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Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 16:00:09 -0000

I'm suddenly running behind this week, so...less talk, more numbers...

Missouri	Opp.		Baylor	Opp.
49.9%		% Close	56.2%
56.1%	43.9%	Field Position %	39.3%	60.7%
76.8%	67.6%	Leverage %	66.8%	71.1%

		Total
551	605	Plays	509	608
291.70	187.43	EqPts	197.47	205.98
57.2%	40.8%	Success Rate	40.9%	45.1%
0.53	0.31	PPP	0.39	0.34
1.101	0.718	S&P	0.797	0.789

		Close Games
316	261	Plays	280	348
166.56	84.37	EqPts	121.41	130.77
57.6%	41.4%	Success Rate	40.7%	47.4%
0.53	0.32	PPP	0.43	0.38
1.103	0.737	S&P	0.841	0.850

		Rushing
103.11	187.43	EqPts	108.00	95.71
50.9%	40.8%	Success Rate	42.2%	45.7%
0.45	0.31	PPP	0.37	0.30
0.961	0.718	S&P	0.789	0.754
3.18	2.18	Line Yds/carry	2.83	2.95

		Passing
188.58	126.15	EqPts	89.47	110.27
61.6%	43.8%	Success Rate	39.1%	44.4%
0.58	0.38	PPP	0.42	0.39
1.200	0.821	S&P	0.807	0.830
2.2%	6.1%	Sack Rate	9.7%	5.2%

		Non-Passing Downs
61.9%	46.0%	Success Rate	46.5%	49.8%
0.55	0.32	PPP	0.38	0.33
1.168	0.780	S&P	0.846	0.827
1.3%	4.7%	Sack Rate	7.1%	3.1%
47.0%	53.3%	Run Rate	70.9%	63.0%

		Passing Downs
41.4%	30.1%	Success Rate	29.6%	33.5%
0.47	0.29	PPP	0.40	0.36
0.880	0.588	S&P	0.697	0.696
4.0%	8.0%	Sack Rate	10.3%	7.9%
22.7%	29.6%	Run Rate	44.8%	33.3%

		Turnovers
10	13	Total	7	15
26.18	31.36	Points Lost	19.55	40.60
25.07	52.28	Points Given	16.16	29.65
51.25	83.64	Total T/O Pts	35.71	70.25
+32.39	-32.39	T/O Pts Margin/Gm	+34.54	-34.54

Thoughts after the jump...

Baylor's defensive numbers are decent, but they are getting dominated in the field position battle, and if you give your opponents a 60-yard field while working on an 80-yard field, eventually you're going to tumble. They do a pretty good job of forcing Passing Downs, though.
As a reminder about my piece from the other day, Missouri currently has the best rushing defense in the Big 12 and second-best defense on Non-Passing Downs. Only Colorado is worse than Baylor in terms of Passing Downs success, so this could be big. Robert Griffin's (I felt I owed it to him to say his name right at least once) legs are obviously a concern (especially considering Baylor runs the ball almost 50% of the time in Passing Downs...meaning lots of QB draws), but he can only pull so many rabbits out of his hat. Force Baylor into enough Passing Downs, and this one's over.
Credit to Griffin for (as strange as this may sound) committing to being a QB. You see those high sack rates? With Griffin's elusiveness, that suggests that he really does stick around in the pocket trying to complete a pass. It might not be smart necessarily, but it's admirable.
You've also got to love Griffin's 9-to-0 TD-INT ratio. Anytime your ratio is infinity, you're doing pretty well. I expect the ratio to become a real number this week, though. Just a hunch.
It's amazing how playing Colorado makes your pass defense numbers look a whole helluva lot better. Missouri almost has it's Pass Defense S&P below 0.800!

Alright, let's see what the situational numbers tell us...

