SB Nation - Luke Lippincott

Can the Boise State defense slow down the Nevada running game?

Kevan Lee — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:48:02 -0000

Nevada is being hailed as one of the greatest rushing offenses in the history of college football. Does Boise State's defense stand a chance of stopping them?

To be sure, the Wolf Pack have not seen a defense as solid as Boise State's for a long time. Irresistible force meets immovable object? We'll see on Friday night. In the meantime, join me after the jump for a look at some in-depth stats on both sides of the debate.

Nevada on offense

By now, you know the characters: QB Colin Kaepernick, RB Luke Lippincott, RB Vai Taua, Chris Ault, the devil to whom Chris Ault sold his soul in exchange for the Pistol offense. On Friday, Nevada will do what Nevada always does: Run the ball until someone makes them stop. At that point, they will call pass plays, and Kaepernick will decide to scramble 75 percent of the time.

Can you blame them for being so obvious and transparent? Even when teams know the run is coming, they cannot stop it. Nevada has been downright dominant in virtually every situation this year. Here are the numbers.

(Note: Success defined as gaining 50 percent of needed yards on 1st down, 75 percent on 2nd down, and 100 percent on 3rd and 4th down. Power attempts defined as third or fourth down with two yards or less to go or goal-to-go attempts from the two-yard-line or closer.)

To put things into layman's terms, Nevada gets first downs on two out of every three carries. Lippincott is the most effective runner on the team, but all three (Kaepernick, Lippincott, and Taua) have successful carries over half of the time. On 3rd and short, the Wolf Pack are almost automatic. Nevada has had one of the most successful offensive streaks that you will ever see.

Boise State on defense

Bronco fans should take comfort in last year's game against the Wolf Pack. In the midst of another prolific rushing season, Nevada managed only 144 yards against the Bronco defense. Justin Wilcox's scheme worked to perfection to stop Kaepernick from making plays. The inside push of the defensive lineman held Taua in check. There was no Lippincott last year, but he would have been running into the same wall that Taua did. The Boise State defense outplayed the Nevada offense.

No doubt Nevada has improved from last year. In that case, is the 2009 Boise State defense better or worse than the 2008 defense?

The question is completely open for debate, and in the end, there is probably no way of actually knowing the right answer. For what it's worth, I think last year's version was better. The 2009 team seems a little more undisciplined, and they miss more tackles. If the Broncos could have carried the defensive effort from the Oregon game through the whole season, I would vote for the 2009 defense being the better of the two. However, I think it's safe to say that hasn't happened.

At the same time, this year's Boise State defense is no slouch. In fact, it will probably be the best one that Nevada has faced all season long. More importantly, the stats on the Boise State defense match up well against those of Nevada's offense.

The Boise State rush defense has been an interesting case study all season long. The Broncos have given up big yardage days to a few really good running backs (Ryan Mathews, DeMaundray Woolridge). However, they don't often give up big yardage days to really good running schemes. Follow me?

Boise State's rush defense numbers are quite good. They only allow one-third successful rushing attempts on first down and one-fourth successful rushes on second down. If the Broncos can maintain those numbers on Friday, and if Nevada chooses to rush on first and second down, chances are good that the Wolf Pack will be in a 3rd and long. And that is exactly where you want Nevada to be.

The keys to success for the Boise State defense will be:

Limit yards on first and second down.
Force 3rd and long.
Get tackles for loss.
Wrap up and make one-on-one tackles.
Stay disciplined.

What Boise State might do to stop the Wolf Pack

Last year's defensive scheme involved a safety taking Kaepernick one-on-one on running plays, and it worked like a charm. Boise State pinched the middle of the line to take away the dive plays to Taua, and Kaepernick could not shake the equally athletic DBs when he got out to the edge. Don't be surprised to see a similar strategy on Friday night. Boise State has the athletes and the depth to pull it off. Not many other WAC schools do.

Also don't be surprised if you see a little wrinkle that Boise State showed last week against the Utah State Aggies. Facing a similar style of offense, the Broncos came out in a standard 3-4 defense. Here's how it looked:

Winston Venable moved in to outside linebacker, Chase Baker dropped to nose tackle, Billy Winn bumped out to defensive end, and Shea McClellin stood up to play the outside linebacker opposite Venable. The Broncos flipped the formation depending on where the ball was placed on the hashes.

Just like the pro-style 3-4 defense, the Broncos can do a lot of different things from this formation including blitzes, stunts, and zone blitzes. McClellin, who played linebacker in high school, was seen dropping into coverage on his first quarter interception, Winn would occasionally come off the line to spy on Borel, and Mackey and Tevis were always a threat to blitz. The formation worked against Utah State. Will it return Friday night against Nevada?

Your turn

You've seen the stats and heard the hype. How do you think Boise State's run defense will do against the Wolf Pack? Would you prefer to see last year's strategy return or try out the new 3-4 look? What defensive players will play the biggest roles? What will be key to stopping the run? Share your thoughts in the comments.

Mizzou-Nevada: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 15:00:19 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

In the end, this was not a very statistically impressive win. Mizzou's now looked extremely statistically impressive twice and unimpressive twice, and...guess what: they're 4-0. What we're seeing right now is a young, relatively inconsistent team that kicks its game up in the second half and makes the plays it needs to make. We'll see what happens when the schedule gets tougher--does Missouri get tougher too, or is this shaping up to be another 7-5/8-4 season when all is said and done? Anybody who says they know the answer is lying.

	Mizzou (31)	Nevada (21)
Close %	93.8%
Field Position %	54.2%	57.5%
Leverage %	63.9%	71.2%

TOTAL
EqPts	29.8	23.2
Close Success Rate	41.7%	51.6%
Close PPP	0.41	0.28
Close S&P	0.831	0.798

RUSHING
EqPts	4.1	15.4
Close Success Rate	25.8%	65.8%
Close PPP	0.13	0.36
Close S&P	0.391	1.019
Line Yards/carry	1.45	4.07

PASSING
EqPts	25.7	7.8
Close Success Rate	53.7%	30.8%
Close PPP	0.63	0.17
Close S&P	1.163	0.476
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 5.0%	0.0% / 25.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	43.5%	55.8%
PPP	0.37	0.25
S&P	0.803	0.803

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	38.5%	42.9%
PPP	0.50	0.50
S&P	0.881	0.928

TURNOVERS
Number	1	2
Turnover Pts	4.1	10.1
Turnover Pts Margin	+6.0	-6.0

Q1 S&P	0.675	0.991
Q2 S&P	0.796	0.382
Q3 S&P	1.128	1.031
Q4 S&P	0.866	0.956

1st Down S&P	0.541	0.783
2nd Down S&P	1.043	0.884
3rd Down S&P	1.105	0.870

Projected Pt. Margin	+12.6	-12.6
Actual Pt. Margin	+10	-10

Reactions

Here's where a stat nerd faces a conundrum. Nevada ran almost three-fifths of their plays in Mizzou territory, which is way too many, but they also gave up only three touchdowns, one of which came when the game was iced. There is not much of a place for statistical peace when it comes to the "bend but don't break" style, but...Mizzou didn't break. What to think?
Another dilemma: Mizzou faced way too many Passing Downs, but they responded very well to them. Is that a silver lining or a warning sign?
1.45 line yards per carry. Yeah. Though that was balanced out a smidge by what ended up being a damn solid pass blocking performance. Some credit for that has to go to Blaine Gabbert showing some really good escapability, but as David Yost pointed out on Tiger Talk last night, sometimes Gabbert escapes the pocket when he doesn't need to. It usually ends up working out okay (at least not including the first half of the Bowling Green game), but the protection really is probably a bit better than it gets credit for...which is good, because the run blocking most certainly is not.
Both teams did better offensively on Passing Downs than Standard Downs. Makes total sense. Mizzou couldn't move the ball on first downs to save their lives, but Blaine Gabbert was a laid-back assassin on third downs.
Q2 defense and Q3/Q4 offense won this game for Mizzou. Nevada's S&P rebounded with a near-flawless final drive after Mizzou had closed out the win, but in all Mizzou really did do enough to win this game--this wasn't a little lucky like the Bowling Green game. Nevada played well, and Mizzou played a bit better. This brings up an interesting situation with perspective: without knowing what happened in Nevada's first two games, this would have been exactly the type of effort I would have expected from Nevada. They made plays and had a chance to win, but Mizzou made more plays and won.

If I'd been told we'd win like this in the offseason, I'd have been thrilled. But thanks to a wretched two-game road trip to start the season, expectations on Nevada's capabilities changed pretty significantly. I guess we'll see how the Wolf Pack responds as the season progresses--they need to turn things around pretty quickly, or else they're looking at a 2004 Mizzou type of situation, where negative sentiment and lack of confidence in key moments affects what seems overall to be a pretty talented squad.
So here's something amusing: I spent all offseason writing approximately 125,000 words about Mizzou's 2009 prospects, and I came to the following conclusion about the offense: big plays might be a problem, but Mizzou should be able to fall back on their run game, a great offensive line, and solid possession receiving from guys like Andrew Jones and Wes Kemp to move the chains and take pressure off of Blaine Gabbert.

Yeah, the exact opposite has more or less happened. Teams are focusing on the run and stopping it more effectively than I anticipated, and Andrew Jones has been a complete non-factor...but Mizzou has made more big offensive plays than anybody else in the conference. Who knew? I sure didn't. Good thing I spent all season analyzing this instead of, you know, working out or something.

More after the jump.

