SB Nation - Mackenzi Adams

Postseason in the the SEC

Acid Reign — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 09:00:21 -0000

3rd team All-SEC?

War Eagle, everybody. The postseason of 2009 is on us, and the regular season is over. This time last season, I think most folks were glad it was over. Of course, December 2008 would turn out to be a terribly tumultuous month! We ran a head coach and staff off, at a cost of a cool $5 million. We hired a 5-19 replacement as the new head coach. The program was quite frankly in disarray! We were the laughing stock of the SEC, hands down.

A year later, how'd that work out for us? Against long odds, Auburn's football team won more than they lost, and they won the hearts of the fans. I don't think ANY of us are ready for the season to be over! In just one season, Auburn has vaulted to a New Year's Day bowl, and a winning record. A tremendous recruiting class seems to be in the making. There are 5 other 7-5 SEC teams, and I don't think they are laughing now!

This season, the SEC will send a record ten teams to bowl games. There are some tough challenges facing the SEC. I think most of the nation would love to see the SEC fall off its high-horse and lose big this bowl season. Texas will be a tough test for the SEC Champion, and the loser of the SEC title game will have to lick their wounds and get ready for another rough test. The Sugar Bowl is likely to match unbeaten Cincinnati against the SEC runner up, and if Cincy loses, then undefeated TCU. Penn State will be an extremely tough test for offensively-challenged LSU in the Capital One Bowl. Auburn's sometimes leaky defense will be tested by Northwestern in the Outback Bowl. Might be a record for points scored in that bowl! The Cotton will be a dangerous bowl, as both Ole Miss and Oklahoma State had hoped for much bigger things, this season. Likely bowl opponents in the second tier are Virginia Tech, North Carolina, U Conn, Texas A&M, and the Houston Cougars. SEC teams need to be on their games to match the success of the past three seasons. The SEC has won 19 of its last 26 bowl games.

The net yards per pass prizes, and ruminations on the SEC Championship Game, after the jump!

At the beginning of the season, I examined the net yards per pass of the projected starters in the SEC. Now that the regular season is over, let's see how they did:

SEC Eastern Division	Record	Record	Starting	Net Yards per pass	Net Yards per pass
Team	SEC	Overall	Quarterback	End of Season	Preseason
Florida	6-0	8-0	Tim Tebow	8.1	8.6
Tennessee	4-4	7-5	Jonathan Crompton	5.5	3.8
Georgia	4-4	7-5	Joe Cox	5.7	6.6
South Carolina	3-5	7-5	Stephen Garcia	5.8	3.5
Kentucky	3-5	7-5	Mike Hartline Morgan Newton Will Fiddler	3.4 4.1 3.3	3.9
Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10	Larry Smith Mackenzi Adams	3.4 3.8	3.4 3.8

SEC Western Division	Record	Record	Starting	Net Yards per pass	Net Yards per pass
Team	SEC	Overall	Quarterback	End of Season	Preseason
Alabama	8-0	12-0	Greg McElroy	6.8	8.1
LSU	5-3	9-3	Jordan Jefferson	6.1	5.1
Ole Miss	4-4	8-4	Jevan Snead	4.9	6.3
Arkansas	3-5	7-5	Ryan Mallett	8.4	4.6
Auburn	3-5	7-5	Chris Todd	7.0	4.4
Mississippi State	3-5	5-7	Tyson Lee Chris Relf	3.4 3.2	4.9 1.4

Only three quarterbacks managed to finish at 7.0 or above, but every bowl eligible SEC team finished with a quarterback over 4.0 yards per pass. Those that did not attain 4.0 are sitting home for the holidays. It's been an odd year, in that most of the very experienced returning quarterbacks actually had statistically worse years in 2009. Tim Tebow's numbers are still good enough for second place, but he's down a half yard. Mike Hartline and Tyson Lee declined, too. Jevan Snead plunged from pre-season All-SEC 2^nd team to 9^th place in the league. Snead paced the SEC with 17 interceptions. Long-time backups Joe Cox and Greg McElroy both saw their stats shrink, thrust into starting roles. The winners in the improvement department are Ryan Mallett, Chris Todd, Stephen Garcia, and Jonathan Crompton. Crompton survived a HORRID September, to finish with a respectable 5.5 net yard per pass.

Ryan Mallett performed well enough to cause All-SEC voters to do some head-scratching. Who IS the best SEC quarterback? If you were arguing on strictly an MVP-type basis, you'd have to give the award to Mallett. Without him, Arkansas easily finishes in the West cellar. Looking at what each quarterback brings to the field, Tim Tebow ALONE makes Florida two-dimensional. However, is Arkansas' one dimension better than Florida's two? Total yards tell the tale: Mallett has 3387, and Tebow has 2962. Comparing the teams, Florida put up 5416 yards, and Arkansas 5272. To me, it's a tough comparison. I think if Tebow has a good game in the SEC title match, he'll win the All-SEC quarterback sweepstakes. If Bama's defense makes Tebow look human, it's Mallett's prize. Number three in the league HAS to be a surprise to everyone: Chris Todd. In this context, he's had a pretty amazing season.