Missouri	Opp.		Baylor	Opp.
		Q1
55.6%	50.8%	Success Rate	45.1%	47.3%
0.56	0.34	PPP	0.39	0.36
1.116	0.849	S&P	0.839	0.838

		Q2
56.4%	41.0%	Success Rate	38.1%	50.0%
0.51	0.30	PPP	0.49	0.35
1.078	0.714	S&P	0.872	0.851

		Q3
62.7%	39.1%	Success Rate	36.8%	38.6%
0.62	0.36	PPP	0.31	0.30
1.250	0.748	S&P	0.677	0.682

		Q4
52.9%	40.0%	Success Rate	41.7%	41.8%
0.38	0.34	PPP	0.30	0.31
0.914	0.736	S&P	0.712	0.724

		1st Downs
59.8%	44.8%	Success Rate	38.6%	44.4%
0.56	0.36	PPP	0.26	0.29
1.159	0.805	S&P	0.648	0.732

		2nd Downs
58.4%	37.6%	Success Rate	46.5%	42.5%
0.47	0.31	PPP	0.53	0.34
1.057	0.685	S&P	0.991	0.760

		3rd Downs
49.3%	44.7%	Success Rate	37.4%	44.9%
0.53	0.32	PPP	0.41	0.41
1.021	0.765	S&P	0.788	0.860

It's impressive how close the performance of Baylor and their opponents is on a per-quarter basis. Doesn't really say anything, but it's interesting. Also interesting: Baylor has its most success at the beginning of the game, but their offensive act wears thin as the game progresses. This could actually help Baylor a bit, as Missouri is at its most vulnerable in Q1. I could definitely see a situation where the game is tied for a while in Q1 and maybe Q2, and Missouri slowly pulls away.
Meanwhile Baylor THRIVES on 2nd downs. As does the Missouri defense. I still have yet to figure out the significance of 2nd downs--why some teams are amazing at them and bad at 1st/3rd downs, and vice versa--but it's certainly the linchpin down for the Bears.
Baylor's defense tends to get incrementally worse on each down, as does, actually, Missouri's offense.

Key Players: Baylor

QB Hot Tub Griffin III

Let's not beat around the bush here. If Baylor is to beat Missouri, it's going to be by Robert Griffin pulling a "2002 Brad Smith against Oklahoma."

RB Jay Finley

Baylor's second-best offensive weapon, Finley is averaging 6.0 yards and a serviceable 0.806 S&P per carry. He's not to be mistaken for Demarco Murray or something here (as his meager 0.39 PPP would suggest), but he's not bad. And obviously if five guys are keying on Griffin, that opens up holes for Finley. The other options for "Most important offensive player other than Griffin" are either WR Kendall Wright or WR Justin Akers, the Bears' two best WR weapons from a PPP (i.e. explosiveness) perspective.

LB Joe Pawelek

Baylor's leader in INTs, fumble recoveries and QB Hurries (plus their almost leader in Tackles for Loss), Pawelek is a solid player and clearly the closest-thing Baylor has to a game-changer on defense. He's got a ridiculous number of tackles, but that doesn't mean much against an offense that spreads you from sideline to sideline. He's on this list because he makes the big plays. Plus, you have to figure he'll end up matched up with Chase Coffman at least a little bit. Good luck with that.

KR Mikail Baker

BU's starting D-line has only managed 4.5 sacks this year, and while DE Leon Freeman might actually be pretty decent, we're going in a different direction with the last Key Player pick. Buffalo hung with Mizzou for a while, in part because Ernest Jackson took a kick deep early in the game. It gave both the Buffalo offense and defense a chance to get their bearings and stay in the game. Baker has a kick return TD this year, and while he has otherwise been only average, if he can return another one, it could keep Baylor close.

Key Players: Mizzou

TE Chase Coffman

I'm mainly putting him on here because I haven't put him on here yet, and his play over the last few games has been unreal, even for him. Jeremy Maclin is doing his best to assure himself of a double-team over the rest of the season (if teams aren't doing that already), which just increases the odds that Coffman will be lined up in the slot, one-on-one with a soon-to-be hapless linebacker. Which means very, very good things for Missouri.

Also, I just can't help but be amazed that he hurdles somebody EVERY SINGLE WEEK. That CU defender he hurdled last week didn't even crouch down very far, and he still hurdled him. The Flying Nunchuk will live on forever. Knowshon who?