Three Positives

Missouri > Circumstances. Tricky road trip, altitude, a desperate opponent, a young QB's first long-distance start...and Mizzou won. We can analyze data all we want, but this could have been a hornets' nest, and Mizzou handled it well, making all the big plays when the game was on the line in the second half.
The Receiving Corps. Needless to say, when your top three receivers combine for 20 catches, 341 yards, and three touchdowns, the receiving corps is a strength. Danario can do it all, Jared Perry is a master of the screen, and Wes Kemp is great on both out routes and deep balls. Again, I could go a lot further into the numbers on this one, but why? The typical box score stats do just fine.
The Pass Rush. Or to specify, the Passing Downs Pass Rush. The "scorpion" defense is successfully doing exactly what it was supposed to do--get after the quarterback. Colin Kaepernick escaped the rush because he's Colin Kaepernick, but on 12 Passing Downs pass attempts, Mizzou registered three sacks and almost had a couple more. With this sort of pass rush, it's no wonder our pass defense as a whole is looking better. You can still complete short passes on us on Standard Downs, but in the grand scheme of things, that's allowable. You can complete those passes against just about anybody, not just Missouri.

From here on out, against Nebraska and beyond, the key for Missouri will be forcing Passing Downs. Clearly Nebraska's personnel is completely different than Nevada's--Zac Lee is obviously less mobile than Kaepernick, but NU will also have more receiving threats to worry about...plus they actually have a tight end--not sure Nevada does, really. How Mizzou uses the next week and a half to work on its weaknesses, and how it defines its weaknesses, will go a long way toward defining the season.

Three Negatives

Another slow start. If there's one single difference between this year's Missouri team and the Chase Daniel-led Missouri team, it's first-quarter stats. The first time Mizzou touched the ball, they went three-and-out. The first time Nevada touched the ball, they scored a touchdown. Granted, Mizzou was done a favor with Vai Taua's muffed punt, and they were able to get a field goal on their second-chance first possession; but in all, Missouri was -0.316 in Q1 S&P margin. Eventually this will bite us.
The interior defensive line. I'm not at all ready to label this a weakness, but the fact is, while Jaron Baston made a handful of really nice plays, when he wasn't making a play, there were holes wide open for Nevada between the tackles. One game does not define a unit, but they failed that test, and obviously with Roy Helu, Jr., on the horizon, this is at least a bit of a concern. I'm not at all worried about Helu's ability to get outside--he's not a burner, and our perimeter speed is absolutely fantastic, as shown by guys like Andrew Gachkar and Jacquies Smith and the plays they made against Nevada. But interior rushes were a huge success for Nevada, and now Missouri has to prepare for a better running team. Or at least, a team with better running backs. Nothing against Luke Lippincott--he did a helluva job--but Helu's better.
Duh...the running game. On This Week in Mizzou Football, Gary Pinkel mentioned that most defenses this year (everybody but Bowling Green) have aimed to take away the run at all costs. Simply because Blaine Gabbert has been so successful throwing the ball, I don't expect many defenses to focus on that as much. That alone should open up some running lanes for Derrick Washington, who aside from the late-Q2 fumble, I thought actually ran pretty well. He still doesn't get arm tackled, and he falls forward a lot...but he's just having to make moves too early, and the line isn't blocking well enough, period.

I should also mention that I think the people who are complaining about the slow-developing runs are missing the point. This team has produced three straight 1,000-yard rushers with these running plays. The slow development also allows the blockers to do their thing, so if the blocking is good, the speed of the runs really does not matter. The plays aren't the problem--the blocking, and the successful shooting of gaps, are.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

Circumstances

You've got a young quarterback making his first out-of-state start (and for that matter, you've got a team with almost 30 frosh/sophs on the two-deep playing really far away from home for the first time). You've got altitude. You've got a team that has gone from simply being motivated by revenge against Missouri to being motivated by a desperate need to make something (anything) positive happen. You've got a two-timezone trip west. All of these things are working in Nevada's favor.

Mission accomplished. This wasn't exactly a hostile environment--less than 20,000 fans filled the 30,000 seat stadium, and a decent number of those were Mizzou fans. Regardless, Mizzou handled it pretty well, especially their quarterback. Nevada played well, and I would expect that they'll have no trouble making a bowl game if they continue to play like that, but Missouri was better.

Passing Downs

Nevada wins this game by forcing Blaine Gabbert into making mistakes he hasn't made yet. Those will almost certainly come in Passing Downs. Minimize the number of Passing Downs Gabbert faces, and you minimize the risk of mistakes. That means a) good running, especially early in the game, b) no drops, and c) no penalties. You want the Nevada crowd to get into the game, and the Nevada team to get its confidence back? Face a lot of 3rd-and-9's and see what happens. Again, Missouri is the better overall team here, but this is still a dangerous game because of what Missouri could do to Missouri.

Big fat fail here--penalties and drops weren't a problem, but obviously running was--but it didn't matter. Thanks to Nevada's successful run defense, Missouri faced far too many passing downs...and did just fine. Let's not push the limits on our sudden Passing Downs effectiveness, however.

Tackling

Tackle well, shadow Kaepernick, don't give up big gains, and you give your young offense more margin for error. Nevada's big-play potential just hasn't made an appearance yet this year, and they might need Missouri's help in breaking out.

In the end, this one probably won the game. Yes, Kaepernick escaped the rush on his touchdown run, but that was only one of two scores Nevada managed when the game was "close." Most of Kaepernick's passes were short (ten yards or less), and only once did a Missouri defender miss the tackle and allow a bigger gain. It's pretty clear that the Missouri strategy on Passing Downs is to not blitz much, let "The Scorpion" get after the quarterback, and let 6-7 defenders form a cloud in the secondary and either make the tackle immediately (if the QB gets a throw off) or break up the pass. With good tackling, that's a winning defensive strategy.

Summary

Obviously, stat nerds don't particularly like the "A win is a win" cliche, but that's really all I wanted to get from this game, and Missouri got it. They're undefeated in non-conference play over the last four years now, and if nothing else, that all but assures that Goal #1 for the season--bowl eligibility--is in the bag. Goal #2--competing for a North title? We'll learn about this one next Thursday night. Missouri's initial "+" numbers don't look too hot right now, and it's easy to figure out why. They dominated an Illinois team that got dominated by Ohio State. They beat a Nevada team that got dominated by Notre Dame. Bowling Green followed up a well-gameplanned performance against Missouri by losing at Marshall and getting blown out by Boise State.

What we've learned about this team is that a) what we thought would be a concern (QB play, big-play threats at WR, pass defense) isn't...and b) this team still has plenty of concerns. Making any serious judgements beyond that would be crazy, though, and there's a pretty easy reason why: look at 2007. The 2007 season showed that Missouri's coaches use the non-conference season to prepare for the conference season. That year, the defense that gave up 100+ yards to Illinois State's Geno Blow would soon hold just about every 2007 conference opponent below its season averages. We have no idea what type of adjustments this staff will be making before next Thursday night, but it's pretty clear that, for better or worse, adjustments will be made. Gary Pinkel and his staff now know what they have to work with--now let's see what they do with it.

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 14:30:19 -0000

You had to wait an extra day for it, but you have to wait a day less for the actual game, so that balances out, right?

Image via the Reno Gazette-Journal

Offense

Nevada: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

A BTBS look at the Nevada Offense

Close S&P: 0.802 (National Rank: 52nd)
Close Success Rate: 52.5% (14th)
Close PPP: 0.28 (97th)

Rushing Success Rate: 57.9% (7th)
Rushing PPP: 0.35 (37th)
Rushing S&P: 0.929 (14th)

Passing Success Rate: 43.5% (39th)
Passing PPP: 0.16 (115th)
Passing S&P: 0.592 (102nd)

Standard Downs S&P: 0.942 (37th)
SD Rushing S&P: 0.974 (16th)
SD Passing S&P: 0.324 (96th)

Passing Downs S&P: 0.509 (92nd)
PD Rushing S&P: 0.531 (64th)
PD Passing S&P: 0.506 (97th)

Red Zone S&P: 0.609 (116th)

Q1 S&P: 0.916 (36th)
Q2 S&P: 0.655 (89th)
Q3 S&P: 0.911 (35th)
Q4 S&P: 0.882 (27th)

1st Down S&P: 1.024 (12th)
2nd Down S&P: 0.664 (88th)
3rd Down S&P: 0.678 (77th)

Line Yards/Carry: 3.41 (22nd)
Standard Downs Sack Rate: 7.5% (108th)
Passing Downs Sack Rate: 0.0% (1st)

(Here's your reminder that these are not "+" numbers, meaning they are not adjusted for strength of schedule. It's pretty hard to do that when a team's only played two games. This is important to remember when looking at the UNR defense especially, and in all it's a reminder that these numbers should not be taken 100% at face value. That said, these are per-play measures, so they will still tell you infinitely more than simply "Team A is averaging ___ yards per game," or something like that.)

Even if you don't have a clue about S&P and don't care to have a clue, a quick perusal of these rankings paints a pretty quick, clear picture of Nevada and where it has struggled. We've all heard about how poorly Nevada has played this year, but in reality they've only performed poorly in certain circumstances. In Standard Downs (1st downs, 2nd-and-5 or less, 3rd-and-3 or less), the Wolf Pack rushing attack has been just about as good as it was supposed to be. At least, they've been as efficient as they were supposed to be. It appears that teams are reining them in pretty well, and with a pretty pathetic passing attack, it makes sense why. If defenses don't have to even acknowledge the passing game, they can gang up on the run.

And really, that has been the major issue for Nevada this year. Maybe Colin Kaepernick is trying too hard to make plays, maybe the play-calling has been poor...bottom line is, two games into the season Nevada has no passing threat whatsoever. Getting back home and relaxing a bit (if it's possible to relax in what has become a pretty anti-Ault atmosphere) could help, but at this exact moment they've proven nothing.

Quarterback

Kaepernick's rushing ability, combined with his skill on passing downs, made Nevada's offense a major threat to score at pretty much any moment in 2008. But they didn't score at any moment. Why? Because they weren't the best at staying out of Passing Downs. It doesn't matter how good you are in Passing Downs--your odds are still better in Standard Downs, and the more Passing Downs you face, the more likely you are to fail even if you pull off a few great drive-saving plays. The Standard Downs success must improve.

Colin Kaepernick: 37-for-61 passing, 400 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT, 6.6 yards per pass, 108.0 QB Rating. Also, 17 carries, 63 yards, long: 17.