I don't have a strong opinion on who is going to win the SEC title game. Both teams sport awesome defenses and good depth. I think Florida is a little better on offense, and a little better on special teams. And, I think Florida has the best player in the league calling the signals. I see another close Florida win, but it's certainly not carved in stone. The DUI arrest of defensive end Carlos Dunlap could be a distraction factor for the Gators. Alabama received a serious wake-up call in the Iron Bowl against Auburn. It could play out differently on the field, than on paper. I can remember ten years ago, a heavily favored Florida team was dismantled by a more motivated Bama group, 34-7. There have been surprising SEC Title game results this decade, to be sure! There was LSU's stunning 31-20 win over UT in 2001, The 34-13 LSU blowout of UGA in 2003, and Georgia's blowout of LSU in 2005. I'll watch this one for fun, as just a fan of the game! And yes, I'd rather see the West win. But I can't bring myself to say the "RT" words...

SEC Score Projections, Week 10

Year2 — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:23:42 -0000

After starting off 20-3 over the past few weeks, these score projections I do had a more modest 7-3 mark last week after missing on Ole Miss-Auburn, Mississippi State-Kentucky, and West Virginia-USF. They're now 27-6 on the season, and half the misses have come in Auburn games. I need to have a talk with Gene Chizik and Gus Malzahn about making their team not produce so much variance.

Anyway, here's this week's picks and here's an explanation of how these work. It was a chore finding decent games to pick, which doesn't bode well for finding them on TV tomorrow.

SOUTH CAROLINA at ARKANSAS

Absolute Projection: Arkansas 29 - South Carolina 23

Percentage Projection: Arkansas 27 - South Carolina 23

I am a bit skeptical of this one. For one thing, Arkansas' numbers are influenced by the 63 points they dropped on hapless Eastern Michigan (who just lost to Northern Illinois 50-6) last week. Even more than that, Arkansas is averaging just 14.6 points a game against the good defenses they've faced (Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss) while putting up 40+ on everyone else. South Carolina's defense is fairly good, so I'm not so sure the Hogs will get almost 30 in this one.

LSU at ALABAMA

Absolute Projection: Alabama 20 - LSU 10

Percentage Projection: Alabama 16 - LSU 11

This one on the other hand, I'm feeling a bit better about. Alabama has only torched one good defense all year (Virginia Tech on opening weekend), and against the good defenses they've faced in the last three games (Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee) they've averaged 18 a game. LSU, meanwhile, only managed 3 points against Florida's defense, the only one of Alabama's caliber they've faced so far. LSU's offense seems to have gotten better lately, so a few extra points on top of that sounds right.

VANDERBILT at FLORIDA

Absolute Projection: Florida 34 - Vanderbilt 0

Percentage Projection: Florida 35 - Vanderbilt 7

I don't hold out much hope for Vandy scoring too many points in this one, despite triumphant return of Mackenzi Adams. The Commodores only mustered 10 against Georgia for goodness' sake. The absolute projection sees Vandy getting just 0.38 points, with one of the two predictors for that signaling a -1.26. It could be ugly for Vandy as Florida appears to be hitting a stride.

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NON-SEC GAMES OF INTEREST

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OHIO STATE at PENN STATE

Absolute Projection: Ohio State 16 - Penn State 15

Percentage Projection: Penn State 13.37 - Ohio State 12.86

This looks to be a similar game to last year's contest, with the winner scoring somewhere in the teens. Penn State quietly has built one of the best defenses in the country, though playing a whole lot of nobodies helps with that. When the two disagree, the percentage wins (because that tends to win out in such cases, for some reason), so the Lions are the official pick here. I'll take it, because I think their defense will hassle Terrelle Pryor enough to take this one at home.

OREGON STATE at CAL

Absolute Projection: Cal 31 - OSU 29

Percentage Projection: Cal 32 - OSU 30

Cal is still clawing its way back up the polls after its back to back thrashings, but last week's close scrape with Arizona State doesn't inspire that much confidence. It looks like it'll be another close one this week as the Bears are projected to win by two, one way or another.

OKLAHOMA at NEBRASKA

Absolute Projection: Oklahoma 16 - Nebraska 15

Percentage Projection: Nebraska 15 - Oklahoma 13

This was once the marquee rivalry of the Big 8, but since the Big 12 doesn't have designated rivals like the SEC does, it has become relegated to being an only every so often affair. I am inclined to pick Oklahoma, but the numbers ever so slightly favor the home team in this one. I am a bit puzzled by Nebraska's recent collapse-like status because the Huskers have been one of the top teams in team efficiency. Then again, so has Oklahoma and they're both sitting on 5-3.

KANSAS at KANSAS STATE

Absolute Projection: Kansas 32 - KSU 26

Percentage Projection: Kansas 33 - KSU 26

If you took the Kansas State from the first half of this decade and matched it up with the Kansas from the second half of it, you'd have a darn good rivalry. As it stands today, we've got two teams whose resumes come straight from the nuthouse. If Kansas wins, the Jayhawks become bowl eligible despite not having a more impressive win to date than Duke. K-State is in the same boat despite losing to Louisiana-Lafayette. The Wildcats' run of lose-to-Texas Tech 66-14 then beat Texas A&M 62-14 in consecutive weeks is one of the stranger fortnights in recent memory.

