SB Nation - Dwayne Sanders

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 14:00:19 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

After four games in 2009, Missouri could be 4-0, and they could be 2-2 (or, technically, worse). While Illinois is clearly the biggest name on the non-conference slate, the most interestingly challenging opponent will likely be Nevada. Never mind that it's a road game, far away, on a Friday night. And never mind how hypnotically good Colin Kaepernick looks for a handful of plays each game. Football is about matchups, and Nevada appears to match up quite well with a Missouri team full of different strengths and weaknesses than last year's squad. Let's take a look.

The best running QB in college football.

2008

Record: 7-6 (5-3 in WAC)
S&P+: 215.11 (#36)
Scoring Margin: 489-420 (+69)
Conference Scoring Margin: 320-234 (+86)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): Fresno State (#61), Louisiana Tech (#86), UNLV (#88), Utah State (#99), San Jose State (#101), Idaho (#119), Grambling State (N/A)
Losses: Boise State (#7), Missouri (#10), Texas Tech (#15), Maryland (#52), Hawaii (#53), New Mexico State (#111)

So...how good was Nevada in 2008? They played Texas Tech tough in Reno, and they almost completed a dramatic comeback in falling short to Boise State by a touchdown. They made mincemeat of a series of bad teams, and they looked alright against Maryland...

...but they didn't actually beat anybody good. Yes, Fresno State and Louisiana Tech were both bowl teams, and UNLV beat Arizona State, but none of those teams were in the upper half of the final S&P+ rankings. They ended up 2-4 versus teams with winning records and 5-2 versus teams that finished .500 or worse. And...New Mexico State? Really? At home? This was a team with star power in Colin Kaepernick and, to a lesser extent, Vai Taua and Marko Mitchell, and pretty strong lineplay as well; but the back seven--the LBs and DBs--let this team down considerably. For that matter, so did only recovering 15 of 46 fumbles. Luck could be on their side in 2009, but experienced defenders need to bring it.

Coaching

Head Coach: Chris Ault
Record at Nevada: 198-90-1
Pythagorean Record Since 2004: +0.29 wins (+0.6/year)

Mr. Nevada

I like the first line of Chris Ault's NevadaWolfpack.com bio: "Simply put, Chris Ault is University of Nevada football." In 24 seasons as coach of the Wolfpack (over three stints), Ault has managed 198 wins and a .687 win percentage. In the last 24 seasons of Nevada football without Ault leading the way (1961-75, 1993, 1996-2003), they've managed 116 wins and a .470 win percentage. If Kansas State fans want hope for the second Bill Snyder Administration, look to Ault's time in Reno (and not John Robinson's time at USC and UNLV, or Bill Walsh's second stay in Palo Alto).

Nevada has been to four straight bowls, and while they haven't beaten many big-name opponents (UNR hasn't actually beaten a BCS-conference team finishing with a winning record since their move to 1-A in 1992--really, a blemish on Ault's record), they win. And there's absolutely no question that Ault will have his boys ready to rock and roll on a Friday night, especially against a team that beat them by 52 points last year. It offers the perfect "hornet's nest" type of situation, in which a young BCS-conference team is ambushed by an experienced, angry non-BCS host.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+*: 113.3 (#30)
Success Rate+: 105.6 (#47)
PPP+: 123.6 (#22)

Standard Downs** S&P+: 107.8 (#44)
Passing Downs S&P+: 122.3 (#23)

Redzone S&P+: 112.8 (#33)

Q1 S&P+: 107.1 (#53)
Q2 S&P+: 107.6 (#49)
Q3 S&P+: 115.7 (#26)
Q4 S&P+: 117.8 (#22)

1st Down S&P+: 113.6 (#30)
2nd Down S&P+: 98.1 (#70)
3rd Down S&P+: 125.6 (#16)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 127.6 (#8)
Rushing SR+: 112.5 (#28)
Rushing PPP+: 150.76 (#6)

Standard Downs: 120.5 (#12)
Passing Downs: 133.2 (#20)

Redzone: 124.32 (#20)

Line Yards+: 116.3 (#15)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 99.6 (#63)
Passing SR+: 97.1 (#69)
Passing PPP+: 103.4 (#57)

Standard Downs: 90.7 (#87)
Passing Downs: 120.6 (#27)

Redzone: 92.9 (#73)

Adj. Sack Rate***: 4.4% (#30)

* The general S&P+ stat used is really the "Close-Game S&P+" stat you know and love. The definition of "close game" has been expanded (Close game = within 24 points in Q1, 21 in Q2, and 16 or less, i.e. two possessions, in the second half). So what that means is that junk time yards/points are not included in these numbers, nor should they be.