OL Colin Brown

Really, I was going to list the entire O-line, but Brown has had a ridiculous number of false start penalties in the last couple of games, and because of that he was the only member of the Mizzou O-line that didn't completely dominate last week. The only times Mizzou has stumbled this year, it was mostly because the line didn't block well at all. Baylor doesn't have much to offer in terms of Defensive Line prowess, but decent players like Trey Bryant and Leon Freeman could still have a decent day if Mizzou's O-line isn't clicking. No pressure on Daniel = no chance for Baylor.

LB Brock Christopher, LB Sean Weatherspoon, FS William Moore, or whoever ends up shadowing Hot Tub Griffin III the most

Shadowing Griffin has to be Job #1 for the Mizzou defense. He's going to get yards on scrambles, but if you hold him to 5-15 yards instead of 25-infinity yards, and you make the poor-success-rate offense go the length of the field, they'll likely stumble along the way. I could see Mizzou somewhat busting out the Illinois gameplan--have Moore chase Griffin all game and see if he can throw the deep ball like Juice Williams can (he can't...well, maybe he can, but he doesn't have the WRs).

P Jake Harry

I'm reaching here, but there is no other player who is more closely tied to Mizzou's success than Harry. Harry doesn't see the field, Mizzou doesn't lose. It's all so simple when you break it down scientifically!

Summary

I really am disappointed that this one's not on television. I'm not sure how far Hot Tub Griffin III can take Baylor over his remaining 3.5 years, but there's no doubting the fact that he's entertaining as all hell. I'd love to get the chance to see how well he actually plays the position of quarterback, but I guess I'll have to wait until Monday or Tuesday to see that. And either way, Baylor just does not have the horses on either side of the ball yet. Brad Smith at least had Justin Gage and James Kinney his first year.

Tuesday's projections said 32-22 Missouri. My Roundtable prediction was 48-17 Missouri. How about we just average that? New pick: 40-20 Missouri.

Actually, no. Scratch that. The more I think about this, the more I'm allowing Baylor 14 points via outstanding play from Hot Tub Griffin III, and no more. Beyond that, in games against teams not named Oklahoma State or Texas, Mizzou is averaging 54.2 points per game. Baylor's defense is much closer to that of Illinois, Nevada, SEMO, Buffalo, Nebraska and Colorado than that of OSU and Texas. So I'm taking 7 points away from Baylor and adding it to Mizzou's ledger. 47-13 Missouri. That's science at its best right there.

Poll

So...what IS Baylor's ceiling with Hot Tub Griffin III at QB?

5-7

10 votes

6-6 (Texas Bowl!)

18 votes

7-5 (Insight Bowl!)

20 votes

8-4 (SHREVEPORT!!!)

19 votes

9-3 (Alamo Bowl!!)

5 votes

10-2 (Cotton Bowl??)

2 votes

Big 12 South Champion

4 votes

78 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 16:00:06 -0000

We had a bye week, and there's no game for me to review...so let's go ahead and talk about Nebraska, shall we?

So the NCAA.org site from which I get my play-by-plays is screwing me this week, as half their games from last week aren't in the database correctly yet. That's preventing me from having the up-to-date '+' numbers I was hoping to have for conference play. Oh well, I guess. Instead, what you get is one monster BTBS season box score for both Mizzou and Nebraska. And after the jump, I'll play with projections the way I have been for the other '08 games so far.

If you have any questions about these numbers, please ask them. At some point I'll get to the new BTBS Glossary I've promised...but it hasn't happened yet. And if your eyes glaze over looking at numbers, check out the bullets after the box.