DUKE at NORTH CAROLINA

Both Projections: Duke 20 - UNC 18

This is where you can insert your own jokes about basketball, March, and Dick Vitale. What's on the line though is Duke becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 1994 and keeping pace in the division where at 3-1, the Blue Devils are very much in the race for their first ACC title since Steve Spurrier roamed the sidelines. The Tar Heels also hit six wins with a victory, but thanks to having two I-AA wins on their slate so far, UNC has to get to seven total wins to secure a bowl.

FLORIDA STATE at CLEMSON

Absolute Projection: Clemson 36 - FSU 26

Percentage Projection: Clemson 37 - FSU 23

This is the game formerly known as the Bowden Bowl, but this year I have a feeling it'll be more about Mickey Andrews. Can his guys come up with a good performance for him after he announced his retirement? It is for that reason, and the fact that Clemson is an old Native American word for "disappointment," that I am afraid of this one not just being wrong, but very wrong.

Homecoming Week Around the SEC

Acid Reign — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 08:00:20 -0000

(Green Auburn safeties will have to keep an eye on Mims!)

War Eagle, everybody! It's a lot more fun to talk football after a big win, isn't it? We've reached the home stretch of the 2009 SEC season, and much of the league is hosting FCS and mid-major conference cupcakes, this weekend. Auburn hosts Furman, Kentucky hosts Eastern Kentucky, Georgia hosts Tennessee Tech, Tennessee hosts Memphis, and Ole Miss hosts Northern Arizona. None of those games should even be close, although we'll keep a sharp eye on the Georgia game, scouting the Bulldogs. Will the much maligned Bulldogs struggle against Tech?

There is an important matchup in the early SEC network game, this week. Arkansas hosts South Carolina, and it's a critical game for both schools. Whichever team loses that one will be saddled with the "bust" label, big-time. I'm looking out my window, and yes, I do see red and yellow leaves! That means it's time for South Carolina to start losing games in earnest. For much of the past decade, South Carolina has had fast starts, then major losses in late October and November, to finish as a third-tier bowl team or worse. Arkansas was expected to be a dark horse division contender, and much improved, this season. Alas, entering November, Arkansas is 1-4 in the league. With South Carolina, Troy, Mississippi State, and LSU left on the schedule, the Razorbacks will have to split those games to finish ahead of last season's record.

The headlining matchup this week is LSU at Alabama. Alabama can clinch the Western Division with a win. Only LSU could catch them in that event, and Alabama would own the tie breaker. LSU can take command in the division race with a win, but would likely have to win out the remainder of their schedule to actually win the division. With Ole Miss and Arkansas closing out the end of LSU's schedule, it's do-able, but it won't be easy. Ole Miss or Mississippi State COULD conceivably finish the SEC season at 5-3 and get a share of the division title, but it's unlikely, at best. Auburn could also finish at 5-3, but to catch Alabama, the Tide would have to drop all three of their remaining league games. And if the Tide does that, LSU would get a 5^th win, and LSU owns the tie-breaker against Auburn. So essentially, the SEC West is a two horse race at this point, and everyone else is jockeying for bowl position.

Incredibly, every team in the West might go to a bowl, this season! The two Mississippi teams have the hardest road. Mississippi State would have to win two of their last three, against Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss. Ole Miss needs a win over either Tennessee, LSU, or Mississippi State to become bowl-eligible. The Egg Bowl may well determine who sits home for bowl season, this year. Arkansas needs a split in their remaining schedule to make it to a bowl. I think the Razorbacks can do it. Alabama, LSU and Auburn are already bowl eligible.

Net Yards Per Pass revisited, after the jump! (Plus a small Furman preview!)

Into the last stretch of the season, let's revisit SEC net yards per pass, see how the teams are doing, and how it correlates to winning. Vanderbilt's Larry Smith has joined Kentucky's Mike Hartline on the sideline for the rest of the year, so I've included some backups on those two teams.

SEC Eastern Division	Record	Record	Starting	Net
Team	SEC	Overall	Quarterback	Yards per Pass
Florida	6-0	8-0	Tim Tebow	7.3
Georgia	3-3	4-4	Joe Cox	5.0
South Carolina	3-3	6-3	Stephen Garcia	6.0
Tennessee	2-3	4-4	Jonathan Crompton	4.7
Kentucky	1-4	4-4	Mike Hartline Morgan Newton Will Fiddler	3.9 2.0 3.2
Vanderbilt	0-5	2-7	Larry Smith Mackenzi Adams (in limited action.)	3.4 6.5

SEC Western Division	Record	Record	Starting	Net
Team	SEC	Overall	Quarterback	Yards per Pass
Alabama	6-0	8-0	Greg McElroy	6.4
LSU	4-1	7-1	Jordan Jefferson	6.3
Auburn	3-3	6-3	Chris Todd	6.9
Ole Miss	2-3	5-3	Jevan Snead	4.2
Mississippi State	2-3	4-5	Tyson Lee Chris Relf	3.8 4.3
Arkansas	1-4	4-4	Ryan Mallett	8.4

Ryan Mallett continues to defy gravity, and tops the league. Despite that, Arkansas has not been able to win SEC games against teams not named "Auburn." Tebow is second, and Auburn's Chris Todd is third. At this point in the season, the critical thing in the above stat is taking care of the ball. Every one of the quarterbacks at 6.0 or better has not thrown many interceptions. Mallett has 3 picks, Tebow has 4, Todd has 3, McElroy has 3, Jefferson has 4, and Garcia has 5. By comparison, Jevan Snead has 13 picks, Joe Cox has 12, Tyson Lee has 11, and Jonathan Crompton has 10.