** "Standard Downs" = what used to be "Non-Passing Downs". Passing Downs are defined as follows: Second-and-8 or more, third-and-5 or more, fourth-and-5 or more. Anything less than that—any first down, second-and-7 or less, third-and-4 or less, fourth-and-4 or less—are considered Standard Downs because running and passing are more-or-less equal options.

*** Adjusted Sack Rate is a new creation. It simply looks at the average of the Standard Downs and Passing Downs sack rates. As you'll see, combined with Line Yards+, this will give you a pretty good read of O-line performance.

As you would figure from the stereotypical good running team that plays 4,500 feet above sea level, the 'Pack improved offensively as the game wore on, getting better in each progressive quarter. Overall, they hovered around 50th in the country in the first half, and about 24th in the second. They were solid in the red zone, solid on first downs, and great on third downs with the Kaepernick rushing threat, but they did have some distinct weaknesses. Marko Mitchell was a good WR, but the numbers suggest that Nevada's passing game didn't scare many people.

If the Wolfpack are going to become a team with "BCS buster" potential in 2009, Kaepernick has to find a good weapon to keep defenses honest in non-passing situations. Yes, he's great outside the pocket, and Nevada had some nice Passing Downs success thanks to the "Will he run or throw?" conundrum, but he can't do that every play, and UNR will need to figure out how to better avoid Passing Downs if they want to succeed at a very high level.

Quarterback

2008 Unit Ranking: #16 in the nation (#2 in the WAC)

Projected Depth Chart
Colin Kaepernick (6'6, 215, Jr.)
Tyler Lantrip (6'4, 220, So.)
Luke Collis (6'3, 210, So.)

One of the funnier moments of 2008 came when The Beef and I met with rptgwb and Uribe Auction (and, of course, MCboomofdoom) after last year's Mizzou-Nevada game to prepare for the postgame podcast. The first thing any of us could talk about was how amazing Colin Kaepernick was at the play-fake. When you expect him to run the ball at pretty much all times, and he still fools you when he keeps it, you know he's got a good fake going. Combine that with the fact that his legs are about six feet long and he reaches full speed in about two steps, and you've got one of the scarier runners from the quarterback position in college football. In fact, looking at Points Over Expected (POE--a figure we will become much more familiar with later on), he was the #1 rushing QB in college football last year.

Kaepernick's rushing ability, combined with his skill on passing downs, made Nevada's offense a major threat to score at pretty much any moment in 2008. But they didn't score at any moment. Why? Because they weren't the best at staying out of Passing Downs. It doesn't matter how good you are in Passing Downs--your odds are still better in Standard Downs, and the more Passing Downs you face, the more likely you are to fail even if you pull off a few great drive-saving plays. The Standard Downs success must improve.

Kaepernick missed spring practices while rehabbing a minor ankle injury. Backups Tyler Lantrip and Luke Collis both improved tremendously as the spring progressed, and both should be competent should anything happen to #10. That said, it's safe to say that neither can run (or play-fake) like Kaepernick, and if Nevada's beating Mizzou, it's probably not going to be with Lantrip or Collis on the field.

Running Backs

2008 Unit Ranking: #38 in the nation (#3 in the WAC)

Projected Depth Chart
Vai Taua (5'10, 225, Jr.)
Luke Lippincott (6'2, 215, Sr.)
Brandon Fragger (5'9, 195, Sr.)

That's Taua at the bottom. Okay, that was mean...

Here's Taua upright. He rushed for 100 yards seven times in 2008, including a combined 423 against Hawaii and Fresno State.

Few teams in the country are more experienced at running back than the Wolfpack will be in 2009. Vai Taua rushed for 1,521 yards in 2008 (6.4 per carry) as a sophomore, and he will return as the #1 guy. But meanwhile, #2 man Luke Lippincott was recently granted medical hardship year and will return in 2009 having rushed for 1,420 yards in 2007 before being sidelined with a knee injury. They have 633 career carries, pretty good for a 1-2 combination. Then, #3 man Brandon Fragger brings an extra 800 career rushing yards (and 22 receptions) to the table. Combined with Kaepernick's rushing prowess, this turns into a super-powered backfield; for comparison, Missouri fans should think of the Corby-Olivo-Blackwell-West combination of the late-1990s. All four runners have the potential to average over six yards a pop.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Wellington is Kaepernick's only proven weapon returning at WR.

