SB Nation - Daniel Dufrene

Alright guys, don't blow it now

BoilerTMill — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:47:26 -0000

I am trying to keep the good vibes going. If anyone listened to the Boiled Sports podcast Tuesday night I made a pretty bold statement. I said that as good as the Ohio State win was, losing to Illinois would be 10 times worse. As a result, I am watching the video of the Ohio State win as I write this, hoping it carries over into the blog.

It is true though. If we can beat Ohio State, there is absolutely no reason we should lose to Illinois. You do not often get a chance to play the best team in the conference, then the worst team in the conference the very next week. I would even take it a step further. With Ohio State, we may have played the best team on our schedule last week (though Oregon may be better since they have a real offense). I think Illinois is the worst team on our schedule. They proved last week they are worse than Indiana. I think they are worse than Toledo (who beat NIU last week) and Northern Illinois. This is a team that has quit on its season already. They need to win their remaining games (one of which is against one of the nation's last unbeaten teams) just to qualify for a bowl. Unless we see some unexpected fight from the Illini Saturday, they are done.

2008 Record: 5-7, 3-5 Big Ten

2009 Record: 1-5, 0-4

Bowl result: No Bowl

Blog Representation: Hail to the Orange

Series with Purdue: Illinois leads 41-37-6 (Purdue leads The Cannon portion 29-26-2)

Last Purdue win: 11/11/2006 at Illinois 42-31

Last Illinois win: 10/12/2002 at Illinois 38-31 (OT)

This may be one of the least celebrated trophy games in the Big Ten, but it is one of the closest overall. We have had the Cannon in our possession since 2003, but the recent two-year hiatus in the series means that we only have four straight wins. Speaking as a Purdue fan, the Illinois game really doesn't feel like much of a rivalry. There has never been a ton at stake, as both teams haven't exactly torn up the Big Ten at the same time for quite awhile.

Illinois offense:

This is the main reason that any loss to the Illini would be awful. Their offense, especially if you take away the 45-17 win over Illinois State (a 1-AA team), has been abysmal. That one win represents 45 of the 99 points the team has scored through six games. Not only has Illinois managed just one first half touchdown against a 1-A foe, they have only led one game against a 1-A opponent for about five minutes. That occurred last week at Indiana when the Illini led the Hoosiers 7-3 with 5:27 left in the first half. Illinois gave up 10 points in the final minute of the half, and never threatened again.

I don't even know who we will face at quarterback. Juice Williams (80 of 143, 4 touchdowns, 4 interceptions) is the Big Ten's most experienced quarterback, but he has already been benched in favored of Eddie McGee (21 of 41, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions). There is even talk of third string quarterback Jacob Charest, a redshirt freshman, getting some time Saturday. Charest has yet to take a snap in his collegiate career, so if he plays it will officially label Illinois as desperate. Illinois has only passed for 1,128 yards between Williams and McGee.

For a true preview of Saturday, just reverse the 9 and 4 on the jersey. The result of this play (a sack, strip, and fumble recovery for a TD) will likely be the same.

Whoever plays, they will likely become well acquainted with Ryan Kerrigan, Mike Neal, and the rest of our defensive line by the end of the day. The Illinois offensive line is among the worst in the Big Ten, giving up a league high 19 sacks. If our defensive line is not dominating and causing pressure all day something is severely wrong. This is especially true since these guys just played like warriors against Ohio State.

Illinois is not moving the ball well on the ground, either. Williams is the leading rusher with only 239 yards and one touchdown. Jason Ford (222-1), Daniel Dufrene (199-1), and Mikel Leshoure (163-2) form a running back by committee approach that is far from effective. McGee also has a pair of rushing touchdowns, so he is a threat to run if he plays. One has to remember though that the bulk of these numbers, running and passing, have been put up either against Illinois State or after the game is well decided. Illinois has not been in a game against a 1-A foe except last week against Indiana.

If they can get him the ball, there is a bit of a danger at wide receiver. Arrelious Benn was a preseason All-American, but he has only 22 catches for 271 yards and no touchdowns to lead Illinois receivers. As long as we cover him we will shut down Illinois' pathetic passing game. Jarred Fayson (11-119-1), Chris Duvalt (9-136-1), Leshoure (8-115-1), and A.J.Jenkins (7-100-1) have put up modest second half numbers, but again, this offense has literally done nothing in the first half of most games. They need to get the ball to Benn more, who is a playmaker, but they have been unable to.

Illinois defense:

This is a battered unit. They have already lost possibly their best player in Martez Wilson for the season. They may have lost their second best player, Donsay Hardeman, for his career last week. They are not getting to the quarterback with just six team sacks on the year. The offense is doing nothing to help them out, so the defense is getting worn down to the point where it is about as reliable as the Rhythm Method in preventing conception. They have also only forced seven turnovers (three interceptions, four fumbles), and three of those came against Illinois State. I kind of feel bad for them because they are undoubtedly playing hard, but they are getting zero help from their teammates.

Ian Thomas and Tavon Wilson lead the team in tackles with 43 apiece. Thomas has one of the team's sacks, while Wilson has one of the three interceptions. Doug Pilcher is a bit of a force on the defensive line as well. Pilcher has two sacks, 18 tackles, and an interception with a 41 yard return. Russell Ellington could also be a factor, as he has an interception with a 78 yard return. This is still not a fearsome unit.

Illinois is giving up over 28 points per game and their run defense is particularly bad. They are giving up about 180 yards on the ground, which is good for Ralph Bolden. Bolden has not had much room to run recently, and against Northwestern when he did have room we just kept fumbling the ball away. Look for Bolden to get over 100 yards for the first time since the Oregon game. McBurse and Taylor should also see some holes when they are in there. The pass defense is not much better, as it gives up 241 yards per game.

Honestly, we should only have trouble against their defense if we start giving the ball away again. Turnovers were still an issue last week against Ohio State, but we gave up no points off of them. Illinois does not force nearly as many turnovers as Ohio State does, so it once again comes down to us not shooting ourselves in the foot.

Illinois Special Teams:

And you thought their other units were bad. They have no punt return game (a long of nine yards), no kick return game (Benn is a dangerous returner, but only has a long of 33), and Matt Eller has hit on just half his field goals. Granted, the offense is not getting Eller in position to kick, as he is just 3 of 6 on the year with a long of 38.

