SB Nation - Evan Sharpley

Raking The Muck: St. Michael Rises Again

CW — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:36:39 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

about 1 month ago: FILE - In this Sept. 5, 2009, file photo, Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd heads upfield after making a catch during NCAA college football game against Nevada in South Bend, Ind. Floyd will play against Navy on Saturday, six weeks after breaking his left collarbone. Coach Charlie Weis said Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2009, that the 6-foot-3, 220-pound sophomore was cleared to play Monday for the No. 19 Fighting Irish. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy, File)

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A lot ofimportant stuff in regards to injuries in Coach Weis' Tuesday. First, the good:

Michael Floyd is cleared to play for the Navy game (!!!!!). Floyd had 13 catches for 358 yards and five touchdowns before going down with a broken collarbone in the Michigan State game. With Golden Tate playing at the level he is, Jimmy is going to have a field day back there.
Robbie Parris is also back after Taylor Mays' attempted homicide. It's nice to see college football writers across the country starting to realize that Mays isn't actually a top-tier safety in the Eric Berry/Earl Thomas/Kyle McCarthy-mold, but really just a head hunter who we all were led into thinking was good. I was guilty of it as much as anyone, but writers are redeeming themselves nicely in noticing this, although it'll be interesting to see if NFL scouts pick up on it. (Probably not.) Nice to see Parris back, especially since Robby Toma and Duval Kamara have got some reps in his absence. Receiving corps is looking particularly deep now.

And the not so good:

Back-up quarterback and heir apparent to the throne whenever Jimmy leaves, Dayne Crist, is out 4-to-6 months with a torn ACL. He could be back for spring practice, but nothing is certain there. If you were on the Notre Dame message boards this week, you might have been as surprised as I was to find that A) Only Notre Dame players enter the draft early and B) Only Notre Dame players get injured. I should start selling "Hold me, I'm Irish" t-shirts on this site for all of the emo Fighting Irish fans, we'd make a killing.
Trevor Robinson is doubtful for Navy, and Armando Allen is day-to-day. If I had my druthers, I'd try to limit their action against the Midshipmen and get everyone up to one hundred percent for the throwdown with Pitt next Saturday night.

The most important things from these bullets are obviously St. Michael's return and Crist's injury. The offense might almost be unstoppable with Floyd back, but sadly, getting a big fourth quarter lead will mean increased reps for Evan Sharpley, who won't be on the team next season. John Goodman will now be your emergency third string quarterback, so um, Wildcat anyone?

We'll get into a more extensive look at the team in the coming weeks, but I'm very worried about the Irish basketball team this season. Even though they are playing an embarrassingly awful non-conference schedule, the Big East is still really good and Scott Martin's injury was an absolute killer. Martin was the second most important player on the team after first-team preseason All-American Luke Harangody, as was going to fill in the Kurz/Ayers roll as big forward who could shoot perfectly. Now we have a team that goes seven deep and relies on three-point shooting, only there are about two shooters you'd feel comfortable with.

Oh, what is it that you're drinking there, Seth Davis? May I have a sip?

Oh yeah, indeed:

Maybe I'm overreacting to one practice, but this team was bigger, deeper and more talented than I anticipated. Clearly, the Irish do not have much margin for error, and they certainly cannot afford any more injuries. But they've got the best player in the league, if not the country, and that's not a bad place to start. Notre Dame might have a low ceiling, but it also has a pretty high floor. Write it down: The Gody is going back to the NCAA tournament.

During the course of the article, Davis praises everyone on the team for something and compares Tim Abromaitis to Matty Carroll. I obviously hope he's right, but I'm going to maintain some skepticism until we actually see it mesh on the floor. The first non-tomato can for the Irish is Northwestern on November 27. They'll then play either Saint Louis or Iowa State, with the only opportunity for a big non-conference win coming December 19, when the UCLA Bruins roll into town. The Big East slate isn't as tough as it was last year with UConn and Louisville twice, but it's still not going to be easy. I will leave you with my single favorite part of the story:

When Cleveland Cavaliers general manager Danny Ferry told Harangody that the Cavs considered former Louisville forward Earl Clark a better pro prospect, Harangody told him, "I have a f------ problem with that."

