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Will Boise State make a clean sweep of WAC awards?

Kevan Lee — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 15:55:15 -0000

2 months ago: Bowling Green quaterback Tyler Sheehan (13) is sacked by Boise State's Ryan Winterswyk (98) while Bowling Green's Brady Minturn (70) is late with the block during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009, in Bowling Green, Ohio. (AP Photo/J.D. Pooley)

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Award season is just around the corner, and after this week's games, the WAC will be naming its players of the year and coach of the year. Does Boise State deserve to sweep the awards?

After the jump, take a look at how each award race is shaping up and share your comments on how likely a Bronco sweep would be.

Offensive Player of the Year

Candidates

Kellen Moore
QB Colin Kaepernick, Nevada
RB Ryan Mathews, Fresno State

The race for this year's WAC OPOY has been eerily reminiscent of those maddening JumboTron plane/waterboat/car races they have at sporting events. One minute the red one is the lead. The next minute, it's the yellow one. Would someone please just end the thing so that we can all mentally prepare for the hidden-ball-in-helmet video?

Mathews was the overwhelming favorite for this award at the season's halfway point, but as is Mathews M.O., he got injured and has fallen behind. Next in line was Kaepernick who spearheaded a revitalized Nevada team as it ran off eight straight wins. However, it appears that the player with the most momentum at the end of the season is Moore, who clearly outdueled Kaepernick in the de facto WAC championship.

The favorite? Moore. It would be an abomination if anyone other than Moore took home OPOY honors. In other words, it would be a lot like last year.

(Note: All three players should return next year, providing quite the hype-fest for Karl Benson and the WAC. Has he already printed the media guide cover?)

Defensive Player of the Year

Candidates

Ryan Winterswyk
DT D'Anthony Smith, Louisiana Tech
LB Ben Jacobs, Fresno State
S Shiloh Keo, Idaho
DE Dontay Moch, Nevada

Out of the three WAC awards, I think this one will be the closest one to call. Each of the above four players has had a special season. Idaho's Keo is second in the WAC in tackles and has been the sole playmaker on a much-improved Vandal defense. Jacobs has been an animal, recording 82 tackles, 3 FFs, 3 FRs, and two blocked kicks; plus, the WAC loves choosing linebackers (see Solomon Elimimian last year). Smith is the most NFL-ready defensive player in the conference, and while his numbers aren't outstanding, his impact certainly has been. Moch leads the conference in TFLs and is in the top three in sacks.

And then there's Winterswyk. He currently leads the WAC in sacks (8.0) and sits second in TFLs (15). He has been a disruptive force all season long, hassling quarterbacks and stuffing the run. Has he been Boise State's best defensive player this season? I would say yes. And in a year when there is no clear-cut player deserving of WAC DPOY, wouldn't it make sense to choose the best player on the conference's best defense?

The Statesman unveiled its choices for WAC awards this week, and they come to a different conclusion than I did.

Boise State cornerback Kyle Wilson is the choice in a year without a dominant player. Wilson is an All-American whose production - three interceptions, two pass breakups, two touchdowns - doesn't show his true value.

Do you think Wilson has played better than Winterswyk this season?

Personally, I think that Wilson had a better 2008. Anyone who says that teams do not throw Wilson's way this season is absolutely wrong. Teams most certainly throw his way, and he has been surprisingly undisciplined with penalties and tackling at times this year. Don't get me wrong. Wilson is still an all-time great Bronco. I just don't see him deserving DPOY honors this season.

If we're talking about who is more valuable to the Broncos' defense, then I think Wilson might win. But as far as the player who has had the better season, I think that player is Winterswyk.

Is there another player on the Boise State defense you think has had a better year? Jeron Johnson? Billy Winn?

Coach of the Year

Candidates

Coach Pete
Robb Akey
Chris Ault

The only reason I listed Ault above is that I can see some people giving him credit for bringing Nevada out of that 0-3 hole and running off eight straight wins. That said, I think the discussion is really between Robb Akey and Coach Pete.

But really, should it even be a discussion? No doubt Akey worked some miracles with the Vandals this year in bringing them to 7-5. However, he lost his team's three biggest games and only won one out of five games after becoming bowl eligible against a weak schedule. The Vandals lost by double-digits to the conference's three best teams, giving up 133 points combined to Nevada and Boise State. And to put the cherry on top, Idaho dropped its season finale at home against a three-win Utah State.

On the other hand, Coach Pete has gone undefeated with the youngest team in the country.

If the WAC is serious about awarding COY to the coach who had done the best job this season, the award will go to Coach Pete. Year in and year out, he pulls off an incredible job, and it would be a shame if he is punished for his consistency.

(Note: I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the turnaround that Hawaii's Greg McMackin has done with the Warriors. The season could not have started worse for UH - McMackin's homophobic/apologetic blunder at media days, the Warriors' 2-6 start, the loss of their starting quarterback. But four straight wins, including a victory over Navy, has Hawaii on the cusp of a bowl. Who would have thought that was possible a month ago?)

Your turn

Who do you think will win this season's WAC awards? Share your winners in the comments. Also, please weigh in on who you think has had the better season: Ryan Winterswyk or Kyle Wilson.

Game balls for Boise State versus Nevada

Kevan Lee — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 16:07:39 -0000

More photos » by Matt Cilley - AP

21 days ago: Boise State's Doug Martin (22) rushes for a first down past Nevada's Jonathon Amaya (49) during the second half of their NCAA college football game on Friday, Nov. 27, 2009 in Boise, Idaho. BSU went on to win 44-33. (AP Photo/Matt Cilley)

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Boise State showed a lot of heart and determination in Friday's win over Nevada, as the Broncos overcame several key injuries and one of the best teams on their schedule for a 44-33 victory.

Who took home a game ball from the win? I'll hand out a few after the jump, and I encourage you to add your own winners in the comments.

Readers' choice award for player of the game

Doug Martin

For the second week in a row, Martin won player of the game honors from OBNUG readers, thanks to his 110-yard second half and the slightly embarrassing man crush that Bronco Nation currently has on him. What can I say? Bronco fans heart exciting running backs, and Martin is exciting in a pressurized-air-keyboard-cleaner kind of way.

The only thing left between Martin and Bronco immortality is for the Idaho Statesman to demand its readers to come up with a nickname for the rushing duo of Martin and Jeremy Avery. Because that worked so well last time for the Boise State defense.

Gameplan of the game

Justin Wilcox

Coach Pete said it himself after the game: "Wilcox for president." And while I would need to look at Wilcox's stance on capital punishment and nationwide sidewalk infrastructure, I tend to agree with Coach Pete. Justin Wilcox for president, Bryan Harsin for vice, and Paul J. Schneider for surgeon general.

Wilcox's gameplan against Nevada was as solid as last year's, but it was also different enough that the Wolf Pack couldn't simply plan for what they had seen before. The Broncos still used defensive backs to neutralize Kaepernick's running ability. They still pinched hard inside to take away the dive play. But the formations and blitzes and coverages were creative enough that UNR never knew what hit them.

I'll tell you what didn't hit them: San Jose State's defense. Or New Mexico State's. Or Fresno State's. That the Broncos were able to hold down an offense that no one else could hold down speaks to just how far above the other WAC defenses Boise State really is. Forget this talk of Coach Pete going somewhere else to coach this offseason. I would be and will be worried about Wilcox.

Best impersonation of the Berlin Wall

Boise State offensive line

via impymalting.files.wordpress.com

Much-maligned throughout the season (what's new?), the Boise State offensive line has really hit its stride over the past three weeks. And they saved their best performance for the Nevada game.

Against the Wolf Pack, the Bronco offensive line did its best 1990's communist partition impersonation with the Bronco offense serving as the good side of Germany with the Oktoberfests, German candies, and Claudia Schiffer, and the Nevada defense serving as the bad side of Germany with the swastika museums, the ethnic bias, and sauerkraut. Kellen Moore was kept clean, Martin had holes to hit, and the Bronco offense rarely stalled due to any issues along the line.

Specifically, I'd like to point out two players who exceeded expectations on Friday night. Garrett Pendergast and Matt Slater had the dubious task of going mano-a-mano with Nevada's Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch, two of the best pass rushers in the conference. Pendergast was the sketchiest Bronco lineman going into the game, but he came up roses blocking on the edge. Slater was rushed into action with an injury to Nate Potter, and the former starter more than held his own.

Are we finally seeing a Bronco offensive line that can dominate like lines of old? Here's hoping.

Biggest casualty of the game

Austin Pettis' ankle

Broken or not broken, Pettis' ankle almost doomed the Broncos on Friday night, as the absence of the team's offensive glue almost caused the whole diorama of excellence and points to fall apart. Would you have been confident picking the Broncos to win, knowing Pettis was out and Nevada would score 33? I'm not sure I would. Credit the rest of the offense for stepping up without him. Do not credit the fashion groupthink that took high tops out of style.

Runner-up: Colin Kaepernick's NFL draft status

Best Bronco defender in a supporting role

Hunter White

The backup middle linebacker had more than his fair share of backing up to do once starter Daron Mackey went down with an injury on the defense's first play. Middle linebacker was a key position in the Broncos' defensive gameplan, and White was up to the task. He finished with a game-high in tackles and was the last man standing once fellow MLB Derrell Acrey left late in the game with an injury.

Many Bronco fans thought White would be the starter from opening week. How about the starter on closing week? Note to self: attrition is a perfectly acceptable way to get a promotion.

You're doing it wrong, oh wait, never mind award

Titus Young's kickoff return

via www.bradfox.com

Fumbling the opening kickoff is usually a bad thing (so too returning kicks from eight yards deep in the end zone), but Young's Midas touch and some non-threatening Nevada kick coverage turned disaster into euphoria as Young went 95 yards for the game's opening score. Plus, no celebration penalty! Bonus.

Play of the game

Aaron Tevis's forced fumble

There were many plays to choose from (and your play of the game might be completely different than mine), but Tevis's forced fumble was my choice because of its timing. With the Broncos clinging to a one-score lead and a couple drives after Kirby Moore had fumbled away a big gain, Nevada had the ball back at their own 25 at the start of the fourth quarter. Vai Taua dove through the line for a six-yard gain, which would have left a 3rd and 1 for the Wolf Pack, but Tevis came to the rescue, knocking the ball loose from Taua's bionic left arm. Venable recovered, the Broncos added a field goal, and momentum was back on Boise State's side.

