SB Nation - Louis Delmas

Preview: Michigan State vs. Western Michigan

LVS — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 04:13:59 -0000

In happier times.

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS
SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN
NOON (ET), BIG TEN NETWORK
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY AND VERY WINDY (18-20 MPH), 55 DEGREES.

Every week's preview introduction seems to warn of ever-more-dire consequences if we lose the game on that particular Saturday. Well, this one's easy: lose this game and:

we'll suffer the indignity of being the first Michigan State team EVAR to lose to two MAC opponents in one season;
we'll suffer the indignity of those two MAC teams being freaking Central and Western;
our season will essentially be over; and,
I will cry.

So, now that we have that out of the way, let's get to the preview! This week with extra malaise!

Western has had an up-and-down season, to say the least. They're 4-5; the losses are an opening-week blowout at Michigan, a close road loss to Indiana, another blowout at the hands of Northern Illinois, a home loss to Central Michigan, and a defeat last week at Kent State. WMU was expected by many to challenge for their conference title, so a 4-5 record is a pretty huge disappointment for Bronco fans. (Sound familiar?) Nonetheless, this is an experienced team led by an accomplished senior quarterback. After the CMU game, I doubt that there was any chance we'd look past WMU . . . but if we somehow do, the Broncos may be talented enough to take advantage.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: Given the state of our defense, this advice probably will apply to all of our remaining games, but none more than this Saturday's: sell out to defend the pass, and make them beat us with the running game. Brandon West is the primary Bronco running back, and while his numbers (161 carries, 824 yards, 5.1 ypc) aren't terrible, the majority of those yards have come in three games: two against two middling-to-bad MAC rush defenses (Buffalo and Toledo), and one 1-AA opponent (Hofstra). As a team, WMU's rushing offense is 10th out of 13 in the MAC, averaging only a shade over 100 yards per game. Our rush defense has been good. We should have no problem stopping their rushing attack; in fact, every time they hand the ball off, it's essentially a win for our defense.

But the WMU passing offense . . . that's a bit different. WMU is 3rd in the MAC in passing offense (284 yards per game) and 6th in pass efficiency. Tim Hiller is obviously a standout and a potential NFL prospect; by the time he leaves Kalamazoo, he'll be the owner of every significant WMU career passing record. He's big (6'5" and 234 pounds) and not a real scrambling threat; this is disturbing only because that's the mold of most QBs that have given MSU real trouble this year (Clausen, Tolzien, Weber, etc.). In his other two starts against Big Ten defenses this season (and mediocre ones at that--Michigan and Indiana), Hiller was decent:

ATT COMP COMP % YARDS TD INT RATING

MICHIGAN 22 38 57.9 258 1 2 113.31

INDIANA 28 43 65.1 266 1 0 124.75

The Michigan stats are greatly inflated by a 73 yard garbage-time touchdown pass. The Indiana stats aren't terrible, but almost certainly won't be enough to win the game for WMU on Saturday.

Statistically, Hiller hasn't been as good this season as he was last year. His rating is way down, as is his completion percentage, his yards per game, yards per attempt and completion, and his TD-INT ratio. (All of this probably has lots to do with the fact that WMU's top two receivers in 2008 both graduated.) However, his sacks are up -- 16 already this year, against only 14 for the entirety of last season.

Hiller's main targets this year are Robert Arnheim and Juan Nunez, but the main thing that's notable about the receiver corps is how deep it is and how well the Broncos spread the ball around: 5 receivers have more htan 30 receptions on the year, and a sixth has more than 20. This could pose problems for an MSU secondary which is thin and has looked utterly clueless in countless instances this season.

Basically, the WMU pass offense isn't spectacular, but it's decent, and it's really the only thing that can keep WMU in the game. Nonetheless, given MSU's laughable track record against one-dimensional passing offenses this season, there's no guarantee of success on our part. The Broncos have allowed a fair amount of sacks this season, so we should really put an emphasis on getting to the quarterback and disrupting Hiller's rhythm. Beyond that, uh, we should cover their receivers? I think we all understand far too well at this point the areas which need improvement.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: . . . we should dominate a Western defense which has struggled mightily against the pass. The Broncos are 13th in the MAC in pass defense (dead last!) and 9th in pass efficiency defense. They have the second-fewest sacks in the MAC. At the beginning of the year, Tim Sullivan at mgoblog said this:

If Western's run defense was pretty bad last year, their pass defense was downright terrible. Facing the same motley crew of offenses, they finished #102 in the nation in pass defense. They were a more respectable #62 in pass efficiency defense.) That indicates they were in lots of shootouts last year (a couple) and games in which the opponent was trying to mount a comeback (a couple more).