Nebraska	Opponents		Missouri	Opponents
59.4%		% Close	51.9%
45.7%	54.3%	Field Position %	58.5%	41.5%
71.2%	67.4%	Leverage %	76.2%	66.6%

		Total
243	282	Plays	290	317
114.58	81.79	EqPts	163.85	87.14
46.5%	38.7%	Success Rate	58.3%	38.8%
0.47	0.29	PPP	0.57	0.27
0.937	0.677	S&P	1.148	0.663

		Close Games
141	171	Plays	182	133
67.07	49.82	EqPts	108.33	35.11
44.7%	40.9%	Success Rate	59.9%	37.6%
0.48	0.29	PPP	0.60	0.26
0.922	0.701	S&P	1.194	0.640

		Rushing
46.94	36.55	EqPts	60.64	21.96
42.4%	36.3%	Success Rate	51.9%	37.4%
0.38	0.27	PPP	0.47	0.17
0.800	0.634	S&P	0.989	0.542
2.82	2.52	Line Yds/carry	3.31	2.23

		Passing
67.64	45.24	EqPts	103.21	65.18
50.8%	40.8%	Success Rate	63.4%	39.8%
0.57	0.31	PPP	0.64	0.35
1.082	0.716	S&P	1.275	0.748

		Non-Passing Downs
54.3%	45.3%	Success Rate	62.9%	44.5%
0.53	0.31	PPP	0.60	0.31
1.071	0.766	S&P	1.228	0.754

		Passing Downs
27.1%	25.0%	Success Rate	43.5%	27.4%
0.33	0.24	PPP	0.46	0.21
0.605	0.491	S&P	0.890	0.481

		Turnovers
7	6	Total	5	7
11.66	18.12	Points Lost	14.68	18.27
23.69	18.12	Points Given	12.31	33.76
35.35	36.24	Total T/O Pts	26.99	52.03
+0.89	-0.89	T/O Pts Margin	+25.04	-25.04

		Q1
46.8%	42.9%	Success Rate	60.8%	41.5%
0.49	0.30	PPP	0.65	0.25
0.957	0.727	S&P	1.254	0.667

		Q2
42.6%	40.8%	Success Rate	62.0%	38.6%
0.45	0.27	PPP	0.65	0.26
0.880	0.680	S&P	1.272	0.650

		Q3
49.1%	46.5%	Success Rate	61.5%	37.8%
0.49	0.31	PPP	0.60	0.33
0.982	0.779	S&P	1.212	0.704

		Q4
47.7%	25.0%	Success Rate	46.8%	37.8%
0.46	0.28	PPP	0.32	0.26
0.932	0.528	S&P	0.789	0.638

		1st Downs
55.3%	41.5%	Success Rate	61.1%	43.3%
0.59	0.31	PPP	1.01	0.34
1.138	0.723	S&P	1.623	0.773

		2nd Downs
38.9%	34.8%	Success Rate	60.2%	34.0%
0.41	0.21	PPP	0.53	0.22
0.800	0.561	S&P	1.131	0.561

		3rd Downs
35.6%	38.5%	Success Rate	48.8%	34.3%
0.29	0.32	PPP	0.45	0.21
0.642	0.708	S&P	0.936	0.553

Thoughts...