2008 Unit Ranking: #32 in the nation (#3 in the WAC)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Chris Wellington (6'1, 185, Jr.)
Brandon Wimberly (6'3, 195, RSFr.)
Tray Session (6'3, 175, So.)
Maurice Patterson (6'3, 200, Jr.)
Malcolm Shepherd (6'3, 210, Jr.)
Dwayne Sanders (5'10, 175, Sr.)
L.J. Washington (6'0, 195, Fr.)
Arthur King (6'1, 195, Sr.)
Shane Anderson (6'1, 205, So.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Virgil Green (6'5, 225, Jr.)
Kevin Bohr (6'3, 240, Sr.)
Talaiasi Puloka (6'4, 240, Sr.)

If Mizzou can shut down the run, they should be in good shape in the desert on the last Friday of September. As inexperienced as Mizzou's secondary may end up, with a new CB starter opposite Carl Gettis, a sophomore leader in Kenji Jackson, and at least potentially a new starting safety in Jarrell Harrison (if he overtakes Hardy Ricks...and I hope he does), Nevada's receiving corps is equally inexperienced. Removing the 115 catches, 1,761 yards, and 12 touchdowns that Marko Mitchell and Mike McCoy brought to the table last year, all that's left is Chris Wellington (42 for 632 and 6 TDs), TE Virgil Green (13 for 136, 1 TD), and Arthur King (10 for 96). The Wolfpack have a lot of hope pinned to redshirt freshman Brandon Wimberley, who had a wonderful year on the scout team and looked good in the spring. If he and Wellington can approximate Mitchell and McCoy, the Nevada passing attack may be good enough to keep defenses from keying on the run.

Really, though, Wellington and Wimberly need to be better than Mitchell and McCoy. Again, Nevada's Standard Downs passing attack was simply not good enough to take out the big boys (Texas Tech, Missouri, Boise State) on the schedule last year. For the Wolfpack to take out Notre Dame or Missouri, they're going to need some extreme reliability from one of these guys. The sky's the limit if Wimberly turns out to be the real deal, though.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #8 in the nation (#1 in the WAC)

Projected Depth Chart
T Alonzo Durham (6'4, 285, Sr.)
T Mike Gallett (6'6, 295, Jr.)
G John Bender (6'8, 325, Jr.)
C Kenneth Ackerman (6'4, 280, Sr.)
G Chris Barker (6'4, 315, RSFr.)
G Aminiasi Silatolu (6'4, 295, Jr.)
T Steve Haley (6'5, 305, So.)
C Jeff Meads (6'3, 290, So.)
G Steve Werner (6'5, 310, RSFr.)
T Jose Acuna (6'6, 308, Jr.)

Durham's not oversized, but he's one of the WAC's best.

Missouri's defense got a lot of crap last year, and a lot of it was completely deserved. But they faced a murderous set of offenses in 2008, and few had better offensive lines than Nevada did. For them to hold Taua and Fragger to just 76 yards on 20 carries was extremely impressive, as was Mizzou's holding the overall UNR attack to just a 0.713 S&P. Unfortunately for Mizzou, their own defensive line is a lot less experienced in 2009, while Nevada's offensive line should be as good or better. Their 62 returning career starts rank them third in the WAC, and they've got 2-3 all-conference candidates in Alonzo Durham, Mike Gallett, and gigantic John Bender. We're all high on the threesome of Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter; well, Durham and Gallett will make up one of the better pairs of tackles Mizzou will face this year.

Summary

We'll discuss Nevada's defense tomorrow, and there are plenty of concerns and holes there. But this offense is extremely experienced, and while their inconsistency on Standard Downs is a concern for them (and an opportunity for Missouri), Nevada's going to score some points. The defense isn't great, but they'll have some leeway in that their offense will be putting up plenty of scores in the 30s and 40s in 2009. Chris Ault is renowned as one of the most innovative offensive minds in college football, and he will have one of the nation's best running attacks at his disposal, but if they're going to not only beat Missouri but challenge Boise State for a potential BCS slot, a go-to receiver will need to emerge, and, let's face it, Kaepernick's passing will need to improve. He's not a terrible passer by any means, and the threat of his legs give him leeway, but he is not the most efficient passer in the world, and hopefully Mizzou can force the Wolfpack into plenty of Passing Downs situations.

