SB Nation - Lenny Jones

Roll On: Previewing The Nevada Defense

norcalnick — Fri, 31 Aug 2012 10:00:21 -0000

Emotionally, I just want to write a hackneyed, return-to-memorial preview. Strawberry Canyon. Sunsets over the Bay. ~~Bathrooms that violate the Geneva Conventions.~~ The North Tunnel. Script Cal. Roll 'em up. Footbaw.

It's what you're thinking right now, isn't it? But we've got a specific game against a team that is hardly a guaranteed win for obvious, obvious reasons. So let's try to do this preview right.

When you think back to what went wrong against Nevada in 2010, the focus obviously falls on everything that Colin Kaepernick did to Cal’s defense. But an underrated aspect of Cal’s defeat was the inability of the offense to transform yards into points. You may have forgotten, but the Bears actually outgained the Nevada offense, 502 to 497.

But that was two years ago. Can this Cal offense do the job against this Nevada defense? The Wolf Pack are led by a new defensive coordinator after Andy Buh left to accept a position at Wisconsin. That led to the promotion of safeties coach Mike Bradeson. Old Blues might recognize the name – he was Cal’s secondary coach from 1992-95 during the Gilby era. I’m a bit too young to evaluate his success as a coach in Berkeley, but Bradeson has a history of putting together solid pass defenses at both UNLV and Nevada, at that appears to be the strength of their defense this year.

Unfortunately for Nevada, the rest of the defense is filled with question marks - question marks that the Bears should be able to exploit to gain some measure of revenge for what happened two years ago. Let's dive right in with the most valuable preview of all: one based on exactly zero results from games this season!

Personnel

Defensive Line: So. DE Brock Hekking, So. DT Jordan Hanson, Jr. DT Jack Reynoso, RS Fr. DE Lenny Jones

In 2011, the four projected starters on Nevada's defensive line combined for 8 starts, 31 tackles and 2 sacks. Almost all of that production comes from Reynoso, who is coming off of a broken leg that prematurely ended his sophomore season. It's tough to say much about Hekking, Hanson and Jones because they've seen so little action. All are two star recruits and I can only imagine that this game may be something of a trial by fire for all of them. Expect Reynoso to see plenty of double teams.

Linebackers: Sr. SAM Jeremiah Green, Sr. MIKE Albert Rosette, Sr. WOLF DeAndre Boughton

Conversely, the linebacker unit can’t get any more veteran, can it? Still, this unit does have to replace two NFL draftees in James-Michael Johnson (4th round) and Brandon Marshall (6th round) so there hasn’t been 100% continuity by any means.

Green is the returning starter, and based on his stats (10 passes defended, 3 interceptions, no sacks) he was used in coverage frequently. Rosette was originally a linebacker, was converted to defensive end, then converted back to linebacker this year. Boughton is a JC transfer that redshirted with an injury in 2011. So although the starters combine for plenty of years in the program, they haven't gotten a ton of game-time together.

By the way, I’m assuming that the WOLF position is a fancy Nevada name for the WILL position, in case you were wondering.

Secondary: So. CB Charles Garrett, Sr. SS Duke Williams, Sr. FS Marlon Johnson, Sr. CB Khalid Wooten

And plenty more experience in the secondary to boot. All in all Nevada’s defense sports six senior starters. This unit lost all WAC 1st team cornerback Isaiah Frey to the NFL, and replacing his talents (and 5 interceptions) will be critical. Wooten is a solid 3 year contributor coming off a 4 interception season. Marlon Johnson is a two year starter, and although he doesn’t pile up a ton of stats, the success of Nevada’s pass defense generally indicates that he’s plenty good at preventing big plays over the middle of the field.

But the star of the unit (and perhaps of the entire defense) is Duke Williams. He played as a true freshman and has started every game over his last two seasons, picking up plenty of all-conference honors along the way. Expect to hear his name plenty on Saturday

Against the Run

4.51 yards allowed/attempt, 78th in the nation

That number looks mediocre, but it looks significantly worse when you consider that Nevada only returns 1 starter on the line. Nevada really got gashed early in the season against Oregon and Boise St. before putting up stronger performances against Boise St., Southern Miss, and the dregs of the WAC. But whatever progress the Wolf Pack made over the course of last year probably has to be thrown out since nearly the entire front 7 has been rebuilt.

Against the Pass

6.5 yards allowed/attempt, 24th in the nation

I’ll admit it, I was pretty surprised to see this number. That’s legitimately impressive. The important question: How much of Nevada’s success against the pass was due to the departed Isaiah Frey? I fully expect veteran CB Wooten to cover Keenan Allen whenever possible, likely with Johnson helping over the top. Until Cal proves they have a viable 2nd target through the air Keenan’s going to get insane amounts of attention.