Technical awards

Reparations award: Kyle Brotzman. The Broncos' hard-luck kicker made good on a 27-yard field goal in the second half, perhaps winning back a little bit of confidence from a scorned Bronco Nation. Was I the only one uneasy about Brotzman's attempt? I guess I learned my lesson. I will never doubt Brotzman on 27-yard attempts from the middle of the field again.
Graduate already award: Tons of Nevada players. Kaepernick, Taua, Moch, and Basped will all be back next year unless they plan on stealing a page from the Jeremy Childs playbook. Will next year be Nevada's year? Graham Watson most certainly will think so.
Broken streak of the week: Red zone TDs. For the first time since Louisiana Tech, the Broncos failed to get a TD on a trip to the red zone. Still, four out of five isn't bad.

Boise State beats Nevada 44-33, wins WAC championship and stays undefeated

Kevan Lee — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 06:36:24 -0000

More photos » by Matt Cilley - AP

21 days ago: Boise State's Titus Young (4) runs back the opening kickoff for a touchdown against Nevada during the first half of an NCAA college football game on Friday, Nov. 27, 2009, in Boise, Idaho. (AP Photo/Matt Cilley)

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The Broncos overcame injuries and a determined Nevada team to win their seventh WAC title in eight years with a 44-xx win over the Wolf Pack.

Kellen Moore threw five touchdowns and Doug Martin rushed for over 100 yards for the Broncos, and the BSU defense held Nevada's Colin Kaepernick in check in the second half. What stood out to you in Boise State's big win? Join me after the jump in a few minutes for some analysis of the game (UPDATE: 12:45: analysis now added).

Doug Martin saves the Bronco offense, saves the Bronco season?

As far as I'm concerned, the game turned on a Doug Martin drive midway through the third quarter. Spanning the first and second halves, the Broncos had passed on 13 of 15 plays, broken up only be a Kellen Moore QB sneak and a Jeremy Avery two yard loss. Worse, the pass had stopped working as effectively as it was early in the game.

At the same time, Nevada was slowly crawling back into the game. The Wolf Pack had taken a 27-3 deficit and made it 27-19, having just punted on a drive that could have tied the game. The Boise State offense needed a spark, and it needed one badly.

Enter Doug Martin, who had already contributed some clutch first down conversions on an earlier TD drive. He took off for carries of 11, 16, 8, 8, and 5 yards to start the drive, moving the ball from the Boise State 36 to the Nevada 27 all by his lonesome. Kellen Moore capped the drive with his fourth touchdown of the night to a wide open Tommy Gallarda. The lead was pushed to 15, and even though Nevada answered on its next play from scrimmage, the game no longer felt tilted in the Wolf Pack's favor.

Colin Kaepernick reduced to Vai Taua middleman and generally bad QB by Boise State defense

Boise State held Kaepernick to 172 total yards - his 2nd lowest output of the season - and left him completely out of sorts in the second half, thanks to another strong overall effort by the defense. For much of the game, Kaepernick handed off to RB Taua on Nevada's vaunted veer option, as Taua finished with 24 carries for 160 yards. Kaepernick's numbers? Slightly less impressive.

16 carries, 31 yards, 0 TDs.

His passing was a little more effective - on two drives. To end the first half, Kaepernick marched the Wolf Pack 79 yards in 1:30, going 5-for-5 for 62 yards on the drive. To end the game, Kaepernick again took Nevada down field and into the end zone on a 71-yard drive, completing four passes for 66 yards and a score.

The rest of the game? 13 yards passing and an 0-for-7 stretch during the third and fourth quarters that all but spelled Nevada's doom.

Much credit goes to the Bronco defense for stopping Kaepernick. They took the ball out of his hand on the option and forced him to go laterally when he kept it around the end. I only remember three or four times when he was really able to turn it upfield and gain yards, but it would have taken a lot more of those carries to make a difference in tonight's game.

Austin Pettis proved his value by standing on the bench in street clothes

If anyone was not convinced that Pettis is perhaps the team's most valuable player, his absence from pretty much all of the Nevada game should have stated a pretty good case. The Broncos missed Pettis. There is simply no other receiver like him, and the drop off from Pettis to Chris Potter and Mitch Burroughs is considerable.

Nevertheless, for the Broncos to overcome an injury to an MVP-type player like Pettis shows a lot of heart and guile from the team. Young players stepped up in Pettis' absence. Doug Martin made his presence felt. Kellen Moore found other receivers to contribute. But the biggest impact might have been on the Broncos' gameplan, as there's a pretty good chance that Coach Pete and Bryan Harsin had to throw the whole thing out the window once Pettis went down. The changes to the strategy on offense - be it Doug Martin's running, working FBs and TEs against Nevada linebackers - obviously worked. Here's hoping the coaches get the credit they deserve.

By the way, anyone want a do-over on that two-point conversion try? I'm okay with the call. You could never know that Pettis would get hurt on something like that.

Same with Daron Mackey

Mackey was no doubt a huge part of Boise State's gameplan to stop Kaepernick and Co., so seeing him leave the game on the first defensive snap couldn't have been easy. Major high fives to Derrell Acrey and Hunter White for stepping in to fill Mackey's shoes (although Acrey did leave the field late in the fourth quarter with an injury).

Anyone catch Boise State's defensive strategy?

Whatever the Broncos did to Nevada, it worked. Apart from one long Vai Taua run, the Wolf Pack were forced to grind their way down the field or get nothing at all. Five times the Broncos forced three-and-outs. Nevada had barely more than 10 total three-and-outs coming into the game.

So what did you see the Broncos doing? They lined up in the 3-4 defense quite often with Shea McClellin and Byron Hout getting much of the work at stand-up OLB. The Broncos brought the middle linebackers fairly often at the first sign of a run. Venable or another spy seemed to always be ready to take Kaepernick down, which may have been why he chose the inside handoff so often.

All those are great, but one thing that I really enjoyed was the timing of the pre-snap movement. The Bronco defensive line waited to change the set-up until Nevada's center put his head down to get the snap signal from Kaepernick. When he brought his head back up and snapped the ball, all the Bronco linemen were in a different position. It's the simple things, really.

All Dan Paul does is catch touchdowns

Paul went 3-for-3 on catches for touchdowns against Nevada, snaring all three first-half Kellen Moore TD tosses. And as if that didn't make Richie Brockel feel bad enough, Heather Cox had to remind Brockel about three times during his interview that he is injured and out for the season.

Kirby Moore makes the most of his second chance

Moore's fumble near midfield late in the third quarter could have been a killer for the Broncos. Boise State was only leading by 8 at the time, and the drive started after Taua's 71-yard sprint to the end zone. Fortunately, the Boise State defense came up big with a three-and-out and no harm was done.

Kellen let Kirby redeem himself on one of the game's most important plays. Boise State faced a 3rd and 5 at the Nevada 6-yard-line with just over five minutes to play and an 11-point lead. If Nevada held the Broncos to a field goal, it still would have been only a two-possession game, and the Wolf Pack would have been very much in it. But the Moore brothers made that point irrelevant as Kellen placed a beautiful fade pass onto the arms of Kirby who caught it with a defender draped on him and falling out of bounds. The touchdown essentially iced the game.

Titus Young starts things off right

Young's opening kickoff wasn't the most beautiful TD return you'll ever see, but what a way to start the game. After fumbling the kick, Young weaved his way in and out of Nevada tackles, breaking free for a 95-yard TD return. The return set the tone for a strong start to the game that saw the Broncos jump out to leads of 20-0 and 27-3.

Aaron Tevis came up big in the second half

As he usually does, Tevis found himself in the middle of some big plays against Nevada, both coming in the fourth quarter. His strip of Vai Taua led to a Bronco field goal, and on the next series, he sacked Kaepernick for a 16-yard loss back to the Nevada 10 that gave the Broncos a short field (and ended with Moore's TD catch).

Other observations

Did Jason Robinson ever see the field? Seemed like Venable took the most snaps he has taken all year.
Kyle Brotzman did not get any bounces to go his way tonight on punts. A 35-yard average is pedestrian for Brotzman.
Kaepernick short-hops more passes than any other quarterback I have seen. In fact, he looked like a worse quarterback tonight than he did last season. I don't mean to be hard on the kid, but he never looked comfortable on passing plays. When he was blitzed, he gave up on his receivers too early and started scrambling. When he scrambled he was never able to see receivers downfield. Was the Boise State secondary just playing that good? Partly, I'm sure. But I think Kaepernick should be better than he was tonight.
Credit that Nevada offensive line. They know how to run block and move the pile.
The Mitch Burroughs Experiment found a new way to disappoint: dropping sure touchdowns that would give his team a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter. Ugh. I will give Austin Pettis my ankle so that I never have to see that again.
Can we just give Kellen Moore the WAC offensive player of the year trophy now and get it over with? He'll likely have 40 passing TDs by the time the New Mexico State game is over.
On a similar note, can we give the defensive player of the year to Ryan Winterswyk? He's at least got to be in the conversation, right?
Did Nate Potter ever come back in the game after that facial laceration? I saw Matt Slater in there for quite awhile.
That defensive pass interference call on 3rd and 4 on the Broncos' last drive was a huge one.
Boise State finished 7-for-14 on 3rd downs, and they got a big conversion on every single TD drive. Dan Paul's first TD catch was on 3rd and 2, Kirby Moore caught a 34-yard pass on third down on the second TD drive, Doug Martin converted two third downs with receptions on the third drive, Martin ran for a conversion on the fourth TD drive, and the pass interference call and Kirby's touchdown both came on third down on Boise State's final scoring drive.
Nevada linebackers in coverage: Yikes.
Seeing Ault and Kaepernick just makes my skin crawl. I think I despise them almost more than any other Boise State opponent, Akey and Enderle included.
Is it time to talk openly about the BCS now? I mean, New Mexico State doesn't really count as a real game, right?
I'm very anxious to get the injury report on those Bronco players.
I'm just as anxious for the Oklahoma State game tomorrow.
Man, there were a lot of extra observations this game.
Go Broncos.

Poll

Who was Boise State's player of the game versus Nevada?

Doug Martin

176 votes

Kellen Moore

60 votes

Aaron Tevis

7 votes

Dan Paul

59 votes

302 votes | Poll has closed

Can the Boise State defense slow down the Nevada running game?

Kevan Lee — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:48:02 -0000

More photos » by Brad Horn - AP

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Nevada is being hailed as one of the greatest rushing offenses in the history of college football. Does Boise State's defense stand a chance of stopping them?

To be sure, the Wolf Pack have not seen a defense as solid as Boise State's for a long time. Irresistible force meets immovable object? We'll see on Friday night. In the meantime, join me after the jump for a look at some in-depth stats on both sides of the debate.

Nevada on offense

By now, you know the characters: QB Colin Kaepernick, RB Luke Lippincott, RB Vai Taua, Chris Ault, the devil to whom Chris Ault sold his soul in exchange for the Pistol offense. On Friday, Nevada will do what Nevada always does: Run the ball until someone makes them stop. At that point, they will call pass plays, and Kaepernick will decide to scramble 75 percent of the time.

