SB Nation - Talmadge Jackson III

Quack Fix: Oregon fans are rude, and there's a 1-in-5 chance Chip Kelly ends up at Notre Dame?

PaulSF — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:00:13 -0000

Based on SI.com's latest Fan Survey, I'm guessing Full House's Stephanie Tanner wouldn't enjoy watching a game at Autzen Stadium.

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So, it's Friday. And that means it's almost Saturday. Which also means it's almost Gameday. College Gameday, more precisely. Treat this post as your "It's Friday, but I don't feel like working because I'm too nervous thinking about tomorrow's game in the desert" open thread. But first, your Morning Quack Fix:

As Stephanie Tanner often proclaimed, "How rude!" How rude? Autzen Stadium rude. According to SI.com's latest Fan Survey Results for the Pac-10, 26.2% of respondents think Oregon has the rudest fans in the Pac-10. I'm taking that as a compliment. And suddenly feel like taking in a Full House marathon.
On the heels of the R-G's George Schroeder's Tuesday column discussing exactly the same topic, The Oregonian's John Canzano thinks the University's got it all wrong by not letting senior running back LeGarrette Blount speak to the press. For once, I actually agree with Canzano. But I still don't like him.
Time to panic! Bodog.com released prop bet odds on who will be the coach at Notre Dame next fall if it's not Charlie Weis. Guess who made the short list with odds of 5-to-1? Yup, you guessed it: Chip Kelly. If you're a Duck fan, put down a hundred bucks on this bet. That way, if we do lose Chip to South Bend, at least you'll get a consolation prize of $500. You think I'm kidding.
Schroeder has a nice feature on Mike Bellotti's work as a color analyst on the rebroadcasts of Ducks games this year. Let's just hope Mike doesn't get so good at it that he ends up getting a job with ABC. He's a natural!
The R-G's Ron Bellamy reports on Oregon's graduation rates following a national report released Wednesday. Both the men's and women's basketball programs' rates are above the national average, but football declined, partially due to a small 2002 recruiting class that featured a few early NFL draft entrants, including Haloti Ngata.
Lastly, the RG has a feature piece today on Talmadge Jackson III, who has stepped up in the wake of injuries to Walter Thurmond and Willie Glasper. Jackson has been excellent all year, especially last week when he Oregon's defensive player of the week honors. However, just like the rest of the Ducks, he's never satisfied, and is always looking for improvement.

As always, leave any relevant links or comments below. GO DUCKS!

Ducks coast to easy victory over Sun Devils, shows promise for Rose Bowl run

jtlight — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 19:47:57 -0000

by Rick Bowmer - AP

LaMichael James is on pace to be the most productive back in Oregon history.

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It's not often that a 23 point victory can be view as "disappointing," and while I won't quite that far, it sure seems like the Ducks left a lot on the field. They turned the ball over twice, which led to 14 of ASU's 21 points. They allowed a QB getting his first significant playing time to complete some big 3rd downs after getting outside the pocket. They struggled to stop the run during a couple of drives. Jeremiah Masoli struggled with his accuracy in the second half.

But, beyond the many mistakes, the Ducks looked dominant when they wanted to, led 31-7 at the half, and controlled the game after scoring on their first drive, something which they have been very poor at throughout the year.

So, with the game in hand, I was watching this game with an eye towards the Arizona and OSU games. And, though I have some concerns, what I saw this weekend made me feel much better.

First, Jacquizz Rodgers will give our defense fits, and will get a lot of yards after initial contact. The Ducks had trouble stopping Dimitri Nance at times, and he gained a number of yards after initial contact. Quizz will do the same. However, the speed of the Ducks defense gives the Ducks the ability to get quick penetration into the backfield, and I believe the Ducks will be able to get enough pressure at times to force OSU into 2nd and 3rd and long situations. At least, I hope that's the case.

The Oregon front 7 was able to get pressure on the ASU quarterbacks. Unfortunately, due to Samson Szakacsy's speed, he was able to neutralize that pressure. The Ducks, after struggling to create pressure against the two best offensive line's in the conference, notched two sacks, and pressured the QBs multiple times. In the next two games, the Ducks will face offenses that will be susceptible to pressure. OSU has done a very poor job of protecting the QB all year, and Arizona gave up 3 sacks against Cal, nearly doubling the number of sacks they've given up all year. Also, Arizona, up until this week, had not faced the top 5 pass rushes in the Pac-10, so their numbers are skewed. The greatest problem for the Ducks when they faced Stanford was the lack of any pressure on Andrew Luck. I don't forsee a similar problem in the last two games of the season. It's also important that niether Sean Canfield nor Foles have the scrambling ability that gave Oregon fits last night.

While the secondary took a beating last week, they played very well this week. Talmadge Jackson III is proving to be a very good CB, especially on deep passes. Cliff Harris almost had his 2nd interception as a Duck, and the safety play was back to what we expect, after a very poor showing against Stanford.

Offensively, we have one of the best running backs in the nation in LaMichael James. I've run out of words for him. He simply makes amazing plays every single week. The Oregon offensive line dominated the top rushing defense in the conference, and Oregon steamrolled it's way to 250+ rushing yards.

Passing the ball, Oregon had a good but not great game. However, Masoli and the Duck receivers have done a great job of finding holes in the zones. Masoli's accuracy problems notwithstanding, he had a great touchdown pass to Jeff Maehl. One thing that has been missing from Oregon's offense is the deep threat, and we have seen flashes of it over the last three games, which is a great sign for the offense in general.

I still don't see how Arizona or Oregon State will slow down the Ducks offense. They haven't been held below 40 points with Masoli at the helm in Pac-10 play. As long as the Ducks don't turn the ball over, the offense should be pretty much unstoppable.

So, what'd you guys take from the game? What concerned you? What gave you hope? Either way, it's good to wash away the taste of the Stanford game with a win. GO DUCKS!

Poll

Which of the Ducks remaining two games worries you more?

Arizona Wildcats

215 votes

Oregon State Beavers

276 votes

491 votes | Poll has closed

The Autzen Massacre: What Went Wrong With Cal's Offense in Oregon?

Avinash — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 08:00:02 -0000

More photos » by Don Ryan - AP

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A few weeks ago after opening week, Smart Football wrote this post about what makes a football offense terrible, and this really stuck out to me.

- Line play, in every phase: It’s a cliche, but it’s still undervalued. The most important coach on the staff is the line coach. I didn’t say most important assistant, I said coach. The head coach gets things organized, brings in the boosters, the OC calls the plays, but the line coach makes the whole operation go. If you’d like to know how Boise State was able to stymie Oregon’s fancy spread, the answer is simple: they whipped Oregon’s line, which was starting four new guys. Similarly, with all these spread offenses you see a lot who want to throw the ball, but they don’t understand pass protection or focus enough on it. There’s both a "who" and a "how," and awful offenses can do neither. Runningbacks are nice, but beyond Heisman-winning breakaway speed, the run game won’t go if guys can’t block. (Note that with modern zone plays, it is not always about driving guys off the ball, it is about technique and leverage. This only increases the need for good coaching on the line.) And even the most high-flying offenses have been grounded by a lack of pass protection.

After extensively reviewing the gametape of the possessions when Cal's offense could've made a difference in the game (i.e. before the score was 32-3), I'd say that's about an accurate description about what happened yesterday. We all think Jahvid Best can be otherworldly in the open field, but if his O-line doesn't block for him, he is mortal, and so are the Bears.

If you just want the bullet point details instead of the gruesome summary of what I saw, just read below and move on with your day. You will be much happier not clicking after the jump.

