SB Nation - Ted Laurent

Week Six Preview: #3 Alabama at #16 Ole Miss

outsidethesidelines — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 13:00:20 -0000

"Quit throwing so many picks!"

The Alabama v. Ole Miss series isn't one filled with hatred quite like the Auburn or Tennessee series, nor is it generally a series that has a high degree of relevance on the national level. Nevertheless, over the course of the past four years, no series anywhere in the country has produced as many gut-wrenching, nail-biting contests as what we've seen when the Tide took on Johnny Reb.

The past four games in this series have been decided by a grand total of thirteen points, and that statistic alone does not even begin to adequately describe how close things have been. The 2005 game ended on a time-expiring kick, while the 2006 game ended in overtime. The 2007 game was decided on a controversial penalty with seven seconds remaining, and last year's game also went into the final minute. And most shockingly of all, somehow, someway, all of those contests have fallen in our favor. How we've had the good fortune from the Football Gods to pull all of those games out, I'll never know.

After Ole Miss rallied late last year, this game has been marked for months as one of the games of the year. Of course, though, Johnny Reb effectively wet the bed in its only real test thus far in the 2009 season, and that has knocked a lot of the luster off this game. Ole Miss was clearly overrated as a top five team, and had no real business being ranked that high. That said, however, the Rebels are still a quality team and a very dangerous opponent. This game is likely to be yet another close one that goes down to the wire, so let's take a closer look at the match-ups:

Alabama Offense v. Ole Miss Defense

Even with a slow start in the passing game and some questionable early play-calling against a good Kentucky defense, Alabama nevertheless managed to rack up 38 points and 352 total yards in Lexington. The Alabama offensive juggernaut has seemed to slow with each and every game the past three weekends -- largely because the quality of the defense faced has increased each week -- and things won't get any easier this week when we go to Oxford.

The strength of the Ole Miss defense is clearly at the point of attack. The defensive end rotation of Greg Hardy, Kentrell Lockett, and Marcus Tillman is easily the best we'll see all year long, and while Hardy has not been able to get completely healthy -- and thus he's really no longer an every down player -- he's still a dangerous weapon when he is in the game. The ends are also solid on running downs, and mixed with the size of the interior players, it forms a very difficult run defense up front when these guys show up to play. Interior tackles Ted Laurent and Lawson Scott are both over 300 pounds, and the monster 340 pound Jerrell Powe is quickly starting to show why he was a five-star prospect coming out of high school. You can make all the reading jokes you want, but literacy isn't really a core competency for playing nose tackle, and Powe can at times dominate interior offensive linemen like he's a man among boys.

At linebacker Ole Miss has had more than their fair share of struggles since Patrick Willis went to the NFL, but they've got a solid group there now. The unit is led by Patrick Trahan, the senior linebacker that Houston Nutt signed out of the JUCO ranks in his first class in Oxford. Trahan started his collegiate career as a safety -- he was a former track athlete in high school -- but he kept getting bigger and bigger so he was moved to linebacker. The end result now is a 6'3, 225+ pound 'backer with great athleticism, and he's tough on opposing offenses. He's big enough to play the run, but also versatile enough to play the pass and rush the passer. He's a legitimate three-phase linebacker. Jonathon Cornell and Allen Walker start alongside Trahan, and while they aren't quite the caliber of Trahan, both are upperclassmen who are more than adequate.

The real surprise of the Ole Miss defense to date, however, has been the defensive backfield. Ole Miss was almost universally expected to struggle in the secondary this year, but surprisingly enough they have allowed very little success through the air. That said, however, we really don't know anything about this group because they have yet to face a decent passing attack, so it could be all a paper tiger for all we know, and if nothing else the Alabama passing game will be easily the best this unit has faced all year. What we can safely say is that so far this year Cassius Vaughn and Marshay Green have been solid at cornerback, Johnny Brown and Kendrick Lewis have been more active than usual at safety, and the back-ups have generally been pretty adequate. But, again, we really have no clue as to whether or not this Ole Miss defensive backfield is a contender or a pretender.

Looking at how we match up against Ole Miss, you really have to worry about our running game. We ran the ball well against Kentucky on the meaningful attempts -- i.e. factoring out the garbage time, clock-killing carries late -- but Arkansas still shut us down, and frankly this is easily the best defensive line we've seen all year. Ole Miss shut down our running game last year better than any other team on the schedule -- we had 31 carries for only 107 yards, averaging a meager 3.1 yards per carry -- and it's going to be very difficult to run on these guys again this year. These guys can flat out whip you in the trenches, and we're going to have to show up ready to play at a very high level if we look to move the football on the ground in Oxford.

Hopefully we will be able to take advantage of Ole Miss in a couple of areas. Their defensive line features a solid, deep rotation, but the linebacker corps is very thin. The starting three are good players, and back-up Lamar Brumfield is a solid, versatile player who can play all three positions. After that, though, all you really have is true freshman D.T. Shackelford -- an Alabama native who the Tide passed over last, so extra motivation there -- and while he has been a bit of a freshman sensation, he is also slowed by a high ankle sprain, and he likely won't play a lot against the Tide. So, it's a thin unit already, and both Trahan and Walker also play extensively on special teams, so hopefully we can wear them down and take advantage of their lack of depth. Likewise, the Ole Miss secondary is also a very small unit -- all starters are 5'11 and under, and three starters are 190 and under -- so hopefully we can really take advantage of the size match-ups with the likes of Julio Jones, Mike McCoy, Earl Alexander, and Michael Bowman.

Now, along those lines, I do like how our passing attack matches up against the Ole Miss secondary, but of course success there is predicated upon us being able to protect Greg McElroy against a very good pass rush. If we can give McElroy time, we should be able to move the football through the air. On the other hand, though, if Ole Miss can legitimately rush the passer, this is not going to be pretty. Either way, this isn't going to be an easy assignment for the Tide's offensive line. Ole Miss is tough off the edge, and Nutt will likely be aggressive in blitz packages, so the offensive line has its work cut out for them.

All in all, this one is a tough match-up for the Tide. Hopefully we can have some success running the football and block Ole Miss off the edge, but that's a lot easier said than done. Ole Miss will be tough to run on, and if they can get to McElroy, we're likely to find ourselves in Oxford with an offense that cannot run or throw effectively. It's going to be one heck of a fight, and we're going to have to play very well to move the football against this defense.

Alabama Defense v. Ole Miss Offense

The good news for Alabama is that this match-up favors the Tide a bit more. The Ole Miss offense is no slouch, to be sure, but it is a unit that has struggled early. Jevan Snead hasn't played anywhere near well enough to justify the preseason hype, the loss of Mike Wallace has hurt more than its gotten credit for, and there has been nothing close to a comparable replacement for Michael Oher.