Staying over at SI.com, Stewart Mandel spends part of his mailbag advocating a plus-one plan. If you frame the plus-one as a natural step to getting to a playoff, then I can accept it. If you frame it as some sort of cure to the many ills of the collegiate football postseason, you're an idiot. Tell me, if we're using the "Mandel Plan," what do you do in years like 2002 or 2005, when you have two clear, undefeated teams at the top heading into the bowls? Or, even more fun, what about in years like 2007, when it's a giant clusterf*ck? Who would play in the plus-one game then? LSU vs. USC? Or Georgia? Or Kansas? Or West Virginia?

Mandel tacks this onto the bottom:

I'm sure I will now be deluged with 800 e-mails picking my proposal apart, but keep one thing in mind before you hit send: There's at least a glimmer of hope the Mandel Plan could become reality (the SEC and ACC are already open to a plus-one), whereas any larger playoff proposal -- no matter how many political action committees form to support it -- still has a 0.0 percent chance of getting adopted any time soon.

Great, so I'm supposed to be excited your shitty plan has a chance to come into reality? Awesome. Thanks for that caveat, Stewart.

In the latest College Football Is Going To Hell News, they just added the Dallas Bowl for New Year's Day 2011. What esteemed program will you see play on what used to be a holy day for college football? I'm glad you asked!

Jan. 1, 2011 -- Big Ten (No. 6 team) vs. Big 12 (No. 7 team)
Jan. 1, 2012 -- Big Ten (No. 6 team) vs. Conference USA team
Jan. 1, 2013 -- Big Ten (No. 6 team) vs. Big 12 (No. 7 team)
Jan. 1, 2014 -- Big Ten (No. 6 team) vs. Conference USA team

Can I set my Tivo now?! Gee golly, can't wait to see Purdue and and UTEP square off while I'm nursing a hangover. IS NOTHING SACRED TO YOU PEOPLE?!

Mid-Term Report Card: Grading The Irish On Their Bye Week

CW — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 16:16:38 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

3 months ago: In this photo taken on Saturday, Sept. 5, 2009, Notre Dame center Eric Olsen lines upp against Nevada during an NCAA college football game in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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There is obviously gigantic room for debate on almost all of these positions, but this is what I'm starting with. I went back and forth on a lot of them, but since they are just completely arbitrary grades, be gentle. In general, I think I was very demanding with the offense and a little more lenient with the defense, with games later in the season being weighed as more important, especially with young players.

Quarterbacks: A

I think this is the only legitimate grade here, right? James Clausen currently has the highest passer efficiency rating in the country. He leads the country in yards per attempt, has twelve touchdowns to two interceptions (one of which was a Hail Mary-type throw at the end of a first half, the other a perfect toss to Armando Allen that was volleyball set right to the defender). He is moving around in the backfield a thousand times better than last year, feeling the rush, avoiding it and stepping into the pocket to deliver smart bombs. With all of the natural biases and hatred harbored against him (some of his own doing, like the entire College Football Hall of Fame thing, some not), he has forced himself into the Heisman conversation and onto Kiper's big board. He's led four consecutive fourth quarter comebacks (the first of them forgotten after a failure to run out the clock and Forcier's counterpunch), he appears to be an awesome tutor and supporter for his understudy, his teammates seem to absolutely love him and he has great celebrations, from understated fist pumps, to jumping into a lineman's arms, to simply flashing the guns, like he did after the touchdown pass to Rudolph.

The only bad things I can say about Clausen at this point are that he was erratic in the first quarter against Michigan before settling into cold-blooded killer mode (which he did by halftime when he gave his team the lead) and that awful lateral/pass that got returned for a touchdown against Washington. Really, that's about it. He hasn't missed a beat with the loss of Michael Floyd, and as long as he's in the game, Irish fans can feel very good about their chances.

As far as his back-up goes, Crist has done a great job in relief, even though all of the bubble wrap hasn't even been removed yet. He led a bunch of great drives in the Purdue game and showed off his arm in mop-up time versus Nevada. Evan Sharpley continues to look astute on the sideline and I'm very confident in his ability to come into a game and handle business if need be.