The coach I would be questioning the most isn't Andy Ludwig or Bob Gregory, but Steve Marshall. Oregon's front seven played physical and Cal's offensive line played soft and slow, and it showed, all game long.
The Bears were unprepared for some of the angles Nick Aliotti threw at them in terms of blitzes, but often it was just straight man fronts overwhelming the O-line.
The playcalling was occasionally headscratching, only because it became terribly obvious by down and distance (which can't always be controlled) and formation (which can be controlled) near the end when Cal was going to throw and when Cal was going to run.
I'm not sure Matt Summers-Gavin should've seen action, much less started this game. He looked ineffective for much of the game.
He wasn't the only one though. Every starting O-linemen had their shares of whiffs or weak blocks, mainly in man but also in zone. Cheadle, Guarnero, Schwartz, Tepper all struggled.
Will Ta'ufo'ou's presence was missed. Brian Holley played well for us the first three weeks, but his inexperience showed.
The tight ends blocked well. So that's good.
Marvin Jones did not. For a guy who's always being signalled in to block, that's bad.
Jahvid Best's got one big issue to work out before he plans on being an NFL back. But also I'm not sure if Ludwig utilized him well at all.
Cal's pass offense did not exploit the zone holes, partly due to playcalling, partly due to protection issues.
Cal was in a lot of long yardage situations. They had one 3rd and short, a few 3rd and 5s, but they were in a lot of obvious passing down areas which had a lot of Ducks dropping into coverage.
I was really surprised at how conservative we were with our gameplan. Other than that cross route Tucker dropped, the Bears went downfield a handful of times, but a lot of the throws were very short.
Any play when the O-line played well, the skill players made a mistake, and vice-versa. That's a recipe for offensive disaster. It's like Tedford said Sunday night: "Typically, it was one thing, one guy. It really becomes evident, it’s just so important that 11 guys play together. You have 10 guys doing the right thing and one guy doesn’t do his thing . . . it’s a lot of opportunities we didn’t capitalize on.

Although Kevin Riley made several throwing errors, Verran Tucker dropped a big pass and made a stupid penalty, these things worry me far less than what has become the glaring weakness in our 2009 Golden Bears. How our offensive line adjusts from this game will determine how the rest of our season goes.

After the jump, here's my brutal play-by-play notes and "analysis". I put "analysis" in quotes because I'm a football novice and probably don't understand the nuances of football blocking techniques. I just report what I see. If you see things I get blatantly wrong, correct me in the comments. Bad knowledge is just as dangerous as no knowledge.

What else do you think went wrong with Cal's offense in Oregon, and can it be corrected in time for USC?

First drive, after the kickoff fumble.

1st & 10, ORE 22, 14:56:
Cal Offense: Shotgun max protect, Vereen shifts from weak to strong
Oregon Defense: 4-3 under, seven drop back

Tepper slow to respond to snap; his man (Kenny Rowe) blows by him; note Rowe is not a typical DE, more of a converted linebacker

2nd & 18, ORE 30, 14:20
Offense: Ace slot right, back strong
Defense: Nickel? Five drop back agains the receivers

Cal has SEVEN people in pass protection (including Best & the TE) on four (FOUR!) and Riley STILL gets pressured at the end. This time it's Schwartz's man.

3rd & 18, ORE 30, 14:10
Offense: Ace slot right, back strong
Defense: Nickel? Five drop back against the receivers

Tough throw by Riley to make in all that coverage. A screen would've been nice here considering Oregon was dropping lots of men into coverage.

Second drive, Cal up 3-0 in the first quarter

1st & 10, CAL 41, 13:08
Offense: Ace, two receivers right, two tight ends shift from right to left
Defense: Nickel of some sort

Good blocking to the left to give Best room to run to the right

2nd & 4, CAL 47, 12:38

Offense: I-Form, fullback offset strongside
Defense: Not clear.

Tepper pulls from the left tackle spot, not really sure if Holley had trouble blocking here

1st & 10, ORE 48, 12:12

Offense: I-Form, fullback offset weakside, tight end to the left, Riley audibling?
Defense: Playing to defend run, eight people in the box

This feels like a play where they were trying to run something off-tackle or sweep. Best kind of stumbles here, hard to decide whether he could've made it to the edge. The redshirt freshman Boyett does nicely filling Ward's role as safety trying to plug gap.

2nd & 6, ORE 44, 11:33

Offense: I-form, fullback offset strongside
Defense: Looks like a 4-3 under, but Aliotti plays a lot of nickel with an extra safety

Uhh, Summers-Gavin, when you have no one to block, and no one's coming to blitz, might be nice to try and help your linemen. Guarnero loses Ferras, who flushes Riley out of the pocket and into a throwaway.

3rd & 6, ORE 44, 11:25

Offense: Shotgun spread, two halfbacks (Best & Vereen), Vereen goes in motion to the left
Defense: Oregon rushes 3, drops 8, and still had Verran wide open on the cross route.

Crossing route, pump fake. Pass might've been a little ahead and a little high for Tucker, still could've made the catch.

Third drive, Tied at 3 in the first quarter

1st & 10, CAL 49, 5:45

Offense: Shotgun 2 TE set (Best lined up a little behind Riley)
Defense: Blitz from the weakside

I'm not sure if Best was a decoy here on the swing, but the receiver screen to Ross is thrown maybe a step too early and the throw takes awhile to get there. Summers-Gavin whiffs on a block downfield on the eventual tackler.

2nd & 8, ORE 49, 5:09

Offense: I-form, 2 WR right
Defense: Seven in the box, could've been a big play if the blocks were executed right.

Man blocking fail. Jones goes in motion to block. This is a mess to begin with. Guarnero loses his man again, forcing Holley to help, then Summers Gavin can't get on his man downfield either. Leaves two Ducks uncovered to make the tackle on Best.

3rd & 5, ORE 46, 4:30

Offense: Shotgun 2 RB, 3 WR
Defense: Oregon brings 5, maybe a LB blitz?

Pretty good pass protection, Riley didn't have to leave the pocket unless it was by design; he flushes out to find Ross on a comebacker

1st & 10, ORE 39, 4:00

Offense: Ace 2 WR left, TE right, someone else lined off the line behind TE
Defense: 4-3 under, 9 men bite! Single coverage downfield left!

It's Cheadle's turn to get owned. Cal sets up perfect play action, maybe Riley holds the ball a second too long before trying to hit the corner, but Cheadle can't let Brandon Bair brush him aside like that. Riley forced to run when he might've had single coverage downfield.

2nd & 8, ORE 37, 3:31

Offense: Shotgun spread
Defense: 4-3 under

Jones goes in motion to the left, goes out into the flat, Riley throws behind dangerously, spinning off his back foot. Again Tepper's failure to cover his man (although he does keep him from getting to Riley) might've made Kevin throw that one a little earlier than he'd have liked to avoid the sack, but still.

3rd & 8, ORE 37, 3:27

Offense: Shotgun 3 WR left, TE right
Defense: Nickel, but here's the first interesting wrink: 2 LBs come in showing blitz; one comes with the rush, the other stay backs (as well as a DT), maybe to defend against Best coming out of the backfield?

First call that really left me shaking my head. 3rd & 8 and you go with a WR screen? It might've worked except Summers-Gavin and Guarnero again with a mental error, only brushing at the tackle between them before going into downfield blocking instead of pushing him back; defender goes on to pummel Riley as he's throwing the ball, leading to a low throw and giving Ross no chance to escape Oregon defenders.

Fourth drive, Oregon up 11-3 in the second quarter

1st and 10, CAL 44, 14:46
Offense: Aces, TE left, 2 WR right, someone lined a little left & behind TE (I think it's another TE, can't be sure)
Defense: 4-3 over?