Nevada Links!

Bill C. — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 16:00:44 -0000

Time to talk about one of the most interesting, tricky opponents on the 2009 schedule: Nevada. Needless to say, Mizzou fans are still a bit scarred from the last time Mizzou played a weeknight ESPN game, and I think most fans are treating this game with a healthy amount of paranoia. The good news is, Nevada doesn't have DeMarcus Ware like Troy 2004 did. The bad news is, they do have Colin Kaepernick and an impressive backfield to work with, and the athletic-but-green Mizzou defensive line will likely have its hands full. To the links!

2008 Recap Links!

CFN.com: 2008 blurbs
Cumulative Season Statistics. Colin Kaepernick almost managed a 3,000/1,000 line, while Vai Taua went for 1,521 yards rushing, resulting in, as you'll see in tomorrow's BTBS preview, a Top 10 rushing offense. Mizzou shut the rushing attack down, for the most part (enough, anyway), in 2008--if they want to win on a Friday night in the desert, they'll have to do the same.

2009 Preview Links!

2009 Schedule
ESPN.com: Bruce Feldman's Top 10 potential BCS busters
The Pack are a long, long shot but they are a fun team to watch. Lanky QB Colin Kaepernick is a little like a cross between Robert Griffin and Terrelle Pryor. He's also got a few quality RBs to balance out the offense some. Their D-line's also pretty good. In terms of the schedule, the Pack would need a lot of help. They open at Notre Dame, which I think is going to be improved. The problem is if Nevada upsets the Irish in the opener. Chances are no one will put any stock in the Irish again the rest of the season and that would devalue the win quite a bit. The Pack host Mizzou, which figures to be down. If they win those games and come into the final game at Boise with both teams somehow unbeaten and pull the upset, that would get Nevada into a BCS bowl, but I think that's highly unlikely. Going 10-2 is still probably on the north side of optimistic.
Reno Gazette-Journal: 10 Most Important Players of 2009
Chris Wellington is the only returning receiver with significant experience and production, but there are a number of very promising first-year players at the position, most notably [Brandon] Wimberly. He has to be the guy he showed he can be on the scout team last year, and there is no reason to doubt he will. Four years from now, Pack fans might consider him one of the best to ever play here.
CFN.com: Spring Preview 2009 - The WAC
The most important position to watch is ... Wide receiver. The Wolf Pack has some huge holes to fill with the loss of Marko Mitchell and Mike McCoy. With the multiple receiver sets the coaching staff likes to use, it’s vital for new prospects like Maurice Patterson and Joe Washington to step into roles with Malcolm Shepard, Art King, and Dwayne Sanders returning. Nevada might butter its bread with the running game, but with a quarterback like Kaepernick, the passing game has the potential to be every bit as effective.

Spring Football Links!

NevadaWolfpack.com: Lantrip, Collins Shine in Spring Scrimmage
Tyler Lantrip threw for three touchdowns and Luke Collis tossed another as the Nevada football team held its final spring scrimmage on Saturday at Mackay Stadium. Lantrip and Collis, both sophomores, received 100 percent of the snaps during spring as starter Colin Kaepernick sat out spring while recovering from an ankle injury. The two sophomores are vying for the backup job.
NevadaWolfpack.com: 2009 Post-Spring Depth Chart

Et cetera!

Reno Gazette-Journal: Football season ticket sales already brisk
NevadaWolfpack.com: Luke Lippincott Granted ~~Twenty-Third~~ Sixth Year (seriously, that dude's been there forever)
Reno Gazette-Journal: Q&A with Chris Ault
I was really excited, really pleased with Luke Lippincott, who goes out and breaks the record for the Nevada Run. (Lippincott, a running back, missed nearly all of last season with a torn ACL and received a hardship waiver for a sixth season by the NCAA.) I've got to tell you, that's special. This Nevada Run is not for the quail heart. We've been doing this for 25 years, when you break that record, that's pretty special. I was really excited to see that. He's just getting back in the groove, and he told us, "I'm going to set the record." So I think Luke was just outstanding.

And finally...one community, one Pack...

Poll

On a scale of 1-10, how worried are you about the Nevada game?

