SB Nation - Marko Mitchell

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 14:30:19 -0000

You had to wait an extra day for it, but you have to wait a day less for the actual game, so that balances out, right?

Image via the Reno Gazette-Journal

Offense

Nevada: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

A BTBS look at the Nevada Offense

Close S&P: 0.802 (National Rank: 52nd)
Close Success Rate: 52.5% (14th)
Close PPP: 0.28 (97th)

Rushing Success Rate: 57.9% (7th)
Rushing PPP: 0.35 (37th)
Rushing S&P: 0.929 (14th)

Passing Success Rate: 43.5% (39th)
Passing PPP: 0.16 (115th)
Passing S&P: 0.592 (102nd)

Standard Downs S&P: 0.942 (37th)
SD Rushing S&P: 0.974 (16th)
SD Passing S&P: 0.324 (96th)

Passing Downs S&P: 0.509 (92nd)
PD Rushing S&P: 0.531 (64th)
PD Passing S&P: 0.506 (97th)

Red Zone S&P: 0.609 (116th)

Q1 S&P: 0.916 (36th)
Q2 S&P: 0.655 (89th)
Q3 S&P: 0.911 (35th)
Q4 S&P: 0.882 (27th)

1st Down S&P: 1.024 (12th)
2nd Down S&P: 0.664 (88th)
3rd Down S&P: 0.678 (77th)

Line Yards/Carry: 3.41 (22nd)
Standard Downs Sack Rate: 7.5% (108th)
Passing Downs Sack Rate: 0.0% (1st)

(Here's your reminder that these are not "+" numbers, meaning they are not adjusted for strength of schedule. It's pretty hard to do that when a team's only played two games. This is important to remember when looking at the UNR defense especially, and in all it's a reminder that these numbers should not be taken 100% at face value. That said, these are per-play measures, so they will still tell you infinitely more than simply "Team A is averaging ___ yards per game," or something like that.)

Even if you don't have a clue about S&P and don't care to have a clue, a quick perusal of these rankings paints a pretty quick, clear picture of Nevada and where it has struggled. We've all heard about how poorly Nevada has played this year, but in reality they've only performed poorly in certain circumstances. In Standard Downs (1st downs, 2nd-and-5 or less, 3rd-and-3 or less), the Wolf Pack rushing attack has been just about as good as it was supposed to be. At least, they've been as efficient as they were supposed to be. It appears that teams are reining them in pretty well, and with a pretty pathetic passing attack, it makes sense why. If defenses don't have to even acknowledge the passing game, they can gang up on the run.

And really, that has been the major issue for Nevada this year. Maybe Colin Kaepernick is trying too hard to make plays, maybe the play-calling has been poor...bottom line is, two games into the season Nevada has no passing threat whatsoever. Getting back home and relaxing a bit (if it's possible to relax in what has become a pretty anti-Ault atmosphere) could help, but at this exact moment they've proven nothing.

Quarterback

Kaepernick's rushing ability, combined with his skill on passing downs, made Nevada's offense a major threat to score at pretty much any moment in 2008. But they didn't score at any moment. Why? Because they weren't the best at staying out of Passing Downs. It doesn't matter how good you are in Passing Downs--your odds are still better in Standard Downs, and the more Passing Downs you face, the more likely you are to fail even if you pull off a few great drive-saving plays. The Standard Downs success must improve.

Colin Kaepernick: 37-for-61 passing, 400 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT, 6.6 yards per pass, 108.0 QB Rating. Also, 17 carries, 63 yards, long: 17.

The Standard Downs success has not improved. That said, it hasn't really regressed either--Nevada's Standard Downs S&P has fallen from 0.966 to 0.942, which is relatively negligible in the end. The problem is, the Passing Downs that were a bit of an issue are a complete and total debacle this year. Their Passing Downs production has fallen 32% thus far, and in 61 overall pass attempts, Kaepernick has thrown one touchdown pass and four interceptions. As Missouri fans learned with Brad Smith, if opponents aren't scared of the pass, they can shadow the run a bit more, and though Kaepernick is still capable of making plays with the defense focused on him, he's simply not going to make as many plays.

Should the Passing Downs struggles be blamed on Kaepernick? The receivers? The coach? I haven't seen a single second of either Nevada game, so obviously I don't know for sure. I do know that Nevada left about 17 points off the board against Notre Dame and blew multiple scoring opportunities, which means that a) they did in fact create scoring opportunities, and b) they (Kaepernick included) shot themselves in the foot eventually. I also know that Kaep's completion percentage has gone up, meaning there might be an issue with receivers not being able to actually make a tackler miss and get downfield. Obviously we'll see tonight what was the cause and the struggles will be sustained now that they're back at home.

Running Back

Few teams in the country are more experienced at running back than the Wolfpack will be in 2009. Vai Taua rushed for 1,521 yards in 2008 (6.4 per carry) as a sophomore, and he will return as the #1 guy. But meanwhile, #2 man Luke Lippincott was recently granted medical hardship year and will return in 2009 having rushed for 1,420 yards in 2007 before being sidelined with a knee injury. They have 633 career carries, pretty good for a 1-2 combination. Then, #3 man Brandon Fragger brings an extra 800 career rushing yards (and 22 receptions) to the table.

Vai Taua: 32 carries, 209 yards, 6.5 per carry, two touchdowns, plus five catches, 42 yards.
Luke Lippincott: 9 carries, 52 yards, 5.8 per carry

Clearly they've been holding up their end of the bargain. Again, Nevada has been relatively efficient in terms of moving the ball on Standard Downs. It's what happens when the RBs are stopped for a short gain that is the problem.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Removing the 115 catches, 1,761 yards, and 12 touchdowns that Marko Mitchell and Mike McCoy brought to the table last year, all that's left is Chris Wellington (42 for 632 and 6 TDs), TE Virgil Green (13 for 136, 1 TD), and Arthur King (10 for 96). The Wolfpack have a lot of hope pinned to redshirt freshman Brandon Wimberley, who had a wonderful year on the scout team and looked good in the spring. If he and Wellington can approximate Mitchell and McCoy, the Nevada passing attack may be good enough to keep defenses from keying on the run.

WR Tray Session (So.): 12 catches, 137 yards, 11.4 per catch.
WR Brandon Wimberly (RSFr.): 9 catches, 140 yards, 15.6 per catch, 1 TD.
WR Chris Wellington (Jr.): 6 catches, 49 yards
TE Virgil Green (Jr.): 6 catches, 37 yards

Aaaaand that's it. Only four WR/TEs have caught passes thus far, suggesting little depth, and only one of the four is averaging more than 11.5 yards per catch, suggesting little explosivness. Again, it's early, and one good game could completely change perceptions (just look at Florida State, described as "on fire" on an ESPN commercial this morning, when seven days ago they were on the ropes after almost losing to Jacksonville State...perceptions change in milliseconds), but for now this unit has done nothing to alleviate the major concern for this offense heading into 2009, which was that nobody would be able to replace Marko Mitchell as the go-to, big-play threat. Wimberly may be well on his way, but it's still early in his first season on the field. An even bigger problem, though, is apparently depth.

Offensive Line

For [Mizzou] to hold Taua and Fragger to just 76 yards on 20 carries was extremely impressive, as was Mizzou's holding the overall UNR attack to just a 0.713 S&P. Unfortunately for Mizzou, their own defensive line is a lot less experienced in 2009, while Nevada's offensive line should be as good or better. Their 62 returning career starts rank them third in the WAC, and they've got 2-3 all-conference candidates in Alonzo Durham, Mike Gallett, and gigantic John Bender. We're all high on the threesome of Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter; well, Durham and Gallett will make up one of the better pairs of tackles Mizzou will face this year.

The O-line appears to be holding up its end of the bargain, at least to an extent. With a running quarterback, it's impossible to glean much from Sack Rates. Have they protected Kaepernick really well on Passing Downs (leading to 0 sacks), or is Kaepernick either evading the rush or making throws too quickly? Are defenders backing off and trying to contain Kaepernick instead of coming straight at him? Is an awful Standard Downs sack rate the sign of poor protection, or is Kaepernick staying in the pocket far too long, looking to make a play? The OL has done well in run-blocking, and I thought they'd be pretty good heading into the season, so I'm going to assume that they've at least been decent in the first two games. Either way, I'm a lot more comfortable with Missouri's defensive line and a little less sold on Nevada's offensive line. At worst, I think this matchup ends up being a draw.