The Bronco defense soared to those heights despite two players selected in the NFL Draft in Louis Delmas (2nd Round to the Lions, still technically in the NFL) and EJ Biggers (7th Round to the Buccaneers). I think it's safe to say that you can't expect WMU to replace two NFL-caliber players at one position group. Ohio State they are not. The lone returning starter is strong safety Mario Armstrong.

They've been as bad as advertised. And, For what it's worth, WMU's rush defense hasn't been much better: opponents are averaging 176 yards per game, good for 94th in the country. This also might be a game to see if Baker and Caper can break a few big runs and get some confidence.

This is a very, very short offensive preview for a reason: there's not much to say other than Western is a bad defense, and we should rack up a lot of yards and a lot of points against them. The fewest points WMU has allowed to a 1-A school this season is 23 (to Indiana, no less); overall, they're averaging more than 27 points allowed per game, good for 80th nationally. This. Is. Not. A. Good. Defense. And if we don't score at least 30 points . . . we'll (a) have either called off the dogs in a blowout, or (b) have played terribly on offense.I hate the "we can only stop ourselves" cliche, but here, it's true.

FINAL PREDICTION: I actually really agree with what Graham Couch of the Kalamazoo Gazette said, in an article KJ linked to earlier today:

If Michigan State hadn’t lost to Central Michigan already this year, a WMU win wouldn’t feel so farfetched. But it’s hard to imagine an uninspired effort from the Spartans considering that loss and how much they need this game. That said, the prospect of bowl-eligibility didn’t help Iowa or Illinois get up for the Broncos either of the last two years. Here’s the difference: Both Iowa and Illinois were bad offenses; Michigan State is not.

MSU the better team here, and we desperately need this win to keep ourselves in contention for a bowl berth. After losing to CMU earlier this year, there's no way we (should!) look past this game. In 2007, we lost a heartbreaker to Michigan, and then came back to beat Purdue and Penn State to clinch a bowl berth. This year, the task is substantially easier: beat WMU and Purdue and we're in a bowl. While last week's debacle clearly shows that this team is capable of losing nearly any game, I really doubt it happens here. 41-21, MSU.

And if it does happen here, I mean, last week's thread of shame is going to look like the post-Michigan discussion by comparison. Please, football team of my beloved Alma Mater, do not let this happen.

Projecting the rookies: WhatIfSports takes it on

Fooch — Fri, 01 May 2009 15:00:13 -0000

I'm curious how many folks have heard of whatifsports.com? It's a rather comprehensive site that does a combination of projections and fantasy sports. Doing a fantasy league with all-time players can be oh so addictive. I highly recommend it if you have some free time....or even if you don't.

Anyways, I noticed a post at Mike Sando's ESPN blog last night that mentioned something rather interesting and I wanted to get people's thoughts on it. The folks at WhatIfSports put together an annual NFL preview that includes stat projections for every single player. Not so surprisingly, the hardest projections are for rookies. As they put it:

To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factors collegiate performance, role in college, strength of collegiate competition, "measurables," likely NFL role, previous performance of a similar player in that NFL role for this coaching staff and trends of similar rookies in the past. This gives us the player's projected ratio stats (expected yards per carry, completion percentage, etc.), as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming season. From there, we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact for his new NFL team in his first year.

The results? Well, they came up with a ranking of the top 100 rookies. For the 49ers, Scot McKillop finished #62, one spot ahead of offensive lineman Michael Oher. I'm not quite sure how much an impact McKillop will have as a rookie. He'll get a lot of special teams playing time, but I'm curious how much he'll be on the field the rest of the game. If Spikes stays healthy, who knows...

More importantly for now though, the #1 rookie in terms of positive impact was our very own Michael Crabtree (and yes it still sounds good saying that):

Unlike last season, when three players eclipsed the mark, there are no 1,000-yard rushers or receivers projected from this group of rookies. Crabtree is the closest thing and it really would not be a surprise to see him do it. He gets great marks across the board from college performance, to NFL opportunity, to "measurables" and even a successful player (Issac Bruce) in this role last season. The only concerns with this projection would be inconsistency at quarterback – Shaun Hill, Damon Huard, Alex Smith and Nate Davis are the options – and recent injuries to his feet and ankles.

The remaining top 10 were:

2. Matthew Stafford, QB
3. Mark Sanchez, QB
4. Percy Harvin, WR
5. Aaron Curry, LB
6. Jason Smith, OT
7. Andre Smith, OT
8. Kenny Britt, WR
9. Hakeem Nicks, WR
10. Louis Delmas, S

Thoughts on the rankings? In the case of Stafford, when a team goes 0-16 I'd imagine there really is nowhere to go but up. I remain skeptical about Mark Sanchez, but maybe WhatIfSports has a better idea of this than me. I was intrigued to see Jeremy Maclin ranked 24th overall and behind Heyward-Bey, Nicks, Britt and Harvin. So, any thoughts on whether some folks are over or under-rated?