1

4 votes

2

7 votes

3

12 votes

4

12 votes

5

7 votes

6

15 votes

7

36 votes

8

23 votes

9

9 votes

10

26 votes

151 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-Nevada: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 16:30:04 -0000

It's Thursday, so you know what that means...BTBS Day!! At some point in the season, I'll be able to start using 2008 '+' numbers, but the +'s need quite a decent sample size to be even remotely accurate, so for now I'm still going with the "2007 #'s + adjustments" method.

Mizzou-Nevada Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
Nevada Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 10.78
Projection #1: 19.27
Nevada Rushing Defense EqPts+: 132.50
2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
Projection #2: 12.23

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 15.75

Adjusted for 2008: 19.00 (Washington > Temple in my eyes, and if Nevada sells out to stop the pass, look out.)

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
Nevada Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 11.41
Projection #1: 17.06
Nevada Passing Defense EqPts+: 126.17
2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
Projection #2: 14.58

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 15.82

Adjusted for 2008: 19.00 (Mizzou's offense is harder to stop than Texas Tech because of both the running game and the use of tight ends. Tech may have a Jeremy Maclin equivalent--okay, better--in Michael Crabtree, but they don't have a Chase Coffman equivalent.)

Nevada Rushing

Nevada Rushing Offense EqPts+: 133.67
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
Projection #1: 11.08
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
Nevada Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 14.49
Projection #2: 9.53

Projected Nevada Rushing Output: 10.31

Adjusted for 2008: 7.00 (So far, Mizzou's been sturdy against the run, and combined with the loss of Luke Lippincott, UNR should find it hard to move the ball on the ground.)

Nevada Passing

Nevada Passing Offense EqPts+: 126.17
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
Projection #1: 15.32
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
Nevada Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 12.58
Projection #2: 8.92

Projected Nevada Passing Output: 12.12

Adjusted for 2008: 14.00 (Nevada's passing game is inconsistent, but pretty decent at the deep ball. Until Mizzou slows down a passing game, we have to give the edge to the opponent here.)

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 38, Nevada 21

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 41, Nevada 17

Special Teams

Nevada K Brett Jaekle is pretty decent. He missed two FGs last week, but he went 16-for-21 last year and is a decent option. New punter Brad Langley has done a bang-up job so far, averaging 46.9 yards per punt. One problem, though: in two games, Nevada's had a punt blocked and a punt returned for TD. You don't want to have weaknesses in your punting game when you come to Columbia. The return game for Nevada has been more or less a wash this year so far--Dwayne Sanders hasn't had many opportunities to return punts, and Brandon Fragger's been decent but not spectacular in a handful of kickoff returns. Two problems: 1) Nevada's settling for too many FGs (I'll address that below), and 2) Jeremy Maclin returns punts for Mizzou.

And once again, Mizzou has Jeff Wolfert--Nevada doesn't. Never in my life have I taken a 45-yard FG for granted (KNOCK ON WOOD), but that's where we've gotten with Wolfert.

Key Players: Nevada

QB Colin Kaepernick

I hate being predictable, but you have to put Kaepernick at the top of the list. Luke Lippincott is out, and while Nevada's other RBs--Vai Taua, Brandon Fragger--are at the very least competent (Taua might eventually turn out to be as productive as Lippincott), LL's absence does put more pressure on Kaepernick to create on his own. So far he's responded with decent stats--386 passing yards, 143 rushing yards in two games--but he needs to step up his game against the best team on Nevada's schedule. Also, after committing next to no turnovers last year, Kaepernick has three in the first two games of the year--2 INTs and 1 fumble. Missouri's given up quite a few yards so far this year, but if Kaepernick is careless with the ball, Mizzou is more than capable of making him pay.

One other thing--Nevada had numerous chances deep in Texas Tech territory and wasn't able to punch the ball into the endzone, with or without Lippincott. They attempted SIX FG's against Tech, and as was discussed in the offseason, settling for FGs against Mizzou = slow death. It's up to Kaepernick to will the ball into the endzone, and he hasn't proven he can do that consistently against a decent defense yet this year.

WR Marko Mitchell

The key to keeping up with Mizzou, other than not settling for FGs, will be scoring as many easy points as possible--long plays, turnovers, etc. For the "long plays" part of that equation, it's all about Marko Mitchell. Mitchell was a fantastic deep threat last year, and this year has been more of the same so far--in basically 1.5 games against Texas Tech and Grambling, Mitchell has 12 catches for a 16.3-yard average and 1 TD. Aside from maybe a Kaepernick scramble on a broken play, Mitchell represents Nevada's best chance at easy points, and he'll have to come up big at least twice for Nevada to have a chance.