Nebraska has actually lost the field position battle (Field Position % = plays you've run in your opponent's territory vs plays they've run in your territory) so far this year. They've come up with some big plays so far, but that's a little bit alarming. Some teams are really good at the bend-don't-break thing, but it's a dangerous game.
Less than 1/4 of Missouri's plays are Passing Downs. Oh yeah, and they're just about the best in the country at converting Passing Downs.
Nebraska's 46% success rate is pretty solid; Mizzou's 58% success rate (60% in close games) is ridiculous.
Mizzou's only giving up 2.23 Line Yards per carry. I thought it would be higher than that, even against relatively weak competition. That's a stout run defense right there.
Nebraska's passing game is downright solid, especially considering Joe Ganz only has one 'shows up every game' weapon at his disposal, Nate "Remember Me?" Swift.
Oh yeah, and Mizzou's 1.275 Passing S&P is unbelievable.
If you can force Nebraska into passing downs, they're not able to complete them as well as they did last year, back when Marlon Lucky was alive.
Mizzou is the poster child for why Turnover Points Margin is so much more telling than Turnover Margin. What happens when you put up 3 INT's for TD in 4 games? You average a more than 6-point turnover advantage per game.
Nebraska is a Q1/Q3 team. They gameplan well offensively, and they backslide a smidge once the gameplan runs out and they actually have to adjust.
Meanwhile, their defense is pretty stout in Q4. Don't know if that's because of the competition or not, but let's just go ahead and make sure this game is out of reach in Q3, shall we?
Mizzou's offense is disgustingly consistent from Q1 to Q3. We hear a lot about Mizzou's "fast starts", but a fast start suggests a fall-off. They start fast and stay fast. Their Q4 numbers are down, but put little stock in that--they've only played their starters in Q4 in 2 of 4 games. They weren't wonderful offensively against Illinois in Q4, but that's a quite small sample size, no?
Mizzou's offense is RIDICULOUS on first downs. A 1.623 S&P? Seriously?
The game could be made or broken on third downs. Nebraska is -0.062 S&P on third downs (0.642 on offense, 0.708 on defense), while Mizzou is +0.383. You have to figure that home field advantage is most apparent on third downs, so Mizzou's advantage will shrink because of that...but that's still pretty significant right there.

Alright, projections after the jump...

Mizzou-Nebraska Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 136.70
2007 Nebraska Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 21.02
Projection #1: 28.74
2007 Nebraska Rushing Defense EqPts+: 78.53
2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
Projection #2: 20.64

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 24.69

Adjusted for 2008: 24.0. Mizzou's rushing offense is better in '08, and so is NU's rushing defense. I'm bumping this down a hair, but I still think we're seeing a window of major opportunity here. Derrick Washington could have a monster day.

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 156.79
2007 Nebraska Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 13.31
Projection #1: 20.87
2007 Nebraska Passing Defense EqPts+: 102.29
2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
Projection #2: 17.99

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 19.43

Adjusted for 2008: 20.0. Again, NU's pass defense is better than last year's...but Mizzou's pass offense has gone to a new level. If NU can't get pressure on Chase Daniel from its D-line, they're dead meat.

Nebraska Rushing

2007 Nebraska Rushing Offense EqPts+: 99.81
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
Projection #1: 8.27
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 121.92
2007 Nebraska Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 10.03
Projection #2: 8.23

Projected Nebraska Rushing Output: 8.25

Adjusted for 2008: 7.0. NU's got little to no running game this year. And Mizzou's just as good at stopping it.

Nebraska Passing

2007 Nebraska Passing Offense EqPts+: 169.46
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
Projection #1: 20.57
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 103.91
2007 Nebraska Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 19.89
Projection #2: 19.14

Projected Nebraska Passing Output: 19.86

Adjusted for 2008: 18.0. Here's the deal: NU averaged such high passing numbers in '07 because they were playing from behind so much. Ironically, the fact that they're better at passing in '08 means they probably won't be averaging as many Passing EqPts--games will be closer, and they won't be letting 'er rip quite as much.

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 44.0, Nebraska 25.0

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 41, Nebraska 28.

Special Teams

Lincoln was the place where Missouri fans discovered what kind of kicker they were going to have for the next couple years. The one bright spot of the '06 debacle in Lincoln was Jeff Wolfert crushing a 54-yard FG at the end of the first half...to cut NU's lead to 27-6. Since then, Wolfert's missed almost nothing. He leads what is, despite the kick return TD given up against Buffalo a week and a half ago, the best special teams unit Mizzou's had in recent history, possibly ever. They've got their most accurate kicker ever, their best kick/punt returner ever, and a pretty solid punter.

Meanwhile, NU's unit is far from chopped liver. After Niles Paul got a bit of fumbleitis against Virginia Tech, Nate Swift stepped in and took a punt back 80+ yards for a TD. Meanwhile, primary kick return man Niles Paul also has a TD (a big one too--it broke open the way-too-tight San Jose State game) in this young season. Alex Henery is a solid kicker as well. The one problem: so far they're averaging 27.5 net yards per punt. That's horrendous. Granted, that includes last week's blocked punt, but Dan Titchener's 38.0 average (and propensity to give up some returns) doesn't cut it. Mizzou has a special teams advantage here, but it's not a gigantic one.

