.

One Month In Reality

Ole Miss does indeed look like the team from last year. Unfortunately, it is the one that began the season 3-4 and not the one that finished strongly. The loss of Oher is looming very large as the offense has sputtered early against Memphis and for the first three quarters against South Carolina. The defense has held up its end of the bargain so far, allowing no more than 14 points in a game, but until Jevan Snead and the offense get back on track, it will be tough to consider the Rebels a true contender to Alabama's throne.

Preseason Storyline

Hiring the offensive coordinator of the national champion, regardless of who that is, has to be considered a bit of a coup for Mississippi State. Now that Dan Mullen is in the fold though, we can't really expect much of him yet. Sylvester Croom, for all of his admirable qualities, never assembled much talent in Starkville, and conversions to spread option attacks seldom go well in the first year. A win or two in the conference would be a good year.

One Month In Reality

A 2-2 start for Mississippi State is encouraging, but it's even moreso when you consider that the Bulldogs could easily be 3-1 if not for the late game heroics of LSU's Chad Jones. MSU collected a conference win against Vanderbilt and looked good in giving LSU the scare of a lifetime. Mullen has taken Croom's offensive cesspool and turned it into the country's 25th best rushing attack. The game against Auburn didn't go so well, but otherwise things are looking up so far.

Comparison: Ole Miss versus Memphis in 2008-09

Year2 — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 16:00:53 -0000

Since we only have a week of football under our belts, the only thing we can do right now for comparison's sake is look at what teams did last year versus what they did this year. So with that in mind, let's take a look at how Ole Miss did against Memphis both last year and this year.

As with previous comparisons, sack yardage has been taken out of the rushing totals.

OFFENSE

CATEGORY	vs. MEM '08	vs. MEM '09
Total Yards	438	352
Passing	222	175
Yds. per Pass	9.7	8
Rushing	216	177
Yds. Per Rush	6.0	4.7
Turnovers	0	3
Time of Poss.	26:20	27:42
Sacks All.	0	1 (-3 yards)

The Rebel offense took a step back between last year and this year, with both total yardage and average yardage per pass and carry declining. The three turnovers are a big shock too. But, there are any number of reasons for this. It was on the road, and it's somewhat of a rivalry game. Key players were in the early stages of contracting the flu. They are a favorite this year and as such, they held things back as opposed to last year when there was no reason to. They simply had a sloppy day.

It will take a little time to know what exactly it was. For now, the key is using the off week to get Jevan Snead and Dexter McCluster back healthy from the flu.

DEFENSE

CATEGORY	vs. MEM '08	vs. MEM '09
Total Yards	453	316
Passing	265	134
Yds. per Pass	6	3.7
Rushing	188	182
Yds. Per Rush	4.7	4.7
Turnovers	2	3
Time of Poss.	33:40	32:18
Sacks For	0	3 (-32 yards)

The defense, on the other hand, had a much better day. It wasn't so much in the rushing, clearly, but the Rebels were much better in pass defense. They cut Memphis' yards per pass almost in half and had three sacks for an average of about 10 yards apiece. For one day at least, the Rebels didn't miss the departed Peria Jerry.

Since a lot of teams can be rusty on the first weekend, and because of the flu factor, it's too early to say for sure how Ole Miss is in relation to last year. The fact that the defense didn't fall off any despite any week one issues is definitely a good sign. If you want to win the West this year, you're going to need to bring a tough defense.

Previous Comparison: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU.

The Cup Countdown: Number 7

Whiskey Wednesday — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 21:14:53 -0000

Media Darlings: You know them when you see them. Some hot, upstart team gets an undue amount of air time, with various talking heads raving about this and that, pretending that, all of a sudden, Generic State University is somehow relevant or interesting. I remember how ESPN's guys gushed about MSU's cowbells back in the late 1990's. Not so much anymore. Maybe this year, they'll make a huge fuss about the Grove, The Walk of Champions, Chucky Mullins (all of which are cooler than cowbells, btw), though they could just as easily continue the party line of "Racism was invented in Oxford, Mississippi." But I digress...

Last year, Texas Tech had taken the media darling phenomenon to new heights. And why not? The only coach in America that Houston Nutt might describe as "a little off-kilter..." an awesome wideout who likes to say stupid things in front of cameras... A wide-open offense and a paraplegic defense, generating TV-friendly shootouts week after week... With the Red Raiders rolling to a 10-0 record, the media had no choice but to rain down the love on the Red Raiders. As a result, throwing tortillas on the field is cool. The bell ringer (no, I'm not linking the video) is cool...

Then, we start hearing about this guy:

I get it. I wasn't cool in high school. I had some friends that got tired of being not cool, and started wearing black, dying their hair, wearing funny make-up. I decided to keep being a dork, ride it out, continue being semi-normal, enroll at Ole Miss, and drink my way through a business degree. But I get it: attention-starved people will often go great lengths to be noticed, be it in a positive or negative light. It's best just to ignore them; shooting close-ups of them on national TV is a terrible idea.

So once this Brandon Carter lunatic gets some face time, and Tech continues to post dominant victories over mediocre Big XII teams, a couple of indulgent, homo-erotic fluff pieces come out, painting the entire Tech offensive line as some quirky, diverse hodge-podge of individuals who in no way suck at life, are starved for attention, or are beneficiaries of a quick-release offensive scheme and terrible defensive opponents. Meanwhile, Ole Miss, at 3-4 on the season, having officially missed the media love train, has decided to quietly start stomping mudholes in asses.

So after a month or three of this tom-foolery, the stage is set: the #7 Red Raiders must stoop to playing the newly-ranked Rebels in the Cotton Bowl. Rebel fans (and recent Ole Miss opponents) are confident, but the entire rest of the nation is convinced that this game is a beatdown in the making. Tech supporters, citing that our defensive line is our biggest strength, are quick to point out that their mutant version of the Insane Clown Posse, with their cute nicknames and CBS sportswire features, are going to totally dominate Jerry, Hardy and co., leaving Harrell and Crabtree free to play a leisurely game of pitch and catch while the Ole Miss secondary stumbles around helplessly, yakety sax playing mockingly in the background (PS-check this out, and this. You're welcome.).

Long story short: we have this guy (why haven't I seen this article before today? It's amazing), and as we all know:

I'll admit, the Tech offensive line did a good job against our defensive line. It just wasn't good enough. Sure, we didn't sack Harrell 8 times and force a ton of errant back foot throws. But Harrell, quite frankly, isn't used to being touched, and he was fairly well-acquainted with the Cotton Bowl grass by the end of that fair January afternoon. Growing more and more irritable about their inability to keep their QB clean, Brandon Carter and Stephen Hamby both lost it, ripping their helmets off, pushing around 190 pound Ole Miss players, and generally smearing their mascara in a manner not at all appropriate for aspiring professional wrestlers/fry cooks/Lubbock real estate agents.

And there is was: the #7 greatest moment from the 2008 Ole Miss football season. Media darlings exposed as pass-happy frauds. TTU fans and players exposed as the sorest losers in all of college football. The Rebels revealed as potential contenders in 2009 and beyond. Stay tuned for day #6, all the way up day #1, and the opener, when JUCO and I will help invade Memphis and ring in the new season. Happy Weekend, and Hotty Toddy.

2009 SEC West Preview & Predictions

outsidethesidelines — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

In attempting to predict the SEC last year, I simply went through each member school's schedule and made definitive picks, game-by-game, and then compiled everything at the end to determine the overall standings and the division champions. For the 2009 season, however, I decided to scrap that format. As appealing as picking individual games can be simply because of its definitive nature, in many ways it is just a waste of time because there is just entirely too much random chance involved in each particular game, and on the whole it's far better to simply view the season in its entirety instead of trying to dissect its individual components from the outset.

