SB Nation - Chris Nickson

Vanderbilt Preview - Friday Morning Comics

BirdGT — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 12:00:22 -0000

Let's define the state of Vanderbilt football according to Webster's:

Vanderbilt Football [van-der-bilt-foot-bawl] (n) -
1. a futile act or event
2. the smallest or weakest of a litter
3. a football program in the SEC that has only won 16% of their conference games since 2000

Vanderbilt's football team has been bad this season. It's been bad for a while but this year just plain bad. When everyone kinda thought they were turning the corner in 2008, the 2009 season went to Hell in a hand basket with losses to three beatable programs in Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Army. Vanderbilt's offense is fairly putrid only averaging 16.6 points per game (last in SEC) while their defense is managing to hold opponents to about 17.8 points per game. I'm gonna delve into why this game should not be a problem for Georgia Tech.

Run Vandy, Run
Vandy has played or will play two of our opponents this year: Mississippi State and Georgie. The MSU Bulldogs piled up 260 yards against the Commodores. Georgie accumulated 173 yards in their game against Vandy. For comparison's sake, the Moreno-less Bulldogs have averaged around 100 yards on the ground/game.

The running defense isn't the biggest of their concerns, however. The 2009 Vanderbilt squad struggles when their primary rusher, Warren Norman, is contained. Against a Mississippi State squad that gave up 213 rushing yards and four TD's to GT, the Commodores could barely manage 30 yards of rushing. The Commodores are averaging around 178 yards per game on the ground but if their MSU effort is a blueprint for how to beat the Commodores, then I have a simple message for Wommack, "Contain #27."

Warren Norman is the predominant playmaker for Vanderbilt. He's accumulated 38.1% of the Commodore's rushing yardage. Since the MSU debacle, Norman's productivity has increased to just under 50% of the Vandy rushing offense. Norman and the rest of the Vandy rushing offense have a pretty glaring issue and that's their inability to find the end zone. Vandy hasn't scored a rushing touchdown since September. The offensive line averages out to be pretty experience-heavy. The issue appears to be a lack of athleticism rather than execution. Teams have more depth and athleticism than Vandy and it shows in the red zone.

Here's all you need to know about Vandy's red zone offense: 10 red zone trips against BCS teams, 3 touchdowns. Here's all you need to know about Vandy's red zone defense: 12 trips to the red zone, 7 touchdowns. Vandy doesn't score touchdowns because they can't effectively control the ground game.

Vandy Cannot Pass
Any stats can be stretched and manipulated to make a player or team look good. Vanderbilt's passing stats are the lone exception. Vandy is dead last in passing yardage in a conference that cannot defend the pass. If you factor in the terrible sacks given up by Vandy, their offense is only averaging 4 yards per pass attempt. That's pretty futile considering the next worse is Kentucky at almost a full two yards better per attempt.

The interesting thing, to me, is the complete removal of senior Mackenzi Adams from the QB rotation. I think Vanderbilt fans have to be a little disappointed in the appointment of Larry Smith as starter and Bobby Johnson's continual starting of the sophomore. Mackenzi appeared to be the heir apparent with the departure of Chris Nickson but Johnson's confidence was with Smith. And the play of Smith has sent the Vanderbilt season down the tube. Don't expect big things from Vandy's offense. Period.

One Positive - Vandy Can Return Kickoffs
Vandy has a decent kicking game led by the Warren Norman. He's making the plays and has scored twice on kickoff returns. If we score quickly and kickoff to this guy, expect a big play and good field position for Vandy. Norman's got the speed to make plays in the return game and our kickoff coverage, barring last week's rain soaked UVA thrashing, is piss poor.

Predictions
Bird: Vandy gets beat down at home in front of roughly 35,000 Vandy fans. GT 35, VU 10.
Dane: 38-13.
Winfield: In our latest installment of the "Georgia Tech Tour de SEC", the Jackets run all over them while running 2-3 basic formations and not doing anything fancy whatsoever. GT 42 Vandy 6

An Ugly Drive Chart

Year2 — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 16:00:34 -0000

When Dr. Saturday does installments his "Life on the Margins" series every week, he uses some interesting stats to describe what happened. Swing points are his term for special teams points, defensive scores, and scoring drives of under 25 points. Wasted yards are yards gained on non-scoring drives plus penalties. Yards for points are yards gained on scoring drives.

Now, obviously a team that has been shut out will not have any yards for points. But for a team that actually scored, I can't imagine a more dismal ratio of yards for points to wasted yards:

Vanderbilt had 157 total yards against Mississippi State, and only two of them were put to use for scoring. That's right, only 1.27% of Vanderbilt's yards were on a scoring drive. This two yard "drive," by the way, actually started at the Mississippi State five yard line, not Vandy's as the chart says, after a fumble by the Bulldogs' Robert Elliott.

I honestly can't think of a more discouraging drive chart. There could be some more turnovers I suppose, but then you could at least point at some mistakes you can correct. In the Commodores' case, they didn't make the big mistake. They simply couldn't move the ball much and the one score they had was a gift.

The new look, hurry up spread offense in Nashville is clearly still a work in progress. It did gain more yards than last year's did against Mississippi State, but not topping last year's 107 yard output would have been pretty hard to do. Larry Smith's 3.9 yards per pass were noticeably higher than the 3.1 that Chris Nickson and Mackenzi Adams put together, but the ground game declined from 1.7 yards per carry to 1.1 a carry.

Mississippi State can feel somewhat good about its performance, as the Bulldogs improved in every way offensively except turnovers (which increased from zero to one) from last year. The passing game was still spotty at best, but they did rush for a respectable 4.6 yards per carry.

No matter how you slice it though, this was an ugly game between these two teams. You'd be forgiven if you saw the 15-3 final and assumed that all the points were on field goals (MSU had a touchdown with a failed conversion). That drive chart for Vanderbilt still just sticks with me for some reason. I won't say that Vandy can't overcome this and make a bowl, because the Commodores lost to Mississippi State a year ago, but at 1-2 with the entire SEC East plus Ole Miss to go, it's not looking good for a repeat.