Key Players: Nebraska

WR Todd Peterson, WR Menelik Holt, TE Mike McNeil...every receiver besides Nate Swift

Back in 2005, freshman Nate Swift was Zac Taylor's go-to WR in a mediocre pass attack. 2006 and 2007 were dominated by JUCO transfer Maurice Purify, but now Swift is back to being the #1 guy. Problem is, Mizzou's still pretty darn good at stopping #1 receiving threats (thank you, Carl Gettis). So someone on the Husker offense needs to step up and play the role Ernest Jackson (Buffalo's #2 WR, who scored 3 TDs) played for Buffalo or Will Judson (177 yards, 2 TDs) played for Illinois. Problem is, the only NU WR who's caught a pass of more than 25 yards is Swift. NU's still good at the screen game--RBs Quentin Castille, Roy Helu Jr. and Marlon Lucky (remember him?) all have had at least one long reception--but call me crazy...NU's not going to beat Mizzou by screening them to death. Somebody's going to have to come up with a huge play or two, and it might be Jeremy Maclin's former Kirkwood teammate, TE Mike McNeill.

Or, you know, it might be nobody at all.

RB Marlon Lucky

I wanted to name anybody else but Lucky, but there are a lot of known quantities here. Joe Ganz is going to be pretty solid. Nate Swift is going to make a few catches. The NU O-line is going to be decent but not spectacular. Really, the key ingredient to NU being able to keep up with Mizzou on the scoreboard simply has to be Marlon Lucky. The preseason All-Big 12 RB is barely on pace for 800 rushing yards this year, and despite a 58-yard run earlier in the season, he's only averaging 4.4 yards per carry. While his backup, Roy Helu Jr., has rushed for almost as many yards on 15 fewer carries, Lucky's the workhorse, and he just has to have a big game.

DE Zach Potter

We've covered the "How to beat Mizzou" blueprint on RMN many times. The key ingredient isn't a great secondary or explosive offense--it's having great DEs. You have to be able to generate pressure on Chase Daniel without blitzing, and Potter is NU's only hope of success in that regard. He's having a solid season so far--5.0 TFL's, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 2 pass breakups, 2 QB hurries; he might need all of that on Saturday. He's a big dude (6'7, 285), and he's obviously pretty athletic...now he just needs to have a career game at exactly the right time. Unfortunately for him, Mizzou's starting OT's, Colin Brown and Elvis Fisher, have been dominant thus far.

DT Ndamukong Suh

Usually, if I've already picked a DL here, I'd aim for an LB or DB with the second defensive slot. It is, after all, important that NU's DBs cover better than they have in their lives even if the D-line IS generating some pressure. But a) the LBs and DBs just don't really matter if the NU DL doesn't first dominate, and b) Suh's probably NU's most talented defensive player (other than Potter, anyway). The best-case scenario is that the 6'4, 300-pound nose tackle teams with Potter to blow up one side of Mizzou's O-line and harrass all night. I'll believe it when I see it--Suh completely and totally disappeared against good teams last year--but it's something to watch.

Key Players: Mizzou

RB Derrick Washington

It's quite possible that Nebraska, knowing it doesn't have the most wonderful secondary in the world, plays the mushroom cloud style of defense that teams like Arkansas and Kansas attempted against Mizzou last year, rushing 2-3 guys and dropping 8-9 into coverage. If Nebraska attempts this, it will open up humongous holes for Derrick Washington, who has already proven himself to be a better overall weapon than Tony Temple. Temple was a wonderful slasher, waiting for a hole and darting through it. Washington can do that, but he doesn't really need to wait for a hole. He can lower his head into the back of a pile and squirt through the other side for 6 yards; he can also break away for a TD at any time. Washington is the reason it seems impossible to stop Missouri right now, and if he has a big game in Lincoln, I don't see how Missouri loses unless they're fumbling the ball left and right.