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Defense

Nevada: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

A BTBS look at the Nevada Defense

Close S&P: 1.066 (117th)
Close Success Rate: 52.4% (116th)
Close PPP: 0.54 (118th)

Rushing Success Rate: 53.3% (111th)
Rushing PPP: 0.30 (80th)
Rushing S&P: 0.830 (106th)

Passing Success Rate: 51.4% (114th)
Passing PPP: 0.84 (119th)
Passing S&P: 1.353 (120th)

Standard Downs S&P: 0.969 (108th)
SD Rushing S&P: 0.839 (95th)
SD Passing S&P: 1.244 (114th)

Passing Downs S&P: 1.011 (117th)
PD Rushing S&P: 0.531 (69th)
PD Passing S&P: 1.672 (120th)

Red Zone S&P: 1.537 (119th)

Q1 S&P: 1.028 (115th)
Q2 S&P: 1.002 (107th)
Q3 S&P: 1.033 (112th)
Q4 S&P: 0.862 (97th)

1st Down S&P: 1.010 (115th)
2nd Down S&P: 0.993 (111th)
3rd Down S&P: 0.924 (106th)

Line Yards/Carry: 2.95 (78th)
Standard Downs Sack Rate: 3.7% (71st)
Passing Downs Sack Rate: 6.3% (71st)

Oy. Nevada's best ranking anywhere on this list is 71st. Now...again...Notre Dame has a very good offense (or at least they did before Michael Floyd went down--we'll see now), so a strength-of-schedule adjustment will help the Pack here. But still. There's bad, and there's bad, and I think Nevada's going to get the italicization treatment.

One other disclaimer: Nevada's only played two games, so the two long passes to Michael Floyd of 70 and 88 yards could be, by themselves, skewing these numbers. But being that we thought the secondary would be a concern heading into the season, and being that Missouri's WR corps has looked quite good for 2.5 games this year (they didn't in the first half against Bowling Green), this is still obviously a positive sign for Mizzou.

Defensive Line

To say the defensive line is the strength of the Nevada defense is a major understatement. As sophomores, ends Kevin Basped and Dontay Mach combined for 36 tackles for loss and 21.5 sacks last year. They both return, as do backups Daniel Agaiava and Ryan Coulson, who combined for another three TFLs in limited time. Now, it should be noted that Nevada registered no sacks on Chase Daniel last year, not even a QB hurry. Basped did manage 1.5 TFLs, but Chase Daniel was not touched all game, and while Daniel and his senior pocket presence are gone in 2009, the Mizzou offensive line should be as good or better.

Kevin Basped: 2.5 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack, 1 pass break-up
Dontay Mach: 9.5 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 QB hurry

Mach's held up his end of the bargain, but Basped has been underwhelming so far. Tackles Nate Agaiava and Zack Madonick have been serviceable, combining for 7.0 tackles and 2.0 TFL. In all, though, Nevada mas managed just two sacks in two games. It's no wonder the Wolf Pack is apparently considering sending the house at Gabbert instead of dropping seven into coverage like Bowling Green--they probably can't get in Gabbert's face without doing so.

Linebackers

Gone is rock solid Jonathan Mauga, and into the starting lineup (probably) move Brandon Marshall (8.5 of 33 tackles went for loss, another high %) and big Mike Bethea. Looking at the stats, you pretty quickly see that Nevada's LBs play quite close to the line of scrimmage, which is great for defending the run...and not so much defending the pass. It puts a lot of pressure on the secondary, and in 2008, the secondary didn't respond too well. What about 2009?

Mike Bethea: 12.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 sack
James-Michael Johnson: 11.5 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 QB hurry
Brandon Marshall: 8.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 pass break-ups

If there has been a strength on this defense, then the LBs would probably be it. They are making plays just like they did last year. Again, though, a) Nevada has managed just two sacks, and b) the secondary has been repeatedly roasted.

In all, if there's a bright spot to Nevada's defense, it's that they've racked up 13.5 tackles for loss, mostly against the run. If Derrick Washington isn't running well, and they can stop him in the backfield enough, Missouri will be forced into Passing Downs. In Blaine Gabbert's first true road game as a starter, Missouri wants to avoid Passing Downs at all costs.

Secondary

The good news for Nevada is, their safeties are ball hawks. Jonathon Amaya had four picks in 2008, and Mo Harvey added three from a backup role. The bad news is, as I've already repeatedly mentioned, when they didn't make the big play, they were giving up one. Amaya and #1 CB Antoine Thompson are both seniors, as are Harvey and likely backup CB Cameron Bayne. There is experience here, but pressure will be on sophomore Isaiah Frey and a batch of redshirt freshmen trying to break their way into the rotation. Nevada clearly wants to attack with their front seven, meaning they need skill, smarts and speed from the secondary (but really, who doesn't?). Their smarts will improve with experience, but...speed? They apparently need some.

I was going to put some individual stats here, but...it's nothing good. Nevada has intercepted zero passes and broken up only five (the secondary accounts for only two of them). They're giving up 12.7 yards per pass, which is insanely high. Take away Floyd's two bombs, and the average is 9.3, which is still terrible. How terrible? SMU was worst in the country in this category last year...and they gave up just 9.0 per pass. Bad. REALLY, REALLY bad.

In all, Nevada's only hope is what I mentioned above--stopping the run enough to force Mizzou into Passing Downs and hope for some bad decisions from Gabbert. Having witnessed the first half of the Bowling Green game, I know that that strategy holds at least a small chance of working, but...eesh. That secondary is just terrible.

Special Teams

Brad Langley's a decent punter, but they don't return a dangerous return man (though one might materialize, I guess), and they'll feature a new kicker, who might or might not be good (you never really know in advance). In a game full of interesting matchups--Nevada seemingly having the advantage on the ground, Missouri in the air--things could swing on special teams play, and neither unit has a distinct advantage here.

Punt Returns Rank: 58th
Net Punting Rank: 44th
Kickoff Returns Rank: 33rd
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 112th

Field Goals: 0-for-1
PATs: 0-for-1

So...Mike Ball (five returns, 32.8 average) is a pretty good kickoff returner. That is at least a bit of a concern since Missouri is only 82nd in the country in Opponents' Kickoff Returns. Other than that? Um, not very good stuff from Nevada here. And yes, Nevada has attempted only one PAT in two games (they went for two on their other two TDs versus Colorado State)...and they missed it. It's been a comedy of errors for Chris Ault's Wolf Pack so far this year.

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Three Keys to the Game

Circumstances

We discussed this on Saturday's podcast. Looking at statistics, results, recruiting rankings, previous head-to-head matchups, whatever you like--it's pretty clear that Missouri is and has been a better football team than Nevada. But that won't really matter tonight if Missouri is overtaken by circumstance. You've got a young quarterback making his first out-of-state start (and for that matter, you've got a team with almost 30 frosh/sophs on the two-deep playing really far away from home for the first time). You've got altitude. You've got a team that has gone from simply being motivated by revenge against Missouri to being motivated by a desperate need to make something (anything) positive happen. You've got a two-timezone trip west. All of these things are working in Nevada's favor.

And that's all that's working in Nevada's favor at the moment. Missouri is a solid passing team playing against a god-awful pass defense. Their biggest concerns on defense (secondary) are neutralized by Nevada's biggest concern on offense (passing). Nevada's whole program is on the verge of being turned on by its fanbase. You get the feeling that if Missouri actually starts strong for once, this one will be in the bag by the second quarter. But Missouri isn't a strong-starting team. And they haven't encountered a situation like this before, at least much of the current personnel hasn't. Get past the circumstances of the moment, and Missouri wins the game. Easier said than done.

Passing Downs

I mentioned this above. Nevada wins this game by forcing Blaine Gabbert into making mistakes he hasn't made yet. Those will almost certainly come in Passing Downs. Minimize the number of Passing Downs Gabbert faces, and you minimize the risk of mistakes. That means a) good running, especially early in the game, b) no drops, and c) no penalties. You want the Nevada crowd to get into the game, and the Nevada team to get its confidence back? Face a lot of 3rd-and-9's and see what happens. Again, Missouri is the better overall team here, but this is still a dangerous game because of what Missouri could do to Missouri.

Tackling

Tackle well, shadow Kaepernick, don't give up big gains, and you give your young offense more margin for error. Nevada's big-play potential just hasn't made an appearance yet this year, and they might need Missouri's help in breaking out.

Really, all three of these keys are tied with two themes: brains and fundamentals. Don't lose your heads, don't make silly mistakes, and you probably win this game. Or at least you force Nevada to play really well to win, and they haven't done that since early-November of last year.

Prediction

I'm more nervous about what Missouri is going to do in this game than Nevada. We've seen this situation a thousand times in college football--the underdog home team is desperate for a breakthrough win, and they probably need some help from the favored road team to get it done. But if the favorite does them some favors early, then confidence and momentum can lead the underdog to a win. It annoys me because if Missouri does lose this game, I know we'll see the Tim Griffin's of the world immediately breaking out the "Same Old Missouri" talk, when really a) Missouri has had about one true letdown game (Iowa State 2006) in the last 4+ seasons (I don't count OSU and KU of last year because they were both solid teams, and I don't count New Mexico in 2005 because...well, I'm pretty sure UNM was actually better than Missouri in 2005), and b) every team in the country has had at least one letdown game in that time. Old perceptions die hard, I guess, but if Missouri loses this one, it won't so much be "same old Missouri" as "team that's simply too young not to face some setbacks." At least, that's the situation in my own opinion.