One phrase we should get used to hearing is, "Anthony Santella is in punt formation". He averages almost six punts per game and has almost a 41 yard per kick average. Both coverage units on special teams for Illinois are merely average.

Intangibles:

This is a team that is already beaten. I watched part of Saturday night's game at Indiana and they had no hustle or emotion whatsoever. Beating them would officially end their bowl hopes, as there is no way they will win their five games after this and qualify at 6-6. This is Illinois' last shot to save its season, but given their body language and effort so far it would be a total shock to see them suddenly turn things on. Though Purdue and Illinois have similar record, Purdue has fought hard and has been in every single game. Illinois hasn't even been close, and they have rolled over and died since the opener against Missouri.

The one Illinois blog, Hail to the Orange, has already virtually given up and jumped to basketball content. Their last two game wraps of Rock Bottom and Failing on all Cylinders show that confidence in the football program is at an all time low. There is no doubt that Illinois has more talent than a lot of teams, but that talent is severely underperforming in all phases of the game at the moment. They are even one of the most penalized teams in the league. I am not even going to mention the gigantic Ron Zook intangible right now. Every writer in the Big Ten is saying enough about his epic level of fail at the moment.

Contractually obligated Ron Zook blog picture. He will likely soon have plenty of time for his hobbies, such as fighting Boilerdowd to the death.

Purdue, meanwhile, is as high as it has been in about five years. Even the 8-6 season of 2006 and 8-5 season of 2007 did not have a moment that was a tenth as important as last week against Ohio State. As long as we don't go out and pull a Northern Illinois we will be fine.

Keys to the game for Purdue:

Hogtie the team that showed up against Northern Illinois
Don't turn the ball over
Maintain last week's momentum
Run the ball with Bolden, McBurse, and Taylor
Dominate along the defensive line

If the Illini want to win any games in the Big Ten, they have to beat IU

Joe Kutsunis — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 01:56:36 -0000

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Game 6, the game which marks the half way point in the season, also a mark that more or less will seal the fate of any hopes for post season play. A win would put the team at 2-4 and technically still alive for a bowl game, a loss would put the team at 5 losses, and with a top 10 Cincinnati team and still on the schedule a 6th loss is almost guaranteed.

Worse though a loss this weekend would be to a team that before the season began was considered the worst team in the league. If the Illini lose to Indiana, what does that make the Illini?

Don't get me wrong, I am not expecting a loss on Saturday, this is still the same Hoosier team that gave up 55 to us last year, and the same Hoosier team that was thumped 47 to 7 last week against against Virginia. You know Al Groh's Virginia? The UVA team that lost to 1AA William and Mary? Yeah they got blown out by those guys.

Indiana should be an absolute slam dunk of a game, at almost every position last year they could not compete with the Illini. It is very telling then that even with all of this seemingly in favor of the Illini, I am still not confident.

Why should I be? What evidence does any fan have that this team will come out and play any better than it has? We can trash IU all we want (and we will) but frankly they have played better than the Illini this season. Hell they have 3 wins, which is 2 more than us. Indiana is a very bad football team, and to this point in the season we are worse.

Zook has yet to name a starter for Saturday, but the consensus among the media seems that it ought to be Juice. The second half against MSU last week was the best he has played all season and he has probably earned his chance to at least play his last games as a college player, rather than watch from the bench.

You never say that any game is a must win, but this game is a must win. I don''t want to break down what the Illini need to do to beat Indiana, because frankly if they played up to their potential it would take almost no game planning what so ever. We ran our basic offense up against this team last year and blew them off of the field. Jason Ford and Daniel Dufrene and Mikel Leshoure should run roughshod over this team. By far the toughest part of the schedule is behind us, if this team wants to make anything redeeming at all out of this season, it cannot wait another week.

Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. The Illinois Fighting Illini

Pete Rossman — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 10:00:35 -0000

TV: BIG TEN NETWORK, 12 PM ET, 11 AM CT

WEATHER REPORT (as of Thursday Afternoon): Partly Cloudy, 52 degrees, 10% chance of rain

Michigan State hasn't played the Fighting Illini since Homecoming of 2006, and if you remember that game, I feel sorry for you, myself, and anyone in the rooms around either of us. The white dwarf star that is was Juice Williams burst onto the scene, beating the Spartans 23-20 for Illinois' only win against a 1-A team that season. That was how bad the John L. Smith era was, lest you forget.

Today, it seems only fitting that Juice gets benched before this game, giving way to redshirt junior Eddie McGee. Will McGee's addition spark the Illini? Can MSU establish a decent running game this week? Will I be stunned like I was three years ago? The answers to these questions can be found after the jump.

ILLINOIS ON OFFENSE

Let's get to the main question on most Spartan fans' minds: How good is Eddie McGee? Let's take a look at his stats this season:

DATE	OPP	RESULT	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	LNG	TD	INT	RAT	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD
9/5	Missouri	L 37-9	4	9	36	44.4	19	0	0	78.04	2	11	5.5	6	0
9/12	Illinois State	W 45-17	13	17	164	76.5	27	1	1	165.15	18	55	3.1	16	2
9/26	@Ohio State	L 30-0	2	4	11	50.0	7	0	1	23.10	3	-3	-1.0	4	0
10/3	Penn State	L 35-17	DNP

And for Eddie's career:

YEAR	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YPA	LNG	TD	INT	SACK	RAT
2007	29	55	444	52.7	8.07	56	2	3	2	121.63
2008	4	9	59	44.4	6.56	30	0	0	0	99.51
2009	19	30	211	63.3	7.03	27	1	2	3	120.08

I think it's safe to say Eddie's not a significant upgrade in any way from Juice Williams. In fact, Eddie has a worse attempt-to-interception ratio than Juice (15 attempts to 1 INT for Eddie, 22.3 attempts to 1 INT for Juice). I interpret the quarterback switcheroo as a massive sign that Ron Zook has ascended from a mere councilman to mayor of [REDACTED], and the move won't make the Illini offense significantly better. Michigan State won't have to worry about the passing game as long as Arrelious Benn stays ignored (only 10 receptions in four games this season). As for quarterback scrambles and draws, the Spartans have shut down quarterback runs--both scripted and unscripted--for the most part this season.