Running Backs: B+

I originally had this as a "B," but then I started thinking about how Armando Allen was a top fifteen rusher before Purdue and how he simply destroyed Michigan. Or how successful the Wildcat was against Michigan State in the red zone, including that touchdown pass from AA. Then how even though Allen couldn't go late against the Huskies, Robert Hughes put the team on his shoulders and just cranked out tough yard after tough yard, including the critical two-point conversion (probably) and game-winning touchdown. Hughes was attempting to shed his "Thunder" label earlier in the season, but has embraced his role as a power guy - a quick one, but not a dancing back - and made a statement to fans and the coaching staff that he's back.

Save for a few young mistakes, the help in pass blocking has also been very good, assisting the offensive line in their efforts to protect QB1. You'd like to see Jonas Gray a little farther along (his fumble versus Michigan was a killer), but Theo Riddick has shown some pop as a freshman (admittedly, on a scant seven carries). When you consider that the starting fullback has been out since the opener and both Allen and Hughes are averaging over five yards a carry on the season, I think the "+" is acceptable here.

Wide Receivers: A-

This should probably be a straight "A" for the absurd efforts of Golden Tate and the late St. Michael Floyd (COLLARBOOOOONE), but I'm knocking it down a little bit because A) No one has clearly stepped up to replace Floyd opposite Tate and B) Every time they show St. Michael on the sideline in civilian attire, a little more of my heart breaks. (Plus I'm trying to be overly pessimistic here to get street cred with the dregs of the messageboards.)

Michael Floyd was on his way to an all-world season when his fragile clavicle betrayed him. He would get an A for his efforts so far this season, because from his absolute domination of Nevada to the gravity-defying touchdown against Michigan, he was perfection. Following a few dropsies in the Michigan game, Golden Tate took it upon himself to double his efforts in his wingmate's absence, catching the winning touchdown against Michigan State, switching to a running back/Wildcat to help out Crist against Purdue and setting up the touchdown in overtime against Washington. Versus the Huskies, Tate had ten touches for 275 yards of offense, which is patently absurd. His sweat glands also seemingly secrete some sort of grease that makes him impossible to wrap up and tackle, which is a handy talent for a receiver to have.

After the very top of the depth chart, things get a little hazy. Almost as if the stats were trying to prove my point for me, Duval Kamara, Robby Parris and Shaq Evans each have seven catches on the season. Parris has a touchdown, Evans has been steadily trending upward (4 for 34 in the last game) and sadly, Deion Walker hasn't gotten much burn at all. Tate and Kyle Rudolph force the defense to pay a lot of attention to two players, so it would be nice if this second tier could really take a step forward against Southern Cal, either collectively or with one lone wolf taking the leap and wrestling control of a starting spot.

Tight ends: B+

Kyle Rudolph has two go-ahead fourth quarter touchdowns in the last two weeks and is simply an impossible match-up against most teams. (Sadly, Southern Cal can just throw Taylor Mays on him, which could be the most interesting showdown of them all on the 17^th.) Rudolph's run blocking could be a little more dominant, but he's such a force in the passing game, I can honestly say "Who cares?". Bobby Burger has done a great job in his role as back-up tight end/H-back/fullback, although he's not really a threat in the passing game at this point. (He also had a bad false start at the goal line versus Washington which was very much not good.) The lack of fun, sexy Mike Ragone times - or really any depth at the position - is troubling, and why this group also takes slight nick.

Offensive line: B+

I'm not going to even pretend like I can explain to you the particulars of how an offensive line works, why this one is working well or what the great individual plays have been, but I can say this: after the debacle of the last couple years, this line is significantly better in every capacity. How much of that to credit to Coach Verducci and how much goes to the natural maturing process of young linemen, I have no idea, but I'll take it. Clausen has been kept clean most of the season - there have been some issues at the tackles with speedy defensive ends on obvious passing downs - and the running game has oscillated between "perfectly effective" and "absolutely dominant," so I couldn't be prouder. The tackles have struggled a little, but you can't say enough about the interior of the line just consistently dominating up the point of attack. Some unnecessary false starts and certain plays just falling apart from the word "go" knock the grade down a little, if only because they are very much avoidable and unacceptable for a veteran corps.