Lions Introduce Day One Picks

Sean Yuille — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 19:35:36 -0000

More photos » by Jerry S. Mendoza - AP

8 months ago: Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz, left, quarterback Matthew Stafford, of Georgia, safety Louis Delmas of Western Michigan and tight end Brandon Pettigrew, of Oklahoma St., pose for a photographs during a news conference where they were introduced to the media and public on Sunday, April 26, 2009 in Allen Park, Mich. The Lions drafted Stafford with the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. (AP Photo/Jerry S. Mendoza)

Browse more photos »

Check out the Lions' draft page for more from today's press conference.

Where Gonzo Talks About the First Day of the NFL Draft

Gonzo — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 04:32:50 -0000

"I'm no football expert, but I know what I hate. . .and I don't hate this."
-C. Montgomery Burns, American entrepreneur (sort of)

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the first day of the NFL draft has come and gone in pretty much record time. The first round only lasted three hours and forty-two minutes, the fastest since the league went to 32 teams by a long shot. Our Beloved Purple did quite well for themselves, if you ask me. The Cleveland Browns were thwarted in their quest to acquire every pick in the sixth round of the draft, the Broncos had five selections in the first two rounds and somehow found a way to not take Rey Maualuga with any of them, and Al Davis. . .well, he's still Al Davis, and we wouldn't have it any other way.

In the interest of equal time, since we already had a story with a picture of Minnesota's first round pick in it, you'll see to your right a picture of Minnesota's second round draft pick, Oklahoma offensive tackle Philip Loadholt. As you can see, Loadholt is rather large, standing in at 6'8" and tipping the scales at 335 pounds. Most importantly, he has a very good chance of pushing Ryan Cook out of the starting lineup, which is something that I think we're all looking forward to. I know I am.

Drafting a tackle to play tackle. Crazy, isn't it?

So, yes, I love the Loadholt pick. I'm also coming around on the Percy Harvin pick, and will have something more extensive on it here shortly. What I have to say about it right now is that if Brad Childress went down to Gainesville this past week, had a heart-to-heart with Harvin, and decided he was worth the risk. . .well, then, he's be worth the risk. What I'm interested in is to see how the Vikings will utilize him in the context of their offense. You don't take a guy like a Percy Harvin without having some idea of how you'd like to use him. Yes, yes, I know he got busted for pot before the Combine. But, after the pick was made, a couple of things occurred to me. . .

1) The last wide receiver we drafted in the first round with "character issues" was that Moss fellow back in 1998. That seemed to work relatively well. I'd rather my receivers have "character issues" than "watching the ball bounce off your face mask rather than catching it" issues. (See also: Williamson, Troy)

2) Last season, we sent a first round selection and two third round selections to the Kansas City Chiefs to acquire a guy that, before that, was basically an alcoholic that had picked up two DUI convictions in the span of five months. That seems to be working okay thus far.

3) Harvin isn't the first guy in the history of NFL. . .or even *gasp* in college. . .that has smoked marijuana. He won't be the last. I don't like it, and I don't endorse it, but I'm not going to crucify him for it, either.

So, yes, all in all I think the Vikings have done well for themselves on Day One of the draft, and I'm very much looking forward to seeing what transpires tomorrow. I'm also happy that Day Two has the more "traditional" draft start time of 9 AM Central rather than having to wait until 3 PM.

Some of my other observations from Day One of the 2009 Draft from around the league.

--If, at any point in my tenure as the head guy at this site, the words "Good job, Al Davis" or any variant thereof come across my keyboard, please have somebody track me down and just pummel me with a heavy, blunt object until I lose consciousness. I mean, seriously. . .it's not even the Heyward-Bey pick that kills me, although I personally think it was awful. They took a guy in Round Two. . .and, frankly, I can't even remember the guy's name. . .that Mel Kiper had rated as the seventy-third best safety in this year's draft. Really, it might have been the biggest reach in the history of the draft, and I can say that without exaggeration.

I'm going to hang out by my phone tomorrow, in case the Raiders would like to draft me at some point. I've been working out.

--As far as the NFC North, the two teams that did have Day One selections had some good and some bad. B.J. Raji was a good pick for the Packers at #9, and he should help ease their transition to the 3-4 defense. LB Clay Matthews, on the other hand? Doesn't worry or impress me in the least. I am glad, however, that the Packers had to give up as much as they did to get a guy that, frankly, isn't that good.