The running attack is slightly better than the passing game. The Illini have averaged 3.1 yards a carry in their two Big Ten games this season (disclaimer - those games were against OSU and PSU). Jason Ford, their rushing leader, racked up 137 of his 173 yards in the Eastern Illinois game. Their second leading rusher will be on the bench, for he is Juice Williams. The one running back to be concerned about is Daniel Dufrene, who will either get busy livin' or get busy dyin' against Trevor Anderson and company (yup, Shawshank'd. Bonus trivia question - name the book the story was first in). Dufrene had 11 rushes for 54 yards against a good Penn State defense.

As for Michigan State, they should do exactly what they did during the first 55 minutes of the Michigan game. The Illini probably have the worst offense MSU has faced since Montana State, but with that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Illini have a couple long offensive drives, since Ohio State and Penn State have significantly better defenses than the Spartans.

ILLINOIS ON DEFENSE

Simply put, Illinois' weakness is team offenses with one vowel in their division classification. Missouri, OSU, and PSU all scored at least 30 points, while Eastern Illinois put up 17. If you're looking for a possible comparison point to how good the Illini defense might be, here's a hint: Akron, Temple, and Syracuse all allowed less points to Penn State than Illinois did. Even though Penn State did rein in the offense late in those early games...still.

Here's how the Illini have done defensively:

Team	Pass Yards	Run Yards	Total Yards	Yards Per Play
Missouri	325	117	442	6.14
Illinois State	354	44	398	5.53
Ohio State	82	236	318	5.39
Penn State	175	338	513	7.89

Missouri was unstoppable through the air, and Eastern Illinois passed because it was their only way to be effective. As for Ohio State and Penn State, the passing defense wasn't all that bad, as Penn State threw it 25 times in that game for an average of 7.0 yards per attempt. However, Penn State didn't need to pass when the running game picked up steam. Regarding Ohio State, Jim Tressel only calls passes under gunpoint.

The strategy for Michigan State is this: Use the pass to set up the run. Cousins has had little trouble with accuracy for passes under ten yards, and once the offense consistently gets at least five yards on first down (KJ's performed the math - throwing on first down is when the MSU offense is most effective), the run game should open up. I know this thought is an antithesis to one of the offense's central tenets, but Dantonio has shown he's not averse to a pass-heavy offense when Michigan State is behind.

ILLINIOIS ON SPECIAL TEAMS

The kicker for Illinois this season, Matt Eller, has been adequate, making 8 of 9 extra points and 3 of 4 field goals. However, that miss was on Eller's only attempt longer than 40 yards. Anthony Santella, the punter, hasn't shown a lot of power on his punts this season; he's averaging 38.5 yards per punt and has a long of 47 yards. The biggest threat on special teams is Arrelious Benn, who handles kick returns in addition to his receiving duties. He hasn't had a touchdown yet though, and Illinois has averaged less than 25 yards on its kick returns this season.

THE PREDICTION

I'm a little worried about this game. Illinois has played some tough opponents so far this season including two of the top three teams in the Big Ten. I'm pretty sure Illinois is better than what they've shown in their games against 1-A competition. However, Coach Zook's curious decision to bench Juice Williams leads me to one of two possible conclusions: Juice is more injured than anyone is letting on, or Zook is pressing the panic button WITH AN INTENSITY NOT SEEN BY MANKIND.

Michigan State, on the other hand, is coming off a win where the defense showed signs of life for the first time since the opener. I hope Cousins' ankle is 100%, because that 41-yard run in the Michigan game demonstrated why Cousins has the edge over Nichol - Cousins doesn't have more athletic ability, but he knows when to run and when to pass and has the ability to make the right read better than Nichol does currently. Hopefully the offensive line can help the running backs consistently get at least three yards per rush.

I feel like this is a game Michigan State should win, and very well needs to win to keep their bowl hopes alive. The Illini will look good at times, and this game is going to be closer than a lot of us would like. The Spartans will prevail though on...let's say a Cousins pass to B.J. Cunningham and a field goal.

MICHIGAN STATE 24, ILLINOIS 14

Juice Williams and the Downfall of the Illinois Offense

grahamfiller10 — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 05:41:51 -0000

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We'll save the cliched dialogue about Zook's hot seat and just go straight to details. A highly hyped Ilini offense put up 180 yards and 0 points in Columbus on Saturday. Quarterback play was mediocre, the line couldn't create holes, and the wide receivers had a ton of legit dropped balls. Time for analysis.

6-13, 34 yards, 1 INT

That would be Isiah Williams passing numbers at halftime. Let me break those down a little more.

He took every snap from the shotgun and didn't face intense pressure. Nonetheless, Juice threw a drive killing pick into quadruple coverage, while another pass skipped off a Buckeye defender surprised to see a ball thrown unimpeded at his numbers. There was only one attempt to go deep, something the Illini did all last year.

I counted four drops. Fayson dropped a ball on a simple crossing route and also mishandled a great cross-field throw from Juice. Arrelious Benn dropped one on the sideline and Daniel Dufrene couldn't handle a dump down that would have led to big yards. Yes, Law Buck, I know it was raining. But that didn't stop Williams from throwing some catchable passes.

That's the number of penalty yards accumulated by Illinois in the first half. Holding, delay of game, illegal formation...Pretty much the whole gamut of possible infractions for an offensive unit.

I know the O Line is young (49 combined starts before the season, 2nd lowest in the Big Ten). I know it was wet and OSU features a great defense. But when does Illinois start playing together as a unit?

4-2, 5-1

The formations that Ohio State played the entire game, spreading their linebackers all over the field. Little respect was given to the read option that destroyed OSU two years ago. After Juice ran for 35 yards in the first half on a couple successful QB draws up the middle, a simple adjustment (crash LB middle, send Thaddeus Gibson outside) helped lead to four sacks and the annihilation of the Illini run game.

Conclusion

Two games have showed us the exact same thing. The gashing run attack featured so prominently in '07 is gone. The zone read option is gone, because teams blitz a linebacker directly where Juice might run, unafraid of his passing prospects. The highly touted wide receivers (I called them the Big Ten's best) are dropping balls and unable to stretch the field vertically, something Fayson and Benn should be able to do. And Juice Williams, who I have ardently supported and whose talent I assumed would trump other issues, has been underthrowing routes and irresponsibly slinging balls into tight coverage.

