SB Nation - Moses Harris

Top 5 Mid Major - Big Ten Games of 2009: #5 Wisconsin v. Fresno State

grahamfiller10 — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 03:11:51 -0000

Some of the Big Ten's most egregious losses came to Mid-Major opponents in 2008. Consider:

Michigan fell to Toledo, and I know 2008 was an aberration, but it was still quite shocking.
By losing to a hungry Western Michigan team in Detroit, Illinois cemented its reputation as overrated and soft.
Indiana was blown out early by Ball State and nipped by CMU, putting everyone on notice that a decent MAC team eclipses a Big Ten cellar dweller.

In partnership with Mid-Major Madness (MMM), SBN's haven for non-BCS coverage, we present to you the top five match-ups between Big Ten and Mid-Major football teams. At number five stands an important game for the U Dub diehards. Can the Badgers overrun an experienced and fearless Fresno team? Will Pat Hill's mantra of "play anyone, anywhere" pay off with a huge upset in Madison?

Game Hype

MMM: The Bulldogs will head up to Madison, Wisconsin in week two of the 2009 season to play arguably their toughest game of the season. This will be a match-up of two very tough teams that could both use a big out-of-conference win to start the season with some momentum.

For the Bulldogs being the underdog is nothing new; head coach Pat Hill is regarded as one the best in the business at using the underdog status to motivate his to team to big upset victories. More significantly, because Hill's teams have somewhat underachieved the last few seasons, he'll be feeling the heat this year and a big win early on in the season could really help reduce some of that tension.

The Bulldogs look to have a much-improved team from their 2008 campaign in which they finished with a disappointing 7-6 record. The biggest question for them is who will be able to fill the hole left by the three-year starting quarterback, Tom Brandstater. If they can find someone to effectively run the offense and utilize its arsenal of weapons, including electrifying running back Anthony Harding, they'll have a shot at pulling off the upset. Playing on such a big stage so early in the season will be a lot to ask a young quarterback to do, but unfortunately Fresno has no real alternative. This game will a good barometer of Hill's ability to develop young talent and get them ready to execute on a grand stage.

TRE: Bielema's struggles at Wisconsin have led to great drinking game ideas. Idea 1: Every time an announcer says "hot seat" or some variation during a UW game, drink. Idea 2: Every time the cameraman zooms in on Bielema looking confused, angry, or lost in the clouds, drink.

This season must feel, for UW fans, like standing on a slanted roof. On one side is the former glory of the last 10-12 years and on the other side is the strange possibility of being a mediocre team for a second straight season. It seems like the Badgers could fall either way.

What do Foxy Brown and I have in common? You can find both of us at the hot spot...

Another quick thought - This isn't the same Fresno team that almost took out Reggie Bush's USC team in '05. But this also isn't the 1 loss Badgers from three years ago.

Key Matchup

Badger QB vs. Bulldog Defense

MMM: The Badgers yet again have another dilemma regarding the starting quarterback role. It seems as if they enter every season not knowing who is going to jockey their offense. The leading candidate during this off season has been Dustin Sherer, due to his [limited] experience in running the Badger offense. However Sherer did not exhibit the most impressive play during the 2008 season where he threw for only 6 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. Sherer seemed unstable during 2008, but that can be written off to inexperience.

Pat Hill's defense looks very impressive heading into the 2009 season. They have major playmakers returning and will most certainly improve greatly from a season ago. The most notable returnee is Ben Jacobs who will anchor one of the toughest linebacking cores in the WAC. Jacobs led the Bulldogs in 2008 with 113 tackles and Hill knows his young stud will produce even more in 2009. The Bulldogs biggest problem on defense in 2008 was blown coverage's. This will be different in 2009, as the once juvenile secondary has matured considerably. Moses Harris is going to be a major force in the revamped unit. Harris recorded 75 tackles along with 2 forced fumbles last year. Fresno's defense must create more turnovers and an experienced defense will help accomplish this.

TRE: I agree completely. If the vaunted run game is slowed early, the entire state of Wisconsin is going to be staring at Sherer. Can Wisconsin run play action and get Sherer out of the pocket? Will Garrett Graham play like the possible All-American candidate we know he is? And will Bielema tinker with Sherer's loopy mechanics before the season begins?