The Lions did a good job. . .as well they should have, what with three of the first 33 picks at their disposal. I can't believe that Matthew Stafford is going to get almost $42 million in guaranteed cash, but that's where we are in the NFL these days. (Rookie wage scale, anyone?) They also got the best tight end in the draft in Brandon Pettigrew. Their pick of Louis Delmas at the top of Round Two is a bit of a head-scratcher, particularly when they could have used an offensive lineman, but he was one of the top-rated safeties in the draft, so I suppose it could have been worse.

The Bears? No Day One picks. Makes the analysis very easy.

--I really don't know how Rey Maualuga not only went behind both his USC linebacker teammates, but fell out of the first round entirely. Maybe he was night putting with the daughter of the dean or something, I don't know. The Bengals got themselves a very nice steal at the top of the second round.

We'll have more observations from the draft tomorrow as the draft moves along. Until then, I hope you enjoyed the double-barrelled coverage that we had of Day One, and we'll be back for more fun and excitement tomorrow. Have a good one, ladies and gentlemen!

Recapping Day One of the 2009 NFL Draft

Sean Yuille — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 03:26:23 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

8 months ago: Georgia's Matthew Stafford, right, holds up a jersey with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, after the Detroit Lions selected Stafford as the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall Saturday, April 25, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

Browse more photos »

In the weeks leading up to the draft, Martin Mayhew and Jim Schwartz made it clear that the Lions were going to make picks based on talent, not need. I assumed need would still play a big part in the picks, with talent determining which needs are filled. What I mean by that is when the Lions went on the clock, I figured they would have a couple positions in mind and then draft the best player available. That way they can get the best of both worlds, addressing both a need and adding talent at the same time.

I can't deny that the above strategy is exactly what the Lions did, though I am a bit surprised as far as which "needs" they chose to address. Going into the draft, defense was the biggest concern of mine. Probably the second biggest issue I saw with the Lions' roster was the offensive line, as Matthew Stafford needs to be protected whenever he does play. Considering that, how many of the previously mentioned needs did the Lions fill after picking Stafford? Well, technically they did draft a defensive player, but it was at a position that didn't have that pressing of a need. Also, they did fill a need on offense, but like the defensive pick, it was for a position that I didn't feel should have been a top priority. I guess that's part of drafting talent over need.

Here is more detailed look at how day one of the draft played out for the Lions:

Round 1 - Pick No. 1 - QB Matthew Stafford (Georgia)

There's not much to add to this selection. Stafford was quickly introduced as the top pick of the draft and quickly went through the photo ops with his family and Roger Goodell. After that, he did a bunch of different interviews and was put on the backburner for Lions fans. We already had talked about him enough, and the Lions still had another first-round pick.

Grade: C

Selecting quarterbacks this high in the draft is really like a coin flip, so I can't go any higher than a C for this pick. I almost went lower just because the contract Stafford got is so ridiculous, but like I said, it's really 50-50 if he'll be any good or not. I guess that can be true for any player, but I just think someone like Aaron Curry is a less risky move. The Lions obviously weren't concerned with risk, though. If they were, they would have drafted Curry or Jason Smith, who both would have been safer picks. When we look back at this pick in a few years, it will probably be either an A or F, as quarterbacks usually turn out to be great players or busts. That is the main reason why I went with a C. I really don't know if he will be any good, but at the same time, I don't know if he will be bad, either.

Round 1 - Pick No. 20 - TE Brandon Pettigrew (Oklahoma State)

Leading up to this pick, the majority of commenters on Pride of Detroit were hoping that Rey Maualuga would fall to No. 20 so the Lions could finally fill their need at middle linebacker. Well, we got our wish, as Maualuga fell far beyond the 20th pick, but the Lions decided not to pick him. They also passed on Mississippi offensive tackle Michael Oher, who could have filled the Lions' need for a new left tackle. Like Maualuga, though, the Lions decided to go in a different direction.

That different direction was tight end Brandon Pettigrew, the top player in the draft at his position. Initially, I was very upset with this pick, as I didn't understand why the Lions passed on Rey Maualuga and Michael Oher. Looking back, though, I'm not quite as upset anymore. Pettigrew, barring any unforeseen issues, should be the Lions' starting tight end this season. He is athletic, can catch the ball, and is a great run-blocker. I'll expand on the type of player he is next week when I post a scouting report, but the Lions finally appear to have a solid tight end.

Even though I'm not greatly upset with the pick, I still believe the Lions would have been better off addressing their need at left tackle rather than tight end. Michael Oher was available, and I would have preferred to see him get picked. Even so, it's not like they passed on Oher for some no-name that doesn't help the roster at all. Pettigrew should be a starter, so at least the pick upgrades the roster. I still don't think tight end should have been a higher priority than LT or one of the many defensive needs, but then again, I also thought Rey Maualuga should have been the pick (more on him in a second).