The numbers say Missouri by 5.6 points in this one. Honestly, I don't see that happening. I either see Missouri winning big (17+), or Nevada winning a tight one. But I am made the fool when I go against the stats, so we'll say Missouri wins 34-28 in this one.

Nevada at Notre Dame Preview: Don't Turn Your Back On The Wolf Pack

CW — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 13:00:20 -0000

I was chatting with my dad on the drive home from work earlier in the week and we started talking about the upcoming football season. I was telling him how I can't imagine the Irish going 3-0 because that would make me too happy and the pitfalls were too varied to avoid tripping up once.

"Who do you start with again?"

"Nevada, at Michigan and Michigan State."

There was a pause from my dad, who was always a big Penn State/Big Ten fan before I started attending Notre Dame.

"You're not worried about losing to Nevada, are you?"

I couldn't express to him how much I was concerned about losing to Nevada. Or how a 14.5 point line seems a bit too high (at least half a point too high, Vegas is certainly not being generous, so they're just taking advantage of Irish fans who would trust this team to cover that.) Or how poorly Notre Dame played last year against a horrid San Diego State team that would get its skull crushed in by the Wolf Pack. Or for as well as Notre Dame played against Hawaii (a team that Nevada lost to last year, for what is worth), they still put together a pretty miserable November, and yes, as excited as I am for this season, this is not an easy notch in the ol' win column (not that such a thing exists for the Irish at this point).

Let us go over the two biggest reasons for my concern. The first is a 6' 6" genetically-engineered, football-playing gazelle who lines up at quarterback in the pistol formation. Junior Colin Kaepernick, reigning WAC Offensive Player of the Year and Chicago Cubs draft pick, burst onto the national scene his freshman season during a Sunday night game against the Broncos of Boise State. Despite it being his first collegiate start, Kaepernick went blow for blow with Ian Johnson and company, finally falling in the fourth overtime 69-67 in one of the most ridiculously enjoyable games you could ever watch. Kaepernick has not slowed down since that opening performance where he tossed three touchdowns (to no interceptions) and ran for two more, and he - depending on the health of Jake Locker and the situation at Southern Cal - will most likely be the best quarterback the Irish face all season.

Kaepernick is scary anecdotally and mathematically. Just do some cruising on YouTube - I will do it for you, here and here and here - and then put your nerdz cap on and take a gander at this:

Colin Kaepernick was far and away the most effective rushing quarterback in 2008. Combined with a strong backfield mate in Vai Taua (17th among RBs in POE) and the best play-fake this writer has ever seen, Kaepernick has some dangerous weapons at his disposal in 2009. If Nevada can find a decent receiver to replace the steady Marko Mitchell, the Wolf Pack could be scary.

Isn't that nice? Speaking of Vai Taua, he rushed for 1,521 yards last year, and he has pretty steep competition for best back on the team from Luke Lippincott. Lippincott was the WAC leading rusher in 2007 with 1,420 yards and 18 total touchdowns before missing the majority of last season with a knee injury. If the Irish frontline isn't ready for a steady dose of Kaepernick left, Taua right and Lippincott up the middle, it's going to be a long day in South Bend for Tenuta's boys. Notre Dame gets to see the option every year with the Midshipmen, but Chris Ault's read option is a slightly different beast.

On the other side of the ball, Nevada brings back the only double-digit sack tandem in the nation in Dontay Moch (11.5) and Kevin Basped (10). The Nevada coaching staff plans on rotating in a lot of guys to keep their studs fresh, but we know who the best two are because they've got the sweet nickname:

That and the give-and-take the Bash Brothers, the duo's self-appointed nickname, give each other during games.

"If one of us gets a sack, we'll go, 'Hey, it's your turn now,'" Moch said. "We do compete a little, because I want that top notch at the end of the year."

Granted, you get a lot of sack opportunities when the other team is throwing on your every play (more on that in just a moment), but Moch and Basped took advantage of those opportunities. Anchoring the defensive backfield and causing problems for Jimmy if he decides to bust out the sex cannon instead of throwing it to open receivers is Jonathon Amaya, who was the leading tackler for the Wolf Pack last year in addition to collecting four picks and six pass break-ups.

Holding everything together is middle linebacker Mike Bethea, who will share traffic control duties on defense with Amaya. Bethea is a junior college transfer that played outside linebacker last year but has moved inside with the departure of Joshua Mauga, who was just waived by the Jets. We keep hearing about the massive experience on the offensive line, so this will be a great early test for the Young/Duncan combination. It is important that the Irish protect Jimmy, because good Lord almighty, the Nevada pass defense is atrocious. Matt went over how bad the Wolf Pack was against the pass last year earlier in the week, but I think it is really worth looking at again, because these numbers are not great:

Pass Attempts Against Per Game- 38.9 (5th most in the nation)

Pass Completions Against Per Game- 20.8 (18th most in the nation)

Completion % Against- 53.56 (24th BEST in the nation)

Yards Per Completion- 14.95 (Worst in the nation)

Yards Per Attempt- 8.01 (12th worst in the nation)

Passing TDs Against- 31 (7th worst in the nation)

Passing Yards Per Game Against- 311.62 (Worst in the nation)

Plays defended per game- 67.9 (68th most in the nation)

% of plays defended that are rushing- 42.7% (2nd lowest in the nation)

% of plays defended that are passing- 57.3% (2nd highest in the nation)

Pass Eff. Defense- 134.74 (85th in the nation)

% of Attempts Picked Off- 3.16% (59th in the nation)

% of Opponents Dropbacks that ended in a sack- 6.81% (42nd in the nation)

While I know there may be some segments of the fanbase who won't consider this game a success unless we rush thirty-plus times, I think the basic game plan should revolve around getting Jimmy some protection and then running Golden and Michael past Nevada's defensive backs and throwing to them. If you want to mix in some screens, or the occasional power I or maybe some nice tosses to Kyle Rudolph, fine, but I think Weis should just go with the BYU 2005 gameplan until the Wolf Pack proves they can stop the passing attack.

On defense, the Irish are going to have to focus on corralling young Mr. Kaepernick, the first elite-type mobile quarterback they've faced in a couple years. Minter's defense had no idea how to cope with a quarterback that could run and throw, and the Tenuta/Brown combination hasn't really been tested yet. If I had to predict, I would think that all the speed and athleticism would cause this Irish defense to match up well, but we're not going to know until the play-actioning and mad-cap quarterback scrambles/sprints-to-the-endzone start.

When you look at the results from the Wolf Pack's games last season, you can see why Notre Dame is a pretty healthy two touchdown favorite, but if the Irish stall coming out of the gate (which happened quite frequently last season), it wouldn't be surprising to see them get into a quick hole, because while they have their issues, the Wolf Pack can straight-up score. I just keep seeing a hectic Kaepernick touchdown run, followed by a pick six on the ensuing drive and a stunned Notre Dame Stadium crowd staring at a 14-0 hole and a "We can do this!" Nevada sideline. This Irish team has the talent to play with anyone, but the opening game against the Wolf Pack will be a very solid first test to see if they have the execution.

I hate doing keys to the game, because they're always just variations on the same half dozen things, but if Jimmy just keeps his cool and takes what the Nevada secondary is giving him(because unless things drastically changed, it should be like Christmas morning downfield), I think the Irish stroll into Ann Arbor 1-0. This is going to be a fun shootout and a great first game for Charlie Weis' 2009 make-or-break season, but in no way is it a gimme.

Mizzou Links, 8-24-09

Bill C. — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 10:44:04 -0000

Weekend Practice Reports!

The Trib: Saturday Practice Report
Wide receiver T.J. Moe took turns returning punts today. The job is cornerback Carl Gettis' for now, Pinkel has said. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Moe get more looks there as the season continues.
PowerMizzou: Practice Report: Two weeks to go
Mutigers.com: Saturday Tiger Training Camp Report
The number one defense next went up against the number two offense in the same scenario. After allowing one first down to near midfield, the defense stiffened and created a 4th-and-9 situation, as good pass coverage and a strong pass rush from DE Brian Coulter forced an incompletion on 3rd down. But on 4th down, WR Rolandis Woodland got behind coverage and QB Jimmy Costello lofted a perfect pass that Woodland caught in stride inside the 10-yardline, and he took it the rest of the way for what amounted to a 51-yard score.
The Missourian: Blaine Gabbert's arm strength opens up Missouri offense
The Trib: BTS Video: Pinkel on Friday's practice

Boise State 2009 opponent preview: Nevada

Kevan Lee — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 20:39:11 -0000

Projected Record: 7-5 overall, 5-3 conference
At-a-glance: Nevada is a darkhorse for being a BCS buster this season. Really? Are we talking about the same Nevada? A spotty defense, suspect special teams, and the crushing reality of being Nevada will sink the Wolf Pack. Until Nevada proves consistent as a team, there's no reason to pick them anywhere else than the middle tier of the WAC.

We've come to the opponent preview where I finally stop belittling fellow WAC teams. Or do I?