Shifting gears a bit, Auburn hosts Furman at 12:30 PM CST, on pay per view only. The Paladins will enter Jordan Hare Stadium with a 4-4 record. In their only previous game against an FBS opponent, the Paladins were pounded 52-12 by Missouri in Columbia. Furman has a respectable FCS offense that averages 27.6 points per game. In most Furman losses, the defense has been the real issue. Furman is giving up 30 points per game, and over 429 yards. The defense is playing bend but don't break, and has only generated 11 turnovers in 8 games. Teams are screening and drawing the Paladins to death.

Players to watch on the Furman offense include All-Southern Conference flanker Adam Mims, who has 55 catches on the season and a couple of TDs. The Paladins also like to run the reverse to Mims, and he's averaging 8.4 yards per carry. Furman likes get the ball into the hands of this 5'9" receiver. Senior Jordan Sorrells is the quarterback, a 6'2" specimen with a solid arm. Sorrells has 14 TD passes this season, against 6 interceptions. His net yards per pass is 5.7. Keep an eye out for change-of-pace quarterback Chris Forcier, a UCLA transfer. He has yet to complete a pass this season, but he averages 6.5 yards per carry on designed runs.

We'll have an open thread up Saturday, as always. Feel free to drop in and get fired up! There won't be the usual play by play, as I'm going to have to watch the game on the road, due to not having digital cable/satellite! I have to say, this new TV package has been inconvenient. I'm going to have to switch providers, or upgrade, before next season. It drives me crazy for Auburn games to be on TV, and not on channels I get! War Eagle, and let's pound the Paladins!

Vanderbilt Preview - Friday Morning Comics

BirdGT — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 12:00:22 -0000

Let's define the state of Vanderbilt football according to Webster's:

Vanderbilt Football [van-der-bilt-foot-bawl] (n) -
1. a futile act or event
2. the smallest or weakest of a litter
3. a football program in the SEC that has only won 16% of their conference games since 2000

Vanderbilt's football team has been bad this season. It's been bad for a while but this year just plain bad. When everyone kinda thought they were turning the corner in 2008, the 2009 season went to Hell in a hand basket with losses to three beatable programs in Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Army. Vanderbilt's offense is fairly putrid only averaging 16.6 points per game (last in SEC) while their defense is managing to hold opponents to about 17.8 points per game. I'm gonna delve into why this game should not be a problem for Georgia Tech.

Run Vandy, Run
Vandy has played or will play two of our opponents this year: Mississippi State and Georgie. The MSU Bulldogs piled up 260 yards against the Commodores. Georgie accumulated 173 yards in their game against Vandy. For comparison's sake, the Moreno-less Bulldogs have averaged around 100 yards on the ground/game.

The running defense isn't the biggest of their concerns, however. The 2009 Vanderbilt squad struggles when their primary rusher, Warren Norman, is contained. Against a Mississippi State squad that gave up 213 rushing yards and four TD's to GT, the Commodores could barely manage 30 yards of rushing. The Commodores are averaging around 178 yards per game on the ground but if their MSU effort is a blueprint for how to beat the Commodores, then I have a simple message for Wommack, "Contain #27."

Warren Norman is the predominant playmaker for Vanderbilt. He's accumulated 38.1% of the Commodore's rushing yardage. Since the MSU debacle, Norman's productivity has increased to just under 50% of the Vandy rushing offense. Norman and the rest of the Vandy rushing offense have a pretty glaring issue and that's their inability to find the end zone. Vandy hasn't scored a rushing touchdown since September. The offensive line averages out to be pretty experience-heavy. The issue appears to be a lack of athleticism rather than execution. Teams have more depth and athleticism than Vandy and it shows in the red zone.

Here's all you need to know about Vandy's red zone offense: 10 red zone trips against BCS teams, 3 touchdowns. Here's all you need to know about Vandy's red zone defense: 12 trips to the red zone, 7 touchdowns. Vandy doesn't score touchdowns because they can't effectively control the ground game.

Vandy Cannot Pass
Any stats can be stretched and manipulated to make a player or team look good. Vanderbilt's passing stats are the lone exception. Vandy is dead last in passing yardage in a conference that cannot defend the pass. If you factor in the terrible sacks given up by Vandy, their offense is only averaging 4 yards per pass attempt. That's pretty futile considering the next worse is Kentucky at almost a full two yards better per attempt.