Again Jones comes in motion, decent blocking here and nice moves by Best.

2nd & 5, CAL 49, 14:08
Offense: Aces, 2 WR right. Again, someone lined behind TE to the right, TEs shift from right to left, second time I've seen that.

Summers Gavin with the false start. Sigh.

2nd & 10, CAL 44, 13:47
Offense: Wildcat, QB left, TE right, 2 WR right
Defense: 4-3 under

This might be the best offensive play of the game. O-linemen seal toward right has a lot of the Ducks D biting right, Best fakes and goes left, freezes up Paysinger, then picks up the 1st down with ease.

1st & 10, ORE 45, 13:18

Offense: I-form, fullback offset strongside, Tight ends behind each other,
Defense: NINE Ducks in the box.

This is on Cheadle, didn't execute his take down block well enough to knock Simi Toeaina out of the play, who gets up and makes the backfield tackle on Best. Holley also misses his assignment and Guarnero was a step too late on his downfield block. Three Duck defenders were in the vicinity of the Best before he hit the LoS.

2nd & 14, ORE 49, 12:38

Offense: I-form, Tightend lined left, WRs right
Defense: Corner is shading the running back all the way.

Riley audibles, again Jones comes in motion toward the line, again a run. Methinks Oregon is getting the hang of that motion thing, Talmadge Jackson reads it all the way, although the facemask penalty is what slowed Vereen from hitting the hole.

1st and 10, ORE 29, 12:13

Offense: I-form, TE lined left, fullback offset strongside
Defense: Eight in the box.

Second biggest play of the game for Cal's offense for me. This would've set up 1st down in the red zone. Perfect playfake with the box stacked, put Cal on one-on-one in the end zone, total interference. Tucker with the stupid taunting penalty negating it.

1st and 10, ORE 29, 12:03

Offense: I-form, 2 TE, WR right, again TE moves to the left, then TE from the right motions to th eleft
Defense: 4-3 over, EIGHT IN THE BOX

I replayed this one about ten times trying to figure out what happened. Someone was supposed to block out Paysinger. At first I thought it was supposed to be Guarnero. But it could also have been Summers-Gavin, who looked like he was pulling toward that hole but then sort of stayed behind Guarnero in some weird sort of block. (If you guys have ESPN360, go to 59:54, then watch the play develop, anyone know enough about the O-line blocking techniques to tell me what was designed?). If Paysinger gets blocked out Vereen probably goes 10-15 yards.

2nd and 12, ORE 31, 11:25

Offense: Wildcat formation, Riley lines up left, two WR right, TE right.
Defense: 4 man front, plus something else...

They run the same play they ran five plays ago, from the same formation. The difference is that the backside guard is pulling from the right (Cheadle) to try and seal the left side for Best to have the outside space. Looks good. Except Cheadle slips. Fuck. Then Holley tries to make the cut block on the defender Cheadle was supposed to take (when he probably should've aimed downfield at the faster incoming d-back) and whiffs. FUCK. And thus, the D-back Holley was supposed to take out finds Best and drags him down quickly.

3rd and 11, ORE 30, 11:08

Offense: Best moves from the backfield to the left side of the LoS, WRs right, TE left
Defense: Nickel

Questionable playcall #2: Why are we using a 3rd and 11 with a tight end screen? All these short passes make me wonder how much Ludwig trusts RIley's ability to throw the medium-range pass. The blocking here is slipshod, probably because no one has any idea who and where to block against defensive backs.

Fifth drive, the Riley/Best fumble

1st and 10, ORE 40, 10:00

Offense: I-form, fullback offset strong, TE right
Defense: looks like a 4-3 over

Most important play for Cal's offense. This play made me cringe, not only because of the fumble, but because if that handoff is executed right, Best is zooming through the crease, with a great chance to break through to the second level. Seven of the eight Ducks were blocked perfectly man-to-man, and Jones's guy would've been well out of the play. Still not happy that almost every time Jones has been motioned toward the line it's been a run, but a minor gripe compared to the fumble. This is the crucial play that has us standing between a tied game and the eventual rout.

Sixth drive, Oregon up 18-3 in the 2nd q

1st and 10, CAL 23, 8:13
Offense: Ace, two tight ends shift from left to right. Let me guess, it's going to be a run.
Defense: Predictably Oregon stacks eight in the box.

Yep, although there's good inside zone blocking this time opening the inside for Best to cut in and cut left. Great downblock by Anthony Miller coming from right to left. Secondary with good pursuit.

1st and 10, CAL 33, 7:50
Offense: Originally I-formation fullback offset strong, but Best moves into the slot.
Defense: 4-3 under

Best comes from the slot for the direct handoff (we saw a variation of this against EWU). Again Summers-Gavin has trouble blocking out his assignment, Brandon Bair, who gets off him rather easily and chases Best down to prevent further damage.

2nd and 7, CAL 36, 7:08
Offense: Aces, 2 WR left, 1 WR right, TE right
Defense: If I didn't know better, this looks like a 3-4...I must be seeing things.

More motion so the receiver from the right goes left into a trips formation. It got a first down because it recognized the pressure that was coming, but again, these screen passes make me wonder how much Ludwig trusts Riley's midrange game.

1st and 10, CAL 48, 6:45
Offense: I formation fullback offset strong, 2 WR right, TE right

Riley took way too many steps, didn't really look for alternatives other than deep, then launched that football into orbit. Great coverage by Glasper. Left tackle (Tepper? Not sure whot he number was) also allowed another defender to get a lick on Riley.

2nd and 10, CAL 48, 6:33
Offense: I formation, 2 WR right, TE left
Defense: Oregon brings nine in the box, anticipating rush. Try the pass again?

Again Marvin Jones goes in motion to the O-line, and maybe Oregon takes it as their cue that a running play is coming, since that's what happened on almost every receiver going into motion toward the O-line play. Jones makes a critical error not seeing the incoming linebacker, and he spends most of the play looking for someone to block. He's right behind you Marv, making the tackle on Vereen! Guarnero spends his time on this play blocking the ground from the sun, missing on two Duck defenders who help out on getting Vereen.

3rd and 9, CAL 49, 5:57
Offense: Shotgun, 3 WR right, 1 left
Defense: Oregon rushes three and drops eight into coverage.

Isn't the best way to break down this particular coverage zone to go toward the sidelines, like around that 8-10 yard receiver? Anyway, Riley telegraphs Anthony Miller, and that ball should've been picked.

Seventh drive, Oregon up 18-3 in the 2nd q

1st and 10, CAL 36, 3:45
Offense: Two WR right, WR left, FB goes in motion to make I-form fullback offset weak.

Riley audibles, Man blocking, Cheadle opens up a hole but can't hold onto his man and the defender closes it up!

2nd and 8, CAL 38, 3:08
Offense: Two WR right, WR left, TE right, RB weak
Defense: 4-3 over

Quick throw to Anthony Miller.

3rd and 2, CAL 44, 2:41
Offense: WR right, TE split on both side, I-form fullback offset strong
Defense: Oregon stacks 8 in the box

Quick snap, Holley whiffs on his outside block that allows the outside LB to rush up on Best in the backfield. Think we're missing Ta'ufo'ou right now?

Eighth drive, Oregon up 25-3 in the 2nd q

1st and 10, CAL 20, :59
Offense: Shotgun, RB weakside, 2 WR & TE right
Defense: WLB blitz, 4-3 over

This is on Best for not picking up Rowe rushing blindside, although Oregon did put two defenders close to Tepper, so Best probably felt he needed to help out. I'd worry about the guy unblocked first though. Still, shouldn't we be using Jahvid as a quick dumpoff receiver rather than putting him in pass protection?