Playing Penn State may not be the best medicine for Zook's slumping offense, but Michigan State's embattled secondary will be a sight for sore eyes in two weeks. This is a "back to basics" week, because I still believe the Illini have the firepower to score points. Here is a laundry list of things the Illini offense can work on this week -

Get Juice out of the pocket. Please. He's not effective as a straight drop passer. He doesn't throw a good sit down route on the sidelines, something the new OC is asking him to do. Last year, when Juice excelled, he moved around and heaved the ball around like a playmaker can and should.
If you insist on throwing the sideline routes, work on catching those balls. It's a different angle and Fayson looked unprepared to make those catches and get YAC.
Find a run game. The blocking isn't bad, but the O Line has broken down in the last two 2nd halves.
Don't bench Juice. His potential is off the charts, but he's got to be put in position to succeed, something the above changes might do.

The last time the Illini went to Columbus...

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 18:42:01 -0000

Saturday's game is important for all of the obvious reasons of course, its the start of the Big Ten schedule, the Illini are 1-1, its the first of two top 20 teams the Illini will face in back to back weeks. But for me it is important because Columbus Ohio is where the signature win for Zook and Juice took place, a game in which the then unranked Illini took down the #1 Buckeyes and launched the team to the Rose Bowl. A game that I was at.

It was without a doubt the coolest football game I have seen in person. I was with the Block I on the annual road trip, and as a result had some of the best seats in the house, right behind the end zone, right in front of the student section. If you never have been to Columbus for a football game, I cannot recommend it enough. It is a zoo. Aside from the 100,000 plus people actually at the game, there is tailgating and other events going on outside that must include another 10,000. I love Memorial Stadium and gameday in Champaign, but in terms of pure scale it is a long way from Columbus.

The stadium looked huge on the inside of course, but it was not really as overwhelming as you might think. It is designed really similarly to MS and really just looks like a scaled up version, with a larger press box/luxury suite edifice. What cannot be overstated however is what 100,000+ people sound like when they are all yelling at once, it is absolutely deafening. I still cannot believe that a football team could hear to snap the ball there. Lucky for us I suppose, that Juice does call the snap but signals for it when he is in the shotgun.

More impressive than the fans, more impressive than the stadium, and more impressive than Jim Tressel's meticulously cleaned sweater vest was the way Illinois absolutely shocked Ohio State. The year before of course the Illini had kept it close at MS and given OSU a real game, but Buckeye fans simply chalk it up to looking ahead to Michigan and dismiss the idea of an Illinoi team, coached by Ron Zook no less, could actually pose a threat to their undefeated season.

Then Daniel Dufrene busts an 80 yard run straight up the middle all the way to the OSU 5 yard line. (Oh please please don't start talking about blown calls and referees under investigation, as I recall OSU fans, you still made it to the BCS Champ game just in time to get blown off the field by LSU.) The Illini tied the game soon thereafter and made sure they would not go quietly like the rest of the Big Ten that year.

It was also the game where the Illini defense showed the rest of the nation just how bad a QB that Todd Boeckman could be. 3 INTs and alot of running around in the pocket. He would later show the same poise against LSU in the title game, and against USC the following season. You may recall that merely a week earlier ESPN was suggesting Boeckman as a serious contender for the HEISMAN. Miami Thomas did America a favor and ended that talk very quickly.

The most memorable part of the game of course was the famous 4th quarter drive. The Illini had the lead by a touchdown and the ball with 8 minutes left. An absolute eternity. Most of the time when coaches and fans refer to just how good a player Juice can be, they point to this possession, where time after time he dared the OSU defense to stop him, but made first down after first down. Most of the time simply running up the middle on QB draw plays through massive holes that were opened up by the O-line. If you had asked me at the time what the Illini needed to do to win the game, I would have told you to make it to the 30 yard line and kick a field goal to make it a two possession game. It seems completely crazy to me, but Zook out-Tresseled Tressel. He sat on the ball for 8 minutes and ended the game without giving OSU a chance to win it in the last minutes.

Let me tell you something though, as loud as that stadium was early on in the game, it was a stunned silence as the final seconds ticked off. I sincerely doubt I get to see a game quite this cool again. At least until the next time the Illini play there perhaps.

The Linking Illini is crestfallen, depressed and limping.

Joe Kutsunis — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 21:41:41 -0000

Well I admit, I took the last couple days off in observance of both my Birthday and Labor Day. I have a feeling also that if you wanted me to comment about the game on Saturday at any point during those two days it would have deteriorated into a string of obscenities, weeping and nonsense. If you simulate that game 100 times in Xbox, I don't think you will ever get a score like that in favor of Mizzou. Anyway, its Tuesday now and there is alot of despair and disillusionment about this team. It should be fun from here on out right?

Lets link to the unhappy events....

Benn, Ford 'probable' for Illini football | The Daily Illini
Well at the very least we can get that question out of the way. I will feel alot different about these next few games if Benn and Dufrene are on the field. Make no mistake, I don't believe not having Benn on the field was the reason the Illini lost on Saturday, but he is a difference maker on this team, and is one of the most highly regarded players in the nation, it certainly wouldn't have hurt to have him open for a few passes.
Illinois moves on from 'humbling experience' - Big Ten - ESPN
Humbling to say the least. Consider all of your expectations completely changed. If as it is stated in the article, that the Illini didn't come out to fight and really win this game, I have trouble believing that they will ever come out and really want to win. What more could you want? A major conference opponent on a neutral site that has beaten you in heart breaking fashion the last two years, how do you come out flat for that game?
Zook remains confident in his coaching philosophy | Stu Durando
One aspect of the philosophy that frustrated me and I am sure many others from Saturday's game was the policy of giving the receivers such a large cushion off of the line scrimmage. I am not usually one to second guess this sort of coaching decision (I don't pretend to know more about football than several coaches who do this for a living) but when a DB is playing 7 yards off of a receiver on 3rd and 5, it seems like you are handing the offense an easy first down. Mizzou killed us all day with short passes about 4 or 5 yards off of the line. I understand the philosophy being about not giving up big plays, but as Loren Tate says when you allow the small pass to prevent the big pass, and you still give it up, you have some serious problems.
Upon Further Review: Illinois was horrible -IlliniHQ.com
Paul Klee may be a basketball writer first, but he clearly knows football pretty well too. Of note from the article "But the offense's latest wishy-washy display certainly was affected by a rash of injuries. The troubling decline of the offense dates to last season, and Illinois has scored just 17, 27, 17, 20, 10 and nine points in its last six games – an average of 16.6 points in that stretch." Troubling indeed given that this team's hopes of a return to the post season have depended so much on that offense. There is a lot of reassessment that may need to be done after this game.