Comparison: Vanderbilt versus Miami University and WCU

Year2 — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 17:30:33 -0000

Since we only have a week of football under our belts, the only thing we can do right now for comparison's sake is look at what teams did last year versus what they did this year. So with that in mind, let's take a look at how Vanderbilt did against Miami University last year and Western Carolina this year.

I don't mean to suggest that Miami and WCU are on the same level, because Miami is a better team all around. Vanderbilt simply didn't play a I-AA team last year, and Miami was Vanderbilt's worst opponent. That's why I chose it as the comparison point.

As with previous comparisons, sack yardage has been taken out of the rushing totals.

OFFENSE

CATEGORY	VS. MIAMI	VS. WCU
Total Yards	371	626
Passing	91	187
Yds. per Pass	5.7	7.5
Rushing	280	439
Yds. Per Rush	5.8	6.4
Turnovers	2	1
Time of Poss.	32:43	34:44
Sacks All.	2 (-11 yards)	1 (-6 yards)

If any of you had Vanderbilt as the team that would run the most number of offensive plays over the weekend, take a bow. The Commodores' new hurry up offense resulted in 95 offensive plays run against the Catamounts. The per pass and per rush rates were up, as you would expect when you drop back to a I-AA opponent, but it was the blizzard of plays that helped Vandy come relatively close to doubling the yardage they got against Miami.

The improvement in passing is encouraging, especially when you look and see that Larry Smith personally threw for 8.5 yards a pass. That's notable considering that neither Chris Nickson nor Mackenzi Adams reached that rate against anyone in 2008 and they hit 8.5 yards per pass a combined five times over the past three seasons.

DEFENSE

CATEGORY	VS. MIAMI	VS. WCU
Total Yards	375	138
Passing	244	74
Yds. per Pass	5.8	2.8
Rushing	131	64
Yds. Per Rush	6.0	3.0
Turnovers	3	4
Time of Poss.	27:17	25:16
Sacks For	3 (-35 yards)	3 (-23 yards)

I don't really know enough about either Miami University or WCU to say how big an improvement this is for the Vanderbilt defense. What I can say is that Vanderbilt's defense was better in almost every way against WCU than Tennessee's was against WKU. I doubt we can draw too many conclusions from that, other than that Vandy's defense is going to be very good again.

It's always tough judging things from games against I-AA opponents, but Vanderbilt's game against WCU went about as well as could be expected. Smith went down in the second half, but it turned out only to be stomach cramps. He'll be ready to go on Saturday against LSU in one of the more interesting games of the day.

Previous Comparison: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee.

ATVSQBPI: Past is Prologue

Richard Pittman — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 09:30:14 -0000

Former Kentucky quarterback Andre Woodson put on his old jersey and celebrated his pretty good ATVSQBPI from 2007.

You wanted more information about the And The Valley Shook Quarterback Productivity Index, and I am here to give it to you. I have the data going back three years in the SEC. The first year can be found here, and we will reproduce it for this post.

Again, reminding you that the formula is as follows:

ATVSQBPI = (yards passing + yards rushing - yards lost by sack + 20*Number of Touchdowns - 30*Number of Interceptions)/(Number of pass attempts + rush attempts).

The explanation for why we use this particular formula is found here, but realize we are not using the complete formula because First Down stats are not quite as readily available, and it should pretty much wash out anyway. Plus, we've all gotten used to the scale this particular metric gives us.

Would you like to see 2006 and 2007? How about after the jump?

2008:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	8.73
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	8.49
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss	7.84
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.87
Casey Dick, Arkansas	5.68
Jarrett Lee, LSU	5.56
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.12
Jordan Jefferson, LSU	5.11
Nick Stephens, Tennessee	5.10
Kodi Burns, Auburn	5.02
Chris Nickson, Vandy	5.01
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina	4.95
Tyson Lee, Mississippi State	4.86
Mike Hartline, Kentucky	4.77
Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee	4.34
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	4.03
Chris Todd, Auburn	4.02
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	2.85

Alright, we've been through those numbers once before. Let's take a look at 2007:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	9.11
Ryan Perrilloux, LSU	8.20
Erik Ainge, Tennessee	7.12
Andre Woodson, Kentucky	6.89
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	6.78
Casey Dick, Arkansas	6.15
Matt Flynn, LSU	6.08
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina	5.81
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.69
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.62
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	5.16
Seth Adams, Ole Miss	5.03
Brandon Cox, Auburn	5.00
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	4.73

What are my take-away messages from this?:

Numbers were generally better in 2007 than they were in 2008.
Wesley Carroll was the worst starting QB in the SEC in both 2008 and 2007.
Tebow was a little better in his Heisman year than in his junior year. Or at least, he was a little more productive.
You really can win with average QB play, if you consider that LSU won the national championship with middle of the pack quarterback play in 2007, while Auburn was a pretty decent team with one of the least effective QBs in the conference. It sure makes it easier, though, if you're really good.
Just look at Ryan Perrilloux. That's what we didn't have in 2008. Well, that and a defense.
Andre Woodson was held back by his awful rushing numbers (not shown).

Let's move on to 2006, in which I lift the numbers straight from my old website:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Jamarcus Russell, LSU	9.16
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina	8.26
Erik Ainge, Tennessee	8.07
Andre Woodson, Kentucky	7.79
Chris Leak, Florida	7.02
Syvelle Newton, South Carolina	7.00
Casey Dick, Arkansas	6.99
Chris Nickson, Vandy	6.55
Brandon Cox, Auburn	6.37
John Parker Wilson, Bama	6.14
Omarr Conner, Mississippi State	6.13
Michael Henig, Mississippi State	5.82
Matthew Stafford, UGA	5.78
Mitch Mustain, Arkansas	5.68
Brent Schaeffer, Ole Miss	4.27

What are my take-home messages from 2006?:

Jamarcus Russell had the best ATVSQBPI of any quarterback between the years 2006 and 2008.
But on the other hand, numbers in general declined steadily in those years. Just look at John Parker Wilson. His ATVSQBPI actually fell each year he was a starter, but his ranking increased. Some of the worst QBs in the league in 2006 would have been pretty average in 2008 with the same production. Look at where Omarr Conner and Michael Henig would have ranked in 2008? Does this mean that Michael Henig was as good a quarterback in 2006 as John Parker Wilson was in 2008? Heck no. The steady decline of the mean from year to year, and the reduction in production of John Parker Wilson as he went from sophomore to senior, suggest the reduction is due mostly to better defenses.
Look at the steady progression of Matthew Stafford.
What the heck happened to Blake Mitchell?