2nd and 14, CAL 16, :20
Offense: I form, FB strongside, 2 WR split and TE right
Defense: 3 down linemen

Solid gain and blocking from Best. They're using the Bend but not Best D versus the Jet.

3rd and 5, CAL 25, :12
Offense: I form, FB strongside, 2 WR split and TE right

They're just running out the clock here.

Ninth drive, Oregon up 25-3 in the 3rd q

1st and 10, CAL 20, 15:00
Offense: Best weakside behind Riley in the shotgun, TE right, 2 WR split left
Defense: Could be a dime package

There's that sideline throw to break the zone! Luckily Riley threw that when he did, because Summers-Gavin again struggled to protect against his man.

1st and 10, ORE 30, 14:46
Offense: Shotgun, RB strong, TE right, 2 WR split left
Defense: Not sure

Corner read this right, had a chance at getting a pick.

2nd and 10, ORE 30, 14:41
Offense: Shotgun, RB weak, TE right
Defense: 3 down linemen, Strongside linebacker blitz picked up, it was the tackle Bair who came in untouched.

Oh my lord. Three down linemen and Riley still gets hit??? Tepper with a real weak effort containing the edge and Best is nowhere close to picking up that block. Not sure who the FAIL goes to there. I know Jahvid wants to go to the NFL, but so far I've seen two really questionable decisions by him in pass protection, and in the NFL running backs have to learn to pass protect to stay in the game.

3rd and 10, ORE 30, 14:36
Offense: Shotgun, 2 RB, 2 WR right
Defense: Again, 3 down linemen, 8 drop.

Riley hit AGAIN as he threw with three down linemen rushing; other players are in the box, but all of them drop. Inexcusable. Schwartz can't seal the right side against Tukuafu and Tepper allows his man to at least get in the throwing path. The worst part is Best was open, scorching on the flat again down the sideline.

4th and 10, ORE 30, 14:31
Offense: Shotgun, RB right, 2 WR right
Defense: 3 down linemen, three up in the box, full on blitz by the linebackers

This time it's Cheadle who's out of position to defend the rushing linebacker and only gives him a brief brush by, and this throw by Riley looks rushed.

Alright, that's about as far as I want to go. In all, here are the mistakes I enumerated, for each blocker.

Matt Summers-Gavin--8
Chris Guarnero--5
Justin Cheadle--5
Mike Tepper--4
Brian Holley--3
Mitchell Schwartz--2
Jahvid Best--2
Marvin Jones--1

That's 30 clear blocking errors on the first 41 offensive plays, almost all of them drive killers (to be fair, some blockers committed their mistakes on the same play, so the average percentage of bad blocking plays was around 55-60%, it wasn't one blocking error per play. Still pretty bad). If you expect to win games making that many mistakes at the line of scrimmage, I have beachfront property on Mars I'd like to sell you.

It's why I find it hard to blame quarterback play or our running game for not getting going. How on Earth can you blame the quarterback and skill players when your linemen keep on missing man assignments, when your guards aren't pulling properly, and you aren't able to contain and seal in the zone?

Finally, I'm not going to absolve Andy Ludwig on this. There were several things I noticed that I didn't particularly like, it made those warnings we heard from Utah and from Oregon before the season all the more unsettling, and Saturday made this mocking animation from Off the Pond seem depressingly prophetic.

*Any time the Bears max protected (stacked up two tight ends or had the fullback in the game), they ran the ball. They stacked the box and we stacked right back against them. I think we tried to play fake and go deep once or twice. Any time Riley lined in shotgun, we passed the ball (it's pretty much automatic at this point that we pass the ball out of shotgun, we maybe do one draw a game, none today).

*I also didn't like that Cal always had a lot of people (fullbacks, tight ends, even tailbacks) staying back in pass protection when Oregon barely blitzed at all and got most of their pressure with four down linemen, so often Cal had six or seven blocking four. You're robbing yourself of intermediary and short passing options when you have Jahvid Best or Shane Vereen blocking on passing downs, and you're allowing the coverage to play tighter on the receivers and making it tough for Riley to get rid of the ball, making it more likely for him to get sacked.

*Now you might be saying "WTF MAN OUR O-LINE GOT KILLED Y U WANT LESS MEN BACK IN COVERAGE." Well, fine, don't listen to me, listen to Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers on Wednesday said the best thing might be for coach Mike McCarthy and offensive coordinator Joe Philbin to let the front five on the offensive line fend for themselves.

"I think one of the things that happened last week was because of struggles (in protection) in Week 1, we’ve kept more guys in (to block)," Rodgers said. "Our backs were staying in a little bit longer, and so our stuff was all down the field because we didn’t have any of our check downs out.

"The push, hopefully, this is week is, ‘Hey you guys got to hold up up front.’ We need more options underneath the coverage. When they’re dropping off so far, you need some check downs."

It might seem counterintuitive that the guy who’s been getting killed — 10 sacks and 19 hits in two games — wants less protection, but the logic is that by keeping in running backs and tight ends less often, Rodgers will have more options to get the ball out quicker if he’s facing pressure. Against the Bengals, many of his throws were deep because there were so few short options.

*The shifting of the tight ends was interesting, and the tight ends did seem to do their job well in blocking, but it didn't matter with the big five in the middle committing mental error after mental error.

*Almost any time Marvin Jones motioned toward the line, Cal ran the ball and Jones blocked someone on the edge. Not such a great job this week.

*With T.J. Ward out with an injury, we did not test the deep middle at all. How much of that had to do with the wind I'm not sure, but Cal probably had chances to strike up if Riley has time to make his reads or if the O-line pass protects better. The receivers had single coverage on the secondary much of the game except on obvious passing down situations.

*We did not test the sidelines as much as I'd have liked to see. Every time Riley rolled out toward the sidelines he got a first down, and on the first play in the second half Tucker sprinted out for 50 yards on a throw right in the middle of the zone. So Oregon's going to kill us going outside? Let's do it too! Far too late an adaptation by Ludwig.

*Hydro indicated in his Minnesota postgame thoughts that Ludwig had created a whole set of new looks for the offense and there are plenty more blocking schemes in place that give defenses more looks to guard against. While all these new looks are neat and can throw good teams off balance, the fact is throwing in these new wrinkles forces your offense to depend even more on execution. As you can probably guess, no wrinkles and looks in the offense could've saved Cal from themselve on Saturday.

*It begs the question: Was Aliotti a step ahead the entire way? It might've felt that way in the end, but through the middle of the game I'd say Ludwig beat himself more than Aliotti did. The Bears played very conservatively trying to use their blocking to open it up, and we stubbornly kept on trying these long developing plays when it was clear the Cal O-line was off their game. Whether Aliotti knew about Ludwig's tendencies is up for debate, but it's safe to say the Oregon's front seven was masterful at confusing and taking apart Cal's blockers.

*I'd have liked to see more dumpoffs to Best (who we didn't screen or swing to once), or quick slants inside and hitches outside, anything to get the ball out of the pocket as quickly as possible. That Riley was still backing up into throwing routes like he had the New York Giants O-line in front of him reeks of obstinance by the coaching staff. When your O-line isn't playing well, adapt to the situation and make the best of it.

*That being said, I can't really lay the hammer down on Ludwig. The offensive line put up a FAIL, and even if he'd adapted and adjusted properly to the situation, that probably only changes the scoring margin from 39 to 19 or 25.