Common sense would have me shaking in my Marty Tadman jersey at this year's rendition of the Pack. Kaepernick, Moch, Basped? Oh my! But then again, weren't all those guys on the team last year? Wasn't the Boise State - Nevada game two pick-sixes away from a yawner? Aren't I humanly incapable of showing respect for another conference team?

Yes to all those questions. And no to Nevada knocking the Broncos off their WAC pedestal this season.

Wins in 2008:	7
Pythagorean Wins in 2008:	7.3
Translation:	Nevada was pretty much only seven-wins good
Returning starters:	Offense: 7, Defense:7
Strength of Schedule:	94
Recruiting ranking 2005-2009:	106, 82, 105, 109, 108 (nat'l ranking from Scout.com)
WAC recruiting ranking 2005-2009:	7, 3, 7, 6, 7

Five Questions

Is the Wolf Pack the new archenemy of Boise State?

It is beginning to look that way. Certainly, they have been more competitive in recent years than Idaho or Fresno State, although the Vandals will always hold a special place (meant reverentially and retardedly) in the hearts of Bronco fans. Hawaii was fun for awhile. SJSU is fun for about a week every year. But Nevada has really taken the mantle of most loathsome team on the conference calendar.

Certainly, they are the ones most likely to give the Broncos a run for their money. Speaking of running, anyone else think Colin Kaepernick looks like a robot ostrich?

Why should I think that Nevada's secondary is going to be any different this year?

Well last year, the Pack was private-Methodist-school-intramurals terrible at defending the pass, to the tune of No. 120 (dead last) in the NCAA and 320 yards per game.

Enter ... nobody.

Chris Ault promises that defense will be a priority starting now. Yes, he's been coaching 24 years. But when you witness an apocalypse like Nevada's pass D in 2008, you're liable to try a bunch of things you previously thought were pointless. Nevada has the players to put pressure on the quarterbacks, so if they can find a handful of players who can stay in the general vicinity of wide receivers, you'd have to think they can improve on last year's result. If not, expect Ault to break with tradition again and start recruiting defensive players.

Since passing isn't Kaepernick's specialty, what's stopping the Wolf Pack from running the ball on every down?

Nothing really. They have the reigning WAC leading rusher in Vai Taua. They have the former reigning WAC leading rusher in Luke Lippincott. They have three linemen returning from last year's 290 yards-per-game offense. By the looks of things, this Nevada team could win half of its WAC games without even putting the ball in the air. They are basically a service academy, minus America respecting them.

Another reason to keep it on the ground is the loss of leading receivers Marko Mitchell and Mike McCoy. The wide receivers for UNR are rather green. Junior Chris Wellington is the most well-known holdover, and he managed 632 and six TDs last season. Kaepernick can make plays happen with his feet, but someone is going to have to be able to catch the long bombs and close range missiles he fires willy-nilly on the move. That is, if Ault even bothers calling a passing play.

Boise State's been amped about the Oregon game since January. Is the same true for UNR and Notre Dame?

Since I don't live in Reno (thank GOODNESS), I can't say for sure, but I've heard that Pack fans have extremely high hopes for this Notre Dame showdown. Are Nevada fans expecting a win? Many of them are. At the very least, they are expecting Kaepernick to really make an impression on the national television audience and Tom Hammond. It's not a make-or-break game for Nevada, but if they get past Notre Dame, they'll be getting a lot of attention in the coming weeks.

What is the Achille's heel of Nevada?

Well besides pass defense, WR depth, and the innate ability to lose at least one game they should win, the Wolf Pack are not very good on special teams. Phil Steele ranked Nevada No. 112, 99, 71, 99, and 94 over the past five years, and with the Wolf Pack losing kicker Brett Jaekle, special teams could be another adventure in 2009. Especially if the Pack recruited this kid:

Schedule around the Boise State game

11/14 Fresno State
11/21 @ NMSU
11/27 @ Boise State
End of Season

By the Numbers

190 - difference between Nevada's average rush yards and that of their opponents
7-0 - Nevada's record when holding teams under 35 points
0-6 - Nevada's record when teams score more than 35 points

I've had a lot of fun with this preview, but now it's time to get serious. My feelings about the Nevada Wolf Pack are probably a lot more tempered than those that you would find a lot of other places. People are gushing over Nevada's skill players, and with good reason. The Wolf Pack is a good team with a playmaking quarterback and strong running backs who will succeed behind a talented offensive line. Plus, their defense has a smattering of studs, and they are coached by a Hall of Famer.

On top of all this, the prospect of facing the Wolf Pack on the football field frightens me a little. Even after witnessing the Broncos completely shut down the UNR offense for three quarters last season, I don't look forward to a more experienced Kaepernick and a well-oiled machine of an offense rolling into Boise in November.

To be sure, Nevada is gunning for the Broncos. And if I were writing a preview of the Nevada-Boise State game right now, I would be significantly more respectful and fearful.

But Nevada from a season-long perspective scares me a lot less than Nevada from a game-by-game perspective.

The perfect storm of offensive prowess and defensive okayness could come together for Nevada on any given week, but it won't come together for them on every given week. The pass defense is too bad to be consistent, even if they are improved over last year's simply horrendous unit. The special teams are capable of causing multiple losses on the year. Defenses will copy Boise State's blueprint for success against the Pistol, and the teams with good enough athletes will be able to shut that machine down.

Nevada could very well give the Broncos a run for their money in the de facto WAC championship in late November. However, I'd be surprised if the WAC championship hadn't already been decided.

Nevada is scary in small doses, but until they prove that they can string together a season of consistency, domination, and solid play on both sides of the ball, they are still Nevada - old, undependable, 7-5 Nevada.

Perfect Situation
Nevada turns into 2009's BCS buster by sweeping Notre Dame and Mizzou in nonconference, steamrolling the WAC on their way to a BCS bowl, and making life a living hell for Bronco fans

Reality
Nevada plays tough against Notre Dame and Missouri, loses both, drops one or two conference games before the BSU showdown, loses that one, goes to the New Mexico Bowl

Final Record
7-5 overall, 5-3 conference

Previous previews of 2009 opponents: Oregon. Miami (Ohio). Bowling Green. UC Davis. Tulsa. San Jose State. Utah State. Fresno State. NMSU. Hawaii. LaTech. Last one (appropriately): Idaho.

Crossfire: Nevada Q&A

RPT — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 16:50:54 -0000

As Nevada Week rolls on, we now step outside the RMN family for a better look at what to expect from the Wolf Pack in 2009. Today, we turn to A.W. Prince, writer and publisher of Silver and Blue Sports, who took the time to answer a few questions for us. Big thanks are in order to A.W. and the entire Silver and Blue Sports community for the solid cross-site discussion in preparation for this season's Mizzou/Nevada game.

RMN: If you don't mind, describe the pulse of the Nevada fan base right now and give us a brief look at any expectations surrounding Nevada in 2009.

A.W.: Like any program before the start of the season, there is certainly a lot of excitement regarding Nevada football this year. The Notre Dame game, and a trip to South Bend, has energized the entire fan base, plus recruits for the past two years since it was announced. That game, plus the home game with a Big 12 power like Missouri, is a big deal for Nevada football and their fans. They are very excited about both of those games, plus the WAC schedule, as well as welcoming UNLV to Reno in their rudest way possible. The Notre Dame game has all the spotlight though. As a program, I'd say that want that win like no other, and most notably because it is the first game of the season for the Wolf Pack. That's not to shy away from how important the Missouri game is, but the focus is on Notre Dame for Nevada fans.

So I would have to say on a scale of 1 to 10 how high the fan interest is in Nevada football right now, I'd put it at an 1000. In fact, I doubt it has ever been higher.

RMN: It's no secret that Missouri lost a lot of offense. How is the Nevada defense shaping up and is a strong enough to dramatically reduce the number of points given up to Missouri this year?

A.W.: The Nevada defense continues to evolve. It is easy to look at the stats from a year ago and see that Nevada allowed 311 passing yards per game, which ranked dead last in the country. In fact, they were the only program in the country to give up more than 300+. Scoring defense was not that good either, ranking No. 99 at more than 32 points per game. That's the bad news.

The good news is that Nevada finished No. 6 in rush defense, No. 8 in tackles for loss and No. 10 nationally in sacks. And when you combine the fact that Nevada rushed for the third most yards in the NCAA last year, they pretty much controlled the line of scrimmage last year. The Wolf Pack have two excellent NFL caliber D-Ends in Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch, who combine to be two of the fastest 4 players on the entire roster. They combined for 21.5 sacks a year ago as true sophomores, and they are legit all-around players. I think what Missouri fans saw last year from Nevada on defense was really the exception; they did not see a team that had it all together that day for whatever reason.

In fact, just look at the scores from last year and you'll see that's the only game Nevada was blown out in.