Even without Frey, I wouldn't expect Maynard to gash the secondary. And experienced safety pairing should prevent anything over the top, and having an excellent linebacker to cover over the middle in Green might negate what Cal wants to do with tight ends this year.

Stats of Dubious Value

Turnovers

25 forced turnovers (10 fumble recoveries, 15 interceptions), 39th in the nation

Losing Frey's interceptions to the NFL hurts, but this is a defense that will likely punish a QB for poor decisions and inaccurate throws. If Maynard struggles we shouldn't freak out, and if he excels we shouldn't dismiss it.

3rd Down

Opponent conversion percentage of 36.17, 34th in the nation

A stat that reflects Nevada's efficiency against the pass. I'd like to think that Maynard will have time to throw on 3rd and long, but will anybody be open? In the category of 'duh:' Avoiding obvious passing situations on 3rd down would be extremely advantageous.

Red Zone

Scoring allowed in 73.17% of opponent red zone possessions, 13th in the nation
Touchdown allowed in 60.98% of opponent red zone possessions, 74th in the nation

What these numbers tell me is that Nevada saw lots of kickers miss field goals that ranged in difficulty from average to chippies.

Conclusions

At first blush, Nevada’s 2011 defense seemed to fall somewhere between average and above-average. The missing piece of context is strength of schedule. The Sagarin ratings gave Nevada’s schedule a rank of 88th , despite playing both Oregon and Boise St. The Wolf Pack defense generally struggled against the best competition their schedule offered.

In my mind this is a game for Sofele, Anderson, and the offensive line. Nevada’s strength is definitely in their secondary, and despite Maynard and Allen’s psychic connection, Cal’s offensive strength is still likely the running game. Any time our strength matches up with their weakness I'm all smiles.

Potentially exciting development: The intrigue will likely come from seeing how Maynard and a new receiving core does against a secondary that shouldn't be discounted. If Maynard stays calm in the pocket and spends the game picking out Bryce Treggs, Richard Rogers and Maurice Harris then that's a great sign that the talent might be in place for a productive offense.

Potentially terrifying development: If the offensive line struggles against Nevada's completely new and completely inexperience front seven, you have my permission to worry about how they'll do against the conference schedule.

Prediction: Isi and C.J. do most of the heavy lifting, Maynard has an efficient if unspectacular day, and the offense does enough for a relatively comfortable win.

Poll

How many points will Cal score against Nevada?

20 or less

11 votes

21-30

46 votes

31-40

124 votes

41+

74 votes

255 votes | Poll has closed

Squirt Gun Or Pistol? A Q+A With Silver And Blue Sports Regarding Nevada Football In 2012

TwistNHook — Wed, 06 Jun 2012 17:30:06 -0000

We are talking today with Andrew Maurins of Silver And Blue Sports. Those guys cover the Nevada Wolfpack, Cal's 2012 opening game opponent. Hopefully, Memorial Stadium will be done in time for the game this year.

Of course, we all remember the last Cal-Nevada game. That game, held in the high school stadium that Nevada apparently plays its games at, ended......poorly. Noted Ostrich Colin Kaepernick, who I now have to root for, destroyed us. Nevada uses the Pistol formation on offense, which can be very confusing. Do you tackle the guy with the ball or throw yourself at the empty handed player? It always seemed that whatever decision Cal made was the wrong one.

But that was in the past. 2010 is SOOOOOOOOOO 2011. 2012 is (Spoiler Alert) the year we are currently in. So, let's find out more about the 2012 Nevada team. Mr. Maurins' answers to our questions after the jump. GO BEARS!

1. What were the core questions that you had hoped would be answered by Spring Practice? Were conclusions reached?

The biggest questions faced by the team heading into spring were the defensive line and the receiving corps. The line lost four starters from a group that was just adequate to begin with, while the receivers lost a lot of productivity and experience of their own. Both units will get infusions of players this fall which will bring them more up to respectability, but in the interim, depth and experience were in short supply.

The best answer to emerge out of the spring was Brandon Wimberly's return to the receiving corps. After getting shot in the abdomen during the 2011 off-season, it was doubtful whether he'd even return to a normal day-to-day existence, much less the rigors of FBS college football. Now, not only is he back on the field, but he looked as though he hasn't missed a single step. His return will provide a big boost not just for his unit, but to the whole team. As for the line, they seemed to play well in their first two scrimmages, putting pressure on the quarterbacks and slowing down the run, but they got pushed around a lot in the Silver and Blue spring game. They're still a bit of a question mark at this time.