To that end, this year I'm going to focus more on teams as a whole and make final predictions from there, thus omitting the individual game predictions. Moreover, unlike last year where I predicted the entire SEC, this year I'm going to focus only on the SEC West. My thought is that unless the terrorists successfully carry out jihad against Gainesville, the Gators are going to win the East by a mile, and frankly if you aren't a fan of one of the other five SEC Eastern Division members, who really cares what order they go in two through six? Thus, here goes my SEC West preview and predictions for 2009:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Coming into the season as the prohibitive favorites for the first time in ages, a quick look reveals why the prognosticators have been so high on the Tide. This is the most talented team we've seen in Tuscaloosa in ages, and the defensive side of the ball should probably be stronger than any defense the Tide has fielded since 1992. With the strength of the front seven -- a front seven that could legitimately feature three All-American candidates -- 'Bama should once again field an elite run defense. The loss of Rashad Johnson won't help things, but 'Bama led the SEC in conference play last year in pass efficiency defense, and by returning every other member of the two-deep rotation in the defensive backfield -- not to mention additions from Dre Kirkpatrick and Burton Scott -- a drop-off in performance is unlikely. Furthermore, things could even better, because for the first team since 2002, Alabama looks to have the pieces in place to at least be a solid pass rushing team, and even a solid, consistent pass rush would work wonders for the overall pass defense given the quality of defensive backs the Tide has.

The offense, too, has more than its fair share of strengths. Mike Johnson is one of the best guards in the country, and Colin Peek will be one of the conference's upper echelon tight ends if he can stay relatively healthy. Of course there is Julio Jones, already probably the greatest pure wide receiver in the history of Alabama football, but aside from him the rest of the receiving corps is deep with many talented playmakers in the fold. Likewise, the backfield is loaded with elite talent including the likes of Mark Ingram, Roy Upchurch, Trent Richardson, and others. And as an additional matter, quality depth on both sides of the ball is better than we have in years in Tuscaloosa.

With that glowing overview in mind, however, this is far from a flawless team. Greg McElroy has made tremendous amounts of progress in the past 18 months, and he has done effectively all that the coaching staff has asked him to do until this point. I think 'Bama fans can be as confident as can reasonably be expected with him under center, but until you step under center against a hostile defense in a real, live situation, frankly you can never really know what to expect. I think it's fair to say that the reasonable expectation for McElroy right now is that he will provide solid play at the quarterback position, but that is not to say anyone should be overly shocked if he suddenly turned into a liability.

The real concern, though, is the offensive line. The ideal situation for the Tide, of course, is to have the line mow over opponents like last year, dominating the game and turning McElroy into a game manager. Unfortunately, there's no such guarantee of that. The official depth chart will not be released until next week, but that notwithstanding, the starting five is this, going left to right: James Carpenter, Mike Johnson, William Vlachos, Barrett Jones, and Drew Davis. And I'll be frank, though quality depth is much improved, I think we should be a bit concerned with this group. Barrett Jones may play well at right guard (and I figure he is at least decent), but his presence is a major surprise, and we won't be able to give Drew Davis near the help from backs and tight ends that we did a year ago without having Andre Smith locking down the other side. Mike Johnson should do well again, but while James Carpenter and William Vlachos look to be solid players, a step down in performance from what we had a year ago at those positions is probably to be expected. As a whole, I don't think you have to worry about the line being bad -- far from it, I think the line should be pretty good -- but by the same token, I think we'll struggle somewhat in pass protection this year (as we did last year), and in the running game this line probably won't be able to consistently annihilate opponent's at the point of attack like it's predecessor did a year ago. That translates into putting more pressure on McElroy and forcing him to make more plays in the passing game, all of which could turn relatively easy wins into close games, and close wins into close losses.

Finally, special teams remains a legitimate concern for the Tide. Our coverage units should do really well simply because the great athletes we will be able to put on special teams, but the rest remains a concern. There is no doubting that Javier Arenas is an elite returner who will generate his fair share of big plays, but his decision making ability on punt returns is highly questionable at best, and many times last year he gave the opposition points on turnovers as a result of his poor decision making. Moreover, Leigh Tiffin will probably remain highly inconsistent at best (even when he is healthy), and frankly we do not want to see him trotting on the field with the game on the line. Likewise, he doesn't routinely get great distance and / or hang time on his kick-offs, another concern. Along those same lines, P.J. Fitzgerald at punter is a concern as well. He has slowly progressed and improved in his time at Alabama, but he's a small kid with an average-at-best leg, so he has most likely reached his peak. The smart money is clearly on yet another year in which Fitzgerald cannot produce great distance or hang time on his punts. As a result, despite some likely good coverage units and big plays from Javier Arenas, special teams isn't likely to be a strength for the Tide in 2009, and may in fact even be a liability.

Fortunately for Alabama the schedule does set up nicely. The opener against Virginia Tech will be a tough one -- and a loss there, at the very least, likely eliminates the Tide from BCS bowl contention (unless they can run the table from there) -- but a win there and it's relatively easily sledding until the road trip to Oxford the second week of October. Likewise, even after the Rebels, Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina, and UT-Chattanooga remain on the schedule, all four of which should be wins. An upset loss here and there wouldn't be a shock, but the defense and the coaching is good enough to guarantee at least nine wins barring either a complete meltdown by either McElroy, or a terrible run of injury luck.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Bobby Petrino's debut campaign in Fayetteville has about as many obstacles as expected, but things seemingly look much better for year two. It's clear that Petrino and company are still rebuilding the Razorbacks, but this is a much better squad than what we faced last year in Fayetteville, and all of those teams that got an easy win over the Hogs last year won't be so lucky in 2009.

The biggest single addition for Arkansas comes at the quarterback position. The Hogs spent most of last year with Casey and Nathan Dick at quarterback, and suffered the consquences thereof. Neither of the two were legitimate SEC caliber players, but all of that changes this year with the arrival of the gargantuan Ryan Mallett. A former five-star recruit from Texarkana, Mallett played as a freshman for Michigan before transferring to Fayetteville after the arrival of Rich Rodriguez. Mallett will start in 2009 for the Hogs, and in doing so he will not only be a major upgrade over both of the Dick sisters, but he'll have the strongest arm of any SEC quarterback. The reasonable expectation at this point is that Mallett will be one of the conference's top quarterbacks.

And, even aside from Mallett, there are a lot of other promising players at the skill positions for the Hogs. Tight end D.J. Williams is probably the best that the conference has to offer, and scatback Michael Smith -- who led the SEC in all purpose yardage last year -- is probably the best back you've never heard of. He's small, but he has great speed and agility, he's surprisingly effective as an inside returner, and he's much more durable than you would expect given his small frame. Likewise, with Dennis Johnson, De'Anthony Curtis, Broderick Green, and Ronnie Wingo rounding out the rest of the backfield, it's a highly talented group. Moreover, while the wide receiver corps doesn't really feature any truly great playmaker, it's a deep, solid group of guys who have shown that they can get the job done.

The real concern on the offensive side of the ball is the line. Three starters return from a year ago, and a fourth starter (Mitch Petrus) is actually a player who started in 2007. Unfortunately for the Hogs, though, All-American center Jonathon Luigs is gone, and in general the returning starters are the ones who were weak links a year ago. The tackles, in particular, Ray Dominguez and DeMarcus Love, have struggled with edge rushers, and if anything both of those guys probably should be playing inside at guard. All in all, it's just a bit of a concern for the Hogs. If these guys can consistently keep Mallett upright, the Hogs look to have a very potent offense, and one that could give even the best defenses legitimate trouble. On the other hand, a struggling offensive line will almost certainly slow what must be the unit that carries the Hogs to victory in 2009.

The defense, too, remains a major concern. The Hogs struggled defensively in 2007, and were even worse last year. In 2008 they were dead last in the conference in run defense, and the pass defense wasn't much better. Some steps may be made in the right direction in 2009 -- a couple of JUCO transfers in the defensive backfield should help, plus most of the defensive line returns -- but they still have a lot of issues, and it's unlikely that the Hogs will be able to move out of the cellar in most defensive categories in 2009.

All in all, the Hogs are a team that is clearly moving in the right direction, and they will be a dangerous team in 2009. Last year they knocked off LSU, Auburn, and almost beat Ole Miss. Rest assured they will get a couple of big-name upsets this year as well. Though sheer strength of schedule will dictate a few more roadblocks for the Hogs in 2009 -- five teams on their schedule are currently ranked in the AP top 15 -- this is a dangerous team, and one that could really surprise a lot of people if the defense can show some signs of life.