Grade: B+

I'm not really comfortable giving out an A for this pick simply because the Lions decided to fill a need at TE over improving the defense or upgrading the offensive line. As solid of a player as Pettigrew may be, I just can't ignore the fact that he is only a tight end. Don't get me wrong, having an elite tight end can make your offense that much better, but the Lions aren't a team in position to worry about upgrading their tight end over one of their many other more pressing needs. I hate to keep harping on that same point, but that's what I keep coming back to. Even if Pettigrew turns out to be great, I think this pick could have been spent on helping out a more important position. Even so, it still was a decent pick, especially once it became a realization that there was a problem with Maualuga.

Round 2 - Pick No. 33 - S Louis Delmas (Western Michigan)

After experiencing the disappointment of the Lions passing on Rey Maualuga with the 20th pick, there was shock when he was still available at the No. 33 selection. I started to think that Martin Mayhew made a great move by waiting for Maualuga, as he could still end up a Lion. That thought quickly vanished after the pick was announced, though. Maualuga's name wasn't called, and the realization set in that something was up with him. It took until the Bengals made the 38th pick for Maualuga to be taken off the board, which is just shocking to me. There were no real red flags mentioned publicly going into the draft, and I don't think anyone expected him not to be a first-rounder. He ended up dropping big time, however, and it's obvious there must be something wrong we don't know about.

Even though the Lions passed on a middle linebacker, they did pick a defensive player. Specifically, they took WMU safety Louis Delmas, who is regarded as the top player at his position by many. Delmas was expected to be taken sometime in the second-round, but not by the Lions. I figured Detroit would address one of its needs at middle linebacker or defensive tackle/end, but they opted to upgrade the safety position instead. I say upgrade because there wasn't really a need at safety. The position could use some help, but not to the point where they have a need. That is my biggest issue with this pick. They still don't have a middle linebacker coming out of the first day of the draft, and they had a shot at James Laurinaitis along with Rey Maualuga. I realize they probably took Maualuga off their board for whatever reason, but Laurinaitis would have been a good value pick at No. 33.

As far as Delmas goes, he seems like a solid player. Like the other picks, I will have more on him in a scouting report next week. In the meantime, I think the best way to sum Delmas up is by saying that despite his lack of size, he plays a very physical style of football. That is probably a big reason why the Lions picked him. They want to become a more physical team.

Grade: B-

Similar to the Pettigrew pick, I had a hard time going above a B- for the Delmas selection because safety should not be as big of a priority as other positions on defense for the Lions. The Lions must know they can get a solid middle linebacker on the second day of the draft, and that's fine. I guess I just don't like seeing positions without any talent being ignored for positions where the Lions can get by for the time being. That's not to say that if a talented enough player is there you don't pick him because need is more important, but I don't see Delmas as someone that makes you ignore need. This obviously goes back to the Lions' strategy of drafting talent over need, but I just see Delmas more as someone that will compete for a starting job rather than be a near lock to start like Pettigrew is.

Overall: B-

It's no secret that I'm not thrilled with the Stafford pick, but his grade is really based on the uncertainty that comes with drafting a QB with the top pick. As for Pettigrew and Delmas, they reflect the strategy of drafting talent over need. I would have liked to see the Lions focus more on building the offensive line or linebacker corps, but they did pick up a pair of talented players. As stated already, Pettigrew should be a starter as a rookie, and Delmas will probably compete for a starting job. And I guess anytime the secondary is improved is a good thing.

In general, the Lions' performance during the first two rounds of the draft had lots of room for improvement, in my opinion. At the same time, though, they could have done much worse. Based on most pre-draft rankings, the Lions have the top quarterback, tight end, and safety. That is not bad by any means, though I still think the Lions would have been better served addressing needs at positions other than QB, TE, and S.

See you back here at 10 a.m. ET for day two of the draft!

Poll

What grade do you give the Lions for day one of the draft?

A

204 votes

B

602 votes

C

421 votes

D

283 votes

E

53 votes

F

189 votes

1752 votes | Poll has closed

Lions Draft Louis Delmas with 33rd Pick

Sean Yuille — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 23:45:05 -0000

With the 33rd pick of the NFL Draft -- the first pick of the second-round -- the Lions just selected Western Michigan safety Louis Delmas. Even though Rey Maualuga was there, the Lions opted to pick up the best safety in the draft. I think the next few picks will address the needs on defense, but one has to wonder what happened to Maualuga. Not only are the Lions passing on him, but other teams are as well. James Laurinaitis was just the first true inside linebacker drafted, so obviously there is some red flag with Maualuga we don't know about.