In either case, Marshall's got a lot of work to do before one of the best defenses in the country comes calling on Saturday. You could argue how much crowd noise, or getting confused by audibles, or just not being able to react to the Oregon defensive gameplan factored in, but the O-line did not execute, and Riley, Best, and Vereen paid the price. A performance like this against USC, and our offense is going to do something it's never done in the Tedford era--get shut out.

Possibly coming later: What's with the defensive meltdown? We'll see if I feel up to it.

Roll On: How Cal's Offense Can Attack Oregon's Defense

Avinash — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 21:41:29 -0000

I'm so relieved Pac-10 season is here.

It's not that I don't like the OOC schedule; it's always fun to face new teams, and gauge ourselves to other teams around the country. But it makes things easier for me in terms of figuring out offenses and defenses. There's a familiarity with breaking down Arizona that isn't there with Minnesota or even Maryland. Figuring out what type of coverage packages UCLA will throw your way with their excellent secondary, or whether Oregon State is going to gap-cancel the shit out of you, or how many times Oregon will hit you over and over again with their zone read--these things I can deal with, I've seen them before.

Plus speculating about what an offense or defense might or might not do sucks, since there's a good chance you're going to look real stupid by the end of the game. At least here, there's a much better chance of nailing the general gameplan.

Let's get the ball rolling, shall we? We start with Andy Ludwig's Cal offense versus Oregon and Nick Allioti's hard-hitting, ball-hawking, tackle-missing defense.

(Major thanks to ieeebear for cutting videos for this post, you can see them after the jump! He deserves half the credit for the post.)

Oregon's run defense versus Best, Vereen, and Cal's O-line

I can't really dissect this properly, because one player could be the difference between Cal getting bottled up or taking the Ducks to task. You should see him plenty in the reels after the jump.

Hydro mentioned after last year's game how Allotti loved to bring a defensive back to take out the running back. You can see several times the defensive back (usually the free safety, which usually meant TJ Ward) sizing up the hole, then at the moment he senses run, starts targeting like a heat-seeking missile. One of the times the safety missed was when Best broke free for that long gain, albeit it ended in a fumble.

TJ Ward's health is crucial to Oregon's success at containing the run. You can see from this clip above how crucial Ward was in containing Best and Vereen; his ability to sniff out the run and quickly plug the gap kept the running backs from breaking into space. The dropoff is considerable after Ward, and I don't know exactly how the Ducks safeties stack up behind Ward.

You can also see that Oregon hits hard, so Cal's runners have got to be ready to maintain control of that football. Three rushing turnovers last season nearly cost the Bears dearly.

Although Riley appears to be a much better passer than he was a few seasons ago, I expect Oregon to, at least at the outset, play to contain Best and Vereen I doubt we'll see much difference in strategy from last season, especially on 1st and 2nd downs when the probability of run and pass are approximately equal. For all their struggles this season in various areas, one place the Ducks have remained consistent is guarding the run, and you can see from the video that their front seven has been equal to the task of pushing around Cal's usually solid offensive line.

This season there hasn't been a big dropoff. Yes, Boise State gashed them for 164 yards, but they needed FIFTY NINE CARRIES to get there. Utah, Boise State and Purdue are all upper tier schools in rushing yards per carry, and Oregon held them well under their respective averages.

Oregon has held Cal the last two seasons to an average of 3.38 rushing yards per carry, well below our general rushing average. So they've pulled all the stops to contain Forsett in 2007 and Best in 2008. If the Ducks are expected to pull out the stops against the run, the Bears will have to strip them will have to be won through the air.

Cal pass protection versus Oregon pass rush (or How I Am So Fucking Relieved Nick Reed is in the pros).

Reed was a one man wrecking crew in last year's game. Mitchell Schwartz did well for us in relief last year at left tackle, and Reed just chowed him down like moo goo gai pan.

1) First clip, :11-Reed blows by Schwartz, forces Riley to throw the football like a Thanksgiving turkey. I'm not sure whether Riley's trying the Tim Tebow leap pass here. It's close though.
2) :35--Cameron Morrah probably should've blocked a little bit better on that play before moving into receiving mode, Schwartz didn't seem like he had any chance of taking him up and can only manage a few weak arm shoves before Reed targets Riley.
3) :52--Right side completely collapses. Three defenders get untouched to the quarterback, it's a miracle Longshore even got that pass to Tucker.
4) 1:17--Perfect spin technique by Reed to blow by Schwartz, breaks up what might've been a touchdown to Morrah (although a safety was coming in fast).
5) 1:55--Reed lined up to the bottom against Edwards, and he absolutely smokes him. Plus there was a holding call. Safe to say the O-line was scrambling at this point.
6) 2:12--Mitchell is again caught looking with the spin move. GRAPPLE HIM Mitchell.
7) 2:41--"Sorry Mr. Schwartz, I do not want to participate in this tango." Gets up, screen pass broken out.
8) 3:00--Next play, lines up on Edwards, gets in unimpeded, even if a second too late. Longshore gets twirled like a Twizzler.

Nate Longshore and Kevin Riley were dinged around plenty, as they forced bad throws into traffic, or took sacks they shouldn't have taken. He'll make his mark with the Seahawks soon enough.

This year, the roles are reversed. With Reed gone, the responsibility for pass rush was supposed to fall to Will Tukuafu. So far he's been quiet, with fifteen tackles, but none for a loss. Oregon's pass rush this season has been non-existent. The Ducks averaged nearly 3 sacks a game last season, tied for 9th in the country. This year, they only have four through the first three games, along with only three quarterback hurries. Opposing quarterbacks have had their time to throw so far.

Cal's pass protection, however, has only been slightly better than it was last season (on average in terms of sacks, giving up five sacks and several hurries early on. Hopefully with Tepper and a maturing Schwartz, they can protect damaging sacks on the edge. Kenny Rowe (who has 2.5 of Oregon's sacks from the defensive end slot) seems the likeliest to get pressure, so watch what he does against the tackles.

Oregon's pass defense vs. Kevin Riley and his receivers

Defensive coordinator Nick Allotti is not a favorite of Oregon fans. He didn't look exceptionally good after USC's 44-10 trouncing of the Ducks, where Sanchez burned Oregon for 332 yards, 3 touchdowns on 68% completion rate. Although some of it was cover packages, it was also a case of corners cheating to stop the runs, biting on the play-fakes and getting burned for only putting one free safety in deep coverage.

Luckily, neither quarterback for the Bears could throw that well last season. Against Cal you saw a lot of soft zones, a lot of coverage packages determined to keep Best or Vereen from breaking into the screen. On one occasion when Oregon played close up man coverage they were scorched for a touchdown.

(Note: Understand I'm not an expert on defense. If I made any errors in formation or strategy please correct me and I'll edit them in, and attribute you for the help.)

1) (0:05) I think this is a Cover 4 deep (corners are playing back, safeties too). Best way to attack this is the outside flats (between the hash marks and the sideline), and Riley finds a wide-open Tucker along the out of bounds line. This could also be zone coverage (much like what Gregory runs on passing downs), since the corner seems to be playing a particular zone, trying to make the quarterback complete the throw. Also he could be trying to prevent a long run from the quarterback.

2) (0:36) Again, Riley targets the sideline to Tucker, who makes a great adjustment on the ball

3) (1:02) I believe this is Cover 1 Free (free safety is back to watch both sides of the field, see the replay at 1:19). Oregon stacks. Riley checks off the receiver on the strong side, freezes the free safety (notice him trailing to the top, where Riley's eyes are focused), then goes back and find Ross with a perfect strike. It helps that Wlater Thurmond was slow in recovering to Ross's original move.