Auburn Tigers

Following their worst season in a decade, Auburn made a different kind of splash hire by bringing in former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik. Though near suicidal upon first hearing the news, most Auburn fans are now predictably bathing in the Kool-Aid, but looking at the Tigers in an objective light reveals that their fan base probably had it right to start with. On the whole, it's nearly impossible to believe their fall from grace in recent years. After going a combined 34-5 from 2004-2006, Auburn now finds itself with scholarship levels reminiscent of a program undergoing major NCAA sanctions, and possessing a depth chart paper thin in terms of both elite talent and quality depth. Things are so bad that almost any true freshman -- though they came from a highly unimpressive recruiting class -- healthy enough to play will be required do so in 2009, and a few walk-ons will be expected to contribute as well. From the outset, the mere fact that the athletic director is publicly trying to cool expectations for the program for the next couple of years ought to tell you all you need to know about their future prospects.

Chris Todd surprised many when he won the starting quarterback job all of a week into Fall camp, but despite a surgically repaired throwing shoulder, Todd's starting job probably has more to do with the shortcomings of the other candidates than it does his own skills. Neil Caudle is a bust now, as is Kodi Burns, and they are going to try to run some Wildcat-type stuff with Burns at the helm. But, of course, no one really knows what to expect of the newfangled Auburn offense. It's going to be a spread offense, but apparently one that is run-heavy, and it's also going to be a hurry-up offense to boot. And yes that's a major break from offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn's track record, and yes they are going to run some Wildcat as well. So, no, I don't have any clue as to what they are going to do, and frankly I doubt anyone else does either.

And, truth be told, it probably doesn't matter one way or the other regardless of what they do. Todd is likely to be a below average quarterback, and the offensive line looks to struggle. Lee Ziemba and Ryan Pugh look good (when healthy), but the rest of the line looks to be in major trouble. Byron Isom, Mike Berry, and Andrew McCain are nothing special, and the depth on this unit is ridiculously thin. A kid like Chris Capps would easily see playing time with this group. And making matters worse, there is zero proven depth at wide receiver. About the only good thing you can say about this offense is that the tailbacks look to be a solid group. On the whole, though, given the overall lack of depth, good quarterback play, and game-changers at the skill positions, this offense looks to struggle regardless of what type of offensive system they implement, which is exactly the reason I'm not going to waste any time here trying to predict exactly what they are going to do offensively. Again, wishbone, run and shoot, whatever, the end result is almost certainly the same.

On defense, too, Auburn has a lot of problems. Last year's group was strong one hindered only by an incompetent defense, but a lot has changed since then. Guys like Trey Blackmon and Jerraud Powers left early, and what is left is largely a shell of what once was. The entire group is thin as a whole, and outside of Josh Bynes and Antonio Coleman, it's hard to identify many defenders who are clearly above average at this point. Mike McNeil is a fine player at safety, but he broke a leg in Spring practice, and at this point it looks like he is going to miss a few weeks of the season at least. Eltoro Freeman is a JUCO transfer who could really help out and be an impact player, but he has missed time this Fall with both an arm injury and a leg injury. All in all, much like the offense, the defense features very few top-end players, and almost no quality depth whatsoever.

On the whole, Auburn has a fairly decent starting 22, but considering modern day college football is a game that needs 50-55 good, solid contributors in order to play at a high level, that doesn't do them much good. Again, quality depth is the name of the game in football, and Auburn possesses almost none of that precious commodity. The schedule isn't easy in 2009, either, and frankly only Furman and Ball State are guaranteed wins. Of course Auburn will get more wins than that, I'm sure, but the point remains that wins likely won't come frequently for the '09 Tigers, and the few that do will likely be the result of some very close, hard fought contests. Much like last year, Auburn expects to be fighting tooth and nail with Mississippi State for last place in the SEC West.

LSU Tigers

After a disappointing 2008 campaign, the Bayou Bengal faithful hopes for improvement in 2009, and in all fairness they probably should get it. Jordan Jefferson, at the least, shouldn't be quite as disastrous as Jarrett Lee was a year ago, and while John Chavis is not a spectacular hire at defensive coordinator -- and in fact one I don't like in the long run -- he's an upgrade over what they had a year ago. As a result,

At quarterback the job belongs all to Jordan Jefferson now, and we'll have to see what he has made of. The LSU Hype Machine naturally has him as a superstar in the works, but a more objective view reveals more question marks and uncertainty. He played decent football last year -- relative to what Jarrett Lee did anyway -- but nevertheless he struggled to complete passes, and he took a ton of sacks thanks to his poor decision-making abilities. Based on what Jefferson has shown us, he looks to be a solid player eventually, but he still has a lot to prove, and all of these purple and gold notions just assuming that it's only a matter of time before he becomes a star quarterback are really just wishful thinking more than anything else. For now, what we can reasonably say about Jefferson is that he has a nice physical skill set with good long-term upside, and that if the LSU coaching staff uses him wisely, he might not be a top-end player this year but he will at least provide solid play and not turn the LSU offense into a trainwreck like Jarrett Lee did a year ago.

The rest of the skill positions are generally in good shape in Baton Rouge. Brandon LaFell will be one of the conference's top receivers, and likewise Richard Dickson will be one of the conference's top tight ends. Charles Scott is one of the conference's better tailbacks, and there is a lot of depth in the backfield with Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy, and incoming freshman Mike Ford. Likewise, while I don't think Russell Shephard will ever be an above average quarterback in this league, he's clearly an elite athlete, and I'm sure the LSU coaching staff will find some ways to take advantage of that this year. The only real concern at the skill positions is a lack of experienced depth, but the Tigers have recruited extremely well, and tremendous amounts of raw talent and athleticism are everywhere, so they should likely be fine even though they are not particularly experienced. Besides, experience at the skill positions tends to be a bit overrated, and in any event the Tigers aren't likely to face a legitimate test until the fifth week of the season when they go on the road to face Georgia, so again lack of experience shouldn't be a major concern.

The real concern with LSU's offense in many ways, much like Alabama, is with the offensive line. Jefferson is still green and ideally the coaching staff would be able to use a highly successful running game to take pressure off of him, but again there is no guarantee that will happen. Ciron Black is clearly the best tackle in the conference now, and Joseph Barksdale is more than adequate at right tackle. However, the interior linemen aren't necessariliy strengths. Gone are left guard Herman Johnson and center Brett Helms -- both punishing blockers in the running game -- and while Lyle Hitt returns at right guard, I've always considered him to be the weak link of the line. Making matters worse, T-Bob Hebert was expected to start at center after the departure of Helms, but he has been banged up in Fall camp, and that too is in question now. Moreover, this is a young line that probably doesn't have as much depth as you would at first imagine. The bottom line is that center / guard play of the interior linemen is exponentially important to the success of the running game, and if LSU has trouble here -- regardless of their strengths at the tackle position -- the running game will suffer, and more pressure will be put on Jefferson to make plays on his own. Again, as was the case with Alabama and Greg McElroy, that could very well result in more mistakes from the quarterback position, which can easily turn relatively easy wins into nailbiters, and close wins into close losses.

Defensively, the Bayou Bengals look to rebound from its worst showing in years in 2008. Truth be told, though, the LSU defense a year ago was a tale of two stories... a really good run defense, mixed with a really bad pass defense. And the bad news for the Tigers is that the cornerstones of the run defense -- the defensive line and linebacker Derry Beckwith -- have all moved on to the next level, so there are legitimate question marks there. Most of the defensive backfield returns, but again it is returning a unit that couldn't stop the pass, despite the fact that they were constantly helped by a good pass rush. Nevertheless, LSU has boatloads of talent all over the defense, and the real question is just whether or not they can take full advantage of it. They couldn't do that a year ago and struggled, but it will take an equally bad showing by both coaches and players to get a repeat performance of that poor effort in 2009.