A lot of the pass defense issues have also been addressed. Two years ago, the Wolf Pack brought in 5 frosh DB's, and only one played last year. With the addition of three more this year, including a quality JC cover corner, plus the energy they have as a group, there is a determination in that group to take this thing from worst-to-first. And as most fans know, statistics are going to be based on who you play, and Nevada dealt with a schedule filled with some extremely great passing offenses. Just looking at the passing offense numbers from a year ago, Texas Tech finished No. 1, Missouri finished No. 4, New Mexico State finished No. 10 and Boise State finished No. 13. Nevada lost all 4 of those games last year, and with the exception of that flawless performance put on by Missouri, everyone was extremely close.

Nevada went 7-2 against everyone else.

More from A.W. after the jump...

RMN: I know Nevada loses Marko Mitchell, but the attack seems to still be as potent as ever. How high are expectations for this offensive unit? Does the return of Lippincott mean much, or did Vai Taua's emergence minimize his importance?

A.W.: Nevada head coach Chris Ault is an offensive coach, and one of the most innovative minds in the game. Every year he tinkers with the Pistol Offense, adding a new component here and there. He's lost some powerful offensive players over the past, but like other great coaches, he just reloads. Nevada has a stable of young receivers, with the four best coming out of spring being juniors Chris Wellington and Malcolm Shepherd, plus freshmen Brandon Wimberly and L.J. Washington. Losing Marko will hurt due to his experience, but overall this is a WR core that is much deeper.

As far as the rushing attack, it would be hard to describe how much talent Nevada has back there. Honestly, I've covered the Pac-10 for years, and only USC in 2005 and Cal in 2004 would rank up there in production with the Wolf Pack ground game. Lippincott and Taua are ferocious "Nevada Backs", warriors in a lot of ways. Combined, they have rushed for over 3,500 yards and 41 TD's in their careers, and considering Lippincott was a converted safety and Taua is only a junior, that's saying something. Missouri knows all about Colin Kaepernick; he's a deer and he'll gallop all over the place. That's just three of the horses; Nevada has the very impressive freshman Michael Ball, speedy senior Brandon Fragger, plus lightning quick sophomore Lampford Mark and junior workhorse Courtney Gardner.

Even without Lippincott, who went down for the season against Texas Tech, and Fragger, who went down against Missouri, Nevada became the first non-BCS program to ever rush for over 6.0 yards per carry over the course of a season.

RMN: Give us the name of one player Missouri fans and national media don't know about who could play a significant role in determining Nevada's success in 2009.

A.W.: I'd have to say Dontay Moch. I mentioned him earlier along with Basped, but Missouri didn't see what he could do whatsoever last year. I don't believe he registered a single tackle in last year's game, and this is a guy who can dominate the line of scrimmage. He's essentially the James Harrison of Nevada's defense.

RMN: How much do you believe "intangible" factors will affect the Missouri/Nevada game? Do you think Nevada's players buy into a "revenge" factor and/or the "Friday night national television" factor?

A.W.: I don't think the night of the game matters as much, but certainly Nevada has a lot of pride as a program. They were shut down pretty much on National TV by Missouri, and blasted by the Tigers. Again, that was the only time it happened all year long. So I think that'll be motivation for the Pack.

Additionally, I'd compare the game to what Texas Tech ran into last year. It was a very tough game for the Red Raiders, who obviously had a heck of a season. Nevada held Harrell to just 19 completions all game, and they truly controlled that game. It was a tough environment for them to get anything going.

RMN: Finish the following statements:

-- Mizzou will win if: They control the line of scrimmage like they did a year ago, and score three rushing touchdowns. They did that a year ago, as did Texas Tech and Maryland, and Nevada went 0-3 in those games.

-- Nevada will win if: They score in the red zone effectively and post 40 points; I can see Nevada winning with 40 on the Tigers.

RMN: And finally, give us your score prediction for the game.

-- You might hate me for this, but I got out of the prediction business a long time ago...so that's a no-go from me. I let the fans project and predict games. My bottom line is that you won't find two classier head coaches than Coach Ault and Coach Pinkel, and it'll be a treat to cover the game. As a person who really enjoyed living in Missouri for a short time, I just want to say thanks to all the Tiger fans for coming to Reno for the game! Ya'll will have a good time.

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 14:00:19 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

After four games in 2009, Missouri could be 4-0, and they could be 2-2 (or, technically, worse). While Illinois is clearly the biggest name on the non-conference slate, the most interestingly challenging opponent will likely be Nevada. Never mind that it's a road game, far away, on a Friday night. And never mind how hypnotically good Colin Kaepernick looks for a handful of plays each game. Football is about matchups, and Nevada appears to match up quite well with a Missouri team full of different strengths and weaknesses than last year's squad. Let's take a look.

The best running QB in college football.

2008

Record: 7-6 (5-3 in WAC)
S&P+: 215.11 (#36)
Scoring Margin: 489-420 (+69)
Conference Scoring Margin: 320-234 (+86)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): Fresno State (#61), Louisiana Tech (#86), UNLV (#88), Utah State (#99), San Jose State (#101), Idaho (#119), Grambling State (N/A)
Losses: Boise State (#7), Missouri (#10), Texas Tech (#15), Maryland (#52), Hawaii (#53), New Mexico State (#111)

So...how good was Nevada in 2008? They played Texas Tech tough in Reno, and they almost completed a dramatic comeback in falling short to Boise State by a touchdown. They made mincemeat of a series of bad teams, and they looked alright against Maryland...

...but they didn't actually beat anybody good. Yes, Fresno State and Louisiana Tech were both bowl teams, and UNLV beat Arizona State, but none of those teams were in the upper half of the final S&P+ rankings. They ended up 2-4 versus teams with winning records and 5-2 versus teams that finished .500 or worse. And...New Mexico State? Really? At home? This was a team with star power in Colin Kaepernick and, to a lesser extent, Vai Taua and Marko Mitchell, and pretty strong lineplay as well; but the back seven--the LBs and DBs--let this team down considerably. For that matter, so did only recovering 15 of 46 fumbles. Luck could be on their side in 2009, but experienced defenders need to bring it.

Coaching

Head Coach: Chris Ault
Record at Nevada: 198-90-1
Pythagorean Record Since 2004: +0.29 wins (+0.6/year)

Mr. Nevada

I like the first line of Chris Ault's NevadaWolfpack.com bio: "Simply put, Chris Ault is University of Nevada football." In 24 seasons as coach of the Wolfpack (over three stints), Ault has managed 198 wins and a .687 win percentage. In the last 24 seasons of Nevada football without Ault leading the way (1961-75, 1993, 1996-2003), they've managed 116 wins and a .470 win percentage. If Kansas State fans want hope for the second Bill Snyder Administration, look to Ault's time in Reno (and not John Robinson's time at USC and UNLV, or Bill Walsh's second stay in Palo Alto).

Nevada has been to four straight bowls, and while they haven't beaten many big-name opponents (UNR hasn't actually beaten a BCS-conference team finishing with a winning record since their move to 1-A in 1992--really, a blemish on Ault's record), they win. And there's absolutely no question that Ault will have his boys ready to rock and roll on a Friday night, especially against a team that beat them by 52 points last year. It offers the perfect "hornet's nest" type of situation, in which a young BCS-conference team is ambushed by an experienced, angry non-BCS host.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+*: 113.3 (#30)
Success Rate+: 105.6 (#47)
PPP+: 123.6 (#22)

Standard Downs** S&P+: 107.8 (#44)
Passing Downs S&P+: 122.3 (#23)

Redzone S&P+: 112.8 (#33)

Q1 S&P+: 107.1 (#53)
Q2 S&P+: 107.6 (#49)
Q3 S&P+: 115.7 (#26)
Q4 S&P+: 117.8 (#22)

1st Down S&P+: 113.6 (#30)
2nd Down S&P+: 98.1 (#70)
3rd Down S&P+: 125.6 (#16)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 127.6 (#8)
Rushing SR+: 112.5 (#28)
Rushing PPP+: 150.76 (#6)

Standard Downs: 120.5 (#12)
Passing Downs: 133.2 (#20)

Redzone: 124.32 (#20)

Line Yards+: 116.3 (#15)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 99.6 (#63)
Passing SR+: 97.1 (#69)
Passing PPP+: 103.4 (#57)

Standard Downs: 90.7 (#87)
Passing Downs: 120.6 (#27)

Redzone: 92.9 (#73)

Adj. Sack Rate***: 4.4% (#30)

* The general S&P+ stat used is really the "Close-Game S&P+" stat you know and love. The definition of "close game" has been expanded (Close game = within 24 points in Q1, 21 in Q2, and 16 or less, i.e. two possessions, in the second half). So what that means is that junk time yards/points are not included in these numbers, nor should they be.

** "Standard Downs" = what used to be "Non-Passing Downs". Passing Downs are defined as follows: Second-and-8 or more, third-and-5 or more, fourth-and-5 or more. Anything less than that—any first down, second-and-7 or less, third-and-4 or less, fourth-and-4 or less—are considered Standard Downs because running and passing are more-or-less equal options.