Really, the struggles of this offense have started up front with the offensive line. The run blocking has been good at times, but has also been terrible at times, too. Smashes at the point of attack that spring good gains have been mixed with whiffs that result in tackles for loss. Pass protection, though, has really been the Achilles Heel of this group. Left tackle Bradley Sowell was beaten to a pulp against South Carolina, and right tackle John Jerry hasn't looked very good either. The interior linemen haven't played much better, either. Houston Nutt and company have rotated in a lot of linemen looking for the right mix, but they haven't found anything yet, and making matters worse this bunch simply looks out of shape. When John Jerry was literally begging to come out of the South Carolina game, all that came to mind for me was Mike Dubose, 2000, and the infamous "Pankcake Posse."

With the struggles up front, the rest of the offense just hasn't been able to compensate. Jevan Snead has been decent at times, but he has generally struggled to complete a high percentage of his passes and he has turned the football over a lot -- only a completion percentage of 51% and five interceptions. With Mike Wallace gone, the Rebels really do not have the big vertical threat in the passing game, and while the likes of Shay Hodge, Markeith Summers, Lionel Breaux, and Patrick Patterson form a solid wide receiver corps, they haven't been able to make up for the loss of Wallace. Likewise, Dexter McCluster is a threat, but he has really been more of a cog than a game-changer thus far in conference play.

The true strength of the Ole Miss offense to date has really been in the backfield with the tailbacks. Brandon Bolden has played as well as any back in the SEC to date, and at 5'11 and 220 pounds he is an absolute load. Back-ups Cordera Eason and Enrique Davis were both highly-touted recruits coming out of high school, and with their raw talent they form one of the most potent backfields in the country. Combined with Dexter McCluster's ability out of the Wildcat, this is a very dangerous group if their offensive line can give them any help up front.

Defensively for the Tide, I'll be brief on the overview because most RBR readers are more than well aware of who we are as a defensive unit, but I will address that the biggest issue we face here is exactly what we will do to replace Dont'a Hightower. Based on the practice reports, it's clear that Cory Reamer will be back at strongside linebacker this week, and we're going to have to be bigger inside to take on an Ole Miss team that will clearly look to be physical at the point of attack and establish the run. Chris Jordan is going to get a lot of playing time this week, and look for both Nico Johnson and Tana Patrick on the field -- even though playing will cost Patrick him a redshirt year.

As a whole, we are going to have a good bit different look defensively this week. Again, Ole Miss is the physical, run-based attack that we've come to expect out of Houston Nutt, and we are simply going to have to play smashmouth football against these guys. Simply put, if our defensive line doesn't show up with more energy and intensity than they did last week in Lexington, it's going to be a long afternoon. This isn't a spread passing attack where we'll constantly be in the nickel; you're going to see a lot of base 3-4 this week with safeties coming into the box to stop the run. The Rebs are far from pass happy.

And with that in mind, Injuries may make an impact on Ole Miss' power running attack. Fullback Andy Hartmann, a senior, is one hell of a lead-blocking load at 5'11 and almost 250 pounds, and he may be the best lead blocker in the conference. However, Hartmann sprained a knee a couple of weeks ago and has missed time. He missed practice on Tuesday, and while he is going to play on Saturday, we don't know how effective he can be and we do not know how much he will be able to play. Likewise, tight end Gerald Harris missed the South Carolina game with a hamstring injury, and while he did return against Vanderbilt, he's probably not 100%. Their back-ups, Dan Hoffman and Ferbia Allen, are a good 20-30 pounds lighter than the first-teamers, so if Hartmann and Harris are at less than 100%, that is going to make it more difficult for Ole Miss to run the football.

Furthermore, we need to use our depth in the defensive front seven to our advantage. Even with injuries to Hightower and Damien Square, plus the suspension of Jerrell Harris, we are still very deep in the front seven, and if the South Carolina game is any accurate indicator, the Ole Miss offensive line isn't in very good physical shape. We need to rotate players all afternoon and wear these guys down. Few things can better insure a 'Bama victory than to have John Jerry once again begging to come out of the game in the second half.

All in all, we're just going to have to line up against Ole Miss and be able to stop the run. That has to be priority #1 going into this game, period. Jevan Snead is overrated, but he can still be a threat, and with Nutt at the helm you have to be adequately prepared for every trick in the book. Nevertheless, those concerns are secondary to stopping the run. Given Snead's turnover issues to date -- which is to say nothing of Ole Miss' struggles in pass protection and the struggles of the receiving corps -- Nutt and company will likely play a bit conservatively here and try to establish the running game. If Ole Miss does that, they can move the football effectively and that will allow them to selectively use Snead and the trickeration to their advantage. On the other hand, though, if we can stop the run, particularly on early downs, we get Ole Miss in a lot of obvious passing situations, which limits the use of the Wildcat and other trick formations, and which also gives our defensive line numerous opportunities to take advantage of their struggles in pass protection and tee off on a quarterback who will be forced to take a lot of seven-step drops while waiting for routes to develop downfield.

Putting It All Together

On the whole, this one looks to be much like the last four contests in this series... a very hard, physical game that goes right down to the wire. Yes Alabama has looked very good to date, and yes Ole Miss wet the bed in their only true test to date. And, yes, Ole Miss was overrated coming into the year, no arguments here. Nevertheless, this is still a pretty good Ole Miss team, and they are a dangerous opponent that is more than capable of pulling off the upset.

Furthermore, the West is still absolutely wide open right now -- three teams are still undefeated, and Ole Miss still controls their own destiny -- and that fact mixed with Nutt's love of playing the underdog role, not to mention the recent acrimony that is surely present in the Ole Miss roster thanks to how this game has turned out the past four years, you can bet your life that Ole Miss will show up to play football on Saturday like men possessed. For all of the talk of Ole Miss wetting the bed, if Johnny Reb can pull off the upset on Saturday, they will quickly vault back into the top 10 and they will once again establish themselves as the front-runners in the SEC West if Florida can beat LSU, as expected. And, of course, rest assured they are well aware of those facts. Make no mistake about it, there is a lot on the line here for Ole Miss, and they will play accordingly. Do not expect Colonel Reb to lay an egg Saturday afternoon.

I do think we are the better team here. We have a tad more top-end talent, and a good bit better quality depth throughout the roster. Nevertheless, again, this is a dangerous Ole Miss team that actually matches up with us pretty well thanks to the strength of their defensive front seven and their ability to rush the passer with a base four-man rush. If you think victory is a near certainty in this game, you really need to drink something other than the crimson Kool-Aid. This should be a close game, and if we play like we did last week in Lexington, we're probably in a lot of trouble. We are a better team here who is justifiably a slight favorite, but nevertheless we are going to have to play really well to go into Oxford and get this victory, and at the very least victory is unlikely to come without one hell of a fight.

Hope for the best.