All in all, LSU is a difficult projection, easily the most difficult of the entire SEC, and perhaps even the country. You still have questions at quarterback, and the running game may not go as smoothly as many assume. Furthermore, while the talent is there on the defensive side of the ball, and while John Chavis is an upgrade over Peveto and Mallory, he himself on occasion did field some bad defenses in Knoxville despite having loads of elite talent up on ol' Rocky Top. Plus, each and every year since arriving in Baton Rouge, Les Miles and company have lost games to some not so impressive teams that they should have easily won, and that will likely continue in 2009. On the other hand, LSU is easily still one of the nationally elite programs in terms of raw talent and athleticism, and the schedule once again is doing them a huge favor. Their athletic department continued a commitment to cupcakes approach to non-conference scheduling in 2009 -- getting 0-12 Washington, mixed in with Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Tulane -- and that combined with the luck of drawing the likely three worst SEC teams (Auburn, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt) means that they could play very poorly and still easily sleepwalk to seven wins. As I said two weeks ago, if I had to give all the possible outcomes, I'd say LSU could go anywhere from 7-5 to 11-1, and I'd give them a 20% chance of each individual outcome. Exactly where will they end up along that spectrum? It'll probably come down to the same two things it did a year ago: coaching and quarterback play, but trying to predict exactly where cannot be anything more than a pure guess at this point. Only with ignorance could you be particularly certain of that prediction at this point.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

After showing some signs of life for almost the first time in a decade, the Bulldogs came crashing back down in 2008, and the struggles brought a new regime to Mississippi State. Out is Sylvester Croom, and for the first time in almost 20 years a non-Alabama alum is roaming the sidelines in Starkville, as Dan Mullen takes over for the Bullies. And in all fairness to MSU, it's not a bad hire. Mullen is a young, energetic coach who is on the rise, and one who already has a couple of national championship rings on his resume. His hire may very well have been better than either Lane Kiffin or Gene Chizik.

That notwithstanding, though, it looks to be a very harsh reality for the Bulldogs in 2009. Mullen may have been hired because of his offensive background, but it's hard to see him breathing any life into this offense in 2009. It's been hapless for years, and with the 5'10 and 195 pound Tyson Lee leading the offense this year, it's hard to see that changing. It will probably be a major shock if he can withstand a year's worth of pounding in the SEC, and even if he can he's not likely to be very effective anyway. True freshman Tyler Russell is the quarterback of the future in any event, and his reign will likely begin sometime this year in Starkville. That's good news in one sense because Russell is a much more talented player than Lee, and he's a bitter fit for Mullen's spread option system, but I'll let you do the math on the success true freshmen quarterbacks have in this league while surrounded by poor supporting casts.

And speaking of that poor supporting cast, I think that's probably the nicest way to put it. The wide receiver corps has some problems, to put it mildly. Brandon McRae is a fine wide receiver, but who knows how he will rebound from the gruesome, Prothro-esque broken leg he suffered last year against Ole Miss? And aside from McRae, there really are no proven commodities. JUCO transfer Leon Berry will be counted on heavily, and from there true freshmen like Chad Bumphis will get a great chance at playing time. Mullen's spread needs a lot of quality receivers, and the Bulldogs just don't have it right now. Likewise, the offensive line doesn't look very good either. To be sure, most of the starters return from a year ago, but MSU has struggled in the trenches for ages now, and the physical brand of football that the Dawgs often played with under Croom will do them no good under Mullen. How will the MSU linemen handle the transition to the spread option? It's anyone's guess, but nearly everyone will be surprised if they do it with any considerable degree of success.

Probably the best player State has, period, is tailback Anthony Dixon, but even with him you have to worry. He's a big, powerful running back who gets the job done between the tackles. Now, one of you readers, remind me... how successful has Urban Meyer been with big, powerful, between the tackle running backs? His only success with them has been signing them, and then watching them flame out as recruiting busts. His offense has no real need for such a player, and Mullen's might not at MSU either. I'm sure he'll try to work Dixon into the mix as much as possible just because he's one of the few talented players he has, but at the end of the day the point remains that Dixon is built to run out of the I-formation and in between the tackles, not as the centerpiece of the spread option. Look for Christian Ducre to get more of a role there simply because he's a better fit for the scheme.

And the defense is probably in just as bad of shape as the offense. Defense was the strong point of the Croom teams, but only three starters are returning in 2009. The defensive line is both small and without any great amount of depth, so much so that when JUCO transfer Pernell McPhee -- a good player in his own right, in all fairness -- stepped on campus, he probably became State's top lineman almost instantaneously. That's good news for State, but the bad news is that he'll likely have to be a truly dominant player just to give the rest of the line a fighting chance. Likewise, the defensive secondary is effectively a complete makeover. Marcus Washington returns at cornerback, and Damein Anderson looks to start opposite him, with Derek Pegues gone, the rest of the Bulldog secondary seemingly either lacks the size or speed (or both) needed to be high-end defensive backs in this conference. Last year's defensive backfield was a good unit for the Dawgs, but it'd be a major surprise if this revamped unit could pull off the trick again this year.

The only good news for the Dawgs on defense comes at linebacker. If Jamar Chaney successfully returns from his leg injury, he'll be a top end player, and perhaps the most underrated defensive player in the entire conference. Aside from Chaney, both K.J. Wright and Chris White are solid players in their own right, and if this unit can stay healthy, it has a chance to be a good one. Unfortunately, the rest of the defense looks to struggle so much in front of them and behind them that it probably won't give them much of a chance to shine.

As I've said before, I've always had a soft spot for the traditionally hapless Bullies, and I like Dan Mullen to boot, but objectively speaking it looks to be a long year ahead for them. They'll start off with a good fluff win over Jackson State, but from there the schedule is brutal. They will almost certainly be underdogs in every single conference game, Georgia Tech will go through them like a hot knife through butter, and even Houston and Middle Tennessee State probably aren't sure wins.

Ole Miss Rebels

The media darlings of the SEC this year, Ole Miss made a big jump last year, and many in the national media are betting that they will make yet another big jump in 2009. Yet, interestingly enough, they were picked to finish third in their own division at SEC Media Days. And that brings me to a point that I keep coming across... the further away you get from the Ole Miss program, the more heightened the expectations are for the 2009 season. The closer you get to it, the lower the expectations get. Personally, I think that is because the people who follow the program on a closer level than the national pundits are able to spot some flaws and weaknesses that the national pundits are apparently overlooking in their rush to deify the Rebels as the next big thing.

And make no mistake about it, despite the hype in some circles, this team does have a lot of holes and a lot of concerns. Jevan Snead is a fine quarterback, and the backfield is generally loaded, but the offensive line looks to be a major concern. The loss of Michael Oher cannot be overstated, simply because he was an elite talent and because the Rebels do not have anywhere even near his level of ability now that can replace him. Many hoped Bobby Massie would be able to do that, but after arriving in Oxford only about three weeks back, that is highly unlikely. And making matters worse, both starting guards are gone as well, and frankly the replacements don't look to be anything overly special. Of the remaining linemen, only John Jerry looks to be one of the best in his conference at his position, and the rest of the starting five have more of the look of a below average line than anything else. It's basically the exact same problem Alabama has, only that the Rebels don't have anywhere near the number of talented players to fill the holes.

A lesser concern on the offensive side of the ball can also be found at wide receiver. With Mike Wallace gone to the NFL, only Shay Hodges remains in Oxford. Hodges is a fine player in his own right, but from there things get dicy. Dexter McCluster will assume the role of a full-time starter now in Wallace's absence, and while McCluster certainly has the talent, he thrived last year in a jack of all trades role, and no one knows how he will do as more of a traditional, full-time wide receiver. And after McCluster, the proven commodities are pretty non-existent. Players like Lionel Breaux and Markeith Summers aren't necessarily bad players, but by the same token they aren't the ultra-elite athletes that you find at a place like LSU where you can almost just assume that you can plug and play them and they will perform at a high level. The Rebels are probably going to have to rely heavily on true freshman Pat Patterson.