*** Adjusted Sack Rate is a new creation. It simply looks at the average of the Standard Downs and Passing Downs sack rates. As you'll see, combined with Line Yards+, this will give you a pretty good read of O-line performance.

As you would figure from the stereotypical good running team that plays 4,500 feet above sea level, the 'Pack improved offensively as the game wore on, getting better in each progressive quarter. Overall, they hovered around 50th in the country in the first half, and about 24th in the second. They were solid in the red zone, solid on first downs, and great on third downs with the Kaepernick rushing threat, but they did have some distinct weaknesses. Marko Mitchell was a good WR, but the numbers suggest that Nevada's passing game didn't scare many people.

If the Wolfpack are going to become a team with "BCS buster" potential in 2009, Kaepernick has to find a good weapon to keep defenses honest in non-passing situations. Yes, he's great outside the pocket, and Nevada had some nice Passing Downs success thanks to the "Will he run or throw?" conundrum, but he can't do that every play, and UNR will need to figure out how to better avoid Passing Downs if they want to succeed at a very high level.

Quarterback

2008 Unit Ranking: #16 in the nation (#2 in the WAC)

Projected Depth Chart
Colin Kaepernick (6'6, 215, Jr.)
Tyler Lantrip (6'4, 220, So.)
Luke Collis (6'3, 210, So.)

One of the funnier moments of 2008 came when The Beef and I met with rptgwb and Uribe Auction (and, of course, MCboomofdoom) after last year's Mizzou-Nevada game to prepare for the postgame podcast. The first thing any of us could talk about was how amazing Colin Kaepernick was at the play-fake. When you expect him to run the ball at pretty much all times, and he still fools you when he keeps it, you know he's got a good fake going. Combine that with the fact that his legs are about six feet long and he reaches full speed in about two steps, and you've got one of the scarier runners from the quarterback position in college football. In fact, looking at Points Over Expected (POE--a figure we will become much more familiar with later on), he was the #1 rushing QB in college football last year.

Kaepernick's rushing ability, combined with his skill on passing downs, made Nevada's offense a major threat to score at pretty much any moment in 2008. But they didn't score at any moment. Why? Because they weren't the best at staying out of Passing Downs. It doesn't matter how good you are in Passing Downs--your odds are still better in Standard Downs, and the more Passing Downs you face, the more likely you are to fail even if you pull off a few great drive-saving plays. The Standard Downs success must improve.

Kaepernick missed spring practices while rehabbing a minor ankle injury. Backups Tyler Lantrip and Luke Collis both improved tremendously as the spring progressed, and both should be competent should anything happen to #10. That said, it's safe to say that neither can run (or play-fake) like Kaepernick, and if Nevada's beating Mizzou, it's probably not going to be with Lantrip or Collis on the field.

Running Backs

2008 Unit Ranking: #38 in the nation (#3 in the WAC)

Projected Depth Chart
Vai Taua (5'10, 225, Jr.)
Luke Lippincott (6'2, 215, Sr.)
Brandon Fragger (5'9, 195, Sr.)

That's Taua at the bottom. Okay, that was mean...

Here's Taua upright. He rushed for 100 yards seven times in 2008, including a combined 423 against Hawaii and Fresno State.

Few teams in the country are more experienced at running back than the Wolfpack will be in 2009. Vai Taua rushed for 1,521 yards in 2008 (6.4 per carry) as a sophomore, and he will return as the #1 guy. But meanwhile, #2 man Luke Lippincott was recently granted medical hardship year and will return in 2009 having rushed for 1,420 yards in 2007 before being sidelined with a knee injury. They have 633 career carries, pretty good for a 1-2 combination. Then, #3 man Brandon Fragger brings an extra 800 career rushing yards (and 22 receptions) to the table. Combined with Kaepernick's rushing prowess, this turns into a super-powered backfield; for comparison, Missouri fans should think of the Corby-Olivo-Blackwell-West combination of the late-1990s. All four runners have the potential to average over six yards a pop.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Wellington is Kaepernick's only proven weapon returning at WR.

2008 Unit Ranking: #32 in the nation (#3 in the WAC)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Chris Wellington (6'1, 185, Jr.)
Brandon Wimberly (6'3, 195, RSFr.)
Tray Session (6'3, 175, So.)
Maurice Patterson (6'3, 200, Jr.)
Malcolm Shepherd (6'3, 210, Jr.)
Dwayne Sanders (5'10, 175, Sr.)
L.J. Washington (6'0, 195, Fr.)
Arthur King (6'1, 195, Sr.)
Shane Anderson (6'1, 205, So.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Virgil Green (6'5, 225, Jr.)
Kevin Bohr (6'3, 240, Sr.)
Talaiasi Puloka (6'4, 240, Sr.)

If Mizzou can shut down the run, they should be in good shape in the desert on the last Friday of September. As inexperienced as Mizzou's secondary may end up, with a new CB starter opposite Carl Gettis, a sophomore leader in Kenji Jackson, and at least potentially a new starting safety in Jarrell Harrison (if he overtakes Hardy Ricks...and I hope he does), Nevada's receiving corps is equally inexperienced. Removing the 115 catches, 1,761 yards, and 12 touchdowns that Marko Mitchell and Mike McCoy brought to the table last year, all that's left is Chris Wellington (42 for 632 and 6 TDs), TE Virgil Green (13 for 136, 1 TD), and Arthur King (10 for 96). The Wolfpack have a lot of hope pinned to redshirt freshman Brandon Wimberley, who had a wonderful year on the scout team and looked good in the spring. If he and Wellington can approximate Mitchell and McCoy, the Nevada passing attack may be good enough to keep defenses from keying on the run.

Really, though, Wellington and Wimberly need to be better than Mitchell and McCoy. Again, Nevada's Standard Downs passing attack was simply not good enough to take out the big boys (Texas Tech, Missouri, Boise State) on the schedule last year. For the Wolfpack to take out Notre Dame or Missouri, they're going to need some extreme reliability from one of these guys. The sky's the limit if Wimberly turns out to be the real deal, though.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #8 in the nation (#1 in the WAC)

Projected Depth Chart
T Alonzo Durham (6'4, 285, Sr.)
T Mike Gallett (6'6, 295, Jr.)
G John Bender (6'8, 325, Jr.)
C Kenneth Ackerman (6'4, 280, Sr.)
G Chris Barker (6'4, 315, RSFr.)
G Aminiasi Silatolu (6'4, 295, Jr.)
T Steve Haley (6'5, 305, So.)
C Jeff Meads (6'3, 290, So.)
G Steve Werner (6'5, 310, RSFr.)
T Jose Acuna (6'6, 308, Jr.)

Durham's not oversized, but he's one of the WAC's best.

Missouri's defense got a lot of crap last year, and a lot of it was completely deserved. But they faced a murderous set of offenses in 2008, and few had better offensive lines than Nevada did. For them to hold Taua and Fragger to just 76 yards on 20 carries was extremely impressive, as was Mizzou's holding the overall UNR attack to just a 0.713 S&P. Unfortunately for Mizzou, their own defensive line is a lot less experienced in 2009, while Nevada's offensive line should be as good or better. Their 62 returning career starts rank them third in the WAC, and they've got 2-3 all-conference candidates in Alonzo Durham, Mike Gallett, and gigantic John Bender. We're all high on the threesome of Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter; well, Durham and Gallett will make up one of the better pairs of tackles Mizzou will face this year.

Summary

We'll discuss Nevada's defense tomorrow, and there are plenty of concerns and holes there. But this offense is extremely experienced, and while their inconsistency on Standard Downs is a concern for them (and an opportunity for Missouri), Nevada's going to score some points. The defense isn't great, but they'll have some leeway in that their offense will be putting up plenty of scores in the 30s and 40s in 2009. Chris Ault is renowned as one of the most innovative offensive minds in college football, and he will have one of the nation's best running attacks at his disposal, but if they're going to not only beat Missouri but challenge Boise State for a potential BCS slot, a go-to receiver will need to emerge, and, let's face it, Kaepernick's passing will need to improve. He's not a terrible passer by any means, and the threat of his legs give him leeway, but he is not the most efficient passer in the world, and hopefully Mizzou can force the Wolfpack into plenty of Passing Downs situations.

Nevada Links!

Bill C. — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 16:00:44 -0000

Time to talk about one of the most interesting, tricky opponents on the 2009 schedule: Nevada. Needless to say, Mizzou fans are still a bit scarred from the last time Mizzou played a weeknight ESPN game, and I think most fans are treating this game with a healthy amount of paranoia. The good news is, Nevada doesn't have DeMarcus Ware like Troy 2004 did. The bad news is, they do have Colin Kaepernick and an impressive backfield to work with, and the athletic-but-green Mizzou defensive line will likely have its hands full. To the links!

2008 Recap Links!

CFN.com: 2008 blurbs
Cumulative Season Statistics. Colin Kaepernick almost managed a 3,000/1,000 line, while Vai Taua went for 1,521 yards rushing, resulting in, as you'll see in tomorrow's BTBS preview, a Top 10 rushing offense. Mizzou shut the rushing attack down, for the most part (enough, anyway), in 2008--if they want to win on a Friday night in the desert, they'll have to do the same.