Can you blame them for being so obvious and transparent? Even when teams know the run is coming, they cannot stop it. Nevada has been downright dominant in virtually every situation this year. Here are the numbers.

(Note: Success defined as gaining 50 percent of needed yards on 1st down, 75 percent on 2nd down, and 100 percent on 3rd and 4th down. Power attempts defined as third or fourth down with two yards or less to go or goal-to-go attempts from the two-yard-line or closer.)

To put things into layman's terms, Nevada gets first downs on two out of every three carries. Lippincott is the most effective runner on the team, but all three (Kaepernick, Lippincott, and Taua) have successful carries over half of the time. On 3rd and short, the Wolf Pack are almost automatic. Nevada has had one of the most successful offensive streaks that you will ever see.

Boise State on defense

Bronco fans should take comfort in last year's game against the Wolf Pack. In the midst of another prolific rushing season, Nevada managed only 144 yards against the Bronco defense. Justin Wilcox's scheme worked to perfection to stop Kaepernick from making plays. The inside push of the defensive lineman held Taua in check. There was no Lippincott last year, but he would have been running into the same wall that Taua did. The Boise State defense outplayed the Nevada offense.

No doubt Nevada has improved from last year. In that case, is the 2009 Boise State defense better or worse than the 2008 defense?

The question is completely open for debate, and in the end, there is probably no way of actually knowing the right answer. For what it's worth, I think last year's version was better. The 2009 team seems a little more undisciplined, and they miss more tackles. If the Broncos could have carried the defensive effort from the Oregon game through the whole season, I would vote for the 2009 defense being the better of the two. However, I think it's safe to say that hasn't happened.

At the same time, this year's Boise State defense is no slouch. In fact, it will probably be the best one that Nevada has faced all season long. More importantly, the stats on the Boise State defense match up well against those of Nevada's offense.

The Boise State rush defense has been an interesting case study all season long. The Broncos have given up big yardage days to a few really good running backs (Ryan Mathews, DeMaundray Woolridge). However, they don't often give up big yardage days to really good running schemes. Follow me?

Boise State's rush defense numbers are quite good. They only allow one-third successful rushing attempts on first down and one-fourth successful rushes on second down. If the Broncos can maintain those numbers on Friday, and if Nevada chooses to rush on first and second down, chances are good that the Wolf Pack will be in a 3rd and long. And that is exactly where you want Nevada to be.

The keys to success for the Boise State defense will be:

Limit yards on first and second down.
Force 3rd and long.
Get tackles for loss.
Wrap up and make one-on-one tackles.
Stay disciplined.

What Boise State might do to stop the Wolf Pack

Last year's defensive scheme involved a safety taking Kaepernick one-on-one on running plays, and it worked like a charm. Boise State pinched the middle of the line to take away the dive plays to Taua, and Kaepernick could not shake the equally athletic DBs when he got out to the edge. Don't be surprised to see a similar strategy on Friday night. Boise State has the athletes and the depth to pull it off. Not many other WAC schools do.

Also don't be surprised if you see a little wrinkle that Boise State showed last week against the Utah State Aggies. Facing a similar style of offense, the Broncos came out in a standard 3-4 defense. Here's how it looked:

Winston Venable moved in to outside linebacker, Chase Baker dropped to nose tackle, Billy Winn bumped out to defensive end, and Shea McClellin stood up to play the outside linebacker opposite Venable. The Broncos flipped the formation depending on where the ball was placed on the hashes.

Just like the pro-style 3-4 defense, the Broncos can do a lot of different things from this formation including blitzes, stunts, and zone blitzes. McClellin, who played linebacker in high school, was seen dropping into coverage on his first quarter interception, Winn would occasionally come off the line to spy on Borel, and Mackey and Tevis were always a threat to blitz. The formation worked against Utah State. Will it return Friday night against Nevada?

Your turn

You've seen the stats and heard the hype. How do you think Boise State's run defense will do against the Wolf Pack? Would you prefer to see last year's strategy return or try out the new 3-4 look? What defensive players will play the biggest roles? What will be key to stopping the run? Share your thoughts in the comments.

Opponent preview: Can Boise State slow down Nevada's pass rush?

Kevan Lee — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:08:11 -0000

With so much focus on the Nevada offense, it is easy to forget that the Wolf Pack defense boasts some of the best playmakers in the conference. Can the Bronco offensive line handle Nevada DEs Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch?

Join me after the jump for a preview of the battle between the Boise State offense and the Nevada defense. (I'll get to the Nevada running game tomorrow.) And feel free to leave your thoughts on what factors might make the biggest difference on Friday night.

8-3, (7-0)

Nevada at No. 6 Boise State

Kickoff: Friday, 8:00pm MT, TV: ESPN2

Weather forecast: partly cloudy, high of 44

Spread: Boise State by 14

11-0, (6-0)

Nevada's season-to-date

The Wolf Pack got off to a disappointing start, going 0-3 against the likes of Notre Dame and Colorado State. What went wrong? Turnovers mostly, and their 8-0 run since the 0-3 start shows just how important a role turnovers can play in the final outcome (and how random fumble recoveries can be).

Chris Ault has gone from hot seat to hot commodity, Colin Kaepernick has gone from bust to the greatest running quarterback of all time, and Nevada has made good on the preseason promise of a meaningful post-Thanksgiving date against the Broncos ... barely.

During its eight-game winning streak, the Wolf Pack has still showed signs of being the Wolf Pack of old. Witness:

A three-point win at Utah State. The Broncos just won there by 31 points.
A 10-point home win over Hawaii. Boise State beat Hawaii by 45 on the road.

Still, Nevada is playing the best football of its up-and-down season, rolling to victories of 55, 38, and 43 points in its last three games. The WAC is bad. Nevada is not. That alone makes a big difference.

Nevada on offense

WR Brandon Wimberly
RB Luke Lippincott
RB Colin Kaepernick
WR Chris Wellington
OL John Bender
OL Kenneth Ackerman
OL Alonzo Durham
OL Steve Haley
OL Chris Barker
WR Tray Session
TE Virgil Green

By now you've probably heard that the Wolf Pack can run the ball pretty well. I'll be writing something tomorrow to that effect.

Where the Wolf Pack will have to make the most of their opportunities is in the passing game. The team's leading receiver, Brandon Wimberley, only has 595 yards (the second leading receiver, Tray Session, has 291), and Colin Kaepernick is only marginally better than he was last season. Chances are good that Kaepernick will have to throw efficiently for the Wolf Pack to win. Can he?

Nevada on defense

DE Kevin Basped
DT Nate Agaiava
DT Zack Madonick
DE Dontay Moch
DL Ryan Coulson
LB James-Michael Johnson
LB Mike Bethea
LB Brandon Marshall
DB Isaiah Frey
DB Mo Harvey
DB Doyle Miller

The Nevada defense is last in the conference in pass defense (119th in the country), but tops in the WAC in rush defense. Part of that can be attributed to opponents falling behind early. Another part can be attributed to the Nevada pass defense just being atrocious since it has always been atrocious. The potential for big plays will be there for Boise State, and with the Bronco running game firing on all cylinders, it will be interesting to see just how good the Nevada run defense really is.

Nevada special teams

P Brad Langley
K Ricky Drake
KR Mike Ball
PR Antoine Thompson

Mike Ball is the forgotten running back behind Lippincott and Taua, but he's capable of big returns. The Broncos gave up two fake punt conversions last week. Fortunately, Nevada isn't known for stellar special teams play, but that doesn't mean they might not try something against the Broncos.

Dontay Moch and Kevin Basped in the spotlight

Moch and Basped, as any coherent Nevada fan will tell you, are THE NATION'S BEST DEFENSIVE END TANDEM BAR NONE HANDS DOWN PERIOD END OF STORY KENO. The statistics certainly show that the two DEs deserve a lot of credit for the way they have terrorized WAC backfields for the past two seasons. Here are their stats thus far in 2009:

Basped: 7.5 sacks, 10.5 TFLs

Moch: 6.5 sacks, 19.5 TFLs, 2 forced fumbles

Basped, an all-WAC first teamer last year, has done his damage in one fewer game than Moch, a reigning all-WAC second teamer.

Boise State pass protection in the spotlight

It won't do the Wolf Pack a lot of good to have two of the conference's best defensive ends if neither end can get to Kellen Moore on a regular basis. Therefore, the play of the Boise State offensive line will be a big factor in the success of the passing game on Friday. How will they hold up? Do you want the good news or the bad news first?

The good news comes to us courtesy of OBNUG reader Mikrino, who posted a FanShot yesterday with this golden nugget:

2009 National Leaders in Sacks Allowed
1. Boise State:   	11 games, 5 sacks, 32 yards lost, 0.46 sacks allowed per game

The Broncos are the best in the country at keeping sackmasters out of the scorebook. Even more impressive, Boise State has not given up multiple sacks in a single game since Oregon. The only other teams to get the Broncos were UC Davis, Tulsa, and San Jose State.

However, all this is not to say that Kellen Moore has been kept clean. While the sacks have been few and far between, the hits and hurries have not. Here is a look at the game-by-game pressure that Moore has faced.

**Kellen Moore under pressure**
Opponent	Hits	Hurries	Total
Oregon	4	3	7
Miami (OH)	3	8	11
Fresno State	1	6	7
Bowling Green	0	2	2
UC Davis	1	4	5
Tulsa	2	7	9
Hawaii	3	10	13
San Jose State	5	8	13
Louisiana Tech	2	15	17
Idaho	7	8	15
Utah State	3	7	10

Moore has been hassled on about one-third of his throws in recent games. So perhaps the question should be: How much does pressure impact Moore? Or does pressure from certain areas make more difference than others?

I'd be curious to know what you think, but for the record, I think Moore is unstoppable when he has time to throw, he's great when faced with stiff pressure, and he's better than most when he's getting hit. The only pressure I've seen that makes a noticeable difference with his passing is pressure up the middle. Considering that Moch and Basped are edge rushers, even if they get close, Moore should be okay.

And now, the rest of the story on the Nevada defense

Moch and Basped are excellent defensive ends. There is no doubt about that. But what I find interesting is that even though they rush the passer with the best of them, the Nevada pass defense is horrible. A big part of pass defense is pressure on the quarterback. Does that mean that the Nevada secondary is exponentially worse than your average 119th-ranked secondary?

Against the run, Nevada is significantly better. Don't blow off their good rush defense stats as a consequence of opponents abandoning the run to play catch-up. Case in point: The Wolf Pack held Fresno State's Ryan Mathews to 35 yards on 8 carries before he left with a concussion in the second quarter.