The interesting thing, to me, is the complete removal of senior Mackenzi Adams from the QB rotation. I think Vanderbilt fans have to be a little disappointed in the appointment of Larry Smith as starter and Bobby Johnson's continual starting of the sophomore. Mackenzi appeared to be the heir apparent with the departure of Chris Nickson but Johnson's confidence was with Smith. And the play of Smith has sent the Vanderbilt season down the tube. Don't expect big things from Vandy's offense. Period.

One Positive - Vandy Can Return Kickoffs
Vandy has a decent kicking game led by the Warren Norman. He's making the plays and has scored twice on kickoff returns. If we score quickly and kickoff to this guy, expect a big play and good field position for Vandy. Norman's got the speed to make plays in the return game and our kickoff coverage, barring last week's rain soaked UVA thrashing, is piss poor.

Predictions
Bird: Vandy gets beat down at home in front of roughly 35,000 Vandy fans. GT 35, VU 10.
Dane: 38-13.
Winfield: In our latest installment of the "Georgia Tech Tour de SEC", the Jackets run all over them while running 2-3 basic formations and not doing anything fancy whatsoever. GT 42 Vandy 6

Previewing Vanderbilt at South Carolina: Topics for Discussion on the Vandy Offense

Gamecock Man — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 16:14:30 -0000

More photos » by Bill Haber - AP

Huh? I am not a bum. I'm a jerk. I once had wealth, power, and the love of a beautiful woman. Now I only have two things: my friends and... uh... my thermos. Huh? My story? Okay. It was never easy for me. I was born a poor black child. I remember the days, sittin' on the porch with my family, singin' and dancin' down in Mississippi.

Browse more photos »

How bad is the Vandy offense? Vanderbilt currently ranks 92nd in total offense, 110 in scoring offense, 38th in rushing offense, and 112th in passing offense. While the rushing numbers are impressive, they're probably more indicative of a team that typically doesn't put the ball in the air and fails when they do so. Moreover, the all-important 110 in scoring offense number tells you that while Vandy may pick up a first down or two with their running game each time they get the ball, their drives eventually stall. All in all, this isn't a good offense.
Can we stop Vandy's running game? Vandy's leading rushers are freshmen Warren Norman and Zac Stacy. Both players have filled in nicely for projected starter Jared Hawkins, who has had trouble getting onto the field due to a nagging foot injury. Norman has a bit more breakaway speed than either Stacy or Hawkins, which is important for an offense that could use big plays to offset general ineptitude. Watch for Vandy to try to put him in position to make something happen. Overall, though, I think we should be able to handle these guys for most of the night; this certainly isn't 'Bama's running game, and it's not Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke, either. A good, heady performance from our defense and we're set.0
Who's the quarterback? Vandy's starting quarterback is Larry Smith, but after a few weeks of bad offense and speculation regarding Smith's status, Mackenzi Adams got into last week's game against UGA and played well. I'm thinking we'll see more Adams this week as Vandy attempts to solve its passing-game problems. Smith is a good running quarterback, but he's an erratic passer. The same could be said for Adams, who has played on and off for a few years now. You have to try something different at some point, though, and Smith hasn't been playing well.
Wildcat? At the same time, I would expect you'll see Vandy come prepared with a wildcat package for Smith, who can run it and throw it well. Vandy's coaching staff has surely seen that we've had trouble with the wildcat late in games while our defense is tired, and if the game is close enough for Vandy to run it late, I would expect they'll try their hand at the wildcat, too. Vandy has a pretty solid offensive line and the right kind of quarterback, so they could have some success with the formation. Hopefully, our coaches will have prepared our defense to counter.

An Ugly Drive Chart

Year2 — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 16:00:34 -0000

When Dr. Saturday does installments his "Life on the Margins" series every week, he uses some interesting stats to describe what happened. Swing points are his term for special teams points, defensive scores, and scoring drives of under 25 points. Wasted yards are yards gained on non-scoring drives plus penalties. Yards for points are yards gained on scoring drives.

Now, obviously a team that has been shut out will not have any yards for points. But for a team that actually scored, I can't imagine a more dismal ratio of yards for points to wasted yards:

Vanderbilt had 157 total yards against Mississippi State, and only two of them were put to use for scoring. That's right, only 1.27% of Vanderbilt's yards were on a scoring drive. This two yard "drive," by the way, actually started at the Mississippi State five yard line, not Vandy's as the chart says, after a fumble by the Bulldogs' Robert Elliott.

I honestly can't think of a more discouraging drive chart. There could be some more turnovers I suppose, but then you could at least point at some mistakes you can correct. In the Commodores' case, they didn't make the big mistake. They simply couldn't move the ball much and the one score they had was a gift.

The new look, hurry up spread offense in Nashville is clearly still a work in progress. It did gain more yards than last year's did against Mississippi State, but not topping last year's 107 yard output would have been pretty hard to do. Larry Smith's 3.9 yards per pass were noticeably higher than the 3.1 that Chris Nickson and Mackenzi Adams put together, but the ground game declined from 1.7 yards per carry to 1.1 a carry.

Mississippi State can feel somewhat good about its performance, as the Bulldogs improved in every way offensively except turnovers (which increased from zero to one) from last year. The passing game was still spotty at best, but they did rush for a respectable 4.6 yards per carry.