2009 Preview Links!

2009 Schedule
ESPN.com: Bruce Feldman's Top 10 potential BCS busters
The Pack are a long, long shot but they are a fun team to watch. Lanky QB Colin Kaepernick is a little like a cross between Robert Griffin and Terrelle Pryor. He's also got a few quality RBs to balance out the offense some. Their D-line's also pretty good. In terms of the schedule, the Pack would need a lot of help. They open at Notre Dame, which I think is going to be improved. The problem is if Nevada upsets the Irish in the opener. Chances are no one will put any stock in the Irish again the rest of the season and that would devalue the win quite a bit. The Pack host Mizzou, which figures to be down. If they win those games and come into the final game at Boise with both teams somehow unbeaten and pull the upset, that would get Nevada into a BCS bowl, but I think that's highly unlikely. Going 10-2 is still probably on the north side of optimistic.
Reno Gazette-Journal: 10 Most Important Players of 2009
Chris Wellington is the only returning receiver with significant experience and production, but there are a number of very promising first-year players at the position, most notably [Brandon] Wimberly. He has to be the guy he showed he can be on the scout team last year, and there is no reason to doubt he will. Four years from now, Pack fans might consider him one of the best to ever play here.
CFN.com: Spring Preview 2009 - The WAC
The most important position to watch is ... Wide receiver. The Wolf Pack has some huge holes to fill with the loss of Marko Mitchell and Mike McCoy. With the multiple receiver sets the coaching staff likes to use, it’s vital for new prospects like Maurice Patterson and Joe Washington to step into roles with Malcolm Shepard, Art King, and Dwayne Sanders returning. Nevada might butter its bread with the running game, but with a quarterback like Kaepernick, the passing game has the potential to be every bit as effective.

Spring Football Links!

NevadaWolfpack.com: Lantrip, Collins Shine in Spring Scrimmage
Tyler Lantrip threw for three touchdowns and Luke Collis tossed another as the Nevada football team held its final spring scrimmage on Saturday at Mackay Stadium. Lantrip and Collis, both sophomores, received 100 percent of the snaps during spring as starter Colin Kaepernick sat out spring while recovering from an ankle injury. The two sophomores are vying for the backup job.
NevadaWolfpack.com: 2009 Post-Spring Depth Chart

Et cetera!

Reno Gazette-Journal: Football season ticket sales already brisk
NevadaWolfpack.com: Luke Lippincott Granted ~~Twenty-Third~~ Sixth Year (seriously, that dude's been there forever)
Reno Gazette-Journal: Q&A with Chris Ault
I was really excited, really pleased with Luke Lippincott, who goes out and breaks the record for the Nevada Run. (Lippincott, a running back, missed nearly all of last season with a torn ACL and received a hardship waiver for a sixth season by the NCAA.) I've got to tell you, that's special. This Nevada Run is not for the quail heart. We've been doing this for 25 years, when you break that record, that's pretty special. I was really excited to see that. He's just getting back in the groove, and he told us, "I'm going to set the record." So I think Luke was just outstanding.

And finally...one community, one Pack...

Poll

On a scale of 1-10, how worried are you about the Nevada game?

1

4 votes

2

7 votes

3

12 votes

4

12 votes

5

7 votes

6

15 votes

7

36 votes

8

23 votes

9

9 votes

10

26 votes

151 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou pistol whips Nevada, 69-17

RPT — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 21:29:15 -0000

(Photo courtesy Jonathan Brownfield, MUTigers.com)

Well, I'm absolutely soaked after the floods came on the walk back to the car after Mizzou's 69-17 thrashing of Nevada, so I'll go ahead and open up this thread for postgame reaction while I head off to take a shower.

The postgame podcast should be posted sometime soon, and Good, Bad, and Indifferent will be available after the jump on this post later in the day.

UPDATE, by rptgwb at 5:37 p.m.: Good, Bad, Indifferent now after the jump.

FINAL STATS

And, just a quick note, take anything "Bad" with a grain of salt. I do indeed realize that it was a 69-17 win over a very formidable non-BCS team.

GOOD

The Mizzou offense... Here's my thorough, in-depth analysis: They're really, really good. Three minutes into the game, Mizzou was on pace for over 3,100 yards of offense. We'll break it down a bit further:
Chase "Golden Watermelon Balls of Fury/Booger" Daniel: Hey, remember what "Heisman candidate" Graham Harrell did to Nevada? Chase Daniel laughs at you, sir. 23-of-28 for 405 yards and 4 TDs in a performance that broke the school record for career passing yardage? That would get you in the "Great" category, if it existed.
D-Wash: His 59-yard touchdown run on the first possession completely changed the complexity of the game. Nevada figured out early it had to respect the run, and that opened up the offense to have the numerical explosion it did.
Jeremy "Cheat Code" Maclin: It is sad that, outside of his long touchdown reception on the second drive, I though he was contained for most of the day? I come back to the stats and see that "contained" apparently means 239 all-purpose yards and 3 touchdowns.
Chase Coffman: Thrust the Nunchuck Upwards failed to get his trademark hurdle in this game, but he represented Aaron O'Neal's No. 25 jersey well, finishing with six receptions, 127 yards and a touchdown. Plus, he gave us in Tiger's Lair the thrill of counting his FIVE stiff arms on one play during a video replay. Looks like Thrust Nunchuck Upward learned how to Punch Nunchuck Forward.
Jared Perry: A quiet six catches for 98 yards and a touchdown (not including one called back for holding), but most importantly for Perry, no drops, when it looked like several passes could have eluded his grip.
The "other" corners: Carl Gettis locked down his half of the field, and Kevin Rutland and Tru Vaughns looked much improved today, with both making several plays on the ball at its highest point. And, although not a corner, Del Howard made a few solid plays today after being questionable at best recently.
The Salute to America: The crowd was DEAD until the B-2 flew over Faurot. Plus, the tribute to Mizzou linebacker and Iraq veteran Zach Milligan (pictured above the jump), was an awesome moment.

BAD

Conventional Wisdom: All we ever hear is about how much Pinkel hates running up the score. What should we make of the fake field goal? Everything I know has been turned upside down. What's next? War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength? Pinkel blew my mind in Orwellian fashion.
Blaine "Matthew Stafford" Gabbert: Anyone else getting concerned about his inability to back down his throws?
The Hail Mary: Mizzou seems to love giving up points on the last play of the half. I'm interested to know who was responsible for Marko Mitchell streaking down the sideline with NO ONE near him when everyone in the stadium knew what was coming.
Dap is due: This isn't a true "bad," but can we give some major love to Colin Kaepernick? As discussed in the podcast, those playfakes were absurd. Seeing the triple option out of the Pistol formation is a sight to behold.
Penalties: The stat sheet only shows 50 yards lost to penalties, but considering the plays they called back, they were worth a lot more. And a few holds ruined what was a very productive day of downfield blocking.

INDIFFERENT

The tenants of The Zou: The 54,000-plus attendance figure wasn't very impressive, but given the horrible weather, I can't rail on it too much.
The blueprint is established: If you watch enough tape on Mizzou, the blueprint of how to exploit the Mizzou D is beginning to emerge. When Mizzou blitzes up the gut, exploit the soft zone with hooks. When Mizzou blitzes outside or runs a base D, run either a screen or draw. The Mizzou D-Line has been EXTREMELY prone to getting upfield too fast at the expense of filling gaps (Kansas could kill MU with the shovel pass all day long in November).
What to do?: Where do we go from here with William Moore? I've got to believe he needs to start backing off the line of scrimmage. He's yet to come up with any huge plays on the blitz, and his presence up front leaves Garrett and Howard hanging out to dry. Granted, I'm not in practice every day, but wouldn't it make more sense to have the hard-hitting but air-vulnerable Garret on the LOS and put the ball-hawking Moore back in coverage?
The O-line: It didn't seem like a great day, but I can't find anyone or anything to single out and complain about. It's nice to be an O-lineman when Chase distributes the ball as quickly as he does when he sees a blitz coming.
Kickoffs: Wolfert had me scared earlier with subpar kickoffs early in the game, but he was launching them by game's end. Plus, as Beef noted in the podcast, the coverage was outstanding, led by Team Velodrome: Gachkar and Ebner (with some help from Lambert).

The comments are open... What am I missing?

Mizzou-Nevada: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 16:30:04 -0000

It's Thursday, so you know what that means...BTBS Day!! At some point in the season, I'll be able to start using 2008 '+' numbers, but the +'s need quite a decent sample size to be even remotely accurate, so for now I'm still going with the "2007 #'s + adjustments" method.

Mizzou-Nevada Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
Nevada Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 10.78
Projection #1: 19.27
Nevada Rushing Defense EqPts+: 132.50
2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
Projection #2: 12.23

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 15.75

Adjusted for 2008: 19.00 (Washington > Temple in my eyes, and if Nevada sells out to stop the pass, look out.)