Significance

MMM: There is no question that Pat Hill's team is capable of pulling great upsets. The team has done so throughout his tenure and certainly posses the talent to do so again this year. This game will be an excellent indicator for Fresno's 2009 season. If they win, it will go along way towards giving them the courage and confidence needed to be successful during conference play. They are set to play Boise St. the following week and a big win in Madison could really give them the extra boost need to beat their in-conference rival.

TRE: Big Ten v Fresno = Big Midwest favorite, usually. Even the horrendous Wisconsin team from last year went undefeated during its out of conference regular season match-ups. However, a closer look at those games show that both Fresno and Cal-Poly (?!) came within a few plays of pulling upsets. This is the most vulnerable Wisky team of the Bielema years and a loss here spreads more Anti-Big Ten grumbling throughout America.

Predictions

MMM: Both teams are fairly similar talent wise, making this an even battle. Ironically enough they both have similar problems in the quarterback position and whichever team addresses the issue first will be victorious on September 12.

Playing at home, the Badgers will have a distinct advantage. Sherer should show much improvement from 2008 as he is now more acquainted with Bielema's offensive schemes. It is the perfect opportunity for him to break out of his shell and show the Badger faithful his true talents. He will need to minimize his turnovers and if he can do so should lead his team to victory. This will be a hard fought match by both teams that will come down to the wire. Wisconsin 17, Fresno State 14.

TRE: Coach B has made it clear that he isn't modifying the offense or stepping away from the power running. If the big backs get their pads pointed downfield, this game will be over. I see some surprise on the Fresno sideline when Clay runs over some smaller defenders early in the game. Wisconsin 24, Fresno State 14.

Extra Coverage from MMM: A Fresno State season preview where MMM drops this bomb:

"The Bulldog fans are now beginning to see through the mask put up by Hill's upset wins and are beginning to question his coaching ability."

Well then...Here is a list of BCS teams that Hill has beaten during his reign at FSU -

'00 - Cal

'01 - Wisconsin, Colorado, Oregon State

'02 - Georgia Tech

'03 - UCLA, Oregon State

'04 - Washington, Kansas State, Virginia,

'07 - Kansas State, Georgia Tech

'08 - UCLA, Rutgers

First Look At Fresno State's "Mere Tuneup"

Nestor — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 02:00:06 -0000

No matter how many Fresno State fans drive down the I-5 this weekend, the game is setting up as Bruins being huge underdogs in their own home stadium. The ESPN game preview is in fact calling it nothing more than a “mere tuneup” for Fresno State:

When Fresno State scheduled a road game against UCLA, the Bulldogs and coach Pat Hill probably didn't figure it would look like a mere tuneup heading into the WAC season.

If UCLA plays anything like it did for the last two games, it would be hard to imagine any other outcome.

There is not much we can say in response given how our team has performed in last two games. And it doesn’t seem to far off the mark from our off season projection when we marked this game as a “tossup” writing that “the prospects for the Bruins in this game depends on how the offense is performing under Olson or Craft or Forcier with a brand new OL.” Well the results from last two weekends are not too encouraging to say the least. So Craft and his team-mates are going to have their hands full against a team that will be looking to make some kind of statement with their first ever victory against UCLA at the Rose Bowl.

Fresno State is coming into the game after a thrilling 55-54 double OT win against Toledo in which Toledo gambled and lost. Toledo went for two rather than kick the extra point following their TD. Toledo offense rolled up 598 yards of balanced offense with 297 yards coming via their ground attack.

As mentioned earlier today Fresno is also coming into this game missing two of their best DL. So the game presents an opportunity for the Bruin OL to build upon its improved performance against Arizona, particularly if we get Ray Cater back in full speed and have Bell available for action.

We don’t need to go over our offensive statistics since we have been barraged with all the gory statistics from last two weeks. As for Fresno State here are few numbers that kind of jumped out to me:

FSU opponents have been averaging 4.68 yards per rushing attempts (557 yards in 119 attempts
FSU’s passing defense has been pretty decent holding opposing QBs to a very average 52.7 percent completion rate

FSU’s defense is headlined by their MLB Brandon Jacobs. From Kevin Pearson’s notes at PE.com:

BEN JACOBS (6-3, 240, So.): The Bulldogs middle linebacker, Jacobs leads the team with 28 tackles, including three for a loss. He has also recovered a fumble and blocked a kick this season.