2. Any major style changes coming our way in the fall? New offense or defense installed?

Chris Ault's staff was hit with the most departures in one off-season he's ever experienced. Since the 2011 season ended, he's hired a new offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach (Nick Rolovich from Hawai'i), promoted his secondary coach to defensive coordinator (Mike Bradeson), brought in a new special teams and running backs coach (Larry Lewis from Colorado State) AND a new offensive line coach (Darren Hiller from Arkansas State).

With his experience in the run and shoot being brought in to a pistol offense, Rolovich is the most intriguing addition to the staff. The pistol will remain the base formation and Ault has indicated the offense will still run first, but the passing game will take on a new look and level of importance that hasn't been seen since the pistol was first created. The defense will play out of a 4-3 scheme that will take advantage of Bradeson's experience with secondaries and the depth the unit will have this year.

3. What players emerged on offense? On defense?

The offensive player who left the biggest impression on me personally was quarterback Cody Fajardo. While displaying the same passing touch and running elusiveness he showed as a redshirt freshman last year, he looked stronger, more confident and at more ease in the pocket. His passing game is already more refined than Colin Kaepernick's was after his freshman season, and his 19 of 22 performance at the spring game is testament to this growth. Tight end Zach Sudfeld was a very close second, showing the best pass-catching ability of anyone outside the receiving corps and looking like Fajardo's favorite target so far. Tony Knight is also a potential instant impact addition to the running backs, showing a great blend of speed and strength.

Three players who performed with similar distinction on defense were inside linebacker DeAndre Boughton, end Lenny Jones and tackle Rykeem Yates. All three players were all over the field at the practice I watched, and Boughton in particular is playing with the urgency you'd expect from a player being counted on to lead his group. While experience will still be a concern along the line, Jones and Yates have shown that maybe a little youth is just what the unit needs.

4. What are your biggest worries coming out of spring ball for the fall?

As good as Fajardo often was last year, it was clear he still had a lot to learn, and having a senior "safety net" in Tyler Lantrip to fall back on when he struggled was a big advantage for the team. He also battled his way through several injuries and didn't become the full-time starter until almost halfway through the season. My concern now is whether Fajardo can stay healthy for an entire year with Lantrip gone and no FBS experience behind him. Any chance the team has of remaining competitive and continuing its streak of bowl appearances starts with these assumptions.

The next-biggest concern I have is the offense's consistency. The extent to which the team benefited from Kaepernick's poise and leadership was made painfully clear during many of Fajardo's "growing pains" moments last year. Long scoring droughts, frequent turnovers and general ineffectiveness at crucial times (particularly in the red zone) directly led to three losses in their final four games (all of which were by seven or fewer points). It was the difference between finishing the season at 7-6 and finishing the season at 8-5, 9-4 or 10-3.

There's also been no true starter named at the running back position yet, but given the team's variety and depth of players at the spot and history of finding effective runners to fit into the pistol scheme, this is less of a concern.

5. Project your season. Contender? Pretender? Middle of the pack?

The combination of turnover in the coaching staff, big questions to answer on both sides of the ball and the move to the Mountain West makes this season one of the hardest to project that I can ever recall. But generally, I trust Ault's judgments when it comes to his staff appointments, and the schedule seems to be set up pretty favorably, with many of the tougher conference games (Boise State, San Diego State and Wyoming) at home, where Nevada traditionally plays very well. I also think the talent on the team is also starting to get to a level where Nevada can replace big losses more easily than they could before. There are a lot of variables at play, but my hunch says an 8-4 season is close to what we can expect, with equal potential for 6-6 or 10-2, depending on how things unfold.

6. Any frosh you can't wait to get on campus?

Definitely Randy Uzoma. He'd be a great receiver to sign in any recruiting class, but his abilities combined with the lack of depth the Pack will have at the position give him a great chance to play as soon as he gets here. Oregon made a big push to land him late in the recruiting process, but he stayed true to his verbal commitment. The last receiver Nevada signed who almost went to Oregon was Rishard Matthews, and he was just drafted by the Dolphins a few weeks ago.

7. Who will you miss the most from last season? Who will be stepping up to fulfill those shoes?

I'm going to miss tackle Brett Roy and what he brought to the defense -- not just his knack for disruption and getting into the backfield, but his swagger and confidence, which will be just as hard (if not harder) to replace. It doesn't hurt that the guy was also the most quote-worthy member of the team (even while praising Fajardo last year, for example, he didn't shy away from affectionately calling him a "pretty-boy"). Look for either Cortez Woods or Rykeem Yates to take over his position on the interior defensive line.