And the defensive side of the ball has more concerns than the offense. Peria Jerry was the key to Ole Miss' stout run defense last year, and he is now with the Atlanta Falcons, and just like with Michael Oher, the Rebels do not seem to have a player of comparable quality to replace him. Ted Laurent and Lawson Scott will play a lot inside, but I really don't think they would play for any other SEC contender, and for all of his recruiting hype and academic saga, Jerrell Powe has done nothing of note to this point. Likewise, at linebacker, it's a thin unit with no true star players. It's not exactly what you what you dream of having when you prepare for a tough run through an SEC schedule.

Defensive end is a clear strength, and if Greg Hardy finally gets things together, he along with Marcus Tillman and Kentrell Lockett will probably form the best defensive end rotation in the SEC. Unfortunately, that strength is off-set by more concerns in the secondary. They really struggled against the pass last year -- despite having the conference's best pass rush -- and while three starters return, none of those returning players seem to be particularly good. More struggles against the pass seem likely for 2009. Moreover, Houston Nutt's two major recruiting additions to the defensive backfield have already flamed out. Jamar Horsnby, the five-star who washed out of Florida after being caught using a dead woman's credit card, has been kicked off the team after yet another run-in with the law. His next stop will likely be jail. And speaking of jail, the other big recruiting addition to the defensive backfield for Nutt in 2009, Tig Barksdale, also spent some time there recently after being arrested on charges of DUI and driving without a license. Now, Barksdale will not enroll this Fall as a result of "medical issues."

So what do you have when you put it all together with the Rebels? You've got a good quarterback, a good backfield, a couple of good receivers, and a great pass rush. But you've also got major concerns with the offensive line, a middling linebacker corps, a suspect interior to the defensive line, a secondary that will likely struggle again, and a team with very little depth at almost every single position. And your head coach has disappointed almost every single time high preseason expectations have been placed upon his teams. Does that sound like a championship team to you? I'll let you be the judge of that.

Of course, this is not to overly denigrate the Rebels. They went 9-4 a year ago, and they have enough strengths to knock off almost anyone they face on any given day. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them knock off either Alabama or LSU, or both for that matter. However, before we deify the Rebels, it should be kept in mind that they have enough weaknesses to where they could just as easily lose those big games, and also lose some that they are expected to win. When everyone looks back on the 2008 Rebels, they love to remember them as the team that beat Florida in the Swamp, the team that blew out LSU, and the team that spanked Texas Tech. Yet the fact that they lost at home to Vanderbilt, lost at home to South Carolina, lost to Wake Forest, and needed a squeaker to hold off 5-7 Arkansas gets completely overlooked. Bottom line, the Rebels have enough strengths to win a lot of games and get some big wins, but they also have enough weaknesses to where they are also likely to lose some games they should not, and once again, just like last year, be left outside the championship chase.

Final SEC West Predictions

(1) Alabama: 10-2 (6-2)*

(1) LSU: 10-2 (6-2)*

(3) Ole Miss: 9-3 (5-3)

(4) Arkansas: 7-5 (3-5)

(5) Auburn: 5-7 (2-6)

(6) Mississippi State: 3-9 (1-7)

* A two-way tie atop the SEC West between Alabama and LSU, with the winner of the November 7th Alabama v. LSU game in Tuscaloosa advancing to Atlanta to face the Florida Gators.

Rebel Roundup - 8/26/09

The Ghost of Jay Cutler — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 14:20:57 -0000

More photos » by Rogelio V. Solis - AP

Jevan Snead says "seriously, do you idiots want a tie or not? Submit to the contest."

Browse more photos »

Keep Submissions Coming
I know plenty more of you have something in mind for the Southern Proper/RCR contest but have not yet simply elucidated it. Just make sure to get them in soon. If we don't get enough submissions, nobody's getting a tie or a shirt--save for Juco. Tough shit.

Ole Miss stadium expansion pondered | Parrish Alford
With the never-before-seen clusterfuck that is buying an Ole Miss ticket right about now, Pete Boone has actually talked about possibly expanding Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. If we keep experiencing ticket sales like we are now, this is only to be expected. My suggestions would generally involve the removal of those horrible north endzone bleachers, allowing for the east and west sides to wrap around until they reach the PoweTron. Then, under the PoweTron, there could be some seating and a pavillion type thing as to not obstruct the screen.

Players Getting Healthy | David Brandt
Hardy, Lockett, Jason Jones, and Gerald Harris all should be fine in time for Memphis. Hardy, Lockett, and Jones all practiced yesterday.

For the Old-Fashioned Sports Columnist, It's Game Over | The New York Observer
This, along with something similar written by Spencer Hall, looks at the future of the Rick Clevelands of the world. With the omnipresence of the internet and it's incredible accessability, traditional print media is evolving. Some (Tim Brando's loud ass comes to mind) find this threatening, while others (David Brandt) have completely embraced it. As a bloggeur and general bane of the existence of frumpy old media types, I think it is important to delineate the difference between what I do and what the "mainstream media" does. First of all, I'm not a journalist. I have never claimed to be such. I am a fan with an opinion who, along with other folks of a similar ilk, runs a website through which our opinions are expressed. Second of all, all I have done is taken a new media form and used it to publicly broadcast and store my thoughts. Why that is so threatening, I'll never know. To those who are afraid that their media is dying in favor of our rogueish tomfoolery, I'd like to remind you that if people didn't enjoy the blogosphere, they wouldn't visit it. We may write something more on this later.

Assessing Ole Miss' top-10 credentials, point-by-point | Dr. Saturday
I've been looking forward to this piece for a while now. Matt "Dr. Saturday" Hinton has expressed his reservations about Ole Miss' chances this fall on numerous occasions over the last few months, albeit subtly. Finally, he has written a complete piece on what he feels it will take Ole Miss to win big this upcoming season. It is--as with all of his work--well written and fairly well researched. He concludes that Jevan Snead is a badass, Mike Oher will be missed, we'll make-do without Peria Jerry due to a deep defensive line, our defense should somewhat improve upon last season, and that, through our 2008 victory in the Swamp, we have proven that we can beat elite teams. He also concludes that the assumption that "(Ole Miss') overall talent level is higher than it's been in years" is "busted." I have some contention with this. I have always thought that Hinton relies too heavily on Rivals.com recruiting class rankings to ascern the talent level of any given team. I find this to be a highly flawed metric in that he is putting a ton of stock in rankings designed to determine the potential of a high school athlete to do well at the next level while looking very little into what they have actually done since arriving on campus. I know I've linked it before, but in Andy Staples' recruiting class "re-rankings," which are all based entirely on production in college, the Ole Miss 2006 recruiting class was ranked 7th. No, not 7th in the SEC. 7th in the nation. That class had some all-SEC and even all-American caliber guys like Greg Hardy, Dexter McCluster, Shay Hodge, and Daverin Geralds who contributed very little to the class' Rivals.com rankings.

Trust us, Matt. Ole Miss' overall talent level is higher than it's been in years. Don't let a bunch of yellow .gif stars fool you. Other than that difference in opinion, I thought it was an excellent look at our Rebels.

Finally, This'll Arouse You a Little

Comparing the Online Recruiting Ranking Services

Buck Bravo — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

Rivals, Scout, and ESPN all provide ranking systems for recruits headed to Division 1 football programs. Often, ratings of individual players will vary greatly from one service to another. In an attempt to determine which service most accurately projects the future performance of players, let's take a look at the ratings that were given to the 2009 NFL first round draft picks back when they were being recruited for college football:

PICK

NAME

COLLEGE

TEAM

RIVALS

STARS

SCOUT

STARS

ESPN

RATING

Matthew Stafford

Georgia

Jason Smith

Baylor

Tyson Jackson

LSU

Aaron Curry

OLB

Wake Forest

Mark Sanchez

USC

Andre Smith

Alabama

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Maryland

Virginia

Boston College

Texas Tech

Penn State

Georgia

Texas

Ohio State

OLB

USC

Northern Illinois

Kansas State

Tennessee

Missouri

Oklahoma State

California

Florida

Ole Miss

Ole Miss

Illinois

OLB

USC

Donald Brown

Connecticut

Louisville

North Carolina

Rutgers

Ohio State

Missouri

ESPN did not start ranking recruits until 2006, so players from before that time have no ranking. Despite this limitation, let's look at the trend lines for the different services:

While Scout may have had the most 5 star rankings for recruits who ultimately became first round NFL draft choices, Rivals had the best trendline for accurately ranking future NFL talent. A more comprehensive analysis looking at later rounds and previous years would best determine which service best analyzes talent. If I were retired or writing for TDG full time, I'd be eager to put such a report together for later this week. For now, the first round of the 2009 NFL draft will have to suffice.