No matter how you slice it though, this was an ugly game between these two teams. You'd be forgiven if you saw the 15-3 final and assumed that all the points were on field goals (MSU had a touchdown with a failed conversion). That drive chart for Vanderbilt still just sticks with me for some reason. I won't say that Vandy can't overcome this and make a bowl, because the Commodores lost to Mississippi State a year ago, but at 1-2 with the entire SEC East plus Ole Miss to go, it's not looking good for a repeat.

Comparison: Vanderbilt versus Miami University and WCU

Year2 — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 17:30:33 -0000

Since we only have a week of football under our belts, the only thing we can do right now for comparison's sake is look at what teams did last year versus what they did this year. So with that in mind, let's take a look at how Vanderbilt did against Miami University last year and Western Carolina this year.

I don't mean to suggest that Miami and WCU are on the same level, because Miami is a better team all around. Vanderbilt simply didn't play a I-AA team last year, and Miami was Vanderbilt's worst opponent. That's why I chose it as the comparison point.

As with previous comparisons, sack yardage has been taken out of the rushing totals.

OFFENSE

CATEGORY	VS. MIAMI	VS. WCU
Total Yards	371	626
Passing	91	187
Yds. per Pass	5.7	7.5
Rushing	280	439
Yds. Per Rush	5.8	6.4
Turnovers	2	1
Time of Poss.	32:43	34:44
Sacks All.	2 (-11 yards)	1 (-6 yards)

If any of you had Vanderbilt as the team that would run the most number of offensive plays over the weekend, take a bow. The Commodores' new hurry up offense resulted in 95 offensive plays run against the Catamounts. The per pass and per rush rates were up, as you would expect when you drop back to a I-AA opponent, but it was the blizzard of plays that helped Vandy come relatively close to doubling the yardage they got against Miami.

The improvement in passing is encouraging, especially when you look and see that Larry Smith personally threw for 8.5 yards a pass. That's notable considering that neither Chris Nickson nor Mackenzi Adams reached that rate against anyone in 2008 and they hit 8.5 yards per pass a combined five times over the past three seasons.

DEFENSE

CATEGORY	VS. MIAMI	VS. WCU
Total Yards	375	138
Passing	244	74
Yds. per Pass	5.8	2.8
Rushing	131	64
Yds. Per Rush	6.0	3.0
Turnovers	3	4
Time of Poss.	27:17	25:16
Sacks For	3 (-35 yards)	3 (-23 yards)

I don't really know enough about either Miami University or WCU to say how big an improvement this is for the Vanderbilt defense. What I can say is that Vanderbilt's defense was better in almost every way against WCU than Tennessee's was against WKU. I doubt we can draw too many conclusions from that, other than that Vandy's defense is going to be very good again.

It's always tough judging things from games against I-AA opponents, but Vanderbilt's game against WCU went about as well as could be expected. Smith went down in the second half, but it turned out only to be stomach cramps. He'll be ready to go on Saturday against LSU in one of the more interesting games of the day.

Previous Comparison: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee.

Airmail That Thing!

Acid Reign — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 08:30:12 -0000

Chris Todd trips, and shovels the ball to Ben Tate for a 27-yard gain!

War Eagle, everybody! Today's post will take a look at returning SEC quarterbacks, and their chances in 2009. As usual, a few stars return, and a whole lot of guys hoping to step up. Few would argue that Tim Tebow is one of the best in the country, and it's pretty certain that big numbers will be expected of Jevan Snead and Ryan Mallett. Beyond that, it's a slate of guys that had questionable stats, limited starts, or both.

It's been argued in numerous places in the past, that if you're going to pick one stat (other than wins and losses), as an indicator of a team's success, it would be "net yards per pass." (Google that quote, if you'd like to read more on the logic.) To figure net yards per pass, take passing yards, subtract out 50 yards for each interception, and subtract sack yardage. Divide the result by the number of passing attempts. The interception penalty is a sort of a median guess as to how much field position an interception costs a team. Since interceptions and sacks kill drives, they are important.

Whether a team runs to set up the pass, or passes to set up the run, net yards per pass is an important stat. A high rating indicates a preponderance of big plays, which leads to high scores. A low rating indicates that defenses can pack it in close to the line of scrimmage, and stifle the offense. Even a predominately run-oriented team must be able to be a threat passing, to have success. The two teams that threw least in 2008, Florida and Alabama, ended up in the SEC Championship game. However, their yards per pass stats were 1^st, and 4^th, respectively. Let's look at the results from 2008:

East

Team	Net Yards Per Pass	Opponent	SEC Division Finish
Florida	8.0	2.2	1st
Georgia	7.5	4.6	2nd
Vanderbilt	2.4	3.0	3rd
South Carolina	2.9	3.5	4th
Tennessee	3.7	2.9	5th
Kentucky	3.6	4.7	6th

West

Team	Net Yards Per Pass	Opponent	SEC Division Finish
Alabama	5.3	3.7	1st
Ole Miss	6.0	4.1	2nd
LSU	3.9	5.2	3rd
Arkansas	4.4	5.1	4th
Auburn	3.4	4.0	5th
Mississippi State	3.2	4.9	6th

Some of the teams that finished highly in yards per pass, finished with mediocre records. Why? Because they gave up high net yards per pass to their opponents. LSU and Arkansas come to mind. The team with the poorest yards per pass average, Vanderbilt, actually won a bowl game. The reason? They finished 3^rd in defending net yards per pass. 20 interceptions will always help your win column!