A lot will be written about how nothing compares to the Nevada rushing attack, but I would argue that the same can be said of Boise State's ground game. The misdirection, handoffs, and movement when the Broncos run the ball rivals that of any other college football team for uniqueness, effectiveness, and big-play potential. If Boise State executes, I think they can run effectively against Nevada. But it won't be easy. Would you give the Broncos the edge?

Other factors

Some Boise State receiver will be open. Most WAC offenses have one or two great receivers who can really hurt a defense. Boise State has, what, four? Five? If Nevada chooses to focus on Pettis and Young, then Kirby Moore and Kyle Efaw can do plenty of damage in the wide open spaces that the Wolf Pack leave. Avery out of the backfield is a threat. No one can stop the quick screens and hitches to Young and Pettis. It seems like no matter how you look at it, the Boise State wide receivers win the matchup against the Nevada secondary. And it is not that close.
The focus on Garrett Pendergast. Against San Jose State, Pendergast struggled to block the Spartans' second-best defensive lineman, Adonis Davis. He'll probably have the matchup against either Moch or Basped, so it will be interesting to see if the Broncos leave him on an island or give him help. Advantage: Nevada.
Turnovers for touchdowns. Two pick-sixes were the only things that kept Nevada in the game last year when the Broncos visited Reno. Kellen Moore made a mistake against Louisiana Tech, and it cost the team a touchdown and a blowout. If the Broncos get up on the Wolf Pack on Friday, perhaps the only thing that could save UNR is a quick score off a turnover.
Fumbles from center. I thought we were done with that. BAD WORDS.
Boise State's advantage on special teams. Year in and year out, the Broncos have excellent all-around special teams. Year in and year out, Nevada does not. While the Wolf Pack are certainly improved, they are not Virginia Tech. It would appear that Young and Martin might get a couple cracks at kickoff returns, Wilson could get his hands on a few punts, and Brotzman could be called on in big spots. At the very least, Boise State needs to use its advantage on special teams to win the field position battle.

Your turn

I know there are plenty other factors to watch for on Friday night, so what ones did I not mention? What will you be watching? Can the Boise State offensive line control Nevada's defensive ends? Leave your thoughts in the comments.

UNLV Gets Smoked by Instate Rival Nevada

Jeremy Mauss — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 19:28:18 -0000

Final - 10.3.2009	1	2	3	4	Total
UNLV Rebels	0	21	7	0	28
Nevada Wolf Pack	14	7	14	28	63

Complete Coverage >

So much for UNLV to be a sleeper in the Mountain West. Nevada was supposed to be good as well, but after slow star their Pistol offense exploded for their highest point total of the year with the 63. The Wolfpack also racked up an amazing 773 yards of total offense even by committing four turnovers, and being without their top running back Vai Taua.

This game was going back and forth during the first half with Nevada getting up early 14-0, but then UNLV responded to tie the game at 21 apiece at the half. The second half was a disaster for UNLV as they were out scored 42-7.

This loss was an absolute disaster for UNLV and Mike Sanford really could be given the pink slip after two embarrassing losses even though he did sign a three year contract extension last December. This game was really bizarre in how Nevada won the game. Nevada had 773 yards of offense --559 on the ground, four turnovers, and 15 penalties for 169 yards. While UNLV had one turnover and a decent 276 yards of passing offense, plus the time of possession was basically a fifty-fifty split.

The Rebel downfall besides the obvious of their terrible defense, but their running game needs to be addressed because this game they were only able to manage 70 yards which was their lowest of the year. The 559 rushing yards was amazing enough, but the Wolfpack for the first time in school history had three 100 yard rushers. The passing game for Nevada was also solid with dual threat QB Colin Kaepernick going 15 for 18 with 208 yards and a score.

UNLV had no answer for Nevada and by the way this was their first win of the year. More on the Rebel offense, is that QB Omar Clayton did not start and that news was keep quiet up until kick off.

"I would say that Omar was pretty beat up, and he doesn't have anything long-term, but we made a decision. We felt like he'd be injured more if we played him today, and we needed to get him back healthy."

Even with Mike Clausen starting the drop off is not there, and the blame should not fall on Clausen starting. The running game was a mess with QB Mike Clausen getting 15 carries compared to twelve for the rest of the backs. Not really sure what Coach Mike Sanford was thinking, because Nevada was able to move the ball at will, and some type of running attack would have kept the Nevada offense on the sideline.

Instead they opted to attempt to play score for score and had Clausen throw fifty times, and to make things worse star WR Ryan Wolfe was smothered and only managed five catches for 36 yards. With the four turnovers UNLV's defense was able to muster up the UNLV offense should have been able to do more.

It ended up being a good thing this game was not telveised, or UNLV fans may have started throwing their television sets out the window. Now it is up to UNLV --more specifically Mike Sanford-- to save this season. They do have three winable games at New Mexico then a home game for San Diego State and Colorado State. Well, the Ram game will be an upset but it is a winnable game.

Eleven questions concerning the UW/Notre Dame clash

John Berkowitz — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 13:21:24 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sakuma - AP

2 months ago: Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian argues with an official in the second quarter of an NCAA football game against Stanford in Stanford, Calif., Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)

Browse more photos »

Christopher Wilson from "The Rakes of Mallow" blog which follows Notre Dame Athletics requested that we exchange questions during the week before the big game. What exactly are Rakes of Mallow anyway? Are they good with crackers?

Lets start off with five questions John Berkowitz asked about Notre Dame.

1. QB Jimmy Clausen has been bothered with a nasty turf toe injury. We hear he will start and that just may be gamesmanship on Charlie Weis's part, but how will his injury and lack of mobility effect the Notre Dame game plan on Saturday? Over all are injuries going to be a big challenge to overcome on offense for the Irish on Saturday?

I can assure you that there's no gamesmanship involved with Clausen's status, as the guy has been hobbling around on one leg for the last game and a half. Weis said he's in better shape now than he was at this point last week, but who knows how the week of practice will affect the injury. Back-up Dayne Crist looked competent against Purdue, but we'd obviously rather have Mr. Clausen out there guiding the offense, even at less than a hundred percent. Beyond moving around the pocket to avoid sacks, Weis' offense doesn't require a lot of running from his quarterback, but you'd obviously rather have your signal-caller at full strength instead of dragging his leg around like a useless appendage.

Star wideout Michael Floyd is gone for the season, and has been for the last six quarters, so the Irish are already adjusting to life without him (it is not as good as the life with him). Outside of Clausen, the most important injury variable will be the potential return of tailback Armando Allen, the fifteenth leading rusher in the nation after three games, who missed last Saturday's game but looks likely to return for this weekend's contest.

2. Tell us a little about the Irish running game. We have heard that they have put in the Wildcat to pump up the productivity of the run game. Are the irish having problems running the ball?

I can comfortably say, for the first time in a couple seasons, that the Irish are not having trouble running the ball. Frank Verducci was brought in to fix up an offensive line that had been positively woeful in 2007 and 2008, and so far, so good. Through the first three games, the Wildcat was used as a change of pace to varying degrees of effectiveness (rather blah results on two plays versus Nevada, two red zone touchdowns against Michigan State).

Against Purdue, things got a little desperate, as Armando Allen was unable to play and Jimmy Clausen was limping around on one leg. The Irish moved their number one receiver, Golden Tate, back to his high school position of running back and actually ran some zone read options with the more mobile red-shirt freshman Crist. It seems like Allen should be ready to go for Saturday's game - he was a late scratch at Purdue - which should serve as a big help for the Irish. If he doesn't go, junior Robert Hughes got the majority of the carries against Purdue, with freshman Theo Riddick and sophomore Jonas Gray (who has had a slight fumbling problem in his short career) chipping in.

3. The Irish defense has been giving up a lot of yardage through the air this season. Can you give us a quick rundown on the defense and in particular the secondary?

The front of the defense is very young, and they haven't done a great job with Jon Tenuta's blitzing attack up until this point (as the numbers show). There isn't an overwhelming amount of size, but the majority of the linebackers come with a very high pedigree. Freshman Manti Teo was a surprise commit from Hawaii and has slowly been working his way into the rotation, a monster of an athlete with great instincts who should cause some problems for opposing offenses. The front seven has done a good job of getting to the mobile quarterbacks the Irish have faced - Colin Kaepernick, Tate Forcier - but actually tackling them? That's a different story. As long as The Hurt Locker is capable of an occasional side step, he is going to give the Notre Dame defense nightmares unless they improve their tackling.

The secondary has been the cause of a lot of confusion this season. If you asked any Irish fan what area they were most comfortable with before kickoff against Nevada, I imagine a majority would have gone with the secondary over any other unit, yet they have struggled immensely so far this season. Kyle McCarthy has been great at anchoring the defense from safety, but the corner play from a bunch of highly regarded guys who have performed in the past (Walls, Gray, Blanton, McNeil) has led a lot of Irish backers to wonder if it is the Tenuta scheme that's causing the problem. Regardless of whether it's personnel or scheme, the Irish need to fix it if they want to avoid thrusting every quarterback they play into Heisman contention.

4. There seemed to be a lot of backlash directed at Charlie Weis after the tough Michigan loss. Has the heat toned down a bit after beating Michigan State and Purdue or is he still on the proverbial hot seat?

Charlie Weis is on the hot seat until this season ends, and even after that, there will be some that want his head. Some Irish fans pegged this team for winning eleven or twelve games before the season started, and Charlie will have to grapple with their expectations. I think Charlie is safe and sound at 9-3 and better, but anything below that and who knows. (Of course, the idea of firing a coach that goes 8-4 is hilarious, but what are you going to do? The people want blood, and depending on how the team looks the rest of the season, they may be justified.) With the bye week looming, it could be a long fortnight before Southern Cal for Weis if he can't hold serve at home against your Huskies.

5. You have probably seen Washington play at least once on TV and I know you have seen each Irish game at least five times. I am assuming you are predicting a Notre Dame victory on Saturday. Can you tell us how they are going to go about securing that victory? Are they going to run it down our throats after what happened at Stanford or will it be business as usual from the air?

I'm predicting a Notre Dame win, but the fourteen-point line is patently absurd against a team that outplayed LSU and beat Southern Cal. I'd say the Irish's best chance at victory will be to just focus on the running game, take shots deep when they get the chance and keep Jake Locker off the field as much as possible. I'm nervous that the Huskies played so poorly last week, because if this is to be an up-and-down type of season for the young Huskies, they're now due for the up bump. I imagine that Weis will attempt to establish the running game as much as he can early, and barring stiff opposition from the Huskies front seven, won't take to the air unless absolutely necessary. I'm horrible at predictions and try to avoid making them, but I imagine Notre Dame pulls out the win by a touchdown or so. And take the over, unless one of our defenses gets a lot better before 3:30pm Eastern on Saturday.

Christopher Wilson asks six questions about Washington.