An Interview with Sports Illustrated's Andy Staples

kleph — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 12:00:15 -0000

SI says, "Kool Aid tastes great!"

The Sports Illustrated College Football Preview issue hit the stands this week and that vaunted publication decided to put Ole Miss on the cover as the team to watch this season. Just like everyone else. Not only is Alabama two slots behind the Rebels on the magazine's Top 20 list, but they pick Ole Miss to win the SEC West and face Florida in the SEC Championship on Dec. 5.

As soon as I got wind of this I said there's somebody got some 'splainin to do. I picked up the phone and started screaming at every mid-level panjandrum in the American Management Association Building in New York I could reach until I found out who the bastard was responsible for this outrage!

Well... not exactly. What actually happened was their PR people sent us an e-mail out of the blue asking if we'd like to talk to the SI SEC writer to promote this issue of the magazine and we said, "sure."

So yesterday morning I gave Andy Staples a call and despite the fact he's on leave due to the recent birth of his son (and for that blessed occasion we extend our warmest congratulations to both he and his wife) he was more than willing to chat a bit and expand on the points he made about Alabama in the current issue of the magazine.

In addition, Andy took the time to ~~throw his SI colleagues under the bus~~ explain why Ole Miss is so popular in the polls, outline what he believes is the real balance of power in the SEC this season and detail how he thinks "The Process" is progressing in Tuscaloosa.

So, why do you hate Alabama so much?

What? I owe Alabama my life! My parents met in a class in Tuscaloosa. It was a math class and my mom had gotten an A on a test and my dad had gotten a D or an F and he looked over her shoulder and said "Can I study with you?" And that was how they met. I would not be here if it were not for the University of Alabama.

That’s pretty awesome.

My mom actually took a "Folk and Square Dancing" class with Kenny Stabler. Of course, from what she said, he wasn't in class very often.

Why is there all this Ole Miss love this pre-season?

Well, it’s got to be somebody. Actually if you are talking about the main rankings in the magazine, that’s a collective thing which is the result of a bunch of people on staff getting together to come up with the list. If you look at my first AP poll you’ll see those schools [in the SEC West] are actually a lot closer together. The fact is Ole Miss has a strong team. They lost Peria Jerry and Michael Oher, and that’s a lot to lose, but they are still bringing a lot of talent back this year.

And their schedule is really favorable particularly when compared to the other SEC schools … other than Florida who got the best draw of any SEC school I’ve seen in a year they are supposed to be good. Ole Miss does have to go to South Carolina and to Vanderbilt early but that’s about as tough as it gets before they get into the real meat of it. Potentially they could be meeting Alabama on Oct. 10 undefeated.

And part of it is novelty. It’s pretty unusual to have Ole Miss being seriously considered for a National Championship any year. When it’s LSU and Alabama, people are a lot more used to hearing about them.

Ole Miss has one of the premier QB's in the conference.

OK. What about Alabama? How much of our placement is due to what happened in January in the Sugar Bowl rather than what we are likely to put on the field next month?

I think people are looking at the Utah game and how the [offensive] line played and are thinking that’s how the line will play this year. And that’s just wrong. I was an offensive lineman myself and I can tell you, when you take out a guy that close to game time [Andre Smith's suspension] and you shuffle things around… there is not going to be any chemistry. Things are not going to go very well for you. Utah took advantage of that.

Now, even if you took those very same guys but after they have been through spring and fall practices, they would be a completely different unit. That line last year was so good. Antoine Caldwell, was such a leader, and Andre Smith was fantastic so with those guys gone, the big question in the minds of people is how will the line gel and work together? From what I’ve read, the line still remains in flux. So, yes, I think a lot of observers want to see that offensive line and how it comes together before bumping Alabama higher in the rankings.

How much of the uncertainty is due to previous years when we had substantially less depth to draw on when we lost such players?

I think there is that expectation that those players are not going to be there to fill in those positions whereas with Texas or USC you just expect there will be someone waiting to step in and perform at the same level. I think you will see that happen with Florida and Alabama in the next few years. This is where you should really start to see the effect of Nick Saban’s recruiting. Obviously you had some guys like Julio Jones and Don'ta Hightower and those guys who blossomed early. But the impact of those strong recruiting classes coming along as they are supposed to will start to be seen with this group this year.

Is there any way that Greg McElroy isn’t an upgrade from JPW?

Nobody knows. I’ve never seen a quarterback no more roundly criticized than Wilson but McElroy is an unknown quantity. From what I'm hearing, people are likely to be surprised by McElroy’s athleticism and ability to scramble when a play breaks down. Which is great for an offensive line that is trying to come together since it’s a little easier to protect a quarterback that can move around like that.

But nobody has seen how McElroy performs on the biggest stage. If this were USC or Texas, he’d be getting that benefit of the doubt. But because Alabama isn’t seen as having hit that stride in terms of depth the general perception is he’s got to prove himself. Obviously, he may answer every single question on Sept. 5 because, for an opening game it doesn’t get any bigger than what Alabama is playing.

So that makes the opening game with Virginia Tech that much more important?

But that could help as well. In Destin in May [at the annual SEC meetings], Nick Saban was discussing why he does certain things and from a recruiting aspect playing the feature game on opening night is big but, more than that even, a game like that to start the season dictates how your off season is going to go. That's what the team is striving for all of the off-season. All of those players know there is a BCS conference champion waiting to play them and they have to be ready for it. And I wonder… look at Florida, for example. They open against Charleston Southern. How do you get psyched up to face Charleston Southern?

The Rebels' schedule is remarkably favorable this season.

But Virginia Tech isn’t a conference game. Who is going to be our big test in the SEC?

You guys need to worry about LSU. I think LSU is going to be a lot better… a lot better. I think they have the potential, if they can put all the pieces together, to beat everybody. My post Spring top 25 I had them at No. 13 and now I’ve got them up to No. 9. I keep moving them up every time I talk to someone over there.

What has impressed you so much?

To start, they’ve got a pretty experienced offensive line. They have got the best returning back in the SEC with Charles Scott. Jordan Jefferson was a much better back at the end of the season than Jarrett Lee who was their downfall in a lot of games last year. Defensively they are going to be better as well. They’ve moved people around. They’ve got their defensive linemen this year that haven’t had a chance to really show what they can do.

Then they’ve got Chad Jones as their starting free safety which probably should have happened a year ago. Everyone keeps talking about Eric Berry as a Heisman Candidate but Jones is up there with him in terms of athletic ability. I love Eric Berry and the way he plays but Chad Jones could be that kind of guy at LSU.

They have got a lot of talent and guys that know how to put it together. Alabama fans should know that [Defensive Coordinator] John Chavis [formerly at Tennessee] can put a good defense together. Last year the book on these guys was they were very predictable and offenses knew exactly what they were going to do. Chavis’ whole MO is disguising where the pressure is going to come from, disguising the kind of coverage you are going to see.

So, how about the East? Is Florida the shoo-in for the SEC Championship that every seems to think they are?

One thing that is clear after last year is that everybody is beatable. There are no unbeatable teams anymore. An upper echelon SEC team can beat Florida, but it depends on the day. Most days, given the team they have right now, Florida will win those games. Sure, Florida probably has more talent than anyone else right now, at least more experienced talent, but that’s only part of the equation. Florida is likely going to face LSU, Alabama or Ole Miss in the SEC Championship and any of those three teams can beat them on a given day.

What about Georgia?