I'm not a huge fan of this pick, but it's becoming evident that there is something wrong with Maualuga. Considering that, I understand this pick. Delmas is the best safety in the draft, and the Lions obviously don't have a whole lot of faith in any of their current safeties. Even with that being said, I don't know if safety was the first position that should have been addressed on defense. Regardless, the Lions are staying true to their promise of drafting talent over need.

Theorizing the Buffalo Bills' NFL Draft plan

Brian Galliford — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 18:00:13 -0000

More photos » by MARK J. TERRILL - AP

USC outside linebacker Clay Matthews III is a likely first-round target of the Buffalo Bills. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)

Browse more photos »

We are now officially 26 hours away from the start of the 2009 NFL Draft. The time has arrived where Buffalo Bills fans (as well as NFL fans in general) cross the realm from mock draft land to the land of rumors and speculation. We're happy to add a little bit of both to your Bills thoughts and discussions this afternoon.

Throughout the pre-draft process, we have closely monitored the rises and falls of draft prospects' stock as well as been the beneficiary of some (incomplete) legitimate first-hand information. From there, we have boiled it down into a simple pre-draft post for y'all to ponder this afternoon. There is a degree of truth to the post - but please don't take it to be anything more than that. This is a theory post - not a law post. We believe thoroughly that what we type below can, and probably will, change in an instant when the draft begins tomorrow afternoon.

High-Priority Round One Targets
Through various discussions that we've had over the past several weeks, we believe that we can identify four targets that the Buffalo Bills will focus on in the first round. We know that the Bills like all of these players, but that's where the knowledge ends and speculation begins. We have no idea where these players fit on the draft board or how they figure into the plans, but you can rest assured that the Bills are interested in the following four names (listed in our believed order of preference, though clearly we don't have - and wouldn't want - a means to confirm this):

Andre Smith, OT, Alabama. The massive 340-pound Jason Peters clone is one of the hottest names in the draft right now despite a rocky pre-draft process and lingering questions about his maturity. He could go as high as No. 4 overall to Seattle, but rest assured he wouldn't slip past the Bills at No. 11. (And no, we don't think Buffalo is serious about trading up for him.)

Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State. We have spoken at length about the Bills' preference for finding immediate, well-rounded contributors at the top of the draft. The Bills lost a degree of physicality in their run blocking department when Peters was traded. Pettigrew would instantly restore that as well as give Trent Edwards a solid short-area and red zone target. There isn't a more NFL-ready player in this draft class.

Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee. Mike Mayock's favorite defensive prospect is flying up draft boards thanks to an impressive pre-draft process and a terribly weak natural 4-3 defensive end class. He's not a guy that will immediately solve Buffalo's pass rushing woes, but he can play immediately on any down, has a lot of natural ability, and can be a major player in Buffalo's DE rotation.

Clay Matthews III, OLB, USC. Put all thoughts of Brian Cushing out of your head, folks - the Bills (and many other NFL teams) see Matthews as the best of the LB bunch from USC with the most upside. Matthews is an elite blitzing prospect, having played the elephant (rush linebacker) position as a Trojan, but he's got the athletic chops to man virtually any linebacker position imaginable. Buffalo will do its absolute best to not enter 2009 with Keith Ellison as a starting linebacker. Matthews would help them accomplish that.

We've heard the rumors that the Bills are exploring a trade up to land Alabama's Smith, but we're not buying it - even if we do know that Smith tops the Bills' board at OT by a considerable margin. The Bills have too many holes. Far more importantly, this team's front office and coaching staff - particularly head coach Dick Jauron - has too much invested in this draft class to throw half of it away for one player. They are in win now mode, and trading picks for one guy doesn't help the team plug holes. If anything, we believe the team would prefer to trade down. It's likely that the Bills have discussed (and will continue to discuss) moving up, but we see it as a due diligence matter that won't get any further than the exploratory stages. (Feel free to speculate on if that theory is shot when/if Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry begins to slide.)

If you're asking me now (or any time within the past two weeks), I think the Bills would ideally like to find a way to get two of these players onto its roster. With two first-round picks and nine in total, they have the ammo to shift themselves into better position in the first round to get that done. We're not making any promises, but given Smith's popularity at the moment, we think that the team will be aggressive in nabbing two of Pettigrew, Ayers and Matthews tomorrow afternoon.

What if that doesn't work? Good question - and it's actually one that we're not too thrilled to ponder. Head on in past the jump to peruse five names that we think the Bills might focus on if they can't land two of the names listed above.