The Standard Downs success has not improved. That said, it hasn't really regressed either--Nevada's Standard Downs S&P has fallen from 0.966 to 0.942, which is relatively negligible in the end. The problem is, the Passing Downs that were a bit of an issue are a complete and total debacle this year. Their Passing Downs production has fallen 32% thus far, and in 61 overall pass attempts, Kaepernick has thrown one touchdown pass and four interceptions. As Missouri fans learned with Brad Smith, if opponents aren't scared of the pass, they can shadow the run a bit more, and though Kaepernick is still capable of making plays with the defense focused on him, he's simply not going to make as many plays.

Should the Passing Downs struggles be blamed on Kaepernick? The receivers? The coach? I haven't seen a single second of either Nevada game, so obviously I don't know for sure. I do know that Nevada left about 17 points off the board against Notre Dame and blew multiple scoring opportunities, which means that a) they did in fact create scoring opportunities, and b) they (Kaepernick included) shot themselves in the foot eventually. I also know that Kaep's completion percentage has gone up, meaning there might be an issue with receivers not being able to actually make a tackler miss and get downfield. Obviously we'll see tonight what was the cause and the struggles will be sustained now that they're back at home.

Running Back

Few teams in the country are more experienced at running back than the Wolfpack will be in 2009. Vai Taua rushed for 1,521 yards in 2008 (6.4 per carry) as a sophomore, and he will return as the #1 guy. But meanwhile, #2 man Luke Lippincott was recently granted medical hardship year and will return in 2009 having rushed for 1,420 yards in 2007 before being sidelined with a knee injury. They have 633 career carries, pretty good for a 1-2 combination. Then, #3 man Brandon Fragger brings an extra 800 career rushing yards (and 22 receptions) to the table.

Vai Taua: 32 carries, 209 yards, 6.5 per carry, two touchdowns, plus five catches, 42 yards.
Luke Lippincott: 9 carries, 52 yards, 5.8 per carry

Clearly they've been holding up their end of the bargain. Again, Nevada has been relatively efficient in terms of moving the ball on Standard Downs. It's what happens when the RBs are stopped for a short gain that is the problem.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Removing the 115 catches, 1,761 yards, and 12 touchdowns that Marko Mitchell and Mike McCoy brought to the table last year, all that's left is Chris Wellington (42 for 632 and 6 TDs), TE Virgil Green (13 for 136, 1 TD), and Arthur King (10 for 96). The Wolfpack have a lot of hope pinned to redshirt freshman Brandon Wimberley, who had a wonderful year on the scout team and looked good in the spring. If he and Wellington can approximate Mitchell and McCoy, the Nevada passing attack may be good enough to keep defenses from keying on the run.

WR Tray Session (So.): 12 catches, 137 yards, 11.4 per catch.
WR Brandon Wimberly (RSFr.): 9 catches, 140 yards, 15.6 per catch, 1 TD.
WR Chris Wellington (Jr.): 6 catches, 49 yards
TE Virgil Green (Jr.): 6 catches, 37 yards

Aaaaand that's it. Only four WR/TEs have caught passes thus far, suggesting little depth, and only one of the four is averaging more than 11.5 yards per catch, suggesting little explosivness. Again, it's early, and one good game could completely change perceptions (just look at Florida State, described as "on fire" on an ESPN commercial this morning, when seven days ago they were on the ropes after almost losing to Jacksonville State...perceptions change in milliseconds), but for now this unit has done nothing to alleviate the major concern for this offense heading into 2009, which was that nobody would be able to replace Marko Mitchell as the go-to, big-play threat. Wimberly may be well on his way, but it's still early in his first season on the field. An even bigger problem, though, is apparently depth.

Offensive Line

For [Mizzou] to hold Taua and Fragger to just 76 yards on 20 carries was extremely impressive, as was Mizzou's holding the overall UNR attack to just a 0.713 S&P. Unfortunately for Mizzou, their own defensive line is a lot less experienced in 2009, while Nevada's offensive line should be as good or better. Their 62 returning career starts rank them third in the WAC, and they've got 2-3 all-conference candidates in Alonzo Durham, Mike Gallett, and gigantic John Bender. We're all high on the threesome of Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter; well, Durham and Gallett will make up one of the better pairs of tackles Mizzou will face this year.

The O-line appears to be holding up its end of the bargain, at least to an extent. With a running quarterback, it's impossible to glean much from Sack Rates. Have they protected Kaepernick really well on Passing Downs (leading to 0 sacks), or is Kaepernick either evading the rush or making throws too quickly? Are defenders backing off and trying to contain Kaepernick instead of coming straight at him? Is an awful Standard Downs sack rate the sign of poor protection, or is Kaepernick staying in the pocket far too long, looking to make a play? The OL has done well in run-blocking, and I thought they'd be pretty good heading into the season, so I'm going to assume that they've at least been decent in the first two games. Either way, I'm a lot more comfortable with Missouri's defensive line and a little less sold on Nevada's offensive line. At worst, I think this matchup ends up being a draw.

---

Defense

Nevada: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

A BTBS look at the Nevada Defense

Close S&P: 1.066 (117th)
Close Success Rate: 52.4% (116th)
Close PPP: 0.54 (118th)

Rushing Success Rate: 53.3% (111th)
Rushing PPP: 0.30 (80th)
Rushing S&P: 0.830 (106th)

Passing Success Rate: 51.4% (114th)
Passing PPP: 0.84 (119th)
Passing S&P: 1.353 (120th)

Standard Downs S&P: 0.969 (108th)
SD Rushing S&P: 0.839 (95th)
SD Passing S&P: 1.244 (114th)

Passing Downs S&P: 1.011 (117th)
PD Rushing S&P: 0.531 (69th)
PD Passing S&P: 1.672 (120th)

Red Zone S&P: 1.537 (119th)

Q1 S&P: 1.028 (115th)
Q2 S&P: 1.002 (107th)
Q3 S&P: 1.033 (112th)
Q4 S&P: 0.862 (97th)

1st Down S&P: 1.010 (115th)
2nd Down S&P: 0.993 (111th)
3rd Down S&P: 0.924 (106th)

Line Yards/Carry: 2.95 (78th)
Standard Downs Sack Rate: 3.7% (71st)
Passing Downs Sack Rate: 6.3% (71st)

Oy. Nevada's best ranking anywhere on this list is 71st. Now...again...Notre Dame has a very good offense (or at least they did before Michael Floyd went down--we'll see now), so a strength-of-schedule adjustment will help the Pack here. But still. There's bad, and there's bad, and I think Nevada's going to get the italicization treatment.

One other disclaimer: Nevada's only played two games, so the two long passes to Michael Floyd of 70 and 88 yards could be, by themselves, skewing these numbers. But being that we thought the secondary would be a concern heading into the season, and being that Missouri's WR corps has looked quite good for 2.5 games this year (they didn't in the first half against Bowling Green), this is still obviously a positive sign for Mizzou.

Defensive Line

To say the defensive line is the strength of the Nevada defense is a major understatement. As sophomores, ends Kevin Basped and Dontay Mach combined for 36 tackles for loss and 21.5 sacks last year. They both return, as do backups Daniel Agaiava and Ryan Coulson, who combined for another three TFLs in limited time. Now, it should be noted that Nevada registered no sacks on Chase Daniel last year, not even a QB hurry. Basped did manage 1.5 TFLs, but Chase Daniel was not touched all game, and while Daniel and his senior pocket presence are gone in 2009, the Mizzou offensive line should be as good or better.

Kevin Basped: 2.5 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack, 1 pass break-up
Dontay Mach: 9.5 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 QB hurry

Mach's held up his end of the bargain, but Basped has been underwhelming so far. Tackles Nate Agaiava and Zack Madonick have been serviceable, combining for 7.0 tackles and 2.0 TFL. In all, though, Nevada mas managed just two sacks in two games. It's no wonder the Wolf Pack is apparently considering sending the house at Gabbert instead of dropping seven into coverage like Bowling Green--they probably can't get in Gabbert's face without doing so.

Linebackers

Gone is rock solid Jonathan Mauga, and into the starting lineup (probably) move Brandon Marshall (8.5 of 33 tackles went for loss, another high %) and big Mike Bethea. Looking at the stats, you pretty quickly see that Nevada's LBs play quite close to the line of scrimmage, which is great for defending the run...and not so much defending the pass. It puts a lot of pressure on the secondary, and in 2008, the secondary didn't respond too well. What about 2009?

Mike Bethea: 12.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 sack
James-Michael Johnson: 11.5 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 QB hurry
Brandon Marshall: 8.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 pass break-ups

If there has been a strength on this defense, then the LBs would probably be it. They are making plays just like they did last year. Again, though, a) Nevada has managed just two sacks, and b) the secondary has been repeatedly roasted.

In all, if there's a bright spot to Nevada's defense, it's that they've racked up 13.5 tackles for loss, mostly against the run. If Derrick Washington isn't running well, and they can stop him in the backfield enough, Missouri will be forced into Passing Downs. In Blaine Gabbert's first true road game as a starter, Missouri wants to avoid Passing Downs at all costs.

Secondary

The good news for Nevada is, their safeties are ball hawks. Jonathon Amaya had four picks in 2008, and Mo Harvey added three from a backup role. The bad news is, as I've already repeatedly mentioned, when they didn't make the big play, they were giving up one. Amaya and #1 CB Antoine Thompson are both seniors, as are Harvey and likely backup CB Cameron Bayne. There is experience here, but pressure will be on sophomore Isaiah Frey and a batch of redshirt freshmen trying to break their way into the rotation. Nevada clearly wants to attack with their front seven, meaning they need skill, smarts and speed from the secondary (but really, who doesn't?). Their smarts will improve with experience, but...speed? They apparently need some.

I was going to put some individual stats here, but...it's nothing good. Nevada has intercepted zero passes and broken up only five (the secondary accounts for only two of them). They're giving up 12.7 yards per pass, which is insanely high. Take away Floyd's two bombs, and the average is 9.3, which is still terrible. How terrible? SMU was worst in the country in this category last year...and they gave up just 9.0 per pass. Bad. REALLY, REALLY bad.