4) (1:32) Iffy interference call on Thurmond, who seemed to play Tucker very well on the play, but it does show the benefit of having a receiver who can elevate on a dime and make it tough for the ref to judge whether the defender came too early or not.

5) (1:56) 3-2 Dime package. Six defensive backs and Longshore routinely completes a 4th and 14 on man-to-man? Talmadge Jackson III had some real passive coverage on this one. This play surprised me the most. (Note: Jackson will be Oregon's other corner in this game).

6) (2:23) 4-1 Dime package. Again another great pass to the sidelines to Sean Young, as Oregon's defense seems determined to play their zones and dare Cal's quarterbacks to make that throw to the sidelines. So far Riley and Longshore have converted three crucial 3rd downs aiming at the outside flats, two that broke down the zones in the right places (one was just a great adjustment and catch by Tucker).

7) (3:02) This should be noted for all Nate-haters out there, but Longshore KILLED Oregon. He didn't have achieve greatness by any means (13 for 27, 1 TD), but over his career he threw for a solid 57% completion rate, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception. You can get a sense of how he did it from plays like this; his ability to break down zone defenses and read coverages was impeccable. Danzig has more on his 2006-2007 exploits here.

8) (3:50) Another break down of the zone coverage at the sidelines to Tucker. I'm guessing we might see this play a bit.

Note to self: Watch Verran Tucker (who I assume will be the #1 receiver) versus Walter Thurmond, who I'm guessing will be assigned to him. This is a critical assignment for Thurmond, who must bottle up Tucker on man packages so the rest of the coverage can focus more on Marvin Jones and Ross.

The Ducks have played aggressive, breaking up 19 passes (top 10 in the nation!), including four interceptions, but I'd be very surprised to see Aliotti utilize a man-on-man strategy and not go back to deep coverage zones. Riley isn't Sanchez 2008, but he has been capable of throwing the deep ball properly this season. Expect plenty of cover schemes on obvious passing downs, in addition to the base 4-3 Oregon runs.

If Ludwig can show the multiplicity that he displayed in last week, will Oregon's secondary be able to read and react? The last three seasons the Ducks have lost the Bears game in spite of slowing the run game. It's been their touted corners and safeties who haven't been able to finish off Cal's receivers.

If Kevin Riley can throw a precise, 63-65% completion rate against Oregon's zone coverages, or open up the deep routes, which will in turn force more defensive backs into the game, which will in turn allow the offensive line easier blocking...it's Duck season.

Coming soon: Breaking down Oregon's zone read.

Poll

Who has to be the best offensive performer for the Bears to beat Oregon?

Kevin Riley

145 votes

Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen

81 votes

The receivers (Tucker, Jones and Ross)

32 votes

The offensive line

111 votes

369 votes | Poll has closed

Morning Quack Fix: Ducks on SI Cover, Offense wins competition day, Ed Dickson busts out the third person

jtlight — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 14:26:20 -0000

Well, we're a mere 22 days away from kickoff, and fall camp is in full swing. So far, things look to be going very well. Both lines are very encouraging, which is a testament to abilities of Coaches Azzinaro and Greatwood. The expected stars (Thurmond, Tukuafu, Masoli, Blount, Holland, all linebackers) have looked as they should. Overall, it is a far cry from last year, when we had all sorts of questions regarding QB play (even before Costa's injury).

As you no doubt heard, two Ducks made the regional cover of Sports Illustrated's college football preview issues. And Coach Kelly will hopefully put to rest any jinx nonsense, stating, "You jinx yourself if you talk about that."
Yesterday was the first competition day for the practicing Ducks, and the offense WON THE DAY, coming back form a late hole with a series of completions from both Masoli and Costa to a number of different receivers. Even Kelly was surprised by the comeback. In injury news, Jeff Maehl, Tyrece Gaines and Diante Jackson are still hampered by knee injuries.
Also from the Register Guard, Adam Jude has a piece on a key position that needs replacement--rover, or as it has been known for years, "Chung." Looking to fill the postition is Talmadge Jackson III, following by Marvin Johnson. While Jackson has not played one bit of safety during his entire life, he's holding down the number one spot for the moment, though is being pushed hard, and will likely go to the last week of the offseason. However, Jackson has transitioned well, and is very smooth at the position, which could bode well for Oregon's passing defense this season.
eDuck has a recap of the 5th day of practice. A good emphasis was put on special teams, and the young kickers had a taste of a live rush, and it's noted that P Jackson Rice did very well. Meanwhile LaMichael James continues to be "lightning in a bottle" with his speed and agility, either running or receiving the ball, and the linebackers have been simply astounding. This article also has some more injury information, though it sounds like nothing should be a major concern at this point.
Watch out Boise State, Ed Dickson busted out the third person! He also said that Boise State "rubs him the wrong way," and though he doesn't care one bit what they're up to right now, they will get his full effort on Sept. 3rd. This seems to line up with the attitude that Kelly has instilled in the program, having the team always focus on the current task. Right now, it's time for fall camp. When it's time to worry about Boise, the team will. However, this article is more than just Dickson and Boise State, and talks a lot about Dickson's role in the program and how he's mentoring the younger players on the team, just as he was by Dante Rosario.
Ted Miller runs through Oregon's best case/worst case. Unfortunately, our best case ends with USC winning the national title, though having the Pac-10 beat the SEC in two BCS bowls would be pretty sweet. The worst case ends with an Emerald Bowl win, and...well, let's just call it some unoriginal situations that Mill concocted.
For some more realistic bowl projections, ESPN has started theirs, which are a weekly feature during the season. Mark Schlabach has Oregon in the Sun Bowl vs. Kansas, while Bruce Feldman has Oregon in the Holiday Bowl against Nebraska.

As always, leave any links or thoughts below. GO DUCKS!

Know thy Opponent 2009: Oregon Ducks

BoilerTMill — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 19:37:34 -0000

Last season there was a toss-up for our most exciting game. Was it the 32-26 double overtime loss to Oregon or the 48-42 shootout win over Michigan? Both games had their share of big plays, but I tend to lean toward the Oregon game. When Michigan came to town, no one was sure who was going to win in the battle of 2-6 teams. It was a fun shootout, but little else was on the line. Against Oregon, many Duck fans respected us, but expected a double-digit win. Judging by the comments left on my old Off the Tracks blog, we gained the respect of nearly every Oregon fan that day.

In the end, I dubbed the loss one of the most frustrating of the past few years. We had a ranked team on the ropes at home and were playing some of our best football in a long time only to have a couple of critical coaching errors cost us the game. Now we have the return trip to Autzen Stadium to face the Ducks again. Virtually no one outside of this blog is giving us any shot at all of winning the game. After last year though, I think this could be a very dangerous game for a Duck team that will likely begin the season in the top 15.

2008 Record: 10-3 (7-2 tied for second place in Pac-10)

Bowl result: Beat Oklahoma State 42-31 in Holiday Bowl

Blog Representation: Addicted to Quack, Duck Territory

Series with Purdue: Tied 1-1

Last Purdue win: 9/29/79 at Purdue 13-7

Last Oregon win: 9/13/08 at Purdue 32-26 2OT

Purdue fans wonder what might have been if Purdue had held on against Oregon last year.

Last Season for the Ducks:

I have become a pretty regular reader of Addicted to Quack. The general consensus of that excellent blog community is that injuries, specifically at the quarterback position, have cost the Ducks at least the Pac-10 title the past two seasons. Some would even say (and I agree) it cost them a shot at the national title in 2007. Oregon dropped just three games last season, and both Pac-10 losses came away from Autzen Stadium. Boise State surprised the Ducks 37-32 the week after we played them, but Oregon was still trying to settle its quarterback situation after Justin Roper got hurt against us. The Ducks open this coming season at Boise State in a game that many Duck fans are looking forward to. There was some bad blood last season between the schools, so our game with Oregon comes after a pretty hyped contest.