Be prepared to pinch your nose, because we're guessing that the notion of taking any of these guys at No. 28 wouldn't thrill most of you. We're not jumping for joy at the thought, either, and we're guessing the Bills themselves will do their best to avoid it. The Bills will likely focus on two things if they can't get two of their (as we see it) top four targets: offensive line help and defensive playmaking - position be damned.

That's why I think these five guys become priorities if two of the four names mentioned aren't Bills by pick No. 28. Yes - this is ALL speculation on my part, and shouldn't be taken as anything more.

Eben Britton, OT, Arizona. He visited Buffalo on a pre-draft visit, so we at least know the Bills are curious. Britton is one of the most boring prospects you'll ever encounter - nothing about his game is exciting, and he doesn't have one trait that blows you out of the water. He will likely be a liability as a rookie when it comes to pass protection, which means he'll play RT in his first season. But he's a solid athlete that competes, finishes and plays the game intelligently. If the Bills are serious about moving Langston Walker to the left side, Britton would be a safe investment with the potential for a long, stellar career.

Andy Levitre, OG, Oregon State. I don't think it's a lock at all that the Bills target OT with either of their first round picks (unless, obviously, Smith is available). Britton will be considered, but I think it's far more likely that the Bills look at an interior lineman like Levitre. A left tackle in college, Levitre lacks the measurables to play outside in the NFL - but he's got loads of potential as a guard. He plays mean, finishes blocks and has good hands and feet. He's a little rough around the edges, but he's an immediate starter, unlike Britton. That in itself leads me to believe he'd be the top offensive lineman on Buffalo's list at the end of round one and into round two.

Max Unger, G/C, Oregon. Here's another non-flashy player with traits similar to Levitre - positional versatility, intelligence, and a bit of a mean streak. The interior line has always been an area where the Bills look for players that can play multiple positions. Unger is exactly that player, having played LT and C in college. He's another immediate starter.

Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest. We told you it wasn't ideal. We also told you that defensive playmaking was a priority - and Smith is certainly that, having amassed 21 career interceptions at Wake, including 15 in his final two seasons. He's small (5'9", 193 pounds), but size has never stopped the Bills from taking a DB. Smith is aggressive, physical for his size, and possessor of the best ball skills amongst the DB class this year. I think he could beat out Drayton Florence for the nickel corner role right out of the gate - and he offers a bit of return upside as well. CB is obviously not a need, but position won't prohibit the Bills from drafting the best, most impactful players they can find. It's obvious they'd like to avoid it - but as Smith visited Buffalo in March, they clearly like him as a prospect.

Louis Delmas, SS, Western Michigan. I'm very confident that the Bills will take a corner at some point considering the fact that three of their corners (Terrence McGee, Ashton Youboty, Florence) all have contracts expiring within the next two seasons. The same is true at safety, where all five of the team's current players are in the tail ends of their respective deals as well. Delmas is the most complete safety in this class - physical with good range; solid against both the run and the pass; productive, experienced and a leader. In short, he's everything the Bills look for - and he'd likely beat out Bryan Scott for the starting strong safety role by mid-season. Again, it's obviously not ideal from any angle, but production is production - and the Bills could consider this kid if the worst comes to fruition.

That's all we've got. We're speculated out. Consider this your open thread for Draft Eve; we'll hit you back tomorrow morning with our final, very trade-happy first-round mock draft, and then official NFL Draft proceedings begin tomorrow at noon eastern. Hang tight, Bills fans - we're almost there!

2009 NFL Draft: Official Scouts Inc. 7-round mock draft

Fooch — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 15:00:13 -0000

While we do have an official mock drafting FanPost, I thought the official 7-round mock draft presented by Scouts Inc and Todd McShay was worth posting to the front page. Well, the 7 rounds for the 49ers at least. If you have any questions about who went where, post it in the comments and I (or anybody else with Insider access) will be happy to post an answer. I figure that doesn't cross ethical boundaries....maybe.

1. Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss - While I do like Oher, this remains less than inspiring given where Oher is listed among best players available. If it comes down to Oher and Sanchez I remain convinced the 49ers will trade down. Of course McShay and Co. actually have Sanchez going 4th overall. I'm really quite intrigued to see what happens with Sanchez on Saturday.

2. Louis Delmas, FS, Western Michigan - A quick search brought up a Mocking the Draft scouting report on Delmas (and the fact that the Cowboys took him with their 2nd round pick in our mock draft). The general idea with Delmas is that he is great in coverage, but a bit soft in tackling and might be a bit undersized. As a 4-year starter and 3-time all MAC player he would likely be able to provide some solid competition for Dashon Goldson.