If you have any additional thoughts, I welcome you sharing them.

ATVS Quarterback Productivity Index: Let's Look At the Numbers

Richard Pittman — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 16:25:42 -0000

On Friday, I introduced you (again) to the ATVS Quarterback Productivity Index. It is an attempt to improve upon the traditional, but not terribly helpful, "Passer Rating". It is measured in yards per attempt, with bonuses and penalties for interceptions and touchdowns, and includes quarterback rushing statistics as well. Here is the formula:

Passer Rating = (yards passing + yards rushing - yards lost by sack + 5*(First down completions and runs) + 20*Number of Touchdowns - 30*Number of Turnovers)/(Number of pass attempts + rush attempts).

You should think of this as giving a value for how much yardage a quarterback is worth when his number is called, with bonuses and penalties.

I was asked by LSUJonno to take a look at some numbers. I agreed, but there is one problem with that request. One of the statistics I use to compile the index is not generally kept. Without good statistics on 1st Downs, it is impossible to get a good indication of where the numbers are. So, I calculated the numbers simply taking out the 1st down statistics. This should make a dramatic impact on the absolute scale of numbers, as most quarterbacks will probably get 1st downs on approximately half of their completed passes. With a 1st down being worth 5 bonus yards above and beyond the yardage actually gained, you can expect that the actual numbers using the full formula would be 1 to 2 yards higher than are given.

Also, please note, that according to ESPN statistics, no quarterback in the SEC lost a fumble, so that part of the formula washes out.

Before we take a look at the numbers, let's take a look at the perceptions. If you ask most observers, they would say that in 2008, there were 3 top-tier quarterbacks in the SEC: Tim Tebow of Florida, Matthew Stafford of Georgia, and Jevan Snead of Ole Miss. After that, most would say that there was a second tier of John Parker Wilson of Bama and Casey Dick of Arkansas. Then, there was a monstrous collection of suck throughout the conference. Let's see if the numbers bear this out:

ATVSQBPI Ratings for 2008 SEC Quarterbacks:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	8.73
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	8.49
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss	7.84
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.87
Casey Dick, Arkansas	5.68
Jarrett Lee, LSU	5.56
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.12
Jordan Jefferson, LSU	5.11
Nick Stephens, Tennessee	5.10
Kodi Burns, Auburn	5.02
Chris Nickson, Vandy	5.01
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina	4.95
Tyson Lee, Mississippi State	4.86
Mike Hartline, Kentucky	4.77
Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee	4.34
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	4.03
Chris Todd, Auburn	4.02
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	2.85

Most of our initial prejudices appear to be born out. There is definitely a first tier, and it includes the quarterbacks we would have expected. Tebow, Stafford, and Snead, and no others.

While Casey Dick and John Parker Wilson were the next two quarterbacks, the second tier didn't quite develop as I would have expected. Jarrett Lee is right there with him, and for that I think you can thank the fact that the formula I use does not distinguish between interceptions returned for a touchdowns and interceptions with no return. After Lee, it is not all that far to the Smelleys and Burnses of the conference.

Also, it is important to realize that other than the top 3 quarterbacks on the list, almost no one had a very good TD/Int ratio. Nine quarterbacks in the SEC threw more interceptions than touchdowns, and 4 had ratios pretty close to 1:1. In the entire SEC, only the following QBs (among the ones with appreciable statistics) had a TD/Int ratio better than 1.5:1: Tebow, Stafford, Snead, Nathan Dick, Jordan Jefferson, and Chris Nickson. That's it.

I did not list the raw statistics, but another feature here is that every quarterbacks rating suffered as a result of their rushing statistics, which is not surprising considering "rushes" includes sacks as well as mad scrambles to escape a rush, which often result in very short gains. The question becomes how much do the rushing statistics hurt each quarterback, and how are they relative to each other. The unfortunate side effect is that quarterbacks who had a lot of designed runs suffered disproportionately, and probably unfairly. Kodi Burns and Stephen Garcia especially saw their ratings suffer.

Tim Tebow's ratings did not suffer much for his running because he's just that darn good at it, and his touchdown numbers really kept him high up the list.

Jarrett Lee was easily the least effective rusher, failing to score a rushing touchdown and averaging a whopping 8.82 yard loss per rush. The good news is that he did not have a lot of rushes, which means he did a good job of getting rid of the ball. But then again, see his 16 interceptions.

It does verify what I told Team Speed Kills back when they were previewing LSU, which was that Jarrett Lee was not the worst QB in the conference. In fact, statistically (both in passer ratings and in ATVSQBPI) he was towards the middle of the pack. People just remember the returns, which weren't really his fault beyond the fact that he threw the interceptions. But everyone threw interceptions except Tebow, Snead, Stafford, and Nickson. Lee was not good, but there were a LOT of 'not good' quarterbacks in the SEC. Among the 'not good' quarterbacks, Lee was actually one of the better ones, especially if you don't blame him for the fact that so many of his interceptions had big returns.

You can decide for yourself if those returns are his fault, beyond the mere fact that he threw the interception that led to the return.

It's too bad I could not add in the first down statistics, as it would have been interesting to see if they made a significant difference in how the quarterbacks ranked.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet with the raw data if you're interested.

2008 Quarterback Statistics

Breaking Down Kentucky at Vanderbilt

Anything but Gatorade — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 14:01:36 -0000

via assets.espn.go.com

Take the above image and repeat about five or six times and you have Commies at Cats, 2008. Several blogs lately have pointed out that the Doormat Bowl has evolved from answering the question of "who's going to be at the bottom of the league" to "who's going to be at the bottom of the league, but also gets to go to a bowl?" That wasn't the case in 2008, as Kentucky got torched and still went to the Liberty Bowl. It might not be the case in 2009, either, as South Carolina or Tennessee could easily fail their way to the same East basement that Vandy and UK have struggled so mightily to climb out of. Of course, every conference game is important, but, because UK/VU tends to happen so late in the season, it always seems like a fulcrum-type game, and 2009 looks to shape up that way, too. Chris Low calls the game a "fork in the road" for Kentucky, and Team Speed Kills calls it one of the 10 games that will shape the SEC this year.