Teams that finish at 4.0 or better tend to sustain drives and score points. Conversely, holding an opponent below 4.0 keeps them from getting first downs, and keeps them off the scoreboard. With those concepts in mind, let's take a look at the career numbers for the returning SEC starters:

East

Team	Quarterback	Career Net Yards Per Pass
Florida	Tim Tebow	8.6
Georgia	Joe Cox	6.6
Vanderbilt	Mackenzi Adams Larry Smith	3.8 3.4
South Carolina	Stephen Garcia	3.5
Tennessee	Jonathan Crompton	3.8
Kentucky	Mike Hartline	3.9

West

Team	Quarterback	Career Net Yards Per Pass
Alabama	Greg McElroy	8.1
Ole Miss	Jevan Snead	6.3
LSU	Jordan Jefferson Jarrett Lee	5.1 4.0
Arkansas	Ryan Mallett	4.6
Auburn	Chris Todd	4.4
Mississippi State	Tyson Lee Chris Relf	4.9 1.4

Along with media favorites Tim Tebow and Jevan Snead, are some surprises: Greg McElroy and Joe Cox. The latter two haven't played as much, and one might be tempted to throw out the results because of insufficient data. I think you have to remember that the whole offensive team helps create the stat. With good talent around them, I think McElroy and Cox will do well, this year.

Where does this analysis leave Auburn? Chris Todd is currently ranked last in the West. Were Auburn in the East, Todd would rank 3^rd. In the SEC overall, Todd finishes 8^th. It's not all gloom and doom, though. Todd put up most of that stat with a bad throwing arm, and in a dysfunctional offense. And Todd still managed to beat out six quarterbacks on the list above! Just about every facet of the Auburn offense looks to have improved over the off-season, including a beefed up line, better receiver play, and a surgically repaired arm. While most quarterbacks improve with experience, we should see quite a jump for Todd, this year.

Another quarterback who should improve dramatically is Ryan Mallett, of Arkansas. Mallett compiled his stats as a freshman in Lloyd Carr's moribund Michigan offense. Under Bobby Petrino, Casey Dick finished 5^th in the league last season. With a gun like Mallett has, the sky's the limit!

Some of the guys starting this year at quarterback will struggle. Much of that is due to new systems and suspect supporting casts. Jonathan Crompton's had to learn his 3^rd college offense, and it's a fairly complicated West Coast scheme, too. Crompton's best deep threat, Gerald Jones, is out. Mississippi State is sorely lacking playmakers on the offensive side of the ball, beyond Anthony Dixon. The same could be said of Kentucky, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt.

Just think, folks! We've got one week left, just ONE WEEK, before the SEC season kicks off! I can't wait to be in front of my TV, for the Gamecocks' battle with N. C. State! It's going to be another exciting year!

2009 Opponent Previews - Vanderbilt

Will — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 15:21:32 -0000

More photos » by Mark Humphrey - AP

He's checking to make sure the official didn't say a dirty word.

Browse more photos »

We'll wrap up our opponent previews with Vanderbilt and Kentucky this morning, before turning our attention to the final competitive scrimmage of fall camp, which kicks at 12:21 this afternoon to simulate conditions for Western Kentucky. Look for our contribution to Team Speed Kills' SEC Preview tomorrow.

The Series

Once General Neyland showed up with the mandate to beat the Commodores, the Vols have mostly done just that: Tennessee leads 70-27-5 against the Commodores, and Vandy has won only once since 1982, in the infamous 2005 season.

Last Year

The downward spiral of Tennessee's season finally stopped in Nashville, though Fulmer's fate was already sealed and there would be no bowl game in UT's future. Still, the Vols used key interceptions from Brent Vinson and Eric Berry to keep Vanderbilt's offense at bay, and despite more mistakes from every quarterback who touched the ball, the Vols found enough offense to score a 20-10 win. Still, Vanderbilt found a way to win six games - including wins over South Carolina, Ole Miss and Auburn that put the Dores in the Top 25 early on - and play in (and win) their first bowl game in decades. Bobby Johnson has raised the bar. The next goal is consistency.

Vanderbilt Offense

Mackenzi Adams returns at quarterback, though if he struggles with consistency again you might see others get a shot under center. And Jared Hawkins has experience in the backfield. There are several question marks at wide receiver, but the Dores do get Terence Jeffers, a UCONN transfer who led the Huskies in receptions in 2007. All five starters return on the offensive line...there's potential here.

Vanderbilt Defense

The defense was a big reason the Dores found success last year, and they'll have a chance to duplicate that feat in 2009, perhaps with an additional boost from the offense. Three players with starting experience return up front, and linebackers Patrick Benoist and Chris Marve are both playmakers. DJ Moore is in the NFL, but Myron Lewis is back at the other corner spot and could fill Moore's role as the best player on this team.