2009 SEC West Preview & Predictions

outsidethesidelines — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

In attempting to predict the SEC last year, I simply went through each member school's schedule and made definitive picks, game-by-game, and then compiled everything at the end to determine the overall standings and the division champions. For the 2009 season, however, I decided to scrap that format. As appealing as picking individual games can be simply because of its definitive nature, in many ways it is just a waste of time because there is just entirely too much random chance involved in each particular game, and on the whole it's far better to simply view the season in its entirety instead of trying to dissect its individual components from the outset.

To that end, this year I'm going to focus more on teams as a whole and make final predictions from there, thus omitting the individual game predictions. Moreover, unlike last year where I predicted the entire SEC, this year I'm going to focus only on the SEC West. My thought is that unless the terrorists successfully carry out jihad against Gainesville, the Gators are going to win the East by a mile, and frankly if you aren't a fan of one of the other five SEC Eastern Division members, who really cares what order they go in two through six? Thus, here goes my SEC West preview and predictions for 2009:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Coming into the season as the prohibitive favorites for the first time in ages, a quick look reveals why the prognosticators have been so high on the Tide. This is the most talented team we've seen in Tuscaloosa in ages, and the defensive side of the ball should probably be stronger than any defense the Tide has fielded since 1992. With the strength of the front seven -- a front seven that could legitimately feature three All-American candidates -- 'Bama should once again field an elite run defense. The loss of Rashad Johnson won't help things, but 'Bama led the SEC in conference play last year in pass efficiency defense, and by returning every other member of the two-deep rotation in the defensive backfield -- not to mention additions from Dre Kirkpatrick and Burton Scott -- a drop-off in performance is unlikely. Furthermore, things could even better, because for the first team since 2002, Alabama looks to have the pieces in place to at least be a solid pass rushing team, and even a solid, consistent pass rush would work wonders for the overall pass defense given the quality of defensive backs the Tide has.

The offense, too, has more than its fair share of strengths. Mike Johnson is one of the best guards in the country, and Colin Peek will be one of the conference's upper echelon tight ends if he can stay relatively healthy. Of course there is Julio Jones, already probably the greatest pure wide receiver in the history of Alabama football, but aside from him the rest of the receiving corps is deep with many talented playmakers in the fold. Likewise, the backfield is loaded with elite talent including the likes of Mark Ingram, Roy Upchurch, Trent Richardson, and others. And as an additional matter, quality depth on both sides of the ball is better than we have in years in Tuscaloosa.

With that glowing overview in mind, however, this is far from a flawless team. Greg McElroy has made tremendous amounts of progress in the past 18 months, and he has done effectively all that the coaching staff has asked him to do until this point. I think 'Bama fans can be as confident as can reasonably be expected with him under center, but until you step under center against a hostile defense in a real, live situation, frankly you can never really know what to expect. I think it's fair to say that the reasonable expectation for McElroy right now is that he will provide solid play at the quarterback position, but that is not to say anyone should be overly shocked if he suddenly turned into a liability.

The real concern, though, is the offensive line. The ideal situation for the Tide, of course, is to have the line mow over opponents like last year, dominating the game and turning McElroy into a game manager. Unfortunately, there's no such guarantee of that. The official depth chart will not be released until next week, but that notwithstanding, the starting five is this, going left to right: James Carpenter, Mike Johnson, William Vlachos, Barrett Jones, and Drew Davis. And I'll be frank, though quality depth is much improved, I think we should be a bit concerned with this group. Barrett Jones may play well at right guard (and I figure he is at least decent), but his presence is a major surprise, and we won't be able to give Drew Davis near the help from backs and tight ends that we did a year ago without having Andre Smith locking down the other side. Mike Johnson should do well again, but while James Carpenter and William Vlachos look to be solid players, a step down in performance from what we had a year ago at those positions is probably to be expected. As a whole, I don't think you have to worry about the line being bad -- far from it, I think the line should be pretty good -- but by the same token, I think we'll struggle somewhat in pass protection this year (as we did last year), and in the running game this line probably won't be able to consistently annihilate opponent's at the point of attack like it's predecessor did a year ago. That translates into putting more pressure on McElroy and forcing him to make more plays in the passing game, all of which could turn relatively easy wins into close games, and close wins into close losses.

Finally, special teams remains a legitimate concern for the Tide. Our coverage units should do really well simply because the great athletes we will be able to put on special teams, but the rest remains a concern. There is no doubting that Javier Arenas is an elite returner who will generate his fair share of big plays, but his decision making ability on punt returns is highly questionable at best, and many times last year he gave the opposition points on turnovers as a result of his poor decision making. Moreover, Leigh Tiffin will probably remain highly inconsistent at best (even when he is healthy), and frankly we do not want to see him trotting on the field with the game on the line. Likewise, he doesn't routinely get great distance and / or hang time on his kick-offs, another concern. Along those same lines, P.J. Fitzgerald at punter is a concern as well. He has slowly progressed and improved in his time at Alabama, but he's a small kid with an average-at-best leg, so he has most likely reached his peak. The smart money is clearly on yet another year in which Fitzgerald cannot produce great distance or hang time on his punts. As a result, despite some likely good coverage units and big plays from Javier Arenas, special teams isn't likely to be a strength for the Tide in 2009, and may in fact even be a liability.

Fortunately for Alabama the schedule does set up nicely. The opener against Virginia Tech will be a tough one -- and a loss there, at the very least, likely eliminates the Tide from BCS bowl contention (unless they can run the table from there) -- but a win there and it's relatively easily sledding until the road trip to Oxford the second week of October. Likewise, even after the Rebels, Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina, and UT-Chattanooga remain on the schedule, all four of which should be wins. An upset loss here and there wouldn't be a shock, but the defense and the coaching is good enough to guarantee at least nine wins barring either a complete meltdown by either McElroy, or a terrible run of injury luck.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Bobby Petrino's debut campaign in Fayetteville has about as many obstacles as expected, but things seemingly look much better for year two. It's clear that Petrino and company are still rebuilding the Razorbacks, but this is a much better squad than what we faced last year in Fayetteville, and all of those teams that got an easy win over the Hogs last year won't be so lucky in 2009.

The biggest single addition for Arkansas comes at the quarterback position. The Hogs spent most of last year with Casey and Nathan Dick at quarterback, and suffered the consquences thereof. Neither of the two were legitimate SEC caliber players, but all of that changes this year with the arrival of the gargantuan Ryan Mallett. A former five-star recruit from Texarkana, Mallett played as a freshman for Michigan before transferring to Fayetteville after the arrival of Rich Rodriguez. Mallett will start in 2009 for the Hogs, and in doing so he will not only be a major upgrade over both of the Dick sisters, but he'll have the strongest arm of any SEC quarterback. The reasonable expectation at this point is that Mallett will be one of the conference's top quarterbacks.