Cocknfire over at TSK does a pretty good job breaking down the game, and I've taken a look at it myself recently, albeit a brief one. Of all the games on the schedule this year for both the Cats and Commodores, this was the hardest one for me to pick (or push). Here's a deeper look, and why it's probably not going to matter come November 14th anyway:

Coaches: Rich Brooks (123-150-4 in 24 total collegiate seasons, 32-41 in 7 years at UK); Bobby Johnson (87-92 in 16 collegiate seasons, 27-56 in 8 years at Vanderbilt). Oddly enough, Bobby Johnson is the longest tenured coach in the SEC. Both of these guys can really coach, and both have led historic turnarounds in their schools' football programs. I'll say this for Coach Johnson, though: he's done more with much less, and also without an athletic department. Brooks's efforts and success have been well documented, and the fact that he's still here after two and a half miserable seasons due to probation, etc., is a testament to his abilities and philosophy.

Offenses: Vanderbilt's offensive line last year was, in a word, bad. Luckily, they had fleet-footed Chris Nickson under center to scramble around behind them. Unluckily, Nickson's list of options was fairly limited: dump it off to someone who wasn't covered, try and run for yards, throw it away, or take a hard sack. The latter two options were the ones most often employed. Spelling Nickson occasionally was Mackenzi Adams, who played well enough in his opportunities but not so well to get the starting nod for 2009. It's my expectation that Larry Smith will get that honor, and he's got much better blockers this time around. Short white guy running back Jared Hawkins returns to a role he was oddly effective in last year. The receivers are young, and that's probably the biggest question mark in the whole unit (aside from "who the hell is that guy, these jerks don't put names on their jerseys").

Ken's going through this sort of thing for Kentucky, but the line for the Cats this year should be pretty good. Christian Johnson, Jorge Gonzales, and Zipp Duncan are all coming back, and T.C. Drake must've accidentally gotten his name on some watch list for tight ends. The receivers were bad last year aside from Dicky Lyons, Jr. and Randall Cobb, but showed some promise in the bowl game. The running backs are good, but it would be nice to see some gains between the tackles. I'm pulling for Hartline because it's too soon to throw a freshman into the SEC meat grinder and Cobb's way more effective in open space than behind center.

Who gets the edge? Like so many things about these teams, there's not much room for a difference. There are lots of questions at receiver. The lines are both good, though I'd give Kentucky's a better grade. I'd give Hartline a push at QB because even though he's more experienced, he wasn't good last year. Kentucky's got more proven backs than the Dores do. I'll give the Cats a slight advantage here.

Defenses: Vanderbilt's defense is why they made it to a bowl last year. D.J. Moore was a nightmare for everyone who faced him, and he had a freakin' coming out party against Kentucky last year. Fortunately for the Cats, he's gone now. In his place, though, are Myron Lewis, Jamie Graham, and Ryan Hamilton, all effective tacklers and coverage backs. The defensive line returns most of its starters, and the linebackers are an experienced group as well.

Kentucky's secondary is equal to if not better than Vanderbilt's, returning Trevard Lindley, Ashton Cobb, Paul Warford, and Matt Lentz. The linebackers are also a talented group, with Micah Johnson returning along with Sam Maxwell and Danny Trevathan. The question marks are all up front, especially at the ends.

Edge here is even more difficult to tell. Will Kentucky's D-line firm up by November 14? How much of a pounding has each unit taken over the season? The interesting part is the offense-defense matchup; neither offense is expected to be especially effective, so the defenses might be better than we think in this game. Push.

Special Teams: I'm not a Lones Seiber fan. Here's hoping he gets his act together this year, because if Kentucky wants to win games, field goals are probably going to be pretty important. Vanderbilt returns Music City Bowl MVP punter Brett Upson, who is about as good as Tim Masthay was in terms of putting the other team in a hole as far as field position. Ryan Tiddlywinks (I can't spell his last name without looking it up) will probably have his hands full this year unless the Wildcat offense becomes much more effective at keeping the ball.

Kentucky's bread and butter in the past has been its return game, and I don't see this year being any different with any combination of Randall Cobb, Alfonso Smith, Gene McCaskill, Derrick Locke, and Kyrus Lanxter filling those roles. They can't catch passes consistently, but at least the catch punts and kickoffs. I'm not totally sure who'll be returning kicks for the Dores this year, but I'd have to think Jamie Graham will probably be in the mix.

This is a push for me because even though I think the Cats have the better return unit, I have no confidence in their kicking ability until further notice, and Brett Upson is a stud.

Schedule: Vanderbilt plays 12 uninterrupted weeks this year and the Kentucky game falls on Week 11 of their schedule. This game will be the 10th consecutive game on the Wildcats' schedule also. Kentucky goes through the meat grinder a little earlier than the Dores do, playing Florida and Alabama in the first five weeks of the season, but they get a break before going to Nashville in the Eastern and Louisiana-Monroe games. Vanderbilt will be coming off a brutal stretch of games against Georgia, at South Carolina, Georgia Tech, and at Florida. No way do they make it through there without some injuries, so the lines and backs might be pretty dinged up at that point. It's a home game for the Commies, but Kentucky always travels well down to Nashville and the Dores have a tough time filling their stadium.

Conclusion: I think that the constant pounding in Vandy's schedule and what I hope is an emerging offense from UK will be too much for the Dores to overcome. Thing is, though, this game is always hard-fought and extremely important to both teams, and anything can happen. When the week before this game rolls around in a few months, you can probably throw all of the above out the window. Just be careful when you do that, though, there might be a person down there.

5 Keys To A Successful Season, Part 5: Quarterback Play

Richard Pittman — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 10:10:22 -0000

Photo by Kevin C. Cox of Getty Images

If you read the introductory paragraphs in yesterday's installment of this series, you saw us reference "the two biggest things that went wrong with the 2008 season." Yesterday, we covered the breakdowns in the secondary. Today, we go through the other obvious deficiency, the quarterback play.