Oregon put some serious points on the board in the Pac-10, going 7-2 and earning a second place finish. It's only two losses were in games where the Ducks failed to score more than 16 points. USC asserted its dominance in a 44-10 win at the Coliseum, while California won a tight 26-16 home game. In four of Oregon's Pac-10 victories the Ducks cracked the 50 point barrier. The culmination was a 65-38 thrashing of Oregon State (in the Beavers' home stadium, no less) in the annual Civil War game that personally denied their rivals a trip to the Rose Bowl.

The Ducks are not afraid of an ambitious schedule this year. ESPN rated their non-conference schedule as the toughest in the Pac-10. Oregon goes to Boise State before facing Purdue and BCS bowl winner Utah. That's all before getting into a conference season that features USC. All of its tough conference games are at home, however. If Oregon gets through its non-conference slate undefeated is has a legitimate shot of finish the year unbeaten.

Oregon offense:

The Ducks had a pair of 1,000 yard rushers a season ago, while quarterback Jeremiah Masoli nearly became a third member of that group. LaGarrette Blount (1,002 yards, 17 TD's) will be the featured back with the departure of Jeremiah Johnson (1,201 yards, 13 TD's). Blount carried just 11 times against us last year, but he had 132 yards and two touchdowns. For the most part we actually kept him in check. 72 of his yards came on one play that set up a score in the second half. He did have the game winning touchdown at the end of the second overtime. Many pundits are lauding him as one of the best returning running backs in the nation. A JuCo transfer a year ago, Blount will make himself a lot of money with a good year in 2009.

A great 2009 isn't a guarantee, as the ATQ guys are certainly concerned about Blount's off the field attitude. There have been some concerns about his academics and level of fitness, but there are certainly no questions about his talent. As exhibited in last year's game, we can contain him for 10 plays only to have him bust out on the 11^th. As far as Oregon's other running backs, The ATQ guys do a fantastic job of outlining the prospects to replace Johnson in the above link. They are young without much experience, but are extremely talented, especially LaMichael James.

Oregon's quarterback situation was messy a year ago. Nate Costa was to be the starter, but a second straight ACL tear ended his season before it began. Justin Roper started against us, but got injured and only played sparingly the rest of the year. Roper transferred out of the program before spring football, and he was followed by Chris Harper, who also played a little at quarterback late in the year. That left just Masoli and sophomore Darron Thomas (who got significant minutes as the 4^th string guy against Boise due to injuries to Masoli and Roper) as the only experienced quarterbacks on the roster.

Last year's injuries could be a blessing to the Ducks. They allowed Masoli, who was third string going into the season, to emerge as the #1 starter. He got his first start against Boise State and improved greatly as the season went on. The junior ended up throwing for 1,744 yards and 13 touchdowns (against just five interceptions). He also ran for 718 yards and 10 touchdowns in Oregon's spread offense. Many believe that Harper is the best quarterback in the Pac-10, and he had little trouble grasping Oregon's complex spread offense a year ago.

Though Oregon prefers to run the ball, their passing game isn't too bad either. Jamere Holland is expected to become one of Oregon's top receivers, but he has limited game experience. He caught four passes for 53 yards a year ago, but more is expected of him this year. Jeffrey Maehl (39-421-5), and tight end Ed Dickson (35-508-3) are the two best returning receivers statistically. Senior Rory Cavaille is also listed as a starter on the depth chart, but he had just two catches for 12 yards and a score. The Ducks will do most of their work on the ground, but the receivers are just dangerous enough that we cannot completely ignore them. Dickson in particular was dangerous against us with 7 catches for 93 yards in last season's game.

One of the biggest question marks offensively for Oregon is its offensive line. In my earlier Q&A with Addicted to Quack, Dominic pointed out that their line lost a lot to graduation/the NFL and was banged up during spring ball. Projected starters C.E. Kaiser and Bo Thran were hurt during spring football and long-time center Max Unger was a second round pick of the Seattle Seahawks. The line projects to have some good size with everyone over 285 pounds. Its quickness will also be a factor, as it is necessary in their no huddle spread option attack. They will need to come together quickly, however. As we learned last year, offensive line issues can kill a season in a hurry if injuries keep you from putting a consistent group on the field.

Oregon Defense:

When you're scoring almost 42 points per game you often don't need much defense. Even so, the Ducks had a pretty good unit last year that held opponents to 28 points per game. Their secondary was among the best in the nation, but losses due to graduation meant hat much of this unit must be replaced. Fortunately for Oregon, the offense should give them plenty of margin for error in most games.

Kory Sheets had a 180 yard, 2 TD performance against Oregon last year in what may have been his best game as a Boilermaker. His first carry on the day was an 80 yard TD run, and we really should have given him the ball more as the day went on. Overall we ran for 201 yards as a team against Oregon. I'm sorry, but history shows there is absolutely no valid reason we should EVER lose when we rush for 200 yards as a team. The running game will be our strength to start the year, and we have to have a similar performance against Oregon to have any hope of winning in Autzen.

The first line of defense against the run will be an experienced defensive line full of upperclassmen. Senior end Will Tukuafu brings back 7.5 sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss. His numbers should go up with the departure of Nick Reed (13 sacks a year ago). Kenny Rowe, Brandon Bair, and Blake Ferras were not starters a year ago, but saw some spot action. Ferras is a 6'6", 290 pound space eater at defensive tackle that should make running between the tackles difficult.

Oregon's back seven is often split into a two linebacker, five defensive back nickel package. Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews are both juniors at the linebacker spots and both played in all 13 games last season. Paysinger was second on the team in tackles with 95 and added a pair of sacks and interceptions to his resume. Matthews had 67 tackles and two sacks as well. Neither player was a stranger at getting into the backfield. Matthews had 13 tackles for loss while Paysinger had 12.

Where Oregon is a little shaky is its secondary. We are lucky that our inexperience in the passing game is not facing their secondary from a year ago. Last season Jairus Byrd, Patrick Chung, and Walter Thurmond limited our passing game to 207 yards and picked off Curtis Painter twice. Only Thurmond returns from that trio, although he is one of the best cover corners in the nation. He had 66 tackles and a team high five interceptions a year ago. One of those interceptions was returned for a touchdown. Senior Willie Glasper will join him at the other corner position, bringing 21 tackles in reserve action from a year ago.

Oregon's defense features three safeties led by T.J. Ward. Ward led the team in tackles a year ago with 101, and he did finish with 5.5 tackles for loss. Ward likes to rove all over the field and is generally wherever the ball ends up. Talmadge Jackson and Eddie pleasant will move into the other starting roles. Pleasant is the lone sophomore listed as a starter for the defense full of juniors and seniors. Despite losing some serious talent a year ago, this is a very experienced defense.

Oregon Special Teams:

Senior Morgan Flint took over the kicking duties from a struggling Matt Evensen midway through last season. That is a bit ironic as Evensen and our own Chris Summers had a decent kicking day in the wind at Ross-Ade Stadium. Flint was 7 of 9 on the year, but only had a long of 39 yards. Tim Taylor will be the new punter after punting once for 39 yards last year. He may not be needed much with Oregon's offense.