OT's Mike Gallett and Alonzo Durham

Texas Tech racked up four sacks last week. Missouri racked up 5 sacks (four from the DEs) against a mobile QB in Juice Williams. While Mizzou's blitzing has been entirely ineffective, Stryker Sulak and Tommy Chavis are poised for a big game if the O-line--the OT's in particular--can slow them down. SEMO thrived in the "quick delivery" department, and Mizzou's pass rush was somehow held in check last week, but I don't expect that to happen again.

FS Uche Anyanwu

Anyanwu had a solid game against Tech, with 6 tackles and 1 TFL. He and CB Antoine Thompson--3 pass break-ups last week--are the biggest playmakers in Nevada's secondary, and a lot will be expected of them if Mizzou is going to be held under 5 TDs. I was going to put LB Josh Mauga here because of his blitzing prowess, but...well, until given a reason to, I just don't fear other teams' blitzes. It's all on Nevada's secondary to make plays...or at least not miss any tackles.

Key Players: Missouri

TE Chase Coffman

I'm putting him here because of what I said during the score projections. Nevada was able to bump Texas Tech's WRs and confuse Graham Harrell into a 19-for-46 performance. Aside from two plays, they held Michael Crabtree in check (unfortunately for the Wolfpack, those two plays went for 50 and 82 yards...ouch). If they choose to give Jeremy Maclin the Crabtree Treatment, they can limit his effectiveness too. Combined with tight, bumping coverage of the other receivers, you'd think Nevada would have a pretty good recipe for physically defending the spread.

Only...Mizzou doesn't mind physical. They'll just throw to Chase Coffman 12 times, and...

RB Derrick Washington

...give Derrick Washington 15-20 carries. Washington is a strong, physical runner, and he and Coffman are the two reasons I just can't really fear any specific defensive strategy.

CB Castine Bridges

S Delstin Garward (Justin Garrett + Del Howard)

Here's what I said about Nevada's passing game back in June:

On non-passing downs, Nevada isn't very aggressive in the passing game--their 0.865 Passing S&P is lower than the national 0.884 and disproportionately lower than a lot of their numbers compared to the national average. However, on passing downs, it appears they go deep...a lot. Their success rate isn't that much higher than normal on passing downs, but when they connect, it's a huge play. Their 0.862 Passing S&P on passing downs has got to be one of the higher numbers in the country.

Two things concern me about this: 1) Mizzou was having Castine Bridges give a massively soft cushion on SEMO WRs last week. Maybe that changes this week, but if not, Nevada's horizontal passing game on non-passing downs could find all sorts of dink-and-dunk success against the Mizzou secondary, namely Bridges. So that's why Bridges is on there.

As for Garrett/Howard...well, if it's a passing down, chances are good that Mizzou's blitzing. And if they're blitzing, chances are good that they're sending William Moore. So that leaves Delstin Garward as the last line of defense...a role not filled very capably against Illinois.

Summary

Nevada is capable of scoring some points, and they've got enough physical guys on defense that they can wear you down if you let them. Their combination of dink-and-dunk prowess on non-passing downs and deep-ball prowess on passing downs has me a bit worried. I think Nevada will put up some yards. But let's go with the Star Factor here.

Nevada's Stars

Colin Kaepernick
Marko Mitchell
Joshua Mauga (potentially)

Missouri's Stars

Chase Daniel
Derrick Washington
Jeremy Maclin (the receiver)
Jeremy Maclin (the kick returner)
Chase Coffman
Colin Brown
Stryker Sulak
Ziggy Hood
Sean Weatherspoon
William Moore
Carl Gettis
Jeff Wolfert

Missouri is giving up too many yards, and I expect that to continue somewhat on Saturday. But they've just got too many playmakers. I think the BTBS projection (41-17) may be just about dead on with this one, but until someone holds Mizzou under 52, I'm going with the trend*.

* Two times = trend, right?

My Prediction: Missouri 52, Nevada 17.

Poll

The BTBS Projection says Mizzou 41, Nevada 17 (which just so happens to be about where the betting line is). I didn't want to more-or-less duplicate a poll at Mizzourah, but...well...

25-point margin = too high. This one's going to be a battle.

27 votes

25-point margin = too low. Nevada simply can't keep up.

61 votes

88 votes | Poll has closed