Mizzou-Illinois: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 15:00:54 -0000

An easy win doesn't always bring with it an interesting box score, but there are many interesting things to talk about from Mizzou's Braggin' Rights (yeah, that's what I called it) win...

Mizzou (37)		Illinois (9)
	% Close = 56.3%
42.2%	Field Position %	34.7%
71.8%	Leverage %	72.2%

	TOTAL
71	Plays	72
28.7	EqPts	16.4
40.9%	Success Rate	44.4%
0.40	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.23
0.812	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.673

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
47	Plays	34
16.6	EqPts	6.8
42.6%	Success Rate	44.1%
0.35	PPP	0.20
0.778	S&P	0.640

	RUSHING
7.7	EqPts	6.7
40.0%	Success Rate	40.0%
0.11	PPP	0.16
0.507	S&P	0.558
2.36	Line Yards/carry	2.47

	PASSING
20.9	EqPts	9.7
44.4%	Success Rate	50.0%
0.53	PPP	0.26
0.980	S&P	0.757
4.4%	SD Sack Rate	0.0%
7.1%	PD Sack Rate	17.7%

	STANDARD DOWNS
43.1%	Success Rate	51.9%
0.39	PPP	0.25
0.821	S&P	0.774

	PASSING DOWNS
35.0%	Success Rate	25.0%
0.44	PPP	0.16
0.791	S&P	0.408

	TURNOVERS
0	Number	2
0.00	Turnover Pts	8.66
+8.66	Turnover Pts Margin	-8.66

0.890	Q1 S&P	0.833
0.466	Q2 S&P	0.468
1.215	Q3 S&P	0.881
0.825	Q4 S&P	0.742

0.869	1st Down S&P	0.760
0.607	2nd Down S&P	0.711
0.939	3rd Down S&P	0.546

+21.0	Projected Pt. Margin	-21.0
+28	Actual Pt. Margin	-28

As a refresher...

Field Position % = the percentage of plays you ran in the other team's field position. The higher, the better.
Leverage % = the percentage of plays you ran that were Standard Downs instead of Passing Downs. The lower the %, the more tough situations you were in.
SD Sack Rate and PD Sack Rate = Standard Downs Sack Rate and Passing Downs Sack Rate. PD Sack Rate will usually be higher. I average the two together for an "Adjusted Sack Rate" figure you see from time to time.
Projected Pt. Margin = Adding together EqPts and Turnover Pts Margin, you can get an idea for how the game should have unfolded. For instance, in this game Mizzou outgained Illinois by 12.3 EqPts and held an 8.7-point Turnover Points Margin, leading to a projected +21.0 pt. margin.

Thoughts and more after the jump...

Reactions

With similar Leverage %, Mizzou turned the game, in part, by winning the field position battle. They moved the ball a bit more and punted wonderfully, and those were the main causes. Illinois faced longer fields (after the first quarter, anyway), and Mizzou capitalized.
We'll get into this more below, but the 0.20 PPP that Illinois averaged while the game was close is staggeringly low. They absolutely missed Benn, probably more than we even assume, but Missouri's "keep everything in front of you and make Juice throw passes he's not comfortable throwing" strategy worked perfectly. And with the push the defensive line got, I'm not sure having Daniel Dufrene would have helped at all in the running game. They had room to run outside a couple of times, but that's about it.
Neither team ran the ball worth a damn. We'll come back to this one too.
Jamming the run on Standard Downs + Nailing the QB on Passing Downs = win. If the Mizzou defense can do these things this well all season, look out. Again, this all comes with the "As far as we know, Illinois really might not be very good" qualifier, but it was still a lovely defensive performance.
This game was won on Passing Downs. Mizzou was solid but not amazing, while Illinois never did a damn thing.

The main causes of the 7-point deviation between the projected point margin and actual margin: 1) Execution in the other team's territory. Illinois peed on themselves, while Mizzou always got at least a field goal out of their trips. 2) Special teams. Neither team did much in the return game, but Jake Harry's rugby kicks were perfect. I really do expect that style of punting to catch on even more this year--it's just so freaking effective if you're even remotely decent at it. Meanwhile, Grant Ressel kicked three big-time field goals (two from beyond 40 yards), while Illinois missed a PAT. Whoops.

Three Positives

It would really be disengenuous to start with anything other than Blaine Gabbert here, wouldn't it? With Illinois keying on the Mizzou run, particularly from the RBs (and shutting them down effectively), the game was on Gabbert's shoulders, and he was more than up for the task. He's the reason Mizzou would have won this game even if Illinois was completely healthy on offense. Illinois lost a ton--imagine losing Derrick Washington, De'Vion Moore, and Danario Alexander, plus Jared Perry for a quarter or two?--but I can honestly say that with the way Gabbert played, Mizzou would have won with Kendial Lawrence, Gilbert Moye, Jerrell Jackson, Wes Kemp, etc., playing bigger roles.

The best part about Gabbert's performance is that, looking at the numbers, it looks pretty sustainable. The 0.980 Passing S&P was actually well below last year's season average of 1.082, and the 0.791 Passing Downs S&P was below last year's 0.828. Those numbers could actually improve as Gabbert gets his sea legs. Meanwhile, the Rushing S&P may have been unsustainably low. In other words, not only may the offensive performance have been relatively sustainable, but it could be expected to improve.
We took for granted how good Mizzou's rush defense was last year, but it was even better in Week One of this year. Against an average offensive line, Mizzou got a major up-the-middle push most of the time, with both Terrell Resonno and (especially) Dominique Hamilton playing very well next to Jaron Baston, but the ends were very good in pursuit to the sidelines. Aldon Smith in particular was outstanding in stringing plays to the outside and, in a couple of situations, making the tackle too. If it turns out that our defensive line is even better than last year's, then WOW does that open up the linebackers to wreak havoc both against the run and in pass coverage.
Blaine Gabbert and Juice Williams combined to complete eight passes for 19 yards or more. Gabbert completed seven of them. I previously expressed that I was concerned about the lack of big-play threats in the passing game, but Wes Kemp (receptions of 49 and 21 yards), Jared Perry (46, 28), and especially Danario Alexander (31, 29, and 19) went a very long way toward alleviating those concerns. Mizzou had big plays in every way possible: defensive breakdowns (Kemp's 49-yarder), great mid-range catch-and-runs (most of Danario's big catches), bubble screens with amazing blocking (Perry's 46-yarder), and just unbelievable throws from Gabbert (Perry's 28-yarder). It appears that Mizzou's receivers are just good enough that defenses will need to account for them more than Illinois did, and that will (in theory) re-open the running game.