1. Washington had a ton of starters coming back on defense, but have really struggled in stopping the run the last couple games. Would you chalk that up to going against two great running teams in Stanford and Southern Cal, or is the front seven a big point of concern?

We had a poor first quarter defending the USC running game but were able to shut it down to acceptable levels over the next three. I think a key component in that was USC taking themselves out of drives by turning the ball over. If USC plays a relatively clean game they end up beating Washington by 17 points even with the Huskies playing well.

As for the returning starters you have to take into consideration that they comprised the second worst defense in the BCS in 2008. Conditioning, strength, speed, talent level, and coaching were all huge problems while Tyrone Willingham was at Washington. The coaching and conditioning have dramatically improved. The talent level and overall speed can only be fixed by future recruiting classes. We have made some strides in strength over the last eight months but it takes a full 18 months to rebuild a football player from a total strength perspective.

Stanford is a very physical team on both sides of the ball. Jim Harbaugh has had three full years to rebuild this team and it shows. We just couldn't stop them no matter what adjustment we made. Obviously when you give up 320 yards to the Cardinal it is a huge concern for your front seven. Our linebackers are actually pretty good but the front line was simply blocked all night by Stanford. Games are won on the line of scrimmage for the most part and we were hammered on both sides of the ball by Stanford.

2. If there is a weakness for this Irish team, it is the youth up front on defense (although statistically, it's the passing defense - there are a lot of issues on that side of the ball). Is there a running back or running play we should be particularly concerned with containing?

Chris Polk is one of the better running backs in the Pac 10. He has the ability to break big one's but what is impressive is how he continues to get yards after contact. He just carries guys with him for 4-5 yards. We have a brute of a senior FB in Paul Homer. He won't carry the ball much but he is a battering ram from a blocking perspective. Johri Fogerson is Polk's backup and he has broken some big plays making catches out of the backfield this year.

Both Polk, Fogerson, and Homer can catch the ball. Polk had no room to run last week but still picked up 70 or so tough yards carrying guys with him. He is a gamer. QB Jake Locker hasn't been unleashed yet this season as a running threat. He can hurt a team when he turns the corner because he has 4.35 speed and the size of a linebacker. Think Tim Tebow West. He picked up nearly 1000 yards on the ground his freshman season.

3. Reading about the Huskies, it seems like Jake Locker is pretty much the entire offense, considering Washington's ranks in rushing the ball (94th) versus passing (38th) and Number Ten's heavy contributions to both. That plan was working rather well until Saturday night in Stanford, where Locker really struggled. Was there anything the Cardinal did to force that performance, or was it just an off game for a great quarterback? Notre Dame's defense has really struggled this year, but they've already seen some mobile guys with similar skillsets to Locker (Kaepernick, Forcier)

Jake Locker is the best QB in the Pac 10. He has a great arm and until last week thrived in Steve Sarkisian's pro-set offense. This season he is throwing first and running second, under Willingham he would run around 15 designed running plays per game. Under Sarkisian that number is closer to 2-3 and only if needed. They want to keep him healthy because if he goes down the season is over for the Huskies.

On Saturday night Jake simply had an off night and didn't respond well to the pressure even though he had plenty of it against LSU and USC. He had three drive killing turnovers which really threw him and the offense out of sync all night. I would like to credit Stanford but all three were obvious mental errors. When Jake is on his game he is pretty much unstoppable. I think you will see a different Jake Locker in South Bend. No offense to the Irish but from what I have seen of the ND defense it hasn't compared favorably to LSU, USC, and Stanford.

Even with all the running yards we gave up on Saturday our defense only gave up four touchdowns. If our offense had performed minus the turnovers we could have won that game. We just aren't good enough to beat a good team with a minus turnover ratio.

I wouldn't say Jake is the entire offense this year because we have actually gotten some pretty good production out of the running backs. The season is only four games old and we have had a brutal schedule. The balance will show in the stats as the season progresses.

4. Jon Tenuta loves blitzing, almost to a fault at this point in the season. How capable is the Huskies offensive line at protecting Locker?

Our offensive line had exceeded expectations until last Saturday against Stanford. Obviously we are used to handling speed after playing LSU close and beating USC. Our offensive line even though it has exceeded expectations is simply adequate at this point and won't get better until we bring in some better talent.

What is helping the line right now is that they are playing in front of an extremely mobile QB. When your QB runs a sub 4.35 it masks a lot of problems up front. Our running backs are excellent blockers and that helps too. If I was Jon Tenuta I would play UW straight up. When you blitz you are leaving your vulnerable secondary even more vulnerable. Jake has no problem getting around the end for a big gainer if you over run him. He actually has a better arm than Claussen and some very good receivers so if you can't catch him you can get burned by blitzing. UW uses a zone blocking scheme that features the infamous chop block this season. Notre Dame is going to have to adapt to that early.

5. If the Irish decide they want to air it out, how is the Washington secondary? Stanford only threw 14 times against them, and Aaron Corp was totally shut down in his start. I'm curious to know what to expect if Jimmy decides to chuck it deep.

We haven't really been tested by a QB of Jimmy's caliber yet except in practice. Aaron Corp really didn't have a chance and I wouldn't call him an elite QB anyway. LSU's Jordan Jefferson had two big plays for TD's when Washington had coverage errors while blitzing which left a young safety playing his first game on an island. They weren't long throws but LSU's Tolliver is just huge and super fast. So when the lone UW defender failed to stop him he was off to the races. Idaho was probably our best test so far against a QB who will play in the NFL some day. Nathan Enderle carved our secondary up with a lot of mid range stuff. They didn't break anything long but they picked up a lot of yards in front and just right over our LB's.

We know we are improved back there. We know we have made adjustments in personnel and schemes in the secondary that make us a better team. The long ball doesn't worry me. What does worry me is being picked apart on the mid range stuff. If Weis wants to stretch the field long all day I think he is missing out on what has proven to work best against our secondary. Obviously we need to get pressure on Clausen. He doesn't do well against pressure. I think the toe injury might be enough to slow him down considerably.

6. Finally, beyond the obvious advantages of ditching Ty Willingham for a coach with a heartbeat and getting Jake Locker back, what are the differences between this Huskies team and the one that got flattened by the Irish in Seattle this year?

There is a new attitude in Seattle. Coach Sarkisian and his staff our tireless workers and recruiters. They are going to turn this thing around a lot quicker than most people think. This team doesn't quit and the team you faced last year had quit on themselves. Even the coaching staff quit after the fourth game so it was a real mess to clean up.

We may not win on Saturday but your team is going to know that they were in a serious football game. The goal Washington has besides winning this year is gaining the respect of each opponent. I think we have done that so far and it will continue till the end of the season.

Washington is missing some pieces here and there but they are a sound fundamental football team in 2009. That was never the case under Coach Willingham. This team gets better every week and learns from its mistakes. They don't like losing and their is no apathy on the sidelines. Our team is playing with a lot of spirit. These kids are fired up when they hit the field. The difference between Washington 2008 and 2009 is night and day. Most importantly these guys believe right down to the very depth of their very soul that they are going to beat Notre Dame on Saturday. It worked against USC, came close to working against LSU, so why not Notre Dame?

If Notre Dame is going to win on Saturday they are going to have to kick Washington's butt in the trenches. If they don't do that and try to finesse their way through it they will come up on the short end of the stick.

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - 2009 Season - Week 5

Beergut — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 10:19:49 -0000

This is the fifth installment of the 2009 Big 12 Roundtable, a weekly feature during the season. Each week, an SB Nation Big 12 blogger will host the Roundtable and submit a series of questions to all Big 12 bloggers. This week, the Roundtable is being hosted by Rock M Nation. Listed below are I Am The 12th Man's answers.

1. Is it time for the Big 12 to collectively pour one out for the departure of Baylor quarterback Robert "Hot Tub" Griffin? Even if your team benefits from his injury, are you sad to see one of the conference's premier playmakers done for the season?

I think most Big 12 bloggers have already mentioned Griffin's injury, and sent along their condolences in their own way. As I have already pointed out, Griffin's season-ending injury means my pick for first team All-Big 12 QB is done, and my pick for the upset of the year, Baylor over Texas Tech in Waco, lost its foundation. Griffin is a thrill to watch on the field when he is playing, and I think all Big 12 bloggers are college football fans at heart, regardless of our team affilitation, so we are all sad to see him out for the year. I think it is also important to note that despite Griffin's freakish athletic ability, he wasn't a brash or cocky person who talked trash or made you hate him; he let his play on the field do the talking for him, in an example of class I wish more athletes would follow. This makes Griffin's injury doubly sad, because he is a positive role model of how exceptional star athletes should act.

2. Play the role of Mythbusters for us. If you could dispel one national perception of your team, what would it be?

Really not sure how to answer this one, because I'm not sure what myths are out there about our team. I think most people regard our team as an enigma, not sure what to think of us because we've rolled up some astronomical offensive numbers on some weak defenses, so they're not sure if we're for real or not. The only myth I can think of that might exist about the football program is that Coach Sherman is on the hot seat; that simply isn't true, and it wasn't true before the beginning of this season.

3. Give us the name of one player on each side of the ball on your team that everyone else in the conference may not know about or fully appreciate.

Jamie McCoy, Tight End: I think most Big 12 bloggers know of McCoy to some degree, but I don't know if they appreciate what he does for our team. The coaches move him around a lot, and since we often operate out of 10 personnel, Jamie is sometimes asked to come in motion frm the slot and act as a wingback, and kickout a defensive end, or motions over to fullback, and blocks in the I-formation. This is in addition to being our team leader in receptions, with 13 for 169 yds on the season so far. With the injury to Jermaine Gresham, I think a legitimate case can be made for McCoy as the Big 12's best tight end.

Trent Hunter, Strong Safety: Obviously, Big 12 bloggers don't know about or appreciate Trent Hunter, because none of them voted for him for All-Big 12 on our preseason all-conference team. Am I bitter? Damn right I am. Hunter is the second-best safety in the nation, right behind that Eric Berry fellow from Tennessee, who really should win the Heisman. Hunter currently leads our team in tackles, with 20 on the season so far. Is calling Hunter one of the best safeties in the nation hyperbole? No. Watch him play, and I defy you to disagree with me.

4. OU vs. Da U: Who ya' got?

Oklahoma, all the way. I'd root for OU just out of conference pride, but I think Oklahoma's defensive front is going to be a nightmare for Jacorey Harris. If Miami can't handle Virginia Tech's defense, Oklahoma is going to make for a long night. Miami is playing at home, so I think they might keep it close, and OU's secondary is still questionable, in my mind, but I still think OU takes this one.

5. Give us your Offensive Player of the Week, Defensive Player of the Week, and Storyline of the Week for last week.

Offensive Player of the Week: Jerrod Johnson, QB, Texas A&M.