Defensive line: B-

This was going to be a lot lower before the Washington game, but after the trio of goal line stands, I have to heap some credit onto the guys up front. There is a definite trend upwards in the last two games, as the unit helped to suffocate a good Purdue running attack before repeatedly stone-walling Jake Locker. After having only two tackles the entire season prior to last Saturday's game, Kerry Neal had seven against the Huskies. KLM had another seven, while Ethan Johnson had five. Everyone up front has a handful of tackles for loss, and again, I think every Irish fan is pretty happy with how things are moving over the last couple games.

This unit is extremely young, but you can see lights starting to click, as Ian Williams is shedding blockers at the point of attack and the Johnson/KLM combo becomes more and more active. John Ryan has even gotten into the act, with a sack, a tackle for loss and a deflected pass. Bonus points tacked on for Johnson's extra point block versus Michigan State, which cancelled out one of the few Nick Tausch miscues of the season. There is a long way to go, but there are positive signs that the opponent's offensive line is going to have more and more difficulty as the season progresses. (Hopefully.)

Linebackers: C-

Again, trending upward, but there have just been too many missed tackles and not enough big plays to justify a high grade here. Some of it could be the youth attempting to adjust to Tenuta's scheme, but the blitzes aren't getting there, and when they do, there seems to be a strong aversion to wrapping up. (Brian Smith's shoulder block on Polk late in the Washington game is a perfect example of these troubles.) Barely anyone finishes runners off, and pass coverage is not what you would expect with a bunch of very athletic guys out there. In Tenuta's scheme linebackers are supposed to shine, but that is not happening through five games.

Before an injury hampered him against the Huskies, Darius Fleming was slowly starting to emerge, with seven tackles for loss and two sacks. Brian Smith has been solid, although he hasn't approached the ceiling some Irish fans thought he had in the preseason. The shining, sparkling gem of the group is Manti Teo, who had his reins loosened considerably against Washington and responded with ten tackles. As Tate, Floyd and Rudolph took the receiving corps to the next level, hopefully Teo can lead the advancement of the linebackers to an elite unit. The talent is there, but until tackling becomes more certain and coverage tighter, this group will have a lot of room for improvement.

Kyle McCarthy: A

Remainder of the Secondary: D

First off, let us bask in the glow of McCarthy's season thus far. Forty-nine tackles, three picks (one of which saved the Michigan State game, another turning the Michigan game in Notre Dame's favor), two passes broken up and a huge (CLEAN) hit on fourth down to end the Washington game. McCarthy's season has been so good that when he didn't dive to catch Locker's fluttering pass near the end of regulation, everyone was surprised and/or disappointed. He almost never misses a tackle, wrapping up perfectly every time - and there are a lot of times. He's almost always in the right place at the right time and without him, this Irish team would almost assuredly be well below .500.

The rest of the secondary? Not so good. Whether they're having the same troubles as the linebacking corps in adjusting to Tenuta's scheme, or simply being instructed to play soft coverage, there just have barely been any plays made by the defensive backfield. Outside of McCarthy, the unit has two picks on the year and many, many more misplayed balls that turned potential interceptions into big plays for the opponent. Tate Forcier and Kirk Cousins both looked like Heisman candidates against the Irish, and Joey Elliott wasn't far behind. Notre Dame is 105^th in the nation in pass defense, (linebackers struggling with coverage have assisted with this number) and with McCarthy's sterling play, that's simply unacceptable. Going into the season this is the unit many Irish fans had the most faith in, and so far in 2009, that trust has not been justified.

Special Teams: B

On one hand, Nick Tausch has been nearly perfect in his role as placekicker, basically winning the Washington game with his foot. On the other hand, there are still no touchbacks on kickoffs, kickoff coverage has not been stellar and punting has been so bad that Weis had to make a switch before the last game. Theo Riddick has shown a nice burst in the kick return game, but really the only good thing consistently happening on special teams is the marked improvement of the place-kicking. This was originally lower, but after so many seasons of the field goal kicking being an adventure, there's a nice bump for consistency in that realm.

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There is a lot to talk about here, and this is just an attempt at being a conversation starter. So please, play nice, use YouTube/stats whenever possible, and most importantly, enjoy your weekend.