And, even aside from Mallett, there are a lot of other promising players at the skill positions for the Hogs. Tight end D.J. Williams is probably the best that the conference has to offer, and scatback Michael Smith -- who led the SEC in all purpose yardage last year -- is probably the best back you've never heard of. He's small, but he has great speed and agility, he's surprisingly effective as an inside returner, and he's much more durable than you would expect given his small frame. Likewise, with Dennis Johnson, De'Anthony Curtis, Broderick Green, and Ronnie Wingo rounding out the rest of the backfield, it's a highly talented group. Moreover, while the wide receiver corps doesn't really feature any truly great playmaker, it's a deep, solid group of guys who have shown that they can get the job done.

The real concern on the offensive side of the ball is the line. Three starters return from a year ago, and a fourth starter (Mitch Petrus) is actually a player who started in 2007. Unfortunately for the Hogs, though, All-American center Jonathon Luigs is gone, and in general the returning starters are the ones who were weak links a year ago. The tackles, in particular, Ray Dominguez and DeMarcus Love, have struggled with edge rushers, and if anything both of those guys probably should be playing inside at guard. All in all, it's just a bit of a concern for the Hogs. If these guys can consistently keep Mallett upright, the Hogs look to have a very potent offense, and one that could give even the best defenses legitimate trouble. On the other hand, a struggling offensive line will almost certainly slow what must be the unit that carries the Hogs to victory in 2009.

The defense, too, remains a major concern. The Hogs struggled defensively in 2007, and were even worse last year. In 2008 they were dead last in the conference in run defense, and the pass defense wasn't much better. Some steps may be made in the right direction in 2009 -- a couple of JUCO transfers in the defensive backfield should help, plus most of the defensive line returns -- but they still have a lot of issues, and it's unlikely that the Hogs will be able to move out of the cellar in most defensive categories in 2009.

All in all, the Hogs are a team that is clearly moving in the right direction, and they will be a dangerous team in 2009. Last year they knocked off LSU, Auburn, and almost beat Ole Miss. Rest assured they will get a couple of big-name upsets this year as well. Though sheer strength of schedule will dictate a few more roadblocks for the Hogs in 2009 -- five teams on their schedule are currently ranked in the AP top 15 -- this is a dangerous team, and one that could really surprise a lot of people if the defense can show some signs of life.

Auburn Tigers

Following their worst season in a decade, Auburn made a different kind of splash hire by bringing in former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik. Though near suicidal upon first hearing the news, most Auburn fans are now predictably bathing in the Kool-Aid, but looking at the Tigers in an objective light reveals that their fan base probably had it right to start with. On the whole, it's nearly impossible to believe their fall from grace in recent years. After going a combined 34-5 from 2004-2006, Auburn now finds itself with scholarship levels reminiscent of a program undergoing major NCAA sanctions, and possessing a depth chart paper thin in terms of both elite talent and quality depth. Things are so bad that almost any true freshman -- though they came from a highly unimpressive recruiting class -- healthy enough to play will be required do so in 2009, and a few walk-ons will be expected to contribute as well. From the outset, the mere fact that the athletic director is publicly trying to cool expectations for the program for the next couple of years ought to tell you all you need to know about their future prospects.

Chris Todd surprised many when he won the starting quarterback job all of a week into Fall camp, but despite a surgically repaired throwing shoulder, Todd's starting job probably has more to do with the shortcomings of the other candidates than it does his own skills. Neil Caudle is a bust now, as is Kodi Burns, and they are going to try to run some Wildcat-type stuff with Burns at the helm. But, of course, no one really knows what to expect of the newfangled Auburn offense. It's going to be a spread offense, but apparently one that is run-heavy, and it's also going to be a hurry-up offense to boot. And yes that's a major break from offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn's track record, and yes they are going to run some Wildcat as well. So, no, I don't have any clue as to what they are going to do, and frankly I doubt anyone else does either.

And, truth be told, it probably doesn't matter one way or the other regardless of what they do. Todd is likely to be a below average quarterback, and the offensive line looks to struggle. Lee Ziemba and Ryan Pugh look good (when healthy), but the rest of the line looks to be in major trouble. Byron Isom, Mike Berry, and Andrew McCain are nothing special, and the depth on this unit is ridiculously thin. A kid like Chris Capps would easily see playing time with this group. And making matters worse, there is zero proven depth at wide receiver. About the only good thing you can say about this offense is that the tailbacks look to be a solid group. On the whole, though, given the overall lack of depth, good quarterback play, and game-changers at the skill positions, this offense looks to struggle regardless of what type of offensive system they implement, which is exactly the reason I'm not going to waste any time here trying to predict exactly what they are going to do offensively. Again, wishbone, run and shoot, whatever, the end result is almost certainly the same.

On defense, too, Auburn has a lot of problems. Last year's group was strong one hindered only by an incompetent defense, but a lot has changed since then. Guys like Trey Blackmon and Jerraud Powers left early, and what is left is largely a shell of what once was. The entire group is thin as a whole, and outside of Josh Bynes and Antonio Coleman, it's hard to identify many defenders who are clearly above average at this point. Mike McNeil is a fine player at safety, but he broke a leg in Spring practice, and at this point it looks like he is going to miss a few weeks of the season at least. Eltoro Freeman is a JUCO transfer who could really help out and be an impact player, but he has missed time this Fall with both an arm injury and a leg injury. All in all, much like the offense, the defense features very few top-end players, and almost no quality depth whatsoever.

On the whole, Auburn has a fairly decent starting 22, but considering modern day college football is a game that needs 50-55 good, solid contributors in order to play at a high level, that doesn't do them much good. Again, quality depth is the name of the game in football, and Auburn possesses almost none of that precious commodity. The schedule isn't easy in 2009, either, and frankly only Furman and Ball State are guaranteed wins. Of course Auburn will get more wins than that, I'm sure, but the point remains that wins likely won't come frequently for the '09 Tigers, and the few that do will likely be the result of some very close, hard fought contests. Much like last year, Auburn expects to be fighting tooth and nail with Mississippi State for last place in the SEC West.

LSU Tigers

After a disappointing 2008 campaign, the Bayou Bengal faithful hopes for improvement in 2009, and in all fairness they probably should get it. Jordan Jefferson, at the least, shouldn't be quite as disastrous as Jarrett Lee was a year ago, and while John Chavis is not a spectacular hire at defensive coordinator -- and in fact one I don't like in the long run -- he's an upgrade over what they had a year ago. As a result,

At quarterback the job belongs all to Jordan Jefferson now, and we'll have to see what he has made of. The LSU Hype Machine naturally has him as a superstar in the works, but a more objective view reveals more question marks and uncertainty. He played decent football last year -- relative to what Jarrett Lee did anyway -- but nevertheless he struggled to complete passes, and he took a ton of sacks thanks to his poor decision-making abilities. Based on what Jefferson has shown us, he looks to be a solid player eventually, but he still has a lot to prove, and all of these purple and gold notions just assuming that it's only a matter of time before he becomes a star quarterback are really just wishful thinking more than anything else. For now, what we can reasonably say about Jefferson is that he has a nice physical skill set with good long-term upside, and that if the LSU coaching staff uses him wisely, he might not be a top-end player this year but he will at least provide solid play and not turn the LSU offense into a trainwreck like Jarrett Lee did a year ago.