I have previously defended Jarrett Lee's play, and I continue to do so to a point. Here is what I said to Team Speed Kills:

Alright, let me defend Jarrett Lee for a second. Lee was 5th in the SEC in yards per game, even though he split time early in the year. His completion percentage was within 3.1 percentage points of Jevan Snead's. His passing efficiency was 6th in the conference, and wasn't significantly worse than the 4th rated QB's. He made positive things happen on the field, unlike some QBs in the conference who were more or less empty uniforms (I'm looking at you, Mike Hartline). Yes, he had a very tough time with the interceptions, but he was a heck of a lot better of a quarterback than Jonathan Crompton, Kodi Burns, Mike Hartline, Chris Smelley or Chris Nickson. Things really got bad for him afterAndrew Hatch got hurt. Hatch took a lot of pressure off of Lee, and when Hatch got hurt, all of that pressure fell on Lee. At first, he was able to bounce back from mistakes, but eventually the mistakes just mounted and mounted and mounted and it weighed down on his psyche. I think Jarrett Lee could end up being a fine quarterback. He just has to get past the horrors of last year and get his swagger back.

There are some caveats I left out of that.

First, the "passer rating" is a woefully inadequate measure of a quarterback. In a previous blog, I reviewed in detail how the Passer Rating worked. I will summarize here. The passer rating is a measure of yards per attempt. The passer gets 11.9 bonus yards merely for completing a pass, 39.3 bonus yards for a touchdown pass, and a 23.8 yard penalty for an interception. The whole thing is then multiplied by 8.4 simply to disguise the fact that it's a yards/attempt statistic. They then do a little algebra to make it really confusing exactly what they're doing.

The result is, I suppose, kind of useful, but it's impossible to justify an 11.9 yard bonus merely for completing a pass, and it's equally difficult to justify a cumulative bonus of over 50 yards for a touchdown pass (12 for the completion and 39 for the touchdown) while penalizing an interception not even half as much. It could easily be made more useful simply by adjusting the bonuses and penalties to make more sense, and including the running element, which incidentally, I did with the 2006 numbers. I did it again with the first half of the 2007 season, but then I lost interest in it. And those numbers weren't that great because I couldn't input all the statistics I wanted (not having an easy time finding statistics for 1st down runs and completions, I was forced to do without).

You may hear more of this metric in the future, by the way.

OK, but what does this have to do with Jarrett Lee? Jarrett Lee had a pretty respectable passer rating, but his very poor touchdown-to-interception ratio was not sufficiently punished in the standard metric. Plus, his inability to scramble or run was not taken into account. I maintain that Jarrett Lee was better than Crompton, Burns, and others, but we shouldn't look to the passer rating to show it. He simply did more on the field. He put up yardage and points. His sparkling play in Auburn brought us from the brink in that game. In a year with supposedly horrible quarterback play, we had a receiver lead the league in receptions and touchdown receptions.

It's just hard to ignore those interceptions, in particular the ones returned for touchdowns. It's also hard to ignore how his body language went from good to middling to abysmal as the rough season and the bad press mounted. He may have brought us back from the brink against Auburn, but it was his terrible interception returned for a touchdown that put us on the brink in the first place.

Still, at this point, even if Jarrett Lee was still our starting quarterback, I would rank our QB situation at least 8th in the league at the start of the season, ahead of Tennessee's, Kentucky's, Auburn's, and probably Mississippi State's, and I'd think long and hard about whether or not to rate us higher than Vandy, and it would probably be a tossup with Bama at this point. We could potentially have a quarterback situation that was in the top half of the league at the start with Lee at the helm.

But right now the floor does not belong to Jarrett Lee. It belongs to Jordan Jefferson, who of course had an outstanding game against Georgia Tech in the Peach Bowl after a couple of middling performances against Ole Miss and Arkansas. Jefferson adds a running dimension that Jarrett Lee simply cannot bring to the table. He also seems to have that je ne sais quoi that Lee did not possess, at least not at the end of the year. That intangible thing that sportscasters and commentators sometimes call that "it factor". For what it's worth, I thought Lee had it too, at least at one point last season. I thought he had "moxie, or at least confidence," and I think he really did. It just wasn't an invincible confidence, and it was vinced.

Besides moxie and confidence, which Jordan Jefferson has, he also has a pretty darn good arm. It's not an elite Jamarcus Russell-like arm, but it's a very solid college arm. As of the end of last season, he was still trying to marshal that arm and hit the right receivers at the right time, but he didn't do badly for a true freshman who was supposed to redshirt. Here are some Jordan Jefferson highlights from the Peach Bowl:

The flip pass gets a lot of attention, and I think it shows that he has the derring-do to be a special quarterback. Not that I want him doing a whole lot of underhand passes, but you have to like that as a true freshman he did not panic when the play broke down, and he made something positive happen. He made a ton of progress between the end of the regular season and the start of the Peach Bowl, and he certainly has a long way to go still, but you have to be pleased that he made such a good progression in that time. There's no reason to believe he will stop progressing.

It would not surprise me at all to see LSU use a two-quarterback rotation, with true freshman Russell Shepard getting 5-or-so snaps per game as a change of pace game-breaking runner with the ability to throw the ball. As of right now, the coaches have been quiet about how they expect to use Shepard, but most observers expect him to be put on the field immediately in some capacity, perhaps as a receiver, perhaps as a punt returner, perhaps as a running quarterback. He is electric with the ball, and he's been in school since January.

We obviously need to improve the quarterback play to have success this year. Jarrett Lee was in a tough situation, and while he was not the worst QB in the conference, he was not good enough consistently enough to allow us to have the kind of success we want to have. Not all the blame goes on him. Our pass defense really was abysmal. Jarrett Lee had nothing to do with allowing Jevan Snead nearly 10 yards per attempt, and he had nothing to do with making Chris Todd and Tyson Lee look competent. This is just one of the areas that needs improving, but it is a big one.

Post-Spring Previews: Vanderbilt Commodores

Gamecock Man — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 02:04:46 -0000

After traveling to Tuscaloosa for a likely loss to the Tide, South Carolina returns to Columbia to host the Vanderbilt Commodores. Vandy has administered excruciatingly painful upsets to the Gamecocks in both of the past two seasons. If anything hurts more than losing to Vandy while you're riding high with a #6 national ranking, it's losing to them again to spoil what looked like a promising early season right after you've reentered the top 25. It's hard to pick up the pieces after losing to Vandy in the second game of the year. To make matters worse, we've had every chance to win these games but have killed ourselves with turnovers and inane special teams play.