In all, Nevada's only hope is what I mentioned above--stopping the run enough to force Mizzou into Passing Downs and hope for some bad decisions from Gabbert. Having witnessed the first half of the Bowling Green game, I know that that strategy holds at least a small chance of working, but...eesh. That secondary is just terrible.

Special Teams

Brad Langley's a decent punter, but they don't return a dangerous return man (though one might materialize, I guess), and they'll feature a new kicker, who might or might not be good (you never really know in advance). In a game full of interesting matchups--Nevada seemingly having the advantage on the ground, Missouri in the air--things could swing on special teams play, and neither unit has a distinct advantage here.

Punt Returns Rank: 58th
Net Punting Rank: 44th
Kickoff Returns Rank: 33rd
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 112th

Field Goals: 0-for-1
PATs: 0-for-1

So...Mike Ball (five returns, 32.8 average) is a pretty good kickoff returner. That is at least a bit of a concern since Missouri is only 82nd in the country in Opponents' Kickoff Returns. Other than that? Um, not very good stuff from Nevada here. And yes, Nevada has attempted only one PAT in two games (they went for two on their other two TDs versus Colorado State)...and they missed it. It's been a comedy of errors for Chris Ault's Wolf Pack so far this year.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Circumstances

We discussed this on Saturday's podcast. Looking at statistics, results, recruiting rankings, previous head-to-head matchups, whatever you like--it's pretty clear that Missouri is and has been a better football team than Nevada. But that won't really matter tonight if Missouri is overtaken by circumstance. You've got a young quarterback making his first out-of-state start (and for that matter, you've got a team with almost 30 frosh/sophs on the two-deep playing really far away from home for the first time). You've got altitude. You've got a team that has gone from simply being motivated by revenge against Missouri to being motivated by a desperate need to make something (anything) positive happen. You've got a two-timezone trip west. All of these things are working in Nevada's favor.

And that's all that's working in Nevada's favor at the moment. Missouri is a solid passing team playing against a god-awful pass defense. Their biggest concerns on defense (secondary) are neutralized by Nevada's biggest concern on offense (passing). Nevada's whole program is on the verge of being turned on by its fanbase. You get the feeling that if Missouri actually starts strong for once, this one will be in the bag by the second quarter. But Missouri isn't a strong-starting team. And they haven't encountered a situation like this before, at least much of the current personnel hasn't. Get past the circumstances of the moment, and Missouri wins the game. Easier said than done.

Passing Downs

I mentioned this above. Nevada wins this game by forcing Blaine Gabbert into making mistakes he hasn't made yet. Those will almost certainly come in Passing Downs. Minimize the number of Passing Downs Gabbert faces, and you minimize the risk of mistakes. That means a) good running, especially early in the game, b) no drops, and c) no penalties. You want the Nevada crowd to get into the game, and the Nevada team to get its confidence back? Face a lot of 3rd-and-9's and see what happens. Again, Missouri is the better overall team here, but this is still a dangerous game because of what Missouri could do to Missouri.

Tackling

Tackle well, shadow Kaepernick, don't give up big gains, and you give your young offense more margin for error. Nevada's big-play potential just hasn't made an appearance yet this year, and they might need Missouri's help in breaking out.

Really, all three of these keys are tied with two themes: brains and fundamentals. Don't lose your heads, don't make silly mistakes, and you probably win this game. Or at least you force Nevada to play really well to win, and they haven't done that since early-November of last year.

Prediction

I'm more nervous about what Missouri is going to do in this game than Nevada. We've seen this situation a thousand times in college football--the underdog home team is desperate for a breakthrough win, and they probably need some help from the favored road team to get it done. But if the favorite does them some favors early, then confidence and momentum can lead the underdog to a win. It annoys me because if Missouri does lose this game, I know we'll see the Tim Griffin's of the world immediately breaking out the "Same Old Missouri" talk, when really a) Missouri has had about one true letdown game (Iowa State 2006) in the last 4+ seasons (I don't count OSU and KU of last year because they were both solid teams, and I don't count New Mexico in 2005 because...well, I'm pretty sure UNM was actually better than Missouri in 2005), and b) every team in the country has had at least one letdown game in that time. Old perceptions die hard, I guess, but if Missouri loses this one, it won't so much be "same old Missouri" as "team that's simply too young not to face some setbacks." At least, that's the situation in my own opinion.

The numbers say Missouri by 5.6 points in this one. Honestly, I don't see that happening. I either see Missouri winning big (17+), or Nevada winning a tight one. But I am made the fool when I go against the stats, so we'll say Missouri wins 34-28 in this one.

Nevada at Notre Dame Preview: Don't Turn Your Back On The Wolf Pack

CW — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 13:00:20 -0000

I was chatting with my dad on the drive home from work earlier in the week and we started talking about the upcoming football season. I was telling him how I can't imagine the Irish going 3-0 because that would make me too happy and the pitfalls were too varied to avoid tripping up once.

"Who do you start with again?"

"Nevada, at Michigan and Michigan State."

There was a pause from my dad, who was always a big Penn State/Big Ten fan before I started attending Notre Dame.

"You're not worried about losing to Nevada, are you?"

I couldn't express to him how much I was concerned about losing to Nevada. Or how a 14.5 point line seems a bit too high (at least half a point too high, Vegas is certainly not being generous, so they're just taking advantage of Irish fans who would trust this team to cover that.) Or how poorly Notre Dame played last year against a horrid San Diego State team that would get its skull crushed in by the Wolf Pack. Or for as well as Notre Dame played against Hawaii (a team that Nevada lost to last year, for what is worth), they still put together a pretty miserable November, and yes, as excited as I am for this season, this is not an easy notch in the ol' win column (not that such a thing exists for the Irish at this point).

Let us go over the two biggest reasons for my concern. The first is a 6' 6" genetically-engineered, football-playing gazelle who lines up at quarterback in the pistol formation. Junior Colin Kaepernick, reigning WAC Offensive Player of the Year and Chicago Cubs draft pick, burst onto the national scene his freshman season during a Sunday night game against the Broncos of Boise State. Despite it being his first collegiate start, Kaepernick went blow for blow with Ian Johnson and company, finally falling in the fourth overtime 69-67 in one of the most ridiculously enjoyable games you could ever watch. Kaepernick has not slowed down since that opening performance where he tossed three touchdowns (to no interceptions) and ran for two more, and he - depending on the health of Jake Locker and the situation at Southern Cal - will most likely be the best quarterback the Irish face all season.

Kaepernick is scary anecdotally and mathematically. Just do some cruising on YouTube - I will do it for you, here and here and here - and then put your nerdz cap on and take a gander at this:

Colin Kaepernick was far and away the most effective rushing quarterback in 2008. Combined with a strong backfield mate in Vai Taua (17th among RBs in POE) and the best play-fake this writer has ever seen, Kaepernick has some dangerous weapons at his disposal in 2009. If Nevada can find a decent receiver to replace the steady Marko Mitchell, the Wolf Pack could be scary.

Isn't that nice? Speaking of Vai Taua, he rushed for 1,521 yards last year, and he has pretty steep competition for best back on the team from Luke Lippincott. Lippincott was the WAC leading rusher in 2007 with 1,420 yards and 18 total touchdowns before missing the majority of last season with a knee injury. If the Irish frontline isn't ready for a steady dose of Kaepernick left, Taua right and Lippincott up the middle, it's going to be a long day in South Bend for Tenuta's boys. Notre Dame gets to see the option every year with the Midshipmen, but Chris Ault's read option is a slightly different beast.

On the other side of the ball, Nevada brings back the only double-digit sack tandem in the nation in Dontay Moch (11.5) and Kevin Basped (10). The Nevada coaching staff plans on rotating in a lot of guys to keep their studs fresh, but we know who the best two are because they've got the sweet nickname:

That and the give-and-take the Bash Brothers, the duo's self-appointed nickname, give each other during games.

"If one of us gets a sack, we'll go, 'Hey, it's your turn now,'" Moch said. "We do compete a little, because I want that top notch at the end of the year."

Granted, you get a lot of sack opportunities when the other team is throwing on your every play (more on that in just a moment), but Moch and Basped took advantage of those opportunities. Anchoring the defensive backfield and causing problems for Jimmy if he decides to bust out the sex cannon instead of throwing it to open receivers is Jonathon Amaya, who was the leading tackler for the Wolf Pack last year in addition to collecting four picks and six pass break-ups.

Holding everything together is middle linebacker Mike Bethea, who will share traffic control duties on defense with Amaya. Bethea is a junior college transfer that played outside linebacker last year but has moved inside with the departure of Joshua Mauga, who was just waived by the Jets. We keep hearing about the massive experience on the offensive line, so this will be a great early test for the Young/Duncan combination. It is important that the Irish protect Jimmy, because good Lord almighty, the Nevada pass defense is atrocious. Matt went over how bad the Wolf Pack was against the pass last year earlier in the week, but I think it is really worth looking at again, because these numbers are not great:

Pass Attempts Against Per Game- 38.9 (5th most in the nation)

Pass Completions Against Per Game- 20.8 (18th most in the nation)

Completion % Against- 53.56 (24th BEST in the nation)

Yards Per Completion- 14.95 (Worst in the nation)

Yards Per Attempt- 8.01 (12th worst in the nation)

Passing TDs Against- 31 (7th worst in the nation)

Passing Yards Per Game Against- 311.62 (Worst in the nation)

Plays defended per game- 67.9 (68th most in the nation)

% of plays defended that are rushing- 42.7% (2nd lowest in the nation)

% of plays defended that are passing- 57.3% (2nd highest in the nation)

Pass Eff. Defense- 134.74 (85th in the nation)

% of Attempts Picked Off- 3.16% (59th in the nation)

% of Opponents Dropbacks that ended in a sack- 6.81% (42nd in the nation)

While I know there may be some segments of the fanbase who won't consider this game a success unless we rush thirty-plus times, I think the basic game plan should revolve around getting Jimmy some protection and then running Golden and Michael past Nevada's defensive backs and throwing to them. If you want to mix in some screens, or the occasional power I or maybe some nice tosses to Kyle Rudolph, fine, but I think Weis should just go with the BYU 2005 gameplan until the Wolf Pack proves they can stop the passing attack.