Three Negatives

Gotta start with the running game. Derrick Washington and De'Vion Moore combined for 22 carries on Saturday. Seven were successful. The 22 carries accounted for a total of 3.6 EqPts and an S&P of just 0.481. Ouch. Mizzou's S&P last year was 0.890, and while there's no doubt that Illinois' strategy was to attack the run and make Gabbert beat them (whoops), Mizzou still should have produced more than they did. The pass blocking was good after the first drive, so the offensive line wasn't completely disappointing, but both the run blocking (2.36 line yards per carry was atrocious for a team that averaged 3.16 last season) and the actual running (less dancing, please) need to get tightened up starting Saturday. And it will have to happen without De'Vion Moore, who is out with an apparently minor high ankle sprain.
This is nit-picking, but while Mizzou came with a big-time rush on Passing Downs, Juice Williams had all day to pass on Standard Downs. Now, part while Juice had plenty of time to throw, he didn't have any good targets to hit, so the lack of pressure wasn't detrimental, but you'd still like to see this improve a bit as the Lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter continues to come into its own.
I'm really reaching here, but I'm not really sure we're going to get anything from the return game this year. The kick return game has a little bit of potential, but Carl Gettis doesn't look particularly comfortable catching punts, and I think the main goal at PR this year is simply not fumbling.

Three Keys Revisited

From Thursday's preview, here were the keys to the game and how they unfolded on Saturday.

The Line

The battle of Mizzou's O-line vs the Illinois D-line was something of a wash, as Mizzou won the pass blocking battle while Illinois disrupted Mizzou's running game pretty well. The other battle, however, was completely in Mizzou's favor. Mizzou's defensive tackles repeatedly blew up the inside of the Illini's O-line, while their DE speed was also quite prevalent. Advantage: Mizzou.

The Bomb

As mentioned above, Mizzou won this battle going away, and probably would have even if Benn hadn't gotten hurt. Advantage: Mizzou.

The Turnover

The team with the new QB fumbles once and loses no turnovers. The team with "The Rodney Dangerfield of Quarterbacks*" loses two reasonably costly turnovers, one resulting in Mizzou taking over in field goal range, and the other costing them at least a field goal attempt in Mizzou territory. Advantage: Mizzou.

* I really feel kind of bad mocking Juice Williams. He seems, by all accounts, to be a really good kid and a good representative of the University of Illinois. But he's simply not the quarterback everybody has been saying he is for three years now, and it makes him a very easy target. And for Mark May to say that Juice doesn't get any respect is mind-boggling.

Summary

Not a lot more to say here. This was a great way to start the season, even if it turns out that Illinois isn't very good. Mizzou will get tested by Bowling Green's passing defense, and I welcome the challenge--clearly Mizzou will face plenty of good passing games this year, and it's good to be tested early. I look for the Mizzou offense to slowly improve as the season progresses, but the defense is still a bit of a mystery to me, and I want to see what they can do against the Clawfense.

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Bill C. — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:00:20 -0000

It's that time of year, boys and...well, a couple girls. BTBS Preview season is back! One problem: not much has changed since the last time we looked at Illinois back in June. I'm going to quote liberally from that piece (I know you all have it memorized, ahem, but I'll do it anyway) while adding pieces here and there. And we'll start with a new feature.

Conventional Wisdom

It's funny. I expected Illinois to be favored, and I expected most people to pick the Illini over Missouri, just as I expected some people to pick Colorado over Missouri in the preseason rankings. I knew it would happen...but it still somewhat surprised me to see the complete and total assumption that not only will Illinois win, but they'll easily cover on the way to a 9-3(ish) season. Never mind Missouri's role in that outcome, let's focus on just Illinois for a second. A 9-3 season would result in a Top 25 finish. Here's a graph showing Illinois' S&P+ game score for each game in the last two seasons. The #25 team in the country has finished with an S&P+ of 224.75 and 224.59 the last two years, so let's make the baseline for "Top 25 performance" a 225.0.

Illinois has only played seven of its 25 games above a Top 25 level the last two years, and three of those performances came in a hot streak in late-2007. They have a few players who are top-end talents (Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, Martez Wilson, maybe Jarred Fayson), but they have pretty well-defined holes in other areas, and even the above-mentioned players haven't developed much (outside of Juice) in their time in Champaign. People are drawn to the potential in guys like Juice and Benn, however, and they overestimate how much impact just two people can have on a team.

Now, this is not to say that Illinois can't finish 9-3 or so--if they survive the opening stretch of games (Missouri on Saturday, Ohio State on 9/26, Penn State on 10/3), their final eight games are all projected within seven points. They could technically win all seven of those and finish upwards of 9-3 or 10-2, depending on how Saturday goes. Or hey...Ohio State and Penn State both have deficiencies...technically they could sneak in and pull an upset there too. But that's the best-case scenario. The reality is that, if Illinois loses on Saturday (not that anybody's predicting them to), they're staring a 1-3 start in the face, meaning they'll have to go 5-3 in the aforementioned closely-projected games just to get to bowl eligibility. The projections say they'll go 6-2 in that stretch (with a 3.1-point loss to Minny and a 4.9-point loss to Cincy) and finish at 7-5. If we were creating a bell curve of likely Illinois outcomes this year, I would say that 7-5 is in the middle of the curve, not 8-4 or 9-3. The Football Outsiders projections hate Illinois (projection: 4-8), and while my numbers like them a more than that, I think the odds of them living up to the best-case projections aren't tremendously high. Possible (their upside is certainly enticing), but not probable.

Alright, to the unit previews:

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Offense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Quarterback

What else is there to say about Juice Williams at this point? There is a bigger contrast of good and bad analysis with him than there was about even Brad Smith. He has a bazooka for an arm, he can buy time with his legs, he looks like a great quarterback in terms of the eyeball test, and he beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2007...but Illinois is just 16-21 in his three years in Champaign, 14-11 in the last two. Guys calling Illinois games can't help but gush about him, but while Illinois scored 42 points in a shootout with Missouri and 47 against Eastern Illinois, they only scored 20 against UL-Lafayette, and they only averaged about 21 points per game against teams with winning records last year--decent, but certainly not great.