I think it's safe to say that we should now consider Vandy a rival and one of the "must-win" games of 2009, and not only because of the aforementioned embarrassment factor. With no disrespect to Bobby Johnson and Vandy, which are doing a great job considering their resources, we simply can't make it to the next level if we keep losing to these guys. The best SEC teams just don't do that.

Let's take a look at how we stack up against the 2009 'Dores.

Offense

Despite their success, Vandy had a fairly anemic offense last year. When they weren't able to create points with turnovers and special teams play, they had a lot of trouble moving the ball. They failed to exceed 14 points in all of their losses and finished the year ranked 117th in the nation in total offense, which shows you that this is a team that lived and died off of defensive opportunism. Although they should be at least a little better with nine returning starters, more of the same offensive struggles could be in store for Vandy this year.

Quarterback

Vandy appears to have chosen to go with Larry Smith at quarterback after Smith beat out the more experienced Mackenzi Adams this spring. Neither, though, has been particularly effective under center for Vandy, although Smith won 'Dores fans hearts by leading a late game-winning field goal drive against Boston College in the Music City Bowlr. Smith will need to improve his completion percentage and yards per attempt for Vandy to take a step forward this year. Like Adams and the now-departed Chris Nickson, Smith is fairly mobile, which will come in handy it the 'Dores end up having protection issues. Expect Adams to see the field if Smith falters.

I would call this a strong advantage for us. For all the hoopla surrounding Smith right now, he finished the year with a 100.97 QB rating. Stephen Garcia finished was at one point around 140 and still finished at 113.68 even after his horrific performances against Florida and Iowa. One thing Vandy does have is over us is the luxury of having an experienced backup in Adams, not that Adams exactly strikes fear into the hearts of anyone that has seen him play.

Verdict: Strong advantage South Carolina

Running Backs

Vandy will look to senior Jared Hawkins to lead their running game, which was the heart of their offense last year. Hawkins, a short, stocky back, has had a serviceable career in Nashville and will look to finish with a bang in 2009. While he won't break too many long ones, he can get tough yards and has never fumbled. Hawkins was the only Vandy back to finish with over 100 yards last year (QBs Nickson and Adams and WR Jamie Graham also did), so finding another back to help Hawkins shoulder the load will be important for the 'Dores.

I'd call this a push. We have a deeper stable of talented backs, but until we prove that we can pick up the pieces after fielding last season's joke of a running game, we can't call this an advantage considering that Vandy returns an experienced back like Hawkins.

Verdict: Push

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Vandy's sluggish passing offense graduated top receiver Sean Walker, who caught over 500 yards last season. Their top returning receiver is tight end Branden Barden. (You may remember Barden as the guy that made an impressive 31-yard TD grab against us to tie the game early in the second half last season.) Finding a reliable wide out to complement Barden will be a huge priority for the 'Dores this year. Luckily, they picked up transfer Terence Jeffers, who caught for over 500 yards at UConn two years ago.

This is a slight to strong advantage for us. Vandy loses its top player from a group that struggled enough to get open last year and will rely on a transfer with no SEC experience to carry the load. While we lost Kenny McKinley, on the other hand, we have several talented players that are ready to move into McKinley's spotlight.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Offensive Line

Vandy has often struggled to field a reliable line over they years, hence Bobby Johnson's tendency to favor mobile quarterbacks. However, this year's group, which features four seniors and a junior on the first team, appears to be pretty good. If they can avoid injuries, Vandy should be solid here.

I'd call this a push. Surprisingly, Vandy's line appears to be it's greatest strength on offense due to the experience. However, this unit had some problems protecting the quarterback last year, and if they falter early this year, I'll be ready to call this an advantage for us by game day.

Verdict: Push

Let's take a look at Vandy's defense after the jump.

Defense

Vandy's defenses under Bobby Johnson have typically been decent. Last year's unit was a marvel in opportunism, always seeming to be able to come up with a turnover at the right time. It doesn't take a Head Ball Coach to figure out that Vandy's early season five-game winning streak was won on a +9 turnover differential and their late season slide came due to their return to the mean in that department. Although they lose star corner D. J. Moore, this year's group may be even better than last year's. That's good for Vandy, as the 'Dores will need this group to shoulder the load for the offense.

Defensive Line

With three seniors and a junior in the starting lineup, Vanderbilt returns a very experienced defensive line. The star, perhaps, is Broderick Stewart, who has managed to become an adept pass rusher despite only weighing in at around 225. Tackles Greg Billinger and Adam Smotherman also look solid. This is a good group, but they'll need to toughen up against the run this year.

This is a slight advantage for us. I'd call Vandy's line average as SEC lines go, whereas I'd call ours a fair bit above average.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Linebackers

Vandy linebackers are led by ILB Patrick Benoist and and WLB Chris Marve. Benoist was second-team All-SEC a year ago. SLB John Stokes rounds out the first team. This could be one of the conference's better all-around units if Stokes steps up his game. Vandy also has reasonable depth at these positions.

I would call this a push to a slight advantage for us. Vandy doesn't have anyone like Eric Norwood, but they do have a pretty well-rounded group of players.

Verdict: Push

Secondary

With Gamecocks kryptonite D. J. Moore gone, Vandy will be hard-pressed to duplicate what was one of the nation's best pass defenses from a year ago. However, cornerback Myron Lewis and safety Ryan Hamilton head up a good, experienced secondary unit for Vandy. Both Lewis and Hamilton have a shot at all-conference and would be welcome additions on almost any SEC team. Casey Hayward and Sean Richardson round out Vandy's secondary.

While we probably have a bit more athleticism on the depth chart than Vandy here, we also have more youth and less proven experience. Vandy gets the advantage.