Four Star Quarterbacks, Success, Failure, and What Michigan Football can Expect out of Tate Forcier

Maize n Brew Dave — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 17:33:59 -0000

As a general rule, highly rated quarterback recruits are the crown jewel of any school's recruiting class. Sure you can bring in a #1 Linebacker or a #1 Offensive Tackle, but those guys don't score points and their faces aren't plastered all over ABC or CBS every fall Saturday. Offenses simply don't work without an able bodied/minded signal caller under center.

But high school kids rarely turn out to be the person we thought they'd be coming out of high school. While Dr. Saturday has pointed out on numerous occasions (link no longer available) that a 5* player is far more likely than a 4* or 3* player to make the NFL, for some reason a 5* is far more likely to get himself arrested than a 4* or 3* (from the 2005 class at least). You get your five star flame outs (Ryan Perrilloux) far more often than your #1DC's like Matt Stafford, and you're just as likely to be starting a three star quarterback that you recruited as "insurance" than your four/five star savior.

For Michigan, this is not welcome news. Since the departure of five star rated Chad Henne, Michigan has gone from five star rated Ryan Mallett to no star rated Nick Sheridan to four star rated Steven Threet, back to Sheridan, then to two star Justin Feagin, to Threet, to Sheridan, and now, finally, to four star rated Tate Forcier. Looking at the preceding list, it's easy to disillusioned by the rankings process. Mallett transferred, Threet transferred (again), Sheridan was basically useless, and Feagin is being switched to receiver. As a result, Michigan will be starting a first year quarterback for the second straight year.

Despite Michigan's string of bad luck under center last year, it has failed to temper the enthusiasm of the Wolverine faithful when talking about Tate Forcier's first snaps. While (thankfully) this enthusiasm hasn't gone all Beano Cook, it is palpable when you talk to a Michigan fan. And to his credit, Forcier has done something to stoke that fire. Four passing touchdowns and one running touchdown in your spring game, your first anything against college competition, will get people excited.

Oddly, in watching that video the first thing that jumps out at me is not, OMG Savior!, it's "our defense is going to be baaaaaaaaaaad." But I digress. Watching this video is incredibly reassuring for any Michigan fan who had to sit through or pour over bad video of last year's spring practice. Combined, IIRC, Threet and Sheridan combined for 6 turnovers and no touchdowns via the air in 2008. And that performance was turned in against what proved to be the worst Michigan defense in Michigan history. I'm just saying.

So it's kind of hard to truly judge what we can expect out of Forcier against live competition, you know, the kind that will actually try to tackle him. Last year's quarterback play set the bar very low. But, Forcier seems to have the unique abilities required to run Rodriguez system. Tate showed the ability to throw on the run. Go deep. Scramble out of a sack. Not spike himself. These are good things.

Last year Michigan quarterbacks combined to go an abysmal 165/338 for 1718 yards, 11TD/12INT and a miserable combined QB rating of 95.2. Nick Sheridan's numbers alone make you cringe, a QB rating of 81.1 and a 2/5 TD/INT ratio despite starting a handful of games. If you just threw up a little in your mouth, you're not alone. Say what you want about changing systems, these guys were not and are not good quarterbacks in any system with numbers like that. Last year Forcier's numbers look like a shiny beacon in comparison. 208/326 for 3424 yards, 23/15 TD/INT ratio, 783 yards rushing on 92 attempts, and 12 rushing TDs. But lets break this down a bit.

For context on the competition, Forcier's High School, Scripps Ranch, is a Division II South school in California. Scripps is in the middle tier high school division for California schools with enrollment between 2400 and 1100 kids. The bigger Division I schools have enrollment from 2400 and up [some almost reaching 5000 enrollment]. Scripps is one of the larger Division II schools with enrollment around 2100. So he definitely facing decent competition, he's just not facing a Long Beach Poly kind of talent pool (4600+ kids).

Now, onto the numbers. One thing that jumps out at me is the 2 to 1 TD/INT ratio in 2008. Forcier, if you look at his numbers, had his best season as a HS junior where he was 21/5 TD/INT. But that's two years ago, with different personnel. Last year in 12 games, Forcier had just three games without an INT, and threw 2 picks or more in five games. Tate's playoff numbers were a mixed bag, throwing for over 300 yards in one game, but tossing a combined 5 picks in both play off games he played in. The glass half empty kind of person can take that as Tate wilting under pressure.