The rest of the skill positions are generally in good shape in Baton Rouge. Brandon LaFell will be one of the conference's top receivers, and likewise Richard Dickson will be one of the conference's top tight ends. Charles Scott is one of the conference's better tailbacks, and there is a lot of depth in the backfield with Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy, and incoming freshman Mike Ford. Likewise, while I don't think Russell Shephard will ever be an above average quarterback in this league, he's clearly an elite athlete, and I'm sure the LSU coaching staff will find some ways to take advantage of that this year. The only real concern at the skill positions is a lack of experienced depth, but the Tigers have recruited extremely well, and tremendous amounts of raw talent and athleticism are everywhere, so they should likely be fine even though they are not particularly experienced. Besides, experience at the skill positions tends to be a bit overrated, and in any event the Tigers aren't likely to face a legitimate test until the fifth week of the season when they go on the road to face Georgia, so again lack of experience shouldn't be a major concern.

The real concern with LSU's offense in many ways, much like Alabama, is with the offensive line. Jefferson is still green and ideally the coaching staff would be able to use a highly successful running game to take pressure off of him, but again there is no guarantee that will happen. Ciron Black is clearly the best tackle in the conference now, and Joseph Barksdale is more than adequate at right tackle. However, the interior linemen aren't necessariliy strengths. Gone are left guard Herman Johnson and center Brett Helms -- both punishing blockers in the running game -- and while Lyle Hitt returns at right guard, I've always considered him to be the weak link of the line. Making matters worse, T-Bob Hebert was expected to start at center after the departure of Helms, but he has been banged up in Fall camp, and that too is in question now. Moreover, this is a young line that probably doesn't have as much depth as you would at first imagine. The bottom line is that center / guard play of the interior linemen is exponentially important to the success of the running game, and if LSU has trouble here -- regardless of their strengths at the tackle position -- the running game will suffer, and more pressure will be put on Jefferson to make plays on his own. Again, as was the case with Alabama and Greg McElroy, that could very well result in more mistakes from the quarterback position, which can easily turn relatively easy wins into nailbiters, and close wins into close losses.

Defensively, the Bayou Bengals look to rebound from its worst showing in years in 2008. Truth be told, though, the LSU defense a year ago was a tale of two stories... a really good run defense, mixed with a really bad pass defense. And the bad news for the Tigers is that the cornerstones of the run defense -- the defensive line and linebacker Derry Beckwith -- have all moved on to the next level, so there are legitimate question marks there. Most of the defensive backfield returns, but again it is returning a unit that couldn't stop the pass, despite the fact that they were constantly helped by a good pass rush. Nevertheless, LSU has boatloads of talent all over the defense, and the real question is just whether or not they can take full advantage of it. They couldn't do that a year ago and struggled, but it will take an equally bad showing by both coaches and players to get a repeat performance of that poor effort in 2009.

All in all, LSU is a difficult projection, easily the most difficult of the entire SEC, and perhaps even the country. You still have questions at quarterback, and the running game may not go as smoothly as many assume. Furthermore, while the talent is there on the defensive side of the ball, and while John Chavis is an upgrade over Peveto and Mallory, he himself on occasion did field some bad defenses in Knoxville despite having loads of elite talent up on ol' Rocky Top. Plus, each and every year since arriving in Baton Rouge, Les Miles and company have lost games to some not so impressive teams that they should have easily won, and that will likely continue in 2009. On the other hand, LSU is easily still one of the nationally elite programs in terms of raw talent and athleticism, and the schedule once again is doing them a huge favor. Their athletic department continued a commitment to cupcakes approach to non-conference scheduling in 2009 -- getting 0-12 Washington, mixed in with Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Tulane -- and that combined with the luck of drawing the likely three worst SEC teams (Auburn, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt) means that they could play very poorly and still easily sleepwalk to seven wins. As I said two weeks ago, if I had to give all the possible outcomes, I'd say LSU could go anywhere from 7-5 to 11-1, and I'd give them a 20% chance of each individual outcome. Exactly where will they end up along that spectrum? It'll probably come down to the same two things it did a year ago: coaching and quarterback play, but trying to predict exactly where cannot be anything more than a pure guess at this point. Only with ignorance could you be particularly certain of that prediction at this point.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

After showing some signs of life for almost the first time in a decade, the Bulldogs came crashing back down in 2008, and the struggles brought a new regime to Mississippi State. Out is Sylvester Croom, and for the first time in almost 20 years a non-Alabama alum is roaming the sidelines in Starkville, as Dan Mullen takes over for the Bullies. And in all fairness to MSU, it's not a bad hire. Mullen is a young, energetic coach who is on the rise, and one who already has a couple of national championship rings on his resume. His hire may very well have been better than either Lane Kiffin or Gene Chizik.

That notwithstanding, though, it looks to be a very harsh reality for the Bulldogs in 2009. Mullen may have been hired because of his offensive background, but it's hard to see him breathing any life into this offense in 2009. It's been hapless for years, and with the 5'10 and 195 pound Tyson Lee leading the offense this year, it's hard to see that changing. It will probably be a major shock if he can withstand a year's worth of pounding in the SEC, and even if he can he's not likely to be very effective anyway. True freshman Tyler Russell is the quarterback of the future in any event, and his reign will likely begin sometime this year in Starkville. That's good news in one sense because Russell is a much more talented player than Lee, and he's a bitter fit for Mullen's spread option system, but I'll let you do the math on the success true freshmen quarterbacks have in this league while surrounded by poor supporting casts.

And speaking of that poor supporting cast, I think that's probably the nicest way to put it. The wide receiver corps has some problems, to put it mildly. Brandon McRae is a fine wide receiver, but who knows how he will rebound from the gruesome, Prothro-esque broken leg he suffered last year against Ole Miss? And aside from McRae, there really are no proven commodities. JUCO transfer Leon Berry will be counted on heavily, and from there true freshmen like Chad Bumphis will get a great chance at playing time. Mullen's spread needs a lot of quality receivers, and the Bulldogs just don't have it right now. Likewise, the offensive line doesn't look very good either. To be sure, most of the starters return from a year ago, but MSU has struggled in the trenches for ages now, and the physical brand of football that the Dawgs often played with under Croom will do them no good under Mullen. How will the MSU linemen handle the transition to the spread option? It's anyone's guess, but nearly everyone will be surprised if they do it with any considerable degree of success.