OT's Colin Brown and Elvis Fisher

This one's easy--if Zach Potter and Ndamukong Suh are the keys for Nebraska, the guys blocking them (sort of) are keys for Mizzou. Granted, Suh's an NT, so he'll be on the interior of the line, but if he (and DT Ty Steinkuhler) can rough up the middle of the Mizzou O-line, it's up to Brown and Fisher to keep Chase Daniel from being blindsided. I'm not worried about pressure from up the middle--Daniel can see that coming--it's what he can't see that I worry about.

DE Stryker Sulak

After a wonderful start to the season (3 sacks against Illinois), Sulak has more or less disappeared. He's been the second-best DE on Mizzou's team (anybody notice how well Tommy Chavis has been playing?) for the last three games. It's time for Sulak to make some more noise. Ziggy Hood's coming along, and if Sulak lives up to the expectations he built for himself, this defense is suddenly pretty scary.

FS William Moore

Remember him? I'm talking about William Moore the safety, not William Moore the third defensive end. Assuming we scale back the Moore experimentation a bit and he, you know, actually plays free safety (and is healthy enough to play it well), he is Mizzou's most dangerous player. Mizzou held a decent Buffalo offense in check without Moore, but Nebraska's obviously better than Buffalo, and Mizzou will need Moore to start making plays.

Then again, Sean Weatherspoon might just make all the plays, in which case it really doesn't matter what Moore does.

Summary

I want nothing more than to believe we're going to break a 30-year losing streak in Lincoln by absolutely destroying NU. It's within the realm of possibility. NU can't get to Chase Daniel early, Mizzou races to a quick early lead, Mizzou tees off on Joe Ganz, ..., blowout ensues.

But it's probably not going to happen. I've been saying for two weeks now that we are likely to get everything Nebraska has. Trick plays, inspired blitzes, some completely unknown receiver (Curenski Gilleylen, maybe?) coming out of the woodwork and finding a couple blindspots in Mizzou's Cover-2. They'll probably even get a couple Sea-of-Red-style lucky bounces like the ones that quickly turned the '06 game into a blowout (Really? Will Franklin actually bats the ball to Adam Carriker?).

It's going to be a game. But it comes down to what I've been repeating ad nauseum for the last two weeks: even with inspired play and some homefield bounces, can Nebraska stop Missouri more than Missouri can stop Nebraska? The only reason I can come up with to convince myself that would happen is that...well, this game is in Lincoln. Lincoln has been very bad to Mizzou over the years. But you know what? Manhattan and Boulder had also been bad to Mizzou for the last decade-plus. And Mizzou ended those jinxes quite violently in 2007. It's time to end this jinx too. Bring it on, Huskers.

Prediction: Mizzou 45, Nebraska 24.

Poll

What scares you most about Mizzou's trip to Lincoln this Saturday?

Look at all those upsets last weekend!

25 votes

Joe Ganz to Nate Swift!

7 votes

It's in freaking Lincoln. Can you think of one good thing that's happened in Lincoln in my lifetime?

145 votes

Chase Daniel was awful there in 2006!

6 votes

One of these days, Marlon Lucky's going to turn into a great back...I just know it!

10 votes

193 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Ernest Jackson

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Missouri

Opp.

Baylor

Opp.

Missouri

Opp.

Baylor

Opp.

So...what IS Baylor's ceiling with Hot Tub Griffin III at QB?

5-7

6-6 (Texas Bowl!)

7-5 (Insight Bowl!)

8-4 (SHREVEPORT!!!)

9-3 (Alamo Bowl!!)

10-2 (Cotton Bowl??)

Big 12 South Champion

Mizzou-Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Nebraska

Opponents

Missouri

Opponents

What scares you most about Mizzou's trip to Lincoln this Saturday?

Look at all those upsets last weekend!

Joe Ganz to Nate Swift!

It's in freaking Lincoln. Can you think of one good thing that's happened in Lincoln in my lifetime?

Chase Daniel was awful there in 2006!

One of these days, Marlon Lucky's going to turn into a great back...I just know it!