You can call me biased, and I really don't care. Jerrod had 3 TDs rushing and 3 TDs passing, and that is simply a phenomenal individual effort. The Big 12 Conference chose Iowa State's Alexander Robinson and Missouri's Danario Alexander as Co-Offensive Players of the Week, after Robinson rushed for 127 yds and scored 3 TDs against Army. Alexander had 9 receptions for 170 yds and 2 TDs against Nevada. Now, Alexander's performance against Nevada was impressive, so I don't want to take anything away from him, but Johnson scored more TDs than those two combined. I really don't understand the media. Colt McCoy throws another pick-six against UTEP, and the pundits fall all over themselves declaring him back in the Heisman race; if he had a statline like Jerrod last Saturday, they''d be calling him better than Tim Tebow. Jerrod puts on an incredible performance, though, and nary a peep. Like I said, you can call me biased, but I don't care. Someone needs to give Jerrod recognition for what he did last Saturday.

Defensive Player of the Week: Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri

Missouri played a legitimate opponent in Nevada, and going up against the reigning WAC Offensive Player of the Year in Colin Kaepernick, they had their work cut out for them. 'Spoon had 9 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss in helping his defense control Nevada's explosive Pistol offense.

Storyline of the Week: It has to be Kansas' football team fighting with Kansas' basketball team. While basketball players aren't always known for their intelligence, you'd think they'd be able to do simple math: 85 scholarships versus 13 scholarships means they're outnumbered and will lose every time. Furthermore, football players train to do violence multiple times a minute for 60 minutes every Saturday in all types of weather. Basketball players train to put a ball through a hoop indoors; you'd think this would occur to these hoopster brainiacs, but apparently it didn't. It did make for some fun television and some nice discussion of Mark Mangino's disciplinary hold on the Kansas team (are they off that 2006 probation yet?).

6. Power Poll! Rank the teams 1-12 based on who would win on a neutral field.

texas longhorns
Oklahoma Sooners
Missouri Tigers
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Kansas Jayhawks
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Baylor Bears
Iowa St Cyclones
Kansas St Wildcats
Colorado Buffaloes

Mizzou-Nevada: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 15:00:19 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

In the end, this was not a very statistically impressive win. Mizzou's now looked extremely statistically impressive twice and unimpressive twice, and...guess what: they're 4-0. What we're seeing right now is a young, relatively inconsistent team that kicks its game up in the second half and makes the plays it needs to make. We'll see what happens when the schedule gets tougher--does Missouri get tougher too, or is this shaping up to be another 7-5/8-4 season when all is said and done? Anybody who says they know the answer is lying.

	Mizzou (31)	Nevada (21)
Close %	93.8%
Field Position %	54.2%	57.5%
Leverage %	63.9%	71.2%

TOTAL
EqPts	29.8	23.2
Close Success Rate	41.7%	51.6%
Close PPP	0.41	0.28
Close S&P	0.831	0.798

RUSHING
EqPts	4.1	15.4
Close Success Rate	25.8%	65.8%
Close PPP	0.13	0.36
Close S&P	0.391	1.019
Line Yards/carry	1.45	4.07

PASSING
EqPts	25.7	7.8
Close Success Rate	53.7%	30.8%
Close PPP	0.63	0.17
Close S&P	1.163	0.476
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 5.0%	0.0% / 25.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	43.5%	55.8%
PPP	0.37	0.25
S&P	0.803	0.803

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	38.5%	42.9%
PPP	0.50	0.50
S&P	0.881	0.928

TURNOVERS
Number	1	2
Turnover Pts	4.1	10.1
Turnover Pts Margin	+6.0	-6.0

Q1 S&P	0.675	0.991
Q2 S&P	0.796	0.382
Q3 S&P	1.128	1.031
Q4 S&P	0.866	0.956

1st Down S&P	0.541	0.783
2nd Down S&P	1.043	0.884
3rd Down S&P	1.105	0.870

Projected Pt. Margin	+12.6	-12.6
Actual Pt. Margin	+10	-10

Reactions

Here's where a stat nerd faces a conundrum. Nevada ran almost three-fifths of their plays in Mizzou territory, which is way too many, but they also gave up only three touchdowns, one of which came when the game was iced. There is not much of a place for statistical peace when it comes to the "bend but don't break" style, but...Mizzou didn't break. What to think?
Another dilemma: Mizzou faced way too many Passing Downs, but they responded very well to them. Is that a silver lining or a warning sign?
1.45 line yards per carry. Yeah. Though that was balanced out a smidge by what ended up being a damn solid pass blocking performance. Some credit for that has to go to Blaine Gabbert showing some really good escapability, but as David Yost pointed out on Tiger Talk last night, sometimes Gabbert escapes the pocket when he doesn't need to. It usually ends up working out okay (at least not including the first half of the Bowling Green game), but the protection really is probably a bit better than it gets credit for...which is good, because the run blocking most certainly is not.
Both teams did better offensively on Passing Downs than Standard Downs. Makes total sense. Mizzou couldn't move the ball on first downs to save their lives, but Blaine Gabbert was a laid-back assassin on third downs.
Q2 defense and Q3/Q4 offense won this game for Mizzou. Nevada's S&P rebounded with a near-flawless final drive after Mizzou had closed out the win, but in all Mizzou really did do enough to win this game--this wasn't a little lucky like the Bowling Green game. Nevada played well, and Mizzou played a bit better. This brings up an interesting situation with perspective: without knowing what happened in Nevada's first two games, this would have been exactly the type of effort I would have expected from Nevada. They made plays and had a chance to win, but Mizzou made more plays and won.

If I'd been told we'd win like this in the offseason, I'd have been thrilled. But thanks to a wretched two-game road trip to start the season, expectations on Nevada's capabilities changed pretty significantly. I guess we'll see how the Wolf Pack responds as the season progresses--they need to turn things around pretty quickly, or else they're looking at a 2004 Mizzou type of situation, where negative sentiment and lack of confidence in key moments affects what seems overall to be a pretty talented squad.
So here's something amusing: I spent all offseason writing approximately 125,000 words about Mizzou's 2009 prospects, and I came to the following conclusion about the offense: big plays might be a problem, but Mizzou should be able to fall back on their run game, a great offensive line, and solid possession receiving from guys like Andrew Jones and Wes Kemp to move the chains and take pressure off of Blaine Gabbert.

Yeah, the exact opposite has more or less happened. Teams are focusing on the run and stopping it more effectively than I anticipated, and Andrew Jones has been a complete non-factor...but Mizzou has made more big offensive plays than anybody else in the conference. Who knew? I sure didn't. Good thing I spent all season analyzing this instead of, you know, working out or something.

More after the jump.

Three Positives

Missouri > Circumstances. Tricky road trip, altitude, a desperate opponent, a young QB's first long-distance start...and Mizzou won. We can analyze data all we want, but this could have been a hornets' nest, and Mizzou handled it well, making all the big plays when the game was on the line in the second half.
The Receiving Corps. Needless to say, when your top three receivers combine for 20 catches, 341 yards, and three touchdowns, the receiving corps is a strength. Danario can do it all, Jared Perry is a master of the screen, and Wes Kemp is great on both out routes and deep balls. Again, I could go a lot further into the numbers on this one, but why? The typical box score stats do just fine.
The Pass Rush. Or to specify, the Passing Downs Pass Rush. The "scorpion" defense is successfully doing exactly what it was supposed to do--get after the quarterback. Colin Kaepernick escaped the rush because he's Colin Kaepernick, but on 12 Passing Downs pass attempts, Mizzou registered three sacks and almost had a couple more. With this sort of pass rush, it's no wonder our pass defense as a whole is looking better. You can still complete short passes on us on Standard Downs, but in the grand scheme of things, that's allowable. You can complete those passes against just about anybody, not just Missouri.

From here on out, against Nebraska and beyond, the key for Missouri will be forcing Passing Downs. Clearly Nebraska's personnel is completely different than Nevada's--Zac Lee is obviously less mobile than Kaepernick, but NU will also have more receiving threats to worry about...plus they actually have a tight end--not sure Nevada does, really. How Mizzou uses the next week and a half to work on its weaknesses, and how it defines its weaknesses, will go a long way toward defining the season.

Three Negatives

Another slow start. If there's one single difference between this year's Missouri team and the Chase Daniel-led Missouri team, it's first-quarter stats. The first time Mizzou touched the ball, they went three-and-out. The first time Nevada touched the ball, they scored a touchdown. Granted, Mizzou was done a favor with Vai Taua's muffed punt, and they were able to get a field goal on their second-chance first possession; but in all, Missouri was -0.316 in Q1 S&P margin. Eventually this will bite us.
The interior defensive line. I'm not at all ready to label this a weakness, but the fact is, while Jaron Baston made a handful of really nice plays, when he wasn't making a play, there were holes wide open for Nevada between the tackles. One game does not define a unit, but they failed that test, and obviously with Roy Helu, Jr., on the horizon, this is at least a bit of a concern. I'm not at all worried about Helu's ability to get outside--he's not a burner, and our perimeter speed is absolutely fantastic, as shown by guys like Andrew Gachkar and Jacquies Smith and the plays they made against Nevada. But interior rushes were a huge success for Nevada, and now Missouri has to prepare for a better running team. Or at least, a team with better running backs. Nothing against Luke Lippincott--he did a helluva job--but Helu's better.
Duh...the running game. On This Week in Mizzou Football, Gary Pinkel mentioned that most defenses this year (everybody but Bowling Green) have aimed to take away the run at all costs. Simply because Blaine Gabbert has been so successful throwing the ball, I don't expect many defenses to focus on that as much. That alone should open up some running lanes for Derrick Washington, who aside from the late-Q2 fumble, I thought actually ran pretty well. He still doesn't get arm tackled, and he falls forward a lot...but he's just having to make moves too early, and the line isn't blocking well enough, period.

I should also mention that I think the people who are complaining about the slow-developing runs are missing the point. This team has produced three straight 1,000-yard rushers with these running plays. The slow development also allows the blockers to do their thing, so if the blocking is good, the speed of the runs really does not matter. The plays aren't the problem--the blocking, and the successful shooting of gaps, are.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

Circumstances

You've got a young quarterback making his first out-of-state start (and for that matter, you've got a team with almost 30 frosh/sophs on the two-deep playing really far away from home for the first time). You've got altitude. You've got a team that has gone from simply being motivated by revenge against Missouri to being motivated by a desperate need to make something (anything) positive happen. You've got a two-timezone trip west. All of these things are working in Nevada's favor.

Mission accomplished. This wasn't exactly a hostile environment--less than 20,000 fans filled the 30,000 seat stadium, and a decent number of those were Mizzou fans. Regardless, Mizzou handled it pretty well, especially their quarterback. Nevada played well, and I would expect that they'll have no trouble making a bowl game if they continue to play like that, but Missouri was better.