On defense, the Irish are going to have to focus on corralling young Mr. Kaepernick, the first elite-type mobile quarterback they've faced in a couple years. Minter's defense had no idea how to cope with a quarterback that could run and throw, and the Tenuta/Brown combination hasn't really been tested yet. If I had to predict, I would think that all the speed and athleticism would cause this Irish defense to match up well, but we're not going to know until the play-actioning and mad-cap quarterback scrambles/sprints-to-the-endzone start.

When you look at the results from the Wolf Pack's games last season, you can see why Notre Dame is a pretty healthy two touchdown favorite, but if the Irish stall coming out of the gate (which happened quite frequently last season), it wouldn't be surprising to see them get into a quick hole, because while they have their issues, the Wolf Pack can straight-up score. I just keep seeing a hectic Kaepernick touchdown run, followed by a pick six on the ensuing drive and a stunned Notre Dame Stadium crowd staring at a 14-0 hole and a "We can do this!" Nevada sideline. This Irish team has the talent to play with anyone, but the opening game against the Wolf Pack will be a very solid first test to see if they have the execution.

I hate doing keys to the game, because they're always just variations on the same half dozen things, but if Jimmy just keeps his cool and takes what the Nevada secondary is giving him(because unless things drastically changed, it should be like Christmas morning downfield), I think the Irish stroll into Ann Arbor 1-0. This is going to be a fun shootout and a great first game for Charlie Weis' 2009 make-or-break season, but in no way is it a gimme.

Boise State 2009 opponent preview: Nevada

Kevan Lee — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 20:39:11 -0000

Projected Record: 7-5 overall, 5-3 conference
At-a-glance: Nevada is a darkhorse for being a BCS buster this season. Really? Are we talking about the same Nevada? A spotty defense, suspect special teams, and the crushing reality of being Nevada will sink the Wolf Pack. Until Nevada proves consistent as a team, there's no reason to pick them anywhere else than the middle tier of the WAC.

We've come to the opponent preview where I finally stop belittling fellow WAC teams. Or do I?

Common sense would have me shaking in my Marty Tadman jersey at this year's rendition of the Pack. Kaepernick, Moch, Basped? Oh my! But then again, weren't all those guys on the team last year? Wasn't the Boise State - Nevada game two pick-sixes away from a yawner? Aren't I humanly incapable of showing respect for another conference team?

Yes to all those questions. And no to Nevada knocking the Broncos off their WAC pedestal this season.

Wins in 2008:	7
Pythagorean Wins in 2008:	7.3
Translation:	Nevada was pretty much only seven-wins good
Returning starters:	Offense: 7, Defense:7
Strength of Schedule:	94
Recruiting ranking 2005-2009:	106, 82, 105, 109, 108 (nat'l ranking from Scout.com)
WAC recruiting ranking 2005-2009:	7, 3, 7, 6, 7

Five Questions

Is the Wolf Pack the new archenemy of Boise State?

It is beginning to look that way. Certainly, they have been more competitive in recent years than Idaho or Fresno State, although the Vandals will always hold a special place (meant reverentially and retardedly) in the hearts of Bronco fans. Hawaii was fun for awhile. SJSU is fun for about a week every year. But Nevada has really taken the mantle of most loathsome team on the conference calendar.

Certainly, they are the ones most likely to give the Broncos a run for their money. Speaking of running, anyone else think Colin Kaepernick looks like a robot ostrich?

Why should I think that Nevada's secondary is going to be any different this year?

Well last year, the Pack was private-Methodist-school-intramurals terrible at defending the pass, to the tune of No. 120 (dead last) in the NCAA and 320 yards per game.

Enter ... nobody.

Chris Ault promises that defense will be a priority starting now. Yes, he's been coaching 24 years. But when you witness an apocalypse like Nevada's pass D in 2008, you're liable to try a bunch of things you previously thought were pointless. Nevada has the players to put pressure on the quarterbacks, so if they can find a handful of players who can stay in the general vicinity of wide receivers, you'd have to think they can improve on last year's result. If not, expect Ault to break with tradition again and start recruiting defensive players.

Since passing isn't Kaepernick's specialty, what's stopping the Wolf Pack from running the ball on every down?

Nothing really. They have the reigning WAC leading rusher in Vai Taua. They have the former reigning WAC leading rusher in Luke Lippincott. They have three linemen returning from last year's 290 yards-per-game offense. By the looks of things, this Nevada team could win half of its WAC games without even putting the ball in the air. They are basically a service academy, minus America respecting them.

Another reason to keep it on the ground is the loss of leading receivers Marko Mitchell and Mike McCoy. The wide receivers for UNR are rather green. Junior Chris Wellington is the most well-known holdover, and he managed 632 and six TDs last season. Kaepernick can make plays happen with his feet, but someone is going to have to be able to catch the long bombs and close range missiles he fires willy-nilly on the move. That is, if Ault even bothers calling a passing play.

Boise State's been amped about the Oregon game since January. Is the same true for UNR and Notre Dame?

Since I don't live in Reno (thank GOODNESS), I can't say for sure, but I've heard that Pack fans have extremely high hopes for this Notre Dame showdown. Are Nevada fans expecting a win? Many of them are. At the very least, they are expecting Kaepernick to really make an impression on the national television audience and Tom Hammond. It's not a make-or-break game for Nevada, but if they get past Notre Dame, they'll be getting a lot of attention in the coming weeks.

What is the Achille's heel of Nevada?

Well besides pass defense, WR depth, and the innate ability to lose at least one game they should win, the Wolf Pack are not very good on special teams. Phil Steele ranked Nevada No. 112, 99, 71, 99, and 94 over the past five years, and with the Wolf Pack losing kicker Brett Jaekle, special teams could be another adventure in 2009. Especially if the Pack recruited this kid:

Schedule around the Boise State game

11/14 Fresno State
11/21 @ NMSU
11/27 @ Boise State
End of Season

By the Numbers

190 - difference between Nevada's average rush yards and that of their opponents
7-0 - Nevada's record when holding teams under 35 points
0-6 - Nevada's record when teams score more than 35 points

I've had a lot of fun with this preview, but now it's time to get serious. My feelings about the Nevada Wolf Pack are probably a lot more tempered than those that you would find a lot of other places. People are gushing over Nevada's skill players, and with good reason. The Wolf Pack is a good team with a playmaking quarterback and strong running backs who will succeed behind a talented offensive line. Plus, their defense has a smattering of studs, and they are coached by a Hall of Famer.

On top of all this, the prospect of facing the Wolf Pack on the football field frightens me a little. Even after witnessing the Broncos completely shut down the UNR offense for three quarters last season, I don't look forward to a more experienced Kaepernick and a well-oiled machine of an offense rolling into Boise in November.

To be sure, Nevada is gunning for the Broncos. And if I were writing a preview of the Nevada-Boise State game right now, I would be significantly more respectful and fearful.

But Nevada from a season-long perspective scares me a lot less than Nevada from a game-by-game perspective.

The perfect storm of offensive prowess and defensive okayness could come together for Nevada on any given week, but it won't come together for them on every given week. The pass defense is too bad to be consistent, even if they are improved over last year's simply horrendous unit. The special teams are capable of causing multiple losses on the year. Defenses will copy Boise State's blueprint for success against the Pistol, and the teams with good enough athletes will be able to shut that machine down.

Nevada could very well give the Broncos a run for their money in the de facto WAC championship in late November. However, I'd be surprised if the WAC championship hadn't already been decided.

Nevada is scary in small doses, but until they prove that they can string together a season of consistency, domination, and solid play on both sides of the ball, they are still Nevada - old, undependable, 7-5 Nevada.

Perfect Situation
Nevada turns into 2009's BCS buster by sweeping Notre Dame and Mizzou in nonconference, steamrolling the WAC on their way to a BCS bowl, and making life a living hell for Bronco fans

Reality
Nevada plays tough against Notre Dame and Missouri, loses both, drops one or two conference games before the BSU showdown, loses that one, goes to the New Mexico Bowl

Final Record
7-5 overall, 5-3 conference

Previous previews of 2009 opponents: Oregon. Miami (Ohio). Bowling Green. UC Davis. Tulsa. San Jose State. Utah State. Fresno State. NMSU. Hawaii. LaTech. Last one (appropriately): Idaho.

OBNUG's official WAC preseason poll

Kevan Lee — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 17:00:10 -0000

Now that the official preseason polls for the WAC have been released, there's no better time for your OBNUG editors to publish their picks. Well, I guess prior to the polls being released might have been a better time. But you get the idea.

Your participants in this abbreviated WAC preseason roundtable are OBNUG's Kevan and Drew. They will be represented by Waldorf and Statler, the two grumpy old men from the Muppets.

kevanlee FFBSU

Kevan: I believe that we should operate this preseason roundtable with the recognition that anything we say or do prior to the season starting means absolutely nothing and will inevitably be wrong. In other words, we are Mark May.

Personally, I think the WAC will be very fun to follow this season. There are a lot of teams I am anxious to see and a lot of players I'm anxious to libel. We have new coaches at Utah State and NMSU, a Nevada team with preseason hype, SRO on LaTech's bandwagon, suspiciously quiet Fresno State, the unintentional comedy of Idaho, and much, much more. Why isn't there an exclusive WAC channel, Karl Benson? Huh? Because you and I are the only ones who would watch? Really? Okay.

I think the clear-cut favorite is Boise State, and I say that with the blind fervor of a narcissistic Boise State fan. Bleed blue and homerism! But seriously, it would be downright institutional (the mental one, not the academic one) not to choose the Broncos. They have won the conference championship seven out of eight years. They went undefeated in the regular season last year. They have never lost a conference game at home. They have Kellsy. I have yet to see anyone pick against them, and I refuse to be the first. In fact, I am contractually obligated by Bronco Nation to be no higher than the 400,000th.