8. Any particular Pac12 match-up/rivalry you are looking forward to this Fall?

Aside from Nevada at Cal, you mean? I'd have to say USC's games against Stanford and Oregon are both intriguing. Just below that I would put Washington State against...pretty much anyone. Seriously, Mike Leach is friggin' nuts and his teams are always fun on a bun. That, and former Nevada assistant Jim Mastro is on his staff and our fans will always root for him to succeed.

9. What are the specific injury concerns coming out of this spring?

Aside from relatively minor things like concussions and the occasional stinger, I don't believe the team has sustained any major injuries heading into the summer and fall.

10. Based on what you've seen, who is ready to take a major leap this fall?

Zach Sudfeld and Cody Fajardo on offense (again, if he stays healthy), and DeAndre Boughton and fellow linebacker Albert Rosette on defense. Rosette, in particular, is moving back to his original position in the backfield after an pretty unremarkable year on the line.

11. Who do you want to punch in the face?

Interesting change of pace here. Assuming we're just talking about the college football world at large, I'd say it's a tie between Jim Delany and Bill Hancock.

The complete and utter contempt Delany shows for non-AQ programs in much of what he says is nothing short of extraordinary. So much so that I often imagine him speaking to the media while wearing a monocle and holding a snifter of brandy while using words like "riff raff" and "unwashed masses" to describe any program that dares to challenge the status quo. He is to college football what Judge Smails is to "Caddyshack" ("You'll get nothing and like it!").

Hancock deserves one for being the biggest BCS apologist the system has ever produced. In a way, you kind of feel bad for him having to tow the company line of such a flawed system -- it can't be an easy job pretending the BCS doesn't suck eggs, after all -- but that sympathy disappears the second he opens his mouth. He is college football's equivalent of a tobacco company lobbyist -- part used car salesman, part spin doctor and all sleazebag.

12. Who's got the best nickname on the team?

I'm partial to Batman personally, so I'm going to go with running back Kendall Brock's nickname out of high school: the Joker.

13. Which one of your assistant coaches is in the hot seat?

Given that pretty much everyone of note on the staff outside of the head coach is new, I doubt anyone is "on the hot seat" in the traditional sense. If there was a particular coach under more pressure to be successful than the others, however, I guess it would be Bradeson. Ault delegated his normal OC and quarterback coaching duties to Rolovich in part to keep a closer eye on the defense, meaning Bradeson might be under a little more scrutiny than his counterparts.

14. Nevada killed Cal with the Pistol last time out. How successful do you see the Pistol being this year?

As I alluded to before, the new competition of the Mountain West makes these projections even harder than they would normally be, and this becomes doubly true when bringing in a new offensive coordinator from a very different (but nonetheless effective) system. Odds are the team won't field another 1,000-yard rusher, but if that starter gets some help from Fajardo and one other running back -- and they have the depth at the position to do just that -- they may not have to rush for that much in order for the offense to be effective. We know the pass will take on new importance, but when the top three receivers on the team are a guy coming back from a near-fatal gunshot wound (Wimberly) and two tight ends (Sudfeld and Kolby Arendse), how fully will that goal be reached?

The team doesn't have the personnel to run a "pistol plus run and shoot" offense, but I'm not sure that's their goal, anyway. I think what's closer to what we'll see is a pistol formation still slightly weighted towards downhill running, but with passing wisdom and expertise imparted by a coordinator with a real talent for meshing his quarterbacks and receivers together. This marriage of styles has the potential to be a great offense, but that's still at least a year or two away from being realized. The only certainty is that this won't be the same pistol that Cal saw in 2010.

15. The pistol was pretty potent last year, but struggled against some of the tougher teams on the schedule. Is the experience and talent there to exploit the best defenses Nevada will face this year?

Talent? Absolutely. Experience? Not so much. As far as their proficiency on the field, a lot of their problems stemmed from the usual freshman mistakes and confidence issues you'd expect a young quarterback to have. It's almost as if playing four straight road games to open a season isn't a good idea (sorry, a little bit of residual bitterness from last year's schedule). In that facet, at least, I'm inclined to believe they'll be better. The fact that the schedule is a lot more manageable than last year's will greatly help as well. With those two things in mind, I'd say they will, in fact match up well (or at least reasonably well) with the better teams they'll face.

Poll

How do you see this game going?

Big Cal victory

182 votes

Close Cal victory

90 votes

Close Nevada victory

107 votes

Big Nevada victory

22 votes

401 votes | Poll has closed