Passing Downs

Nevada wins this game by forcing Blaine Gabbert into making mistakes he hasn't made yet. Those will almost certainly come in Passing Downs. Minimize the number of Passing Downs Gabbert faces, and you minimize the risk of mistakes. That means a) good running, especially early in the game, b) no drops, and c) no penalties. You want the Nevada crowd to get into the game, and the Nevada team to get its confidence back? Face a lot of 3rd-and-9's and see what happens. Again, Missouri is the better overall team here, but this is still a dangerous game because of what Missouri could do to Missouri.

Big fat fail here--penalties and drops weren't a problem, but obviously running was--but it didn't matter. Thanks to Nevada's successful run defense, Missouri faced far too many passing downs...and did just fine. Let's not push the limits on our sudden Passing Downs effectiveness, however.

Tackling

Tackle well, shadow Kaepernick, don't give up big gains, and you give your young offense more margin for error. Nevada's big-play potential just hasn't made an appearance yet this year, and they might need Missouri's help in breaking out.

In the end, this one probably won the game. Yes, Kaepernick escaped the rush on his touchdown run, but that was only one of two scores Nevada managed when the game was "close." Most of Kaepernick's passes were short (ten yards or less), and only once did a Missouri defender miss the tackle and allow a bigger gain. It's pretty clear that the Missouri strategy on Passing Downs is to not blitz much, let "The Scorpion" get after the quarterback, and let 6-7 defenders form a cloud in the secondary and either make the tackle immediately (if the QB gets a throw off) or break up the pass. With good tackling, that's a winning defensive strategy.

Summary

Obviously, stat nerds don't particularly like the "A win is a win" cliche, but that's really all I wanted to get from this game, and Missouri got it. They're undefeated in non-conference play over the last four years now, and if nothing else, that all but assures that Goal #1 for the season--bowl eligibility--is in the bag. Goal #2--competing for a North title? We'll learn about this one next Thursday night. Missouri's initial "+" numbers don't look too hot right now, and it's easy to figure out why. They dominated an Illinois team that got dominated by Ohio State. They beat a Nevada team that got dominated by Notre Dame. Bowling Green followed up a well-gameplanned performance against Missouri by losing at Marshall and getting blown out by Boise State.

What we've learned about this team is that a) what we thought would be a concern (QB play, big-play threats at WR, pass defense) isn't...and b) this team still has plenty of concerns. Making any serious judgements beyond that would be crazy, though, and there's a pretty easy reason why: look at 2007. The 2007 season showed that Missouri's coaches use the non-conference season to prepare for the conference season. That year, the defense that gave up 100+ yards to Illinois State's Geno Blow would soon hold just about every 2007 conference opponent below its season averages. We have no idea what type of adjustments this staff will be making before next Thursday night, but it's pretty clear that, for better or worse, adjustments will be made. Gary Pinkel and his staff now know what they have to work with--now let's see what they do with it.

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 14:30:19 -0000

You had to wait an extra day for it, but you have to wait a day less for the actual game, so that balances out, right?

Image via the Reno Gazette-Journal

Offense

Nevada: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

A BTBS look at the Nevada Offense

Close S&P: 0.802 (National Rank: 52nd)
Close Success Rate: 52.5% (14th)
Close PPP: 0.28 (97th)

Rushing Success Rate: 57.9% (7th)
Rushing PPP: 0.35 (37th)
Rushing S&P: 0.929 (14th)

Passing Success Rate: 43.5% (39th)
Passing PPP: 0.16 (115th)
Passing S&P: 0.592 (102nd)

Standard Downs S&P: 0.942 (37th)
SD Rushing S&P: 0.974 (16th)
SD Passing S&P: 0.324 (96th)

Passing Downs S&P: 0.509 (92nd)
PD Rushing S&P: 0.531 (64th)
PD Passing S&P: 0.506 (97th)

Red Zone S&P: 0.609 (116th)

Q1 S&P: 0.916 (36th)
Q2 S&P: 0.655 (89th)
Q3 S&P: 0.911 (35th)
Q4 S&P: 0.882 (27th)

1st Down S&P: 1.024 (12th)
2nd Down S&P: 0.664 (88th)
3rd Down S&P: 0.678 (77th)

Line Yards/Carry: 3.41 (22nd)
Standard Downs Sack Rate: 7.5% (108th)
Passing Downs Sack Rate: 0.0% (1st)

(Here's your reminder that these are not "+" numbers, meaning they are not adjusted for strength of schedule. It's pretty hard to do that when a team's only played two games. This is important to remember when looking at the UNR defense especially, and in all it's a reminder that these numbers should not be taken 100% at face value. That said, these are per-play measures, so they will still tell you infinitely more than simply "Team A is averaging ___ yards per game," or something like that.)

Even if you don't have a clue about S&P and don't care to have a clue, a quick perusal of these rankings paints a pretty quick, clear picture of Nevada and where it has struggled. We've all heard about how poorly Nevada has played this year, but in reality they've only performed poorly in certain circumstances. In Standard Downs (1st downs, 2nd-and-5 or less, 3rd-and-3 or less), the Wolf Pack rushing attack has been just about as good as it was supposed to be. At least, they've been as efficient as they were supposed to be. It appears that teams are reining them in pretty well, and with a pretty pathetic passing attack, it makes sense why. If defenses don't have to even acknowledge the passing game, they can gang up on the run.

And really, that has been the major issue for Nevada this year. Maybe Colin Kaepernick is trying too hard to make plays, maybe the play-calling has been poor...bottom line is, two games into the season Nevada has no passing threat whatsoever. Getting back home and relaxing a bit (if it's possible to relax in what has become a pretty anti-Ault atmosphere) could help, but at this exact moment they've proven nothing.

Quarterback

Kaepernick's rushing ability, combined with his skill on passing downs, made Nevada's offense a major threat to score at pretty much any moment in 2008. But they didn't score at any moment. Why? Because they weren't the best at staying out of Passing Downs. It doesn't matter how good you are in Passing Downs--your odds are still better in Standard Downs, and the more Passing Downs you face, the more likely you are to fail even if you pull off a few great drive-saving plays. The Standard Downs success must improve.

Colin Kaepernick: 37-for-61 passing, 400 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT, 6.6 yards per pass, 108.0 QB Rating. Also, 17 carries, 63 yards, long: 17.

The Standard Downs success has not improved. That said, it hasn't really regressed either--Nevada's Standard Downs S&P has fallen from 0.966 to 0.942, which is relatively negligible in the end. The problem is, the Passing Downs that were a bit of an issue are a complete and total debacle this year. Their Passing Downs production has fallen 32% thus far, and in 61 overall pass attempts, Kaepernick has thrown one touchdown pass and four interceptions. As Missouri fans learned with Brad Smith, if opponents aren't scared of the pass, they can shadow the run a bit more, and though Kaepernick is still capable of making plays with the defense focused on him, he's simply not going to make as many plays.

Should the Passing Downs struggles be blamed on Kaepernick? The receivers? The coach? I haven't seen a single second of either Nevada game, so obviously I don't know for sure. I do know that Nevada left about 17 points off the board against Notre Dame and blew multiple scoring opportunities, which means that a) they did in fact create scoring opportunities, and b) they (Kaepernick included) shot themselves in the foot eventually. I also know that Kaep's completion percentage has gone up, meaning there might be an issue with receivers not being able to actually make a tackler miss and get downfield. Obviously we'll see tonight what was the cause and the struggles will be sustained now that they're back at home.

Running Back

Few teams in the country are more experienced at running back than the Wolfpack will be in 2009. Vai Taua rushed for 1,521 yards in 2008 (6.4 per carry) as a sophomore, and he will return as the #1 guy. But meanwhile, #2 man Luke Lippincott was recently granted medical hardship year and will return in 2009 having rushed for 1,420 yards in 2007 before being sidelined with a knee injury. They have 633 career carries, pretty good for a 1-2 combination. Then, #3 man Brandon Fragger brings an extra 800 career rushing yards (and 22 receptions) to the table.

Vai Taua: 32 carries, 209 yards, 6.5 per carry, two touchdowns, plus five catches, 42 yards.
Luke Lippincott: 9 carries, 52 yards, 5.8 per carry

Clearly they've been holding up their end of the bargain. Again, Nevada has been relatively efficient in terms of moving the ball on Standard Downs. It's what happens when the RBs are stopped for a short gain that is the problem.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Removing the 115 catches, 1,761 yards, and 12 touchdowns that Marko Mitchell and Mike McCoy brought to the table last year, all that's left is Chris Wellington (42 for 632 and 6 TDs), TE Virgil Green (13 for 136, 1 TD), and Arthur King (10 for 96). The Wolfpack have a lot of hope pinned to redshirt freshman Brandon Wimberley, who had a wonderful year on the scout team and looked good in the spring. If he and Wellington can approximate Mitchell and McCoy, the Nevada passing attack may be good enough to keep defenses from keying on the run.

WR Tray Session (So.): 12 catches, 137 yards, 11.4 per catch.
WR Brandon Wimberly (RSFr.): 9 catches, 140 yards, 15.6 per catch, 1 TD.
WR Chris Wellington (Jr.): 6 catches, 49 yards
TE Virgil Green (Jr.): 6 catches, 37 yards

Aaaaand that's it. Only four WR/TEs have caught passes thus far, suggesting little depth, and only one of the four is averaging more than 11.5 yards per catch, suggesting little explosivness. Again, it's early, and one good game could completely change perceptions (just look at Florida State, described as "on fire" on an ESPN commercial this morning, when seven days ago they were on the ropes after almost losing to Jacksonville State...perceptions change in milliseconds), but for now this unit has done nothing to alleviate the major concern for this offense heading into 2009, which was that nobody would be able to replace Marko Mitchell as the go-to, big-play threat. Wimberly may be well on his way, but it's still early in his first season on the field. An even bigger problem, though, is apparently depth.

Offensive Line

For [Mizzou] to hold Taua and Fragger to just 76 yards on 20 carries was extremely impressive, as was Mizzou's holding the overall UNR attack to just a 0.713 S&P. Unfortunately for Mizzou, their own defensive line is a lot less experienced in 2009, while Nevada's offensive line should be as good or better. Their 62 returning career starts rank them third in the WAC, and they've got 2-3 all-conference candidates in Alonzo Durham, Mike Gallett, and gigantic John Bender. We're all high on the threesome of Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter; well, Durham and Gallett will make up one of the better pairs of tackles Mizzou will face this year.