I think people are going to be stunned by Georgia this year. People don’t seem to appreciate the amount of injuries that squad suffered last year. They had an obscene number, something like 19 players, including a number of key players, for the season. Their second day of practice they lost their starting left tackle [Trinton Sturdivant] and their first game they lost a starting defensive tackle [Jeff Owens]. Nobody recovers from that kind of losses, I don’t care how deep you think your roster may be.

They are going to win ten games and [Georgia quarterback Joe] Cox is a lot like McElroy, he’s come from a great high school program then had to wait behind another guy for awhile so nobody knows what he can do yet. This really smacks of 2005 when people said they had lost all these great players and they were going to go into the tank and DJ Shockley comes in and leads them to an SEC Championship.

A host of starters are returning to Oxford this year.

So, basically, despite the popular perception of the pecking order, the SEC is pretty much a crap shoot this year?

Especially the West. Don’t forget there is a team out in Fayetteville, Arkansas that has the potential to beat anybody as well. So, it’s going to be crazy. It’s going to be a lot of fun but it’s going to be tough for a lot of people. You are going to see some SEC teams that came into the season with National Championship aspirations that lose two games. They might still have a chance at the conference title but they are going to be pretty much out of the conversation in terms of the BCS title.

Then what separates the "haves" and the "have nots" in the SEC?

Talent. I was there for Meyer’s first three seasons covering them for the Tampa Tribune and to look at them now compared to when they won that title in 2006… it’s not really a comparison. They have these true freshmen projected third stringers that could start for several other SEC teams. It’s just disgusting the level of talent they have got now. And Alabama seems to be doing the same kind of thing. It’s going to be very difficult for everybody else because it’s getting to the point that Florida, Alabama and LSU are the only teams that can pull this off and consistently stockpile talent to this degree.

What has impressed you most about Alabama’s recruiting?

That Alabama has done it quickly, perhaps more quickly than anybody thought they could. The way they came in and locked down the state was simply impressive. It was kind of a perfect situation with the 2008 recruiting class when you had one of the best years for talent that they’ve had in a long time in Alabama and then you had Nick Saban really hitting his stride as a recruiter after laying the groundwork with the year prior. When that happened they really let people know they were a force to be reckoned with and then this year they went and were able to get everyone important they needed to get in the state of Alabama and then went out of state for a couple of key players with elite talent they wanted.

How far away is Alabama being recognized for what they’ve achieved in terms of building depth?

If Alabama wins ten games this year, it will be assumed from now on that everyone that comes up to fill in slots on the roster are the same quality or even better. The perception is just not at that point yet. When you have a team where the third string guys are just as keen on getting playing time… that’s how you build what USC has now, what Texas has now. Florida, I think, is finally getting there.

What‘s the most immediate benefit of this largesse?

People forget that what [the new recruits] do on the practice field is way more important for the team than what they may contribute directly in a game situation. When a player comes on board that could conceivably start in a given position, then even the most established player ahead of them in the roster has to go "Whoo, I better work a little bit harder."

And there are too many questions concerning Alabama's offense.

Coach Saban has said the key to being a successful program is to "become a nightmare for your opponent." So what monster would you say this year's Alabama team is most like?

I just saw a History Channel documentary on the Twelve Labors of Hercules and so the Hydra is what comes to mind. If you cut one of the heads off, two more will grow back. And that’s a lot like Alabama’s defense. They have a lot of ways to really get at you. With that defense… it’s going to be awful hard to score on them.

How so?

First of all, thanks to Terrence Cody - and Brandon Deaderick, as well - it’s really hard to run up the middle. And that right there is the basic component of most people’s offense. And when someone tries go to the outside they’ve got Don'ta Hightower is sitting there. And so then if they try to go deep, Javier Arenas is out there waiting. That’s tough.

What is the solution?

There really is not a lot you can do so at some point you simply have to try and physically overpower them up front. And Florida did that at the SEC Championship last year, but there just aren’t many teams that can pull it off. That’s why LSU is going to be a really fun matchup to watch because LSU may have the horses to make it work. But right now we really don’t know. The big advantage of the Utah game is they probably learned their lesson. It’s not likely someone is going to get the chance to jump out in front of them again like that this season.

RBR would like to thank Andy for the interview although we must chastise his parents for having the good sense to attend the University of Alabama and then ruin it by letting their son go to the University of Florida.

Rebel Roundup - 8/3

The Ghost of Jay Cutler — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 13:06:05 -0000

More photos » by Rogelio V. Solis - AP

Look at all them zeros! Dayummmmm!

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Wow, It's August
Football is just a shade over four weeks away. We're almost there.

Falcons, first-round pick Jerry reach deal | AJC.com
Peria Jerry is richer-n-a-mawfukka after signing a five-year deal reported to be worth approximately $12million. If anybody's curious as to why Baby J is riding around Oxford in a brand new Cadillac, look no further than his big brother's new found wealth.

2009 SEC Preview: Ole Miss | Gate 21
From Gate 21, a well designed and written Tennessee Volunteers blog, comes the same old same old. "Ole Miss can't and won't win because they're Ole Miss; history isn't on their side; blablabla whatever." Y'all know my thoughts on this, but I figured the post was linkworthy anyway.

Chattanooga Times Free Press | Snead, Rebels aiming for Atlanta
Snead says he dreams of playing the Texas Longhorns in Pasadena. Read it.

Signee numbers will "work out" | Brandt
I wasn't worried in the first place. Our coaches--despite the wishful thinking of our in-conference foes--know what they're doing.

Hornsby Indicted on Assault Charge | ESPN.com
Good riddance. I'm all for second chances, but forget third chances. I don't even want to waste my time with a guy who hangs out at McDonalds in Starkville. Ever.

SEC 2009 // Rebellious Answers

cocknfire — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 05:36:18 -0000

More photos » by Butch Dill - AP

Can Red Cup Rebellion bring some clarity to our Ole Miss preview?

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Any school that boasts Houston Nutt as its head coach needs a blog with a unique point of view -- and that's certainly what we have here at SB Nation with Red Cup Rebellion, our Ole Miss blog. It's an entertaining view of everything going on in Oxford. RCR's Juco All-American took time to answer a few questions for Ole Miss week.

You might have noticed there's some talk out there that Ole Miss might have a decent season this year. How much of that are Ole Miss fans buying into? Is it a "wait-and-see" attitude, or a "pack your bags for Pasadena" attitude?

It depends on who you're talking to. A significant portion of our fan base has already chugged the "Atlanta or Bust" Kool Aid and will accept nothing less than an outright SEC West title. The other camp, as one would expect, is looking in the complete opposite direction with prognostications of four or five loss seasons and another early December spent in Oxford. I'd say both camps are justified in their attitudes. While this is the greatest chance we've ever had at representing the West in Atlanta, we are Ole Miss. Remember, it wasn't but two seasons ago when Ed Orgeron was "coaching" his teams to thrilling "victories" over Louisiana Tech and Northwestern State.

As always, there are some fans who are talking undefeated seasons. A few of those fans seem a little more reasonable now, but most fans are realistic. Our fans will be happy with nine or ten regular season wins. Less than that, and they're pissed. More, and Nutt gets another contract extension and a raise. We actually wrote an article that was picked up by CBSSports.about this situation.

Who worries you more in the SEC West: Alabama or LSU?

Alabama by a wide margin (or margarine if you don't understand the English language). LSU does not worry many of us at all. I have to admit that most of my worry comes from the fact that we beat LSU 31-13 last season while losing to Alabama. Unless John Chavis is just that good of a defensive coordinator, I wouldn't bet the farm on LSU. They were dominant over no in-conference foe last year, with their largest margin of victory over an SEC school coming in the form of a 34-24 victory over a horrible Mississippi State team. Their deceptively dominant Peach Bowl victory (Georgia Tech turned the ball over seven times while garnering only ten fewer offensive yards than the Bayou Bengals) is really all they are going on to build up their expectations. People are talking about Jordan Jefferson, but I'm not buying it yet. He was mediocre against us in a loss, lost to Arkansas (completing less than 50% of his passes against their porous secondary) and averaged 5.7 yards per attempt against Georgia Tech. In case you were wondering, that's worse than Tyson Lee AND Wesley Carroll did against GA Tech. Sure, LSU won that game is strong fashion, but it wasn't because of Jefferson. Charles "I only rushed for 10 yards on 10 carries against Ole Miss" Scott should continue to be an overrated back on an overrated team. Why isn't QB uncertainty as big a problem for Alabama as LSU? Because Alabama hits teams in the mouth with the running game, and they don't let up. They don't fall behind by enough that passing becomes essential, and when they do, they have Julio Jones. I'm not certain McElroy will be good, but I think it's safe to say he'll play better than Jefferson in 2009 since he won't be asked to do nearly as much. Alabama will have a stingy, almost air-tight defense. Scoring against Alabama will be like birthing a child: rare, painful, and messy. If the Rebels can get into the endzone early and force a turnover or two, then I like their chances against Alabama. Otherwise, Alabama's an "L."