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
Nevada Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 11.41
Projection #1: 17.06
Nevada Passing Defense EqPts+: 126.17
2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
Projection #2: 14.58

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 15.82

Adjusted for 2008: 19.00 (Mizzou's offense is harder to stop than Texas Tech because of both the running game and the use of tight ends. Tech may have a Jeremy Maclin equivalent--okay, better--in Michael Crabtree, but they don't have a Chase Coffman equivalent.)

Nevada Rushing

Nevada Rushing Offense EqPts+: 133.67
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
Projection #1: 11.08
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
Nevada Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 14.49
Projection #2: 9.53

Projected Nevada Rushing Output: 10.31

Adjusted for 2008: 7.00 (So far, Mizzou's been sturdy against the run, and combined with the loss of Luke Lippincott, UNR should find it hard to move the ball on the ground.)

Nevada Passing

Nevada Passing Offense EqPts+: 126.17
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
Projection #1: 15.32
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
Nevada Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 12.58
Projection #2: 8.92

Projected Nevada Passing Output: 12.12

Adjusted for 2008: 14.00 (Nevada's passing game is inconsistent, but pretty decent at the deep ball. Until Mizzou slows down a passing game, we have to give the edge to the opponent here.)

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 38, Nevada 21

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 41, Nevada 17

Special Teams

Nevada K Brett Jaekle is pretty decent. He missed two FGs last week, but he went 16-for-21 last year and is a decent option. New punter Brad Langley has done a bang-up job so far, averaging 46.9 yards per punt. One problem, though: in two games, Nevada's had a punt blocked and a punt returned for TD. You don't want to have weaknesses in your punting game when you come to Columbia. The return game for Nevada has been more or less a wash this year so far--Dwayne Sanders hasn't had many opportunities to return punts, and Brandon Fragger's been decent but not spectacular in a handful of kickoff returns. Two problems: 1) Nevada's settling for too many FGs (I'll address that below), and 2) Jeremy Maclin returns punts for Mizzou.

And once again, Mizzou has Jeff Wolfert--Nevada doesn't. Never in my life have I taken a 45-yard FG for granted (KNOCK ON WOOD), but that's where we've gotten with Wolfert.

Key Players: Nevada

QB Colin Kaepernick

I hate being predictable, but you have to put Kaepernick at the top of the list. Luke Lippincott is out, and while Nevada's other RBs--Vai Taua, Brandon Fragger--are at the very least competent (Taua might eventually turn out to be as productive as Lippincott), LL's absence does put more pressure on Kaepernick to create on his own. So far he's responded with decent stats--386 passing yards, 143 rushing yards in two games--but he needs to step up his game against the best team on Nevada's schedule. Also, after committing next to no turnovers last year, Kaepernick has three in the first two games of the year--2 INTs and 1 fumble. Missouri's given up quite a few yards so far this year, but if Kaepernick is careless with the ball, Mizzou is more than capable of making him pay.

One other thing--Nevada had numerous chances deep in Texas Tech territory and wasn't able to punch the ball into the endzone, with or without Lippincott. They attempted SIX FG's against Tech, and as was discussed in the offseason, settling for FGs against Mizzou = slow death. It's up to Kaepernick to will the ball into the endzone, and he hasn't proven he can do that consistently against a decent defense yet this year.

WR Marko Mitchell

The key to keeping up with Mizzou, other than not settling for FGs, will be scoring as many easy points as possible--long plays, turnovers, etc. For the "long plays" part of that equation, it's all about Marko Mitchell. Mitchell was a fantastic deep threat last year, and this year has been more of the same so far--in basically 1.5 games against Texas Tech and Grambling, Mitchell has 12 catches for a 16.3-yard average and 1 TD. Aside from maybe a Kaepernick scramble on a broken play, Mitchell represents Nevada's best chance at easy points, and he'll have to come up big at least twice for Nevada to have a chance.

OT's Mike Gallett and Alonzo Durham

Texas Tech racked up four sacks last week. Missouri racked up 5 sacks (four from the DEs) against a mobile QB in Juice Williams. While Mizzou's blitzing has been entirely ineffective, Stryker Sulak and Tommy Chavis are poised for a big game if the O-line--the OT's in particular--can slow them down. SEMO thrived in the "quick delivery" department, and Mizzou's pass rush was somehow held in check last week, but I don't expect that to happen again.

FS Uche Anyanwu

Anyanwu had a solid game against Tech, with 6 tackles and 1 TFL. He and CB Antoine Thompson--3 pass break-ups last week--are the biggest playmakers in Nevada's secondary, and a lot will be expected of them if Mizzou is going to be held under 5 TDs. I was going to put LB Josh Mauga here because of his blitzing prowess, but...well, until given a reason to, I just don't fear other teams' blitzes. It's all on Nevada's secondary to make plays...or at least not miss any tackles.

Key Players: Missouri

TE Chase Coffman

I'm putting him here because of what I said during the score projections. Nevada was able to bump Texas Tech's WRs and confuse Graham Harrell into a 19-for-46 performance. Aside from two plays, they held Michael Crabtree in check (unfortunately for the Wolfpack, those two plays went for 50 and 82 yards...ouch). If they choose to give Jeremy Maclin the Crabtree Treatment, they can limit his effectiveness too. Combined with tight, bumping coverage of the other receivers, you'd think Nevada would have a pretty good recipe for physically defending the spread.

Only...Mizzou doesn't mind physical. They'll just throw to Chase Coffman 12 times, and...

RB Derrick Washington

...give Derrick Washington 15-20 carries. Washington is a strong, physical runner, and he and Coffman are the two reasons I just can't really fear any specific defensive strategy.

CB Castine Bridges

S Delstin Garward (Justin Garrett + Del Howard)

Here's what I said about Nevada's passing game back in June:

On non-passing downs, Nevada isn't very aggressive in the passing game--their 0.865 Passing S&P is lower than the national 0.884 and disproportionately lower than a lot of their numbers compared to the national average. However, on passing downs, it appears they go deep...a lot. Their success rate isn't that much higher than normal on passing downs, but when they connect, it's a huge play. Their 0.862 Passing S&P on passing downs has got to be one of the higher numbers in the country.

Two things concern me about this: 1) Mizzou was having Castine Bridges give a massively soft cushion on SEMO WRs last week. Maybe that changes this week, but if not, Nevada's horizontal passing game on non-passing downs could find all sorts of dink-and-dunk success against the Mizzou secondary, namely Bridges. So that's why Bridges is on there.

As for Garrett/Howard...well, if it's a passing down, chances are good that Mizzou's blitzing. And if they're blitzing, chances are good that they're sending William Moore. So that leaves Delstin Garward as the last line of defense...a role not filled very capably against Illinois.

Summary

Nevada is capable of scoring some points, and they've got enough physical guys on defense that they can wear you down if you let them. Their combination of dink-and-dunk prowess on non-passing downs and deep-ball prowess on passing downs has me a bit worried. I think Nevada will put up some yards. But let's go with the Star Factor here.

Nevada's Stars

Colin Kaepernick
Marko Mitchell
Joshua Mauga (potentially)

Missouri's Stars

Chase Daniel
Derrick Washington
Jeremy Maclin (the receiver)
Jeremy Maclin (the kick returner)
Chase Coffman
Colin Brown
Stryker Sulak
Ziggy Hood
Sean Weatherspoon
William Moore
Carl Gettis
Jeff Wolfert

Missouri is giving up too many yards, and I expect that to continue somewhat on Saturday. But they've just got too many playmakers. I think the BTBS projection (41-17) may be just about dead on with this one, but until someone holds Mizzou under 52, I'm going with the trend*.

* Two times = trend, right?

My Prediction: Missouri 52, Nevada 17.

Poll

The BTBS Projection says Mizzou 41, Nevada 17 (which just so happens to be about where the betting line is). I didn't want to more-or-less duplicate a poll at Mizzourah, but...well...

25-point margin = too high. This one's going to be a battle.

27 votes

25-point margin = too low. Nevada simply can't keep up.

61 votes

88 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Marko Mitchell

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Nevada Preview

Nevada at Notre Dame Preview: Don't Turn Your Back On The Wolf Pack

Mizzou Links, 8-24-09

Boise State 2009 opponent preview: Nevada

Five Questions

Schedule around the Boise State game

By the Numbers

Crossfire: Nevada Q&A

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

2008

Coaching

Offense

Quarterback

Running Backs

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Summary

Nevada Links!

On a scale of 1-10, how worried are you about the Nevada game?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Mizzou pistol whips Nevada, 69-17

Mizzou-Nevada: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

The BTBS Projection says Mizzou 41, Nevada 17 (which just so happens to be about where the betting line is). I didn't want to more-or-less duplicate a poll at Mizzourah, but...well...

25-point margin = too high. This one's going to be a battle.

25-point margin = too low. Nevada simply can't keep up.