The O-line appears to be holding up its end of the bargain, at least to an extent. With a running quarterback, it's impossible to glean much from Sack Rates. Have they protected Kaepernick really well on Passing Downs (leading to 0 sacks), or is Kaepernick either evading the rush or making throws too quickly? Are defenders backing off and trying to contain Kaepernick instead of coming straight at him? Is an awful Standard Downs sack rate the sign of poor protection, or is Kaepernick staying in the pocket far too long, looking to make a play? The OL has done well in run-blocking, and I thought they'd be pretty good heading into the season, so I'm going to assume that they've at least been decent in the first two games. Either way, I'm a lot more comfortable with Missouri's defensive line and a little less sold on Nevada's offensive line. At worst, I think this matchup ends up being a draw.

---

Defense

Nevada: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

A BTBS look at the Nevada Defense

Close S&P: 1.066 (117th)
Close Success Rate: 52.4% (116th)
Close PPP: 0.54 (118th)

Rushing Success Rate: 53.3% (111th)
Rushing PPP: 0.30 (80th)
Rushing S&P: 0.830 (106th)

Passing Success Rate: 51.4% (114th)
Passing PPP: 0.84 (119th)
Passing S&P: 1.353 (120th)

Standard Downs S&P: 0.969 (108th)
SD Rushing S&P: 0.839 (95th)
SD Passing S&P: 1.244 (114th)

Passing Downs S&P: 1.011 (117th)
PD Rushing S&P: 0.531 (69th)
PD Passing S&P: 1.672 (120th)

Red Zone S&P: 1.537 (119th)

Q1 S&P: 1.028 (115th)
Q2 S&P: 1.002 (107th)
Q3 S&P: 1.033 (112th)
Q4 S&P: 0.862 (97th)

1st Down S&P: 1.010 (115th)
2nd Down S&P: 0.993 (111th)
3rd Down S&P: 0.924 (106th)

Line Yards/Carry: 2.95 (78th)
Standard Downs Sack Rate: 3.7% (71st)
Passing Downs Sack Rate: 6.3% (71st)

Oy. Nevada's best ranking anywhere on this list is 71st. Now...again...Notre Dame has a very good offense (or at least they did before Michael Floyd went down--we'll see now), so a strength-of-schedule adjustment will help the Pack here. But still. There's bad, and there's bad, and I think Nevada's going to get the italicization treatment.

One other disclaimer: Nevada's only played two games, so the two long passes to Michael Floyd of 70 and 88 yards could be, by themselves, skewing these numbers. But being that we thought the secondary would be a concern heading into the season, and being that Missouri's WR corps has looked quite good for 2.5 games this year (they didn't in the first half against Bowling Green), this is still obviously a positive sign for Mizzou.

Defensive Line

To say the defensive line is the strength of the Nevada defense is a major understatement. As sophomores, ends Kevin Basped and Dontay Mach combined for 36 tackles for loss and 21.5 sacks last year. They both return, as do backups Daniel Agaiava and Ryan Coulson, who combined for another three TFLs in limited time. Now, it should be noted that Nevada registered no sacks on Chase Daniel last year, not even a QB hurry. Basped did manage 1.5 TFLs, but Chase Daniel was not touched all game, and while Daniel and his senior pocket presence are gone in 2009, the Mizzou offensive line should be as good or better.

Kevin Basped: 2.5 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack, 1 pass break-up
Dontay Mach: 9.5 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 QB hurry

Mach's held up his end of the bargain, but Basped has been underwhelming so far. Tackles Nate Agaiava and Zack Madonick have been serviceable, combining for 7.0 tackles and 2.0 TFL. In all, though, Nevada mas managed just two sacks in two games. It's no wonder the Wolf Pack is apparently considering sending the house at Gabbert instead of dropping seven into coverage like Bowling Green--they probably can't get in Gabbert's face without doing so.

Linebackers

Gone is rock solid Jonathan Mauga, and into the starting lineup (probably) move Brandon Marshall (8.5 of 33 tackles went for loss, another high %) and big Mike Bethea. Looking at the stats, you pretty quickly see that Nevada's LBs play quite close to the line of scrimmage, which is great for defending the run...and not so much defending the pass. It puts a lot of pressure on the secondary, and in 2008, the secondary didn't respond too well. What about 2009?

Mike Bethea: 12.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 sack
James-Michael Johnson: 11.5 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 QB hurry
Brandon Marshall: 8.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 pass break-ups

If there has been a strength on this defense, then the LBs would probably be it. They are making plays just like they did last year. Again, though, a) Nevada has managed just two sacks, and b) the secondary has been repeatedly roasted.

In all, if there's a bright spot to Nevada's defense, it's that they've racked up 13.5 tackles for loss, mostly against the run. If Derrick Washington isn't running well, and they can stop him in the backfield enough, Missouri will be forced into Passing Downs. In Blaine Gabbert's first true road game as a starter, Missouri wants to avoid Passing Downs at all costs.

Secondary

The good news for Nevada is, their safeties are ball hawks. Jonathon Amaya had four picks in 2008, and Mo Harvey added three from a backup role. The bad news is, as I've already repeatedly mentioned, when they didn't make the big play, they were giving up one. Amaya and #1 CB Antoine Thompson are both seniors, as are Harvey and likely backup CB Cameron Bayne. There is experience here, but pressure will be on sophomore Isaiah Frey and a batch of redshirt freshmen trying to break their way into the rotation. Nevada clearly wants to attack with their front seven, meaning they need skill, smarts and speed from the secondary (but really, who doesn't?). Their smarts will improve with experience, but...speed? They apparently need some.

I was going to put some individual stats here, but...it's nothing good. Nevada has intercepted zero passes and broken up only five (the secondary accounts for only two of them). They're giving up 12.7 yards per pass, which is insanely high. Take away Floyd's two bombs, and the average is 9.3, which is still terrible. How terrible? SMU was worst in the country in this category last year...and they gave up just 9.0 per pass. Bad. REALLY, REALLY bad.

In all, Nevada's only hope is what I mentioned above--stopping the run enough to force Mizzou into Passing Downs and hope for some bad decisions from Gabbert. Having witnessed the first half of the Bowling Green game, I know that that strategy holds at least a small chance of working, but...eesh. That secondary is just terrible.

Special Teams

Brad Langley's a decent punter, but they don't return a dangerous return man (though one might materialize, I guess), and they'll feature a new kicker, who might or might not be good (you never really know in advance). In a game full of interesting matchups--Nevada seemingly having the advantage on the ground, Missouri in the air--things could swing on special teams play, and neither unit has a distinct advantage here.

Punt Returns Rank: 58th
Net Punting Rank: 44th
Kickoff Returns Rank: 33rd
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 112th

Field Goals: 0-for-1
PATs: 0-for-1

So...Mike Ball (five returns, 32.8 average) is a pretty good kickoff returner. That is at least a bit of a concern since Missouri is only 82nd in the country in Opponents' Kickoff Returns. Other than that? Um, not very good stuff from Nevada here. And yes, Nevada has attempted only one PAT in two games (they went for two on their other two TDs versus Colorado State)...and they missed it. It's been a comedy of errors for Chris Ault's Wolf Pack so far this year.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Circumstances

We discussed this on Saturday's podcast. Looking at statistics, results, recruiting rankings, previous head-to-head matchups, whatever you like--it's pretty clear that Missouri is and has been a better football team than Nevada. But that won't really matter tonight if Missouri is overtaken by circumstance. You've got a young quarterback making his first out-of-state start (and for that matter, you've got a team with almost 30 frosh/sophs on the two-deep playing really far away from home for the first time). You've got altitude. You've got a team that has gone from simply being motivated by revenge against Missouri to being motivated by a desperate need to make something (anything) positive happen. You've got a two-timezone trip west. All of these things are working in Nevada's favor.

And that's all that's working in Nevada's favor at the moment. Missouri is a solid passing team playing against a god-awful pass defense. Their biggest concerns on defense (secondary) are neutralized by Nevada's biggest concern on offense (passing). Nevada's whole program is on the verge of being turned on by its fanbase. You get the feeling that if Missouri actually starts strong for once, this one will be in the bag by the second quarter. But Missouri isn't a strong-starting team. And they haven't encountered a situation like this before, at least much of the current personnel hasn't. Get past the circumstances of the moment, and Missouri wins the game. Easier said than done.

Passing Downs

I mentioned this above. Nevada wins this game by forcing Blaine Gabbert into making mistakes he hasn't made yet. Those will almost certainly come in Passing Downs. Minimize the number of Passing Downs Gabbert faces, and you minimize the risk of mistakes. That means a) good running, especially early in the game, b) no drops, and c) no penalties. You want the Nevada crowd to get into the game, and the Nevada team to get its confidence back? Face a lot of 3rd-and-9's and see what happens. Again, Missouri is the better overall team here, but this is still a dangerous game because of what Missouri could do to Missouri.

Tackling

Tackle well, shadow Kaepernick, don't give up big gains, and you give your young offense more margin for error. Nevada's big-play potential just hasn't made an appearance yet this year, and they might need Missouri's help in breaking out.

Really, all three of these keys are tied with two themes: brains and fundamentals. Don't lose your heads, don't make silly mistakes, and you probably win this game. Or at least you force Nevada to play really well to win, and they haven't done that since early-November of last year.

Prediction

I'm more nervous about what Missouri is going to do in this game than Nevada. We've seen this situation a thousand times in college football--the underdog home team is desperate for a breakthrough win, and they probably need some help from the favored road team to get it done. But if the favorite does them some favors early, then confidence and momentum can lead the underdog to a win. It annoys me because if Missouri does lose this game, I know we'll see the Tim Griffin's of the world immediately breaking out the "Same Old Missouri" talk, when really a) Missouri has had about one true letdown game (Iowa State 2006) in the last 4+ seasons (I don't count OSU and KU of last year because they were both solid teams, and I don't count New Mexico in 2005 because...well, I'm pretty sure UNM was actually better than Missouri in 2005), and b) every team in the country has had at least one letdown game in that time. Old perceptions die hard, I guess, but if Missouri loses this one, it won't so much be "same old Missouri" as "team that's simply too young not to face some setbacks." At least, that's the situation in my own opinion.

The numbers say Missouri by 5.6 points in this one. Honestly, I don't see that happening. I either see Missouri winning big (17+), or Nevada winning a tight one. But I am made the fool when I go against the stats, so we'll say Missouri wins 34-28 in this one.

SB Nation - Colin Kaepernick

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Offensive Player of the Year

Defensive Player of the Year

Coach of the Year

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Play of the game

Technical awards

Boise State beats Nevada 44-33, wins WAC championship and stays undefeated

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Doug Martin

Kellen Moore

Aaron Tevis

Dan Paul

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Boise State on defense

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Nevada's season-to-date

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Nevada on defense

Nevada special teams

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Mizzou-Nevada: Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou(31)

Nevada(21)

Reactions

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

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Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Nevada Preview

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Nevada
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