Also, Alabama's coach is Nick Saban while LSU's is Les Miles. Miles is a buffoon. How do you win only 7 regular season games with the talent LSU had last season? Baffling.

Bigger loss: Michael Oher or Peria Jerry? Why?

It's hard to say. The loss of any All-American at any position is tough, and we lost two. On the defensive side, Peria Jerry absolutely took over the trenches at times. There were many games where he was simply unblockable. He is not the biggest, fastest, or strongest defensive tackle I have ever seen, but he is by far the hardest working. Jerry looked at every single one of his would-be blockers in a way which silently communicated, "look, friend, I'm gonna run right through you; do whatever you think you can to stop me, because you'll need it." His never-say-never attitude got him through the SEC and should provide him with a long, fruitful NFL career.

Michael Oher was as consistent a left tackle as Ole Miss has ever had. He frustrated his blockees by utilizing his great footwork and long, powerful arms. Jevan Snead was able to spend a little bit of time in the pocket and sustain many drives due to the excellent blocking ability of Oher.

Considering the aforementioned, if I had to choose who would be more greatly missed, I would say Oher, simply because his replacement has a whopping zero minutes of playing time at left tackle. Bradley Sowell, while possessing a legitimate, NFL-ready frame, isn't even half the lineman Oher was in terms of skill and experience. He could become acclimated to the game and become a good tackle, but I don't see him quickly, if ever, becoming a great tackle. At defensive tackle, Ole Miss will be utilizing a rotation of Ted Laurent, Lawon Scott, and Jerrell Powe -- all of whom have legitimate SEC playing time. While none of them will become the 300 pound skull cracking man-monster that Peria Jerry was, the three of them could be quite effective as a unit.

You might know that Houston Nutt has a reputation for being somewhat conservative on offense. Do you think that's fair, and do you see any sign he's going to give Jevan Snead the green light to let it rip this year?

Houston Nutt's reputation for being a conservative playcaller is quite fair. I saw plenty of games at Arkansas where Nutt would run on first, second, and usually third downs. When they didn't run on third down, they ran hooks to the first down marker. It's a very valid concern. However, the Houston Nutt that coached at Arkansas isn't the Houston Nutt who's coaching in Oxford. That's a bigger topic than I want to get into right now, but suffice it to say that he isn't afraid to spread the field now. I'm sure a lot of that has to do with having an incredible quarterback on the team, something he never had at Arkansas. However, a more pertinent answer is that offensive coordinator Kent Austin's hand is working at Ole Miss. Austin came from the CFL, where he coached the Saskatchewan Roughriders to the Gray Cup. Austin likes to throw the ball all over and is incredible at working to get receivers open in space.

But that doesn't answer the question fully. We still run the ball a ton. Why not? We have three reliable backs (four if you include do-it-all Dexter McCluster as a halfback). Ole Miss' bread and butter is the running game. Our MO is to swing hard in the first half, get up by a good bit, then ride out the second half. Against ULM, we threw twice in the second half and won 59-0. Why mess up a good thing?

So I guess my answer is that Nutt is still conservative. We're still going to run when we're up and trying to hold onto leads. However, when we need to throw, it's not something we're afraid to do. Jevan Snead is a great talent, but when the game was on the line with the ball in his hands at the beginning of last year, he floundered. It's when the pressure was alleviated, with the emergence of the running game, that Snead was able to flourish. If you'll watch replays of last year's games against LSU, Mississippi State, and Texas Tech -- games which saw Jevan Snead absolutely dominate -- you'll see the pro set, I-formation, shotgun with three and four receiver sets, and the single-wing triple-option (Wild Rebel) among many other arrangements. What Ole Miss runs is hardly the one-demensional rushing attack Houston Nutt is perceived to utilize. The unlikely convergence of an SEC head coach who has mastered rushing attacks, a former SEC QB and CFL star who is artful with the development of his passing game, and a total badass has made this Rebel offense the best one led by someone not named Manning.

Thanks to Juco-All American and be sure to visit Red Cup Rebellion for all your Ole Miss news and commentary.

MONDAY: Ole Miss Aspires to Old Heights
TUESDAY: Rebels Roll Call
WEDNESDAY: Gridiron U Preview
THURSDAY: Ole Miss Has a Quarterback, But Can They Protect Him?; The New Future of Ole Miss
LATER TODAY: Houston Nutt and the Expectations Game

SEC 2009 // Ole Miss Aspires to Old Heights

Year2 — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 10:00:12 -0000

TENTH IN A SERIES :: The 2008 Ole Miss Review

Hoddy Toddy, gosh almighty, what a year for the Rebels.

The early season was a bit disappointing, with a last-second loss at Wake Forest and a loss at home to Vanderbilt. No one thought that a week later they'd upset Florida (in the Swamp, no less), nor did anyone suspect they'd build on that by dropping their next two to South Carolina and Alabama (okay, maybe the Bama loss was expected).

The fall in Tuscaloosa would be the final for Ole Miss though, as the Rebels ran off six straight wins with an especially impressive final four: 59-0 over UL-M, 31-13 over LSU, 45-0 over hated Miss State in the Egg Bowl, and 47-34 over then-No.7 Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. It was enough to have Kirk Herbstreit pick Ole Miss as his preseason No. 5 team in his post-national title game rankings.

Ole Miss as this offseason's trendy team has raised a few eyebrows and caused some concern among the faithful. The Rebels haven't been a consistent national title contender in nearly 50 years, and yet here they are, expected by many to be right in the hunt. Houston Nutt did a remarkable job at turning the corner in the second half of 2008 which, when combined with the Florida win early in the season, makes as compelling a case for the legitimacy of those expectations.

Many things had to come together for last year's success to happen, from the transfer of Jevan Snead from Texas the year before to the concurrent down years of LSU, Auburn, and Arkansas. LSU and Arkansas will be better and Auburn might be, but Snead will still be around. First round NFL draft picks Michael Oher and Peria Jerry will not though, which has caused some concern for doubters. Greg Hardy's presence on defense should stabilize the line some, provided he finally puts together a full season of full effort.

Despite not having David Lee around on his staff, Nutt is still one of the Wildcat offensive series' biggest adherents and users. Dexter McCluster is about as dangerous as anyone from it, so expect to see him running it as much as ever. McCluster is also the headliner of a very nice set of skill position players around Snead, which also includes receiver Shay Hodge and running backs Brandon Bolden and Cordera Eason. Enrique Davis certainly has potential to be a playmaker if his light turns on too.

With a pillowy soft non-conference schedule (Two I-AA teams? And you thought a signing class of 37 was shameless) and neither Florida nor Georgia on the conference slate, the year certainly does look promising. Now, I know that the schedule making process was hung up by ESPN and there were talks with TCU before the Frogs cut them off, but really guys, at least find a Sun Belt team or one of the directional Michigan schools.

Anyway, things are looking up for the Team Speed Kills Team of the Year for 2008. I can't guarantee that the Rebels will win another national title, much less the SEC West even. However, Ole Miss one way or another figures to be one of the most compelling stories of the 2009 season. With the exception of the Eli Manning era, when's the last time anyone was saying that? Perhaps that fact alone might make the Ed Orgeron years worth it.

Maybe.

Previous Previews: Mississippi State, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina, Georgia, LSU.