The real drama begins at spot number two. Here are the candidates I am open to discussing at that spot: everyone but Idaho and NMSU.

I'm leaning against picking Nevada that high if only because preseason faves in the WAC tend to fall pretty flat. I doubt Hawaii can muster No. 2 again, the second spot might be a reach for Utah State, I'm going to need to see Kyle Reed complete a pass on purpose before I put SJSU there. That leaves Louisiana Tech and Fresno State.

Seriously?

Well, I'm low on LaTech. (So's this guy.) And Fresno State doesn't have a quarterback.

Help.

Drew: If Boise State isn't the preseason favorite, then I'm a monkey's uncle...and while I'm fine being the uncle of a muskrat or badger...I'll be damned if I'll have a monkey in the family. I mean, look at the facts...Boise State has ran the conference table with lesser teams and I am still trying to figure out how teams will be able to run or pass against our defense. Kellen Moore is nigh unflappable and doesn't seem prone to a sophomore slump. I can't see how the Bronco O-line could fail to be better than last year and Jeremy Avery and DJ Harper should be a very solid one-two punch. Boise State doesn't have letdowns...and it would be a huge letdown to not win the title with the talent returning.

I'm finished wringing my hands about Fresno...they implode year in and year out, and with no QB to speak of, I find it hard to believe they will even win their usual spate of OOC games. Ryan Mathews is a good back, but as far as I can tell, he suffers from that same disease that Samuel L. Jackson had in Unbreakable. Fresno will be lucky to finish 4th this year, although not having the crushing weight of high expectations on them this year might cause them to overachieve...but I'm not holding my breath.

Nevada has to come to Boise to end the year and although Kaep and Co. can hang some points, they didn't show that much in Reno last year against the Broncos, and without Kellsy tossing 2 pick sixes in the 3rd quarter probably wouldn't have made Bronco Nation break a sweat. Unless UNR's defense has had a whole lot of hypnosis sessions with Luke Lippincott's dad, I don't think they'll challenge Boise State for the crown. Besides, Chris Ault's coaching will intervene in at least one conference game and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory against a team Nevada has no business losing to. They'll tie for second place with La Tech.

Derek Dooley and his Bulldogs seem to have everyone's panties in a twist this offseason. Maybe it is because they were the only WAC team to win their bowl game, or maybe it is just because the Broncos don't always play so well in Ruston. Last year, I really felt like Louisiana Tech was going to give us a much better game than they did...I don't see them being 35 points better than last year against a better Bronco D. They'll hang around for a while, but ultimately come up short (14-27 points short).

Beyond these top 4 it's a snooze fest. Utah State will be better, possibly locking down the 5th spot in the conference. Idaho and NMSU will be terrible as usual (NMSU moreso), and San Jose State will be worse than last year. Tomey's bunch has lost some of its bite of defense and their offense was horrendous last year (except when Jeron Johnson "stepped out" for a play).

Final Standings:

Boise State: 8-0
Nevada: 6-2
Louisiana Tech: 6-2
Fresno State: 5-3
Utah State: 4-4
Hawaii: 4-4
San Jose State: 3-5
Idaho: 2-6
NMSU: 0-8

Kevan: I appreciate your well-reasoned arguments. That said, I choose anarchy.

What's the fun of having a preseason poll if you can't throw common sense out the window and mess some junk up? I call it the Troy Oppie approach. However, instead of picking a traditional bottom dweller to finish second (Utah State), I'm picking a traditional underachiever: the San Jose State Spartans.

I realize that I said above that I wouldn't pick SJSU until Kyle Reed showed competence in the pocket. But then it hit me. Dick Tomey can just start somebody else. If the man survived the Great Flood, he can certainly find someone on his team to complete a post-corner. The rest of the pieces are there for SJSU. I am 65 percent confident of that.

Below the Spartans, I have to put Nevada. Packfan has compromising photos of me in a Fresno State t-shirt.

Speaking of the Bulldogs, I have them in the bottom half of the conference by virtue of my intense dislike of them. But I have actual reasoning, too. I don't see Fresno beating Boise State or Nevada, and I think LaTech and SJSU will give them a tough time. Utah State, a team that I think will be better and a team that should have beaten the Bulldogs last season, could very easily be Fresno's fifth conference loss in '09. Or it could be their fifth conference win. I really have no idea. I'm just guessing here.

And that's the beautiful thing about the WAC this year: Nobody knows. We are in the midst of one of the most competitive WAC seasons in ages. Take Idaho and NMSU out of the conversation (which I did, placing them at eighth and ninth) and you have seven very solid teams that all have the potential to be bowl eligible if the right pieces fall into place.

I like San Jose State and Utah State to surprise people this year. I like Hawaii and Fresno State to be worse than expected. I like Dairy Queen Blizzards. Here are my picks for the final 2009 WAC standings.

Boise State
San Jose State
Nevada
LaTech
Utah State
Fresno State
Hawaii
Idaho
NMSU

And come December, when seven out of the nine teams on this list are in the wrong place, just go back up to the start of this post and stop reading after the second paragraph.

I warned you.

Mizzou Links, 7-23-09

Bill C. — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 10:42:46 -0000

What kind of challenge awaits Jeremy Maclin in Philadelphia? The Trib connects to a Philly Daily News column to check things out.

Maclin has more of an adjustment than Jackson did because of the spread offense he played in at Missouri. (He also hasn’t signed a deal yet, which isn’t a concern until it is a concern; he does need to be here from the start.)

These are not small hurdles, and they are not questions that Reid will ever answer out loud. There will be only one way to tell what the coach really thinks, and to tell what kind of promise these rookies really have. One way: by counting the snaps, starting in September.

So it appears that Owasso (OK) DB Aaron Colvin a) enjoyed his trip to Columbia this week and b) will be deciding on a school this weekend. He's an Oklahoma kid with an Oklahoma offer, so naturally I think the odds are in OU's favor there, but we'll see.

And speaking of recruiting, here's yet another take on Anthony Gatti.

Mizzou Fan Day: August 9!

Continuing the ongoing series, PowerMizzou re-ranks the State of MO recruiting class of 2006. One guess who's #1...

Dave Matter continues his look at his own Top 25...nothing egregiously crazy yet, though I'd actually have Georgia higher.

ESPN's Bruce Feldman has an interesting (Insider) interview with The Man in Reno, Mr. Colin Kaepernick...

For people who haven't had the chance to see you play, who do you get compared to most?

Kaepernick: Most of the time, I get compared to Vince Young and Pat White. I think I can be a little different than them. I've really worked on my pocket passing. I'm hoping that shows this season, and I can separate myself from the "typical running quarterback."

Your teammate Luke Lippincott said the first time you came in the huddle, you were so quiet the other guys on the offense had to yell at you to speak up. How much do you think you've grown into the position?

Kaepernick: I think part of that is my confidence in myself and what I'm doing out there. The other part of that is I know that as a leader, I have to be vocal whether I want to be vocal or not, sometimes I have to be.

Finally...well...good for you, Chase, for getting out and about, but I'm thinking opposing fans might have a little fun with this....then again, I doubt you're losing too much sleep over that, huh?

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 14:00:19 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

After four games in 2009, Missouri could be 4-0, and they could be 2-2 (or, technically, worse). While Illinois is clearly the biggest name on the non-conference slate, the most interestingly challenging opponent will likely be Nevada. Never mind that it's a road game, far away, on a Friday night. And never mind how hypnotically good Colin Kaepernick looks for a handful of plays each game. Football is about matchups, and Nevada appears to match up quite well with a Missouri team full of different strengths and weaknesses than last year's squad. Let's take a look.

The best running QB in college football.

2008

Record: 7-6 (5-3 in WAC)
S&P+: 215.11 (#36)
Scoring Margin: 489-420 (+69)
Conference Scoring Margin: 320-234 (+86)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): Fresno State (#61), Louisiana Tech (#86), UNLV (#88), Utah State (#99), San Jose State (#101), Idaho (#119), Grambling State (N/A)
Losses: Boise State (#7), Missouri (#10), Texas Tech (#15), Maryland (#52), Hawaii (#53), New Mexico State (#111)

So...how good was Nevada in 2008? They played Texas Tech tough in Reno, and they almost completed a dramatic comeback in falling short to Boise State by a touchdown. They made mincemeat of a series of bad teams, and they looked alright against Maryland...

...but they didn't actually beat anybody good. Yes, Fresno State and Louisiana Tech were both bowl teams, and UNLV beat Arizona State, but none of those teams were in the upper half of the final S&P+ rankings. They ended up 2-4 versus teams with winning records and 5-2 versus teams that finished .500 or worse. And...New Mexico State? Really? At home? This was a team with star power in Colin Kaepernick and, to a lesser extent, Vai Taua and Marko Mitchell, and pretty strong lineplay as well; but the back seven--the LBs and DBs--let this team down considerably. For that matter, so did only recovering 15 of 46 fumbles. Luck could be on their side in 2009, but experienced defenders need to bring it.

Coaching

Head Coach: Chris Ault
Record at Nevada: 198-90-1
Pythagorean Record Since 2004: +0.29 wins (+0.6/year)

Mr. Nevada

I like the first line of Chris Ault's NevadaWolfpack.com bio: "Simply put, Chris Ault is University of Nevada football." In 24 seasons as coach of the Wolfpack (over three stints), Ault has managed 198 wins and a .687 win percentage. In the last 24 seasons of Nevada football without Ault leading the way (1961-75, 1993, 1996-2003), they've managed 116 wins and a .470 win percentage. If Kansas State fans want hope for the second Bill Snyder Administration, look to Ault's time in Reno (and not John Robinson's time at USC and UNLV, or Bill Walsh's second stay in Palo Alto).