Missouri stopped the Illinois passing game last year with sacks. Stryker Sulak had three, Brock Christopher one, and Tommy Chavis one. Well, all three of those guys are gone. Missouri will need their athletic new ends to beat the Illinois tackles and get in Juice's face if Missouri is going to win this game. He's mobile, but he does linger in the pocket looking to make a throw, and that gives the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter a chance to attack.

Running Back

Yes, Daniel Dufrene averaged a decent 5.7 yards per carry in 2008, and yes, Illinois was a not-terrible 44th in the country in Rushing S&P+. But there were two main factors attributed to that: 1) Juice Williams was a solid running threat, and he's not a RB, 2) the offensive line was quite good. The running backs themselves did not acquit themselves well. Dufrene was one of the nation's leaders in worthless yards, averaging only 0.28 PPP despite the decent yards per carry figure. Jason Ford, was just barely better, at 0.31 PPP. In limited action, Mikel Leshoure posted only a 0.21. As means of comparison, Juice Williams averaged 0.34, and Derrick Washington averaged 0.48.

As a whole, this unit was the worst in the Big Ten in terms of POE. ... For Illinois, their RBs' POE was -4.9, meaning they gained 4.9 points fewer than what the typical, average D1 unit would gain in their carries against their opponents. ...

If there's any hope for this unit, it's that three of the four listed RBs are only sophomores now. While Dufrene has likely topped out his development, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard (particularly Ford) still might have potential. But how much improvement can you make in one year?

Illinois fans are virulent that their RBs are the real deal, and who knows...maybe an offseason did them good. But last year they were quite unimpressive. Thanks to the fact that they were usually losing the field position battle due to turnovers and brutal special teams, they had plenty of opportunities for empty yardage before stalling and not converting yards into points. That will need to change if they're going to come anywhere close to living up to some people's expectations.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The single strongest unit Illinois has, the WR corps is also Illinois' most unique unit, with two burners in Arrelious Benn and Jarred Fayson, and Jeff Cumberland, who is big even for a tight end.

Benn and Cumberland return, into [Will] Judson's shoes steps Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Fayson, a former 4-star signee from Tampa, caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in two years in Gainesville, while adding 33 rushes for 215 yards and a TD. He's an interesting run-catch dual threat, and he could be a nice complement. If he's more consistent than Judson, who caught one pass or fewer in seven of 12 games in 2008, this receiving corps will improve. That alone could improve Juice Williams's numbers more than any last-second development Juice could make on his own.

Meanwhile, Michael Hoomanawanui was a distinctly average tight end, producing 0.36 Points Over Expected in 2008, good for #49 in the country.

Offensive Line

The Illini O-line in 2008 was pretty good at run blocking (29th in Line Yards+) and below-average at pass blocking (68th in Adjusted Sack Rate). Now, the sack rate figure is directly tied to a quarterback's ability to avoid a sack, and maybe Juice just hung in the pocket too much, but it's the best stat we have to work with right now, and it suggests what it suggests. They return two senior starters in Jon Asamoah and Eric Block, plus a promising sophomore in Jeff Allen, who started some games as a true freshman last year. In terms of experience, they don't have a particularly high or low amount, and it does look like, alongside the two seniors, they could start three sophomores/redshirt freshmen, which isn't encouraging. Mizzou's defensive line did rather well against this line last year, and on September 5, both units will be less experienced than they were twelve months previous.

Missouri's run defense will probably regress at the first of the season as they learn to replace Ziggy Hood, and since run blocking was a relative strength for Illinois, the Illini might be able to create a few more holes through which Daniel Dufrene, et al, can run. But one of the biggest keys to this game will be Missouri's pass rush. As mentioned above, Mizzou racked up the drive-killing sacks on Juice last year, and while they should have very fast, attacking linebackers, if Missouri has to blitz to get to Juice, that could mean trouble. If (IF) Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter are as good as they're supposed to be, then the Illinois line is average enough that they could have some success, and it could turn the game.

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Defense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defensive Line

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

The Illinois defensive line got deeper with the return of Josh Brent to the team after a DUI-related suspension. Guys like Brent, Lindquist, and Liuget are very athletic for defensive tackles, and if they suddenly learn how to put together down-to-down success, then look out. Really, it's the same with Walker, Davis, Brown, and the ends. The athleticism of the line is undeniable, but there is nothing (yet) suggesting that they can be consistent enough to carry a relatively unproven defensive back seven.

Linebackers

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

As Wilson goes, so goes the Illinois LB corps. Beyond him, things get dicey, and while they are certainly athletic (sensing a trend?), they were a weak unit last year and they're far less experienced this year. If the UI defensive line isn't plugging holes, Derrick Washington could take advantage of this unit again like he did last year.

Secondary

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Once again, if the defensive line isn't generating pressure, there's nothing to suggest that this unit will make too many positive plays. The star quality of guys like Juice, Benn, and Wilson have distracted people from the fact that the Illinois defense is relatively devoid of playmakers, and while they're experienced enough to potentially take advantage of Missouri's green quarterback...well, let's just say that I'm not too worried if Gabbert has time to make the throws he wants to make.

Special Teams

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. A.J. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Under Ron Zook, Illinois has pretty consistently failed in the field position battle, and unless the special teams unit is improved, they will once again be running uphill most of the season. Hopefully Missouri's new-fangled return game is just good enough to take advantage and win the fight for field position.

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Three Keys to the Game

The Line

If Illinois is smart, the focus of their entire defensive gameplan is showing as many different looks as possible and trying to confuse Blaine Gabbert and get him thinking way too much. There will be serious pressure on the Missouri offensive line to not only open holes for Derrick Washington (he doesn't need much), but also give Gabbert time to breathe and make the right decision. Aside from Derek Walker's great pick six, last year Illinois didn't get to Chase Daniel much. They probably don't need to get to Gabbert as much as Daniel to get him scatter-brained, but they still need to get to him a little. If the Missouri offensive line is as good as we think it could be, Gabbert and Washington will be able to do their thing, and the Tigers won't miss too many beats offensively. But if not...well...Missouri's not going to win this game.

On the flipside, Missouri's defensive line will need to at least put together a similar effort as they got last year against the Illinois offensive line. When Juice got time to throw last year, Missouri was in a world of pain, and while we think the world of Smith, Smith, and Coulter (and Jaron Baston), clearly we don't know what they're capable of until they prove it on Saturday.