Probably the best player State has, period, is tailback Anthony Dixon, but even with him you have to worry. He's a big, powerful running back who gets the job done between the tackles. Now, one of you readers, remind me... how successful has Urban Meyer been with big, powerful, between the tackle running backs? His only success with them has been signing them, and then watching them flame out as recruiting busts. His offense has no real need for such a player, and Mullen's might not at MSU either. I'm sure he'll try to work Dixon into the mix as much as possible just because he's one of the few talented players he has, but at the end of the day the point remains that Dixon is built to run out of the I-formation and in between the tackles, not as the centerpiece of the spread option. Look for Christian Ducre to get more of a role there simply because he's a better fit for the scheme.

And the defense is probably in just as bad of shape as the offense. Defense was the strong point of the Croom teams, but only three starters are returning in 2009. The defensive line is both small and without any great amount of depth, so much so that when JUCO transfer Pernell McPhee -- a good player in his own right, in all fairness -- stepped on campus, he probably became State's top lineman almost instantaneously. That's good news for State, but the bad news is that he'll likely have to be a truly dominant player just to give the rest of the line a fighting chance. Likewise, the defensive secondary is effectively a complete makeover. Marcus Washington returns at cornerback, and Damein Anderson looks to start opposite him, with Derek Pegues gone, the rest of the Bulldog secondary seemingly either lacks the size or speed (or both) needed to be high-end defensive backs in this conference. Last year's defensive backfield was a good unit for the Dawgs, but it'd be a major surprise if this revamped unit could pull off the trick again this year.

The only good news for the Dawgs on defense comes at linebacker. If Jamar Chaney successfully returns from his leg injury, he'll be a top end player, and perhaps the most underrated defensive player in the entire conference. Aside from Chaney, both K.J. Wright and Chris White are solid players in their own right, and if this unit can stay healthy, it has a chance to be a good one. Unfortunately, the rest of the defense looks to struggle so much in front of them and behind them that it probably won't give them much of a chance to shine.

As I've said before, I've always had a soft spot for the traditionally hapless Bullies, and I like Dan Mullen to boot, but objectively speaking it looks to be a long year ahead for them. They'll start off with a good fluff win over Jackson State, but from there the schedule is brutal. They will almost certainly be underdogs in every single conference game, Georgia Tech will go through them like a hot knife through butter, and even Houston and Middle Tennessee State probably aren't sure wins.

Ole Miss Rebels

The media darlings of the SEC this year, Ole Miss made a big jump last year, and many in the national media are betting that they will make yet another big jump in 2009. Yet, interestingly enough, they were picked to finish third in their own division at SEC Media Days. And that brings me to a point that I keep coming across... the further away you get from the Ole Miss program, the more heightened the expectations are for the 2009 season. The closer you get to it, the lower the expectations get. Personally, I think that is because the people who follow the program on a closer level than the national pundits are able to spot some flaws and weaknesses that the national pundits are apparently overlooking in their rush to deify the Rebels as the next big thing.

And make no mistake about it, despite the hype in some circles, this team does have a lot of holes and a lot of concerns. Jevan Snead is a fine quarterback, and the backfield is generally loaded, but the offensive line looks to be a major concern. The loss of Michael Oher cannot be overstated, simply because he was an elite talent and because the Rebels do not have anywhere even near his level of ability now that can replace him. Many hoped Bobby Massie would be able to do that, but after arriving in Oxford only about three weeks back, that is highly unlikely. And making matters worse, both starting guards are gone as well, and frankly the replacements don't look to be anything overly special. Of the remaining linemen, only John Jerry looks to be one of the best in his conference at his position, and the rest of the starting five have more of the look of a below average line than anything else. It's basically the exact same problem Alabama has, only that the Rebels don't have anywhere near the number of talented players to fill the holes.

A lesser concern on the offensive side of the ball can also be found at wide receiver. With Mike Wallace gone to the NFL, only Shay Hodges remains in Oxford. Hodges is a fine player in his own right, but from there things get dicy. Dexter McCluster will assume the role of a full-time starter now in Wallace's absence, and while McCluster certainly has the talent, he thrived last year in a jack of all trades role, and no one knows how he will do as more of a traditional, full-time wide receiver. And after McCluster, the proven commodities are pretty non-existent. Players like Lionel Breaux and Markeith Summers aren't necessarily bad players, but by the same token they aren't the ultra-elite athletes that you find at a place like LSU where you can almost just assume that you can plug and play them and they will perform at a high level. The Rebels are probably going to have to rely heavily on true freshman Pat Patterson.

And the defensive side of the ball has more concerns than the offense. Peria Jerry was the key to Ole Miss' stout run defense last year, and he is now with the Atlanta Falcons, and just like with Michael Oher, the Rebels do not seem to have a player of comparable quality to replace him. Ted Laurent and Lawson Scott will play a lot inside, but I really don't think they would play for any other SEC contender, and for all of his recruiting hype and academic saga, Jerrell Powe has done nothing of note to this point. Likewise, at linebacker, it's a thin unit with no true star players. It's not exactly what you what you dream of having when you prepare for a tough run through an SEC schedule.

Defensive end is a clear strength, and if Greg Hardy finally gets things together, he along with Marcus Tillman and Kentrell Lockett will probably form the best defensive end rotation in the SEC. Unfortunately, that strength is off-set by more concerns in the secondary. They really struggled against the pass last year -- despite having the conference's best pass rush -- and while three starters return, none of those returning players seem to be particularly good. More struggles against the pass seem likely for 2009. Moreover, Houston Nutt's two major recruiting additions to the defensive backfield have already flamed out. Jamar Horsnby, the five-star who washed out of Florida after being caught using a dead woman's credit card, has been kicked off the team after yet another run-in with the law. His next stop will likely be jail. And speaking of jail, the other big recruiting addition to the defensive backfield for Nutt in 2009, Tig Barksdale, also spent some time there recently after being arrested on charges of DUI and driving without a license. Now, Barksdale will not enroll this Fall as a result of "medical issues."

So what do you have when you put it all together with the Rebels? You've got a good quarterback, a good backfield, a couple of good receivers, and a great pass rush. But you've also got major concerns with the offensive line, a middling linebacker corps, a suspect interior to the defensive line, a secondary that will likely struggle again, and a team with very little depth at almost every single position. And your head coach has disappointed almost every single time high preseason expectations have been placed upon his teams. Does that sound like a championship team to you? I'll let you be the judge of that.

Of course, this is not to overly denigrate the Rebels. They went 9-4 a year ago, and they have enough strengths to knock off almost anyone they face on any given day. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them knock off either Alabama or LSU, or both for that matter. However, before we deify the Rebels, it should be kept in mind that they have enough weaknesses to where they could just as easily lose those big games, and also lose some that they are expected to win. When everyone looks back on the 2008 Rebels, they love to remember them as the team that beat Florida in the Swamp, the team that blew out LSU, and the team that spanked Texas Tech. Yet the fact that they lost at home to Vanderbilt, lost at home to South Carolina, lost to Wake Forest, and needed a squeaker to hold off 5-7 Arkansas gets completely overlooked. Bottom line, the Rebels have enough strengths to win a lot of games and get some big wins, but they also have enough weaknesses to where they are also likely to lose some games they should not, and once again, just like last year, be left outside the championship chase.