Nevada has been to four straight bowls, and while they haven't beaten many big-name opponents (UNR hasn't actually beaten a BCS-conference team finishing with a winning record since their move to 1-A in 1992--really, a blemish on Ault's record), they win. And there's absolutely no question that Ault will have his boys ready to rock and roll on a Friday night, especially against a team that beat them by 52 points last year. It offers the perfect "hornet's nest" type of situation, in which a young BCS-conference team is ambushed by an experienced, angry non-BCS host.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+*: 113.3 (#30)
Success Rate+: 105.6 (#47)
PPP+: 123.6 (#22)

Standard Downs** S&P+: 107.8 (#44)
Passing Downs S&P+: 122.3 (#23)

Redzone S&P+: 112.8 (#33)

Q1 S&P+: 107.1 (#53)
Q2 S&P+: 107.6 (#49)
Q3 S&P+: 115.7 (#26)
Q4 S&P+: 117.8 (#22)

1st Down S&P+: 113.6 (#30)
2nd Down S&P+: 98.1 (#70)
3rd Down S&P+: 125.6 (#16)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 127.6 (#8)
Rushing SR+: 112.5 (#28)
Rushing PPP+: 150.76 (#6)

Standard Downs: 120.5 (#12)
Passing Downs: 133.2 (#20)

Redzone: 124.32 (#20)

Line Yards+: 116.3 (#15)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 99.6 (#63)
Passing SR+: 97.1 (#69)
Passing PPP+: 103.4 (#57)

Standard Downs: 90.7 (#87)
Passing Downs: 120.6 (#27)

Redzone: 92.9 (#73)

Adj. Sack Rate***: 4.4% (#30)

* The general S&P+ stat used is really the "Close-Game S&P+" stat you know and love. The definition of "close game" has been expanded (Close game = within 24 points in Q1, 21 in Q2, and 16 or less, i.e. two possessions, in the second half). So what that means is that junk time yards/points are not included in these numbers, nor should they be.

** "Standard Downs" = what used to be "Non-Passing Downs". Passing Downs are defined as follows: Second-and-8 or more, third-and-5 or more, fourth-and-5 or more. Anything less than that—any first down, second-and-7 or less, third-and-4 or less, fourth-and-4 or less—are considered Standard Downs because running and passing are more-or-less equal options.

*** Adjusted Sack Rate is a new creation. It simply looks at the average of the Standard Downs and Passing Downs sack rates. As you'll see, combined with Line Yards+, this will give you a pretty good read of O-line performance.

As you would figure from the stereotypical good running team that plays 4,500 feet above sea level, the 'Pack improved offensively as the game wore on, getting better in each progressive quarter. Overall, they hovered around 50th in the country in the first half, and about 24th in the second. They were solid in the red zone, solid on first downs, and great on third downs with the Kaepernick rushing threat, but they did have some distinct weaknesses. Marko Mitchell was a good WR, but the numbers suggest that Nevada's passing game didn't scare many people.

If the Wolfpack are going to become a team with "BCS buster" potential in 2009, Kaepernick has to find a good weapon to keep defenses honest in non-passing situations. Yes, he's great outside the pocket, and Nevada had some nice Passing Downs success thanks to the "Will he run or throw?" conundrum, but he can't do that every play, and UNR will need to figure out how to better avoid Passing Downs if they want to succeed at a very high level.

Quarterback

2008 Unit Ranking: #16 in the nation (#2 in the WAC)

Projected Depth Chart
Colin Kaepernick (6'6, 215, Jr.)
Tyler Lantrip (6'4, 220, So.)
Luke Collis (6'3, 210, So.)

One of the funnier moments of 2008 came when The Beef and I met with rptgwb and Uribe Auction (and, of course, MCboomofdoom) after last year's Mizzou-Nevada game to prepare for the postgame podcast. The first thing any of us could talk about was how amazing Colin Kaepernick was at the play-fake. When you expect him to run the ball at pretty much all times, and he still fools you when he keeps it, you know he's got a good fake going. Combine that with the fact that his legs are about six feet long and he reaches full speed in about two steps, and you've got one of the scarier runners from the quarterback position in college football. In fact, looking at Points Over Expected (POE--a figure we will become much more familiar with later on), he was the #1 rushing QB in college football last year.

Kaepernick's rushing ability, combined with his skill on passing downs, made Nevada's offense a major threat to score at pretty much any moment in 2008. But they didn't score at any moment. Why? Because they weren't the best at staying out of Passing Downs. It doesn't matter how good you are in Passing Downs--your odds are still better in Standard Downs, and the more Passing Downs you face, the more likely you are to fail even if you pull off a few great drive-saving plays. The Standard Downs success must improve.

Kaepernick missed spring practices while rehabbing a minor ankle injury. Backups Tyler Lantrip and Luke Collis both improved tremendously as the spring progressed, and both should be competent should anything happen to #10. That said, it's safe to say that neither can run (or play-fake) like Kaepernick, and if Nevada's beating Mizzou, it's probably not going to be with Lantrip or Collis on the field.

Running Backs

2008 Unit Ranking: #38 in the nation (#3 in the WAC)

Projected Depth Chart
Vai Taua (5'10, 225, Jr.)
Luke Lippincott (6'2, 215, Sr.)
Brandon Fragger (5'9, 195, Sr.)

That's Taua at the bottom. Okay, that was mean...

Here's Taua upright. He rushed for 100 yards seven times in 2008, including a combined 423 against Hawaii and Fresno State.

Few teams in the country are more experienced at running back than the Wolfpack will be in 2009. Vai Taua rushed for 1,521 yards in 2008 (6.4 per carry) as a sophomore, and he will return as the #1 guy. But meanwhile, #2 man Luke Lippincott was recently granted medical hardship year and will return in 2009 having rushed for 1,420 yards in 2007 before being sidelined with a knee injury. They have 633 career carries, pretty good for a 1-2 combination. Then, #3 man Brandon Fragger brings an extra 800 career rushing yards (and 22 receptions) to the table. Combined with Kaepernick's rushing prowess, this turns into a super-powered backfield; for comparison, Missouri fans should think of the Corby-Olivo-Blackwell-West combination of the late-1990s. All four runners have the potential to average over six yards a pop.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Wellington is Kaepernick's only proven weapon returning at WR.

2008 Unit Ranking: #32 in the nation (#3 in the WAC)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Chris Wellington (6'1, 185, Jr.)
Brandon Wimberly (6'3, 195, RSFr.)
Tray Session (6'3, 175, So.)
Maurice Patterson (6'3, 200, Jr.)
Malcolm Shepherd (6'3, 210, Jr.)
Dwayne Sanders (5'10, 175, Sr.)
L.J. Washington (6'0, 195, Fr.)
Arthur King (6'1, 195, Sr.)
Shane Anderson (6'1, 205, So.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Virgil Green (6'5, 225, Jr.)
Kevin Bohr (6'3, 240, Sr.)
Talaiasi Puloka (6'4, 240, Sr.)

If Mizzou can shut down the run, they should be in good shape in the desert on the last Friday of September. As inexperienced as Mizzou's secondary may end up, with a new CB starter opposite Carl Gettis, a sophomore leader in Kenji Jackson, and at least potentially a new starting safety in Jarrell Harrison (if he overtakes Hardy Ricks...and I hope he does), Nevada's receiving corps is equally inexperienced. Removing the 115 catches, 1,761 yards, and 12 touchdowns that Marko Mitchell and Mike McCoy brought to the table last year, all that's left is Chris Wellington (42 for 632 and 6 TDs), TE Virgil Green (13 for 136, 1 TD), and Arthur King (10 for 96). The Wolfpack have a lot of hope pinned to redshirt freshman Brandon Wimberley, who had a wonderful year on the scout team and looked good in the spring. If he and Wellington can approximate Mitchell and McCoy, the Nevada passing attack may be good enough to keep defenses from keying on the run.

Really, though, Wellington and Wimberly need to be better than Mitchell and McCoy. Again, Nevada's Standard Downs passing attack was simply not good enough to take out the big boys (Texas Tech, Missouri, Boise State) on the schedule last year. For the Wolfpack to take out Notre Dame or Missouri, they're going to need some extreme reliability from one of these guys. The sky's the limit if Wimberly turns out to be the real deal, though.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #8 in the nation (#1 in the WAC)

Projected Depth Chart
T Alonzo Durham (6'4, 285, Sr.)
T Mike Gallett (6'6, 295, Jr.)
G John Bender (6'8, 325, Jr.)
C Kenneth Ackerman (6'4, 280, Sr.)
G Chris Barker (6'4, 315, RSFr.)
G Aminiasi Silatolu (6'4, 295, Jr.)
T Steve Haley (6'5, 305, So.)
C Jeff Meads (6'3, 290, So.)
G Steve Werner (6'5, 310, RSFr.)
T Jose Acuna (6'6, 308, Jr.)

Durham's not oversized, but he's one of the WAC's best.

Missouri's defense got a lot of crap last year, and a lot of it was completely deserved. But they faced a murderous set of offenses in 2008, and few had better offensive lines than Nevada did. For them to hold Taua and Fragger to just 76 yards on 20 carries was extremely impressive, as was Mizzou's holding the overall UNR attack to just a 0.713 S&P. Unfortunately for Mizzou, their own defensive line is a lot less experienced in 2009, while Nevada's offensive line should be as good or better. Their 62 returning career starts rank them third in the WAC, and they've got 2-3 all-conference candidates in Alonzo Durham, Mike Gallett, and gigantic John Bender. We're all high on the threesome of Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter; well, Durham and Gallett will make up one of the better pairs of tackles Mizzou will face this year.

Summary

We'll discuss Nevada's defense tomorrow, and there are plenty of concerns and holes there. But this offense is extremely experienced, and while their inconsistency on Standard Downs is a concern for them (and an opportunity for Missouri), Nevada's going to score some points. The defense isn't great, but they'll have some leeway in that their offense will be putting up plenty of scores in the 30s and 40s in 2009. Chris Ault is renowned as one of the most innovative offensive minds in college football, and he will have one of the nation's best running attacks at his disposal, but if they're going to not only beat Missouri but challenge Boise State for a potential BCS slot, a go-to receiver will need to emerge, and, let's face it, Kaepernick's passing will need to improve. He's not a terrible passer by any means, and the threat of his legs give him leeway, but he is not the most efficient passer in the world, and hopefully Mizzou can force the Wolfpack into plenty of Passing Downs situations.