Verdict: Slight advantage Vanderbilt

Head Coaches

Forget his horrible W-L record. Bobby Johnson is doing something very, very right. Before Johnson arrived in Nashville, Vandy not only typically posted bad records. They also usually lost by large margins to the rest of the SEC. Since Johnson took over, Vandy has turned into a dangerous team that plays even the better SEC teams very tough and usually manages an upset or two. He's now even beginning to bring somewhat respectable recruiting classes to Vandy, which is an incredible feat considering that Vandy's academic standards make it one of the toughest places in BCS football to recruit to. Make no mistake, succeeding at a school like Vanderbilt in a conference like the SEC is an incredible accomplishment, yet Johnson appears to be doing just that. Why a school with a potentially more competitive football program hasn't pulled the trigger on this guy is beyond me.

I have to give Johnson the advantage over Spurrier. Why not? He owns the Head Ball Coach.

Verdict: Slight advantage Vanderbilt

Overall

Despite all the excitement around the Vandy football program last year, in the back of 'Dores fans minds must be the fact that they won with smoke and mirrors last year. 2008 frankly wasn't even Johnson's best team in Nashville; the 2005 team with Jay Cutler and Earl Bennett actually had a prolific offense and was a few points away from a bowl berth. The difference was that that team didn't get the bounces quite as often. (Remember this game?) A reversion to the mean may be in store with this year's Vanderbilt team, which appears to seriously lack offensive firepower. When they come to play us, they'll be going up against a talent differential. Moreover, if we can't get up for this game after what's happened the last two years, then we don't deserve to play in the SEC. I think we'll win this one by a couple of touchdowns.

Prediction: South Carolina wins by 14 points

Wanna know more about Vandy in 2009? Check out these previews:

Counterintuitive Thought of the Month: Tebow Should Have Gone Pro -- For Florida's Sake

cocknfire — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 05:29:21 -0000

Yes, I'm trying to be thought-provoking here, but I do think there's merit to the argument I'm putting forth, or I wouldn't write it.

This is a thought that's been rolling around in my mind for a couple of weeks now, but it didn't really feel like the best building block for the season review of Florida, so let's throw it out there as the counterintuitive thought of the month.

Tim Tebow should have gone pro in 2008 because it was in Florida's best interest for him to do so.

I'll wait for a moment. Okay, you can stop laughing now. Seriously, now would be a good time.

The reason I say this has less to do with Florida than it has to do with the rest of the SEC East. Consider Florida's fellow division members for a moment.

Georgia. Sure, there are some good players here, and anyone can easily fall into the trap of underestimating Mark Richt's ability to turn what looks like a rebuilding year into a championship run. That said, the Dawgs lost QB Matthew Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno to the NFL Draft, meaning the strong point of the 2008 team (the offense) will likely be dramatically weaker next season. That's not a knock on potential QB replacements Joe Cox or Logan Gray or RBs like Caleb King, but none of them are going to be touted preseason (or, in all likelihood, postseason) as Heism@n contenders. There's little reason to hope for enough improvement on the defensive side of the ball to make up for the offensive shortcomings, meaning Georgia has probably taken a step or two backwards in the SEC East race.

South Carolina. Yes, I would say that South Carolina could be the second most-likely team to challenge Florida. This isn't blatant homerism, as I see the chances for the Gamecocks to travel to Atlanta for anything more than the Peach Bowl to be extremely remote. Instead, it's a testament to how weak I think the rest of the division is that I would put here a team losing its best two receiving options after going 7-6 in 2008 and entering next season with a questionable offensive line and questionable QB situation.

Tennessee. Unless you think Boy Wonder is, well, really Boy Wonder, there's not much reason to put Tennessee too far north of .500 next year. There are some nice players on the Vols, to be sure. But the only thing Lane Kiffin has managed to do so far as a head coach is piss off everyone from Al Davis to Mike Slive. Slive, it should be noted, is very hard to piss off. This is not exactly a surprise if you look at Pete Carroll's, ahem, coaching tree.

Kentucky. This isn't a strict this-team-is-in-this-place ranking, though I'm trying to be close. I think the Wildcats could end up anywhere from third in the division to sixth. Their once-vaunted defense fell apart last year when it faced real competition, and it takes more than a win against East Carolina to get that out of my mind. And their QB situation is unsettled. I don't think they'll be defeating Florida for the SEC East crown.

Vanderbilt. Yeah, I know, 7-6, blah blah blah. But it's Vanderbilt. Quick -- beside QB Mackenzi Adams, name one player that will return to Vanderbilt next year. Actually, you might be surprised to learn that 22 seniors leave this team, including QB Chris Nickson. And that doesn't count the loss of CB D.J. Moore to the NFL Draft. Vanderbilt has already become better than your father's Vanderbilt, and a few teams (Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi) are no longer going to pencil in the Commodores as a win. But, like the teams above them, they can't challenge Florida.

So Florida's division foes don't seem to pose much of a threat right now to the Gators, who have to be given the early edge to repeat in the SEC and maybe for the national title. This isn't all because of Tebow. It's also because of a solid defense and because they lose relatively few high-profile seniors and only one draft-eligible junior. True, the junior is Percy Harvin, a severe but not fatal blow.

Now, throw John Brantley into the mix as Florida's QB instead of Tim Tebow. I'm still not sure any of the other teams in the SEC East have a decent chance at defeating them.

Next year's SEC West opponents are at LSU (a tough game either way, but only if Jordan Jefferson is as good as he looked the last few games of 2008), vs. Arkansas (a likely win either way) and at Mississippi State. You want to say Mississippi State is a likely win either way for Florida, but then you remember that the state of Mississippi has been one long, running nightmare for the Gators for more than a decade now, and you might see why Florida fans wouldn't want to take any unnecessary risk. In any case, if it's a jinx, Tim Skywalker is no more likely to avoid it than one of his replacements.

The other 2009 opponents for the Gators are Charleston Southern (W), Troy (W), Florida International (W) and Florida State (likely win).

Any game in which you're substituting any QB for Tim Tebow is a game you're less likely to win. But are there any of those games where you would choose Florida to lose if they had to replace Tebow with another quarterback? Yes, Georgia becomes a bit more of toss-up. LSU might move from a likely win to a toss-up. Florida State become less likely, but you still have to give the edge to the Gators.

Sure, Florida would still have to win the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta, but the SEC West includes the aforementioned LSU, a John Parker Wilson-less Alabama, Mississippi and then the Island of Misfit Teams (Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State).