Final SEC West Predictions

(1) Alabama: 10-2 (6-2)*

(1) LSU: 10-2 (6-2)*

(3) Ole Miss: 9-3 (5-3)

(4) Arkansas: 7-5 (3-5)

(5) Auburn: 5-7 (2-6)

(6) Mississippi State: 3-9 (1-7)

* A two-way tie atop the SEC West between Alabama and LSU, with the winner of the November 7th Alabama v. LSU game in Tuscaloosa advancing to Atlanta to face the Florida Gators.

SEC West Pre-Season Breakdown

Richard Pittman — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 11:49:13 -0000

The first goal of the season for LSU this year is to win the SEC West. The task will not be at all easy. There are good teams in this division, and while Alabama and Ole Miss have gotten a lot of attention, I believe Arkansas and Auburn will probably be dangerous opponents as well. Arkansas moreso than Auburn, but don't mark a check in the W column for our game against Auburn yet.

Anyway, here is a brief breakdown of how I see our opponents in the SEC West, the obstacles they have in front of them and their strengths as we all are preparing to start another big season in the SEC.

Alabama: The defensive front seven should be outstanding, probably the best in the conference. They will make tons of plays and be in the backfield much of the night. The secondary struggled towards the end of last year, and the loss of Rashad Johnson at free safety is a significant blow. If there was one position on the defense that Alabama fans considered to perhaps be below par last year, it was cornerback, and some are expecting true freshman Dre Kirkpatrick to come in and be an immediate upgrade. I always find claims that a true freshman can come into a top program and immediately become a key player at a tough position somewhat dubious, but we shall see.

On offense, the big questions are how will Alabama replace John Parker Wilson at quarterback, and how will the offensive line perform? Junior Greg McElroy will be a more-than-adequate replacement for Wilson, who frankly wasn't that good. The real concern, though, is at offensive line. No team has to replace more of its offensive line skill than Alabama. Everyone knows about the loss of All-American left tackle Andre Smith, but the Crimson Tide lost two other starters on the offensive line as well, including All-Conference center Antoine Caldwell, who was the leader of the group. If you can't block effectively, you can't do much of anything on offense. If they get the blocking, the running backs should be about as good as last year, but they continue to struggle to find receiver depth behind Julio Jones.

Bama is probably the toughest competition in the West. I think they have questions like a bunch of other teams, but unless the offensive line is a disaster or injuries devastate their team, they will be a very tough opponent again this year.

Arkansas: I find this team pretty scary. It's not just that they beat us last year, though that certainly affects things. It's the fact that they have good players at a lot of positions. Running back Michael Smith may be pocket-sized, and needs to cut down his carries if he hopes to stay healthy, but he is perhaps the most dangerous back in the conference. Arkansas's receiver corps, led by TE/WR hybrid DJ Williams is as good as anyone's in the conference. Bobby Petrino is an outstanding offensive coach, and if Ryan Mallett is as good as advertised, this Arkansas team will put up some offensive fireworks.

The defense has a long way to go. There are some good players on this defense, but it was a unit that ranked dead last in run defense last year, and 10th in pass defense. To make matters worse, one of their expected starting corners is lost for the season to a torn ACL. The defense will need to play much better than it did last year, but they were very young in 2008. You can expect some natural improvement between the seasons.

The short story here is that I think of Arkansas this year pretty much exactly what I thought of Ole Miss last year: not talented enough to run with the big boys but with enough good players at key positions to be dangerous. Do you remember how that turned out for Ole Miss? The schedule is awfully difficult for this team though, as they travel to LSU, Bama, Ole Miss, and Florida, and also have to play Georgia. They play every team in the SEC that is expected to be good, and get 4 of them on the road. That's brutal.

Auburn: Last year was a train wreck, leading to a mid-season coordinator firing and then a post-season head coach-firing, and a second train wreck when a new coach was hired. The offense was awful in 2008, ranking 2nd to last in points per game. Auburn went and added a couple nice receivers on signing day, but for the most part the personnel is going to be the same on that side of the ball. Chris Todd will be the starting QB again. Much of last year's starting offensive line returns. They just hope that Gus Malzahn can get more out of these same players than Tony Franklin and his successor were able to get. That's actually a pretty tenable position.

Defensively, Auburn had a pretty solid group last year, but they have a fair bit to replace, especially in the middle of the field, as Auburn loses its two best defensive tackles and its middle linebacker. I think this year will be a struggle for Auburn, but if Chizik is at all up to the job (no guarantees there), I think they should be able to win a couple conference games and maybe sneak into a bowl game. An upset of a better-regarded team is not out of the question. But then again, a 4-win season is not out of the question either.

Mississippi State: Has disaster written all over it. The Bulldogs were the worst offensive team last year, scoring only 15 points per game, and were one of the worst defensive teams last year as well. It is hard to name one particularly dangerous offensive player. Senior running back Anthony Dixon is entering his 4th year as MSU's primary running back, but has a pretty pedestrian average of 3.98 ypc over the course of his career. He's also never really had a very good offensive line, but nothing should change there. He also enters the season with an off-season DUI under his belt and may be suspended for the first game or two.

Add in that the Bulldogs do not have an outstanding quarterback and are trying to transition from a power running game to a spread under new coach Dan Mullen, all without really having the wide receivers to run it yet, and you have the makings of a poor offensive season as they transition to the Mullen system that was so successful in Florida.

Defensively, the Bulldogs should be respectable as always. Last year's poor stats are deceptive, because so much of the blame rests with an offense that could not keep the defense off the field, but they lose a good number of starters from last year's unit. The strength of the team is in the linebackers, where Jamar Chaney and K.J. Wright are arguably the best players on the team regardless of position. The secondary should be a nightmare, however.

Ole Miss: They still have one of the best QBs in the conference, and a very good set of wide receivers, but I wonder if the overall talent level is all that high. I think Ole Miss snuck up on some teams last year and caught LSU in a down year, but they won't be able to use that formula for success this year. Jevan Snead, Dexter McCluster, and Shay Hodge form a great nucleus for a passing team, but the offensive line has to be completely rebuilt, and no running back on the team is particularly scary. I'm sure the Red Cup Rebellion guys will love hearing that.

Defensively, the front 4 is very good if healthy. Greg Hardy may be the best defensive lineman in the conference if he can ever get his foot completely healed, and he's actually pretty effective in a limited role even when he's not healthy. Kentrell Lockett and Marcus Tillman round out a very good 3-end rotation, and Ted Laurent is a solid veteran defensive tackle. They will be counting on Jerrell Powe to build on his solid freshman campaign. Behind the defensive line is a lot of question marks. Ole Miss had the worst passing defense in the conference on a "per game" basis, though the overall defense was solid, and they managed to stop the high-powered Texas Tech offense in their bowl game. Looking through their roster, it is hard to pick out a linebacker or defensive back who looks like a difference-maker.