The numbers highlighted above indicate that FSU has a solid secondary. That was the assessment in this preview by Rivals.com before the season:

STRONGEST AREA: The secondary returns cornerback Damion Owens, strong safety Moses Harris and free safety Marvin Haynes from a team that ranked third in the WAC in pass-efficiency defense, though Haynes still must beat out senior Jake Jorde to keep his starting job. Owens, Harris and Haynes have two years of starting experience each. The only hole is at the second cornerback spot, where standout kick returner A.J. Jefferson gets first dibs at replacing departed three-year starter Damon Jenkins.

We have talked all week about how the pressure is on Craft to produce this weekend. Hopefully the return of Bell and Carter will give him a decent ground game to work with this week. The key for Craft and UCLA’s offense will be gain 4-5 yards in first down so that they can get themselves in manageable 2nd and 3rd situations. Otherwise, if the offense gets itself into 3rd and long often, it will be another long afternoon at the Rose Bowl.

Meanwhile, on offense here are the key players per Pearson’s notes:

QB TOM BRANDSTATER (6-5, 225, Sr.): Brandstater is a highly regarded NFL prospect who is among the best quarterbacks the Bruins will see this season. He is big and smart, throwing for five touchdowns and one interception this season. He is averaging 224 passing yards per game.

TE BEAR PASCOE (6-5, 260, Sr.): Pascoe is likely one of the best tight ends UCLA will see this year. He leads the team with 11 receptions and is an adept blocker and will certainly create some tough matchups for the Bruins.

In addition to those two tailback Ryan Matthews is having a decent start to the season. He has rushed for 304 yards in 61 carries averaging 5 yards per carry (3TDs). More from Rival.com’s season preview, which once again headlines Pascoe:

STAR POWER: How good a tight end is senior Bear Pascoe? Ask Texas A&M. Pascoe scored three touchdowns in the Bulldogs' 47-45 triple-overtime loss to the Aggies last season. Pascoe finished with 45 catches for 553 yards and four touchdowns. He could emerge as one of the nation's top tight ends this season.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Fresno State has so much experience on offense that it will be tough for any first-year guy to get much playing time, but the Bulldogs' leading scorer still could end up being a redshirt freshman. We're referring to Kevin Goessling, the favorite to win the kicking job.

IT'S HIS TIME: Wide receiver Chastin West was one of Fresno State's most promising underclassmen after catching 33 passes for 365 yards as a freshman two years ago, but he missed 2007 with an injured left knee. If West can stay healthy for an entire season, he has star potential.

STRONGEST AREA: Fresno State was 14th in the nation in rushing offense and capped the season by running for 286 yards in the Humanitarian Bowl against a highly regarded Georgia Tech defense. And the Bulldogs delivered that big performance against the Yellow Jackets without leading rusher Ryan Mathews, who finished the season with 866 yards and 14 touchdowns. Mathews, Lonyae Miller and Anthony Harding are back after combining for 1,878 yards and 25 touchdowns last season. They will be running behind a veteran line that features left tackle Bobby Lepori, right guard Andrew Jackson and right tackle Kenny Avon.

WEAKEST AREA: Although Fresno State's line boasts plenty of experience, the departure of Ryan Wendell leaves a big hole at center. The Bulldogs are counting on senior Adam McDowell or sophomore Joe Bernardi to fill the void. This offense doesn't have many weaknesses, but the situation at center does offer cause for concern.

It will be interesting to see how the defense stacks up against Pascoe given the success Gronkowski and Pitta enjoyed against us last two weekends. One thing that could potentially help Walker is that Fresno State runs more of a traditional pro set offense and their QB doesn’t have the same mobility as Tuitatama.

Another data point that stuck out to me re. Fresno St

Once they get into the red zone they are deadly (91.67%) while their opponents convert 76.92% of red zone opportunities.

The obvious challenge for next weekend is for UCLA to play a mistake free football game and play solid special teams. We can’t afford to give FSU’s offense short field like we did to Arizona time after time last weekend. You can check out more numbers on Fresno State here and here.

Obviously we will have post more notes on FSU next couple of days. Meanwhile, we would love to hear your thoughts on how the Bruins can pull of this upset in this “tuneup” game for Fresno State.

GO BRUINS.