But the reality is that's far from the case. Scripps was a good, but not great team last year going 8-4. Their second round bow-out from the DII playoffs was against 12-0-1 Oceanside, the defending state champs, who won their fifth consecutive Division II section title in 2008. Forcier scored both TDs in the loss for Scripps, and a look at the boxscore shows there's not a lot you can do when you give up 28 points in the 4th quarter. Looking at the results, you'll note a couple of games where Scripps gave up 40+ points, including 70(!) to the eventual state champs, Cathedral. FWIW, Forcier was 21/36 for 295 yards, 4TDs and 1INT in the Cathedral game.

What all this means is Michigan is getting a kid who has taken his lumps, knows what it's like to get planted, and has played well against higher levels of competition. Is he the Rich Rod savior we've been hoping for? Chances are we're not going to know for a while. After the jump you'll find the Rivals rankings for every quarterback receiving four stars or higher since 2005, and a few three stars of note. Of this group, over five years, you're only going to find five or six quarterbacks that jump off the page at you. Three of those page jumpers are: Tebow, Bradford, and McCoy. Surprisingly, Bradford and McCoy were three star recruits.

If it seems like things are a little off moving towards 2005, you're right. In '05 Rivals handed out only thirteen four star plus ratings to quarterbacks. In 2009, Rivals handed out twenty five four star plus ratings, nearly double the 2005 amount. In my opinion, this might have something to do with the precipitous drop in production from 4* plus players. When you're handing out high ratings like candy, eventually you degrade the overall effect of that rating. It also explains why I'm nervous about anointing a four star quarterback, even a good one, as a program savior or more modestly as an offensive savior.

So what do these numbers mean for Michigan and Tate? It means we should all cool our jets a tad. Given the number of four and five star flameouts over the last five years, a four star QB is statistically more likely to be a bust than a success. Further, regardless of pedigree, even the best of the best get hammered in year one. Everyone remembers the lumps Chad Henne took as a first year starter, the bad throws, the bailouts by Braylon. And Chad was one of the highest ranked QB recruits in the country at the time. Sam Bradford's been a starter since day one but he got beaten down fairly regularly too. What helped Braford, and what is a major question mark for Forcier, is Bradford's OU defense was AWESOME that year and Bradford often had the opportunity to fix things when he messed up.

Tate's in that middle ground between OMG SHIRTLESS and good, solid prospect. On the negative side, he's shorter than we'd like. He's got good, but not great arm strength. He's shown a propensity, at least at the High School level to throw some picks. On the positive, he has shown great escapability. Great instincts. Good decision making. Has a resume jam packed with awards and MVPS. And an arm that is more than capable of delivering the ball down field and into tight pockets mid field. But all this is conjecture before he plays a single game. So before we all start bringing offerings to his temple, let's allow the kid to show us what he can do in a real game environment.

But here's where the realistic fan in me comes out; it's really hard not to get excited about what he's shown so far. On the basis of his high school career, spring performance, and Rodriguez offense, 2,300 passing yards, 700 rushing yards, 15/9 TD/INT, 6 Rushing TD seems like a reasonable expectation. Juice Williams threw for 3,000 plus last year while running for 700 yards on a bad team. Having seen both players throw, I like Forcier considerably more than Williams as a passer. The rushing numbers will be comparable just because of the nature of the offense. Forcier's going to run the ball. It's a necessity in this offense. So he'll have every opportunity to gain rushing yards.

I may be underselling the passing a tad, but I don't know how well our receivers are going to play this year. They should be a solid group, but there were a lot of dropped and misplayed balls last year. If the receivers play better, I think Tate can get them the ball and my projection would go up from there.

Thoughts?

Here's the list of ranked quaterbacks from 2005 forward. Help me fill in the blanks on these guys if you can.

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2009

1Russell Shepard 5* LSU

2Tyrik Rollison 4* Auburn

3Eugene Smith 4* West Virginia

4Kevin Newsome 4* Penn State

5Tate Forcier 4* Michigan

6Cody Green 4* Nebraska

7Nathan Scheelhaase 4* Illinois

8Shavodrick Beaver 4* Tulsa

9Casey Pachall 4* TCU