The bottom line here is that if Missouri's offensive and defensive lines win their respective battles, it will be very hard for Illinois to win this game. Yes, Missouri is unproven in a lot of areas, but if Washington finds room to run, if Gabbert has time to pass, and if Juice is not sitting comfortably in the pocket, Missouri will almost certainly win...unless the next two keys go massively in favor of the Illini.

The Bomb

If Illinois is smart, they will go deep early and often. It worked last year, but they didn't really try it until the game was out of reach. We've heard that Mizzou's cornerbacks are better than a year ago, but they'll have to prove it very quickly. I mean, I would go deep on the first play from scrimmage. If Carl Gettis, Kevin Rutland and company really can provide Mizzou with solid coverage, and Kenji Jackson, Hardy Ricks, etc., can do better than Justin Garrett over the top, then the scariest weapon in the Illinois arsenal could be neutralized. But that's a big if, isn't it?

Meanwhile, Missouri's biggest offensive weakness could be in the same vein--the big play. At this point, I'm pretty confident in the ability of Andrew Jones, Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, Jared Perry, and Michael Egnew to get open underneath and keep Mizzou moving at least somewhat efficiently. But as the stats have proven many times over, the only thing more important than efficiency is explosiveness (because it leads to easy scores), and...does Missouri have any in the passing game? Can Danario Alexander emerge as the big-play threat we've always thought he could be? Can Rolandis Woodland give us, at the very least, a "once or twice a game" deep-ball threat?

The Turnover

I almost feel like it's a cop-out for me to say turnovers are important. Of course they're important. Everybody knows that. But did you know they were this important?

Mizzou and Illinois Versus Turnover Margins, 2006-08
Turnover Margin	Illinois	Missouri
+	7-1	17-0
0	4-5	7-3
-	5-15	6-8

Missouri is undefeated in the last three years when winning the turnover battle, while Illinois is 7-1. Extrapolating from this, you could say that Missouri has an 86.5% chance of winning the game if they're on the positive side of the turnover margin, while Illinois has a 68.1% chance of winning if they win on turnovers. Yards, first downs, S&P+, whatever...you will not find another stat with that direct an impact on the overall outcome of the game than that. Last year, Missouri and Illinois split on turnovers. The year before, turnovers made all the difference in the world (hello, Pig Brown). No matter how good (or not) these two teams truly are, a poor throw or a clean strip could make the difference in the game. That is almost always the case, but it seems even more the case in this matchup.

Prediction

The more I think about Illinois, the more I believe that this game will come down to line play. Whoever wins there, wins. Naturally, because I'm a Missouri fan I like Missouri's chances, but I also know that an outsider could make the case that Missouri fans are completely underestimating their own personnel losses, and that we could be in for a very rude awakening on Saturday. So I'm leaning on the numbers for now. The projections say that Missouri isn't going to fall off nearly as much as everybody thought, or put another way, the numbers say that Missouri was high enough above most teams that a fall-off should still result in a good season. They say Mizzou wins by 10, so I'll fill in the points...we'll say 38-28 Mizzou.

The Linking Illini are back in the CU for good.

Joe Kutsunis — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 20:17:21 -0000

So I roll into Urbana today only to find that it is balls hot and near 80% humidity. What the hell happened to that nice mild July. Anyway just some short links before I grab me some Antonio's.

The Commercial-News, Danville, IL - Illini show good, bad in scrimmage
More scrimmage coverage, also showing the sort of reserved optimism I have for this team. I suppose before any of us get too excited or depressed, we should remind ourselves that it is only a scrimmage and nothing is for sure until September 5th.
Illinois' Daniel Dufrene scores on 80-yarder on first play of scrimmage -- chicagotribune.com
Hmmm, so is that a good thing or a bad thing. Did Dufrene go back to his Columbus form in showing great speed and instincts, or do we see another Mizzou game from last year for our defense. Maybe neither. Only time will tell.
Tate: The answers, man - IlliniHQ.com
Loren Tate, the hippest septuagenarian with the possible exception of Beano Cook gives his take on many Illini football related questions. Specifically the issue of Juice and his interceptions. If Juice can cut down from 16 to even 10 it would mean a huge amount for this offense and this team.

The Linking Illini are posting by committee.

Joe Kutsunis — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 18:28:51 -0000

Another day, another link dump, this time including Basketball and Volleyball news.

Deconstructing: In search of Juice's main squeeze at Illinois - Dr. Saturday
Chris from Smart Football has a fantastic column on the running game of the Illini over the last few years, covers the Rashard Mendenhall sized hole in the offense in 2008, and even addresses the "by committee" and "go to guy" approaches to a running game. This article will make you smarter.
'Illini Madness' to feature Illinois' basketball, volleyball teams Oct. 16 -- chicagotribune.com
Okay, your first impulse, like mine, might be to roll your eyes and think "great, another year, another gimmick" Granted the coaches vs cancer pink out was a huge success, but last year's world's largest basketball practice was about as packed as a middle school practice. This year, thank god, we are heading back into the Hall for Madness. There is of course the caveat, it will be preceded by a volleyball match against Minnesota, and perhaps worst/best/scariest of all, the tickets are free. So free that the Athletic Department will be sending out 125,000 tickets for the event before hand, and the first 16,000 at AH will be the only ones allowed. I hope we don't screw the pooch and lose to a different Minnesota team right before Madness, because I don't want to see the hall empty like MS was last year.
Seattle Post-Intelligencer: College Football
Yet another year in review/2009 outlook article devoted to your beloved Illini. This one from all the way out in Seattle for some reason.
Wilson thrives as Illinois' man in the middle - Big Ten - ESPN
Adam Rittenberg (All hail) with an excellent piece on Martez Wilson. The most important quote from the post "I'm ready to fulfill everyone's expectations, especially mine." I fully believe that Tez can explode this year in much the same way that Rashard did in 07, after 2 disappointing and fumble ridden seasons behind Pierre. Its a similar situation with Tez as both Brit and J are now gone and its up to him to seize his opportunity.

SB Nation - Daniel Dufrene

Alright guys, don't blow it now

If the Illini want to win any games in the Big Ten, they have to beat IU

Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. The Illinois Fighting Illini

Juice Williams and the Downfall of the Illinois Offense

The last time the Illini went to Columbus...

The Linking Illini is crestfallen, depressed and limping.

Mizzou-Illinois: Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou(37)

Illinois(9)

Reactions

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Conventional Wisdom

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Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

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Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Illinois Preview

The Linking Illini are back in the CU for good.

The Linking Illini are posting by committee.

Mizzou
(37)

Illinois
(9)