Here's the key point, though: Even if you downgrade Florida's chances to win three or four games next year, how much worse will it be if the Gators try to break in a new quarterback in 2010? Georgia might have stabilized its quarterback and/or running back positions. Kiffin might have figured out how to coach in the SEC. Spurrier might have decided to put his entire offensive line on a diet of whale blubber. Rich Brooks might finally realize that every day, he's getting a little bit closer to that rapidly-approaching 700th birthday, and he might want to try to win the SEC East quickly. And Bobby Johnson might still have his magic leprechaun tucked away somewhere in what used to be the Vanderbilt athletics department.

No, now would be the ideal time to try to get a new quarterback started. Is keeping Tebow a short-term gain? Almost certainly. Long-term loss? Quite possibly.

Poll

Would it have been in Florida's interest for Tebow to enter the NFL Draft this year?

Yes. It would have given Florida more time to develop another QB.

5 votes

No. You are on crack.

32 votes

No. But it would have been in my team's best interest.

27 votes

64 votes | Poll has closed

Is It an Upset If Everyone Sees It Coming? Ole Miss 31, LSU 13 and other Week 13 action

cocknfire — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 08:03:20 -0000

Sorry to upset you. Or not ...

And the Valley Shook recap (LSU)

The Mayor and I had a discussion earlier this week about whether Ole Miss-LSU was really an upset if the Rebels could manage to win. Many nonpartisan SEC observers, after all, chose Ole Miss to win the game, and the 31-13 waxing in the Bayou on Saturday was not a fluke in any way.

LSU's line play, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, was disappointing; Tiger backs almost always found themselves running into a swarm of red jerseys, and non-quarterbacks ran for 21 yards. Meanwhile, Jevan Snead made the Bengals' secondary resemble a California forest on a cable-news show, completing 16 of 25 passes for 274 yards and 2 TDs. Ole Miss WR Mike Wallace fell just short of his fourth 100-yard game, grabbing five passes for 99 yards and a pair of scores.

The most exciting play of the game, by far, was Houston Nutt at his finest: A fake punt that LSU saw coming, but with a twist the Bengals weren't ready for, namely fullback Jason Cook passing to safety Kendrick Lewis for a 33-yard gain that set up the Rebels' second score. A few minutes later, Ole Miss lead 21-3, and the game was practically over.

Jarrett Lee was Jarrett Lee, though neither he nor Jordan Jefferson got much help from LSU's receiving corps. Jefferson came in after Lee actually completed a risky pass instead of having it returned for a pick-six; the interception machine was hit while throwing off his back foot, which is not an ideal position to be in when a very large defender tackles you.

Jarrett, are you okay? How many pick-sixes have you thrown this year?

The remainder of the game appeared to give LSU a quarterback of the future.

vs Mississippi / 11.22.08	Passing					Rushing
	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	Rush	Yds	Avg	TD
Jordan Jefferson	10	20	50.0	129	1	10	23	2.3	0

Jefferson also threw an interception, as did Lee, but the backup also threw several impressive passes, showed some accuracy and looks to have more mobility than the starter. If LSU's line doesn't improve, scrambilng ability could become a key factor in choosing who should play.

The loss makes the Bengals' showdown with Arkansas a must-win game; after all, a loss against the Hogs would leave LSU 7-5, a record more worthy of a Music City or Liberty Bowl contestant than an Outback or Peach Bowl visitor. The Cotton Bowl is out; upset or not, Mississippi won the right Saturday to play in Dallas.

AN IMPERFECT DREAM
Tennessee 20, Vanderbilt 10
Rocky Top Talk recap (Tennessee) :: Conquer and Prevail (Vanderbilt)

It's hard to know which game had more Tennessee Volunteer fans watching it -- this one or Texas Tech-Oklahoma, which featured a man some Rocky Top supporters hope will be the next coach of the Vols. Don't let the score deceive you; if they watched the Sooners demolish the Red Raiders, they watched the better football game.

The Vols-Dores contest, on the other hand, featured a combined six turnovers, 11 penalties and 456 yards of offense -- only 21 of those from Tennessee's passing, ahem, "attack." No one in this game played good football, and hardly anyone played football at all. (Eric Berry gave the game ball back to Fulmer and D.J. Moore wasn't much of a factor.)

Tennessee's offense was anemic, but Dave Clawson finally seems to have figured out that the best chance for the Vols is to run the ball, the run the ball and then run the ball. One could argue he discovered this about 10 games too late. Tennessee attemped nine passes, including four completions, and otherwise left things in the hands of Lennon Creer and Arian Foster, who combined for 153 of the Vols' 222 rushing yards.

For Vandy, the QB play was as mediocre as ever. Mackenzi Adams completed half his passes, and Chris Nickson's only completion of his five attempts netted -4 yards.

Of course, the Commodores will be going to a bowl game next month, and the Vols will stay home. But, for a day at least, Tennessee could still feel a bit better about itself than Vanderbilt.

MISSISSIPPI STATE? OFFENSE?!? WHO KNEW?
Mississippi State 31, Arkansas 28

Want to know how bad Arkansas' defense is? Just take a look at Tyson Lee's numbers from Saturday: 23-of-40, 219 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs. Sure, you might have figured that Anthony Dixon had a 179-yard rushing performance in him -- but Tyson Lee?!? Really?

Not that the Bulldogs really shut down Arkansas' passing attack; Nathan Dick (brother of Casey) passed for 333 yards, completing 25 of his 43 attempts for three scores and a pick.

What sticks out about this game is the near-equality in most of the major stat categories: Mississippi State had 22 first downs to Arkansas' 20; the Bulldogs rung up 445 yards in total offense while Arkansas piled up 442; the time-of-possession edge for Mississippi State was a mere 70 seconds. Which is really what you would expect from a game between two bad teams playing out the string.

ELSEWHERE

Florida 70, The Citadel 19 :: Alligator Army recap (Florida)
This game officially became absurd when Chris Rainey hit 126 yards rushing with his fourth carry; he would end up with 142 on seven rushing attempts. Tim Tebow's nine completions gave him 201 yards passing, the most since the Oct. 11 demolition of LSU. When it was over, the Gators had 705 yards of total offense and their first 70-point effort since Steve Spurrier walked the sidelines.