As we learned, Oregon's return game is almost as dangerous as its offense. Jairus Byrd's punt return for a TD was a game changer last year, but the blocking opened a great hole for him. Redshirt freshman Kenjon Barner appears to have made enough of an impression before setting foot on the field to have won the punt returner's job. Thurmond will once again serve as the primary kickoff returner after returning 21 kicks for 528 yards last year. He had a long return of 91 yards, but it was not for a TD.

Defensively Oregon's kick coverage was among the best in the nation last year. They limited teams to less than 20 yards per return. Their punt coverage wasn't so good, however, giving up 12.5 yards per return and one touchdown.

Intangibles:

This is the second straight game we will be facing a brand new head coach. Chip Kelly is taking over for long-time head coach Mike Belotti in a succession manner very similar to our own from Tiller to Hope. Do not expect a step back. Kelly was the offensive coordinator last year and should keep things running very smoothly.

I like that this game comes immediately after a tough road trip to Boise State and before the Utah game. It can be a bit of a trap game. It is Oregon's home opener, but if a godawful Indiana team can go out and win in Autzen why can't we? Sure, the 2004 Hoosiers were helped by seven Oregon turnovers, but we're going to be far better than that Indiana team. We might need only five. Seriously though, The Boise State game could take a lot out of Oregon. A win over the Broncos could cause a little complacency. A loss might bring them down a bit.

Still, I expect to have 100% of Oregon's attention. We gained their respect last fall and their fans know not to expect an easy win like they did last year. This will be the first road game for coach Hope and our farthest road game since the 2006 trip to Hawaii. It will be interesting to see how we respond to those factors.

Game Outlook:

I firmly believe the coaching staff cost us last year's game. We got conservative when we should have been aggressive, as evidenced by settling for a tough field goal at the end of regulation. We were aggressive when we should have been conservative, as evidenced by throwing an interception just before halftime instead of running out the clock. That interception led to three points, but they were three critical points that made it a two possession game at the break.

No one expects us to be competitive in this game. Of our 12 games, it is probably the least likely one we will win. I am planning on going to the game to see the beautiful scenery and experience what is supposed to be a fantastic game day atmosphere.

I am also going to watch us win.

We can absolutely win this game. I have maintained for a long time that I feel we will pull the upset. Coach Hope has changed the attitude of the program. I have little doubt he will have our guys believing they can win the game. If we stay committed whatever is working (likely the run) and the defense continues to show improvement we will hang around in the game we're not supposed to win. New defensive coordinator Donn Landholm puts an emphasis on creating turnovers too. If we can cause a few they will help greatly as well. I like that our defensive line and secondary should be huge positives against a team that mixes it up with the run. This will be the ultimate test for them.

Prediction:

We are going to beat one team we have no business beating in 2009, so why not start now? I may be going out on a thin limb here, but I have been saying for too long that we can pull this upset off. We can end our losing streak against ranked teams against the team it should have ended against last year.

The concerns in the secondary and along the offensive line for Oregon are two key factors. As much as I like and respect the Addicted to Quack guys, I can't help but point out that injuries, specifically ACL injuries, have played a major role in each of the last two years. I certainly don't wish ill will on them, but even if it is simple bad luck this is a team that has shown that injuries will often be an issue even early on.

We also didn't play that badly defensively a year ago. Yes we gave up 503 yards, but we held them to just one offensive touchdown in regulation. We ended up with two interceptions and, if not for Painter's killer pick before halftime and Byrd punt return, we probably would have won going away. The defense did a great job of keeping them out of the end zone, and it should be even better this year. If it can take advantage of an offensive line that is still gelling it could be a huge equalizer.

I like that this will be after an emotional Boise State game. I like that no one gives us any chance to win. I like that our running game will be sneaky good against a team we ran well against last year. I like that their secondary isn't quite as good as last year, giving our young receivers a small break. I like that coach Hope absolutely believes we can win this game. I'll probably be wrong on September 12^th, but at least I'll go on record as being wrong well in advance.

Based simply on a good feeling, Purdue pulls off a shocking upset and shows that the new coaching staff is indeed a change from the old. If I am wrong, at least I will get to experience a great atmosphere with some of the best bloggers in the game when I meet some of the Addicted to Quack guys. Purdue 32, Oregon 31

Football Spring Preview: Secondary

jtlight — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 18:17:49 -0000

Over the next week, before spring practice starts on March 30th, we'll be taking a look at each section of the team, assessing its strengths and weaknesses, and looking at any battles that will be taking place. Today we look at the secondary.

Ah, and now we get to the fun part--the part of the team that could end up determining whether this team is good, or great. The secondary started last season with incredibly high expectations, and failed to live up to them.

There are many reasons for the performance. Injuries and lack of depth played a role, but, in my mind, the #1 contributing factor to last year's poor pass defense was the play from the free safety position. While TJ Ward was able to hit people, he had serious coverage issues. This was deeply apparent in the USC game. After that game, adjustments were made to limit the deep ball, which achieved the desired result, but this opened up crossing routes and a lot of short passing options for opposing quarterbacks.

The overall results of this strategy when you compare 2008 to 2007 are incredibly interesting. Opponent passer rating improved marginally from 114 to 123, due mainly to a decrease in interceptions, while opponent yards per pass attempt stayed at 6.6.

But where this strategy became apparent was in opponent 3rd down conversion, which jumped from 32.5% to 39.4%. Afraid of the explosion plays, Oregon backed off. Without a safety that could cover the field and give help to beat corners, Byrd and Thurmond had to play more conservatively than they had in the past, and that meant giving opposing wide receivers room to prevent the big play.

And while a lot of duck fans want to sit back and bash Aliotti for the defensive deficiencies, last season was simply a case of picking your poison. The secondary did not have the ability to take away all passing options, so they chose to shut down one aspect of the passing game. And that they did rather effectively.

This is all been a long way of saying, that this spring, we must see development of the safeties, or we'll see the same outcome as last season.

Known Starters:

Walter Thurmond and TJ Ward are the only sure starters at this point. With an offseason to heal up, Thurmond should be in top form in the fall. And with Ward's ability to stop the run and get the big hit, Chung's absence won't be felt that greatly.

The Competition:

The other spots could be filled by a number of players. Most likely opposite Thurmond will be Talmadge Jackson, who will be a junior. Jackson was the top reserve cornerback last year, and got a lot of playing time. While no Byrd, he can definitely do an adequate job.

However, he will be pushed by a number of other players. Senior Willie Glasper may finally have a shot at winning a starting job. Also, after redshirting in his second year at Oregon, Anthony Gildon could be ready to make an impact. He's 6-1 and has a 35.5" vertical leap, so he has the physical ability to have an impact this year. Redshirt Freshman Kenjon Barner, who impressed on the scout team last year, may get a shot as well. Overall, there is a surprising amount of depth at the cornerback position (before even thinking about incoming high schooler Cliff Harris), and I'm fairly certain we'll get at least adequate play from the position.

However, where the whole secondary rests is what type of play Oregon gets from the safety position. If Oregon goes another year without a safety that can adequately handle pass coverage responsibilities, it will be a long year for the cornerbacks, who will have no room for error.

The top two players fighting for the spot will be junior Marvin Johnson and sophomore Javes Lewis. Johnson should be all recovered from knee surgery in time for practice, so this will be the battle to watch. Redshirt freshman John Boyett may also vie for the position.

Conclusion:

While the dropoff should not be all that significant from last season, there is definitely a potential for improvement. But for that to happen, we must see progress from the safety position this spring. Pass coverage by the safeties will be key, and they must be able to help out the cornerbacks when the need arises.

This will be the position unit to watch this spring, and will go a long way in determining just how high this team can go next season.

GO DUCKS!