Mizzou-Nevada: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 16:30:04 -0000

It's Thursday, so you know what that means...BTBS Day!! At some point in the season, I'll be able to start using 2008 '+' numbers, but the +'s need quite a decent sample size to be even remotely accurate, so for now I'm still going with the "2007 #'s + adjustments" method.

Mizzou-Nevada Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
Nevada Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 10.78
Projection #1: 19.27
Nevada Rushing Defense EqPts+: 132.50
2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
Projection #2: 12.23

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 15.75

Adjusted for 2008: 19.00 (Washington > Temple in my eyes, and if Nevada sells out to stop the pass, look out.)

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
Nevada Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 11.41
Projection #1: 17.06
Nevada Passing Defense EqPts+: 126.17
2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
Projection #2: 14.58

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 15.82

Adjusted for 2008: 19.00 (Mizzou's offense is harder to stop than Texas Tech because of both the running game and the use of tight ends. Tech may have a Jeremy Maclin equivalent--okay, better--in Michael Crabtree, but they don't have a Chase Coffman equivalent.)

Nevada Rushing

Nevada Rushing Offense EqPts+: 133.67
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
Projection #1: 11.08
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
Nevada Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 14.49
Projection #2: 9.53

Projected Nevada Rushing Output: 10.31

Adjusted for 2008: 7.00 (So far, Mizzou's been sturdy against the run, and combined with the loss of Luke Lippincott, UNR should find it hard to move the ball on the ground.)

Nevada Passing

Nevada Passing Offense EqPts+: 126.17
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
Projection #1: 15.32
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
Nevada Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 12.58
Projection #2: 8.92

Projected Nevada Passing Output: 12.12

Adjusted for 2008: 14.00 (Nevada's passing game is inconsistent, but pretty decent at the deep ball. Until Mizzou slows down a passing game, we have to give the edge to the opponent here.)

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 38, Nevada 21

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 41, Nevada 17

Special Teams

Nevada K Brett Jaekle is pretty decent. He missed two FGs last week, but he went 16-for-21 last year and is a decent option. New punter Brad Langley has done a bang-up job so far, averaging 46.9 yards per punt. One problem, though: in two games, Nevada's had a punt blocked and a punt returned for TD. You don't want to have weaknesses in your punting game when you come to Columbia. The return game for Nevada has been more or less a wash this year so far--Dwayne Sanders hasn't had many opportunities to return punts, and Brandon Fragger's been decent but not spectacular in a handful of kickoff returns. Two problems: 1) Nevada's settling for too many FGs (I'll address that below), and 2) Jeremy Maclin returns punts for Mizzou.

And once again, Mizzou has Jeff Wolfert--Nevada doesn't. Never in my life have I taken a 45-yard FG for granted (KNOCK ON WOOD), but that's where we've gotten with Wolfert.

Key Players: Nevada

QB Colin Kaepernick

I hate being predictable, but you have to put Kaepernick at the top of the list. Luke Lippincott is out, and while Nevada's other RBs--Vai Taua, Brandon Fragger--are at the very least competent (Taua might eventually turn out to be as productive as Lippincott), LL's absence does put more pressure on Kaepernick to create on his own. So far he's responded with decent stats--386 passing yards, 143 rushing yards in two games--but he needs to step up his game against the best team on Nevada's schedule. Also, after committing next to no turnovers last year, Kaepernick has three in the first two games of the year--2 INTs and 1 fumble. Missouri's given up quite a few yards so far this year, but if Kaepernick is careless with the ball, Mizzou is more than capable of making him pay.

One other thing--Nevada had numerous chances deep in Texas Tech territory and wasn't able to punch the ball into the endzone, with or without Lippincott. They attempted SIX FG's against Tech, and as was discussed in the offseason, settling for FGs against Mizzou = slow death. It's up to Kaepernick to will the ball into the endzone, and he hasn't proven he can do that consistently against a decent defense yet this year.

WR Marko Mitchell

The key to keeping up with Mizzou, other than not settling for FGs, will be scoring as many easy points as possible--long plays, turnovers, etc. For the "long plays" part of that equation, it's all about Marko Mitchell. Mitchell was a fantastic deep threat last year, and this year has been more of the same so far--in basically 1.5 games against Texas Tech and Grambling, Mitchell has 12 catches for a 16.3-yard average and 1 TD. Aside from maybe a Kaepernick scramble on a broken play, Mitchell represents Nevada's best chance at easy points, and he'll have to come up big at least twice for Nevada to have a chance.

OT's Mike Gallett and Alonzo Durham

Texas Tech racked up four sacks last week. Missouri racked up 5 sacks (four from the DEs) against a mobile QB in Juice Williams. While Mizzou's blitzing has been entirely ineffective, Stryker Sulak and Tommy Chavis are poised for a big game if the O-line--the OT's in particular--can slow them down. SEMO thrived in the "quick delivery" department, and Mizzou's pass rush was somehow held in check last week, but I don't expect that to happen again.

FS Uche Anyanwu

Anyanwu had a solid game against Tech, with 6 tackles and 1 TFL. He and CB Antoine Thompson--3 pass break-ups last week--are the biggest playmakers in Nevada's secondary, and a lot will be expected of them if Mizzou is going to be held under 5 TDs. I was going to put LB Josh Mauga here because of his blitzing prowess, but...well, until given a reason to, I just don't fear other teams' blitzes. It's all on Nevada's secondary to make plays...or at least not miss any tackles.

Key Players: Missouri

TE Chase Coffman

I'm putting him here because of what I said during the score projections. Nevada was able to bump Texas Tech's WRs and confuse Graham Harrell into a 19-for-46 performance. Aside from two plays, they held Michael Crabtree in check (unfortunately for the Wolfpack, those two plays went for 50 and 82 yards...ouch). If they choose to give Jeremy Maclin the Crabtree Treatment, they can limit his effectiveness too. Combined with tight, bumping coverage of the other receivers, you'd think Nevada would have a pretty good recipe for physically defending the spread.

Only...Mizzou doesn't mind physical. They'll just throw to Chase Coffman 12 times, and...

RB Derrick Washington

...give Derrick Washington 15-20 carries. Washington is a strong, physical runner, and he and Coffman are the two reasons I just can't really fear any specific defensive strategy.

CB Castine Bridges

S Delstin Garward (Justin Garrett + Del Howard)

Here's what I said about Nevada's passing game back in June:

On non-passing downs, Nevada isn't very aggressive in the passing game--their 0.865 Passing S&P is lower than the national 0.884 and disproportionately lower than a lot of their numbers compared to the national average. However, on passing downs, it appears they go deep...a lot. Their success rate isn't that much higher than normal on passing downs, but when they connect, it's a huge play. Their 0.862 Passing S&P on passing downs has got to be one of the higher numbers in the country.

Two things concern me about this: 1) Mizzou was having Castine Bridges give a massively soft cushion on SEMO WRs last week. Maybe that changes this week, but if not, Nevada's horizontal passing game on non-passing downs could find all sorts of dink-and-dunk success against the Mizzou secondary, namely Bridges. So that's why Bridges is on there.

As for Garrett/Howard...well, if it's a passing down, chances are good that Mizzou's blitzing. And if they're blitzing, chances are good that they're sending William Moore. So that leaves Delstin Garward as the last line of defense...a role not filled very capably against Illinois.

Summary

Nevada is capable of scoring some points, and they've got enough physical guys on defense that they can wear you down if you let them. Their combination of dink-and-dunk prowess on non-passing downs and deep-ball prowess on passing downs has me a bit worried. I think Nevada will put up some yards. But let's go with the Star Factor here.

Nevada's Stars

Colin Kaepernick
Marko Mitchell
Joshua Mauga (potentially)

Missouri's Stars

Chase Daniel
Derrick Washington
Jeremy Maclin (the receiver)
Jeremy Maclin (the kick returner)
Chase Coffman
Colin Brown
Stryker Sulak
Ziggy Hood
Sean Weatherspoon
William Moore
Carl Gettis
Jeff Wolfert

Missouri is giving up too many yards, and I expect that to continue somewhat on Saturday. But they've just got too many playmakers. I think the BTBS projection (41-17) may be just about dead on with this one, but until someone holds Mizzou under 52, I'm going with the trend*.

* Two times = trend, right?

My Prediction: Missouri 52, Nevada 17.

Poll

The BTBS Projection says Mizzou 41, Nevada 17 (which just so happens to be about where the betting line is). I didn't want to more-or-less duplicate a poll at Mizzourah, but...well...

25-point margin = too high. This one's going to be a battle.

27 votes

25-point margin = too low. Nevada simply can't keep up.

61 votes

88 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Luke Lippincott

Can the Boise State defense slow down the Nevada running game?

Nevada on offense

Boise State on defense

What Boise State might do to stop the Wolf Pack

Your turn

Mizzou-Nevada: Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou(31)

Nevada(21)

Reactions

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Nevada Preview

Nevada at Notre Dame Preview: Don't Turn Your Back On The Wolf Pack

Boise State 2009 opponent preview: Nevada

Five Questions

Schedule around the Boise State game

By the Numbers

OBNUG's official WAC preseason poll

Mizzou Links, 7-23-09

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

2008

Coaching

Offense

Quarterback

Running Backs

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Summary

Mizzou-Nevada: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

The BTBS Projection says Mizzou 41, Nevada 17 (which just so happens to be about where the betting line is). I didn't want to more-or-less duplicate a poll at Mizzourah, but...well...

25-point margin = too high. This one's going to be a battle.

25-point margin = too low. Nevada simply can't keep up.

Mizzou
(31)

Nevada
(21)