3. Sebastian Vollmer, OT, Houston - Vollmer ranks right behind Phil Loadholt and Jamon Meredith among offensive tackles. At 6'7, 314lbs he definitely brings some serious size to the tackle position. It sounds like his primary weaknesses are bull rushers getting in under him and generally plays too high. Of course, when you're 6'7, I'd imagine it's difficult to play low. Is it possible for a guy to be toooo tall at offensive tackle?

4. Kenny McKinley, WR, South Carolina - The folks at Mile High Report have an interesting scouting report on the 6'0, 189lb corner from USC. Size-wise he seems like Dominique Zeigler. However, his hands don't seem quite as sure as Zeigler's can be. If he has to add some bulk in the NFL it could hurt his speed. At the same time, he seems to play well against zone defenses. Who knows how smart a player he is but he seems to recognize the limitations of his size.

5a. James Davis, RB, Clemson - While it's hard to tell at this point, some folks would have you believe Davis is worth upwards of a third round pick. From what the Scout's Inc report indicates, Davis is not the fastest guy in the world but has a strong ability to read the defense and exploit holes. All things considered, I wonder how much more the 49ers would be getting from him than what we already get in Frank Gore. The 49ers do need another running back, but would it be better to go with a more complementary back?

5b. Ryan Mouton, CB, Hawaii - At 5'9, 187 lbs, Mouton definitely doesn't bring much size to the secondary. At the same time he seems to have a lot of athleticism and really likes to hit folks. While he might turn into a solid NFL corner, I see him as more of a special teams guy. Anybody who is small and likes to hit people seems to work well as a special teams option.

After the jump we go through the 49ers last three picks and give some wrap-up analysis.

6. Anthony Parker, G, Tennessee - At 6'1 297lbs, one of the main concerns with Parker is his somewhat below average size for an NFL guard. Apparently his speed is fine but if he has to put on weight, will the speed come down? He seems to have the skills needed to be successful, but I keep coming back to size. The NFL is getting bigger and bigger. Any thoughts on relatively undersized offensive linemen?

7a. Tom Brandstater, QB, Fresno State - I put together a scouting report back in early March about the local boy. He's got size and surprising speed for such a guy. The problem is accuracy. If they snagged him in the 7th round I would be quite pleased at the value. I'm not sure if he's a long-term solution, but I'm intrigued to see what could happen with him in camp.

7b. Derek Walker, DE, Illinois - Walker is a bit undersized for a defensive end, but he seems like a guy who could fit the 3-4 DE role of occupying blockers. It sounds like he brings solid strength to the position which seems like one more positive for the 3-4 DE role.

So there you have it. Three different OL, FS, CB, DE, QB, RB and WR. I find value in a lot of the picks, but I'm not sure I see three offensive linemen being drafted. Maybe two, but three seems a bit much. Walker is the only DL/LB taken and it sounds like he can't make the conversion to OLB. I definitely think an OLB gets drafted somewhere in there.

I'm sure folks have plenty of areas of disagreement with this mock. Thoughts?

2009 Stampede Blue Community Mock Draft Round Two: Picks 39, 40, and 41

BigBlueShoe — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 12:50:28 -0000

39. Jacksonville Jaguars

Duke Robinson, OG, Oklahoma

Drafter: Skywalker

40. Oakland Raiders

Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan

Drafter: JPBarnett

41. Green Bay Packers

William Beatty, OT, UConn

Drafter: dkloster3

ROTB Community Mock Draft: With the 46th Overall Pick, the Houston Texans Select...

Andrew602 — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 12:48:40 -0000

Louis Delmas (FS), Western Michigan

6"0", 202

The Texans have been trying to build a dominating defense for the past several years and the addition of Delmas will help a secondary that was in the bottom half of nearly every defensive passing category. Delmas could serve a 'jack of all trades' role early in his career contributing as a third safety or a nickel corner and in a division that faces Peyton Manning twice a season, you can't ever have to many defensive backs.

Positives: Delmas has an athletic build and he can still add some bulk to his frame. He's a physical defender with some explosiveness as a tackler and he is a willing run supporter. He's got good range, plus hands and the ability to read the QB's eyes and make a big play. As a four year starter in the MAC, Delmas was a hard worker and very productive.

Negatives: Delmas isn't overly athletic and he hasn't wowed scouts with his top end speed, quickness or burst. He can get into trouble when he's too aggresive can be an inconsistent tackler when he tries to go low or force a big hit. He'll need to bulk up a bit and learn to play within a system.

First Round Pick: Clay Matthews

Many thanks to RedReign for submitting this pick. The Patriots and Hawk's wife are now on the clock with the Broncos and AJBirdwatcher on deck. If anyone needs to refresh their memory on the second round draft order, check here

	ATT	COMP	COMP %	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
MICHIGAN	22	38	57.9	258	1	2	113.31
INDIANA	28	43	65.1	266	1	0	124.75