Ole Miss has the easiest rout to Atlanta of any of the most-discussed contenders. They miss Georgia and Florida and they get Bama and LSU at home. They could potentially lose one of those two games and still win the West outright if they don't stumble against a lesser opponent.

Of course, we're going to have to see how all of this shakes out. Every team, even the good ones, have questions and areas of concern, including us. Also, injuries can derail anyone's season, including ours. Upsets are also possible, each and every week. I think we have as good of a shot at winning the west as anyone, except that our tough schedule looms large.

Previewing Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss: Defensive Line

Seth C — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 18:00:08 -0000

DEFENSIVE LINE

Player	Ht/Wt	Class	Position	Tackles	TFL	Sacks
Brandon Williams	6'5"/246	Jr.	DE	21	12.5	11
Jake Ratliff	6'7"/255	Sr.	DE	11	1.5	.5
McKinner Dixon	6'3"/250	Jr.	DE	30	9.5	7
Brandon Sesay	6'6"/278	Jr.	DT/DE	8	.5	0
Colby Whitlock	6'2"/281	So.	DT	35	5	1
Rajon Henley	6'3"/266	Jr.	DT	8	1.5	1.5
Richard Jones	6'1"/272	Jr.	DT	21	0	0
Marcus Tillman	6'4"/260	Jr.	DE	27	6.5	1.5
Kentrell Lockett	6'5"/240	So.	DE	35	11	2.5
Ted Laurent	6'0"/303	S0.	NT	23	7	1
Peria Jerry	6'2"/290	Sr.	DT	47	17	6
Greg Hardy	6'4"/265	Jr.	DT	17	9.5	8.5
Lawon Scott	6'3"/322	So.	DT	19	2.5	2
Jerrell Powe	6'2"/290	Sr.	NT	7	3.5	1.5
Emmanuel Stephens	6'3"/235	Jr.	DE	18	5.5	1

Texas Tech

McKinner Dixon says "face".

Perhaps the most impressive improvement of the defense was the play of the maturation of the defensive line. Texas Tech went from 82nd in the nation, allowing 177.00 yards a game in 2007 to allowing 133.50 yards a game, good for 45th in the nation. It was a combination of new players as well as other players that just grew up a bit.

Starting with the ends, the arrival of McKinner Dixon gave Texas Tech two quality ends, who could rush the passer, the other standout being Brandon Williams. Rather than have just be a one-trick-pony with just one end that could be double-teamed, the arrival of Dixon signaled an end to focusing on just one side of the line. Dixon's arrival also meant that Texas Tech went from 26 sacks a game, 46th in the nation, to 30 sacks in 2008, good for 25th in the nation. That's significant improvement, and without belaboring the point too much, the conversation as to why Texas Tech defense improved can start here.

Colby Whitlock took his lumps as a freshman and learned quite a bit. Whitlock didn't get the recognition that he might have deserved this year, but the progression that he made from his freshman year to his sophomore year has been dramatic.

The surprise of the defensive line is perhaps Richard Jones. Jones was slotted behind Henley, but after Henley was injured in the year, Jones stepped in and did a decent job.

The biggest problem with the line, is Ole Miss' strength, which is making tackles behind the line of scrimmage. There's no push amongst the defensive tackles other than Whitlock and along the ends it's the "Williams and Dixon Show" and that's it. Texas Tech is 106th in the nation in tackles for loss and I think it was all to evident against the Sooners how this group can tend to be pushed around. Granted, there are some individual players (i.e. Whitlock and Dixon) that still do a good job of stopping the run, but for the most part there's plenty to be worried about with the Ole Miss offense.

I should also emphasize that the rushing defense got worse as the season progressed. Texas Tech did give up 161 yards against Kansas, and I realize that this was a blowout win, but gave up 186 to Oklahoma State, somewhat expected, 299 to Oklahoma and 229 to Baylor and the incredible Robert Griffin. Not to mention, Texas Tech gave up 11 rushing touchdowns in those last three games, and only gave up 10 in the previous 9 games.

Things have got to tighten up.

Mississippi

Peria Jerry, he is hurting people.

These guys are good.

For the year, the most yards in any given game that the Rebels gave up is 131 against Vanderbilt. The Rebels' last 4 games weren't against the best competition (Auburn, La. Monroe, LSU and Mississippi State) but during these last 4 games these guys only gave up 75, 72, 37 and -51 yards.

Yep, these guys are good.

The leader of this group is Peria Jerry, pictured above, and is an absolute beast. An astounding 17 tackles for a loss and 6 sacks from the defensive tackle position. Peria is probably the highest rated defensive tackle on NFL draft boards in 2009. There's a couple of guys that you should pay attention to on the Ole Miss defense, but Jerry is, without a doubt, one of them. He's going to play on Sundays.

Right behind Jerry in terms of production are defensive end Kentrell Lockett, who, for the year, has 11 tackles for a loss and 2.5 sacks and defensive tackle Greg Hardy, leading the team in sacks with 8.5 for the year. I should also note that Lockett has been much better in the 2nd half of the season, where he registered 8 of his 11 TFL's in the last 6 games.

Ted Laurent, Marcus Tillman and Emmanuel Stephens all dominate the team stats in tackles for loss and once again proves that this is an active defensive line that is doing a tremendous job of getting penetration, pushing opposing offensive lines backwards and making plays.

I've saved the best statistics for last. As good as Texas Tech has been defensively, especially in terms of sacks, Mississippi has been on another level. For the year, Ole Miss is 5th in the nation in sacks with 37 for the year and averaging over 3 a game. If you want to look at tackles for loss, the Rebels are 1st in the nation at 8.92 PER GAME! How about them apples? For the year, Ole Miss has had 107 tackles behind the line of scrimmage for 454 yards and I find that utterly amazing. This is going to be a real test for the Texas Tech offensive line that only gave up 5 sacks for the entire year and only lost 150 yards rushing (58 of those yards were Harrell's) for the year with Baron Batch only losing 12 yards for the year on 111 carries and Shannon Woods only losing 11 yards for the year on 135 carries.

Conclusion:

Ole Miss may have the best defensive line in the nation with 4 or 5 guys that could be playing on Sundays. They're just loaded with talent up and down the line. The Texas Tech defensive line has been improved, but this one's really not close.

Previous Matchups

Quarterbacks :: Running Backs :: Receiver :: Offensive Line :: Defensive Line :: Linebackers :: Secondary :: Special Teams :: Coaching

Matchup	Advantage
Quarterback
Running Back
Receivers
Offensive Line
Defensive Line

Poll

Who do you favor in this matchup of defensive lines?

Texas Tech

98 votes

Mississippi

209 votes

307 votes | Poll has closed