Best Case Scenario for the Vols

On Senior Day, the Vols score a big win over Vanderbilt and send the seniors off in style. Simply put, if the Vols could beat Vanderbilt last year, there's no reason they can't overwhelm them again this year. The Dores may have gotten bowl eligible last year and could sneak in there again this year, but Kiffin can keep them squarely as an afterthought in the minds of Vol fans.

Worst Case Scenario for the Vols

Vanderbilt gets bowl eligible again, the Vols stay home again, and both feats are accomplished with a VU win in Knoxville. There's enough experience in Nashville from guys who are all more and more accustomed to winning to make Vanderbilt no longer a sure W. There would still be no more embarrassing SEC loss than this one for Tennessee.

Game Importance Ranking: 7.4

Vanderbilt knows its place behind the Vols right now - no reason for things to be any different under Kiffin. No matter how much the Vols may struggle this season, this is not a game any Tennessee fan would excuse away.

ATVSQBPI: Past is Prologue

Richard Pittman — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 09:30:14 -0000

Former Kentucky quarterback Andre Woodson put on his old jersey and celebrated his pretty good ATVSQBPI from 2007.

You wanted more information about the And The Valley Shook Quarterback Productivity Index, and I am here to give it to you. I have the data going back three years in the SEC. The first year can be found here, and we will reproduce it for this post.

Again, reminding you that the formula is as follows:

ATVSQBPI = (yards passing + yards rushing - yards lost by sack + 20*Number of Touchdowns - 30*Number of Interceptions)/(Number of pass attempts + rush attempts).

The explanation for why we use this particular formula is found here, but realize we are not using the complete formula because First Down stats are not quite as readily available, and it should pretty much wash out anyway. Plus, we've all gotten used to the scale this particular metric gives us.

Would you like to see 2006 and 2007? How about after the jump?

2008:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	8.73
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	8.49
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss	7.84
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.87
Casey Dick, Arkansas	5.68
Jarrett Lee, LSU	5.56
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.12
Jordan Jefferson, LSU	5.11
Nick Stephens, Tennessee	5.10
Kodi Burns, Auburn	5.02
Chris Nickson, Vandy	5.01
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina	4.95
Tyson Lee, Mississippi State	4.86
Mike Hartline, Kentucky	4.77
Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee	4.34
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	4.03
Chris Todd, Auburn	4.02
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	2.85

Alright, we've been through those numbers once before. Let's take a look at 2007:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	9.11
Ryan Perrilloux, LSU	8.20
Erik Ainge, Tennessee	7.12
Andre Woodson, Kentucky	6.89
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	6.78
Casey Dick, Arkansas	6.15
Matt Flynn, LSU	6.08
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina	5.81
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.69
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.62
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	5.16
Seth Adams, Ole Miss	5.03
Brandon Cox, Auburn	5.00
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	4.73

What are my take-away messages from this?:

Numbers were generally better in 2007 than they were in 2008.
Wesley Carroll was the worst starting QB in the SEC in both 2008 and 2007.
Tebow was a little better in his Heisman year than in his junior year. Or at least, he was a little more productive.
You really can win with average QB play, if you consider that LSU won the national championship with middle of the pack quarterback play in 2007, while Auburn was a pretty decent team with one of the least effective QBs in the conference. It sure makes it easier, though, if you're really good.
Just look at Ryan Perrilloux. That's what we didn't have in 2008. Well, that and a defense.
Andre Woodson was held back by his awful rushing numbers (not shown).

Let's move on to 2006, in which I lift the numbers straight from my old website:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Jamarcus Russell, LSU	9.16
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina	8.26
Erik Ainge, Tennessee	8.07
Andre Woodson, Kentucky	7.79
Chris Leak, Florida	7.02
Syvelle Newton, South Carolina	7.00
Casey Dick, Arkansas	6.99
Chris Nickson, Vandy	6.55
Brandon Cox, Auburn	6.37
John Parker Wilson, Bama	6.14
Omarr Conner, Mississippi State	6.13
Michael Henig, Mississippi State	5.82
Matthew Stafford, UGA	5.78
Mitch Mustain, Arkansas	5.68
Brent Schaeffer, Ole Miss	4.27

What are my take-home messages from 2006?:

Jamarcus Russell had the best ATVSQBPI of any quarterback between the years 2006 and 2008.
But on the other hand, numbers in general declined steadily in those years. Just look at John Parker Wilson. His ATVSQBPI actually fell each year he was a starter, but his ranking increased. Some of the worst QBs in the league in 2006 would have been pretty average in 2008 with the same production. Look at where Omarr Conner and Michael Henig would have ranked in 2008? Does this mean that Michael Henig was as good a quarterback in 2006 as John Parker Wilson was in 2008? Heck no. The steady decline of the mean from year to year, and the reduction in production of John Parker Wilson as he went from sophomore to senior, suggest the reduction is due mostly to better defenses.
Look at the steady progression of Matthew Stafford.
What the heck happened to Blake Mitchell?

If you have any additional thoughts, I welcome you sharing them.